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259 papers

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  1. Learning from the Unseen: Offline Reinforcement Learning with Hidden Actions

    Jul 28, 2026Zeyu Bian, Ying Zhou, Yifan CuiOffline Reinforcement LearningOff-Policy Evaluation

  2. Spectral Truncation in Synthetic Control

    Jul 27, 2026Mojtaba EslamiSynthetic SamplesEstimators

  3. Minimax Lower Bounds of Kernel Discrepancy Estimation: MMD, HSIC, KSD

    Jul 27, 2026Jose Cribeiro-Ramallo, Florian Kalinke, Zoltán SzabóMaximum Mean DiscrepancyKernel Hilbert Spaces

  4. Image Inpainting via Stochastic Dynamics

    Jul 27, 2026Jiaqi Kuang, Zihao Guo, Zhongmin QianInpaintingDiverse Occlusion-And-Revelation Scenarios

  5. Logit-Coordinate Generative Models for Mixed Continuous-Categorical Tabular Data

    Jul 25, 2026Yuefei Shen, Xiaotong ShenMixture ModelsLogit Lens

  6. Finite-Sample Coverage Audits for High-Recall Candidate Generation: Certification and Learning-Theoretic Design

    Jul 23, 2026Martin Anthony, Kaveh Salehzadeh NobariAlgorithm AuditingCertification

  7. Automatic knot selection in smooth additive models

    Jul 23, 2026Nicolás Carrizosa, Vanesa Guerrero, María DurbánB-SplineModel Selection

  8. Adaptive deep nonparametric regression from dependent data under covariate shift

    Jul 22, 2026William Kengne, Ehud Mossa OckegnaCovariate ShiftNonparametric

  9. Directional Kernel Mean Difference: A Fast Signed Statistic for Univariate Distribution Comparison

    Jul 22, 2026Shijie Zhong, Jiangfeng FuMaximum Mean DiscrepancyKernel Method

  10. Kernel Regression with Tensor Trains and Hadamard Overparameterization

    Jul 19, 2026Duc Thien Nguyen, Konstantinos Slavakis, Eleftherios Kofidis +1TensorOver-Parameterized Neural Networks

  11. Aggregation of Statistical Evidence under Exchangeability

    Jul 17, 2026Antonin Schrab, Rajen Shah, Arthur Gretton +1Finite-SampleInvariance

  12. Kernel weighted importance sampling for off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits

    Jul 16, 2026Joshua Spear, Matthieu Komorowski, Rebecca Pope +2Linear Contextual BanditsOff-Policy Evaluation

  13. Learning Who to Treat When Treatment is Missing

    Jul 15, 2026Johnna Sundberg, Rayid Ghani, Eli Ben-Michael +1Heterogeneous Treatment EffectsMissing Data

  14. Topology-Agnostic Mesh Reconstruction of Deformable Objects from Sparse Touch

    Jul 15, 2026Everest YangHuman Mesh RecoveryDeformable Objects

  15. ANGLE: Angular Neural Generative Learning via Engression

    Jul 14, 2026Rajdeep Pathak, Archi Roy, Tanujit ChakrabortyNonparametricUrban Wind

  16. Diachronic Sample Integration: Robust Tail-Risk Estimation with Generative Models

    Jul 12, 2026Shuning Zhao, Patrick Wong, Leran Zhang +1Long-Tailed DistributionStochastic Differential Equations

  17. Representation Learning for Semiparametric Causal Mediation Analysis under No Essential Heterogeneity

    Jul 12, 2026Roberto Faleh, Sofia Morelli, Holger BrandtCausal Mediation AnalysisHeterogeneous Treatment Effects

  18. Generalized Distribution-Free Semi-Supervised Learning with Risk Rewrite

    Jul 11, 2026Yushi Hirose, Hiroo Irobe, Takafumi KanamoriSemi-Supervised LearningDistributional Learning

  19. Influence Diagnostics in High-dimensional M-estimation: Precise Asymptotics

    Jul 10, 2026Hugo CuiEfficient Influence FunctionEstimators

  20. PIT-SUN: A Deployable Empirical Marginal Transform Framework with Expectation-Consistent Recovery for Regression in Recommender Systems

