Mortality Prediction

Follow this topic Ask about this topic

Momentum

2 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 21

Oct 1, 2026cs.LG

Beyond Demographic Balance: Multi-Metric and Intersectional Evaluation of Fairness in MIMIC-IV Mortality Prediction

Fairness conclusions in clinical prediction can depend strongly on both the metrics reported and the demographic resolution at which performance is evaluated. We revisit these evaluation choices for ICU mortality prediction on MIMIC-IV, comparing predictive-utility and subgroup-error metrics across several fairness interventions. As a complementary case study, we introduce a lightweight adaptation strategy that jointly balances ethnicity--gender--insurance representation without conditioning on mortality outcomes, allowing demographic representation balancing to be examined separately from outcome-conditioned or direct error-rate interventions. We evaluate its behavior at both marginal and corresponding three-way intersectional subgroup levels, while accounting for the statistical support of finer-grained estimates. The results show that interventions can receive substantially different assessments across accuracy/AUROC, sensitivity, and false-positive rate, and that marginal demographic summaries can conceal heterogeneous error profiles within their constituent intersections, including among larger subgroups. These findings highlight the importance of evaluating fairness interventions at both complementary metric and subgroup resolutions, while accounting for the intervention target and the reliability of subgroup estimates.

Abdullah Al Noman, Fahmid Al Rifat, Tahrima Hashem +3

Virginia Tech Blacksburg, Virginia, USA · University of Texas at Arlington Arlington, Texas, USA · University of Melbourne Melbourne, Victoria, Australia +3

Algorithmic Fairness Intersectional Fairness Mortality Prediction

Sep 20, 2026cs.LG

GLR-MM: Graph-Based Global-Local Reconstruction for Robust Multimodal Chest X-ray and EHR Representation Learning under Missing Modalities

Clinical multimodal models must often predict before all chest X-ray (CXR) and electronic health record (EHR) inputs are available. Existing approaches align observed representations, model missingness, or reconstruct across modalities, but do not jointly exploit within-patient and clinically similar inter-patient evidence. We propose GLR-MM, a Graph-Based Global-Local Reconstruction framework for early ICU mortality prediction. It maps five CXR-EHR modalities to a shared space, reconstructs missing embeddings through complementary local cross-modal and global graph-attention branches, adaptively fuses their estimates, and optimizes class-balanced prediction, reconstruction, and contrastive objectives. On 9,620 MIMIC-derived ICU stays, we evaluate 10%, 30%, and 50% random modality missingness with shared deterministic masks. MUSE performs better under mild and moderate missingness, whereas GLR-MM achieves higher AUROC and AUPRC at 50% by 0.0088 and 0.0249, respectively. These results indicate that graph-guided reconstruction is most useful when inputs are severely incomplete.

Surbhi Sharma, Nikhil Manali, Devesh Maheshwari

Houston Methodist, Houston, TX, USA · University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA · Walmart, USA

Missing-Modality Learning Graph Neural Networks Clinical Outcome Prediction Mortality Prediction Multimodal Learning

Aug 6, 2026cs.AI

QuanTiMedAI: Quantum-Enhanced Time-Series Model guided by Agentic AI for Cardiac Arrest Mortality Prediction

Cardiac arrest remains one of the most lethal conditions encountered in intensive care units. Despite the growing availability of electronic health record data, existing mortality prediction studies in this population largely depend on static summaries derived from early admission. Such approaches ignore the temporal progression of physiological deterioration and recovery that unfolds throughout a patient's ICU stay. To address this limitation, we introduce QuanTiMedAI, a quantum-agentic framework developed for cardiac arrest mortality prediction using agentic AI guided quantum enhancement time series model. The proposed system combines an agentic large language model (LLM) for clinically informed feature discovery with a compact quantum recurrent network for temporality aware mortality prediction. Our findings demonstrate that agentic LLM-guided feature selection consistently outperforms conventional feature selection approaches, and the proposed quantum architecture achieves competitive predictive performance through nonlinear feature enhancement while keeping the number of parameters very low. Through extensive experimentation on a MIMIC-IV cohort of cardiac arrest patients, QuanTiMedAI's quantum-enhanced architecture attains an AUROC of 0.852 using only 605 parameters, an improvement of approximately 2.9% over a current state-of-the-art baseline for this task. A structured ablation study systematically validates the contribution of each architectural design choice. These results show that quantum-enhanced sequential modeling can exceed classical recurrent networks while using substantially fewer parameters.

