Digital Twins

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Digital twins are computational counterparts of physical assets, people, or broader systems, updated with observations to represent their changing state and test possible actions. Approaches range from physics-based simulation and data assimilation to machine-learning surrogates, hybrid models, generative agents, and reinforcement learning for control. Applications span manufacturing, infrastructure, transportation, healthcare, energy, and social systems, where twins can support forecasting, maintenance, safety testing, and personalized decisions. A central challenge is ensuring that a twin remains calibrated and trustworthy as conditions change, while balancing fidelity, uncertainty, computation, privacy, and validation against real-world outcomes.

Latest papers

253 papers36 papers in the last four weeks, up 16% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

May 7, 2026

A Scalable Digital Twin Framework for Energy Optimization in Data Centers

This study proposes a scalable Digital Twin framework for energy optimization in data centers.The framework integrates IoT-based data acquisition, cloud computing, and machine learning techniques to enable real-time monitoring, forecasting, and intelligent energy management. A controlled small-scale data center environment was developed to monitor variables such as power consumption, temperature, and computational workload. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models were employed to predict energy demand and support operational decision-making. Experimental results demonstrated improvements in energy efficiency, including reductions in power consumption and enhancements in Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE). Despite being evaluated in a constrained environment, the proposed framework demonstrates strong potential as a scalable and cost-effective solution for sustainable data center management.

Raphael Hendrigo de Souza Gonçalves, Wendel Marcos dos Santos

Federal University of São João del-Rei (UFSJ) · Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of São Paulo (IFSP)

Data Center Energy Management Digital Twins

May 7, 2026

Housing Potential Common Data Model and City Digital Twin

The evaluation of housing potential requires consideration of a location from multiple perspectives, ranging from zoning and land use to population characteristics and access to services. This research introduces the Housing Potential Common Data Model (HPCDM) to overcome existing data silos, serving as a standard to support integration and interoperability across the diverse range of datasets that are required for housing potential analysis. This report details the evaluation of the model along with the creation of a City Digital Twin for housing and a pilot dashboard application to demonstrate a practical implementation. Beyond the technical framework, this work identifies critical barriers to adoption and provides actionable mitigation strategies for urban planners and stakeholders.

Megan Katsumi, Mark Fox, Anderson Wong +1

Urban Data Research Centre School of Cities University of Toronto

Urban Planning Digital Twins

May 3, 2026

Behavior-Grounded Lane Representation Learning for Multi-Task Traffic Digital Twins

Traffic digital twins are powerful tools for advanced traffic management, and most systems are built on static geometric representations. However, these representations fail to capture the dynamic functional semantics required for behavior-aware reasoning, such as how a lane operates under complex traffic conditions. To address this gap, we introduce GeoLaneRep, a behavior-grounded lane representation learning framework for traffic digital twins. GeoLaneRep jointly encodes static lane geometry, observed vehicle trajectories, and operational descriptors into a shared, cross-camera semantic embedding. The encoder is trained with a joint objective combining contrastive cross-camera alignment, auxiliary role supervision, and temporal anomaly detection. Across 16 roadside cameras and 132 lanes, the learned embeddings achieve a

0.004

lateral-rank error and an edge-role F1 of

1.000

in zero-shot cross-camera matching, and an AUROC of

0.991

for window-level anomaly detection. We further show that the same behavioral embeddings can condition a diffusion-based generator to synthesize lane geometries that satisfy targeted operational specifications, with

87.9\%

overall specification accuracy across 38 lane groups. GeoLaneRep thus provides a semantic interface between roadside observations and downstream digital twin tasks, supporting cross-camera transfer, behavior-aware monitoring, and goal-directed lane synthesis. The framework is openly available at https://github.com/raynbowy23/GeoLaneRep.

Rei Tamaru, Pei Li, Bin Ran

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA · Department of Civil and Architecture Engineering and Construction Management, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA

Representation Learning Digital Twins Cross-View Image Matching Traffic Anomaly Detection

May 1, 2026

Equation-Free Digital Twins for Nonlinear Structural Dynamics

Monitoring high-dimensional engineering structures in extreme environments is limited by non-stationary excitation, nonlinear structural kinematics, and stochastic forcing. Traditional model-based and black-box data-driven methods often struggle to resolve these dynamics in real time, particularly under sensor failure or partial observability. This paper introduces a rank-optimized digital twin framework based on Koopman operator theory, Hankel-matrix embeddings, and dynamic mode decomposition. By lifting operational data into a linear invariant subspace, the method enables autonomous, input-blind reconstruction of structural states without requiring a priori mass or stiffness matrices. The framework is validated on an NREL 5MW spar-buoy floating offshore wind turbine, representing a challenging coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic system. Results show that the rank-optimized Koopman-Hankel manifold separates structural resonances from deterministic 3P rotor harmonics under colored noise, where standard subspace identification can be unreliable. A rolling-horizon virtual sensing strategy achieves high-fidelity reconstruction at critical structural hotspots, with coefficient of determination greater than 0.95 at 1 Hz data assimilation and accuracy exceeding 0.99 at higher sampling rates. By estimating a physical Lyapunov time of approximately 1.0 s, the study defines the predictability horizon associated with the system information barrier. The proposed framework provides a computationally efficient and resilient digital twin approach for real-time identification and virtual sensing of complex structural dynamics.

