Mean Squared Error

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides high-frequency measurements of glucose dynamics and enables short-term glucose forecasting for diabetes management. Although time-series foundation models have shown strong general forecasting ability, their effectiveness for CGM prediction and the added value of multimodal dietary context remain unclear. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study using eight public CGM datasets spanning Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, and non-diabetes populations. Under a unified protocol across multiple context lengths and prediction horizons, zero-shot foundation models did not consistently outperform strong task-specific baselines such as Elastic Net and PatchTST. In contrast, lightweight fine-tuning substantially improved forecasting performance. For example, fine-tuned Chronos-Bolt reduced RMSE by 6.5%-18.4% in the T1D cohort and by 8.6%-18.2% in the non-diabetes/T2D cohort, with comparable improvements in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution test settings. We further evaluate multimodal dietary context using CGMacros, which provides temporally aligned CGM signals, food images, and macronutrient records. A residual-based fusion framework reduced overall RMSE by approximately 3% and postprandial RMSE by approximately 15% relative to the CGM-only baseline. Moreover, Chronos-based CGM representations were more strongly correlated with observed postprandial glucose increments than representations from LSTM and CatBoost, even after those models incorporated additional dietary modalities, suggesting that pretrained temporal representations better preserve meal-induced excursion patterns. These findings show that foundation models require CGM-specific adaptation for reliable forecasting and that dietary context provides clinically meaningful signals beyond CGM alone, especially during postprandial periods.

Rapid evaluation of many simultaneous road-link disruptions requires a practical compromise between exact spectral recomputation and local approximation. We estimate relative algebraic-connectivity loss after multi-edge deletion using graph neural networks (GNNs) that learn a bounded correction to a first-order Fiedler sensitivity. The study considers independent, spatially clustered, and edge-betweenness-targeted failures, with graph-disjoint synthetic splits and zero-shot transfer to 13 OpenStreetMap (OSM) areas in six countries. GCN, GraphSAGE, and edge-aware MPNN backbones are compared with analytical baselines. In expanded OSM tests, residual GCN improves spatial-failure MAE by 0.0391 (95% hierarchical interval 0.0151-0.0662), while residual GraphSAGE improves targeted-failure MAE by 0.0257 (0.0095-0.0446). Second-order perturbation improves first-order MAE by only 0.0028-0.0053. Correction slopes decrease under targeted transfer, indicating residual shrinkage around systematic prior error. Leave-one-country-out OSM-to-OSM transfer is mixed: residual GCN improves targeted-failure MAE by 0.0622 (0.0169-0.1153) but worsens the spatial point estimate. Sparse scaling extends to 20,000 nodes and separates one-time spectral setup from amortized screening cost. These results characterize the spectral residual as a useful but domain-sensitive inductive bias for structural connectivity screening. Code, cached networks, and reproducibility artifacts are archived at doi:10.5281/zenodo.22307723.

A vehicle seeking a hidden target through a range-bearing relay of unknown position and yaw must decide, online, whether its own motion has already made the relay calibration trustworthy, and what to do when it has not. Two distinct vehicle-relative observations are known to remove the calibration gauge and make the target's relay-local packet globally actionable (arXiv:2608.09464), but that statement is static: it classifies a stored window only after the fact. This paper supplies the closed-loop layer: we show that the trajectory-spread margin $S_v$ that governs identifiability is simultaneously a finite-noise seed-accuracy bound, a local-vector variance decomposition, and a circle-geometry excitation budget, and we use it to supervise an excitation-reset controller. An excitation-supervised algorithm retriggers exploratory motion whenever the spread certificate is insufficient, projecting the target-seeking input away from the excitation's push, and otherwise proceeds to unrestricted target seeking. Under explicit sampling assumptions the supervision rule provably acquires any required excitation in finite time; in the noiseless local regime with positive excitation decay, estimator convergence yields target-seeking convergence after certification; and the threshold is selected from a desired calibration-accuracy level rather than chosen heuristically. Closed-loop simulation, paired Monte Carlo comparisons, a spread-threshold ablation, and a ROS 2/Gazebo software-in-the-loop experiment with sensing delay validate the approach. A decay-rate sweep shows that supervision matters when a fixed schedule's decay outruns the unknown time-to-adequate-excitation: over 100 paired trials the fixed baseline's yaw RMSE rises from 0.010 to 0.065 rad and success falls to 56%, while target-tracking error remains insensitive; supervision keeps yaw RMSE between 0.0095 and 0.0191 rad with 100% success.

Radiology foundation models learn transferable representations that can be adapted to new tasks by training only small layers on top of a frozen encoder. Dense prediction tasks such as 3D segmentation are, however, underrepresented in their evaluation, and, with the encoder kept frozen, pre-trained models still fall short of nnU-Net, the state-of-the-art reference trained from scratch. To close this gap we extend convolutional MAE pre-training with a robust reconstruction objective, a feature regularizer, and a local-global similarity objective. Using this method, we propose Curia-MAE, a multi-modal, multi-anatomy MAE model pre-trained on 300,000 CT and MRI images covering a large number of anatomical sites. On eight anatomy- and lesion-focused segmentation benchmarks, Curia-MAE improves frozen-encoder performance over a strong MAE baseline, while remaining competitive under full finetuning and superior on lesion tasks, where labeled data is scarce. These results indicate that a single frozen encoder can be reused across diverse segmentation tasks, reducing the cost of adapting and deploying such models in clinical workflows. Curia-MAE pre-trained model weights are made publicly available at https://huggingface.co/raidium/Curia-MAE.

