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Papers

May 23, 2026cs.CL

CSP-Atlas: Concept-Specific Neural Circuits in a Sparse Python Transformer

A sparse 8-layer code transformer develops dedicated neural circuitry for every Python construct tested, and that circuitry is organised by a clean computational principle rather than by semantic category. We extract neural circuits for 106 concepts (43 AST node types, 63 builtin objects) by marginalising across 63,800 controlled prompts, and decompose each circuit into concept-specific and token-driven components using contrastive checker prompts that present a keyword token without its associated syntactic structure. Three findings emerge. First, all 106 concepts produce non-empty universal circuits at every one of nine parameter settings, and the ranking of concept-specificity across constructs is stable across the sweep - survival is not an artifact of a permissive threshold. Second, AST circuits contain a genuine concept component distinct from token activation: concept-only neurons constitute up to 62.5% of the loudest-firing neurons at mid-to-late layers, while builtin circuits are almost entirely token-driven. Third, six computationally atomic constructs - Import, ImportFrom, Break, Continue, Pass, Assert - cluster together despite being semantically unrelated, sharing only the property of being single-statement constructs requiring no nested body; this atomicity super-cluster, together with a four-tier hierarchy organised by token ambiguity and structural distinctiveness, shows that the model's internal organisation tracks computational structure rather than meaning. The methodology, full decomposition data, and analysis code are released.
Piotr Wilam
May 23, 2026cs.RO

MuGen: Multi-Skill Generative Locomotion Controller for Humanoid Robots

This paper presents MuGen, a data-driven framework for learning and deploying multi-skill locomotion on humanoid robots. MuGen enables a robot to perform expressive motions like humans under the guidance of example motion sequences. To achieve this, we employ vector-quantized autoencoders (VQ-VAEs) trained with model-based reinforcement learning, resulting in a generative representation of locomotion that captures key patterns of human motion from hours of heterogeneous human performance data. We employ a teacher-student learning framework and develop a new policy distillation strategy to enable a deployable student policy learning this efficient latent representation. This policy allows the robot to track and mimic unseen human motions and further enables the robot to reuse the learned latent space for other tasks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework through a diverse set of motions and accurate execution.
Yusen Feng, Xiang Wang, Heyuan Yao +7
May 23, 2026cs.CL

AstroMind: A High-Fidelity Benchmark for Spacecraft Behavior Reasoning Based on Large Language Models

Understanding why a spacecraft maneuvers -- rather than simply that it did -- is an increasingly important problem for space domain awareness as Earth orbits grow crowded and contested. Current analysis pipelines are built for detection: they are good at picking up that something happened, less good at reasoning about what it means. AstroMind is a physics-grounded benchmark designed to close that gap. It draws on high-fidelity astrodynamics simulations and real observational constraints, converting them into verifiable reasoning problems across three task types: intent inference, maneuver parameter estimation, and threat assessment. Each scenario includes realistic sensing noise and multi-source textual intelligence at varying reliability levels. Evaluation metrics capture both semantic correctness and quantitative consistency under physical constraints. Benchmarking a suite of open-weight models shows no single model dominates every axis: Qwen3 (32B) leads on intent inference accuracy; QwQ (32B) leads on threat assessment and achieves the lowest median relative error on parsed items; GPT-OSS (20B) produces the strongest judged reasoning quality and extracts the most scalar values for parameter estimation (136 of 241 parsed items). Training data composition and reasoning style matter as much as model size. Structured reasoning prompts help consistently across tested 8B models, with larger gains for those that can already track physical constraints. AstroMind gives the field a shared test for a problem where getting the physics right and reading the tactical situation correctly are both required -- neither is sufficient on its own.
Hao Liu, Siyuan Yang, Qinglei Hu +1
May 23, 2026cs.AI

Benchmarking the Limits of In-Context Reinforcement Learning for Ad-Hoc Teamwork

In-Context Reinforcement Learning (ICRL) has enabled foundation agents to adapt instantaneously to novel tasks, yet its efficacy in Ad-Hoc Teamwork (AHT)-where coordination with unknown partners is required-remains unexplored. To rigorously evaluate this, we introduce a large-scale benchmark ICRL4AHT, built upon a high-throughput JAX implementation of Overcooked-V2. Our benchmark includes a large, diverse teammate suite spanning both RL and heuristic policies, enabling controlled train-test shifts, and provides a reproducible end-to-end pipeline for teammate generation, learning-history collection, dataset construction, and online multi-episode evaluation. We evaluate representative history-conditioned ICRL algorithms, including Algorithm Distillation (AD) and Decision-Pretrained Transformer (DPT), across millions of transitions. Results reveal notable limitations: contrary to their success in single-agent domains, these baselines fail to exhibit robust test-time adaptation in multi-agent settings. Specifically, these methods frequently underperform random baselines across both unseen teammate and unseen layout tracks, with no clear in-context improvement over long horizons. These findings highlight the challenges of strategic inference under partial observability within the OvercookedV2 AHT protocol, establishing our benchmark as a critical testbed for next-generation coordination algorithms.
Yuheng Jing, Kai Li, Ziwen Zhang +8
May 23, 2026cs.RO

