Autoregressive Model

Hybrid AI-physics climate modeling aims to improve coarse (~100km-resolution) Earth system models by learning to parameterize subgrid processes from high-fidelity data. However, this so far mostly involves local-in-time, diagnostic parameterizations, in which the subgrid state depends only on the current coarse state with no memory of previous states, which is unrealistic for processes such as convection that have intrinsic persistence. To address this, we enhance local-in-time parameterizations by learning prognostic variables that compactly carry important, additional past information where no explicit sub-grid information is available. First we compress past information into a low-dimensional latent space using an autoencoder, which then informs a neural network trained to parameterize targeted subgrid-scale processes. We then replace the autoencoder with symbolic equations that govern the time evolution of the latent variables, yielding additional prognostic memory variables that can be integrated alongside the resolved atmospheric state. We evaluate this approach on two systems: the Lorenz-96 model (online) and surface precipitation from high-resolution atmospheric simulations (offline). A forced multivariate linear ordinary differential equation recovers most of the added value achieved by the autoencoder-based approach in both experiments. Benchmarked against diagnostic parameterizations without memory, our memory-informed approach improves climate statistics and temporal structure, including a realistic diurnal cycle of tropical land precipitation.

Patch-based autoregressive time-series forecasting often ties input representation, learned transitions, and recursive execution to one patch length. We ask which of these roles can be adjusted separately. A supporting atomic-encoding study finds greater sensitivity to model width than to atom grouping on the evaluated grid. Our main finding is that a frozen parent's recursive trajectory is easier to fit than the observed future with lightweight parallel exits. Autoregressive Trajectory Distillation (ATD) turns this into selectable ATD-1/2/4/8 execution, with ATD-1 exactly recovering the parent. On a paired four-data-set comparison, ATD-8 reaches $5.54\times$ end-to-end speedup with stable quality across widths. Fewer calls do not automatically remove the parent's existing forecast error: ATD improves trajectory fidelity in all 21 seed runs but forecast accuracy in only 15 against matched clean-future supervision. We further find a correctable residual projection along a train-selected periodic history direction. Spectrum Tangent applies this correction without adding neural parameters or Transformer calls. At horizon 720, it reduces mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) by 2.54% and 2.33% over seven data sets and two output widths, while remaining $3.24\times$ faster than recursive inference. Level and shape projections sometimes disagree. Trajectory compressibility, the fidelity-accuracy mismatch, and the correction recur across three public AR parents. Together these results separate representation, transition, and execution as AR design axes. Code is available at https://github.com/RowanFFF/ATD-Spectrum-Tangent.

Adapting a pretrained autoregressive (AR) model is a cost-efficient route to a diffusion language model (DLM). While nearly all such adaptations start from a full-attention transformer, AR modeling has shifted toward hybrid architectures that interleave attention and RNN layers. This creates an obstacle for adaptation: unlike attention, RNNs are structurally causal and nontrivial to bidirectionalize. Despite this mismatch, we investigate whether such backbones can become effective DLMs by adapting Qwen3.5 at 0.8B, 2B, 4B, and 9B scales, yielding the dQwen3.5 family. We find that hybrid backbones can be efficient starting points for adaptation: against a full-attention control, the hybrid reaches a given training loss in about half the tokens. Across scales, dQwen3.5 resembles full-attention DLMs in any-order decoding behavior and performs strongly under parallel decoding.

Autoregressive language models (ARMs) are constrained by sequential, left-to-right generation, while masked diffusion models (MDMs) enable parallel decoding but suffer from high computational overhead due to the inability to reuse Key-Value (KV) cache and from incoherent generation arising from learning dependencies over an intractable space of token combinations. We introduce Zarya, a family of hybrid language models that jointly optimizes an autoregressive (AR) objective and a masked-diffusion objective within a single architecture. Zarya structures training data into variable-size slots and employs a curriculum that gradually increases slot granularity, enabling a smooth transition from fine-grained AR learning to coarse-grained diffusion learning. At inference, Zarya provides two distinct decoding paradigms through a unified interface: (i) MDM sampling with first-hitting denoising, and (ii) slotted speculative decoding that interleaves inter-slot diffusion-based selection with intra-slot autoregressive infilling, achieving full KV cache reuse. The training and inference regimes are fully decoupled, allowing a model trained with any configuration to be deployed in either mode. Extensive configurability --- including grouped noise patterns (Prefix Completion, Fill-In-the-Prefix, Fill-In-the-Middle), ordered sampling schedules, and noise-level permutation strategies --- enables flexible research exploration. We release Zarya models publicly in sizes 0.6B, 1.7B, and 4B, demonstrating performance on standard benchmarks while offering a principled integration of autoregressive and diffusion paradigms.

Suppose we observe the first $n$ points of a sequence of random variables having length $n+1$, and wish to estimate a functional of the unobserved final point and the empirical measure of the $n$ observed training points. Such next-token functionals include the probability that the next token is novel (also known as the surprise probability), the tail probability of the minimum distance between the next token and training points, and the test error of a classifier trained on the observed points. All of these quantities are classically estimated by the leave-one-out method, which is inconsistent under temporal dependence. We propose a leave-a-window-out estimator, which deletes a window of length $τ$ after each index before forming the empirical measure and reduces to leave-one-out at $τ= 1$. Under natural assumptions, we show that the error of our estimator decays at a parametric rate for any stationary $β$-mixing process that also admits a Marton coupling. Our results thus cover several natural functionals on a large class of stochastic processes. We complement these upper bounds with a sharp minimax lower bound for estimating the surprise probability on mixing Markov chains. Simulations on Markov chains, moving-average processes, and autoregressive processes show that our estimator succeeds in many scenarios where leave-one-out and add-constant baselines fail.

Prompt-conditioned piano MIDI-to-Music rendering aims to faithfully render target notes while reproducing the timbre of a reference recording. Existing approaches primarily follow two paradigms: autoregressive (AR) modeling and flow matching (or diffusion). Discrete-codec AR models provide causal temporal modeling, but quantization can discard acoustic detail. Flow matching better preserves acoustic structure in the cost of full-sequence attention costs and worse semantic structure. Continuous autoregressive models operate directly on continuous representations. It not only combines the condition-following ability of AR models and distribution-modeling capacity of flow matching but also bypasses the quantization bottleneck with lower computational costs. Building on this principle, we present Composer--Performer--Refiner (CPR) framework. Composer autoregressively predicts continuous hidden states, Performer generates 24kHz acoustic latents through local flow matching and Refiner then upsamples the waveform to 48 kHz. We further introduce Bottlenecked Representation Alignment (BREPA) and Modality--Time RoPE (MT-RoPE) to strengthen musical semantic structure in Composer hidden states and temporal alignments across modalities. Codes are available at https://github.com/FEAfeatherTHER/CPR_official

World-action models (WAMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for robot manipulation by jointly modeling future visual dynamics and robot actions. However, existing WAMs are trained predominantly on successful trajectories, making them prone to failure when real-world execution diverges from the learned dynamics. This issue is amplified in autoregressive WAMs, where execution errors become part of the causal history and continue to influence subsequent predictions. To this end, we introduce \method{}, a training-free framework that reformulates failure recovery as \emph{test-time scaling over causal histories}. This formulation decomposes recovery into three coupled decisions: \emph{when} to revise the causal history, \emph{where} to recover a reliable history prefix, and \emph{which} history configuration best supports subsequent execution. Specifically, \method{} realizes these decisions through three stages: 1) \textbf{Progress-Aware Recovery Trigger} detects persistent non-progress and triggers recovery only when the current execution state permits intervention; 2) \textbf{History-Prefix Recovery} identifies the unreliable history suffix, retrieves a historical anchor matching the current physical state, and reconstructs the causal KV state from the retained prefix while conditioning on the latest real observation; and 3) \textbf{Hypothesis Verification} compares the future continuations induced by complete-history, recovered-prefix, and full-reset hypotheses, and commits the best-supported hypothesis. Experiments in both simulated and real-world manipulation settings demonstrate consistent improvements in task success, while ablations confirm the contribution of each recovery stage.

We introduce Zing-0.5, a 5B autoregressive world model designed for playability: users can explore generated worlds, influence unfolding events, and respond to the resulting feedback through joint keyboard and online text control. Our approach brings together three technical contributions: (1) Unified action and text conditioning, combining magnitude-aware keyboard inputs with temporally aligned text instructions and jointly annotated videos to learn navigation and event control within the same sequence; (2) Event-scale supervision for incremental generation, using a segment-level teacher trained on connected multi-prompt videos to supervise a block-level causal student through distribution-matching distillation; and (3) Low-cost real-time interaction, combining four-step generation with context-preserving streaming to support 832 x 480 inference at 24 FPS at an estimated server rental cost of approximately USD 0.009 per stream-minute. Zing-0.5 achieves an overall score of 81.0 and a consistency score of 88.5 across 158 WBench Navigation cases. A joint-control demonstration shows a text-directed event change during continued navigation without restarting generation. We release the model weights, inference code, and Zing-SGLang serving implementation to support further work on playable generated worlds.

