Distributional Fidelity

Railway engineers need simulation models that predict vehicle responses across operating scenarios that cannot be tested exhaustively. Agreement with representative measurements provides essential evidence, but calibration at a limited set of conditions does not guarantee accuracy elsewhere. We present a multifidelity railway-bogie response-correction method that treats multibody simulation histories as low-fidelity information and roller-rig measurements as high-fidelity evidence. This method combines an experiment-anchored fidelity assignment with physics-informed discrepancy learning for multichannel bogie-response histories. A time-delay neural network (TDNN) represents the condition-dependent simulation trend, and development-fitted amplitude alignment defines the low-fidelity baseline. A residual-correction network then models the reproducible response component not explained by this baseline and adds it to the baseline. An effective dynamic-balance equation constrains the learned discrepancy by representing differences in inertia, damping, stiffness, and external forcing between the simulated and physical systems. The training objective combines this constraint with residual matching, temporal smoothness, and a combined channel-2 acceleration loss selected using displacement-acceleration consistency evidence. For the evaluated reconstruction case, the corrected response gives a mean coefficient of determination of 0.8197, a mean normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of 4.6055 %, and a mean normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) of 1.9297 %. These results provide initial evidence of accurate response prediction at the held-out 385 km/h condition.

Fairness auditing of text-to-image diffusion models often requires generating large numbers of images across sampling configurations, making comprehensive evaluation computationally expensive. We propose a causal-abstraction-based audit instrument for efficiently evaluating fairness under interventions on the classifier-free guidance scale. Given a fixed prompt and a target feature function, we represent the diffusion process as a low-level structural causal model and construct a corresponding high-level model over abstract denoising states. We characterize the projected causal structure, establish identifiability of the fairness-relevant interventional query, and provide sufficient conditions under which the high-level model preserves this query. A probabilistic transformer implements the high-level model as an amortized predictor of target-feature distributions across guidance scales. Experiments evaluate distributional fidelity, fairness-query accuracy, and computational efficiency. We present two auditing demonstrations: one using standard Stable Diffusion 1.5 and another using StayFair, a fairness-enhanced Stable Diffusion model, to examine their behavior across guidance scales.

Radiance field representations such as 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) enable high-quality novel view synthesis but can introduce complex, view-dependent artifacts from reconstruction, rendering, and compression. Reliable perceptual quality assessment (QA) is thus essential for evaluating rendered views and guiding the design of perceptually faithful scene representations. Existing full-reference QA metrics require an aligned reference image, while recent cross-reference metrics relax this requirement by comparing a test view with non-aligned references. However, under wide-baseline radiance field settings, selecting a reliable nearby reference can be difficult, particularly when evaluating views along arbitrary trajectories and poses. We propose SCODA, a lightweight scene-conditioned objective QA method that shifts QA from explicit image-to-image comparison to scene-manifold modeling. High-quality observations of each scene are represented as a multivariate Gaussian distribution in deep feature space, producing a semantic fidelity score that measures deviation from the scene distribution. A weakly-supervised distortion-aware patch discriminator provides a complementary realism signal, and both cues are combined through an unsupervised bounded fusion strategy. Experiments on multiple benchmarks show strong agreement with human judgments and robust generalization across GS- and NeRF-generated views and trajectories. Code is publicly available at https://gitlab.com/saeedmp/scoda.

Demographic synthetic survey panels are often validated by matching aggregate answers to published surveys. We test what that certificate establishes across six multiselect batteries from four survey organisations in three countries. The headline analysis is restricted to three instruments whose synthetic cohort and human target share the stated population frame; three other batteries remain sensitivity analyses. The response contract dominates measured fidelity. In the aligned instruments, committed sets leave 66 of 128 model-battery option slots empty in panels of up to 500 respondents, versus 0 of 128 under per-option probability elicitation. Across eight uncapped model-instrument comparisons, probabilities reduce option-marginal MAE by 4.53 to 7.30 points. The capped instrument reverses on two models until the vectors are projected onto its stated maximum. These are measurement effects: human targets are realised check-all responses, whereas the vectors are latent inclusion propensities. Published marginal agreement also fails to discriminate respondent simulation from direct population estimation. On nine aligned model-battery pairs, a no-persona population-prevalence query averages 6.27 MAE versus 12.39 for committed panels and wins all nine comparisons. Constraint-aware probability vectors average 5.34 and beat the query on four of nine, so the baseline challenges the validation criterion rather than proving direct estimation uniformly best. On three unpublished demographic cells, neither approach beats reciting the national distribution. Population-marginal agreement is therefore evidence about an elicitation contract and an estimand obtainable without simulated respondents, not evidence of individual simulation.

Generative data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, yet its theoretical effect on downstream generalization remains poorly understood. In this work, we develop a statistical framework for conditional generative augmentation and analyze its impact on classification risk. We formalize augmentation as a distribution-mixing process and show that the resulting risk distortion is controlled by both the augmentation strength and the class-conditional Wasserstein discrepancy between real and generated distributions. We further derive a capacity-dependent generalization bound based on Rademacher complexity, revealing an explicit trade-off between hypothesis complexity, augmentation intensity, and generative fidelity. Empirically, we evaluate the framework on binary and multiclass imbalanced classification tasks using Conditional GAN and Conditional WGAN-GP augmentation. Across datasets, CWGAN-GP consistently achieves lower Wasserstein discrepancies than CGAN, indicating improved distributional fidelity. However, improved fidelity does not necessarily translate into superior classification performance, with classical oversampling methods often remaining competitive. These findings support the central theoretical prediction that augmentation reliability is governed by distributional approximation error rather than predictive performance alone. Overall, this work establishes generative augmentation as a distributional perturbation process whose reliability can be quantified through Wasserstein-based measures and supported by finite-sample generalization guarantees. The proposed framework provides a principled foundation for evaluating synthetic data quality beyond classification accuracy alone.

Watermarking has been proposed as a way to identify synthetic samples in estimation settings where no metadata is available to distinguish them from real samples, but its precise effects remain unexplored. In the absence of a distinguishing mechanism, it has been shown that adding synthetic samples significantly reduces the marginal efficacy of new real samples. In this work, we study the minimax loss of such recursive discrete distribution estimation in the presence of watermarks in contrast to the unassisted and oracle-assisted losses. When the fraction of real samples vanishes asymptotically, we provide a lower bound that shows that it is impossible to improve performance by adding watermarks unless the false negative rate of detection also vanishes. Additionally, we show that in most regimes, the worst-case losses of a sequence of simple deterministic estimators match the corresponding lower bounds up to constants. Finally, we propose masking, a randomization procedure that narrows the gap in the remaining regimes to a Jensen gap. We conjecture that a tighter lower bound argument can close this gap.

