Stochastic Differential Equations

Masked diffusion language models generate text by iteratively unmasking many tokens in parallel, but this speed comes with a correction problem: tokens generated in the same step are predicted from marginal distributions, and early local dependency errors can later contaminate the context. PRISM addresses this by learning token-level quality scores and remasking unreliable tokens, but its inference rule is coupled: the same forward pass both detects low-quality tokens and computes logits for their replacements, so the erroneous tokens still condition regeneration. We propose NAVIRA, an inference-time decoding policy that separates these two operations and samples remasking positions stochastically. A first forward pass scores tokens; selected tokens are masked; a second forward pass regenerates from the cleaned context. Temperature-controlled remasking reduces repeated correction of the same positions and balances fluency against diversity. In controlled experiments with a 170M masked diffusion language model, decoupling improves fluency, while scheduled stochastic remasking preserves entropy and achieves stronger LLM-judge scores under larger forward-pass budgets. These results show that remasking policy, not only the learned quality signal, is central to reliable masked-diffusion text generation.

Multi-step time series forecasting (MSF) is commonly evaluated using point-wise error metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), implicitly treating the conditional mean as a sufficient target. We show that this can be misleading under conditional uncertainty, where the conditional expectation becomes unrepresentative of typical realized values at longer horizons. We formalize this effect through a conditional uncertainty gap and prove that whenever this gap is nonzero, no deterministic predictor can simultaneously minimize MSE and match the marginal distribution of realized futures. This establishes a fundamental, model-agnostic trade-off between point accuracy and marginal realism in MSF evaluation. Using controlled stochastic dynamical systems and nine real-world forecasting benchmarks, we empirically characterize the resulting accuracy--realism frontier and \textbf{quantify the practical cost of MSE-only model selection}. As conditional uncertainty increases with forecast horizon, the attainable set expands into a pronounced Pareto front, separating MSE-optimal but under-dispersed predictors from methods that trade accuracy for realistic marginal variability. \textbf{Across benchmarks, we find that small relaxations in MSE ($\boldsymbol{\le 5\%}$) frequently unlock disproportionate gains in marginal realism, with median improvements of $\mathbf{17.3\%}$ and gains exceeding $\mathbf{30\%}$ in some datasets.} We further show that common forecasting strategies systematically occupy different regions of this frontier: direct multi-output predictors concentrate near the accuracy-optimal extreme, while recursive strategies and sample-based inference favors marginal realism. Together, these results expose a structural failure mode of MSE-based evaluation in long-horizon forecasting and recast strategy and inference selection as navigation of an unavoidable accuracy--realism trade-off.

One of the primary challenges in Bayesian inference on the parameters of a diffusion model from discrete observations is the unavailability of an analytical expression for the transition density function between consecutive observation times, which is needed to derive the likelihood function. Extending previous studies that solve Fokker-Planck (FP) type partial differential equations with Normalizing Flows, we propose a new Normalizing Flow architecture to learn the transition density function of the diffusion process between two observation times. We do so by solving in a Neural Galerkin framework the associated FP equation with a Dirac mass as initial condition, over a specified training distribution of the initial datum and the coefficients of the diffusion. We specifically focus on processes whose diffusion matrix vanishes in certain inaccessible boundary regions, such as Stochastic Volatility models that satisfy a Feller condition. The product of the obtained transition densities evaluated along the observed trajectory approximates the likelihood function, thereby enabling cheap posterior sampling via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). After the offline training phase, inference becomes significantly more efficient, as it avoids the need to solve the FP equation in real time for each parameter proposed by the MCMC sampler or to rely on other likelihood-free methods for Bayesian inference that involve repeated simulation of diffusion bridges.

We present a novel theoretical framework for deep reinforcement learning (RL) in continuous environments by modeling the problem as a continuous-time stochastic process, drawing on insights from stochastic control. Building on previous work, we introduce a viable model of actor-critic algorithm that incorporates both exploration and stochastic transitions. For single-hidden-layer neural networks, we show that the state of the environment can be formulated as a two time scale process: the environment time and the gradient time. Within this formulation, we characterize how the time-dependent random variables that represent the environment's state and estimate of the cumulative discounted return evolve over gradient steps in the infinite width limit of two-layer networks. Using the theory of stochastic differential equations, we derive, for the first time in continuous RL, an equation describing the infinitesimal change in the state distribution at each gradient step, under a vanishingly small learning rate. Overall, our work provides a novel nonparametric formulation for studying overparametrized neural actor-critic algorithms. We empirically corroborate our theoretical result using a toy continuous control task.

The Schrödinger Bridge Problem connects an initial distribution to a terminal one along a minimum-energy stochastic process. Its mean-field extension, the Mean-Field Schrödinger Bridge, governs interacting populations whose dynamics and costs depend on the collective distribution. When these interactions are nonlocal, their direct evaluation scales quadratically with the population size, making large ensembles intractable within FBSDE-based solvers. We replace these terms with neural surrogates in state and time, trained on empirical interaction values along sampled trajectories and embedded in a four-stage alternating scheme that updates the forward and backward potentials and the surrogates in turn, while preserving forward--backward consistency and the prescribed endpoint marginals. We derive Grönwall-type stability bounds quantifying how surrogate errors propagate to the generated trajectories under a small-gain condition. On crowd-navigation and high-dimensional opinion-dynamics benchmarks, the surrogates reproduce the trajectories obtained with exact evaluation at reduced training cost. The advantage is most significant when the interaction is a nonlinear functional of the measure, such as the normalized bounded-confidence drift, for which random-batch subsampling is biased and unstable whereas the learned surrogate remains accurate.

We study the robustness of stochastic mirror descent (SMD) under heavy-tailed noise, focusing on whether the method retains its convergence guarantees when run with infinite-variance stochastic gradient input. To address this question in a principled manner, we begin by introducing a continuous-time model of SMD as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by a centered Lévy noise process with finite $p$-th order moments, $1 < p \leq 2$. This scheme -- which we call the Lévy mirror flow (LMF) -- arises naturally as the scaling limit of SMD in the presence of heavy-tailed noise. In particular, when $p < 2$ -- the heavy noise regime -- the trajectories of LMF generically exhibit jump discontinuities of arbitrary magnitude which, if frequent enough, lead to infinite variance. Nonetheless, despite this highly singular behavior, we show that LMF attains $ε$-optimality within $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-p/(p-1)})$ time in the convex case, and within $\mathcal{\tilde O}(ε^{-1/(p-1)})$ time for (relatively) strongly convex objectives. These guarantees provide a transparent characterization of the impact of frequent long jumps on the convergence of the process, and percolate to a series of matching discrete-time guarantees for several variants of SMD under heavy-tailed noise.

Effective scheduling in the energy sector is essential to ensure the reliable operation of electrical grids and their connected assets by, for instance, optimizing the dispatch of generation units and storage systems. An effective planning strategy must (a) accommodate advanced and potentially non-linear system models -- exploiting the increasing data availability of modern grids, and (b) explicitly handle uncertainties arising, for instance, from the integration of renewable energy sources. While existing approaches can address either non-linearity (e.g., Monte Carlo Tree Search) or uncertainty (e.g., stochastic mathematical optimization), there is a lack of planning techniques capable of addressing both challenges simultaneously. To bridge this gap, we propose a Stochastic Scenario-Structured Tree Search (S3TS) algorithm that explicitly represents uncertainty through scenario trees while enabling the integration of advanced non-linear models. We evaluate S3TS on a simulated demand response signal publication problem, largely mimicking the imbalance settlement mechanism in Belgium. The results demonstrate near-optimal performance in linear, analytically tractable settings, with costs within 14% of the mathematically optimal solution conditioned to the scenario trees. In highly non-linear scenarios, S3TS significantly outperforms baseline methods, achieving cost reductions of up to 51% and 5.4% compared to a myopic algorithm and deterministic MCTS, respectively.