Interactive control for video generation is moving from coarse prompts toward fine-grained, physically meaningful manipulation of dynamic scenes. Yet existing controllable methods either require the full control schedule before generation starts, or use pixel-space signals that dictate object positions rather than physical dynamics. To address these limitations, we propose PhysStream, an autoregressive model for physics-grounded image-to-video synthesis that incorporates structured scene memory---positional maps and object tracking maps derived online from previously generated frames---and supports fine-grained motion control via sparse velocity-increment signals that encode physical quantities, letting the model learn the underlying dynamics. We train our model in two stages: a bidirectional model is first finetuned with motion-control conditioning, then a causal autoregressive model is trained with additional structured scene memory, further improving physical consistency. PhysStream enables interactive, mid-generation control over multi-object tabletop rigid-body scenes---a capability not supported by prior methods---reducing motion distribution distance (FVMD) by 33% and trajectory error by 12% over the strongest baselines on synthetic benchmarks, and is preferred by human evaluators in over 85% of in-the-wild comparisons. Please check our website for more details: https://czzzzh.github.io/PhysStream

KV-cache eviction perturbs the conditional token distributions governing autoregressive generation. We investigate how first-divergence timing and subsequent token mismatch determine cumulative disagreement. We derive an exact decomposition under a specified stepwise maximal coupling: the expected mismatch fraction equals a first-mismatch contribution plus post-divergence exposure multiplied by its mismatch rate. An explicit construction over unrestricted autoregressive kernel pairs realizes the sharp interval of risks compatible with a finite divergence-aligned observation window. Residual-branch conditional Monte Carlo provides unbiased joint estimates of occurrence, occupation, and window/tail contributions, with per-replicate variance dominance for total token loss. Complete trajectories from Meta-Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct show that SnapKV at 50% retention enters divergence later and less often than SnapKV-512 or recent-token retention with the same 50% prompt-cache budget, while post-divergence total variation (TV) remains high. In an exploratory analysis of 288 documents, post-divergence exposure accounts for 85-90% of four aggregate mismatch gaps. On 288 independent documents at 90% retention, prespecified comparisons show higher branch-aligned TV in the late than in the early window in both models.

In autoregressive forecasting, long prediction rollouts provide distant supervision, but backpropagation through time (BPTT) carries gradients from those losses through many autoregressive steps. Repeated Jacobian products can make distant gradients dominate the update while amplifying predictable signal and unpredictable noise together; a large distant gradient therefore need not carry reliable learning signal. Motivated by this observation, we introduce Internal Dual-Wiener routing (Internal-DW), a principled backward-only intervention that preserves the full forward rollout and all horizon losses while reliability-weighting internal gradient routes. At each residual block, we derive bounded Wiener gains for the identity and nonlinear routes that balance preserving predictable learning signal against suppressing unpredictable variation, and estimate them from route-level gradient statistics and an explicit noise model. In a controlled system with known gradient signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), we show that distant gradients can grow even as their SNR falls, and that Internal-DW reduces held-out error in recovering predictable gradient signals and improves forecasting. On four history-dominated, weak-drive testbeds, Internal-DW reduces forecast error by 5.2%-13.8% relative to full BPTT, outperforms gradient clipping and Jacobian regularization on all four, and outperforms validation-selected truncated BPTT (TBPTT) on three. It also extends or preserves the fitted optimal training-horizon range across these four testbeds. Across the full benchmark suite, the current Internal-DW estimator has a clear applicability boundary: its benefit diminishes or reverses when usable history is limited or when the selected sampler fails to represent dominant drive-dependent variation. The results show that retaining long-horizon supervision does not require trusting every backward contribution equally.

Autoregressive language models can be used to transform a payload text into a stegotext of identical token length by preserving per-position rank information across contexts - a methodology we formalize as Contextual Autoregressive Rank Transcoding Steganography (CARTS). While the Calgacus construction of Norelli et al. demonstrated this phenomenon experimentally, no formal security analysis existed. This paper provides the first rigorous treatment of CARTS. We show its exact correctness under deterministic model assumptions, introduce a rank-coordinate representation in which keys act as bijections on rank-vector space, define relevant security notions and the computational problems naturally associated with the construction - context search, key collisions, message equivocation, and non-commutativity of the encoding maps - and study the theoretical relationships between them, including the characterization of message equivocation in terms of context search, and the tension between key collisions and message equivocation. An empirical study on Llama 3 8B confirms exact recovery of the original payload in all tested cases, finds no key collisions under random key generation, establishes that a hand-crafted collision is local rather than global, and finds no commuting key pairs - suggesting resistance to the attack vectors studied. This work opens a formally grounded research agenda for the constructive use of language models in cryptography and privacy-preserving communication.

Few-step distillation improves the efficiency of autoregressive (AR) video generation, but often causes diversity collapse: under the same prompt, different noise samples tend to produce highly similar videos with weakened motion dynamics. We analyze this degradation in Distribution Matching Distillation (DMD)-distilled AR video generators and find that, in the autoregressive setting, it takes the form of a structured uncertainty collapse: the mode-seeking bias of DMD maps different noise samples to nearly identical first chunks, and the deterministic AR cache then propagates this collapsed state to all subsequent chunks, turning a local loss of stochasticity at the rollout root into a global suppression of temporal variation. Based on this analysis, we propose Uncertainty DMD, a simple uncertainty-injection framework that restores stochasticity at two key stages of AR generation: a timestep perturbation for the first chunk to increase first-chunk diversity, and a stochastic cache-writing mechanism for later chunks to preserve uncertainty in autoregressive conditioning. The method requires no architectural changes and introduces only lightweight perturbation operations. The same perturbation mechanisms are used during both training and inference. Experiments show that Uncertainty DMD consistently improves diversity and motion dynamics while maintaining comparable per-sample visual quality.

Large Language Models (LLMs) owe much of their success to next-token prediction (NTP), but their autoregressive (AR) structure requires slow, sequential token generation. To overcome this bottleneck, we introduce diffusion-augmented LLMs, a new class of models that defines an AR model distribution while using diffusion to draw multiple tokens in parallel from that distribution. We decouple the parameters of these models into two sets: AR weights, trained using the standard NTP objective, and lightweight diffusion weights, trained to generate multiple tokens simultaneously. The diffusion weights are learned through a simple Diffusion Distillation phase that adds negligible overhead to existing LLM training pipelines. We also introduce $Ψ$-Spec, a family of samplers that enables lossless acceleration and inference-time scaling at a fixed context length. Unlike speculative decoding, our method requires no separate draft model. Unlike diffusion LLMs (d-LLMs), it accelerates generation without sacrificing the quality of the underlying AR model. The resulting models, called Uno, can be trained from scratch or built by augmenting existing open-weight AR LLMs. Uno achieves higher throughput than leading speculative-decoding methods at every evaluated batch size and delivers up to $3\times$ speedups over the base AR model, including at the largest batch size supported by the device. Notably, our 8B Uno model outperforms the leading open d-LLM, the 26B DiffusionGemma, and the proprietary Mercury 2 across all evaluated benchmarks in agentic tool use, coding, and long-context reasoning. We release code and checkpoints at: https://s-sahoo.github.io/uno/

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) complements parametric models with retrieved external evidence. The same idea is attractive for continuous-output regression, but directly reusing retrieved target values is often not robust when samples differ in output level, numerical scale, or local dynamics. Moreover, conventional forecasting pipelines generally use residuals for model optimization and error diagnosis, but do not retain individual historical residual examples as memory that can be accessed at inference time.For multivariate time-series forecasting, we propose RATL, a plug-in residual-retrieval and feedback-correction method. RATL freezes a base forecaster to construct retrieval keys and turns its historical forecast residuals into a train-only memory specific to that base model. At inference time, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar historical contexts subject to causal availability constraints, then uses a set-aware router operating over forecast blocks and variables to select and combine these trajectories. Experiments show that historical residuals matched to the current context contain reusable forecasting information and that RATL improves frozen base forecasters in most experimental settings. Ablations further show that learned routing strengthens raw residual feedback, while validation-based correction-strength selection limits residual over-injection.On real-world benchmarks, we use iTransformer as the primary frozen base forecaster, compare against multiple strong forecasting baselines, and test transferability across backbones. The results show that RATL can further improve base-forecaster performance in most settings.Overall, RATL shifts the retrieved object from historical target values to base-model-specific historical forecast errors, providing a plug-in, residual-memory-based paradigm for learned feedback correction in continuous-output forecasting.

