Tabular Data

Schema matching is a fundamental step in integrating heterogeneous data sources. While Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) have revolutionized this task by capturing linguistic semantics, they typically process tabular data as serialized text sequences of standalone column descriptions. This serialization discards critical structural information -- specifically, the row-level co-occurrences, i.e. the relational context -- forcing models to rely solely on column header semantics or standalone distributions. To bridge this gap, we propose SemStruct, a framework that joins the semantic power of frozen PLMs with the structural inductive bias of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). We model the table as a heterogeneous graph where columns and values are nodes connected by rows, allowing the GNN to propagate disambiguating context across the structure. Unlike other state-of-the-art methods that require proprietary LLM access and fine-tuning of language models, SemStruct keeps the language model frozen and trains only a lightweight structural encoder. Extensive experiments on the Valentine and SOTAB-SM benchmarks demonstrate that SemStruct achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming fully fine-tuned baselines on complex, semantically joinable datasets. Furthermore, our ablation studies reveal that row representations serve primarily as topological conduits rather than semantic entities, validating the necessity of explicit structural modeling in schema matching.

Numeric tabular datasets are the dominant data format in scientific practice, yet large language models lack native mechanisms for representing numeric datasets in a meaningful way across heterogeneous feature spaces. Existing approaches either target predictive modeling over individual datasets, which requires a shared set of variable definitions, or lack mechanisms for interpretable cross-dataset alignment. The proposed methodology characterizes numeric tabular datasets through structured exploratory data analysis descriptors, embeds those descriptors into a shared vector space using a pretrained sentence transformer, and quantifies cross-dataset similarity via Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Furthermore, a penalized formulation of CCA is applied to recover sparse, interpretable variable-level correspondences between datasets, identifying which statistical descriptors or variable-level quantities drive cross-dataset alignment without requiring shared variable names or feature conventions. Differential privacy is optionally applied to the descriptor set prior to embedding, supporting deployment in sensitive data contexts without requiring access to raw observations at time of comparison. The methodology is evaluated across 15 datasets spanning general-purpose benchmarks, materials informatics, and nuclear-grade graphite characterization. Results demonstrate a total P@1 score of 0.9, with known nearest-neighbor retrieval and cluster structure remaining robust across embedding ablations and differential privacy budgets. The proposed framework provides a principled pathway for integrating heterogeneous numeric data into retrieval-augmented generation pipelines while preserving statistical context, with direct applications to data-driven algorithm selection and simulation model initialization for unknown datasets.

Modern statistical learning theory and deep learning characterize generalization primarily in terms of continuous capacity control (e.g., norm-based regularization, margin maximization, low-rank bias). While highly successful in continuous domains, deep learning consistently fails to extrapolate exact algorithmic or discrete algebraic rules, reflecting a missing inductive bias toward algorithmic complexity minimization. We propose the Cayley-table completion as the canonical testbed for this missing bias, serving as the discrete algebraic counterpart to matrix completion. Just as matrix factorization combined with weight decay yields an implicit geometric bias toward low linear rank, recent results demonstrate that operator-valued tensor factorizations paired with a flatness prior yield an implicit algorithmic bias toward exact discrete associativity. We pose the open problem of establishing formal exact recovery bounds for Cayley-table completion, and challenge the community to generalize continuous flatness priors to autonomously discover broader discrete algorithmic axioms without combinatorial search.

Data stream processing has become a landmark in modern machine learning applications, with concept drifts and novel class appearances posing the primary challenges faced by sophisticated recognition methods. This work proposes an unsupervised concept drift detection method that identifies shifts in known class distributions based on the reconstruction errors of an autoencoder, while also enabling the recognition of novel class samples through density estimation of a proxy representation of samples. Using mirrored autoencoders allows for independent incremental adaptation to changing problem distributions for the two considered tasks, resulting in continuous adjustment to evolving concepts and reliable recognition of unknown samples. Conducted experiments used a diverse set of synthetic tabular data streams, where both concept drifts and the emergence of novelties were observed. The results show that the proposed approach is competitive with current state-of-the-art unsupervised drift detectors and novelty classifiers.

Under standard graphical assumptions, the Markov boundary of a target variable is the smallest set of features that renders every other feature redundant. Once the boundary is observed, the target is conditionally independent of the rest of the table. This is a tempting object for tabular prediction, since it names exactly the columns a model should need. Yet modern regressors are still trained on the full feature set. We ask whether the Markov boundary is genuinely useful for prediction on SCM3K, a 3,450-task synthetic SCM benchmark with feature counts from 40 to 1000 and six SCM families, evaluated with six regressors. The answer is more nuanced than the theory suggests. Restricting a regressor to the oracle boundary often improves prediction substantially, and the improvement grows as the feature space becomes larger and sparser. But the natural pipeline of recovering the boundary with causal discovery and training on the recovered mask does not deliver. Existing estimators exhaust the compute budget before reaching the regime where the boundary helps most, and even where they run they rarely beat the full feature set. We trace this to three causes. Discovery optimizes structural recovery rather than prediction. False negatives and false positives carry sharply asymmetric predictive cost. The exact boundary is only one of many feature sets that beat all features. We then develop what these facts imply for prediction-aligned feature selection and for tabular models that learn to use causal structure.

Recent Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have demonstrated state-of-the-art predictive performance, often surpassing Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees (GBDTs). However, the trustworthiness of these models, particularly their uncertainty quantification, has been largely overlooked. We investigate this gap through an extensive study comparing TFMs, GBDTs, and classical baselines on the 112 datasets of the TALENT benchmark. Our results reveal a performance-uncertainty trade-off: although TFMs achieve the highest predictive performance, measured by AUC, they exhibit lower conditional coverage under conformal prediction, measured by SSCS, compared to GBDTs. Complementary experiments on synthetic datasets further characterize the regimes in which this effect intensifies. We conclude that while TFMs advance predictive frontiers, achieving well-calibrated uncertainty remains a major open challenge for their reliable adoption. Code is available at: https://github.com/jose-melo/high-performance-low-reliability

With the rise of tabular foundation models alongside traditional models still performing well on many tasks, choosing the right model for a tabular dataset remains difficult. We investigate whether dataset meta-features can explain performance gaps between model families on tabular prediction tasks. Using the TabArena benchmark results, we analyze dataset-level performance gaps and relate them to model-agnostic meta-features. After strict statistical tests with false discovery control, we find that (1) for neural network vs. tree gaps, no meta-feature survives false discovery control, (2) for non-foundation vs. foundation model gaps, one association is robust but does not generalize when tested in leave-one-dataset-out prediction, and (3) for TabICLv2 vs. TabPFN-2.6, one robust association also improves held-out prediction. Furthermore, we conduct a leave-one-dataset-out analysis and find that meta-feature predictors fail to improve meaningfully over a simple baseline. Overall, our results show the heterogeneity of tabular datasets and that global meta-feature approaches are not robust enough to offer explanations on the 51 TabArena datasets.

Tree ensembles are machine learning models with strong predictive performance and interpretability, and remain widely used for tabular data. Standard pruning methods for tree ensembles typically optimize an accuracy-compression trade-off and may change a subset of predictions, potentially compromising decision consistency. Faithful pruning methods address this issue by preserving prediction equivalence over the entire input space, but this requirement leads to lower compression ratios. We propose PINE, a pruning method that provides strong guarantees within an in-distribution region. PINE preserves prediction equivalence within this region and controls the region size using a single parameter $α$ via conformal calibration. Experiments on 12 public tabular datasets show that PINE improves the compression ratio by up to 30% while preserving predictions at a comparable level to existing faithful pruning methods.