The localization of moving sound sources using a microphone array is typically based on modifying the signal to compensate for the Doppler effect. In the time domain this compensation is done on a sample-by-sample basis. In the frequency domain short time segments need to be used in which the Doppler effect is assumed to be approximately constant and a discrete Fourier transform is done on each segment. In contrast, the authors developed an inverse 2.5D localization method for uniformly moving single-frequency sources that works in the spectral domain and allows for the use of longer windows. This was achieved by modifying the 2.5D forward model to directly compute the effect of the motion in the static observer position. The method does neither require to modify the measured signal nor does it require quasi-stationary of the measurements within the window used. Unfortunately, this approach is not directly suitable for broad-band stochastic sources, and in the present work we will investigate how the statistical properties of a uniformly moving stochastic source change when observed at a static observer. Using a 2.5D setting, the relation between the power spectral density of the moving source and the Loève spectrum, which is a generalization of the cross-spectral density at the static receivers, was derived. Based on simulated data with speeds up to 100 m,s$^{-1}$, the work presented here provides a proof of concept for a method based on multi-taper estimates for the Loève spectrum to localize moving broad-band stochastic sources . Currently, the method requires a stationary source signal and that the spectral density is flat within a certain range around the frequency of interest. Also, correlations between sources are currently not considered.

Parameter estimation in stochastic differential equations is a classical statistical problem of much importance in many scientific fields. Recent work of Tapia Costa et al. (2026) introduced a novel technique for estimating the drift when the diffusion parameter is known, using discrete samples from multiple trajectories. Their method treats drift estimation as a denoising problem, and leverages tools from (conditional) score-matching diffusion models. Although their experiments showed promising results across different drift classes, the question of theoretical guarantees for their estimator was left unanswered. In this note, we address this gap by exploiting techniques from diffusion model theory. More concretely, we derive an explicit risk bound for the time-averaged mean-squared error of said drift estimator. Our bound decomposes the risk into the (i) Euler-Maruyama discretization, (ii) score/denoiser approximation, (iii) noise initialization, and (iv) sampling variance, revealing the trade-offs between the different hyperparameters and sources of error in the estimator.

Latent state-space models are widely used to study partially observed dynamical systems, yet most formulations assume that process variability is independent of latent-state position. In many biological, behavioral, and physiological systems, however, variability may depend systematically on the underlying dynamical state, producing structured stochasticity that is not captured by constant-variance models. We introduce a state-coupled stochastic volatility framework in which latent process variance depends on displacement from a latent equilibrium. To estimate this relationship under partial observation, we develop a particle expectation-maximization procedure combining bootstrap particle filtering and backward trajectory smoothing. The model includes a coupling parameter, $γ$, that quantifies the strength of association between latent-state position and process variability. A large-scale simulation benchmark evaluated recovery and detection performance across varying coupling strengths, observation noise levels, trajectory lengths, and persistence regimes. The proposed framework consistently reduced recovery bias relative to an observed-state heteroskedastic proxy, with the largest improvements occurring under strong coupling. Recovery performance improved with increasing latent persistence, while detection performance remained competitive across a broad range of conditions and became increasingly advantageous as observation noise increased. Taken together, the results demonstrate that state-coupled volatility can be identified and estimated under partial observation when latent-state structure is explicitly modeled. The framework provides a practical methodological foundation for studying state-dependent variability and evaluating whether structured stochasticity contributes information about system dynamics beyond that contained in mean-state trajectories alone.

Accurate Remaining Useful Life prediction is critical for industrial predictive maintenance. However, real-world deployment is challenging due to the irregular nature of sensor observations, characterized by asynchronous sampling, burst missingness, and temporal jitter. Compounding this issue, purely data-driven models often generate physically implausible degradation trajectories that violate the irreversible nature of damage accumulation. To address this, we propose PC-MambaSDE, a unified continuous-time framework for robust RUL prediction under irregular observations. Specifically, we design a Mask-Aware Continuous Mamba Encoder that explicitly leverages observation masks to extract context-rich control signals. Furthermore, we introduce a Physics-Guided Latent SDE with parametrically rectified hybrid drift, superimposing a global physical bias to enforce monotonic degradation even amid severe observation gaps. Additionally, we formulate RUL prediction as a boundary value problem via a Terminal Degradation Penalty, which decouples a Health Index dimension and applies a penalty loss to guide trajectories toward the failure state. Theoretically, we prove that our variational objective is mathematically equivalent to minimizing the KL divergence via Girsanov's theorem, and we guarantee the global asymptotic stability of the learned dynamics through Lyapunov analysis. To enable rigorous evaluation, we develop a Hybrid Irregularity Generation Scheme that simulates realistic industrial imperfections. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks demonstrate that PC-MambaSDE significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly under extreme observation scarcity, validating the efficacy of embedding physical priors into continuous-time latent dynamics.

We study fixed-confidence best-action identification (BAI) in stochastic minimax trees. This problem is increasingly relevant in modern AI planning, where deep minimax search and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with language model long rollouts face a fundamental tradeoff: heuristic evaluations are cheap but biased, while accurate rollouts are reliable but prohibitively expensive. We propose 2FFS, a two-fidelity tree-search algorithm that brings multi-fidelity flat bandit ideas into trees. The algorithm combines minimax-style fast expansion with MCTS-style stochastic sampling, adaptively deciding when to exploit cheap biased evaluations and when to invoke expensive accurate evaluations for local certification. We prove fixed-confidence correctness, establish finite stopping for exact identification, and give a polynomial-depth cost upper bound for general-depth trees. Across numerical stochastic-tree experiments, 2FFS uses substantially fewer samples and computational operations comparing to existing BAI-MCTS baseline.

Flow and diffusion models generate high-quality samples in many modalities; however, many network evaluations are required during inference due to numerical integration of an underlying differential equation. Flow maps alleviate this problem by learning the solution map of the differential equation directly, enabling few-step sampling. Yet, current methods are restricted to approximating the solution map of ODEs. These methods can be used to learn the transition kernel of an SDE, thereby obtaining a solution map that recovers the marginal distributions of the process (weak convergence) rather than the solution path (strong convergence). We propose Strong Stochastic Flow Maps (SSFMs) as a novel framework for learning the strong solution map of additive-noise SDEs, directly generalizing deterministic flow maps to the stochastic setting. Further, a polynomial approximation to Brownian motion is introduced and shown to converge pathwise. These results enable a simulation-free training objective for the solution map of diffusion models. We demonstrate that SSFMs outperform previous stochastic flow map methods on image generation and enable few-step sampling of molecular systems.