Generating complete 3D scenes from sparse, unconstrained views is a fundamental challenge in 3D vision which requires reasoning beyond observed content while remaining computationally tractable. Existing feed-forward reconstruction methods are inherently limited to content visible in the input images, while 3D generative modeling is hindered by the high computational cost of dense volumetric representations and the scarcity of large-scale 3D supervision. We introduce SPAR3S, a sparse voxel-aligned 3D latent generative model for conditional scene completion without requiring ground-truth 3D data for supervision. Our key insight is to formulate 3D scene generation in a structured, compact, voxel-aligned 3D latent space where only occupied voxels are represented. We learn this sparse latent space directly from multi-view images using photometric supervision via differentiable 3D Gaussian Splatting. Given a partial set of observed voxels encoded from sparse input views, scene completion reduces to predicting the missing latent tokens and their spatial support within the voxel grid. To this end, we train a masked autoregressive transformer that jointly models voxel occupancy and latent token values, enabling efficient and spatially consistent generation of unseen regions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on synthetic indoor scenes, achieving higher novel-view quality than prior work. We further validate its generalization on RealEstate10k, highlighting its applicability to real-world data.

TRACE (Math & Lienhart, arXiv:2602.01135) reads causal graphs over event types out of a pretrained autoregressive sequence model by thresholding a per-position conditional-mutual-information estimate at a fixed tau. We independently replicate its headline synthetic result: with tau selected on a validation split, mean per-sequence F1 against exact interventional truth reaches 0.90-0.91 at vocabulary size 1000 (paper: 0.91) and 0.86-0.91 from 100 to 2000. First, the optimal threshold is pinned to the truth margin, not to any constant: at every size the errors at tau* straddle the delta = 0.05 margin defining ground truth (missed true edges lie just above it, accepted false ones just below), and the blind optimum lands near delta/2 times the estimator's calibration, confirmed out of sample at 5000. Second, at a single global threshold TRACE mostly recovers a direct, adjacent-influence graph: lag-1 true edges are recalled at 0.97-0.99, while true edges at lag 2 or more read orders of magnitude lower---the reading-scale price of randomizing mediating positions, which an exact test of direct causal effect requires when the truth is unknown. A per-lag threshold family recovers a third to a half of lag-2 truth; on lag-uniform data one validated threshold recalls every lag at 0.40-0.87, 8-26 pp below an atomic-intervention control at lags 3-6. Third, the default lag decay of the paper's synthetic benchmark concentrates about 85% of interventional truth at lag 1 and pushes the rest below the estimator's noise floor, so headline F1 there certifies lag-1 recovery only and conflates the benchmark's skew with the algorithm's own limit; a flatter decay separates the two. Fourth, F1 saturates from N = 2 particles at the selected threshold---a property of the threshold's margin over the noise floor, not of the estimator, which converges as N^(-1/2). We distill five practitioner rules.

Test-set accuracy is silent on two issues that matter when deploying autoregressive neural sequence models: how much probability mass the system under test (SUT) places on constraint-violating alternatives that are reachable under sampling and what fraction of the input population satisfies a domain requirement. We answer both with probabilistic model checking. The pipeline extracts a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) from the SUT's token-by-token generation, verifies formal PCTL specifications with the PRISM model checker, and aggregates the per-input verdicts into a coverage curve over the input space. A soundness theorem establishes the DTMC as an under-approximation, so every verdict yields a certified interval on the SUT's true reachability probability. The coverage built from those verdicts is, therefore, conservative by construction. A counterexample-guided abstraction refinement (CEGAR) loop adaptively tightens the interval, and a maximum-likelihood algorithm extracts the most probable falsifying trace. Two case studies exercise the pipeline. On a GPT-2 computer-aided process-planning (CAPP) model with 100% test accuracy, the pipeline quantifies the probability mass greedy decoding hides, but that is reachable with sampling; and identifies the smallest training fraction at which an ordering requirement holds population-wide, neither of which test accuracy can report. We then verify the SMILES molecular generator with a 50x larger vocabulary. The only change is an external chemical-validity oracle, and the pipeline identifies the gap between structural completeness and chemical validity.

This paper develops a general convolutional neural network (CNN) framework for detecting heterogeneous event-driven dynamics in univariate time series windows. We show that the induced CNN class exactly represents classifiers based on range, maximum drawup, maximum drawdown and slope change, and uniformly approximates realised volatility and autoregressive explosiveness on compact domains. We further establish error bounds for representative rules in finite samples and an oracle inequality for learning across them. Simulations show that the proposed model can match or outperform classifiers based on individual statistics as the training sample grows. In an application to six daily energy price series, a hierarchical CNN distinguishes event windows and event families. Applied without retraining to observations withheld after 20 February 2026, the fitted model identifies predominantly geopolitical dynamics in several oil and refined product series around the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, while distinguishing a contemporaneous natural gas spike associated with weather.

Solving multiphysics partial differential equations (PDEs) remains a major challenge in scientific computing, especially for highly complex $μ$m-scale tortuous geometries critical to energy and chemical engineering. We address this challenge by proposing a Geometry-aware Latent Autoregressive generative Model for PDEs (GeoLAMP) for solving physics within highly irregular and tortuous structures. GeoLAMP introduces a dual-encoder architecture on graph representations to jointly capture global topology and fine-scale geometric features, enabling an effective transition from real-space fields to compact latent representations. In the latent space, we propose a causal self-attention transformer with flow matching to model temporal dynamics, allowing stable and scalable block-wise autoregressive prediction. A flexible decoder reconstructs high-resolution physical fields on arbitrary points. We establish three multiphysics benchmark datasets in complex geometries, covering reactive flow, heat convection, and elasticity. GeoLAMP consistently achieves the most stable autoregression performance on these datasets, maintaining low errors throughout the entire rollout horizon. Our results provide a systematic study of geometry-aware learning for PDEs in $μ$m-scale complex geometries and offer new insights into block-wise time marching of latent autoregressive PDE modeling via a flow matching framework.

Scientific simulations generate collections of physical fields with heterogeneous statistics and dependencies, yet learned compressors often encode those fields independently or rely on a shared encoder without explicitly modeling the structure that remains in latent space. We present CAESAR-LDAR, an error-controlled multivariate learned compressor that augments a shared CAESAR-V backbone with two complementary mechanisms: a trainable orthogonal transform that reorganizes dependence across aligned latent channels, and a causal autoregressive hierarchical prior that captures local spatial structure left after transformation. Orthogonality is maintained through a matrix-exponential parameterization, making the transform exactly invertible without an additional penalty. A common residual-correction stage is applied uniformly to all variants to enforce the requested reconstruction tolerance. Experiments across combustion, climate, and turbulence data show that the two mechanisms are useful in different regimes. Latent decorrelation helps most when substantial linear cross-channel dependence survives the nonlinear encoder, whereas autoregressive modeling remains effective when the remaining structure is primarily local or spatial. Their combination provides the strongest or near-strongest rate-distortion performance across the evaluated datasets. The global transform adds little computational overhead, while autoregressive coding introduces a larger throughput tradeoff. More broadly, the results suggest a practical design principle for multivariate scientific compression: exploit global cross-channel dependence when it is measurably present in latent space, and use local probabilistic context as a complementary mechanism across a wider range of data regimes.

Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training. This paper asks where such information should enter a neural cross-sectional volatility forecasting model. We study five-day realized-volatility forecasts for 1,027 U.S. equities using a rolling walk-forward evaluation framework in which information, model capacity, hyperparameter tuning, and random seeds are matched across architectures. We propose RG-ResMoE, a regime-gated residual mixture-of-experts architecture in which regime information is used only for expert routing rather than for direct forecasting. The base predictor models volatility from stock features, while a gating network uses regime state variables to route residual corrections. RG-ResMoE consistently outperforms a capacity-matched MLP in both forecasting accuracy and training stability in the main U.S. study. Similar gains are observed on an independent Japanese panel. The integration pathway is decisive: appending the same regime variables directly to the forecasting input degrades both predictive performance and training stability, whereas restricting them to the routing gate improves accuracy and Value-at-Risk calibration. Hard routing consistently underperforms soft routing. The results suggest that, in compact neural volatility forecasting models, the primary value of mixture-of-experts models lies less in increasing model capacity than in controlling how nonstationary regime information influences prediction.