We study masking diffusion for discrete sampling and introduce a path-resolved measure of data geometry called the \emph{unmasking growth complexity} ({\textsf{UGC}\xspace}). Its local increments directly control Kullback--Leibler (KL) discretization error, yielding a unified analysis of Bernoulli-subset and fixed-cardinality unmasking schemes. In log-reveal-odds coordinates, this structure yields optimized single-block and multi-block schedules, and quantifies the gains from adapting computational effort to data geometry. Crucially, we show how {\textsf{UGC}\xspace} increments can be estimated from samples via KL increments along coupled reveal trajectories. This leads to \emph{certified-optimal} samplers that achieve a prescribed KL error with high probability and iteration complexity within a constant factor of the corresponding oracle procedure. Collapsing the \ugc path yields the aggregate {\textsf{UGC}\xspace} mass, which connects to classical multivariate dependence measures and complexity measures from previous analyses of discrete diffusion. In the fine-partition limit, the squared integral of the square-root {\textsf{UGC}\xspace} density determines the sharp leading-order optimal Euler discretization error. Examples exhibit substantial dimension-dependent gains over coarse schedules, including $\widetildeΩ(\sqrt{d})$ improvements achievable with a constant number of adaptively placed blocks.

We propose a fidelity-constrained framework that anchors the output of a black-box denoiser to its input without retraining and with little additional computation. The method linearly blends the denoised image with the input and selects the maximum blending factor that satisfies a prescribed local fidelity constraint using Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR) or Structural Similarity Index (SSIM). For PSNR control, a closed-form solution is obtained under a local constant-blending assumption. For SSIM control, we derive a tractable formulation based on inverse SSIM under the same assumption and solve it efficiently using iterative root finding. Experiments on DIV2K images with synthetic Gaussian noise and outputs from Real-ESRGAN and a non-local means denoiser show that the proposed anchoring strategy provides effective fidelity control while balancing denoising performance and statistical naturalness, as measured by the excess kurtosis of residual noise. In particular, SSIM-based anchoring yields more consistent behavior across noise levels than PSNR-based anchoring.

Structured potential outcomes such as microscopy images may be recorded after an unknown, unit-specific transformation. If that transformation can depend on treatment, covariates or the intrinsic outcome, raw-coordinate analyses may mix biological effects with acquisition geometry. We study the unrestricted observation model X = Γ . Y(A) and characterize its observable information: a target is uniformly recoverable exactly when it is constant on group orbits, while a Borel maximal invariant retains every measurable invariant target. We then distinguish observability from statistical losslessness. A quotient-faithful reconstruction theorem shows that quotient reduction is sufficient for the full transformed experiment exactly when the conditional law of the raw observation given treatment, covariates and the quotient has a parameter-free version. Conditional Haar contamination on a compact group yields Blackwell equivalence as a special case; it is not imposed in the main model. We also separate independent site-specific product actions from shared diagonal actions and show why componentwise canonicalization can discard relative cross-site information. Under explicit metric and kernel regularity, an approximate-contamination theorem bounds quotient-law Wasserstein error and the induced perturbation of population maximum mean discrepancy. For finite-support multichannel lattice images, we construct a maximal invariant under integer translations and quarter turns, combine its characteristic Gaussian kernel with a complete paired-swap test, and retain the original simulations and RxRx1 HUVEC study. Under the sharp null, the quotient test rejected in 0.052 of simulation replicates; at unit effect strength its power was 0.992. The primary RxRx1 contrast had an enumerated paired-swap p-value of 0.0078.

Low-precision formats usually optimize scalar fidelity while inheriting conventional product arithmetic. We introduce CurveFP, a block-scaled family that distributes magnitudes across interleaved logarithmic curves. Uniform curve indices make every nonzero product an exact sign and integer-index update, while a rational radix exposes the finite phase schedule required for accumulation. We instantiate the algebra as CurveFP8 E4C3/E5C2 for training and CurveFP7 E3C3 for compact inference. On four 7B-9B models, CurveFP7 beats tensorwise FP8 perplexity with one fewer element bit and stays within 1.32% of native quality. CurveFP8 lowers error in all 36 paired training-GEMM comparisons. Across three matched 3B-token pretraining triplets, it reaches mean BF16-inference perplexity 22.5366 versus 22.5407 for FP8 and has a lower format penalty in every seed. Downstream evaluation shows transfer parity and a consistent WikiText-103 gain. In a preliminary 4x4 Nangate45 spatial accelerator tile, CurveFP8 uses one fewer product register and 4.6% less area than timing-closing FP8 at 500 MHz. These results support CurveFP as a numerical and arithmetic co-design, while leaving system-level efficiency to future study.

Text-to-music language models begin with a choice usually made by default: how to tokenize music. Normally entangled with backbone, data, and recipe, its effect has never been measured in isolation. We fix pretrained Qwen3.5 (0.8B-27B), data, budget, and decoding, and swap only the representation across seven tokenizations, anchoring texture metrics to each representation's model-free ceiling. The ordering is clean and surprising: representation, not model size, is the binding variable for distributional fidelity. Scaling the backbone 34x barely moves Frechet Music Distance (FMD), whereas switching representation halves it. PMT, a performance-resolution stream we release (10 ms timing, per-note velocity, multi-track texture; 609 symbols), reaches FMD 159 at 0.8B against 272-286 for beat grids (1.7-1.8x lower, up to 2.8x elsewhere; non-overlapping bootstrap CIs), so a 0.8B performance-resolution model beats a 27B beat grid. It reappears on a 26M from-scratch backbone and a second performance-resolution tokenizer: a property of the class, not one lucky vocabulary. Nor is it a finer-lattice artifact: snapping PMT's onsets to the beat grids' resolution still leaves it 67-129 FMD ahead of both (n=500). The effect is distributional; whether it is audible is a separate question, left open by our probe, with a human study pre-registered. Native caption adherence is weak but separable: a lightweight decode-time constraint doubles instrument-F1 (.28 to .60) and Correct-Key (.16 to .35) at no distributional cost. We release the harness, 25+ checkpoints, two corpora (86.6k aligned across caption/MIDI/ABC/audio; 6.25M captioned, the largest for music), and an imprinting diagnostic: published text-to-MIDI systems reproduce their training distribution near-invariant to the caption (72% vs. 71% chord-time on disjoint domains). The field's next representation claim can now be measured, not asserted.