Mutasim Fuad Sarker, Adiba Rahman Namira, Wafa Binte Alam +3

Dept. of ECE North South University, Dhaka, Bangladesh · Dept. of ECE Memorial University, St. John’s, NL, Canada

Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML Longitudinal EHR Modeling Mortality Prediction Quantum Neural Networks

Aug 1, 2026cs.LG

CT-HEG: A Bidirectional, Timestamp-Attributed Event Graph for ICU In-Hospital Mortality Prediction - An Architectural Ablation Study

Accurate ICU mortality prediction requires modeling irregular clinical observations across heterogeneous entity types. Existing sequence models handle irregular sampling but ignore typed relational structure; existing graph models assume fixed-interval inputs. We introduce the Continuous-Time Heterogeneous EHR Graph (CT-HEG) schema and evaluate which architectural choices drive predictive performance. CT-HEG encodes each ICU stay as a typed, timestamped graph with three node types (visit, vital, lab_event) and 2D edge attributes (t_hours/48, value_norm) encoding timing and value without imputation. We instantiate CT-HEG as CHIRP-Net, a four-layer heterogeneous GATv2Conv network, evaluated on MIMIC-IV v3.1 (31,142 ICU stays, LOS>=48h, 13.4% mortality) with five seeds and bootstrapped confidence intervals, against logistic regression, mTAND, a Transformer, and GRU-D, plus an ablation study. CHIRP-Net achieved 5-seed mean AUROC 0.8449+/-0.0071 (AUPRC 0.4958+/-0.0209); the ensemble achieved AUROC 0.8618 (95% CI: 0.8485-0.8745). Removing reverse edges disconnected observation nodes from the visit readout, cutting AUROC by 0.1968+/-0.0073. Time-attentive edge features contributed 0.0247+/-0.0093 AUROC. Collapsing heterogeneous edge types into one relation (7x fewer parameters) outperformed the full model on all seeds. Post-calibration ECE was 0.0307. Temporal and demographic subgroup analyses were explored but not reported here, pending follow-up work. Bidirectional connectivity was necessary for the model to use its inputs at all, and CT-HEG was reasonably well calibrated after validation-fitted temperature scaling. These results support CT-HEG for irregular EHR data, while external validation, a pre-specified temporal evaluation, and a demographic fairness audit remain necessary before any claim of robustness. Code: https://github.com/nasiruddinstudents-ctrl/chirp-net-mimic-iv.

Mohammad Nasir Uddin, Rahnuma Tabassum Orpita, Asaduzzaman Anik +4

College of Business, DBA-BIDA, Westcliff University, Los Angeles, CA, USA · Dept. of CSE, Northern University Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh · MBA, Business Administration & Management, Stanton University, Anaheim, CA, USA +2

Heterogeneous GNNs Longitudinal EHR Modeling Mortality Prediction

Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Demographically-Informed Heat-Mortality Risk Curves via Risk Graph Neural Networks

Estimating heat-related mortality risk is a core task in environmental epidemiology, typically addressed with Distributed Lag Non-linear Models (DLNMs); interpretable exposure-response surfaces fitted to temperature-mortality time series. DLNMs are effective but ignore demographic and geographic context, despite well-established relevance to heat vulnerability. We propose Risk Graph Neural Networks (RGNNs), a hierarchical GNN encoder that uses granular census features to optimise DLNM coefficient vectors, preserving interpretable risk curve outputs while substantially improving predictive calibration. Evaluated across 10 regions of England and Wales on two unprecedented heat years, RGNN variants maintain both lower point-errors and near-nominal uncertainty coverage during the 2022 heatwave where baselines collapse.