This study focuses on developing an AI-supported prototype for multiperspective interest rate forecasting that combines classical econometric models with modern artificial intel-ligence methods. Tested in a major European bank, the system enables more precise and flexible prediction of interest rate developments, supporting strategic decision-making in Asset-Liability Management (ALM). It integrates topic modeling, sentiment analysis, econometric forecasting, and market-based analyses within an interactive platform. Leveraging AI to analyze large volumes of financial documents and market data enables the identification of monetary policy trends and sentiment signals at an early stage. The core econometric model is a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) that enables simulation-based scenario analyses to evaluate economic developments from multiple perspectives. The system's innovation lies in its integration of several forecasting approaches that consolidate previously separate information sources and present them transparently and interpretably. Financial analysts and risk managers thus gain a better basis for making decisions, allowing them to assess interest rate risks more accurately and manage market movements more proactively. While the prototype demonstrates how AI can transform interest rate management in banking, further development is required to optimize real-time data integration and regulatory compliance. Even at this stage, the study shows that multi-perspective, AI-driven forecasting provides substantial added value for banks by increasing transparency, strengthening evidence-based decision-making, and improving risk management.

The prevailing recipe for Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models couples a pretrained VLM with a separately trained flow-matching action expert. This makes the VLM a context encoder rather than a decision-maker. We introduce G0.5, a pretrained autoregressive VLA in which a single transformer decoder emits reasoning and action tokens under a single objective. Three components make this tractable at foundation-model scale: a learnable cross-embodiment action tokenizer that maps heterogeneous robot actions into a shared vocabulary; a native chain-of-thought stream interleaving task decomposition, object grounding, and action hints with action tokens; and a visual memory module that injects multi-second history through the vision encoder. Because reasoning and action share a single set of weights, the pretrained VLM's capabilities carry over to physical behavior: the model follows instructions closely, and prompts directly steer action granularity, task horizon, and out-of-distribution scene handling without further training. Pretrained on a large collection of robot datasets together with VQA samples, G0.5 surpasses state-of-the-art models across 7 independent regimes: real-world fine-tuning on R1lite and R1pro robots (76.7% vs.\ 53.3% for $π_{0.5}$ and 24.4% for GR00T-N1.7), the 2025 BEHAVIOR Challenge on 50 long-horizon household mobile manipulation tasks using a generalist policy (31.4% vs.\ 26.3% for $π_{0.5}$ and 26.1% for the challenge winner), DROID post-training followed by zero-shot transfer to an unseen environment and objects (82.5%), a language-following Pick-and-Place benchmark, LIBERO (98.9%), RoboTwin 2.0 (93.3%), and SimplerEnv-Bridge (87.3%).

In real-world scenarios, the training data usually contains redundant features, label noise and feature noise, which provide severe challenges for the efficiency of machine learning methods. Since standard support vector machine (SVM) adopts $l_2$-norm penalty and hinge loss function, it lacks the ability of selecting significant features and is sensitive to noise. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel asymmetric, robust, bounded, sparse and smooth (aR) loss function for $l_1$-norm penalized geometric twin SVM (aRSGTSVM) to handle classification and regression tasks. The $l_1$-norm penalty can achieve the feature selection. The proposed aR loss function can not only effectively mitigate the impact of label noise, but also significantly enhance the stability to resampling noise, i.e., the zero-mean feature noise around the boundary hyperplanes. Furthermore, a statistical analysis of the robustness of aRSGTSVM was also conducted using the influence function. Since aRSGTSVM involves nonconvex and nonsmooth optimization, we develop a fast and stable proximal gradient descent based solving algorithm. Compared with related state-of-the-art methods, experimental results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed aRSGTSVM on both synthetic and UCI datasets. Furthermore, we apply aRSGTSVM to index tracking tasks, where results for tracking the different indices in the China stock market show that it can achieve satisfactory performance.

Creating photorealistic and temporally coherent animatable human avatars from RGB videos remains challenging. Current methods struggle to capture realistic cloth dynamics, producing over-smoothed appearance or severe artifacts on out-of-distribution poses. This limitation stems from a fundamental oversight: existing approaches neglect the temporal causality inherent in cloth physics, where current states emerge from previous states through temporal evolution rather than instantaneous skeletal configurations alone. Without explicit modeling of this causal structure, networks learn pose-appearance correlations instead of motion evolution, leading to poor generalization. We introduce a dual-stream autoregressive framework that explicitly models both observable geometric information and implicit internal state. The geometric stream propagates surface displacement from the previous frame, while the state stream fuses current features with historical states retrieved from a memory bank. Motion-adaptive aggregation handles spatially-varying dynamics, and adaptive regularization balances smoothness with flexibility. Experiments on challenging datasets demonstrate significant improvements in rendering quality, temporal consistency, and generalization to motion patterns beyond training distributions, validating that dual-stream temporal modeling enables realistic cloth dynamics.

Methods for text-based generation of hand-object interaction (HOI) sequences primarily focus on producing smooth, physically plausible trajectories. A truly utilitarian method should additionally support variable-length generation, composite motion sequences, motion completion and infilling, and reliable termination without compromising physical plausibility. Standard diffusion models for HOI generation are typically trained only for text-to-motion generation on atomic motions and require the motion length to be specified a-priori. Autoregressive (AR) methods provide greater sequence-level flexibility, but commonly depend on discrete motion codes, which can lose contact-sensitive motion detail. To address these key limitations, we present a model performing Masked Autoregression with Diffusion for HOI generation (MAD-HOI). Our method starts by encoding hand and object motions in a continuous latent space while keeping them disentangled to maintain stream-wise control. This is followed by a masked autoregressive transformer to predict context features that condition a flow-matching head. MAD-HOI is capable of motion generation for atomic and composite articulated sequences, conditioned motion completion and infilling, as well as EOM (End of Motion) prediction from a single training objective. We provide comprehensive evaluations for these capabilities and benchmark our method on the ARCTIC and GRAB datasets. Our experiments demonstrate that our method generates more diverse and physically plausible interactions compared to other open-sourced baseline methods.

Modern sequence models, from Transformers to State Space Models, have enabled powerful generative modeling across diverse domains, yet they are typically trained to predict what happens while treating when it happens as a secondary concern. In data-mining settings where events are associated with explicit timing information, this separation can limit temporal reasoning, anomaly detection, and faithful reconstruction of event chronology. A common strategy is to treat timing as an auxiliary signal, training a separate timing model using representations learned solely for event prediction. However, this two-stage approach implicitly assumes that representations optimized for event prediction already contain sufficient temporal structure. We introduce ChronoSSM, an autoregressive State Space Model (SSM) that jointly models events and timestamps with a shared backbone trained using combined token and temporal generation objectives. We compare the joint regime, where temporal supervision updates the backbone, with the two-stage regime, where timing is learned only using the frozen event representations. Across four domains spanning dense and partial timestamp supervision, joint training consistently makes inter-arrival information more recoverable from frozen representations without any systematic degradation in content-generation quality overall. Our results show that temporal supervision can produce more temporally informative representations without materially degrading autoregressive event modeling.

Many of the series that generative time-series models are benchmarked on place a large probability mass on a single value --- it does not rain, no ride is requested, no part is ordered. We report what happens when such data is evaluated carefully. First, the standard rolling-origin protocol can score a model on a window whose atom structure bears no resemblance to the dataset: on one benchmark the dataset is $42\%$ zeros and the evaluation windows are $13\%$, on another $47\%$ against $5\%$. This is not a cosmetic problem --- it reversed one of our own conclusions, turning the strongest occurrence model in our study into what looked like a cautionary tale. Second, we give a control in which CRPS is invariant \emph{by construction} while the temporal coupling is destroyed, which measures exactly how much that coupling contributes to a chosen statistic. Third, benchmarking seven models on a matched protocol over five seeds, an autoregressive hurdle beats a conditional flow on five of six datasets, by up to a factor of $153$, while the flow's own occurrence statistics vary by up to $62\%$ across training seeds and every baseline is deterministic. Finally, the model ordering is not the same under five different occurrence statistics, and the two that do not share a construction agree with each other least.

Zero-shot text-to-speech (TTS) now supports interactive assistants, personalized media, and accessibility tools. All TTS systems require faithful linguistic rendering, consistent speaker identity, and low-latency response. Yet compact streaming systems must preserve sufficient acoustic detail in a predictable low-rate latent sequence, while iterative diffusion sampling and classifier-free guidance multiply inference cost at every autoregressive step. To strike a balance between high-fidelity synthesis and low-latency inference, we present CuteTTS, a compact continuous-autoregressive TTS system. It combines semantically aligned causal VAE latents with patch-level autoregression, explicit speaker conditioning, and a bidirectional flow-matching head. We further introduce guidance-step distillation, which absorbs classifier-free guidance and multiple solver steps into a single interval-conditioned student. Evaluations on LibriSpeech and Seed-TTS-Eval demonstrate competitive intelligibility and speaker similarity in zero-shot voice cloning, while distillation lowers first-audio latency by 23.3% and real-time factor by 40.8% relative to the base model with comparable objective and subjective quality. These results provide a practical path toward continuous-autoregressive TTS that reconciles high-fidelity generation with the latency demands of real-time interaction.