AcroRL: Learning Aggressive Quadrotor Inversion using Bidirectional Thrust

Bidirectional thrust grants quadrotors a second equilibrium condition and increased control authority, expanding the envelope of possible aggressive maneuvers and enabling inverted flight, perching, and sensing. Prior geometric control approaches extend differential flatness through Hopf fibration-based attitude representations to support bidirectional thrust, but struggle with actuator saturation and motor reversal delay during inversions, requiring heuristic thrust posture scheduling and waypoint tuning. We propose a learning-based framework that modulates a constant reference trajectory to perform compact, position-constrained quadrotor inversions while remaining compatible with traditional trajectory generation and tracking across flight regimes. Separate policies are trained via reinforcement learning for nominal-to-inverted and inverted-to-nominal transitions. In JAX-based simulation, the proposed method achieves the lowest position deviation and settling time across all evaluated baselines, reducing position root mean square error (RMSE) by 32% and settling time by 57% relative to the strongest optimization-based baseline. Hardware experiments demonstrate successful inversion across multiple yaw configurations with position RMSE below 0.35m, and compatibility with downstream trajectory generation and control through circular flight in both regimes. Additionally, we provide an open-source implementation of the proposed framework.
Gabriel Rodriguez, Henri Sayag, Abhishek Rathod +4
May 22, 2026cs.AI

EvoCode-Bench: Evaluating Coding Agents in Multi-Turn Iterative Interactions

Coding agents are increasingly used as iterative development partners, but most benchmarks still evaluate one specification followed by one final assessment. This leaves out a basic question: can an agent keep its own codebase working as requirements change? We introduce EvoCode-Bench, a benchmark of 26 stateful coding tasks and 227 evaluated rounds. Each task preserves the agent's workspace for 5-15 rounds, states requirements through observable behavior, and uses cumulative executable tests to check new requirements and still-active prior ones. We evaluate 13 coding agents with two metrics: MT@4, a four-attempt fail-stop multi-round score, and SR, a single-round score from a reference-completed prior state. For most agents, SR exceeds MT@4 by 22-40 points. The gap also changes rankings: the highest-SR agent (78.9) ranks only third in persistent execution (44.0 MT@4). Even the strongest agents achieve only about 50% success on multi-turn metrics, and aggregate pass rate drops below half of round-1 performance by round 5. Failure analysis shows tier-dependent behavior: weaker agents fail early, while stronger agents survive long enough to expose specification-tracking and regression failures. We release the benchmark data and Harbor multi-turn infrastructure.
Haiyang Shen, Xuanzhong Chen, Wendong Xu +3
May 22, 2026cs.RO

Direct Dynamic Retargeting for Humanoid Imitation Learning from Videos

Imitation Learning from monocular video demonstrations provides a scalable approach for teaching complex skills to humanoid robots. However, translating human motion to humanoids requires overcoming significant morphological mismatches. Standard approaches rely on Geometric Retargeting or Indirect Dynamic Retargeting pipelines. We identify that these intermediate kinematic projections introduce a geometric bias, restricting the search space and yielding suboptimal dynamic behaviors. In this paper, we propose Direct Dynamic Retargeting (DDR), a novel single-stage framework that generates high-fidelity, dynamically feasible trajectories directly from expert videos. By formulating the problem in the task space and leveraging a sampling-based Model Predictive Control solver within a physics simulator, DDR natively optimizes over complex contact sequences while mitigating input drift. Our experiments demonstrate that bypassing the geometric bias allows DDR to outperform state-of-the-art baselines in demonstration tracking accuracy. Furthermore, we establish that providing such physically viable references to RL agents accelerates training convergence and enhances the final execution of agile and balancing behaviors. Source code will be made publicly available.
Constant Roux, Ludovic De Matteïs, Armand Jordana +4
May 22, 2026cs.RO

Vision-Based Agile Landing on Turbulent Waters

Autonomous landing of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles on maritime vessels is challenging due to the coupled motion of the vehicle and landing platform in open-sea conditions. This paper presents a reinforcement-learning-based approach for autonomous multirotor landing on moving maritime platforms without requiring explicit platform-state observations or estimation during deployment. The proposed method uses multirotor state measurements together with local visual features, consisting of keypoints and associated descriptors extracted from the landing surface, to predict attitude and thrust commands. These commands are tracked by a conventional low-level controller. The policy is trained in simulation using synthetic keypoints with randomly generated normalized descriptors, enabling zero-shot deployment with different local feature extractors onboard the UAV. We evaluate the method in a realistic simulator and show that it outperforms a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control baseline under platform motions corresponding to ''Very Rough'' sea conditions. Finally, we perform extensive real-world experiments, demonstrating autonomous onboard landing using two different local feature extractors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach for agile multirotor landing on maritime platforms in turbulent waters that does not rely on an explicit platform-state during deployment.
Dimosthenis Angelis, Leonard Bauersfeld, Davide Scaramuzza +1
May 22, 2026cs.CE