Alex O. Davies, Eunice Lo, Rui Zhu

School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, UK

Graph Neural Networks Probabilistic Forecasting Mortality Prediction

Jul 1, 2026eess.IV

Predicting Lethal Outcome (Cause) And Understanding Key Biomarkers Linked With Acute Myocardial Infarction Using Deep Artificial Neural Network And Ensemble Of Machine Learning Methodologies

Cardiovascular disease is still one of the main causes of death around the world. Acute myocardial infarction (MI), or heart attack, claims millions of lives each year. MI happens when blood flow to the coronary arteries is blocked or reduced, which causes permanent damage to the heart muscle. Without treatment, this can lead to cardiac arrest, where the heart stops pumping blood to the organs, resulting in organ failure and death. Even survivors often face serious problems like heart failure, pulmonary edema, and asystole. Research shows that 5 to 10 percent of survivors die within the first year after an MI, and nearly half need to be hospitalized again. Early thrombolytic treatment leads to better outcomes, so there is a clear need for faster and more accurate ways to diagnose MI. Right now, doctors usually review patient history and use their own experience to find the causes of MI. This process takes a lot of time and can be inconsistent. Detecting MI accurately and quickly can help patients take better care of themselves and prevent fatal events. In this study, we introduce an automated model to predict deadly outcomes of MI and help doctors understand important biomarkers linked to its complications. This approach aims to make diagnosis clearer, faster, and more affordable. The process includes preparing the data, filling in missing values, and handling imbalanced data using SVMSMOTE, ADASYN, and class-weighted methods. We use wrapper and embedded feature selection to find the most important variables, then scale the features for consistency. The model combines Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Light-GBM, and Bagging SVM, and is further improved with an artificial neural network to increase accuracy. We evaluate all models using precision, recall, and other key measures to find the best option for clinical use.

Sagnik Ghosh

Mortality Prediction

Jun 4, 2026cs.LG

Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting

Mortality forecasting plays an important role in actuarial and policy decision-making, but its implementation remains technically complex and inaccessible to non-expert users. This project proposes a reliable large language model (LLM)-integrated interface that improves usability while maintaining statistical power. The LLM is designed as a constrained orchestration layer that translates natural-language inputs into structured configurations for a deterministic forecasting pipeline. A three-phase methodology is employed to ensure accuracy, usability, and transparency. First, a baseline pipeline is implemented using the CoMoMo package, reproducing established mortality forecasting results. Second, the pipeline is extended to generate multi-step forecasts using rolling-origin evaluation and mean squared error (MSE). Third, a prototype interface uses a local LLM to handle users' forecasting requests in plain language. The system demonstrates that LLMs can enhance accessibility without compromising reproducibility, transparency, or actuarial validity in high-stakes analytical workflows.

Thi Kim Ngan Nguyen

Curtin University

LLM Tool Use Mortality Prediction

Jun 3, 2026cs.LG

SurvPFN: Towards Foundation Models for Survival Predictions

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have made rapid progress in standard classification and regression, but time-to-event survival prediction tasks have remained largely untouched. Unlike in standard regression tasks, survival prediction models must account for censored data. Standard TFMs cannot handle natively censored data, leading to biased and inaccurate predictions, making them unsuitable for real-world applications. To overcome this fundamental limitation, we propose \texttt{SurvPFN}, a prior-data fitted network (PFN), for survival prediction tasks. We pretrain \texttt{SurvPFN} on millions of synthetic survival prediction tasks to learn survival via distributional regression that accounts for censored data. \texttt{SurvPFN} works by (1) generating data with Weibull event times and a non-informative censoring mechanism; (2) integrating a censored event indicator; and (3) minimizing a censored negative log-likelihood. On SurvSet, a collection of real-world survival tasks, \texttt{SurvPFN} is highly competitive with classical and deep survival baselines without per-dataset fitting, a survival-specific architecture, or feature engineering. We show that survival can be treated as a continuous-time distributional regression problem with censored loss, unlocking the power of PFNs for time-to-event predictions.

