Prices

Large language model (LLM) pricing agents may respond to how market data is presented, even when its numerical values remain unchanged. We introduce market signal injection (MSI), an attack that manipulates numerical formatting, competitor ordering, or qualitative market commentary without issuing explicit instructions. We evaluate nine open-weight models in simulated Bertrand duopoly and triopoly markets and three proprietary models in duopoly markets. Sentiment-based attacks produce the largest behavioral shifts, which propagate to other firms and alter profits and consumer surplus. Susceptibility varies across model families, and larger models are not consistently more robust. Matched neutral-text controls and a rule-based agent support a framing-based account of these shifts under the fixed demand parameters of our simulation. Episode-held-out probes distinguish baseline from attacked activations in all eleven re-evaluated model--condition pairs: linear AUC is 1.00 and MLP AUC ranges from 0.93 to 0.99. This separability does not by itself identify harmful pricing decisions. Input canonicalization removes the tested sentiment attacks, while decision boundary anchoring, which combines prompt constraints with output projection, provides partial mitigation under the tested adaptive attacks. These results identify data presentation as an attack surface for LLM pricing agents and motivate defenses that account for interactions among agents.

Large language models (LLM) deployed as autonomous pricing agents may sustain supracompetitive prices through tacit coordination. We develop a causal graph divergence framework that separately measures structural faithfulness and intent faithfulness of LLM pricing agents in Bertrand competition. Across nine LLMs under duopoly and triopoly conditions, collusive behavior and chain-of-thought (CoT) faithfulness dissociate along both dimensions: the most collusive model accurately reports cooperative intent yet reasons structurally unfaithfully, while the most structurally faithful model sustains supra-Nash pricing under both market structures. These findings establish that CoT monitoring alone cannot serve as a standalone safeguard against algorithmic collusion.

Payment operations are a critical financial infrastructure, but the value of large language models in this domain remains unclear because payment rules change quickly, evidence is fragmented, and decisions depend on transaction state, participant role, region, and payment rail. Existing benchmarks do not isolate whether failures come from missing payment-rule knowledge, poor use of supplied evidence, or brittleness under imperfect harness inputs. We introduce BENCHCOMPASS, a payment-domain benchmark whose construction pipeline builds scenario-grounded tasks from typed evidence packs, applies LLM-based quality checks, creates task-input attack variants, and reserves final item admission for domain experts. The release contains an expert-reviewed Pro benchmark covering payment knowledge, context-grounded scenario reasoning, and Attacked Open robustness, plus a lower-assurance Normal pool for inspection and future curation. Across 16 model variants, BENCHCOMPASS shows qualitatively different failure modes: missing parametric payment knowledge, incomplete reasoning over supplied rules, and failure to reject plausible but invalid workflows. The benchmark remains unsaturated: the best frontier model reaches 89.6% on Open Context-Grounded Reasoning and 81.7% under attacked inputs, while a representative 32B open-weight model reaches 69.8% and 42.6%. Benchmark data and code are available at https://github.com/ant-intl/BenchCompass.

Graph-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) can help answer questions that require information from many documents. However, building a graph often requires many language-model calls during ingestion. It is therefore important to ask whether its quality gains justify the additional cost. We present EffiRAG, a graph-based RAG system designed to reduce this cost. It uses the graph to locate relevant passages and generates answers from the original text. This design preserves source information while keeping graph construction and query processing lightweight. We evaluate EffiRAG on UltraDomain, which contains 120 open-ended questions from four domains. Compared with LightRAG-hybrid, EffiRAG produces the preferred answer on 93 questions. LightRAG is preferred on 7, and the remaining 20 are splits. EffiRAG also reduces total system cost by 57 percent, from USD 0.952 to USD 0.408. The cost includes language-model calls during ingestion and querying. The advantage remains as the corpus grows. At 10 and 20 documents per domain, EffiRAG uses a lightweight, non-LLM filter to skip low-salience chunks. It remains preferred over LightRAG-hybrid. It costs 4.2 times and 4.5 times less, respectively. The comparisons identify different quality-cost trade-offs. Graph-based RAG systems should therefore be evaluated by both answer quality and cost. The results favor graph structure that locates and preserves source evidence.

The rapid diffusion of generative artificial intelligence raises privacy, latency, and performance concerns that motivate a shift toward "local-first" AI, where inferences are performed on the user's device instead of on remote cloud servers. This paradigm also places a significant computational load on battery-powered smartphones, potentially shortening battery life and increasing the overall replacement rate of mobile devices. This paper presents a systematic study of the energy consumption, performance, and accuracy of on-device large language model (LLM) inference. We evaluate 18 models from different model families, sizes, and quantization levels, on two modern smartphones and on a server, using the respective state-of-the-art for such deployments. We measure the energy per generated token, inter-token latency, model accuracy, and battery-cycle consumption. Our results show that (i) on-device inference is on average 3 times less energy-efficient than batched server inference; (ii) the relationship between quantization bit-width and energy per token is non-monotonic, with energy sweet spots on both tested smartphones; (iii) eight out of 18 model configurations lie on the Pareto front of accuracy and energy-efficiency, allowing practitioners to build battery-aware model routers; and (iv) realistic modeling assumptions do not allow local inference to be less environmentally impacting per token than batched server inference, with 88--90% of that impact attributable to device embodied carbon rather than electricity consumption. These findings challenge the premise that local AI is more sustainable than cloud inference, and motivate the need for context-aware and life-cycle-aware model selection when deploying edge AI on battery-powered mobile platforms.

This work presents a proof of concept for auditable LLM-assisted medical billing verification based on a decision-basis contract. The contract separates deterministic checks of versioned fee-catalog rules from LLM-based assessment of free-text documentation. The deterministic layer resolves the applicable catalog release and checks code availability, quantity limits, and exclusions. The semantic layer classifies each claimed item as supported, contradicted, or missing required information. Support and contradiction require a verbatim evidence span; unavailable rule context, unsuccessful assessment, or missing required evidence prevents support through fail-closed abstention. We evaluated four locally run open-weight models on a synthetic catalog and 36 curated cases under the contract, an ablation without explicit documentation requirements, and an end-to-end baseline. Outcome agreement varied across models and showed no consistent advantage over the baseline. Explicit documentation requirements improved identification of missing information for all four models. The evidence gate also exposed cases in which correct raw judgments lacked valid evidence and were converted to incomplete decision-basis entries. The results show how explicit decision records can make rule findings, documentation judgments, and abstention reasons inspectable. Evaluation on real catalogs, independently annotated documentation, and with human reviewers is required to assess practical value.

This work considers multi-agent coordination with arbitrary information networks among the agents using a game-theoretic approach. A system designer aims to assign local utility functions to the agents to guide their actions toward a desired system objective. The performance of the assigned local utilities is measured by the well known pure price of anarchy (pPoA) metric that equals the ratio of the system objective at the worst pure Nash equilibrium of the corresponding game to the optimal system objective. Our aim is to derive the utility functions which optimize the pPoA-based performance guarantees for any given information network and system objective. We develop a linear program that derives the optimal pPoA for any arbitrary information network and arbitrary system objective. Our work is the first to solve optimal utility design for arbitrary networks; our techniques generalize previous approaches which considered only the full-information setting. For supermodular objective functions, we prove that counterintuitively, a fully communication-denied utility design is optimal irrespective of the original information network. For submodular system objectives, an exhaustive numerical analysis suggests that the optimal utility design is robust to communication failures even for this case. When the system objective is weighted maximum coverage, the marginal contribution utility design provably optimizes the pPoA for a wide variety of information networks of interest.

We introduce MetroLLM-Bench, a 955-case benchmark for testing language models as the policy layer of a transit kiosk. It covers six real metro systems, ranging from 37 to 414 stations, and eleven categories that include routing, fare calculation, disruptions, accessibility, and adversarial input. In each case, the model must call structured tools and submit a machine-renderable terminal state containing an outcome, a per-ticket fare quote when applicable, and a kiosk action. Fourteen deterministic scoring components form Tier 1; eight semantic-quality components form Tier 2, six of which use a language-model judge. We report Tier 1 and the combined score of both tiers. A stratified 75/25 split reserves 717 cases for training-data generation and 238 for held-out evaluation. We evaluate twenty-six models from six vendors, of which twenty-three are ranked. On the held-out partition, a 4B Qwen 3.5 student trained through parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) exceeds both GPT-5.6 tiers on Tier 1 (91.3 against 90.6 and 90.0) and matches GPT-5.4 full at maximum reasoning effort (91.4), with a 2.6 GB Q4_K_M footprint. Larger 9B and 27B students provide no further Tier 1 improvement over the 4B student at this training scale. Across the four Qwen sizes, the PEFT gain over the corresponding base model decreases from +7.03 points at 2B (three training seeds) to -0.91 at 27B; every seed shows the same direction at every size. A deterministic rule-based baseline reaches 84.6 on Tier 1, with the remaining language-model advantage concentrated in policy adaptation, compound scenarios, accessibility, and temporal reasoning. Muse Glimmer 30B leads the composite ranking, and serving configuration alone moves the Qwen 3.5-to-3.8 comparison by 2.7 Tier 1 points. The benchmark, harness, reproduction guide, and fine-tuned students are released at https://github.com/continker/metrollm-bench.

