Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

18 papers in the last four weeks, up 200% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 139

May 29, 2026cs.LG

Universal Decision Learners

Many theories of decision making -- planning, reinforcement learning, causal intervention, online learning, and game-theoretic equilibrium -- turn local information into globally coherent behavior. This paper proposes a common categorical formulation: a Universal Decision Learner (UDL) extends a partially specified decision functor from observed contexts to new contexts by a pair of universal constructions. Left Kan extensions express rollout, aggregation, and candidate generation; right Kan extensions express consistency, constraint satisfaction, and fixed-point semantics. The central claim is not that every decision problem has the same algorithm, but that many decision formalisms instantiate the same universal problem: extend local behavioral data canonically, then characterize the globally coherent extensions. We give the abstract UDL construction, prove its universal comparison property, define Kan-invariant behavioral equivalence and minimal abstractions, and show how Bellman equations, planning recursions, causal interventions, online regret, and equilibria arise as special cases. The supplementary material develops the reinforcement-learning specialization in more detail.

Sridhar Mahadevan

Adobe Research San Jose, CA · Academic affiliation: Research Professor, University of Massachusetts, Amherst

Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 28, 2026cs.IT

Support sufficiency as action-sufficient compression: a single-cycle rate-regret formulation

Robust decision-making requires compression. A system that forms a rich support state cannot usually preserve its full structure at the point of action. It must retain only those distinctions needed to act, verify, abstain, or defer under the current consequence geometry. This paper formalizes support sufficiency as action-sufficient compression. Let

H

denote a full support state,

\mathcal{A}

a finite action set, and

Z

a consequence geometry specifying payoff structure. For fixed

Z

, the coarsest exactly action-sufficient compression is the quotient of support space by policy equivalence. Two support states may be merged exactly when they require the same optimal action. This clarifies why content-only and scalar-confidence-only arbitration fail whenever their induced partitions cross action boundaries. Approximate sufficiency is then defined by bounded expected policy regret. In the finite single-cycle setting, this yields a rate-regret problem with source

H

, reproduction alphabet

\mathcal{A}

, and distortion given by consequence-sensitive regret. The optimal stochastic action channel inherits the standard rate-distortion Gibbs form, applied here to support states with regret distortion. The contribution is interpretive: action adequacy is distinguished from reconstruction fidelity, information-bottleneck prediction, and rational inattention. Robust single-cycle arbitration does not require preserving all support, but it does require preserving the distinctions that consequence geometry makes action-relevant.

Mark Walsh

Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 25, 2026cs.AI

Managing Uncertainty in LLM-Generated Procedural Knowledge for Virtual Laboratory Planning

Educational virtual laboratories can make experimental training more scala-ble, adaptive, and accessible, especially when students have limited access to physical laboratory facilities. However, authoring new simulated laboratory procedures remains costly: educators must describe new equipment, define how instruments and materials interact, and specify valid procedural flows that can be executed or assessed inside the virtual environment. Large lan-guage models can assist in this authoring process by generating detailed ex-perimental procedures, but their output should not be treated as directly exe-cutable plans. They may omit necessary actions, arrange steps in the wrong order, or produce instructions that are logically incorrect or incompatible with the laboratory equipment. This paper presents a prototype framework for managing uncertainty in LLM-generated procedural knowledge for virtu-al laboratory planning. The framework aims to reduce procedural uncertainty by using structured domain representations and uncertain LLM-generated state-transition samples to extract candidate procedural rules, transform them into explicit and inspectable constraints, and use them to repair uncertain procedural steps. Although the motivating domain refers to educational vir-tual laboratories, the underlying problem is more general: managing uncer-tain procedural knowledge for action planning in structured interactive envi-ronments. We illustrate the approach in a virtual laboratory domain involving laboratory instruments, containers, tools, and material-transfer actions.

Polychronis Karpodinis, Dimitris Kalles

School of Science and Technology, Hellenic Open University, Patras 26335, Greece

LLM Planning Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 25, 2026cs.LG

Goal-driven Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design for Robust Decision-Making Under Model Uncertainty

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) selects experiments to maximize information gain about model parameters. However, in decision-critical settings, reducing parameter uncertainty does not necessarily improve downstream decisions, as only specific parameter directions relevant to the objective truly matter. We propose GoBOED, a goal-driven BOED framework that directly optimizes experimental designs for a specified decision-making objective. GoBOED combines an amortized variational posterior surrogate with a differentiable convex decision layer, enabling gradient-based design optimization that is fully decision-focused. We theoretically show that GoBOED gradients are insensitive to parameter directions irrelevant to the decision objective, providing a formal justification for why goal-driven design achieves equivalent decision quality over a wider set of experimental designs than information-gain maximization. Empirically, across source localization, epidemic management, and pharmacokinetic control, GoBOED identifies designs that better align with downstream decision objectives and reveals that near-optimal design windows are substantially wider than those predicted by goal-agnostic BOED approaches.

