Causal Attribution

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2 papers in the last four weeks, down 60% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 35

Sep 28, 2026cs.AI

DoAtlas-2: A Foundation for Self-Evolving Causal Biomedical Discovery

We introduce DoAtlas-2, a foundation for self-evolving causal biomedical discovery that organizes knowledge around causal mechanisms and advances through external evidence from human populations. DoAtlas-2 integrates 771 research resources covering more than 720,000 participants in 48 countries, from longitudinal clinical phenotypes, medical imaging, and continuous physiological signals to eight molecular layers, together with an evidence network of approximately 4.7 million literature-derived records over 93,566 concepts and 149,383 candidate causal relations. DoAtlas-2 autonomously formulates research questions from evidence gaps and unresolved mechanisms, prespecifies their causal designs, and generates validated analyses. Supporting, challenging, and unresolved results continuously revise mechanistic interpretations, the causal evidence state, and the discovery frontier, so that DoAtlas-2 self-evolves within a closed loop of hypothesis generation, empirical testing, and renewed discovery. DoAtlas-2 has systematically evaluated 2,031 research questions. In the Human Phenotype Project (HPP), it formulated 4,014 candidate pathway questions across vascular, early-glycemic, and hepatic-metabolic systems, and screening of the first 1,079 yielded statistical support for 756. Representative studies identify blood pressure as a convergence node linking adiposity, hepatic, and lipid phenotypes to vascular outcomes, and show that an adiposity-inflammation-blood-pressure pathway is largely attenuated by joint adjustment for body mass index (BMI) and smoking. The discovered vascular network constitutes a completely interpretable predictive foundation, admitting exact attribution of every prediction and closed-form mediation effects. DoAtlas-2 thereby unifies causal mechanism discovery, population-evidence testing, and interpretable prediction within one continuously evolving foundation.

Yulong Li, Rong Xia, Yuxuan Zhang +12

MBZUAI

Causal Discovery Causal Attribution Autonomous Scientific Discovery Biomedical KGs

Sep 22, 2026cs.AI

CausalLoss-Fin: Attributing Financial-Agent Loss to Decisions and Infrastructure Faults

When an agent handling a payment exception loses money, the agent-step attribution methods this paper compares against will name one of its actions. They will do so even when a settlement message was dropped and the agent never had a chance: they intervene on agent actions and do not expose infrastructure faults as intervenable variables, so every dollar they explain is charged to a decision. We take a benchmark whose fault process is explicit and replayable, decompose each episode's realised delivery schedule into named, individually repairable messages, and intervene on both the agent's choices and the infrastructure's. A telescoping identity splits any policy's loss exactly three ways: an infrastructure effect, a policy differential against the best implementable policy, and a reference-policy residual. Two of the three can be negative, so none is a share; Shapley then divides the first into signed allocations over individual messages. One result is structural and needs no corpus: an agent-only baseline identifies no infrastructure cause, because its model contains no variable that could name one. What 545 planted episodes across 3 policies measure is the size of that consequence. It misfiles 100% of infrastructure episodes and charges $114,383.40 to the agent. Repairing what it names recovers 0.0% of the available loss; repairing a minimal sufficient set recovers 100.0%. Scoring messages one at a time is not merely imprecise: 27.8% (95% CI: 23.3--32.3%) of episodes do not decompose additively. We evaluate deterministic programmatic policies rather than language-model agents, which is what makes replay exact and which limits external validity to stochastic agents. The prevalence figures are properties of this generator, not field rates.

Abhishek Sharma

Agent Failure Analysis Financial Services Causal Attribution Shapley Value Attribution Fine-Grained Credit Assignment

Sep 3, 2026cs.AI

A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

Explaining why a specific outcome occurred, and which inputs deserve the blame or credit, is central to philosophical, scientific, and policy analysis. Existing tools split into two camps. The theory of actual causality (AC) gives principled verdicts, but only for toy-sized models, because computing them requires enumerating counterfactual scenarios. Scalable attribution methods like SHAP (or even causal SHAP) at least partially ignore the causal structure that generated the data, and can give answers that conflict with a careful causal analysis. We close this gap with Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI). PCI builds on actual causality and on Pearl's notions of probability of necessity and sufficiency, but recasts the question of explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model that is easily approximated via Monte Carlo. By specifying a distribution over "candidate explanations," a distribution over counterfactual values, and a scoring function, PCI provides tractable, causally grounded, graded explanations, generalizing AC and Pearl's probability of causation as degenerate cases. We evaluate PCI in synthetic and real-world examples, spanning consistency checks with AC, scaling experiments, complex continuous-valued dynamical systems, and a real-world deployed causal machine learning model trained on millions of datapoints.

Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman +7

Basis Research Institute · Sorbus AI · Massachusetts Institute of Technology +3

Structural Causal Models Actual Causality Causal Attribution Causal Inference Causal Explanation

Sep 1, 2026cs.AI

EDGE: Error Dependency Graph-Guided Multi-Error Attribution in Multi-Agent LLM Systems

Large language model (LLM) agent failures often contain multiple related errors rather than a single mistake. Existing attribution methods usually identify a responsible agent, step, or root cause, but do not explicitly model dependency between errors. We introduce EDGE, an Error Dependency Graph-guided multi-Error attribution framework. EDGE constructs an error dependency graph from observed error events and validates a reliable causal subset through counterfactual rollout. The inference graph guides a two-stage LLM-as-judge detector for error attribution, and the intervention-validated subgraph provides a more reliable basis for explanation and repair analysis. Experiments on TRAIL and MAST show that EDGE improves category-level multi-error attribution across most evaluated models and settings. Experiments with adapted Who&When-style prompts show that the graph helps across prompting strategies. These results suggest that dependency structure is a useful diagnostic prior for agent failures beyond isolated root-cause prediction.