Mohammad Mahdi Abaei, Ahmad BahooToroody, Arttu Polojärvi +4

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Marine Technology and Arctic Group, Aalto University, Finland · Independent Expert, Digital Twin Technology, Ribe, Denmark · Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany

Koopman Operator Learning Nonlinear System Identification Digital Twins Virtual Sensing Structural Health Monitoring Dynamic Mode Decomposition

Apr 30, 2026

Network Digital Untwinning: Towards Backward Optimization of Digital Twins

Network digital twins (NDTs) are transforming network management by offering precise virtual replicas of physical network systems. However, their reliance on diverse and sensitive data introduces significant challenges related to data management, regulatory compliance, and user privacy. In scenarios where selective data removal is necessary, such as device deactivation, network reconfiguration, or regulatory compliance, traditional approaches often fall short of preserving the integrity of the twin model. To address this gap, we introduce a network digital untwinning framework that enables the targeted removal of deprecated NDT contributions while maintaining model integrity. Our approach comprises two complementary components: Single Request Untwinning (\algO) and Parallel Request Untwinning (\algM) mechanisms. \algO leverages connectivity metrics based on geographical proximity, data distribution, and network-level attributes to identify and remove the target NDT along with its propagating influence. This is achieved through an optimally selected rollback checkpoint augmented with injected Gaussian noise, followed by a precise remapping phase. \algM extends this mechanism to efficiently handle multiple removal requests by clustering NDTs with similar attributes and performing a coordinated rollback and untwinning schedule. We provide theoretical guarantees on model indistinguishability from scratch-built twins, and validate the framework through extensive experiments on real-world traffic data, demonstrating its effectiveness and operational efficiency.

Zifan Zhang, Dianwei Chen, Anjun Gao +5

North Carolina State University, USA · University of Maryland, USA · University of Louisville, USA +2

Digital Twins Machine Unlearning

Apr 29, 2026

Toward Personalized Digital Twins for Cognitive Decline Assessment: A Multimodal, Uncertainty-Aware Framework

Cognitive decline is highly heterogeneous across individuals, which complicates prognosis, trial design, and treatment planning. We present the Personalized Cognitive Decline Assessment Digital Twin (PCD-DT), a multimodal and uncertainty-aware framework for modeling patient-specific disease trajectories from sparse, noisy, and irregular longitudinal data. The framework combines three methodological components: (1) latent state-space models for individualized temporal dynamics, (2) multimodal fusion for clinical, biomarker, and imaging features, and (3) uncertainty-aware validation and adaptive updating for robust digital twin operation. We also outline how conditional generative models can support data augmentation and stress testing for underrepresented progression patterns. As a preliminary feasibility study, we analyze longitudinal TADPOLE trajectories and show clear separation between cognitively normal and Alzheimer's disease cohorts in ADAS13, ventricle volume, and hippocampal volume over five years. We further conduct a multimodal next-visit prediction ablation using an LSTM sequence model on 3{,}003 visit-pair sequences derived from TADPOLE, where the combined cognitive plus MRI configuration achieves the lowest standardized RMSE for both ADAS13 (0.4419) and ventricle volume (0.5842), outperforming a Last Observation Carried Forward baseline. A Bayesian tensor modeling component for high-dimensional imaging fusion is also discussed. These results support the feasibility of the proposed architecture while also highlighting the need for stronger uncertainty calibration and longer-horizon predictive evaluation. The PCD-DT framework provides a principled starting point for personalized in silico modeling in neurodegenerative disease. This work positions PCD-DT as a foundational step toward clinically deployable, uncertainty-aware digital twin systems.

Bulent Soykan, Gulsah Hancerliogullari Koksalmis, Hsin-Hsiung Huang +1

Department of Mechanical, Industrial & Manufac. Eng. The University of Toledo Toledo, OH, USA · Department of Industrial Eng. and Mngt. Systems University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · Department of Statistics and Data Science University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA +1

Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Outcome Prediction Digital Twins Alzheimer's Disease Progression Prediction

Apr 28, 2026

Threat-Oriented Digital Twinning for Security Evaluation of Autonomous Platforms

Open, unclassified research on secure autonomy is constrained by limited access to operational platforms, contested communications infrastructure, and representative adversarial test conditions. This paper presents a threat-oriented digital twinning methodology for cybersecurity evaluation of learning-enabled autonomous platforms. The approach is instantiated as an open-source, modular twin of a representative autonomy stack with separated sensing, autonomy, and supervisory-control functions; confidence-gated multi-modal perception; explicit command and telemetry trust boundaries; and runtime hold-safe behavior. The contribution is methodological: a reproducible design pattern that translates threat analysis into observable, controllable tests for spoofing, replay, malformed-input injection, degraded sensing, and adversarial ML stress. Although the implemented proxy is ground based, the architecture is intentionally framed around stack elements shared with UAV and space systems, including constrained onboard compute, intermittent or high-latency links, probabilistic perception, and mission-critical recovery behavior. The result is an implementable research scaffold for dependable and secure autonomy studies across UAV and space domains.

Thomas J. Neubert, Laxima Niure Kandel, Berker Peköz

Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Daytona Beach, FL, USA

Adversarial Robustness Cybersecurity Digital Twins

Apr 24, 2026

CognitiveTwin: Robust Multi-Modal Digital Twins for Predicting Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease

Predicting individual cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is difficult due to the heterogeneity of disease progression. Reliable clinical tools require not only high accuracy but also fairness across demographics and robustness to missing data. We present CognitiveTwin, a digital twin framework that predicts patient-specific cognitive trajectories. The model integrates multi-modal longitudinal data (cognitive scores, magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, and genetics). We use a Transformer-based architecture to fuse these modalities and a Deep Markov Model to capture temporal dynamics. We trained and evaluated the framework using data from 1,666 patients in the TADPOLE (Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative) dataset. We assessed the model for prediction error, demographic fairness, and robustness to missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data patterns. ognitiveTwin provides accurate and personalized predictions of cognitive decline. Its demonstrated fairness across patient demographics and resilience to clinical dropout make it a reliable tool for clinical trial enrichment and personalized care planning.