Jinwoo Go, Xiaoning Qian, Byung-Jun Yoon

Computing & Data Sciences, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY · Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX · Department of Computer Science & Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Bayesian Experimental Design Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 22, 2026cs.LG

Infra-Bayesian Reinforcement Learning Agents Outperform Classical RL For Worst-Case Robustness

Classical reinforcement learning assumes the agent interacts with a fixed environment whose behavior does not depend on the agent's policy. This assumption breaks down in non-realizable settings where other actors might anticipate the agent's behavior, including environments crucial to AI safety, where the agent interacts with predictors, humans, other AI agents, and institutions. In such settings, the agent's model class fails to capture the world in which it operates. Under such misspecification, classical Bayesian methods can produce confidently wrong posteriors, unreliable decisions, and unbounded regret, as realizability fails to obtain. Infra-Bayesianism is a decision-theoretic framework that addresses these failures by distinguishing ordinary probabilistic uncertainty, where priors can be reasonably chosen, from Knightian uncertainty, where no grounds exist for the construction of such a prior. It does so by evaluating actions on their worst-case outcomes, rather than from posterior expectations or weighted averaging. We present the first proof-of-concept implementation of an infra-Bayesian reinforcement learning architecture for finite-outcome stateless decision problems. Our agent maintains a set of imprecise hypotheses, updates them using infra-Bayesian conditioning, and selects actions by maximizing worst-case expected value. We apply this implementation of the infra-Bayesian maximin decision process to an environment with Knightian uncertainty, and demonstrate a lower worst-case regret as compared to classical reinforcement learning agents. We also investigate Newcomb's problem and show that the infra-Bayesian agent picks the optimal strategy, outperforming classical decision theory agents. Our results provide a step towards reinforcement learning agents that remain robust under model misspecification and policy-dependent uncertainty.

Manish Aryal, Faiyaz Azam, Agnivo Banerjee +11

Purdue University · Carnegie Mellon University · WorldQuant University +11

Reinforcement Learning Model Misspecification Robust RL Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 19, 2026cs.AI

ECUAS $_n$ : A family of metrics for principled evaluation of uncertainty-augmented systems

In high-stakes automated decision-making, access to predictive uncertainty is essential for enabling users -- human or downstream systems -- to accept or reject predictions based on application-specific cost trade-offs. Such uncertainty-augmented (UA) systems -- i.e., systems that output both predictions and uncertainty scores -- are currently being assessed in the literature in a variety of ways, using separate metrics to evaluate the predictions and the uncertainty scores, setting a cost function with a fixed rejection cost or integrating over a coverage-risk curve. We argue that these evaluation approaches are inadequate for assessing overall performance of the UA system for decision making under uncertainty and propose a novel family of metrics, ECUAS

_n

, formulated as proper scoring rules for the task of interest. The parameter

n

controls the trade-off between the cost of incorrect predictions and imperfect uncertainties depending on the needs of the use-case. We demonstrate the advantages of the ECUAS

_n

metrics both theoretically and empirically, through experiments on diverse classification and generation datasets, including a manually annotated subset of TriviaQA.

Lautaro Estienne, Erik Ernst, Matías Vera +2

School of Engineering, UBA, Argentina · ICC, CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina · LISN, CNRS, Université Paris-Saclay, France +4

Uncertainty Quantification Proper Scoring Rules Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 18, 2026cs.RO

Confidence-Gated Robot Autonomy: When Does Uncertainty Actually Help?

Robotic systems often use predictive uncertainty to decide whether to act autonomously or defer to a fallback policy. In threshold-gated autonomy, uncertainty matters mainly through its ability to rank likely errors. Standard metrics such as expected calibration error and AUROC do not directly test whether uncertainty changes act/defer decisions. We therefore evaluate uncertainty using Spearman rank correlation, paired bootstrap equivalence testing, and act/defer agreement. Across three temporal activity-recognition benchmarks, we find a dataset-dependent competence regime below which uncertainty provides a weak and unstable error ranking. Above this regime, softmax heuristics, MC Dropout, and ensembles produce similar gating behavior, while threshold choice has a much larger effect on execution outcomes. A multi-seed embodied simulation shows the same pattern for collision rate and cost once realized autonomy is matched. Under temporal covariate shift, ranking quality remains stable, but fine grained semantic OOD detection remains near chance. These results suggest that simple uncertainty proxies can suffice for selective gating once the base model is competent, but not for semantic novelty detection.

Johannes A. Gaus, Jhon P. F. Charaja, Daniel Haeufle

Hertie Institute for Clinical Brain Research & Center for Integrative Neuroscience, University of Tübingen, Germany

Uncertainty Quantification Selective Prediction Robotics Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 17, 2026cs.CE

Bayesian-Monte Carlo Schedule Updating for Construction Digital Twins: A Probabilistic Framework for Dynamic Project Forecasting

Construction projects frequently experience schedule delays and forecasting uncertainty due to variability in labor productivity, material availability, weather conditions, and project coordination. Conventional deterministic scheduling methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM) assume fixed activity durations and therefore cannot adequately represent dynamic project uncertainty. This study presents a Bayesian-Monte Carlo probabilistic schedule updating framework for construction digital twin environments. The proposed methodology integrates stochastic activity-duration modeling, Bayesian recursive updating, Monte Carlo simulation, and uncertainty propagation within a unified computational framework for adaptive schedule forecasting. Activity durations are modeled using lognormal probability distributions and continuously updated through Bayesian inference as new project observations become available. Monte Carlo simulation is then used to propagate updated uncertainty throughout project networks and generate probabilistic completion-time forecasts, delay-risk estimates, and activity criticality measures. Simulation experiments using PSPLIB benchmark project networks demonstrate that the proposed framework improves forecasting accuracy and uncertainty representation compared with deterministic CPM and static probabilistic scheduling approaches. The framework further supports adaptive project forecasting through integration of BIM reports, drone observations, IoT telemetry, productivity logs, and site monitoring data.

