Optimal Sample Complexity

Model evaluations may fix all tests before observing any responses or select later tests using earlier responses. We study this choice in a conditional-query model on a finite outcome space $\mathcal{X}$ with $|\mathcal{X}|=N$. We first ask which pairs of distribution classes can be reliably distinguished. We then ask how many additional queries are required to match an adaptive tester when all queried events must be fixed in advance. We show that learnability holds if and only if the two classes have positive separation in their pairwise conditional probabilities. When this separation is zero, the optimal worst-case error is exactly $1/2$ at every finite query budget. For any $T$-query adaptive policy and any $ρ\in (0,1)$, we construct a randomized non-adaptive procedure using $O(N^2(T + \log(1/ρ)))$ pair queries chosen before any response is observed. Its simulated transcript is within $ρ$ in total variation of the adaptive transcript, uniformly over all distributions in the model. We also construct a matching family with constant adaptive query complexity and $Ω_\varepsilon(N^2)$ non-adaptive query complexity. Consequently, the worst-case fixed-error adaptivity gap is $Θ_\varepsilon(N^2)$. Thus interaction can reduce the required number of tests by a quadratic factor, but the apparent exponential branching of an interactive evaluation does not yield an exponential query advantage.

The paper addresses several ranking-dependent decision support methods. Ordinal information on compared objects can be used to improve the quality of expert data during estimation and help reduce the number of comparisons that the experts need to perform. In the paper we compare three incomplete ranking-dependent pair-wise comparison patterns which can be used in the Analytic Hierarchy Process - Best-worst method, Best-Second Best (Top 2) method, and the original maximum difference method. The first two comparison patterns (and respective methods) are incomplete, while the third can be a complete one. We determine conditions under which these three methods can be compared in terms of stability to expert errors. We also present the results of a simulation-type experiment, in which the three methods are compared. The research allows us to define the most stable incomplete ranking-dependent pair-wise comparison pattern and reduce the number of comparisons without loss of credibility of expert session results. The research contributes to algorithmic, cognitive, and applied aspects of decision support in uncertain environments.

Local Differential Privacy (LDP) provides strong privacy guarantees for collecting numerical data. A fundamental challenge, however, is that existing LDP mechanisms require a predefined data domain, which is often unknown in practice. This lack of prior knowledge creates a critical dilemma for the data collector: if the chosen domain is too narrow, values outside the range are clipped, leading to information loss. Conversely, if the domain is too wide, excessive noise is added during the privatization process, which degrades the quality of collected data. This highlights the need for methods that can dynamically estimate the data domain. In this work, we propose an adaptive LDP framework that addresses this problem. In our method, each user sends two pieces of information: their perturbed numerical data, and a privatized signal indicating if their original value was clipped by the current domain. By aggregating these signals, our proposed method, Adaptive Bounding of Clipping regions (ABC) method, iteratively adjusts the domain to fit the underlying data distribution without prior knowledge. Our theoretical analysis shows that the estimated data domain converges to an appropriate range. In the empirical evaluation, the results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the quality of numerical data collection across various datasets and underlying LDP mechanisms. We also show that the estimated range successfully converges in practice and our approach is robust to its hyperparameters through comprehensive ablation studies.

We settle the exact complexity of the reachability problem in (stateless) vector addition systems (VAS) in fixed low dimension. In dimensions 2-4 it has only been known to be sandwiched between NP and PSPACE. We prove PSPACE-hardness of the reachability problem for symmetric vector addition systems in dimension 3 (3-VAS), a restricted fragment of general 3-VAS. Combined with previously established PSPACE upper bounds, our result settles the complexity of the problem to be PSPACE-complete in 3-VAS and 4-VAS, as well as in their symmetric fragments.

We study distributionally robust PAC learning for the $0$--$1$-loss, where adversarial perturbations of the data distribution are constrained by a Cressie--Read divergence of order $k>1$ and radius $ρ\geq 0$. For hypothesis classes with VC dimension $d$, we establish realizable and agnostic sample-complexity bounds tight up to constant and logarithmic factors, respectively; ordinary empirical risk minimization attains both rates up to logarithmic factors. For target accuracy $\varepsilon\in(0,1)$ and confidence $δ\in(0,1)$, their respective orders are $$\max\!\left\{\frac{1}{\varepsilon}, \frac{ρ^{\frac 1{k-1}}}{\varepsilon^{k_\star}} \right\}\cdot(d+\log δ^{-1}) \qquad\text{and}\qquad \max\!\left\{\frac{1}{\varepsilon^2}, \frac{ρ^{\frac1{k-1}}}{\varepsilon^{k_\star\vee 2}} \right\}\cdot(d+\log δ^{-1}),$$ where $k_\star={k}/{(k-1)}$. For every fixed $ρ>0$, robustness changes the realizable $\varepsilon$-dependence from $\varepsilon^{-1}$ to $\varepsilon^{-k_\star}$ as $\varepsilon\downarrow0$. In the agnostic case, for $1<k<2$, robustness changes the $\varepsilon$-dependence from $\varepsilon^{-2}$ to $\varepsilon^{-k_\star}$, whereas for $k\geq2$ the exponent remains the classical $2$, with nontrivial $ρ$-dependence. Building on the known scalar reduction of robust $0$--$1$ risk to ordinary classification error, our analysis reveals a scale-sensitive interaction between the statistical estimation of classification error and its amplification by robustness, sharply explaining the transition in the agnostic rate. We extend the previously studied $χ^2$-divergence case to every Cressie--Read order $k>1$, close its upper--lower gaps, and recover standard PAC learning rates as $ρ\to0$, unlike previous bounds that fail to interpolate correctly in this limit.

Calibration requires a predictor to be unbiased after conditioning on its own predictions. Multicalibration asks for this guarantee simultaneously across a collection of groups. Many prediction tasks ask for several related features of the same conditional outcome distribution: variance is defined relative to the mean, skewness relative to both mean and variance, and conditional value at risk relative to a quantile. We study multicalibration for a sequence of $k$ properties in which each property is identifiable once the preceding properties are fixed. This framework includes Bayes pairs but does not require the properties to arise from a single loss. For every fixed $k\ge2$, we establish matching upper and lower sample-complexity bounds up to logarithmic factors under regularity conditions. Even with only polylogarithmically many binary groups, achieving multicalibration error $\varepsilon$ requires $\widetildeΩ(\varepsilon^{-(k+2)})$ samples. Conversely, for any finite group family $\mathcal G$, we give a randomized learner using $O(\varepsilon^{-(k+2)}+\varepsilon^{-2}\log|\mathcal G|)$ samples. Thus the sample complexity is $\widetildeΘ(\varepsilon^{-(k+2)})$ for polynomial-size group families. We instantiate the theory for three canonical examples.

Modern large language models - transformers and diffusion language models - are built around two canonical algorithmic tasks: prediction and generation. We prove unconditional separations between low-depth quantum computation and the corresponding bounded-resource classical language-model architectures in both regimes. Concretely, we exhibit the following: 1. Distributional separation. We give a distribution that is sampleable by $\textsf{QNC}^0$ circuits (i.e., a family of constant-depth quantum circuits consisting of bounded fan-in gates) that no constant-round diffusion language model ($\textsf{DLM}$) with shallow scheduling and denoising can sample within constant distance, even when allowed sublinear chain-of-thought and output-token revision/remasking events, the very features modern $\textsf{DLM}$s rely on. 2. Functional separation. We exhibit a function computable in $\land \circ \textsf{QNC}^0[\log\log n]$ (i.e., a family of O$(\log\log n)$-depth $\textsf{QNC}^0$ circuits, where $n$ is the input length, followed by a single classical $\mathsf{AND}$ gate) such that any constant-depth decoder-only transformer computing the function must be large: it would have to have width $n^{Ω(1)}$. Together, our work initiates the study of quantum advantage in the era of large language models.

In recent work, Marcussen, Rubinfeld, and Sudan introduced the notion of quality control problems, which aim to capture the task of determining if a given input is truly random. Formally, their goal is to accept typical inputs from the specified distribution while rejecting every input whose value of a specified statistic is far from the distributional baseline. This captures the empirical practice of using specified statistics as a proxy for the quality of randomness. Empirical algorithms, however, have not exploited the asymmetry in the definition of quality control problems, which require soundness guarantees in the worst-case while only seeking average-case completeness. Their work abstracted a problem definition emphasizing this asymmetry and used it to give efficient quality control algorithms for assessing the randomness of graphs. In this work, we introduce and study quality control problems over sequences, where the goal is to distinguish a sequence of i.i.d. characters from sequences where some specified pattern appears too often (or too infrequently) as a subsequence. We consider this problem in both the finite-alphabet setting and for real-valued sequences. We refer to the former setting as the pattern counting problem. In the latter case, the natural notion of a pattern is to consider the relative ordering of the characters in the subsequence, and we refer to this as the permutation pattern counting problem. Algorithms to approximately count (permutation) patterns of length $k$ in a worst-case sequence of length $n$ can provably require exponential in $k$ queries into the sequence. In contrast, we show that by taking advantage of the asymmetry in the definition of quality control, we give algorithms that run in poly$(k)$ time to solve these problems. We also prove that any quality control algorithm (over some natural distributions) requires superlinear queries in $k$.