Despite the wide use of explainability techniques to attempt to understand the behavior of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the generated explanations may not always be reliable. An explanation can appear plausible to humans but fail to capture the internal reasoning of a model, particularly when dealing with complex tabular data. This paper studies the trustworthiness of local explainability techniques when applied to complex tabular classification tasks, considering evaluated metrics for three main properties: faithfulness to the model's predictions, robustness to input data variations, and complexity of the explanation itself. A benchmark was performed for Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), Kernel SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and Feature Ablation techniques, across 32 datasets and different types of machine learning models. Model performance ranges were analyzed to identify two groups: consensus-correct, which are samples that all models predicted correctly, and consensus-wrong, samples that all models predicted incorrectly. The obtained results demonstrate that that the explanations are not always correlated with a model's predictive performance. Instead, dataset complexity and feature distributions seem to be the main factors affecting explanation quality and reliability.

Charts effectively convey quantitative information, but the underlying data are often locked in image form, hindering reuse and analysis. Manually digitizing charts is time-consuming and error-prone, motivating automatic chart-to-table extraction. Recent approaches use specialized vision-language models (VLMs), yet performance still lags on charts with many datapoints or substantial stylistic variation. We propose a VLM self-ensembling method that repeatedly samples multiple tabular outputs from the same VLM for a fixed chart image and aggregates them at the level of individual table cells. We align candidate tables and take per-cell medians over numerical values to produce a more accurate consensus table. Our method also includes convergence detection to stop sampling once the aggregated table stabilizes, and uncertainty estimation based on dispersion across samples to help users assess extraction reliability. Because existing chart extraction benchmarks contain relatively simple plots with limited room for improvement, we introduce WB-ChartExtract, a new benchmark built from World Bank data with more complex and stylistically diverse charts; on average, its charts contain 7 times more datapoints than those in the ChartQA benchmark. Across both ChartQA and WB-ChartExtract, our approach improves extraction accuracy over single-pass VLM outputs, yielding up to 23% relative improvement on WB-ChartExtract after ensembling. More broadly, our method helps unlock tabular data previously siloed in chart images, enabling downstream analysis and reuse.

Selecting which instances to label is a key challenge in low-label tabular learning. For recent Tabular Foundation Models such as TabPFN, context selection directly determines predictive performance. Supervised oracle experiments show that carefully chosen labeled context sets can strongly outperform random selection under the same labeling budget. However, the cold-start setting, where instances must be selected before any labels are available, has received little attention in the TFM literature. This problem is fundamentally geometric. In vision and language, foundation models induce embedding spaces where simple geometric selection methods are effective. In contrast, tabular instance selection has so far been performed predominantly in the original tabular space, which lacks a natural metric; heterogeneous types, mixed scales, and nonlinear interactions make raw-space distances unreliable for context construction, and original-space selection falls below random on the majority of datasets as the budget grows. We propose LUCoS (Latent Unsupervised Context Selection), which replaces raw-feature geometry with the latent geometry induced by embeddings from an unsupervised Prior-Fitted Network (PFN) and selects representative medoids as context. Evaluated on 67 OpenML-CC18 datasets across six low-label budgets, LUCoS ranks first under mean AUC, ACC, and F1, with conclusions stable across metrics and dataset-level robustness checks. A gain decomposition reveals a simple mechanism: at the smallest budgets, the main benefit comes from enforcing coverage; as the budget increases, the decisive factor becomes the representation space in which coverage is measured. LUCoS mitigates failures of original feature space selection, showing that reliable unsupervised context selection depends less on selector sophistication than on defining representativeness in a meaningful representation geometry.

Extending discrete-time causal Prior-data Fitted Networks for time series to continuous time invites writing the mechanism as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) -- but if the SDE is integrated \emph{once per observation gap}, the trajectory law depends on when it is observed, and the prior remains a discrete-time Markov model in SDE clothing. We propose a precise continuity criterion -- trajectory-law invariance to the observation schedule -- together with a three-tier taxonomy (discrete; naive observation-grid integration; fine-grid integration with decoupled observation) and a construction realising the top tier on a random DAG with OU or small-MLP nonlinear drifts, irregular observation schedules, and hard / soft / time-varying interventions. A $2 \times 2$ encoder $\times$ integrator ablation, run independently on a linear and a nonlinear prior, finds fine-grid integration beats naive on 8/8 cells (sign-consistency $p < 1/256$) with the gap growing as the eval grid refines; the encoder axis is null with fine integration but time-aware-leading with naive. We release the prior and a preliminary zero-shot protocol on pharmacokinetic and physical-system data.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently emerged as a powerful approach for Bayesian prediction tasks, approximating the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) through in-context learning. Despite their strong empirical performance and ability to go beyond point predictions, theoretical understandings of the algorithmic capability of transformers to learn distributions in context are still lacking. Focusing on Gaussian process regression problems, we show by construction that transformers can implement a gradient descent algorithm targeting the posterior predictive mean and variance, followed by nonlinear mappings that yield binned probabilities of PPD. We study the error bounds of the approximated PPD in terms of attention depth and bin resolution. Based on these results, we further demonstrate the key role of normalization and the choice of attention depth in enabling the extrapolation abilities of transformers beyond the pretraining sample size range. We conduct simulations that corroborate our findings, providing insight into the expressivity of PFNs targeting PPDs and how architectural choices may influence generalization capabilities.

Childhood anemia affects around 40% of children aged 6-59 months globally and arises from heterogeneous factors, limiting model generalizability. We evaluate a transformer-based tabular foundation model against classical supervised methods under cross-country and data-scarce settings. We used DHS data from 16 countries across Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caucasus, and the Middle East (n=68,856). We compared Logistic Regression, XGBoost, LightGBM, and TabPFN v2.6. Performance was assessed using AUC-ROC, Brier score, and ECE. Generalization was evaluated using leave-one-country-out (LOCO), reverse-LOCO, and few-shot settings. Subgroup analyses included sex, age, residence, maternal education, and wealth. Feature importance was estimated using SHAP. TabPFN outperformed classical models in low-data regimes (<200 samples), showing higher discrimination and better calibration. Across countries, it achieved the lowest Brier score (0.042) and ECE (0.203). Under full-data settings, AUC-ROC ranged from 0.59-0.76 with small between-model differences ($\leq 0.05$). LOCO performance was stable (0.58-0.69), driven by country context. Reverse-LOCO showed asymmetric transferability. Subgroup performance was consistent with no systematic demographic bias. SHAP identified child age, altitude, and height-for-age z-score as dominant predictors, followed by wealth and maternal education. Performance in childhood anemia prediction is driven more by population variation than model choice. TabPFN provides advantages in low-resource settings through improved discrimination and calibration, highlighting foundation models as promising tools for data-scarce global health prediction.

Tabular foundation models achieve strong accuracy on choice prediction tasks, but their predictions often violate the economic logic those tasks require: raising a price sometimes increases predicted demand, and implied willingness-to-pay estimates are frequently negative or implausible. We propose a two-stage adapter that embeds foundation model predictions within a utility-maximization framework. In the first stage, we estimate a standard choice model whose parameters are constrained to obey economic theory. In the second stage, we freeze those parameters and train a correction term that incorporates the foundation model's predictions as additional information. The result is a model that inherits the foundation model's accuracy gains while guaranteeing monotonic price-demand relationships under policy perturbation and producing analytically computable trade-off measures. On two transportation datasets, the adapter recovers up to 13 percentage points of accuracy over a standard logit model while maintaining perfect economic consistency, something neither the raw foundation models nor conventional distillation achieve.

