Bayesian Inference
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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 300% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.
Latest papers 219
Kernel methods separate data representation from decision-making, but typically require the kernel to be chosen in advance. We show that this kernel can instead be learned by alignment, and develop the resulting framework through the recently introduced Collaborative Learning and Inference (CLaI). We show that Collaborative Learning can be viewed as a kernel alignment process, in which an embedding is trained so that its induced similarity matches a label-derived target kernel. We also prove that Collaborative Inference is equivalent to kernel Bayes classification with Parzen-window density estimation. Motivated by these perspectives, we generalise CLaI by replacing cosine similarity with a learned Mahalanobis distance and extend it to multiclass classification. On CIFAR-10, PathMNIST, and SleepEDF, the Mahalanobis formulation improves accuracy, converges faster, and yields lower calibration error than the cosine-based variant. Auxiliary experiments further support these connections, showing that CLaI produces latent signals of the same form as a Gaussian process, while achieving competitive calibration on sepsis prediction. Together, these results establish a principled learned-kernel framework that unifies representation learning, kernel alignment, and Bayesian classification, and extends naturally to the multiclass setting.
HyperMC: Multi-Fidelity Hyperparameter Tuning for Stochastic Gradient MCMC
Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) methods enable scalable Bayesian inference, but their performance depends strongly on hyperparameters such as the step size, mini-batch size, and number of leapfrog steps. Since most SGMCMC algorithms lack a Metropolis-Hastings acceptance rate, standard acceptance-based tuning methods are not directly applicable. We propose HyperMC, a multi-fidelity tuning framework that combines Hyperband-style resource allocation with kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) evaluation. By running multiple successive-halving brackets, HyperMC balances broad exploration of a continuous hyperparameter space with increasingly accurate evaluation of promising configurations under a fixed computational budget. We further introduce Robust HyperMC, which uses global grid initialization followed by elite-guided local refinement to reduce sensitivity to random candidate generation and noisy finite-budget evaluations. Under suitable approximation and concentration conditions for the estimated KSD, we establish that the successive-halving component selects a near-optimal configuration among the sampled candidates with high probability and derive a sufficient computational budget for successful selection. Experiments on logistic regression, probabilistic matrix factorization, and Bayesian neural networks show that HyperMC improves posterior approximation or predictive calibration relative to MAMBA, grid search, and heuristic baselines, while Robust HyperMC yields more stable and reproducible tuning results.
Comment on "Modeling rapid language learning by distilling Bayesian priors into artificial neural networks"
McCoy & Griffiths (2025, henceforth M&G) suggest that a Bayesian prior can be distilled into Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) through Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML, Finn et al., 2017). They support this empirically by showing that meta-trained networks demonstrate formal language learning abilities comparable to Yang & Piantadosi (2023)'s Bayesian learner, significantly outperforming standard ANNs. We point out that under the standard interpretation of a prior, M&G's procedure does not actually instill one; it merely initializes network weights favorably, leaving the objective function unchanged. We then consider a more permissive interpretation, where the system as a whole can be seen as implementing a Bayesian learner even without an explicit prior in the objective. We show that this interpretation faces nontrivial challenges. Finally, we assess how well MAML approximates the empirical results of Bayesian learning, showing that unlike genuine Bayesian learners, M&G's model overfits and generalizes poorly to unseen data.
Interpretable Causal Discovery via Causal-Effect Constraints
Causal discovery aims to uncover the underlying causal relationships given data generated from a system. The goal, however, is not merely to predict causal edges given data, but also to be able to interpret and explain either observed or hypothesized phenomena, such as a particularly large causal effect. We consider this task of conditional causal discovery and cast it as a Bayesian inference problem, in which we target the posterior over causal graphs and parameters conditional on an event such as a causal-effect constraint. Unfortunately, this poses a computational challenge: existing approaches to Bayesian causal discovery struggle when the event has small posterior mass. To address this, we adapt rare-event estimation techniques to perform inference the joint graph-parameter space. Our method gradually drives a particle population toward the constrained region while maintaining samples that approximate the conditional posterior. Empirical evaluation on synthetic graphs validates the accuracy of our approach at small and large scales, and we show in a case study on the Sachs protein dataset how our method can be used to aid scientific exploration by providing pathway-level summaries.