Drifting objectives compare a target and model distribution through a vector field observed noisily at finitely many locations. We ask what distributional conclusion such a frozen measurement system warrants. For integrable antisymmetric interactions and absolutely continuous laws in a declared finite density basis, the unnormalized sampled numerator satisfies $\operatorname{vec}(V_X)=Mc$, where $c$ is an antisymmetric mismatch and $M$ is probe-dependent. This identity yields an a posteriori total-variation (TV) upper confidence bound accounting for held-out field noise, estimated-operator error, and externally validated $L^1$ residual radii around normalized density approximants in the span; a nonpositive observability margin returns the trivial TV bound and abstains. The audit recomputes this numerator from held-out samples; a normalized drift statistic requires a separate joint numerator--denominator analysis. For Gaussian-RBF interactions, a global envelope supports distribution-free and empirical-Bernstein radii without truncation, with companion bounds for the Laplace similarity in the original drifting objective. We characterize random-probe observability by a population Gram matrix, identify rank and symmetry degeneracies, and prove large-bandwidth collapse toward mean matching. Synthetic studies exercise Gaussian and Laplace numerators, separately prespecified bounded-vector and variance-adaptive radii, Monte Carlo-calibrated operators, nonzero residual radii around normalized finite-basis approximants, outward-rounded observability bounds, and designed abstention. A joint basis-size/dimension stress path extends evaluation through $m=8$. The result is a conditional diagnostic for a finite density class, or for normalized finite-basis density approximants with external residual radii, not a universal guarantee from small training drift.

Tool-using LLM agents act on typed tool returns, records pairing provenance and categorical fields with numerical values. Runtime permission gates generally authorize the observed return and action, leaving the decision unprotected against small errors in how the return was bound to its source. We ask whether a candidate action stays authorized over a declared neighborhood of plausible correctly bound returns: one admissible binding fault plus bounded numerical drift. We prove that certifying the categorical and numerical channels separately does not compose: perturbations that are safe on each channel alone can jointly turn the same action unsafe. CAGE certifies this joint neighborhood directly, enumerating the discrete branches exactly and certifying the continuous perturbation within each branch. Across synthetic, policy-as-code, regulatory, and real-transaction settings, CAGE removes the in-budget false allows that accurate pointwise gates admit, while keeping a useful fraction of decisions autonomous. When the policy is executable, CAGE-Exact certifies the policy itself; otherwise CAGE-Lip and CAGE-RS certify a learned gate under an explicit, measured fidelity assumption.

Synthetic tabular data is increasingly used in privacy-preserving data sharing, data augmentation, and to mitigate downstream classifier bias. State-of-the-art tabular diffusion models such as TabDDPM and TabSyn achieve excellent distributional fidelity but offer no mechanism for fairness; conversely, fairness-aware tabular generators (DECAF, FairTGAN, FairTabDDPM) impose explicit fairness penalties at training time, yielding modest fairness gains at substantial cost to either sample quality or downstream utility. We introduce FairDiffuseVQVAE, a two-stage architecture that decouples fidelity from fairness: a vector-quantized autoencoder with a row-level discriminator (Stage1, no fairness terms) is followed by a DiffuseVAE-style continuous diffusion refiner that conditions on both the Stage-1 reconstruction and the protected attribute via classifier-free guidance (Stage2). Fairness emerges as a property of the sampling distribution -- uniform sampling of the protected attribute at inference time enforces demographic parity by construction, rather than from competing loss terms. On the Adult, Bank and COMPAS datasets, FairDiffuseVQVAE achieves the highest mean Demographic Parity Ratio ($0.702$, $+47\%$ over FairTabDDPM) and Equalized Odds Ratio ($0.686$, $+100\%$). It also attains the lowest mean pair-wise correlation error ($0.034$) of any published method, while explicitly trading \sim$$15 AUC points for these fairness gains.

In this paper, we formulate three communication tasks for empirical optimal transport: distributed coupling sampling, cost-evaluable coupling output, and scalar value-certified sampling. Our main result is a field-code compiler: any communicated transport field approximating an optimal empirical Monge map to error $η$ can be completed by sparse target-cell residuals into an exact-marginal value-certified sampler with scalar certificate $W_1(μ,ν)\leq U\leq W_1(μ,ν)+2Δ$, where $Δ$ is the public target-partition diameter. The certificate accuracy is controlled by $Δ$ alone. The field error $η$ controls residual communication under a cell-margin condition; without a margin, $η$ alone does not bound residuals. We instantiate the compiler via adaptive local-affine and tensor-product spline codes with $d(m+1)^db$ field bits in the spline case, plus residual lists charged separately. For lower bounds, exact Gap-Hamming embeddings prove certified output is hard, including a smooth cell-packing diffeomorphism family requiring $Ω(\varepsilon^{-2d/(d+4)})$ communication for any cost-evaluable, cost-certified, or value-certified protocol. The same gadgets admit zero-communication samplers, formally separating the sampler and certificate-bearing output models. These results identify the transport field as the right communicated object whenever a field code is available, primarily as a residual-sparsity tool.

Synthetic tabular data are valued for preserving not just column-wise marginals but inter-column dependency, which carries much of the minority-class signal in domains such as fraud detection and clinical risk. Yet standard certification is largely blind to it: a fully-factorized baseline that destroys all inter-column dependency still appears nearly real under the commonly reported linear classifier two-sample test (C2ST), and is only mildly penalized by pairwise Trend scores. This is a known weakness of linear detection scores, which we confirm on four benchmarks. We therefore decompose a stronger, gradient-boosted C2ST score into marginal, dependency, and numerical-categorical cross terms, each read against a zero-dependency reference and a real-data oracle. Applied to representative flow-matching (TabbyFlow/EF-VFM) and diffusion (TabDiff) generators, it finds a persistent dependency gap of comparable magnitude in both, tracking what their objectives share rather than anything specific to one. Dependency is necessary for minority-class utility, since a zero-dependency reference collapses it, yet the generators' residual gaps coincide with much smaller shortfalls that do not track the measured gap. The gap is neither a structural limitation of mean-field objectives nor closed by a 16x capacity increase where training is clean, which motivates supervising dependency directly in the objective as the next intervention to test.