Jun Hou, Priya Pitre, Yi Fang +1

Virginia Tech

Agent Failure Analysis Multi-Agent LLM Systems Causal Attribution

Sep 1, 2026cs.CY

Causal Evidentiary Governance for High-Risk Machine Learning Systems

Machine learning systems deployed for credit, hiring, and resource distribution are increasingly subject to regulatory oversight from policies such as the EU AI Act and GDPR. Current fairness governance practices rely on observational fairness metrics, post-hoc explainability, and immutable audit logs, but provide limited support for causal attribution and efficient evidentiary verification. We introduce Causal Evidentiary Governance (CEG), a framework in which regulated institutions commit to a versioned directed acyclic graph (DAG) that partitions causal pathways into allowable and disallowed groups. The Causal Harm Rate measures prediction variation attributable to disallowed causal pathways. Each decision is accompanied by a signed Decision-Evidence Packet (DEP), cryptographically binding the prediction to a digest of the published DAG and path-specific attributions. DEP digests can be appended to a Merkle tree to enable logarithmic-cost inclusion proofs. We validate CEG through a two-layer empirical methodology using demographic summaries from four years of PMA credit supervisory data to construct 10,000 synthetic credit applicants across four strategic DAG counterfactuals. Causal Harm Rate isolates injected causal effects more clearly than demographic parity or equalized odds. Cross-model validation and ablation studies assess robustness. Evaluation on the German Credit dataset shows that harm associated with specific causal pathways can be substantially understated by associational fairness metrics. Finally, a proof-of-concept implementation demonstrates operationally plausible throughput and highlights relevant performance tradeoffs.

Samah Kareem, Barış Çeliktaş

Department of Computer Engineering, Isik University, Istanbul, Türkiye. · Department of Computer Engineering, I¸sık University, Istanbul, Türkiye.

Algorithmic Auditing Algorithmic Accountability Algorithmic Fairness Causal Attribution

Aug 13, 2026cs.MA

Discovering Efficient and Explainable Communication Topologies for LLM-based Multi-Agent Systems via Causal Inference

The performance of large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems (MAS) largely depends on effective communication topologies. Existing topology generation methods, however, typically learn communication topologies through black-box optimization driven solely by task-level rewards. While effective, such optimization provides little insight into why particular communication edges are selected, making it difficult to identify the critical communication subgraphs responsible for successful collaboration. To address this limitation, we propose E2-Explainer, a model-agnostic framework for providing interpretable explanations of communication topologies produced by arbitrary topology generators. Specifically, we formulate topology explanation as a causal attribution problem that identifies compact communication subgraphs supported by edge-level evidence of task preservation. We obtain this evidence with a Granger-style objective that measures how masking each communication channel changes the task outcome and the stability of the final response. The resulting budgeted subgraphs are then distilled into an amortized explainer, enabling efficient post-hoc explanation without repeated edge-level evaluations at deployment. Extensive experiments on multiple reasoning and coding benchmarks demonstrate that E2-Explainer identifies critical communication subgraphs that preserve successful collaboration. These subgraphs can also be executed directly to prune redundant communication edges, substantially reducing communication costs while maintaining competitive task performance.

Junzhi Li, Peng He, Qirui Ji +3

University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · National Key Laboratory of Space Integrated Information System, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences · Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications

Multi-Agent LLM Systems Causal Attribution Multi-Agent Communication

Aug 12, 2026cs.AI

CAS: A Causal Attribution Score for Local and Global Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Predictive explanation methods attribute a model output; they do not, by themselves, attribute an intervention effect on the real-world outcome. We introduce the Causal Attribution Score (CAS), a compact score architecture for causal explanation. CAS starts from an identified interventional coalition game, allocates the joint intervention contrast with causal Shapley contributions, and converts those raw outcome-scale effects into Local CAS, Signed Local CAS, and two complementary Global CAS summaries. The innovation is not a new Shapley formula, but a local-to-global causal reporting layer with an explicit intervention target. In the known-truth benchmark, eight repeated primary-interaction simulations (n = 2,200 each, three actions) gave mean Local CAS MAE of 0.107 for coalition-aware CAS, compared with 0.173 for one-at-a-time normalisation and 0.213 for a global normalised absolute ATE vector. The paired advantage over one-at-a-time normalisation increased from -0.003 under additivity to 0.091 under strong interactions. On both empirical DoubleML datasets, 401(k) eligibility/net financial assets (n = 9,915) and Pennsylvania reemployment bonus/unemployment duration (n = 5,099), predictive SHAP/TreeSHAP rankings differed materially from Feature-CAS rankings of treatment-effect modifiers. In Pennsylvania, dep1 (exactly one dependent) moved from predictive global rank 13 to Feature-CAS rank 2 and was the leading local Feature-CAS modifier. These results isolate the added value of separating what predicts the outcome from what explains heterogeneity in an estimated causal effect.