Bulent Soykan, Gulsah Hancerliogullari Koksalmis, Hsin-Hsiung Huang +1

Department of Mechanical, Industrial & Manufacturing Eng. The University of Toledo Toledo, OH, USA · Department of Industrial Eng. and Mngt. Systems University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · Department of Statistics and Data Science University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA +1

Alzheimer's Disease Multimodal Robustness Clinical Outcome Prediction Digital Twins Alzheimer's Disease Progression Prediction

Apr 24, 2026

Optimal sequential decision-making for error propagation mitigation in digital twins

Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics residuals, we develop a Markov Decision Process (MDP) in which the inferred regimes serve as states, corrective interventions serve as actions, and a scalar reward that takes into consideration the cost-benefit tradeoff between system fidelity and maintenance expense. The baseline transition matrix is extracted from the HMM-learned parameters. We then extend the formulation to a Partially Observable MDP (POMDP) that accounts for the imperfect nature of regime classification by maintaining a belief distribution updated via Bayesian filtering, with the HMM confusion matrix serving as the observation model. Both formulations are solved via dynamic programming and validated through Gillespie stochastic simulation. We then benchmark two model-free reinforcement learning algorithms, Q-learning and REINFORCE, to assess whether effective policies can be learned without explicit model knowledge. A systematic comparison of different intervention policies demonstrates that the MDP policy achieves the highest cumulative reward and fraction of time in nominal operation, while the POMDP recovers approximately 95% of MDP performance under realistic observation noise. Sensitivity analyses across observation quality, repair probability, and discount factor confirm the robustness of these conclusions, and the major gaps in the policy hierarchy are statistically significant at

p < 0.001

. The gap between MDP and POMDP performance quantifies the value of information providing a principled criterion for investing in improved classification accuracy.

Annice Najafi, Shokoufeh Mirzaei

Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering California State Polytechnic University, Pomona Pomona, CA, 91768, USA

Markov Decision Processes Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes Digital Twins

Apr 22, 2026

Generative Flow Networks for Model Adaptation in Digital Twins of Natural Systems

Digital twins of natural systems must remain aligned with physical systems that evolve over time, are only partially observed, and are typically modeled by mechanistic simulators whose parameters cannot be measured directly. In such settings, model adaptation is naturally posed as a simulation-based inference problem. However, sparse and indirect observations often fail to identify a unique and optimal calibration, leaving several simulator parameterizations compatible with the available evidence. This article presents a GFlowNet-based approach to model adaptation for digital twins of natural systems. We formulate adaptation as a generative modeling problem over complete simulator configurations, so that plausible parameterizations can be sampled with probability proportional to a reward derived from agreement between simulated and observed behavior. Using a controlled environment agriculture case study based on a mechanistic tomato model, we show that the learned policy recovers dominant regions of the adaptation landscape, retrieves strong calibration hypotheses, and preserves multiple plausible configurations under uncertainty.

Pascal Archambault, Houari Sahraoui, Eugene Syriani

DIRO, Université de Montréal, Quebec, Canada.

Simulation-Based Inference Model Calibration Digital Twins

Apr 22, 2026

Data-Driven Open-Loop Simulation for Digital-Twin Operator Decision Support in Wastewater Treatment

Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) need digital-twin-style decision support tools that can simulate plant response under prescribed control plans, tolerate irregular and missing sensing, and remain informative over 12-36 h planning horizons. Meeting these requirements with full-scale plant data remains an open engineering-AI challenge. We present CCSS-RS, a controlled continuous-time state-space model that separates historical state inference from future control and exogenous rollout. The model combines typed context encoding, gain-weighted forcing of prescribed and forecast drivers, semigroup-consistent rollouts, and Student-t plus hurdle outputs for heavy-tailed and zero-inflated WWTP sensor data. On the public Avedøre full-scale benchmark, with 906,815 timesteps, 43% missingness, and 1-20 min irregular sampling, CCSS-RS achieves RMSE 0.696 and CRPS 0.349 at H=1000 across 10,000 test windows. This reduces RMSE by 40-46% relative to Neural CDE baselines and by 31-35% relative to simplified internal variants. Four case studies using a frozen checkpoint on test data demonstrate operational value: oxygen-setpoint perturbations shift predicted ammonium by -2.3 to +1.4 over horizons 300-1000; a smoothed setpoint plan ranks first in multi-criterion screening; context-only sensor outages raise monitored-variable RMSE by at most 10%; and ammonium, nitrate, and oxygen remain more accurate than persistence throughout the rollout. These results establish CCSS-RS as a practical learned simulator for offline scenario screening in industrial wastewater treatment, complementary to mechanistic models.

Gary Simethy, Daniel Ortiz Arroyo, Petar Durdevic

Aalborg University, Department of Energy, Niels Bohrs Vej 8, Esbjerg, DK-6700, Denmark

Neural Surrogate Modeling Digital Twins State Space Models

Apr 20, 2026

Aether: Network Validation Using Agentic AI and Digital Twin

Network change validation remains a critical yet predominantly manual, time-consuming, and error-prone process in modern network operations. While formal network verification has made substantial progress in proving correctness properties, it is typically applied in offline, pre-deployment settings and faces challenges in accommodating continuous changes and validating live production behavior. Current operational approaches typically involve scattered testing tools, resulting in partial coverage and errors that surface only after deployment. In this paper, we present Aether, a novel approach that integrates Generative Agentic AI with a multi-functional Network Digital Twin to automate and streamline network change validation workflows. It features an agentic architecture with five specialized Network Operations AI agents that collaboratively handle the change validation lifecycle from intent analysis to network verification and testing. Aether agents use a unified Network Digital Twin integrating modeling, simulation, and emulation to maintain a consistent, up-to-date network view for verification and testing. By orchestrating agent collaboration atop this digital twin, Aether enables automated, rapid network change validation while reducing manual effort, minimizing errors, and improving operational agility and cost-effectiveness. We evaluate Aether over synthetic network change scenarios covering main classes of network changes and on past incidents from a major ISP operational network, demonstrating promising results in error detection (100%), diagnostic coverage (92-96%), and speed (6-7 minutes) over traditional methods.