Test-time collaboration, including self-consistency, best-of-N selection, critic models, and verifier pipelines, is often credited with broadly improving LLM reasoning, yet its gains are uneven and sometimes negative. We ask when training-free collaboration should be expected to help. For a fixed candidate pool, we decompose a selector or verifier's net gain into measurable factors: recoverable mass, verification-signal coverage, conditional selection quality, and harm to already-correct outputs. This reframes collaboration as a candidate-selection problem rather than as an intrinsic property of a multi-agent topology. Across LiveCodeBench, MATH Level-5 hard subjects, and GPQA-Diamond, gains are bounded first by the oracle gap and then by signal fidelity, which we measure directly as candidate-level agreement between verifier verdicts and official labels. On LiveCodeBench, a public-test verifier (MCC 0.825) gains +8.14 percentage points (pp) over a first-sample baseline; a generated-test verifier (MCC 0.248) improves by +2.70pp and is not statistically distinguishable from an LLM selector, but operates at near-zero harm versus the selector's 4.69% harm rate. On MATH, a symbolic answer-equivalence selector beats self-consistency by +4.67pp, while LLM selectors are negative. On GPQA-Diamond, recoverable mass is only 3.03% and 87.54% of candidate pools are answer-identical; a weaker model's pools shrink both further, suggesting that oracle gap is a joint property of task, model, and sampling configuration. Our framework yields a practical pre-deployment diagnostic: estimate the oracle gap, then measure coverage, signal fidelity, and harm before investing in collaboration.

Quantum state tomography is sample-starved, and the states one prepares live on a narrow, learnable manifold. A $k{=}0$ prior-only control shows that on concentrated families a prior estimate is already near-optimal, so ``high fidelity at few measurements'' can be family memorization rather than tomography; genuine measurement-efficiency needs a model that conditions on the measurements and demonstrably uses them. On a shared matrix-product-state (MPS) core parameterization we study two routes. ApproachA learns a generative prior over MPS cores with measurement-guided posterior inference (gold-standard-validated, but whose few-measurement accuracy the control shows is largely the prior). ApproachB, our main proposal, is a \emph{fixed-protocol amortized} MPS estimator trained once with a gauge-invariant fidelity loss; we deliberately do not rest it on a permutation-invariant set encoder (a plain MLP matches it). The decisive lever is the measurement design: motivated by the fact that local reduced density matrices determine a $χ$-MPS, conditioning on an \emph{informative local} Pauli set rather than random strings turns a modest, memorization-prone estimator into a high-fidelity one ($\approx\!0.95$, up to $+0.59$ over prior-only, decisively passing a shuffled-measurement control). A dropout ensemble, conformally recalibrated, gives $\approx\!90\%$-coverage intervals -- including for observables never measured, where a shot-based interval does not exist. Quality holds as the system grows (fidelity $0.90$ at $n{=}10$, gain \emph{growing} in $n$; $0.88$ at bond dimension $χ{=}4$), the parameterization is polynomial (native contraction to $20$ qubits), and we close the loop on IBM hardware ($5$ states at $0.97$ from hardware-measured Paulis).

Workload-based differentially private (DP) synthetic data methods privately measure aggregate queries and post-process the noisy answers into synthetic records. Generic workloads can achieve strong distributional fidelity, but causal estimands such as the average treatment effect (ATE) depend on treatment-arm balance and outcome moments that generic marginals need not preserve. We propose causal workloads: DP query sets designed around the orthogonal moments used by doubly robust causal estimators. The released workload can be used directly by stable moment-map estimators or reconstructed by maximum-entropy calibration into reusable synthetic data; our theory decomposes ATE error into sampling, privacy, workload-approximation, Monte Carlo, and calibration terms. We also introduce Causal-AIM, an adaptive workload selector, and a noise-aware multiple-imputation (NA+MI) procedure for confidence intervals from DP synthetic data. Because the workload is released once, the same DP synthetic table can support ATE, ATT, and subgroup analyses without additional privacy spending. Empirically, causal workloads are most useful at strict privacy budgets and for calibrated uncertainty, while generic workloads often retain an advantage for point RMSE as privacy relaxes. The broader lesson is a tradeoff: distributional fidelity can help point accuracy, but valid causal inference requires preserving causal moments and propagating DP noise rather than treating synthetic rows as real.

Synthetic tabular data enables microdata sharing in regulated domains, yet deploying continuous-time generative models requires balancing analytical utility, disclosure risk, and computational cost. Latent-space flow models are flexible, but theoretical equivalences across learning targets, probability paths, and sampling dynamics can translate into different behaviour under finite-step integration and explicit compute budgets. We present an empirical study of tabular latent flow models across seven datasets, evaluating velocity, score, noise, and posterior matching objectives under optimal transport (OT) and variance-preserving (VP) paths, ODE and SDE sampling, and varying integration budgets. Our contributions are threefold: (1) we show that the learning target largely determines the utility-risk operating regime, with velocity and posterior matching tending to yield higher utility, while score and noise matching tend to achieve lower disclosure risk; (2) we demonstrate that configuration and sampling choices shift performance, with midpoint often improving distributional fidelity and OT paths often tolerating earlier stopping than VP, enabling compute savings under fixed budgets or risk thresholds; and (3) we distil these findings into actionable defaults and practical configuration guidance to support pre-release model selection under disclosure risk and resource constraints. The code implementation and supplementary materials can be accessed in https://github.com/rulnasution/tabular-latent-flow/.

Enterprise behavioral simulation requires more than producing a plausible response. Many decisions depend on the shape of a population under a proposed action: which segments accept, defect, hesitate, or move into risk-sensitive states. This paper introduces Posterior Twins, a memory-grounded digital-twin approach that represents likely behavior as an updated distribution under a specific decision context. We evaluate a family of Twinning Labs behavioral-model operating points on a 226-example held-out behavioral-response benchmark and report both modal accuracy and Wasserstein-1 distance. The results show that modal accuracy and distributional fidelity identify different operating regimes. TL-Twin Alpha achieves the lowest observed Wasserstein-1 distance in the reported result set ($W_1 = 1.16$), while TL-Twin Delta and TL-Twin Gamma provide balanced operating points near the modal-accuracy frontier. The paper frames these results as a systems result: governed memory, behavioral model routing, scenario orchestration, distributional aggregation, and auditability are necessary for turning simulated behavior into reusable enterprise decision evidence.