Large-scale vision foundation models have driven substantial gains on dense prediction tasks such as semantic segmentation, but their size makes deployment impractical in resource-constrained settings, motivating knowledge distillation as a means of transferring their capabilities to lightweight student networks. However, modern foundation teachers are predominantly transformer-based that encode global context, whereas efficient students are typically convolutional networks with locally biased receptive fields. Existing distillation methods largely assume architectural homogeneity and rely on direct feature mimicry, which fails to bridge this representational gap and neglects the structured spatial dependencies and discriminative organization required for accurate semantic segmentation. In this paper, we propose SWARD, a knowledge distillation framework that addresses this gap through two complementary mechanisms. First, we introduce a Multi-Scale Windowed Attention Distillation (MWAD) module that aligns teacher-student attention-based relations within stochastically shifted window partitions whose offsets are randomly resampled at every training iteration. This removes window boundary bias, and, combined with the multi-scale design, captures both short- and long-range spatial dependencies. Second, we introduce Prototype Discriminative Regularization (PDR), a loss that helps shape the student's feature distribution by enforcing inter-class separation and intra-class compactness, further sharpening the discriminative structure beyond what feature mimicry alone can produce under the student's reduced capacity. Experiments across different vision applications (i.e., urban scene parsing and medical image segmentation) show that SWARD achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Low-precision pretraining (FP8, MXFP4, NVFP4) is now standard for frontier language models, yet the literature is almost entirely achievability -- algorithms and empirical scaling laws -- with no matching characterization of what is information-theoretically possible. We study a B-bit quantized stochastic first-order oracle: an optimizer interacts for T rounds and receives, each round, a B-bit adaptive public-coin description of its stochastic gradient. Our main contribution is an exact reduction from optimizing a strongly convex quadratic family to interactively compressed Gaussian mean estimation -- under the B-bit oracle the query carries no information, so optimization collapses exactly onto a sequential distributed-estimation problem. This yields two unconditional lower bounds, a communication bound TB = Omega(d) and a statistical bound T = Omega(sigma^2 d / eps^2), and the sharp product-form bound T = Omega((sigma^2 d / eps^2) max{1, d/B}). The product form is also unconditional: a B-bit transcript carries at most O(TB / sigma^2) of Fisher trace about the mean, so bits rather than dimension limit the recoverable information, and combined with the multivariate van Trees inequality this gives the bound directly, without bounded-likelihood-ratio truncation. We give a near-matching achievability result with exact per-round bit accounting under a bounded-dynamic-range oracle, tight up to a logarithmic factor; the lower bound is for truly Gaussian (unbounded) gradients, and closing this oracle gap is left open. A sequential rate-distortion perspective extends the reduction to correlated and drifting oracles and corrects an earlier conjecture: positive noise correlation raises the bound by (1+rho)/(1-rho) rather than relaxing it. The bounds give an information-theoretic baseline for any low-bit gradient path, not an optimality claim about deployed FP4 systems.

Many stochastic gradient methods are believed not to converge when the noise in stochastic gradients has only a finite $p$-th moment for $p\in\left(1,2\right)$, a setting known as the heavy-tailed noise assumption. However, some recent studies have found that Stochastic Gradient Descent ($\textsf{SGD}$), without any modification to its update rule, can surprisingly converge in expectation for convex problems with bounded domains, highlighting the potential of classical stochastic gradient methods. Inspired by this recent progress, we provide a comprehensive study of stochastic optimization under heavy-tailed noise and establish new in-expectation convergence results for Stochastic Mirror Descent ($\textsf{SMD}$) and Accelerated Stochastic Mirror Descent ($\textsf{ASMD}$) in convex optimization, and for $\textsf{SGD}$ and Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum ($\textsf{SGDM}$) in nonconvex optimization. Notably, our results not only hold without algorithmic changes but also avoid restrictive assumptions, such as bounded domains, imposed in prior work. More importantly, our analysis provides a new, elegant, and powerful framework for studying heavy-tailed stochastic optimization, opening a new route to understanding first-order stochastic gradient methods.

Over the past half-dozen years, stochastic rounding (SR) has regained significant attention as a quantization scheme for low-precision floating-point arithmetic, with applications spanning numerical analysis and modern machine learning systems. Recent work has shown that SR acts as an implicit regularizer by increasing the smallest singular value of extremely tall-and-thin (or, symmetrically, short-and-fat) matrices. In this work, we substantially sharpen and extend this understanding in two directions. First, we show that the regularization effect of SR is not restricted to extreme aspect ratio regimes: it persists for matrices with constant aspect ratio. Second, we demonstrate that SR does not merely regularize the smallest singular value, but instead lifts entire clusters of singular values at the tail of the spectrum. Together, these results provide a more general characterization of stochastic rounding as a spectral regularizer, revealing that its effects extend beyond extremal aspect ratios and act on a broader portion of the singular value spectrum.

Tuning algorithms such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) for approximate sampling and uncertainty quantification remains challenging, particularly in the practically relevant settings when the batch size is large or the model is misspecified. Existing theory that provides tuning guidance relies on continuous-time limits or strong statistical assumptions, which can become quantitatively inaccurate in these regimes. We address these shortcomings by proposing new discrete-time approximations to SG(L)D with and without momentum, which enables accurate predictions of the stationary covariance, iterate average covariance, and integrated autocorrelation time. Moreover, we prove quantitative, non-asymptotic error bounds showing that these estimates are sufficiently accurate for practical tuning and uncertainty quantification. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our theory yields improved tuning guidance across a range of models and data-generating distributions where existing approaches fail, including when using the $β$-divergence rather than log-loss to obtain statistically robust inferences.

A central aim of deep learning theory is to characterize how neural networks make predictions in the regime of simultaneously large model and training set size. Since the limits of diverging number of model parameters and dataset size do not commute it is not clear a priori what limits exist. In this work, we shed new light on these questions by studying Bayesian inference in deep non-linear MLPs in the regime where the number of training samples ($P$), the input dimension ($N_0$), the hidden layer width ($N$), and the number of hidden layers ($L$) can all be large. We build on the Neural Covariance SDE (Li et al., 2022) to analyze predictive posteriors in the regime where $LP/N\inΘ(1)$, playing the role of an effective network depth. Our framework covers both smooth and ReLU activation functions and applies to arbitrary temperature. We find to first order in $LP/N$ a simple criterion for which data generating processes benefit from depth in the sense that larger $LP/N$ increases the Bayesian model evidence. We also give a novel derivation of a prior result from the physics literature that at least to first order in $LP/N$, the Bayesian predictive posterior is remarkably simple and is simply equivalent to that of a data-dependent kernel method.

Social systems consist of networks of individuals who influence one another through social interactions. Studying how processes evolve on these networks can help us better understand patterns of social behavior. We study a system that couples online and offline social activity and investigate how to learn effective models directly from data using Weak Form Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (WSINDy), a method for discovering governing equations. We assess learning performance using data generated by a mean-field approximation model of a stochastic interaction process on networks and test how accurately the system can be recovered under different noise levels. Our results show that using more trajectories improves accuracy when noise is high, but only a small number of additional trajectories is needed to gain most of the benefit, with little improvement beyond that. We also learn effective ODE models from averaged stochastic data on networks. When traditional mean-field approximations fail, identifying continuum ODEs directly from stochastic processes yields efficient models that better match the data and provide deeper insight into the underlying dynamics.

Diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art image synthesis, with their generative trajectories fundamentally exhibiting a spectral bias, resolving low-frequency global structures early and high-frequency fine details later. Conventional stochastic differential equation (SDE) solvers fail to account for this dynamic, naively injecting uniform white noise throughout the entire process and misusing the finite energy budget. In this work, we establish a mathematical framework that reconsiders SDE inference as a targeted, frequency-decoupled energy transfer. Leveraging this framework, we introduce Colored Noise Sampling (CNS), a novel, training-free stochastic solver. Rather than injecting uniform white noise, CNS utilizes a dynamic, timestep- and frequency-dependent schedule that more efficiently allocates injected energy toward structurally unresolved frequency bands. By actively exploiting the model's inherent spectral bias, CNS systematically steers the generated distribution toward the true data manifold. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CNS significantly outperforms standard ODE and SDE baselines as a strictly plug-and-play, inference-time sampler substitution across diverse architectures (SiT, JiT, FLUX). Compared to standard sampling on ImageNet-256, CNS achieves substantial unguided FID reductions, improving from 8.26 to 6.27 on SiT-XL/2, 32.39 to 26.69 on JiT-B/16, and 11.88 to 8.31 on JiT-H/16, while yielding consistent relative FID improvements with Classifier-Free Guidance. Project page is available at https://hadardavidson.github.io/CNS/.

Many stochastic physical systems evolve smoothly over time in the sense that the distribution of states changes regularly across time steps. The transition from current state to the next state can often be modeled as the combination of a smooth map and an explicit source of randomness. Stochastic Lifting exploits this structure by attaching an independent, high-dimensional random label to each state transition in the training data and fitting a transition map from the current state and label to the next state using a standard regression loss. The labels act as auxiliary coordinates that let the model represent multiple plausible next states from similar current states, avoiding collapse to a mean prediction in the finite-sample size regime. At inference, fresh labels are sampled at each time step and the learned map is rolled forward autoregressively, generating diverse trajectories with a single network evaluation per time step.

