Identifiability

Identifiability of tensor decompositions is often established through linear-algebraic conditions on the factor families. For nonnegative decompositions, however, positivity provides additional information that is not captured by dimension and independence alone: nonnegative terms cannot cancel, and their supports constrain competing decompositions. We introduce a positive scattering term that quantifies this additional source of identifiability and combine it with the dimension budget underlying the Lovitz--Petrov generalization of Kruskal's theorem. For every subset of components, we obtain two sufficient conditions: a threshold of $2|S|-2$ guarantees minimality and nonnegative rank, while the stronger threshold $2|S|-1$ guarantees uniqueness among nonnegative decompositions of the same length. The key result is a positive splitting inequality for irreducible exchanges of nonnegative rank-one tensors, which combines the dimension constraint with support-induced geometric rigidity. Although the scattering term is defined through an optimization over intermediate factor spaces, we show that its mode costs are exactly $0$, $1$, or $+\infty$, yielding an exact activation characterization in terms of graph connectivity. The resulting criterion can strictly certify sparse nonnegative tensor decompositions beyond the reach of Kruskal and Lovitz--Petrov conditions, including examples for which those conditions fail even after reshaping. In the matrix case, the two criteria reduce respectively to full-rank factorization and two-sided separability.

In the natural sciences, symmetries and cause-effect relationships are ubiquitous. Yet for complex machine-learning tasks, like world-modeling in reinforcement learning, they appear difficult to harness. We propose a formal description of statistical systems based on symmetries in data leaving causal mechanisms invariant. The result is an abstract, simple and general mathematical language for causal reasoning. This paper provides formal descriptions of models and queries, setting up this language, and the formal infrastructure and strategies for their mathematically rigorous identification from data within this formalism. This approach reproduces and matches standard theoretical results on IID data and transport of experimental and non-experimental data. But its main purpose is to unify and substantially extend the scope of causal reasoning, in going beyond IID data and in approaching complex causal queries not captured by do- or soft-interventions. This new perspective on causally relevant aspects of data-modeling additionally sheds new light on well-known structures like c-components or hedges but also includes aspects of missing data and is inherently well-suited for the description of transfer and robustness properties.

Experimental design is commonly framed as choosing the experiment expected to provide the most information. Under partial identifiability however, persistent nuisance uncertainty can make the same observation carry different structural meanings. We introduce Resolution-Aware Experimental Design (RAED), which selects an experiment by the smallest expected nonempty structural candidate set achievable subject to false-exclusion control. We prove an exact cross-nuisance aliasing separation: an experiment can be preferred by structural and full-latent information gain, average classification, and nuisance-marginalized informativeness while having arbitrarily poorer valid structural resolution. RAED nevertheless preserves the expected ordering under a genuine composite Blackwell comparison. To make this criterion operational, we develop a learned score-based implementation with finite-sample nuisance-average and positive-tail calibration, and characterize a rare-tail sample-complexity obstruction. Under constrained sensing, two subsurface-flow benchmarks exhibit genuine RAED--expected-information-gain (EIG) experiment-selection disagreements, with the clearest and largest held-out resolution differences in WCA. In a fluvial benchmark, tail protection changes the selected physical experiment and replaces hard-region false exclusions primarily with explicit ambiguity. In a mechanistic methane-oxidation benchmark, a prospectively specified 5% false-exclusion tolerance also yields a nontrivial finite-sample population guarantee for tail-sensitive nuisance risk, with 95% joint confidence across all three structural families.

As vehicular networks move toward 5G/6G edge intelligence, federated learning (FL) is widely promoted as a privacy-preserving way for vehicles and infrastructure to train shared models without exposing raw sensor data. Yet the updates clients transmit still leak enough information to identify who sent them, which threatens the anonymity that safety-critical V2X applications assume and adds to existing concerns over adversarial ML, model poisoning, and backdoor attacks. We study server-side client identity inference from transmitted weight deltas using inertial (IMU) measurements, evaluated on the UCI Human Activity Recognition (HAR) benchmark as an accessible proxy for the IMU streams produced onboard connected vehicles. Across five attack classifiers and five non-IID partitions, an honest-but-curious server recovers client identity with near-perfect accuracy (approximately 1.000) from undefended updates, confirming a concrete identifiability risk. We then quantify the privacy-utility trade-off of a lightweight clip-then-noise defense by sweeping Gaussian noise (sigma in {0.00, 0.05, 0.10, 0.20, 0.50, 1.00}) at fixed clipping (C=1.0), and report formal (epsilon, delta)-DP budgets through Renyi accounting. A practical region (sigma in [0.1, 0.2]) drives attack accuracy to near-random while costing under 5% relative FL accuracy. Ensemble FL supplies complementary structural privacy with a 1/K anonymity-set bound and no noise penalty. Results are supported by cryptographic (SHA-256) train/evaluation gradient disjointness, three seeds, and a count-normalized attacker-advantage metric. We position HAR explicitly as a proxy and discuss what validation on true vehicular telemetry would require.

LLM benchmark scores can be precise even when the observation protocol does not identify the behavioral property they are intended to measure. In a controlled, solver-grounded setting, we formalize a protocol-level identifiability audit over a finite behavioral policy class: given policies H, observation support O, and estimand $τ$, we test whether O separates every pair with different $τ$. The audit requires zero model calls and resolves our diagnostic case: base-only observation collapses seven frozen deterministic policies into one equivalence class; full support yields seven classes and no cross-estimand collisions; every leave-one-out support retains a constructive collision witness. Empirically, both constrained-generation variants have pair-validity 1.0, yet base accuracy and selective-response fidelity diverge - 0.620 versus 0.324 across six balanced oracle-transition directions (cluster-bootstrap 95% CI [0.600, 0.642] vs. [0.304, 0.345]) - and the gap recurs on a second deterministic source (0.646 vs. 0.331). The audit also synthesizes a minimum identifying support $O^*$ for the frozen policy class: two cells instead of the full 36-cell tensor. This case shows how evaluation-design validity can be checked structurally before model inference and why base correctness does not determine intervention-response fidelity.

We present the mathematical foundations of linear independent component analysis (ICA) models based on standard literature in a self-contained note. It is aimed at readers with a background in measure-theoretic probability theory. We first develop the theory of the characteristic functions of probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$, including their analyticity and the way in which they determine and characterise the distributions. We then focus on several identifiability results of ICA models with successively strengthened assumptions on the sources: from merely non-constant, to non-Gaussian, to Gaussian-free independent sources. Under the strictest assumptions, we show that the independent sources are identifiable up to translation, permutation, scales and signs, and this even in the presence of additive Gaussian noise. Furthermore, we present the online equivariant gradient descent ICA algorithm for recovering the independent sources from data, in the standard complete noiseless non-Gaussian ICA setting.

The Relativity of Causal Knowledge (RCK) explains how a network of agents with different structural causal models can exchange causal knowledge through a shared interventionally consistent abstraction, or backbone. We ask the prior identification question that this transport mechanism presupposes: when is that backbone determined by the agents' private causal knowledge? In the basic two-agent common-effect case, two private causes influence one shared outcome and each agent identifies only the single-cause causal marginal relevant to its own perspective. We show that, under standard compatibility, non-degeneracy, and local overlap assumptions, those local causal marginals do not identify a unique backbone. Infinitely many joint intervention kernels can induce exactly the same private reports while disagreeing on joint interventions. We then give a conditional recovery result. Additive separability removes the hidden interaction degree of freedom, but observational residual summaries remain insufficient. Identification becomes possible when agents communicate causally identified response functions. An education value-added example illustrates why this is first a communication problem, and only then a policy-composition problem.

Mechanistic interpretability explains models by identifying circuits inside them, but has no way to tell whether a circuit is a property of the model or an artifact of the method that found it. Sparse autoencoders illustrate the problem: different seeds and widths recover materially different features from the same activations, and no theory says whether that variability is incidental or structural. We put dictionary learning for interpretability on an identifiability footing. Treating the forward pass as a controlled dynamical system with depth as time and lifting it with the Koopman operator yields a finite linear realisation whose \emph{spectrum} is a coordinate-free property of the model. We prove the spectrum is recoverable from $M$ calibration samples at rate $M^{-1/2}$ up to permutation - to our knowledge the first identifiability theorem for a mechanistic-interpretability primitive, with a matching minimax lower bound, a median-of-means variant for heavy-tailed activations, and a dissociation theorem: whenever the realisation is non-normal, the directions carrying activation variance and the directions carrying information across depth cannot coincide. The identifiable object and the legible object are not the same object. On GPT-2 small, Gemma-2-2B and Qwen3-8B-Base the spectrum converges everywhere and attains the predicted exponent on Qwen3-8B-Base ($0.506 \pm 0.031$); shortfalls collapse onto one curve against each cell's sample threshold. Koopman modes beat random directions but lose to principal components on indirect-object identification, with the gap decaying $4.1\times$ in depth-distance, as the theorem predicts. The Koopman spectrum is an identifiable, model-intrinsic fingerprint with a stated error bar, not a legible decomposition.

