AI-Assisted Decision Making

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12 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 91

Oct 7, 2026cs.CL

InsClaimBench: Benchmarking Insurance Claim Adjudication Across the Decision Chain

Recent advances in reasoning-oriented large language models (LLMs) have motivated increasing evaluation of their ability to perform professional decision tasks. Insurance claim adjudication is one such task, requiring models to connect case evidence, insurance rules, intermediate judgments, and payout calculations across a structured decision process. We introduce InsClaimBench, an end-to-end benchmark for evaluating insurance claim adjudication across the decision chain. Grounded in real claim materials and structured insurance rules, InsClaimBench contains 3,780 cases in 375 case families across auto, property, and health insurance, comprising 86,656 atomic rule judgments. It evaluates each claim from atomic rules through adjudication modules to payout decisions and amounts, with controlled factual variants testing whether required changes are correctly propagated across levels. Evaluation of six LLMs reveals a progressive loss of reliability along the decision chain. Payout-decision accuracy ranges from 74.23--80.19%, while joint decision--amount accuracy drops to 47.54--73.15%. Strong local performance also fails to ensure case-level correctness: atomic-rule accuracy reaches 95.48%, whereas rule-vector exact match peaks at only 36.90%, and the most frequent module errors are not necessarily those most associated with final-decision failure. Under factual changes, these inconsistencies further become propagation failures: module updates are less reliable than rule updates, correct local judgments can still yield incorrect payouts, and correct payouts can conceal intermediate errors. These results show that reliable claim adjudication requires consistent composition and propagation across the decision chain.
Oct 7, 2026cs.HC

Structured pre-generation elicitation versus single-shot prompting in AI-assisted enterprise decision-making: a randomised online experiment

Generative AI speeds, and mostly improves, professional work, but there is concern that users who delegate both the production and the evaluation of an answer may accept weak output and engage less with the underlying reasoning (cognitive surrender). Interventions proposed so far, such as unassisted practice or slowing adoption, sit outside the working task. We tested a different approach: an interactive metacognitive scaffolding layer (Cognistance, a prototype developed at the Oxford Centre for Impact Research (OCIR) that asks users to clarify context, choose a strategic direction and explain their reasoning before the AI generates a deliverable). Mean composite quality was 32% higher with the scaffold, with the same direction for every rater. Gains were largest for trade-off articulation and strategic coherence and absent for technical specificity. A large part of the aggregate effect reflected rescue of weak prompts: floor-scored (off-task) deliverables fell from 34% to 5%. Among participants whose own prompt already stated the data-localisation problem, the advantage was 21%. Treatment participants reported greater involvement and took about 2.4 minutes longer on average (10.46 minutes). Immediate recall scores were higher, which tentatively suggests better retention, but in this limited experiment, was not robust to sensitivity analyses. Self-ratings of quality did not track rated quality in either condition. Structured elicitation before generation improved the rated quality and task relevance of AI-assisted strategy documents at modest cost in time. Delayed retention, error detection and effects in live organisations are the priorities for the next stage of research.
Oct 7, 2026cs.AI

Dual- versus Single-Suggestion AI Support for Radiographic Interpretation in Residents: Randomized Multireader Study

Purpose: To compare dual- and single-suggestion AI support for radiographic interpretation by residents, particularly when the shared AI suggestion was incorrect. Materials and Methods: This prospective, multicenter, randomized three-arm reader study was conducted at three hospitals in China from July to September 2026 (ChiCTR2600129243). After specialty stratification, 132 residents with fewer than 3 years of clinical experience were randomized 1:1:1 to GPT-5.4 alone (group A), GPT-5.4 plus Kimi-K2.6 (group B), or GPT-5.4 plus Gemini-3.6 Flash (group C); 123 were analyzed. Participants interpreted 60 radiographs before and after AI support. The primary outcome was accuracy change. Welch ANOVA and Holm-adjusted t tests compared support conditions; HC3 linear models assessed specialty interaction. Results: Among 123 residents (mean age, 24.1 years +/- 1.4; 65 women), radiology residents showed greater accuracy improvement with dual- than single-suggestion support (B-A, 6.69 percentage points [95% CI, 0.97-12.40]; C-A, 7.87 percentage points [95% CI, 1.64-14.11]; Holm-adjusted P = .030 for both), whereas accuracy change did not differ in non-radiology residents (P = .20). When GPT-5.4 was incorrect, AI-assisted accuracy was higher with dual- than single-suggestion support in radiology residents (40.1% and 40.4% vs 20.0%) and non-radiology residents (31.3% and 31.0% vs 12.1%) (all Holm-adjusted P < .001). The dual-suggestion effect differed by specialty (interaction difference, 10.44 percentage points; 95% CI, 4.36-16.52; P < .001). Conclusion: Dual-suggestion support may mitigate the influence of erroneous AI suggestions, with greater accuracy improvement observed in radiology but not non-radiology residents.
Sep 29, 2026cs.AI

