Autoregressive Model

While diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art image quality for text-to-image (T2I) generation, recent work has demonstrated that they suffer from sample diversity collapse. In this work, we investigate whether autoregressive (AR) image generation models can push the Pareto frontier between image quality and sample diversity. With recent advances in quality and efficiency, AR models have emerged as a viable alternative to diffusion-based image generation. Beyond enabling new use cases such as interleaved image-text generation, their sequential generation process makes them compatible with a wide range of token-based decoding strategies originally developed to improve diversity in text generation. Motivated by the potential of a better diversity-quality tradeoff in the AR paradigm, we present the first systematic study of sample diversity in AR image generation models. We show that two key properties of AR image generation, persistently high token-level entropy and substantial redundancy in visual token spaces, limit the effectiveness of existing token-level decoding methods for diversity enhancement. We therefore propose $p$-less cluster, a new decoding strategy that performs entropy-based truncation sampling at cluster level rather than at token level. We evaluate our approach and baseline decoding methods across four autoregressive T2I models and two datasets using a comprehensive suite of metrics spanning image quality, prompt alignment, and diversity. Our results show that $p$-less cluster unlocks the greatest diversity across most evaluated autoregressive T2I models and datasets while maintaining image quality and prompt alignment.

Self-supervised learning for symbolic music has advanced largely through token-level pretraining, but such representations remain tied to tokenizer-specific sequences and often provide time-span-level embeddings only indirectly. In this paper, we propose ARIMA, a reconstruction-grounded latent predictive framework for symbolic music that learns compact window-based representations directly from data. ARIMA encodes each fixed-duration window into a continuous latent representation, trains a causal predictor with contrastive next-latent prediction, and grounds the encoder through structured reconstruction of music elements. This design preserves local musical details while modeling temporal progression across windows. We evaluate ARIMA on downstream tasks spanning various levels of music understanding. Results show that ARIMA is particularly efficient and effective on tasks involving harmonic, timing, and cross-performance retrieval, while remaining competitive with much larger baselines on other tasks. Ablations further show that next-latent prediction is essential for temporally integrated representations, and that structured reconstruction stabilizes latent learning without requiring explicit variance regularization. The code is at https://github.com/AndyWeasley2004/symbolic_music_wm.

Pricing food products to balance profitability with consumer welfare is a central challenge for retailers. Dynamic pricing is widely used to maximize revenue, yet most pricing models optimize business objectives while overlooking consumer fairness. This paper studies the risk of consumer exploitation under dynamic food pricing in Canada and proposes a methodology that embeds fairness constraints directly into retail sales forecasting. We model total retail trade sales with a log--log Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) specification, in which the coefficient on a product price is a sales elasticity, and pose the pricing problem as maximizing forecast sales subject to price bounds anchored to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). We solve this problem with both Linear Programming (LP) and Simulated Annealing (SA), under single-product and multi-product configurations. A key finding is that the fitted nominal elasticities are positive. As a result, an unconstrained sales-maximizer would push every price to its upper bound, and the CPI ceiling is the safeguard that prevents this. Simulated Annealing instead settles on conservative, interior prices that lower consumer cost while still meeting the sales target. We benchmark forecast accuracy against naive, seasonal-naive, ARIMA, and SARIMA baselines, and a CPI-deflated re-specification shows that the positive nominal elasticities are largely an inflation-driven artifact. The result is a transparent, fairness-aware pricing framework.

Lightweight speech recognition models are critical for edge deployment, yet highly optimized architectures like Moonshine often fail on morphologically rich, non-Latin languages such as Bengali. This study identifies the root cause of this failure as the model's English-centric byte-level tokenizer, which fragments Bengali words into high-fertility byte chains and triggers catastrophic autoregressive collapse during inference. To resolve this, a novel vocabulary transplantation pipeline is proposed to replace the decoder vocabulary with the native-script BanglaBERT WordPiece vocabulary and resize the corresponding token embedding matrix. Experimental results demonstrate a reduction in token fertility from 9.16 to 1.30. By decreasing autoregressive sequence length by 85.8%, decoding instability is entirely mitigated. When evaluated on the 882-hour Lipi-Ghor dataset, the modified architecture achieves a competitive 21.54% Word Error Rate (WER) and a Real-Time Factor (RTF) of 0.0053. Ultimately, this research provides a scalable, reproducible blueprint for cross-script adaptation of compact ASR models without the need for resource-intensive pre-training.

The key-value (KV) cache dominates the memory cost of long-context autoregressive inference, and a growing body of work compresses it through quantization, eviction, or offloading. We study a complementary question: once a position's KV state has been quantized to codebook indices, how should the resulting symbol stream be stored, and can the storage layer do more than store? A family of contractive iterated-map codes that serialize a symbol sequence into a sequence of low-dimensional real vectors is revisited, and it is shown that they form a natural archive format for a quantized KV cache with the following features. The method provides exactly the access pattern a growing cache requires. It is lossless, it runs in linear time, and supports O(1) random access and O(1) amortized append. A controlled study of the quantizer feeding this archive is conducted on GPT-2 with 1024-token contexts. Keeping a small exact window (4 attention sinks + 32 recent tokens) and archiving the rest, per-head residual vector quantization reduces the archived cache by 36-54x relative to an fp16 cache at a perplexity cost of 11-15%, and we quantify a sharp key/value asymmetry -- quantizing keys is roughly 4x more damaging than quantizing values, consistent with prior low-bit KV work -- and use it to allocate bits in a hybrid scheme. Finally, we show the archive is simultaneously a search index: approximate substring queries execute directly on the stored vectors, and matched context is decoded from the matched vector without ever materializing the surrounding text. We release all code; every number reproduces from a single command on a laptop CPU.

Autoregressive (AR) text-to-speech (TTS) models generate discrete speech tokens sequentially, which makes inference slow and can degrade robustness by propagating local errors and hallucinations. This limitation stems from their left-to-right AR commitment: each token must be determined before future speech-token context is available. However, such ordering is not an inherent requirement for TTS, as the full input text is available before synthesis. In this paper, we introduce DELTA-TTS, a lightweight LoRA-based adaptation framework that converts a pretrained AR TTS model into a discrete diffusion language model (dLLM) for confidence-ordered speech-token decoding. To better capture the local structure of speech, DELTA-TTS incorporates a convolution module that injects local acoustic context, together with a $1/t$-weighted training objective and a time-shifted inference schedule that defer low-confidence positions to later steps. Trained on only $585$ hours of LibriTTS, DELTA-TTS achieves a $\textbf{1.75}\%$ WER on Seed-TTS test-en, outperforming its AR backbone while generating tokens $\textbf{3.3}\times$ faster. Further analysis shows that DELTA-TTS produces sharper text--speech alignment, increases overall decoding confidence, and mitigates hallucinations observed in AR generation.

In-context learning (ICL) has emerged as a central capability of pretrained language models, yet its theoretical analysis has focused primarily on causal language models trained by left-to-right autoregressive prediction, such as GPT-style models. Masked language models instead recover masked tokens from bidirectional context, and their role in ICL remains less understood. We develop a statistical learning framework that represents the context examples by their empirical measure and models prediction as a function of the context and the query. This formulation places autoregressive and masked pretraining objectives within a common excess-risk analysis. Under Wasserstein-type regularity conditions, we relate pretraining with T tasks and N samples per task to k-shot excess risk at inference, obtaining same-order upper bounds for masked and autoregressive objectives. We also study task-distribution shift, where pretraining tasks are sampled from P and inference tasks from Q; the resulting bound contains an additional term controlled by the lifted Wasserstein distance between P and Q. The bounds further imply an order-optimal allocation under a fixed pretraining data budget and refined rates under intrinsic low-dimensional structure. Experiments on controlled function-learning tasks show that the Masked Pair Encoder (MPE) can achieve performance comparable to GPT-2-style causal Transformers, suggesting that ICL behavior is not specific to causal language models.

