Statistical Inference

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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  1. A Ranking Approach for Measuring Calibration

    Sep 14, 2026Anirban Chatterjee, Rina Foygel BarberMulticalibration and CalibrationProbability

  2. Membership Inference via Pairwise Likelihood Ratios

    Sep 14, 2026Shengjie Niu, Zebin Yun, Yeheng Ge +1Membership Inference AttacksMembership Inference

  3. Local Robustness Quantification for Naive Bayes Classifiers and Generative Forests: a General Approach

    Sep 11, 2026Adrián Detavernier, Jasper De BockRandom ForestStatistical Models

  4. A Statistical Approach to Estimating Sample Size of Machine Learning Models

    Sep 10, 2026Dat Phan-Trong, Sunil Gupta, Svetha VenkateshSample SizeMachine Learning

  5. A statistical approach to bias in zero-shot learning: the lens of handwriting recognition

    Sep 9, 2026Clarence Chew, Gim Siang Chia, Sukalpa Chanda +2Zero-Shot InferenceHandwritten Text Recognition

  6. Everything in Moderation: Per-Domain Coverage Optima and Alignment-Resistant Domain Gaps in Multi-Domain Mid-Training

    Sep 8, 2026Yunpeng Xu, Kun ZhengFinite-Sample Coverage GuaranteesContent Moderation

  7. The Art of Hierarchical Competing Patterns: Gaussian Process Optimization of Hyphenation

    Sep 7, 2026Ondřej Sojka, Petr SojkaHyperparameter OptimizationPrompt Optimization

  8. Towards a Statistical Understanding of Mixture-of-Experts

    Sep 3, 2026Siyuan He, Bokai Yang, Jie Hu +2Mixture-of-Experts ModelsAdaptive Routing

  9. Benchmarking Language Models for Statistical Problem Formulation

    Sep 2, 2026Chen Wang, Junzhe Zhao, Xin Cong +2Benchmarking Large Language ModelsStatistical Inference

  10. Debiased Inference for AI-Generated Data without Gold-Standard Labels: Identification via Multiple Imperfect Measurements

    Aug 18, 2026Naoki Egami, Sooahn ShinOnline InferenceStatistical Inference

  11. When Do Anchor-Based Pointwise LLM Rerankers Help? Retriever Quality, Statistical Scope, and Anchor Design

    Aug 11, 2026Utshab Kumar Ghosh, Shubham ChatterjeeRerankingResidual Anchoring

  12. Deciding When to Switch: E-Processes for Adaptive Minimax Training for Generative Adversarial Nets

    Aug 10, 2026Hyunjoo Kim, Sicheng Wu, Agastya Venkatraman +2Generative Adversarial NetworkTwo-Sample Testing

  13. Evaluating Generative Time-Series Models on Data with Point Masses

    Aug 10, 2026Jian XuSynthetic Time SeriesDeterminantal Point Process

  14. From Approachability Residuals to Anytime-Valid Evidence: The Online Convex Geometry of Testing by Betting

    Aug 10, 2026Jinze ZhaoTwo-Sample TestingFinite Time Analysis

  15. Fisher-R1: Training LLM Agents for Reliable Hypothesis Testing

    Aug 7, 2026Jiacheng Miao, Jin Mu, Guanhua Chen +1Two-Sample TestingLarge Language Model Agents

  16. NxN E-valuation: Hypothesis Certification via a Conformal CRT Null

    Aug 6, 2026Bin Wang, Yan ZhongHypothesisTwo-Sample Testing

  17. Hypothesis Testing with Conditional Queries: Learnability and the Value of Interaction

    Aug 6, 2026Zonghuan XuTwo-Sample TestingOptimal Sample Complexity

  18. Nonparametric Goodness-of-fit Testing under Covariate Shift

    Aug 5, 2026Zhen Hou, Dong XiaCovariate ShiftStatistical Models

  19. Automatic Statistical Test for Rationally Expressible Algorithms by Selective Inference, with Applications to Feature Selection

    Aug 5, 2026Teruyuki Katsuoka, Tomohiro Shiraishi, Shuichi Nishino +1Feature SelectionTwo-Sample Testing

  20. Local verification cannot detect non-transportability: a cohomological theory of context preservation in agentic reasoning