Atena Khoshkonesh, Mohsen Mohammadagha, Vinayak Kaushal +1

1* M.S. Graduate, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA. · 2Ph.D. Researcher, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA. · 3Associate Professor of Instruction, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX 76019, USA.

Probabilistic Forecasting Digital Twins Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 17, 2026cs.CL

BELIEF: Structured Evidence Modeling and Uncertainty-Aware Fusion for Biomedical Question Answering

Biomedical question answering often requires decisions from retrieved literature whose relevance, quality, and support for candidate answers are uneven. Most retrieval-augmented large language model (LLM) methods feed this literature to the model as flat text, leaving evidence reliability and remaining uncertainty largely implicit. We propose BELIEF, a structured evidence modeling and uncertainty-aware fusion framework for closed-set biomedical question answering. Rather than treating retrieved documents as undifferentiated context, BELIEF converts them into evidence objects that record clinical attributes, source quality, question relevance, support strength, and the associated candidate hypothesis. These evidence objects provide a shared basis for two complementary reasoning paths. The symbolic path constructs reliability-weighted basic probability assignments based on Dempster--Shafer (D-S) theory over a finite answer space and performs uncertainty-aware symbolic evidence fusion to estimate belief and residual uncertainty. The neural path uses the same structured evidence for LLM-based semantic inference, while a reliability-aware arbitration module reconciles the symbolic and neural outputs according to belief strength, uncertainty, evidence reliability, and semantic consistency. Experiments on PubMedQA, MedQA, and MedMCQA with five general-purpose LLM backbones show that BELIEF obtains the best result in 25 of 30 backbone--dataset--metric settings. Comparisons with biomedical-domain models indicate that BELIEF is competitive on MedQA and MedMCQA, while specialized biomedical pretraining remains advantageous on PubMedQA. Ablation, complementarity, uncertainty-stratified, and cost analyses further show that BELIEF improves retrieved-evidence utilization by making evidence structure, path disagreement, and decision uncertainty explicit.

Chang Zong, Hao Ning, Siliang Tang +2

Healthcare Evidence-Grounded Reasoning Dempster-Shafer Theory Biomedical QA LLM Uncertainty Estimation Medical LLMs+1

May 16, 2026cs.AI

Evidential Information Fusion on Possibilistic Structure

Dempster's rule is a fundamental tool for combining belief functions from distinct and reliable sources. However, its intersection-based semantics imposes strong structural restrictions, which limits its flexibility in handling complex source states and diverse information fusion scenarios. To overcome this limitation, we propose a reversible transformation, derived from the isopignistic principle, between belief functions and a possibilistic structure defined on the power set. In this transformation, the relationships among subsets are explicitly characterized by a belief evolution network, which provides a more flexible representation of evidential information beyond the conventional mass function structure. On this basis, we further introduce the triangular norm family to develop a general and adaptive evidential information fusion framework. Unlike fusion methods rooted in Dempster semantics, the proposed framework supports more flexible combination behaviors and exhibits advantages in non-distinct source fusion, conflict management, parametric combination design, and heterogeneous information fusion.

Qianli Zhou, Ye Cui, Zhen Li +2

School of Electronics and Information, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1H9, Canada · China Mobile Information Technology Center, Beijing, 100029, China +4

Dempster-Shafer Theory Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 16, 2026cs.MA

Dynamic Deployment of Mobile Charging Trucks During Natural Disaster Evacuation: An Offline-to-Online Framework

During large-scale evacuations, concentrated electric vehicle (EV) charging demand can overload fixed charging stations (FCSs), leading to prolonged waiting time and increased risk exposure. To address this challenge, this study proposes dynamically deploying mobile charging trucks (MCTs) to complement FCSs, and develops an Adaptive Risk-aware MCT Deployment (ARMD) framework for real-time operation. It divides the MCT deployment into two problems: risk-aware allocation of MCTs among FCSs and dynamic routing of MCTs to the assigned FCSs, and solves them under an offline-to-online paradigm. The resource allocation problem is formulated as a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process, and a multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO)-based policy is developed to coordinate multiple MCTs under decentralized observations. The policy is pre-trained offline in an evacuation simulator and adaptively refined online according to current evacuation context. For routing, a spatio-temporal travel time predictor is developed to support rolling-horizon route updates. The proposed framework is evaluated in a simulated hurricane evacuation environment built using real-world data from Hillsborough County, Florida. Experiments show that ARMD consistently outperforms offline optimization, online heuristic dispatch, and rolling-horizon optimization in reducing risk exposure. For demand perturbation scenarios, ARMD reduces average risk exposure by up to 71.1%, relative to the baseline without MCTs. In the case of fixed e-vehicle charging infrastructure or road link failures, ARMD achieves 39.3% to 60.5% reduction in average risk exposure, with its advantages becoming more pronounced as the severity of disruption increases. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of ARMD in enhancing mobile charging operations for realistic scenarios of uncertain evacuation conditions.