Bayesian Symbolic Regression with Entropic Reinforcement Learning
Symbolic regression is the problem of finding an algebraic expression describing a stochastic dependence of a target variable on a set of inputs. Unlike forms of regression that fit parameters assuming a fixed model structure, symbolic regression is a search problem over the space of expressions, represented, for example, as abstract syntax trees using a library of operators. Symbolic regression is typically used in settings with limited, noisy data in the natural sciences. However, searching for a single best-fitting expression fails to capture the epistemic uncertainty about the expression, which motivates a Bayesian perspective that enables uncertainty quantification and specification of natural priors to constrain the search space. In this work, we propose ERRLESS (Entropy-Regularized Reinforcement Learning for Expression Structure Sampling), a scalable approach for sampling from the posterior distribution over expressions given data using maximum-entropy reinforcement learning. ERRLESS learns a neural policy that constructs expressions sequentially by building up their abstract syntax trees. At convergence, the policy samples expressions from the posterior. At test time, expressions can be sampled by rollouts of this policy. We demonstrate that ERRLESS achieves competitive results on the Feynman benchmark while producing short and interpretable expressions. Additionally, we demonstrate that the mean of the posterior predictive approximated by ERRLESS achieves a high coefficient of determination () compared to an SMC baseline, highlighting the benefits of the Bayesian perspective in symbolic regression.
The Impact of Operational-Data Fidelity when Assessing Safety-Critical Autonomous-Vehicle Software
For safety-critical software, operational data (e.g. sequences of software successes and failures) can provide strong statistical support for reliability claims. However, insufficient detail about past software failures may leave assessments unable to account for important features of failure behavior. In this paper, we extend conservative Bayesian inference (CBI) techniques for reliability assessment to check the robustness of reliability claims based on such data. We show how insufficient detail in operational data can undermine software reliability claims in autonomous vehicle (AV) safety assessment scenarios: even when used conservatively, low-fidelity data may yield dangerously optimistic conclusions. While these findings are consistent with previous work on the impact of statistical model fidelity in Bayesian software reliability assessments, our work clarifies why attempts to use low-fidelity data conservatively can be naive. To the best of our knowledge, we give the first conservative estimates of the impact of data fidelity on reliability assessments.
LazyHMC: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Simulation for Lazy, Infinite Dimensional Probabilistic Programs
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a successful generic inference method in probabilistic programming, but in its ordinary formulation it needs gradients and finite-dimensional parameter spaces. In Haskell, lazy evaluation lets probabilistic programs express stochastic processes and other non-parametric Bayesian models over implicit infinite-dimensional spaces. This paper develops new formulations of gradient-based HMC for this infinite-dimensional setting, via lazy evaluation. For automatic differentiation, we provide an analysis based on a new notion of "piecewise analytic under cylindrical analytic partition" (PACAP), to show that even if a program is infinite-dimensional and defined lazily, the gradient of the likelihood function is finitely supported. For the Monte Carlo method itself, we develop several HMC variants and a No-U-Turn Sampler that operate over the infinite-dimensional parameter space but are still productive because of lazy evaluation. Experiments cover Gaussian mixture clustering, random walks, and piecewise-constant regression with Poisson-process changepoints.
Leveraging System-Level Observations to Inform Bayesian Learning of Model Parameters for Quantitative Verification
Combining Bayesian learning and quantitative verification is a powerful toolset for analysing key quantitative properties of software systems, like reliability and response time. However, the accuracy and robustness of verification results strongly depend on the prior knowledge (PK) underlying Bayesian inference. This knowledge reflects original beliefs about the probability of events and typically depends on domain expertise. Using inaccurate or uninformative PK can negatively affect quantitative analysis, yielding incorrect verification results. Our EPIK approach tackles this important challenge by eliciting and embedding PK in quantitative verification equipped with Bayesian estimators. Unlike existing approaches that require PK on formal model transition parameters, EPIK leverages system-level properties that are directly observable and are linked to real-world semantics. EPIK formulates a twofold optimisation problem to derive the distributions of unknown transition parameters and then embeds these distributions to verify new or difficult-to-measure (elusive) properties. The detailed experimental evaluation using multiple variants of real-world case studies and diverse EPIK instantiations shows its effectiveness, flexibility and generality.