Neural quantum states (NQS) provide a flexible and scalable framework for approximating quantum many-body wavefunctions. Among NQS parameterizations, autoregressive models are especially attractive because they enable exact, independent sampling from the Born distribution, avoiding the autocorrelation and mixing issues of Markov chain methods. Yet their optimization remains comparatively underexplored: Adam is a scalable method but ignores function space geometry, while stochastic reconfiguration is principled but costly and numerically fragile in large models. To address this gap, we show that variational energy minimization can be viewed as an advantage policy-gradient problem over the Born distribution, motivating trust-region optimization for NQS training. We introduce Proximal Wavefunction Optimization (PWO), a principled trust-region algorithm that clips probability-ratio changes in the amplitude channel and phase increments in the phase channel. PWO avoids explicit matrix inversion, reuses samples across multiple updates, and combines the scalability of first-order optimization with theoretical guarantees. Across Ising and frustrated $J_1$-$J_2$ one- and two-dimensional spin systems, PWO improves stability and wall-clock convergence over Adam, minSR, and SPRING. Finally, we fine-tune a $1.5$B-parameter RWKV-7 model, demonstrating NQS optimization at a scale over three orders of magnitude beyond prior work.

Discrete diffusion models have steadily improved in quality relative to autoregressive (AR) models. However, these models are normally constrained to fixed-length generation and do not support key-value (KV) caching. Block diffusion partially bridges diffusion and AR by generating token blocks left-to-right, but its fixed-size sequential blocks limit decoding flexibility and parallelism. Here, we present a new class of language models, set diffusion, comprised of (i) a likelihood parameterization that factorizes over flexible-position, flexible-length token sets and (ii) a set-causal diffusion architecture that supports KV cache updates after every inference step. By factorizing over token sets instead of fixed-size blocks, tokens can be decoded in arbitrarily-ordered sets, including sliding-window sets, enabling faster inference and support for any-order decoding. Set diffusion achieves better speed-quality tradeoffs on mathematical reasoning, summarization, and unconditional generation compared to prior diffusion language models while offering stronger infilling performance than block diffusion. We provide the code, along with the model weights and blog post on the project page: https://m-arriola.com/setdlms/

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models. Unlike standard diffusion-based approaches, DLMs are not explicitly conditioned on a timestep, raising a natural question: do these models internally represent denoising progress, and how is such information used downstream? In this work, we show that DLMs do in fact encode a latent representation related to the diffusion timestep within their residual streams. We find that this signal can be reliably extracted using probes across layers, indicating that denoising progress is decodable from internal activations. We further demonstrate that steering the model along a low-dimensional subspace associated with the inferred timestep allows us to systematically modulate its notion of denoising progress, leading to predictable changes in model confidence and entropy. Finally, we analyse the geometry of the identified representation, showing that it exhibits structured and interpretable properties in activation space, and shedding light on how such a signal is processed by these models.

We investigate a forecasting framework based on a simple discrete-time dynamic model with coefficients varying in time. The parameters of the model are recovered within a deep learning framework, which makes it possible to retain a transparent parametric structure while simultaneously accounting for complex and nonstationary patterns in the observed phenomenon. Our analysis covers two specifications of the noise process. Besides the standard Gaussian setting, we also consider Laplace-distributed noise, which can offer a more adequate description in the presence of heavier tails and sharper local fluctuations. For both cases, we formulate the predictive scheme of the model and analyze the associated uncertainty quantification, including the construction of prediction intervals. The results illustrate that a relatively simple model, when combined with time-dependent parameter estimation, can serve as a mathematically tractable and practically flexible tool for forecasting complex dynamics under different noise assumptions. The general model is stated for TVAR($p$), while the prediction-interval formulas and the numerical experiments are developed for the TVAR(1) case.

Visual generative models are typically trained in two stages. A tokenizer is first trained for reconstruction and then frozen, after which a generator is trained on its discrete indices or continuous latents. This decoupling leaves the tokenizer unaware of what the generator finds easy to model. We present GEAR (Guided End-to-end AutoRegression), which trains a vector-quantized (VQ) tokenizer and an autoregressive (AR) generator jointly and end-to-end, guided by representation alignment. The key obstacle is that the VQ index fed to the AR model is non-differentiable, so gradients cannot reach the tokenizer, and a straight-through estimator collapses. GEAR resolves this with a dual read-out of the codebook assignment. A hard, one-hot branch trains the AR with next-token prediction, while a differentiable soft branch carries a representation-alignment loss that flows back to guide only the tokenizer. The AR model thereby steers its tokenizer toward an index distribution it can predict more easily. This shifts the alignment burden from the tokenizer to the AR: the tokenizer's own features become less DINOv2-like while the AR's become more so, the opposite of diffusion-side recipes that make the latent itself semantic. GEAR speeds up ImageNet gFID convergence by up to 10x relative to the strong LlamaGen-REPA baseline, learns markedly better patch-level and spatially-coherent features, and generalizes across quantizers (VQVAE, LFQ, IBQ) and to text-to-image generation.

Lane topology reasoning aims to construct a lane graph from onboard sensor observations. Existing methods follow a detection and association paradigm that treats each lane instance independently, leading to geometric inconsistency at connected endpoints and incomplete graphs due to visual occlusions. To address these issues, we propose TopoGPT, a generative framework that learns the geometry prior from typical lane graph structures through autoregressive sequence modeling. Specifically, we construct a large-scale map dataset comprising 3.3M scenes. For each lane graph, a lane tokenizer serializes it into discrete tokens, while a scene context encoder converts it into a rasterized image and extracts global features as scene tokens. We pre-train an autoregressive lane sequence transformer via scene-conditioned next-token prediction, endowing the model with the geometry prior over lane graph structures. Building upon this prior, a perception adapter aligns BEV features from multi-view images with the pre-trained scene condition, transferring the learned geometry prior to sensor-based lane graph prediction. On the OpenLane-V2 benchmark, TopoGPT outperforms existing methods by an average of +6.4 on lane-level and +11.6 on point-level metrics, and produces geometrically consistent and structurally complete lane graphs.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has recently achieved remarkable progress in native 3D mesh generation, largely due to its natural ability to handle variable-length, discrete data structures. However, the inherent constraints of the AR paradigm severely restrict the generated meshes, leading to limited face counts, bounded vertex resolutions, and difficulties in supporting textures. To overcome these bottlenecks, we propose the Barycentric Dominance Field (BDF), a continuous representation defined on triangular mesh surfaces that elegantly encodes vertex topological connectivity. BDF bridges the fundamental gap between discrete mesh topology and continuous diffusion-based generative modeling by transforming connectivity into a continuous surface signal. As an intrinsic mesh property, BDF shares strong similarities with texture maps, enabling its seamless integration into existing 3D diffusion pipelines without requiring architectural modifications. Extensive experiments demonstrate that BDF empowers diffusion models to generate native meshes with significantly higher quality, greater scalability, and stronger robustness compared to state-of-the-art autoregressive methods.

Recently, unified image generation and understanding have been extensively explored. However, extending such unified modeling paradigms to the video domain remains largely underexplored. A central challenge is that video understanding favors compact, discriminative semantic representations, whereas video generation requires dense signals that preserve visual details and temporal coherence. Videos naturally capture both spatial semantics and temporal dynamics, making them a more suitable modality for unified multimodal modeling compared to static images. In this paper, we propose Vega, a unified framework that bridges video understanding and generation. Vega leverages a shared vocabulary to jointly model text and visual representations and employs a hybrid architecture combining autoregressive (AR) prediction with diffusion-based rendering. Specifically, the AR model focuses on predicting semantically meaningful visual tokens for keyframes, providing a structured representation that guides the diffusion module in rendering dense, high-resolution video frames. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Vega achieves strong performance on video generation benchmarks such as VBench and video understanding benchmarks like VideoMME.