Operator Learning for Reconstructing Flow Fields from Sparse Measurements: a Language Model Approach

Reconstructing flow fields from sparse measurements is a fundamental problem in fluid mechanics with broad implications for modeling, control, and design. In this work, we propose a novel operator learning framework that leverages the architecture of language models to perform flow reconstruction in a mesh-free manner. We reformulate flow field reconstruction as a sequence-to-sequence learning task, where sparse measurements are treated as context and unobserved locations as queries. Our model learns to reconstruct the full flow field from sparse inputs, effectively capturing spatial correlations and long-range dependencies. We evaluate the proposed approach on four benchmark datasets: (1) two-dimensional vortex street simulations, (2) daily average temperature data across the contiguous United States, (3) three-dimensional blood flow simulations based on dissipative particle dynamics, and (4) three-dimensional turbulent jet flow measurements obtained via particle tracking velocimetry. Across all cases, our method demonstrates competitive reconstruction accuracy, even with highly incomplete data (less than 10% observed), and achieves efficient performance. The results highlight the potential of language models as robust and scalable tools for scientific data reconstruction, and suggest a promising direction toward the development of foundation models for scientific and engineering applications.
Qian Zhang, George Em Karniadakis
May 22, 2026cs.CL

OnePred: Next-Query Prediction via Recursive Intent Memory in Multi-Turn Conversations

Although large language model (LLM) conversational systems process millions of multi-turn dialogues daily, they remain fundamentally reactive: they respond only after the user types a query. A key step toward proactive interaction is next-query prediction, which anticipates the user's subsequent query based solely on the preceding dialogue. Progress on this task is hindered by the lack of dedicated benchmarks and a fundamental efficiency--quality trade-off: naively concatenating full dialogue history incurs linearly growing token consumption, while truncating to the latest turn discards crucial cross-turn context. Our key insight is that accurate prediction does not require re-reading raw history; it suffices to track the user's evolving intent trajectory across topics, unresolved needs, and interest shifts. We propose OnePred, which maintains a recursively updated memory as its sole cross-turn context, bounding the per-turn cost independently of conversation length. We train the model via a two-stage reinforcement learning pipeline that first teaches what to predict, then what to compress, shaping the memory into a prediction-oriented intent chain. To establish a rigorous testbed, we introduce NQP-Bench, spanning three diverse subsets. Experiments demonstrate that OnePred reduces per-turn token consumption by up to 22×\times compared to full-history inputs while consistently exceeding all baselines in prediction quality, with larger gains on longer conversations. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZBWpro/OnePred.
Jiangwang Chen, Bowen Zhang, Zixin Song +4
May 22, 2026math.OC

RA-DCA: A Randomized Active-Set DCA for Directional Stationarity in Max-Structured DC Programs

We study nonsmooth difference-of-convex programs whose subtracted convex term is a finite maximum of smooth convex functions. In this setting, standard DCA iterations may converge to critical points that are not directionally stationary, whereas exact active-vertex screening can be expensive when active sets are large or combinatorial. We propose RA-DCA, a vertex-first randomized active-set DCA that projects active gradients onto sampled directions, checks a sampled vertex residual, and uses a small linear program only as a low-residual convex-combination fallback. The method preserves the descent structure of DCA and reduces the randomized screening layer to matrix multiplications. Under the stated regularity, numerical active-set consistency, and random-embedding assumptions, every accumulation point generated by the safeguarded method is directionally stationary with probability one. MATLAB experiments first test the theorem on degenerate max-affine, max-quadratic, and sparse support-function models, where the safeguard avoids nonstationary critical points and closely tracks a full active-vertex scan. Block top-k tests then show that the same screening idea remains useful when exact aggregate enumeration is combinatorial. Trimmed-regression, complementarity, and QUBO diagnostics separate cases where active-set selection helps from cases dominated by multistart search, the DC split, or other problem-specific features.
Yi-Shuai Niu
May 22, 2026cs.LG

Learning Individual Dynamics from Sparse Cross-Sectional Snapshots

Predicting how a dynamical unit evolves over time - how an individual ages, an epidemic spreads, or a physical system degrades - typically requires dense longitudinal tracking. When only extremely sparse or entirely cross-sectional data is available, inferring individualized, continuous-time trajectories is fundamentally ill-posed. Existing methods force a strict compromise: sequence models (e.g. latent ODEs) require dense longitudinal data, while cross-sectional methods (e.g. optimal transport, flow matching-based) map aggregate populations, losing individual dynamics. In this paper, we demonstrate that this dichotomy can be broken. We introduce CADENCE, a principled probabilistic framework that recovers continuous individual trajectories from isolated snapshots by anchoring latent dynamics to static, individual-level contexts. We provide novel identifiability guarantees for single-timepoint trajectory inference. By combining a score-based spatial encoder (bijective Probability Flow ODE) to eliminate diffeomorphic ambiguities with a Soft Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) router, we show that individual dynamical parameters and routing function are jointly identifiable. Across a suite of benchmarks spanning physical systems to real-world biological data, CADENCE, trained strictly on extremely sparse snapshots with context structure, matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art sequential models trained on dense, full-trajectory data.
Christian Lagemann, Kai Lagemann, Steven L. Brunton +1
May 22, 2026cs.LG

