Conditional Distribution

Unlabeled-unlabeled (UU) learning allows us to learn a binary classifier from two sets of unlabeled data with different class-priors. It is a general framework because it includes a wide variety of supervised learning such as positive-unlabeled (PU) learning, noisy label learning, and similarity-based learning. Existing UU learning assumes that the test and training distributions have the same class-conditional densities. However, this assumption rarely holds in practice due to distribution shifts. This paper proposes a distribution shift adaptation method for UU learning that uses UU data in the training distribution and a few UU data in the test distribution. The proposed method is based on the importance weighting, which minimizes the test risk by using training data with estimated importance weights. Although existing importance weighting methods cannot handle UU data, we show that it can be done in a principled manner. Thanks to the generality of UU learning, our method can handle various learning problems such as PU and noisy label learning under distribution shift within a single framework while existing methods are usually tailored to a specific problem. Moreover, it does not require any assumption of the shift types such as covariate shift. We experimentally demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with real-world datasets.

We present tensor network representations for discrete maximum entropy distributions under expectation constraints. To this end, we introduce Computation-Activation Networks (CompActNets), a tensor network architecture that subsumes exponential families. By leveraging the geometry of the convex polytope of realizable expectation vectors, we represent any maximum entropy distribution in the same architecture. We exploit the fact that proper faces of this polytope correspond to the boundary closure of exponential families, which restricts the distribution's support. We then derive explicit representations for the support within the CompActNet architecture. The proposed framework suggests tensor network ranks as complexity measures for faces. Finally, a case study on Boolean statistics links the geometry of 0/1-polytopes directly to propositional formulas.

Current conditioned generative models heavily rely on score functions for guidance during training. When the generative model is a diffusion process with a singular diffusion coefficient and the underlying (conditional) densities either do not exist or are not smooth, we use causal optimal transport to define \emph{approximate} loss functions that identify a minimum-entropy control for guidance under minimal assumptions. Our approach relies on causal optimal transport and its characterization through the predictable representation property of (conditioned) diffusion processes whose associated martingale problem is well posed, à la Üstünel.

Generative data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, yet its theoretical effect on downstream generalization remains poorly understood. In this work, we develop a statistical framework for conditional generative augmentation and analyze its impact on classification risk. We formalize augmentation as a distribution-mixing process and show that the resulting risk distortion is controlled by both the augmentation strength and the class-conditional Wasserstein discrepancy between real and generated distributions. We further derive a capacity-dependent generalization bound based on Rademacher complexity, revealing an explicit trade-off between hypothesis complexity, augmentation intensity, and generative fidelity. Empirically, we evaluate the framework on binary and multiclass imbalanced classification tasks using Conditional GAN and Conditional WGAN-GP augmentation. Across datasets, CWGAN-GP consistently achieves lower Wasserstein discrepancies than CGAN, indicating improved distributional fidelity. However, improved fidelity does not necessarily translate into superior classification performance, with classical oversampling methods often remaining competitive. These findings support the central theoretical prediction that augmentation reliability is governed by distributional approximation error rather than predictive performance alone. Overall, this work establishes generative augmentation as a distributional perturbation process whose reliability can be quantified through Wasserstein-based measures and supported by finite-sample generalization guarantees. The proposed framework provides a principled foundation for evaluating synthetic data quality beyond classification accuracy alone.

Sampling from distributions conditioned on desired semantic properties is an emerging challenge in modern generative modeling. Metropolis-Hastings (MH) provides a principled route to conditional sampling, but requires access to exact pointwise target-density evaluations, which are not available in generative settings. Meanwhile, pairwise comparisons by humans or model "judge" are highly accessible and have proved valuable across diverse applications. We introduce Pref-MH, a general exact MH sampler for judge-induced conditional distributions using only stochastic binary pairwise comparisons. Our key observation is that the MH unnormalized density ratio matches the preference odds of the Bradley-Terry (BT) choice model. The central challenge is that while MH requires precise ratio computation, BT judges provide only sampled binary feedback. To this end, we develop a valid accept/reject rule whose resulting Markov chain provably converges to the target distribution. We further show that, for a fixed proposal kernel and budget, Pref-MH is optimal in the Peskun-Tierney sense among this class of exact reversible acceptance rules. Experiments on text generation and molecular design with LLM judges, as well as image generation with VLM judges, demonstrate that Pref-MH provides a practical and flexible approach to conditional sampling when comparative feedback is relatively easy to obtain.