We study what can be recovered about the transition probabilities of a Markov decision process from optimal actions alone. This is closely related to the inverse problem considered by Letcher et al., who ask when the dynamics can be recovered from numerical $Q$-values. Here the numerical values themselves are not observed; only the optimal actions are known, for every reward in a given class. For state-action rewards $r(s,a)$, knowing the optimal actions for every reward also tells us how much better one action is than another when each is followed by the same fixed policy. This is still not enough to determine the transition probabilities uniquely. We prove that two kernels give the same optimal actions for every reward exactly when $$Q_{s,a} = \Bigl(P_{s,a}+\tfrac1γe_s^{\mathsf T}(L-I)\Bigr)L^{-1}$$ for one invertible matrix $L$ satisfying $L\mathbf 1=\mathbf 1$. Near a kernel with strictly positive entries, there is an $n(n-1)$-dimensional family of different kernels with this property. The result is unchanged if we consider only rewards having a unique optimal action at every state. We then compare this with rewards of the forms $r(s)$ and $r(s,a,s')$. Rewards that depend on the next state can usually recover the transition kernel itself: every row at a state with at least two actions is determined, and we describe exactly when a row at a state with one action can remain hidden. State rewards reveal less: two kernels give the same optimal actions exactly when every deterministic policy is optimal for the same set of rewards. The results show how the form of the reward affects what can be learned about the dynamics from optimal actions alone.

Autonomous agents now carry out entire data analyses, selecting cohorts, joining tables, and fitting models with little step-by-step supervision. When such an analysis turns out to be wrong, someone must determine which operation caused it. A recent approach does this without any labelled mistakes, learning instead from analyses known to be sound and flagging operations that depart from what that model predicts; how reliable such audits are has not been studied. This paper supplies that analysis. The choice of score determines whether an error can be localized at all. If each operation is scored by how surprising it is given the operation immediately preceding it, then operations that merely inherit an earlier error are indistinguishable from correct ones, so one mistake produces one flag; scores computed against a longer reconstruction of the intended analysis instead spread a single mistake across many operations. We quantify how far they spread, and how to choose the comparison length when an error accumulates gradually rather than at once. We then give procedures that control the proportion of falsely flagged operations within a single audited analysis, requiring only that sound analyses be exchangeable rather than that the fitted model be correct, and we quantify how much the guarantees weaken when the model is imperfect or when the analysis was selected for review in a way that depends on its content. Finally we establish a limit on what any such audit can report: errors below a certain magnitude cannot be attributed at all, being indistinguishable from ordinary variation among sound analyses. This limit falls so slowly as more sound analyses are collected that at the representation sizes now in use a hundredfold increase reduces it by under two percent, so the dimension of the representation rather than the volume of training data is the binding constraint.

Masked prediction learns by inferring missing variables from visible context. When does optimizing this conditional task recover the true joint data distribution? We study this question using an $\varepsilon$-identifiability modulus, which measures the worst-case joint-distribution error permitted by excess risk at most $\varepsilon$. For distributions with separated global modes, schedules retaining large visible contexts can permit substantial mode-weight errors at exponentially small excess risk. An exact information decomposition explains why: for a fixed mask, the loss penalizes only the mode-weight mismatch that remains unresolved by the visible context. For small mode-weight perturbations, the objective's sensitivity is proportional to residual mode uncertainty averaged over masks. Under joint masked-block log loss, low-visibility masks that retain mode uncertainty restore this sensitivity, while positive full-mask probability bounds joint-distribution error in terms of excess risk. We empirically validate these predictions through exact calculations and controlled stochastic optimization.

Estimating causal effects from real-world spatiotemporal data is challenging due to hidden confounders and interference. Standard causal identification methods assume conditional exchangeability given observed covariates, which fails whenever hidden confounders affect both treatment and outcomes - a common setting in domains such as climate, environmental policy, epidemiology, and regional economics. In this paper, we propose a novel spatiotemporal proximal causal inference framework that extends proximal identification theory to spatiotemporal settings. The proposed method jointly captures local and neighborhood-level confounding information by introducing treatment- and outcome-inducing proxies, and we derive a spatiotemporal outcome confounding bridge function that identifies the potential outcome without requiring direct recovery of the hidden confounder. We establish the identifiability of this bridge function under proxy exclusion restrictions and a spatiotemporal completeness condition, and show that the resulting estimator recovers the outcome through a proximal generalization of the g-computation formula. To operationalize this identification result, we propose a neural architecture that learns proxies via transformer-based spatiotemporal encoders - coupled with a conditional mutual information critic to enforce exclusion restrictions and a moment-matching network to guarantee that the learned bridge function satisfies the underlying identifying equation. We further introduce a stabilized weighting scheme to address treatment support imbalance. Experiments on synthetic datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves comparable performance to baseline causal inference methods, while providing, to our knowledge, the first theoretically grounded outcomes for the hidden confounding in the presence of spatiotemporal interference through a proximal causal inference framework.

Matrix factorisation is a fundamental tool for exploiting low-dimensional structure in high-dimensional data, with applications such as data compression, denoising, structure discovery, interpretable representation learning, and dimensionality reduction. Compared to conventional two-factor models, matrix tri-factorisation provides greater modelling flexibility, while sparsity constraints often improve both interpretability and recovery performance. Although the role of sparsity has been extensively studied for two-factor matrix factorisation, rigorous theoretical guarantees for general real-valued matrix tri-factorisation remain largely unexplored. To address this gap, we establish, to the best of our knowledge, the first rigorous theoretical study for sparsity-induced identifiability in general real-valued matrix tri-factorisation. Our analysis is enabled by a novel decomposition strategy that transforms the original problem into two coupled auxiliary factorisation problems, while preserving the structural information necessary to the recovery of the original factor matrices from the observations. Building upon this decomposition, we derive recovery guarantees and structural consistency results that characterise how coefficient sparsity influences the sufficient recovery conditions, convergence behaviour, spectral approximation error, high-probability bounds, and structure preservation. Comprehensive Monte Carlo experiments validate the proposed theory and demonstrate close agreement between the theoretical results and empirical observations.

A central premise of latent world models is that predicting the future forces a representation to internalize the physics of its environment. Which physical quantities does a trained latent actually contain, and what decides this? We answer with controlled interventions in POKEWORLD, an interactive environment whose visually identical objects hide mass, drag, and contact stiffness. A certificate-gated protocol first certifies each parameter as recoverable from raw observations, then measures whether it enters the latent, so a null result can be attributed to the objective rather than to the environment. The resulting identifiability map has two organizing mechanisms and one frontier. Inputs limit what can be known, while prediction targets decide what is retained. Stiffness enters the latent only when touch is forecast ($R^2=0.50$, compared with $-0.02$ when the same signal is merely fused into the input), and under single-step prediction a vision-only latent discards even perfectly visible object state. Drag marks the frontier. It carries a recoverability certificate of 0.89 yet plateaus near 0.13 under every deterministic prediction objective we test, while a supervised head on the same trunk reaches 0.45. Parameters whose readout is slow and ratio-type under the sensed coordinates fall outside what these objectives acquire. On RH20T, an input-target factorial across scaling curves reproduces both mechanisms across two robots and 4,258 episodes. Every arm missing information or prediction pressure stays flat over a fivefold data range, and only the full multimodal objective forecasts force beyond a persistence baseline, with held-out gains that grow with scale. Objective structure determines which physical parameters a latent acquires, and additional data improves only the parameters it already acquires.