Synthetic and distilled student data are increasingly used to enable privacy-conscious learning analytics, yet their suitability for decision-facing institutional support remains uncertain. In dropout support, generated data must preserve not only predictive utility or distributional resemblance, but also the financial-status evidence used to guide advising, payment-plan assistance, and scholarship-related decisions. Method: This study introduces CaP-Eval, a decision-facing causal-privacy audit workflow for evaluating generated student data under a fixed estimand, timing-aware adjustment design, estimator set, and empirical privacy-governance screen. The workflow compares original, distilled, adversarial synthetic, statistical synthetic, and DPGNet privacy-oriented generated data on predictive utility, treatment-effect fidelity, robustness to alternative estimators, and local training-record proximity. Results: DPGNet and distilled data preserved the original financial-status treatment-effect structure more reliably than the adversarial and Gaussian Copula baselines. DPGNet preserved full direction and rank agreement across epsilon levels; epsilon = 10 produced the smallest non-original IPW and DML deviations, while epsilon = 1 and epsilon = 5 amplified several financial-status contrasts. Distilled data remained highly faithful but retained the strongest local training-record proximity signal. TabularGNet preserved qualitative directions with moderate attenuation, and Gaussian Copula compressed effect magnitudes. Conclusions: Predictive utility, privacy orientation, empirical disclosure signals, and causal fidelity diverged; generated student data require joint audits of direction, magnitude, overlap, and release-governance risk before decision use.

We revisit the fairness notion of disparate impact for synthetic data generation (SDG), that assesses whether the utility of generated records is the same across sensitive groups. Our approach departs from existing work on fair SDG, that address the problem of correcting for undue biases in the observed distribution, hence redefining SDG as learning a distribution that is not that of the real data. By contrast, non-disparate impact is notably achieved when the synthetic and real distributions are the same. We expose reasons why SDG may fail to reach that solution and discuss why approximation and estimation errors occur and can be disparate across groups. We notably look into the expressive power of SDG methods relative to distribution complexity, sampling errors due to group proportions, and estimation errors induced by differential privacy mechanisms. We illustrate cases of disparate impact on both artificial and real-world data, focusing on SDG methods that rely on probabilistic graphical models. We also introduce a strategy of learning group-wise SDG models, that constitutes a simple baseline for analyzing and in some settings mitigating cases of disparate impact.

We propose Conformal QoT, a policy-driven framework that combines statistically guaranteed QoT estimation with operational decision policies, enabling reliable lightpath-feasibility predictions under domain shift and improving accuracy from 92% to 99.6% on open datasets.

We derive the optimal quantizer of a real-valued random variable $W$ with distribution $P_W$ such that 1) the distribution of the quantization output $X$ that can take $k$ values follows any specified distribution $P_X$ over $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, and 2) the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) of estimating $W$ from $X$ is minimized. It is shown that the optimal quantizer takes the form $X=σ\big(F_{σ^{-1}(X)}^{-1}(F_W(W))\big)$, where $σ$ is the optimal permutation of $\{1,\ldots,k\}$ among all permutations to minimize the MMSE, and $F$ is the cumulative distribution function. When $P_W$ is uniform over an interval or $P_X$ is uniform over $\{1,\ldots,k\}$, the quantizer takes a simple form $X=F_{X}^{-1}(F_W(W))$. The concept of majorization plays a key role in the optimality proof. Specifying the output distribution is useful for designing quantizers with explicitly controlled output entropy, maximized mutual information between input and output, tailored output distribution to match channel input requirements for communication, and data anonymization.

Conditional generators provide a natural tool for controllable generation, including settings where the desired condition is a new composition of observed attributes or experimental factors. In many applications, especially in scientific domains, such models are attractive to explore conditions for which real samples are rare, expensive, or not yet observed. However, this creates a circularity for evaluation: standard conditional quality metrics require a reference target distribution, but in the extrapolative regime that distribution is unavailable by definition. We address this problem with a post-hoc, per-sample trust score for assessing conditional samples using only the training distribution. The score combines two estimable quantities: global realism, measuring compatibility with the real data manifold, and attribute-wise faithfulness, measuring whether a sample is closer to the requested attributes than to plausible alternatives. We show that the score can recover meaningful comparisons across extrapolated generations, under a mild coverage condition on the observed attributes. These comparisons enable effective filtering, ranking, and abstention of generations and can be used directly on off-the-shelf pretrained models. In biological imaging, selected samples preserve real morphological structure better and improve downstream predictive performance, while similar gains are observed on controlled vision benchmarks. Finally, we show how the score can be applied during generation, enabling abstention before full decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/berkerdemirel/faithful-cond-gen.

Synthetic healthcare data are widely proposed as privacy-preserving substitutes for real patient data, yet their evaluation remains dominated by statistical similarity and predictive performance that do not reflect clinical validity. We introduce a multi-dimensional evaluation framework grounded in epidemiology, assessing descriptive fidelity, clinical utility, and structural validity, corresponding to descriptive, predictive, and causal questions. We evaluate four representative generative paradigms - GAN-based, VAE-boosted, diffusion-based, and masked modelling - using PRIME-CVD, a 50,000-person cohort with known ground-truth structure. While all models reproduce marginal distributions, none simultaneously preserve subgroup structure, effect estimates, and dependency structure. Notably, models with strong distributional fidelity can exhibit poor calibration and distorted relationships, leading to unreliable inference. These results show that current evaluation practices can overestimate synthetic data quality and motivate domain-informed assessment based on the ability to support valid clinical and scientific conclusions.

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

Ambient clinical scribes increasingly combine Automatic Speech Recognition with Large Language Models to automate documentation. However, traditional metrics like Word Error Rate mask systemic safety degradation. We present a paired acoustic stress test to isolate the causal impact of noise on clinical reasoning. For the same dialogues, we inject diverse noise types while keeping the downstream model configuration frozen. Crucially, we uncover a dangerous disconnect between signal fidelity and clinical safety. Stationary ambient noise increased the Word Error Rate by a negligible 0.71 percentage points yet nearly doubled the rate of unsafe outputs. Our analysis reveals that minor acoustic perturbations can invert clinical meaning without substantially inflating error rates. Furthermore, we demonstrate a lightweight mitigation strategy that mitigates safety degradation under noisy conditions without requiring model fine tuning.