The rapid evolution of video generation has shifted the paradigm from pure text-driven to multi-conditional controllable generation, with reference images now widely adopted as conditional inputs to achieve superior spatiotemporal consistency. While these reference images serve as powerful visual anchors that significantly enhance controllability, their impact on safety remains largely unexplored. In this work, we reveal the visual anchoring effect: by enforcing consistency, the mechanism prevents the generated content from drifting away from the original harmful intent, thereby eliminating the model's natural safety escape route from harmful to benign content. Consequently, visual anchors inherently increase the safety risk---this is the price of consistency. Building on this insight, we propose Decoupling Intent via Visual Anchors (DIVA), a training-free multimodal jailbreak framework for video generation that exploits this vulnerability. DIVA decouples harmful intent into a static visual anchor image and a dynamic motion text prompt, and employs dual-criteria selection to balance attack stealthiness with semantic preservation. Extensive experiments across various leading commercial platforms and mainstream open-source video generation models demonstrate that DIVA achieves a substantially higher Attack Success Rate than existing text-only methods. To facilitate future research, we additionally contribute TI2VSafetyBench, the first safety benchmark for multi-conditional video generation.

This paper compares rule-based and learning-based pricing mechanisms for peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading in residential photovoltaic communities. The rule-based benchmarks comprise bill-sharing as an ex post allocation mechanism, the mid-market rate, and supply-demand-ratio pricing. The reinforcement-learning (RL) formulation is implemented through a Deep Q-Network and evaluated under multiplier-based and learnable SDR-shaped pricing, with a fixed-parameter SDR variant as a non-learning control. Performance is assessed through community savings together with complementary financial and operational indicators. In the base PV-only configuration, the rule-based benchmarks outperform the best RL policy. With battery energy storage, evaluated for the RL policies only, community savings under the best RL policy increase from EUR 734.23 to EUR 978.52. Across the learning-based modes and in both configurations, SDR-shaped pricing outperforms the multiplier-based parameterization considered. The results indicate that rule-based pricing remains highly competitive wherever the two families are compared directly, and that storage substantially improves the learning-based outcomes under this accounting, while the distribution of benefits remains heterogeneous across households.

Price extraction from websites is a key task for market monitoring, price comparison, and business analytics in e-commerce. Existing approaches can be broadly divided into four groups, and understanding their trade-offs in accuracy and scalability is essential for selecting suitable extraction strategies. Classical methods rely on manually written wrappers and rule induction from labeled pages, offering high accuracy but adapting poorly to structural changes and requiring considerable maintenance effort. Browser-based methods, using tools such as Selenium and Puppeteer, handle dynamic JavaScript content but consume large computational resources and scale poorly. Browserless approaches retrieve HTML directly via HTTP requests, offering significant gains in speed and cost, but rely on rules calibrated for specific sites. Methods based on machine learning and large language models offer adaptability but require training data and substantial computation. Our main contribution is an adaptive browserless price extraction system that improves robustness to structural differences between websites. We implemented a baseline architecture combining HTML page fragmentation with syntactic, semantic, and frequency rules, and extended it in two ways: a Bayesian approach that dynamically updates rule weights, and a genetic algorithm that optimizes the system's global parameters. This hybrid scheme increased precision from 77.2% to 87.3% and reduced average per-page processing time by approximately 14% relative to the baseline, confirming it as a competitive alternative to manually tuned browserless solutions and to more resource-intensive browser- or LLM-based methods, offering high extraction accuracy at low computational cost.

Recent advances in LLM agents enable a new paradigm for asset pricing, which we call Agentic Empirical Asset Pricing (AEAP): systems that autonomously conduct the scientific discovery process itself. We define AEAP and identify its core building blocks. Existing evaluation practices backtest only the outputs (factors or trades), not the autonomous discovery system that produced them. We focus on factor discovery, contributing a reference architecture, a rigorous evaluation standard for discovered factors, and a method for out-of-sample backtesting the discovery system. As a concrete instance of that architecture, we evaluate SEADS against five re-implemented baselines on two US equity panels using this standard: no single metric ranks the systems consistently, motivating evaluation on multiple axes at once. A separate rolling re-execution then asks the complementary question of whether the discovery process itself, not one static output, is reliable. We also report negative findings and limitations that surface further evaluation pitfalls for future AEAP systems.

An LLM application often sells or internally allocates several service products: a small or premium model, a short or long token cap, and possibly multiple posted prices. The operational decision is not merely which model answers a prompt. A price changes purchase probability, a token cap changes both user value and the tail of resource consumption, and accepted requests compete for shared compute and premium-model capacity. Demand and output length are initially uncertain, while an offline model may provide useful but imperfect predictions. We formulate sequential pricing and admission with stochastic resource consumption. Each arriving request belongs to an observable segment. The platform chooses a product--price pair or makes no offer; purchase, revenue, and resource use are then random. An offline predictor supplies a uniform, validated error radius for every segment--product cell. We propose Prediction-Clipped UCB (PCUCB), which intersects the offline prediction interval with an online confidence interval, evaluates products using resource shadow prices, and reserves a sample-path envelope before commitment. The prior gives a fast start when accurate, while online learning protects the platform when predictions are coarse. The analysis is modular. On a simultaneous confidence event, regret against a buffered fluid benchmark is bounded by a pacing term plus the cumulative diameter of the intersected intervals. For $J$ segment-product cells and prediction radius $\varepsilon$, this yields $$\widetilde O\left( \sqrt{T}+(1+\barΛ) \min\{T\varepsilon,\sqrt{JT}\} \right),$$ where $\barΛ$ bounds operational shadow prices. Thus the algorithm smoothly interpolates between an almost full-information regime and learning from scratch. Hard feasibility holds on every sample path through reservation envelopes.

Fleets of LLM agents now externalize effects that cannot be fully undone: they move money, deploy code, delete data, and disclose information. Current controls check one effect at a time, so a fleet of individually authorized agents can overdraw its principal's risk under a shared trigger while every local gate stays correct. We propose the irreversibility budget, a cumulative account of residual value-at-risk that a trusted runtime maintains for each principal across agents, workflows, and tenants. Treating irreversibility as a first-class resource, the runtime charges each effect its residual loss below the agent and denies the marginal effect once the aggregate would overdraw the budget. Getting the price right is hard, because effects are heterogeneous, adversarially declared, and correlated. We perform a controlled study in which per-effect gates admit fleet-level overdraws of up to 48 times the tenant's risk limit while the budget holds every correctly charged run within that limit. Conservative, dependency-aware pricing remains the central open problem for a deployable design.

In online retailing, when a product sells out, a retailer often sees only the units sold, not how many customers would have bought it had inventory been available. However, the inventory level determines how much demand is revealed, and this information can influence subsequent decisions and future profits. We study an online selling problem in which, in each round, the seller observes a market context and then makes pricing and stocking decisions based on censored sales data from previous rounds. The challenge is to learn a context-dependent pricing and stocking policy without assuming a particular formula for demand or observing realized profit. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a Mean-Calibrated Kernel UCB (MCK-UCB) algorithm that turns each incomplete sales record into a reliable guide for both inventory and price decisions, using data from past rounds with similar market conditions. This design allows us to learn while serving customers, without a separate exploration phase or the need to recover all demand hidden by stockouts. We prove the minimax optimality of the proposed algorithm, with strictly faster rates when expected profit varies more smoothly with price. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Posted prices for AI inference have fallen steadily since 2024, yet the measured speed of that fall depends almost entirely on the method of measurement. This paper constructs quality-adjusted price indices for the AI inference market from public data. The panel assembles 21,024 posted-price observations across 3,208 models and 86 providers and joins them to 4,605 benchmark scores through a latent quality index estimated from benchmark response patterns, so the quality ladder of the hedonic tradition is built here from evaluations in place of product characteristics. Measured by the matched-model methods that statistical agencies apply to software, inference prices fell at 0.10 log points a year. The quality-adjusted index fell at 0.73, so 87% of the decline is invisible to current methods, with direct consequences for measured competition, concentration and productivity in this market. Counted per completed task, moreover, the buyer's price stopped falling. Reasoning models raised token consumption faster than token prices fell, and the seller's and buyer's prices accordingly diverged. A pre-registered validity audit disciplines the quality measure and yields the sharpest result. Excluding contamination-flagged benchmarks leaves model rankings intact at 0.998 yet moves the index by 0.49 log points a year, so the leaderboard-stability arguments standard in AI evaluation offer no defence of economic statistics built on benchmarks. Prices, quality and the audit are fully reproducible from public sources at zero cost.