Jordan Auge, Sam Betts, Giovanna Carofiglio +3

Cisco Systems · Cisco Systems, Paris, France and London, UK. · Swisscom +1

Agentic Workflows Digital Twins

Apr 16, 2026

Public and private blockchain for decentralized digital building twins and building automation system

The communication protocols and data transfer mechanisms employed by IoT devices in smart buildings and corresponding digital twin systems predominantly rely on centralized architectures. Such centralized systems are vulnerable to single points of failure, where a malfunction can disrupt operational processes. This study introduces a blockchain-based decentralized protocol to enhance the cyber resilience of IoT data transfer for digital twins and enable decentralized automation of building operations. The framework incorporates public and private blockchain technologies alongside two case studies showcasing prototypes of each system. These prototypes were validated within a real-world building environment using smart home appliances and two digital twin platforms, with their performance evaluated based on cost, scalability, data security, and privacy. The findings reveal that the Hyperledger Fabric-based system excels in terms of scalability, speed, and cost-effectiveness, while both frameworks offer advantages over traditional centralized protocols in system cyber resilience, data security, and privacy.

Reachsak Ly, Alireza Shojaei

Assistant Professor, School of Technology, Eastern Illinois University, Charleston, Illinois, United States · Assistant Professor, Myers-Lawson School of Construction, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States

Cybersecurity Digital Twins

Apr 16, 2026

Towards Trustworthy 6G Network Digital Twins: A Framework for Validating Counterfactual What-If Analysis in Edge Computing Resources

Network Digital Twins (NDTs) enable safe what-if analysis for 6G cloud-edge infrastructures, but adoption is often limited by fragmented workflows from telemetry to validation. We present a data-driven NDT framework that extends 6G-TWIN with a scalable pipeline for cloud-edge telemetry aggregation and semantic alignment into unified data models. Our contributions include: (i) scalable cloud-edge telemetry collection, (ii) regime-aware feature engineering capturing the network's scaling behavior, and (iii) a validation methodology based on Sign Agreement and Directional Sensitivity. Evaluated on a Kubernetes-managed cluster, the framework extrapolates performance to unseen high-load regimes. Results show both Deep Neural Network (DNN) and XGBoost achieve high regression accuracy (R2 > 0.99), while the XGBoost model delivers superior directional reliability (Sa > 0.90), making the NDT a trustworthy tool for proactive resource scaling in out-of-distribution scenarios.

Julian Jimenez Agudelo, Paola Soto, Ayat Zaki-Hindi +5

University of Antwerp - imec, IDLab, Belgium · Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology (LIST), Luxembourg

6G Networks Digital Twins Counterfactual Reasoning Edge-Cloud Computing

Apr 15, 2026

From Brain Models to Executable Digital Twins: Execution Semantics and Neuro-Neuromorphic Systems

Brain digital twins aim to provide faithful, individualized computational representations of brains as dynamical systems, enabling mechanistic understanding and supporting prediction of clinical interventions. Yet current approaches remain fragmented across data pipelines, model classes, temporal scales, and computing platforms, which prevents the preservation of execution semantics across the end-toend workflow. This survey introduces physically constrained executability as a unifying perspective for comparing approaches at the level of execution: whether an execution state is persistent, which events are permitted to update it (simulation, measurement, actuation), and how strongly execution is temporally and causally coupled to neurobiological dynamics. Building on modeling and simulation theory, I propose a taxonomy of execution regimes ranging from isolated offline models to coordinated co-simulation, to continuously executing digital twins sustained by online data assimilation, and ultimately to neuro-neuromorphic physical systems in which biological and computational dynamics are co-executed under shared physical constraints. The executability concept clarifies why accuracy alone is insufficient, and motivates an agenda centered on semantic interoperability, hybrid-time correctness, evaluation protocols, scalable reproducible workflows, and safe closed-loop validation. This survey adopts a systems and runtime-oriented perspective, enabling comparison of heterogeneous approaches based on their execution semantics rather than on model form or application domain alone.

Alexandre Muzy

ILLS · International Laboratory on Learning Systems (ILLS) CNRS – McGill – ETS – MILA – Université Paris-Saclay

Apr 14, 2026

GeoVision-Enabled Digital Twin for Hybrid Autonomous-Teleoperated Medical Responses

Remote medical response systems are increasingly being deployed to support emergency care in disaster-affected and infrastructure-limited environments. Enabled by GeoVision capabilities, this paper presents a Digital Twin architecture for hybrid autonomous-teleoperated medical response systems. The proposed framework integrates perception and adaptive navigation with a Digital Twin, synchronized in real-time, that mirrors system states, environmental dynamics, patient conditions, and mission objectives. Unlike traditional ground control interfaces, the Digital Twin provides remote clinical and operational users with an intuitive, continuously updated virtual representation of the platform and its operational context, enabling enhanced situational awareness and informed decision-making.