Michael Georgiades, Charalambia Varnava

Department of Computer Science Neapolis University Pafos Cyprus · CaSToRC The Cyprus Institute Nicosia, Cyprus

Feature Attribution Causal Attribution Causal Explanation Causal Interpretability Explainability Evaluation

Aug 6, 2026cs.CL

ConstructCIE: A Dataset for Extracting Causal Information from Construction Accident Narratives

Construction accident narratives contain rich causal information, but the evidence is often implicit, long-span, and distributed. We introduce ConstructCIE, a manually annotated dataset for Causal Information Extraction from OSHA construction accident reports. The dataset uses a hierarchical schema for accident types, causal factors, sub-causal factors, and supporting evidence spans. We evaluate supervised sequence taggers and instruction-tuned LLMs in an end-to-end hierarchical extraction setting. Results show that most evaluated models achieve strong accident-type prediction and recover broad causal meaning but remain limited in precise span-level extraction. JHE generally achieves stronger exact and soft matching, while IHE sometimes achieves higher keyword F1. Error distributions vary by extraction strategy, but evidence-selection and span-boundary errors remain common. These findings show that reliable Causal Information Extraction for construction accidents requires stronger domain grounding and more accurate evidence extraction.

Hung Nguyen, Jaehoon Lee, Namgyun Kim +1

Department of Computer Science, Texas A&M University · Department of Construction Science, Texas A&M University

Document Information Extraction Causal Attribution

Aug 4, 2026cs.AI

Computing Actual Causes for Neural Network Predictions under Structured Causal Inputs

Explaining the predictions of neural networks is a central challenge in trustworthy AI. Existing explanation methods, such as those based on feature attribution or minimal sufficient sets, typically treat input features as independent, which can yield misleading explanations when inputs exhibit structured dependencies. We address this by formalizing explanations as Halpern-Pearl (HP) actual causes, modeling input dependencies using Boolean Structural Causal Models (SCMs). We compute HP causes by applying bound propagation and branch-and-bound techniques, while providing formal guarantees of completeness and minimality. Our experiments show that we substantially outperform brute-force and ILP baselines in scalability, and outperform heuristic search as graph size grows, computing all minimal actual causes on instances with search spaces of up to

2.3\times10^{13}

candidate (cause, contingency) pairs, on SCMs with up to 28 nodes, within a 180s per-instance budget. In a case study, we further show that ignoring input dependencies inflates the number of reported causes, 14.9% of which are spurious under our SCM.

Jannick Strobel, Muqsit Azeem, Stefan Leue

University of Konstanz

Branch and Bound Actual Causality Causal Attribution Neural Network Interpretability Causal Reasoning Causal Explanation

Jul 28, 2026cs.AI

From Training to Deployment: Post-Hoc Causal Feature Identification via Sensitivity Ratios

Given a model that is already trained, which features does it rely on causally versus spuriously? Existing methods require access to the training procedure and cannot answer this post-hoc. We introduce the \textbf{Normalised Sensitivity Ratio~(NSR)}, a post-hoc, model-agnostic diagnostic for this question under a structured-shift regime: environments differ primarily in the mean of spurious features while the causal mechanism and causal marginals remain stable, as in multi-site clinical data or multi-batch genomics. Within this regime, causal features induce constant model sensitivity across environments while spurious features track shift. NSR formalises this as the squared coefficient of variation of per-environment sensitivity. Under a linear structural causal model (SCM) with

K\ge3

non-degenerate environments, NSR achieves exact identification (Theorem~1). We fully characterise failure: weak shifts (

O(\varepsilon^4)

collapse), degenerate geometry, and proxy attenuation (

O((1-α)^4)

), giving practitioners quantitative criteria for assessing whether the regime holds. Finite-sample rates are

O_p(n^{-1})

under the null and

O_p(n^{-1/2})

under the alternative. Experiments confirm all theoretical predictions on synthetic data (area under the ROC curve [AUROC]

= 1.000

under conditions satisfying the regime), show consistent rankings across five model families (Kendall

τ\ge0.529

), and recover six of eight causal features on bike-sharing data (Precision@7

= 0.75

) without modifying any trained model.

Athanasios Vlontzos, Giorgos Papanastasiou, Bernhard Kainz +1

Hologen AI London, UK · Mathematics Research Centre Academy of Athens Athens, GR · FAU Erlangen Nuremberg Imperial College London Erlangen, DE & London, UK +1

Feature Attribution Causal Attribution Causal Interpretability Sensitivity Analysis

Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Encoding Invisible Causation for Bridge Diagnostic Agents: Triple-Guided Retrieval-Augmented Fine-Tuning with QLoRA

Bridge infrastructure deteriorates gradually, yet its root causes---salt intrusion, freezing, fatigue cracking, and others---remain invisible to the naked eye. Expert diagnosis relies on tacit knowledge built over years of practice. We address the challenge of automating this latent causal reasoning by proposing a Damage Cause Encoder that classifies 10-class damage causes from visible damage descriptions

S_i

for use in autonomous bridge diagnostic agents. Our approach chains three components: (i)Knowledge Triple Extraction---a large language model extracts causal triples of the form (damage

\xrightarrow{\mathtt{caused\_by}}

cause) from 15--35 diagnostic PDF manuals and indexes them in a FAISS vector store; (ii)Retrieval-Augmented Context---at training and inference time, relevant causal triples

\mathcal{C}_i

are retrieved and concatenated with

S_i

, converting implicit domain knowledge into explicit Encoder context; (iii)Systematic Fine-tuning Comparison---we conduct a rigorous comparison of LoRA, QLoRA, and QA-LoRA on a fixed Golden Testset (116 stratified samples), demonstrating that QLoRA achieves the optimal trade-off: identical test accuracy (87.07%) to full-precision LoRA, 11% faster inference, 72% lower GPU memory, and superior generalization across diverse unseen inputs. A controlled Golden Testset---stratified, deduplicated, and difficulty-tagged---is introduced as a reusable benchmark contribution. QLoRA further outperforms LoRA by 13 percentage points on a 100-sample diverse evaluation spanning all 10 damage cause classes.These findings enable memory-efficient, high-accuracy diagnostic agents on consumer-grade hardware for edge deployment.