Rui Ma, Zilin Bian, Kaan Ozbay

New York University · Rochester Institute of Technology

Electric Vehicle Charging Vehicle Routing Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 15, 2026cs.LG

Boundedly Rational Meta-Learning in Sequential Consumer Choice

Many consumer decisions are repeated choices under uncertainty. Standard models capture these decisions using Bayesian learning and dynamic programming: consumers update beliefs from feedback and use those beliefs to guide future choices. In many markets, however, learning does not restart when consumers enter a new context: prior experience with a brand, product, or provider can shape beliefs in later, related decisions. We study this cross-context knowledge transfer, or meta-learning, in sequential choice. We design a hierarchical laboratory task in which participants repeatedly choose among airlines across routes and observe noisy binary outcomes. Reduced-form evidence shows that participants improve not only within routes, but also across routes: they choose better airlines earlier in later routes and reduce pseudo-regret. To identify the mechanism behind this transfer, we compare human choices to a no-transfer benchmark and a fully integrated Bayesian meta-learning benchmark. In particular, we introduce a class of boundedly rational meta dynamic programming policies, BRMDP(D), that approximate full integration using a limited number of hyper-posterior draws, denoted by D. Trial-by-trial likelihood comparisons show that low-D boundedly rational meta-learning, especially BRMDP(1), fits participant behavior better than both no transfer and fully integrated Bayesian transfer. Consumers, therefore, transfer brand-level regularities across contexts, but through coarse representations of prior uncertainty. The findings imply that models of consumer learning should allow for approximate cross-context transfer, and that managerial counterfactuals based on either no-transfer or fully integrated learning can be misleading.

Mehrzad Khosravi, Max Kleiman-Weiner, Hema Yoganarasimhan

University of Washington

Meta-Learning Sequential Decision Making Discrete Choice Modeling Bayesian Decision Theory Bounded Rationality Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 14, 2026cs.LG

Bounded-Rationality, Hedging, and Generalization

A learner does not only fit data; it also determines how strongly the training sample may shape its output and how much distortion it can hedge. We study this relation as a bounded-rational decision problem whose primitive object is the induced channel from samples to outputs. The learner's response law determines which changes in this channel are cheap or costly, and therefore induces both a lower tradeoff curve between training loss and sample dependence and a matched upper certificate curve. When the response law is represented by an

f

-divergence regularizer, these curves live in the regularizer's native information geometry, with KL as the special case corresponding to Shannon mutual information. We show how the hedge and the two curves can be recovered from black-box behavior by observing responses to scaled losses and local loss perturbations. In learning, population loss is empirical loss plus the distortion induced by the particular training sample. The recovered hedge gives a practical certificate when it covers that distortion. Thus generalization is treated as a testable hedging property of the learner's own response law.

Pedro A. Ortega

Daios Technologies

Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds Bounded Rationality Decision-Making under Uncertainty Generalization Bounds

May 13, 2026cs.AI

Modeling Bounded Rationality in Drug Shortage Pharmacists Using Attention-Guided Dynamic Decomposition

Hospital pharmacists make high-stakes decisions to mitigate drug shortages under uncertainty, time pressure, and patient risk. Interviews revealed that pharmacists focus attention on a small subset of drugs, limiting cognitive effort to the most urgent cases. Motivated by these findings, we formalize a bounded-rational, attention-guided decision framework that dynamically decomposes drugs into a subset for high-cost reasoning and a complementary subset for low-cost monitoring. We develop two agents: an Expert Agent that applies attention weights derived from pharmacist interviews, and a Learner Agent that adapts attention allocation over time through experience. Across simulated scenarios spanning short to long horizons, we show that attention-guided planning supports stable decision-making without complete state reasoning. These results suggest that a primary decision is not what action to take, but where to allocate cognitive effort, and that attention-guided, satisficing strategies can reduce problem complexity while maintaining stable performance.

Yaniv Eliyahu Amiri, Noah Chicoine, Jacqueline Griffin +1

Khoury College of Computer Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA · Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA · Department of Psychology, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA

Computational Cognitive Modeling Clinical Decision-Making Model-Based Planning Bounded Rationality Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 13, 2026cs.AI

Adaptive mine planning under geological uncertainty: A POMDP framework for sequential decision-making

Strategic mine production scheduling under geological uncertainty is conventionally formulated as a stochastic optimization problem in which a fixed extraction sequence and routing decisions are computed ex ante. This plan-driven paradigm treats uncertainty as passive: decisions are hedged across geological scenarios, but planning does not anticipate how future observations will inform future decisions. We propose a different perspective by formulating mine scheduling as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), in which extraction and routing decisions are made sequentially with planning explicitly integrating the expectation of future belief updates. To achieve computational tractability, we introduce a hybrid SA-POMDP architecture that combines simulated annealing-based (SA) value approximation with ensemble-based belief updating via ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA). At each decision epoch, candidate actions are evaluated through their expected long-term value under the current belief, and the belief is updated as mining observations are assimilated. This yields an adaptive policy rather than a fixed plan. We evaluate the framework on a copper-gold open-pit mining complex with multiple processing destinations. Under a statistically consistent prior, the SA-POMDP reduces the expectation-reality gap from 22.3% to 4.6%, improving realized NPV by USD8.4M relative to one-shot stochastic optimization. Under systematic prior misspecification of 10%, the adaptive framework outperforms static planning by up to USD44.6M (36.9%), demonstrating structural robustness beyond scenario hedging. These results show that sequential belief updating transforms geological uncertainty from a passive constraint into an active component of value creation.