For $n$ unit vectors $x_1,\ldots,x_n \in \mathbb{R}^d$, we study the continuous ReLU derivative Gram matrix $H$, whose entries are obtained by averaging pairwise gated inner products over a standard Gaussian direction. Writing $Δ_\pm := \min_{i \neq j} \min\{ \|x_i-x_j\|_2, \|x_i+x_j\|_2 \}$ for their projective separation, we prove the universal dimension-free lower bound $λ_{\min}(H) = Ω( Δ_\pm/\sqrt{\log n} )$. Conversely, we construct worst-case families satisfying the matching upper bound $λ_{\min}(H) = O( Δ_\pm/\sqrt{\log n} )$, showing that this rate is tight up to universal constants.

In [AS21], Axiotis and Sviridenko conjectured that the linear dependence on the restricted condition number in sparse convex optimization cannot be improved by a polynomial-time algorithm. We establish their conjectured lower bound for least-squares objectives, conditional on the randomized exact-volume Small-Set Expansion Hypothesis in the weighted regular-graph formulation of Raghavendra, Steurer, and Tulsiani [RST12]. Concretely, for every fixed $γ\in(0,1]$, there is no randomized polynomial-time algorithm that, with probability at least $2/3$, returns a vector $x$ such that, writing $s=\lVert x\rVert_0$, $$\lVert Ax-b\rVert_2^2 \leq \min_{\lVert z\rVert_0\leq k}\lVert Az-b\rVert_2^2+\varepsilon \quad\text{and}\quad s=O\!\left(k\,κ_{s+k}^{\,1-γ}\right),$$ where $κ_r$ is the restricted condition number at sparsity level $r$. The result holds even on rational instances with $A$ of full column rank. The proof was first obtained using a fully automated Gemini-based agentic system developed internally at Google. The authors have verified the proof and edited it for clarity of presentation.

This paper is concerned with one-bit mean estimation, where each independent sample is represented by a single binary message. We consider distributions on $\mathbb{R}$ with mean in $[-λ,λ]$ and absolute $k$-th central moment at most $σ^k$, where $k>1$ is fixed. For this class, previous work attained the optimal sample complexity for general queries using a two-stage protocol. The first stage localizes the mean. The second-stage queries are chosen after localization and refine the estimate around the decoded center. We show that this interaction can be avoided by constructing a randomized fully non-adaptive protocol that fixes all queries before observing the data and matches the optimal adaptive sample complexity. For target accuracy $ε$ and confidence $1-δ$, its sample complexity scales as $$\log\fracλσ + \begin{cases} (σ/ε)^2\log(1/δ), & k>2,\\ (σ/ε)^2\log(σ/ε)\log(1/δ), & k=2,\\ (σ/ε)^{k/(k-1)}\log(1/δ), & 1<k<2, \end{cases}$$ up to constants depending only on $k$. In the range covered by the known lower bound, this rate is minimax optimal even among fully adaptive protocols. This gives a negative answer to the COLT 2026 open problem asking whether interaction is necessary for order-optimal one-bit mean estimation with general queries \citep[Open Problem~1]{lau2026open}.

We provide new estimates in Wasserstein distance for the asymptotic bias of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm, in the classical setting of log-smooth strongly log-concave measures. Our bound implies a Wasserstein mixing time of order $κ\sqrt{d}/\varepsilon$, where $κ$ is the condition number, $d$ is the dimension, and $\varepsilon$ is the target precision: this improves by a factor of $\sqrt{d}/\varepsilon$ over the previous state-of-the-art results.

We study the round complexity of learning a hidden partition $\mathcal{P}$ of an $n$-element universe using PAIR queries: PAIR($x,y$) tells us whether $x$ and $y$ belong to the same part of the partition or not. While it is easy to learn using $n|\mathcal{P}|$ queries using a basic algorithm and this query complexity is optimal, this basic algorithm is highly sequential. Black, Mazumdar, and Saha [COLT 2025] recently gave tight deterministic round/query tradeoffs when the number of parts of $\mathcal{P}$ is known. In particular they prove $Θ(\log\log n)$ rounds are sufficient and necessary to limit the number of queries to $n|\mathcal{P}|$. They leave proving a randomized lower bound as an open direction. We show that randomization dramatically changes the picture. When the number of parts $k = |\mathcal{P}|$ is known, we give a simple 3-round randomized algorithm using $O(nk\log n)$ queries with high probability, and prove that 2 rounds require $Ω(n^{4/3}k^{2/3})$ queries -- the same as deterministic algorithms. We also study a more general setting where the number of parts is unknown. In this case, we give a 4-round randomized algorithm using $O(n|\mathcal P|\log^2 n)$ queries with high probability, and prove that 3-rounds cannot achieve near-optimal query complexity. Furthermore, we show an even bigger separation in this regime between randomized and deterministic algorithms: for the latter, $Θ(\log n/\log\log n)$ rounds are necessary and sufficient to obtain near-optimal query complexity.

This paper answers the one-dimensional local root anti-concentration questions posed by Balcan, Pegden, and Sharma in the context of online optimization of piecewise-Lipschitz functions. For a homogeneous feature curve and coefficients whose density relative to the uniform law on a symmetric convex body $K$ is bounded by $A$, we show that the worst-case interval-hitting constant equals $A$ times a section-averaged projective incidence speed. For cube-supported coefficients, this speed is equivalent, up to universal constants, to the projective Lipschitz constant. This yields a sharp, dimension-free characterization and removes the previous $\sqrt N$ loss. For monic degree-$d$ polynomials under arbitrary coefficient laws, we prove that the interval-hitting constant is finite if and only if the ordered real-root laws have bounded densities, with a factor-$d$ comparison that is sharp. Conditional and joint coefficient-space area formulas, together with a two-chart certificate, make this criterion verifiable for dependent and singular coefficient laws. We also give two graph-learning applications that complete the transition-to-regret chain. A cost-sensitive Gaussian-RBF harmonic classifier uses the projective incidence theorem and achieves expected regret $\widetilde O((An^2D e^{BD}/\ell+1)\sqrt T)$. A common-offset polynomial-kernel model uses rigid translation of the ordered roots and achieves $\widetilde O((qn^2κ+1)\sqrt T)$ regret, even when the induced coefficient law is singular in the ambient coefficient space.

Language generation in the limit is a theoretical framework for studying how a generator can learn to produce new valid strings from a stream of positive examples. In this model, an adversary chooses an unknown language from a countable family and enumerates its elements in an arbitrary order, while the generator must eventually output only elements of the language that have not yet appeared in the enumeration. Reliable generation is thus formalized through two eventual guarantees: validity and novelty relative to the observed data. To further quantify the breadth of the generator's outputs, Kleinberg and Wei (FOCS 2025, STOC 2026) introduced lower density as a measure of output coverage. Given an order representing the importance or relevance of possible outputs, lower density is the asymptotic lower bound, as $n$ grows, on the fraction of the first $n$ elements of the target language that the generator outputs before they appear in the data. Kleinberg and Wei showed that $1/2$ is the optimal lower-density guarantee for deterministic algorithms. We develop a simple and unified framework for obtaining optimal lower-density guarantees. We first give a deterministic algorithm that recovers the optimal guarantee of $1/2$ with a significantly simpler analysis than prior work. We then demonstrate the flexibility of our framework through two extensions. First, against an oblivious adversary, randomization raises the optimal guarantee to $1-1/e$. Second, for any finite collection of orders, the optimal deterministic and randomized guarantees can be achieved simultaneously with respect to every order, so accommodating multiple notions of importance or relevance entails no loss in the optimal guarantee.