Takato Yasuno

Causal Attribution Low-Rank Adaptation Causal Reasoning in Language Models Quantization-Aware LoRA Structural Health Monitoring

Jul 16, 2026cs.AI

Analytic Abduction: Causal Decomposition and Governed Commitment for Human--AI Coordination

Abductive reasoning operates in two directions. The synthetic mode builds explanations from available hypotheses; the analytic mode, conversely, identifies the latent factors whose interaction accounts for a complex observed state. This paper develops the analytic mode as a non-greedy, risk-sensitive discipline of commitment, in which candidate factors coexist and interact, resolving into committed conclusions only when explicit governance conditions are met. The formal core is the

κ

-

τ

apparatus:

κ

encodes the epistemic interaction among hypotheses, and

τ

sets a commitment threshold calibrated to the decision's stakes. The central contribution is the causal cluster, a structured object recording which latent factors participate in a decomposition, with what weights and interaction structure, together with a two-level architecture (intra-cluster

κ^*

, inter-cluster

κ^{**}

) that guards against causal misattribution. Demonstrated in epidemiological crisis decomposition and adversarial cyber threat analysis, the framework's contribution to human-AI reasoning is the legibility of suspended decomposition as a shared coordination object, providing structural resistance to premature convergence. In practice, the decision-maker is handed not a single imposed answer but the competing explanatory scenarios, weighted by plausibility and paired with the evidence that would resolve between them, so that sound action is possible even before the ambiguity is resolved.

Remo Pareschi

Stake Lab, University of Molise, Italy

Abductive Reasoning Causal Attribution Causal Explanation Human-AI Collaboration

Jul 6, 2026cs.CL

Faithfulness to Refusal: A Causal Audit of Neuron Selectors

Attribution scores increasingly identify which neuron rows of a language model matter for applications such as pruning, interpretability, and editing for safety, yet whether they identify causally important rows is rarely tested directly. We address this with two paired audits built on one-shot neuron-row zeroing. We first audit selectors at the language-modeling level: attribution methods substantially outperform activation and magnitude-based baselines at identifying dispensable rows across five LLMs. We then adapt the same intervention into a behavior test by driving it with a contrastive harmful-versus-benign signal; the attributed rows are sufficient to install refusal on hate and crime while keeping benign over-refusal low and preserving language model fluency, and specific in that layer-matched random controls at the same depths fail. Highly rank-stable selectors can be among the least causally valid. Refusal moreover lives in a redundant subspace, where different attribution methods install it through largely disjoint row sets, so the recovered edit is one realization of a sufficient set rather than a unique mechanism. Together, these findings show that rank-stability proxies miss the kinds of selector failures a direct causal audit can surface.%

Ananth Eswar, Pratinav Seth, Utsav Avaiya +1

Lexsi Labs · Work done while at Lexsi Labs.

Transformer Interpretability Feature Attribution LLM Auditing LLM Refusal Causal Attribution Causal Interventions in Language Models+1

Jul 2, 2026cs.AI

Actual causality in fault trees

Fault trees are a widely used as effective risk models for complex systems, answering the question "what can go wrong?", especially through minimal cut set analysis. We study fault trees from the perspective of Halpern & Pearl's theory of actual causality. This allows us to use fault trees to answer the question "why has it gone wrong?", which is fundamental to failure diagnostics. We give a complete classification of each of the different notions of actual causality in terms of the fault tree's graph structure and logical structure, and show how minimal cut sets give rise to actual causes.

Georgiana Caltais, Milan Lopuhaä-Zwakenberg, Mariëlle Stoelinga

University of Twente, The Netherlands · Radboud University, The Netherlands

Actual Causality Causal Attribution Causal Reasoning Root Cause Analysis Fault Diagnosis

Jun 30, 2026cs.LO

Beyond But-for Test: Counterfactual Explanation in Abstract Argumentation via Actual Causality (Extended Version)

Counterfactual explanation in abstract argumentation calls for an answer to the what-if query: would the topic argument still be accepted if the status of certain other arguments were changed? Existing approaches are limited to the but-for test and fail to accommodate more refined counterfactual conditions. To overcome these limitations, we introduce an intervention-based counterfactual reasoning framework in abstract argumentation. Our approach encodes the acceptance conditions of arguments as equations, then defines an intervention operator that supports (1) changing sets of arguments simultaneously, and (2) fixing witness arguments to their actual labels. Guided by the refined counterfactual condition introduced in the Halpern-Pearl definition, our method goes beyond the but-for test, thereby correctly identifying causes in argumentation structures such as Preemption and Overdetermination. Through comparison, we show that our method surpasses prior methods in both expressiveness and reliability.