Samuel Böhm, Lennart Purucker, Frank Hutter +1

Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center - University of Freiburg, Faculty of Medicine, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany · Institute of Epidemiology and Prevention, Medical Center – University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany · Department of Computer Science, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany +7

Tabular Foundation Models Survival Analysis Prior-Data Fitted Networks Mortality Prediction

Jun 2, 2026cs.MA

D2MDT: Department-aware Multidisciplinary Team Consultation with Deliberation for Efficient Clinical Prediction

Electronic health records (EHRs) are central to clinical prediction, but existing methods either rely on correlation-driven deep models or use single large language models (LLMs), making it difficult to support multidisciplinary clinical reasoning. Recent multi-agent systems (MAS) provide a promising alternative, yet current EHR-grounded MAS methods still suffer from weak evidence differentiation across agents and redundant multi-round interaction. We propose D2MDT, a Department-aware MultiDisciplinary Team Consultation with Deliberation for Efficient clinical prediction. D2MDT first constructs structured EHR evidence and consultation-ready semantic evidence for multi-agent consultation. It then assigns patient-specific department perspectives to doctor agents and retrieves complementary evidence for collaborative consultation. To improve efficiency, D2MDT further introduces residual deliberation, which updates only unresolved consensus rather than replaying the full discussion history. Finally, D2MDT fuses the refined consensus report with structured EHR representations for prediction. Experiments on mortality prediction show that D2MDT improves both predictive performance and consultation efficiency. We release the code online to ease the reproducibility of this paper.

Yongqi Liang, Qidong Liu, Chunze Yang +4

Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China

Clinical Outcome Prediction Multi-Agent Collaboration Clinical Reasoning Electronic Health Records Mortality Prediction

May 29, 2026cs.NE

Developing a novel Comorbidities Index for predicting 10-year mortality in Prostate Cancer patients: A computational data-driven approach

The Charlson Comorbidities Index (CCI) is a weighted additive index widely used to estimate ten-year mortality risk, but its original weights may not reflect contemporary prognoses. This limitation is critical in Prostate Cancer (PCa), where radical treatment is recommended only for patients with a life expectancy of at least ten years. For candidates eligible for Radical Prostatectomy (RP), accurate estimation of ten-year other-cause mortality is essential to balance oncological benefit against competing risks and avoid overtreatment. We propose a data-driven framework to derive a comorbidity index tailored to PCa patients considered for RP. Using a retrospective single-institution cohort, we apply Population-Based Bio-Inspired Algorithms (PBBIAs) to recalibrate comorbidity weights and evolve alternative symbolic formulations optimized for ten-year survival discrimination. We compared six optimization strategies, including symbolic regression approaches based on Genetic Programming (GP), population-based metaheuristics, clinically validated baselines, and survival prediction models. Results show that GA, FST-PSO, and SLIM outperform both the original CCI and the PCCI, particularly when PCa-specific variables are included, improving the Concordance Index by up to 0.1. GPLearn yields compact and interpretable models with competitive performance. Overall, the proposed approach provides an updated and interpretable tool to improve patient selection for RP.