Interactive traffic simulation is a vital world model for autonomous driving. A central challenge in long-horizon simulation is modeling sustained multi-agent interactions, which is further exacerbated by dynamic token cardinality as agents continuously enter and exit the scene. In this work, we propose that the solution lies in the synergy between the architectural inductive biases and statistical priors of large-scale sequence models, e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs). Our probing experiments reveal that the transferability of attention mechanisms and the distributional consistency between motion tokens and natural language enable small-scale, heavily frozen LLMs to rapidly adapt to traffic modeling. Building on this insight, we introduce RosettaSim, a unified framework that projects scene topology, agent states, and spawning intents into a structured autoregressive stream with variable length, achieving both strong short-term accuracy and stable long-horizon simulation fidelity. Furthermore, evaluating extended rollouts presents yet another hurdle, as one-to-one agent correspondence inevitably fades over time. To address this, we introduce Retrieval-based Traffic Evaluation (RTE), which retrieves semantically similar real-world scenarios as context-aware reference anchors. Experiments on the Waymo Open Sim Agent Challenge (WOSAC) demonstrate that RosettaSim achieves state-of-the-art performance in both short- and long-term simulation. Furthermore, RTE exhibits a stronger correlation with standard metrics ($r=0.83$) than existing approaches ($r=0.74$), indicating improved alignment with long-horizon simulation fidelity.

Vegetable prices in Sri Lanka are highly volatile because the market is largely import-isolated, so supply disruptions quickly drive prices up. This study develops a machine learning framework to forecast such volatility by incorporating supply-chain-aware features and explicitly modelling the country's two cultivation seasons, Maha (October-April) and Yala (May-September). An integrated dataset was constructed by combining retail and farmer-gate prices with origin-aligned weather variables, diesel costs, and exchange rates across 12 vegetable varieties and 14 market centres from 2013 to 2019. A gradient-boosted ensemble model (XGBoost and LightGBM) was trained and optimised using Optuna, and unified and season-specific configurations were compared. Results show that season-specific models improve within-season fit, with the Yala-specific model achieving the highest R2 of 0.9420 (95% CI [0.690, 1.000]), while the unified model delivers the best overall predictive accuracy of 90.84% (95% CI [88.34%, 91.52%]) and an R2 of 0.9281 (95% CI [0.760, 1.000]). Notably, the unified model maintains 85.96% accuracy on a completely unseen 2024 hyperinflationary period without retraining, successfully tracking major price surges. These findings suggest that agricultural price movements in import-constrained markets are meaningfully predictable when models capture supply-chain dynamics, offering practical value for early warning and decision making by farmers, traders, and policymakers. Existing studies on Sri Lankan vegetable prices are confined to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) applied to single markets, with no supply-chain features, seasonal segmentation, or cross-regime validation.

We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting. Existing TSFMs suffer from data leakage in two forms: temporal contamination, as the model may have seen the realized values of the series it forecasts, and revision bias, as training on fully revised data diverges from the preliminary, vintage-specific releases available to real-time forecasters. MACROCAST is, to our knowledge, the first TSFM that rules out both forms of leakage entirely: at no stage of training is the model exposed to information that would not have been available to a forecaster in real time. We train MACROCAST first on purely synthetic time series in approximately one GPU-day and then fine-tune it on synthetic time series drawn from Bayesian VARs, dynamic factor models, and ARIMA specifications estimated on vintage-specific ALFRED data. Because pretraining uses only simulated data and fine-tuning uses only real-time vintages, no observed future or revised value ever enters the model; each fine-tuning run takes nine minutes. Evaluated on the FRED-MD database in a genuine real-time out-of-sample exercise, MACROCAST improves on the AR(1) benchmark for roughly 80% of series-horizon pairs, matches or surpasses Chronos-2 -- the strongest currently available TSFM -- and outperforms the Bayesian VAR and dynamic factor model benchmarks, all in a data-leakage-free manner.

Language models (LMs) represent tokens using embedding matrices that scale linearly with the vocabulary size. To constrain the parameter footprint, prior work proposes hashing many tokens into a single vector within encoder-only models. While this offers parameter efficiency, many-to-one collisions prevent its use in causal LMs. In this paper, we propose MultiHashFormer, a new framework that allows hash-based autoregression. Each token is represented as a unique hash signature, a short sequence of discrete hash IDs, generated by multiple independent hash functions. A Hash Encoder compresses this signature into a single latent vector for processing by a Transformer decoder. Then, a Hash Decoder generates the hash signature of the next token, which is then mapped back to text. We evaluate our approach at the 100M, 1B and 3B parameter scales, demonstrating that MultiHashFormer consistently outperforms standard Transformer LMs across multiple benchmarks. Furthermore, we show that our model handles multilingual vocabulary expansion with a constant parameter footprint without any modifications.

Mesh subdivision is a fundamental operation for converting coarse, editable meshes into high-resolution surfaces, with broad applications in digital asset creation. Classical rule-based schemes rely on fixed local refinement rules and often produce over-smoothed surfaces. Recent neural subdivision methods improve detail synthesis, but remain constrained by local modeling and exhibit limited generalizability. We present SubdivAR, a neural mesh subdivision framework based on our proposed Mesh Autoregressive Representation (MAR). MAR arranges meshes at different subdivision levels into an ordered scale sequence, reformulating subdivision as autoregressive next-scale prediction. To support this formulation, we introduce a Hybrid Topology-Aware Transformer that combines global semantic attention with topology-constrained local feature aggregation. SubdivAR adopts a next-scale coordinate prediction paradigm, regressing vertex offsets at each refinement stage to preserve subdivision topology while recovering fine-grained geometric details. To enable reliable learning, we construct FII-40K, a curated dataset of nearly 40,000 high-quality meshes with multi-level subdivision supervision. Experiments show that SubdivAR outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, reducing Hausdorff Distance and Chamfer Distance by 18.8% and 14.2%, respectively, and demonstrates strong robustness on complex open-surface geometries.

Diffusion language models offer a promising alternative to autoregressive models due to their potential for parallel and iterative generation. However, existing approaches use a single network for both context representation and iterative denoising, forcing one model to serve both roles and limiting its capacity for either role. We propose TwoTower, a block-wise autoregressive diffusion model that decouples these roles into two towers: a frozen AR context tower that causally processes clean tokens, and a trainable diffusion denoiser tower with bidirectional block attention that refines noisy blocks via cross-attention to the context. Built on Nemotron-3-Nano-30B-A3B, an open-weight 30B hybrid Mamba-Transformer MoE model, and trained on approximately 2.1T tokens, Nemotron-Labs-TwoTower retains 98.7% of the autoregressive baseline's quality while offering 2.42X higher wall-clock generation throughput. We release the code and model weights at https://huggingface.co/collections/nvidia/nemotron-labs-twotower.

ML foundation models are able to emulate atmospheric dynamics accurately and efficiently but operate as opaque ``black boxes''. We investigate the internal representations of the Aurora model using spatially pooled PCA and layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP). We find evidence that Aurora's latent space is primarily organized by seasonal cycles, whereas extreme storm events do not form a linearly separable cluster. LRP indicates that the model attends to features consistent with the 3D vertical structure of the Great Storm of 1987. Perturbation tests show masking relevant regions degrades forecasts $3.31\times$ more than random masking. These findings suggest that Aurora learns meteorological coherence and vertical structure without explicit instruction.