Siyi Liu, Muyun Shao, Beishui Liao

Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

Counterfactual Explanations Actual Causality Causal Attribution Computational Argumentation Causal Reasoning Causal Intervention

Jun 25, 2026cs.LG

The Curse of Multiple Mediators: Hidden Interaction Effects in Activation Patching

Activation patching is the primary tool in mechanistic interpretability. It attributes causal responsibility for a model behavior to each of its individual components by estimating its natural indirect effect (NIE). Re-deriving the activation patching estimand from causal mediation analysis, we find that the NIE does not solely capture the causal effect through the specific component. It also contains interaction effects (INT) that measure how much the component's causal effect itself depends on the state of other components in the model. A natural response may be to try to eliminate INT by adjusting the estimator or unit of analysis, but each of these potential remedies has predictable failure modes. We demonstrate these failure modes in the GPT-2 IOI circuit; components whose causal importance is conditional on the state of other components are either invisible or artificially inflated, and INT variance explains the previously documented instability of faithfulness scores. We prove that INT scales with the distance between clean and patched component activations, is negligible when the model is locally affine, and decomposes combinatorially into pairwise and higher-order group interactions. Despite its inevitability, INT is not a nuisance to be eliminated, but rather a diagnostic for interpretability studies. Its individual and group-level magnitude and sign signal when causal conclusions are prompt-dependent, and when greedy NIE-based component ranking will miss mechanisms only discoverable through combinatorial search.

Sankaran Vaidyanathan, David Arbour, Aaron Mueller +2

University of Massachusetts Amherst · Adobe Research · Boston University

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Attribution Mechanistic Interpretability Causal Inference Activation Patching

Jun 25, 2026cs.AI

OpenRCA 2.0: From Outcome Labels to Causal Process Supervision

Root cause analysis (RCA) poses a holistic test of LLM agentic capabilities, such as long-context understanding, multi-step reasoning, and tool use. However, existing datasets suffer from a fundamental gap: they label only the root cause, not the propagation path connecting it to the observed symptom, which largely simplifies the task to naive pattern matching. To support rigorous evaluation, we introduce PAVE, a step-wise labeling protocol that leverages known interventions from fault injection to reconstruct causal propagation paths. The mechanism is forward verification: reasoning from cause to effect rather than inferring backward from symptoms. Applying PAVE yields OpenRCA 2.0 (500 instances), the first cross-system RCA benchmark with step-wise causal annotations for LLM agents. Across 11 frontier LLMs, recovering the exact root-cause set succeeds in only 20.7% of cases on average. To locate where this difficulty lies, we relax the criterion and find what we call the ungrounded diagnosis: agents identify at least one correct root-cause service in 76.0% of cases, but ground that service in a verified causal propagation path to the observed symptom in only 61.5%. Outcome-only evaluation hides this failure mode; step-wise causal ground truth is the missing piece for trustworthy LLM-based RCA agents.

Aoyang Fang, Yifan Yang, Jin'ao Shang +7

The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen · Lero · The Chinese University of Hong Kong

LLM Agent Evaluation Causal Attribution AI Agent Benchmarks Causal Reasoning in Language Models Process Supervision Root Cause Analysis

Jun 23, 2026cs.AI

Beyond Shapley: Efficient Computation of Asymmetric Shapley Values

We address the problem of explainability in machine learning models through feature attribution methods. In particular, we consider a variant of Shapley values known as Asymmetric Shapley Values (ASV), which enables the incorporation of causal knowledge into model-agnostic explanations through the use of a causal graph. We show that in certain contexts in which the computation of SHAP is

\#P

-hard, the exact computation of ASV can be done in polynomial time. To extend this algorithmic result, we introduce a notion of equivalence classes over the topological orderings of the underlying causal graph, which is useful to reduce the time to compute ASV. In particular, we present a polynomial-time algorithm (in the number of equivalence classes) to compute it whenever the causal graph is a rooted directed tree. Finally, we develop an algorithm for approximating ASV in arbitrary causal DAGs which relies on a procedure to sample topological orderings uniformly at random. To implement this sampling mechanism we leverage known algorithms as well as simpler alternatives. Our experimental results demonstrate the practical viability of the proposed approach in realistic causal structures.

Ezequiel Companeetz, Santiago Cifuentes, Sergio Abriola

Departamento de Computación, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, UBA · Instituto de Ciencias de la Computación (ICC), CONICET

Cooperative Game Theory Feature Attribution Causal Attribution Shapley Value Attribution Causal Interpretability

Jun 23, 2026cs.AI

Difference-Making without Making a Difference

Over a series of seven papers, Andreas & Günther have introduced seven definitions of actual causation and have classified them as belonging to three different, competing, types of accounts: factual difference-making, counterfactual difference-making, and regularity-based. I show that their most recent - factual difference-making - definition instantiates all three types, thereby proving that these are distinctions without a difference. I further compare their novel account to the other six accounts on several crucial examples, revealing that this undermines all seven of their accounts.

Sander Beckers

University College London

Actual Causality Causal Attribution Causal Reasoning

Jun 20, 2026cs.LG

Local Causal Attribution of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Understanding the causal structure of a language model's thought process is a problem of significant importance for both transparency and safety. In this work, we take a local approach toward this goal by analyzing the causal relationships among individual components, termed units, of a given, specific chain-of-thought trace. We construct a structural causal model on these units and relate each unit to the log probability of generating (subsequent) output units. Our algorithm, termed AttriCoT, is a black-box method that performs attribution by estimating importance parameters in the structural causal model using

O(U)

forward passes through the model, where

U

is the number of units. Evaluation of perturbation curves across 5 datasets and 4 reasoning models shows that AttriCoT produces attributions that are more faithful to the model's behavior than alternative methods. The attribution results also reveal notable differences in thought structure between models and domains.