    Jul 9, 2026Mingyu Zhao, Zhaohan Li, Zhenxiong Miao +4PosteriorEstimators

  21. GradInf: Gradient Estimation as Probabilistic Inference

    Jul 8, 2026Gaurav Arya, Mathieu Huot, Moritz Schauer +2Probabilistic InferenceGradient Flow

  22. Learning Sparsest Linear Causal DAGs with Latent Confounders via Higher-Order Cumulants

    Jul 7, 2026Ming Cai, Hisayuki HaraLatent ConfoundersDirected Acyclic Graph

  23. No Subspace to Track: Non-Identifiability and Optimizer State in Low-Rank Training

    Jul 7, 2026Noel ThomasLow-Rank FactorizationLarge Models

  24. Higher-Order Certified Robustness for Regression

    Jul 6, 2026Jie Zhang, Natalie FrankSmoothingNonparametric

  25. Video Generation Models Are Inherent Lighting Estimators

    Jul 6, 2026Ziqi Cai, Shuchen Weng, Kaiqi Liu +5LightingIllumination

  26. Reliability and Identifiability in Persona-Trained Monte Carlo: Variance Decomposition, Stability Bounds, and the Identifiability of Heterogeneous News Reaction

    Jul 6, 2026Salavat IshbulatovMonte CarloEstimators

  27. Towards Diverse and Comprehensive Benchmarks for Mutual Information Estimation

    Jul 3, 2026Alberto Foresti, Ivan Butakov, Alexander Tolmachev +3Mutual InformationEstimators

  28. Open Problem: Is Interaction Necessary for Order-Optimal 1-bit Mean Estimation?

    Jul 3, 2026Ivan Lau, Jonathan ScarlettMaximizationNonparametric

  29. Contaminated Multi-task Learning with Heterogeneity: Fundamental Limits and Optimal Algorithms

    Jul 2, 2026Ye Tian, Mengchu Li, Marco Avella MedinaEmpirical Risk MinimizationMulti--Task Learning

  30. Aggregation with Exponential Weights is Optimal in Expectation

    Jul 2, 2026Mikael Møller Høgsgaard, Patrick Rebeschini, Tobias WegelEstimatorsModel Selection

  31. Decoupling Code Complexity from Newcomer Participation: A Causal Study of AI Coding Agent Adoption in OSS

    Jul 2, 2026Weiwei Xu, Xuanning Cui, Hengzhi Ye +1Coding AgentsCommits

  32. UniWind: Toward Unified Day-Ahead Wind Power Forecasting via Physics-Informed State Routing

    Jul 2, 2026Ronghui Xu, Tongxin Wu, Guozhen Zhang +4Energy ForecastingPhysics-Informed Machine Learning

  33. Distributionally Robust Linear Regression With Block Lewis Weights

    Jun 30, 2026Naren Sarayu Manoj, Kumar Kshitij PatelLeast SquaresProximal Gradient Descent

  34. On Optimal Data Splitting for Split Conformal Prediction

    Jun 30, 2026Sayan Das, Bahram Yaghooti, Todd A. Kuffner +1Conformal PredictionFinite-Sample Coverage Guarantees

  35. Transformers as Bayesian In-Context Experimenters: Smoothness-Adaptive Efficient ATE Estimation

    Jun 30, 2026Jiachun Li, David Simchi-LeviBayesian Experimental DesignHeterogeneous Treatment Effects

  36. FROST: Training-Free Few-Shot Segmentation with Frozen Features and Nonparametric Statistics

    Jun 30, 2026Junghwan ParkFew-Shot SegmentationRemote Sensing

  37. Budget-Adaptive Routing: Skipping the Weak When the Strong Answers Anyway

    Jun 29, 2026Wei Geng, Nitinder Mohan, Jörg OttAdaptive RoutingLow-Latency Systems

  38. A Stationary-Distribution Theory for Triplet-Based Plateau Search in Random Forest Ensemble-Size Selection

    Jun 29, 2026Andrey A. Dukhovny, Andrey M. LangeRandom ForestFinite-Sample

  39. Non-parametric recovery of causal diffusion mechanisms from steady-state observations

    Jun 29, 2026Richard Schwank, Mathias DrtonStochastic Differential EquationsCausal Graph