Public health forecasts must respond to abrupt changes in surveillance data without over-extrapolating noise, reporting artifacts, or temporary trends. We evaluated autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models using 190 weekly observations of publicly available Ontario COVID-19 case counts from January 2020 to October 2023. Rolling-origin time-series cross-validation preserved temporal order during model tuning and evaluation. Performance was assessed across three operating dimensions: responsiveness following selected turning points, forecast horizons of one to six weeks, and the amount of historical training data. We also developed Machine Learning and ARIMA Model Averaging (MLAMA), a non-negative performance-weighted ensemble with weights that vary by forecast horizon and responsiveness setting. Retrospective comparisons showed that ARIMA adapted rapidly after turning points but its normalized error increased at longer horizons. Random forest and XGBoost were less responsive initially but maintained more stable normalized error over longer horizons. For two-week forecasts at the end of the study period, training on the most recent data outperformed using longer historical periods, particularly for XGBoost. MLAMA achieved the lowest normalized mean absolute percentage error across most forecast horizons and ranked among the best-performing methods across responsiveness settings. These findings support selecting forecasting models according to operating conditions rather than relying on a single universally preferred approach. MLAMA provides a practical framework for combining complementary statistical and machine-learning forecasts. The accompanying Python package is currently maintained in a private repository while software validation and reproducibility testing are completed.

World models are expected to support imagination over extended temporal horizons, yet most are still trained through local few-step prediction objectives and deployed by recursively rolling out their own predictions. This creates a fundamental mismatch: few-step losses optimize local transition fidelity, while long-horizon prediction depends on how errors and gradients propagate through the entire trajectory. As a result, transitions with different downstream influence on the endpoint are treated uniformly during training, and small local errors are amplified through recursive inference. We argue that long-horizon accuracy is better achieved by optimizing directly, through an end-to-end endpoint prediction objective. To instantiate this paradigm, we introduce the Direct Prediction World Model (DPWM), a non-recursive architecture that compresses an action sequence of arbitrary length into a single embedding and predicts the endpoint observation in a single forward pass. This design avoids recurrent rollout in both prediction and gradient propagation, making long-horizon end-to-end training practical at horizons where unrolled autoregressive training becomes unstable. Empirically, DPWM substantially improves long-horizon endpoint prediction over recursive world-model baselines on continuous-control and pixel-based benchmarks, with larger gains as the prediction horizon increases. We further show that recurrent baselines benefit similarly when retrained with the same long-horizon endpoint objective, supporting our central claim that the training objective, rather than the particular backbone choice, is the main driver of long-horizon prediction accuracy. Our results suggest that world models can benefit from being trained and evaluated at the temporal scales where they are ultimately used, shifting the focus from local transition modeling toward long-horizon predictive accuracy.

Motivated by LLMs, which generate outputs by iteratively sampling from next-token distributions, we introduce a PAC-learning model for binary stochastic autoregressive learning. This generalizes the deterministic autoregressive learning framework of Joshi et al., COLT 2025. In our model, one fixed generator assigns a Bernoulli next-token distribution to every prompt string. Starting from an input prompt, a token is sampled and appended to the prompt; the same generator is then applied again to this expanded prompt; this procedure is repeated for $M$ steps. Three forms of supervision are considered: base one-step samples, chain-of-thought (CoT) samples that reveal full random trajectories of length $M$, and end-to-end (e2e) samples that reveal only the final token of length $M$ trajectories. For a generator class, we study the minimum number of samples $m_{base}(\varepsilon),m_{CoT}(\varepsilon), m_{e2e}(\varepsilon)$, resp., required to learn the one-step probabilities in the base model, and the final-token probability in the CoT and e2e models, under squared loss error~$\varepsilon$. We show that stochastic autoregressive learning fundamentally differs from the deterministic theory. At scale $\varepsilon$, there is no universal comparison between the three learning tasks: both $m_{CoT}/m_{base}$ and $m_{e2e}/m_{CoT}$ can be made simultaneously arbitrarily larger than $M/\varepsilon$, the natural analogue for the existing deterministic results. Nevertheless, after altering scales, for every class, CoT learning at scale $\varepsilon$ is upper-bounded by base learning at scale $\varepsilon/M^2$, whereas e2e learning at scale $\varepsilon$ is upper-bounded, up to logarithmic factors, by $(M/\varepsilon) m_{CoT}(Θ(\varepsilon))$. These dependencies and scales are essentially tight. We complement these bounds by studying dimension $d$ logistic functions in our model.

Predicting failures before they occur remains a major challenge in predictive maintenance, particularly when failures are rare, when equipment of the same family differ in sensor configurations, and when the goal is anticipation rather than diagnosis of an already observed fault. This paper proposes a common-to-target probabilistic model that learns shared failure-related patterns across a family of heterogeneous equipment and adapts parsimoniously to target equipment. The model explicitly accounts for sensor heterogeneity, operating context, and degradation dynamics to produce calibrated failureprobability estimates suitable for maintenance planning. Its performance is evaluated on a synthetic refrigerator dataset comprising 27 simulated refrigerators with varying sensor configurations, operating conditions, and failure types, providing a controlle

Vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA) models have long been considered impractical beyond moderate dimensions: the likelihood is non-convex, the parametrization is identified only up to equivalence, and every evaluation costs a pass over the entire series. Yet their moving-average term captures with a few parameters what a pure autoregression matches only with many lags. We introduce an estimation framework that removes this computational barrier: each optimization iteration is independent of the series length $T$. The framework combines a partial-autocorrelation reparametrization that guarantees stationarity and invertibility by construction, Gaussian priors on the reparametrized coefficients with separate scales for diagonal and off-diagonal entries, and losses that depend on the data only through fixed-size sufficient statistics, evaluated by a Parseval (Fourier) identity at near-linear cost in the truncation length. This yields two point estimators: a regularized least-squares fit and a covariance-marginalized maximum-a-posteriori estimator. We prove that both recover the infinite-autoregressive representation of the true process at a near-parametric rate in fixed dimension, so the truncation introduces no asymptotic bias. The same machinery extends, at the same leading cost, to seasonal dynamics, exogenous regressors (VARMAX), and rolling-window refits. Empirically, the estimators stay close to the oracle forecast error from $d=10$ to $d=40$ (where classical conditional MLE returns non-invertible fits whose forecasts diverge) and match or beat VAR, Bayesian-VAR, component-wise ARMA, and sparse-VARMA baselines on retail-demand, meteorological, and air-quality data. This brings likelihood-based VARMA estimation, at a per-iteration cost independent of the series length, to the problem sizes where practitioners have so far relied on VAR models.

Machine learning offers a promising avenue to accelerate physical simulations by replacing computationally expensive traditional Partial Differential Equation (PDE) solvers with fast, differentiable surrogate models. However, standard auto-regressive ML emulators often suffer from error accumulation over long horizons and struggle to capture the stochasticity of complex physical systems. In this paper, we propose Kastor, a comprehensive methodology to adapt a deterministic physics foundation model into a highly efficient and accurate generative surrogate. First, we introduce a two-stage inference scheme that combines a large-stride causal auto-regressive model with a non-causal temporal super-resolution network, significantly reducing error accumulation while minimizing computational cost. Second, we present Mean prediction regularization (MPR), a novel training objective that constrains the generative model to predict the deterministic distribution mean under null noise conditioning. This regularization dramatically improves the performance and stability of both Functional Generative Networks (FGN) and diffusion-based emulators. Finally, we demonstrate that incorporating spatial gradient matching improves the accuracy and physical fidelity of the simulations as measured by power spectrum density. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulation datasets of the benchmark The Well show that with these components, our model outperforms competing methods in forecasting accuracy, spectral consistency, and computational efficiency. Our model achieves a 42.9% average reduction in forecasting compared to our reference based on the Walrus finetuning methodology, and outperforms Walrus for 8 out of 10 datasets on variance-normalized RMSE (VRMSE).

Current few-step autoregressive video diffusion models depend on previous fully denoised clean frames as context for all denoising steps of the current frame. However, these clean frames leak excessive local details, which causes the model to take shortcuts, resulting in compromised temporal semantics and dynamics. Inspired by the perspective of diffusion as masking, we explore the impact of noisy contexts on few-step autoregressive generation. Yet, simply applying contexts with the same noise levels provides insufficient guidance, leading to poor temporal consistency. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce In-Context Forcing, a progressive autoregressive paradigm that utilizes contexts with decreasing noise levels. By applying less masking to distant frames and more masking to adjacent ones, this approach provides adaptive guidance, effectively ensuring both robust temporal consistency and high inter-frame dynamics. Furthermore, by decoupling the strict dependence on previous clean frames, our paradigm enables cross-frame parallel denoising, achieving substantial inference acceleration without sacrificing performance. Extensive experiments on VBench demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in both visual fidelity and inference speed.