Short observational pricing panels often contain many data points but very few actual price changes. This paper shows that this sparsity creates a hidden source of error that standard statistical methods miss. When estimating price effects, most of the uncertainty does not come from sample size within a panel, but from the specific history of price movements observed. Standard confidence intervals fail because they only measure variation within the panel, ignoring this broader design-level error. Using simulations, we find that this cross-design variation accounts for most of the estimation error, causing standard methods to significantly understate uncertainty. First, we show that cross-design error decreases predictably as the total volume of price variation increases. Second, adding more data from regions that share the same price trends does not fix the issue; true precision improves only when combining data across units with independent price trajectories. Third, applying a simple variance-component adjustment across independently priced units restores accurate statistical coverage. We confirm these findings in real-world store scanner data, showing that products and pricing zones behave as if they have far fewer independent price movements than their raw counts suggest. Ultimately, reliable inference in passive pricing data requires genuine, independent variation, which can be achieved through controlled regional price testing.

Consider a firm that surveys its competition for a particular agentic task and seeks to offer superior accuracy at every price point. A firm that Pareto-dominated its competitors would leave no rational customer a reason to buy elsewhere. This paper shows a path to this kind of capability by evolving multi-LLM Python agents from training pools of at most 100 examples. Given a priced menu of nine LLM endpoints; brief documentation of the task, objective, and API; a simple seed agent; and an operator-chosen per-problem cost target--usually set at an incumbent's own price--RoboPhD, an evolutionary meta-agent, evolves complete agent programs that attack the public frontiers of two semantically dissimilar tasks point by point: DS-1000 (execution-checked code generation) and PaperFindingBench (LLM-judged scientific document retrieval). On public leaderboards for each task, the evolved agents hold every Pareto-frontier slot but one, including Pareto domination of both the top-scoring and the lowest-cost competing points.

We study a large language model (LLM) service in which a provider chooses a per-token price and a default reasoning-token allocation, while a user may accept the default, customize the allocation, or exit. Larger allocations can improve accuracy but increase token cost and latency. We model this interaction as a Stackelberg game and derive the user's unique optimal customized allocation in closed form. For any price, the acceptable defaults form either an empty set or a compact interval. We characterize the provider's optimal default through a three-regime rule, reduce equilibrium computation to a one-dimensional price optimization, and prove the existence of the equilibrium. We further show that defaults affect the implemented reasoning allocation only when users value the convenience of avoiding customization; otherwise, every service-providing outcome implements the user's optimal customized allocation. Experiments with two compact open-weight reasoning models on five mathematics and science benchmarks support the accuracy-token model and show how model and task characteristics determine equilibrium prices, defaults, and reasoning allocations.

Maintaining price consistency and executing an Every Day Low Price strategy is critical for global retailers. However, with catalogs spanning millions of active items, manual governance of price relationships is infeasible. Inconsistent pricing across item variants distorts customer value perception and cannibalizes sales. To address this, we present a scalable, context-aware Multi-Agent Framework designed to automate the construction of "Lines and Ladders" pricing taxonomies. Our framework employs specialized LLM agents to construct these coherent pricing structures by identifying key attributes, extracting multi-modal values, and applying hierarchical grouping logic. Evaluated on real-world enterprise data and deployed in production, our 3-Agent system achieves an F1-score of 0.83 for Lines, outperforming single-agent baselines by mitigating cognitive overload. The system achieves >90% precision and >75% recall in Food & Consumables, and 80.2% assignment accuracy in the unstructured General Merchandise catalog.

We study new algorithms for Contextual Bandits with Knapsack. In these problems, there are finitely many types of customers, products, and resources. Each product is made from a fixed combination of resources, and resources have finite capacity. A decision maker must assign each arriving customer one out of a set of multiple possible products. Every assignment of a customer to a product will generate a random reward, which equals an unknown linear function of customer and product features, plus a noise term. The objective is to jointly learn the mean reward function, and to make online assignments to minimize the expected revenue loss relative to an optimal policy that knows the reward function. We propose a natural and simple extension of the Upper-Confidence-Bound (UCB) family of algorithms and apply re-optimization techniques. We show that by taking advantage of re-optimization, our algorithm achieves an average regret of $O(\frac{(\ln T)^3}{T})$ where $T$ is the horizon length. Our bound significantly reduces the $O(\frac{1}{\sqrt{T}})$ bound in the literature for closely related dynamic-pricing problems that are based on re-optimization.

A bidder can quietly buy a stake in a company before making an offer for it. That stake, a toehold, is supposed to pay for itself twice: it makes the bidder willing to bid harder, and it frightens rivals into staying out of the fight. The first effect is arithmetic. The second is what would justify the cost and exposure of taking one at all. Yet toeholds are rare in practice, a standing puzzle. We ask whether that second effect is there once the contest is modelled as several rounds of escalating offers rather than the single exchange classical models assume. We turn it into a game a computer can solve, and certify the answers to an accuracy a referee can check. Three findings. The auction fixes what the toehold-holder earns but not how it bids: the same contest supports a bidder who opens aggressively against a rival who folds, and one who opens cheaply against a rival who does not, with the same profit either way. Aggressive preemptive bidding still appears when the toehold is removed entirely, so it comes from bidding in public and in turns, not from owning the stake. And the tidy "bigger toehold, more deterrence" relationship holds only in a contest cut short after one round; give it a real second round and it stops responding. So the two reasons to buy a toehold do not fare alike. The profit reason holds up; the deterrence reason does not, which suggests why toeholds may be rarer than theory predicts, alongside the procedural costs of disclosure and price impact that this model omits. A warning follows for anyone computing economics from a game solver: solve this auction once and it returns a confident figure for what a preemptive bid is worth; solve it again from a different start and it returns a different one, equally converged. We also report which solvers cope with contests of this shape, including versions too large to enumerate. Code is released.

Intraday market manipulation is hard to detect because its footprint is brief, buried in millions of quotes, and statistically similar to ordinary volatility. Detectors reach high recall only by flagging so many other days that measured precision collapses, producing alerts no regulator can act on. We show that this manipulation leaves a distinctive dynamic signature: a pump-and-crash pattern visible in the velocity of market state, rather than its level. We build a minute-level detection pipeline, strictly partitioned in time, based on smoothed state velocity: option-Delta velocity for index options and price velocity for equities. We explain every alert with SHAP attribution. We hold the test period strictly out-of-sample and fix all thresholds before evaluation. On the locked Indian BANKNIFTY index-options test, the plain autoencoder recovers 10 of 10 regulator-identified manipulation days. Conditioning detection on market regimes inferred by a hidden Markov model yields an instructive negative result. The regimes are descriptively distinct, but using them trades recall for precision. Under the closed-world assumption that unlabeled days are normal, precision remains near 25%. The same dynamic appears in thinly traded U.S. equities (SEC v. Patel). The shape of the signature survives the transfer; its velocity magnitude does not. A pump-reversal shape score ranks the complaint's alleged manipulation days with AUC 0.91 (ARQQ) and 0.81 (ACY). On the ARQQ worked example, the score peaks inside the complaint's documented minute window. Finally, exact SHAP attribution over every alert shows that unconfirmed alerts share the regulator-identified days' attribution profile (cosine similarity 0.99). The precision ceiling is consistent with incomplete enforcement labels rather than detector failure. What transfers across markets and instrument types is the dynamic signature itself.