EnterpriseBench: Benchmarking LLM Agents on Enterprise-Level Strategic Reasoning and Decision-Making

LLM agents are increasingly expected to support enterprise workflows, where tasks often involve missing information, uncertainty, feedback, and long-term trade-offs. However, existing enterprise and financial benchmarks mainly test static capabilities such as information extraction, numerical calculation, domain knowledge, and financial QA, leaving interactive and long-horizon decision-making underexplored. To bridge this gap, we introduce EnterpriseBench, a benchmark that evaluates LLM agents across this spectrum, from static question answering to dynamic decision-making. Specifically, EnterpriseBench reorganizes existing enterprise and financial QA datasets into a unified foundational suite annotated by capability and difficulty, and introduces three professional interactive settings: Consulting, based on management-consulting-style business cases for client problem diagnosis through multi-turn information seeking; the Beer Game, adapted from a classic supply-chain management simulation for inventory control under delayed feedback; and Enterprise Digital Twin, a project-based business simulator for workforce, risk, and project planning. Experiments with nine agent methods under four backbone models show that current agents have not yet achieved stable, comprehensive, and cross-task reliability in enterprise scenarios. These results show that EnterpriseBench provides a practical benchmark for evaluating LLM agents in realistic enterprise strategic reasoning and decision-making.
Sep 29, 2026cs.CL

CredWise: A Controlled Agentic Decision-Intelligence Framework for Explainable and Auditable Credit-Risk Assessment

Credit-risk prediction is important in banking, but a prediction alone does not explain why an applicant is risky or how it should be combined with other evidence. This paper presents CredWise, a decision-support framework that integrates credit-risk prediction, probability calibration, explainable artificial intelligence, policy retrieval, SQL analytics, and controlled agent-based workflows. An XGBoost model is trained on Lending Club data (1,345,310 loans, 18 features) using a temporal split: 2007--2016 for training, 2017 for validation, and 2018 for testing. On the 2018 test set, the calibrated model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.7109, PR-AUC of 0.2993, F1-score of 0.3714, and accuracy of 65.44%. Calibration reduced the Brier score from 0.2157 to 0.1273 and the expected calibration error from 0.2862 to 0.0585. SHAP explanations were temporally stable, with a Spearman correlation of 0.9959 between 2017 and 2018 feature rankings. On 28 labeled queries covering nine policy sections, FAISS achieved the best Hit@1 (0.929) and MRR (0.964), while all three retrieval methods reached Hit@5 = 1.0. Agent routing achieved 95.6% accuracy (43 of 45 cases), and the SQL benchmark scored 1.0 on exact-match, execution-success, and result-match across six cases. These results show that CredWise can combine predictions, explanations, policy evidence, and structured analytics in one controlled workflow. It is an academic research prototype, and final decisions remain with a human reviewer.
Sep 27, 2026cs.AI

Scalable and Data-Driven Decision Support in the Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul Process

Several businesses apply maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) principles to the life-cycle of their existing products. In cases like casted gas turbine component Product Lifecycle Management (PLM), repairing components in frequent intervals can extend the lifetime expectation of the product, provide higher cost efficiency compared to newly produced components, and even improve the part design during the repair cycle. Another aspect of repair concerns sustainability, as products often contain rare materials. The emissions produced by the repair process are usually smaller than mining materials and casting new components. To optimize the repair process further, we propose the Smart Expert System (SES), which assists engineering experts with machine learning-based decision support throughout the repair process. We elaborate on its IT architecture and present machine learning models employed for representative MRO use cases. The SES is evaluated using actual industry data from a leading gas turbine company and demonstrably fulfills formulated requirements concerning the suitability of the overall decision support and the stability of the enclosing IT architecture.
Sep 22, 2026cs.HC

Deflecting the Value Compass: Interacting with Large Language Models Temporarily Shifts Human Value Priorities Toward Personal Focus

Large language models increasingly support decisions where values are in tension, yet little is known about whether interacting with them changes which values users prioritize. In a preregistered study, 200 U.S. adults interacted with ChatGPT, Claude, or Gemini as a thinking partner or read fixed AI-generated considerations. The prompt asked LLMs to support reasoning without recommending a decision and named no values. Participants advised people facing real dilemmas and completed parallel PVQ-RR forms before, immediately after, and one task later. Each LLM condition temporarily shifted value priorities toward personal focus relative to the control (d=0.37-0.51), primarily through increased Self-Enhancement. Participants' advice retained words and meaning from their exchanges. Thus, a brief LLM interaction that neither targets values nor seeks to persuade can reorient values active during judgment without detectable convergence in value directions or advice.
Sep 17, 2026cs.AI

A Proposal for an Agentic AI Architecture to Support Multi-Domain Decision-Making in the Brazilian Armed Forces