Data consistency between unstructured clinical notes and structured tables in Electronic Health Records (EHRs) is essential for patient safety and clinical decision-making. However, existing work on note-table consistency verification mainly relies on surface-level matching of numeric values or simple events. Such approaches fail to capture the reasoning underlying real-world EHR documentation, including clinical interpretation, event relations, and temporal changes. To address this gap, we introduce EHR-ReasonCon, a reasoning-intensive benchmark for note-table consistency verification. Built on MIMIC-III with expert-guided annotations, it comprises 8,048 entities derived from clinical notes and provides high-quality ground-truth labels. The annotation protocol is supported by specialized table-exploration tools to ensure systematic evidence retrieval and reliable consistency assessment. We also propose EHR-Inspector, an LLM-based framework that segments notes, extracts anchor entities and temporal references, and uses table-exploration tools to verify consistency against structured tables. Evaluated using expert-validated LLM-as-a-judge metrics under harsh and lenient criteria, EHR-Inspector achieves state-of-the-art performance across multiple model backbones. Analyses further demonstrate the effectiveness of its components and highlight differences from human verification.

While multimodal data integrating diverse imaging and clinical tabular records is crucial for accurate medical diagnosis, the arbitrary absence of specific modalities is prevalent in clinical practice, severely degrading the performance of multimodal models. Existing methods either discard missing modalities, leading to information loss, or struggle to synthesize them without capturing complex inter-modal dependencies. To address these limitations, we propose a novel Context-driven Missing-Modality Learning (CMML) framework, which sequentially performs modality synthesis and semantic alignment to achieve robust diagnosis under arbitrary missing conditions. Specifically, we design a Cascade Residual Transformer-based Autoencoder (CRTA) that leverages learnable context tokens acting as dataset-level semantic prior to capture inter-modal dependencies and synthesize key missing representations. These representations are further enriched by modality-specific memory banks. To resolve the discrepancy between original available and synthesized representations, we transform the learned context tokens into instance-adaptive semantic references by infusing multimodal representations from the CRTA's outputs. This reference guides the alignment of heterogeneous modality representations into a unified space, where class-aware contrastive refinement is finally applied to explore discriminative diagnostic cues. Extensive evaluations on skin lesion (Derm7pt), ocular disease (ODIR), and meningioma (MEN) datasets demonstrate that CMML significantly outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods, yielding AVG AUC improvements of 1.26%, 0.97%, and 1.32%, respectively.

Ontologies represent the conceptual knowledge of a domain. At the core of an ontology is the taxonomy of concepts and subconcepts that represent specific entities, which can be complex to build. In many cases, information is available in the form of records describing the characteristics of relevant entities, i.e., tabular data. Identifying patterns and similarities in such data can serve as a basis for identifying concepts and organizing them. However, doing so manually can be challenging, and purely automatic approaches, such as agglomerative clustering or relying on a large language model to analyze the data, can leave the user with overwhelming results and little control. In this paper, we describe a tool that enables the progressive and interactive construction of a taxonomy of concepts by identifying clusters as well as their intentional definitions. To do so, we rely on weighted self-organizing maps as a clustering method because they enable the creation of an arbitrary number of clusters that are distinct with respect to the distributions of values of specific characteristics of the clustered entities. We show that, by integrating this mechanism and others for rapidly creating concepts that group together instances from tabular data, this tool represents a middle ground between purely manual analysis and automatic methods for building ontological taxonomies.

Gradient-boosted trees achieve strong performance on tabular data, yet often leave a long tail of poorly predicted instances. We introduce a Trajectory-based Difficulty Score (TDS), an instance-level difficulty estimator for boosted ensembles derived from per-tree cumulative prediction trajectories. For each instance, we compute interpretable trajectory descriptors (e.g., variance, oscillation peaks, sign switches, and tail stability) and train a lightweight regression model to predict held-out loss. An empirical CDF calibrates the resulting signal into a score in $[0,1]$ that supports ranking hard cases. Across diverse tabular benchmarks and ensemble sizes, TDS exhibits strong rank correlation with error and outperforms established instance-hardness and uncertainty baselines on classification, while remaining competitive on regression. We then show how a single difficulty signal improves multiple data mining workflows: difficulty-driven active learning for label-efficient training, difficulty-thresholded selective prediction for improved risk-coverage trade-offs, and TDS-stratified (Mondrian) conformal prediction for more uniform conditional coverage. Finally, clustering high-TDS instances using SHAP attributions reveals coherent failure modes characterized by compact feature-value ranges, supporting error analysis and targeted data acquisition.

Supervised classification on tabular data remains a central machine learning task, but its dependence on large labeled datasets limits its applicability in data-scarce settings. Few-shot methods such as TabPFN achieve strong performance through large-scale synthetic pretraining, yet still require labeled context examples. Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a more flexible alternative through zero- and few-shot in-context learning from task descriptions, but their behavior on tabular data remains inconsistent. We introduce LLMTabBench, a benchmark for evaluating LLMs on tabular classification under low-data conditions. The benchmark studies how LLM prior knowledge interacts with task descriptions and few-shot examples, and how performance changes with increasing data complexity across real-world and controlled synthetic datasets. We find that LLMs can be highly competitive in zero-shot settings, sometimes outperforming models given few-shot examples. However, additional examples may conflict with prior knowledge, thereby degrading performance. We also observe a complexity threshold at which LLM performance declines and few-shot examples become less useful. These results clarify key limits of in-context learning for tabular data and inform the deployment of LLMs in low-data regimes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been widely adopted in conversational applications. However, their reliance on parametric knowledge limits reliability in real-world scenarios that require dynamic or domain-specific information. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) addresses this limitation by incorporating external knowledge during generation, but existing text-based and graph-based RAG methods often struggle with noisy or irrelevant contexts. In this work, we propose Structure-aware Retrieval Augmented Generation (SA-RAG), which uses tables as an intermediate structured representation to provide a compact and controllable interface that reduces noise while preserving essential information. We introduce a quality-aware table metadata generation framework that models metadata normalization and effectiveness, improving metadata quality and downstream performance. Furthermore, we explore both training-free and training-based table generation methods. Generation validation and direct preference optimization further improve table quality while maintaining semantic and structural consistency. Experiments on two noisy real-world datasets show that SA-RAG significantly outperforms existing RAG baselines. Our code is publicly available at a public repository.

Production deep learning systems across enterprise domains operate under constraints that academic benchmarks routinely obscure: labeled data is expensive, inference budgets are tight, and models that cannot explain their behavior are difficult to trust and maintain. We present ChainzRule (CR), a neural architecture replacing typical activations with learnable polynomial layers governed by Differential Regularization (DREG), a layer-wise Jacobian penalty computed analytically during the forward pass at standard inference cost. The core claim is that bounding intermediate derivatives forces the network toward low-frequency, structurally stable representations, simultaneously reducing dependence on labeled data volume, improving robustness to distribution shift, and providing a measurable, gradient-based handle on model behavior. Evaluated across five domains, CR achieves $85.71\% \pm 2.01\%$ on Pima Diabetes (statistically superior to SVM and XGBoost), $46.20\% \pm 0.37\%$ on SST-5 sentiment classification with a frozen encoder (superior to RNTN using approximately 5% of its training data), $55.79\%$ on SST-5 with a fine-tuned BERT backbone (versus BERT-base linear head at $54.9\%$), $70.17\%$ on Yelp Full ordinal regression with 3.2M parameters versus a 10-model average of $66.35\%$, and $+2.32\%$ mean corruption accuracy on CIFAR-10-C. All results with reported $p$-values fall below the $α= 0.05$ threshold after Bonferroni correction. CR maintains a gradient tail ratio $τ$ (p99/mean) of $1.01$--$1.02$ against $1.07$--$1.09$ for all typical activation function baselines across every data fraction, a structural invariant we propose as the mechanistic driver of sample efficiency and a deployment-time proxy for model reliability.