Many social services assign scarce resources, such as housing assistance or hospital interventions, to people who arrive one at a time: each arrival must receive a decision immediately, and the long-run usage of every resource must stay within its capacity. We study how to learn such an assignment policy from logged observational data. The standard pipeline is decision-blind: fit one outcome model per arm by regression, price each capacitated resource from the fitted models, and assign each arrival the arm whose predicted outcome minus price is largest. We instead train the outcome models end-to-end, differentiating an off-policy estimate of the deployed policy's value through the dual prices themselves. We study two formulations: an exact nonconvex one, and a convex relaxation whose optimum always satisfies the capacity constraints in expectation and which is suboptimal by at most a term linear in the smoothing temperature and logarithmic in the number of arms. Every method is evaluated in a queueing simulation with resources replenished at their capacity rates. Across six datasets, the two end-to-end variants take the top slots on a deployment-adjusted value index at every delay cost, including zero; when capacities are binding, decision-blind baselines frequently violate them and incur much longer queueing delays. On the largest dataset, a hospital cohort of seventy thousand patients, end-to-end training also achieves significantly higher policy value, a margin that survives a capacity-matched neural baseline. Flexible decision-blind regression remains the stronger pure predictor where ground truth is measurable; end-to-end training is best suited to settings where resources are genuinely scarce and feasibility matters.

On two-sided content platforms, symmetric two-sided isolation (assigning matched fractions of creators and viewers to isolated treatment and control submarkets) is widely used for creator-side and cold-start experiments because it removes cross-arm marketplace interference. Isolation, however, thins each viewer's candidate catalog, and intuition suggests the resulting engagement cost should fade as the platform grows: a small fraction of a vast catalog is still vast. We show that, in an order-statistics model of engagement, whether this intuition holds depends on the upper tail of match quality. Extreme-value theory yields tail-class loss laws with a sharp dichotomy: for light or bounded tails the loss vanishes as the candidate pool grows, whereas under heavy tails it converges to a size-independent constant, so expanding the candidate pool, even by orders of magnitude, does not asymptotically eliminate the cost. Evidence from two production experiments on a platform with millions of active creators is consistent with this picture: a pure A/A traffic sweep reveals a measurable, depth-graded engagement cost; a one-sided catalog ablation independently shows that per-viewer thinning contributes to the loss; and a tail index calibrated on the small exploration pool predicts an effect consistent with the one observed in the far larger full-catalog ablation. Isolation thus carries a price that experimenters should budget for, like any other cost. We give practitioners a preflight procedure that estimates it before launch, sizes traffic accordingly, and recommends a fallback design when the predicted cost exceeds a chosen tolerance.

We study contextual dynamic pricing with arbitrary covariate sequences and bounded, possibly nonbinary purchase quantities. Demand follows a semiparametric surplus-index model with an unknown linear valuation parameter and an unknown Hölder-smooth response. We impose neither concavity nor strong unimodality on revenue and allow nonunique optimal prices. We develop a pilot-corrected layered decision-partitioning policy that combines directional pilot estimation, local polynomial learning, predictable data assignment, and global action elimination. Pilot correction removes the first-order effect of valuation-parameter error, while permanent labels enable concentration under adaptive sampling. The policy attains the minimax smoothness-dependent horizon rate up to logarithmic factors; a matching lower bound already holds for a constant-context binary-demand subclass.

As search increasingly shifts toward LLM-driven answer engines, advertising is becoming embedded within the generated response itself and should therefore be evaluated for both user utility and commercial value. The key challenge is click-through intent: behavioural logs are unavailable, human annotation resists calibration, and frontier LLM judges conflate intent with linguistic fluency. These gaps compound, as principled pricing presupposes a continuous intent signal, while generating such a signal presupposes supervision that is currently unavailable. We construct the missing supervision through a psychologically grounded agent simulation framework, and distil it into a parameter-efficient evaluator that predicts click-through intent, together with the three companion dimensions of ad quality, as smooth, differentiable estimates. Validated through sign-certain behavioural perturbations, the evaluator surpasses frontier zero-shot judges on relevance sensitivity (79% versus 60-67%), tracks graded content degradation, generalises without error to 103 fictional products, and agrees with human preference in 86% of pairwise judgements across five annotators, with agreement rising in the evaluator's confidence. Upon its estimates we build the pricing layer directly, deriving the unique payment rule under which truthful bidding is optimal, demonstrating it on a best-of-k allocation, and extending the mechanism to non-monotone allocations. The same differentiable signal stands ready as a training objective for ad generation.

Distributed constraint optimization problems (DCOPs) provide a popular framework for distributed decision making under limited communication, but many real-world instances are too large to solve monolithically. We address this challenge from two complementary directions. We revisit the connection between DCOPs and potential games, and adapt modern online learning algorithms for equilibrium finding to DCOPs. We show that these algorithms are competitive with representative incomplete DCOP algorithms. We then turn to decomposition frameworks for large-scale DCOPs, motivated by large-scale decentralized satellite scheduling. We propose a new framework that separates a DCOP into two interacting subproblems: a high-level meta-DCOP for task allocation, and independent local optimization problems for scheduling. To couple the two levels, we develop a novel iterative pricing method that updates the meta-level utilities using feedback from the local optimizers. Combining our online learning methods with our iterative pricing framework, we obtain near-optimal performance on real-world decentralized satellite scheduling problem instances, fulfilling over 99% of observation requests compared with 87% for state-of-the-art baselines.

Automated code generation is becoming an important tool in quantitative finance, where large language models can generate option pricing implementations directly from mathematical model specifications. Validating such implementations, however, requires considerably more than conventional software testing: numerical pricing methods must remain mathematically consistent, numerically stable, and reliable across a wide range of model parameters. We introduce RIDGE, an autonomous validation framework in which generated pricing implementations are subjected to structured no-arbitrage tests, stress tests, benchmark comparisons, and consistency checks. Validation evidence is interpreted diagnostically, while the resulting knowledge is accumulated in a repository and reused across models and successive validation iterations. This enables systematic refinement of both the pricing implementation and the validation methodology. The framework is applied to five stochastic volatility models. Across these studies, all detected implementation defects are removed and, in two cases, the validation process reveals methodological limitations and motivates the development of alternative numerical methods. The supplementary material is available in the GitHub repository: https://github.com/ShQiangLiu/ridge.

We study the contextual dynamic pricing problem under non-stationarity, where a firm sells products to $T$ sequentially arriving consumers that behave according to an unknown demand model that can change over time. The demand model is assumed to be a generalized linear model (GLM), allowing for a feature vector in $\mathbb{R}^d$ that encodes products and consumer information. To achieve optimal revenue (i.e., least regret), the firm needs to learn and exploit the unknown GLMs while monitoring for potential changes. We propose a multiscale change-point detection based algorithm that achieves a regret of order $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{s_TdT}\wedge\{V_T^{1/3}d^{1/3}T^{2/3}+\sqrt{dT}\})$, where $s_T$ is the number of piecewise stationary segments and $V_T$ is a newly defined notion of design-adjusted variation budget of model parameters. Our algorithm is adaptive and does not require knowing $s_T$ or $V_T$. Moreover, to our knowledge, this is the first dynamic pricing algorithm that is adaptive to the nature of changes and achieves the best-of-both-worlds rate, thus closing a long-standing gap in the literature. We remark that, due to the varying contexts, existing works in the adaptive non-stationary bandit literature cannot be applied to achieve optimality for contextual dynamic pricing. The regret is further accompanied with a newly constructed minimax lower bound, confirming the optimality of our algorithm (up to logarithmic factors). Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to illustrate the efficiency and robustness of the proposed algorithm in non-stationary dynamic pricing.

Modern agentic AI systems combine multiple large language model agents with heterogeneous skills, yet most architectures either fix communication in advance or allow full broadcast. Both can be inefficient because token cost, latency, redundancy, and error propagation increase with the number of active agents and communication links. We model agent selection and communication as a cooperative game with task-conditioned net utility $U(C\mid x)=V(C\mid x)-\sum_{i\in C}c_i$, separating coalition-level costs from agent activation costs. We propose a marginal-value activation rule and greedy router, extend the model to optimize communication edges with per-edge costs, and use estimated Shapley values to predict which agents are worth contacting before and during execution. We connect the problem to submodular maximization and prove two limited guarantees: a curvature-refined bound for a monotone, cardinality-constrained special case, and a tight $1/2$-approximation, with a correction for signed objectives, for an unconstrained non-monotone case via double greedy. Neither guarantee applies directly to the main router, which remains a heuristic. We also prove a Shapley-submodularity sandwich bound linking the error of marginal-value routing to a per-agent diminishing-returns quantity. In synthetic experiments, greedy routing achieves $99.5$ of brute-force-optimal utility while activating $1.96$ of $8$ agents on average, compared with $38.8$ for full broadcast. Performance is robust to activation cost and redundancy weight but falls to $66$ under strong violations of submodularity or noisy value estimates. We distinguish the framework from Shapley pricing, hedonic coalition formation, and communication-graph pruning, and propose evaluation on real multi-agent LLM benchmarks.