This paper studies active regression for single-index models under general $\ell_p$-loss with an unknown $1$-Lipschitz link function $f$, formulated as $\min_{f,x} \|f(Ax)-b\|_p^p$ with full access to $A$ but coordinate-query access to $b$. Prior work established upper bounds for known link functions for all $p\geq 1$ and for unknown link functions only in the $p=2$ case, together with lower bounds for $p\leq 2$. This work addresses the more challenging setting of unknown link functions and general $p \geq 1$. A non-adaptive sampling algorithm is presented that achieves a $(1+ε)$-approximation using $O(d^{p/2\vee 1}/ε^{p\vee 2}\operatorname{poly}\log(n/ε))$ queries. Nearly tight lower bounds are also established for $p>2$. These results close much of the remaining gap in active $\ell_p$-regression for single-index models.

{AdaBoost.MH} reduces multi-class classification to a collection of binary subproblems and enjoys the classical boosting-type convergence guarantee under a weak learning condition. A more structured variant, Factorized {AdaBoost.MH}, uses base classifiers of the form $\mathbf{h}(x)=α\mathbf{v} \bm{\varphi}(x)$, where a single binary classifier $\bm{\varphi}$ is shared across all classes and the label dependence is carried by a vote vector $\mathbf{v} \in\{\pm1\}^K$. This factorization is algorithmically attractive and achieves better performance in practice, but its convergence depends on whether one can always choose a vote vector with sufficiently large induced binary weight mass. Previous work resolved this question with a lower bound $\max\{1/n,1/\sqrt{2K}\}$, which still leaves a dimension-dependent slowdown relative to the original {AdaBoost.MH} analysis. In this paper, we sharpen this combinatorial step. For the minimax quantity $\mathfrak{W}_{n,K}$ governing the factorized edge, we prove $\mathfrak{W}_{n,K} = C_{\min\{n+1,K\}}$, where $C_q=1$ for $q=1$, $C_q=q/(3q-4)$ for even $q\ge2$, and $C_q=(q+1)/(3q-1)$ for odd $q\ge2$. Since $C_q\downarrow 1/3$, our bounds show that $\mathfrak{W}_{n,K}=Θ(1)$ uniformly over $n$ and $K$. Consequently, Factorized {AdaBoost.MH} achieves the same boosting-type convergence rate as {AdaBoost.MH} up to a universal constant factor, removing the previously suggested additional dependence on $n$ or $K$ in the number of boosting rounds.

Trajectory similarity learning is fundamental to efficient trajectory retrieval under complex distance measures. Existing learning-based methods typically rely on embeddings trained to approximate trajectory distances or rankings, but they often lack guarantees with respect to the original distances, exhibit unstable performance across distance measures, and incur substantial training costs. We revisit trajectory similarity learning from a lower-bound representation perspective and propose LB-TrajRep, a unified lower-bound representation framework independent of deep neural embeddings. This framework constructs single-vector representations from a set of lower-bound components, enabling admissible and interpretable lower bounds for multiple classical trajectory distances, including Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), Hausdorff distance, and Discrete Fréchet Distance (DFD). Within this framework, we instantiate point-pivot components, which naturally support both metric and non-metric distances and remain compatible with standard vector-based retrieval pipelines. To improve ranking quality, we develop two data-driven pivot selection strategies that explicitly optimize lower-bound tightness and prioritize hard near-neighbor trajectory pairs, respectively. Extensive experiments on real-world trajectory datasets show that the proposed lower-bound representations are able to consistently outperform state-of-the-art neural trajectory embeddings across diverse distance measures, improving top-$k$ ranking accuracy by up to 20%--60% on the Hausdorff distance and DFD and by 15%--40% on DTW.

High-polyphony symbolic music is increasingly used in generation, analysis, and arrangement, yet many downstream tasks require bounded representations with fixed tracks or slots. Converting richly orchestrated scores into compact forms is therefore necessary, but existing approaches relying on heuristic simplification or generic representation-space reduction often fail to preserve structural roles, orchestration compatibility, and playability under strict budgets. To address the issue, this study reformulates the compression problem as a fixed-budget structured routing problem and proposes Unbalanced Optimal Transport for Information Routing (UOT-IR), a training-free framework based on constrained unbalanced optimal transport. UOT-IR combines an orchestration prior, adaptive marginal relaxation, temporal decoding, and playability-aware projection to produce compact and musically coherent bounded representations. This work further studies two practical settings under the same slot budget: template standardization, which maps each input to a predefined bounded template, and adaptive preservation, which retains representative content without assuming an external template. Experiments on the SymphonyNet corpus show that UOT-IR delivers strong overall performance across both settings, including the best Note-F1 in adaptive preservation (0.9120), together with the lowest structural cost (14.7165) and bad structural confusion rate (0.3406) in template standardization. This work establishes a principled paradigm for fixed-budget symbolic music compression, offering a practical path toward compact, structured, and musically coherent symbolic representations.

Fairness audits are increasingly mandated in high-stakes applications such as hiring, lending, and automated decision-making. Recent work has established fundamental impossibility results for black-box fairness auditing, showing that sufficiently expressive models can evade any auditing strategy. We complement these results by quantifying the extent of unavoidable post-audit manipulation under finite audit resources. We formulate fairness auditing as a min-max optimization between a computationally unbounded company and a budget-constrained auditor. We study two auditing regimes: (i) a budgeted auditor that certifies fairness using a fixed-size audit set, and (ii) a budgeted α-tolerant auditor that additionally requires the audit set to estimate the fairness of the certified model within an α approximation. For both settings, we derive explicit lower bounds on the worst-case post-audit demographic parity deviation as functions of the audit budget, group imbalance, and fairness tolerance. Finally, we empirically illustrate these theoretical limits using simple audit-set construction heuristics with linear and neural network classifiers. Our results demonstrate that increasing audit resources reduces, but does not eliminate, the scope for post-audit manipulation, highlighting fundamental limitations of finite-budget fairness certification.

We present HBPI-UCRL, a model-based algorithm for hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) that learns high-level and low-level policies in parallel. HBPI-UCRL exploits the fact that a high-level transition corresponds to a multi-step transition at the low level. We introduce two conditions on the low-level dynamics that are sufficient to make parallel HRL learnable. When these conditions hold, we prove that HBPI-UCRL has a polynomial sample complexity in the problem parameters. In the sparse-reward, goal-directed setting, our sample complexity upper bound for HBPI-UCRL is strictly lower than that of its non-hierarchical counterpart, providing theoretical justification for the empirical success of HRL.

Branch and Bound (BaB) aims to achieve complete verification of neural networks by adaptively partitioning the problem and applying off-the-shelf verifiers to subproblems. Its problem-splitting history can be represented as a tree, where each subproblem corresponds to a child node. A key problem of BaB lies in searching for the verdict boundaries across all the paths that divide the verified and unverified subproblems. We observe that the existing BaB approach tackles this problem by solving each expensive subproblem sequentially along the tree path as its depth increases, requiring costly bounds propagation at every visited BaB tree node (i.e., subproblem), which is inefficient. To address this issue, we propose effective search approaches that leverage the monotonicity of each path to efficiently and precisely locate the verdict boundary by simultaneously splitting multiple activation functions (e.g., ReLU), rather than processing them one at a time as in the classical approach. Our approach performs an effective exponential search along each path, allowing us to skip many boundary-unrelated subproblems when identifying the verdict boundary. The enhanced version further improves this process by estimating the boundary's position using quantitative information obtained from subproblem solving. We perform experimental evaluation on commonly-used benchmarks to assess our proposed techniques, and compare them with recent BaB-based approaches.

Swap-agnostic learning strengthens classical agnostic learning by allowing the comparator to select a different hypothesis on each level set of the learner's predictions. This benchmark captures prediction-dependent postprocessing, but appears to require solving a separate agnostic-learning problem for every possible prediction value. We show that, for proper losses, these prediction-level comparisons can instead be controlled jointly. Our main result is an offline swap-agnostic learner for any fixed proper loss. For a finite hypothesis class $H$ and any fixed smooth proper loss, the excess risk from $m$ i.i.d. samples is $\widetilde{O}((\log |H|/m)^{2/3})$, with a corresponding online swap-regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(T^{1/3}(\log |H|)^{2/3})$. We also give algorithms whose predictions are simultaneously swap-agnostic for entire families of losses. For all proper losses bounded in $[-1,1]$, we obtain online and offline rates of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T\log |H|})$ and $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{\log |H|/m})$, respectively. For convex, $1$-Lipschitz proper losses, these rates improve to $\widetilde{O}(T^{1/3}(\log |H|)^{2/3})$ online and $\widetilde{O}((\log |H|/m)^{2/3})$ offline. These bounds are tight up to logarithmic factors and improve upon the $\widetilde{O}(T^{2/3}(\log |H|)^{1/3})$ rate implied by the swap-omniprediction guarantee of Luo et al. (2025). Our main technical contribution is a reduction from swap-agnostic learning to a second-order form of multicalibration, obtained via Blackwell approachability with a Bernstein-style variance correction.

