Wasserstein Distance

Score-based diffusion models are increasingly considered in settings where the underlying data distribution may differ from the training distribution, yet existing theoretical guarantees largely focus on the no-shift setting. In this work, we study robust score estimation under Wasserstein perturbations of a reference distribution. For the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck diffusion, we show that robust estimation decomposes into two fundamental components: the statistical cost of learning the reference distribution and the intrinsic cost of distribution shift. The latter scales quadratically with the Wasserstein radius, and this dependence is minimax optimal. We construct an explicit finite-sample estimator achieving the resulting robust minimax rate without knowing the shift radius. When the reference distribution lies on an unknown low-dimensional subspace, the statistical term adapts to the intrinsic dimension while the shift cost remains unchanged. Finally, we show that the same decomposition governs positive-time reverse sampling and obtain matching minimax guarantees in KL divergence. Together, these results characterize how finite data, intrinsic dimension, and distribution shift affect the robustness of score-based diffusion models.

Robust aggregation methods for federated learning quietly rest on a fragile assumption: that whoever shows up in a given round is a fair sample of the full population. In practice, they rarely are. When only a handful of clients participate per round, even a modest fraction of adversaries can dominate that sample and silently invalidate the finite-sample guarantees that coordinate-wise median, Krum, Bulyan, and trimmed mean all depend on. We introduce SWB-DM to address this directly. SWB treats each slice of a client update as a one-dimensional distribution, computes a trimmed Wasserstein barycenter across clients, and recovers coordinate identity via a medoid-based gauge-fixing step -- a heuristic we developed and do not claim it belongs to standard optimal-transport theory. DeMoA-style delayed momentum then caches updates across the full client population each round, decoupling robustness from whoever happened to be sampled. Trim ratio calibration is not cosmetic: under-trimming causes collapse at corruption levels a properly calibrated model survives. Across 448 CIFAR-10 configurations, plus CIFAR-100, FEMNIST, and a 500-client scalability run, we find several mechanistically distinct failure modes. Even-sample coordinate-wise median degrades to a deterministic wrong answer. Krum silently violates its own n greater than 2f+2 precondition and diverges without warning. Bulyan's n greater than or equal to 4f+3 threshold produces a sharp pass/fail boundary. On attacks, IPM defeats order-statistic defenses -- including SWB -- more reliably than ALIE, confirmed through delta-space measurements against a convergence bound. SWB-DM's cache carries a real warm-up cost, but extending all baselines to the same round budget shows its CIFAR-10 gains are disproportionately large. On CIFAR-100, FLTrust benefits more -- for reasons entirely unrelated to caching.

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) admits diffusion approximations that replace the complicated randomness of stochastic gradients by Gaussian noise, providing a powerful tool for understanding its dynamics and long-time behavior. We investigate whether an analogous approximation principle holds for optimization over probability measures, where the objective is a functional defined on the Wasserstein space P2. The nonlinear geometry and infinite-dimensional nature of P2 prevent a direct extension of the classical Euclidean theory. Using Lions differentiability, we lift the problem to a linear Hilbert space, where higher-order differential calculus becomes available. We then construct a Gaussian random-field approximation whose velocity field matches the mean and covariance of the original stochastic gradient. By exploiting this moment matching through higher-order Taylor expansions, we show that the Gaussian approximation captures the SGD dynamics with second-order weak accuracy. Our result provides a rigorous foundation for replacing sample-driven randomness by analytically tractable Gaussian fluctuations in stochastic optimization over probability measures.

We develop Gaussian approximation bounds in higher-order Wasserstein distance $W_p$, $p\geq2$, for sums of multivariate martingale differences generated by a uniformly ergodic Markov chain. Under an $L^{(2+η)p}$-moment condition with $η>0$, we establish the explicit bound $O\left( p^3 \|A\|_4^2 + pd^{1/4}\|A\|_2^{1/2}\|A\|_4^2 \right)$ where $A\in\mathbb{R}^n$ collects the $L^{(2+η)p}$-sizes of the $n$ individual martingale increments. In the balanced-increment regime where the individual increments have comparable sizes of order $n^{-1/2}$, it yields the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ Gaussian approximation rate for fixed $p$ and $d$. Consequently, we also obtain the first optimal $O(n^{-1/2})$ $W_p$ Gaussian approximation rate for multivariate additive functionals of uniformly ergodic Markov chains. Our analysis develops two techniques for addressing the interplay between higher-order Wasserstein distance and temporal dependence. First, building on the Ornstein--Uhlenbeck relative-score approach of Fang and Koike (2023), we formulate the bound in terms of antisymmetric Stein couplings while retaining the conditional tensor structure. Second, we develop a refresh-then-maximal coupling that combines an independent first-step resampling, which preserves the desired Stein identity, with a subsequent maximal coupling that provides effective control of the coupling increment. These tools may be useful more broadly for Gaussian approximation under temporal dependence.

Curriculum learning is governed by several coupled design choices---how difficulty is defined, how examples are ordered, how much exposure each level receives, and how quickly training moves across levels---making it hard to isolate what actually helps. We present Wasserstein curriculum paths, a simple transport-based framework that decouples these factors by representing curricula as trajectories of training distributions over discrete difficulty levels. Across a calibrated synthetic suite with 12 tasks and 33 difficulty axes, we use this framework to isolate the effects of ordering, matched exposure, endpoint smoothness, and pacing under fixed training budgets. We find that curriculum effects are strongly context-dependent: no single strategy dominates across tasks, difficulty axes, and budgets, and curricula mainly change where a fixed budget is spent most effectively. Within this framework, easy-to-hard ordering improves hard-level performance relative to exposure-matched static sampling, showing that the benefit is not explained by cumulative exposure alone. We further show that endpoint smoothness and pacing substantially affect where along the difficulty spectrum a curriculum is effective. Finally, we show that the same transport view naturally supports extensions to learned pacing through geometry and to structured difficulty spaces beyond one-dimensional orderings.

The computation of the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) barycenter of an ensemble of positive definite matrices arises throughout machine learning, optimal transport, and quantum information. Riemannian gradient descent (RGD) at unit step size -- the fixed-point iteration used in practice -- converges rapidly, yet existing analyses present a dichotomy: unit-step guarantees carry worst-case exponential dependence on the dimension, while dimension-independent guarantees require small step sizes that forfeit the empirical speed. We resolve this dichotomy, not by improving the guarantees for unit-step RGD, but by proposing a Projected RGD algorithm that achieves dimension-independent linear convergence at unit step size. The achieved rate, $(1 - κ^{-3/2})$, where $κ$ is the condition number of the ensemble, also polynomially improves on the best small-step guarantee ($κ^{3/2}$ versus $κ^{5/2}$ iteration complexity). The crux is a novel Projection Lemma: clipping the eigenvalues of a positive matrix to an interval $[α, β]$ is the closed-form, non-expansive (1-Lipschitz) BW-metric projection onto the set $\{S : αI \leq S \leq βI\}$ -- a statement which, unlike its known one-sided counterpart, does not follow from convexity. The projection is moreover free: it reuses an eigendecomposition the next iteration must perform in any case, so the projected and unprojected iterations cost the same per step. The same analysis covers the invariant matrix projection problem of Brahmachari et al. (2025), whose fixed-point algorithm we identify as unit-step RGD on a totally geodesic submanifold, thereby extending the dimension-independent guarantee to that setting verbatim.

Prompt tuning provides a parameter-efficient way to adapt foundation models (FMs) by freezing the pretrained backbone and updating only a small set of learnable prompts. This property makes prompt tuning especially suitable for decentralized federated learning (DFL), where exchanging full-model updates can be prohibitively expensive. However, prompt tuning in DFL introduces new challenges. Prompt sets learned from heterogeneous local data may not be index-wise aligned, making standard decentralized averaging unsuitable. In addition, the algorithm should be theoretically guaranteed to achieve consensus and make progress toward the shared objective. In this work, we provide the first study of prompt tuning in DFL. We formulate decentralized prompt tuning as a Wasserstein-based optimization problem over prompt measures, which captures the set-valued structure of prompts. We then propose D-FROST, an optimal-transport-based (OT-based) decentralized prompt-tuning algorithm that merges neighborhood prompts into compact representative prompt sets through transportation-based matching. We further analyze D-FROST by bounding the Wasserstein consensus error across clients, and establishing convergence of the network-level prompt barycenter to a neighborhood of stationarity. Experiments under heterogeneous client data demonstrate the effectiveness of D-FROST for decentralized prompt tuning.