Source apportionment from sparse urban air-quality sensors is an inverse problem limited by sensor placement, wind-driven transport, background variation, and noise. Known or proxy emission inventories make attribution meaningful by restricting the unknown source field to a finite set of candidate groups, but do not guarantee those groups are distinguishable from the observations. We represent time-varying source activity with a low-dimensional nonnegative temporal basis and formulate inventory-based apportionment as a wind-conditioned lagged inverse problem in which each source--basis coefficient produces a sensor-time fingerprint. After projecting out a separate low-dimensional background space, the relevant object is the projected lagged response matrix $\widetilde H_Φ$: exact identifiability at the chosen basis resolution requires its full column rank, while noise-robust attribution is controlled by its singular values, coefficient visibility, background absorption, pairwise coherence, and ray distance. We propose an identifiability-aware apportionment (IASA) framework that estimates nonnegative source--basis coefficients, reconstructs activity trajectories, and reports uncertainty and conservative grouping recommendations for indistinguishable sources. We instantiate it on a New Delhi platform built from government PM$_{2.5}$ and wind records, regulatory sensor locations, and four proxy source groups, and define controlled and observed evaluations of recovery, ambiguity, wind diversity, background stress, transport error, inventory robustness, and residual adequacy. IASA reports the attribution resolution defensible under the declared inventories, transport, background, lag, and noise rather than the most detailed possible vector.

We prove the identifiability of deep generative models (DGMs) with piecewise-affine (PWA) decoders and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) priors, in a purely unsupervised setting. We introduce three algebraic contrast principles for symmetry breaking: domain contrast, which trivializes the mixture symmetry group; mechanism contrast, which ensures every decoder branch is witnessed by a unique boundary; and interaction contrast, which forbids parameter conspiracies between latent components and decoder branches. Together they exploit the interplay between the discrete combinatorics of the PWA map and the continuous symmetry structure of the latent GMM. Continuity is replaced by algebraic symmetry conditions; injectivity is decoupled from structural identification and required only for pointwise inversion. Our results form a hierarchy: from law identifiability (LID; latent distribution up to a global affine map) through map identifiability (MID; decoder up to the same map) to posterior and pointwise identifiability. The ICA-form ambiguity emerges under conditions on diagonal component covariances. Assumptions are only on the data-generating process, not on learning methods, except for the interaction contrast. To our knowledge this is the first to make algebraic symmetry-breaking the engine of nonlinear identifiability, the first to admit discontinuous decoders, and the first to handle fully non-injective decoders, where every observation admits multiple latent codes.

World model serves as a promising tool to infer environment dynamics under high-dimensional observations and candidate actions. Recently, LeCun's JEPA provides a compelling framework for learning such models in representation space. Its action-conditioned extension plays a central role in visual control and latent-space planning, but leaves a fundamental question: can it recover the controlled dynamics from nonlinear observations? This paper presents a joint identifiability condition for controlled world models with Gaussian latent states, which consists of two coupled components: (1) representation identifiability and (2) transition identifiability. The former depends on the spectral separation property while the latter is related to non-degenerate variation of conditional action. We prove that when this condition holds, minimizing the LeJEPA-style predictive objective can recover both latent states and controlled dynamics in the sense of orthogonal transformation. We further prove that the upper bound of transition prediction error is inversely proportional to the spectral separation margin. We also characterize an attainable amplification of counterfactual prediction error that scales inversely with the weakest conditional action-excitation margin. The theoretical predictions are empirically supported across four nonlinear observation settings.

Estimating contemporaneous bidirectional interactions from observational data is difficult because each outcome is endogenous to the other, while flexible regressions may capture only reduced-form dependence. This paper proposes SEM-DNN, a heteroscedastic neural simultaneous-equation estimator that learns reciprocal structural interactions without external instruments. Identification exploits conditional covariance diagonalization: when structural shocks have zero conditional means, are conditionally uncorrelated given predetermined covariates, and exhibit nonproportional conditional variances, only the true interaction coefficients diagonalize the conditional residual covariance across the feature space. The method jointly approximates nonlinear structural mean functions and feature-dependent variances using a diagonal Gaussian quasi-likelihood that incorporates the simultaneous-system Jacobian. We establish unique identification and positive-definite local curvature of the profiled population criterion and show that, under neural-profile compatibility conditions, the implemented neural criterion inherits this curvature despite nonunique network parameterizations. The coefficients admit a causal interpretation when the structural equations represent autonomous mechanisms that remain invariant under the relevant interventions. Monte Carlo experiments with nonlinear, high-dimensional nuisance functions and non-Gaussian shocks show that SEM-DNN recovers structural effects more reliably than parametric, kernel-based, and separate-equation neural alternatives as information increases, although at greater computational cost. An application to ready-to-eat cereal scanner data illustrates how the method can study contemporaneous price-sales feedback and assess identification strength, residual diagonalization, variance calibration, and optimization sensitivity.

Power grids, markets, and interacting populations, settle into feedback driven equilibria observed through unknown sensors. Our Equilibrium Causal Game (ECG) joins a game to its cyclic causal model, hidden inputs, sensor map, and rules for interventions and equilibrium selection; interventions edit declared objects and recompute equilibrium. Under stated conditions, ECG-separation is sound but incomplete in our examples. Back-door/half-trek routes identify observed queries. Yet for an untouched rotationally symmetric Gaussian block, second moments determine only a source-frame rotation, across which distinct-variable effects generically change. Unknown sensing creates a separate ambiguity. In passive stable linear models without self-effects, unknown wiring and full-rank unknown sensing leave $B$ completely unidentified for $d\ge2$. Under LiNG, non-Gaussianity removes the source rotation; mechanism interventions separate sensing from interactions. With unknown support, invariant sensing, aligned responses, and well-posed single-target interventions identify $(H,B)$ up to declared equivalence. Of $d$ targets, $d-1$ suffice exactly when the sole untargeted node directly parents all others; otherwise $d$ are needed. Acquisition probes are excluded; known wiring gives no universal count. With nonlinear sensing, isotropic Gaussian source blocks admit hidden twists within and across blocks in labelled environments preserving required radial laws. Conversely, under stated positivity, informative one-block changes, rank, and irreducibility conditions, the finest independent source-block representation is identified within the stated alternative class up to block permutation and blockwise coordinate changes, but not downstream mechanisms or the sensor/interaction split. Together, these results show which causal conclusions equilibrium data support and which require targeted experiments.

The Universal Approximation Theorem states that a neural network with a single hidden layer is sufficient to approximate any continuous univariate function on a compact domain to arbitrary error. However, the uniqueness of such neural network representations is not guaranteed, raising questions about practical identifiability. In this work, we address this concern by analyzing functional equivalence and geometric diversity of neural network approximations to a few elementary mathematical functions. The analysis includes an extensive study of single-layer neural networks and multilayer perceptrons under noisy and noise-free conditions. Beyond just network capacity, we study the geometric properties through the lens of sloppiness, characterized by the eigen spectrum of the Hessian of the cost function and the effective rank to quantify the dimensionality of parameter space. The study reveals large equivalence classes of functionally indistinguishable yet geometrically diverse networks that consistently exhibit low effective rank and structural redundancy. Finally, a model select criterion is proposed for identifying optimal models based on parsimony, ease of estimation, and inference efficiency.

Symbolic discovery of governing equations from data is limited not only by algorithm design and data volume, but by the geometry of the attractor: what the long-run dynamics allow to be recovered. Using a within-system design on Lorenz-84, where one forcing parameter drives fixed-point, limit-cycle, and chaotic regimes while the governing equations and library stay fixed, we show that a single number, $λ_{\min}(M)$, the smallest eigenvalue of the invariant-measure moment matrix, sets the identifiability ceiling for both sparse regression (SINDy) and evolutionary symbolic regression (PySR). Derived from the Birkhoff ergodic theorem and obtained from a short reference trajectory before any run, $λ_{\min}(M)$ measures how fully the attractor covers function space: where it vanishes, recovery is impossible for any algorithm, sparse or combinatorial alike; as it grows, both algorithms improve. Chaos raises $λ_{\min}(M)$ by spreading the attractor, but also enlarges it and amplifies noise; because noise enters SINDy's regression bottleneck linearly and PySR's discrimination channel superlinearly, the same transition can push the two methods in opposite directions, so deeper chaos is not uniformly better. Parameter-free mechanistic scores from this framework transfer without refitting to a held-out Lorenz-96 system, confirming mechanism rather than curve-fitting; a criterion read from the equations predicts when added chaos will not improve conditioning. We also introduce Soft F1, a coefficient-weighted structural metric that resolves performance differences invisible to binary-success and predictive scores. The first question of discovery is then not which algorithm, but what the attractor permits.