Manual reporting of 3D MRI studies is time-consuming, yet end-to-end structured report generation for 3D liver MRI remains underexplored due to volumetric complexity and scarce paired data. We propose MRI2Rep, an autoregressive framework for liver MRI report generation. From 3,929 real-world MRI-report pairs acquired over a 10-year single-institution cohort, a Report-to-Label Canonicalization (RLC) module converts free-text reports into structured, closed-vocabulary diagnostic sequences without lesion-level annotations. On a held-out test set, MRI2Rep achieves 76.0% case-level sensitivity, 29.4% lesion-level F1, compared with no more than 8.3% for adapted medical vision-language baselines, and 82.4% liver-level accuracy. In a blinded reader study, two radiologists rated 75% and 70% of AI-generated reports as clinically acceptable, compared with 95% and 100% for original reports. Our automated LLM-based judge, LLM-Eval, rated 61.8% of AI-generated reports as acceptable, applying a stricter standard and supporting its use as a conservative proxy. To our knowledge, this is the first end-to-end LI-RADS-structured reporting system for 3D liver MRI.

Dense retrieval embedding models are a fundamental component of modern retrieval-based AI systems. Most dense retrievers are trained with contrastive objectives, which require labeled positive and negative document pairs that are often costly and difficult to obtain. In this work, we investigate whether the autoregressive next-token prediction objective of a large language model (LLM) can provide supervision for dense retrieval. The intuition is simple: if a document contains information relevant to a query, conditioning on that document should make the target output easier for the LLM to predict. A key challenge is that the next-token prediction loss is computed inside the LLM, while the retriever is a separate embedding model. To address this challenge, we propose DREAM (Dense Retrieval Embeddings via Autoregressive Modeling), which injects retriever-generated query-document similarity scores into selected attention heads of a frozen LLM. During training, these scores determine how much attention each candidate document receives while the LLM predicts the target output. The resulting prediction loss provides gradients for retriever training through the attention mechanism. We evaluate DREAM on retrieval benchmarks BEIR and RTEB using embedding backbones ranging from 0.5B to 3B parameters. DREAM consistently outperforms existing baselines across different model scales. These results demonstrate that DREAM provides a promising approach for training dense retrievers through autoregressive modeling.

Modeling and sampling from the underlying distribution of asynchronous event sequences are crucial in various real-world applications, including social networks, medical diagnosis, and financial transactions. Existing autoregressive methods suffer from error accumulation during multi-step generation, while non-autoregressive diffusion methods are typically limited to fixed-length output sequences. In this paper, we propose Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes (LBDTPP), a novel semi-autoregressive TPP framework that introduces a latent block diffusion mechanism for high-quality and variable-length event sequence generation. The core idea is to define an autoregressive probability distribution over event blocks in latent space and perform Gaussian diffusion within each block. By sequentially generating blocks while simultaneously sampling events in each block, LBDTPP preserves the length flexibility of autoregressive TPPs and inherits the parallel high-quality generation capability of diffusion models. Theoretically, we derive Wasserstein error bounds showing that, under suitable local approximation and prefix-stability assumptions, block-wise generation can reduce error accumulation compared with event-wise autoregressive generation. Extensive experiments on six real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that LBDTPP outperforms state-of-the-art TPP baselines in both unconditional and conditional generation tasks. Further empirical analyses verify the benefits of latent-space diffusion and block-wise generation, and reveal the trade-off between generation quality and block size. Our code is available at https://github.com/Zh-Shuai/LBDTPP.

Modern spoken language understanding (SLU) systems are increasingly deployed in real-world settings, where specific functionalities may need to be removed due to policy or safety constraints. In SLU, a functionality corresponds to an intent and its associated slot-generation behavior. However, in autoregressive models, suppressing a target intent does not eliminate the conditional mapping that generates slots conditioned on that intent. When the intent prefix is externally supplied, the model can reconstruct the original intent-slot structure. We identify this structural failure as \textbf{\emph{capability persistence}}. We propose \textit{\underline{B}inding \underline{S}ubspace (BSU)}, a representation-level framework that isolates and attenuates intent-conditioned directions underlying this mapping. Across SLU benchmarks, BSU substantially reduces forced-prefix recoverability while preserving retained performance.

End-to-end OCR increasingly relies on autoregressive sequence models, where the quadratic cost of Transformer attention limits efficient transcription of long, paragraph-level text. State-Space Models (SSMs) such as Mamba offer linear-time decoding and have recently been shown to match Transformer accuracy on printed historical lines, but their behavior as sequences grow from short lines to full paragraphs, and their generalization to handwriting, remain poorly understood. We study how a Mamba-based OCR recognizer scales from lines to paragraphs. We first conduct a systematic exploration of its four core hyperparameters (decoder depth, state dimension, expansion factor, and connector depth) on synthetic paragraphs from 100 to 1,000 characters, identifying the recurrent state dimension and the expansion factor as the dominant levers for long-sequence accuracy. We then compare the recognizer against a Transformer baseline trained under an identical protocol. On clean synthetic paragraphs, both models stay below 1% CER at every length while the SSM runs 1.4 to 4.5 times faster, the speedup growing with sequence length. On real handwriting, however, the SSM lags clearly behind: it reaches 8.2% CER on IAM lines and 10.0% on IAM paragraphs, against 4.2% and 3.5% for the Transformer baseline. Through controlled experiments we show that a substantial part of this gap stems from data scarcity rather than from an intrinsic architectural limit: the autoregressive SSM decoder is markedly data-hungry on long sequences. Our study clarifies when SSMs are a practical choice for large-scale document transcription and when they are not.

Human motion follows a temporal hierarchical structure, transitioning from low-frequency global trajectories to high-frequency details. Inspired by the success of multi-level autoregressive models in computer vision, we propose MotionMAR, a coarse-to-fine framework for motion reconstruction from sparse observations. It first estimates the global trajectory of human motion and then gradually refines the temporal details. This architecture consists of four integrated components. The Temporal Multi-scale Tokenization (TMT) VQ-VAE encodes the data at multiple temporal resolutions, separating semantic motion from minor jitters. The Motion Autoregressive Network (MAN) operates in this latent space, predicting motion across scales. It first establishes the global structure through coarse indices and then generates finer indices to recover specific details. Meanwhile, the Scale-Aware Control (SAC) module integrates sparse tracking data to ensure the generated output aligns with actual observations. The Motion Refinement Network (MRN) subsequently smooths consecutive poses and eliminates quantization artifacts. Experiments show that MotionMAR achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on the AMASS dataset, providing a reliable and structure-aware approach for motion reconstruction. The source code is publicly available at http://www.lidarhumanmotion.net/motionmar/.

Climate change, primarily driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, requires accurate forecasting tools to support effective mitigation policies and sustainable development strategies. Existing forecasting approaches typically rely on centralized data collection, which is often restricted by privacy regulations and the distributed nature of emission data across countries and industrial sectors. This paper proposes a novel federated hybrid forecasting framework that integrates ARIMA-based trend modeling, GARCH-based volatility modeling, LSTM-Attention temporal representation learning, and XGBoost prediction within a privacy-preserving federated learning environment. The proposed framework enables collaborative learning among distributed clients without requiring the exchange of raw data. Experimental evaluation across 14 clients demonstrates strong forecasting performance, achieving client R2 values between 0.50 and 0.97 with an average of 0.73, RMSE values ranging from 0.06 to 2.35 with an average of 1.21, and MAPE values between 1.5% and 11.3% with an average of 6.5%. The results indicate that the proposed framework provides an accurate, scalable, and regulation-compliant solution for collaborative carbon-emission forecasting.