The growing complexity of multi-domain operational environments (land, aerospace, naval, cyber, and electromagnetic spectrum) has increased the volume and velocity of data reaching command-and-control (C2) centers, straining the observe-orient-decide-act (OODA) decision cycle. Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems currently employed in defense are, in general, reactive and isolated tools that still rely heavily on human operators to integrate information, assess scenarios, and formulate courses of action. This paper proposes a conceptual Agentic AI architecture for AI systems that can plan, access data sources, execute tools, and act autonomously and audibly, aimed at supporting decision-making across the three Brazilian Armed Forces (Navy, Army, and Air Force). Four application fronts are discussed (decision support, situational analysis, feasibility studies, and countermeasure suggestion), as well as the data and sensor access requirements and the security and permission safeguards necessary for responsible employment across administrative, strategic, operational, and tactical contexts.
Sep 17, 2026cs.AI

When Hiring Becomes Agent-Mediated: Evaluating Access and Recurrence in Two-Agent Résumé Screening

Hiring is bilateral: employers assess fit, while candidates present and defend evidence of their qualifications. Yet résumé screening, the first gate, is commonly automated as a static, one-call judgment over a résumé-job pair. We study a two-agent alternative in which employer-side and candidate-side agents represent these roles, exchange evidence, and update their judgments before deciding who advances. We compare procedures on 600 constructed résumé-job pairs using GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.7. Two-agent screening advances more applications (33.3% to 39.3% for GPT-5.5; 34.0% to 35.5% for Opus 4.7). Across three runs on the common 191-pair borderline pool, pass-instance rates rise from 4.5% to 26.2% and from 6.5% to 16.1%, respectively. This is not a uniform relaxation: two-agent screening rejects applications one-call advances, changing decisions in both directions. At similar pass volumes, the procedures advance different applications, and no one-call threshold recovers applications consistently selected by two-agent screening. Among discovery-selected cases re-executed in fresh runs, two-agent-only selections recur less often than shared selections, clearly under GPT-5.5 and less certainly under Opus 4.7, while a separate one-call follow-up shows no comparable decline. As hiring becomes agent-mediated on both sides, the screening procedure, not only the model behind it, shapes who reaches human review and how reliably that access recurs.
Sep 16, 2026cs.LG

F-DACE: Fuzzy Disagreement-Aware Causal Evidence Fusion for Abstention-Safe Conversational Retail Decision Support

Observational decision-support systems often expose one causal estimate as a recommendation even when plausible estimators disagree. The inherent engine of the proposed system is causal machine learning: a conditional-average-treatment-effect estimand identified by backdoor adjustment, estimated by an EconML DML causal forest and DoWhy linear regression, checked by two-way fixed effects, and converted into candidate levers by constrained optimisation. F-DACE is the decision layer on that engine. It represents precision, propensity overlap, placebo-refutation stability, interval overlap, and directional agreement as fuzzy memberships. Hard vetoes force abstention after estimand mismatch, failed diagnostics, informative sign conflict, or weak evidence. In 180 panel simulations spanning six identification conditions, F-DACE made a decision in 67.2% of runs and limited false recommendations to 17.2%; the corresponding rates were 33.3% for the causal forest and 35.6% for backdoor regression, matching deterministic unanimity rather than dominating it. Nearly all (30 of 31) false recommendations occurred under shared unmeasured confounding, which no fusion rule can diagnose when every component shares the omitted variable. The retail application aggregates a public Walmart panel to 6,435 store-weeks across 45 stores. F-DACE abstains for all five markdown indicators: some estimates are imprecise, one refutation fails, and MarkDown5 has a direct sign conflict. A LangGraph conversational agent exposes impact, what-if, and lever-optimization tools while a deterministic verifier preserves causal-layer status. On 24 live questions it achieved 100.0% tool-routing accuracy, 100.0% status fidelity, and 0.983 mean groundedness. On ten adversarial questions it resisted all injected instructions.
Sep 16, 2026cs.CL

Linguistic Triggers of Gender and Racial Bias in Open-Weight LLMs Applied to Recruitment

Open-weight large language models are rapidly entering hiring pipelines, yet their discriminatory failure modes -- and the regulatory exposure these create under the EU AI Act high-risk classification (Annex III) and U.S. EEOC adverse-impact analysis -- remain poorly understood. We present the first systematic, multi-model audit of open-weight LLMs that treats job-posting language as the primary experimental variable, evaluating six models (Llama 3.2, Mistral, Gemma 3, Qwen 3, Phi 3, DeepSeek-R1) across four controlled experiments that jointly probe recruiter-simulation and job-seeker-simulation tasks. We find that (1) agentic posting language depresses recruiter recommendation scores for female candidates (r_rb = 0.309, p_Bonf = 7x10^-5; model-fixed-effects r_rb = 0.448), while communal language partially reverses the penalty; and (2) coded-exclusion language suppresses non-White recruiter scores at large effect sizes (r_rb = 0.646-0.758) and, on the job-seeker side, selectively deters non-White personas from expressing interest -- operationalizing a chilling-effect mechanism at scale. A label-ablation experiment isolates the explicit demographic persona label as the primary causal driver, and Word Embedding Association Tests corroborate these findings at the representational level (d = 1.01-1.45 under Caliskan et al.'s multi-word gender attribute lists). We translate these results into a concrete pre-deployment audit protocol -- posting-vocabulary scoring, persona-conditioned LLM probing, and adverse-impact flagging against the four-fifths threshold -- that operationalizes the documentation and risk-management obligations Annex III imposes on high-risk AI in recruitment.
Sep 14, 2026cs.AI