Bilevel reinforcement learning (RL) is an important framework within the literature of RL that can be used to formalize various categories of problems, such as meta-learning, hierarchical task decomposition, and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RL-HF). Most of the bilevel RL algorithms are either not scalable because of using hypergradient with Hessian, or they suffer from high sample complexity because of using penalty-based approximation methods. In this work, we propose a hypergradient-based bilevel RL algorithm using the optimality of the Boltzmann policy for the entropy regularized discounted RL objective function. Our proposed algorithm is Hessian-free and obtains an iteration complexity of $O(ε^{-1})$ and state-of-the-art sample complexity of $\tilde{O}(ε^{-2})$ under mild regularity conditions. Further, in our convergence analysis, we are able to remove the assumption of the Polyak-Lojasiewicz (PL) condition on the outer-level objective function present in the prior state-of-the-art sample complexity work.

Let $μ(d x)\propto e^{-U(x)} d x$ on $\R^d$, where $U$ is $m$-strongly convex and $L$-smooth, and denote by $κ=L/m$ the condition number. We consider windowed thinning, an exact simulation method for the bouncy particle sampler and the coordinate Zigzag process. The method divides a trajectory into deterministic windows and uses a gradient evaluation at the beginning of each window to construct a tractable local envelope for the event rate. Combining this construction with quantitative mixing estimates and finite-time bounds on the expected numbers of bounces and flips yields query complexity guarantees from a Gaussian cold start. For total-variation error $\varepsilon$, the expected query counts are $O(κ^{1/2}d\,(d\logκ+\log\frac1\varepsilon))$ gradient queries for the bouncy particle sampler and $O(κd^{1/4}(d\logκ+\log\frac1\varepsilon))$ full-gradient equivalents for Zigzag, where $d$ coordinate-partial queries count as one equivalent.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become the standard mechanism for fine-tuning large pretrained models, yet its statistical properties remain only partially understood. Existing generalization results provide upper bounds of the form O~(sqrt(rd/n)) or O~(rd/n), but a matching lower bound is missing, and the question of how to choose the LoRA rank r has no formal answer. Both gaps are closed here. A local Rademacher argument establishes an upper bound of O~(rd/n) on the excess risk of the empirical risk minimizer over rank-r LoRA, whenever the target adaptation has rank at most r. A matching minimax lower bound of Omega(rd/n) is then proved via a Fano-type packing of the rank-r subspace of R^{d x d}; the bound applies to any estimator whose output lies in the rank-r LoRA class. Combining the two yields a rank-selection dichotomy. For the constrained empirical risk minimizer, the optimal rank equals the intrinsic rank r*, and over-ranking strictly hurts. For adaptive estimators of the nuclear-norm-then-truncate type, over-ranking is harmless and the rate saturates at Theta~(r* d / n) regardless of r. Taken together, the three results characterize the statistical complexity of LoRA fine-tuning within the well-specified locally quadratic regime, and identify the empirically observed over-parameterization penalty as a property of unregularized empirical risk minimization rather than of the LoRA class itself. Predictions of the theory are verified on a synthetic trace-regression benchmark and on real LoRA fine-tuning across three (model, task) configurations covering DistilBERT and RoBERTa on SST-2 and MRPC. All configurations exhibit the predicted U-shape in validation loss, with two showing statistically significant loss inflation at large ranks (paired permutation p = 0.016).

In this paper, we formulate three communication tasks for empirical optimal transport: distributed coupling sampling, cost-evaluable coupling output, and scalar value-certified sampling. Our main result is a field-code compiler: any communicated transport field approximating an optimal empirical Monge map to error $η$ can be completed by sparse target-cell residuals into an exact-marginal value-certified sampler with scalar certificate $W_1(μ,ν)\leq U\leq W_1(μ,ν)+2Δ$, where $Δ$ is the public target-partition diameter. The certificate accuracy is controlled by $Δ$ alone. The field error $η$ controls residual communication under a cell-margin condition; without a margin, $η$ alone does not bound residuals. We instantiate the compiler via adaptive local-affine and tensor-product spline codes with $d(m+1)^db$ field bits in the spline case, plus residual lists charged separately. For lower bounds, exact Gap-Hamming embeddings prove certified output is hard, including a smooth cell-packing diffeomorphism family requiring $Ω(\varepsilon^{-2d/(d+4)})$ communication for any cost-evaluable, cost-certified, or value-certified protocol. The same gadgets admit zero-communication samplers, formally separating the sampler and certificate-bearing output models. These results identify the transport field as the right communicated object whenever a field code is available, primarily as a residual-sparsity tool.

In many domains such as Palliative Care, Credit Assignment and Recommender Systems, predictions may causally influence the outcomes they predict. This phenomena is known as Outcome Performativity. This paper formalises an approach for detecting Outcome Performativity using prediction intervention called Outcome Performativity A/B Detection (OPAB). OPAB enables the detection of Outcome Performativity by assessing the dissimilarity in outcome distributions produced by different predictions groups (interventions). If that dissimilarity is significant, Outcome Performativity is detected. We derive sample complexity bounds for OPAB under various Outcome Performative assumption classes which we empirically validate. Results show that detecting Outcome Performativity using OPAB is achievable in numerous cases. Results also show the presence of regions of indistinguishability which describe settings where the allotted number of interventions are insufficient for detecting Outcome Performativity. The results of which have broader practical implications for the detectability of Outcome Performativity in settings where samples are scarce, cost-prohibitive or potentially unethical to obtain. The paper concludes with a case study on the efficacy of OPAB on the Open Bandits dataset, and provides directions for future work.

In this paper we show that the generalization error of AdaBoost is $Θ\big(\tfrac{d\ln(nγ^{2}/d)}{nγ^2}+\tfrac{\ln(1/δ)}{n}\big)$, where $γ$ is the advantage guaranteed by the weak learner, $d$ is the VC-dimension of the class containing the weak hypotheses, $n$ is the sample size, and $δ$ is the confidence parameter. The contribution of this paper is the upper bound; the matching lower bound follows from prior work. The upper bound proof follows by combining the known fact that AdaBoost outputs a voting classifier whose voting function has zero empirical $γ/2$-margin loss with what is, to the best of our knowledge, a new margin-based generalization bound for voting classifiers.

Two central challenges in diffusion-based sampling are the theoretical one of understanding their remarkable effectiveness even in high-dimensional settings, and the practical one of designing algorithms with certified performance guarantees. We show that these questions are intimately connected via the \emph{denoising growth complexity} ($\mathsf{DGC}$). It is a geometric measure defined by a log-time weighted integral of the derivative of the denoising mean-squared error along the Gaussian heat flow. We show how the $\mathsf{DGC}$ increments lead to a simple and explicit bound on the KL error of an Euler scheme applied to the stochastic innovations representation. The bound is local along the path: each step is controlled by the corresponding $\mathsf{DGC}$ increment and its relative stepsize. This structure allows us to derive KL sampling guarantees for optimized stepsize schedules, both in a simpler single-block setting and in a more refined $K$-block setting. The $\mathsf{DGC}$ function has a natural martingale structure, which we exploit to develop fully data-certified versions of these algorithms. It also admits information-theoretic upper bounds in terms of covariance, rate distortion, metric entropy, and the Poincar'e constant, thereby recovering and sharpening a range of existing diffusion-sampling guarantees, as well as giving new results. In log heat-time, the fine partition limit is governed by an integral involving the square root of the $\mathsf{DGC}$ density, whereas a single-block schedule depends on its ordinary integral. This comparison precisely characterizes when adaptation to data geometry yields substantial computational gains, including logarithmic-to-constant separations for simple Gaussian mixture models.

We study stochastic composite nonconvex optimization over a compact convex set when gradient samples arrive along a single trajectory of a fixed ergodic Markov chain. Existing single-trajectory variance-reduction theory covers smooth unconstrained objectives; we address the projection-free composite setting using the generalized Frank-Wolfe gap. We propose MC-ALFCG, which combines a momentum conditional-gradient method with coupled capped multilevel Monte Carlo estimation and per-iteration clipping. The deepest nested average uses consecutive states from the same trajectory, yielding conditional bias $O(τ_{\mathrm{mix}}/T)$ uniformly over the starting state, while coupling controls the gradient-difference second moment through the iterate displacement. Clipping enforces the pathwise bounds needed by the adaptive analysis. We reduce the Markovian recursion to its independent-sampling counterpart under $σ^2\mapsto 2ΛG_σ^2$ and $L^2\mapsto 2ΛL^2$, where $Λ=O(τ_{\mathrm{mix}}\log T)$. For positive centered noise, the tuned method achieves expected sample complexity $\widetilde{O}((τ_{\mathrm{mix}}^2G_σ+τ_{\mathrm{mix}}^{5/2}G_σ^2)\varepsilon^{-3}+τ_{\mathrm{mix}}^5\varepsilon^{-2})$. The exactly noiseless specialization achieves $\widetilde{O}(\varepsilon^{-2})$ with mixing-time-free constants, while a mixing-time-oblivious variant achieves $\widetilde{O}(τ_{\mathrm{mix}}^6\varepsilon^{-3}+τ_{\mathrm{mix}}^3\varepsilon^{-2})$. All guarantees are in expectation under a fixed transition kernel. Controlled numerical studies examine dependence sensitivity, a nonconvex composite instance, and clipping behavior.