Parham Kebria, Soheil Sabri, Laura J Brattain

Electrical and Computer Engineering / North Carolina A&T State University / Greensboro, USA · Urban Digital Twin Lab, School of Modeling Simulation and Training / University of Central Florida / Orlando, USA · Department of Internal Medicine / College of Medicine, University of Central Florida / Orlando, USA

Digital Twins Robotics Robot Teleoperation

Apr 9, 2026

Bridging the Gap between Micro-scale Traffic Simulation and 4D Digital Cityscapes

While micro-scale traffic simulations provide essential data for urban planning, they are rarely coupled with the high-fidelity visualization or auralization necessary for effective stakeholder communication. In this work, we present a real-time 4D visualization framework that couples the SUMO traffic with a photorealistic, geospatially accurate VR representation of Zurich in Unreal Engine 5. Our architecture implements a robust C++ data pipeline for synchronized vehicle visualization and features an Open Sound Control (OSC) interface to support external auralization engines. We validate the framework through a user study assessing the correlation between simulated traffic dynamics and human perception. Results demonstrate a high degree of perceptual alignment, where users correctly interpret safety risks from the 4D simulation. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the inclusion of spatialized audio alters the user's sense of safety, showing the importance of multimodality in traffic simulations.

Longxiang Jiao, Lukas Hofmann, Yiru Yang +2

ETH Zurich · University of Zurich

Virtual Reality Digital Twins

Apr 9, 2026

Joint Task Offloading, Inference Optimization and UAV Trajectory Planning for Generative AI Empowered Intelligent Transportation Digital Twin

To implement the intelligent transportation digital twin (ITDT), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are scheduled to process the sensing data from the roadside sensors. At this time, generative artificial intelligence (GAI) technologies such as diffusion models are deployed on the UAVs to transform the raw sensing data into the high-quality and valuable. Therefore, we propose the GAI-empowered ITDT. The dynamic processing of a set of diffusion model inference (DMI) tasks on the UAVs with dynamic mobility simultaneously influences the DT updating fidelity and delay. In this paper, we investigate a joint optimization problem of DMI task offloading, inference optimization and UAV trajectory planning as the system utility maximization (SUM) problem to address the fidelity-delay tradeoff for the GAI-empowered ITDT. To seek a solution to the problem under the network dynamics, we model the SUM problem as the heterogeneous-agent Markov decision process, and propose the sequential update-based heterogeneous-agent twin delayed deep deterministic policy gradient (SU-HATD3) algorithm, which can quickly learn a near-optimal solution. Numerical results demonstrate that compared with several baseline algorithms, the proposed algorithm has great advantages in improving the system utility and convergence rate.

Xiaohuan Li, Junchuan Fan, Bingqi Zhang +3

Guangxi University Key Laboratory of Intelligent Networking and Scenario System (School of Information and Communication, Guilin University of Electronic Technology), Guilin 541004, China · Research Institute of Highway Ministry of Transport, Beijing 100000, China · School of Automation, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China +1

Intelligent Transportation Systems Digital Twins UAV Trajectory Optimization Efficient Inference Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Apr 8, 2026

Dual-Loop Control in DCVerse: Advancing Reliable Deployment of AI in Data Centers via Digital Twins

The growing scale and complexity of modern data centers present major challenges in balancing energy efficiency with outage risk. Although Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) shows strong potential for intelligent control, its deployment in mission-critical systems is limited by data scarcity and the lack of real-time pre-evaluation mechanisms. This paper introduces the Dual-Loop Control Framework (DLCF), a digital twin-based architecture designed to overcome these challenges. The framework comprises three core entities: the physical system, a digital twin, and a policy reservoir of diverse DRL agents. These components interact through a dual-loop mechanism involving real-time data acquisition, data assimilation, DRL policy training, pre-evaluation, and expert verification. Theoretical analysis shows how DLCF can improve sample efficiency, generalization, safety, and optimality. Leveraging DLCF, we implemented the DCVerse platform and validated it through case studies on a real-world data center cooling system. The evaluation shows that our approach achieves up to 4.09% energy savings over conventional control strategies without violating SLA requirements. Additionally, the framework improves policy interpretability and supports more trustworthy DRL deployment. This work provides a foundation for reliable AI-based control in data centers and points toward future extensions for holistic, system-wide optimization.

Qingang Zhang, Yuejun Yan, Guangyu Wu +4

College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University, 639798, Singapore · Alibaba Group, Hangzhou, 311121, China

RL Control Digital Twins Safe RL Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Control

Apr 8, 2026

SYN-DIGITS: A Synthetic Control Framework for Calibrated Digital Twin Simulation

AI-based persona simulation -- often referred to as digital twin simulation -- is increasingly used for market research, recommender systems, and social sciences. Despite their flexibility, large language models (LLMs) often exhibit systematic bias and miscalibration relative to real human behavior, limiting their reliability. Inspired by synthetic control methods from causal inference, we propose SYN-DIGITS (SYNthetic Control Framework for Calibrated DIGItal Twin Simulation), a principled and lightweight calibration framework that learns latent structure from digital-twin responses and transfers it to align predictions with human ground truth. SYN-DIGITS operates as a post-processing layer on top of any LLM-based simulator and thus is model-agnostic. We develop a latent factor model that formalizes when and why calibration succeeds through latent space alignment conditions, and we systematically evaluate ten calibration methods across thirteen persona constructions, three LLMs, and two datasets. SYN-DIGITS supports both individual-level and distributional simulation for previously unseen questions and unobserved populations, with provable error guarantees. Experiments show that SYN-DIGITS achieves up to 50% relative improvements in individual-level correlation and 50--90% relative reductions in distributional discrepancy compared to uncalibrated baselines.