LLM-Derived Priors for Thompson Sampling in Cold-Start Comment Recommendation
Multi-armed bandit algorithms, especially Thompson sampling, are widely used in online recommendation. Despite their ability to adapt from online feedback, these methods often suffer from cold-start limitations when newly introduced arms have little or no interaction history. In our setting, the candidate arms are user-generated textual comments, whose semantic content can reveal a title's appeal before sufficient interaction feedback is available. We therefore use large language models (LLMs) to extract semantic signals from comment text and convert them into informative Bayesian priors that warm-start Thompson sampling under sparse early-stage feedback. To account for aggregate segment-level differences in response patterns, we maintain and update posteriors separately for each gender-age segment. In a real-world online A/B/C test, we compare a uniform prior with two LLM-based designs: a Gender Prior for demographic-affinity cues and a Content Prior for title-specific identity cues. The results show that LLM-based priors are most beneficial in sparse-feedback regimes -- with the largest gains emerging once a small amount of interaction evidence has accumulated -- and that prior design leads to distinct funnel-level effects. We further analyze prior-reward alignment and demographic heterogeneity, finding that click-oriented alignment is strongest for the Gender Prior and that treatment effects vary substantially across demographic segments. These findings suggest that LLM-derived priors can serve as a practical warm-start mechanism for text-rich bandit recommendation, while also revealing deployment trade-offs.
Measuring in-context algorithmic reasoning in language models against an exact Bayes-optimal standard
Whether large language models perform genuine algorithmic reasoning or mere pattern completion is hard to test, because most benchmarks lack a ground truth for correct inductive inference. We introduce F-ICL, an in-context-learning benchmark that supplies one exactly. Using the Turing-complete machine F, complement-symmetrised into sF to remove output-polarity bias, we exhaustively enumerate all 1.5 billion programs of length and compute the Bayes-optimal posterior in closed form under a bounded universal (Levin--Solomonoff) prior; models are scored by how closely their served distributions approach it at matched evidence. Each task is paired with its bitwise complement, on which the optimum scores identically, so an original-twin gap isolates the model's inductive bias. Across 105 serving configurations spanning 37 open models (0.8B--675B) and frontier systems from four laboratories, models answer up to 92% of queries correctly, yet 45 of 46 models yield distributions farther from the optimum than a keystroke reference, and their behaviour is bracketed by low-order prefix statistics fitted only on visible evidence. That reference is itself an algorithmic mixture, induced by a print-only machine with no loops, so the panel's implied measure sits closer to a loop-free mixture than to the loop-bearing optimum, independently of the reference machine. Updating is also non-monotone, which no prior explains: a Bayes-rational solved set can only grow in this realisable, noiseless setting, yet added examples produce solved-to-unsolved transitions against gains. The gap is not predicted by accuracy (Spearman , ), does not close with scale or across frontier generations in the serving modes that expose distributions, and is widened by instruction and reasoning post-training. F-ICL is released as an open, reproducible benchmark and toolkit.
A Bayes-Markov Neuromorphic Model of Cortical Orientation Selectivity: A Computational Re-implementation and Quantitative Simulation Study
The emergence of orientation selectivity in the primary visual cortex (V1) remains a central question in computational neuroscience. Shirazi's Bayes-Markov model proposed a probabilistic explanation for how orientation-selective inhibition can arise from non-oriented lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) inputs through local inference. In that formulation, the activity pattern of striate cortical inhibitory (SCI) cells is estimated from the LGN activity pattern by a maximum a posteriori (MAP) criterion over a two-layer hierarchical Markov random field, and the resulting inference is implemented through a local parallel relaxation algorithm. We provide a computationally explicit re-implementation and quantitative simulation study of this framework. We reconstruct the mathematical model, describe its fully LGN-driven update rule, and implement a vectorized simulation framework that preserves the original local clique operations while making systematic parameter sweeps feasible. We evaluate the model using orientation tuning curves, an orientation selectivity index (OSI), controlled LGN noise perturbations, contrast tests, and model-variant comparisons. We further add a spiking SCI-layer realization using leaky integrate-and-fire and Hodgkin-Huxley neurons to examine whether the rate-coded SCI field can be expressed through temporally explicit neural activity. The simulations support the central qualitative behavior of the Bayes-Markov framework: sharp orientation selectivity, robustness to moderate LGN noise, and a biologically interpretable proof-of-concept spiking realization of the inferred inhibitory field.
