Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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39 papers in the last four weeks, up 290% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 279

Jun 4, 2026cs.AI

Step-adaptive multimodal fusion network with multi-scale cloud feature learning for ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting

Ultra-short-term solar irradiance prediction is critical for photovoltaic system dispatch and power grid stability. Existing approaches suffer from three key shortcomings: single time-series models cannot capture the spatial dynamics of clouds under complex conditions, standard convolutions inadequately represent multi-scale cloud features, and fixed low-frequency compensation strategies fail to adapt to different prediction steps. To address these issues, this proposes a multi-source data fusion model for ultra-short-term irradiance prediction. The model first employs InceptionNeXt to extract multi-scale, multi-directional spatial features from ground-based cloud images. A step-adaptive low-frequency compensation unit is then introduced to dynamically modulate global low-frequency information based on the prediction step. Eventually, the enhanced image features are combined with meteorological time-series features, and a TempAttnLSTM network captures global temporal dependencies for multi-step prediction. Experiments on the public NREL dataset and practical photovoltaic stations in Shandong illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared with several state-of-the-art approaches.

Jingxin Zhang Xiaoqin Wang

School of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, China

Time Series Forecasting Multi-Scale Feature Fusion Solar Power Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Multimodal Fusion

Jun 4, 2026cs.LG

Field Validation of a Multi-Resolution ConvLSTM Framework for Retaining Wall Deformation Prediction

This study presents a comprehensive field validation of a multi-resolution Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) framework for predicting retaining wall deformation during staged excavation. The framework is trained on Gaussian noise-augmented numerical simulations and integrates ConvLSTM models operating at different temporal resolutions through a stacking ensemble strategy. The proposed framework is validated using field monitoring data from 34 inclinometers across 11 excavation sites in South Korea. Site-wise prediction performance is systematically evaluated using multiple evaluation metrics, with analyses of the influence of temporal deformation irregularity and spatiotemporal prediction characteristics on model performance. The results demonstrate that the framework predicts retaining wall deformation associated with up to 5.0 m of additional excavation with an average mean absolute error of 1.4 mm and a coefficient of determination of 0.93 across the excavation sites. These results indicate that the framework, although trained exclusively on numerically simulated and augmented database, can be effectively applied to diverse field excavation conditions and achieve a reliable level of prediction accuracy in practical retaining wall deformation prediction.

Jihoon Kim, Saeyon Kim, Heejung Youn

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hongik University, Seoul 04066, Republic of Korea

Recurrent Neural Networks Spatiotemporal Forecasting Multiscale Time-Series Modeling Structural Health Monitoring

Jun 3, 2026cs.AI

EpiEvolve: Self-Evolving Agents for Streaming Pandemic Forecasting under Regime Shifts

Epidemic LLM forecasters are usually trained and evaluated as static supervised models, whereas operational pandemic forecasting is a streaming process in which labels arrive after predictions and disease regimes shift over time. We study this mismatch in weekly COVID-19 hospitalization trend forecasting across five variant regimes. We introduce EpiEvolve, a self-evolving agent that wraps an LLM forecaster trained on the warm-start period and keeps its weights fixed during streaming. EpiEvolve adapts by storing forecast outcomes in a hierarchical episodic memory, reflecting on delayed labels, retrieving cases relevant to the current regime, and distilling recurring errors into strategic rules. The resulting context lets the forecaster reuse its own past predictions and outcomes in later weeks while following a chronological protocol that prevents future leakage. On the streaming dataset, EpiEvolve reaches

0.629

average accuracy, compared with

0.561

for the static backbone and

0.325

for the external CDC ensemble, and reduces recovery lag after regime shifts from

5

to

2

weeks. Ablations show that reflection, strategic memory, and regime-aware retrieval each contribute to the gains.

Yiming Lu, Sihang Zeng, Zhengxu Tang +3

Emory University · University of Washington

Epidemic Forecasting Time Series Forecasting LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Retrieval-Augmented Time Series Forecasting+1

Jun 3, 2026cs.LG

CausalPOI: Spatio-Temporal Graph-Based Causal Modeling for Cold-Start POI Check-in Forecasting

As urban environments continue to evolve rapidly, accurately modeling the dynamic behaviour of Points of Interest is essential for supporting data-driven urban planning and commercial decision-making. While recent advancements in spatio-temporal graph learning have improved POI forecasting, most methods rely on proximity-based graphs and correlation-driven modeling, which overlook the functional dependencies between POIs and fail to capture the causal effects of urban interventions. In this paper, we introduce a novel research problem -- cold-start POI check-in forecasting, which aims to predict the future check-in pattern of a newly introduced POI, by modeling its temporal evolution and functional interactions with nearby POIs in a structured urban spatial context. To address these challenges, we propose CausalPOI, a spatio-temporal graph-based causal representation learning framework. CausalPOI leverages Spatio-Temporal Functional Interaction Graph to model semantic and spatial relationships between POIs, and constructs structurally aligned treatment and control graphs to simulate factual and counterfactual scenarios. Extensive experiments on real-world SafeGraph datasets demonstrate that CausalPOI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across the board, validating its effectiveness in spatio-temporal forecasting, semantic interaction modeling, and causal effect estimation, providing a more interpretable and actionable foundation for urban intervention analysis. Source code is available at Github.