Estimating contemporaneous bidirectional interactions from observational data is difficult because each outcome is endogenous to the other, while flexible regressions may capture only reduced-form dependence. This paper proposes SEM-DNN, a heteroscedastic neural simultaneous-equation estimator that learns reciprocal structural interactions without external instruments. Identification exploits conditional covariance diagonalization: when structural shocks have zero conditional means, are conditionally uncorrelated given predetermined covariates, and exhibit nonproportional conditional variances, only the true interaction coefficients diagonalize the conditional residual covariance across the feature space. The method jointly approximates nonlinear structural mean functions and feature-dependent variances using a diagonal Gaussian quasi-likelihood that incorporates the simultaneous-system Jacobian. We establish unique identification and positive-definite local curvature of the profiled population criterion and show that, under neural-profile compatibility conditions, the implemented neural criterion inherits this curvature despite nonunique network parameterizations. The coefficients admit a causal interpretation when the structural equations represent autonomous mechanisms that remain invariant under the relevant interventions. Monte Carlo experiments with nonlinear, high-dimensional nuisance functions and non-Gaussian shocks show that SEM-DNN recovers structural effects more reliably than parametric, kernel-based, and separate-equation neural alternatives as information increases, although at greater computational cost. An application to ready-to-eat cereal scanner data illustrates how the method can study contemporaneous price-sales feedback and assess identification strength, residual diagonalization, variance calibration, and optimization sensitivity.

A truckload carrier must accept or reject each load tender within seconds. The decision depends on fleet state, hours-of-service (HOS) clocks, and appointment windows. We model this as a weakly coupled dynamic program in which the resources relocate and carry clocks: serving a request moves the truck to a new market and depletes its clocks, and whether a truck can serve a request depends on its state. Occupancy-based reusable-resource models do not cover this setting. We build a real-time dual-price policy from the same Lagrangian relaxation that gives the problem's upper bound. Policy and bound come from one object, so every run reports a certified optimality gap. We prove three things. First, the certificate is valid for any duals, any discretization, and any surrogate quality. Second, the policy's same-time spatial-gradient rule is exactly fluid complementary slackness, and the policy is asymptotically optimal in the subcritical fluid regime; the fitted prices are also portable across sample paths, by linear-programming basis stability. Third, certificates have limits: per-resource Lagrangian slack can stay bounded away from zero at every fleet size. We exhibit a three-truck kernel with an exact rational certificate and a replication lemma. On a public closed-loop benchmark with thirty paired seeds, the policy -- which needs no rollout labels, only one offline dual solve -- beats a rollout-trained surrogate on two of three scenarios (tight: +2.0 pp, 95% CI [+0.5, +3.6], Wilcoxon p = 0.023; mild: +3.5 pp, CI [+2.4, +4.5]) and ties the third. It decides in 0.04-0.09 ms, three orders of magnitude faster than the Monte Carlo rollout teacher. Its certificates are stable across ten bounded instances per scenario, at 57-64% of optimal, within 3-6 points of what the 1000x-slower teacher certifies.

In bandit problems, standard regret-minimizing algorithms treat exploration as an amortized cost, which can expose early participants to unfair ex-ante losses in settings such as clinical trials. Recent work addresses this by evaluating the sequence of per-round expected rewards through the generalized $p$-mean, interpolating between utilitarian welfare ($p=1$), Nash welfare ($p\to0$), and Rawlsian fairness ($p\to-\infty$). Although tight guarantees are known for $p\ge0$, the strictly fair regime $q=-p>0$ remains unresolved because negative-power means are dominated by the smallest per-round rewards. For $σ$-sub-Gaussian rewards with nonnegative means, the best prior algorithm relied on uniform early exploration and achieved regret $O(k^{(q+1)/2}/\sqrt{T})$, while the only general lower bound was the classical $Ω(σ\sqrt{k/T})$. Thus it was unclear whether the extra dependence on $k$ was intrinsic to strict fairness or an artifact of uniform exploration. We close this gap by identifying the exact polynomial price of strict fairness. Using a needle-in-haystack construction, we prove an algorithm-independent lower bound $Ω(σ\sqrt{k^{\max(1,q)}/T})$; for $q>1$, this shows that the penalty $k^{q/2}$ is information-theoretically unavoidable. We then introduce \textsf{UCB-HARE} (Harmonic Anchored Rank Exploration), which replaces uniform exploration with an inverse-weighted harmonic rank schedule protected by a certified positive-mean anchor. Its regret is $\widetilde{O}(σ\sqrt{k^{\max(1,q)}/T})$, matching the lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments on synthetic instances confirm that \textsf{UCB-HARE} improves over uniform-exploration baselines, with gains increasing as $q$ grows.

For decades, static solution concepts (Nash, Correlated, and Coarse Correlated Equilibria) and the Price of Anarchy (PoA) have formed the bedrock of algorithmic game theory, with no-regret learning proving fast convergence to such game-theoretic equilibria. We show that reducing multi-agent learning to static equilibrium and black-box regret analysis obscures underlying dynamic disequilibrium and game theoretic bounds. First, interior Nash equilibria lack $C^1$ vector field information, meaning agents cannot distinguish aligned from strictly opposing incentives. Inheriting this geometry, the worst-case pure Nash equilibria dictating robust PoA bounds manifest as topologically unstable strict saddles, and in canonical congestion games, as global repellers supported on almost everywhere strictly dominated strategies. Anchoring efficiency guarantees to these unstable states causes algebraic sensitivity; we prove that accommodating all strictly positive affine costs renders the PoA unbounded. Furthermore, projecting learning trajectories onto the discrete simplex of correlated play systematically accommodates non-rationalizable behavior. Evaluating dynamics via Coarse Correlated Equilibria or proximal refinements fails to preclude strictly dominated strategies. Moreover, optimal $O(1/T)$ swap-regret minimization does not preclude macroscopic turbulence, manifesting as chaotic limit sets even in minimal games. Finally, we examine the non-atomic limit of congestion games. Though considered highly stable with tight sub-linear $Θ(p/\ln p)$ PoA bounds (where $p$ is the polynomial degree), we prove that under discrete-time learning, the unique equilibrium destabilizes into Li-Yorke chaos and global attractors whose time-averaged inefficiency degrades exponentially as $2^p$. These results necessitate re-evaluating worst-case equilibrium frameworks for dynamically grounded metrics.

Trader-facing dynamic fees are increasingly proposed for automated market makers (AMMs), but historical data do not identify how order flow would respond: trader-facing fees do not vary, trader types are latent, and a replayed tape is not a sequential decision environment. We therefore construct a minimal closed-loop simulator in which the missing signal exists by construction: two constant-product pools repriced by an equilibrium-inspired dynamic-fee rule, fee-sensitive noise flow, and closed-form CEX--AMM arbitrage. Equilibrium is used as a closure principle, not as an object the trader learns. Against a tuned benchmark ladder of schedule, planning, lookahead, and tabular policies, a small DQN is the only evaluated valid policy whose paired improvement over tuned one-step routing excludes zero. On a reserved final block of 1{,}000 seeds with completion forced to 1.0 for every policy, it reduces implementation shortfall under every tested intra-step ordering, by $13.3\bps$ of order notional under the pre-specified agent-last ordering, and the edge is concentrated in, and learned from, dynamic-fee environments: under constant fees the paired difference is indistinguishable from zero. The result is model-conditioned counterfactual evidence about execution control in AMMs, not evidence about historical traders, equilibrium play, or deployable profit.