Efficient and perceptually meaningful quality assessment is a fundamental requirement for image and video processing, compression, and streaming systems. This article shows that, in the context of Discrete Cosine Transform ( DCT)-based compressed images, Structural Similarity Index ( SSIM ) can be approximated from global Peak Signal to Noise Ratio (PSNR) or Mean Square Error ( MSE) using local statistics derived only from the reference image. While prior work assumes access to local MSE, we propose two approaches to approximate local MSE by redistributing the global MSE using variance or standard-deviation-based weighting. Experiments on the Kodak and Xiph Subset1 datasets across a range of JPEG quality levels demonstrate that both approaches provide accurate and robust SSIM approximations, substantially outperforming the global MSE baseline. The proposed framework is designed to extend naturally to video, where reference-derived statistics can be amortized across multiple encodes of the same content.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) for large language models typically trains its critic by mean-squared-error (MSE) regression on scalar value targets. Although scalar MSE is statistically valid for estimating the conditional expected return, sparse binary rewards in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) make critic optimization and calibration especially consequential: small value errors directly distort the scalar advantages used by PPO. We study whether a classification-based training objective can improve this critic signal. HL-Gauss PPO replaces the scalar MSE head with a categorical predictor over a discretized value support, trained by cross-entropy against smoothed HL-Gauss targets. Its output is decoded to a scalar expectation for standard GAE and PPO; the actor update is therefore unchanged and is not distributional. Across mathematical reasoning, tool-augmented math, and Search-R1, and on both Qwen2.5 and Qwen3 backbones, HL-Gauss PPO consistently improves over strong PPO and DAPO baselines. Controls with one-hot, two-hot, and Bernoulli two-bin critics show that neither a larger output head nor binary classification alone explains the gains. On a common collection of reasoning prefixes, HL-Gauss improves Brier score and calibration error and yields more symmetric, lower-variance advantages. These results position categorical value learning as an effective optimization surrogate for PPO critics in RLVR.

Local-stochastic volatility (LSV) combines vanilla marginals with richer smile dynamics, but calibration requires a slow, noisy and sequential McKean--Vlasov fixed point. We learn a projection-consistent operator for the calibration triple. Given finite quotes and a stochastic-volatility (SV) backbone, it jointly returns an implied-volatility surface subject to static-arbitrage constraints, its Dupire local volatility, LSV leverage and the conditional moment required by the projection identity. Starting from option-price marginals, we derive a division-free Dupire residual in log-implied-variance coordinates and a quotient Fokker--Planck equation after Gyöngy projection. Deep Operator Network (DeepONet) and Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) implementations enforce quote fit, static-arbitrage, Dupire and projection constraints. For the witness-augmented residual system, we prove conditional identification and empirical consistency under LSV existence and inverse residual stability. In controlled synthetic tests, forward-start and cliquet errors differ from a particle method by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, while calibration latency falls from 98.5 to 0.6 ms. Compared with the tested baselines, local-volatility root-mean-square error (RMSE) falls by 36% and leverage RMSE by 7-16%. These results support amortizing the LSV fixed point: the expensive solve moves offline, while online calibration reduces to a single projection-consistent operator evaluation.

In bearing vibration datasets, most samples receive predicted fault probabilities close to 0 or 1, while samples with intermediate (gray-zone) probabilities are rare. Such borderline samples are important because they reflect conditions in which maintenance decisions may require additional inspection or a conservative response and are useful for studying decision boundaries. To address this scarcity, this paper proposes and compares two approaches that generate vibration signals whose predicted fault probability matches a target probability of 0.25, 0.50, or 0.75. We use the average output of a heterogeneous ensemble classifier with different architectures and random initializations as a fixed, gradient-accessible probability oracle. The first, training-based approach, Probability-Regularized Generative Adversarial Network (PR-GAN), extends Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) and edits a real signal through a residual generator while pushing the classifier output toward the target probability. The second is a training-free, per-sample Wachter-style counterfactual (CF) procedure that directly optimizes each input signal to reach the target probability while remaining close to the source signal. We evaluate both methods on the Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) and Paderborn bearing datasets using mean absolute target-probability error, time-domain total variation, and frequency-domain log power spectral density (log-PSD) differences. Across all settings, CF reaches the target with a mean absolute probability error of 0.005-0.008 and a within-tolerance success rate of 1.000 on retained samples, whereas PR-GAN's mean error is 0.046-0.059 with success rates between 0.501 and 0.680. CF therefore steers the probability more reliably and requires smaller average L1 changes, whereas PR-GAN has a lower reported runtime in most settings.