This paper introduces the Sierpiński-Knopp (SK) Wasserstein distance, a fast metric between persistence diagrams. The SK-Wasserstein distance, denoted $d_{\mathrm{SK}}$, maps diagram points and their diagonal projections to the unit interval via the Sierpiński-Knopp space-filling curve on the upper diagonal triangle. The encoded point sets are then efficiently matched via one-dimensional optimal assignment, in $O(N\log N)$ steps, yielding an explicit diagonal-aware point assignment between the two input persistence diagrams. We show that the SK-Wasserstein distance controls the classical $2$-Wasserstein distance between diagrams, admits an explicit isometric embedding into a Hilbert space, and induces a positive-definite Gaussian kernel, making the resulting geometry directly compatible with Euclidean and kernel-based learning methods. A tighter surrogate dissimilarity, noted $W_Γ$, is also introduced based on the point assignments along the curve. Experiments on 12 scientific collections comprising 227 diagrams show median per-collection speedup of $d_{\mathrm{SK}}$ over state-of-the-art approximations of $W_2$ is $626\times$, while the aggregate speedup over the full benchmark is $2100\times$. Average-linkage partitions obtained from $d_{\mathrm{SK}}$ and $W_Γ$ each exactly match the corresponding $W_2$ partition on 8 of the 12 collections. Hilbert $k$-means and Gaussian spectral clustering, both based on $d_{\mathrm{SK}}$, achieve mean adjusted Rand indices (ARI) of $0.756$ and $0.800$, respectively, with respect to the benchmark reference partitions, compared to $0.750$ obtained by average linkage on $W_2$. The Gaussian $d_{\mathrm{SK}}$ kernel supports other kernel-based analysis tasks, as illustrated by its use for contiguous segmentation of ordered diagram collections in our experiments.

Generative data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, yet its theoretical effect on downstream generalization remains poorly understood. In this work, we develop a statistical framework for conditional generative augmentation and analyze its impact on classification risk. We formalize augmentation as a distribution-mixing process and show that the resulting risk distortion is controlled by both the augmentation strength and the class-conditional Wasserstein discrepancy between real and generated distributions. We further derive a capacity-dependent generalization bound based on Rademacher complexity, revealing an explicit trade-off between hypothesis complexity, augmentation intensity, and generative fidelity. Empirically, we evaluate the framework on binary and multiclass imbalanced classification tasks using Conditional GAN and Conditional WGAN-GP augmentation. Across datasets, CWGAN-GP consistently achieves lower Wasserstein discrepancies than CGAN, indicating improved distributional fidelity. However, improved fidelity does not necessarily translate into superior classification performance, with classical oversampling methods often remaining competitive. These findings support the central theoretical prediction that augmentation reliability is governed by distributional approximation error rather than predictive performance alone. Overall, this work establishes generative augmentation as a distributional perturbation process whose reliability can be quantified through Wasserstein-based measures and supported by finite-sample generalization guarantees. The proposed framework provides a principled foundation for evaluating synthetic data quality beyond classification accuracy alone.

Given a dataset where a portion of the samples are contaminated, our goal is to recover the underlying clean population distribution. To this end, we propose Wasserstein Filtering (WF), a novel sample selection framework that discards a fraction of suspicious samples and estimates the target distribution using the empirical measure of the remaining data. The core insight is to select a subset of samples whose empirical distribution maximizes its Wasserstein distance to the fully contaminated empirical distribution, thereby preferentially isolating and removing geometrically influential outliers. To render this optimization computationally tractable, we introduce three algorithms: a marginal screening scheme, SinkMarg, and two joint optimization algorithms, SinkWF and SlicedWF, leveraging entropic optimal transport and sliced Wasserstein approximations, respectively. On the theoretical front, we introduce the Far Exclusion and Local Projection (FELP) contamination model, which characterizes corruptions consisting of well-separated outliers and locally indistinguishable perturbations. Under this model, we prove that the WF estimator achieves minimax optimality over distribution families with bounded covariance. Extensive numerical experiments on synthetic datasets, benchmark anomaly detection suites, and robust generative learning with diffusion models demonstrate that WF serves as a highly practical, model-agnostic preprocessing tool. It delivers competitive outlier detection performance and provides substantial downstream benefits for generative modeling under heavy contamination.

Clustering is a fundamental class of data analysis techniques with the most important representatives being centroid-based methods like $k$-means. Such methods are strongly connected to quantization problems, which aim to approximate general probability measures with discrete ones. For example, $k$-means corresponds to quantization with respect to the Wasserstein distance. While Wasserstein quantization clusters points within a fixed space, this paper studies Gromov-Wasserstein (GW) quantization, which additionally aims at clustering the ambient geometry of the space. We show existence of solutions to the GW quantization problem and give a characterization that justifies an analogue to the $k$-means algorithm (Lloyd's algorithm) to approximate them numerically. We further calculate the quantization rate for usual Euclidean geometries that are used in the GW context, and relate it to standard Wasserstein quantization rates. Finally, numerical experiments show that GW quantization opens up many modeling possibilities beyond normal clustering methods (e.g., for geodesic distances of 3D shapes or structured pruning of neural networks) and that the introduced algorithm leads to useful numerical solutions with approximation quality often in line with theoretically optimal rates.

Robotic localization under changing sensing conditions can suffer from biased errors and miscalibrated covariances. We present WRAP, an adapter-agnostic Wasserstein-robust plug-in for nonlinear extended Kalman filter (EKF) and error-state Kalman filter (ESKF) stacks. A causal module supplies time-varying effective process and measurement statistics; a mean-preserving Wasserstein local update then computes least-favorable covariances and a robust gain without changing the propagation model, residual, or retraction. This separates mean adaptation from covariance robustification and uses distinct radii for propagation and sensing. On 18 UWB--IMU sequences held out from adapter training, adapter-only and WRAP reduce mean 3-D position RMSE by $19.8\%$ and $27.4\%$ relative to the nominal ESKF; an isotropic ablation reaches $19.5\%$, linking the incremental gain to directional process-covariance redistribution. An in-sample GNSS--INS study shows that mean adaptation provides most of the accuracy gain, while DR improves consistency and mitigates over-tightened classical covariance estimates. The robust solve takes 0.05 ms for UWB and 2.92 ms for GNSS on a Jetson Orin Nano.

We introduce conditional cylindrical neural networks for approximating functionals of conditional laws in McKean-Vlasov equations with common noise. Fourier moments of the initial law and truncated signatures of the time augmented common noise are mapped by a mixture density network to a Gaussian mixture approximation of the conditional law. A cylindrical neural network then evaluates the target functional through analytic integrals against this predicted measure. Rough path well posedness and stability provide a conditional law map that is continuous in the initial distribution and the rough driver and agrees almost surely with the classical conditional law at the Itô Brownian lift. Combining this continuity with Fourier separation, signature uniqueness, Wasserstein density of Gaussian mixtures, and neural universal approximation, we prove an $L^2$ universal approximation theorem for continuous square integrable functionals. The numerical study implements the resulting two stage procedure on six examples, including non Gaussian initial laws, nonlinear drift, multiplicative common noise, and a two dimensional state. Independent particle references are used when no closed form law is available. The learned conditional law and functional approximations consistently improve on the empirical particle plug in, and additional experiments examine feature sensitivity, training from one terminal observation per common noise scenario, and Itô--Stratonovich consistency.