Vision-language-action (VLA) models rely on discrete action tokenizers to bridge continuous robot control and autoregressive sequence modeling, yet existing tokenizers often trade off between compression, latency, and downstream performance. We revisit this design through the lens of neural audio codecs-convolutional encoder-decoder architectures with residual vector quantization that serve as the standard front end for audio foundation models. Motivated by their success, we introduce the Neural Action Codec (NAC), which treats short robot action trajectories as multi-channel 1D signals and compresses them using a multi-scale RVQGAN architecture. We observe that audio-specific mel-spectrogram objectives are ill-suited for kinematic signals; however, by replacing them with simple time-domain and non-mel spectral reconstruction losses, audio-codec-style models can autoencode actions with high fidelity without substantial architectural changes. NAC provides a compact, ordered token space via offset codebooks, enabling standard autoregressive policies to operate over short, structured sequences. Meanwhile, a Vocos-style decoder with an ISTFT head and adversarial discriminators recovers smooth, detailed trajectories. Across LIBERO-10, RoboMimic, and a suite of real-world manipulation tasks, NAC achieves lower reconstruction error and higher success rates than binning, FAST, and prior VQ-based tokenizers at comparable or better compression rates. These results demonstrate that repurposed neural audio codecs offer a strong, practical backbone for learned action tokenization in modern VLAs.

Dynamic average estimation is a critical problem in multi-agent systems, enabling agents to collaboratively estimate time-varying signals using only local information exchange. Traditional model-based approaches often face challenges related to convergence speed and sensitivity to network topology changes. This paper introduces a novel learning-based solution leveraging Gated Graph Neural Networks (GGNNs) for fast-convergent dynamic average estimation in a fully distributed manner. Taking advantage of the inherent structure of GGNNs, the proposed method models the estimation process as a distributed autoregressor, ensuring rapid convergence while maintaining stability. We incorporate a regularization term during training to enforce convergence guarantees and introduce an encoding-decoding mechanism to reduce communication overhead without sacrificing accuracy compared to standard GGNNs. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms conventional model-based estimators in terms of both convergence speed and precision, making it a promising alternative for multi-agent applications that require dynamic average estimation.

LLM reasoning transparency is a critical affordance for understanding model decisions, mitigating misuse and misalignment, and debugging surprising model behaviors. However, DiffusionGemma performs a larger fraction of its computation in a continuous latent space; does this make its reasoning less transparent? We study this question by decomposing transparency into two components: variable transparency, whether we understand intermediate snapshots of a model's computational state; and algorithmic transparency, whether we can use these snapshots to reconstruct the process by which the model arrived at its outputs. Naively, DiffusionGemma has poor variable transparency: its opaque serial depth, the amount of serial computation that occurs in between interpretable model states, seems at first 28.6X higher than the corresponding autoregressive Gemma 4 model. However, we show that we can map the information flowing between denoising steps through an interpretable token bottleneck with no decrease in downstream performance. Treating these intermediate states as interpretable reduces the opaque serial depth to just 1.1X that of Gemma 4. Algorithmic transparency is harder for diffusion models than for autoregressive models because all token predictions in the canvas can change at every denoising step, giving the model the power to implement complicated distributed algorithms during the denoising process. To begin bridging this gap, we conduct a suite of interpretability case studies, uncovering initial evidence of novel diffusion-specific phenomena such as non-chronological reasoning, token and sequence smearing, and intermediate-context reasoning. Finally, we test monitorability, a key application of transparency that measures whether model outputs are useful for downstream tasks. We find that DiffusionGemma is similarly monitorable to Gemma 4.

The Doyle-Fuller-Newman (DFN) model resolves internal electrochemical states in lithium-ion batteries with high fidelity. However, the numerical solution of its governing equations is computationally prohibitive for real-time deployment, limiting scalability from individual cells to pack and fleet-scale applications. While machine learning surrogates can substantially reduce inference latency through GPU acceleration, most existing approaches learn solution approximations tied to specific operating conditions rather than learning generalizable state-evolution dynamics. This work presents a systematic comparison of four neural network architectures (MLP, ResNet, U-Net, FNO) formulated as autoregressive state-transition operators that predict full DFN internal states across a wide range of operating conditions. To ensure a controlled architectural comparison, all models are trained under a unified framework using multi-step unrolling and current-conditioning, isolating the impact of spatial inductive bias. Results demonstrate that the U-Net's multi-scale feature hierarchy achieves a mean final-step nRMSE of 3% averaged across all internal state variables after 300-step autoregressive rollouts, while providing a 5.38x speed-up over the numerical solver. These findings highlight spatial inductive bias as a critical determinant of surrogate performance, advancing the development of surrogates for internal state observability for next-generation battery management systems and digital twins.

Diffusion models have become a promising alternative to autoregressive models. Among these, uniform diffusion language models (UDLMs) permit any token to be updated at any step, in principle enabling more flexible generation. However, no UDLM has yet been pretrained from scratch at both large parameter scale and large token budget. Both autoregressive modeling and masked diffusion modeling already have capable models at scale that the community can study and build on; uniform diffusion has none. A scratch-pretrained UDLM at scale would provide a clean reference point for studying scaling behavior, generation dynamics, controllability, and trade-offs against established autoregressive and masked diffusion models. To this end, we introduce Sumi ("ink" in Japanese), a fully open 7B uniform diffusion language model pretrained from scratch on 1.5T tokens. Sumi performs competitively with autoregressive models trained at comparable token budgets on knowledge, reasoning, and coding benchmarks, while under-performing on commonsense benchmarks, where our education-heavy data mixture is a likely contributor. We release our model weights, checkpoints, and full training recipe, including a complete specification of the data mixture over publicly available corpora. We hope this release enables the community to study native uniform diffusion at scale and catalyzes work on its as-yet poorly understood aspects.

Unified Multimodal Modeling aims to integrate visual understanding and generation within a single system. However, existing approaches typically rely on two disparate visual tokenizers, which splits the representation space and hinders truly unified modeling. We propose UniAR, a unified autoregressive framework where a single discrete visual tokenizer serves as the key bridge between understanding and generation, enabling a shared context in which the model can directly interpret its own generated visual tokens without additional re-encoding. UniAR adapts a pretrained vision encoder with multi-level feature fusion and a lookup-free bitwise quantization scheme, preserving both high-level semantics and low-level details while scaling the effective visual vocabulary at minimal cost. Building on this, the unified autoregressive model adopts parallel-bitwise-prediction to jointly predict spatially grouped, multi-level visual codes, substantially reducing visual sequence length and accelerating generation. Finally, a diffusion-based visual decoder operates on discrete visual tokens to decode high-fidelity images. Through large-scale pre-training, followed by supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, UniAR achieves state-of-the-art performance on image generation and image editing while remaining competitive on multimodal understanding benchmarks. The project page is available at https://sharelab-sii.github.io/uniar-web.

In speech processing, most state-of-the-art sequence prediction models rely on auto-regressive (AR) strategies to generate output sequences based on the raw predictions of the model. Despite their crucial role in the inference process, a comprehensive overview of AR strategies as a unified field is lacking, due largely to implicit and multiple definitions of next-token decoding. This context complicates the choice, comparison, and evaluation of strategies, while creating inconsistencies in the characterization of approaches as auto-regressive or not. We begin by setting explicit inclusion criteria for the field of AR search in speech processing, and derive a generalized theoretical framework to categorize and report on search strategies for neural models. We show the capabilities of this formalism in simplifying the design of benchmarks centered around the decoding process, allowing for ablation studies that are focused on search strategies.