While Root Mean Square Normalization has become the de facto standard for accelerating modern sequence models, its reliance on the quadratic accumulation of independent scalars ($\sum x^2$) inherently triggers outlier-induced numerical instability, gradient starvation, and anisotropic phase distortion. We introduce Mean Root Square Normalization (MRSNorm). By structurally pairing channels into 2D phasors, MRSNorm mathematically inverts the traditional scaling paradigm: it computes the localized $L_2$ magnitudes (Root Square) before aggregating them via a global $L_1$ average (Mean). This operational inversion strictly constrains activations to a phasor manifold, preserving conformal invariance. By sharing a single affine weight across phasor components, MRSNorm halves the total number of learnable parameters, proving that unconstrained spatial scaling in standard norms is a harmful redundancy. We analytically demonstrate that this geometric constraint yields a built-in, trigonometric gradient clipper governed by the Pythagorean identity, unconditionally equalizing the local gradient norm to ensure Gradient Homogeneity. Empirical evaluations on a ResNet with CIFAR-100 show that despite halved parameters, MRSNorm provides critical structural stability under rigorous stress tests. Under extreme hyperparameter settings where standard normalizations suffer from gradient divergence, MRSNorm successfully prevents numerical explosion and secures stable optimization trajectories. Our findings propose a fundamental paradigm shift toward phasor-based deep representation learning. The implementation of MRSNorm is available at Appendix C.

Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) compress model activations into sparse codes, but equal reconstruction error and sparsity can preserve different linearly decodable signals. We formalize this ambiguity as a matrix-valued distortion between optimal ridge-prediction operators and train decoder-preserving SAEs by combining this distortion with reconstruction loss. In a rank relaxation, an isotropic task prior saturates per-mode omission costs without changing PCA's ordering, whereas a structured prior can change which modes are retained. A controlled sparse experiment shows that a declared prior protects held-out combinations from its task subspace. On GPT-2 small block 8, DPSAE reduces held-out decoder distortion by 10.6--11.4% across three paired runs while matching reconstruction NMSE. The same checkpoints pass an average natural-text output-KL noninferiority test, but one matched Pythia pair shows no improvement in probes restricted to a few sparse features. These results show that reconstruction quality does not determine which refitted linear readouts survive sparse compression, and that readout preservation is distinct from learning cleaner benchmark concepts or preserving every frozen-model behavior.

Deep remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) attains sub-bpm heart-rate error on frontal, stationary faces yet degrades sharply under head pose: on MMPD, the state-of-the-art FactorizePhys backbone's MAE grows $1.60\times$ from frontal ($|\text{yaw}|{<}15^\circ$) to large-yaw ($|\text{yaw}|{\geq}45^\circ$) frames. We argue that pose is a \emph{coordinate-structural} nuisance rather than a data-augmentation problem: in image coordinates the same pixel maps to different anatomy at different poses, blocking three priors otherwise natural for rPPG, namely the dichromatic reflection model, pulse-phase invariance across skin regions, and the POS/CHROM chromaticity projection, each of which presumes a stable anatomy-to-pixel mapping. We introduce \textbf{CanonicalPhys}, which prepends a differentiable four-point homography that fixes four facial anchors at canonical positions; in this canonical frame the three priors become expressible as a per-pixel Lambertian weight, a cross-ROI temporal consistency loss, and knowledge distillation from windowed POS, none of which adds trainable parameters over the backbone. At an identical parameter count, CanonicalPhys reduces MMPD's frontal-to-large-yaw MAE degradation from $1.60\times$ to $1.33\times$ and flattens the mild-yaw bin from $1.32\times$ to $1.07\times$ (across CanonicalPhys variants), with matched cross-dataset MAE reductions of up to $32\%$ on pose-rich targets. Code: https://github.com/infraface/CanonicalPhys

The Hessian matrix is an important quantity of interest when it comes to studying the loss landscape and optimization dynamics in deep learning, as well as designing measures of generalization, second-order learning algorithms, etc. Prior works have focused on empirical results or pursued a theoretical treatment under overly simplified settings. In this work, we derive the eigenvalues of the Hessian of linear networks with arbitrary widths and depths, and datasets with an arbitrary number of samples, features, and labels. Importantly, for classification tasks with MSE loss, we identify that the sharpness of the solution is directly related to the maximum proportion of samples belonging to any class. We empirically validate our predictions and systematically analyze the effects of shedding the impractical assumptions one at a time, as well as incorporating nonlinearities. We observe that our predictions are considerably robust in most cases, allowing us to extend our conclusions to more practical learning setups.

We present Clean2FX, a study and demo of label-conditioned clean-to-effect transformation for electric guitar audio. Given a clean guitar input and a target effect label, the task is to synthesize the corresponding effected signal while preserving the musical content. Training and evaluation pairs are constructed from EGFxSet real, single tone recordings by assembling matched clean/effected chords, melodies, and mixed timelines. This allows for controlled comparison across effects. We evaluate four neural approaches under a common spectrogram-based transformation setting: two variational autoencoders and two U-Net models that differ in whether they operate on linear or log-magnitude representations. Performance is measured using linear-magnitude spectrogram MSE and Fréchet Audio Distance. The U-Net models outperform the variational autoencoder variants. Per-effect results show that distortion effects are most readily improved, whereas delay and reverb effects exhibit weaker FAD gains despite substantial spectral-error reductions. A conditioning-sensitivity diagnostic provides evidence that the best model responds to target labels rather than collapsing to a single transformation. Our demo website compares two models applied on real-world guitar performances outside training and validation data, providing audio and spectrogram examples of the practical clean-to-effect behavior.