Existing theory of momentum assumes that gradients arrive at every parameter at a roughly constant rate, an assumption violated in practice by heavy-tailed data distributions and modern architectures. We theoretically analyze the dynamics of two tractable models of momentum under sparse updates: a least squares model with sparse inputs and a logistic regression model with a rare class. Both admit exact closed-form second-moment dynamics whose high-dimensional limits we characterize across three scaling exponents for sparsity, batch size, and momentum decay. The phase structure on both problems is governed by the ratio of two intrinsic timescales: a momentum retention timescale (how many active updates the buffer survives) and a learning timescale (how many active updates it takes to reduce the squared error). When learning is much slower than retention, the limit matches SGD; when learning is faster, the system is unstable; where the timescales coincide, we recover classical heavy-ball dynamics. The oscillatory dynamics occur at different momentum values for different token sparsity, creating a spectral conflict for global momentum across token frequencies.

Agentic AI systems combine probabilistic reasoning with delegated action through tools, context, memory, orchestration, and external workflow integration. This note develops a formal and managerially usable model that distinguishes Agentic Technical Debt from Stochastic Tax. Agentic Technical Debt is a stock of accumulated design and governance liability. Stochastic Tax is a recurring flow of operating burden that arises when stochastic agents are used in business workflows. The two constructs are related, but they are not the same: debt can amplify the tax, while the tax can remain positive even when debt is minimized. The note starts from a compact dashboard expression, expands it into a fuller structural model, defines all variables and parameters, shows how each cost category can be estimated from operational data, and illustrates the framework with an accounts-payable simulation and companion spreadsheet.

Extending discrete-time causal Prior-data Fitted Networks for time series to continuous time invites writing the mechanism as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) -- but if the SDE is integrated \emph{once per observation gap}, the trajectory law depends on when it is observed, and the prior remains a discrete-time Markov model in SDE clothing. We propose a precise continuity criterion -- trajectory-law invariance to the observation schedule -- together with a three-tier taxonomy (discrete; naive observation-grid integration; fine-grid integration with decoupled observation) and a construction realising the top tier on a random DAG with OU or small-MLP nonlinear drifts, irregular observation schedules, and hard / soft / time-varying interventions. A $2 \times 2$ encoder $\times$ integrator ablation, run independently on a linear and a nonlinear prior, finds fine-grid integration beats naive on 8/8 cells (sign-consistency $p < 1/256$) with the gap growing as the eval grid refines; the encoder axis is null with fine integration but time-aware-leading with naive. We release the prior and a preliminary zero-shot protocol on pharmacokinetic and physical-system data.

Discrete diffusion models achieve strong performance in text and image generation, but their inference remains slow and must inherently balance sampling efficiency and sample quality. In this work, we present a systematic study of how the \emph{degree of stochasticity} in Markov transitions governs the sampling tradeoff. We show that highly deterministic transitions converge rapidly but suffer from error accumulation, while more stochastic transitions converge more slowly yet can achieve higher final sample quality. Using an information-theoretic analysis, we identify the underlying mechanism as an error-correcting effect induced by \emph{redundant transitions} that symmetrically exchange mass between states, and show that these transitions can provably contract sampling errors. Motivated by this analysis, we propose \emph{Discrete Churn and Restart Sampling} (DCRS), a novel inference algorithm that injects controlled stochasticity by alternating between forward and reverse diffusion processes. Experiments on synthetic datasets and large-scale benchmarks show that DCRS improves the speed-quality tradeoff in the low number of function evaluations regime. On image datasets, DCRS achieves up to a $10\times$ reduction in sampling steps compared to standard samplers while maintaining competitive sample quality, whereas on language benchmarks, we observe more nuanced behavior depending on the corruption process and sampling procedure.

Reliable uncertainty quantification in continuous-time (CT) representation learning remains nascent, particularly within CT attention literature. We introduce the Neuronal Stochastic Attention Circuit (NSAC), a novel biologically-inspired CT attention architecture that reformulates attention logit computation as the solution of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic differential equation modulated by input-dependent, nonlinear interlinked gates derived from repurposed C. elegans Neuronal Circuit Policies (NCPs) wiring mechanism. It induces a Gaussian distribution over logits that propagates principled stochasticity through a logistic-normal distribution over attention weights to yield probabilistic output. A two-term objective function combining Gaussian negative log-likelihood with an epistemic-separation regularizer enforces higher predictive variance under distributional shifts and enables joint quantification of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Theoretically, we provide: (i) state stability bounds; (ii) closed-form guarantees; and (iii) frozen-coefficient error approximation. Empirically, we implement NSAC in a diverse set of learning tasks including: (i) irregular CT function approximation; (ii) multivariate regression; (iii) long-range forecasting; (iv) Industry 4.0; and (v) lane-keeping of autonomous vehicles. We observe that NSAC remains competitive against several baselines in terms of accuracy and produces informative uncertainty estimates while being interpretable at the neuronal cell level.

Existing work on population dynamics inference often focuses on flows arising from vector fields that are the gradients of scalar potentials. Among all admissible flows that are compatible with the population dynamics, gradient flows are optimal in a specific sense: they minimize kinetic energy. The selection of fields based on different criteria corresponds to a gauge freedom when determining population dynamics, which we leverage in this work. We propose Non-Gradient Inference Flows (NGIF), an algorithm to infer non-gradient population dynamics using a weak formulation of the continuity equation. This allows us to parameterize general vector fields and choose other selection criteria beyond minimal kinetic energy. We demonstrate on a variety of low- and high-dimensional physics problems that this more general approach improves distributional accuracy over gradient-restricted baselines and better captures non-potential transport.

Discounted reinforcement learning is usually presented through Bellman equations on closed Markov decision processes. This paper develops a compositional view: a one-step decision process is treated as an open stochastic component, and infinite-horizon policy evaluation is obtained by closing a contractive feedback loop. The resulting semantics assigns typed Bellman transformers to open components, interprets series and parallel wiring as composition and tensoring of transformers, and interprets feedback as an admissible guarded Banach trace realized by a unique fixed point. This perspective yields three theoretical consequences. First, approximate component equivalence is a contextual congruence for admitted well-typed guarded one-hole contexts: local operator error remains controlled after plugging the component into a surrounding circuit that uses the hole once and whose feedback nodes have certified uniform guardedness. Second, exact and approximate state abstractions become commuting or near-commuting coalgebraic diagrams, giving value-preservation and explicit sup-norm distortion bounds. Third, under monotone $ω$-continuous contract-transformer semantics, safety, risk, and resource specifications can be represented as quantale-valued contracts, where local inductive bounds lift through wiring and feedback by least-fixed-point reasoning. Its central claim is not that all RL morphisms form a global traced monoidal category, but that discounted Bellman evaluation admits a contractive feedback semantics on the admissible class of guarded circuits.