Zhaoqi Zhang, Miao Xie, Yi Li +3

Nanyang Technological University Singapore, Singapore · China Agricultural University Beijing, China · Meituan Beijing, China

Causal Representation Learning Causal Inference Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Jun 3, 2026cs.LG

Data-efficient flood depth prediction through domain-aware coreset selection and tabular foundation models

Near-real-time flood depth prediction demands surrogate models that are accurate, fast, and transferable across watersheds. Supervised surrogates can match physics-based simulators in accuracy but need millions of training rows per watershed and cannot extrapolate beyond their original mesh. We propose a domain-aware coreset construction pipeline that conditions a tabular foundation model at inference time. The pipeline stratifies storms by return period and most-affected watershed, then samples hexagons with a target-aware spatial selector. With 0.7% of the per-watershed training pool, the model attains a mean

R^2

of 0.663 across nine Houston-area watersheds, within 98.5% of the supervised reference (

R^2

= 0.673). It transfers to held-out watersheds without task-specific retraining, staying ahead of a coreset-trained supervised baseline. On real storms it exceeds the supervised reference on a far out-of-distribution case and trails it on a mostly in-distribution one. Domain-aware coreset construction lets tabular foundation models deliver data-efficient, watershed-transferable flood predictions without per-watershed training.

Lipai Huang, Adithi Srinath, Manas Singh +2

Urban Resilience.AI Lab, Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA · Resilitix Intelligence LLC, Houston, TX, USA +1

Surrogate Modeling OOD Generalization Coreset Selection Spatiotemporal Forecasting Flood Forecasting

Jun 2, 2026cs.LG

Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Short-Term Flood Prediction

Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities. However, purely data-driven machine learning models often struggle in data-scarce environments and may violate fundamental hydrological principles. Standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can generate physically inconsistent predictions, particularly when extrapolating to extreme weather conditions. To address these limitations, we propose a Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) framework that incorporates hydrological knowledge directly into the loss function of an LSTM model. Specifically, a Trend Alignment constraint penalizes directional inconsistencies between precipitation and discharge trends, improving model robustness without requiring complex hydrodynamic equations. This regularization encourages the model to learn physically plausible hydrograph behavior, even with limited training data, while enhancing reliability during peak flood events. Experimental results show that the proposed physics-informed model outperforms a standard LSTM baseline in data-scarce settings, increasing the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) from 0.20 to 0.23 when trained on only 5% of the available data. Additional stress tests under simulated extreme climate scenarios demonstrate that the baseline model exhibits unstable behavior, whereas the physics-informed model maintains directional consistency and physical plausibility. Although accurately predicting extreme peak magnitudes remains challenging with limited data, the proposed approach substantially reduces unphysical fluctuations common in purely data-driven models. These findings demonstrate that simple physical constraints can significantly improve the reliability of deep learning models for real-time flood forecasting, offering a practical solution for ungauged basins and evolving climate conditions.

Tewodros Syum Gebre, Jagrati Talreja, Leila Hashemi-Beni

North Carolina A&T State University · Greensboro, NC 27407, USA

Long Short-Term Memory Networks Physics-Informed ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting Flood Forecasting

Jun 2, 2026cs.HC

DiffUNet^2: Bidirectional Conditional Diffusion for Probabilistic Scientific Spatiotemporal Modeling

Studying the spatiotemporal evolution of scientific phenomena often relies on costly simulations and experiments. Machine learning-based surrogate models reduce this cost, but most are limited to deterministic forward prediction. Scientific temporal analysis often requires both forward prediction and backward inference, while temporal evolution is not always uniquely determined, especially for the inverse problem. We introduce DiffUNet^2, a bidirectional conditional diffusion model for probabilistic scientific temporal prediction. It supports both forward and backward prediction within a shared model. We evaluate DiffUNet^2 on four scientific temporal datasets spanning fluid dynamics, chemical reaction dynamics, and material deformation, against deterministic and probabilistic baselines. Results show that DiffUNet^2 achieves strong predictive performance in both temporal directions and high probabilistic ensemble quality compared with existing baselines. To support practical scientific exploration beyond prediction, we further extend DiffUNet^2's generation ability with target-guided state editing, allowing states of interest to be specified and explored in both temporal directions.

Mengdi Chu, Jiaxin Yang, Angus G. Forbes +4

Mengdi Chu, Jiaxin Yang, and Han-Wei Shen are with the Ohio State University. · Angus G. Forbes is with NVIDIA. · Nathan Debardeleben, Earl Lawrence, Ayan Biswas are with Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Diffusion Model Guidance Probabilistic Forecasting Scientific ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting Conditional Diffusion Models

Jun 2, 2026cs.LG

PatchSTG: Scalable Spatiotemporal Graph Transformers for Traffic Forecasting on Irregular Sensor Networks

Traffic forecasting is a fundamental component of intelligent transportation systems, yet remains challenging in real-world settings due to irregular sensor distributions and the high computational cost of modeling large-scale spatiotemporal dependencies. In practical traffic networks, sensors are unevenly distributed across regions, leading to non-uniform spatial structures that limit the effectiveness and scalability of existing graph-based and attention-based models. To address these challenges, we propose PatchSTG, a patch-based spatiotemporal graph Transformer designed for efficient forecasting on irregular sensor networks. The key idea is to introduce a hierarchical spatial representation that partitions sensors into balanced, locality-preserving patches based on geographic information. On top of this structure, a dual attention encoder alternates between intra-patch attention for capturing local interactions and inter-patch attention for modeling global dependencies, reducing computational complexity from quadratic to near-linear scaling. We evaluate PatchSTG on real-world traffic data from Rhode Island and additional large-scale datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves stable and competitive forecasting performance across multiple horizons, while significantly improving computational efficiency. Ablation studies further validate the effectiveness of spatial partitioning and dual attention in capturing both local and long-range traffic dynamics. These results suggest that patch-based spatiotemporal modeling provides a scalable and effective framework for traffic forecasting under irregular spatial settings.