We investigate the problem of the robustness of a trained neural network to the perturbation of its input values. More specifically, we examine the interplay between the accuracy of the network, as measured by the mean squared error, and robustness. Accordingly, we present a robustness measure, which, with high probability, suggests an upper bound on the mean squared error of the network, with respect to an input data set, for a given perturbation of the input values of the network. The measure we propose is both simple and efficient to compute, treating the neural network as a black box. We provide experimental results on several real-world data sets showing the efficacy of the proposed method. We also introduce the concept of robustness curves, which allows us to further analyse robustness within and between data sets.

Real-world evaluation is the gold standard for robot policies because it tests them against the physical conditions and deployment challenges they are ultimately designed to handle. However, real-world evaluation is also the bottleneck for iterating on robot policies: it is costly, difficult to reproduce, and often too sparse to reliably compare nearby model variants. A straightforward proxy for performance is validation loss on expert demonstrations, but this proxy is often poorly correlated with real-world performance. In this paper, we introduce Critical Interval MSE (CI-MSE), an intuitively simple yet effective offline validation metric. CI-MSE restricts error computation to task-critical segments and pairs it with simple action-alignment procedures that better match rollout-time behavior. Across simulation and real-world experiments, CI-MSE yields a stronger correlation between validation error and rollout performance than raw MSE. Across a wide range of policy checkpoints, CI-MSE achieves a Spearman's rank correlation of $-0.87$, much closer to the ideal value of $-1$ than raw MSE's $-0.61$, demonstrating a significant improvement. We show through sensitivity analysis that our metric is robust to a wide range of hyperparameters. We further study the effectiveness of CI-MSE under evaluation distribution shifts and suggest design boundaries when using this metric. In summary, this paper provides a simple and reliable offline validation tool for accelerating policy iteration. Project webpage: https://ci-mse.github.io/

Diffusion posterior samplers for accelerated MRI can reconstruct accurately yet still disagree on the acquired k-space across samples, placing posterior variability on coefficients the scanner has already measured. We identify this measured-subspace leakage as a physical-admissibility failure. Under a hard-constraint model it violates the measurement constraint and inflates the reported uncertainty with disagreement about coefficients the scanner has already determined. To quantify this leakage, we introduce complementary measured- and unmeasured-subspace k-space dispersion metrics (MSD/USD). We then present Measured-Subspace Consistency (MSC), a training-free terminal correction that wraps any compatible image-space posterior sampler with a standard multi-coil consistency lock. The ideal lock follows classical range/null-space data consistency. Our contribution is to repurpose it as a black-box posterior audit and correction rather than a new reconstructor or learned sampler. Theoretically, we prove that the ideal transform confines pairwise sample differences to the MRI null space and bound the residual cross-subspace coupling left by practical sensitivity-weighted implementations. Across six base samplers and two MRI anatomies, including out-of-distribution transfer where a knee prior reconstructs brain, MSC substantially reduces measured-subspace dispersion for Soft samplers (a median 16.5x reduction for DPS across five brain contrasts, up to ~29x), while preserving unmeasured-subspace diversity and acting as a near-identity map for Consistent ones. Furthermore, MSC maintains or modestly improves PSNR/SSIM, with no retraining, retuning, or significant computational overhead.

Existing low-bit KV-cache quantizers often treat each cached key as a flat vector. Under RoPE, however, a key's contribution to a future attention logit decomposes into a position-dependent sum over two-dimensional frequency blocks. This makes key-cache quantization a block-wise bit-allocation problem: high-energy RoPE blocks are more sensitive to quantization error and should receive more bits. We introduce Block-GTQ, a RoPE-aware bit allocator for key-cache quantization built on TurboQuant-MSE(TQ-MSE). For each layer and KV head, Block-GTQ computes a label-free energy score for each RoPE block and greedily allocates integer bit widths by marginal gain. Under matched K/V bit budgets, Block-GTQ better preserves RoPE query-key logits on a ten-model diagnostic panel, cutting per-layer MAE by 32-80% at 2 and 3 b/dim K-only quantization and winning all 367/367 layer comparisons against uniform TQ-MSE. These fidelity gains translate to stronger downstream long-context retrieval, understanding, and reasoning. At K2V2 on Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct, Block-GTQ raises the six-task NIAH average from 70.6 to 97.4, and the LongBench-EN average from 36.87 to 53.31. On AIME 2024/2025 with DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B, without an fp16 recent-key buffer, Block-GTQ at K3V2 scores 51.7/37.5, close to fp16's 54.2/37.9, whereas uniform TQ-MSE collapses to 0.0/0.0. We further implement a packed-cache serving path. On a single H800 GPU with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct, packed K3V3 achieves 3.24x KV-cache compression with fp16-comparable quality, runs 1.34x faster than fp16 FlashAttention2 at 128K context, reduces peak memory from 56.31 GB to 19.85 GB, and remains feasible at 256K and 512K where fp16 OOMs. Code is available at https://github.com/JIA-Lab-research/blockgtq.