Grace Jiarui Fan, Chengpiao Huang, Tianyi Peng +2

Finance Division, Columbia Business School. · Department of IEOR, Columbia University · Decision, Risk, and Operations Division, Columbia Business School. +1

Synthetic Control Language Model Calibration Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation Human Behavior Simulation Digital Twins

Apr 8, 2026

Graph Neural ODE Digital Twins for Control-Oriented Reactor Thermal-Hydraulic Forecasting Under Partial Observability

Real-time supervisory control of advanced reactors requires accurate forecasting of plant-wide thermal-hydraulic states, including locations where physical sensors are unavailable. Meeting this need calls for surrogate models that combine predictive fidelity, millisecond-scale inference, and robustness to partial observability. In this work, we present a physics-informed message-passing Graph Neural Network coupled with a Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (GNN-ODE) to addresses all three requirements simultaneously. We represent the whole system as a directed sensor graph whose edges encode hydraulic connectivity through flow/heat transfer-aware message passing, and we advance the latent dynamics in continuous time via a controlled Neural ODE. A topology-guided missing-node initializer reconstructs uninstrumented states at rollout start; prediction then proceeds fully autoregressively. The GNN-ODE surrogate achieves satisfactory results for the system dynamics prediction. On held-out simulation transients, the surrogate achieves an average MAE of 0.91 K at 60 s and 2.18 K at 300 s for uninstrumented nodes, with

R^2

up to 0.995 for missing-node state reconstruction. Inference runs at approximately 105 times faster than simulated time on a single GPU, enabling 64-member ensemble rollouts for uncertainty quantification. To assess sim-to-real transfer, we adapt the pretrained surrogate to experimental facility data using layerwise discriminative fine-tuning with only 30 training sequences. The learned flow-dependent heat-transfer scaling recovers a Reynolds-number exponent consistent with established correlations, indicating constitutive learning beyond trajectory fitting. The model tracks a steep power change transient and produces accurate trajectories at uninstrumented locations.

Akzhol Almukhametov, Doyeong Lim, Rui Hu +1

Department of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA · Argonne National Laboratory, Nuclear Science and Engineering Division, USA

Surrogate Modeling Digital Twins Physics-Informed GNNs Neural ODEs

Apr 8, 2026

TwinLoop: Simulation-in-the-Loop Digital Twins for Online Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Decentralised online learning enables runtime adaptation in cyber-physical multi-agent systems, but when operating conditions change, learned policies often require substantial trial-and-error interaction before recovering performance. To address this, we propose TwinLoop, a simulation-in-the-loop digital twin framework for online multi-agent reinforcement learning. When a context shift occurs, the digital twin is triggered to reconstruct the current system state, initialise from the latest agent policies, and perform accelerated policy improvement with simulation what-if analysis before synchronising updated parameters back to the agents in the physical system. We evaluate TwinLoop in a vehicular edge computing task-offloading scenario with changing workload and infrastructure conditions. The results suggest that digital twins can improve post-shift adaptation efficiency and reduce reliance on costly online trial-and-error.

Nan Zhang, Zishuo Wang, Shuyu Huang +4

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China · Research Institute of Trustworthy Autonomous Systems, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China · Department of Informatics and Telecommunications, University of Thessaly, Lamia, Greece

Digital Twins Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Decentralized MARL

Apr 7, 2026

Bridging Natural Language and Microgrid Dynamics: A Context-Aware Simulator and Dataset

Addressing the critical need for intelligent, context-aware energy management in renewable systems, we introduce the OpenCEM Simulator and Dataset: the first open-source digital twin explicitly designed to integrate rich, unstructured contextual information with quantitative renewable energy dynamics. Traditional energy management relies heavily on numerical time series, thereby neglecting the significant predictive power embedded in human-generated context (e.g., event schedules, system logs, user intentions). OpenCEM bridges this gap by offering a unique platform comprising both a meticulously aligned, language-rich dataset from a real-world PV-and-battery microgrid installation and a modular simulator capable of natively processing this multi-modal context. The OpenCEM Simulator provides a high-fidelity environment for developing and validating novel control algorithms and prediction models, particularly those leveraging Large Language Models. We detail its component-based architecture, hybrid data-driven and physics-based modelling capabilities, and demonstrate its utility through practical examples, including context-aware load forecasting and the implementation of online optimal battery charging control strategies. By making this platform publicly available, OpenCEM aims to accelerate research into the next generation of intelligent, sustainable, and truly context-aware energy systems.

Tinko Sebastian Bartels, Ruixiang Wu, Xinyu Lu +5

School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China. · Department of Mechanical and Automation Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.

Power Systems Digital Twins

Apr 5, 2026

2026 Roadmap on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Smart Manufacturing

The evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) is reshaping smart manufacturing by providing new capabilities for efficiency, adaptability, and autonomy across industrial value chains. However, the deployment of AI and ML in industrial settings still faces critical challenges, including the complexity of industrial big data, effective data management, integration with heterogeneous sensing and control systems, and the demand for trustworthy, explainable, and reliable operation in high-stakes industrial environments. In this roadmap, we present a comprehensive perspective on the foundations, applications, and emerging directions of AI and ML in smart manufacturing. It is structured in three parts. The first highlights the foundations and trends that frame the evolution of AI in smart manufacturing. The second focuses on key topics where AI is already enabling advances, including industrial big data analytics, advanced sensing and perception, autonomous systems, additive and laser-based manufacturing, digital twins, robotics, supply chain and logistics optimization, and sustainable manufacturing. The third section explores non-traditional ML approaches that are opening new frontiers, such as physics-informed AI, generative AI, semantic AI, advanced digital twins, explainable AI, RAMS, data-centric metrology, LLMs, and foundation models for highly connected and complex manufacturing systems. By identifying both opportunities and remaining barriers across these areas, this roadmap outlines the advances needed in methods, integration strategies, and industrial adoption. We hope this roadmap will serve as a guide for researchers, engineers, and practitioners to accelerate innovation, align academic and industrial priorities, and ensure that AI-driven smart manufacturing delivers reliable, sustainable, and scalable impact for the future of manufacturing ecosystems.