Hamza Khalifi, Jef Caers, Yassine Taha +2

Geology & Sustainable Mining Institute (GSMI), University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (UM6P), 43150, Benguerir, Morocco · Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

Sequential Decision Making Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 13, 2026cs.AI

Unweighted ranking for value-based decision making with uncertainty

As intelligent systems are increasingly implemented in our society to make autonomous decisions, their commitment to human values raises serious concerns. Their alignment with human values remains a critical challenge because it can jeopardise the integrity and security of citizens. For this reason, an innovative human-centred and values-driven approach to decision making is required. In this work, we introduce the Fuzzy-Unweighted Value-Based Decision Making (FUW-VBDM) framework, where agents incorporate both quantitative and qualitative criteria to generate human-centred decisions. We also address the normative bias introduced by stakeholders with arbitrary weights by removing prior weights and introducing a fuzzy domain of decision variables defined for a score function. This concept allows us to generalise any VBDM problem as the search for feasible solutions when optimising the score in the weight domain. To provide a solution to FUW-VBDM, we present Rankzzy, a customizable unweighted ranking method that integrates fuzzy-based reasoning to quantify uncertainty. We mathematically prove the consistency of the Rankzzy for any admissible configuration selected by stakeholders. We show the applicability of our method through an illustrative case study, which we also use as a running example. The evaluation conducted indicates a reduced computational cost in large-scale value-based decision-making problems and a strong rank performance regarding existing approaches when employing the aggregation via Pythagorean means.

Aarón López García, Natalia Criado, Jose Such

Departament de Matemátiques per a l’Economia i l’Empresa, Facultat d’Economia, Universitat de Valéncia · Valencian Research Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Universitat Politècnica de València

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Human-AI Decision Making Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 13, 2026cs.LG

Delightful Exploration

Most exploration algorithms search broadly until uncertainty is resolved. When the action space is too large to resolve within budget, practitioners default to

\varepsilon

-greedy, which bounds disruption but spends its override blindly. We introduce \textit{Delight-gated exploration} (DE), a host--override rule that spends exploratory actions only when their prospective delight (expected improvement times surprisal) exceeds a gate price. This practical heuristic recovers a classical result: Pandora's reservation-value rule for costly search, with surprisal setting the effective inspection cost. Resolved arms exit the gate, fresh arms shut off above a prior-determined threshold, and selected linear-bandit overrides consume finite information budget. Across Bernoulli bandits, linear bandits, and tabular MDPs, the same hyperparameters transfer without retuning, and DE shows much weaker regret growth than Thompson Sampling and

\varepsilon

-greedy in the tested unresolved regimes. Delight improves acting for the same reason it improves learning: it prices scarce resources by the product of upside and surprisal.

Ian Osband

Google DeepMind

Multi-Armed Bandits Value of Information RL Exploration Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 12, 2026cs.AI

Missingness-MDPs: Bridging the Theory of Missing Data and POMDPs

We introduce missingness-MDPs (miss-MDPs), a novel subclass of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that incorporates the theory of missing data. A miss-MDP is a POMDP whose observation function is a missingness function, specifying the probability that individual state features are missing (i.e., unobserved) at a time step. The literature distinguishes three canonical missingness types: missing (1) completely at random (MCAR), (2) at random (MAR), and (3) not at random (MNAR). Our planning problem is to compute near-optimal policies for a miss-MDP with an unknown missingness function, given a dataset of action-observation trajectories. Achieving such optimality guarantees for policies requires learning the missingness function from data, which is infeasible for general POMDPs. To overcome this challenge, we exploit the structural properties of different missingness types to derive probably approximately correct (PAC) algorithms for learning the missingness function. These algorithms yield an approximate but fully specified miss-MDP that we solve using off-the-shelf planning methods. We prove that, with high probability, the resulting policies are epsilon-optimal in the true miss-MDP. Empirical results confirm the theory and demonstrate superior performance of our approach over two model-free POMDP methods.

Joshua Wendland, Markel Zubia, Roman Andriushchenko +6

1Ruhr University Bochum · 2Brno University of Technology · 3Radboud University Nijmegen +2

Markov Models Learning with Missing Data Model-Based Planning Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 8, 2026cs.LG

MoMo: Conditioned Contrastive Representation Learning for Preference-Modulated Planning

Temporally contrastive representation learning induces a latent structure capable of reducing long-horizon planning to inference in a low-dimensional linear system. However, existing contrastive planning work learns a single latent geometry which cannot distinguish multiple valid behaviors trading task efficiency against risk exposure for the same start-goal query. We introduce MoMo, a preference-conditioned contrastive planner allowing a scalar user preference to continuously modulate plan conservativeness at inference time, without retraining. MoMo learns a joint conditioning of the representation geometry and latent prediction operator via Feature-Wise Linear Modulation and low-rank neural modulation, respectively. We show that our formulation preserves the probability density ratio encoded in the representation space that is required for inference-driven contrastive planning, further retaining its inference-time efficiency. Across six environments, MoMo smoothly adapts plan safety according to user preferences, yielding improved temporal and preferential consistency over state augmentation baselines.