Most real-world datasets used for training supervised learning models are contaminated with noisy data and outliers leading to large prediction errors. This paper proposes a new approach for achieving robustness where the learning rate is modulated by a factor that is sensitive to outliers. In this approach a reduction of the learning rate is shown to be achieved by using alternate loss functions that are infinitely differentiable, strictly convex or quasiconvex and more closely approximate the absolute error than Huber and log-cosh losses. A comparison of the performance of regression models trained with different loss functions on a wide variety of benchmarks and datasets is presented to demonstrate the superior performance of the Square Root Loss (SRL) and Smooth Mean Absolute Error (SMAE) losses proposed in this paper. Two new robust linear regression models are presented. Highly vectorized robust parameter update formulae that take advantage of modern GPUs for both stochastic and batch gradient descent are presented.

Post-training quantization (PTQ) is one of the most practical ways to reduce the serving cost of Large Language Models (LLMs), but activation quantization remains difficult because outlier-dominated channels lead to large quantization errors. This paper investigates whether part of this degradation is caused by over-migration in scaling-based equivalent transformations. We introduce a quantile-robust scaling policy for SmoothRot-style transforms by replacing max-based activation statistics with high quantiles, and we complement it with constrained gradient-based optimization of channel scales. On LLaMA-3.2-1B under W4A4 quantization, quantile-only policy search improves selected-layer error by 11.1% over the SmoothRot baseline, joint (alpha, q) search improves it by 12%, and training reaches 18.5%. Replaying the best selected-layer policy on all decoder-block down-projection layers reduces the corresponding full-layer mean error from 97.51 to 78.08 (19.9%). The results show that robust migration control and lightweight scale learning provide consistent gains over max-based fixed policies while preserving the equivalent-transform framework.

Can a visually plausible food mesh be trusted to estimate the volume of consumed food? \method investigates this question using selected paired before- and after-consumption states from the MetaFood CVPR 2026 Continuous 3D Reconstruction While Eating Challenge. The submitted workflow follows a curated reconstruction protocol: SAM3 segments the food and plate regions; Hunyuan3D/SAM3D generates a dimensionless food mesh; the plate diameter provides the metric scale; the plate geometry is removed in Blender; and the remaining mesh is hole-filled, made watertight, and integrated to estimate volume. MoGe-2 is used only as an auxiliary cue for initial dish-diameter estimation when direct plate measurement is uncertain; it is not the primary scale source for the reported challenge result. \method ranks first, with an average Chamfer distance of 8.31 across 34 meshes using rigid ICP without scale correction. On 17 before- and after-pairs, it achieves 33.87% state-level volume MAPE and zero monotonicity violations, while consumed-volume MAPE remains 53.74%. The results show that surface reconstruction, metric scale, controlled mesh cleanup, watertight volume integration, and physical depletion consistency should be evaluated separately for dietary assessment. Source code and evaluation scripts will be available at \href{https://github.com/GCVCG/PerBite-CVPR-MetaFood-2026}{github.com/GCVCG/PerBite-CVPR-MetaFood-2026}.

Deep-learning precipitation nowcasting models are often optimized using pointwise losses such as mean squared error or mean absolute error, which can lead to overly smooth forecasts and poor representation of heavy rainfall. This study investigates whether the predictive performance of an established deterministic nowcasting architecture can be improved by reformulating training as a multi-quantile regression problem. Using SmaAt-UNet as a core model, we compare MSE, MAE, and multi-quantile pinball-loss training on radar precipitation nowcasting over the Netherlands. The results show that multi-quantile training improves the central deterministic forecast, decreasing test-set MSE by 8.6% compared to a model trained using MSE, while also producing upper-quantile outputs that are useful for risk-sensitive prediction of heavy precipitation. These findings suggest that quantile regression provides a simple alternative to standard pointwise losses without requiring a new architecture or generative sampling procedure. The implementation of our models and training setup is available on \href{https://github.com/gijsvn/Multi-Quantile-Precipitation-Nowcasting}{GitHub}.

We study the mean-squared error of $k$-fold cross-validation as a risk estimator, with particular emphasis on how its accuracy depends on the number of folds $k$. Despite the widespread use of cross-validation, principled guidance for choosing $k$ is largely absent, mainly due to the complex dependence between fold-wise error estimates. To obtain sharp and interpretable results, we focus on the majority algorithm in binary classification, a minimal yet nontrivial empirical risk minimization procedure. We provide a fine-grained analysis of its cross-validation behavior, showing that even this simple algorithm exhibits subtle and delicate phenomena for which existing theory provides loose and even vacuous bounds. Leveraging this analysis, we introduce a minimax framework for cross-validation risk estimation and prove that no empirical risk minimization algorithm can achieve an $O(1/n)$ minimax mean-squared error when the number of folds grows with the number of samples $n$; instead, a lower bound of order $Ω(\sqrt{k}/n)$ is unavoidable. Our results reveal fundamental limitations of cross-validation as a data-reuse strategy, clarify gaps and inaccuracies in prior theoretical work, and position the majority algorithm as a natural benchmark that any tight analysis of cross-validation should be able to explain.