Dataset condensation aims to construct compact datasets from real data via synthesis or selection. However, existing approaches are ill-suited for diffusion model training: synthetic data generation often yields low-fidelity samples unsuitable for authentic modeling, while real subset selection typically fails to preserve the distributional geometry required by diffusion likelihood objectives. To address this, we propose to reformulate real subset selection as a geometry-aware distribution alignment problem. By incorporating one-sided partial optimal transport, our method selectively aligns a compact subset with the full data distribution while allowing unmatched mass in low-density regions, ensuring the preserved geometric structure necessary for effective diffusion model training. To further ensure distributional fidelity, we complement geometric alignment with lightweight feature-statistics and semantic consistency regularization. An efficient two-stage discrete optimization strategy is proposed to achieve this alignment objective. Extensive experiments across diffusion variants, subset sizes, image resolutions, and training rounds show that our method achieves superior fidelity and distributional coverage in diffusion model training. Codes are available at https://github.com/2018cx/GADC.

Urban trajectory generation is a fundamental task for transportation simulation, urban planning, and mobility analytics. However, systematic comparison across trajectory generation methods remains difficult because existing studies often rely on different datasets, preprocessing pipelines, trajectory representations, and evaluation metrics. This fragmentation makes it unclear whether reported performance differences arise from the generation mechanism itself or from inconsistent experimental protocols. To address this issue, we present CityTrajBench, a unified benchmark framework and protocol for city-scale vehicle trajectory generation. CityTrajBench standardizes data ingestion, trajectory normalization, feature construction, model adaptation, map-aware post-processing, model selection, and multi-level evaluation under a common setting. It supports heterogeneous generators, including statistical baselines, VAE-based, GAN-based, diffusion-based, and flow-matching-based models, and evaluates them on three real-world urban trajectory datasets. The benchmark measures global spatial realism, trip-level distribution fidelity, trajectory-level geometric similarity, conditional mobility consistency, and efficiency. Experiments reveal clear trade-offs across model families: DiffTraj is strongest on trajectory-level geometric fidelity, DiffRNTraj is competitive on structure-sensitive global realism, and TrajFlow provides a strong balance across realism, quality, conditional consistency, and efficiency. Meanwhile, a simple Markov baseline remains competitive on coarse-grained trip and local-movement statistics. These findings show that urban trajectory generation quality is inherently multi-objective, that no single model dominates all criteria equally, and that CityTrajBench provides a reproducible benchmark protocol and testbed for future research on urban mobility generation.

Generative modeling and self-supervised representation learning (SSL) optimize structurally different objectives: generative training rewards distributional fidelity, while SSL rewards semantic coherence. Yet recent work repeatedly finds that SSL features improve generative training, though the mechanism of this synergy remains unclear. Here, we study the benefits of SSL in generative modeling in the framework of one-step generation where the role of representation is explicit: frozen SSL features are used to match generated samples to real data. We use the Sinkhorn divergence in that feature space, providing a tractable surrogate for the Wasserstein distance, the population-level discrepancy approximated by Fréchet-style evaluation metrics (such as FID). We find that this objective becomes highly effective when computed in a semantically structured SSL feature space (a 39$\times$ reduction in ImageNet FID). We trace this behavior primarily to matching estimation: semantic SSL features that suppress nuisance reconstruction details induce a more compact geometry, making distribution matching more tractable. As a consequence, the best training SSL features need not match the features used by the evaluation metric. In particular, we show that using Inception as the feature extractor can improve FID while degrading matching stability and sample quality, revealing a form of metric hacking. Using extensive experiments on ImageNet, we identify which SSL feature families lead to best generation performance and show that matching stability is a quantitative criterion for selecting them. Code is available at https://github.com/Genentech/semantic-transport-generation.

Zeroth-order (black-box) optimization is applied when gradients are unavailable and objective evaluations rely on expensive simulations. In many such applications, the oracle fidelity is tunable: higher-accuracy queries reduce noise but incur higher computational costs. To capture this trade-off, we study an accuracy-aware wall-clock model where each query with fidelity $δ$ has a cost $c(δ)$, and we minimize the total time $T_{\mathrm{total}} = \sum_{k=1}^{N} c(δ_k)$, subject to a target accuracy constraint. We show how the choice of oracle type, noise model, and optimization scheme induces explicit wall-clock-optimal choices for the algorithmic parameters. For instance, we demonstrate that accelerated methods can be wall-clock inferior to non-accelerated schemes. Furthermore, we characterize the conditions under which a constant fidelity strategy is optimal in the Big-O sense. Our framework provides a unified methodology to translate convergence guarantees into practical fidelity and batching recommendations.

Evaluation in scientific reconstruction is dominated by pointwise metrics - RMSE, MAE, per-event resolution - under the implicit assumption that lower error means better reconstruction. We show that this assumption fails structurally for inverse problems with multimodal posteriors. By the law of total variance, point estimators trained to minimize MSE or MAE produce a marginal spectrum strictly narrower than the truth whenever the posterior has nonzero width. The resulting bias is independent of architecture, training, and dataset size, and it compresses precisely the spectral features - tails, modes, shapes - that downstream scientific measurements rely on. We propose a three-part evaluation protocol where each step targets a failure mode the others miss: per-event distributional accuracy via CRPS, population-level marginal accuracy via a spectrum-fidelity diagnostic, and uncertainty trustworthiness via coverage-based calibration. On a synthetic benchmark with an analytic posterior and on a realistic many-to-one inverse problem from particle physics, model rankings reverse between pointwise and distributional metrics, and calibration further separates architectures indistinguishable under CRPS. The evaluation protocol, not the model, determines the scientific conclusion.

Generative artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the supply side of training data: an increasing share of new tokens, images, and structured records is produced by previous-generation models rather than by human originators. Recursive training on such synthetic content induces a measurable and often irreversible loss of distributional fidelity, a phenomenon known as model collapse. We develop the first unified microeconomic theory of synthetic data markets under model collapse. We introduce the Synthetic Data Contamination Equilibrium (SDCE), prove existence and generic uniqueness, derive a welfare decomposition W = W_prod + W_cons - L_coll - L_info, establish a Wasserstein-gradient-flow mean-field collapse limit, prove an impossibility of information-constrained implementation, and obtain closed-form expressions for the welfare-maximizing provenance subsidy s* = KL(q||p)/(2 kappa) and the welfare-maximizing watermark strength w* = (1 - psi) KL(q||p)/(2 kappa psi). We prove an information-theoretic Cramer-Rao lower bound on any provenance estimator using only producer-side observations and show that the Provenance-Market Iterative Retraining (PMIR) algorithm attains this bound up to constants while converging to an epsilon-SDCE in O(epsilon^-2 log T) iterations. A reduced-form OLS estimation on a C4-synthetic benchmark over ten retraining generations yields a collapse-rate coefficient b-hat = 0.181 (HAC s.e. 0.024), within one standard error of the structural prediction 0.183. Calibrated experiments raise generation-ten model quality by 23.1 percent over the unregulated benchmark while lowering the 2-Wasserstein drift on a held-out diversity probe from 0.318 to 0.142. Scaling experiments over generations t in {1,...,10} recover a logarithmic-in-t collapse law log Q_t = log Q_0 - 0.183 t rho^2 with R^2 = 0.962.