Quantized Neural Networks~(QNN) with low-bitwidth data have proven promising in efficient storage and computation on edge devices. To mitigate accuracy degradation while maximizing speedup, layer-wise mixed-precision quantization~(MPQ) becomes a popular solution. However, existing algorithms for exploring MPQ schemes are limited in flexibility and efficiency. Comprehending the complex impacts of different MPQ schemes on post-training quantization and quantization-aware training results is a challenge for conventional methods. Furthermore, an end-to-end framework for the optimization and deployment of MPQ models is missing in existing work. To address these challenges, we propose the MiCo framework, a holistic MPQ exploration and deployment framework for edge AI applications. The framework adopts a novel optimization algorithm to search for accuracy-optimal quantization configurations under strict latency constraints. We further extended the framework to MiCoPro, which introduces a robust Hardware-Aware Proxy (HAP) model to enhance prediction accuracy and hardware versatility. By leveraging target-specific latency modeling, MiCoPro enables rapid exploration and direct deployment from PyTorch models to bare-metal C code. We demonstrate the versatility of our framework on both the BitFusion accelerator and SIMD-extended RISC-V processors, achieving up to 40% of latency reduction with less than 3% of accuracy drop.

The development of deep learning over the past decade has revolutionized medical imaging segmentation, allowing the extraction of precise descriptors from large volumes to characterize pathologies. Data augmentation is a technique widely regarded as a way to improve model training. It includes simple transformations like spatial operations or intensity modifications, but also more advanced synthesis techniques. Their goal is to generate new realistic samples from an existing dataset to diversify the images used during training. Among them, several propose different mixing strategies to combine real samples. However, one of their major shortcomings is to yield limited variability in terms of generated lesion shapes and locations. In this work, we introduce a novel image synthesis method, called OTLesMix, that leverages Wasserstein barycenter and optimal transport plan to generate realistic and diverse samples. We evaluated our method on three brain lesion segmentation tasks, on which it improves the Dice score compared to a model trained without synthetic data by 2.9 to 6.6 points, and outperforms state-of-the-art mix-based methods.

We provide new estimates in Wasserstein distance for the asymptotic bias of the unadjusted Langevin algorithm, in the classical setting of log-smooth strongly log-concave measures. Our bound implies a Wasserstein mixing time of order $κ\sqrt{d}/\varepsilon$, where $κ$ is the condition number, $d$ is the dimension, and $\varepsilon$ is the target precision: this improves by a factor of $\sqrt{d}/\varepsilon$ over the previous state-of-the-art results.

Normally the statistical mechanics of learning treats constraints on weight distributions as restrictions that shrink the space of possible solutions. Therefore, it reduces model capacity. In this paper we would like to take a contrary approach, which, however, is based on the earlier work on distribution-constrained perceptrons. Rather than treating a prescribed weight distribution as a mere restriction, we propose that it defines the intrinsic geometry upon which learning naturally unfolds. We formulate both deep neural networks and variational quantum circuits as gradient flows on a product of Wasserstein manifolds -- one classical Wasserstein space for each layer and one quantum Wasserstein space for the circuit parameters. Within this geometry, the capacity reduction, which was previously associated with distributional constraints, appears as the metric structure of the constraint manifold itself. We develop a hierarchical mean-field description for deep networks, extend the framework to the quantum setting using the quantum Wasserstein distance of order 1, and introduce two such practical algorithms, Hierarchical DisCo-SGD and Quantum DisCo, that follow approximate geodesics on the manifold of the product itself. Experiments on teacher-student problems, standard image classification tasks, and small variational quantum classifiers show that respecting these distributional geometries improves generalization, stabilizes training, and reduces the severity of barren plateaus compared with unconstrained and purely norm-based baselines. This approach firstly reframes structural constraints as geometric priors and suggests a route for incorporating biological, spectral, or hardware-derived distributional information into both learning systems, viz., classical and quantum learning.

We derive finite-sample generalization bounds for Transformers trained with dynamic programming recursions. Building on the doubly lifted, measure-valued formulation of Transformer dynamics, we view data sets as probability laws on pairs of empirical input-output measures, allowing us to interpret the training problem as a finite-horizon Markovian control problem. We then analyze a quantized model, derived by quantizing the state, action, and measure-state spaces, and derive explicit finite-sample generalization bounds using concentration inequalities for empirical laws on finite metric spaces together with a Lipschitz stability estimate for the value function. These bounds are transferred to the base model at the cost of an explicit approximation error. Finally, we show that the same machinery yields a distributionally robust control formulation of the training problem, connecting Transformer generalization to Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization.

When computing sub/super-level-set persistent homology (PH), the effect of noise may introduce millions of (short-lived) topological generators, presenting an obstacle to both the computation of PH of large 3D images, and any analysis of PH that incorporates the number of generators. As such, it is often necessary to denoise the data before computing its PH. We analyze the PH of synthetic 3D images of porous media in the presence of spatially uncorrelated noise, and perform a comparative analysis of various topological measures (e.g. bottleneck distance, Wasserstein distance, persistence statistics and persistence images) to assess their robustness to both noise and the denoising process (i.e. adding spatially uncorrelated Gaussian noise, and denoising by either a Gaussian convolution or a machine learning approach).

Medical image segmentation models require both high accuracy and lightweight design to accommodate real-world medical applications. The deployment of these models on resource-limited medical platforms remains a significant challenge due to their high computational and parameter requirements. Existing pruning methods for model compression mostly overlook the intrinsic connections and similarity between the internal structures of complex deep neural networks. As a result, compressed models may not effectively retain the basic features of the pretrained network. To solve this problem, we propose a hierarchical clustering compression method for medical image segmentation models (MIS-HCC). This approach employs hierarchical clustering to partition channels and fuse their parameters efficiently. Specifically, it leverages the Wasserstein distance to represent similarity of channels within layers of pre-trained network, forming a similarity matrix that guides the clustering process. Channels within each cluster are then fused to produce a compressed network. Experimental results on three medical image datasets application demonstrate that MIS-HCC outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in both accuracy and compression efficiency, offering an effective solution for deploying medical image segmentation models on resource-limited medical platforms.

We study distributionally robust linear chance-constrained problems in which uncertainty is modeled by a Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Finite-support distributionally robust (FDR) formulations, widely used in data-driven robust optimization, robustify over empirical mixture support points and therefore primarily stress-test the fitted nominal mixture. This can be insufficient when service reliability depends on structural misspecification of the nominal mixture-support parameters. To address this limitation, we describe the ambiguity set of distributions by developing a novel formulation of a Wasserstein-2 metric that uses the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) metric over probability measures with finite second moments. Unlike FDR, which generally sets finitely many empirical support points a priori, the proposed ambiguity set allows the worst-case distribution to endogenously determine both how many mixture components receive mass and where their means and covariances lie within a continuous support. For the resulting ambiguity set, under mild regularity conditions, we prove strong duality for the inner worst-case chance-constraint problem and derive its semi-infinite reformulation. We then develop an adaptive cutting-surface algorithm, which endogenously determines the locations of mixture components receiving mass, and the mean and covariances of the Gaussian distributions at these locations. The algorithm attains any prescribed optimality gap in finitely many iterations, while a block-alternating local search identifies new components. A case study using the electric-vehicle charging-station energy-allocation problem demonstrates the framework's practical value in achieving any reliability targets. CDR also induces structural changes in energy allocations, unlike FDR, whose allocations remain close to the nominal solution.

Linear Independent Component Analysis (ICA) recovers jointly independent source signals from their linear mixtures. To achieve this, classical ICA algorithms attempt to maximize non-Gaussianity, measured by negentropy, which is linked to independence by information theory. Because exact negentropy optimization is intractable, they rely on proxy contrast functions, such as fourth-order cumulants, and parametric log-likelihoods. We propose instead to measure non-Gaussianity using the squared Wasserstein distance $W_2^2$ to a standard Gaussian. We prove that the Wasserstein distance between a standard normal distribution and linear projections of the data is maximized when the projection recovers an independent component. Based on this observation, we propose the OT-ICA algorithm which finds this projection by gradient-based optimization. Empirical evaluation on simulated data shows that OT-ICA outperforms proxy-based methods for different distributions of the latent variables. Application to EEG artifact removal and econometric price discovery confirm OT-ICA can be used for applied ICA tasks without distributional assumptions.