Evaluation in scientific reconstruction is dominated by pointwise metrics - RMSE, MAE, per-event resolution - under the implicit assumption that lower error means better reconstruction. We show that this assumption fails structurally for inverse problems with multimodal posteriors. By the law of total variance, point estimators trained to minimize MSE or MAE produce a marginal spectrum strictly narrower than the truth whenever the posterior has nonzero width. The resulting bias is independent of architecture, training, and dataset size, and it compresses precisely the spectral features - tails, modes, shapes - that downstream scientific measurements rely on. We propose a three-part evaluation protocol where each step targets a failure mode the others miss: per-event distributional accuracy via CRPS, population-level marginal accuracy via a spectrum-fidelity diagnostic, and uncertainty trustworthiness via coverage-based calibration. On a synthetic benchmark with an analytic posterior and on a realistic many-to-one inverse problem from particle physics, model rankings reverse between pointwise and distributional metrics, and calibration further separates architectures indistinguishable under CRPS. The evaluation protocol, not the model, determines the scientific conclusion.

Uniform sampling on implicitly defined manifolds is a core primitive in motion planning, constrained simulation, and probabilistic machine learning. MASEM addresses this problem by entropy-maximizing resampling, but its resampling weights depend on a local k-nearest-neighbour density estimate whose errors can be amplified by aggressive resampling temperatures. We ask whether a polynomial-maximization moment estimator can replace the plug-in density rule without changing the surrounding MASEM architecture. The proposed PMM-MASEM module computes shell spacings from nested k-nearest-neighbour radii, estimates their standardized cumulants, and uses a gated PMM2/PMM3 estimator only when the spacing distribution departs from the flat Exp(1) regime; otherwise it falls back to the plug-in/MLE rule. This fallback is essential: on a flat homogeneous manifold the plug-in estimator is already the MLE, so PMM should not outperform it. A local Known-DGP Monte Carlo experiment confirms this gate: the selector returns MLE on flat Exp(1) spacings and reduces density MSE by 22--36% on asymmetric gamma and boundary-spacing regimes. The evidence is not uniformly positive: PMM3 worsens a platykurtic uniform spacing law, and a lightweight resampling-proxy experiment improves seven-lobes coverage but degrades the sine and swiss-roll proxies. The current evidence therefore supports an applicability-boundary result rather than a general MASEM improvement claim.

Counting objects in an image is a task applicable across many domains. For instance, crowd counting, inventory counting, and cell counting have been the focus of recent research. The major challenges in estimating the count of objects include overlapping objects, object scale issues, occlusions, and varying lighting conditions. In this report, we explore the problem of counting machine washer parts. Our technique is an extension of FamNet with an additional loss component, trained on the given dataset. We compare to three baseline methods: a traditional image processing pipeline, instance segmentation, and density map estimation. We evaluate the performance of these algorithms by computing the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) between the true object counts and the model outputs. Our approach achieves a performance of 1.96 MAE.

Numerous studies have shown that the machine-learning picker PhaseNet produces accurate P and S picks on local earthquake signals, but its performance can degrade sharply on teleseismic signals. To address this limitation, we present a reproducible MsPASS workflow that (i) enables scalable data preparation and management for large seismic archives and (ii) supports standardized PhaseNet training and inference. We assembled a control dataset of 1.6 million waveforms linked to teleseismic P-wave picks made by analysts at the USArray Array Network Facility (ANF). The control dataset confirms that the PhaseNet model trained on regional signals performs poorly on these data. We then trained PhaseNet from scratch on the training split of the ANF control dataset and evaluated it on a non-overlapping held-out test split, increasing P-pick recall by 741.5% and yielding 683.9% more picks within a 0.1s residual window. We also evaluated PhaseNet across different model sizes on both CPUs and GPUs. Increasing the model size by about 120 times improved precision and recall by 15.6% and 23.2%, respectively. However, the scaled model reduced inference throughput by 87.2% on an NVIDIA A100 GPU and by 97.3% on a 128-core high-performance CPU node. These results indicate that scaling PhaseNet is more practical on GPUs than on CPUs, and that simply enlarging the model is not an efficient way to achieve large accuracy gains.

Minimizing the Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a key objective in machine learning and is commonly used for imputing missing values. While this approach provides accurate point estimates, it introduces systematic biases in downstream analyses. These biases affect key parameters such as variance, prevalence, correlation, slope, and explained variance. The root cause is that imputed values optimized for MSE are averages, which reduce the natural variability in the data. This paper demonstrates that adding noise to imputed values can effectively eliminate these biases. The required noise level is proportional to the MSE. Using a toy example in a multivariate normal setting, we compare two methods: predictive imputation, which minimizes MSE, and stochastic imputation, which incorporates random noise. Simulation results show that predictive methods systematically introduce bias, while stochastic methods preserve the data's natural variability and produce unbiased estimates. We also evaluate three popular imputation tools -- missForest, softImpute, and mice -- and observe consistent biases in predictive methods. These findings highlight that MSE is an inadequate measure of imputation quality, as it prioritizes accuracy over variability. Incorporating noise into imputation methods is essential to prevent biases and ensure valid downstream analyses, underscoring the importance of stochastic approaches for handling incomplete data.