Time series driven by unobserved latent states frequently exhibit abrupt jump discontinuities whose timing and magnitude cannot be predicted from observed history alone. Classical jump-diffusion models offer a principled mathematical framework but assume rigid parametric forms, while recent neural jump models operate on fully observed trajectories without inferring the hidden states that govern the dynamics. We propose \textit{Deep ZakaiJ}, a latent-state model for partially observed jump-diffusion systems that embeds the Zakai nonlinear filtering equation into a neural encoder--decoder architecture. The encoder recursively updates a belief over the latent state via Strang splitting into three interpretable substeps: prior propagation, diffusion innovation, and jump innovation, yielding a differentiable, first-order-accurate approximation of the exact filtering evolution. The decoder is a structured jump-diffusion model explicitly conditioned on the filtered belief, preserving the separation between continuous dynamics and discontinuous shocks. On synthetic, financial, and oceanographic datasets, \textit{Deep ZakaiJ} improves distributional forecasts while remaining competitive in point accuracy, achieving calibrated predictive intervals and recovering interpretable latent structure in synthetic and qualitative case studies.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become an effective way to improve prompt alignment and perceptual quality in diffusion and flow-matching generators. A critical step for applying online RL to flow matching is turning the deterministic sampling trajectory into a stochastic policy, typically by replacing the reverse-time Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) with a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE). The stochastic sampler, controlling the exploration behavior and denoising dynamics, is thus part of the policy, and its design can significantly affect the reward optimization performance. We break down the sampler design into two interdependent components: choosing the right amount of stochastic exploration, and discretizing the resulting SDE faithfully at the small step counts used in RL. To address the first component, we analyze the inherent tension between exploration and stability in denoising and derive an SDE schedule that balances the two. Turning to the discretization challenge, we use a toy example to show that existing samplers can deviate from the flow-matching process, either by introducing excessive discretization noise or by relying on heuristic rules that do not guarantee convergence to the data distribution. To address these issues, we propose Precise, a new stochastic sampler that balances effective exploration with stability. Crucially, Precise keeps the denoising trajectory SDE-consistent through a novel approximation that freezes the clean-latent posterior mean, resolving the excess noise issue in standard samplers. Extensive experiments demonstrate that this formulation leads to significantly faster and more stable reward optimization via reinforcement learning, achieving state-of-the-art alignment scores (e.g., PickScore, HPSv2.1) while requiring 13.1-53.2% less wall-clock training time to match the best in-domain performance of prior samplers.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a central paradigm for scaling LLM reasoning, yet its optimization often suffers from training instability and suboptimal convergence. Through a systematic dissection of clipping-based GRPO-style objectives, we identify the rigid clipping decision induced by hard clipping as a key practical bottleneck in the studied RLVR setups. Specifically, our analysis suggests that informative signals can lie in the near-boundary region just beyond the clipping threshold, and are therefore discarded by the standard hard-clipping rule. Notably, once this bottleneck is precisely identified, even simple stochastic perturbations at the boundary can recover meaningful performance gains. Building on this finding, we propose Near-boundary Stochastic Rescue (NSR), a minimal, plug-and-play modification that stochastically retains these slightly out-of-bound tokens to recover lost signals. While NSR, via stochastic sampling, can be interpreted as inducing an implicit gradient decay in expectation, our ablations reveal that its stochastic, boundary-local rescue mechanism is consistently more effective than deterministic gradient decay. Validated by extensive experiments across model sizes from 7B to 30B and both dense and MoE architectures, as a plug-and-play solution, NSR substantially improves training stability and delivers consistent gains over strong baselines such as DAPO and GSPO.

In learning-augmented online algorithms, predictions are usually valued for what they say: a value estimate, a solution, or an algorithmic recommendation. This paper shows that predictions can also be valuable solely due to their arrival time. We study the fundamental secretary problem augmented with a stochastic precursor: a content-free signal that is guaranteed to arrive no later than the best item, but is otherwise stochastically timed. The signal does not carry any additional information; nevertheless, its timing alone changes the structure of optimal stopping. We characterize optimal policies in the random-order and adversarial-order models. In random order, a single uniformly timed precursor already gives success probability at least $\frac12$, improving on the classic $\frac1e$ benchmark. With increasingly late precursors, the success probability approaches $1$. In adversarial order, for which traditional models do not admit strong guarantees, sufficiently concentrated precursors recover constant success guarantees. Our results show that such novel forms of asynchronous temporal information are a distinct and powerful form of advice in online decision making and may also be effective for other problems.

Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is commonly modeled as a Langevin process, assuming that minibatch noise acts as Brownian motion. However, this approximation relies on a continuous-time limit and a sqrt(eta) noise scaling that does not match the discrete SGD update at finite learning rate. In this work, we propose an alternative formulation of SGD as deterministic dynamics in a fluctuating loss landscape induced by minibatch sampling. Starting directly from the discrete update, we derive a master equation for the parameter distribution and obtain a discrete Fokker--Planck equation that differs from the standard Langevin form at order eta^2. Using this framework, we analyze SGD dynamics near critical points of the loss. We show that the behavior decomposes along the eigenbasis of the mean Hessian into qualitatively distinct regimes. In particular, nearly-flat directions do not admit a stationary distribution: the variance grows over time, corresponding to effective diffusion along valleys with a coefficient proportional to the learning rate. We provide empirical evidence supporting these predictions on neural network models in computer vision and natural language processing, observing a clear qualitative separation between confined and diffusive modes.

Diffusion models have emerged as a dominant framework for generative modeling, but their mathematical foundations are often presented separately through diffusion probabilistic models, score-based modeling, stochastic differential equations, and numerical sampling methods. We write this tutorial to provide a unified and self-contained account of these viewpoints from the perspective of differential equations. Starting from a conditional Gaussian noising process, we derive ordinary differential equation (ODE) and stochastic differential equation (SDE) representations, pass to the corresponding marginal forward dynamics, and then obtain the reverse-time SDE and probability-flow ODE that make generation possible. We show that the central unknown quantity in reverse sampling is the marginal score, explain how score matching becomes the standard denoising objective under a noise-prediction parameterization, and discuss practical reverse-time sampling and guidance. We further place DDPM, DDIM, flow matching, and score-based SDEs in a common framework, and conclude with diffusion language models in continuous embedding space together with a brief discussion of discrete masked-token diffusion. The tutorial is intended as a bridge between the analytical foundations of diffusion processes and the modern generative algorithms built upon them.

Diffusion models have achieved remarkable success in generating samples from unknown data distributions. Most popular stochastic differential equation-based diffusion models perturb the target distribution by adding Gaussian noise, transforming it into a simple prior, and then use denoising score matching, a consequence of Tweedie's formula, to learn the score function and generate clean samples from noise. However, non-Gaussian diffusion models with state-dependent diffusion coefficient have been largely underexplored, as have the corresponding Tweedie's formulae. In this work, we extend Tweedie's formula to important non-Gaussian processes, including geometric Brownian motion (GBM), squared Bessel (BESQ) processes, and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) processes, thereby yielding the corresponding denoising score-matching objectives. We then apply the derived formulae to image and financial time series generation using GBM- and CIR-based diffusion models, and to empirical Bayes estimation under the BESQ setting. The reported experimental results demonstrate the potential of non-Gaussian models.

Adaptive decision-making in biological and artificial intelligence requires balancing the exploitation of known outcomes with the exploration of uncertain alternatives. Although prior work suggests that uncertainty generally promotes exploration, it has typically treated distinct sources of environmental uncertainty as equivalent. We consider environments with latent reward states that drift over time (volatility) and are observed through noisy outcomes (stochasticity). Both increase posterior uncertainty, yet we show they drive optimal exploration in opposite directions: volatility enhances it, stochasticity suppresses it. We establish this asymmetry formally by extending the Gittins index framework to Gaussian state-space bandits with latent dynamics. We further derive Cause-Aware Uncertainty-Sensitive Exploration (CAUSE), a closed-form exploration bonus obtained via control-as-inference that inherits the same monotonicities. CAUSE outperforms standard exploration strategies in environments with heterogeneous noise structure, and also improves on a Gittins-per-arm policy whose rested-bandit optimality does not transfer to restless settings. Learning and exploration are governed by the same noise-inference asymmetry, and the framework predicts that pathological noise inference produces \emph{reversed} rather than merely impaired exploration, with implications for computational accounts of psychiatric conditions.