A Generalized-Bayes Perspective on Counterfactual Explanations: Posterior-Based Decision-Making and Evaluation
Counterfactual explanations (CEs) enhance the interpretability of machine learning models by identifying the smallest change to an input required to obtain a desired output. Although CEs are conventionally formulated as a distance-minimization problem, the theoretical basis of this formulation has received limited attention. We show that a distance-minimization-based CE is mathematically equivalent to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of a Gibbs posterior within the generalized Bayes framework, specifically when a distance-based prior is used. We call this formulation the Distance-Prior Generalized Bayes CE (DP-GBCE). Building on this posterior perspective, we introduce two decision rules beyond MAP within a unified framework: a Bayes decision that minimizes expected decision loss and CVaR-CE, a risk-averse decision rule. We also propose an extension that uses Bayesian model weights to mix the posterior distributions of multiple models, thereby accounting for model multiplicity, where several models have comparable predictive performance. Finally, we define metrics for evaluating both individual CEs and the posterior distribution as a whole, and use experiments on simulated data and Google Trends data to quantify the trade-offs among the decision rules.
Partner Capability Estimation for Task-Agnostic Adaptation in Ad-Hoc Teamwork
Effective collaboration with novel and diverse partners is a crucial skill for autonomous agents. Most current ad-hoc teamwork (AHT) approaches assume that agents will collaborate on a single, fixed task and that the partner's capabilities, their ability to successfully execute the desired action, are already known. In reality, a partner's true capabilities are often hidden, and human collaborators may act sub-optimally on tasks with multiple valid strategies. To address these limitations, we extend ad-hoc teamwork into a multi-task setting by re-framing it as a problem of joint planning with decentralised execution under hidden partner capabilities. We introduce CE-CM (Capability Estimation via Contextual Models), an approximate Bayesian method that infers task-invariant capability vectors. By using simulation-based sampling, the agent estimates capabilities and induces a contextual Multi-agent Markov Decision Processes for planning. This approach requires no population pre-training and refines its beliefs online from just a few tasks. To account for human unpredictability, we propose CE-CM-Div, an extension that evaluates capability hypotheses against diverse planner rollouts rather than a single optimal trajectory. Simulated experiments demonstrate that CE-CM rapidly recovers hidden capabilities, reduces infeasible action assignments, and adapts to changes over time. Furthermore, in an offline human study of 225 trajectories from 15 participants, CE-CM-Div substantially improved capability estimates over the baseline CE-CM method. Our results suggest capability-based modelling is a promising interpretable, task-agnostic representation in the studied settings, demonstrating that accounting for behavioural diversity is essential for robust human-AI teaming.
Rethinking Likelihood distributions: Student's t Likelihood Boosts Bayesian Neural Network Performance
In Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), variational inference is a widely adopted framework for modeling uncertainty in a distributional way, with the evidence lower bound (ELBO) serving as the standard objective function. Several distributions contribute to the ELBO loss, such as the prior, approximated posterior, and likelihood distribution. Typically, these distributions are all approximated by a Gaussian distribution, since it is easy to compute, allows for reparameterized gradients, and provides a closed-form loss for training. However, several works have highlighted that this assumption may not generally hold, posing the risk of model misspecification. Alternative distributions have been proposed for the prior specifically, while the effect of distribution choice on the likelihood distribution remains unexplored. In this work, our aim is to close this gap by investigating whether alternative assumptions for the likelihood distribution can outperform the commonly used Gaussian. We compare several likelihood distribution assumptions, such as skewed or heavy-tailed, across regression tasks on both artificial and real-world datasets using standard multilayer perceptrons (MLPs). Our findings demonstrate that Student's t yields better predictive performance than a Gaussian likelihood distribution, independent of the data distribution and MLP architecture (depth and width). In some cases, Student's t can also lead to shorter training times, while still being easy to implement.
PYPM-GGD: Pitman-Yor Process Mixture with Generalized Gaussian Density using ADAM
Large scale Bayesian nonparametrics (BNP) learner such as Stochastic Variational Inference (SVI) can handle datasets with large class number and large training size at fractional cost. Like its predecessor, SVI rely on the assumption of conjugate variational posterior to approximate the true posterior. A more challenging problem is to consider large scale learning on non-conjugate posterior. Recent works in this direction are mostly associated with using Monte Carlo methods for approximating the learner. However, these works are usually demonstrated on non-BNP related task and less complex models such as logistic regression, due to higher computational complexity. In order to overcome the issue faced by SVI, we develop a novel approach based on the recently proposed constant stepsize stochastic gradient ascent to allow large scale learning on non-conjugate posterior. Unlike SVI, our new learner does not require closed- form expression for the variational posterior expectatations. Our only requirement is that the variational posterior is differentiable. In order to ensure convergence in stochastic settings, SVI rely on decaying step-sizes to slow its learning. Inspired by SVI and Adam, we propose the novel use of adaptive stepsizes in our method to significantly improve its learning. We show that our proposed methods is compatible with ResNet features when applied to large class number datasets such as MIT67 and SUN397. Finally, we compare our proposed learner with several recent works such as deep clustering algorithms and showed we were able to produce on-par or outperform the state-of-the-art methods in terms of clustering measures.