    Aug 4, 2026Suyash MishraVerifierAgentic Reasoning

  21. Beyond Accuracy: A Multidimensional Evaluation of Statistical Reasoning in Large Language Models

    Aug 4, 2026Monnie McGee, Mateo Langston Smith, Julian CabreraStatistical Inference

  22. Detecting Nonproperness of Likelihood Equations

    Aug 3, 2026Xiaoxian Tang, Bican Xia, Tianqi ZhaoStatistical ModelsLikelihood

  23. Who Wins Where? Conformal Model Comparison for Local Superiority

    Jul 31, 2026Yi Zhou, Baishi Li, Xuan Yao +1Conformal InferenceModel Selection

  24. Theatre Chapbooks At Scale: A Statistical Comparative Analysis of Typography

    Jul 29, 2026Diego Belzarena, Seginus Mowlavi, Paula Casariego Castiñeira +3StylometricTypography Generation

  25. FILLER: Feature Imputation via Latent Location Exploration and Retrieval

    Jul 25, 2026Santu Mondal, Chayan Maitra, Rajat K. DeMultivariate Time Series ImputationImputation

  26. Statistically Supported LLM Ingredient and Recipe Data Collection in Computational Nutrition

    Jul 25, 2026James Izzard, Hassan Eshkiki, Fabio CaraffiniNutrient ReasoningRecipe

  27. An Integrated Deep Learning and Statistical Framework for Whole-Network Gene--Environment Association with Leaf Vascular Architecture

    Jul 23, 2026Geran Zhao, Yangsheng Wang, Xiaotian Dai +13D Plant PhenotypingDeep Learning Framework

  28. An Introduction to Bayesian and Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference with Machine Learning

    Jul 23, 2026Maximilian Dax, Theo Heimel, Gilles LouppeBayesianStatistical Inference

  29. Zero-Flow Two-Sample Tests

    Jul 23, 2026Yakun Wang, Leyang Wang, Song Liu +1Two-Sample Testing

  30. Statistical Inference for Rank Allocation in Low-Rank Adaptation

    Jul 22, 2026Yihang Gao, Vincent Y. F. TanGradient-Free Rank AllocatorLow-Rank Adaptation

  31. Directional Kernel Mean Difference: A Fast Signed Statistic for Univariate Distribution Comparison

    Jul 22, 2026Shijie Zhong, Jiangfeng FuMaximum Mean DiscrepancyKernel Method

  32. Equality, Equity, and Causality in Fairness Research: A Commentary on Cheng (2026)

    Jul 20, 2026Youmi SukPsychometricsMethodology

  33. Non-Asymptotic Best Policy Identification Guarantees in Online Reinforcement Learning

    Jul 19, 2026Joseph Lazzaro, Alessio Russo, Aldo PacchianoOptimal PoliciesMarkov Decision Processes

  34. Dimension-Calibrated Unexplained Mass: An Interpretable Drift Statistic for Contamination Monitoring in Data Streams

    Jul 18, 2026Behnam AsadiContaminationGaussian Mixture Models

  35. Testing Distributions Against Bounded Distinguishers

    Jul 17, 2026Mark Bun, Rathin Desai, Renato Ferreira PintoIndistinguishabilityOptimal Sample Complexity

  36. ASK-NN: An Asymmetric Nearest-Neighbor Test that detects Distribution Drifts in Natural Language

    Jul 17, 2026Sergey Zakharov, Rodion Oblovatny, Alexey ZaytsevLarge Language Model HallucinationTwo-Sample Testing

  37. Publicly-Verifiable Certificates for Statistical Algorithms

    Jul 17, 2026Michael Ngo, Michael P. KimZero-Knowledge ProofsCertificates

  38. Can We Trust Item Response Theory for AI Evaluation?

    Jul 16, 2026Han Jiang, Sunbeom Kwon, Jinwen Luo +2Artificial Intelligence BenchmarksItem Response Theory

  39. A Shortcut to Statistically Steady-State Turbulence with Flow Matching

    Jul 14, 2026Gianluca Galletti, Gerald Gutenbrunner, William Hornsby +5TurbulenceShallow Water Equations