Jichao Li, Xuanming Shi

Portsmouth Abbey School · CodingFuture (Shanghai) Education Technology Co., Ltd.

Intelligent Transportation Systems Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Jun 1, 2026eess.IV

Learning to Refine: Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement Framework for Precipitation Nowcasting

Accurate precipitation nowcasting is vital for disaster mitigation, but deep learning methods face a key trade-off: regression models produce over-smoothed, spectrally decaying predictions that blur convective details and violate turbulence power laws; diffusion models generate realistic yet unanchored hallucinations lacking physical grounding. We propose Spectral-Decoupled Iterative Refinement (SDIR), a deterministic framework that reformulates nowcasting as progressive frequency-decoupled refinement. SDIR first extracts a stable low-frequency synoptic skeleton, then iteratively refines high-frequency textures under physical constraints, eliminating both blurring and hallucinations. It features a dual-path design: the Synoptic Frequency-Guided Former (SFG-Former) with Scale-Adaptive Transformers for global structure, and the Fourier Residual Refiner (FR-Refiner) with Scale-Conditioned Fourier Neural Operators for fine residuals. A Physically Consistent Power Spectral Density (PCPSD) loss with dynamic masking enforces a turbulence-consistent spectral distribution. Experiments on three benchmarks show SDIR significantly outperforms SOTA methods in spatial accuracy while achieving spectral fidelity competitive with diffusion-based methods, enabling reliable high-resolution operational nowcasting. Code link: https://github.com/RuntimeWarning/SDIR.

Yunlong Zhou, Chen Zhao, Danyang Peng +2

School of Intelligence Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Suzhou, 215163, China. · State Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China.

Precipitation Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Precipitation Nowcasting

May 31, 2026cs.LG

AdaKernel: Learning Adaptive Kernel Parameters for Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks

Modeling spatial dependencies is central to spatiotemporal data analysis using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Traditional methods rely on distance-based kernels with predefined parameters, which restricts model capacity. Although generic adaptive mechanisms (e.g., Graph Attention Networks) offer flexibility, they often fail to capture the underlying geometric structure, performing worse than distance-based models in data-sparse scenarios. Addressing this, we revisit the kernel parameterization problem and theoretically prove that misspecified kernel parameters introduce unavoidable approximation errors in GNNs. To overcome this, we propose AdaKernel, a simple yet effective approach that learns adaptive kernel parameters within the neural network. Unlike methods that learn graph structures from scratch, AdaKernel adopts a structure-preserving strategy that optimizes the scale of physical interactions rather than discarding them. Extensive experiments on Kriging, Imputation, and Forecasting demonstrate that AdaKernel consistently improves various GNN architectures and outperforms model-agnostic adaptive baselines, validating that accurately learned kernel parameters are superior to both fixed priors and fully latent graph structures.

Zhongyue Zhang, Guangyin Jin, Yuxuan Liang +2

Sichuan University · PLA Academy of Military Science · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

Kernel Methods Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 30, 2026stat.AP

Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting of Under-Five Malaria Admissions in Ghana: A Gaussian Process Regression with Holt-Winters Smoothing

Accurate malaria forecasting remains a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, where strong seasonality, reporting uncertainty, and non-stationary transmission dynamics reduce the reliability of conventional models. In Ghana, district-level malaria surveillance requires forecasting frameworks that are probabilistically rigorous and robust under limited data. This study proposes a hybrid framework integrating Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Holt-Winters exponential smoothing for modelling monthly under-five malaria admissions. GPR captures non-linear behaviour and predictive uncertainty, while Holt-Winters stabilises long-horizon forecasts and preserves seasonal structure. Using ten years of district-level data (2014-2023), performance was evaluated via rolling-origin expanding-window validation. The hybrid model achieved

R^2 = 0.9906

versus

0.8213

for Holt-Winters alone, with

94.2\%

of residuals within

\pm 2σ

bounds. Forecasts for 2024-2028 project average monthly admissions from approximately 8{,}000 to 12{,}200 cases. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed pronounced ecological heterogeneity: northern high-burden districts exhibited stable relative patterns despite large absolute fluctuations. The framework provides a scalable probabilistic approach for malaria early warning and operational planning in endemic settings, supporting Ghana's national malaria control strategy.

T. Ansah-Narh, Y. Asare Afrane, J. Bremang Tandoh

Epidemic Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Gaussian Process Regression

May 30, 2026cs.LG

Spatiotemporal Multi-Task Graph Transformer for Trip-Level Transit Prediction

Passenger count data from public transit systems reveals urban mobility patterns and is essential for planning, operation, and optimisation. However, non-linear spatiotemporal interdependencies across stops and lines make modelling and prediction challenging. Existing approaches often rely on fixed temporal, spatial, or stop-level formulations, limiting their ability to capture within-trip evolution and network context. This study proposes SMT-GraphFormer, a spatiotemporal multi-task graph transformer that frames trip-level transit prediction as sequence-to-sequence modelling. Given a line's stop sequence and trip-level context, the model predicts successive boarding and alighting counts, with delay and dwell time treated as encoder-side surrogate tasks. Key components include graph embeddings for multi-relational stop similarity, a context encoder for weather and temporal information, and a multi-gate mixture-of-experts module that produces task-specific decoder representations for boarding and alighting predictions. Evaluation on public bus transit data from Trondheim, Norway, shows that SMT-GraphFormer outperforms stop-level tabular benchmarks, with ablation studies examining each component's contribution. The sequential formulation yields substantial gains on alighting prediction (