  40. Using Large Language Models as Low-Cost Statistical Estimators for Human-Response Data

    Jun 29, 2026Haobo YangEstimatorsEquivalence

  41. On design-unbiased algorithmic Machine Learning

    Jun 27, 2026Li-Chun Zhang, Siu-Ming Tam, Luis Sanguiao-Sande +2Machine LearningFinite-Sample

  42. The Simulacrum: Decision-Theoretic Pretraining for Near-Optimal Time-Series Forecasting and Inference

    Jun 26, 2026Pablo Montero-Manso, Marcel ScharthMultivariate ForecastingFinite-Sample

  43. XMSE-Aware Adaptive Empirical Bayes Estimation

    Jun 25, 2026Minghao Chen, Jiale ZhengEstimatorsBayesian

  44. A Closed-Form 4-DoF Inter-Robot Pose Estimator using Bearing-only Measurements

    Jun 25, 2026Qixin De, Ao Zhuang, Yechen Zhang +2Robust LocalizationCategory-Level Object Pose Estimation

  45. Knowledge Cascade: Reverse Knowledge Distillation on Nonparametric Multivariate Functional Estimation

    Jun 24, 2026Luyang Fang, Haoran Lu, Yongkai Chen +2Knowledge DistillationNonparametric

  46. Dynamic estimation of slowly varying sequences

    Jun 22, 2026Prashant Gokhale, Mikhail Khodak, Sandeep SilwalEstimatorsTime-Varying Systems

  47. Solve for the Hyperparameter, Skip the Search: Kolmogorov-Optimal Scaling Laws for Spline Regression

    Jun 22, 2026Yong Yi Bay, Kathleen A. YearickKernel Ridge RegressionHyperparameter Optimization

  48. Generalized nonparametric regression in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces: Consistency and rates of convergence

    Jun 22, 2026Ioannis KalogridisKernel Hilbert SpacesEstimators

  49. Target-Aware Linear Regression Under Distribution Shift

    Jun 22, 2026Zhewen Hou, Tian ZhengEstimatorsCovariate Shift

  50. Robust Diffusion Models via Divergence-Induced Weighted Denoising

    Jun 21, 2026Lei Li, Yuexiao DongDenoising Diffusion Probabilistic ModelBregman Divergences

  51. Noise-Debiased Thermodynamic Variance for Local Learning Coefficient Probes

    Jun 21, 2026Yingjia CaiLoss LandscapeSingular Learning Theory

  52. Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores

    Jun 21, 2026Seungjin ChoiNonconformity ScoresConformal Calibration

  53. Finite-Sample Performance of Gradient Descent in Logistic Regression with Gaussian Design

    Jun 19, 2026Junren Chen, Arya MazumdarFinite-SampleGradient Descent

  54. SCOPE: Scale-Consistent One-Pass Estimation of 3D Geometry

    Jun 19, 2026Zheng Zhang, Lihe Yang, Tianyu Yang +6Feed-Forward Visual Geometry Estimation3D Geometry

  55. Subsampling for supervised learning in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces

    Jun 19, 2026Eyal Vayness, Maxime SangnierKernel Hilbert SpacesSubsampling

  56. Two Layers of Instability in Causal Estimation

    Jun 19, 2026Alexis BellotCausal InferencesEstimators

  57. Observability and Consistency Analysis for Visual-Inertial Navigation with Anchored Feature Parameterizations

    Jun 17, 2026Mitchell Cohen, Vassili Korotkine, James Richard ForbesVisual-Inertial SystemsNavigation

  58. On Local Population-Risk Certificates

    Jun 17, 2026Mingzhi SongFinite-Sample CertificatesFinite-Sample

  59. Online Distributional Prediction via Latent Cluster Geometry Under Drift and Corruption

    Jun 17, 2026Navyansh Mahla, Prateek Chanda, Ganesh RamakrishnanDistributional LearningPosterior

  60. A nonparametric two-sample test using a parametric integral probability metric

    Jun 15, 2026Yuha Park, Yongdai KimTwo-Sample TestingNonparametric