Quantization can preserve predictive accuracy under low-bit deployment while silently breaking algorithmic recourse: an actionable change that flips a decision before quantization may fail after quantization, or become substantially more costly. We formalize counterfactual sensitivity under quantization through validity, cost, and direction stability, and introduce two metrics: Validity Drop (VD) and Counterfactual Recourse Gap (CRG) that reveal recourse failures invisible to accuracy. We propose Counterfactual-Faithful Quantization (CFQ), which trains quantizer parameters and mixed-precision bit allocation to preserve counterfactual behavior by enforcing the target outcome at teacher recourse points under a global bit budget. A margin-based analysis gives a sufficient condition for recourse transfer under bounded quantization perturbations. Experiments on Adult, German Credit, and COMPAS show that accuracy-matched baselines can significantly degrade recourse stability, while CFQ maintains accuracy and substantially improves VD and CRG across bit budgets.

Synthetic persona datasets cite alignment with official demographics as a basis for trust, yet downstream users consume them as joint structures across age, sex, region, occupation, education, name, and institutional status. Marginal alignment does not imply that these joints are preserved. We propose the Independence-Assumption Footprint (IAF), an audit primitive that operates on the attribute combinations a dataset card itself documents as treated independently. For each such combination, IAF compares the synthetic joint against an external official or institutional reference, using direct joint tables where available and rule-implied checks otherwise. Applied to NVIDIA Nemotron-Personas-Korea (one million Korean synthetic personas), IAF finds that NPK aligns with KOSIS marginals while three joints fail. The major-by-occupation distribution against the KEIS graduate universe carries a large conditional mismatch. The age profile of military service is institutionally inconsistent. Female representation in male-dominated occupations is substantially over-flattened toward parity, with the strict screening verdict mapping-dependent and age-robust under direct standardisation. A transferability demonstration across six further NPK locales finds locale-dependent rather than universal diagnostics, with reference-taxonomy cardinality confounding cross-locale flag counts. For synthetic personas used as silicon samples, marginal claims must therefore be paired with disclosure-anchored joint audits before reuse. The released audit artefacts (reference manifests, occupational crosswalks, derived metrics, reproducibility scripts) instantiate this protocol on the NPK family and are released for retargeting at other synthetic persona resources.

Holistic evaluation scores capture overall output quality but do not distinguish whether a model reproduced the structural form of a user's request from whether it preserved the user's specific intent. We propose a dimension-level intent fidelity evaluation framework, applied here through a structured prompt ablation study across 2,880 outputs spanning three languages, three task domains, and six LLMs, that separately measures structural recovery and intent fidelity for each semantic dimension. This framework reveals a systematic structural-fidelity split: among Chinese-language outputs with complete paired scores, 25.7% received perfect holistic alignment scores (GA=5) while exhibiting measurable dimensional intent deficits; among English-language outputs, this proportion rose to 58.6%. Human evaluation confirmed that these split-zone outputs represent genuine quality deficits and that dimensional fidelity scores track human judgements more reliably than holistic scores do. A public-private decomposition of 2,520 ablation cells characterises when models successfully compensate for missing intent and when they fail, while proxy annotation distinguishes prior inferability from default recoverability. A weight-perturbation experiment shows that moderate misalignment is typically absorbed, whereas severe dimensional inversion is consistently harmful. These findings demonstrate that dimension-level intent fidelity evaluation is a necessary complement to holistic assessment when evaluating LLM outputs for user-specific tasks.

Conformal prediction is often calibrated with a single pooled threshold, but this can hide cross-group heterogeneity in score distributions and distort group-wise coverage. We study this phenomenon through the population score distributions underlying split conformal calibration. First, we derive a conservation law and lower bound showing that pooled calibration incurs irreducible group-wise coverage distortion at a scale set by cross-group quantile heterogeneity. Second, we demonstrate that the two leading fairness definitions for conformal prediction, Equalized Coverage and Equalized Set Size, are fundamentally in tension. Third, we quantify the cost of moving between policies which treat groups separately or pool them. Experiments on synthetic and real data confirm the same bidirectional trade-off after finite-sample calibration. Our results show that, for the policy families studied here, calibration choice does not remove cross-group heterogeneity; it determines whether the resulting distortion appears in the coverage or size dimension, providing a principled lens for analyzing fairness-oriented calibration choices in practice.

Generative tabular augmentation is appealing in data-scarce domains, yet the prevailing focus on distributional fidelity does not reliably translate into better downstream models. We formalize a fidelity-utility gap: common generative objectives prioritize distributional plausibility, whereas augmentation succeeds only when injected samples reduce the current learner's held-out evaluation loss. This gap motivates learning not just how to generate, but what to generate and when to inject as training evolves. We propose TAP (Tabular Augmentation Policy), which couples diffusion inpainting with a lightweight, learner-conditioned policy to steer generation toward high-utility regions and controls safe injection via explicit gating and conservative windowed commitment. Under severe data scarcity, TAP consistently outperforms strong generative baselines on seven real-world datasets, improving classification accuracy by up to 15.6 percentage points and reducing regression RMSE by up to 32%.

We present Agentic Decentralized Knowledge Optimization (ADKO), a framework for collaborative black-box optimization across autonomous agents that achieves sample efficiency, privacy preservation, heterogeneous-objective handling, and communication efficiency. Each agent maintains a private Gaussian Process (GP) surrogate trained on local data and communicates only through knowledge tokens-compact, lossy summaries containing directional signals, advantage scores, and optional language-model (LM) insights-without sharing raw data or model parameters. ADKO unifies GP-Upper Confidence Bound (GP-UCB), parallel Bayesian optimization, decentralized learning, and LM-guided discovery. We provide the first formal analysis of dual information loss: token compression, quantified via mutual-information-based fidelity, and LM approximation error, decomposed into bias and stochastic noise. Our main result shows cumulative regret decomposes into GP error, LM bias, LM noise, and compression loss, with necessary and sufficient conditions for sublinear regret. We also propose fidelity-aware token pruning to preserve high-information tokens under memory budget. Experiments on neural architecture search and scientific discovery validate the theory and show consistent improvements over strong baselines.