Onsager-Machlup Posterior Transport for Deep Gaussian Processes

Approximate inference over inducing variables is the central computational bottleneck of Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs). Existing methods either fit an explicit density qφ(\bU)q_φ(\bU) by an ELBO (DSVI, IPVI, DDVI, DBVI) or sample by MCMC (SGHMC). We instead frame DGP inference as \emph{posterior transport}: learn a deterministic sampler that maps a tractable reference measure to posterior-relevant inducing variables, regularised by a path prior derived from the Doob-bridged reference diffusion. Our realisation, \textbf{OM-Path} (formally FBVI-bridge-Path), uses Song's probability-flow ODE applied to DBVI's Doob-bridged forward SDE; the reference drift is closed-form from the bridge marginal coefficients (no score matching) and the path regulariser is the \textbf{Onsager--Machlup action}. At the finite-εε value used at training, the objective is the negative log unnormalised density of a tempered Doob-bridge path posterior, and Theorem 1 identifies it with the same posterior's small-noise MAP path via the Freidlin--Wentzell LDP. Two strict path-space ELBO variants on the same bridge backbone (FFJORD log-det; OM-regularised CNF) are derived as ablations. Under a matched-seed paired Wilcoxon test against DBVI on seven UCI regression benchmarks, OM-Path delivers statistically significant wins on the two largest datasets (\textit{power}: p ⁣= ⁣0.014p\!=\!0.014, NLL 0.012\mathbf{0.012} matching the DSVI baseline of 0.0170.017; \textit{protein}: p ⁣= ⁣0.002p\!=\!0.002, RMSE 0.716\mathbf{0.716} vs.\ 0.7640.764, NLL 1.086\mathbf{1.086} vs.\ 1.1491.149), statistical ties on \textit{yacht} / \textit{qsar}, and concedes \textit{boston} / \textit{energy} / \textit{concrete} to DBVI on small-NN noisy data. The strict-ELBO variants do not clear DBVI on any UCI metric: in this regime, reducing the variance of the path objective dominates exact-density tracking.
Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John Paisley +1
May 22, 2026cs.AI

Human-in-the-Loop Multi-Agent Ventilator Decision Support with Contextual Bandit Preference Learning

Ventilator decision support requires sequential decisions that track evolving physiology and disease trajectories while respecting safety boundaries and clinician specific tuning styles. Rule based approaches rarely generalize personalization, and end to end reinforcement learning or single large language model systems remain difficult to control and audit. We propose the Ventilator Decision Support System (VDSS), a human in the loop multi agent framework that coordinates modular decision components through contract driven structured interfaces and produces traceable evidence for review. VDSS performs online preference adaptation with a contextual bandit, updating clinician specific preferences from the final accepted decision at each adjustment cycle and using them to guide subsequent recommendations. Structured rejection feedback triggers targeted replanning to reduce unproductive iterations and improve interaction stability. Retrospective ICU trajectory replay with expert review indicates higher recommendation acceptability and fewer interaction rounds to reach an acceptable plan, supporting clinically deployable human AI collaboration.
Sijia Li, Xiaoyu Tan, Qixing Wang +7
May 22, 2026cs.LG

Diffusion Domain Expansion: Learning to Coordinate Pre-trained Diffusion Models

In this paper, we propose Diffusion Domain Expansion (DDE), a method that efficiently extends pre-trained diffusion models to generate larger objects and handle more complex conditioning beyond their original capabilities. Our method employs a compact trainable network designed to coordinate the denoised outputs of pre-trained diffusion models. We demonstrate that the coordinator can be universally simple while being capable of generalizing to domains larger than those observed during its training time. We evaluate DDE on long audio track generation and conditional image generation, demonstrating its applicability across domains. DDE outperforms other approaches to coordinated generation with diffusion models in qualitative and quantitative evaluations.
Egor Lifar, Semyon Savkin, Timur Garipov +2
May 22, 2026cs.CV

CaST-Bench: Benchmarking Causal Chain-Grounded Spatio-Temporal Reasoning for Video Question Answering

Cause-and-effect reasoning in video is a significant challenge for Vision-Language Models (VLMs), as it requires going beyond surface-level perception to a deeper understanding of causal mechanisms. However, existing benchmarks rarely provide the fine-grained, grounded evidence needed to rigorously evaluate this capability. To address this gap, we introduce CaST-Bench, a benchmark for Causal Chain-Grounded Spatio-Temporal Video Reasoning. CaST-Bench presents complex causal questions that require models to identify and localize a chain of multiple spatio-temporal evidences. Through a human-AI collaborative pipeline, we construct a high-quality dataset of 2,066 questions over 1,015 videos, with causal chains annotated by temporal segments and bounding-box tracks. Furthermore, we design a comprehensive evaluation suite with novel metrics that assess not only answer correctness but also the capability for visual evidence grounded reasoning. This grounding is crucial for improving accuracy by mitigating spurious correlations and for enhancing user trust by making models more transparent. Our experiments show that current VLMs struggle with causal questions, largely due to their limited ability to construct precise and grounded causal chains. This highlights an important direction for improving future VLMs. Homepage: https://woven-by-toyota.github.io/CaST-Bench.
Mingfang Zhang, Jingjing Pan, Ashutosh Kumar +7
May 22, 2026cs.AI