Jay Lee, Hanqi Su, Marco Macchi +51

Smart Manufacturing Manufacturing Digital Twins

Apr 5, 2026

A physics-informed, behavior-aware digital twin for robust multimodal forecasting of core body temperature in precision livestock farming

Precision livestock farming requires accurate and timely heat stress prediction to ensure animal welfare and optimize farm management. This study presents a physics-informed digital twin (DT) framework combined with an uncertainty-aware, expert-weighted stacked ensemble for multimodal forecasting of Core Body Temperature (CBT) in dairy cattle. Using the high-frequency, heterogeneous MmCows dataset, the DT integrates an ordinary differential equation (ODE)-based thermoregulation model that simulates metabolic heat production and dissipation, a Gaussian process for capturing cow-specific deviations, a Kalman filter for aligning predictions with real-time sensor data, and a behavioral Markov chain that models activity-state transitions under varying environmental conditions. The DT outputs key physiological indicators, such as predicted CBT, heat stress probability, and behavioral state distributions are fused with raw sensor data and enriched through multi-scale temporal analysis and cross-modal feature engineering to form a comprehensive feature set. The predictive methodology is designed in a three-stage stacked ensemble, where stage 1 trains modality-specific LightGBM 'expert' models on distinct feature groups, stage 2 collects their predictions as meta-features, and at stage 3 Optuna-tuned LightGBM meta-model yields the final CBT forecast. Predictive uncertainty is quantified via bootstrapping and validated using Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP). Ablation analysis confirms that incorporating DT-derived features and multimodal fusion substantially enhances performance. The proposed framework achieves a cross-validated R2 of 0.783, F1 score of 84.25% and PICP of 92.38% for 2-hour ahead forecasting, providing a robust, uncertainty-aware, and physically principled system for early heat stress detection and precision livestock management.

Riasad Alvi, Mohaimenul Azam Khan Raiaan, Sadia Sultana Chowa +6

Applied Artificial INtelligence and Intelligent Systems (AAIINS) Laboratory, Dhaka 1217, Bangladesh · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, United International University, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh · Department of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Monash University, Melbourne 3800, Australia +5

Precision Livestock Farming Time Series Forecasting Digital Twins Uncertainty-Aware Multimodal Fusion Physics-Informed ML

Apr 3, 2026

An Intelligent Fault Diagnosis Method for General Aviation Aircraft Based on Multi-Fidelity Digital Twin and FMEA Knowledge Enhancement

Fault diagnosis of general aviation aircraft faces challenges including scarce real fault data, diverse fault types, and weak fault signatures. This paper proposes an intelligent fault diagnosis framework based on multi-fidelity digital twin, integrating four modules: high-fidelity flight dynamics simulation, FMEA-driven fault injection, multi-fidelity residual feature extraction, and large language model (LLM)-enhanced interpretable report generation. A digital twin is constructed using the JSBSim six-degree-of-freedom (6-DoF) flight dynamics engine, generating 23-channel engine health monitoring data via semi-empirical sensor synthesis equations. A three-layer fault injection engine based on failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) models the physical causal propagation of 19 engine fault types. A multi-fidelity residual computation framework comprising paired-mirror residuals and GRU surrogate prediction residuals is proposed: the high-fidelity path obtains clean fault deviation signals using nominal mirror trajectories with identical initial conditions, while the low-fidelity path achieves online real-time residual computation through a multi-step prediction GRU surrogate model. A 1D-CNN classifier performs end-to-end diagnosis of 20 fault classes. An LLM diagnostic report engine enhanced with FMEA knowledge fuses classification results, residual evidence, and domain causal knowledge to generate interpretable natural language reports. Experiments show the paired-mirror residual scheme achieves a Macro-F1 of 96.2% on the 20-class task, while the GRU surrogate scheme achieves 4.3x inference acceleration at only 0.6% performance cost. Comparison across 24 schemes reveals that residual feature quality contributes approximately 5x more to diagnostic performance than classifier architecture, establishing the "residual quality first" design principle.

Zhihuan Wei, Yang Hu, Xinhang Chen +3

Hangzhou International Innovation Institute, Beihang University, Hangzhou, China · School of Mechanical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · School of Reliability and Systems Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China +1

Fault Diagnosis Digital Twins Multifidelity Modeling

Apr 2, 2026

Transformer self-attention encoder-decoder with multimodal deep learning for response time series forecasting and digital twin support in wind structural health monitoring

The wind-induced structural response forecasting capabilities of a novel transformer methodology are examined here. The model also provides a digital twin component for bridge structural health monitoring. Firstly, the approach uses the temporal characteristics of the system to train a forecasting model. Secondly, the vibration predictions are compared to the measured ones to detect large deviations. Finally, the identified cases are used as an early-warning indicator of structural change. The artificial intelligence-based model outperforms approaches for response forecasting as no assumption on wind stationarity or on structural normal vibration behavior is needed. Specifically, wind-excited dynamic behavior suffers from uncertainty related to obtaining poor predictions when the environmental or traffic conditions change. This results in a hard distinction of what constitutes normal vibration behavior. To this end, a framework is rigorously examined on real-world measurements from the Hardanger Bridge monitored by the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. The approach captures accurate structural behavior in realistic conditions, and with respect to the changes in the system excitation. The results, importantly, highlight the potential of transformer-based digital twin components to serve as next-generation tools for resilient infrastructure management, continuous learning, and adaptive monitoring over the system's lifecycle with respect to temporal characteristics.