Predict-then-optimize systems usually compress uncertainty into a point forecast and then solve a downstream optimization problem as if the forecast were reliable. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers protection against misspecification, but the ambiguity set is often centered at historical samples and uses a fixed radius. We propose \emph{learned predictive ambiguity sets} (LPAS): a deep contextual model outputs a finite nominal scenario distribution, a state-dependent Wasserstein radius, and optionally an anisotropic ground metric. These outputs define a contextual ambiguity set that feeds a DRO decision layer. The radius is trained by a combination of conditional quantile calibration, size regularization, and downstream decision loss, so that robustness is adaptive rather than globally fixed. We derive the finite dual form used by the decision layer, present a staged training algorithm, and evaluate the method on distributionally robust portfolio optimization with 20 S&P 500 constituents from 2018--2026. The proposed method substantially improves over equal-weight, predict-then-optimize, and historical Wasserstein DRO baselines, achieving 26.28% annualized return, Sharpe ratio 1.30, final wealth 1.61, and lower tail loss than a deep fixed-radius DRO baseline while using a smaller average radius. The results show that learned ambiguity radii can recover most of the performance of strong fixed-radius DRO while reducing unnecessary conservatism and improving regime adaptivity.

Weighted empirical measures on compact manifolds arise in importance sampling, particle approximations, posterior summaries, quadrature, and representation learning. Standard weight-only summaries, such as ordinary effective sample size, ignore the geometry of the support. We introduce heat-kernel entropy profiles, a multiscale summary that diffuses weighted atoms by intrinsic heat flow and tracks nonuniformity across scales. For order-two Rényi entropy, the profile is computable from pairwise heat-kernel overlaps and yields a geometric effective sample size that discounts nearby or duplicate particles while matching ordinary effective sample size for well-separated particles. We prove monotonicity, small- and large-scale asymptotics, deterministic-weight consistency, and a bounded-ratio self-normalized importance-sampling extension for compact manifolds without boundary. On spheres, the unlogged profile decomposes into spherical-harmonic energies that recover mean-direction, von Mises-Fisher-type, and Bingham-type summaries. Sphere-based experiments show that the profile reveals antipodal, girdle, multimodal, and duplicate-particle structure missed by weight-only and first-moment spherical summaries.

We study the infinite-width Gaussian-process limit of random neural networks through the lens of tensor programs, and we provide a quantitative convergence theory in Wasserstein distance. Our main result gives explicit finite-width error bounds, of order inverse square-root of the widths between finite-network executions and their Gaussian-process limits. The framework is architecture-agnostic and covers feed-forward models together with weight-sharing schemes relevant for recurrent and transformer-type architectures.

Reconstructing population dynamics is a central problem in the physical and data sciences. Often, the dynamics are modeled as a Wasserstein gradient flow (WGF): a curve of distributions driven by an energy functional. Though there are multiple mathematical characterizations of a WGF, the dominant algorithmic approach relies on the Jordan--Kinderlehrer--Otto (JKO) scheme. JKO-based methods are inflexible to time discretisation and require solving costly optimal transport problems. We take a residual approach, enforcing the continuity equations via a non-negative loss function whose minimum is the WGF. Combined with a data-fitting divergence, this gives a single global objective. This perspective unifies several existing methods and leads to a new particle-based method, stitching, that is simulation-free and robust to large gaps between observations. We demonstrate that the stitching method achieves state-of-the-art performance across trajectory inference benchmarks. For code see github.com/BasisResearch/wasserstein-residuals.

The Sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance has emerged as a computationally attractive alternative to the Wasserstein distance by leveraging one-dimensional optimal transport along random projections. Standard estimators of the SW distance rely on Monte Carlo averages of one-dimensional Wasserstein distances computed via quantile functions, which require sorting projected samples and access to full datasets. In this work, we introduce a new class of estimators for the Sliced Wasserstein distance based on cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of projected measures, that avoid sorting and scale via massive dataset parallelism. This class includes several estimators, some of them being indexed by hyperparameters controlling their variance or smoothness. We show that they are especially well suited to scenarios in which CDFs are more tractable than quantile functions, such as mixtures of Gaussians, and moreover that they are also naturally compatible with federated learning, since CDFs of projected data can be computed and aggregated locally without requiring the exchange of raw samples.

This paper examines how metric adjustments to Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) can enhance its effectiveness as a visual tool for pattern recognition. The distance under consideration, referred to as Max-D-SW, is an adjustment of the Max-Sliced Wasserstein distance. In contrast to the original formulation, which optimizes over single unit directions, Max-D-SW aggregates contributions over orthonormal bases. This modification provides a clear numerical advantage in MDS outcomes, particularly when applied to heavy-tailed distributions. We also establish sample-complexity bounds showing that Max-D-SW remains statistically tractable, with rates comparable to those of its max-sliced counterpart. Moreover, we show that a better sample complexity for a metric does not necessarily translate into better performance when the metric is used as an input for MDS.

Counterfactual explanations (CFs) help understand machine learning models by identifying minimal input changes that would lead to alternative model outcomes. Recent work demonstrates their utility for reconstructing black-box models, enabling third-party auditing of opaque decision systems for fairness and accountability. Still, CF-based reconstruction may suffer from decision boundary shifts, overfitting, and restrictive assumptions requiring online query access to target platforms. We propose REconstruction via Counterfactual-Aware waSserstein opTimization (RECAST) under limited data and restricted access, a behavioral surrogate model based on Wasserstein barycentric prototypes. Our approach addresses decision boundary shifts by incorporating CFs as informative, though less representative, samples for both classes, maintaining high surrogate fidelity in low-sample regimes without requiring online access during reconstruction. To enhance fairness auditing, our method enables systematic group fairness diagnostics. Experiments on real-world datasets and various setups show that RECAST effectively achieves high fidelity and query efficiency, as well as stable results even when the access is limited and noisy.

Optimizing functionals over the space of probability measures is now ubiquitous in machine learning. A widely used approach is to perform the optimization directly over the Wasserstein space, but many objective functionals of practical interest are non-convex along Wasserstein geodesics, making the analysis of standard first-order methods challenging. In this work, we study a class of objectives over the Wasserstein space that admit a difference-of-convex (DC) decomposition and we lift the classical convex-concave procedure (CCCP) to this setting. Under smoothness and strong convexity assumptions on the convex components of the decomposition, we prove almost stationarity along the iterates of the resulting algorithm. Our main focus is on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and the Energy Distance (ED) functionals, for which we develop explicit Wasserstein DC decompositions, and establish local convergence of the scheme under mild assumptions. Empirically, we show that well-chosen DC decompositions yield faster and more stable convergence than Wasserstein gradient descent on these MMD objectives.

We study the stability of a classical family of metrics defined over functions' Gaussian scale-space representations, focusing on the comparison of images (functions of two variables). These metrics have precedents both in harmonic analysis, specifically the theory of Besov spaces, and in classical methods of image processing; special cases are also known to be metrically equivalent to certain Wasserstein distances. We quantify these metrics' robustness to geometric deformations, and introduce rotationally-invariant versions that are stable to changes in angle when comparing tomographic projections. We also describe computationally efficient algorithms for evaluating the metrics from finite samples, and prove their robustness to additive noise. The results are illustrated through numerical experiments.

Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) based on electroencephalography (EEG) enables direct interaction between the brain and external environments and has significant applications in assistive technologies, medical rehabilitation, and entertainment. Recently, EEG decoding methods based on Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) learning have demonstrated superior performance. However, these methods typically employ basic network architectures and do not explicitly capture local relationships between EEG signals. This limitation is problematic for EEG signals due to their inherently low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR). Moreover, most existing Riemannian manifold-based methods are restricted to specific metrics. The most widely used is the Affine-Invariant Metric (AIM). However, it has a quadratic dependency on the SPD matrices and cannot handle ill-conditioned SPD matrices, which hinders the effectiveness of networks. In contrast, the Bures-Wasserstein Metric (BWM) exhibits linear dependence on SPD matrices and demonstrates superior performance for ill conditioning. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Riemannian self-attention network based on the BWM. Additionally, the recently introduced power-deformed generalized Bures-Wasserstein metric reveals a nonlinear relationship between SPD matrices and matrix power deformation. This metric provides a more nuanced representation of the geometric structure of the SPD manifold. Consequently, we extend our model to a learnable version. For simplicity, we refer to it as GBWAtt. Experimental results on three EEG benchmarking datasets validate the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method. The code is available at https://github.com/jissc/GBWAtt.

The space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb{R}^d$) of probability measures with finite second moment carries a natural geometry: the quadratic Wasserstein distance W_2 makes it a complete metric space and, following Otto, a (formal) Riemannian manifold whose geodesics are the optimal-transport interpolations. On this manifold, the gradient flow of the free energy F(rho) = KL(rho || π) is exactly the Fokker-Planck equation, and its implicit-Euler discretization is the JKO scheme. This is the geometry underlying diffusion models: the forward process descends the free energy, and each denoising step realizes one JKO step, which recovers DDPM, DDIM, NCSN/SMLD, and Energy Matching; this is one scheme, not separate theories. The same manifold supports a second variational principle. Its geodesics - the minimum-action curves of the Benamou-Brenier formula - are precisely the optimal-transport paths that Flow Matching learns. Fixing both endpoints and following the geodesic, generation becomes a deterministic ODE along a straight line, hence far fewer sampling steps. Placing both families of models on one manifold makes their relationship exact: diffusion follows a free-energy gradient flow, an initial-value problem; optimal-transport Flow Matching follows a Wasserstein geodesic, a boundary-value problem. The two reach the same endpoints along different paths.

Deep generative models reproduce the observational distribution of their training data, inheriting any spurious associations it contains. A common source is an unobserved confounder that shapes both an attribute the user wants to control at sampling time and an attribute expected to vary in response. Existing causal generative approaches resolve the resulting ambiguity by imposing structural assumptions strong enough to single out one interventional distribution; in image domains, such assumptions are rarely warranted, and the data is generally consistent with a set of distinct causal mechanisms -- a feasible region of interventional distributions. We propose CauVaDE (Causal Variational Deep Embedding), built on a canonical augmented SCM in which the unobserved confounder collapses, without loss of generality, into a discrete latent cluster of bounded support while continuous variation is absorbed into independent noises. We prove that this canonical class is dense, in both observational and interventional Wasserstein distance, in the class of augmented SCMs compatible with a given causal diagram, and instantiate it as a mixture variational autoencoder whose cluster variable plays the role of the canonical confounder. An entropy regularizer with weight $γ$ on the cluster posterior then traces a family of candidate causal effects that fit the observational data to comparable likelihood while spanning the feasible region. Experiments on image data benchmarks show that CauVaDE produces diverse interventional samples and improves FID against an unconfounded reference.

Offline policy learning has received growing attention in causal inference. The primary objective is to learn a policy (individualized treatment rule) as a mapping from covariates to treatment that maximizes the empirical welfare defined as the mean of scalar-valued potential outcomes. In this paper, we study offline policy learning with distribution-valued outcomes, where each potential outcome is a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}$ and the reward is defined through a utility functional applied to the Wasserstein barycenter of induced outcome distributions. We establish statistical guarantees for the policy learning framework based on both Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) and Doubly Robust (DR) estimators. By handling the challenging uniform deviation over the product of the combinatorial policy class and the infinite-dimensional quantile domain, we prove that the finite-sample regret has leading dependence $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{\mathrm{N\text{-}dim}(Π)/N})$. In the one-dimensional Wasserstein setting and under the stated regularity conditions, the leading regret rate is still governed by the policy-class complexity. Moreover, we provide a minimax lower bound establishing the sharpness of the leading dependence on $N$ and $\mathrm{N\text{-}dim}(Π)$.

Online learning in non-stationary streams is often formulated as tracking a point estimate, but many applications require predicting the full data-generating distribution. We study online distributional prediction under drift and adversarial corruption. Our approach represents each candidate law through a latent cluster geometry: a variable-size configuration of centers that organizes probability mass and induces a predictive distribution. A Gibbs quasi-posterior over these configurations yields an online predictor by posterior averaging, and the resulting variable-dimensional posterior can be sampled with reversible-jump MCMC. The method therefore avoids specifying a parametric streaming law while retaining a structured latent space for uncertainty, regularization, and comparison. We evaluate performance by cumulative Wasserstein-1 regret against the time-varying true law. The analysis separates two effects: corruption perturbs the loss-based posterior update, whereas drift makes long-horizon posterior memory stale. We address the latter with a restarted variant that temporally localizes the same quasi-Bayesian update. The resulting high-probability bounds decompose into a PAC-Bayesian complexity term, a corruption-sensitive posterior perturbation term, and a dynamic optimal-transport term driven by $A_T^{\mathrm{OT}}=\sum_{t=2}^T W_2^2(p_{t-1}^*,p_t^*)$. Under bounded support, stable latent geometry, predictive-map regularity, oracle realizability, localized restart windows, sublinear transport action, and sublinear corruption budget, the restarted predictor achieves sublinear cumulative Wasserstein regret. These guarantees require no parametric model for the stream, drift mechanism, or corruption process.

This paper is concerned with learning principal variations of random probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^m$ under the Wasserstein geometry. We introduce a new dynamical formulation to interpret the log-PCA, a linearized principal geodesic analysis, as a variational approach. Our differentiable version, termed as the Wasserstein Tangential PCA (WT-PCA), captures the local principal modes of geodesic variations of a (weighted) probability measure on the Wasserstein space via its covariance operator at barycenter. Based on the dynamical perspective and leveraging parallel transport structure of the optimal transport problems, we derive a general statistical convergence rate of the empirical WT-PCA when estimated from data in terms of the 2-Wasserstein distance between the population and empirical barycenter reference measures.

A small Wasserstein distance does not certify that a transformation is admissible. In evidence-constrained, semantic, causal, physical, monotone, or risk-sensitive learning, one must ask not only how far two probability laws are, but whether mass has moved in a direction allowed by available information. We introduce conditional random ordered transport spaces (CROTS), a class of $L^0$-valued spaces of random probability measures equipped with a Wasserstein ambient metric, a closed stochastic order, hard and soft ordered transport discrepancies, and a conditional risk functional for evaluating order violation under an evidence sigma-field. The central object is an order-admissible transport geometry for random measure-valued dynamics, distinct from cone-valued metrics, ordered Kantorovich constructions, random Wasserstein spaces alone, and model-specific residuals for generative paths. We develop the foundations of CROTS as a space theory for reliable distributional learning. The results include well-posedness and duality for hard and soft ordered transport, soft-to-hard variational convergence, measurability and completeness of the random lifted space, reductions to classical Wasserstein and ordered geometries, ordered geodesics, constrained barycenters and projections, conditional risk-transport duality, and separation of order-violating distributions. The main stability theorem shows that random learning dynamics may converge in the ambient Wasserstein metric while its local admissibility leakage follows a separate conditional order-risk recursion. The resulting asymptotic order-risk floor provides a mathematical language for evidence overreach, ordered distribution shift, robustness failure, and admissible distributional dynamics.