AutoResearch AI: Towards AI-Powered Research Automation for Scientific Discovery

Scientific research is being reshaped by AI systems that move beyond isolated assistance toward longer-horizon workflows spanning literature grounding, hypothesis generation, experimentation, validation, reporting, and revision. This shift marks a transition from task-level AI for science to workflow-level research automation. Yet current systems remain fragmented, differing in autonomy, domain scope, execution environment, validation mechanism, and human oversight, while still struggling with evidence preservation, reproducibility, weak-direction rejection, provenance tracking, cross-domain robustness, and accountable scientific closure. This survey examines these developments through AutoResearch, defined as the developmental spectrum of AI-powered scientific workflow automation. Within it, Vibe Research denotes the human-steered region of prompt-based assistance and human-verified execution, whereas emerging AI-led systems coordinate larger portions of the discovery loop without achieving robust autonomy. We analyze how research systems redistribute control, evidence, execution, validation, and accountability across workflows and organize the field around five workflow conditions: literature and research grounding; hypothesis formation and planning; experimentation and tool use; feedback, validation, and review; and reporting and knowledge communication. We further synthesize AI scientist systems, mixed-initiative co-research frameworks, benchmarks, domain deployments, and open-source infrastructures. Finally, we propose five evaluation dimensions--novelty, validity, impact, reliability, and provenance--and show that AutoResearch autonomy is domain-conditioned, being more credible in structured, executable, and rapidly verifiable settings but limited in embodied, delayed, heterogeneous, ethical, or institutionally accountable contexts.
Guiyao Tie, Jiawen Shi, Dingjie Song +20
May 22, 2026cs.CY

Limited Marginal Benefit of Reasoning-Heavy LLM Deployment in ESG Narrative Scoring: A 4-Model Consensus Study on Japanese Listed Firms

Automated scoring of ESG narrative disclosures with large language models (LLMs) is gaining traction, yet whether reasoning-heavy frontier models add value commensurate with their cost remains empirically unsettled. We evaluate this question on a corpus of ten Japanese listed firms across three rubric axes -- quantitative targets, progress-tracking infrastructure, and external-standard alignment -- using a four-model consensus design that combines a reasoning-on frontier model with three reasoning-off contemporaries. Across 120 firm x axis x model scores, the pooled mean absolute deviation between the reasoning-on model and each reasoning-off counterpart is 0.38 on a 5-point scale; only 2% of pairwise comparisons reach a two-point deviation, and none exceeds two points. Per-firm cost accounting shows the reasoning-on arm alone costs roughly 5.6x as much as the three-provider reasoning-off ensemble, for outcomes that differ only within small margins. We conclude that in span-based ESG narrative scoring, reasoning-heavy deployment does not materially improve outcomes relative to reasoning-off consensus, while substantially increasing operational cost. We discuss implications for cost-effective ESG auto-scoring pipelines and LLM deployment governance in applied accountability settings. An earlier version of this work is available on SSRN (Abstract ID 6683303).
Hiroyuki Kokubu
May 22, 2026cs.AI

Redrawing the AI Map: A Theory of Accountability Boundaries in Agentic Ecosystems

Agentic AI orchestrators reduce the interface and assembly costs of composing information systems capabilities across organizational boundaries, seemingly accelerating modularization and organizational disaggregation. Yet AI-enabled capabilities whose outputs require evidence, review, signoff, or assignable responsibility may retain integrated accountability boundaries even when their technical interfaces become modular. We develop a capability-level theory of accountability-boundary placement in agentic ecosystems. We introduce accountability assets: complementary assets that make AI-supported outputs legitimate, auditable, reviewable, and assignable to a responsible party. We argue that verification cost and responsibility transferability determine whether the execution and accountability boundaries can move together. The theory identifies three boundary strategies: component, integrated, and dual-track. It also introduces rule debt, the governance burden that accrues when organizational decision rules migrate from formal information systems into ungoverned agentic execution environments. Integrating digital innovation, transaction cost, complementary-assets, digital platform governance, and IS control perspectives, we develop seven propositions linking agentic assembly-cost reductions, accountability assets, appropriability, orchestrator intent capture, and boundary misconfiguration to boundary strategy, value appropriation, and rule debt. The theory explains when digital modularization extends to organizational disaggregation and when accountability keeps capabilities integrated. Structured illustrations across document processing, legal services, audit, clinical decision support, and procurement discipline the boundary logic.
Muhammad Zia Hydari, Farooq Muzaffar
May 21, 2026cs.CL