Feiyu Zhou, Marios Impraimakis

Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Bath, BA2 7AY Bath, UK · Department of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

Structural Health Monitoring Digital Twins Time Series Transformers Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Apr 1, 2026

The Digital Twin Counterfactual Framework: A Validation Architecture for Simulated Potential Outcomes

The fundamental problem of causal inference - that the counterfactual outcome for any individual is never observed - has shaped the entire methodology of the field. Every existing approach substitutes assumptions for missing data: ignorability, parallel trends, exclusion restrictions. None produces the counterfactual itself. This paper proposes the Digital Twin Counterfactual Framework (DTCF): rather than estimating the counterfactual statistically, we simulate it using a digital twin and subject the simulation to a hierarchical validation regime. We formalize the digital twin simulator as a stochastic mapping within the potential outcomes framework and introduce a hierarchy of twin fidelity assumptions - from marginal fidelity through joint fidelity to structural fidelity - each unlocking a progressively richer class of estimands. The central contribution is threefold. First, a five-level validation architecture converts the unfalsifiable claim that the simulator produces correct counterfactuals into falsifiable tests against observable data. Second, a formal decomposition separates causal quantities into those that are marginally validated (ATE, CATE, QTE - testable through observable-arm comparison) and those that are copula-dependent (the ITE distribution, probability of benefit/harm, variance of treatment effects - permanently reliant on the unobservable within-individual dependence structure). Third, bounding, sensitivity, and uncertainty quantification tools make the copula dependence explicit. The DTCF does not resolve the fundamental problem of causal inference. What it provides is a framework in which marginal causal claims become increasingly testable, joint causal claims become explicitly assumption-indexed, and the gap between the two is formally characterized.

Olav Laudy

Counterfactual Evaluation Causal Effect Estimation Causal Reasoning Causal Identifiability Digital Twins

Mar 28, 2026

Autonomous Agent-Orchestrated Digital Twins (AADT): Leveraging the OpenClaw Framework for State Synchronization in Rare Genetic Disorders

Background: Medical Digital Twins (MDTs) are computational representations of individual patients that integrate clinical, genomic, and physiological data to support diagnosis, treatment planning, and outcome prediction. However, most MDTs remain static or passively updated, creating a critical synchronization gap, especially in rare genetic disorders where phenotypes, genomic interpretations, and care guidelines evolve over time. Methods: We propose an agent-orchestrated digital twin framework using OpenClaw's proactive "heartbeat" mechanism and modular Agent Skills. This Autonomous Agent-orchestrated Digital Twin (AADT) system continuously monitors local and external data streams (e.g., patient-reported phenotypes and updates in variant classification databases) and executes automated workflows for data ingestion, normalization, state updates, and trigger-based analysis. Results: A prototype implementation demonstrates that agent orchestration can continuously synchronize MDT states with both longitudinal phenotype updates and evolving genomic knowledge. In rare disease settings, this enables earlier diagnosis and more accurate modeling of disease progression. We present two case studies, including variant reinterpretation and longitudinal phenotype tracking, highlighting how AADTs support timely, auditable updates for both research and clinical care. Conclusion: The AADT framework addresses the key bottleneck of real-time synchronization in MDTs, enabling scalable and continuously updated patient models. We also discuss data security considerations and mitigation strategies through human-in-the-loop system design.

Hongzhuo Chen, Zhanliang Wang, Quan M. Nguyen +3

Raymond G. Perelman Center for Cellular and Molecular Therapeutics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA · Applied Mathematics and Computational Science Graduate Program, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, 19104, USA · Bioengineering Graduate Program, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA +2

Digital Twins Multi-Agent Orchestration

Mar 27, 2026

GLU: Global-Local-Uncertainty Fusion for Scalable Spatiotemporal Reconstruction and Forecasting

Digital twins of complex physical systems are expected to infer unobserved states from sparse measurements and predict their evolution in time, yet these two functions are typically treated as separate tasks. Here we present GLU, a Global-Local-Uncertainty framework that formulates sparse reconstruction and dynamic forecasting as a unified state-representation problem and introduces a structured latent assembly to both tasks. The central idea is to build a structured latent state that combines a global summary of system-level organization, local tokens anchored to available measurements, and an uncertainty-driven importance field that weights observations according to the physical informativeness. For reconstruction, GLU uses importance-aware adaptive neighborhood selection to retrieve locally relevant information while preserving global consistency and allowing flexible query resolution on arbitrary geometries. Across a suite of challenging benchmarks, GLU consistently improves reconstruction fidelity over reduced-order, convolutional, neural operator, and attention-based baselines, better preserving multi-scale structures. For forecasting, a hierarchical Leader-Follower Dynamics module evolves the latent state with substantially reduced memory growth, maintains stable rollout behavior and delays error accumulation in nonlinear dynamics. On a realistic turbulent combustion dataset, it further preserves not only sharp fronts and broadband structures in multiple physical fields, but also their cross-channel thermo-chemical couplings. Scalability tests show that these gains are achieved with substantially lower memory growth than comparable attention-based baselines. Together, these results establish GLU as a flexible and computationally practical paradigm for sparse digital twins.

Linzheng Wang, Jason Chen, Nicolas Tricard +2

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 02139, MA, United States of America.

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Digital Twins State Representation Learning