Constrained machine learning enables fairness-aware training, physics-informed neural networks, and integration of symbolic domain knowledge into statistical models. Despite its practical importance, no general method exists for the non-convex, non-smooth, stochastic setting that arises naturally in deep learning. We propose the Stochastic Penalty-Barrier Method (SPBM), which extends classical penalty and barrier methods to this setting via exponential dual averaging, a stabilized penalty schedule, and the Moreau envelope to handle non-smoothness. Experiments across multiple settings show that SPBM matches or outperforms existing constrained optimization baselines while incurring only linear runtime overhead compared to unconstrained Adam for up to 10,000 constraints.

The Föllmer process is a Brownian motion conditioned to have a pre-specified distribution at time 1. This process can be interpreted as an ``augmented'' time-compressed version of the reverse stochastic differential equation (SDE) corresponding to the denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM). While this fact has been indirectly used to analyze DDPM sampling errors via discretization of the reverse SDE, the connection between direct discretization of the Föllmer process and the DDPM sampler has not yet been fully explored. This paper clarifies this point while surveying relevant results from the literature. We show that discretized Föllmer processes give natural hyper-parameter settings of the DDPM sampler while accommodating a broader class of variance schedules than discretized reverse SDEs. Moreover, this allows us to systematically recover state-of-the-art results on DDPM sampling error bounds, along with slight improvements.

Understanding the behavior of stochastic gradient methods is a central problem in modern machine learning. Recent work has highlighted diagonal linear networks as a simplified yet expressive setting for analyzing the optimization and generalization properties of neural models. In this work, we show that in the high-dimensional regime, stochastic gradient descent on diagonal linear networks is well-approximated by continuous dynamics governed by a stochastic differential equation (SDE), which explicitly decouples the drift from the gradient noise. We further derive a deterministic partial differential equation whose solution propagates the relevant state of the iterates and characterizes the time evolution of a broad class of observable statistics, including the risk, curvature, and other metrics for optimality. Finally, we show that, under a suitable parametrization, the stochastic dynamics are globally well posed and converge exponentially fast to zero risk with high probability, yielding a fully explicit non-asymptotic description of their long-time behavior. Numerical simulations corroborate our theoretical findings.

We introduce a novel framework for uncertainty quantification of solution operators associated with stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Although SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under uncertainty, their practical use typically requires specifying the magnitude and structure of model uncertainties that are often unknown and difficult to infer from noisy measurements. To address this challenge, we develop a stochastic operator-learning framework that learns directly from noisy data and outputs both a mean solution field and a quantification of uncertainty. The proposed method, namely the Stochastic Operator Network (SON), is constructed by combining the structure of the Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) with Stochastic Neural Networks (SNNs) to model stochasticity and enable probabilistic prediction. The training procedure is carried out by minimizing a Hamiltonian-type loss and optimizing the resulting objective using the Stochastic Maximum Principle. Numerical experiments on benchmark SPDEs under multiple uncertainty sources demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method in capturing solution structure and quantifying predictive uncertainty.

Video generative models have made remarkable progress, yet they often yield visual artifacts that violate grounding in physical dynamics. Recent works such as PhysGen3D tackle single image-to-3D physics through mesh reconstruction and Physically-Based Rendering, but challenges remain in modeling fluid dynamics, multi-object interactions and photorealism. This work introduces 3DPhysVideo, a novel training-free pipeline that generates physically realistic videos from a single image. We repurpose an off-the-shelf video model for two stages. First, we use it as a novel view synthesizer to reconstruct complete 360-degree 3D scene geometry by guiding the image-to-video (I2V) flow model with rendered point clouds. Second, after applying physics solvers to this geometry, the physically simulated point cloud is used to guide the same I2V flow model to synthesize final, high-quality videos. Consistency-Guided Flow SDE, which decomposes the predicted velocity of the I2V flow model into denoising and consistency bias, enforces consistency to the conditional inputs, allowing us to effectively repurpose the model for both 3D reconstruction and simulation-guided video generation. In the diverse experiments including multi-objects, and fluid interaction scenes, our method successfully bridges the gap from single-images to physically plausible videos, while remaining efficient to run on a single consumer GPU. It outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on GPT-based scores, VideoPhy benchmark and human evaluation.

Neural operators excel as deterministic surrogates, but inevitably collapse to the conditional mean when applied to stochastic PDEs, discarding the variance and tail structure upon which uncertainty quantification depends. Recovering this structure typically requires Monte Carlo rollouts or grafted generative models, both of which surrender the one-shot efficiency and resolution invariance that define the operator paradigm. To resolve this, we draw on the Doob-Meyer theorem, which establishes that any semimartingale fundamentally decomposes into a predictable drift and an unpredictable, zero-mean martingale. Translating this theorem into an architectural prior, we introduce the Martingale Neural Operator (MNO). MNO maps an initial condition directly to the conditional mean and covariance of the terminal law, parameterized by a drift-like mean and a low-rank factor $B_φ$ with $B_φ^\top B_φ$ positive semi-definite by construction. For our experiments, we use a Gaussian residual instantiation. Across 1D SPDEs, rough volatility, and 2D operator tasks, MNO reduces Wasserstein distance by up to $120\times$ on $φ^4$ field theory and $68\times$ on stochastic Burgers, evaluating $\sim 3\times$ faster than a conditional diffusion baseline at matched wall-clock training budgets. On 2D tasks, MNO is comparable to FNO on zero-shot resolution transfer and turbulent flow, while quasi-deterministic systems such as Gray-Scott remain a failure mode.

We introduce the Estimated Dynamic Equilibrium Model (EDEM), an agent-based framework that treats supply and demand as a coupled stochastic process driven by heterogeneous, noisy agent valuations. The model's primary technical contribution is the identification of a generative mechanism for persistent disequilibrium: when market-clearing prices are sequentially sampled from the upper tail of noisy bid distributions and recycled as inputs for future valuations, expected prices drift upward despite strictly zero-mean estimation errors. We derive this order-statistic bias in closed form for i.i.d. uniform bids and use simulations to show that compounding this bias across epochs yields exponential price growth without requiring assumptions of investor optimism or irrationality. This framework extends Miller's divergence-of-opinion theory to a dynamic setting, recovering Walrasian equilibrium and Miller's static premium as limiting cases. Through controlled experiments and sensitivity analysis on a simulated real-estate neighborhood, we identify six distinct regimes-ranging from band-stability to runaway bubbles-emerging from a single agent ruleset. These results offer a potential explanation for the contradictory findings in the empirical divergence-of-opinion literature and suggest that machine-learning valuation algorithms may inadvertently amplify this inherent statistical bias.

Stochastic estimators are fundamental to large-scale optimization, where population quantities must be inferred from noisy oracle observations. Although influential methods such as momentum, SPIDER, STORM, and PAGE have been highly successful, their analyses are largely estimator-specific and expectation-based, obscuring the structural tradeoffs that determine reliability. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for stochastic variance-reduced estimation based on a recursion with three components: memory retention, reset probability, and a correction term for iterate movement. This framework recovers several classical estimators, motivates new second-order variants, and yields a bias-variance decomposition of estimation error. Our main result is a unified high-probability bound proved using a new dimension-free vector-valued Freedman inequality, valid for smooth normed spaces involving random sums of vector martingales. The result applies in both Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings, including the analysis of mirror-descent-based methods in Banach spaces. As applications, we obtain high-probability oracle complexities for unconstrained optimization with mirror descent, establishing the logarithmic dependence on the confidence level. We also derive the first $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-3})$ oracle-complexity bounds for stochastic optimization with expectation constraints, improving upon the existing $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-4})$ complexity by leveraging variance-reduced estimation for the first time in this setting.