Learning high-quality oblique decision trees remains a significant challenge due to the discrete and non-convex nature of split optimization. We present the Hinge Regression Tree (HRT) framework, which reframes each oblique split as a nonlinear least-squares problem over two linear predictors whose max/min envelope induces ReLU-like representation capacity. We show that the resulting node-level optimization can be interpreted as a damped Newton method, and we establish the monotonic decrease of the node objective for its backtracking line-search variant. We establish, theoretically, that HRT is a universal approximator with an explicit $O(δ^2)$ approximation rate. Building upon this base learner, we propose HRT-Boost, a mathematically synergistic ensemble extension that couples node-level Newton updates with stage-wise functional gradient descent. We show that this ensemble construction admits a stage-wise empirical risk reduction guarantee under the squared loss. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that HRT is highly competitive with established single-tree baselines, and HRT-Boost compares favorably with strong ensemble baselines and often yields substantially more compact models. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Hongyi-Li-sz/HRT-Boost.

Random forests are widely used in fields involving sensitive tabular data, but existing approaches to enforcing differential privacy (DP) typically degrade performance to the point of impracticality. In this paper, we introduce Lumberjack, a differentially private random forest algorithm that achieves substantially higher utility by constructing large random decision trees and then applying aggressive, privacy-preserving pruning to retain only sufficiently populated nodes. A key component of our approach is a novel $(\varepsilon,δ)$-DP heavy hitter detection algorithm for hierarchical data, whose error is $O_{\varepsilon,δ}(\sqrt{\log h})$ for trees of height $h$ and may be of independent interest. This favorable scaling enables the use of significantly deeper trees than in prior work, leading to improved expressiveness under privacy constraints. Our empirical evaluation on benchmark datasets shows that Lumberjack consistently outperforms prior DP random forest methods, establishing a new state of the art. In particular, our approach yields substantial improvements in the privacy-utility trade-off for practical privacy budgets. Our findings suggest that carefully designed DP random forests can close much of the utility gap, highlighting a promising and underexplored direction for future research.

A persistent challenge in machine learning for scientific applications is jointly achieving prediction and understanding. Statistical models excel on structured data but operate as black boxes, while existing interpretability methods are largely inspective: they answer "which features matter?" but do not articulate how features interact or refine explanations iteratively alongside human understanding. Asking an LLM to predict the target directly forces it to search the entire output space; we instead anchor predictions with a base model and ask the LLM the narrower question of what that model is missing. We introduce Multi-Agent Residual In-Context Learning (MARICL), an agentic framework in which LLM agents analyze where a base-model fails, hypothesize missing structure from high-residual examples provided in context, and produce explicit correction terms refined through multi-turn textual gradient optimization. Across nine benchmarks spanning scientific, biomedical, socioeconomic, and synthetic settings, MARICL improves consistently over its base model on all datasets. To test whether these corrections reflect real structure or batch-specific noise, we freeze formulas learned on one experimental batch of the Cell-Free Protein dataset and apply them (with no retraining and no further LLM calls) to held-out batches. Within the same reagent protocol, the frozen formulas improve predictions in over 92% of cases; across a different protocol, they fail systematically. The success boundary aligns with the biochemistry, not the batch count; direct evidence of mechanistic generalization.

Modelling claim frequency and severity for non-life insurance pricing predominantly relies on generalised linear models, with gradient-boosted machines as the leading machine learning alternative. Tabular foundation models (TFMs) present a fundamentally different inference paradigm. By pre-training on large collections of synthetic datasets, TFMs enable inference on new data through in-context learning, without any dataset-specific fitting or hyperparameter tuning. This paper presents a first empirical evaluation of TabPFN for motor insurance pricing, benchmarking it against GLM and XGBoost on two publicly available MTPL datasets. Our results show that TabPFN does not consistently outperform established baselines, exhibits substantially longer inference times, and is sensitive to the size of the in-context training set. While tabular foundation models represent a promising direction, particularly in data-scarce settings, their current performance does not offer a viable replacement for established actuarial methods.

In-context learning for tabular data sets strong predictive standards in observational settings; it however primarily relies on correlational structure, which becomes unreliable under distribution shift or intervention. While established methods to discover causal structure exist, they are often focused on structure identifiability and decoupled from the predictive architectures that could benefit from them. To bridge these perspectives, we study how to simultaneously infer and enforce causal structure in the form of topological variable orderings into tabular prediction. Unlike standard architectures, our model TabOrder uses causal order-constrained attention, basing predictions only on features that precede a target under a learned causal order. Similar to causal discovery methods, TabOrder learns the optimal variable ordering in an unsupervised manner through a likelihood-based objective. We justify this choice under standard functional model classes and also study how sample missingness, a common challenge in tabular data, interacts with causal direction identification. Empirically, we confirm that TabOrder recovers accurate variable orderings while addressing prediction and imputation tasks, as well as gives insight into real-world biological data under intervention.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved exceptional performance on tabular classification tasks. However, like other classifiers, their performance can suffer under the effect of class imbalance, resulting in poor performance for rare classes. Several techniques exist which attempt to mitigate the deleterious effect of class imbalance on classification performance, but the in-context learning (ICL) dynamic of PFNs means that loss-based strategies are impossible, and other techniques are unproven. We have adapted several classical techniques addressing class imbalance and analyzed their performance on PFN classification. We observe that thresholding performs exceptionally well because of the calibration characteristics of PFNs, and downsampling performs comparably because of PFNs exceptional limited-data performance, with the additional benefit of reduced computation cost for inference.

Relational prediction tasks are fundamental in many real-world applications, where data are naturally stored in relational databases (RDBs). Relational Deep Learning (RDL) addresses this problem by modeling RDBs as graphs and applying graph neural networks (GNNs) for end-to-end learning. However, the full-resolution property is commonly adopted as a design principle in graph construction for RDBs to preserve relational semantics, which leads most existing methods to rely on fixed graph structures. In this paper, we propose FROG, a Full-Resolution and Optimizable Graph Structure Learning} framework for RDL that formulates relational structure learning as a learnable table role modeling problem, allowing tables to contribute as nodes and edges in message passing. We further design role-driven message passing mechanisms to capture relational semantics, enabling joint optimization of graph structure and GNN representations. To ensure semantic consistency, we introduce functional dependency constraints that regularize representations across table and entity levels. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches and reveal how table roles impact downstream tasks, offering new insights into graph construction for RDL

Tabular foundation models with different architectures converge in accuracy across a range of classification and regression tasks. This raises questions a leaderboard cannot answer: (i) whether the models execute the same in-context algorithm, (ii) where row, column, and class-permutation invariances originate, and (iii) how robust they are under perturbations engineered against the inferred mechanism. We characterize all three. The model families realize qualitatively distinct similarity-based readouts: from an attention-weighted vote over context labels to a class-conditional mean readout, each confirmed by causal intervention. We find that the representation collapse highlighted in prior work is not a practical concern for them. Each model's permutation invariances trace to specific positional parameters whose removal preserves accuracy and makes approximate invariance exact. Perturbations engineered against each readout reproduce predicted failure modes; hub and rank attacks isolate them from refit baselines. Together these results give a mechanistic account of contemporary tabular foundation models and identify which inductive biases govern both their accuracy and characteristic failures.