Dennis Wei, Yannis Belkhiter, Erik Miehling +1

1IBM Research.

LLM Interpretability Causal Attribution Causal Reasoning in Language Models Causal Interpretability Reasoning Trace Analysis

Jun 14, 2026cs.CV

Faithful Action-unit Causal Reasoning for Counterfactually Faithful Emotion Explanations

Multimodal models can name the action units (AUs) behind a facial emotion, but their AU->emotion rationales are typically plausible rather than faithful: nothing forces the AUs a model invokes to be the AUs that actually drive its prediction. We cast AU->emotion reasoning as a counterfactual-consistency problem between the rationale, the label, and a structural AU->emotion causal graph G, and propose FACR, which grounds the reasoner in an independently induced, polarity-aware G and trains a counterfactual-faithfulness objective: a do-intervention on an AU that G marks causal for a class must move the prediction, while one it marks irrelevant must leave it unchanged. Faithfulness is thereby both trainable and measurable through a matching interventional metric, which we evaluate against a known causal structure, the PSPI pain-AU composition, as no existing affective-reasoning benchmark allows. We are explicit that this metric tests fidelity to the supplied structure rather than its rediscovery: it asks whether the trained reasoner invokes the AUs the structure marks causal, on held-out subjects and a second dataset. Under subject-independent evaluation on UNBC-PAIN, the objective raises the agreement between the invoked AUs and the PSPI composition from a no-objective baseline of 0.08 to 0.57, at a small detection cost; an unfaithfulness control attributes the gain to the objective. On a cross-dataset emotion transfer, the objective likewise raises fidelity to G on a seven-class task (0.50 to 0.84). Finally, we attach a language verbalizer and extend the audit to the generated text: biasing each action unit's emission by its latent activation makes the rationale faithful by construction, so that ablating an AU removes it from the explanation, a property that transfers to a second language-model backbone, whereas a freely generated rationale is unfaithful.

Van Thong Huynh, Hong Hai Nguyen, Thuy Pham +2

Faculty of CSE, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT), VNUHCM, Vietnam · Dept. of AI, FPT University, Vietnam · Faculty of DSAI, College of Technology, National Economic University, Vietnam +1

Counterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations Causal Attribution Facial Expression Recognition Causal Reasoning Counterfactual Learning

Jun 13, 2026cs.CL

Not All Skills Help: Measuring and Repairing Agent Knowledge

LLM agents can improve without weight updates by accumulating natural-language skills from experience, but current systems entrust every decision about which skills to keep and how to apply them to LLM judgment alone. We argue that this conflates two distinct roles: generating a skill from experience is a creative act that judgment handles well, while deciding whether that skill actually helps requires empirical evidence across many tasks. Measuring per-skill causal contributions via randomized masking, we find that skill libraries exhibit pervasive causal heterogeneity: individual skills routinely help on some task types while hurting on others, yet their opposing effects cancel in aggregate, making them invisible to global curation methods. We propose ASSAY, a framework that separates generation from curation: it computes a per-skill causal attribution on a small development set, restructures the library offline, and suppresses skills with negative predicted effect for each test task. Across seven base models spanning four providers and two benchmarks (AppWorld and tau-bench), ASSAY consistently improves over prior skill-curation approaches. On AppWorld's hardest split, DeepSeek-V3 achieves 69.3% task-goal completion (47.4% relative improvement), a new state of the art among all published methods including weight-tuned approaches. On tau-bench retail, GPT-4.1 improves by 8.7% relative, advancing past o4-mini, o1, and GPT-4.5 on the public leaderboard without any weight modification. Ablation traces the dominant gain to per-task masking, confirming that the bottleneck is matching skills to tasks at inference time, not removing bad skills globally. Code is available at https://github.com/aiming-lab/assay.

Yixuan Wang, Yiyang Zhou, Yiming Liang +4

UNC Chapel Hill · Purdue · NVIDIA

Causal Attribution LLM Agent Skill Learning LLM Agent Skill Retrieval Tool-Using Agents

Jun 6, 2026cs.LG

Causal Agent Replay: Counterfactual Attribution for LLM-Agent Failures

When an LLM agent fails -- issues a refund it should not have, calls the wrong tool, leaks data -- existing tooling answers what happened (observability) or whether it passed (evaluation), but not which step caused the failure. The obvious heuristics are wrong: the step that executes the harmful action is usually not the step that decided on it, and LLM-judge attribution is correlational and unreliable (state-of-the-art step-level accuracy on the Who&When benchmark is about 14%). We present Causal Agent Replay (CAR), which answers the question by intervention: it models an agent run as a structural causal model, applies a do-operation to a step, and re-executes the trajectory forward under the same stochastic policy, measuring the shift in the outcome distribution. We define an intervention algebra over agent steps, a single-step contrastive estimator whose point-of-commitment rule resolves a confound specific to stochastic run-forward, and a budget-bounded Monte-Carlo Shapley estimator that splits credit across interacting steps. Every effect is reported with confidence intervals. We validate against synthetic structural causal models with planted ground truth: the contrastive estimator recovers the pivotal step, and Shapley recovers a two-step interaction (0.44, 0.45, ~0; efficiency sum 0.909 versus the analytic 0.91). CAR is open source and runs on hosted or free local models.