From Ideas to Actions: A Public-Data Decision-Support Toolchain Across the Venture Lifecycle

Founders face two linked decisions: whether to pursue an idea before founding, and which operating actions and capital partners fit afterward. We present a public-data decision-support toolchain combining time-bounded proposal profiling, market and moat checks, and deterministic aggregation with auditable investor-company event chains for retrospective analysis. Pre-founding: (a) After threshold selection on 198 development companies, the frozen pipeline achieves F0.5=0.5357 [0.412, 0.655] on an independent, row-disjoint 198-company validation sample. On the combined 396 rows, the Full Pipeline scores 0.6301 versus 0.2734 for a paired Raw LLM baseline. Post-stratification of 1,027 completed cases in a separate scale cohort yields 0.6506 [0.598, 0.707]; the run remains incomplete. A 377-row composition-matched check yields 0.6573. (b) The AI-inference study identifies distribution-layer businesses as a replicable path to independent profitability with a limited revenue ceiling, and frontier-model ownership as a path to capital-market upside at exceptional capital cost. Post-founding: (a) Public sources support auditable event-chain analysis. (b) In the chip-company study, sustained product, customer, and supply-chain progress is associated with better observed outcomes; financing alone does not establish operating progress. (c) Financing comprises 79% of confirmed visible post-investment actions. Evidence tentatively favors acquisition-experienced strategic corporate investors for acquisition-oriented founders and financing-led institutional VCs with fewer observed control events for independence-oriented founders. Findings are developmental and observational, not causal guarantees or investment advice. We release shared ontology, provenance-bearing EventChain data, schemas, benchmarks, and executable skills for audit, reuse, and extension.
Sep 12, 2026cs.AI

Agentic Share-of-Search: A Multi-Agent AI System for Competitive Decision-Making in LLM-Mediated E-Commerce

AI shopping assistants increasingly redirect consumer discovery, creating an urgent need for tools that support seller-side competitive decision-making. We present a multi-agent AI system that automates competitive visibility measurement and root cause diagnosis in LLM-mediated ecommerce. The system introduces Agentic Share-of-Search (ASoS) as the decision target, deploys query agents across leading AI platforms, and uses a ReAct-based diagnostic agent to recommend prioritized merchandising interventions. A 100-trial ablation study, presented as a feasibility evaluation of this prototype, shows the agent recovers the ablated signal in 39% of trials (95% CI: 30.0% - 48.8%, 5.5x over chance), rising to 63.9% among high-correlation ablations.
Sep 12, 2026cs.HC

Understanding Operator Attitudes Toward AI-Supported Decision Making in Maritime Operations

Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS) and AI- supported decision assistants are expected to transform maritime operations, but their safe integration depends on how maritime professionals perceive and trust such systems. This paper presents a survey study on maritime stakeholders' attitudes toward an AI-supported assistant in collision-avoidance scenarios. Participants evaluated technology anxiety, trust in automation, and explanation quality using established and adapted questionnaires, complemented by sentiment and thematic analysis of open-ended responses Results indicate a generally positive disposition toward maritime technology, no clear age-related differences in openness, stable trust across scenarios, and more scenario-sensitive, multidimensional explanation ratings. Open responses showed that participants valued support for decision-making, situation awareness, and confidence-building, while raising concerns about AI reliability, over- reliance and loss of expertise. The findings suggest that maritime AI systems should not focus solely on increasing automation or trust, but on supporting calibrated reliance through transparent, reliable, and operationally meaningful design with domain experts in the loop.
Sep 7, 2026cs.AI

ERPBench: Evaluating LLM Agents for Enterprise Decision-Making Across Competitive Market Ecologies

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly proposed for enterprise workflows, yet existing evaluations rarely test whether business-decision conclusions transfer across competitive market ecologies. We introduce ERPBench, an execution-instrumented benchmark for enterprise decision agents in a six-round Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) simulation with coupled pricing, production, procurement, inventory, finance, and shared-market competition. ERPBench evaluates the same 100 fixed problems in two matched competitive market ecologies: Solo, where each evaluated LLM agent competes against fixed rule-based opponents, and Arena, where six evaluated LLM agents compete in a shared market. Across six model families, this yields 1,200 model-level trajectories spanning 7,200 decision rounds. Under the observed service configuration, the leading model differs between ecologies: DeepSeek leads in Solo (252.29M mean valuation; mean rank 1.67), whereas Gemini leads in Arena (263.95M; 1.76). The two ecologies identify the same task-level winner on only 21 of 100 problems, and Gemini's bottom-rank rate falls from 22 % to 0 % in Arena. ERPBench supports paired evaluation of whether enterprise-agent rankings transfer across competitive market ecologies, supplemented by aggregate execution-intervention analysis. Code and benchmark resources are available in our https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/erp-bench.
Sep 2, 2026cs.AI