Motivated by learning from heterogeneous and overlapping data providers, we study a stylized model of distribution learning from restricted conditional samples. The goal is to learn an unknown distribution $p$ on a finite domain $[n]$. The learner is given a fixed family of queryable sets $\mathscr{S} \subseteq 2^{[n]}$, and each query to $S \in \mathscr{S}$ returns an independent sample from the conditional distribution $p(\cdot \mid S)$. Learnability is governed by the co-occurrence graph associated with $\mathscr{S}$: two domain elements are adjacent if they appear together in some queryable set. Pointwise consistency is achievable when this graph is connected on the target support. PAC learning requires more: it is possible when the co-occurrence graph is complete. The optimal sample complexity of PAC learning ranges from nearly linear to quadratic. Every query family with complete co-occurrence graph admits sample complexity $\widetilde O(n^2/ε^2)$, and this bound is tight in the worst case. On the other hand, if $[n]$ is queryable then ordinary sampling improves the bound to $Θ(n/ε^2)$, and this cannot be improved further even if every set is queryable. More generally, we identify hierarchical comparabilityas a sufficient structural condition on $\mathscr S$ under which the optimal complexity is nearly linear, $\widetilde Θ(n/ε^2)$, with pairwise query families as a canonical example. Finally, the full range of polynomial rates between linear and quadratic is attainable: for every $α\in (1,2)$, there exists a query family with optimal PAC rate $\widetilde Θ(n^α/ε^2)$.

Over the past 20 years, kernel discrepancies have been leveraged as a highly powerful tool for quantifying the disagreement of distributions, with numerous successful applications in two-sample, goodness-of-fit, and independence testing, among others. Their fastest estimators are known to converge at a parametric rate---$n^{-1/2}$---under mild conditions. While this rate is known to be minimax optimal on $\mathbb R^d$ under strict assumptions with bounded kernels, little is known about its optimality beyond the finite-dimensional Euclidean setting with unbounded kernels. In this work, we prove that the minimax lower bound of estimation of the most popular kernel discrepancies (maximum mean discrepancy, Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion and kernel Stein discrepancy; MMD, HSIC, KSD) is $n^{-1/2}$ on general topological spaces, and under mild assumptions on the kernel; the same rates are shown (as corollaries) to hold for the estimation of the mean embedding and the centered cross-covariance operator. Our results settle the question of optimal estimation of these kernel discrepancies.

We study streaming federated learning with limited client memory, where newly generated training data incur time-varying sampling costs and must be selectively admitted and retained over time. We consider a joint server-side admission and client-side memory-management framework with the objective of minimizing the cumulative excess population risk under a sampling-cost budget and buffer constraints. We first derive a learning-error bound that explicitly captures the effects of instantaneous training sample size, distinct-sample growth, and reuse imbalance through a characterization of the effective sample size. Through a surrogate penalty obtained from this bound, we develop an Active-Constraint Drift-Plus-Penalty (ACDPP) policy that combines a structured client-side $K$-step retention rule with a server-side online admission rule and a time-varying rectangular admission region. We further present a sequence of comparison arguments, via an auxiliary constant-admission policy, that connects the ACDPP learning bound to a costless oracle benchmark. This yields explicit guarantees in terms of sublinear regret and sampling-cost violation, while the buffer-occupancy violation is controlled through offline selection of the retention horizon. Experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that the proposed policy remains close to the oracle benchmark while satisfying the sampling-cost and buffer constraints.

Recent years have witnessed increasing interests in tackling heteroscedastic noise in bandits and reinforcement learning. In these works, the cumulative variance of the noise $Λ= \sum_{t=1}^T σ_t^2$, where $σ_t^2$ is the variance of the noise at round $t$, is used to characterize the statistical complexity of the problem, yielding \emph{simple regret} bounds of order $\tilde{\cal{O}}(d \sqrt{Λ/ T^2})$ for $d$-dimensional linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise. However, with a closer look, $Λ$ remains the same order even if the noise is close to zero at half of the rounds, which indicates that the $Λ$-dependence is not optimal. In this paper, we revisit the stochastic linear bandit problem with heteroscedastic noise, where the action set is prefixed throughout the learning process. We propose a novel variance-adaptive algorithm \texttt{VAEE} (Variance-Aware Exploration with Elimination) for large action set, which actively explores actions that maximizes the information gain among a candidate set of actions that are not eliminated. With the active-exploration strategy, we show that \texttt{VAEE} achieves a \emph{simple regret} with a nearly \emph{harmonic-mean} dependent rate. For finitely many actions, we propose a variance-aware variant of G-optimal design based exploration, which achieves a simple regret with sharper dependence on $d$. We also establish a nearly matching lower bound for the fixed action set setting indicating that \emph{harmonic-mean} dependent rate is unavoidable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that breaks the $\sqrtΛ$ barrier for stochastic linear bandits with heteroscedastic noise.

Data-driven remaining useful life (RUL) prediction requires complete degradation trajectories for training, yet such run-to-failure data are scarce and expensive. Practitioners currently lack principled guidance on how many failure examples suffice for a given model and accuracy target. This paper develops a sample complexity framework for RUL prediction comprising seven main results organised around three themes. First, we establish fundamental learning rates: a distribution-free generalization bound shows that the uniform deviation of the mean squared error decreases as $O(B^{2}\sqrt{p/n})$, where $p$ is the model complexity and $n$ the number of trajectories, and a minimax lower bound proves that the $Θ(p/n)$ rate is unimprovable.} \rev{Second, we quantify how domain knowledge accelerates learning: incorporating degradation physics reduces data requirements by up to two orders of magnitude for deep networks, a Bernstein-type analysis achieves the minimax-optimal $O(p/n)$ rate under high signal-to-noise conditions, and closed-form penalties reveal when an incorrectly assumed physics model hurts rather than helps. Third, we characterise the impact of data quality: fleet variability induces an irreducible bias$-$variance tradeoff, while right-censored observations suffer an efficiency loss that depends critically on the degradation class.} Closed-form expressions are provided for exponential, power-law, and stretched-exponential degradation. \rev{Cross-domain validation against published turbofan, battery, and bearing benchmarks confirms the theoretical predictions within a factor of 2$-$3 on average. The results yield practical guidelines for planning data collection, selecting model complexity, and evaluating physics model assumptions in prognostics applications.

Local regularization assigns each hypothesis a test-point-dependent score and predicts with a minimum-score hypothesis consistent with the sample. Asilis et al. asked whether this principle characterizes multiclass PAC learnability. We give a negative answer. There is a countable class of Daniely--Shalev-Shwartz dimension at most two with realizable PAC sample complexity $$O\!\left(\frac{1}{\varepsilon}\log\frac{1}δ\right),$$ that no local regularizer learns. Hypotheses are edges of complete graphs and instances are tournaments. At a test tournament, the scores fix an edge ranking while the training sample independently removes competitors. Cyclic triangles force enough inversions that surviving competitors produce constant population error at arbitrarily large sample sizes.

Let $t(N)$ be the largest $t$ for which there exist distinct sets $A_1,\dots,A_t \subseteq \{1,\dots,N\}$ such that $A_i \cap A_j$ is a nonempty arithmetic progression for all $i \neq j$ (Erdos Problem #272). Simonovits and Sos proved $t(N)=O(N^2)$ and conjectured $\binom{N}{2}+1$ is best possible; Szabo disproved this by a construction giving $t(N) \geq \binom{N}{2}+1+\lfloor(N-1)/4\rfloor$, proved the asymptotics $t(N)=N^2/2+O(N^{5/3}(\log N)^3)$, and asked whether $t(N)=\binom{N}{2}+O(N)$ and whether some element lies in all sets of any extremal family (the kernel question). We determine $t(N)$ exactly for all $3 \leq N \leq 12$ by exhaustive computation: in this entire range Szabo's lower bound is exact, and we conjecture that $t(N)=\binom{N}{2}+1+\lfloor(N-1)/4\rfloor$ for every $N$. Towards the matching upper bound we prove, for every $N$, that Szabo's bound is the exact maximum over all families with a common element (starred families). The proof combines a self-contained ``defect-one'' counting inequality for staircase regions with a new structural theorem: every non-progression member of such a family contains a bad pair that no other member can share. Consequently the sharpened conjecture reduces to a single remaining statement, namely Szabo's kernel conjecture that some element lies in all sets of an extremal family, and we prove first structural constraints on putative non-starred extremal families.