Conditional diffusion models have become a powerful and flexible framework for learning complex conditional distributions from labeled data. In practice, however, acquiring high-quality labels is costly and time-consuming, leaving large volumes of unlabeled data unused. To address this, we introduce label-augmented conditional diffusion (LACD), a simple and effective approach that incorporates unlabeled examples by assigning them a designated trivial label and performing joint denoising score matching over the augmented dataset. We provide sufficient conditions guaranteeing population-level identifiability of the target conditional distribution under this scheme. Moreover, we establish rigorous statistical guarantees: when sufficiently many unlabeled samples are available, the sampling distribution produced by LACD converges strictly faster than the purely supervised estimator in total variation distance, and at least as fast in Wasserstein-1 distance. Extensive experiments on synthetic, image, and tabular benchmarks corroborate our theory and show substantial gains in sample efficiency and generative performance compared with the purely supervised estimator.

We formalize verification in causal graphical models: deciding whether a given observational formula identifies a target interventional distribution. This opens a problem complementary to identification, asking not whether any identifying formula exists, but whether the given formula is identifying. We show that even sound and complete solutions to identification do not solve verification. We propose a falsifier as a first practical route forward, prove that it induces an almost-surely correct verifier for regular exponential-family models, and use the resulting verifier to develop the gateway test, which finds all sets admissible for use in a front-door formula.

Evaluating decisions made under uncertainty is hard when labeled outcomes are scarce, costly, or confounded with luck. We treat subjective expected utility (SEU) maximization as a stated standard and define a graded measure -- SEU sensitivity -- of an agent's conformity to it. The vehicle is a softmax choice model with a sensitivity parameter $α$ on SEU-valued alternatives; the contribution is a sequence of identifiability results for $α$ and for belief and utility parameters $(β, δ)$, validated in Stan via prior predictive checks, parameter recovery, and simulation-based calibration (SBC), with finite-sample caveats intact. In the uncertain-choice-only model $m_0$, $α$ is identifiable given the expected-utility vector $η$ and sharply recovered, while $(β, δ)$ are only weakly informed: the posterior barely contracts and concentrates on a $β$-$δ$ trade-off. In the extended model $m_1$, $δ$ becomes identifiable in principle via a $β$-free risky block, but its practical recovery gain at realistic sample sizes is negligible (matched-count CI-width reduction under 1%), and that block yields no detected $α$-precision gain at matched choice count. These are two distinct phenomena: for $δ$, identifiability does not imply precise estimability at realistic $n$; for $α$, identifiability is silent about what governs finite-$n$ precision. Marginal SBC passes for both models even where the joint posterior is weakly informed -- a demarcation we make precise. A two-by-two application (GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, each on insurance-claims triage and Ellsberg-style urns, with sampling temperature as the lever) runs end-to-end on real LLM choice data, detecting a structured comparative $α$ effect in two of four cells.

Memory-efficient optimizers such as GaLore train large language models by projecting gradients onto a rank-r subspace recomputed every T steps, assuming this subspace is a slowly drifting object that can be tracked. We show that beyond a small reproducible core, there is no such object. Two estimates of the top-r subspace computed at the same step from disjoint minibatches disagree as much as estimates computed T steps apart (0.73 vs 0.74 of the maximal chordal distance sqrt(2r), at Pythia-160M with r=128): the apparent rotation at each refresh is dominated by estimator noise. This holds across four model families in three architecture classes from 70M to 6.9B parameters, strengthening with scale, and more weakly in a vision transformer. Only ~39 of 128 directions are reproducible across minibatches, and averaging cannot recover the rest: under N-fold averaging the gradient's spectral tail shrinks as N^(-1/4) rather than the N^(-1/2) of pure noise, so no averaging budget makes the subspace well defined. What helps instead follows from treating each refresh as a change of coordinates for Adam's state. Carrying the second moment blindly is provably about (r-k*)/2 worse than the best rotation-blind estimator, while the first moment transports exactly through the rotation, the optimal linear map under isotropic gradients and the rule LDAdam uses. At 1B over 40k steps (3 seeds), full LDAdam reaches 18.7 perplexity at beta2=0.999, beating untransported GaLore after its best beta2 fix (19.3); shortening the second-moment memory to beta2=0.99 helps the refreshing optimizers, though for canonical GaLore the effect is small and a full-rank control reverses it. One measurable fact, subspace non-identifiability, clarifies why GaLore works, which patches work, and what to check before trusting a low-rank assumption: the reproducible rank k*.

Present-day quantum computing is cloud-based, where a user submits a circuit to a service provider's proprietary backend hardware. While providers may wish to hide implementation details, scheduling choices, or even which physical device was used, noisy finite-shot outputs can carry backend-specific fingerprints: information imprinted in the classical output distribution that can reveal the backend identity. So far, such fingerprints have mostly been studied from a benchmarking perspective, with limited attention to privacy considerations for users and providers. This work develops the first formal framework for backend identifiability and its privacy implications. We introduce a backend-identifiability game and use it to formalise routing anonymity as a security notion for quantum cloud services. We show that backend identifiability is a hypothesis-testing problem and prove that, under passive i.i.d. access to a single backend, routing anonymity decays exponentially at the Chernoff rate. We also establish a utility-anonymity trade-off, imposing fundamental limits on how much backend-specific information can be removed from classical outputs without degrading their usefulness. In addition, we observe that, for noisy quantum hardware, identifying fingerprints are inherently an intermediate-depth phenomenon, and establish a depth principle using Pauli-transfer-matrix tools. We complement the theory with experiments on Amazon Braket on AWS, using ion-trap and superconducting quantum processors. We observe 87-90% classification between superconducting backends and 96-100% classification across physical platforms, and find that identifiability can survive natural forms of post-processing. Overall, these results establish routing anonymity as a distinct security requirement for quantum cloud computing, and provide a framework for quantifying and controlling the utility-anonymity trade-off.

When data sources are integrated through a shared interface, a downstream query may or may not be determined by what the interface exposes: two globally consistent worlds can agree on every shared attribute yet disagree on the query answer. This ambiguity is structural -- a property of the interface design, not the data volume -- and cannot be resolved by collecting more records or training a larger model. We formalize query identifiability for data integration under interface laws (functional dependencies that hold uniformly across all legal worlds rather than within a single instance) and prove three results. (i) A polynomial-time certificate (CheckCert) decides identifiability via attribute closure, and is exact on instances that expose any residual ambiguity (closure-separable). (ii) Non-identifiable queries face an irreducible 1/2 minimax error floor for any estimator using only interface evidence, bounding multi-view pretraining systems from below. (iii) A minimum-augmentation algorithm (Greedy-MinAug) finds the smallest set of interface additions to certify a query, reducing to Set Cover (logarithmic approximation). Experiments on synthetic benchmarks, real integration datasets spanning three domains (scholarly, product, restaurant), and schemas up to 10^3 attributes confirm CheckCert is exact, both algorithms run in single-digit milliseconds, and ML classifiers exhibit the predicted error floor and abrupt capability gains.

Persona-Trained Monte Carlo (PTMC) estimates distributions of market-outcome functionals by repeatedly simulating limit-order-book interaction among $K$ neural policy bots whose behavioral personas are drawn from a learned heterogeneity distribution $\mathcal{P}$. This paper develops the statistical theory that makes the word "reliable" precise for such estimators. We decompose estimator variance into a persona-draw component $σ_P^2$ and a within-run component $σ_w^2$, give unbiased ANOVA estimators of both, and derive the variance-optimal allocation of a fixed compute budget between outer persona draws and inner replications. A coupling-based stability bound quantifies how misestimation of $\mathcal{P}$ and error in the trained policy propagate into the estimand, yielding a three-term total-error budget whose terms are separately estimable; a uniform-in-horizon version holds under a Doeblin condition on the market chain. The main contribution is an identification theory for heterogeneous news reaction: under a fixed response nonlinearity, the aggregate impact curve $A(z)=\mathbb{E}_Q[g(ηz)]$ detects heterogeneous news sensitivity through a strict Jensen gap and identifies the distribution $Q$ locally via odd moments and Hausdorff determinacy, with sharp failure when the response family is unknown. We provide $\sqrt{n}$-consistent estimators and a boundary-corrected test of homogeneous news reaction. Two separation theorems delimit when PTMC is provably preferable to homogeneous-population simulators and reduced-form forecasters, formalizing an irreducible Jensen bias floor and the Lucas critique as a minimax limit on intervention extrapolation. All proofs are given in full; guarantees are classified as unconditional (Monte Carlo convergence), conditional worst-case (the error budget), or open (the large-$K$ mean-field limit).