Although reinforcement learning (RL) has expanded the cognitive boundaries of large language models (LLMs), it often remains vulnerable to the autoregressive curse in long-horizon logical reasoning: small epistemic perturbations introduced early in generation can propagate irreversibly along the Markov decision process flow, triggering cascading failures that drive the reasoning trajectory toward collapse. To overcome this autoregressive cascade, in which a single early mistake can compromise all subsequent reasoning steps, we propose dynamic epistemic entropy orchestrated erasable reinforcement learning ($\text{E}^3\text{RL}$). $\text{E}^3\text{RL}$ eliminates reliance on external signals by grounding the model's endogenous local autoregressive cross-entropy as an intrinsic coordinate of epistemic uncertainty. By introducing segment-level adaptive dynamic thresholds and advantage allocation, $\text{E}^3\text{RL}$ enables the model to precisely excise localized logical defects while reusing historical key-value (KV) cache streams, thereby endowing the reasoning process with a self-healing capability. We train $\text{E}^3\text{RL}$ on the DeepMath-103k dataset. Experimental results show that $\text{E}^3\text{RL}$ reshapes the exploration efficiency of long-sequence reasoning and improves sample efficiency while maintaining linear memory overhead. On mathematical reasoning benchmarks such as AIME, $\text{E}^3\text{RL}$ achieves substantial performance gains, with the 4B and 8B parameter models surpassing previous state-of-the-art (SOTA) results by 5.349% and 6.514%, respectively. These findings suggest that $\text{E}^3\text{RL}$ shatters the autoregressive curse in long-sequence reasoning and establishes a theoretical and systems-level foundation for the next generation of self-healing artificial general intelligence (AGI).

Greenland iceberg discharge exhibits complex nonlinear dynamics with limited observability, challenging traditional predictive models. We present a Hybrid NARX-LLM framework that combines a nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (NARX) and a large language model (LLM) for residual correction. We further propose a Physics-Informed Prompt (PIP) method that transforms unstructured physical knowledge into structured prompts for zero-shot in-context reasoning. The primary objective is to explore the corrective potential of this framework for modeling Greenland iceberg discharge, rather than merely optimizing predictive accuracy. The NARX component captures intrinsic temporal dependencies, while the LLM, guided by PIP, encodes glacier dynamics and environmental drivers and perceives key trend patterns to correct systematic prediction errors. This integration allows the model to reason about unmodeled factors and produce interpretable residuals, enhancing overall predictive accuracy. Applied to Greenland iceberg discharge time series, our approach addresses extreme events that are difficult to predict due to rare variations and nonstationary trends, a limitation often overlooked by traditional methods. By fusing structured time-series modeling with knowledge-driven foundation AI, the framework offers a scalable and interpretable pathway to bridge data-limited climate forecasting with physics-informed LLM reasoning. The code is available.

Causal Transformers model sequences through an autoregressive factorization of the joint distribution, which enables efficient left-to-right decoding and conditional likelihood computation. However, they cannot tractably sample from or evaluate arbitrary conditionals -- e.g., a block of text conditioned on past and future tokens. Recent work aims to solve this problem through novel architectures, but they often lead to sub-optimal modeling of such conditionals and degraded generations. We propose Arbitrary Conditionals GPT (AC-GPT) which introduces a simple modification to standard causal Transformers to enable evaluating and sampling from arbitrary conditionals -- including past, future, and mixed contexts -- within a single forward pass. Unlike prior approaches, our method preserves the standard left-to-right ordering and next-token prediction objective essential for both strong performance and efficient training on natural language. Crucially, this compatibility allows existing LLMs to be fine-tuned for arbitrary conditioning. Our empirical results indicate that our method outperforms baselines on modeling arbitrary conditionals, without degrading standard left-to-right performance.

Open diffusion language models are marketed as parallel, non-autoregressive decoders, yet the order in which a shipped checkpoint actually commits its tokens is almost never measured. We instrument DiffusionGemma 26B, a masked discrete-diffusion mixture-of-experts model built on Gemma 4, hooking its sampler's accept step to record which canvas positions commit, when, and at what confidence. Across a 686-prompt, six-regime probe suite we find that its decoding is neither parallel nor block-autoregressive: it follows a partial left-to-right commit bias whose apparent strength depends almost entirely on the granularity at which you look. Order is weak token by token and strengthens smoothly as the analysis is coarsened, so the model's "block size" turns out to be an artifact of the measuring ruler rather than the architecture. The model commits in large simultaneous batches, leaving much of the within-batch order genuinely undefined rather than merely unobserved. The behaviour is regime-dependent: structured JSON is committed in essentially arbitrary order, and a position's commit confidence tracks correctness on mathematical reasoning but carries no signal on factual recall. Commitment is aggressive, finishing in a short late burst well inside the step budget, while task accuracy matches the model's autoregressive Gemma-4 sibling. Beyond these findings, our central contribution is methodological: measuring decoding order honestly demands handling trailing-EOS padding, within-regime confounding, commit non-monotonicity, block-size sensitivity, and large commit-batch ties, each of which can otherwise manufacture a decoding-order result that is not really there.

We study generative modeling of Bach-style symbolic piano music using a shared MIDI corpus and three model families: autoregressive LSTMs with attention, latent-variable models including recurrent VAEs and vector-quantized VAEs, and generative adversarial networks. We compare their ability to model polyphonic note sequences, learn useful latent representations, and generate stylistically coherent compositions. Our experiments show that the autoregressive LSTM with attention produces the most musically coherent samples, while vector quantization helps mitigate posterior collapse and yields more structured outputs than conventional recurrent VAEs. The adversarial approach captures local pitch patterns but remains difficult to train and generalizes less reliably to Bach's style. These results highlight the relative strengths and failure modes of autoregressive, latent-variable, and adversarial approaches for symbolic music generation.

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

Multi-turn image editing is essential for iterative design, yet current models often struggle with identity drift and error accumulation over successive steps. While existing research leverages video priors for consistency, their reliance on bidirectional attention is fundamentally misaligned with the causal, sequential nature of interactive editing. In this paper, we propose AnchorEdit, the first autoregressive (AR) diffusion-based framework designed specifically for high-resolution, long-term multi-turn editing. AnchorEdit bridges the gap between video priors and causal inference through a three-stage training curriculum: identity-preserving sing-turn pretraining, causal AR forcing fine-tuning with a novel self-rollout strategy to mitigate exposure bias, and consistency distillation for efficient 4-step generation. During inference, we introduce a memory mechanism to anchor the initial subject identity and ensure stable extrapolation across extended editing trajectories. To evaluate performance, we provide a new high-resolution multi-turn editing benchmark designed to stress-test long-horizon stability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AnchorEdit achieves state-of-the-art results, maintaining exceptional subject fidelity and instruction following even over 10+ interaction rounds.

We introduce SPADE (SPlit And Delay Embeddings), an autoregressive transformer for sequences whose tokens carry multiple features. Rather than embedding these features jointly, SPADE embeds them independently. Delaying each feature stream relative to the previous one allows intra-token correlations to be learned by the standard self-attention mechanism. Applied to point-cloud calorimeter shower generation in the highly granular ILD detector, SPADE is competitive with the state of the art AllShowers model on photon showers, and substantially outperforms its VQ-VAE-based predecessor OmniJet-$α_C$. The mechanism is applicable to any generative task with multi-feature tokens, enabling LLM-style pretraining workflows for higher-dimensional data.

This paper introduces ARM, a discrete representation-based AutoRegressive Model that unifies image understanding, generation, and editing within a next-token prediction framework. ARM is built on three efforts: first, we train a discrete semantic visual tokenizer that maps images into compact token sequences. Our tokenizer is supervised with multiple objectives that jointly promote semantic discriminability, language alignment and faithful reconstruction, thereby supporting diverse tasks in a shared latent space. With this, we train a 7B autoregressive model over large-scale text and image token sequences, seamlessly developing vision-language perception and generation capabilities. Finally, to further improve preference-aligned behavior for text-to-image generation and instruction-guided editing, ARM applies reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize task-level objectives such as visual quality, instruction adherence, and edit consistency. Surprisingly, the results show that RL not only substantially improves performance on the target tasks (e.g., raising WISE overall from 0.50 to 0.56, GEdit-Bench-EN G_O from 5.75 to 6.68), but also induces cross-task synergy between text-to-image generation and editing. Collectively, these findings highlight autoregressive modeling, when paired with strong representations and preference optimization, as a scalable foundation for multimodal intelligence. Code: https://github.com/wdrink/ARM.

Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect. We ask when such rollout stays stable, using synthetic three-component seismograms as a physically structured testbed and the \textsc{SeismoGPT} autoregressive forecaster as the model under study. Through controlled, intra-architecture ablations evaluated on free-running rollout with paired significance tests, we isolate the contribution of each design choice. Multi-token prediction is the dominant stabilizer, accounting for almost the entire improvement over a single-token baseline ($+0.040$ median NCC); a horizon-embedding hybrid prediction head and a cross-horizon STFT-magnitude coherence loss each add a small but consistent further gain. Performance depends sharply on a context-ratio threshold near one, roughly the full P-S interval of observed signal, below which rollout generalization collapses. The dominant residual failure is a polarity inversion that a magnitude-based spectral loss cannot, by construction, penalize, identifying phase-aware objectives as the natural next step. We frame this as a controlled study of rollout stability on oscillatory wavefields, not a benchmark of forecasting architectures.

While speech quality is typically assessed on complete utterances, streaming and generative systems require incremental estimation from partial audio. Existing predictors assume full context, degrading on prefix-constrained inputs. Extending ARECHO, we propose ANCHOR, reformulating incremental assessment as a multi-resolution autoregressive task. It models chunk- and utterance-level quality within a single decoder using dual-resolution tokens and a resolution-aware hierarchy for coarse-to-fine refinement. Experiments show substantial robustness under partial input, including a 48% PLCMOS error reduction on 2-second prefixes. Convergence analysis reveals a 4-6 s effective perceptual context horizon. A stress test further isolates structured extrapolation biases under localized corruption. Results demonstrate that hierarchical supervision improves incremental prediction and elucidates how perceptual quality accumulates over time.

Transitioning bidirectional video diffusion models into an autoregressive paradigm improves the interactivity of video world models, but existing causal pipelines need many stages (control fine-tuning, autoregressive training, causal initialization, few-step distillation) and still trail bidirectional models in quality due to error accumulation. Recent world models such as Yume-1.5 and Matrix-Game-3.0 instead adopt a bidirectional autoregressive approach, gaining fidelity and stable long-horizon rollout from self-correcting error propagation, yet open-source frameworks (e.g., minWM) support only causal models. We present BiWM, the first full-stack framework for interactive video world models under the bidirectional autoregressive paradigm, jointly optimizing generation quality and inference speed. From a pretrained video backbone, BiWM injects camera control by fine-tuning, then runs a few-step Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD) stage that turns the backbone into an action/camera-controllable world model: just two training stages instead of four in minWM, converging in a few hundred steps on 8xH200 GPUs. A single recipe spans Wan2.1-1.3B, Wan2.2-5B, HunyuanVideo-1.5-8B, and LTX-2.3-22B, and also supports secondary fine-tuning of existing bidirectional models. BiWM enables real-world camera control where minWM loses controllability, integrates pluggable history compression (FramePack-style and PackForcing-style) for long rollouts, and offers an optional NVFP4 4-bit training/inference pipeline. To counter DMD's mode-seeking degradation, we add GAN and mass-covering forward-KL objectives that preserve scene dynamics. We open-source BiWM for resource-constrained research and high-fidelity environment simulation.

Matrix-valued time series arise in a wide range of applications, such as spatio-temporal data from medical imaging and geophysics. Existing methods are mainly designed for static settings and lack adaptability to streaming and time-varying environments. Adaptive filtering techniques have also been largely limited to data with scalar or vector values, leaving adaptive forecasting for matrix-valued time series inadequately understood. To bridge these gaps, we develop an adaptive tensor regression framework that includes Matrix-on-Matrix (MoM) and Tensor-on-Matrix (ToM) formulations for streaming matrix-valued prediction. The two formulations differ in whether to directly model matrix-valued outputs or to exploit temporal structure via higher-order tensor representations. For the proposed tensor regression framework, we develop stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithms for online learning. We show that stacking multiple responses across time into higher-order tensors improves performance; in particular, the ToM achieves lower steady-state error and stronger denoising capability than MoM, motivating our focus on the ToM model. We further characterize the tracking behavior of SGD under time-varying dynamics. From a statistical perspective, we establish fixed-time recovery guarantees for ToM under general low-dimensional structures, including sparsity, low-rankness, and their joint sparselow-rank models.

We tightly characterize the VC dimension of depth-$L$ Transformers with a total of $W$ parameters, mapping an input sequence of length $T$ to a single output, establishing an upper bound of $O(L W \log (T W))$ and a nearly matching lower bound of $Ω(L W \log (T W / L))$. We further tightly characterize the sample complexity of chain-of-thought learning using such a Transformer, showing teacher forcing (i.e. selecting a predictor consistent with the entire chain-of-thought on training data) learns with sample complexity $O\left(L W \log \left(\left(T+T^{\prime}\right) W\right)\right)$ and that any learning rule that uses chain-of-thought data requires at least $Ω\left(L W \log \left(\left(T+T^{\prime}\right) W / L\right)\right)$ examples, where $T$ is the input length and $T^{\prime}$ is the number of autoregressive steps.

Large models for time-series forecasting have been emerged as a promising paradigm for training models on heterogeneous collections of signals. These models typically rely on causal autoregressive architectures, where each observation is sequentially predicted from past. In practice, real-world time-series exhibit non-stationarities, which significantly influence predictive performance. To mitigate this, normalization is commonly employed. However, in efficient causal settings it might induce information leakage from future observations during training. Recent alternatives, including causal normalization and statistics computed from initial observations, have been proposed to address this issue, but their practical implications remain insufficiently understood. In this work, we evaluate normalization strategies for transformer-based large time-series models trained with patching and efficient causal strategy. We showcase that normalization choice significantly influences both training convergence and forecasting performance.

Autoregressive (AR) models have demonstrated strong potential in visual generation, offering superior performance with simple architectures and optimization objectives. However, existing methods are typically limited to single-modality conditions, e.g., text, restricting their applicability in real-world scenarios that demand image synthesis from diverse controls. In this work, we present OmniGen-AR, a unified autoregressive framework for Any-to-Image generation. By discretizing various visual conditions through a shared visual tokenizer and text prompts with a text tokenizer, OmniGen-AR supports a broad spectrum of conditional inputs within a single model, including text (text-to-image generation), spatial signals (segmentation-to-image and depth-to-image), and visual context (image editing, frame prediction, and text-to-video generation). To mitigate the risk of information leakage from condition tokens to content tokens, we introduce Disentangled Causal Attention (DCA), which separates the full-sequence causal mask into condition causal attention and content causal attention. It serves as a training-time regularizer without affecting the standard next-token prediction during inference. With this design, OmniGen-AR achieves new state-of-the-art or at least competitive results across a range of benchmark, e.g., 0.63 on GenEval and 80.02 on VBench, demonstrating its effectiveness in flexible and high-fidelity visual generation.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks for portfolio optimization have shown promise for their ability to learn allocation rules dynamically from market data. However, these models fail to account for fat-tailed returns, which characterize actual market behavior with more frequent extreme events. Furthermore, historical data is treated homogeneously, without accounting for temporal importance, leading models to fail during regime changes. We propose a new BAVAR-BLED algorithm that combines methods derived from Bayesian-Averaging Vector Autoregressive (BAVAR) and the Black-Litterman model using Elliptical Distributions (BLED) within a TD3 architecture. BAVAR captures a set of vector autoregressive representations that consider multi-scale temporal features, enabling adaptive allocation decisions based on regime-aware estimates of return expectations and dispersion matrices. These estimates serve as prior inputs to BLED, a model that uses Student's t-distributions, allowing for more realistic fat tail return estimates. The BAVAR-BLED algorithm uses transformer networks for view construction and CNNs for risk-aversion estimates, which modify dynamic allocation decisions based on market conditions. An evaluation of 29 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents over a decade-long market period shows that BAVAR-BLED significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving Sharpe and Sortino ratios of 1.72 and 2.70, respectively, and total returns of 57.26%.