KV-cache quantizers usually optimize storage-space reconstruction, even though attention reads keys through logits and values through attention-weighted readout. We argue that persistent cache error should be measured in model-visible coordinates. For keys, the visible object is score error modulo constant shifts; this yields HeadQ, a key-side method that stores a low-rank residual side code in a calibration-learned query basis and applies it as an additive logit correction. For values, fixed-attention readout gives an $A^2$-weighted token-distortion surrogate. Across six models, Fisher/score-space error predicts attention KL far better than raw key MSE; same-budget counterexamples, null-space interventions, query-PCA controls, and wrong-sign HeadQ falsify storage-MSE alternatives. Matched Pythia checkpoints localize the main anomaly to a small-model low-entropy route-flip boundary. In K-only WikiText-103 decode experiments with dense values, HeadQ removes roughly $84$--$94\%$ of the excess perplexity on the strongest 2-bit rows; in an auxiliary full-KV 2-bit composition, HeadQ plus an $A^2$ value policy improves all six models.

Standard representation probing for visual models relies on mathematically permutation-invariant operations like Global Average Pooling (GAP) or CLS tokens, treating patch representations as an unstructured bag-of-words. We challenge this paradigm by demonstrating that token order is a critical, exploitable dimension in frozen visual representations (e.g., MAE, BEiT, DINOv2, and ViT as CLS-ablation extreme). We propose SSMProbe, a probing framework driven by a State Space Model (SSM). Operating as discrete Linear Time-Invariant (LTI) dynamical systems, SSMs act as permutation-sensitive probes where sequence order strictly dictates the final state due to inherent memory decay. Formulating token ordering as an information scheduling problem, we compare fixed scan heuristics against a differentiable soft permutation (Sinkhorn-based) learned from downstream supervision. Evaluations on standard and fine-grained classification benchmarks reveal a striking order gap: while fixed scans fail dramatically on highly localized patch features, our learned soft permutation successfully extracts highly competitive performance from otherwise heavily localized patch sequences. We find that pre-training objectives fundamentally shape token structure: DINOv2 concentrates global semantics in optimized CLS tokens leaving patches hyperspecialized, pure MAE preserves distributed representations with heterogeneous patch informativeness, and ViT represents a supervised CLS-dominated extreme. BEiT occupies middle ground. This heterogeneity is order-dependent -- meaning the SSM probe's performance depends critically on which tokens are placed at which temporal positions -- and is not merely a topological property of the spatial grid. SSMProbe's learned routing effectively discovers and exploits this heterogeneity, offering a powerful new diagnostic lens for visual representation analysis.

This note clarifies the relationship between the recent TurboQuant work and the earlier DRIVE (NeurIPS 2021) and EDEN (ICML 2022) schemes. DRIVE is a 1-bit quantizer that EDEN extended to any $b>0$ bits per coordinate; we refer to them collectively as EDEN. First, TurboQuant$_{\text{mse}}$ is a special case of EDEN obtained by fixing EDEN's scalar scale parameter to $S=1$. EDEN supports both biased and unbiased quantization, each optimized by a different $S$ (chosen via methods described in the EDEN works). The fixed choice $S=1$ used by TurboQuant is generally suboptimal, although the optimal $S$ for biased EDEN converges to $1$ as the dimension grows; accordingly TurboQuant$_{\text{mse}}$ approaches EDEN's behavior for large $d$. Second, TurboQuant$_{\text{prod}}$ combines a biased $(b-1)$-bit EDEN step with an unbiased 1-bit QJL quantization of the residual. It is suboptimal in three ways: (1) its $(b-1)$-bit step uses the suboptimal $S=1$; (2) its 1-bit unbiased residual quantization has worse MSE than (unbiased) 1-bit EDEN; (3) chaining a biased $(b-1)$-bit step with a 1-bit unbiased residual step is inferior to unbiasedly quantizing the input directly with $b$-bit EDEN. Third, some of the analysis in the TurboQuant work mirrors that of the EDEN works: both exploit the connection between random rotations and the shifted Beta distribution, use the Lloyd-Max algorithm, and note that Randomized Hadamard Transforms can replace uniform random rotations. Experiments support these claims: biased EDEN (with optimized $S$) is more accurate than TurboQuant$_{\text{mse}}$, and unbiased EDEN is markedly more accurate than TurboQuant$_{\text{prod}}$, often by more than a bit (e.g., 2-bit EDEN beats 3-bit TurboQuant$_{\text{prod}}$). We also repeat all accuracy experiments from the TurboQuant paper, showing that EDEN outperforms it in every setup we have tried.

Accurate prediction of training time in distributed deep learning is crucial for resource allocation, cost estimation, and job scheduling. We observe that the floating-point precision setting is a key determinant of training time, leading to training time variations of ~2.4x over its minimum. However, existing studies on distributed training time prediction rely on static model computation graphs that do not capture precision variations, including mixed precision. According to our experiments, training time prediction without considering precision results in significant prediction errors - reaching up to 147.85% in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). To address this issue, we propose a precision-aware distributed training time predictor that achieves robust accuracy across diverse precision settings, including mixed precision, with 9.8% MAPE.