+

0.24 in

R^2

) and consistent improvements on boarding, delay, and dwell, confirming the value of explicit trip-level sequential bias and inter-target dependencies. These findings demonstrate the potential of transformer-based sequence modelling for capturing complex spatiotemporal dynamics in public transit and underscore the value of architectures tailored to transit data rather than off-the-shelf tabular models. The proposed framework provides a horizon-agnostic basis for scenario analysis in digital twin environments, supporting informed decision-making by planners and transit operators.

Oluwaleke Yusuf, Adil Rasheed, Frank Lindseth

Department of Engineering Cybernetics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim NO-7491, Norway · Department of Computer Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim NO-7491, Norway

Intelligent Transportation Systems Multi-Task Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 30, 2026cs.AI

EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

Energy consumption prediction is essential for efficient grid management, demand-side optimization, and sustainable energy planning. Although advanced machine learning methods have been employed for better prediction performance, existing works have two key limitations: (1) they usually formulate this task as a purely time-series prediction problem without explicitly modeling the spatial dependencies among different regions, and (2) they fail to provide reliable predictions with uncertainty estimates under abnormal situations such as extreme weather events. To advance existing research, we propose EnergyMamba, an uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal learning framework for accurate and reliable energy consumption prediction, which comprises two key components: (i) a novel Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model (GE-Mamba) that injects spatial context learned from the grid topology into the temporal dynamics, enabling coupled spatiotemporal modeling, and (ii) an Adaptive Sequential Conformalized Quantile Regression (AS-CQR) module, which includes locally adaptive normalization and an online feedback mechanism to dynamically calibrate prediction intervals under potential distribution shifts. We evaluate EnergyMamba on four large-scale real-world datasets from Florida, New York, and California. Results show EnergyMamba achieves around 5% improvement in prediction accuracy and 6% improvement in uncertainty quantification over 15 state-of-the-art baselines.

Dahai Yu, Rongchao Xu, Lin Jiang +1

Florida State University · Tallahassee, Florida, USA

Selective SSMs Time Series Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting Conformal Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting Electricity Load Forecasting+1

May 29, 2026cs.LG

CHAM-net: A Contrastive Hierarchical Adaptive Meta-network for Robust Global Methane Flux Prediction

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that significantly contributes to global warming. However, accurately estimating global methane emissions and consumption remains challenging due to the complex interactions among environmental drivers that may vary across spatial and temporal scales. Prior data-driven methods often overlook the inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity of ecosystems, failing to explicitly capture site-specific characteristics and cross-year evolutionary dynamics. To address these issues, we propose the Contrastive Hierarchical Adaptive Meta-network (CHAM-net), a novel framework that explicitly learns from historical context to capture site-specific dynamics. CHAM-net employs a hierarchical encoder-decoder architecture, in which the encoder captures site-specific characteristics from historical data and then dynamically conditions the decoder to generate the final prediction. Experimental results demonstrate that CHAM-net consistently outperforms all baseline methods on both simulation and observational datasets for methane emission and consumption, achieving nRMSE values as low as 0.43 and 0.88 with corresponding R2 scores up to 0.97 and 0.68 for emission prediction.

Rongchao Dong, Yiming Sun, Shuo Chen +4

University of Pittsburgh · Purdue University · University of Colorado Boulder +3

Meta-Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 28, 2026cs.LG

Spatio-temporal stochastic graph-based learning for infectious disease forecasting

Spatio-temporal graph-based models have typically been used to forecast new cases of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and chickenpox outbreaks. However, the use of stochastic modelling into their learning process has been surprisingly under-investigated and rarely considered entire data sets of large countries. As a result, it is unknown whether these models would provide accurate forecasts in real-world disease spread scenarios. In this work, we propose a spatio-temporal stochastic graph-based architecture that integrates a stochastic formulation and uncertainty approximation process to forecast new infectious disease cases. We find that our approach can adapt to encode large and small population geographical networks within a single model architecture. Using two real-world data sets, COVID-19 in the US and chickenpox in Hungary, we report an enhanced effect of the proposed architecture across predictions of the 2022 first wave for COVID-19 in the US and comparative results of chickenpox waves during 2012-2014 in Hungary. By benchmarking with four spatio-temporal graph-based models, quantitative results show competitive overall weekly performance of the proposed approach on forecasting new cases for all 3,218 US counties and all 20 Hungary counties. The proposed approach can represent overall epidemic progression relative to baselines, though with a one-step delay; while exhibiting a reduced sensitivity to high-frequency and low-amplitude variability.

Luz Stefani Sotomayor Valenzuela, Susanna Cramb, Darren Wraith

School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia · QUT Centre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia

Epidemic Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 28, 2026cs.LG

Beyond MSE: Improving Precipitation Nowcasting with Multi-Quantile Regression

Deep-learning precipitation nowcasting models are often optimized using pointwise losses such as mean squared error or mean absolute error, which can lead to overly smooth forecasts and poor representation of heavy rainfall. This study investigates whether the predictive performance of an established deterministic nowcasting architecture can be improved by reformulating training as a multi-quantile regression problem. Using SmaAt-UNet as a core model, we compare MSE, MAE, and multi-quantile pinball-loss training on radar precipitation nowcasting over the Netherlands. The results show that multi-quantile training improves the central deterministic forecast, decreasing test-set MSE by 8.6% compared to a model trained using MSE, while also producing upper-quantile outputs that are useful for risk-sensitive prediction of heavy precipitation. These findings suggest that quantile regression provides a simple alternative to standard pointwise losses without requiring a new architecture or generative sampling procedure. The implementation of our models and training setup is available on GitHub.