In Problem 6 of his 1988 paper on differential posets, Stanley asked for the least possible cardinality of a fixed rank of an $r$-differential poset and suggested that the minimum should be attained by $Y^r$, the $r$-fold Cartesian power of Young's lattice. We disprove the resulting universal coefficientwise lower bound. For every $r\geq 3$, we construct an infinite $r$-differential poset $P^{(r)}$ satisfying $\lvert P^{(r)}_4\rvert=\lvert (Y^r)_4\rvert-\lfloor r/3\rfloor$. For $r=3$, the construction replaces thirteen rank-four lower-cover blocks of $Y^3$ by twelve blocks with the same point and pair incidence multiplicities, producing the initial rank sequence $1,3,9,22,50$ instead of $1,3,9,22,51$. A reflection extension then yields an infinite differential poset. The construction does not address the cases $r=1$ and $r=2$.

Learning the natural parameters $z \in \mathbb{R}^n$ of discrete distributions $μ_z$ from independent samples constrained to a subset $S \subseteq \{0,1\}^n$ is a foundational challenge in high-dimensional statistics. Existing methods for efficiently estimating truncated Boolean product distributions, notably the work of [Fotakis et al' COLT'20, Algorithmica '22], require either strong local connectivity assumptions on $S$ -- a property denoted fatness -- or stringent anti-concentration assumptions and necessitate the total mass of the truncation set to be a constant with respect to $n$. Moreover, the results in [Fotakis et al' COLT'20, Algorithmica '22] suffer from sample complexities that scale as $Ω(2^n)$ if the mass of $S$ is exponentially small in $n$. In this work, we circumvent these limitations by analyzing the geometry of $S$ under the measure $μ_z$. We refine the existing parameter estimation guarantees under the fatness assumption, improving the prior sample complexity to $O( \log n / ε^2)$ for $\ell_\infty$-recovery, matching the untruncated minimax rate. We further generalize fatness using the notion of influence utilized in the analysis of Boolean functions and provide sufficient conditions for efficient inference. Notably, unlike previous work, our method does not require sampling at arbitrary parameterizations of the model. Lastly, we establish a theoretical lower bound demonstrating the sample complexity exhibits an intrinsic exponential dependence on the width of the model and the minimum distance between elements in the set.

A data-driven inverse optimization problem (DDIOP) is the problem of estimating the objective-function parameters (weights) that explain observed optimal-solution data, and it arises in many applications, including integer linear programming (ILP). It is known that, by applying gradient-based optimization methods to the suboptimality loss, the inverse optimization of ILPs can be solved exactly within finitely many oracle iterations, and that the required number of iterations is bounded as $T=O(1/γ(\ell_{\mathrm{sub}})^2)$ in terms of a problem-dependent geometric constant $γ(\ell_{\mathrm{sub}})$. However, no means of bounding $γ(\ell_{\mathrm{sub}})$ from below as a function of the problem size has been available, and hence the number of iterations could not be given as an explicit function of the problem size. We therefore give, when the forward problem is an integer linear program (ILP), the number of iterations sufficient for projected subgradient descent applied to the suboptimality loss to achieve exact consistency with the observed data, as a fully explicit function of the number of samples, the dimension of the features, the ranges of the features, and the structure of the constraint coefficient matrix, up to polynomial factors in the basic constants (the diameter of the weight set, the step-size parameter, and the Lipschitz constant of the suboptimality loss).

We prove function-theoretic analogues of a quantitative result of Hodges on extracting the order property from a sufficiently large 2-tree coded in a binary relation. Similar analogues for functions were previously obtained by Daskalakis and Golowich and by Anderson and Benedikt. These results are from statistical learning theory, where 2-trees are captured by sequential fat-shattering dimension, and the order property is controlled by various notions of "thresholds". Our first main result (Theorem 1.11) focuses on extracting a less restrictive kind of threshold from a tree, and yields significantly better bounds compared to what can be obtained from earlier results focusing on more restrictive versions. Part of the motivation for Theorem 1.11 lies in a companion paper, where this theorem is used to obtain efficient bounds in quantitative regularity lemmas for "stable functions". Here will use Theorem 1.11 to reprove a result of Anderson and Benedikt in a stronger form and with improved bounds. We also use Theorem 1.11 to prove an at most double-exponential bound on dual sequential fat-shattering, which resolves an open problem. In our second main result (Theorem 1.14), we give a new proof of a result of Daskalakis and Golowich on extracting "tight thresholds" from large sequential fat-shattering dimension, with improved bounds. This resolves another open problem related to correcting the proof of a result claimed by Jung, Kim, and Tewari.

The Shannon capacity $Θ(G)$ of a graph $G$ quantifies the maximum rate at which information can be transmitted with zero error over a noisy channel. It is lower bounded by $α(G^d)^{1/d}$ for any $d$, where $α(G^d)$ is the independence number of the $d$-th strong product of $G$. We construct independent sets of size $134753$ in $C_7^{10}$, $21909$ in $C_{11}^{6}$, $62530$ in $C_{13}^{6}$, and $8076974$ in $C_{15}^{8}$, improving the best known lower bounds for the Shannon capacity of these graphs to $Θ(C_7)\geq 134753^{1/10}>3.258020$, $Θ(C_{11})\geq 21909^{1/6}>5.289773$, $Θ(C_{13})\geq 62530^{1/6}>6.300109$, and $Θ(C_{15})\geq 8076974^{1/8}>7.301399$. We also improve the best known lower bounds on the independence numbers of several individual strong products of odd cycles that do not improve the Shannon capacity lower bound. The constructions were discovered through iterative interactions with a Large Language Model (LLM), illustrating the potential of LLMs for finding explicit combinatorial constructions.

We study the depth required by ReLU networks to exactly represent piecewise linear functions, focusing specifically on the maximum function. This problem has recently received significant attention in both the ML and TCS literature. We prove that $\max_n(x)=\max\{x_1,\ldots,x_n\}$ is exactly representable with two hidden layers for every $n\leq 12$. Previously, this was only known up to $n\leq5$ [Bakaev, Brunck, Hertrich, Stade, Yehudayoff, STOC'26]. We obtain our constructions through an exact computer-assisted search within a space of candidate solutions: After a symmetry reduction, we obtain a finite system of linear equations over $\mathbb{Q}$ such that any solution yields a valid representation of the maximum function. The resulting constructions have a structured first hidden layer, which enables recursive substitution into deeper networks. This yields an exact ReLU representation of $\max_n$ with at most $\lceil \log_6(n/2) \rceil+1$ hidden layers. Consequently, every continuous piecewise-linear function on $\mathbb{R}^d$ admits an exact representation with at most $\lceil\log_6((d+1)/2)\rceil+1$ hidden layers; in particular, two hidden layers suffice for $d\leq 11$. Again, these results improve upon [Bakaev, Brunck, Hertrich, Stade, Yehudayoff, STOC'26], who proved analogous logarithmic bounds with base three.

We propose a novel framework for computing rigorous bounds on the probability that a large language model (LLM) generates harmful output to a given prompt. We study a new application of the Clopper-Pearson confidence intervals to obtain probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds for this problem. As our main technical contribution, we propose an algorithm that leverages features in the latent space to prioritize exploring branches in the auto-regressive generation tree that are more likely to produce harmful outputs. Our approach in particular enables the efficient computation of useful lower bounds, even in scenarios where the true harm probability is extremely small, and crucially, the obtained lower bounds are sound, i.e., formally proven to be less than the actual harmfulness probability: our experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by computing non-trivial lower bounds on state-of-the-art LLMs. This study newly enables the evaluation and statistical certification of LLMs.