Cost-Aware Recovery-Pathway Identification and Bayesian Optimization for Autonomous Materials Discovery
Autonomous laboratories automate experimental execution, but a campaign must also decide which recovery pathway merits optimization. We formulate this as a sequential decision problem with a discrete pathway-identification stage and a continuous within-pathway optimization stage under heterogeneous experimental costs. Our implementation, Coactive learning, combines a cost-sensitive Bayesian hypothesis-discrimination policy motivated by EC2 (Golovin et al., 2010) with Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization (Srinivas et al., 2010). Under explicitly stated assumptions, the expected spend of one fixed-budget campaign attempt is bounded by the expected pathway-identification cost plus the capped within-pathway optimization budget. We evaluate the method on synthetic benchmarks constrained by selected results reported for PNNL's CICERO selective-precipitation study (Ritchhart et al., 2026). The method performs comparably to an oracle-pathway Bayesian-optimization reference and to a strong split-plate baseline that discriminates pathways with its first plate, without receiving an oracle label for the correct pathway. It is given a candidate hypothesis space and a diagnostic likelihood model. On an NdFeB-inspired instance, it avoids the simulated penalty of a commit-first baseline that initially selects a plausible but inferior hydroxide pathway. This hypothetical wrong-first-commitment scenario is motivated by the hydroxide-oxalate performance contrast reported by CICERO. We characterize the sensitivity of these conclusions to the assumed cost model. The code and benchmark are open source.
Bayesian Complete-Pooling in Cross-Subject Classification for Motor Imagery Electroencephalogram
Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) have long sought calibration-free operation, but classifiers are typically benchmarked by discrimination alone, blind to whether predicted probabilities are well calibrated - a meaningful gap given nonstationary electroencephalogram (EEG) signals and the risk of overconfident point-estimate classifiers under distribution shift. We conducted a large-scale study contrasting Bayesian complete-pooling models against frequentist baselines for cross-subject, left-hand versus right-hand motor imagery EEG classification across 20 datasets. Six frequentist pipelines were each paired with an analogous Bayesian pipeline sharing identical feature engineering, fit via Markov chain Monte Carlo posterior sampling. Our primary metric was the Brier score, decomposed into reliability and resolution, alongside AUROC for discrimination and Shannon entropy for sharpness. Each metric was analyzed via random-effects meta-analysis (REML, Knapp-Hartung adjustment), verified by leave-one-out influence analysis. Bayesian complete-pooling produced statistically but not practically significant improvements in reliability and increases in predictive uncertainty (lower sharpness); Brier score, resolution, and discrimination showed no significant differences. Between-study heterogeneity was low across all metrics, though the reliability result was sensitive to leave-one-out removal. We additionally profiled computational cost, finding that Bayesian pipelines consumed roughly thirteen times more energy than their frequentist counterparts, a cost that remains modest relative to common household appliances. These results suggest that Bayesian complete-pooling alone offers limited practical benefit for cross-subject motor imagery classification, and that partial-pooling across subjects and sessions is a more promising direction for future work.
Verbalized Particle Posterior: Bayesian Inference over Natural Language Hypotheses
Verbalized Machine Learning (VML) parameterizes a model as a natural-language prompt that an LLM evaluates as f(x; theta). The framework is interpretable, but it commits to a single hypothesis with no measure of uncertainty, and that hypothesis varies substantially across optimization runs on the same data. We propose the Verbalized Particle Posterior (VPP), which treats verbalized learning as a Bayesian inference problem: maintain a population of natural-language hypotheses as particles, update them with Metropolis-Hastings (VPP-MH) or Sequential Monte Carlo (VPP-SMC), and predict by Bayesian model averaging. Both algorithms treat the LLM as a black box, requiring no access to logits or gradients. A distinctive consequence follows. In classical Bayesian learning, model selection sits outside the posterior; in VPP both model structure and parameters share a single language space, and the posterior ranges over both. We evaluate VPP on regression, classification, and rule-discovery benchmarks. It improves over a single VML run on every benchmark and matches or exceeds an oracle-best ensemble of independent VML runs on most, while eliminating the catastrophic single-run failures that VML occasionally produces. Because each particle is a human-readable hypothesis, the posterior is itself something a reader can inspect, seeing in plain text which explanations the data supported and which it ruled out.