HawkesLLM: Semantic Uncertainty Propagation in Agentic Text Simulation

Agentic text-simulation systems write in sequence, with each item becoming possible context for later steps. That makes uncertainty path-dependent: an early ambiguity can affect later outputs. This paper studies this problem with HawkesLLM, a framework that separates temporal influence modeling from text generation. We represent the cascade as a network whose nodes are text-generating agents. A multivariate Hawkes process models how these nodes activate over time and which earlier node outputs should influence later prompts. A language model then writes each new event from the compact memory selected by this temporal model. We evaluate the framework on a held-out Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) news-cascade case study. The diagnostics track semantic alignment with local held-out references and separate local drift from global drift. In this setting, HawkesLLM improves late-stage semantic alignment under a compact prompt-memory budget.
Zewei Deng, Tinghan Ye, Liyan Xie
May 21, 2026cs.RO

Verified Task-Space Motion Planning Under Joint-Space Constraints

Reactive task-space planners such as Bug2 operate with fixed Cartesian step sizes and are unaware of the manipulator's joint-angle limits. When the Jacobian is poorly conditioned, even small Cartesian steps can demand joint changes that exceed admissible bounds; clipping the joints to their limits causes tracking drift and can prevent goal reaching entirely. We address this by computing, at each planning step, the largest Cartesian hyperrectangle that is \emph{certifiably reachable} under joint displacement bounds. Using a second-order polynomial approximation of the inverse kinematics and the S-procedure, we formulate a small semidefinite program whose solution yields the certified half-width~λ⋆λ^\star. An equivalent bisection procedure exploiting the quadratic structure solves the certification in sub-millisecond time. Integrating this certificate with Bug2 yields a planner whose step size adapts to local kinematic conditioning. In a statistical evaluation over 94 adversarial scenarios spanning six joint-limit settings, the SOS-verified planner achieves \emph{zero} joint-limit violations with a 100% goal-reaching rate, whereas a standard Bug2 planner violates joint limits in 6--11% of steps and fails to reach the goal in up to 18% of scenarios.
Hanjiang Hu, Changliu Liu, Yebin Wang
May 21, 2026cs.LG

MARGIN: Runtime Confidence Calibration for Multi-Agent Foundation Model Coordination

Foundation model agents increasingly operate in multi-agent deployments where a coordinator must decide which agent's response to trust. The standard approach weights agents by their self-reported confidence, but recent evidence shows that foundation model confidence is systematically miscalibrated and, on hard tasks, inversely correlated with accuracy. Design-time calibration methods (temperature scaling, Platt scaling, histogram binning) cannot address this problem because they fit a fixed correction to held-out data and degrade under distribution shift. We present MARGIN (Multi-Agent Runtime Grading via Incremental Normalisation), an online calibration method that learns per-agent, per-confidence-band calibration factors from the task stream itself, requiring no model access, no held-out data, and no retraining. MARGIN uses symmetric exponentially weighted moving averages with Bayesian shrinkage blending, and has three hyperparameters with robust defaults. Across 18 foundation models, 8 benchmarks, and over 44,000 observations, MARGIN achieves 3-6x lower calibration error than the best design-time baseline under distribution shift. In multi-agent selection, raw verbalized confidence fails to beat random at pairwise resolution (43-50%) on hard benchmarks. MARGIN corrects this completely, raising pairwise resolution to 70-89% and closing 37-78% of the Raw-to-Oracle pass@1 gap across the five code-generation benchmarks without any oracle knowledge of which model is strongest. Six formal propositions characterize convergence, tracking speed, and the optimality of symmetric updates for non-strategic agents, with all predictions illustrated empirically.
Joss Armstrong
May 21, 2026cs.CV

VideoOdyssey: A Benchmark for Ultra-Long-Context and Omni-Modal Video Understanding

Real-world long video understanding requires models to perform continuous tracking, information integration and memory retention over massive temporal spans within extreme video durations. Mastering this intense cognitive load constitutes the fundamental bottleneck in long video understanding. While existing benchmarks have driven progress by scaling up video duration, their evaluation tasks often require comprehending only short and isolated video segments, falling short of capturing the challenge of ultra-long-context reasoning. To measure this cognitive load, we emphasize continuous certificate length, defined as the video length a human must continuously watch to definitively answer a given question. Driven by this metric, we introduce VideoOdyssey, a benchmark specifically designed for ultra-long-context and omni-modal video understanding. VideoOdyssey is characterized by three key features: 1) Extreme video duration and diversity: spanning 11 domains and 54 subcategories with an average video duration of 109 minutes; 2) Comprehensive evaluation scenarios: offering two subsets to address different research focuses, i.e., VideoOdyssey-V for probing the limits of visual understanding in MLLMs, and VideoOdyssey-AV for evaluating synchronized audio-visual understanding for omni-modal models; 3) Ultra-long and multi-level continuous certificates: extending the average continuous certificate to 16 minutes for VideoOdyssey-V and 12.8 minutes for VideoOdyssey-AV. Crucially, we design 5 granular levels from seconds to hours, providing a comprehensive diagnostic tool to evaluate models across varying context lengths and cognitive loads. Extensive evaluations show that bottlenecks of current MLLMs extend beyond simple retrieval to include struggles with continuous reasoning across varying context lengths, fine-grained perception, and non-verbal omni-modal understanding.
Haichen He, Jiayi Zhou, Sifeng Shang +3
May 21, 2026cs.CV