Stochastic compositional optimization minimizes objectives of the form $\min_{\bm{x} \in \mathcal{X}} F(\bm{f}(\bm{x}), \bm{x})$, where $\bm{f}$ is accessible only through noisy stochastic queries. Existing methods for this problem assume that the outer function $F$ is continuously differentiable, which excludes many practically important applications such as robust max-of-losses, Conditional Value-at-Risk, and norm regularizers. We propose the Hybrid Momentum Stochastic Frank--Wolfe algorithm, which drops the smoothness assumption on $F$. By combining a momentum-based Jacobian tracker with a Taylor-corrected function tracker, the algorithm feeds an entire stochastic linearization -- rather than a single gradient -- into a generalized linear minimization oracle. We establish an $\mathcal{O}(K^{-1/4})$ convergence rate in the generalized Frank--Wolfe gap for non-convex objectives with $L_F$-Lipschitz outer functions, matching the optimal complexity for projection-free single-sample stochastic methods under expected smoothness. The analysis extends to heavy-tailed noise oracles with bounded $r$-th moments for $r \in (1, 2]$ and recovers the deterministic rates of Vladarean et al (2023) as the noise vanishes.

The multi-path Traveling Salesman Problem with stochastic travel costs arises in hybrid vehicle routing applications designed for Smart City and City Logistics, where multiple paths exist between each pair of locations. Travel times along these paths are typically affected by real-time traffic conditions and therefore modeled as stochastic. The objective of the problem is to determine a Hamiltonian tour that minimizes the expected total travel cost under uncertainty. In this work, we adopt a two-stage stochastic programming formulation. In the first stage, a predefined route specifying the sequence of locations to be visited is determined, while taking into consideration a second-stage recourse problem that selects the optimal path from the feasible set of alternative paths for each pair of locations, once real-time traffic conditions are realized. To reduce the computational burden imposed by the large number of scenarios required to capture travel time uncertainty, the innovation of this work is the integration of neural network-based surrogate models to approximate the expected value of the second-stage recourse problem. Different architectures and training strategies for the neural networks are proposed and analyzed, with performance evaluated in terms of computation time, solution quality, and generalization capability. Preliminary findings demonstrate the enhanced scalability and practical applicability of the approach for complex vehicle routing problems under uncertainty.

Deep learning methods based on backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) have emerged as competitive alternatives to physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for solving high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs). By leveraging probabilistic representations, BSDE approaches can avoid the curse of dimensionality and often admit second-order-free training objectives that do not require explicit Hessian evaluations. It has recently been established that the commonly used Euler-Maruyama (EM) time discretization induces an intrinsic bias in BSDE training losses. While high-order schemes such as Heun can fully eliminate this bias, such schemes re-introduce second-order spatial derivatives and incur substantial computational overhead. In this work, we provide a principled analysis of EM-induced loss bias and propose an unbiased, second-order-free training framework that preserves the computational advantages of BSDE methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/seojaemin22/Un-EM-BSDE.

"Oh-Oh, yes, I'm the great pretender. Pretending that I'm doing well. My need is such, I pretend too much..." summarizes the state in the area of jailbreak creation and evaluation. You find this method to generate adversarial attacks proposed by a reputable institution (e.g., BoN from Anthropic or Crescendo from Microsoft Research). However, this method does not deliver on the promise claimed in the paper despite having top ASR scores against industry-grade LLMs. You successfully generate the jailbreak prompts against your target (open) model. However, the generated jailbreak prompt works against the target model with a 50% consecutive success rate (5 out of 10 attempts) despite having an 80% ASR (on paper) on the latest closed-source model (with a guardrail system)! This observation leads us to think. First, Attack Success Rate (ASR), the primary metric for LLM jailbreak benchmarking, is not a stable quantity. Second, published ASR numbers are therefore systematically inflated and incomparable across papers. Therefore, we wonder "Why a successful jailbreak prompt does not perform consistently well against a target model on which the prompts have been optimized?". To answer this question, we study the impact of stochasticity not only during attack evaluation but also during attack generation. Our evaluation includes several jailbreak attacks, models (different sizes and providers), and judges. In addition, we propose a new metric and two new frameworks (CAS-eval and CAS-gen). Our evaluation framework, CAS-eval, shows that an attack can have an ASR drop of up to 30 percentage points when a jailbreak prompt needs to succeed on more than one attempt. Thankfully, our attack generation framework (CAS-gen) improves previous jailbreak methods and helps them recover this loss of 30 percentage points!

This paper introduces a physics-informed generative framework that resolves the fundamental conflict between the statistical flexibility of deep learning and the rigorous theoretical constraints of fixed-income modeling. We demonstrate that standard generative models and unconstrained statistical extrapolations suffer from "manifold collapse" and severe arbitrage violations when forecasting term structures across diverse macroeconomic regimes. To overcome this, we propose a two-stage architecture. First, a Student-t Conditional Variational Autoencoder with Dynamic Level Injection (CVAEsT+LS) extracts a robust, heavy-tailed term structure manifold, effectively decoupling macroeconomic shape dynamics from absolute base rates. Second, the latent dynamic evolution is governed by a continuous-time Neural Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) strictly penalized by a No-Arbitrage Partial Differential Equation (PDE). Empirical results across multiple sovereign currencies (USD, GBP, JPY) confirm that our synergistic approach drastically reduces out-of-sample forecasting errors -- achieving an exceptional 6.58 bps Mean Tenor RMSE -- and successfully overcomes the massive parallel drift and zero-lower-bound violations exhibited by the classical HJM model in extreme environments. Furthermore, through phase space vector field analysis, we demonstrate the model's superior capability in unsupervised macroeconomic regime detection and high-quality continuous-time scenario generation. Ultimately, this research provides a highly scalable, mathematically sound evolutionary engine for term structure modeling.

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods, but most SBI methods assume a black-box data generating process. While these surrogates are exact in the limit of infinite training data, practical scenarios force a strict tradeoff between model quality and simulation cost. In this work, we loosen the black-box assumption of SBI to improve this tradeoff for structured stochastic process models. Specifically, for neural network likelihood surrogates trained via probabilistic classification, we propose to augment the standard binary cross-entropy loss with exact score information $\nabla_θ\log p(x \mid θ)$ and adaptive weighting based on loss gradients. We evaluate our approach on case studies involving network dynamics and spatial processes, demonstrating that our method improves surrogate quality at a drastically lower computational cost than generating more training data. Notably, in some cases, our approach achieves downstream inference performance equivalent to a 10x increase in training data with less than a 1.1x increase in training time.

We study a sequential resource allocation problem motivated by adaptive network recruitment, in which a limited budget of identical resources must be allocated over multiple rounds to individuals with stochastic referral capacity. Successful referrals endogenously generate future decision opportunities while allocating additional resources to an individual exhibits diminishing returns. We first show that the single-round allocation problem admits an exact greedy solution based on marginal survival probabilities. In the multi-round setting, the resulting Bellman recursion is intractable due to the stochastic, high-dimensional evolution of the frontier. To address this, we introduce a population-level surrogate value function that depends only on the remaining budget and frontier size. This surrogate enables an exact dynamic program via truncated probability generating functions, yielding a planning algorithm with polynomial complexity in the total budget. We further analyze robustness under model misspecification, proving a multi-round error bound that decomposes into a tight single-round frontier error and a population-level transition error. Finally, we evaluate our method on real-world inspired recruitment scenarios.

We study stochastic minimum-cost reach-avoid reinforcement learning, where an agent must satisfy a reach-avoid specification with probability at least $p$ while minimizing expected cumulative costs in stochastic environments. Existing safe and constrained reinforcement learning methods typically fail to jointly enforce probabilistic reach-avoid constraints and optimize cost in the learning setting in stochastic environments. To address this challenge, we introduce reach-avoid probability certificates (RAPCs), which identify states from which stochastic reach-avoid constraints are satisfiable. Building on RAPCs, we develop a contraction-based Bellman formulation that serves as a principled surrogate for integrating reach-avoid considerations into reinforcement learning, enabling cost optimization under probabilistic constraints. We establish almost sure convergence of the proposed algorithms to locally optimal policies with respect to the resulting objective. Experiments in the MuJoCo simulator demonstrate improved cost performance and consistently higher reach-avoid satisfaction rates.