Distributional Determinantal Point Process for Repulsive Clustering of Distributions
We introduce the distributional determinantal point process (dDPP) as a novel repulsive point process whose atoms are probability distributions rather than points in a real space. The dDPP is constructed via an L-ensemble with a sliced Wasserstein (SW) kernel between distributions. We show its validity as a well-defined point process. In the discrete setting, we derive concentration results for plug-in estimators of the L-ensemble, the correlation kernel, and their determinants given i.i.d. samples from the distributional atoms. Leveraging this framework, we propose a distribution-valued random partition model by way of a repulsive generalized Bayesian mixture model. The model places a dDPP prior over the atoms of the mixing measure and defines a generalized likelihood based on SW distance. To summarize posterior inference, we develop a decision-theoretic approach to report a point estimate of the mixing measure as a Bayes rule under a hierarchical optimal transport utility function. The latter is a natural choice given that the mixing measure is itself a distribution over distributions. We use the proposed framework for inference with single-cell gene expression data and human epilepsy data, producing interpretable and well-separated clusters that reflect meaningful structure in the data.
An Introduction to Bayesian and Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference with Machine Learning
Simulation-based inference (SBI) with machine learning is an increasingly important tool for solving inverse problems in science and engineering, including parameter inference and the inversion of detector effects. We provide an overview of the Bayesian and frequentist statistical frameworks, describe how machine-learning-based SBI methods, such as neural posterior estimation and neural likelihood estimation, can be used for parameter estimation within these frameworks, and show that the same methods can also be applied to Empirical Bayes or unfolding tasks. We also discuss how to validate inference results and the limitations of SBI with machine learning.
Adaptive Bayesian Online Learning via Expert Aggregation
Bayesian online learning promises uncertainty-aware prediction on data streams, but its performance hinges on inferential choices, including learning rates, prior distributions and variational families, which are usually fixed before seeing the stream. We address this by treating Bayesian update rules as experts and aggregating the Bayesian experts according to sequential predictive losses. We prove that the resulting aggregate competes with the best expert in hindsight at an aggregation cost determined by how each expert's per-round performance is evaluated. We instantiate the framework in online conformal inference and Gaussian process regression. The conformal inference application yields a smoothed Bayesian counterpart of adaptive conformal inference with long-run randomized coverage, while the Gaussian process application gives an oracle inequality in cumulative predictive Kullback-Leibler risk and adaptation to unknown Hölder smoothness up to logarithmic factors. Experiments show that the aggregate tracks strong experts without oracle expert selection.
A Bayesian Framework for Built-in Input Dimension Reduction for Gaussian Process Modeling
Gaussian process (GP) modeling is widely used in computational science and engineering. However, fitting a GP to high-dimensional inputs remains challenging due to the curse of dimensionality. While various methods have been proposed to reduce input dimensionality, they typically follow a two-stage approach, performing dimension reduction and GP fitting separately. We introduce a Bayesian framework that seamlessly integrates dimensionality reduction with GP modeling and inference. Our approach, built on a hierarchical Bayesian model with priors on the Stiefel manifold, enforces orthonormality on the projection matrix and enables posterior inference via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with geodesic flow. Additionally, we extend this framework by incorporating Deep Gaussian Processes (DGP) with built-in dimension reduction, providing a more flexible and powerful tool for complex datasets. Through extensive numerical studies, we demonstrate that while the proposed Bayesian method incurs higher computational costs, it improves predictive performance and uncertainty quantification, providing a principled and robust alternative to existing methods.