Near-infrared spectroscopy is increasingly used as a rapid, non-destructive chemical sensing technology for the analysis of food, pharmaceutical, biological, and environmental samples. However, the practical deployment of NIR sensors still depends on calibration models able to handle high-dimensional, collinear spectra, limited sample sizes, preprocessing dependence, spectral outliers, and extrapolation beyond the calibration domain. Here, we evaluate whether tabular foundation models can provide a new calibration strategy for NIR chemical sensing. We benchmark TabPFN on 66 NIR datasets covering 54 regression and 12 classification tasks, and compare direct inference on raw spectra with preprocessing-optimized inference against PLS/PLS-DA, Ridge, Catboost, and one-dimensional convolutional neural networks. The study uses a unified validation framework in which preprocessing and model selection are performed exclusively on calibration data before external test evaluation. In regression, preprocessing-optimized TabPFN achieves the best overall average rank and significantly outperforms PLS, CatBoost, TabPFN on raw spectra, and CNN-1D, while remaining statistically comparable to Ridge. In classification, TabPFN applied directly to raw spectra provides the best average rank, with performance close to the optimized variant. Robustness analyses show that TabPFN provides strong average predictive performance but that its advantage decreases on spectral outliers and extrapolated samples, where classical chemometric models remain competitive. These results suggest that tabular foundation models can complement established chemometric workflows for NIR chemical sensing, especially in small- to medium-sized calibration settings, while highlighting the need for spectroscopy-specific priors and uncertainty-aware deployment strategies.

We introduce CoMET, \textit{\textbf{C}omposing \textbf{M}odality \textbf{E}ncoders with \textbf{T}abular foundation models}, a simple yet highly competitive method for multimodal classification: pass each modality through a frozen pre-trained backbone, compress the resulting embeddings with PCA, and concatenate as input into a Tabular Foundation Model (TFM) for prediction. We show that PCA alone suffices to act as an adaptor yielding strong, robust performance across modalities. When the \texttt{CLS} tokens of the foundation model align poorly with downstream tasks, we propose \textbf{PALPooling}, a lightweight adaptive token pooler that consistently improves representation quality. By composing strong frozen representation learning backbones with TFMs, our approach achieves state-of-the-art results across diverse multimodal benchmarks without any training. On hierarchical tasks with large fine-grained class spaces, our approach enables fast and scalable classification, handling datasets with over 500,000 samples and 2,000 classes without any fine-tuning. Overall, our results show that the composition of foundation models is a simple, yet powerful, out-of-the-box solution for multimodal learning, challenging the necessity of complex, end-to-end training pipelines for new problems.

Advanced fibrosis is a major determinant of liver-related morbidity in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). FIB-4 is widely used as a first-line non-invasive test, but its fixed formula may underuse diagnostic information contained in age, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, and platelet count. We evaluated whether machine-learning-enhanced non-invasive testing (MLE-NIT) can improve advanced fibrosis detection while preserving this FIB-4 variable space. We used three biopsy-confirmed MASLD cohorts from China, Malaysia, and India (n=784). The Chinese cohort was split into 486 training and 54 internal validation/tuning patients; final performance was reported only on the Malaysian and Indian external cohorts. Models used five variables: age, FIB-4, aspartate aminotransferase, platelet count, and alanine aminotransferase. We compared FIB-4 with a shallow-deep neural network (s-DNN), TabPFN, and gpt-4o-2024-08-06. FIB-4 achieved external ROC-AUCs of 0.75 and 0.60 in Malaysia and India, respectively. TabPFN achieved 0.69 and 0.66, fine-tuned GPT-4o achieved 0.75 and 0.63, and the s-DNN achieved 0.77 and 0.67, respectively. The s-DNN contained only 354 trainable parameters, compared with 7,244,554 for TabPFN, yet provided a more balanced external operating profile. Calibration showed s-DNN Brier scores of 0.18 and 0.22, and permutation importance identified AST and FIB-4 as dominant variables. Compact non-linear MLE-NITs may enhance FIB-4-based fibrosis assessment without increasing clinical data requirements.

LLM-curated tables can appear source-grounded while containing unsupported rows: the curator may recall entries from parametric memory and retroactively attach page-level citations that are not the actual source. We study this hazard in Seed2Frontier discovery: the task of finding complement Wikipedia pages from a seed page to assemble a structured table. Stage-Audit addresses it with disjoint curator-auditor write rights, a row-level source-citation gate, and a 12-check audit taxonomy over keys, schema, source roles, cardinality, and scope. On a curated 51-instance Seed2Frontier evaluation set spanning 15 top-level domains, Stage-Audit improves source-frontier precision over a vanilla LLM curator from 0.356 to 0.505 (+42% relative) and F1 from 0.334 to 0.451 (+35%), while maintaining explicit per-row source traceability. The vanilla-LLM-vs-Stage-Audit comparison isolates the policy contribution rather than LLM-based discovery in general.

Current personalization methods for generative vision models typically encode new concepts through continuous adapters or weight updates, yet provide limited control over whether and when a concept should be retrieved. In this work, we introduce Tiny-Engram, a compact trigger-indexed concept table that gives visual memories an explicit lexical address and activation boundary inside frozen image and video generators. Tiny-Engram parameterizes each concept as a small set of memory entries indexed by registered n-gram matches, which modulate text-encoder hidden states only within the matched trigger region. Outside this lexical support, the conditioning pathway is identical to that of the frozen base model. Across both single-encoder latent diffusion and multi-encoder diffusion-transformer backbones, this formulation binds a rare trigger phrase to a target identity while preserving compositional control from the surrounding prompt. We further evaluate the same table-based memory in a text-conditioned video generation setting, where the trigger path reliably alters the generated subject but fine-grained identity persistence across held-out video prompts remains limited. Taken together, these results suggest that small, explicitly addressed concept tables are a practical route to modular visual personalization, with strongest evidence in image generation. For video diffusion, the remaining gap points to a broader requirement: temporally stable identity likely depends on tighter coupling between text-side memory and the evolving visual state, motivating future work on memory injection beyond the text-conditioning interface.

Tabular foundation models based on pretrained prior-data fitted networks~(PFNs) have shown strong generalization on diverse tabular tasks, but they are typically designed for \emph{non-strategic} settings where data distributions are independent of deployed classifiers. In many real-world decision scenarios, however, individuals may strategically modify their features after deployment to obtain favorable outcomes, inducing a post-deployment distribution shift. This paper studies whether PFN-style tabular foundation models can generalize to such \emph{strategic} tabular data. We show that strategic manipulation creates a mismatch between the non-strategic prior learned during pretraining and the post-manipulation strategic prior, which leads to systematic prediction bias. To address this issue, we propose \textbf{Strategic Prior-data Fitted Network}~\textit{(SPN)}, an inference-time strategy-aware framework that adapts tabular foundation models to strategic environments without retraining. SPN constructs strategic in-context examples to approximate post-manipulation inputs and aligns PFN predictions with the induced strategic distribution. Experiments on real-world and synthetic tabular datasets show that SPN consistently improves robustness and predictive performance under strategic manipulation compared with both tabular foundation models and classical tabular methods.

We propose Tabular Q-Learning (TabQL), a reinforcement learning framework that replaces the conventional parametric Q-network in Deep Q-Learning (DQN) with a tabular foundation model endowed with in-context learning capabilities. The key idea is to represent Q-values through a sequence-to-sequence foundation model operating over a tabularized representation of state-action-Q-value tuples, enabling rapid adaptation from limited online interaction by conditioning on recent experience. TabQL departs from classical DQN by leveraging (i) zero- or few-shot Q-value inference via in-context updates, and (ii) a warm-up phase using standard DQN to bootstrap high-quality context. Particularly, to enhance the context quality, new transitions are generated by executing actions output by TabQL with predicted Q values from DQN. We formalize TabQL, analyze its convergence and sample complexity under mild assumptions, and show that TabQL interpolates between vanilla Q-learning and DQN with in-context learning. Our analysis demonstrates that TabQL achieves improved efficiency compared to DQN by amortizing Bellman updates through in-context learning. Extensive numerical experiments with several benchmarks showcase the effectiveness and efficacy of the proposed TabQL.