In many multisensor systems, measurements from different sensors are subject to unknown relative time delays. Accurate state estimation requires that delays be accounted for and, when possible, calibrated online. We consider the case of aided navigation, where measurements from a single aiding sensor are subject to an unknown but constant delay relative to the inertial measurement stream, and study the identifiability of the resulting system. Critically, identifiability depends not only on the temporal structure of the measurements, but also on the shape of the vehicle trajectory: some trajectories are sufficiently informative to support unique recovery of the delay and the navigation state, while others are not. Using the special Galilean group, we characterize these uninformative (or degenerate) trajectories and relate them to a continuous symmetry of the delayed measurement model, providing geometric insight into identifiability failures. We show that the class of trajectories for which identifiability fails is larger than previously reported, and connect our characterization to the familiar linearized, Jacobian-based analysis. Although our development is motivated by aided navigation, the underlying ideas apply more broadly to estimation problems on Lie groups with delayed measurements.

We consider sparse multivariate stochastic systems that evolve in continuous time according to a causal mechanism and present methodology to recover the system's time-infinitesimal transition mechanism from mere cross-sectional data. This observational paradigm is motivated by applications such as gene expression analysis, where destructive experimental techniques may only allow recording data once over a cell's lifetime. Precisely, we assume the system follows a time-homogeneous diffusion process that has reached an equilibrium distribution at observation time. Further, we assume the causal mechanism is fully described by the diffusion drift, is acyclic, and its causal structure graph is known. In this setting, we prove that the full causal mechanism, i.e., the drift function, can be non-parametrically identified under a weak non-explosion criterion. We derive a non-parametric kernel estimator for this challenging inverse problem and prove its consistency. Moreover, we propose a cross-validation scheme for hyperparameter tuning, illustrate the behavior of our estimator in simulations, and we discuss connections with irreversible generative diffusion models and low-frequency sampled data.

In aided inertial navigation, measurements from different sensors are often subject to unknown relative time delays. Consider a single aiding sensor whose measurements have an unknown but constant delay relative to the inertial-measurement data stream. We study the identifiability of the delay and the initial navigation state that parameterizes the trajectory. Identifiability depends on both the temporal structure of the aiding measurements and the form of the trajectory itself. Our geometric analysis shows that, for a larger class of uninformative (i.e., degenerate) trajectories than has previously been reported, the delayed measurement model admits a continuous symmetry that prevents unique delay-and-state recovery.

Causal representation learning for time series has developed strong identifiability results in discrete-time latent causal models, but identifiability in continuous-time latent stochastic differential equation (SDE) models remains largely open. We address this gap using environment-induced shifts in diffusion covariance. We study additive-noise latent SDEs observed through an unknown nonlinear diffeomorphism, with shared drift but environment-specific diffusion covariance. We show that two diagonal diffusion regimes with pairwise distinct coordinate-wise variance ratios identify the latent coordinates up to permutation and scaling, without any sparsity assumption on the drift. We first prove this result for linear Ornstein--Uhlenbeck systems and then extend it to general additive-noise latent SDEs. Under mild smoothness, the instantaneous drift-Jacobian causal graph is identifiable up to the same permutation. We propose a two-stage estimator for latent disentanglement and optional graph recovery; experiments on synthetic systems confirm the predicted identifiability boundary, and an application to Hardanger Bridge monitoring data illustrates the approach on real sensor trajectories.

Learning governing equations from observed solution data is a fundamental challenge in scientific machine learning, yet the theoretical conditions under which a ground-truth ODE can be uniquely and stably identified from multiple solution observations remain largely undeveloped, and no quantitative analysis of the sample complexity of such learning tasks exists in the literature. To address this gap, we introduce the Hausdorff distance on solution sets as the natural metric for comparing differential equations, since it captures the worst-case separation between two equations over all admissible initial conditions and thus encodes the minimax structure of the identification problem. We establish identifiability bounds for governing ODEs across a wide class of structure equations--ranging from linear ODEs to nonlinear classes with Lipschitz (Hölder)-continuous vector fields--characterizing precisely when two distinct equations can be distinguished from solution data. Using this metric, we derive metric entropy estimates for the relevant ODE classes and analyze sample complexity bounds, quantifying how many solution observations are needed to reliably recover the governing equation.

Recovering governing Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) from data is a central challenge in modeling dynamical systems across scientific domains. Existing approaches cast discovery as a static inference problem over fixed datasets, assuming that the observed trajectories are sufficiently informative. However, dynamical systems evolve over large state spaces, and limited data can make multiple equations observationally indistinguishable, leading to identifiability gaps and the recovery of incorrect governing equations. To address this, we introduce LLM-ACES, or LLM-guided Active Closed-loop Equation Search, a closed-loop framework that jointly optimizes symbolic hypothesis construction and adaptive data acquisition. In LLM-ACES, a large language model (LLM) proposes operator priors that partition the large search space into distinct regions, within which candidate equations are fit to the observed data. The disagreement among these candidates guides the acquisition of informative trajectories, creating a feedback loop that iteratively refines both the hypothesis space and the discovered dynamics. On 122 ODE systems spanning ODEBench and ODEBase, LLM-ACES achieves the lowest median NMSE, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines by several orders of magnitude while achieving a high symbolic accuracy of 46.2% and 52.4%, respectively. Our analysis further shows that LLM-ACES is sample-efficient, achieving better performance with one-tenth the data. Furthermore, LLM-ACES's feedback-driven data acquisition makes it robust to noise and recovers the correct symbolic structure, while baselines introduce spurious terms that fit the data locally but obscure the true governing relationships.

When two or more parameters or labels produce similar data, they are degenerate, or hard to distinguish. Degeneracies render both label prediction and inverse problems difficult, since both machine learning algorithms and probabilistic samplers rely on the distinguishability of data and its gradients with respect to parameters. However, identifying degeneracies in physical models or real-world datasets can be elucidating about the choice of model or the underlying process that produces the data. We present the degeneracy distillery, a method that (1) detects and (2) resolves degenerate parameter combinations (a) automatically and (b) symbolically, from parameter-data (or parameter-simulation) pairs alone, through estimation and flattening of the Fisher information matrix. By exploring the information geometry of the likelihood, we characterize degeneracies as an intrinsic property of the physical model, requiring no realised data observation. We demonstrate our approach on a range of synthetic and real-world problems, discovering symbolic coordinate transformations that identify the combinations of parameters of a model which yield independent effects on the data. The resulting coordinates flatten the Fisher information in expectation globally, in contrast to posterior-based methods that flatten only at a single point, and substantially reduce the simulation budget required for downstream neural posterior estimation. In test cases we require up to $10\times$ fewer simulations for posterior estimation at matched validation calibration whilst simultaneously gaining physical insight on the system.

This paper explores unsupervised disentangled representation learning from a functional perspective. We define latent concepts as factors that influence observations through locally orthogonal directions, formalized as an orthogonality constraint on the Jacobian of the generative mapping. We prove that this condition yields identifiability of general nonlinear generative models, without requiring statistical independence or causal assumptions, provided the latent domain admits all combinations of factor values. Experiments with orthogonality-regularized normalizing flows empirically confirm the theory, demonstrate reliable recovery of ground-truth factors, and shed light on the success of VAEs. These findings challenge the prevailing impossibility claims for unsupervised disentanglement and provide a principled alternative foundation.