Visual AutoRegressive Modeling (VAR) has excelled in natural image generation via next-scale prediction, but its use on topology-structured data like human skeletons is still unexplored. VARPose is proposed to adaptively densify 2D sparse poses, thereby enriching the anatomical information available for 3D lifting models. Our core contributions are twofold. First, we introduce a Granularity-agnostic Pose Tokenizer (GPT), which employs a single hybrid codebook and a residual quantization strategy to encode poses of varying densities into a unified, multi-scale discrete representation. Our results demonstrate the strong generalizability of this representation. By decoupling the representation from the projection, we can successfully decode novel pose granularities using a frozen codebook with a retrained decoder. Second, we propose UniSkelar, a unified autoregressive model that treats "joint density" as "scale". UniSkelar learns to predict the token sequence for the next density level in a coarse-to-fine manner, conditioned on the sparsest pose. VARPose not only outperforms state-of-the-art methods and generalizes to unseen granularities, but also confers tangible performance gains on downstream tasks, such as 3D Pose Estimation and Human Mesh Recovery, through 2D pose densification. Our code and model are available at https://github.com/BRL-SYSU/VARPose.git.

Speech editing for content creation requires precise control over both what an edit should do and where it should apply. Free-form natural language provides a flexible interface for expressing edit requests, but its ambiguity may leave the intended operation, parameters, or target region underspecified. We study a precise and explicit interface for speech editing: a transcript-grounded structural edit instruction with XML-style tags explicitly specifies typed operations and localizes them to transcript spans or boundaries. This semantic timeline avoids explicit timestamp alignment and provides an externally inspectable contract for compositional edits. We instantiate the interface in dots$.$tts$.$edit, an editor adapted from the continuous autoregressive dots$.$tts foundation model. Four representative speech-creation controls cover lexical content, affective expression, pitch and speaking-rate delivery, and temporal phrasing through text, emotion, prosody, and pause editing. Task-specific data pipelines construct operation- and scope-controlled pairs while retaining source-derived context outside each target region. We further introduce doteBench, a bilingual evaluation suite that measures precise instruction following, local preservation, and audio quality across the four controls and their composition. Experiments show leading overall instruction following and local preservation across its five editing categories, while audio quality remains comparable to existing open-source systems. Across three Seed-TTS-Eval shards, the model shows negligible differences from the base model in zero-shot TTS recognition error rate and speaker similarity.

Autoregressive rigging models such as UniRig and SkinTokens perform well on articulated characters, but their ability to generalize to plant structures remains largely unexplored, since plant topologies exhibit highly variable, non-canonical branching patterns that challenge learned skeletal priors. We evaluate these models for plant skeletal reconstruction using synthetic L-system-generated trees and real scanned data spanning monopodial, sympodial, whorled, and vine-like archetypes. Preliminary testing showed UniRig collapsing complex branching into near-linear chains, while SkinTokens preserved topology better but over-segmented branches and produced an unstable output space, so we focused on UniRig for its greater stability. Diagnosis traced the collapse to sampling-level suppression of branch tokens, and further analysis showed the frozen mesh encoder had limited sensitivity to structural variation, pointing to a geometric bottleneck in the tokenization pipeline rather than a purely learned bias. Building on these findings, we applied multi-round fine-tuning over multiple procedurally generated synthetic datasets. Across rounds, the model progressively recovered accurate branching topology and generalized beyond branch-only structures to plants with foliage, a harder case given the zero-thickness, mesh-normal-dependent geometry of leaves. The resulting model generalized well across diverse plant forms without leaf-specific architectural changes, indicating that targeted fine-tuning can substantially close the domain gap between character-rigging priors and plant skeletal structure. As such, our work points toward a viable path for automated plant rigging across both branch topology and foliage type, even those not considered in our findings.

Increasing the temperature of an ordinary many-state system increases access to a wider range of states and hence increases its entropy. We find the opposite in ChatGPT-like AIs, even though raising the decoder temperature likewise increases access to a wider range of states (next-token choices). Across 12,000 continuations from 11 AIs, autoregressive feedback drives the long-time output population through an entropy maximum and into population inversion. The transition features frozen states, cycles, intermittency and noise-induced ordering. We present evidence of a hidden coordinate that acts as the state variable of an effective nonlinear map. Its trajectory average strongly predicts output repetition in separate test trajectories. ChatGPT-like AIs therefore behave not as `stochastic parrots', but as a new class of controllable nonlinear physical systems whose internal dynamics can be measured and perturbed.

Balancing sequence length, representational capacity, and long-horizon stability is a central problem in autoregressive (AR) speech and audio generation. Representations with higher frame rates or greater capacity can preserve more signal detail, but they also make streaming generation more vulnerable to distribution drift and AR error accumulation. Conversely, shorter and more compressed representations simplify AR modeling, but their limited bandwidth may discard important components and constrain the upper bound of reconstruction fidelity and generation quality. We ask whether a low-frame-rate, high-dimensional, high-bandwidth continuous representation can be co-designed with a streaming generation framework to support robust high-fidelity reconstruction, strong single-token predictability, and superior long-horizon stability. We decompose this goal into two coupled problems: what geometric and statistical properties a high-dimensional representation space should have, and how an AR continuous-token generator should be structured to resist error accumulation. Accordingly, we propose Locodec, a locally encoded codec that shapes its representation space to improve the interpolatability of a lower-dimensional core manifold and the identifiability of the native high-dimensional coordinates, thereby improving the predictability of high-dimensional high-bandwidth tokens. We also propose MP-ELD, a single-token AR flow-matching framework that uses multi-path information routing and residual classifier-free guidance to mitigate error accumulation. Experiments with 8-Hz, 768-dimensional tokens show that our design preserves reconstruction quality, improves single-token predictability, achieves competitive WER, and maintains stable long-form synthesis, without using external SSL/ASR models, pretrained text language models, or post-training stages.

Diffusion language models expose a provisional prediction at every denoising step, and on many tasks the candidate answer inside it stabilizes before the step schedule is exhausted. This creates two acceleration opportunities, leaving a block early and stopping the sequence early, but the two require different criteria because block acceleration is local whereas sequence termination is global and freezes the graded answer. Existing methods usually optimize only one axis, and existing exit gates rely on fixed-region confidence or schedule-dependent rules rather than the candidate answer itself. We present $\textbf{C}^4$, which coordinates the two axes by giving each decision its own gate. $\textbf{C}$onfidence-Verified Early Exit (CVEE) decides when the sequence may stop, requiring confidence and sustained argmax stability over a candidate span re-extracted at every step. $\textbf{C}$ommit-$\textbf{C}$ore-Then-$\textbf{C}$onfirm (CCTC) decides which token positions a step may commit by borrowing an autoregressive freezing order inside each block: it commits a boundary-anchored core and confirms deferred positions one step later, so the answer block can be accelerated without allowing local commits inside the answer span to determine sequence-level termination. On 12 zero-shot tasks with LLaDA and Dream, one frozen configuration removes 64--95% of decoding steps and delivers measured end-to-end speedups of 2.6 to 8.6 over full decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/ming053l/C4-dLLM.

Deep generative models (DGMs) are widely used for complex high-dimensional data and increasingly applied to spatial and spatio-temporal modeling. Their generated samples implicitly represent the learned data distribution and associated uncertainty. However, for real-world data, assessing whether DGMs have learned the underlying process is difficult because the ground truth is unknown and evaluation often relies on observations alone. We evaluate representative DGMs, flow matching (FM), DDPM, score-SDE, and VAE, on a known non-stationary Gaussian random field. This paper provides comprehensive metrics to assess recovery of the ground-truth mean and covariance structures, with oracle samples and a stationary control as references. All four models recover the mean surface, while their covariance recovery differs across model families: DDPM and score-SDE recover the covariance structure reasonably well, FM exhibits mildly attenuated non-stationarity and slight variance under-dispersion, and VAE has difficulty recovering the covariance structure. An experiment on ERA5 temperature anomalies further demonstrates how the framework can support the validation and development of DGMs for complex real-world spatio-temporal data.