Jaineet Shah

Agent Failure Analysis AI Agent Reliability Counterfactual Evaluation Causal Attribution Causal Inference Counterfactual Credit Assignment

Jun 5, 2026cs.LG

When Attribution Patching Lies: Diagnosis and a Second-Order Correction

A central goal of mechanistic interpretability is to identify which internal components causally drive a language model's behavior. Because these importance estimates serve as the evidence for identifying circuits, systematic errors can lead to the misidentification of the underlying mechanisms. While activation patching provides a gold-standard causal metric, its computational cost is prohibitive at scale. Practitioners instead rely on attribution patching, a gradient-based, first-order approximation whose reliability remains poorly understood. In this work, we characterize the source of this unreliability, demonstrating that the dominant error stems from the non-linearities in the downstream network rather than local curvature at the patched component. This insight yields three practical tools: (i) a reliability score to detect untrustworthy estimates, (ii) error bounds quantifying potential attribution mis-specifications, and (iii) a Hessian-vector-product (HVP) correction that eliminates the leading-order error with only one additional backward pass. In evaluations across five model families (124M-9B parameters) and both random-token and naturalistic (name-swap) perturbations, HVP is the only second-order correction feasible at larger scale, where standard baselines like Integrated Gradients become computationally prohibitive. In comparative experiments, a multi-step HVP variant matches or exceeds the accuracy of Integrated Gradients at significantly lower compute, outperforming prior second-order baselines. These improvements lead to higher-fidelity circuit recovery on standard benchmarks and support a Screen-Flag-Fix workflow that targets computational effort only toward the components flagged as unreliable.

Luyang Zhang, Jialu Wang

1Carnegie Mellon University · University of California, Santa Cruz

Gradient-Based Attribution LLM Interpretability Causal Attribution Mechanistic Interpretability Circuits in Language Models Activation Patching

May 26, 2026cs.CR

Certified Causal Attribution for Real-Time Attack Forensics in 6G Network Slicing

Cross-slice attack attribution in 6G networks requires identifying causal propagation chains through shared infrastructure in under 100 ms. Existing methods struggle to satisfy this strict SLA without sacrificing accuracy, because shared resource contention creates spurious correlations that are indistinguishable from genuine causal links under standard Granger tests. We propose DA-GC, a certified causal attribution framework that integrates resource-conditioned Granger causality with an axiomatically derived Resource Contention Model (RCM) to systematically block resource-mediated confounding. On a 15-slice production-emulation 6G testbed with 1,100 attack scenarios, DA-GC achieves 89.2% attribution accuracy at 87 ms. This represents a 7.9 percentage-point improvement over the strongest baseline at 2.7x lower latency, alongside demonstrated cross-topology generalization and concept-drift resilience. Crucially, DA-GC is backed by a comprehensive formal certification stack. We provide mathematically proven validity certificates for statistical soundness under serially dependent telemetry and piecewise-stationarity. Furthermore, we establish strict security bounds, including an adversarial utilization spoofing breakdown point of

δ^* \approx 0.95

, and define the minimum differential-privacy noise required for a provably private and robust deployment.

Minh K. Quan, Pubudu N. Pathirana

School of Engineering, Deakin University, Geelong VIC 3220, Australia

6G Networks Time-Series Causal Discovery Cybersecurity Causal Attribution Wireless Communications

May 24, 2026cs.CL

They Are Not the Same: Direct Causes Are Not Grounded Emotion Explanations

Emotion-Cause Pair Extraction (ECPE) was introduced to explain why an emotion occurs, but this goal is now often reduced to binary pair/non-pair prediction. This proxy is useful for direct-cause extraction, yet easy to over-read as evidence grounded emotion explanation. We show that this interpretation is only partially valid. In IEMO-MECP, 90.9% of original positives remain emo-cause and 95.0% of original negatives remain non-pair, confirming that the binary ECPE task is largely preserved. The problem is that direct triggers alone do not constitute a grounded explanation. Emo-context, an utterance that helps interpret a target emotion without directly causing it, appears on both sides of the original boundary and is enriched near binary uncertainty, showing that the binary boundary has no stable place for such discourse evidence. Across evaluated ECPE models, direct triggers are recovered more reliably than contextual support. Under shortcut pressure, this imbalance becomes consequential. Binary-trained models assign higher pair scores to nearby lexically similar non-pair candidates than to evidence supported but structurally harder emo-cause and emo-context pairs. Thus, pair scores can reward convenient attributions over grounded explanations. High binary ECPE performance indicates that a model can identify direct triggers; it does not indicate that the model has explained the emotion. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/panzhzh/ECPExsame.

Zhuangzhuang Pan, Yan Xia, Chee Seng Chan

Universiti Malaya, Malaysia · Suzhou University of Technology, China · VinUniversity, Vietnam

Relation Extraction Causal Attribution Causal Explanation Shortcut Learning

May 22, 2026cs.AI

MemAudit: Post-hoc Auditing of Poisoned Agent Memory via Causal Attribution and Structural Anomaly Detection

Large language model agents increasingly rely on persistent memory to store past interactions, retrieve relevant demonstrations, and improve long-horizon task execution. However, this memory mechanism also creates a practical security vulnerability: an adversarial user may inject malicious records into the agent's memory through ordinary interaction, and these records can later be retrieved to steer the agent's reasoning and actions. Existing defenses primarily focus on online intervention, such as prompt filtering or output blocking, but they do not address the post-hoc question of which stored memories are responsible after harmful behavior has already been observed. We propose \textbf{MemAudit}, a post-hoc causal memory auditing framework for memory-augmented LLM agents. The framework combines two complementary signals: (1) a counterfactual memory influence score that measures each memory's causal contribution to harmful outputs, and (2) a memory consistency graph that identifies structurally anomalous memories within the broader memory store. We evaluate MemAudit against MINJA, a query-only memory injection attack in which malicious records are generated and stored through normal agent interactions rather than direct memory-bank modification. Across both QA and reasoning-agent settings, MemAudit substantially reduces attack success rates under realistic post-hoc auditing scenarios. The results show that QA attack success is reduced from

70\%

to

0\%

, while RAP attack success drops from

83.3\%

to

0\%

.