Yusuf Syed, Viraj Parimi, Brian Williams

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Contrastive Learning Model-Based Planning Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 8, 2026cs.LG

Learning Polyhedral Conformal Sets for Robust Optimization

Robust optimization (RO) provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, but its performance critically depends on the choice of the uncertainty set. While large sets ensure reliability, they often lead to overly conservative decisions, whereas small sets risk excluding the true outcome. Recent data-driven approaches, particularly conformal prediction, offer finite-sample validity guarantees but remain largely task-agnostic, ignoring the downstream decision structure. In this paper, we propose a decision-aware conformal framework that learns uncertainty sets tailored to robust optimization objectives. Our approach parameterizes a flexible family of polyhedral sets via data-driven hyperplanes and learns their geometry by directly minimizing the induced robust loss, while preserving statistical validity through conformal calibration. To correct for data-dependent selection, we incorporate a re-calibration step on an independent dataset to restore coverage. The resulting sets capture directional and anisotropic uncertainty aligned with the decision objective while remaining computationally tractable. We provide finite-sample coverage guarantees and bounds on the sub-optimality gap to an oracle decision. This work bridges the gap between statistical validity and decision optimality, providing a principled framework for data-driven robust optimization.

Shuyi Chen, Wenbin Zhou, Shixiang Zhu

Carnegie Mellon University

Conformal Prediction Robust Optimization Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 8, 2026cs.AI

The Limits of AI-Driven Allocation: Optimal Screening under Aleatoric Uncertainty

The rise of machine learning has shifted targeted resource allocation in policy and humanitarian settings toward algorithmic targeting based on predicted risk scores. This approach is typically cheaper and faster than traditional screening procedures that directly observe the latent vulnerability status through physical verification. Yet, even access to the true conditional vulnerability probability cannot eliminate misallocation: aleatoric uncertainty over individual vulnerability status is irreducible, and probabilistic targeting inevitably misallocates some resources. In this work we study how screening and algorithmic targeting should be optimally combined in a two-stage allocation framework where a screening stage observes true outcomes for a subset of units before a final allocation stage assigns the resource under a fixed coverage budget. We show that the optimal strategy screens units at the margin of algorithmic allocation, while directly targeting the highest-risk units. Furthermore, we empirically characterize when screening and algorithmic targeting act as complements or substitutes: efficiency gains from screening grow as the aleatoric uncertainty in the population increases. We illustrate our framework with applications in income-based social protection programs and humanitarian demining in Colombia, where the tension between screening costs and allocation efficiency is operationally consequential.

Santiago Cortes-Gomez, Mateo Dulce Rubio, Carlos Patino +1

Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University · Center for Data Science, New York University · University of Amsterdam

Aleatoric Uncertainty Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 8, 2026cs.CL

DRIP-R: A Benchmark for Decision-Making and Reasoning Under Real-World Policy Ambiguity in the Retail Domain

LLM-based agents are increasingly deployed for routine but consequential tasks in real-world domains, where their behavior is governed by inherently ambiguous domain policies that admit multiple valid interpretations. Despite the prevalence of such ambiguities in practice, existing agent benchmarks largely assume unambiguous, well-specified policies, leaving a critical evaluation gap. We introduce DRIP-R, a benchmark that systematically exploits real-world retail policy ambiguities to construct scenarios in which no single correct resolution exists. DRIP-R comprises a curated set of policy-ambiguous return scenarios paired with a realistic customer personas, a full-duplex conversational simulation with tool-calling capabilities and a multi-judge evaluation framework covering policy adherence, dialogue quality, behavioral alignment, and resolution quality. Our experiments show that frontier models fundamentally disagree on identical policy-ambiguous scenarios, confirming that ambiguity poses a genuine and systematic challenge to LLM decision-making.

Hsuvas Borkakoty, Sebastian Pohl, Cheng Wang +2

Interdisciplinary Transformation University, Austria · Amazon, Berlin, Germany

LLM Agent Evaluation AI Agent Benchmarks LLM Decision-Making Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 7, 2026stat.ML

Risk-Controlled Post-Processing of Decision Policies

Predictive models are often deployed through existing decision policies that stakeholders are reluctant to change unless a risk constraint requires intervention. We study risk-controlled post-processing: given a deterministic baseline policy, choose a new policy that maximizes agreement with the baseline subject to a chance constraint on a user-specified loss. At the population level, we show that the optimal policy has a threshold structure: it follows the baseline except on contexts where switching to the oracle fallback policy yields a large reduction in conditional violation risk. At the finite-sample level, given a fitted fallback policy and score, we develop a post-processing algorithm that uses calibration data to select a threshold. Leveraging tools from algorithmic stability and stochastic processes, we show that under regularity conditions, in the i.i.d. setting, the expected excess risk of the post-processed policy is

O(\log n/n)

. In the special case when an exact-safe fallback policy is available, the algorithm achieves precise expected risk control under exchangeability. In this setting, we also give high-probability near-optimality guarantees on the post-processed policy. Experiments on a COVID-19 radiograph diagnosis task, an LLM routing problem, and a synthetic multiclass decision task show that targeted post-processing can meet or nearly meet risk budgets while preserving substantially more agreement with the baseline than score-blind random mixing.