Beyond Outcome Gaps: Process-Aware Fairness Diagnosis for LLM-based Multi-Agent Decision Systems

LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly considered for high-stakes decision-making, yet outcome-based fairness audits can miss where risks arise within the decision trajectory. We present SCOPED-Hiring, a process-aware fairness diagnosis pipeline for LLM-based hiring MAS. SCOPED-Hiring constructs controlled resume variants, runs role-based hiring committees, logs over 311K structured decision trajectories, and converts trajectory fields into quantitative fairness signals organized by six diagnostic lenses: final outcome, counterfactual, process, pathway, dynamic, and design effects. SCOPED-Hiring reveals that balanced final hire rates can mask hidden trajectory unfairness in multi-agent decision trajectories: career gaps trigger suspicion, proxy cues shape qualification judgments, and identity cues lead to unequal investigation. Targeted repair guided by these diagnoses reduces total layered burden by 72.3% while shifting the hire rate by only 1.86 pp, showing that process diagnosis can guide effective repair. Project Page: https://scoped-hiring-project-page.vercel.app/
Sep 1, 2026cs.CY

A Mathematical Framework for Legacy, Governance, and Decision Integrity in Enterprise AI

Enterprise artificial intelligence is increasingly embedded in decisions that must remain lawful, explainable, adaptable, and accountable despite personnel turnover, model replacement, regulatory change, and shifting organizational incentives. Existing governance frameworks provide important principles but do not by themselves supply a compact mathematical language for evaluating whether an institution can preserve sound judgment over time. This paper develops a design-science framework for institutional legacy: the durable capacity of a decision system to continue producing beneficial, lawful, explainable, and adaptable outcomes after its original designers have stepped away. The framework contributes: (i) a normalized Legacy Score based on a penalized geometric mean of knowledge retention, governance, human oversight, adaptability, feedback learning, and jurisdictional fidelity; (ii) Decision Confidence and Decision Risk models separating evidentiary confidence from consequence; (iii) authority-aware retrieval and calibrated abstention; (iv) Decision Memory for governed organizational learning; (v) Regulatory Change Velocity mapping change exposure to review intervals; and (vi) a federated regulatory knowledge-graph architecture preserving provenance and legal hierarchy. The paper also proposes eight AI Decision Integrity Rules, an evaluation protocol, and a reproducible computational demonstration. The demonstration combines a deterministic stress test with 200 Monte Carlo replications of 10,000 synthetic decisions each, illustrating Legacy Score non-compensation and comparing consequence- and authority-aware routing with a matched-coverage confidence-only baseline. The contribution remains conceptual rather than field-validated; the simulation tests internal behavior, not production performance, and all parameters require context-specific calibration.
Aug 13, 2026cs.AI

Designing AI Pipelines for Decision-Ready ITSM Intelligence

IT service management (ITSM) systems accumulate large volumes of heterogeneous ticket data that are difficult for sales and executive stakeholders to convert into actionable intelligence. This paper presents a sociotechnical AI pipeline, designed and evaluated following design science research principles, that transforms raw ITSM exports into a multilevel decision-support artifact. The pipeline combines LLM-based schema normalization, HDBSCAN sub-topic clustering, and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to generate executive-facing Main-topics and granular Sub-topics. A stakeholder evaluation across six artifacts and five raters from Sales Engineering and customer success roles shows that all four decision-support metrics, interpretability, actionability, trust, and likelihood of use, on average exceed 4.0 out of 5.0, with trust as the most consistent signal. The findings position ITSM analytics as an Information Systems (IS) problem of transformation, abstraction, and human-centered design.
Aug 12, 2026cs.CY

Co-constructing sociotechnical AI governance: participatory system mapping using algorithm registers

Algorithm registers have been championed as a means of providing transparency on the use of algorithms in public services. Yet potential publics differ in their expectations of what should be made transparent and how, as well as in their interest in and ability to parse the information currently published in the registers. Moreover, it remains unclear how these instruments can represent the sociotechnical systems in which these algorithms are embedded, and how system-level transparency can facilitate accountability. In this paper, we ask, what do algorithm registers reveal (and occlude) about the sociotechnical systems governing algorithmic systems, and how can diverse stakeholder perspectives inform a more pluralistic system-theoretic safety analysis? To do this, we probe the municipal algorithm register of a Dutch city through a case study of a decision-support tool for caseworkers' assessment of citizens' welfare benefits eligibility based on legal automation through a business rule engine. Through interviews, surveys, and participatory system mapping workshops (with municipal staff, civil society organisations, and ombudsmen, N=8), we seek to understand to what extent the register allows stakeholders to map the algorithmic system in question. These maps inform a System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) that situates the register within a wider sociotechnical governance structure. Participants' contributions allow us to identify potential safety hazards which would not have been possible to see using the algorithm register alone, including benefits eligibility denial, system performance deterioration, and inability to contest wrongful decisions. By engaging both direct and indirect stakeholders, we reflect on the normative dimensions of algorithm governance efforts and how politics shape the practice of system safety analysis.
Aug 12, 2026cs.CL