Suicide Risk Assessment from AI-powered Video Surveillance: An Interpretable Framework for Prevention in Metro Stations

Understanding and monitoring human behavior in metro stations play an important role in supporting suicide prevention efforts, where early identification of high-risk situations can enable timely intervention. This requires assessing suicide risk from a surveillance video by jointly reasoning about the behavior of each passenger, his/her spatial context, and temporal dynamics. However, this assessment using videos captured by surveillance cameras is challenging, as it demands accurate perception of human motion, understanding of platform geometry, and aggregation of heterogeneous behavioral cues over time. In this work, we formalize the task of Suicide Risk Assessment (SRA) in metro stations and introduce the first interpretable framework that addresses this challenge. Unlike approaches that focus on isolated subtasks or attempt to infer intent directly, our formulation assesses suicide risk from accumulated evidence by incorporating person tracking, activity recognition, semantic segmentation of the platform, and trajectory-driven risk heatmap modeling. By formalizing SRA as a distinct task and benchmarking a complete operational pipeline achieving 83.2% ROC-AUC on real surveillance data, this work highlights the complexity of suicide risk assessment and opens new directions for research on interpretable AI systems for social good.
Safwen Naimi, Wassim Bouachir, Guillaume-Alexandre Bilodeau +1
May 21, 2026cs.AI

Is Capability a Liability? More Capable Language Models Make Worse Forecasts When It Matters Most

We document inverse scaling in LLMs on forecasting problems whose underlying time series exhibit superlinear growth and tail risk of regime change, a structure common in finance and epidemiology. On these tasks, more capable models produce worse distributional forecasts. The pattern appears on ForecastBench-Sim (FBSim), a contamination-free, simulated-world benchmark we release, in forecasting synthetic SIR epidemics with a matched linear control, and replicates in real-world datasets on COVID-19, measles, housing markets, and hyperinflation. A per-quantile decomposition shows the failure concentrates at the upper tail, which more capable models shift upward to track aggressive extrapolations of growth, while the lower tail stays put. A within-family study of Llama-3.1 shows that both model scale and post-training independently contribute to this effect. Domain knowledge does not reliably rescue calibration. This inverse scaling does not appear on single-threshold metrics common in LLM forecasting benchmarks, reversing the sign of the capability--accuracy relationship on identical outputs. Single-threshold scoring at conventional cutoffs misses the upper-tail cost; tail-inclusive scoring reverses the sign of the capability--accuracy relationship on the same outputs. We recommend that LLM forecasting evaluations use continuous (and unbounded) measures of accuracy alongside bounded binary threshold metrics.
Nick Merrill, Jaeho Lee, Ezra Karger
May 21, 2026cs.CV

What Does the Caption Really Say? Counterfactual Phrase Intervention for Compositional Data Selection in Vision-Language Pretraining

CLIP-style contrastive pretraining typically curates web-scale image-text pairs using sample-level filtering signals, often based on pair-level alignment. We show that this signal saturates: once coarse mismatches are removed, stricter global filtering no longer tracks the compositional supervision provided by the retained captions. The reason is structural - a global score conflates whether a pair is broadly plausible with whether the individual object, attribute, and relation phrases inside the caption materially support the image-text match. The latter is what compositional generalization demands, yet pair-level filters are blind to it. We address this with Counterfactual Phrase Intervention (CPI), a phrase-level curation framework that converts controlled nonce-token substitutions into image-conditioned phrase-sensitivity scores. CPI uses global alignment only for coarse mismatch removal, then ranks the surviving pool by whether caption phrases measurably affect the image-text score under controlled substitution. We frame CPI as a first-order phrase-sensitivity signal rather than a grounding or identification result, and evaluate it at CC3M scale. Ranking by this signal yields a 50%-data subset that improves VL-CheckList-VG Relation by +1.91 over the full-data baseline and +1.00 over alignment-only filtering at matched budget, while improving SugarCrepe overall and preserving general transfer. CPI is loss-orthogonal: applied unchanged to NegCLIP, it further improves VL-CheckList-VG Relation by +3.84, with additional CE-CLIP gains in the main text.
Hyejin Go, Semi Lee, Hyesong Choi
May 21, 2026cs.NE

Rare Events, Real Signals: Functional Ensembles as Units of Computation in Deep Spiking Networks