A Hardware-oriented Approach for Efficient Bayesian Inference Computation and Deployment
Bayesian inference provides a principled foundation for reasoning under uncertainty, but its computational cost hinders deployment on resource-constrained edge devices. In this paper, we present a hardware-oriented methodology for accelerating discrete Bayesian inference on commercial off-the-shelf embedded GPUs. We identify that the latency of a broad class of variational message-passing algorithms is dominated by tensor contractions. Our approach restructures the memory layout of these operations using two complementary merging strategies that produce compact, regularly-shaped primitives better suited for efficient GPU execution. We then introduce optional sparse array representations and a tensor-clustering scheme to reduce the memory footprint. We instantiate the methodology and produce optimized variants of three message-passing algorithms for Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), namely variational filtering, variational message passing, and marginal message passing. Furthermore, we complement this with a machine-learning-based autotuner that automatically selects the best-performing algorithmic variant for a given generative model specification. Benchmarked on an NVIDIA Jetson Orin AGX across 770 randomly sampled realistic Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) configurations, our implementations achieve speedups of up to 5x, with typical gains of 2-2.5x, while producing numerically identical outputs to the baseline implementations.
An efficient adaptive dimension selection algorithm for multidimensional probit graded response models
Multidimensional graded response models (MGRMs) are widely used for analyzing ordinal questionnaire data in psychological and educational assessments. A central challenge in applying these models is determining the number of latent dimensions. Conventional approaches usually fit multiple fixed-dimensional models and select among them using post-hoc criteria such as AIC, BIC, or cross-validation, which can be computationally demanding and ignore uncertainty in dimensionality during estimation. We develop an adaptive Bayesian dimension selection framework for probit MGRMs. Building on the cumulative shrinkage process, we assign a cumulative ordered spike-and-slab (COSS) prior to the column-specific variances of the item loading matrix. This prior induces increasing shrinkage across latent dimensions, allowing redundant dimensions to be shrunk toward zero while preserving flexibility for active dimensions. Albert--Chib latent response augmentation is used to handle the ordinal probit likelihood, yielding conditionally Gaussian updates for item loadings and latent traits. These updates are combined with Gibbs updates for threshold and shrinkage parameters in an efficient adaptive sampler. Simulation studies evaluate the proposed method in terms of dimension recovery, parameter estimation accuracy, and computational efficiency, with comparisons to conventional fixed-dimensional estimation and model selection procedures. The results show that the proposed approach accurately recovers the latent structure while avoiding repeated model fitting over multiple candidate dimensions. We further illustrate the method using real psychological assessment data, demonstrating its practical utility for uncovering interpretable latent structures in ordinal item responses.
Program Synthesis for Simulation-Based Inference: Joint Model Selection and Parameter Estimation
Neural simulation-based inference enables parameter estimation for complex models, but typically requires the user to specify a simulator encoding a fixed model structure. We present a framework for joint model selection and parameter estimation that combines large language models for program synthesis with neural simulation-based inference. Given a natural language description of the system and data under investigation, an LLM proposes candidate simulator programs which are iteratively refined via feedback-driven mutation and evaluated using neural density estimation. The approach enables simulation-based inference over a pool of models, not just parameters within a fixed model. On benchmarks spanning deterministic dynamics, stochastic epidemic models, and dark matter substructure inference from gravitational-lensing images, the method identifies plausible model families from open-ended prompts, with accuracy that reflects the information content of the data and identifiability of candidate models.
What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach
A Bayes-filtered transformer (BFT) is a transformer trained on sequences that are generated in two steps: first a latent task is drawn from a prior, then observations are drawn conditional on that task. Trained under autoregressive log loss, the BFT's next-token prediction, in the idealized limit, is the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution (PPD) induced by that prior and that conditional law. In practice the trained BFT is only an approximation of this ideal PPD, raising an interpretive question: what prior and posterior over the latent task has the trained BFT actually internalized? Existing work answers this question by comparing the trained BFT's predictions against the predictions of various "reference" posteriors, each standing in for a different candidate algorithm or computation the BFT might be implementing. This prediction-space comparison is fragile: different posteriors can share the same posterior-mean predictions. We use predictive Monte Carlo (PMC) as a general interpretability tool for any BFT: using only next-token generation, PMC returns an approximation to the implicit prior and posterior over the latent task, answering the interpretive question directly in latent space. We apply PMC to three stylized task families spanning 0-Markov and 1-Markov exchangeability. The phenomena previously reported in these settings remain visible in latent space. Code is available at https://github.com/afiq-aswadi/bft-pmc
DP-BOA: Dirichlet-Process Birth-or-Assign for On-the-Fly Category Discovery
On-the-fly category discovery requires deciding for each incoming test sample whether to assign it to an existing category or spawn a new one. Existing methods typically implement this decision through matching-based heuristics, such as radius- or hash-based rules. While effective in practice, these methods usually treat category birth implicitly as a fallback when no existing category matches confidently, rather than as an explicit alternative supported by its own statistical evidence. To address this, we propose DP-BOA, a posterior-predictive decision framework based on an online Dirichlet-process Gaussian mixture model with a Normal-Inverse-Wishart prior. During training, we use labeled data to calibrate a shared NIW prior over category Gaussians and warm-start the known-category posteriors. At test time, for each incoming sample, DP-BOA compares the posterior predictive evidence for assignment to existing categories against the evidence for spawning a new category induced by the DP prior, and then updates category statistics online after the decision. The method captures anisotropic category geometry and naturally adapts decision confidence as evidence accumulates. Across standard OCD benchmarks, DP-BOA consistently outperforms strong baselines and delivers particularly strong novel-class discovery performance while maintaining competitive known-class accuracy.