What determines the quality of a tabular foundation model? Unlike language or vision, tabular foundation models acquire their inductive biases almost entirely from synthetic pretraining distributions, yet the design of these distributions remains poorly understood. Standard synthetic priors are too well-behaved: they omit the irregularities and failure modes that determine deployment robustness. We introduce O'Prior, a compositional realism prior built around four coupled components: a hierarchical SCM meta-generator spanning diverse functional families; a modular realism engine covering heterogeneous marginals, missingness, and target transforms; an explicit stress module injecting confounding and support-query mismatch; and a curriculum-governed, leakage-safe generation protocol. To isolate prior design as the scientific variable, we hold architecture, optimizer, and compute budget fixed and vary only the synthetic task distribution. O'Prior yields consistent and substantial improvements in downstream accuracy and robustness across real tabular benchmarks, with gains concentrated in regimes characterized by distributional irregularities. Ablations confirm that mechanism diversity, realism composition, and shift-aware stress each contribute independently, their effects are not interchangeable. These results establish synthetic prior construction as a first-order and largely overlooked determinant of tabular foundation model quality

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) achieve strong performance on health datasets, but their inference cost and infrastructure requirements limit practical use. We study whether their predictive behavior can be transferred to lightweight tabular models through knowledge distillation. Since in-context TFMs condition on the training set at inference time, naive distillation can introduce context leakage; we address this with stratified out-of-fold teacher labeling. Across $19$ healthcare datasets, $6$ TFM teachers, $4$ student families, and several multi-teacher ensembles, we find that distilled students retain at least $90\%$ of teacher AUC, outperforming teachers in some cases, while running at least $26\times$ faster on CPU and preserving calibration and fairness critical for health applications. Moreover, multi-teacher averaging does not consistently improve over the best single teacher. Leakage-aware distillation is thus a viable route for bringing TFM-quality predictions into inference-constrained health settings.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) now match or beat tuned gradient-boosted trees on a growing fraction of tabular tasks, but no single TFM wins on every dataset. Ensembling is the go to fix here, and it works less well than expected. Six modern TFMs form a near-redundant pool: their mean pairwise Q-statistic is $0.961$, close enough to $1$ that any convex combination is bounded above. We benchmark six ensemble strategies over six TFMs on 153 OpenML classification tasks. The best ensemble, two-level cascade stacking, buys $+0.18\%$ accuracy over the strongest single TFM at $253\times$ the compute. A Friedman and Nemenyi analysis places three ensembles and the best base TFM in a single equivalence group; three other ensembles are significantly \emph{worse} than the best base. Stacking with a logistic-regression meta-learner is the most striking case: competitive accuracy and ROC-AUC, the worst log-loss rank among the ensembles. The meta-learner improves accuracy by sharpening class boundaries, which destroys calibration. We recommend greedy selection as the practical default.

A fraud scorer needs to answer in under 2 ms. The best tabular foundation models (TFMs) take 151-1,275 ms on GPU. We close this gap by distilling the TFM offline into an XGBoost or CatBoost student that runs natively on CPU. The central obstacle is specific to in-context learning (ICL) teachers: they leak labels when scoring their own training set, so the soft targets collapse to near-one-hot vectors with no inter-class structure left to distill. Stratified out-of-fold (OOF) teacher labeling prevents this. Across 153 classification datasets drawn from TALENT, OpenML-CC18, TabZilla, and TabArena, distilling TabICLv2 into XGBoost gives 0.882 macro-mean AUC (96.5% of teacher AUC) at 1.9 ms on CPU, a 38x to 860x speedup across teacher-student pairs with a statistically significant edge over a tuned CatBoost baseline (Wilcoxon p = 0.0008; 51% win rate). Four further findings: teacher rank transfers exactly to student rank; gains concentrate on low-dimensional data (< 21 features: +0.011 over CatBoost vs. >21 features: +0.001); multi-teacher averaging helps MLP students (+0.006, p = 0.003) but adds less than 0.001 for tree students; and on high-dimensional tasks where the teacher itself trails CatBoost, distillation makes things worse rather than better. The full pipeline is open-sourced as part of the TabTune library.

Credit default prediction is a tabular learning problem with severe class imbalance, heterogeneous features, and tight latency budgets. Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) approach this problem through in-context learning, which makes their predictions sensitive to how the context window is built. We benchmark four classical models and five TFMs on the Home Credit and Lending Club datasets, varying the context-construction strategy (seven options) and the context size (1K to 50K). On both datasets, the choice of context strategy explains more variance in AUC-ROC than the choice of TFM family: balanced and hybrid sampling add 3 to 4 AUC points over uniform sampling, and the gap exceeds the spread between TFMs. With a balanced context of 5K to 10K examples, the strongest TFMs reach the AUC of classical baselines trained on the full data, while also recovering meaningful default-class recall that default-threshold GBDTs do not. We frame this as evidence that context construction, rather than architecture choice, is the primary deployment lever for TFMs in imbalanced credit-risk settings.

We present TabH2O, a foundation model for tabular data that performs classification and regression in a single forward pass via in-context learning. TabH2O builds on the TabICL architecture with several key modifications: (1) unified training, a single model handles both classification and regression via a dual-head architecture, eliminating the need for separate models and reducing total pretraining cost; (2) single-stage pretraining, training stability improvements (bounded scalable softmax, inter-stage normalization, learnable residual scaling, logit soft-capping) eliminate the need for multi-stage curriculum learning, enabling training with full-length sequences from the start; and (3) noise-aware pretraining, synthetic datasets include explicit noise dimensions to teach the model robustness to irrelevant features. We evaluate TabH2O v1 (29.2M parameters) on the TALENT benchmark (300 datasets), where it achieves an average rank of 2.55 out of 6 evaluated methods, outperforming tuned CatBoost (4.07), H2O AutoML (4.18), and LightGBM (5.08), competitive with TabPFN v2.6 (2.74), and behind TabICL v2 (2.12), while placing in the top-3 on 81% of the testing datasets across classification and regression tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promising results on NLP tasks, however, their performance on tabular data still needs research attention, because Table Question-Answering (TQA) requires precise cell retrieval and multi-step structured reasoning. Existing work improves TQA either by fine-tuning or training LLMs on task-specific tabular data, but often lacks verifiable control over how the model navigates tables and derives answers. In this work, we propose a training-free TQA approach with two structured prompting frameworks: TableGrid Navigation (TGN), which iteratively navigates rows and columns via a three-module loop to locate evidence and refine answers, and Progressive Inference Prompting (PIP), which enforces columns identification for explicit progressive row selection constraint according to the query. We evaluate 17 LLMs against 6 baselines on TableBench and FeTaQa dataset. On TableBench, TGN improves over the strongest baseline by 3.8 points, and on FeTaQa, PIP achieves SOTA performance over ReAct and Chain-of-Thought. Beyond inference-time gains, PIP and TGN can also serve as supervision templates to fine-tune small models, narrowing the performance gap to much larger architectures in resource-constrained settings, offering versatile and cost-efficient solution for TQA.