GRPO for Financial Advice Generation: Outperforming Commercial LLMs under CATE Evaluation

Generating actionable financial advice from business records demands that models integrate numerical reasoning, domain knowledge, and sound judgment, while avoiding recommendations that could harm the business. Direct supervision is difficult: historical decisions are not necessarily optimal, and high-quality free-form labels are expensive to obtain. We formulate financial advice generation as a reinforcement learning problem and fine-tune an open-weight language model using Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). Our reward is an LLM-as-a-judge rubric that scores each recommendation across multiple binary dimensions of advice quality, augmented with a safety gate for harm prevention. Since LLM-based evaluation alone cannot confirm whether improvements reflect genuine business value rather than adaptation to the judge, we complement it with a judge-independent audit based on a standard doubly-robust Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimator. Under this observational off-policy audit, our trained LLM achieves approximately twice the estimated gross-profit lift of the strongest evaluated commercial baseline (0.02280.0228 vs.\ 0.01040.0104), together with the lowest downside rate and the least negative tail risk of any policy evaluated. Notably, the two evaluations do not rank the baselines identically: the untrained base model places last on the judge rubric but second on the causal audit, indicating that the audit captures a signal the judge does not. Our results demonstrate that GRPO with a finance-grounded reward signal can produce substantially more useful business recommendations than commercial LLMs, and that a judge-independent causal audit is a valuable complement to, rather than a confirmation of, LLM-as-a-judge assessment in financial NLP.
Aug 10, 2026stat.AP

Status Association Does Not Reliably Predict Decision Leakage

Bias evaluations often move too quickly from evidence that a model encodes a social association to claims that the same association will alter consequential decisions. We test whether that inference is warranted using Chilean surnames as controlled socioeconomic probes. We evaluate eight frozen model-provider cells on 1,032 prompts each, yielding 8,256 verified primary responses. The design separates forced latent association from matched consequential decisions across academic selection, professional hiring, research fellowship selection, and legal-aid intake. Elite-coded surnames received higher forced high-status probability mass than common surnames in seven of eight models and higher mass than rare-frequency controls in all eight. Yet elite-minus-common decision effects were close to zero for most systems. Five models were statistically equivalent within a predeclared (Plus-Minus)0.10 standard-deviation margin, while the remaining three were imprecise or borderline, with no consistent elite advantage. Association strength did not reliably predict decision leakage across models (r = 0.201, p = 0.633) or across frozen surname-pair-by-model cells (r = 0.065, p = 0.565). The central result is a measurement dissociation: latent social association and consequential treatment are empirically distinct constructs. Evaluations should measure the transition from association to action directly.
Aug 9, 2026cs.LG

When Can Fraud Operations Authorize Automation? A Decision-Support Framework for Fresh Audit Evidence and Review Workload

Fraud operations must allocate events among automatic approval, analyst review, and automatic blocking even though the labels needed to evaluate these actions are selective and delayed. Predictive scores order cases, but they do not show whether the evidence is current and representative enough to delegate an action to the model. We develop freshness-constrained audit capacity (FCAC), a decision-support framework that treats automation as an authorization decision constrained by action risk, evidence freshness, and shared review capacity. It evaluates candidate action regions from mature randomized audits and a prespecified temporal allowance. Supported regions are automated; unsupported regions remain in review. The resulting decision record reports evidence age, audit demand, total review workload, value exposure, and compatible temporal change. We show that current action risk is unidentified without restricting unobserved label evolution. Under representative randomized audits, label-independent evidence windows, and a prespecified condition linking historical and current action risk, we derive simultaneous finite-sample control of unsafe authorization. Chronological evaluations with simulated audits on IEEE-CIS, ULB-Worldline, and Elliptic++ yield zero-drift automation rates of 84.4%, 67.4%, and 81.3%, with total review workloads of 24.1%, 46.0%, and 43.1%. The experiments reveal an audit-capacity trade-off: sparse auditing delays authorization, whereas intensive auditing eventually increases workload. A separately specified BAF stress test further indicates that fallback thresholds must reflect candidate-specific evidence rather than a common fraction of the risk limit. These findings identify audit freshness and analyst capacity as joint design considerations for fraud decision support.
Aug 7, 2026cs.DB