Davide Farinati, Francesco Barletta, Paolo Zaurito +6

Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Milan, Italy Comprehensive Cancer Center/Unit of Urology; URI; IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy · School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King’s College London, London, UK · Department of Urology, Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK

Cancer Survival Prediction Metaheuristic Optimization Oncology Mortality Prediction

May 25, 2026cs.AI

Towards end-to-end LLM-based censoring-aware survival analysis

Objective: Survival analysis is central to medical prediction, yet large language models (LLMs) are rarely used as end-to-end survival models because censoring prevents straightforward supervised fine-tuning. Here we present LLMSurvival, a framework that enables censoring-aware survival analysis with unmodified LLMs operating directly on tabular clinical data. Materials and Methods: LLMSurvival reformulates time-to-event prediction as pairwise ranking among comparable subjects, and derives test-time risk by aggregating comparisons against anchor individuals from the training cohort. Results: Across two clinical tasks (ICU mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV and fragility fracture prediction in a NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medicine cohort), LLMSurvival improves overall concordance over Cox proportional hazards modeling by 3.1% for ICU mortality and 0.5% for fracture risk, 2.1% on average for ICU mortality and 2.8% for fracture risk over three established deep learning survival models. Discussion: The results show that survival modeling with censoring can be made compatible with LLM fine-tuning through comparison-based reformulation. The framework demonstrates high portability and superior performance over expert curated scores like SAPS-II and FRAX scores across diverse clinical context. Furthermore, the framework supports local deployment, as compact, publicly available base models provide sufficient performance. Conclusion: The LLMSurvival framework serves as a proof of concept for an integrated, censoring-conscious approach to survival analysis via LLMs.

Yishu Wei, Hexin Dong, Yi Lin +3

Department of Population Health Science, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, 10065, US · Department of Medicine, Weill Cornell Medicine, New York, 10065, US

Survival Analysis Mortality Prediction Medical LLMs

May 15, 2026cs.LG

SurvivalPFN: Amortizing Survival Prediction via In-Context Bayesian Inference

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

Shi-ang Qi, Vahid Balazadeh, Michael Cooper +2

Vector Institute · University of Toronto · University of Alberta +1

Amortized Inference Survival Analysis Bayesian Inference Prior-Data Fitted Networks Mortality Prediction

May 7, 2026stat.ML

Neural-Actuarial Longevity Forecasting: Anchoring LSTMs for Explainable Risk Management

Traditional multi-population models, such as the Li-Lee framework, rely on the assumption of mean-reverting country-specific deviations. However, recent data from high-longevity clusters suggest a systemic break in this paradigm. We identify a stationarity paradox where mortality residuals in countries like Sweden and West Germany exhibit persistent unit roots, leading to a systematic mispricing of longevity risk in linear models. To address these non-linearities, we propose Hybrid-Lift, a neural-actuarial framework that combines Hierarchical LSTM networks with a Mean-Bias Correction (MBC) anchoring mechanism. Positioned as a governance-friendly model challenger rather than a replacement of classical approaches, the framework exhibits selective superiority on out-of-sample validation (2012-2020): it outperforms Li-Lee by 17.40% in Sweden and 12.57% in West Germany, while remaining comparable for near-linear regimes such as Switzerland and Japan. We complement the predictive model with an integrated governance suite comprising SHAP-based cross-country influence mapping, a dual uncertainty framework for regulatory capital calibration (Swiss ES 99.0% of +1.153 years), and a reverse stress test identifying the critical shock threshold for solvency buffer exhaustion. This research provides evidence that neural networks, when properly anchored by actuarial principles, can serve as effective model challengers for longevity risk management under the SST and Solvency II standards.

Davide Rindori

SAV Actuarial Candidate, ETH Zürich · PhD in Physics, University of Florence (2021)

Long-Term Time Series Forecasting AI Risk Management Long Short-Term Memory Networks Mortality Prediction

May 6, 2026cs.LG

Social Determinants of Health and Fentanyl Overdose Mortality Across US Counties: An XGBoost and SHAP Analysis Identifying Silent Risk Counties and Treatment Deserts