Gijs van Nieuwkoop, Siamak Mehrkanoon

Department of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Precipitation Forecasting Quantile Regression Probabilistic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Precipitation Nowcasting

May 28, 2026cs.LG

From Short Histories to Long Futures: Horizon-Aware Graph Neural Networks for Long Horizon Forecasting

Accurate long-range prediction of geophysical systems is difficult due to strongly nonlinear dynamics, the high computational cost of full-physics simulations, and the error accumulation that arise when one-step autoregressive surrogates are rolled out over decades. Deep neural network can serve as efficient emulators, but most are trained only for next-step prediction and often drift or become unstable as the forecast horizon grows. We propose a multi-horizon graph neural network emulator that learns state-to-state transitions from a single current time to multiple future lead times within one unified model. The physical domain is represented as a graph, where nodes correspond to spatial locations with time-varying geophysical attributes and edges encode local spatial interactions. Given the current graph state, the model predicts the future evolution of key fields, ice thickness and ice velocities at all nodes, using a shared graph backbone with separate output branches for each target variable. To improve stability, the network predicts state increments relative to the current state, which are then added back to reconstruct future states. Training jointly optimizes all lead times with a unified regression objective, and inference uses a coarse-to-fine rollout that advances with larger jumps and selectively refines with shorter jumps to reduce drift and avoid redundant computation. Experiments on multi-decadal Pine Island Glacier simulations show that our approach achieves higher long-range accuracy and improved stability than both (i) an initial-state baseline that predicts each future time directly from the starting state and (ii) a standard single-step autoregressive rollout, producing a more reliable emulator for downstream climate and sea-level studies.

Zesheng Liu, Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Lehigh University, Bethlehem PA 18015, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lehigh University, Bethlehem2026 PA 18015, USA

Neural Surrogate Modeling Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

May 27, 2026cs.CV

A Road-Conditioned Traffic Movie Prediction Network with Spatiotemporal and Structure-Consistent Learning

City-wide traffic forecasting is important for congestion management, route guidance, and intelligent transportation systems, but accurate prediction remains challenging when future traffic must be generated as spatial maps over an entire urban network. Existing traffic movie prediction methods have improved frame-level accuracy, yet many still treat forecasting mainly as image reconstruction. This can produce traffic maps that are numerically close to the ground truth but weakly constrained by road layout, connectivity, travel direction, and congestion propagation, especially in cross-city settings where both traffic behavior and road structure change. To address this limitation, this study proposes RCSNet, a road-conditioned spatiotemporal network that reformulates traffic movie prediction as topology-guided future-state generation. RCSNet extracts road-aware representations from static road maps, models multi-horizon traffic dynamics from historical observations, aligns directional traffic features with local road structure, and progressively generates future traffic maps for improved temporal consistency. A structure-consistent learning objective further encourages predictions to remain accurate, road-aligned, and spatially stable. Experiments across multiple cities show that RCSNet improves both forecasting accuracy and structural consistency. In same-city forecasting on Berlin, Antwerp, and Moscow, RCSNet reduces average MAE, MSE, and RMSE by 11.5%, 10.0%, and 5.1%, respectively, compared with the closest baseline. In cross-city testing on unseen Chicago and Bangkok, it reduces RMSE by 10.6% and 10.5% without target-city fine-tuning. Additional horizon-wise, road-structure, explainability, statistical, and efficiency analyses show that RCSNet produces more accurate, transferable, road-aligned, and computationally efficient traffic forecasts.

Joshua Kofi Asamoah, Blessing Agyei Kyem, Armstrong Aboah

North Dakota State University, 1410 14th Avenue Offerdahl North Building, CIE 201, Fargo, 58102, North Dakota, United States

Intelligent Transportation Systems Traffic Flow Estimation Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting

May 26, 2026cs.LG

Transfer Learning using 66 Diseases for Disease Forecasting Applications

Disease forecasting models typically rely on a single data stream, making models brittle when histories are short or noisy. Recent top-performing models have shown that synthesizing multiple reporting systems for the same disease improves performance. Other recent work takes this idea a step further, using transfer learning to train a forecasting model for one disease using data from a different disease. We expand upon each of these approaches greatly, training machine learning models on data that span 66 infectious diseases and several data streams. We investigate the value of incorporating different data streams for forecasting 20 different disease data streams. We find that incorporating other data streams improves forecasting in the vast majority (84.9%) of time series and model structures considered. However, our work highlights that the quality of the added data matters, where adding data extremely different from the target data stream can sometimes degrade forecast performance. A major contribution of this work is in compiling a publicly-available database of data for use by the infectious disease forecasting community.