Adapting Evidential Neural Networks to Test-Time Neighbor Fusion Improves Molecular Property Prediction
A trained molecular property model can be refined at test time by correcting each prediction with the measured labels of the most similar training molecules, a retraining-free procedure we call neighbor fusion; evidential neural networks make it principled by using their aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to parameterize a Bayesian update. Our main contribution, PG-EVIKAL, learns a property-distance metric to re-rank structurally similar neighbors by their property relevance before fusion, building on EVIKAL (scalar Kalman filter) and GP-EVIKAL (Gaussian process variant handling correlated neighbors). Evaluated on 16 molecular datasets, PG-EVIKAL reduces RMSE relative to the evidential model baseline on 14 of them, with a median reduction of 19.4%, and improves calibration; in sequential-assay scenarios it further incorporates newly measured molecules, refining predictions as they arrive without retraining. This work demonstrates that evidential uncertainty decomposition is not merely a calibration objective but an actionable inference resource that enables test-time refinement of molecular property predictions.
DP-Splat: Bayesian Nonparametric Complexity Control for Gaussian Splatting
3D Gaussian Splatting represents scenes as finite mixtures of anisotropic Gaussians whose number of components is set by heuristic density control or user caps. Variational Bayes Gaussian Splatting (VBGS) recast splat fitting as conjugate variational inference, but remains fixed. We replace the finite symmetric Dirichlet over mixture weights with a truncated stick-breaking Dirichlet-process prior -- and, as a theory-backed alternative, a sparse overfitted finite Dirichlet -- so that the number of occupied components adapts to the data while every update remains a closed-form coordinate-ascent step; a natural-gradient stochastic variant makes the per-step cost independent of the number of points. We give an exact monotonicity guarantee, a rigorous truncation-error bound correcting an anti-conservative large- approximation in common use, and an honest account of what the fitted number of components estimates. Empirically: (i) the effective complexity adapts to scene complexity and recovers the true within on well-separated synthetic data with regime-appropriate concentration; (ii) a deconfounded comparison shows the DP prior's contribution is complexity selection, not per-component efficiency -- converged DP fits exceed single-pass fixed- VBGS by +2.7 dB at matched budgets yet tie an equally converged fixed- baseline, and on 3D scenes DP-Splat matches or exceeds VBGS's held-out color prediction with 5.9-7.6x fewer components; (iii) the posterior-predictive color variance is well calibrated on model-matched synthetic data; and (iv) the ordering suggested by exact-posterior asymptotics reverses under mean-field coordinate ascent: the DP prior resists over-splitting while the sparse finite mixture saturates its truncation, a gap between variational practice and posterior asymptotics documented across three orders of magnitude in .
Hierarchical Bayesian Quadrature
Numerical integration is a cornerstone of various scientific computing applications, such as engineering simulations and model evidence computations in probabilistic machine learning. Bayesian Quadrature uses Gaussian process surrogates that explicitly encode structural assumptions about the integrand to obtain integral estimates with quantified uncertainty. These surrogates are predominantly based on stationary covariance functions, which results in model misspecification for integrands exhibiting nonstationary behavior. We tackle this issue through an adaptively growing, tree-based partition of the integration domain into local stationary models. Our method recombines the local integral estimates through a hierarchy of GP conditioning that reintroduces cross-subdomain correlations, while model selection criteria control the tree growth to avoid unnecessary partitioning. The resulting algorithm is simple, requires no MCMC, and adapts its evaluation budget to local integrand complexity. On benchmark integration problems and a model evidence computation for an epidemiological model, Hierarchical Bayesian Quadrature achieves substantial gains over standard Bayesian Quadrature on nonstationary integrands while matching its performance on stationary ones.