Reliable generalization in conditional latent variable models requires understanding both identifiability and extrapolation: how observed variation across attributes determines latent structure, and how that structure determines distributions at unseen attributes. However, existing identifiability and extrapolation guarantees are largely model-specific, with separate analyses in nonlinear ICA, causal representation learning, perturbation modeling, and related conditional latent variable models. We introduce concept modulation models (CMMs), an attribute-indexed class of conditional generative models with structure $A\to Λ\to C\to X$, where attributes select modulators, modulators induce latent concept laws, and concepts generate observed features. CMMs lift transition-based identifiability to conditional settings by showing that feature agreement on observed attributes induces a latent concept transition constrained by the CMM class. We express these constraints through attribute potentials, log-density ratios between attribute-conditioned concept laws, separating the generic lifting step from model-specific rigidity arguments. The same potentials control extrapolation: agreement at unseen attributes holds exactly when the transported attribute-potential identities extend to those attributes. This yields algebraic extrapolation criteria, identifies the common potential-based proof objects behind several existing identifiability and extrapolation results, and, when combined with the model-specific rigidity arguments in those works, recovers their stated conclusions.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) are an attractive tool for partial-observation problems in biology, where the governing dynamics are known but some compartments cannot be measured. Chemotherapy pharmacokinetics (PK) is a clean instance: drug concentration in plasma is routinely measured, but concentration in tissue -- which determines tumour kill and off-target toxicity -- is not. We benchmark a PINN against the standard clinical baseline (nonlinear least-squares on the analytical biexponential plasma solution, hereafter NLS) and a physics-agnostic neural baseline (a data-only MLP) on two PK problems. On the linear two-compartment problem, NLS is near-optimal; the PINN matches it to within a small constant factor while also producing the tissue curve in a single training pass, whereas the data-only MLP fails on tissue by roughly 10x. On a Michaelis-Menten extension (saturable elimination), the biexponential closed form no longer exists, so NLS is mis-specified and silently returns meaningless rate constants. The PINN instead exposes a deeper fact: the Michaelis-Menten two-compartment model is non-identifiable from plasma alone, and the PINN reports this honestly by converging to a basin with k12 -> 0. Adding two sparse tissue observations largely resolves identifiability: across five seeds the PINN recovers k21 to within 1% of truth and Vmax, Km to within one standard-deviation bar, while k12 moves in the correct direction (0.02 -> 0.82) but remains ~2 sigma below truth -- a recovery the closed-form NLS estimator cannot attempt at all, because its biexponential ansatz describes only plasma. Our claim is not that PINNs beat NLS. It is that PINNs offer a uniform recipe that ties the textbook estimator on the textbook problem, exposes structural identifiability that the textbook estimator hides, and absorbs heterogeneous measurements within a single loss.

Klindt, LeCun, and Balestriero (arXiv:2605.26379) proved that Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs) achieve linear identifiability, the linear recovery of the world's true latent variables, if and only if the world's latent dynamics follow a Gaussian, stationary process. This Gaussian boundary implies a fundamental limit on temporal consistency: for any non-Gaussian physical system, the representation error of a statistical World Model grows monotonically with time. We prove that this limit is an artifact of the statistical alignment mechanism, not a property of World Models in general. We introduce the Physics-Grounded Symbolic Architecture (PGSA) and prove three results: (1) a PGSA achieves exact linear identifiability for all physical regimes, regardless of the latent distribution; (2) the per-step error of a PGSA is bounded by numerical precision alone; and (3) as a direct consequence, a PGSA maintains temporal consistency for an unbounded number of transitions, a property we term near-infinite temporal consistency. We further prove that statistical World Models cannot achieve this property for any non-Gaussian system, regardless of model capacity or the volume of training data. The algebraic cores of four of the theorems are formalized in Lean 4 with Mathlib4 v4.31.0 (zero sorry placeholders); the Klindt et al. converse is taken as an external premise. The contrast establishes that symbolic grounding in the causal generator of the world's dynamics is the sufficient condition and, in non-Gaussian regimes, the only condition for near-infinite temporal consistency.

Physics-informed and data-driven surrogates are increasingly used to approximate mechanics-governed flow fields, but the target quantities assigned to such models are not always identifiable from the input variables available at prediction time. We introduce an input-schema identifiability certificate for computational surrogates. Starting from a reduced physical model, the certificate decomposes a target field into components that are measurable from geometry, components that require boundary-condition information, and components identifiable only up to a symmetry quotient. This yields a pre-training audit: it predicts which oracle-channel interventions should reduce error, which should fail, and which ambiguity cannot be removed by changing the architecture, loss, optimizer, or sample size. We instantiate the framework for incompressible tubular flow using a Cosserat-rod reduction, where lumen velocity separates into a mesh-measurable tangent direction, a boundary-condition-dependent magnitude, and a signed-orientation ambiguity. Controlled experiments on patient-specific aortic CFD geometries, analytic Womersley flows, and an advection-diffusion transfer problem confirm the predicted pattern: supplying signed direction collapses angular error to the oracle regime, whereas supplying magnitude without orientation leaves the predicted sign ambiguity and yields 16-33 percent per-node sign flips. The results provide a mechanics-based diagnostic for deciding whether a surrogate modelling task is physically identifiable before training, and expose failure modes that aggregate error metrics can hide.

Identification conditions describe the computability of a target query or parameter of interest as a function of the type and amount of information available. In causal identification, this information is often expressed in the form of a causal graph, and data are observed or collected for some subset of variables in the graph. Target queries may be for a single effect alone or for a class of effects in a given model. The derivation of an identification algorithm then defines mathematically the process by which the desired causal effect(s) can be uniquely determined, theoretically, in expectation. Identifiability in expectation, or 'theoretical identifiability,' generally assumes asymptotic properties, infinite data, or other mathematically idealized conditions. In this paper, we explore a fundamental distinction between this theoretical, idealized notion of identifiability and a proposed alternative that is computation-bound. The framework we propose - 'computational identifiability' - is to instead define a finite computational search procedure for an empirical estimator. If this process finds an estimator empirically, within a desired error tolerance, then identifiability is satisfied, conditional on the specified assumptions of the search (i.e., a prior distribution over the parameters) and conditional on the search procedure itself. Through several experiments, we demonstrate how this framework allows us to answer fine-grained, practical identification questions, such as identification with small finite samples, with ambiguous graphical criteria, with mixed observational-interventional data, and across counterfactual data and estimands. Code is available at https://github.com/lbynum/metadentify.

When a neural time-series model reports that one variable modulates another's effect on a target, is the discovered interaction a property of the data or an artifact of model flexibility? We argue that this is fundamentally a question of identifiability, governed by the geometry of the observed input support rather than by the specific neural architecture. We study the problem in a multiplicative-gating extension of neural additive vector autoregression (GNAVAR), in which source contributions are modulated by other lagged variables. We show that representational capacity is not identifiability: dependent inputs induce leakage between edge-specific interaction terms, and low-dimensional support permits distinct interaction decompositions that agree on the observed data while differing elsewhere. We then prove a population identifiability theorem for normalized minimal GNAVAR decompositions under explicit support conditions, including settings with shared modulators. The theory yields a simple practitioner-facing diagnostic: the effective rank of the joint lag-block covariance predicts, before fitting, whether interaction recovery is feasible for a given candidate set. When the candidate set is unknown, a two-seed stability check provides a practical operational test. The same support condition organizes empirical outcomes into the three states predicted by the theory. Our results show that interaction recoverability depends on support geometry, that effective rank provides a practical pre-fit diagnostic, and that instability across independent fits is a characteristic signature of non-identifiable interaction discovery. The identifiability phenomenon, the support condition, and the instability signature are model-agnostic; GNAVAR is the vehicle that makes them provable.

We study component recovery and mixing-matrix estimation from unlabeled finite mixtures whose observable distributions share the same latent components but have unknown mixing weights. The main identifying signal is marginal independence: each component is assumed to be independent on at least one coordinate pair, but no labels, clean component samples, or mixing weights are observed. We first prove a structural result for product components: under linear independence of the univariate marginals, any independent affine combination of the components must coincide with a single component. We then extend this principle to observable mixtures and show that, under full-rank and no-cancellation conditions, marginally independent affine combinations recover the corresponding latent components. When every component is independent on some coordinate pair, all components are identifiable, and the mixing matrix is recoverable under the stated completion conditions. Finally, we propose a Product-Marginal Maximum Mean Discrepancy (PM-MMD) estimator over affine combinations of the observable mixtures and prove uniform convergence and stability under approximate marginal independence. This framework also separates the empirical roles of the assumptions: irreducibility is, in general, not directly testable from the unlabeled mixtures alone, whereas marginal independence yields a candidate-level diagnostic through held-out PM-MMD. Controlled and flow-cytometry experiments show when marginal independence provides a useful recovery signal. In the reported multi-component comparisons, condition-aware representative selection stabilizes PM-MMD and improves recovery relative to clustering, factorization, and pairwise mixture-proportion baselines using the same unlabeled mixtures.

Community-conditioned language model adaptation requires choices about data collection, community definition, and evaluation that are currently made independently in each study, making it hard to compare assumptions or reuse artifacts. We present RedditPersona, a modular framework that standardizes these choices: it collects Reddit posts and comments, profiles active users, partitions them under five grouping strategies (subreddit-based, graph-structural, semantic, hybrid, and interaction-based), trains a parameter-efficient adapter per strategy via QLoRA, and evaluates them under a shared metric suite spanning fluency, fidelity, distributional alignment, and community identifiability. Applied to 112 subreddits in the urban well-being domain (301,429 user profiles, 16M+ comments), we find that adapters' behavioral identifiability tracks each strategy's intrinsic agreement with the subreddit baseline, and that a consistent trade-off between identifiability and distributional similarity to real text holds across all five strategies. The code and configuration files are available at: https://github.com/Ahghaffari/redditpersona.