Adapting pre-trained vision-language models (VLMs) for robotic control requires injecting high-magnitude continuous gradients from a flow-matching action expert into a backbone trained exclusively with cross-entropy. This cross-modal gradient asymmetry - the spectral dimensionality mismatch between low-rank MSE regression gradients and the high-dimensional semantic manifold sculpted by CE pre-training, causes rapid, severe erosion of the VLM's visual-question-answering (VQA) capability. Industry-standard defences either sever the gradient pathway entirely via stop gradient, discarding the rich continuous supervision, or restrict parameter capacity through low-rank adapters (LoRA) that constrain the rank of updates but not their direction, and thus still overwrite the pre-trained manifold. We introduce AEGIS (Anchor-Enforced Gradient Isolation System): a buffer-free, layer-wise orthogonal gradient projection framework that enables direct continuous MSE learning while preserving the pre-trained VQA manifold - without any co-training data or replay buffer. AEGIS pre-computes a static Gaussian reference anchor from masked VQA forward passes across all transformer layers, then at each training step constructs a Wasserstein-2 transport penalty that generates an anchor restoration gradient. A sequential dual-backward decomposes the task and anchor gradients; for each transformer layer, AEGIS applies a single Gram-Schmidt orthogonal projection that bends the task gradient away from the destructive direction while preserving its constructive content. The projection sheds less than 1% of gradient energy on average, yet eliminates the cumulative activation drift that drives severe forgetting.

Local loss-landscape stabilization under sample growth is typically measured either pointwise or through isotropic averaging in the full parameter space. Despite practical value, both choices probe directions that contribute little to the dominant local deformation of strongly anisotropic neural landscapes. We recast stabilization as an observational problem and introduce a unified family of criteria parameterized by an aggregation order and a probing distribution; within this family we propose a curvature-aligned criterion $Δ_2^{(D)}$ that probes the loss increment field in the top-$D$ eigenspace of the empirical Hessian near a trained solution. Solely from a local quadratic model, we prove that $Δ_2^{(D)}$ preserves the $O(k^{-2})$ mean-squared rate of the full-space criterion while replacing ambient-dimension curvature dependence with dependence on the subspace dimension $D$; a corollary gives a closed-form spectral expression and a proposition identifies the top-$D$ eigenspace as extremal within the eigenspace-aligned family. We also derive scalable estimators based on Hessian-vector products, subspace Monte Carlo, and a closed-form Gaussian-moment proxy. On a decoder-only transformer, a curvature-aligned probe occupying a tiny fraction of parameter space already reproduces the full-space mean-squared signal to within numerical noise throughout the validated local regime, and the closed-form estimator is orders of magnitude faster than direct Monte Carlo after subspace construction.

Evaluation of Image Quality Assessment (IQA) models has long been dominated by global correlation metrics, such as Pearson Linear Correlation Coefficient (PLCC) and Spearman Rank-Order Correlation Coefficient (SRCC). While widely adopted, these metrics reduce performance to a single scalar, failing to capture how ranking consistency varies across the local quality spectrum. For example, two IQA models may achieve identical SRCC values, yet one ranks high-quality images (related to high Mean Opinion Score, MOS) more reliably, while the other better discriminates image pairs with small quality/MOS differences (related to $|Δ$MOS$|$). Such complementary behaviors are invisible under global metrics. Moreover, SRCC and PLCC are sensitive to test-sample quality distributions, yielding unstable comparisons across test sets. To address these limitations, we propose \textbf{Granularity-Modulated Correlation (GMC)}, which provides a structured, fine-grained analysis of IQA performance. GMC includes: (1) a \textbf{Granularity Modulator} that applies Gaussian-weighted correlations conditioned on absolute MOS values and pairwise MOS differences ($|Δ$MOS$|$) to examine local performance variations, and (2) a \textbf{Distribution Regulator} that regularizes correlations to mitigate biases from non-uniform quality distributions. The resulting \textbf{correlation surface} maps correlation values as a joint function of MOS and $|Δ$MOS$|$, providing a 3D representation of IQA performance. Experiments on standard benchmarks show that GMC reveals performance characteristics invisible to scalar metrics, offering a more informative and reliable paradigm for analyzing, comparing, and deploying IQA models. Codes are available at https://github.com/Dniaaa/GMC.

The curse of dimensionality remains a persistent challenge in modern optimization problems. Expanding the search space into higher dimensions exponentiates the difficulty of finding optimal solutions, rendering traditional algorithms inefficient. An efficient sampling strategy is presented to accelerate high-dimensional optimization as an alternative to uniform quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. This method, referred to as Hyperellipsoid Density Sampling (HDS), generates sequences by defining multiple hyperellipsoids throughout the search space. HDS utilizes three types of unsupervised learning algorithms to bypass high-dimensional geometric calculations, producing a non-uniform sample sequence that exploits statistically promising regions of the parameter space. The ability to influence its distribution towards regions of interest makes HDS versatile for applications beyond global optimization, where models benefit from samples focused in specific regions. HDS was evaluated against Sobol, a highly uniform QMC sampling method, using differential evolution (DE) on the challenging set of 29 CEC2017 benchmark test functions. The results show statistically significant improvements in final solution geometric mean error (p<0.05), with average performance gains ranging from 37% in 10D to 11% in 100D. This paper demonstrates the efficacy of HDS as a robust alternative to uniform QMC sampling in high-dimensional optimization.