Lauren J Beesley, Alexander C Murph, Dave Osthus +1

Statistics, Los Alamos National Laboratory · Computational Intelligence & Modeling, Los Alamos National Laboratory

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Epidemic Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Cross-Domain Transfer Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 26, 2026cs.LG

SL-BiLEM: Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Modeling for Forecasting and Policy Evaluation

Epidemic forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: human behavior dynamically responds to disease spread, creating feedback loops that induce distribution shifts at policy intervention points. This renders data-driven models unreliable under distribution shift. We propose \textbf{SL-BiLEM} (Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Model), leveraging physical constraints as regularization for robust extrapolation. The framework decomposes effective transmission as

β_{\text{eff}}(t,g) = β_0(g) \times m_{\text{policy}}(t) \times m_{\text{media}}(t) \times m_{\text{comp}}(t,g)

, where monotonicity, smoothness, and bounded-jump constraints on the learned compliance function maintain predictive validity under novel policy regimes. Beyond forecasting, SL-BiLEM enables counterfactual analysis for intervention decision support. We validate forecasting on three real-world datasets (cruise ship, school influenza, and school-district COVID-19 surveillance) and evaluate counterfactual recovery on synthetic benchmarks with known ground truth. SL-BiLEM demonstrates: (1) 76% improvement over neural-mechanistic baselines, with only 53% OOD degradation versus 1142% for neural baselines under policy-induced shift; (2) 100% bootstrap CI coverage across 27 synthetic counterfactual experiments; and (3) Treatment Effect Accuracy exceeding 0.85. These results establish SL-BiLEM as an interpretable tool for public health decision-makers seeking accurate prediction and principled intervention planning.

Haochun Wang, Sendong Zhao, Jingbo Wang +3

Faculty of Computing, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, China

Epidemic Forecasting Distribution Shift Counterfactual Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 26, 2026cs.LG

Recursive Flow Matching

Generative models have emerged as a powerful paradigm for solving physics systems and modeling complex spatiotemporal dynamics. However, achieving high physical accuracy without incurring high computational cost remains a fundamental challenge, as existing approaches face a critical speed-fidelity trade-off. In this work, we introduce Recursive Flow Matching (RecFM), a generative framework for forecasting complex spatiotemporal dynamics. RecFM enforces self-consistency to align trajectories across discretization scales, reducing discretization errors and improving performance across metrics for physics-based tasks. To our knowledge, this is the first method to achieve high-fidelity one- and few-step (2-4 step) dynamic generation for scientific systems with performance comparable to state-of-the-art multi-step solvers. Across challenging scientific benchmarks, RecFM achieves up to a 20

\times

speedup over leading diffusion-based emulators while improving predictive accuracy. Furthermore, RecFM reduces mean squared error by over 15% compared to vanilla flow matching, offering a scalable and efficient solution for real-time scientific emulation.

Jiahe Huang, Sihan Xu, Sharvaree Vadgama +1

University of California, San Diego · University of Michigan

Neural Surrogate Modeling Flow Matching One-Step Generative Modeling Flow-Based Generative Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting Physics-Based Simulation

May 25, 2026cs.CV

Accelerated Spatio-Temporal Gaussian Rendering via Kinematic and Semantic Priors

Reconstructing dynamic 3D scenes from multi-view videos is a foundational task for robotics, AR/VR, and digital twins. While 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) provides state-of-the art scene representation, its dynamic adaptations (4DGS) face significant challenges. Early MLP-based deformation models excel at interpolating within training frames but fail at temporal extrapolation --- important feature for forecasting in predictive systems. To address this, physically grounded approaches have been proposed to enable robust future forecasting, while, concurrently, semantic 4DGS methods have been developed for scene analysis and language-driven prompting. However, there is currently no framework that unites both physical consistency and semantic understanding. In this paper, we propose the first, to the best of our knowledge, unified 4DGS approach that is both physically grounded and semantically aware. Furthermore, to optimize computational efficiency, we introduce a novel rigid-body constraint mechanism. Instead of predicting the physical dynamics for every Gaussian particle, our model predicts the motion of a single anchor Gaussian per semantic object, updating the remaining Gaussians via relative transformations. This architectural design significantly accelerates novel view synthesis compared to an unconstrained baseline, while enabling object-accurate extrapolation and intuitive semantic interaction. Our project page: https://be2rlab.github.io/r5dgs/.

Denis Gridusov, Maxim Popov, Sergey Kolyubin

ITMO University, St. Petersburg, Russia

3D Gaussian Splatting 4D Reconstruction Dynamic Scene Reconstruction Novel View Synthesis Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 25, 2026cs.RO

HumanFlow -- Diffusion-Driven MAV Navigation Among Humans via Tightly-Coupled Motion Tracking, Forecasting, and Control

Robust and accurate perception of humans in their 3D scene context is essential for integrating robots into everyday environments. Existing approaches, however, often fail to predict plausible and accurate human motion estimates that are consistent with the surrounding scene, especially in the presence of heavy occlusions or partial visibility. This can limit both safety and efficiency for robotic operations. We introduce HumanFlow, a latent diffusion model that unifies human motion tracking and forecasting, conditioned on the 3D scene context. We show that our human motion model produces smooth and accurate predictions under challenging conditions, including heavy occlusions, and outperforms state-of-the-art methods in tracking accuracy while being significantly more efficient. Furthermore, we show how HumanFlow's latent space can be tightly coupled with control by conditioning a flow-matching-based, approximate MPC policy on these representations. We validate our policy in simulation with real human trajectories for MAV social navigation, demonstrating superior navigation performance and remaining collision-free, even under partial observability of the human.