Remote sensing change detection aims to identify land-cover changes from bi-temporal images. Most existing methods follow a one-shot dense prediction paradigm, directly regressing a change mask from fused features. However, such approaches overlook the intrinsic frequency characteristics of change patterns. We propose Freq-RemoteVAR, a frequency autoregressive framework that reformulates change detection as a structured generation problem in the frequency domain. Instead of predicting the change mask in a single step, we introduce a next-frequency prediction paradigm, where change information is progressively generated from coarse to fine. We design a frequency-aware mask tokenization strategy that decomposes change supervision into multi-frequency token targets via Fourier transformation and quantization. We develop a Frequency VAR Transformer, which performs causal autoregressive modeling over frequency tokens. The model starts from learned mask queries and progressively predicts frequency-level tokens conditioned on previously generated tokens and bi-temporal image features, effectively capturing long-range dependencies across frequency scales. We introduce Scale-Aligned RoPE Cross Attention (SRCA) module, which aligns frequency-domain mask queries with spatial-domain bi-temporal features under a unified coordinate system, enhancing spatial-frequency consistency during generation. We propose a Change-quality Control module that adaptively modulates the generation process through dynamic normalization, attention biasing, and spatial offset adjustment, thereby suppressing pseudo-change responses and improving robustness. Extensive experiments on CDD, GZ-CD, and LEVIR-CD demonstrate that Freq-RemoteVAR consistently outperforms existing methods, particularly in challenging scenarios with complex appearance variations and noisy disturbances.

Existing methods mainly adapt pretrained autoregressive (AR) language models to masked diffusion, whereas we directly adapt them to uniform-noise diffusion, where every token remains editable during sampling. However, adapting AR checkpoints across corruption kernels remains challenging because existing DLMs use different objectives and prediction parameterizations. We establish connections among SEDD, MDLM/GIDD, M2S, and Neural CTMC by expressing their conditional losses as a single generalized Kullback--Leibler objective over model reverse rates. We further derive conversions from clean-token predictions to concrete-score, posterior-mean, and exit-rate/jump parameterizations, yielding a shared $x_0$ interface that supports switching between mask and uniform kernels. Building on these connections, we propose \ours{}, a simple continual pre-training approach for directly adapting pretrained GPT2 checkpoints to uniform-noise diffusion. Through systematic evaluation of 124M- and 355M-parameter models, we show that \ours{} steadily improves the trade-off between generative perplexity (GenPPL) and unigram entropy as the sampling budget increases from 16 to 256 steps. At 256 steps, \ours{}-S and \ours{}-M achieve GenPPL/entropy pairs of $97.783/5.2626$ and $71.516/5.6669$, respectively; no evaluated model at the same scale simultaneously outperforms \ours{} on both metrics. At both scales, \ours{} also achieves the highest WinoGrande, SIQA, and BBH accuracy among the compared diffusion models.

Modern computer vision pipelines remain fragmented, with tasks such as text-to-image generation, editing, restoration, and classical perception handled by separate models. We study Unified Visual Generation (UVG), where a single model produces diverse image-valued outputs through a unified multimodal interface. While diffusion-based systems dominate UVG due to strong quality and controllability, their iterative sampling incurs substantial inference latency, limiting practical deployment. To address these limitations, we propose UniGen-AR, a framework that pairs a general-purpose multi-modal language model (MLLM) with an efficient next-scale visual auto-regressive (VAR) decoder. This design retains the flexibility of MLLM-based conditioning while leveraging the sampling efficiency and latent unification properties of VAR models. In our framework, the MLLM encodes free-form instructions and control signals into a unified sequence, which guides the VAR decoder to generate image-valued outputs for over 15 tasks spanning four families. Empirically, UniGen-AR achieves up to $19 \times$ lower inference latency than diffusion-based baselines while maintaining or improving output quality. Our ablations further reveal that VQ-VAE tokenizer design, particularly codebook size and hierarchy, is a critical factor for VAR scalability in UVG. These results establish visual auto-regressive modeling as a compelling and efficient backbone for unified visual generation. Our project page is at https://zpbao.github.io/projects/unigenar.

Volatility forecasting is dominated by persistence and measurement noise, leaving limited residual structure for nonlinear models to exploit. We introduce Susceptible Architectures (SUSA), a reservoir-design principle for volatility forecasting, and its two concrete implementations, based on complex-valued open-chain and periodic reservoirs and regime-conditioned experts to interpret reservoir features across calm, onset, recovery, and persistent-stress states. We also implement open-system $q$-qubit counterparts in Qiskit while retaining a common AR-Ridge anchor and a bounded residual correction trained under QLIKE. We evaluate models on 16 U.S. equity and exchange-traded-fund series using three disjoint chronological training, validation, and test folds, a 12-observation input window, and a five-observation forecast horizon. The proposed models perform competitively with GARCH, achieving statistically significant QLIKE improvements for specific assets (IWM, XLP). Also models' forecasts complement HARQ-style predictions: a stacked ensemble improves mean QLIKE by 0.0116 over its strongest constituent and wins in 75% of test scenarios.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents, transitioning from static conversational interfaces to dynamic systems capable of complex reasoning, tool execution, and decision-making. However, the operational reliability of these agentic AI systems is fundamentally challenged by the absence of reliable ground truth in open-ended environments and the risk of increasing operational drift over time. To address this challenge, we propose and experimentally evaluate an agentic AI framework, designed to enforce autonomous integrity within LLM-driven systems. We design a self-calibration mechanism that mitigates drift and dynamically approximates ground truth by incorporating an ARIMA forecaster, without requiring continuous human oversight. To demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of our methodology, we apply it to the complex domain of profiling the resource usage of zero-knowledge workloads in edge computing networks. Experimental results show that the proposed self-calibrating agentic framework successfully profiles the zero-knowledge workloads, achieving a higher accuracy than baseline LLM agents by 91.7% for resource usage prediction and improving the prediction speed by 71.7% compared to pure profiling, establishing a robust foundation for deploying autonomous AI in decentralized infrastructures. Furthermore, the ground truth generation using the proposed ARIMA leaping algorithm is 52% faster than a standard ARIMA forecasting algorithm, while achieving the same accuracy.

Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm. Although the autoregressive pipeline is highly scalable and flexible, its prediction errors grow rapidly over long forecasting horizons. In this work, we study this error growth phenomenon from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Our analysis reveals that the growth is driven by a feedback loop between output errors and input distribution shifts. Specifically, the autoregressive process amplifies small initial output errors, which progressively corrupt subsequent input distributions, echoing the butterfly effect in atmospheric science and ultimately deteriorating forecasting accuracy over longer horizons. Furthermore, we show that this distributional shift originates at the earliest stage of inference, with out-of-distribution signatures detectable as early as the first autoregressive step. To mitigate this issue, we propose \textbf{Self-Output Fine-Tuning (SOFT)}, a plug-and-play strategy that leverages the model's own one-step predictions to calibrate the biased input distribution encountered at the first step. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, despite its simplicity, SOFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon forecasting tasks and substantially reduces both prediction errors and distributional discrepancy. The success of SOFT highlights the importance of reexamining the fundamental pipeline of deep learning weather prediction, representing a critical pipeline advance for atmospheric science.

We propose CEDAR (Causal Edge Discovery for Autoregressive Processes), a constraint-based method for lagged causal edge discovery in sparse autoregressive time series. CEDAR screens candidate cross-variable lags using AR(1)-residualized, U-centered distance correlation, then applies two targeted conditional-independence tests per significant cross-variable lag candidate and accepts at most one lag per ordered pair. A stable MCI pruning step removes indirect edges, and optional deterministic C-nodes adjust for specified trend-like nonstationarity. In sparse regimes where few lags survive screening, CEDAR requires $O(d^2)$ CI tests after screening while retaining edge-level interpretability. CEDAR is most effective when data are scarce and variables exhibit lag-1 self-dynamics; methods with richer conditioning sets become preferable as $T$ grows or when higher-order autoregressive or simultaneous multi-lag effects are common.

Understanding animal behavior at an algorithmic level -- what animals attend to, how they form internal models and plans, and how this maps to action -- remains a central challenge in neuroscience and ethology. Data-driven generative models offer a path toward this understanding. We introduce a framework for training agent-centric autoregressive models of animal behavior from tracked pose, applicable to single animals and to groups in which each agent senses and responds to its conspecifics. Our models input egocentric sensory observations and output egocentric movements, mirroring the biological constraint that animals observe and act on the world from their own reference frame. Social behavior emerges from agents independently sensing and responding to one another. This agent-centric formulation requires managing many parallel representations of the same data, along with ML-specific transformations like discretization. We release a general-purpose library focused on the composable sequences of operations that translate between these representations. We show that trained models capture the distribution of social behavior in groups of courting Drosophila, and our library includes quantitative tools for measuring fit. We demonstrate how the library supports systematic comparison across input and output representations and that it adapts straightforwardly to a new domain.