Background: Fentanyl overdose deaths are still increasing across the U.S. We do not fully understand which county-level social and structural conditions lead to higher overdose death rates. Social determinants of health, including disability, treatment access, and behavioral health issues, may help identify vulnerable counties before deaths become severe. No earlier study has used explainable machine learning with SHAP attribution on 2022 CDC WONDER data to study treatment access gaps and silent risk counties. Methods: We combined data from four government sources for 975 U.S. counties, including CDC WONDER (2022) overdose mortality data, CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), CDC PLACES health behavior data, and Area Health Resources Files. An XGBoost model was used to predict overdose mortality risk using Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR). Five-fold cross-validation was used to test model accuracy, and SHAP values were used to show which factors increase or decrease risk. Results: XGBoost outperformed all tested models (Spearman rho=0.67, R2=0.457, MAE=0.409, high-risk recall=71.1%). Top predictors were disability rate, hypertension, smoking, and lack of vehicle access. Treatment desert counties had 52.6% higher overdose mortality (SMR 1.786 vs 1.170; p<0.0001). K-means identified 143 silent risk counties. Overdose deaths were spatially clustered (Moran's I=0.505, p=0.001) with 75 hotspots and 136 coldspots. Suppressed counties were 58.2% of WONDER counties, mostly rural (72%) and treatment deserts (65%). Conclusions: County-level SDOH factors predict overdose deaths, especially disability, treatment access, and behavioral health burden. MOUD expansion should prioritize treatment desert counties, and silent risk counties need early intervention before mortality worsens.

Kabi Raj Tiruwa, Abhisan Ghimire, Anuj Kumar Shah

Clark University · Clark University, 910 Main St, Worcester, 01610, MA, USA. · Yeshiva University +1

Mortality Prediction

May 5, 2026cs.LG

Enhance the after-discharge mortality rate prediction via learning from the medical notes

With the increase of the Electronic Health Records (EHR) data, more and more researchers are developing machine learning models to learn from the medical notes. These unstructured text data pose significant challenges on the learning process as the quality of data is low. These data are often messy, repetitive and redundant. We have shown these notes data to be informative by conducting the after-discharge mortality rate prediction task. The AUC-ROC for models using the medical note information is generally 0.1 higher than those without the medical notes. Furthermore, we propose the Deep Neural Network(DNN) model with 'pooling' mechanism to enhance the mortality prediction. Based on the experimental results, we demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms the traditional machine learning models like the tree-based models. The proposed method learns from the most informative medical notes and improves the prediction accuracy significantly. The AUC-ROC for the proposed model is 2% to 14% higher than the traditional ones in 15-days, 30-days, 60-days, 365-days after-discharge mortality prediction tasks. Moreover, we can discover some interesting knowledge through the traditional and proposed models. These knowledge are inspiring but also consistent with the previous findings. The models are able to reveal the relationships between the informative keywords and documents from the medical notes and the severity of the patients.

Zijiang Yang

University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX 78712, USA

Healthcare Clinical Outcome Prediction Electronic Health Records Mortality Prediction

May 2, 2026cs.AI

NEURON: A Neuro-symbolic System for Grounded Clinical Explainability

Clinical AI adoption is hindered by the black-box/grey-box nature of high-performing models, which lack the ontological grounding and narrative transparency required for professional-level explainability. We present NEURON, a neuro-symbolic system designed to enhance both predictive reliability and clinical interpretability. NEURON integrates SNOMED CT ontology-informed structural representations with machine learning models to bridge the gap between raw data and medical nomenclature. To facilitate human-aligned interaction, the system utilizes a Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) grounded LLM layer to synthesize SHAP feature attributions and patient-specific clinical notes into coherent, natural-language explanations. Validated on the MIMIC-IV dataset for Acute Heart Failure mortality prediction, NEURON improved the AUC from 0.74-0.77 to 0.84-0.88 and significantly outperformed raw SHAP visualizations in human-aligned metrics (0.85 vs. 0.50). Our results demonstrate that NEURON offers a robust, scalable engineering solution for deploying trustworthy, human-centered connected health applications.