Zhewen Tan, Yilun Yao, Huiyan Jin +9

AI Agent Auditing LLM Auditing Causal Attribution Agent Memory Poisoning Memory-Augmented Language Model Agents

May 21, 2026cs.LG

Represented Is Not Computed: A Causal Test of Candidate Algorithmic Intermediates in a Transformer

Structured prompts require integrating components according to task-relevant relations. How a network implements this integration is often hard to judge in language or vision, where those relations are rarely specified precisely enough to define a candidate internal algorithm. Arithmetic offers a cleaner setting. We study a Transformer trained on base-digit extraction: given

N

,

B

, and

D

, it must report the coefficient of

B^D

in the base-

B

expansion of

N

. The closed-form solution,

\lfloor N/B^D \rfloor \bmod B

, provides explicit candidate algorithmic intermediates. Across three seeds, the model reaches 99.83% exact-answer accuracy on held-out number-base intersections, establishing reliable task competence. Linear probes decode the intermediates, making staged arithmetic computation plausible. Causal tests then separate representation from use: within the localized route from the stream with

D

as input to the output positions, behavior depends on early

D

-selective communication, independent of

N

and

B

. Relatedly, a sparse circuit search finds mostly separate

N

,

B

, and

D

routes that combine late rather than the staged route suggested by the probes. Thus, the model represents the intermediates that make the closed-form solution plausible, but the identified localized causal route does not transmit them to the output stream. This case shows that probe-based conclusions can diverge sharply from causal observations, even when explicit algorithmic hypotheses are available.

Ishita Darade, Sushrut Thorat

MKSSS’s Cummins College of Engineering for Women, Pune 411052, India · Institute of Cognitive Science, Osnabrück University, Osnabrück 49069, Germany

Numerical Reasoning in Language Models Transformer Interpretability Neural Algorithmic Reasoning Causal Attribution Causal Interpretability Causal Interventions in Language Models+2

May 19, 2026cs.MA

CASPIAN: Online Detection and Attribution of Cascade Attacks in LLM Multi-Agent Systems via Cross-Channel Causal Monitoring

Cascade attacks in LLM multi-agent systems (MAS) arise when adversarial influence propagates across agents and leads to escalated system-level failures through complex agent interactions. Detecting such cascades is challenging, as their signals are distributed, tightly coupled across interaction channels, and often appear plausibly benign locally but may unfold quickly either within a single turn or gradually across multiple turns. Existing defenses, being largely local and text-centric, fail to capture such cross-channel, temporally coordinated dynamics of cascade propagation. Therefore, we propose CASPIAN, the first framework that provides a unified, cross-channel causal analysis of cascade behavior in LLM-MAS through online monitoring of dynamic influence propagation across agents. CASPIAN models multi-agent interactions using a unified, dynamic causal influence matrix across channels, estimated efficiently via a late-interaction conditional transfer entropy (LI-CTE) formulation, thereby enabling the detection of cascade onset from emergent system-level structure rather than isolated anomalies. It further performs online causal attribution, identifying the origin, bridge, and amplifier agents driving the cascade and reconstructing its principal propagation pathways, capabilities not supported by existing methods. Across diverse multi-agent frameworks and benchmarks, CASPIAN consistently outperforms semantic guardrails, LLM-based judges, and graph-based anomaly detectors in both detection accuracy and early cascade identification while operating with sub-1% relative overhead latency. These results demonstrate that unified cross-channel causal modeling is essential for reliably detecting and understanding cascade failures in LLM multi-agent systems.

Kavana Venkatesh, Jafar Isbarov, Saad Amin +2

Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA

Causal Attribution AI Agent Monitoring Multi-Agent System Security

May 13, 2026cs.MA

Counterfactual Reasoning for Causal Responsibility Attribution in Probabilistic Multi-Agent Systems

Responsibility allocation -- determining the extent to which agents are accountable for outcomes -- is a fundamental challenge in the design and analysis of multi-agent systems. In this work, we model such systems as concurrent stochastic multi-player games and introduce a notion of retrospective (backward) counterfactual responsibility, which quantifies an agent's accountability for outcomes resulting from a given strategy profile. To allocate responsibility among agents, we utilise the Shapley value and formally show that this method satisfies key desirable properties, including fairness and consistency. Building on this foundation, we propose a formal framework that supports both verification and strategic reasoning in responsibility-aware multi-agent systems. Furthermore, by adopting Nash equilibrium as the solution concept, we demonstrate how to compute stable strategy profiles in which agents trade off responsibility against expected reward.

Chunyan Mu, Muhammad Najib

University of Aberdeen · Heriot-Watt University

Algorithmic Accountability Causal Attribution Multi-Agent Systems Causal Reasoning