The rapid growth of tabular datasets in data lakes, data spaces, and open data portals makes effective dataset search essential for reuse and analysis. Existing search systems rely mainly on metadata, which is often incomplete or low quality, especially for tables whose meaning depends on both schema and cell values. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) enable richer, content-based representations of tables. However, prior LLM-based retrieval methods have focused on Table Question Answering, where the goal is to select a single table to answer a question, rather than retrieve and rank relevant datasets. We propose PIPER, a content-driven retrieval method for tabular datasets that uses table profiles and LLM-generated queries embedded for dense retrieval. Designed for dataset search in poor-metadata settings, PIPER outperforms both classical metadata-based baselines and strong TableQA retrieval methods, demonstrating the value of LLM-based content modeling for tabular dataset search.

Predictive models play a pivotal role in credit risk management, guiding critical decisions through accurate estimation of default probabilities and losses. Extensive research has introduced new modeling techniques, complemented by large-scale benchmarking studies consolidating the state-of-the-art. Today, quasi-standards such as gradient-boosting models paired with SHAP explainers have emerged, yet continuous improvement of risk models remains a top priority. Concurrently, rapid advancements in AI, most notably large language models, have disrupted predictive modeling paradigms. Foundation models, pretrained on extensive datasets from diverse domains, have demonstrated remarkable performance by leveraging prior knowledge. While prevalent in natural language processing and computer vision, foundation models for tabular data have only recently emerged. We conjecture that pretraining on out-of-domain data is particularly beneficial in small-data settings, such as SME lending or specialized corporate portfolios, and may help address longstanding challenges including low default portfolios and class imbalance. This paper benchmarks recently proposed tabular foundation models against a broad set of competitors, including established and advanced machine learning techniques, across two core tasks: PD and LGD modeling. Our evaluation encompasses various datasets, performance indicators, and experimental conditions. We find that tabular foundation models generally perform best across datasets and tasks. Moreover, they offer significant improvement in predictive performance as dataset size shrinks. These results are remarkable given that the models are tested out-of-the-box, without hyperparameter tuning, ensuring ease of use and mitigating computational costs.

Prior-Data Fitted networks (PFNs) have been very successful in tabular contexts, handling prediction tasks in context. However, they are designed for single-task inference, meaning that predicting several target values within a context requires repeated forward calls and precludes inter-task information sharing. We propose TabPFN-MT, which is trained on an expanded multi-target synthetic prior to capture inter-task dependencies in context. This model uses an expanded $y$-encoder and a shared decoder head to enable multitask in-context learning and simultaneous inference. The model is uniquely specialized for small-to-medium datasets by relying on in-context learning rather than traditional gradient-based training. Within this regime (averaging fewer than 1,000 samples), extensive evaluations across 344 datasets demonstrate that TabPFN-MT establishes a new state-of-the-art for deep tabular multitask learning. Furthermore, despite the inherent compute asymmetry of joint optimization, our model remains highly competitive with the latest state-of-the-art single-task ensembles. Notably, on multitask datasets it achieves an overall Accuracy rank of 4.89, the highest average rank among all models tested. Crucially, TabPFN-MT delivers this highly competitive performance while reducing the inference cost for $T$ tasks from $O(T)$ to $O(1)$ forward passes, offering a massive computational efficiency improvement for multi-target tabular applications.

Pediatric critical care is a dynamic, high-stakes process involving constant monitoring and adjustments in life-saving treatments. Modeling these interventions is crucial for effective decision support. To address the challenges of high complexity and data scarcity in pediatric Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO), we frame clinical decision-making as learning to act from trajectories, i.e., imitation learning that learns action models from observational data, with a key feature that actions are not directly observed. We consider TabPFN, a recent transformer-based approach for tabular data, and traditional baselines including XGBoost and Multi-Layer Perceptrons(MLPs) on real-world pediatric ECMO data to learn the action models. We find that the TabPFN-based approach consistently outperforms these classical baselines, supporting its use as a strong clinician-behavior baseline for pediatric ECMO decision support.

Automated machine learning pipelines increasingly produce models whose predictions must be explained to end users, auditors, and downstream decision systems. The most widely used feature attribution methods (SHAP, Integrated Gradients, LIME) are typically chosen by convention rather than measured fidelity, because rigorous evaluation is impeded by the absence of ground-truth attribution on real data. We propose AGOP-IxG, a fast per-sample attribution method for tabular classifiers that pre-multiplies the per-sample gradient by a top-$K$ rank-truncated Average Gradient Outer Product matrix, and evaluate it against four widely-used baselines on a controlled tabular benchmark designed for AutoML practitioners. In Part 1, we construct three synthetic multi-class tabular tasks (linear, sparse nonlinear, interaction-based) where ground-truth attribution per sample is analytically or numerically derivable, and compare five methods: AGOP-IxG, SHAP (DeepExplainer), Integrated Gradients, InputXGradient, and LIME. AGOP-IxG leads on Spearman rank correlation and noise feature mass on all three synthetic datasets, and on top-$k$ precision on the interaction dataset. Across all settings, AGOP-IxG is approximately $350\times$ to $1{,}650\times$ faster than SHAP. In Part 2, we evaluate global faithfulness on Adult Income and Credit Card Default using the ROAR protocol; the methods cluster within $\sim 1.7\%$ relative AUC, consistent with AGOP-IxG being optimized for per-sample local attribution rather than global feature ranking.

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires substantial methodological and domain expertise. We introduce SurvivalPFN, a prior-data fitted network that amortizes Bayesian inference for censored observations through in-context learning. SurvivalPFN is pretrained on a diverse family of synthetic, identifiable, and right-censored data-generating processes, enabling it to amortize survival analysis in a single forward pass during inference. As a result, the model adapts to the effective complexity of each dataset without task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning, avoids restrictive parametric assumptions, and produces calibrated survival distributions. In a large-scale benchmark spanning 61 datasets, 21 methods, and 5 evaluation metrics, SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance and often improves upon established survival models. These results suggest that SurvivalPFN offers a principled and practical foundation model for survival analysis, with potential applications in high-impact domains such as healthcare, finance, and engineering (https://github.com/rgklab/SurvivalPFN).

Reconstructing precise clinical timelines is essential for modeling patient trajectories and forecasting risk in complex, heterogeneous conditions like sepsis. While unstructured clinical narratives offer semantically rich and contextually complete descriptions of a patient's course, they often lack temporal precision and contain ambiguous event timing. Conversely, structured electronic health record (EHR) data provides precise temporal anchors but misses a substantial portion of clinically meaningful events. We introduce a retrieval-augmented multimodal alignment framework that bridges this gap to improve the temporal precision of absolute clinical timelines extracted from text. Our approach formulates timeline reconstruction as a graph-based multistep process: it first extracts central anchor events from narratives to build an initial temporal scaffold, places non-central events relative to this backbone, and then calibrates the timeline using retrieved structured EHR rows as external temporal evidence. Evaluated using instruction-tuned large language models on the i2m4 benchmark spanning MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV, our multimodal pipeline consistently improves absolute timestamp accuracy (AULTC) and improves temporal concordance across nearly all evaluated models over unimodal text-only reconstruction, without compromising event match rates. Furthermore, our empirical gap analysis reveals that 34.8% of text-derived events are entirely absent from tabular records, demonstrating that aligning these modalities can produce a more temporally faithful and clinically informative reconstruction of patient trajectories than either source alone.

Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has a continuous range. This setting is far less explored and represents a substantial shift from the binary treatment setting, with models needing to represent effects across a continuum of treatment values. In this paper, we present the first causal foundation model for the continuous treatment setting. Our model meta-learns the ability to predict causal effects across a wide variety of unseen tasks without additional training or fine-tuning. First, we design a novel prior over data-generating processes with continuous treatment variables in order to generate a rich causal training corpus. We then train a transformer to reconstruct individual treatment-response curves given only observational data, leveraging in-context learning to amortize expensive Bayesian posterior inference. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on individual treatment-response curve reconstruction tasks compared to causal models which are trained specifically for those tasks. Inference code (including trained model weights) can be found at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/CCPFN-inference .