Sunay Joshi, Tao Wang, Hamed Hassani +1

University of Pennsylvania

Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 7, 2026cs.RO

Resource-Constrained Robotic Planning in the face of Mixed Uncertainty

Robots operate under significant uncertainty, from quantifiable noise to unquantifiable unknowns, and must account for strict operational constraints, such as limited resources. In this paper, we consider the problem of synthesizing robust strategies to guide a robot's actions in fulfilling a given task, while ensuring the system never exhausts its resources. To solve this problem, we first model the robotic system as a Consumption Markov Decision Process with Set-valued Transitions(CMDPST), a unified framework modelling nondeterministic actions, quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty, and resource consumption. Then, we combine the CMDPST with the task specification, expressed as a Linear Temporal Logic over finite traces (LTLf ) formula. Lastly, we address the resource constrained optimal robust strategy synthesis problem, which aims to synthesize a strategy that maximizes the probability of satisfying the LTLf objective without resource exhaustion. Our solution involves two techniques: a direct unrolling-based method and a more efficient, optimized approach that leverages state-space pruning for better performance. Experiments on a warehouse transportation network show the effectiveness of the proposed solutions.

Yihao Yin, Pian Yu, Andrea Turrini +3

Hangzhou Institute for Advanced Study (HIAS), UCAS, China. · Key Laboratory of System Software (Chinese Academy of Sciences), Institute of Software Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. +1

Markov Decision Processes Robot Task Planning Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 6, 2026cs.GR

A Bayesian Approach for Task-Specific Next-Best-View Selection with Uncertain Geometry

We develop a framework for task-specific active next-best-view selection in 3D reconstruction from point clouds, by casting the problem in the language of Bayesian decision theory. Our framework works by (a) placing a prior distribution over the space of implicit surfaces, (b) using recently-developed stochastic surface reconstruction methods to calculate the resulting posterior distribution, then (c) using the posterior distribution to carefully reason about which view to scan next. This enables us to perform camera selection in a manner that is directly optimized for the intended use of the reconstructed data - meaning, we reduce uncertainty only in those regions that make a difference in the task at hand, as opposed to prior approaches that reduce it uniformly across space. We evaluate our method across three distinct downstream tasks: semantic classification, segmentation, and PDE-guided physics simulation. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework achieves superior task performance with fewer views compared to commonly used baselines and prior general uncertainty-reduction techniques.

Jingsen Zhu, Silvia Sellán, Alexander Terenin

Cornell University, USA · Columbia University, USA

Next-Best-View Planning 3D Reconstruction Bayesian Decision Theory Active View Selection Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 3, 2026cs.AI

NH-CROP: Robust Pricing for Governed Language Data Assets under Cost Uncertainty

Language data are increasingly acquired and governed as assets, yet platforms often price candidate resources before knowing their true privacy or access costs. We study online pricing for governed language data assets under cost uncertainty. At each round, a platform observes an NLP task, a candidate asset, and a coarse cost estimate, may pay for a refined cost signal, posts a price, and receives safe net revenue. We introduce \textsc{NH-CROP}, a clipped robust pricing framework with a no-harm information-acquisition gate. The method compares direct pricing, risk-aware pricing, and verify-then-price, and acquires information only when its estimated decision value exceeds the best no-verification alternative. Across synthetic, real-proxy, and downstream-utility-grounded benchmarks, clipped \textsc{NH-CROP} variants improve or remain competitive with price-only and risk-aware baselines. Causal ablations show that paid verification is not the main source of gains in real-proxy and utility-grounded settings: the strongest learned policies often choose not to verify. Oracle and high-decision-value diagnostics show that refined cost information can still have substantial local value. Overall, governed language-data platforms should calibrate pricing under uncertain access costs first and verify only when information is cheap and decision-actionable.

Xu Zheng, Feiyu Wu, Zhuocheng Wang +2

School of Cyber Engineering, Xidian University

Value of Information Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 2, 2026cs.CV

CHASE: Competing Hypotheses for Ambiguity-Aware Selective Prediction

Standard selective prediction methods typically estimate uncertainty from the output of a single predictive branch. While effective for general uncertainty estimation, these approaches often struggle under partial observability, where local temporal evidence can be contradictory and standard confidence scores become misleading. We introduce CHASE (Competing Hypotheses for Ambiguity-Aware Selective Prediction), a selective prediction framework that explicitly compares structured temporal explanations to determine whether to commit to a decision or abstain. Because genuine ambiguity causes the score gap between competing hypotheses to collapse, CHASE optimizes a ranking-aware selector over these hypothesis margins to globally separate safe commitments from fundamentally uncertain ones. We evaluate this framework on the problem of hidden connectivity inference, utilizing a controlled, physically grounded simulator inspired by the dynamics of giant unilamellar vesicles (GUVs), alongside zero-shot qualitative transfer (without retraining or fine tuning) to representative real GUV videos. Our experiments demonstrate that explicitly reasoning over competing hypotheses provides a superior balance of metrics. Compared to canonical uncertainty baselines, CHASE achieves statistically significant gains in overall no-abstain accuracy, three-way accuracy, and overall ambiguity-aligned abstention (at 80% coverage). Specifically, it yields up to an 11.0% relative mean improvement in overall alignment, alongside up to an 8.8% relative boost in three-way accuracy in the very-high ambiguity regime. By maintaining a selective risk boundary strictly at par with the best baselines at 80% coverage, and reducing overall risk by 9.9% at 90% coverage, this framework offers a more reliable approach to decision-making under structured ambiguity.