Modern LLM deployments use a number of implementation choices and inference optimizations (e.g., batching, custom kernels, and quantization) on top of fixed weights, so two engines serving "the same model" can produce meaningfully different distributions. We study the problem of estimating the total variation (TV) distance between two length-$n$ autoregressive distributions to additive error $\varepsilon$, under three access models. (1) Under sample access, we use $\widetilde{O}(n^2 K/\varepsilon^2)$ queries, where $K$ is the maximum support of the next-token distribution. This improves upon the $\widetilde{O}(n^3 m/\varepsilon^5)$-query estimator of Meel et al. (2025), where $m \geq K$ is the total size of the token alphabet. (2) Under logit access, we use $O(n/\varepsilon^2)$ queries, and this is tight. (3) Under noisy logit access, we smoothly interpolate between the above two guarantees: if probability values are given to relative error $σ$, we use $\widetilde{O}((n+n^2σ^2)/\varepsilon^2)$ queries. We complement our theoretical results with an empirical evaluation of our algorithms, for example measuring the distance between SGLang and vLLM serving identical weights. Our experiments highlight the robustness and practicality of estimating the total variation distance, which remains estimable where the KL divergence is infinite. Our code is available at https://github.com/XunZhiyang/llm-tv-estimation.

Autoregressive context models are foundational for learned image compression,but they suffer from slow serial inference. Existing acceleration methods such as checkerboard context require architectural changes and retraining, thus are inapplicable to pre-trained models. We propose a completely training-free inference-time acceleration algorithm inspired by wavefront parallelism in video coding standards. Our method reorganizes inference into an optimal ``staggered'' wavefront order, minimizing sequential steps while maintaining exact autoregressive dependencies. Experimental results show our approach accelerates pre-trained autoregressive models (e.g., Cheng et al.) by more than $13\times$ while preserving the original rate-distortion performance. We also demonstrate that faster decoding is possible by trading off precise context dependencies. Source code will be available at https://github.com/tokkiwa/compressai-wavefront.

Audio mixing style encompasses the artistic and technical decisions a mix engineer makes, including level balancing, spatialization, and the choice, ordering, and parameterization of audio effects (FX) on each stem. FX chains are a key determinant of this style, yet existing approaches to modeling them remain limited. Some operate on stereo mixtures without explicit per-stem FX chain modeling, others fix the number or type of effects per track, and many require differentiable effect implementations or scarce multitrack datasets. We present StemFX, a framework that learns mixing style representations by autoregressively predicting variable-length FX chains on source-separated stems. A Transformer decoder predicts tokenized FX chains autoregressively, while a band-split multi-band CNN encoder with FiLM conditioning captures per-stem spectral structure. To enable large-scale paired training, we extract pseudo-stems from about 105K songs via source separation and augment them using MultiAFx, a toolkit unifying 85 audio effects from 7 Python libraries. Evaluated on mixing style retrieval, StemFX outperforms all baseline models across all tested chain lengths. On paired mixing style transfer, StemFX achieves the best spectral fidelity and the highest listener preference, over 4000 times faster than iterative optimization.

This work introduces FilmGPT, an autoregressive transformer designed to address the challenge of video montage--turning a collection of raw, "unwatchable" footage into coherent cinematic sequences. Inspired by language learning in modern LLMs, we train a long-context autoregressive transformer on a large corpus of movies. The aim is to implicitly capture the "grammar" of film directly from data rather than from hand-coded rules. Unlike other generative models, FilmGPT does not generate any new video frames. Instead, at inference time, we introduce a footage-constrained decoding algorithm to select the best next shot from the input raw footage according to the statistical patterns learned from films. We first evaluate these learned statistics directly by using the FilmGPT autoregressive model for next shot prediction on a standard benchmark of shot sequence ordering, outperforming the previous state of the art. We then evaluate our footage-constrained decoding algorithm on the full film editing task via a user study, and find that our FilmGPT-based editing significantly outperforms previous approaches. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of FilmGPT to a wide range of applications in video montage, from automatic video segment trimming to human-in-the-loop film editing.

Financial observations are continuous, heterogeneous, and noisy, whereas decoder-only next-token models are usually built around discrete symbolic inputs. We introduce Vector-Input Autoregressive Inference for Ordinal-Return Modeling (VAIOM), a decoder-only Transformer for probabilistic next-return modeling on one-hour foreign-exchange bars. VAIOM separates input representation from output likelihood: continuous multivariate financial-event vectors preserve numerical structure at the input, while a categorical distribution over the next volatility-normalized return bucket supports cross-entropy training and likelihood evaluation. The selected 0.9M Hybrid Continuous Input model combines continuous event features with categorical asset metadata, a Mixture-of-Market-States return head, Gap, volatility-regime, and Ordinal auxiliary objectives, and full-sequence supervision. Models and preprocessing are fit using pre-2024 Train data; models are selected on 2024H2 Validation and evaluated without refitting on two 2025 Test periods. Across three independent training seeds, every model outperforms fixed single-bar LightGBM baseline in both Test halves. For the canonical checkpoint, paired gains over LightGBM are 0.029 and 0.043 bits per event. Validation experiments show that continuous input improves over discrete-token input under the same categorical return objective, full-sequence supervision improves over last-position training, and auxiliary representation shaping together with a mixture-structured return head improves return likelihood in controlled comparisons. A supporting capacity study finds that the smallest evaluated complete architecture rung achieves the strongest Validation likelihood on the present corpus.

Quantum circuit optimization for fault-tolerant computing requires exact functional equivalence while minimizing expensive non-Clifford resources such as T gates. We study this problem using a compact 44.8M-parameter encoder-decoder transformer with structured circuit tokenization, evaluating on parameterized circuits (2-6 qubits) and Clifford+T circuits (3-6 qubits). On parameterized circuits, a hybrid approach -- structure from the transformer, angles from classical optimization -- achieves median fidelity 1.000 on 3-6 qubit circuits. On Clifford+T circuits, where all gates are discrete and no post-processing is possible, the model learns valid syntax and accurate T-Count statistics, yet exact equivalence degrades sharply with target length -- from 88% on circuits with <=9 gates to near zero beyond 26 gates. We trace this failure to autoregressive drift: early-token divergence cascading irrecoverably through left-to-right decoding. Two levers partially mitigate the drift: inference-time strategies that generate multiple candidates and select via equivalence verification raise exact-match rates from 7% to 22.5%, while scaling training data by 2.5x pushes them to 39.5%. Yet the degradation with target length persists -- even with more data, exact equivalence drops from 94% on short circuits to under 4% beyond 26 gates. The contrast between settings is our central finding: when approximate outputs can be rescued by post-processing, the transformer succeeds; when exact discrete correctness is required, autoregressive drift limits reliability, with both inference-time search and data scaling as effective levers while training-side fine-tuning and model-level diversification are not.

Generative modeling of longitudinal Electronic Health Records is increasingly important for privacy-preserving research, yet standard autoregressive models tend to underrepresent the co-occurrence structure of tail events (i.e., diseases, symptoms), reducing the fidelity and faithfulness of generated data for rare subpopulations. To this end, we propose AdaPCLA framework, which enables generative models to adaptively fit and generate EHR data through a data distribution-aware training strategy; this is achieved by internalizing data knowledge parameters by simulated annealing training. It also supports training-free adaptation to a diverse clinical population for generation through zero-shot distribution control. Moreover, our theoretical analysis characterizes rare-code logit updates through the label-wise empirical NTK and derives a prior-internalization bound for how annealing speed and NTK conditioning affect retained prior signals. Experiments on real-world data show that AdaPCLA achieves consistent gains in tail plausibility, downstream utility, and zero-shot control; in particular, it improves TailPairSeen over HALO by 114.2% on MIMIC-III and 65.1% on MIMIC-IV, outperforms GPT-style generation by 3.5% F1 for zero-shot cross-population adaptation.

Benefiting from the powerful priors embedded in large-scale pre-training data and the emerging commonsense reasoning ability, large language models (LLMs) have shown unprecedented generalization capabilities in many research fields. Recently, projecting visual embeddings into the language space via vision-language models (VLMs) to achieve sim-toreal and cross-scene generalization has become a prevailing paradigm in the field of Vision-and-Language Navigation in Continuous Environments (VLN-CE). VLN requires an embodied agent to navigate through unseen environments following natural linguistic instructions. We emphasize that a VLN task can be decomposed into a sequence of sub-tasks, each corresponding to a process of 3D spatial interaction with the environments described by instructions such as "walk to the end of the sofa and turn left." However, such spatial interactions involving moving into the image along the direction of depth sensing are puzzling for VLMs as they were predominantly trained on conversations with RGB images. Rather than incorporating depth or 3D geometric information-which VLMs rarely encounter during pretrainingwe propose an alternative approach: fine-tuning VLMs to learn navigation interactions directly in 2D pixel space through autoregressive trajectory generation. Given a linguistic instruction and historical observations, our model sequentially predicts a series of pixel coordinates, drawing a trajectory from the bottom center of the current observation. While prior work has proved that pixel-goal supervision outperforms learning of discrete actions, our experiments further verify that the supervision of pixel-space trajectory significantly enhances VLN performance. Moreover, we demonstrate that our flagship model achieves state-of-the-art level performance with relatively limited computational resources and training data.