Pricing food products to balance profitability with consumer welfare is a central challenge for retailers. Dynamic pricing is widely used to maximize revenue, yet most pricing models optimize business objectives while overlooking consumer fairness. This paper studies the risk of consumer exploitation under dynamic food pricing in Canada and proposes a methodology that embeds fairness constraints directly into retail sales forecasting. We model total retail trade sales with a log--log Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) specification, in which the coefficient on a product price is a sales elasticity, and pose the pricing problem as maximizing forecast sales subject to price bounds anchored to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). We solve this problem with both Linear Programming (LP) and Simulated Annealing (SA), under single-product and multi-product configurations. A key finding is that the fitted nominal elasticities are positive. As a result, an unconstrained sales-maximizer would push every price to its upper bound, and the CPI ceiling is the safeguard that prevents this. Simulated Annealing instead settles on conservative, interior prices that lower consumer cost while still meeting the sales target. We benchmark forecast accuracy against naive, seasonal-naive, ARIMA, and SARIMA baselines, and a CPI-deflated re-specification shows that the positive nominal elasticities are largely an inflation-driven artifact. The result is a transparent, fairness-aware pricing framework.

The escalating demand for Machine Learning (ML) training resources in recent years has resulted in a substantial gap between the high demand and the available supply. Efficient allocation of these scarce and expensive resources is crucial for organizations to maximize their return on investment. Existing resource allocation mechanisms, like Karma [OSDI'23], are designed to guarantee Pareto efficiency and max-min fairness in settings with dynamic (time-varying) user demands, but fail to preserve these key properties in the presence of demands with heterogeneous values. Given the ubiquity and inevitability of heterogeneity in organizational values of different workloads, effective resource allocation policies must accommodate these variations. In this paper, we describe the design, implementation, deployment, and theoretical analysis of Quota Marketplace, a market-based mechanism to efficiently allocate ML training chips (like GPUs), explicitly addressing scenarios with demands of heterogeneous value. We detail the implementation of this mechanism within Google and present metrics that demonstrate its impact. We also discuss many business-critical requirements that the Quota Marketplace handles quite effectively, and document the gains and opportunities it has unlocked. We establish theoretically how this market-based approach achieves the essential properties of Pareto efficiency and max-min fairness by allowing the users to express the value of their workloads and enabling dynamic resource pricing based on supply and demand fluctuations. Ultimately, the market facilitates resource allocation that aligns with organizational priorities.

We analyze how four forces restructure the AI industry over 2026-2030: the DRAM/HBM price surge, frontier-capable open-weight models (GLM-5.2), rapid inference-efficiency gains (near-Shannon-limit KV-cache compression, lightweight local runtimes), and the entry of Meta and xAI into compute resale on fleets bought before the memory repricing. Formulating inference economics in dollars per petabyte of bandwidth delivered ($/PB) -- model-agnostic for bandwidth-bound decode -- we show the entrant-incumbent cost gap never closes: a depreciation conveyor delivers newly amortized fleets to incumbents faster than hardware prices normalize (3.2x in 2026, 1.9x in 2027, re-widening to 3-4x by 2029-30). Training bifurcates into a luxury tier ($18-38B per frontier run by 2030) and a mass tier (previous-frontier parity via RL/distillation falling toward $5M). Solvency of the announced buildout is confined to a corridor requiring roughly 2x annual token-demand growth for four years with sticky premium pricing; a measurement critique shows public token trackers overstate monetizable demand, and all pre-Q2-2026 projections predate the industry's shift from token maximization to token minimization. A vintage-breakeven analysis finds 2026 and 2028-29 capacity each fatally exposed to one pricing regime, with only the 2027 vintage robust. A greenfield custom-silicon entrant removes the merchant margin but not the memory premium (central outcome: 25% success/34% mediocre/41% loss, improvable via staged go/no-go gates). China's LineShine LX2 -- domestic HBM on a standard ISA -- decouples its cost curve from the memory crisis. Scenario probabilities: Rotating Landlord Oligopoly 25%, Commoditization Crash 25%, Jevons Absorption 20%, System-Layer Re-differentiation 18%, Geopolitical Bifurcation 12%. Solvency now depends on monetized bandwidth demand, premium stickiness, and vintage ownership.

In this paper, we investigate whether a model-free RL agent can identify and exploit price manipulation opportunities more effectively than a traditional model-based approach that assumes correct specification of the data-generating process but relies on noisy parameter estimates. We consider a single-asset market in which prices evolve according to an Almgren-Chriss framework with non-linear permanent impact and linear temporary impact. We first establish the existence of price-manipulative strategies in discrete time and compute the optimal benchmark strategy using Sequential Least Squares Quadratic Programming under full information. We then compare two finite-sample learning approaches: a model-based procedure that estimates impact parameters from simulated execution data and an agnostic RL approach based on Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, trained directly on the same amount of data. For intermediate volatility, the RL agent successfully discovers profitable manipulative strategies without explicit knowledge of the underlying model, even when training data are quite limited. More importantly, RL consistently outperforms the model-based approach when parameter estimates are affected by sampling error, despite the latter benefiting from the correct model specification. For large volatility, all methods are unable to identify manipulation opportunities, while for small volatility, the model based approach outperforms RL. These findings highlight both the effectiveness of RL in complex control problems and the risks associated with deploying learning algorithms in financial markets without appropriate safeguards.

In liberalised railway systems, operators must set prices dynamically in an environment with partial observability, as they retain private information about their objectives and performance, where regulatory constraints prohibit communication or direct information exchange between competitors to prevent explicit collusion. Consequently, agents must learn to infer strategic interactions only from observable market data which presents a significant challenge for multi-agent reinforcement learning, where standard approaches typically treat observations as unstructured vectors, ignoring the underlying market topology that governs strategic interactions. To address this, an entity graph modelling approach is proposed, which represents the environment as a graph of operational units, rather than decision-making agents or static infrastructure, encoding competition, coordination, and connectivity relations between entities. Then, an extension of the multi-agent twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient algorithm with graph-based representation learning processes the features of the entities through a multi-layer relational graph convolutional network and aggregates them via a learnt attention mechanism. Experimental results in a rail pricing reinforcement learning environment show that this novel framework achieves higher revenue and stability in two different settings of increasing market complexity compared to a representative selection of relational and non-relational baselines. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/Kinrre/RelationalRailPricing-RL

Urban rail fare systems may be non-additive: the fare of a single paid journey from an origin to a destination can differ from the sum of fares over multiple legally separated journey legs. This paper presents LegalFarePlan, a fare-transparent route-planning framework that models legal exit-and-reentry operations as explicit, auditable constraints. Given a transit network, fare function, transfer rules, station-level exit/re-entry costs, an extra-time budget, and a split limit, the planner computes explainable route plans over paid journey segments. The artifact implements Dijkstra shortest-time and direct route-planner baselines, a greedy split heuristic, bounded exact label-setting, and Pareto-frontier search. Evaluation uses controlled synthetic data and a 57-station semi-synthetic benchmark with 360 OD pairs. On the semi-synthetic benchmark, bounded exact search identifies positive modeled fare reductions for 71.11% of OD pairs, with mean reduction 3.78 and maximum reduction 9.0 synthetic fare units under a 45-minute extra-time budget. These results demonstrate method behavior and reproducibility; they are not empirical conclusions about MTR or any transit operator.

We study the online routing problem in large language model serving, where requests arrive sequentially and must be dispatched to parallel decode workers under tight batch-size and KV-cache constraints. Unlike widely used routing heuristics that are not tied to explicit service-level objectives (SLOs) and offer limited control over latency-throughput trade-offs, we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework that formulates routing as an online linear programming with interpretable decision rewards. We apply an efficient bid-price control policy based on the online linear programming that admits requests when their SLO-weighted benefit exceeds their shadow prices. To meet millisecond decision requirements, we develop a warm-started, projected first-order updates that track the evolving dual shadow prices online with predictable runtime. We integrate our router into the Vidur simulator and demonstrate substantial improvements over standard baselines across multiple SLO regimes, including end-to-end latency, time-to-first-token, throughput, and tail performance. A big picture from our result: a science-based approach outperforms others based on heuristics.

Combinatorial optimization (CO) problems are difficult because certifiable discrete structure induces exponential search. One needs to search over the set exponentially many candidates to certify optimality, however, the structural feasibility of a path, packing, or cover can be verified in polynomial time once supplied. In this study, we introduce Neural Certificate Pricing (NCP) that exploits this asymmetry under an unsupervised learning framework. A neural network is trained to predict certificate-level dual prices, while a structured recovery layer constructs the induced primal marginal. NCP can be viewed as amortized separation: instead of enumerating violated inequalities, it learns the residual prices through which their aggregate effect enters recovery. When the certificate-consistency condition holds, the recovered marginal is globally feasible, and a local theory shows that first-order errors in the predicted price induce only second-order loss in objective value. Across three classes of CO problems, NCP either outperforms state-of-the-art neural baselines by large margins or matches them at a fraction of the computation time, and shows stronger out-of-distribution generalization.

Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned weather variables, diesel costs, and exchange rates across 12 vegetable varieties and 14 market centres from 2013 to 2019. A gradient-boosted ensemble model (XGBoost and LightGBM) was trained and optimised using Optuna, and unified and season-specific configurations were compared. Results show that season-specific models improve within-season fit, with the Yala-specific model achieving the highest R2 of 0.9420 (95% CI [0.690, 1.000]), while the unified model delivers the best overall predictive accuracy of 90.84% (95% CI [88.34%, 91.52%]) and an R2 of 0.9281 (95% CI [0.760, 1.000]). Notably, the unified model maintains 85.96% accuracy on a completely unseen 2024 hyperinflationary period without retraining, successfully tracking major price surges. These findings suggest that agricultural price movements in import-constrained markets are meaningfully predictable when models capture supply-chain dynamics, offering practical value for early warning and decision making by farmers, traders, and policymakers. Existing studies on Sri Lankan vegetable prices are confined to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) applied to single markets, with no supply-chain features, seasonal segmentation, or cross-regime validation.

In a changing decision problem, standard dynamic-regret analyses have often equated the cost of non-stationarity to how far loss moves. However, it is simultaneously possible for a loss sequence to travel far and retain the same optimal policy, or for a small movement in loss to force the optimal policy to change completely. Thus, the size of the movement through loss variation, transition variation, or comparator path length describe the adversary's motion, but not the cost of that motion to the control problem. For a more faithful analytic interpretation, this paper develops a normal-fan geometry for finite-horizon adversarial MDPs with fixed transitions. Occupancy measures form a polytope, and each loss vector exposes an optimal face of that polytope. Non-stationarity in rewards is therefore a path through the normal fan, where motion inside one cone leaves the optimal face unchanged, while crossing a wall may carry regret. We pose the notion of a face-crossing price, which is the minimum regret incurred by remaining on the previous optimal face under the new loss. For any learner that tracks the previous face, dynamic regret decomposes exactly into intrinsic priced face motion plus within-face selection error. The resulting theory separates consequential from harmless non-stationarity, where loss variation can be arbitrarily large at zero price, and identical one-coordinate variation can hide horizon-scale differences in regret.

We show that net demand for liquidity by algo strategies is identifiable from its trade and price history alone, with no knowledge of its signal or optimization problem. An exact multi-period regret decomposition implies that the sign of this statistic classifies a linear strategy as a net liquidity consumer or provider, recovering the Kyle (1985) informed-trader/market-maker dichotomy from observables alone. Under an AR(1) cost process, the same statistic equals the product of strategy size and the squared Roll (1984) implied spread, making the correction a direct proxy for prevailing illiquidity. Extending to endogenous price impact and aggregating across N correlated strategies yields a liquidity-balance condition whose violation produces welfare loss scaling as N squared, a closed-form fire-sale externality. We calibrate to CRSP equity data (2016-2025), tracking implied spreads through the COVID-19 and 2022 rate-shock episodes, with an estimator computable in O(Tnd) time.

Energy trading decisions depend not only on current market prices, but also on expected future market conditions, and operational constraints. This makes the state representation given to a reinforcement learning agent an important design choice. We study this in HydroDam, a pumped-storage arbitrage environment, using a fixed Double DQN agent. The environment, action space, reward function, network, and training protocol are kept fixed; only the market features are changed. We compare absolute price/calendar features, relative features that compare current prices with recent market history, forecast features, and all combinations of these three feature families. Policies are trained and selected using 2007--2011 Belgian day-ahead prices and evaluated on two test settings: a later same-market test set from 2012--2025 and 39 other ENTSO-E market zones. Absolute features only reaches 28.8% on the test set and a median 5.7% across zones. Relative-only and forecast-only states also stay below a rolling price-score heuristic in the cross-zone median. Combining feature families is much stronger: absolute + relative reaches 49.9% on the test set and a 39.8% cross-zone median, while absolute + relative + forecast reaches 55.6% and 47.5%. These results suggest that state representation is not a minor preprocessing choice in storage-trading RL, but a central part of the policy design: robust transfer requires combining price scale, recent relative price context, and short-horizon forecast information, rather than relying on any single feature family.

Traditional dynamic pricing models in large-scale e-commerce suffer from limited interpretability, poor utilization of unstructured information, and misalignment with long-term business objectives such as cumulative Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), Return on Investment (ROI) and milestone achievement. We propose AIGP, a novel framework that leverages a Large Language Model (LLM) prompted with domain knowledge, structured data and textual context to make interpretable, knowledge-aware pricing decisions. For efficient deployment while maintaining high-quality outputs, we employ supervised fine-tuning for knowledge distillation. Central to AIGP is the Long-Term Value Estimator (LTVE), trained via offline reinforcement learning on historical data, which serves as a reward model to score candidate pricing actions and select preference pairs for Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), thereby aligning the pricing policy with long-term business objectives. Extensive offline evaluations and large-scale online A/B tests on Tao Factory demonstrate that AIGP achieves significant improvements: +13.21% in GMV, +7.59% in ROI, and +8.20% in milestone achievement rate over 14 days compared to the production baseline, while simultaneously providing interpretable and transparent pricing rationales.

Agentic systems are changing how complex operational tasks are coordinated, introducing a new paradigm for connecting heterogeneous data sources and automating processes. Electric bus fleets provide a relevant test case. Their operation requires continuous coordination between service reliability, battery state-of-charge, charger availability, electricity prices, route-energy uncertainty, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) opportunities. This paper proposes an agentic aggregator framework that streamlines this decision environment by coupling an optimization-based electric bus scheduling model with supervisory agents for disturbance detection, tariff adaptation, and schedule evaluation. The optimization core enforces physical feasibility across routes, chargers, batteries, and V2G exchanges, while the agentic layer interprets changing operating conditions, triggers real-time re-optimization when needed, and defines how flexibility value is allocated between the aggregator and the public transport operator (PTO). A realistic depot case study evaluates day-ahead and real-time operations under profit-based and operation-based coordination modes, considering service delays, route-energy deviations, electricity price shocks, and combined disturbances. The results show that agentic aggregation can support adaptive fleet-grid coordination by maintaining feasible schedules, activating re-optimization selectively, and improving the use of charging and V2G flexibility. However, they also reveal a critical trade-off: the same agentic capability that reduces operational complexity can extract value from the PTO when configured around profit-oriented pricing. These findings suggest that agentic aggregators can become useful for managing electric bus V2G operations, but their deployment in public-fleet contexts requires transparent coordination modes, auditable tariff-setting, and explicit value-sharing rules.

In multimodal transportation systems, shared mobility services (SMSs) are promoted for their potential to enhance flexibility and reduce congestion. However, SMS demand is often concentrated in high-density areas, which can limit the effectiveness and accessibility for various commuter groups. This uneven integration challenges transportation system efficiency, especially in terms of emissions and spatial equity. Addressing these issues requires coordination among multiple stakeholders whose objectives frequently conflict. Whereas authorities aim to ensure sustainable and equitable mobility, SMS providers focus on revenue maximization, and travelers seek to minimize personal travel costs. This paper proposes a multi-agent deep reinforcement learning framework that captures these interactions through dynamic pricing and incentivization strategies for SMSs and public transport. The framework integrates two reinforcement learning (RL) agents: (i) a public authority that allocates spatio-temporal public transport incentives to improve equity, emissions, and efficiency, and (ii) an SMS provider that dynamically adjusts fares to optimize revenue. The agents interact with the transportation system and adapt strategies in response to evolving demand, congestion, and network conditions. Numerical experiments conducted over a three-hour morning peak period show that dynamic incentivization effectively reduces congestion peaks, lowers commuters' costs by around 20% and emissions by approximately 10%, while nearly doubling public transport profit and supporting a more equitable distribution of benefits. When combined with dynamic SMS pricing, the two RL agents demonstrate the ability to balance conflicting objectives between private providers and public authorities. The proposed approach provides a decision-support tool for sustainable and equitable multimodal mobility planning.