We study the minimax rate of estimating a future value $μ_{t_n+h}$ of a curve $t\mapstoμ_t$ in the $2$-Wasserstein space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb{R}^d)$ from finitely many noisy snapshots of its past, under an adiabatic bound $\|\nabla_t^k v\|\le\varepsilon$ on the $k$-th covariant derivative of the velocity field. Our central result is a unified temporal-spatial minimax lower bound: over regular, locally transport-rich subclasses, every estimator incurs $W_2$-risk with $M$-exponent $γ_d(k+1)/(k+1+γ_d)$, $γ_d=\min(1/d,1/2)$ ($M$ the total sample size). It follows from a temporal-to-spatial reduction: the smoothness budget defines a reachable $W_2$-ball into which a transport packing is embedded along the time axis, and the information of the entire snapshot experiment is controlled by a Fano argument -- the spatial packing is classical, but its smoothness-admissible temporal embedding and the full-window analysis are new. The bound interpolates a dimension-free extrapolation floor of order $\varepsilon h^{k+1}$ -- the irreducible cost of an unobserved future, present even with the exact past -- and the spatial estimation curse $M^{-γ_d}$, recovering the static distribution-estimation rate as $k\to\infty$. We state the lower bound in a design-dependent form -- with a design-weighted effective sample size -- valid for arbitrary observation times, and obtain the closed-form exponent in the dense (equispaced) regime. The matching upper bound is established at $k=0$ (rate $M^{-1/(d+1)}$, $d\ge3$) and, in a translation submodel, for all $k$; for $k\ge1$ a covariant estimator attains the rate conditionally on two estimates (a comparison-geometry bias bound and an optimal-transport map-estimation rate), leaving the unconditional general-$k$ upper bound as an open problem. Numerical experiments on synthetic curved and flat families corroborate the predicted exponents.

Electroencephalography (EEG) offers noninvasive, millisecond resolution recordings of neuronal activity and is widely used in neuroscience and healthcare. Many EEG decoding pipelines rely on covariance descriptors for their robustness to noise, but such representations are sensitive to channel-wise scaling. Recent studies have therefore advocated full-rank correlation matrices as a scale-invariant alternative for EEG decoding. In this paper, we study Sliced-Wasserstein (SW) discrepancies for probability distributions on the manifold of full-rank correlation matrices. We adopt the pullback-Euclidean formulation of SW, referred to as Pullback Euclidean Metric Sliced-Wasserstein (PEMSW), and instantiate it under two recently introduced correlation geometries, \textit{i.e.}, the Off-Log Metric (OLM) and Log-Scaled Metric (LSM). This yields two Correlation Sliced-Wasserstein (CorSW) discrepancies with closed-form slicing coordinates and efficient computation through one-dimensional Wasserstein distances. Building on CorSW, we further develop a domain generalization (DG) framework for EEG decoding. Experiments on three EEG datasets demonstrate improved generalization under distribution shifts, with low training overhead and no additional inference cost. The source code is available at github.com/ChenHu-ML/CorSW.

High-dimensional optimal transport is seldom available in closed form. The one-dimensional case is exceptional because the order of the real line is compatible with convex transport costs, making monotone rearrangement optimal. This paper studies when an analogous Monge structure can be recovered in higher dimensions from a partial order. We introduce a cone-compatible Monge geometry: a closed convex cone (K) induces the order (x\preceq_K y) whenever (y-x\in K), and is compatible with a cost if ordered pairs satisfy a Monge exchange inequality. For squared Mahalanobis costs (c_M(x,y)=(x-y)^\top M(x-y)), we prove a sharp characterization: compatibility holds exactly when (K) is acute under the (M)-inner product, namely (u^\top Mv\ge0) for all (u,v\in K), equivalently (K\subseteq K_M^*). Under this condition, measures supported on cone chains admit a quantile-type closed-form optimal coupling, yielding exact transport under the original ground cost rather than after projection or metric replacement. We distinguish the resulting cone-chain Wasserstein metric on canonically ordered chain distributions from an extended directed cone transport cost on general measures, and develop feasibility, duality, stability, approximation, Gaussian recovery, statistical, and computational results. The theory is complementary to sliced and tree Wasserstein distances: it is not a universal fast surrogate, but a way to obtain interpretable, direction-valid, original-space monotone transport for ordered high-dimensional data.

Many modern generative models can be viewed as minimizing divergences between probability distributions, yet they rely on different algorithmic and geometric principles. Wasserstein gradient flows provide a continuous-time formulation for optimizing over distributions, and can be approximated through their implicit discretization via the Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto (JKO) scheme. In this work, we present a unified theoretical framework for generative modeling based on Wasserstein gradient flows, which we refer to as Generative Wasserstein Flows (GWF). We show that a broad class of existing methods can be derived as instances of parametric JKO schemes for $f$-divergence objectives, and we establish equivalences between several recently proposed algorithms. We extend this framework beyond f-divergence to Integral Probability Metrics and squared Maximum Mean Discrepancy, deriving new JKO-based generative algorithms, and clarifying their connections with GANs. We study empirically the impact of the JKO regularization for a wide set of objectives. Finally, we analyze parametric Wasserstein flows, where the dynamics are restricted to distributions induced by parametrized maps.

We study the non-asymptotic contraction in Wasserstein distance of the sequential, parallel, and random-scan coordinate ascent variational inference algorithms. This is shown to hold under a functional smoothness condition of the optimality maps and a transportation-information inequality at their fixed points. Our results are sharp and general, and as opposed to those based on global strong log-concavity assumptions, they allow for local convergence on smooth, non-smooth, and discrete manifolds, including within the context of data augmentation. We consider many applications in statistical physics and Bayesian statistics. These include pairwise Markov Random field models such as Ising and Curie-Weiss, unbalanced Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Models, high-dimensional Bayesian Probit Regression, and high-dimensional Logistic Regression with Pólya--Gamma random variables (i.e. Jaakkola-Jordan's algorithm). In many of these models, these represent the first available convergence results of their kind.

Simulation-based inference with neural posterior estimation (NPE) often yields overconfident and unreliable posteriors under limited simulation budgets. To address this, we propose DRO-NPE, a distributionally robust approach that replaces the standard NPE objective with a worst-case loss over a Wasserstein ambiguity set. We introduce KL-based metrics for miscoverage and miscalibration, and use these to show that the DRO-NPE objective controls overfitting and reduces posterior overconfidence. Our method is tractable, parallelisable, and readily integrates with standard normalising flows. Across benchmark SBI tasks, DRO-NPE consistently improves coverage and calibration, while narrowing the gap between empirical and population NPE loss, leading to more reliable inference in low-simulation regimes.

We present a provably safe sampling-based motion planning algorithm for robotic systems affected by random disturbances of unknown distribution. We consider systems with linear or linearizable dynamics evolving in workspace with arbitrary-shaped obstacles subject to state and control constraints. Safety requirements are formulated as chance-constraints. Our approach leverages data from trajectories of the system to learn a Wasserstein ambiguity tube, i.e., a sequence of ambiguity sets, which contains the trajectory of the system's state distribution with high confidence. This ambiguity tube is then used in a probabilistically complete algorithm to grow a sampling-based motion planning tree that respects the constraints of the problem. We show that learning several lower-dimensional ambiguity tubes instead of a single high-dimensional one effectively reduces the conservatism and boosts scalability. Additionally, we design an efficient bandit-based validity checker that remarkably increases the empirical performance of our approach without sacrificing probabilistic completeness. Case studies show our algorithm finds valid plans in cluttered environments under strict safety thresholds, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

Deep learning models are increasingly used in scientific prediction tasks where strong benchmark performance is often interpreted as evidence of scientifically meaningful behavior. This interpretation is fragile, as models may exploit shortcut features, dataset-specific regularities, or distributional biases that are predictive on held-out data but not aligned with domain-relevant structure. To address this limitation, we introduce the \textsc{I-SAFE} (Interventional Secure, Accurate, Fair and Explainable) framework, a post-hoc distributional auditing framework for scientific AI models centered on the Wasserstein Coherence Metric (WCM). Given a trained black-box predictor and an external structural prior encoding domain knowledge about task-relevant input structure, \textsc{I-SAFE} evaluates raw model outputs under structurally guided perturbations of the input. The proposed audit measures output-distribution coherence through three complementary metrics: a Quantile-Based Metric (QBM) for location-level coherence, the WCM for ordinal coherence, and a translation-invariant WCM variant for shape coherence. We instantiate \textsc{I-SAFE} on drug--target interaction (DTI) prediction using the Davis kinase benchmark, KLIFS (Kinase--Ligand Interaction Fingerprints and Structures) binding-pocket annotations, and three sequence-based DTI models: DeepConvDTI, DeepDTA, and TAPB. Although the models operate in a comparable predictive regime, \textsc{I-SAFE} reveals substantially different distributional response profiles, a distinction invisible to accuracy-based evaluation. The framework is model-agnostic and applicable to any domain where inputs admit a structured decomposition and an external prior is available.