Modelling extreme events and heavy-tailed phenomena is central to building reliable predictive systems in domains such as finance, climate science, and safety-critical AI. While Lévy processes provide a natural mathematical framework for capturing jumps and heavy tails, Bayesian inference for Lévy-driven stochastic differential equations (SDEs) remains intractable with existing methods: Monte Carlo approaches are rigorous but lack scalability, whereas neural variational inference methods are efficient but rely on Gaussian assumptions that fail to capture discontinuities. We address this tension by introducing a neural exponential tilting framework for variational inference in Lévy-driven SDEs. Our approach constructs a flexible variational family by exponentially reweighting the Lévy measure using neural networks. This parametrization preserves the jump structure of the underlying process while remaining computationally tractable. To enable efficient inference, we develop a quadratic neural parametrization that yields closed-form normalization of the tilted measure, a conditional Gaussian representation for stable processes that facilitates simulation, and symmetry-aware Monte Carlo estimators for scalable optimization. Empirically, we demonstrate that the method accurately captures jump dynamics and yields reliable posterior inference in regimes where Gaussian-based variational approaches fail, on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Multi-agent trajectory modeling traditionally focuses on forecasting, often neglecting more general tasks like trajectory completion, which is essential for real-world applications such as correcting tracking data. Existing methods also generally predict agents' states without offering any state-wise measure of heteroscedastic uncertainty. Moreover, popular multi-modal sampling methods lack error probability estimates for each generated scene under the same prior observations, which makes it difficult to rank the predictions at inference time. We introduce U2Diffine, a unified diffusion model built to perform trajectory completion while simultaneously offering state-wise heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates. This is achieved by augmenting the standard denoising loss with the negative log-likelihood of the predicted noise, and then propagating the latent space uncertainty to the real state space using a first-order Taylor approximation. We also propose U2Diff, a faster baseline that avoids gradient computation during sampling. This approach significantly increases inference speed, making it as efficient as a standard generative-only diffusion model. For post-processing, we integrate a Rank Neural Network (RankNN) that enables error probability estimation for each generated mode, demonstrating strong correlation with ground truth errors. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in both trajectory completion and forecasting across four challenging sports datasets (NBA, Basketball-U, Football-U, Soccer-U), underscoring the effectiveness of our uncertainty and error probability estimation.

Turbulent dynamical systems are characterized by nonlinear interactions and stochastic effects that generate coupled statistical quantities, such as non-zero higher-order moments, which are difficult to capture from data with accuracy. We propose a two-stage data-driven modeling framework that combines symbolic regression with generative models to jointly identify the governing dynamics and predict their key statistical quantities. In Stage I of the framework, the Finite Expression Method (FEX) is adopted to discover closed-form expressions of the deterministic dynamics, recovering nonlinear interaction terms and external forcing without predefined libraries. In Stage II, generative models are introduced to learn the residual stochastic components as a refined correction to the model error from the Stage I approximation, enabling accurate characterization of higher-order statistics. Theoretical analysis establishes the consistency of the symbolic estimator and quantifies the estimation error in terms of data size and numerical discretization. The model performance is verified through detailed numerical experiments on the stochastic triad models across multiple regimes, demonstrating that the framework successfully recovers interaction terms and forcing expressions, and accurately predicts statistical moments up to order five. These results highlight the potential of integrating interpretable symbolic discovery with data-driven stochastic modeling for complex turbulent systems.

Many systems in physics, engineering, and biology exhibit multiscale stochastic dynamics, where low-dimensional slow variables evolve under the influence of high-dimensional fast processes. In practice, observations are often limited to a single trajectory of the slow component, while the fast dynamics remain unobserved, making statistical learning challenging. Approaches based on partial differential equations (PDE), such as Fokker-Planck formulations, aim to characterize the evolution of probability densities, typically requiring dense space-time data or grid-based solvers. In contrast, we adopt a trajectory-based perspective and develop a data-driven framework for learning effective stochastic dynamics from a single observed path. We model the dynamics by coupled multiscale stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and first obtain a principled model reduction through stochastic averaging. Unlike generic model reduction techniques such as PCA, this respects the dynamical structure of the original system and explicitly incorporates the interaction between slow and fast scales. A central challenge, however, is that the reduced model depends on the invariant distribution of the fast process, which is a solution to an intractable and often unknown PDE. We introduce a novel learning framework that parameterizes the invariant distribution using normalizing flows, enabling expressive density modeling in the latent fast-variable space. The flow is trained end-to-end by optimizing a penalized likelihood objective induced by the reduced stochastic dynamics. Furthermore, we develop a Bayesian variational inference procedure for uncertainty quantification, employing a second normalizing flow to approximate the posterior distribution over model parameters. This yields a scalable approach to capturing epistemic uncertainty in multiscale systems.

Modern generative models can be understood as probability transport from a simple base distribution to a target data distribution. Deterministic transport models offer tractable velocity-field parameterizations, whereas stochastic generative models capture richer density evolution through drift and diffusion. Yet when stochastic dynamics are described through deterministic velocity fields, the effects of drift and diffusion are often compressed into a single effective field, obscuring the distinct roles of deterministic evolution and stochastic fluctuation. In this work, we show that the deterministic field $b_t$ of a stochastic generative process admits a natural transport--osmotic decomposition that separates deterministic transport from stochastic, diffusion-induced effects: $b_t = u_t + d_t$, where $u_t$ governs marginal probability transport and $d_t$ captures an osmotic effect induced by diffusion and determined by the marginal score. Based on this decomposition, we propose Bridge Matching, a flow-based framework for learning decomposed generative dynamics through both marginal and conditional formulations. In generative modeling experiments, we recombine the learned components as $b_t = u_t + λ_d d_t$, showing that the proposed decomposition enables interpretable and controllable sampling by adjusting the osmotic contribution in probability transport.

Practical diffusion sampling is a numerical approximation problem: under a fixed inference budget, one must simulate a reverse-time ODE or SDE using only a limited number of denoising steps, so discretization error is often the dominant source of error. Existing non-asymptotic analyses provide convergence guarantees, but are typically too loose and too insensitive to diffusion parameters to guide practical design: broad families of schedules receive the same rates, which depend on coarse worst-case quantities such as the dimension or the drift Lipschitz constant. We take a less ambitious but more informative route. In the exact-score setting, we derive first-order asymptotic expansions of the Euler-Maruyama weak and Fréchet discretization errors. These formulas hold for general smooth reverse diffusions and become fully explicit under Gaussian data. They show how discretization error adapts to the geometry of the data through the covariance spectrum, and how this geometry interacts with key diffusion parameters, including the diffusion schedules and the diffusion-term coefficient. This yields tractable objectives for geometry-aware parameter optimization. Finally, we show that the qualitative predictions of the Gaussian formulas remain robust across diffusion sampling problems with different geometries, including image generation on different datasets and image posterior sampling.

Discrete flow matching generates text by iteratively transforming noise tokens into coherent language, but may require hundreds of forward passes. Distillation uses the multi-step trajectory to train a student to reproduce the process in a few steps. When the student underperforms, the usual explanation is insufficient capacity. We argue the opposite: the trajectory is the bottleneck, not the student. Each training trajectory is built through a chain of blind stochastic jumps with no evaluation of sequence quality; a single bad decision at an early midpoint propagates through subsequent steps, yet the student must imitate the result. Trajectory-Shaped Discrete Flow Matching (TS-DFM) replaces these blind jumps with guided navigation: a lightweight energy compass evaluates candidate continuations at each midpoint, selecting the most coherent. All shaping is training-only; inference cost is unchanged. On 170M-parameter language modeling, the shaped student at 8 steps achieves 32% lower perplexity than the 1,024-step teacher while being 128x faster, with gains consistent across source distributions and three evaluators of increasing scale. TS-DFM achieves the best perplexity of any discrete-generation baseline we compare against, including methods trained on 6x more data or using 5x larger models.