Anuradha Chandrasekaran, Dimitrios Zikos, Mutlu Mete +3

University of North Texas, USA and Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, USA · Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, USA · University of North Texas, USA

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Clinical Outcome Prediction Neuro-Symbolic AI Mortality Prediction

Apr 30, 2026cs.AI

Simulating clinical interventions with a generative multimodal model of human physiology

Understanding how human health changes over time, and why responses to interventions vary between individuals, remains a central challenge in medicine. Here we present HealthFormer, a decoder-only transformer that models the human physiological trajectory generatively, by training on data from the Human Phenotype Project, a multi-visit cohort of over 15,000 deeply phenotyped individuals. We tokenise each participant's health trajectory across 667 measurements spanning seven domains: blood biomarkers, body composition, sleep physiology, continuous glucose monitoring, gut microbiome, wearable-derived physiology, and behaviour and medication exposure. We train HealthFormer to forecast individual physiological trajectories across these domains, and from this single generative objective a range of clinically relevant tasks can be expressed as queries on the model. We show that, without task-specific training, HealthFormer transfers to four independent cohorts and improves prediction for 27 of 30 incident-disease and mortality endpoints, exceeding established clinical risk scores in every comparison. We further show that the model can simulate interventions in silico: in a held-out personalised-nutrition trial, intervention-conditioned predictions recover individual six-month biomarker changes (e.g., Pearson r = 0.78 for diastolic blood pressure). Across 41 randomised intervention-outcome comparisons drawn from published trials, our results show that the predicted direction of effect agrees in every case, and the predicted mean falls within the reported 95% confidence interval in 30 cases. We position HealthFormer as an initial health world model, from which forecasting, risk stratification, and intervention-conditioned simulation arise as queries, providing a basis for clinical digital twins.

Guy Lutsker, Gal Sapir, Jordi Merino +7

Department of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel. · Department of Molecular Cell Biology, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel. · NVIDIA, Tel Aviv, Israel. +5

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Healthcare Mortality Prediction Clinical Risk Prediction

Apr 20, 2026cs.CV

Medical Image Understanding Improves Survival Prediction via Visual Instruction Tuning

Accurate prognostication and risk estimation are essential for guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing patient management. While radiologist-assessed features from CT scans provide valuable indicators of disease severity and outcomes, interpreting such images requires expert knowledge, and translating rich visual information into textual summaries inevitably leads to information loss. In this work, we propose a vision-language framework for 3D CT image understanding that leverages large-scale open-sourced CT images paired with radiology reports through visual instruction tuning. This pre-training enables the model to learn clinically meaningful visual-textual representations, which can then be adapted to downstream survival prediction tasks. By incorporating a survival prediction head on top of the pre-trained model, our approach improves survival prediction from CT images and clinical data while generating clinically meaningful language responses to predefined questions. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms baseline methods in survival prediction, particularly, when clinical data alone is less predictive. The code will be released upon acceptance.

Xixi Liu, Jorge Lazo, Andreas Hallqvist +8

Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden

Clinical Outcome Prediction Medical VLMs Multimodal Survival Analysis Computed Tomography Mortality Prediction Multimodal Instruction Tuning+1

Mar 9, 2026cs.LG

Data-Driven Priors for Uncertainty-Aware Risk Prediction of Clinical Deterioration using Multimodal Data

Safe predictions are a crucial requirement for integrating predictive models into clinical decision support systems. One approach to improving trustworthiness is to enable models to express uncertainty about individual predictions. However, current machine learning models frequently lack reliable uncertainty estimation, hindering real-world deployment. This limitation is particularly evident in multimodal settings, where models must effectively integrate heterogeneous information. In this work, we propose MedCertAIn, a predictive uncertainty framework that leverages multimodal clinical data to improve model performance and reliability for in-hospital mortality risk prediction as an indicator of patient deterioration. We design data-driven priors over neural network parameters using a hybrid strategy that considers cross-modal similarity in self-supervised latent representations and modality-specific data corruptions. We train and evaluate the models with such priors using clinical time-series and chest X-ray images from the publicly available datasets MIMIC-IV and MIMIC-CXR. Our results show that MedCertAIn achieves competitive predictive performance and substantial gains in selective prediction compared with the evaluated deterministic and stochastic baselines. These findings highlight the promise of data-driven priors in advancing robust, uncertainty-aware AI tools for high-stakes clinical applications. Our implementation is publicly available at: https://github.com/jlaitue/medcertain.