This study presents the outcomes of the first Controllable Bokeh Rendering Challenge at NTIRE and highlights the most effective submitted methodologies. In total, 44 participants registered for the competition, of which 8 teams submitted valid solutions after the conclusion of the final test phase. All submissions were evaluated on unseen images, focusing on portraits and intricate subjects with complex and visually appealing bokeh phenomena. In addition to the first track focusing on established quantitative fidelity metrics, we conducted a qualitative user study with a panel of experts for a second track focusing on perceptual assessment. As this was the inaugural challenge on this topic, most of the participants focused on refining and extending the Bokehlicious baseline method.

Chaos arises in many complex dynamical systems, from weather to power grids, but is difficult to accurately model with data-driven methods such as machine learning emulators. While emulators are promising tools for accelerating simulations and solving inverse problems, they still struggle to learn chaotic dynamics, where sensitivity to initial conditions renders exact long-term forecasts infeasible, especially given noisy data. Recent work instead trains emulators to match the statistical properties of chaotic attractors, but these approaches often rely on handcrafted summary statistics or large, diverse multi-environment datasets. In this work, we propose a family of adversarial optimal transport objectives that can jointly learn high-quality summary statistics and a physically consistent emulator from a single noisy trajectory. We theoretically analyze and experimentally validate a Sinkhorn divergence formulation (2-Wasserstein) and a WGAN-style dual formulation (1-Wasserstein) of our approach. Numerical experiments across a variety of chaotic systems, including ones with high-dimensional spatiotemporal chaos, show that emulators trained using our proposed objectives have significantly improved long-term statistical fidelity.

Synthetic data generation offers promise for addressing data scarcity and privacy concerns in educational technology, yet practitioners lack empirical guidance for selecting between traditional resampling techniques and modern deep learning approaches. This study presents the first systematic benchmark comparing these paradigms using a 10,000-record student performance dataset. We evaluate three resampling methods (SMOTE, Bootstrap, Random Oversampling) against three deep learning models (Autoencoder, Variational Autoencoder, Copula-GAN) across multiple dimensions: distributional fidelity (Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance, Jensen-Shannon divergence), machine learning utility such as Train-on-Synthetic-Test-on-Real scores (TSTR), and privacy preservation (Distance to Closest Record). Our findings reveal a fundamental trade-off: resampling methods achieve near-perfect utility (TSTR: 0.997) but completely fail privacy protection (DCR ~ 0.00), while deep learning models provide strong privacy guarantees (DCR ~ 1.00) at significant utility cost. Variational Autoencoders emerge as the optimal compromise, maintaining 83.3% predictive performance while ensuring complete privacy protection. We also provide actionable recommendations: use traditional resampling for internal development where privacy is controlled, and VAEs for external data sharing where privacy is paramount. This work establishes a foundational benchmark and practical decision framework for synthetic data generation in learning analytics.

Real-time multimodal agents transport raw audio and screenshots using networking stacks designed for human receivers, which optimize for perceptual fidelity and smooth playout. Yet agent models act as event-driven processors with no inherent sense of physical time, consuming task-relevant semantics rather than reconstructing signals in real time. This fundamental difference shifts the transport goal from the technical problem of signal fidelity (Shannon-Weaver Level A) to the semantic problem of meaning preservation (Level B). This mismatch imposes significant overhead. In visual pipelines, screenshot upload accounts for over 60% of end-to-end action latency on constrained uplinks, and in voice pipelines, conventional transport carries massive redundancy, sending 43-64x more data than needed to maintain task accuracy. We present Sema, a semantic transport system that combines discrete audio tokenizers with a hybrid screen representation (lossless accessibility-tree or OCR text, plus compact visual tokens) and bursty token delivery that eliminates jitter buffers. In simulations under emulated WAN conditions, Sema reduces uplink bandwidth by 64x for audio and 130-210x for screenshots while preserving task accuracy within 0.7 percentage points of the raw baseline.

Automated simulator construction requires distributional fidelity, distinguishing it from generic code generation. We identify two failure modes in long-horizon LLM agents: contextual drift and optimization instability arising from conflating structural and parametric errors. We propose SOCIA-EVO, a dual-anchored evolutionary framework. SOCIA-EVO introduces: (1) a static blueprint to enforce empirical constraints; (2) a bi-level optimization to decouple structural refinement from parameter calibration; and (3) a self-curating Strategy Playbook that manages remedial hypotheses via Bayesian-weighted retrieval. By falsifying ineffective strategies through execution feedback, SOCIA-EVO achieves robust convergence, generating simulators that are statistically consistent with observational data. The code and data of SOCIA-EVO are available here: https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/SOCIA/tree/evo.

Synthetic tabular data generation addresses data scarcity and privacy constraints in a variety of domains. Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN), a recent foundation model for tabular data, has been shown capable of generating high-quality synthetic tabular data. However, TabPFN is autoregressive: features are generated sequentially by conditioning on the previous ones, depending on the order in which they appear in the input data. We demonstrate that when the feature order conflicts with causal structure, the model produces spurious correlations that impair its ability to generate synthetic data and preserve causal effects. We address this limitation by integrating causal structure into TabPFN's generation process through two complementary approaches: Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG)-aware conditioning, which samples each variable given its causal parents, and a partially directed acyclic graph (PDAG)-based strategy for scenarios with partial causal knowledge. We evaluate these approaches on controlled benchmarks and six CSuite datasets, assessing structural fidelity, distributional quality, and Average Treatment Effect (ATE) preservation. Across most settings, DAG-aware conditioning improves the quality and stability of synthetic data relative to vanilla TabPFN. Under partial causal knowledge, the oracle partially directed acyclic graph (oracle-PDAG), which orients only the edges into the colliders, shows moderate gains, while the benefit of a Completed Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (CPDAG) discovered from data depends on how well the causal structure is recovered. These results indicate that reliable causal structure, even partial, can be injected into TabPFN at inference time, without parameter updates, to improve synthetic data quality.