We study machine unlearning: the removal of memorized training data from a trained model. Specifically, we investigate the algorithmic complexity of certified unlearning from an optimization perspective. We formalize the goal of an unlearning algorithm as simultaneously achieving certified unlearning and optimization accuracy. Utilizing the notion of uniformly convex regularizers, we prove new bounds on the distance between initial and unlearned models using a novel substitute for generalization error. Thus we theoretically demonstrate that if the removed data is well-predicted by the unlearned model, the corresponding optimization problem is simple. Furthermore, we develop a new second-order unlearning algorithm with an anisotropic Gaussian mechanism and state-of-the-art global convergence. We prove fast rates for our method in achieving certified unlearning for linear models with quasi-self-concordant losses. As a direct application, our theory covers unlearning for logistic and exponential regressions and shows a provable benefit of utilizing second-order information compared to first-order unlearning methods.

We consider the problem of constructing a $K$-class classifier from the combination of $O(\log K)$ simple binary classifiers -- this is a natural paradigm to construct a sophisticated classifier in a distributed manner with each agent performing a relatively straightforward task. We study the fundamental performance limits of such a classifier when the corresponding binary classifiers are hyperplanes. For a stylized Gaussian setting where the $K$ class centers are independent Gaussian points in $\mathbb R^d$ and the observations are corrupted by Gaussian noise, we derive explicit performance bounds across several decoding and dimensional regimes. Extensive simulation experiments provide strong empirical validation of the presented theoretical results.

We establish a $\widetildeΩ(d^{5/4}\sqrt T)$ lower bound on the minimax expected regret of stochastic bandit convex optimization of $1$-Lipschitz functions on the Euclidean ball. This presents the first nontrivial regret lower bound that grows faster than $d\sqrt{T}$ for this problem, establishing that stochastic bandit convex optimization is fundamentally harder than linear bandits. The hard class of convex functions we construct takes the following form in dimension $2d$: for an action $a = (a^1,a^2) \in \mathbb{B}^{2d}_2$, each function is the scaled soft maximum of a "tube", $r^{-1} \| W^\star a^1 - \frac{r}{8\varepsilon} a^2 \|_2$ (hyperparameterized by $\varepsilon,r$), and a squared distance function, $\frac12 \| a^1 - u^\star \|_2^2 - \frac12 \| u^\star \|_2^2$. Here, $W^\star \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$ is an unknown linear transformation, and $u^\star \in \mathbb{R}^{d}$ is an unknown vector which must be learned to minimize the function. Observations are informative about $u^\star$ only when the learner's action lies near the tube determined by $W^\star$, satisfying $a^2 \approx \frac{8\varepsilon}{r} W^\star a^1$: thus the learner must either find this tube without knowing $W^\star$, or spend observations learning useful directions of $W^\star$. Formally, our regret analysis exploits this tradeoff by bounding the posterior spread of Fisher information matrices obtained under an adaptive sequence of actions. Together, these ingredients give a sample complexity lower bound of $\widetildeΩ(d^{5/2}/\varepsilon^2)$ to find an $\varepsilon$-optimal action, which translates to an $\widetildeΩ (d^{5/4} \sqrt{T})$ regret lower bound. We also extend this lower bound to the unconstrained setting where the action space is $\mathbb{R}^d$.

Reachability analysis is central to safety-critical control, robotics, and neural network verification, but classical computational methods, such as Hamilton--Jacobi reachability and set propagation, scale poorly with state dimension. Sampling-based methods have emerged as a promising alternative, often providing finite-sample guarantees that bound the probability-mass left uncovered. However, an explicit account of how the geometry of the initial set, the dynamics, and the sampling law affect the accuracy of the estimator is not fully available in the literature. We study this by casting sampling-based reachable-set recovery as geometric support estimation over a family of problems specified by an initial set, its dynamics, and a sampling law. First, we identify two regularity properties, positive reach of the initial set's complement and Lipschitz continuity of the dynamics, that together make recovery well-posed: a probability-mass coverage guarantee can be upgraded to accuracy $r$ in Hausdorff distance. Second, we bound the resulting sample complexity: recovery is achievable with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\big((e^{3LT}/r)^n\big)$ samples, exponential in both the state dimension and the time horizon. Third, we show that neither can be removed: an minimax lower bound of $Ω\big((e^{LT}/r)^n\big)$ holds for every estimator, so the exponential dependence on dimension and the degradation over the horizon are both intrinsic, not artifacts of a particular method. Experiments on nonlinear systems confirm that adversarial sampling improves constants but not the scaling.

We prove two lower bounds for the first order oracle complexity of minimizing a $d$-dimensional $1$-Lipschitz convex function over the unit ball with $m$ bits of memory. We first show that any such (possibly randomized) algorithm must make $\tildeΩ(\frac{d^2}{\sqrt{m}})$ oracle queries. For deterministic optimization algorithms, we show that $\tildeΩ(\min\{d^{1.6},\frac{d^{8/3}}{m^{2/3}}\})$ queries are required. For all memory regimes of interest, these improves upon the previous best known lower bounds of $\tildeΩ(\max\{\frac{d^{8/3}}{m^{4/3}},\frac{d^{4/3}}{m^{1/6}}\})$ and $\tildeΩ(\frac{d^{5/3}}{m^{1/3}})$ for randomized and deterministic algorithms respectively. Notably, due to existing upper bounds, our lower bound for deterministic algorithms is the first to show a sharp oracle complexity phase transition around $m\approx d^2$, where a polylogarithmic change in memory leads to a $\mathsf{poly}(d)$ change in the number of required oracle calls. Further, when the suboptimality is polynomially small in $d$, our lower bound randomized algorithms is the first to show that $\tildeΩ(d^2)$ memory is necessary to nearly match the optimal query complexity among algorithms without memory constraints. Previously, such a result was only known for the regime where the suboptimality is quasipolynomially small in $d$.

Gaussian graphical model selection is usually studied under independent sampling, but in many applications the data arise as a single trajectory of a dependent stochastic process. We study exact recovery of the graph from one trajectory of random-scan Gaussian Glauber dynamics. Existing techniques for this problem either inherit the mixing time of the chain, which can be super-polynomial in the dimension $p$ without strong assumptions, or are suboptimal in the minimum normalized edge strength $κ$. We propose two algorithms that are mixing-free and attain the $κ^{-2}$ dependence of the information-theoretic lower bounds. Both instantiate a shared dueling-neighborhood search meta-algorithm with a local statistic built directly from the update sequence. For every fixed precision matrix and deterministic initialization, the first algorithm fits a least-squares regression at the updates of each node and has pointwise recovery horizon $\widetilde O(pd^{2}/κ^{2})$, where $d$ is the maximum degree. Its horizon depends logarithmically on a local conditioning quantity and on the initialization potential. The second algorithm is based on counting occurences of a specific update pattern and requires $\widetilde O(pd^{4}/κ^{2})$ updates, with no dependence on any condition number. The central technical challenge is that both statistics are built from dependent, non-stationary observations. Our analysis tackles this by demonstrating how to extract fresh Gaussian innovations from the update sequence, which yields mixing-free control of appropriate quantities. Neither the algorithms nor their analyses invoke stationarity, a spectral gap, or mixing conditions.

We establish mean-square and concentration bounds for stochastic approximation (SA) with arbitrary norm contractive mappings, under a multiplicative noise model where the noise may scale affinely with the norm of the iterates, and the iterates are potentially unbounded. These settings arise in reinforcement learning, where operators are often contractive in the $\ell_\infty$ norm and the noise scales with the iterates. To address the arbitrary norm, earlier works replace the non-smooth squared norm with a smooth Lyapunov function constructed via the generalized Moreau envelope. For concentration analysis, these works handle multiplicative noise and unbounded iterates through a multi-stage bootstrapping argument that starts from a time-varying worst-case bound and iteratively refines it. We instead present a unified and elementary analysis that yields both bounds. Using an averaged noise sequence and corresponding auxiliary iterates, we obtain a one-step Lyapunov drift inequality for the normed error directly, without smoothing the norm or constructing an envelope. For the mean-square bound, we combine this drift inequality with an induction argument showing that the iterates remain bounded in expectation. For the concentration bound, we develop a probabilistic induction over a sequence of "good" events on which the iterates are controlled, allowing the standard Azuma-Hoeffding bound to be applied. Our approach yields the first sub-Gaussian tailed maximal (all-time) concentration bound for SA under multiplicative noise, by allowing the stepsize to depend logarithmically on the confidence level. Beyond the specific setting considered here, we discuss the generalizability of these proof techniques to other noise models and iterative algorithms.

In this work, we investigate the effect of lookahead branching strategies in neural network verification. We present a general recipe to integrate lookahead into any branch-and-bound verifier and demonstrate how one of the current state-of-the-art branching heuristics, FSB, can be viewed as a special instantiation of the lookahead branching strategy. We also describe how, in addition to improving the quality of branching decisions, lookahead can generate additional lemmas that accelerate verification. We instantiate the method in two representative branch-and-bound-based verifiers (Marabou and $α$-$β$-CROWN), and demonstrate that lookahead leads to consistent speedups in verification time and up to $57\%$ more solved instances. Code is available at https://github.com/ai-ar-research/lookahead-branching.