L. Julián Lechuga López, Tim G. J. Rudner, Farah E. Shamout

Tandon School of Engineering, New York University · New York University Abu Dhabi · University of Toronto

Bayesian Neural Networks Uncertainty Quantification Selective Prediction Mortality Prediction Clinical Risk Prediction Multimodal Learning

Dec 17, 2025cs.LG

Improving Fairness of Large Language Model-Based ICU Mortality Prediction via Case-Based Prompting

Accurately predicting mortality risk in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is critical for clinical decision-making. Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly explored for clinical prediction using structured medical data, but their outputs may exhibit demographic disparities. Mitigating such disparities without degrading predictive performance remains challenging. We systematically investigate demographic bias in LLM-based ICU mortality prediction and propose Case-Based Prompting (CAP), a training-free framework designed to improve the empirical balance between predictive performance and subgroup fairness. CAP retrieves clinically similar historical misprediction and demographic-sensitive cases with known outcomes and incorporates them as case-level contextual evidence. We further evaluate model discrimination, subgroup fairness, and feature-dependence consistency. On MIMIC-IV, CAP improved AUROC from 0.806 to 0.873 and AUPRC from 0.497 to 0.694 compared with the Baseline Prompt. CAP also reduced several subgroup disparities, particularly for sex and White-Black comparisons, although age-related disparities remained non-negligible. Controlled demographic-information ablations showed that removing demographic information did not uniformly improve both predictive performance and subgroup fairness, indicating distinct performance-fairness patterns rather than a uniform benefit from demographic suppression. Feature-dependence analysis showed generally consistent expressed clinical factor patterns across demographic subgroups. These findings suggest that CAP is a promising inference-time strategy for LLM-based clinical prediction under the evaluated retrospective setting. Further validation across additional LLMs, external datasets, and prospective clinical scenarios is required before deployment.

Gangxiong Zhang, Yongchao Long, Yuxi Zhou +2

School of Computer Science and Engineering, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin, China · Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University, Beijing, China · DCST, BNRist, RIIT, Institute of Internet Industry, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China +1

Algorithmic Fairness Few-Shot Prompting Demographic Bias in Language Models Mortality Prediction

Nov 25, 2024eess.IV

Contrastive Deep Learning Reveals Age Biomarkers in Histopathological Skin Biopsies

As global life expectancy increases, so does the burden of chronic diseases, yet individuals exhibit considerable variability in the rate at which they age. Identifying biomarkers that distinguish fast from slow ageing is crucial for understanding the biology of ageing, enabling early disease detection, and improving prevention strategies. Using contrastive deep learning, we show that skin biopsy images alone are sufficient to determine an individual's age. We then use visual features in histopathology slides of the skin biopsies to construct a novel biomarker of ageing. By linking with comprehensive health registers in Denmark, we demonstrate that visual features in histopathology slides of skin biopsies predict mortality and the prevalence of chronic age-related diseases. Our work highlights how routinely collected health data can provide additional value when used together with deep learning, by creating a new biomarker for ageing which can be actively used to determine mortality over time.

Kaustubh Chakradeo, Pernille Nielsen, Lise Mette Rahbek Gjerdrum +5

University of Copenhagen, Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark · University of Copenhagen, Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, Copenhagen, 1353, Denmark · Technical University of Denmark, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Denmark +7

Computational Pathology Mortality Prediction