Temporal systems often exhibit non-stationary behaviour, such as seasonal climate variation or glucose fluctuations in patients with type-1 diabetes. One way to model non-stationarity is through discrete latent regimes, i.e., stationary segments of time. Such systems induce a Markov Switching Model (MSM), a class of Hidden Markov Models with autoregressive dependencies among latent regimes and observed variables. Identifying latent regimes is challenging in the presence of frequent regime switches and nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamics, particularly when there are instantaneous effects between the variables, e.g., due to slow rates of measurements. In this work, we establish the identifiability of both latent regimes and regime-dependent causal structures under temporal regime dependencies, nonlinear lagged and instantaneous effects, and independent noise from the exponential family. Our identifiability theory subsumes non-temporal mixtures of causal models. Furthermore, we introduce FlowMSM, a regime detection framework that can be paired with any stationary causal discovery method to recover regime-dependent causal structures. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and a financial economics dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach to detect latent regimes and discover causal structures from non-stationary time series.

Supervised learning evaluates predictors through their input-output behavior. When a predictor is implemented as a composition $f=c\circ h$, supervised evidence constrains the composite map $f$ but need not determine the representation-head factorization $(h,c)$. This paper formalizes the resulting representation-level identifiability problem: for a class of admissible representation-head pairs, a representation property is identifiable from the induced predictor exactly when it is constant on the fibers of the projection $(h,c)\mapsto c\circ h$, equivalently when it descends to a well-defined property of the predictor. Predictor-preserving augmentation gives a canonical obstruction: auxiliary information can be appended to a representation while the head ignores it, leaving the predictor unchanged but altering properties such as minimality, compression, invariance, equivariance, nuisance information, or semantic accessibility. This construction separates representation identifiability from optimization and finite-sample estimation. Finite-sample diagnostics illustrate, rather than prove, the criterion: exact algebraic witnesses hold the predictor fixed while changing representation diagnostics, and matched-performance Waterbirds models show that different constraints can select different representations at similar supervised performance. The results clarify that representation-level claims require assumptions, objectives, measurements, or inductive biases beyond supervised predictive behavior alone.

Bridging the gap between visual realism and physical understanding is a core challenge for video-based world models. We study the structural identifiability of continuous-time physical laws from raw pixels, focusing on whether an encoder-only pipeline can uniquely recover the parameters of second-order linear ODEs. We prove that a level-set slope-coverage condition ensures the learned latent space is locally affine to the true physical state, enabling exact parameter recovery. Our theory provides the first characterization of minimal data requirements across damping regimes, establishing that underdamped systems are identifiable from a single video clip, whereas other regimes require three diverse trajectories. We further introduce a variance-floor regularizer to stabilize the decoder-free objective and prevent latent collapse. Validated on synthetic and real-world data, our approach demonstrates that interpretable physical constants can be reliably estimated from video without the need for compute-intensive pixel reconstruction, ensuring both physical correctness and transparency. Code is available at https://github.com/wenjiewang3/PhysicsFromVideo.

Causal-discovery algorithms return a directed graph, yet provide no principled means of distinguishing edge directions identified by the data from those assigned without an identifying assumption. Under the standard Markov and faithfulness conditions, the observational distribution identifies only a Markov equivalence class; orientations within that class are not determined by the joint distribution and cannot be recovered from additional samples alone, but require either a functional restriction or an intervention. We introduce a protocol for observational causal discovery on continuous data that attaches to each candidate edge a discrete impossibility certificate: a RESOLVED code records the identifiability theorem under which the direction was committed, while an IMPOSSIBLE code records the failure mode together with the specific question a domain expert must answer to resolve it. The bivariate cascade is extended with five gated identifiability tiers LSNM, IGCI, Stein, MDL, and PEIT that abstain when their precondition test rejects. Two oracle primitives, the meta-hub query and the node-children query, jointly establish an upper bound of $1+K$ expert interactions sufficient to recover any DAG, where $K$ denotes the number of non-leaf vertices. Under an ideal-oracle assumption, the bound is met exactly on the asia, sachs, child, and alarm benchmarks.

We construct a binary mixed-regime process with one deterministic textual regime and one random regime governed by an unobserved latent state. Even an ideal infinite-capacity sequence predictor that exactly recovers the text-only marginal law can become overconfident when the observed prefix is compatible with the wrong latent regime. The resulting entropy difference is not an ordinary optimization error; it is a sufficiency gap caused by marginalization over an unobserved state. We then formalize retrieval, tool use, and external grounding through an auxiliary binary signal with fidelity $γ\in [1/2,1]$. The resulting Bayesian update yields a contextual dominance threshold: a corrective signal reverses the posterior odds induced by the textual history exactly when its fidelity exceeds the text-only posterior weight assigned to the misleading regime. This threshold reduces, but does not generally eliminate, the sufficiency gap; complete closure requires perfect revelation of the relevant latent state or an equivalent verification mechanism. The analysis clarifies why temperature scaling cannot restore missing context, why grounding mechanisms must be both informative and learnably usable by the model, and why autonomous sequence models require structurally decoupled observers or verifiers in high-stakes domains.

A representation that scrambles the true degrees of freedom of the world cannot support reliable planning or compositional generalization. We prove that LeJEPA (alignment plus Gaussian regularization) linearly recovers the world's latent variables from nonlinear observations, a property known as linear identifiability, in a broad class of worlds where latents evolve under stationary, additive-noise transitions. Our main result is that among all such worlds, the Gaussian is the unique latent distribution for which this guarantee holds. The forward direction rests on a spectral decomposition in which each degree of nonlinearity is strictly penalized by alignment, making the linear map the optimum; the converse rules out every non-Gaussian alternative. We further prove an approximate identifiability result where the guarantee degrades gracefully, and show that linear, orthogonal identifiability enables optimal latent-space planning. We validate the theory with experiments ranging from 2D examples to 1024-dimensional latents, including distributional ablations and pixel-based robotic control. Our theory turns an empirically successful recipe into a mathematical guarantee, providing the foundation for building World Models that provably recover the structure of the world.

Single-cell perturbation prediction aims to infer how cells respond to unseen interventions and to achieve out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization, providing a computational route to understanding how perturbations reshape cellular programs over time. Existing machine learning methods have made important progress, but typically capture only one side of the response. Latent causal approaches seek mechanisms that support generalization and interpretation, yet often treat perturbation effects as static outcomes. Temporal models describe how gene expression changes across time, but usually do not explicitly recover the latent causal generative mechanisms driving these changes. In practice, perturbation effects are both latent and dynamical: interventions act through unobserved cellular programs, whose states evolve over time and give rise to observed expression profiles. Motivated by this view, we propose a latent dynamical causal generative model for single-cell perturbation data that jointly captures latent cellular programs, perturbation-conditioned mechanisms, and temporal evolution. We further provide an identifiability analysis showing that, under suitable conditions, the latent causal variables are recoverable up to standard equivalence classes. Guided by this analysis, we develop CITE-VAE, a learning framework for recovering latent cellular programs and their perturbation-driven dynamics from single-cell sequencing data. Experiments on Causal-3DIdent validate the theoretical results and the effectiveness of the proposed method in controlled settings. Additional experiments on real-world CRISPR-based single-cell perturbation data show improved generalization to unseen perturbations compared with state-of-the-art baselines, highlighting the practical robustness of our approach.

We study the geometry of determinantal point processes (DPPs) through the spectral decomposition $L=UΛU^{\top}$. The spectrum $Λ$ governs the cardinality distribution via elementary symmetric polynomials, while the eigenspace orientation $U$ governs the conditional law within each fixed-cardinality stratum. Conditioning on cardinality $k$ yields the $k$-DPP, for which the identifiability structure changes fundamentally: the spectral parameter becomes identifiable only up to a common scale, and the eigenspace rotation parameter is identifiable only through squared minors of the eigenvector matrix. We characterize the identifiability gap precisely, via three explicit invariances (scale, sign similarity, and eigenspace rotation) and a dimension-counting theorem showing the existence of additional continuous non-identifiability whenever $\binom{N}{k}<N(N+1)/2$. In contrast, for the full DPP the non-identifiability comes only from the discrete sign similarity.