Squared Wasserstein distance is a frequently used tool to measure discrepancy between probability distributions. This distance is typically computed between empirical measures of size $n$ from two underlying random samples. Unfortunately, even in lower dimensional Euclidean space problems $\left( d \in \{2,3\} \right)$, algorithms for Wasserstein distance computation with approximate or exact precision guarantees scale poorly in the runtime as a function of $n$ and the desired precision. In response, we consider the computational-statistical runtime, where the goal is to estimate from samples the Wasserstein distance between potentially smooth measures up to $ε$-additive error in expectation with respect to the sampling; we allow $O(1)$ computational cost for collecting a sample. Towards this, we develop a Sample-Sketch-Solve paradigm where we introduce a regular cartesian grid sketch of the samples. We show that (especially under $α$-Hölder smooth distributions) this can compress the data without increasing asymptotic error, and also regularizes the structure which enables faster exact algorithms. Ultimately, we approximate $W_2^2(P,Q)$ within $ε$ error in $ε^{-\max(2,\frac{d+1+o(1)}{1+α})}$ time for $0 < α< 1$ Hölder smooth distributions $P,Q$ on $(0,1)^{d}$; an optimal $Θ(ε^{-2})$ for $α> 1/2$ when $d=2$ and nearly optimal as $α\to 1$ when $d = 3$.

Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a realized conformal threshold. In the continuous i.i.d. setting this law is exactly $Beta(k,n+1-k)$, so the usual marginal guarantee corresponds to its mean. We take this beta law as a finite-sample reference object and quantify departures from it using Wasserstein distances on $[0,1]$. The framework yields direct bounds on marginal coverage gaps and on bad-calibration probabilities, and separates different sources of non-i.i.d. behavior according to how they deform the beta reference: test-side shift acts through a transport map on the coverage scale, while calibration dependence changes the order-statistic law itself. We instantiate the framework in scale-shift, clustered, and stationary mixing settings, where the induced deformations can be characterized explicitly or through Berry-Esseen approximations. Simulations on dependent processes confirm that the first-order approximation tracks the empirical Wasserstein distance even at moderate sample sizes.

Small vision-language models (2-8B) are well-suited for clinical deployment due to privacy constraints, limited connectivity, and low-latency requirements favouring on-device or on-premise inference. However, their limited capacity exacerbates the generation of plausible but incorrect outputs. We extend game-theoretic decoding, previously restricted to text-only, closed-ended NLP tasks, to vision-language models for open-ended Medical VQA. We introduce a semantically aware Wasserstein stopping criterion that replaces lexical order matching, enabling convergence based on semantic consensus among near-synonymous candidate answers and avoiding unnecessary iterations caused by clinically equivalent ranking swaps. On VQA-RAD and PathVQA, we obtain consistent, statistically significant improvements over greedy and discriminative baselines. On VQA-RAD, we improve Qwen3-VL-2B by +3.5 percentage points (p < 0.01), surpassing the greedy 4B model, with similar trends at larger scales. On PathVQA, Gemma-3-4B with BDG matches MedGemma-4B under greedy decoding despite no domain-specific fine-tuning. At accuracy parity with classic BDG, the Wasserstein criterion reduces average convergence iterations by approximately 20%, improving inference efficiency while preserving the game-theoretic equilibrium behaviour. Code is available at https://github.com/luca-hagen/ Wasserstein-BDG-medical-VQA.

This paper studies sampling error bounds for denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) in the 2-Wasserstein distance. Our contributions are threefold. (i) Under general Lipschitz-type conditions on the score function and for a broad class of variance schedules, including the cosine schedule, we establish sharp upper bounds that are optimal in both the dimension and the number of steps, and recover several sharp error bounds previously obtained in the literature. (ii) We prove that the same Lipschitz-type conditions, which encompass those commonly imposed on the (learned) score, imply a logarithmic Sobolev inequality and hence a quadratic transportation cost inequality for the DDPM. As a consequence, in settings covered by existing work, an optimal Wasserstein bound, up to a logarithmic factor, follows from the recently obtained sharp error bound in the Kullback-Leibler divergence under geometric-type variance schedules. (iii) We show that for general log-concave target distributions, the optimal Wasserstein error bound remains attainable even without a quadratic transportation cost inequality for the target. Our analysis is based on viewing the DDPM sampler as a discretization of the Föllmer process rather than the conventional reverse Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Score-based generative models are trained in high-dimensional ambient spaces, yet many data distributions are supported on low-dimensional nonlinear structures. We prove that, for compact $d$-dimensional smooth manifolds $\mathcal{M} \subset [0,1]^D$ with $d > 2$ and $β$-Hölder densities strictly positive on $\mathcal{M}$, a variance-preserving SGM estimator attains the intrinsic Wasserstein--1 sample exponent $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(D^{\mathcal{O}_β(d)}n^{-(β+1)/(d+2β)})$, up to logarithmic factors and explicit geometry and density factors. The full nonasymptotic bound explicitly isolates the finite-order geometry envelope, Hölder radius, density lower bound, ambient dependence, and finite-order correction terms. The analysis separates score approximation into a large-noise tangent-cell regime and a small-noise projection-centered, de-Gaussianized Laplace regime. The key technical ingredient is a ReLU implementation of nearest-projection coordinates via finite intrinsic anchors and Gauss--Newton iterations, rather than approximating the manifold projection as a black-box high-dimensional smooth map. Consequently, for families with polynomially controlled geometry and density lower bounds, the constructed score-network parameters have polynomial ambient dependence.

Gromov--Wasserstein (GW) distances compare graphs, shapes, and point clouds through internal distances, without requiring a common coordinate system. This invariance is powerful, but discrete GW is a nonconvex quadratic optimal transport problem and is difficult to estimate at scale. We propose \emph{Distance-Matrix Wasserstein} (DMW), a hierarchy of Wasserstein statistics comparing laws of random finite distance matrices. Rather than optimizing a global point-level alignment, DMW samples $n$ points from each space, records their pairwise distances, and transports the resulting matrix laws. We prove that DMW is a relaxation and lower bound of GW, and establish a reverse approximation inequality: the GW--DMW gap is controlled by the Wasserstein error of approximating each original measure with $n$ samples. Hence population DMW converges to GW as sampled subspaces become dense. We further give finite-sample bounds, including intrinsic-dimensional rates that depend on the data manifold rather than the ambient matrix dimension $\binom n2$. For scalable computation, we introduce sliced and multi-scale DMW; for $p=1$, the sliced multi-scale dissimilarity yields positive-definite exponential kernels. Experiments on synthetic metric spaces, scalability benchmarks, graph classification, and two-sample testing validate the theory and demonstrate an interpretable GW-style proxy for structural comparison.

In this work, we study how to ensure probabilistic safety for nonlinear systems under distributional ambiguity. Our approach builds on a backup-based safety filtering framework that switches between a high-performance nominal policy and a certified backup policy to ensure safety. To handle arbitrary uncertainties from ambiguous distributions, i.e., where the distribution is not of specific structure and the true distribution is unknown, we adopt a distributionally robust (DR) formulation using Wasserstein ambiguity sets. Rather than solving a high-dimensional DR trajectory optimization problem online, we exploit the structure of backup-based safety filtering to reduce safety certification to a one-dimensional search over the switching time between nominal and backup policies. We then develop a sampling-based certification procedure with finite-sample guarantees, where empirical failure probabilities are compared against a Wasserstein-inflated threshold. We validate our method through simulations across three systems, from a Dubins vehicle to a high-speed racing car and a fighter jet, demonstrating the broad applicability and computational efficiency.