Kartik Jhawar, Yuhao Geng, Atul N. Parikh +1

Institute for Digital Molecular Analytics and Science, NTU, Singapore 636921 · School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, NTU, Singapore 639798 · School of Materials Science and Engineering, NTU, Singapore 639798 +1

Selective Prediction Selective Inference Decision-Making under Uncertainty

May 1, 2026cs.AI

Position: agentic AI orchestration should be Bayes-consistent

LLMs excel at predictive tasks and complex reasoning tasks, but many high-value deployments rely on decisions under uncertainty, for example, which tool to call, which expert to consult, or how many resources to invest. While the usefulness and feasibility of Bayesian approaches remain unclear for LLM inference, this position paper argues that the control layer of an agentic AI system (that orchestrates LLMs and tools) is a clear case where Bayesian principles should shine. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for agentic systems that can help to maintain beliefs over task-relevant latent quantities, to update these beliefs from observed agentic and human-AI interactions, and to choose actions. Making LLMs themselves explicitly Bayesian belief-updating engines remains computationally intensive and conceptually nontrivial as a general modeling target. In contrast, this paper argues that coherent decision-making requires Bayesian principles at the orchestration level of the agentic system, not necessarily the LLM agent parameters. This paper articulates practical properties for Bayesian control that fit modern agentic AI systems and human-AI collaboration, and provides concrete examples and design patterns to illustrate how calibrated beliefs and utility-aware policies can improve agentic AI orchestration.

Theodore Papamarkou, Pierre Alquier, Matthias Bauer +27

PolyShape, Greece. · NTUA, Greece. · ESSEC Business School, Singapore. +19

LLM Agent Orchestration AI Control Bayesian Decision Theory Human-AI Decision Making Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Apr 29, 2026eess.SY

Learning to Spend: Model Predictive Control for Budgeting under Non-Stationary Returns

We study finite-horizon budget allocation as a closed-loop economic control problem and evaluate receding-horizon Model Predictive Control (MPC) relative to reactive budgeting policies. Budgets are allocated periodically under execution noise and operational constraints, while return efficiency may evolve over time. Using a controlled simulation framework motivated by digital marketing, we compare reactive pacing to MPC across environments with increasing degrees of non-stationarity. Our results show that non-stationarity alone does not justify predictive control. When return dynamics are stationary or evolve through unpredictable stochastic drift, MPC offers no systematic advantage over reactive baselines. By contrast, when return efficiency exhibits predictable structure over the planning horizon, that is captured through an underlying model, MPC consistently outperforms reactive budgeting by exploiting intertemporal trade-offs.

Nilavra Pathak, Smriti Shyamal, Prasant Mhasker +1

Marketing Data Science, Expedia Group · Department of Chemical Engineering, McMaster University

Stochastic Optimal Control Model Predictive Control Optimal Control Decision-Making under Uncertainty

Apr 28, 2026cs.RO

Variational Neural Belief Parameterizations for Robust Dexterous Grasping under Multimodal Uncertainty

Contact variability, sensing uncertainty, and external disturbances make grasp execution stochastic. Expected-quality objectives ignore tail outcomes and often select grasps that fail under adverse contact realizations. Risk-sensitive POMDPs address this failure mode, but many use particle-filter beliefs that scale poorly, obstruct gradient-based optimization, and estimate Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) with high-variance approximations. We instead formulate grasp acquisition as variational inference over latent contact parameters and object pose, representing the belief with a differentiable Gaussian mixture. We use Gumbel-Softmax component selection and location-scale reparameterization to express samples as smooth functions of the belief parameters, enabling pathwise gradients through a differentiable CVaR surrogate for direct optimization of tail robustness. In simulation, our variational neural belief improves robust grasp success under contact-parameter uncertainty and exogenous force perturbations while reducing planning time by roughly an order of magnitude relative to particle-filter model-predictive control. On a serial-chain robot arm with a multifingered hand, we validate grasp-and-lift success under object-pose uncertainty against a Gaussian baseline. Both methods succeed on the tested perturbations, but our controller terminates in fewer steps and less wall-clock time while achieving a higher tactile grasp-quality proxy. Our learned belief also calibrates risk more accurately, keeping mean absolute calibration error below 0.14 across tested simulation regimes, compared with 0.58 for a Cross-Entropy Method planner.

Clinton Enwerem, Shreya Kalyanaraman, John S. Baras +1

Belief-Space Planning Stochastic Optimization Robotic Grasping Variational Inference Decision-Making under Uncertainty