  40. Solution of the Hempel's statistical ambiguity problem and Causal AI

    Jul 14, 2026Evgenii VityaevCausal ReasoningProbabilistic Inference

  41. Is Model Instability just Noise to be Tolerated or a Property that can be Managed?

    Jul 11, 2026Amirali Rayegan, Lunxiao Li, Tim MenziesInstabilityStatistical Models

  42. Geometric mean-based pairwise comparison method with the reference values -- statistical approach

    Jul 10, 2026Konrad Kułakowski, Jacek SzybowskiPrioritizationPairwise Preferences

  43. Trivial Prompt Reframing Bypasses Safety Guardrails in Googleś MedGemma-4B

    Jul 9, 2026Avi-ad Avraam BuskilaLarge Language Model SafetyHigher Attack Success Rates

  44. Failures and Successes to Learn a Core Conceptual Distinction from the Statistics of Language

    Jul 5, 2026Zhimin Hu, Jeroen van Paridon, Gary LupyanStatistical InferenceProbability

  45. evalci: A Python Library for Statistically Rigorous Comparison of Language Model Evaluations

    Jul 5, 2026Shreyas K ChandrahasCode EvaluationMmlu-Pro

  46. The Granularity Paradox: How Temporal Disaggregation Inflates In-Sample Fit and Compounds Out-of-Sample Error

    Jul 5, 2026Hugo MoreiraStatistical ModelsErrors

  47. Significance-First Splitting: Aligning Treatment Heterogeneity Detection with Honest Estimation

    Jul 4, 2026Pantelis Z. Hadjipantelis, Weng Man Chiang, Karthik NageshHeterogeneous Treatment EffectsTwo-Sample Testing

  48. Why3-py: A Tool for Formal Verification of Hypothesis Testing and Meta-Analysis in Python

    Jul 4, 2026Akira Tanaka, Yusuke KawamotoTwo-Sample TestingReproducibility

  49. A Mathematical Optimization Approach for Expert-Informed Bayesian Best Subset Selection

    Jun 28, 2026Nolan Alexander, Henning MortveitModel SelectionStatistical Models

  50. Statistically Valid Post-Training Hyperparameter Selection: From Tuning to Guarantees

    Jun 24, 2026Amirmohammad Farzaneh, Osvaldo SimeoneHyperparameter OptimizationTwo-Sample Testing

  51. Model selection with proper scoring rules on data sets of time series: prefer the mean scaled score

    Jun 23, 2026Giorgio Corani, Stefano Damato, Dario Azzimonti +1Model SelectionMultivariate Forecasting

  52. Bayesian control for coding agents

    Jun 23, 2026Theodore Papamarkou, Vladislav Smirnov, Viktor Mazanov +4Coding AgentsLarge Language Model Generation

  53. Statistical validation and full-sphere extension of a Bayesian model for human static sound localisation

    Jun 23, 2026Roberto Barumerli, Fabian Brinkmann, Emanuele Zanoni +3Sound Source LocalizationStatistical Inference

  54. Neural Networks as Linear Regression: An Introduction for Statisticians

    Jun 22, 2026Abigail Loe, Susan Murray, Zhenke WuNeural NetworkStatistical Inference

  55. StatABench: Dataset and Framework for Evaluating Statistical Analysis Capabilities of LLMs

    Jun 22, 2026Youxin Zhu, Yixuan Ding, Peng Lai +3Statistical InferenceKnowledge-Grounded Reasoning

  56. Statistical Inference for Misspecified Contextual Bandits

    Jun 21, 2026Yongyi Guo, Ziping XuLinear Contextual BanditsStatistical Inference

  57. Betting on Moments: Legendre Jumper Martingales for Online Exchangeability Testing

    Jun 18, 2026Johan Hallberg SzabadváryConformal Test MartingalesTwo-Sample Testing

  58. Statistical Properties of Training & Generalization

    Jun 18, 2026Itay Lavie, Noam Levi, Yonatan KahnPhysics-Informed Machine LearningStatistical Mechanics

  59. Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting

    Jun 17, 2026Zheng He, Danica J. SutherlandConditional IndependenceTwo-Sample Testing

  60. A Cross-Model VLM-Judge Protocol for Single-Image 3D Mesh Quality (and Why Cheap Proxies Fall Short)

    Jun 16, 2026Ali Asaria, Tony Salomone, Deep GandhiMeshes3D Object Understanding