Simon Schaefer, Joshua Näf, Stefan Leutenegger

Technical University of Munich · MCML · MIRMI +1

Social Navigation Humanoid Motion Tracking Human Motion Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting Robot Motion Planning Diffusion Models

May 25, 2026cs.AI

PHGNet: Prototype-Guided Hypergraph Construction for Heterogeneous Spatiotemporal Forecasting

As a core task in intelligent transportation systems, traffic forecasting plays a critical role in urban traffic management. Accurate traffic forecasting relies on modeling complex spatiotemporal dependencies, which is inherently challenging due to spatial heterogeneity in traffic systems.Despite significant progress, most existing methods are still limited to pairwise spatial dependency modeling, making it difficult to capture dynamic high-order interactions among nodes with similar traffic patterns. To address this issue, we propose PHGNet, a novel spatiotemporal forecasting framework based on prototype-guided hypergraph construction. At the core of PHGNet, a prototype learning mechanism is designed to adaptively assign pattern-similar nodes to hyperedges, thereby capturing high-order interactions with time-varying structures. To improve the reliability of dynamic hypergraph construction, we further develop a global-local node representation module to extract time-consistent features. For forecasting, iterative residual refinement and Temporal Query Attention are introduced to improve forecasting accuracy while supporting efficient parallel decoding. Extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that PHGNet achieves superior predictive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods.

Ruiwen Gu, Yahao Liu, Zhenyu Liu +2

Shenzhen Ubiquitous Data Enabling Key Lab Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China

Graph Neural Networks Intelligent Transportation Systems Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Hypergraph Learning

May 25, 2026cs.AI

ADMFormer: An Adaptive-Decomposition Transformer with Time-Varying Masked Spatial Attention for Traffic Forecasting

Accurate traffic forecasting is essential for intelligent transportation systems, supporting a wide range of real-world applications. However, it remains challenging due to two key factors:(1) Traffic series contain heterogeneous temporal patterns, where stable periodic regularities coexist with event-driven fluctuations. Existing methods often treat them within a unified representation, limiting their ability to capture fine-grained temporal dynamics.(2)Spatial dependencies among nodes are inherently dynamic and sparse, while dense all-pairs attention often introduces redundant interactions and amplifies noise. To address these issues, we propose ADMFormer, an Adaptive-Decomposition Transformer with Time-Varying Masked Spatial Attention. Specifically, ADMFormer first employs a time-node adaptive gating mechanism to decouple traffic signals into dominant regularities and residual fluctuations that vary across time and nodes. A dual-branch temporal module is then designed to separately capture global periodic dependencies and high-frequency irregular variations from these two decomposed components. Furthermore, ADMFormer introduces a time-varying masked spatial attention that sparsifies spatial interactions based on real-time traffic states, thereby effectively preserving dynamic and informative dependencies. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate that ADMFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Ruiwen Gu, Qitai Tan, Yahao Liu +1

Shenzhen Ubiquitous Data Enabling Key Lab Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China

Attention Mechanisms Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting Time Series Transformers

May 25, 2026cs.LG

Autoregression-Free Neural Operators for Time-Dependent PDEs

Neural operators learn mappings from function-dependent inputs to solutions, providing an effective framework for solving partial differential equations (PDEs). For time-dependent PDEs, existing methods typically perform long-horizon prediction through autoregressive rollout directly in high-dimensional physical field spaces, where each predicted state is recursively fed back as the input for the next step. Although effective for short-term prediction, this autoregressive rollout and the lack of continuous-time modeling lead to progressive error accumulation over long-horizon rollouts. In this work, we propose Autoregression-Free Neural Operators (AFNO), which map the time evolution of PDEs into a latent space and model continuous-time vector fields within it. AFNO uses flow matching to learn the latent vector field, thereby enabling continuous evolution over extended horizons, avoiding autoregressive rollout and capturing dynamics under varying parameter configurations through explicit conditioning on physical parameters. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on six PDEs demonstrate that AFNO improves long-horizon prediction stability and consistently reduces rollout errors compared with the baselines.

Jiaquan Zhang, Caiyan Qin, Haoyu Bian +7

School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan 611731, China · School of Robotics and Advanced Manufacture, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055, China · School of Mathematical Sciences, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China +3

Latent Dynamics Modeling PDE Operator Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 23, 2026cs.LG

High-fidelity Modeling of Full-scale Pressurized Water Reactor Flow Fields for Machine Learning Applications

This work presents a high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and data-driven modeling framework for assembly-level flow characterization in a four-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR). A full lower-plenum and core-inlet domain was constructed using publicly available geometry and operating conditions, enabling transient simulations with pump-induced swirl boundary conditions. The results show that cold-leg swirl and lower-plenum transport generate strongly heterogeneous assembly-wise inlet flow distributions, particularly near the lower core region, while axial resistance and mixing progressively homogenize the flow at higher elevations. These physics-informed datasets were subsequently used to evaluate machine learning (ML) applications for partial field reconstruction and short-term autoregressive prediction. A 3D convolutional-based inpainting model successfully recon-structed missing assembly-level mass flow rates from partial observations, with errors concentrated in the highly turbulent base (bottom) layer and diminishing significantly in upper layers. Comparative analysis across multiple ML models demon-strates that spatially aware architectures, particularly ConvLSTM, significantly outperform sequence-based (LSTM) and operator-learning (DeepONet) approaches by effectively capturing coupled spatio-temporal dynamics. The study also high-lights key challenges, including the sensitivity of inlet flow predictions to turbulence and mesh resolution, as well as the absence of full-scale experimental validation data. Despite these limitations, the results remain consistent with expected physical behavior. Overall, this work establishes high-fidelity CFD as a critical foundation for developing data-driven surrogates, sparse sensing strategies, and future multiphysics coupling frameworks.