Estimating entropy from samples is fundamental in information theory and property testing. Shannon entropy measures average uncertainty and can be estimated to constant additive accuracy over a $k$-symbol alphabet using $Θ(k/\log k)$ samples. Min-entropy depends only on the most likely symbol. Both are special cases of order-$α$ R'{e}nyi entropy, $H_α$. We characterize the sample complexity of estimating min-entropy and R'{e}nyi entropy for $k$ and integer $α>1$; our lower bounds also hold for noninteger $α\ge1.001$. We prove that min-entropy estimation to constant additive accuracy has sample complexity $Θ(k\log k)$. The upper bound uses the largest empirical frequency and concentration via dyadic grouping. The matching lower bound hides a slightly heavier symbol at a uniformly random location. Thus, min-entropy requires $Θ(\log^2 k)$ more samples than Shannon entropy and corrects a previously stated $Θ(k/\log k)$ characterization. For every integer $2\leα\le c_0\log k$, we prove the matching fixed-accuracy bound $Θ_{c_0}(αk^{1-1/α})$. Previous results gave $Ω_α(k^{1-1/α})$ for fixed integer $α>1$ and $O_{c_0}(α^2k^{1-1/α})$ for all integer $α>1$. Our upper bound analyzes an unbiased falling-factorial estimator based on $α$-way collisions, while a hidden-heavy-coordinate construction gives the matching lower bound and shows that the factor $α$ is unavoidable. For every real $1.001\leα\le c_0\log k$, we prove the uniform lower bound $Ω_{c_0}(αk^{1-1/α})$. Finally, since $0\le H_α(p)-H_\infty(p)\le\log k/(α-1)$, min-entropy uniformly approximates $H_α$ when $α$ is a sufficiently large multiple of $\log k$. Combining this reduction with our min-entropy bounds gives $Θ_\varepsilon(k\log k)$ sample complexity in the high-order regime.

Motivated by the challenge of testing distributions over high-dimensional or continuous domains, we study distribution testing with respect to bounded classes of distinguishers. A representative task is to use samples from an unknown distribution $P$ over a very large domain to decide between two cases: $P = P_{\mathsf{ref}}$ for a fixed reference distribution $P_{\mathsf{ref}}$, or there exists a distinguisher $f$ in a bounded class $\mathcal{F}$ which witnesses the separation $|\mathbf{E}_P[f] - \mathbf{E}_{P_{\mathsf{ref}}}[f]| > ε$. This is the task of identity testing with respect to fooling distance, a name inspired by the conceptual connection with pseudorandomness. (Formally, our model instantiates integral probability metrics from Boolean classes of bounded expressivity.) We show that testing with respect to fooling distance is not only a natural computational problem that admits sample-efficient algorithms even in high-dimensional settings, but also one that reveals and underlies connections between three seemingly unrelated areas of study: testable learning, verification of learning algorithms, and testing of structured distributions (whose "$\mathcal{A}_k$-testing" model our framework extends). These connections yield new results for all of these models, including: 1. Testable proper learners using membership queries for halfspaces and decision trees. 2. A lower bound for testable PAC verification in terms of Rademacher complexity, and a distribution-free verification protocol for disjoint unions of $k$ multidimensional rectangles. 3. Identity testers (with respect to total variation distance) for decision tree distributions and distributions with low-degree polynomial densities, over Boolean and continuous hypercube domains.

Following Goldwasser, Rothblum, Shafer, and Yehudayoff, who defined a framework for interactive proofs of learning [ITCS'21], we initiate the study of non-interactive proofs of learning. We define and study a new notion: Publicly-Verifiable Certificates of Statistical Validity (pvCSVs), which allow for public, distributionally-robust certification that the result of a learning algorithm is valid. In a pvCSV, a learner publishes a hypothesis $h$ and corresponding certificate $π$; then, any user, who holds a user-specific distribution, can read the pair $(h,π)$ and determine efficiently whether the hypothesis is valid according to the user-specific distribution. We construct pvCSVs in the context of Adaptive Statistical Query (SQ) Algorithms. To certify SQ algorithms that makes $k$ adaptive queries, we construct pvCSVs where the sample complexity scales with $O(\log k)$, whereas the sample complexity of the best learning algorithms scale with $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{k})$. More generally, we study proof systems for learning in the SQ model, demonstrating the model's strengths as well as its limitations.

Inspired by interior-point methods (IPM) for structured convex optimization, Kannan and Narayanan introduced the Dikin walk for sampling uniformly from polytopes in 2009. As in IPMs, the Dikin walk is affine-invariant, and its convergence is governed by the barrier geometry used to define its local proposal. They showed that the Dikin walk with the logarithmic barrier for a polytope in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ with $m$ linear inequalities mixes in $md$ iterations. In 2017, Chen, Dwivedi, Wainwright, and Yu improved this to $d^{2.5}$ using a Lewis-weight barrier, and conjectured that the correct mixing time should be $d^{2}$. We make progress toward this conjecture by improving the previous $d^{2.5}$-mixing bound. For exponential sampling over a polytope, we prove that the Dikin walk with a scaled Lee--Sidford metric mixes from a warm start in $d^{2.25}$ iterations. This also yields an improved cold-start complexity via a known annealing framework. The main technical ingredient is improved average self-concordance of the Lee--Sidford metric, which gives high acceptance probability for the Metropolis filter along a random Dikin proposal. While previous analyses were effectively limited to second-order control due to technical difficulties, we develop a principled higher-order analysis. The proof combines a selective higher-order expansion of recursive bottleneck terms, a moving orthonormal-frame calculus for higher derivatives of the Lewis weights, and Wiener-chaos decompositions via multiple stochastic integrals to control the resulting Gaussian polynomials.

A theoretical understanding of Transformers is crucial to better understand the capacities and limitations of large language models (LLMs). There is much work analyzing the expressivity of attention-based models. By proposing handcrafted weights or using computational complexity arguments, a large amount of past theoretical works have sought to characterize which tasks are and which are not in the hypothesis class of Transformer models. However, little work investigates the learnability of such solutions. In this work, we make progress towards this goal. Inspired by recent loss landscape analysis work, we propose preliminary sample complexity bounds for learning C-RASP constructions with Transformers.

We study the problem of efficient online proportional sampling from a high-dimensional domain under a $σ$-smoothed adversary, where the sampling distribution is induced by a dynamically evolving weight function defined over a sequence of piecewise-structured partitions. This setting captures a broad range of applications, including principal-agent games (e.g., pricing and contract design), and algorithm configuration and parameter tuning. The central challenge is maintaining an efficient data structure as the induced partition grows increasingly complex over time -- naively, the number of subregions can grow as $O(t^d)$ by round $t$ in $d$ dimensions. We design a data structure that supports efficient updates and proportional sampling while avoiding the cost of explicitly maintaining this exponential growth, where the discontinuities are structured from axis-parallel hyperplanes. Under a $σ$-smoothed adaptive adversary, we prove a tight $O(\sqrt{σT})$ bound on the depth of our data structure, and an $O(\log T)$ bound under a random-order adversary -- to our knowledge, the first such results for this class of problems. We apply this framework to online learning with piecewise-structured rewards, obtaining efficient no-regret algorithms under both full-information and bandit feedback, with provable sublinear regret guarantees.

The problem of constrained online convex optimization is considered, where at each round, once a learner commits to an action $x_t \in \mathcal{X} \subset \mathbb{R}^d$, a convex loss function $f_t$ and a convex constraint function $g_t$ that drives the constraint $g_t(x)\le 0$ are revealed. The objective is to simultaneously minimize the static regret and cumulative constraint violation (CCV) compared to the benchmark that knows the loss functions and constraint functions $f_t$ and $g_t$ for all $t$ ahead of time, and chooses a static optimal action that is feasible with respect to all $g_t(x)\le 0$. Currently, the best known algorithm is OGD+Projection algorithm of [Vaze and Sinha, 2025] that has simultaneous regret of $O(\sqrt{T})$ and CCV of $O(T^{1/3})$ for $d=2$ [Balasundaram et al., 2026], and simultaneous regret of $O(\sqrt{T})$ and CCV of $O(\sqrt{T})$ for any $d$ [Sarkar and Sinha, 2026]. In this paper, we show that the CCV of the OGD+Projection algorithm is $Ω(T^{\frac{d-1}{2d}})$. This is the first such lower bound result.