Codec-based autoregressive (AR) speech language models have achieved strong text-to-speech (TTS) quality by modeling speech as sequences of discrete audio tokens with large pretrained backbones. However, this token-level formulation creates a structural efficiency bottleneck: speech-token sequences are much longer than text sequences, requiring the AR backbone to perform causal computation at every token position and maintain a KV cache that grows with the sequence length. We introduce TLDR, a patch-based autoregressive framework that accelerates codec-based AR-TTS by shifting the causal modeling from token-level speech sequences to patch-level sequences. TLDR groups consecutive codec tokens into compact latent patches using a lightweight compressor, models the resulting shorter patch sequence with a frozen pretrained AR-TTS backbone adapted by LoRA, and reconstructs fine-grained speech tokens within each patch using a speaker-conditioned extractor. With a patch size of 4, TLDR achieves a 1.8x inference speedup over the baseline AR-TTS model and reduces global KV-cache memory by up to 75%. Experimental results indicate that patch-level global causal modeling can be a practical way to reduce the inference cost of pretrained codec-based AR-TTS systems without replacing the existing modules.

Vision-language models (VLMs) with varying performance and resource requirements are widely deployed, making it difficult for users to select the most appropriate one among numerous VLM candidates. Existing work reveals the performance paradox phenomenon in language models and focuses on routing methods to solve it. However, developing a router for VLM selection is still a critical yet challenging problem, which primarily faces: 1) lack of specialized data, 2) ineffective feature representation, and 3) rigid model space and costly adaptation. In this paper, we construct a multimodal dataset for VLM selection, containing the outputs of seven mainstream VLMs on 32,626 unique image-text queries. We then propose ARMS, a router for VLM selection. ARMS enhances input signals with VLM profiles, employs a simple but effective architecture to improve representations of queries and VLM capabilities. To improve ARMS' adaptation to new VLMs, we propose two extension training strategies: incremental training and independent training. Experimental results on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test sets demonstrate the effectiveness of ARMS. In particular, using our training strategy, ARMs (only 800M in size) can adapt to a broader VLM space and defeat commercial models like GPT-4o that are hundreds of times larger in scale. Our code, models, and datasets are available in the anonymous repository.

We introduce Contrast Sensitive Flow (CSFlow), a weighting scheme that connects the human eye's Contrast Sensitivity Function (CSF) to the iterative denoising steps of flow matching. Because real-world images concentrate signal at low spatial frequencies, these components reach high signal-to-noise ratio earlier during continuous diffusion than high-frequency components. When generating images with diffusion or flow matching models, this induces a soft autoregressive structure in Fourier space, where coarse image content stabilizes before fine detail. Meanwhile, the human visual system is unequally sensitive to spatial frequencies: very low and very high frequencies require significantly higher contrast to be perceived. We for the first time merge these observations through two contributions: (1) a metric that estimates which frequencies are generated at each reverse flow interval and (2) timestep weights obtained by aligning the frequencies generated at each noise level with human contrast sensitivity. We validate our contributions experimentally showing that these weights can improve generative performance by lowering FID by 4.7%, increasing Inception Score by 2.2% and improving GenEval scores by 2.5% using inference-only timestep modification or short fine-tuning. Qualitatively, we find that our CSFlow weights lead to better visual realism and less cartoonish appearance of generated images.

Diffusion and continuous flow-based language models have emerged as the leading non-autoregressive alternatives to language modeling. Progress in both paradigms is overwhelmingly tracked by generative perplexity (gen-PPL): the per-token negative log-likelihood of samples under a frozen autoregressive (AR) scorer such as gpt2-large, typically paired with an empirical-entropy guardrail to rule out low-entropy collapse. We argue that this metric is unsound. By construction, gen-PPL measures only predictability under the scoring AR, not grammaticality or semantic coherence -- and the set of predictable but still low-quality sequences is combinatorially large. To make this concrete, we construct a suite of zero-parameter, deliberately naive samplers that achieve state-of-the-art gen-PPL on LM1B and OpenWebText at non-degenerate entropy, surpassing recently published diffusion and continuous-flow models while producing text that is incoherent by construction. We recommend evaluation suites that directly quantify the distributional divergence between generated and reference text, and use such a suite to re-benchmark recent non-autoregressive models, recovering a more faithful picture of the current state of the art.

Diffusion language models (DLMs) offer substantial speed advantages through parallel decoding, but the lack of token dependencies limits generation quality compared to autoregressive (AR) models. Recent progress attempts to bridge the gap via importance sampling, with DLM being the proposal and AR being the target. However, due to the huge gap between their distributions, the sampling requires a large number of particles and is thus expensive to compute. In this paper, we introduce PoE-Bridge, a novel decoding framework that drastically improves generation speed and accuracy by introducing an intermediate distribution to bridge the gap. The distribution is constructed as a Product-of-Experts (PoE) of the DLM proposal and the AR target. With the intermediate distribution, we first use the DLM to draft multiple continuations in parallel, then apply rejection sampling to verify the drafted tokens and move the resulting candidates toward the PoE. We then use importance sampling to further correct the PoE-aligned candidates toward the AR target. We further propose several improved techniques, including mixed-temperature sampling for enhanced diversity and elastic rejection windows for reducing wasted verification. Empirically, PoE-Bridge achieves significantly improved accuracy with $5\times$ speedup over the standard DLM decoding approach, and recovers at least 95% of the target AR model's performance, efficiently advancing most of the quality gap on challenging mathematical reasoning and coding tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/juntongshi48/poe-bridge.

We study the transformation of autoregressive models (ARLMs) into diffusion language models (DLMs). Rather than pretraining from scratch, prior work replaces the causal attention in ARLMs with bidirectional attention and then trains the resulting model using a DLM objective. However, these approaches incur two distribution shifts. First, transitioning from a next-token prediction objective to a DLM objective can discard knowledge acquired by the ARLM during training. Second, standard DLMs suffer from a train-inference mismatch, as the training loss is defined on randomly masked sequences rather than the trajectories encountered at inference produced by confidence-based decoding. To address both challenges, we introduce an On-Policy Diffusion Language Model (OPDLM) in which On-Policy Distillation (OPD) is employed for ARLM-to-DLM transformation. Specifically, OPDLM is trained via self-OPD, where the student, an ARLM with bidirectional attention, generates its own trajectories, and the teacher, the original frozen ARLM, distills its knowledge by providing target logits on these trajectories. By training directly in an on-policy manner, OPDLM eliminates the train-inference mismatch in DLMs, while distillation from the original model enhances knowledge retention from the ARLM. Empirical results demonstrate that OPDLM requires 15x to 7,000x fewer training tokens with strong performance across a wide variety of tasks. OPDLM avoids the prohibitive cost of DLM pretraining and positions DLM transformation as a form of ARLM post-training.

Watermarking methods for language models have been studied extensively in the autoregressive setting, where tokens are generated sequentially. These works largely focus on local-context schemes that perturb the next token's distribution as a function of its preceding tokens. In diffusion language models, distributions over many unresolved positions are jointly sampled, allowing additive statistics of the entire sequence to be tractable during generation. We propose a watermark for masked diffusion language models that controls a global, vector-valued sketch representation of the text. Compared to context-dependent watermarking, the sketch formulation decouples detection from the local contexts seen during generation, resulting in an order-agnostic statistic and a watermarking rule which does not manifest as a simple token bias. We analyze the distortion, soundness, and robustness properties of the method.