Epistemic uncertainty is often viewed as a reducible uncertainty that vanishes with increasing data. This perspective implicitly assumes parameter identifiability and equates epistemic uncertainty with predictive variability. In overparametrized neural networks, however, model parameters are typically non-identifiable due to symmetries and redundant representations. As a consequence, substantial parameter uncertainty can persist even when the underlying function is fully identified. In this work, we analyze epistemic uncertainty through the lens of non-identifiability and characterize both discrete and continuous sources of residual uncertainty. Focusing on one-hidden-layer ReLU networks, we thoroughly analyze the resulting posterior structure and validate our theoretical insights through empirical studies.

Prediction models trained under the source distribution do not generalize well to a different target distribution. A valid inference about an unseen data distribution must be anchored by the invariance of certain causal mechanisms that generate the source and target data, however, these structural invariances are non-identifiable from the source data alone. Under mild causal assumptions about the data, we show that the optimal prediction in the target is in fact partially identifiable by the source distribution. The result rests on a simple observation: In any domain, the optimal prediction can be factorized into what we call a pair of abduction and deduction maps, where the abduction map makes inference about some unobserved variables (possibly confounders) from the observed variables and the deduction map predicts the label using both the observed and inferred quantities. Access to large source data pins down the optimal prediction, thus constrains the valid abduction-deduction ensembles that produce it -- a non-identifiability that we call the abduction-deduction entanglement. To leverage this, we parameterize the constrained family using what we call a representation transplant, that is a specific linear transformation in the representation space that manipulates the abduction content of the representation while retaining the deduction component. Invariance of the causal mechanism generating the label implies existence of an invariant deduction map between source and target. Thus, we can search the space of plausible target distributions via a parametric transplant. We use this scheme in a learner-adversary game that, under an idealistic optimization, provably terminates with the learner having the minimax-optimal target prediction. Evaluations verify the theory, showing that the method is competitive in DG benchmarks.

We establish four structural results for feature learning in wide two-layer neural networks under the Maximal Update Parametrization ($μ$P). First, we prove global existence and uniqueness of the mean-field limit of noisy gradient descent under $μ$P, identifying the maximal admissible weight $w^*$ on the moment sequence of the initialization as the reciprocal parameter-moment-growth boundary, and hence the largest weighted moment class propagated by the flow. The finite-particle approximation has uniform-in-time squared-Wasserstein rate $O(N^{-1})$. Second, we characterize identifiability of the mean-field limit: two admissible parameter measures induce the same network function in $L^2$ exactly when their active components agree modulo the finite-rank realization symmetry of the architecture. The orbit depth $D^*_{\mathrm{orb}}$ is separated from the moment-variety depth $D^*_{\mathrm{var}}$. Third, under the Barron-Hermite target condition the active support of the long-time limit measure admits a sparse-dictionary decomposition: it is supported on at most $S^*$ atoms modulo finite-rank realization symmetry, with $S^*$ bounded by an explicit coefficient-threshold number. Fourth, we derive the total feature-learning-error decomposition into statistical, optimization, propagation-of-chaos, and sparse-residual components, with a target-dependent Hermite/Barron tail replacing any initialization-only residual. The four results are tied together by an architectural identity: the triple $(w^*, D^*_{\mathrm{orb}}, S^*)$ -- the maximal admissible weight, the orbit identifiability depth, and the sparse-dictionary depth at which the target is realizable -- is the natural learning cell of the architecture-data pair $(σ, ρ)$. The proofs are self-contained except for standard results from $μ$P and mean-field Langevin theory.

Language models trained on observed sequences are often described as learning the conditional distribution of the next token given previous tokens. This description is only conditionally correct. A model trained on realized token trajectories does not observe full conditional laws; it receives sampled continuations. Moreover, real language generation is conditioned not only on previous words but also on non-textual circumstances: facts, events, intentions, goals, beliefs, social context, and task-specific constraints. This paper distinguishes three objects that are often conflated: the full conditional language process conditioned on latent circumstances, the marginal text-only process obtained by integrating those circumstances out, and the model-induced distribution learned from finite observed corpora. The paper argues that interpreting model training as estimating the marginal text-only law requires strong assumptions of stationarity, representativeness, and ergodicity, assumptions that are standard in statistical estimation but problematic when applied to heterogeneous language corpora. Even if these assumptions hold, the marginal text-only law is useful only when the observed prefix is an approximately sufficient statistic for the latent circumstances relevant to continuation. In information-theoretic terms, usefulness requires that the residual conditional mutual information between the next token and the omitted circumstances, given the observed text, be small. The paper then extends this argument to heterogeneous training corpora. Finally, the paper interprets Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and tool use as conditional sufficiency devices.

Conversation logs from AI platforms are increasingly used to measure occupational exposure to artificial intelligence, but the users observed in these logs are not the workforce. We show that platform-derived exposure scores combine task-level AI applicability with the occupational composition of the platform's user base. Holding the empirical design fixed, changing only the platform input changes the post-ChatGPT employment coefficient by a factor of 1.9, and consumer and enterprise channels within the same vendor disagree in sign. We formalize the resulting non-classical measurement error, decompose it into between- and within-occupation selection, and construct workforce-reweighted partial-identification bounds. Reweighting to Bureau of Labor Statistics employment shares attenuates estimates by 42 to 93 percent. The bias captures augmentation among observed users more directly than substitution in the workforce.

High-fidelity street scene reconstruction is pivotal for end-to-end autonomous driving simulation, where novel-view synthesis (NVS) and time-varying information modeling are two fundamental capabilities to facilitate closed-loop training. However, existing 3DGS methods and their 4D extensions fail to simultaneously achieve both. To bridge this gap, we establish an information-geometric diagnostic framework, revealing that this limitation stems from a credit assignment dilemma between spatial and temporal parameters. Specifically, the deterministic coupling between viewpoint and time in single-source observation creates a low-rank structure that induces massive null-space ambiguity between static view-dependent and dynamic time-varying components. Temporal information overshadows spatial cues, causing the estimation variance of spatial parameters to diverge. To address this issue, we propose Orthogonal Projected Gradient (OPG), a hierarchical training method designed to restore spatial identifiability. OPG prioritizes the integrity of spatial representations by securing them in an initial stage, then restricts temporal updates to the spatial null space, enabling proactive credit assignment. While OPG isolates temporal updates algebraically, Temporal Regularization Strategy is proposed to further refine the temporal solution space by imposing a smoothness constraint based on the physical prior of consistent appearance evolution, ensuring that the reconstructed scene remains physically consistent in closed-loop simulation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method not only maintains stable NVS capabilities but also demonstrates superior performance in traditional observation-reproducing metrics, which indirectly reflect the capability of modeling temporal dynamics.

Causal representation learning (CRL) seeks to uncover meaningful latent variables and their corresponding causal structure from high-dimensional observational data. Although its significance, CRL identifiability remains a crucial property, as it ensures the recovery of the mechanisms behind the data generation process, and hence the interpretability and robustness of the representation. Proving identifiability in CRL is intrinsically difficult, and we address in this work an even more challenging setting: multimodality. We consider multimodal observed data with a latent partially shared structure. Each modality is generated, through non linear mixing functions, from a specific subset of causal latent variables. Under flexible assumptions and without imposing any parametric distribution on the latent variables, we establish component-wise identifiability guarantees for the causal latent representation. Our identifiability results, furthermore, apply to the undercomplete scenario where we have, for each modality, more observed than latent variables. To instantiate our theoretical analysis, we introduce a Wasserstein-based module to recover the partially shared latent structure. Due to its differentiability, the latter can be easily integrated into all types of architecture, only requiring minimal changes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and realistic datasets validate the superiority of our approach over SOTA methods.

This paper develops a feedback-based method to preserve the topology privacy of consensus protocols in network systems. The key idea is to intentionally violate topology identifiability conditions, thereby preventing unique or accurate recovery of the true topology from available observations, while preserving the intended consensus behavior. This problem is challenging because the feedback magnitude directly reflects the privacy level of edges, while it is strongly coupled with the consensus convergence and constrained by local communications at each node. To begin with, we derive the feedback conditions of both partial and full observation cases, where the topology unsolvability from observation data is characterized in the former, and the solution space that enforces topology inaccuracy from data is constructed in the latter. Then, we propose a novel distributed topology modification design under limited privacy budgets, and establish the performance guarantees through a controllable tradeoff between the consensus deviation and the topology privacy. Finally, we develop a low-complexity heuristic algorithm to achieve optimal privacy preservation on existing edges. Comparative simulations validate the effectiveness and outperformance of the proposed preservation design.