Adaptive stochastic convex optimization (SCO) methods face a fundamental ``price of adaptivity'' barrier: under the standard set of assumptions, they cannot efficiently adapt to large uncertainty in both the initial distance to optimality and the Lipschitz constant. We circumvent this barrier by requiring a small amount of additional structure common to many learning problems. Specifically, we assume that the objective decomposes into a model and a loss function, enabling us to intervene by modifying the model's output before it passes to the loss function. Under this assumption, we design a method that clips the learned model output in tail events where it deviates too much from the output of a fixed reference model. Our method matches the optimal bounds for known-parameter SCO up to logarithmic factors in the uncertainty in the distance and Lipschitz parameters, thus efficiently adapting to large uncertainty in both.

Electricity markets are inherently complex systems characterised by strong nonlinearities, high-dimensional interactions, and increasing interdependence across regions. While deep neural networks (DNNs) have demonstrated strong predictive capabilities for electricity prices, their lack of interpretability limits their usefulness for understanding the underlying drivers of price formation. This paper addresses this gap by combining DNN models with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to analyse the determinants of electricity prices across 39 European bidding zones. We employ SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to quantify feature contributions and apply and extend SSHAP, an aggregation framework to improve interpretability in high-dimensional settings. The analysis identifies that renewable energy sources, particularly solar, play a disproportionately important role in price formation despite their lower share in total power generation. Gas prices remain a dominant and consistent driver across electricity markets, while interconnections significantly shape price dynamics, highlighting the strong interdependence of European electricity systems. In addition, a synthetic EU-wide electricity market is constructed to explore the counterfactual scenario of a fully integrated market with a single price.

Decision making in lithium production is challenging, whether from an investor's perspective or a strategic production standpoint. Determining which mines to open and when to open them involves not only geological and price uncertainties, but also complexities around the choice of extraction method, from direct lithium extraction to hard rock mining. Prior work explored models of this problem and different methods to optimize mining decisions; these models did not account for uncertainty in pricing, uncertainty in demand, or different mining technologies to extract lithium. Incorporating different pricing models and extraction technology into these models enables more robust strategies for determining not only when and where to open a mine, but also which method of production to pursue. We frame the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and solve using belief state planning methods to get optimal decision making. In our study, we show that POMDP solvers outperform human inspired heuristics by dynamically adapting to shifting lithium price regimes (static, linear, exponential, and stochastic) through belief state planning and explicit uncertainty management. By optimally sequencing exploration, production, and technology choice, the framework achieves higher demand fulfillment and more balanced economic environmental outcomes over the projects lifetime in all different pricing and deposit scenarios.

Data acquisition is a major bottleneck for learning in real-time streams: analysts must decide on the fly which labels to purchase while respecting a rolling budget. However, existing online active learning rarely unifies pricing, information gain, and rolling budget constraints under concept drift. We introduce QueryMarket, a market-inspired framework that queries each incoming data point based on its estimated utility to the model and its price. Within this framework, we propose OVBAL (online variance-based active learning), which integrates data pricing with information-driven selection by estimating each sample's marginal utility via a D-optimality criterion with exponential forgetting and executing cost-aware purchases under rolling budget constraints. OVBAL yields a simple, fully online decision rule that adapts to nonstationary streams and heterogeneous label costs. Experiments on synthetic data and a real-world solar power generation forecasting task show that OVBAL is particularly effective under seller-centric pricing and yields a more favorable long-run error-cost trade-off in the real-world task under both pricing schemes.

Automated Driving System deployments create a foundational ratemaking challenge: sparse experience, shifting operational design domains, and non-stationary risk across software releases. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian credibility framework pooling across cities, software versions, and territories via a learned ODD-similarity kernel, nesting Buhlmann-Straub as a limiting case. Demonstrated on 648 verified-engaged Waymo crashes across four U.S. metros from the NHTSA Standing General Order database against 116 million matched miles, city-aggregate credibility weights are moderate (0.12-0.46), partial pooling decisively outperforms no pooling, and a power analysis shows the learned kernel's advantage becomes detectable at approximately twelve deployed cities.

AI agents can now take irreversible actions in operational systems, but agent-caused losses are still not clearly assigned, priced, or transferred. Providers often disclaim consequential damages, users are left with uncompensated losses, and default human review limits the efficiency gains of automation. We ask when autonomous AI deployment can become economically acceptable despite failure risk. Our answer is to quantify risk at the customer-task-trace episode level and transfer it through insurance. Automation is acceptable when its expected benefit exceeds the premium, control cost, and remaining risk. This requires a defined role with bounded permissions and comparable traces. We introduce trace-economic underwriting, which maps tool-use traces to customer exposure and claimable loss, then uses this representation for pricing, control, and risk transfer. It uses deterministic economic labels rather than an LLM judge. In our trace-to-loss testbed, trace-economic pricing reduces pricing MAE from $17.7K to$569 and removes regressive cross-subsidy. A 300-trace expert audit accepts 295 labels unchanged. On 1,000 real SWE-smith traces, trace-conditioned controls reduce CVaR95 by 72%. Theorem~1 gives a finite-sample scope condition. We release code, labels, and audit sheets.

We develop an LLM-powered virtual population model that simulates demand for pricing decisions, in settings where products are described by rich unstructured information, such as text descriptions and images, and where decision makers need not only mean-demand predictions but also uncertainty estimates for counterfactual prices. Our model represents exposed customers as draws from a finite mixture of customer personas. For each persona, product, and candidate price, an LLM elicits a persona-level purchase probability using both structured persona information and unstructured product information. These probabilities are aggregated through calibrated mixture weights to form a predictive distribution of aggregate demand. The resulting simulator can evaluate counterfactual prices under various pricing objectives, including expected revenue and risk-aware criteria such as conditional value at risk. We test the framework on an online H&M fashion dataset with product descriptions and images. The calibrated LLM-based simulator achieves the best overall predictive performance among the models considered, and supports sample-efficient pricing decisions. Our framework provides a practical way to use LLMs as demand simulators for products with limited historical demand data but rich product information. By producing a full predictive demand distribution rather than only a point forecast, it enables managers to compare candidate prices, quantify demand uncertainty, and choose prices that target either average-case revenue or risk-aware objectives.

High-quality data drives machine learning advances across industries. Recognizing the value of data, data transactions are increasingly common, giving rise to many data marketplaces, e.g., AWS Marketplace, Databricks, and Datarade. However, determining the appropriate prices for data products remains a significant challenge due to the unique properties of data products. Traditional pricing methods in economics can be categorized into the cost approach, the income approach, and the sales comparison approach. The cost approach fails in data pricing due to near-zero marginal cost from data replication, and the income approach fails due to inherently unpredictable data revenue. The sales comparison approach remains viable, yet its application is hindered by the absence of standardized pricing benchmarks for data products across marketplaces. To address this challenge, we introduce \texttt{DaDaDa}, the first dataset for data product pricing, containing metadata for 16,147 data products from 9 major data marketplaces worldwide. \texttt{DaDaDa} enables the training of pricing models, thereby establishing price benchmarks for new data products. In addition, \texttt{DaDaDa} can be utilized for other important tasks in data markets, such as data product classification and retrieval. Experiments and a retrieval prototype demonstrate the effectiveness of \texttt{DaDaDa} for pricing, classification, and retrieval of data products. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/ZJU-DIVER/DaDaDa.

Fairness in insurance pricing remains a long-standing and deeply debated puzzle. On one hand, insurers, driven by profitability considerations, set premiums that differentiate across individual risks to achieve actuarial fairness. On the other hand, insurance serves a critical societal function by pooling risks across a population, motivating cross-subsidization among groups to promote solidarity fairness. The tension between these two competing notions of fairness makes insurance pricing inherently complex, particularly in modern settings where granular data allow for increasingly fine risk differentiation and regulators face growing pressure to protect vulnerable groups. To address this challenge, we propose an $α$-\textbf{F}air \textbf{I}ndividual \textbf{S}olvent \textbf{P}remium ($α$-FISP) framework for insurance pricing that explicitly captures the trade-off between actuarial and solidarity fairness while guaranteeing solvency, a fundamental requirement in insurance operations. We formulate the pricing problem as a constrained optimization task, where actuarially fair premiums are adjusted subject to budget constraints on cross-subsidization within each risk class. This formulation naturally yields a family of solutions parameterized by $α$, tracing a continuum between purely actuarial and purely solidarity-based pricing and enabling decision-makers to select an operating point along this fairness spectrum. We derive theoretical guarantees for the proposed framework. Numerical experiments show that $α$-FISP is computationally tractable and aligns well with the U.S. regulatory regimes featuring heterogeneous state-level fairness requirements.