Diffusion models and flow-based methods have shown impressive generative capability, especially for images, but their sampling is expensive because it requires many iterative updates. We introduce W-Flow, a framework for training a generator that transforms samples from a simple reference distribution into samples from a target data distribution in a single step. This is achieved in two steps: we first define an evolution from the reference distribution to the target distribution through a Wasserstein gradient flow that minimizes an energy functional; second, we train a static neural generator to compress this evolution into one-step generation. We instantiate the energy functional with the Sinkhorn divergence, which yields an efficient optimal-transport-based update rule that captures global distributional discrepancy and improves coverage of the target distribution. We further prove that the finite-sample training dynamics converge to the continuous-time distributional dynamics under suitable assumptions. Empirically, W-Flow sets a new state of the art for one-step ImageNet 256$\times$256 generation, achieving 1.29 FID, with improved mode coverage and domain transfer. Compared to multi-step diffusion models with similar FID scores, our method yields approximately 100$\times$ faster sampling. These results show that Wasserstein gradient flows provide a principled and effective foundation for fast and high-fidelity generative modeling.

Distributional causal inference requires estimating not only average treatment effects but also interventional outcome distributions, including quantiles, tail risks, and policy-dependent uncertainty. As a method for distributional causal inference, generative adversarial network (GAN)-based counterfactual methods are flexible tools for this task. However, these methods have several limitations. First, the objectives of certain techniques do not coincide with the statistical risk of the identifiable causal target, and therefore provide limited theoretical guarantees regarding estimable counterfactual distributions or optimality. Second, they tend to rely on unstable density-based methods, such as density ratio estimation. In this paper, we propose GANICE (GAN for Interventional Conditional Estimation) with several advantages: it (i) clarifies the conditional interventional distribution for each treatment--covariate state as the causal estimation target; (ii) estimates the conditional distribution such that its averaged Wasserstein risk is minimized; (iii) establishes minimax optimality. GANICE achieves these advantages through the introduction of the extended Wasserstein distance, the incorporation of a cellwise critic in its dual, and an optimality proof based on Besov space theory. Our experiments demonstrate that GANICE consistently outperforms existing methods.

In this paper, we study the problem of sampling from a distribution under the constraint of differential privacy (DP). Prior works measure the utility of DP sampling with density ratio-based measures such as KL divergence. However, such formulations suffer from two key limitations: 1) they fail to capture the geometric structure of the support, and 2) they are not applicable when the supports of the distributions differ. To deal with these issues, we develop a novel framework for DP sampling with Wasserstein distance as the utility measure. In this formulation, we propose Wasserstein Projection Mechanism (WPM), a minimax optimal mechanism based on Wasserstein projection. Furthermore, we develop efficient algorithms for computing the proposed mechanisms approximately and provide convergence guarantees.

We introduce the observable Wasserstein distance, a framework for deriving lower bounds on the Wasserstein distance between probability measures on Polish metric spaces, designed to bypass the computational intractability of exact optimal transport in large-scale, non-Euclidean datasets. Analogous to the sliced Wasserstein distance in $\mathbb{R}^d$, our approach projects measures onto the real line via 1-Lipschitz observables and computes the Wasserstein distances between the resulting pushforward distributions. We define a hierarchy of pseudo-metrics by restricting observables to a nested chain of subspaces. A central theoretical contribution is an injectivity result linking the metric covering dimension of the support of a measure to the specific order in the hierarchy that guarantees unique recovery. This serves as a metric-space analogue to the Cramér-Wold Device for Euclidean distributions. We demonstrate that this hierarchy offers a tunable trade-off between sharpness as a lower bound on the Wasserstein distance and computational efficiency. We also present a discrete computational model for finite grids and numerical experiments validating the efficacy and utility of these approximations.

Continual post-training aims to extend large language models (LLMs) with new knowledge, skills, and behaviors, yet it remains unclear when sequential updates enable capability transfer and when they cause catastrophic forgetting. Existing methods mitigate forgetting through sequential fine-tuning, replay, regularization, or model merging, but offer limited criteria for determining when incorporating new updates is beneficial or harmful. In this work, we study LLM continual post-training through three questions: What drives forgetting? When do sequentially acquired capabilities transfer or interfere? How can compatibility be used to control update integration? We address these questions through task geometry: we represent each post-training task by its parameter update and study the covariance geometry induced by the update. Our central finding is that: forgetting can be considered as a state-relative update-integration failure, it arises when the covariance geometries induced by tasks misalign with the geometry of the evolving model state. Sequential updates transfer when they remain compatible with the model state shaped by previous updates, and interfere when state-relative geometry conflict becomes high. Motivated by this finding, we propose Geometry-Conflict Wasserstein Merging (GCWM), a data-free update-integration method that constructs a shared Wasserstein metric via Gaussian Wasserstein barycenters and uses geometry conflict to gate geometry-aware correction. Across Qwen3 0.6B--14B on domain-continual and capability-continual settings, GCWM consistently outperforms data-free baselines, improving retention and final performance without replay data. These results identify geometry conflict as both an explanatory signal for forgetting and a practical control signal for LLM continual post-training.

Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) and its variants have been widely used for text-to-3D generation by distilling 2D image diffusion priors. However, the standard SDS objective is prone to severe mode collapse, frequently yielding over-smoothed and over-saturated results. Although recent advancements, such as Score Distillation via Inversion (SDI), mitigate these artifacts and produce visually sharper models, they ultimately fail to faithfully capture the full target distribution. In this work, we show that the bottleneck limiting the sampling capacity of SDI stems from its reliance on the posterior mean estimator, which is mathematically equivalent to a single-step Euler approximation of the deterministic reverse DDIM trajectory. To address this, we propose a naturally motivated extension termed Probability-Flow Distillation (PFD). We establish that PFD corresponds exactly to a Wasserstein gradient flow, thereby inducing principled distribution-matching dynamics. Finally, we show that PFD can synthesize 3D assets with fine-grained, high-fidelity details and achieve improved quality compared to existing methods.

We present the Wristband Gaussian Loss, a deterministic batch loss for Gaussianizing point embeddings without sampling, KL terms, or iterative transport. Each $x \in \mathbb{R}^d$ is mapped to a direction $u = x/\|x\|$ and a CDF-transformed radius $t = F_{χ^2_d}(\|x\|^2)$ on the wristband $S^{d-1} \times [0,1]$. We prove (and machine-verify in Lean~4) that for $d \ge 2$ the pushforward wristband map equals $σ_{d-1} \otimes \mathrm{Unif}[0,1]$ iff the source is $\mathcal{N}(0, I_d)$, and that the Neumann-reflected wristband repulsion energy is uniquely minimized at the uniform target. We compute this reflected-kernel objective in two ways: a nearest three-image pairwise truncation at $O(N^2 d)$, and a spectral Neumann path joining angular and radial Mercer modes (spherical-harmonic and cosine) at $O(N d K)$, with empirically matched gradients. A 1D Wasserstein radial term and a moment penalty serve as finite-sample accelerators with the same optimum, and Monte-Carlo null calibration turns the components into a single standardized statistic. We evaluate direct point-cloud Gaussianization with a calibrated barycentric $W_2$ score: a deterministic Gaussian reference batch is built by recursive Hungarian averaging, with each method reported as a $z$-score against same-size Gaussian batches. On the axis-uniform X benchmark, Wristband is competitive in 2D and gives the best 10D score. On a harder radial--angular-copula impostor whose Gaussian radial and angular marginals are correct but dependent, Wristband gives the best 10D and 128D scores. Coupled with learnable-key Euclidean attention and exact invertible flows, the resulting Deterministic Gaussian Autoencoder delivers a Gaussian-latent interface for counterfactual sampling with independent factors and a context/residual construction for dependent factors.