Toward a Causal Data Management Ecosystem for Decision Making and Agentic AI

Modern AI is no longer a single model but an ecosystem: classical ML predictors, deep and multimodal models, large language models, and agents, each trained and tuned over different data sources and each producing outputs at scale that become inputs to the others. Operating such an ecosystem is fundamentally a data integration problem - the knowledge it depends on is fragmented across dozens of heterogeneous, independently governed sources that must be reconciled and continually maintained. Yet integration alone is not enough. The predictions these systems make are shaped by many interacting factors, and the events, decisions, and variables that drive an outcome are routinely entangled with the ones that merely accompany it; treated as a basis for action, such correlational signals invite confounded decisions. This becomes acute once agents act autonomously: to be trustworthy and reliable, an agent must anticipate the consequences of its actions, not merely extrapolate from what has co-occurred before. Causal reasoning is what closes this gap, distinguishing the drivers of an outcome from its correlates, and enabling prescriptive and counterfactual analysis over the ecosystem's data. We therefore argue that the integrated ecosystem needs an explicit causal layer, and we propose to build it as a shared, persistent, queryable Causal World System (CWS).
Aug 6, 2026cs.AI

Evaluating Investment Logic in Large Language Models: A Real-World Benchmark Towards Personalzied Financial Agents

Investment competence is inherently personalized: the same market evidence can justify different actions for investors with different goals, horizons, portfolios, and risk boundaries. Yet financial LLMs are evaluated either by static question answering or by terminal profit and loss. The former omits agency; the latter cannot reveal whether a profitable action was grounded, profile-consistent, or merely lucky. We ask whether the community is using the wrong ruler for consequential agents. We introduce \textsc{InvestLogicBench}, a process-native benchmark containing 201,247 documented decisions from 151 real-world investors. Each episode instantiates a \textbf{P→\rightarrowE→\rightarrowR→\rightarrowD→\rightarrowO} trace: investor \textit{Profile}, observable market \textit{Events}, investment \textit{Reasoning}, executable \textit{Decision}, and delayed \textit{Outcome}. The release includes profile construction, point-in-time event binding, structured logic, horizons, outcomes, and post-mortems, and supports comprehension, profile-conditioned generation, and end-to-end replay. Across four leading LLMs, logical plausibility remains near 4/5 while event grounding is only 0.8--2.8/5; return and process quality also disagree. These results expose polished but weakly grounded reasoning that outcome-only evaluation hides. We further argue that P→\rightarrowE→\rightarrowR→\rightarrowD→\rightarrowO should be a data-system interface, requiring versioned profiles, temporal provenance, inspectable retrieval, decision ledgers, and replayable outcomes. Finance is our stress test for a broader class of personalized, consequential agents.
Aug 4, 2026cs.AI

ADMITBench: A Safety-Governed Reference Framework for Evaluating the Admissibility of Industrial LLM Advisories

This white paper presents ADMITBench, a reference framework for evaluating industrial LLM advisories at the level of the proposed action. The framework implements a versioned, safety-governed evaluation contract that checks whether a recommendation is supported by the available evidence, permitted under the stated authority and procedure, and acceptable under the plant-specific consequence checks encoded in the selected evaluation profile. In this report, \emph{safety-governed} means that eligibility is determined through explicit, non-compensatory checks derived from a versioned plant profile; it does not mean that the evaluator, model, or plant has been safety-certified. Release 0.1.0 is a public reference implementation for technical and research evaluation, not an authorisation for physical execution.
Aug 4, 2026cs.AI

Enactive Artificial Intelligence: A Decision-Centric Architecture for Complex Systems

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to evolve and mature, recent AI practices have moved beyond large language models (LLMs) and text or image generation tasks, increasingly integrating tools, agents, and harnesses to solve real business and industrial problems. However, the power of AI is not verified under these real-world complex systems for various reasons, considering reliability, feasibility, resilience, and responsibility requirements in real commercial and industrial operations. This study synthesizes adjacent research and introduces Enactive AI as a conceptual framework for enterprise and industry reasoning, site-level decision support, and execution feedback. Four complementary roles organize the framework: an Organizational World defines operations management logic and an organizational behavior world model behind an enterprise from a strategic-institutional horizon; a Site World defines a physically bounded industrial optimization and execution world model from an operational-realization horizon; Schema Intelligence provides the coupling mechanism between two world models to weave various AI applications via two models; and Enactive Decision Cycle triggers the self-evolving dynamic process to update and audit the entire framework. By foregrounding decision intelligence in complex systems, Enactive AI expands the frontier of AI from model capability to system-aware action, opening new possibilities for scalable, governable, and socially valuable AI deployment. Enactive AI points toward a future in which AI progress is measured not only by what models can generate or automate, but by how reliably intelligent systems can support consequential action, responsible governance, and durable social value in the complex systems that shape modern life, which we believe will define the next frontier of AI research for enterprise-level and industrial complex systems.
Aug 3, 2026cs.CL