We investigate how internal representations emerge across hierarchical processing systems by introducing a neuroscience-inspired framework for analyzing deep spiking neural networks (SNN) through the lens of functional connectivity. Drawing on concepts from systems neuroscience and information theory, we form the first-order functionally-connected (1FC) group of a neuron based on its statistically significant pairwise correlations with neurons from the previous layer of a trained SNN architecture. We then track its response properties during inference under various conditions. Our analysis shows that several principles of functional connectivity previously observed in biological cortex are preserved in spiking ResNet architectures. These 1FC ensembles display interesting properties: their aggregate cofiring reliably predicts downstream neuronal responses through a robust, ReLU-like input-output relationship, whose gain scales systematically with ensemble size. Reliable encoding of the presented class emerges only during high 1FC cofiring events, which themselves occur infrequently, indicating that informative representations are concentrated in rare but highly coordinated activity patterns. Under uniform random noise or adversarial perturbations, these response profiles are disrupted, particularly in early and intermediate layers. This enables a targeted high-resolution interrogation at specific nodes and pathways. We showed that the functional connectivity structure is shaped by learning and this structure breaks under weight permutation. These establish 1FC ensembles as a functionally meaningful substrate for input encoding and information transfer, with potential implications in designing targeted fine-grained diagnostics on the information flow.
Aditi Aravind, Konstantinos Ladakis, Mario Alexios Savaglio +2
May 21, 2026cs.LG

Factored Diffusion Policies:Compositionally Generalized Robot Control with a Single Score Network

Robotic tasks are typically specified by a tuple of factors, such as the object to be grasped, the obstacles to be avoided, the color of the target, and so on. Collecting expert demonstrations for every combination of factor values grows combinatorially. We present factored diffusion policies: a single shared diffusion network trained with per-factor null-token dropout, whose score decomposes additively across factors at inference. Under approximate conditional independence between factors given the action-observation pair, this composition approximates the true joint score with a bounded uniform error, reducing the training-task budget from a product of factor cardinalities to a sum. A trajectory-tube certificate chains this score-level bound through the reverse-time sampling ODE and a contracting tracking controller into a closed-loop state-trajectory tube whose radius factors into an ODE-sensitivity constant and a per-factor score-error budget. Unlike compositional-diffusion methods for control that combine separately trained networks, we use one shared network. Drone racing experiments confirm both the generalization bound and the certificate. On state-based multi-gate racing, the factored policy passes 90% of held-out gates -- matching an oracle -- while a K-network composition baseline collapses to 3%; on vision-based single-gate traversal, it transfers zero-shot to an unseen venue with +11.7pp success-rate gain and 2.4X crash-rate reduction.
Sayan Mitra, Ege Yuceel, Noah Giles +1
May 21, 2026cs.CV

Mode-as-Sequence: Translating Multimodal Motion Prediction into Unified Sequential Mode Modeling

Multimodal motion forecasting is inherently under-supervised: each training scene provides only one realized future, yet multiple plausible futures exist. This sparse supervision often leads to mode collapse (redundant hypotheses and insufficient mode coverage) and unreliable confidence ranking when predicting a small set of trajectories. We propose Mode-as-Sequence, a unified decoding framework that translates an unordered mode set into an ordered mode sequence and explicitly models mode-to-mode dependency. Under this framework, we develop two complementary instantiations. ModeSeq performs recurrent mode decoding, where each mode is generated conditioned on the previously generated modes, encouraging diverse, non-redundant hypotheses with calibrated confidence ordering. To remove the mode-by-mode autoregressive bottleneck, we further propose Parallel ModeSeq, which preserves the same causal dependency using masked mode-to-mode self-attention while decoding all modes in a single forward pass, enabling efficient large-KK inference and scalable joint-scene prediction. To learn representative modes and calibrated confidence under sparse labels, we introduce Early-Match-Take-All (EMTA) and its joint-scene extension MA-EMTA, together with a lightweight ranking regularizer that reduces confidence inversions. Extensive experiments on large-scale benchmarks demonstrate consistent improvements in both ranking-oriented metrics and best-of-K accuracy across datasets, horizons, and object types. In the Waymo Open Dataset challenges, ModeSeq achieves 1st place in the 2024 LiDAR-free motion prediction track, and Parallel ModeSeq achieves 1st place in the 2025 Interaction Prediction Challenge, validating the effectiveness of Mode-as-Sequence for both accuracy and efficiency.
Zikang Zhou, Haibo Hu, Xinhong Chen +5
May 21, 2026cs.RO

Extending Deep Event Visual Odometry with Sparse Point-Cloud Export

Event cameras are well suited for visual odometry under high-speed motion and challenging lighting conditions due to their low latency, high temporal resolution, and high dynamic range. Deep Event Visual Odometry (DEVO) demonstrated that monocular event-only odometry can achieve strong performance by combining sparse patch tracking, learned patch selection, recurrent correspondence refinement, and differentiable bundle adjustment. In this project, we extend DEVO with a sparse point-cloud export pipeline. Rather than modifying the core odometry formulation, our approach exposes the internal 3D structure already estimated by DEVO and converts it into an explicit point-cloud representation for visualization and further processing. In addition, we implement a practical workflow for data export, format conversion, and point-cloud cleanup. The resulting system preserves the original visual odometry pipeline while enabling sparse geometric scene output. Experiments on the BOARD SLOW sequence show that the exported sparse cloud is locally consistent with EMVS reconstructions, achieving high precision at a 5 cm threshold, while also highlighting the expected limitations in density, completeness, and sensitivity to accumulated odometry noise.
Alireza Safdari, Sajad Ashraf