Logan A. Burnett, Hyungjun Kim, Hsien-Cheng Chou +5

Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States · Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon, 34057, South Korea · Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, United States +2

Neural Surrogate Modeling Spatiotemporal Forecasting Computational Fluid Dynamics

May 21, 2026physics.space-ph

Aurora Hunter: A Two-Stage Framework for Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting

Aurora visibility at a given location requires two physically distinct conditions to hold at once: aurora occurring overhead, governed by solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, and observing conditions that permit detection, governed by cloud cover and moonlight. Approaches that conflate the two weaken the space-weather signal and limit cross-site generalizability. We develop Aurora Hunter, a two-stage cascade that separates occurrence prediction from observing-condition assessment. Stage 1 uses 43 physics-driven features to predict P(aurora identifiable in all-sky images) via gradient-boosted trees trained on joint Tromso+Kiruna data (about 16,600 hours, 2015-2023). Stage 2 models P(unobscured image class | identifiable) with logistic regression on 15 observing-condition features, trained on hours with identifiable aurora. The cascade P(visible) = P(identifiable) x P(unobscured | identifiable) achieves retrospective ROC-AUC of 0.958 (Tromso test, 2019-2020) and 0.933 (independent Kiruna, 2024), improving on the occurrence stage used alone by +0.095 and +0.097. Transfer to Skibotn, the one station withheld entirely (2022-2025), is limited. SHAP analysis identifies magnetic local time, the Kp x nightside interaction and the three-hour mean Kp as the dominant features (44% of attribution), consistent with auroral oval physics. Hemisphere-wide occurrence maps combine the Stage 1 amplitude, on a clear-sky basis, with the Feldstein oval parameterization. By providing location-specific visibility probabilities with measured reliability rather than coarse geomagnetic indices, the framework links space weather research to practical observation planning. An operational proof of concept is available at https://aurora-hunter.onrender.com

Zongyuan Ge, Chenwaner Zhang, Haoyang Li +4

College of Physics and Optoelectronic Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China · School of Mathematics and Computer Science, Yunnan Minzu University, Kunming 650504, People’s Republic of China · Engineering Research Center of Advanced Marine Physical Instruments and Equipment, Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266100, China +1

Probabilistic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 21, 2026cs.CV

Mode-as-Sequence: Translating Multimodal Motion Prediction into Unified Sequential Mode Modeling

Multimodal motion forecasting is inherently under-supervised: each training scene provides only one realized future, yet multiple plausible futures exist. This sparse supervision often leads to mode collapse (redundant hypotheses and insufficient mode coverage) and unreliable confidence ranking when predicting a small set of trajectories. We propose Mode-as-Sequence, a unified decoding framework that translates an unordered mode set into an ordered mode sequence and explicitly models mode-to-mode dependency. Under this framework, we develop two complementary instantiations. ModeSeq performs recurrent mode decoding, where each mode is generated conditioned on the previously generated modes, encouraging diverse, non-redundant hypotheses with calibrated confidence ordering. To remove the mode-by-mode autoregressive bottleneck, we further propose Parallel ModeSeq, which preserves the same causal dependency using masked mode-to-mode self-attention while decoding all modes in a single forward pass, enabling efficient large-

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inference and scalable joint-scene prediction. To learn representative modes and calibrated confidence under sparse labels, we introduce Early-Match-Take-All (EMTA) and its joint-scene extension MA-EMTA, together with a lightweight ranking regularizer that reduces confidence inversions. Extensive experiments on large-scale benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in both ranking-oriented metrics and best-of-K accuracy across datasets, horizons, and object types. In the Waymo Open Dataset challenges, ModeSeq achieves 1st place in the 2024 LiDAR-free motion prediction track, and Parallel ModeSeq achieves 1st place in the 2025 Interaction Prediction Challenge, validating the effectiveness of Mode-as-Sequence for both accuracy and efficiency.

Zikang Zhou, Haibo Hu, Xinhong Chen +5

City University of Hong Kong · City University of Hong Kong (Dongguan) · Hon Hai Research Institute +1

Probability Calibration Autonomous Driving Spatiotemporal Forecasting Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Sequence Modeling Mode Collapse

May 20, 2026physics.geo-ph

Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity Forecasting: Per-Cell Dispersion Estimation and Tail Risk Assessment

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from Central Asia (2010-2024), where a likelihood-ratio test with boundary correction strongly rejects the Poisson hypothesis (p < 10^{-179}). The main contribution of this work is the EarthquakeNet architecture, which provides an endogenous per-cell estimate of the overdispersion parameter alpha via a neural network (spatial embeddings + MLP), without explicit spatial covariance specification. In contrast to existing negative binomial regression approaches in seismological forecasting, which typically assume a single global alpha, the proposed per-cell formulation allows the model to identify spatial heterogeneity in seismic clustering and to construct probabilistic risk-aware alerts via quantiles of the predicted distribution. A walk-forward evaluation (2018-2023) over four systems shows an 8.6 percent reduction in mean pinball deviation (MPD) relative to a negative binomial GLM baseline. The strongest improvements are observed in the tail regime (Y >= 5), where the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of the proposed model is 12.5 percent lower than that of the baseline, indicating improved calibration in extreme-event forecasting.

Alim Igilik

[physics.geo-ph]

Probabilistic Forecasting Seismology Spatiotemporal Forecasting