PredAct-Bench: Benchmarking Tool-Augmented Dialogue under Controlled Tool Noise

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in task-oriented dialogue systems that support multi-step decision-making in high-stakes domains such as education, healthcare, and finance. However, existing benchmarks typically assume perfectly accurate tool outputs, overlooking the reality that deployed systems must operate with noisy tools and human decision-makers whose trust in the agent is itself uncertain. Such conditions are common in practice, for example, a clinician using a diagnostic prediction tool or an advisor relying on a model that forecasts student outcomes from historical records. We introduce PREDACTBENCH, a benchmark for evaluating dialogue agents paired with statistically imperfect tools, using education as a measurable testbed where ground truth outcomes and clear intervention decisions are available. First, we build a benchmark for AI-assisted human decision-making, where the AI uses noisy predictors to help guide a user. Second, we introduce episode-level Relative AI-Reliance (RAIR) and Relative self-reliance (RSR) metrics, extending prior trust calibration framework to multi-turn dialogue. Third, we evaluate 13 state-of-the-art closed and open source LLMs on two educational datasets, OULAD (real assessment trajectories from the UK Open University) and PREDACT-CS (60 courses with real final grade outcomes and synthetically generated weekly score trajectories), alongside a human study with instructors and teaching assistants. We find that when tools are noisy, SOTA models are supposed to provide visibility to teachers so that they do not over-rely on wrong suggestions or hallucinations, but current models fail to do that. We offer PREDACTBENCH to help build better LLMs as AI decision support systems to help teachers.
Jul 26, 2026cs.CY

AI Strategy: How to Choose What AI Product to Implement

Firms struggle to choose AI projects that pay off: two projects can look equally promising to smart, motivated stakeholders and yet deserve opposite decisions. At the residential real-estate brokerage Compass, one AI product (Likely-to-Sell recommendations) flagged sales outreach opportunities and went on to account for nine figures in annual gross commission revenue. Another championed AI product (a Time-on-Market pricing tool) was rightly shelved. A simple ROI estimate could not distinguish the two. We present expected ROI (eROI), a framework that decomposes each bet into three components and rates them separately: Value if Successful, Likelihood of Success, and Investment Required. Each maps to a question executives can answer before building: How valuable would it be if it worked? How likely is it to work? And what would it cost to implement? Separating the three breaks a common catch-22: teams cannot estimate ROI until they know whether a project will work, yet cannot know whether it will work without building it. Judging Value if Successful on its own dissolves the loop, letting a team argue that a product would be valuable if it worked while it weighs how likely that is. The framework also asks, before ranking anything, whether there are enough good ideas on the table. After ranking, it guides assembling a portfolio of bets rather than funding only the single top-ranked project. We illustrate eROI on Compass's candidate AI products. Precise ROI estimates are hard to make given the inherent uncertainty of AI projects. Coarse business-level ratings of the three components are enough to tell strong bets from weak ones.
Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Bounding the Causal Impact of ML-assisted Decision-Making via Counterfactual Correctness

Predictive machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to aid human decision-makers across various high-risk domains such as healthcare and criminal justice. There is a growing recognition of the need to evaluate the causal impact of deploying these systems on downstream outcomes, such as patient survival or crime recidivism. Randomized control trials (RCTs) can provide high-quality evidence on the impact of a deployed model, but they run into a challenge: it is often infeasible to run repeated trials when models are updated or retrained to improve predictive performance. In this work, we present a partial-identification approach to using prior RCT data to construct bounds on the causal effect of a new model. The core innovation in our approach is to leverage assumptions relating fine-grained predictive accuracy to downstream outcomes. We do so via two monotonicity assumptions: first, on individual-level `counterfactual correctness' (all else being equal, a correct prediction leads to non-inferior outcomes); and second, on the relation between subgroup predictive performance and outcomes, interpretable as an assumption regarding trust in model outputs. We demonstrate our method with a simulation study, illustrating how incorporating this information can lead to more informative bounds compared to prior work.
Jul 23, 2026cs.AI

SafeStep: AI-powered Travel Assistance for Elderly People with Frailty or Dementia

More than a million people in the UK suffer from frailty or dementia, which severely compromise their ability to travel in urban environments. This paper presents SafeStep, an AI-driven travel system that assists elderly users with their journeys. At the core of SafeStep is a novel travel graph representation, which integrates route planning with predictive modelling. For each stage of a journey, the system (i) generates personalized failure scenarios using a combi-nation of LLMs and the Anticip8 behavioral prediction engine, (ii) proposes targeted interventions, and (iii) estimates the impact of interventions on out-come probabilities. This enables SafeStep to select interventions that maximize the likelihood of the person reaching their destination. SafeStep was evaluated through experiments on travel graph generation and a field study involving 26 real-world journeys. Results showed that combining Anticip8 for failure pre-diction with GPT-based models for intervention evaluation yields the most re-liable performance. User feedback indicated that SafeStep improves confidence and perceived safety during travel, although interface usability needs to be im-proved for the target demographic. In the future, we would like to improve and release SafeStep. The AI system that was developed for SafeStep could be ap-plied in other areas, such as mental health, career coaching and addiction treatment.