Imbalanced learning remains a fundamental challenge in tabular data applications. Despite decades of research and numerous proposed algorithms, a systematic empirical understanding of how different imbalanced learning methods behave across diverse data characteristics is still lacking. In particular, it remains unclear how different method families compare in predictive performance, robustness under varying data characteristics, and computational scalability. In this work, we present Tabular Imbalanced Learning Benchmark (TILBench), a large-scale empirical benchmark for tabular imbalanced learning. TILBench evaluates more than 40 representative algorithms across 57 diverse tabular datasets, resulting in over 200000 controlled experiments across a wide range of data characteristics. Our findings show that no single method consistently dominates across all settings; instead, the effectiveness of imbalanced learning methods depends strongly on dataset characteristics and computational constraints. Based on these findings, we provide practical recommendations for selecting appropriate methods in real-world applications.

Tabular data sharing under privacy constraints is increasingly important for research and collaboration. Synthetic data generators (SDGs) are a promising solution, but synthetic data remains vulnerable to attacks, such as membership inference attacks (MIAs), which aim to determine whether a specific record was part of the training data. State-of-the-art MIAs are powerful but impractical: they rely on shadow modeling, requiring hundreds of SDG training runs, and need auxiliary data several times larger than the original training set. Fast proxy metrics like distance to closest record (DCR) are efficient but have limited sensitivity to MIA risk. We introduce ReMIA (Relative Membership Inference Attack), a practical privacy metric that requires only two SDG training runs and additional data no larger than the original training set. Rather than predicting whether a record was in the training set, ReMIA generates two synthetic datasets from two source datasets and measures whether a classifier can identify which source a record came from. Experiments across multiple tabular datasets and SDGs show that ReMIA has a sensitivity comparable to state-of-the-art MIAs while being substantially more practical. We further observe that SDGs can achieve privacy-utility trade-offs that traditional noise-based anonymization methods do not match. Code is available at https://github.com/aindo-com/remia.

Artificial intelligence in high-stakes tabular domains cannot be evaluated by predictive performance alone, yet current practice still assesses explainability, fairness, robustness, privacy, and sustainability mostly in isolation. We propose the Model Integrity and Responsibility Assessment Index (MIRAI), a unified evaluation framework that measures tabular models across these five dimensions under a controlled comparison setting and aggregates them into a single score. MIRAI combines established metrics through normalized and direction-aligned dimension scores, which enables direct comparison across models with different architectural and computational profiles. Experiments on healthcare, financial, and socioeconomic datasets show that higher predictive performance does not necessarily imply better overall integrity and responsibility. In several cases, simpler models achieve a stronger cross-dimensional balance than more complex deep tabular architectures. MIRAI provides a compact and practical basis for responsible model selection in regulated settings.

Multi-step LLM reasoning over structured tables fails because planning and execution share no explicit cell-grounding contract. Existing methods constrain the planner to a left-to-right factorization at odds with table permutation invariance, and score intermediate states by generated content alone, overlooking cell grounding. We conduct a pilot study showing that diffusion language models (DLMs) produce more human-aligned and permutation-stable cell attention on tables than autoregressive models, with a 40.2% median reduction in attention-AUROC variability under row reordering. Motivated by this, we propose TABALIGN, a planned table reasoning framework that operationalizes the contract. TABALIGN pairs a masked DLM planner, whose bidirectional denoising emits plan steps as binary cell masks, with TABATTN, a lightweight verifier trained on 1,600 human-verified attention standards to score each step by its attention overlap with the plan-designated mask. Across eight benchmarks covering table question answering and fact verification, TABALIGN improves average accuracy by 15.76 percentage points over the strongest open-source baseline at comparable 8B-class scale, with a matched-backbone ablation attributing 2.87 percentage points of this gain to the DLM planner over an AR planner on a fixed reasoner. Cleaner DLM plans also accelerate downstream reasoning execution by 44.64%.

Recent tabular learning benchmarks increasingly show a tight performance cluster rather than a clear hierarchy among leading methods, spanning gradient boosted decision trees, attention-based architectures, and implicit ensembles such as TabM. As benchmark gains plateau, a complementary goal is to understand and control the mechanisms that make simple neural tabular models competitive. We propose LoMETab, a rank-$r$ generalization of multiplicative implicit ensembles. LoMETab lifts the rank-1 BatchEnsemble/TabM modulation to a rank-$r$ identity-residual Hadamard family by parameterizing each member weight as $W_k = W \odot (1 + A_kB_k^\top)$, where $W$ is shared and $(A_k, B_k)$ are member-specific low-rank factors. This exposes two practical diversity-control axes: the adapter rank $r$ and the initialization scale $σ_{\mathrm{init}}$, and we prove that for $r \ge 2$ this generalization strictly enlarges BatchEnsemble's hypothesis class. Empirically, we show that this added capacity manifests as measurable predictive diversity after training: on representative classification datasets, LoMETab sustains higher pairwise KL than an additive low-rank ablation, and $(r, σ_{\mathrm{init}})$ provides broad control over pairwise KL, varying by up to several orders of magnitude across configurations. The induced diversity is reflected in task-appropriate output-level measures: argmax disagreement for classification and ambiguity for regression, indicating that the control extends beyond pairwise KL to decision- and output-level member variation. Finally, experiments sweeping over adapter rank $r$ and initialization scale $σ_{\mathrm{init}}$ reveal that predictive performance is dataset-dependent over the $(r, σ_{\mathrm{init}})$ grid, supporting LoMETab as a controllable family of implicit ensembles rather than a fixed rank-1 construction.

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

During thDuring the last few years, the term Mechanistic Interpretability, a specific area, under the umbrella of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), has been introduced, to explain the decisions made by complex machine learning (ML) models in critical systems like UAV intrusion detection systems (UAVIDS). In this paper, we apply best-practices for data pre-processing and examine a wide range of tree-ensembles, deep neural networks, hybrid stacking models and the latest ensemble neural networks to detect intrusions in UAV, with stratified 10-fold cross validation. With our top-performing model, XGBoost, we proceed to Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP), to analyze the global and local feature importances and understand which features, each attack targets, to mimic normal traffic and where the misclassifications occur. Furthermore a distribution analysis follows, by visually comparing violin plots and the curves of kernel density estimations. With the Westfall-Young permutation test for multiple comparisons, the Bandwidth optimization of the KDEs and the selection of Jensen-Shannon Distance for the test, we discover the true causes of false predictions, observed in Wormhole and Blackhole attacks in UAVIDS-2025. The findings provide robust, reliable and explainable models for UAV intrusion detection, along with statistical insights, which capture and clarify the masked nature of the attacks, regarding the challenge of Density Support Intersection, between these attacks, in this dataset.

We propose last-mile fine-tuning, or Lift, a pipeline in which a pre-trained large language model extracts an initial table from unstructured clipboard text, and a fine-tuned small language model (1B-24B parameters SLM) repairs errors in the extracted table. On a benchmark of 2,596 tables from three datasets, Lift matches or exceeds end-to-end SLM fine-tuning on tree-edit-distance-based similarity (TEDS) metric while requiring as little as 1,000 training examples - where it outperforms end-to-end fine-tuning by up to 0.144 TEDS points. We term this approach last-mile fine-tuning and show it also more robust to input format variability. Comparisons with self-debug and end-to-end fine-tuning approaches show that last-mile fine-tuning provides an attractive option when training data is limited or when robustness to input variation is sought without compromising on accuracy.