The motivation for this paper is the investigation of the trade-offs implicit in probabilistic models used in machine learning. Models are often used to make predictions in the form of conditional probabilities. However, a pair of conditional distributions p(x|y) and p(y|x) may not be compatible with any joint distribution p(x,y). Given two such conditionals, determining if there exists a compatible joint is known as the compatibility problem. For discrete random variables, when the conditionals are encoded as probability tables, the compatibility problem has a known solution, which is computationally tractable. In this paper, we formalise and study a succinct version of the problem, encoding conditional distributions as arithmetic circuits. This is applicable to practical applications of probabilistic modelling in high-dimensional settings, including neural network models. We show that, for succinct circuit representations of conditionals, the compatibility problem is intractable. In the case that all probabilities are non-zero, the problem is co-NP-complete. In the case that probabilities can be zero, we give examples to demonstrate that several notions of compatibility can be distinguished, and we prove that multiple versions of the problem are PSPACE-complete. Furthermore, we show that, assuming the polynomial hierarchy does not collapse, there exist compatible succinct conditionals whose joint cannot be expressed succinctly. Implications of these results for probabilistic modelling and machine learning are discussed.

In this paper, we propose a local Sinkhorn divergence framework for conditional distribution reconstruction of multidimensional random fields. By utilizing the debiased Sinkhorn divergence, our proposed approach develops a differentiable and computationally efficient local distribution matching objective to train stochastic neural networks (SNNs). Furthermore, we establish theoretical generalization error estimates for our local Sinkhorn divergence framework, which explicitly characterizes the trade-off between approximation bias and statistical efficiency controlled by the regularization parameter and reveals how our proposed local Sinkhorn divergence loss function can be efficiently applied to learning multidimensional random field models. The proposed framework provides a scalable alternative to exact local optimal transport for conditional distribution reconstruction, offering a practical compromise between geometric fidelity, statistical efficiency, and computational scalability for uncertainty quantification and probabilistic scientific machine learning. Through various numerical examples, we compare our proposed local Sinkhorn divergence framework with other loss functions to train SNNs and with other machine-learning-based uncertainty quantification frameworks, demonstrating that the proposed local Sinkhorn divergence framework achieves an effective balance between reconstruction accuracy and computational efficiency while maintaining good scalability for multidimensional stochastic systems.

The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier remains a standard choice for categorical data, yet its widely used smoothing rules, such as Laplace, Lidstone, Krichevsky-Trofimov, and the $m$-estimate, all prescribe a fixed smoothing strength that ignores feature cardinality, sample size, and class imbalance, inducing a non-vanishing bias on modern high-cardinality tabular data. We propose hierarchical empirical-Bayes Naive Bayes (HEB-NB), in which each class-feature conditional probability is smoothed by a Dirichlet prior whose concentration is learned data-adaptively via Type-II maximum likelihood, enabling principled information sharing across classes while retaining closed-form inference. We further introduce HEB average one-dependence estimators (HEB-AODE), showing that the adaptive smoothing transfers cleanly to structural relaxations of NB. Theoretically, we establish a non-asymptotic $\ell_1$ error bound for HEB-NB matching the empirical-distribution minimax rate plus a vanishing data-adaptive bias, together with a matching Laplace-tight lower bound that yields a finite-sample, risk-level strict separation from Laplace. We further derive a plug-in excess Bayes-risk bound via total-variation tensorization and a population top-1 expected calibration error (ECE) corollary. Empirically, across 31 UCI and OpenML benchmarks, HEB-NB attains the best average Friedman rank on probabilistic metrics, with up to 22.1% log-loss reductions on high-cardinality datasets and consistent improvements of HEB-AODE over vanilla AODE. Combining HEB-NB with mutual-information weighting reduces top-1 ECE by 41%-70%, demonstrating substantial gains in probabilistic accuracy and calibration.

Many of the series that generative time-series models are benchmarked on place a large probability mass on a single value --- it does not rain, no ride is requested, no part is ordered. We report what happens when such data is evaluated carefully. First, the standard rolling-origin protocol can score a model on a window whose atom structure bears no resemblance to the dataset: on one benchmark the dataset is $42\%$ zeros and the evaluation windows are $13\%$, on another $47\%$ against $5\%$. This is not a cosmetic problem --- it reversed one of our own conclusions, turning the strongest occurrence model in our study into what looked like a cautionary tale. Second, we give a control in which CRPS is invariant \emph{by construction} while the temporal coupling is destroyed, which measures exactly how much that coupling contributes to a chosen statistic. Third, benchmarking seven models on a matched protocol over five seeds, an autoregressive hurdle beats a conditional flow on five of six datasets, by up to a factor of $153$, while the flow's own occurrence statistics vary by up to $62\%$ across training seeds and every baseline is deterministic. Finally, the model ordering is not the same under five different occurrence statistics, and the two that do not share a construction agree with each other least.

Ensemble forecasting aims to sample the conditional distribution of outcomes; whether AI forecast ensembles do this correctly in a joint sense remains largely untested. We train a diffusion model for probabilistic subseasonal coastal sea level forecasts at eight US East Coast tide gauge stations, with sea level derived from reanalysis, and find that marginal and joint forecast quality decouple: positive skill at every station and lead time marginally, while joint spatial structure is worse than climatological draws. A shuffle-based permutation decomposition reveals this failure is invisible to the energy score but detected by the variogram score. Lorenz-96 experiments across 0.7-170 equivalent years show the gap persists regardless of training volume and is reproduced by a linear baseline, indicating structural inadequacy of the learned distribution. A dynamical ensemble does not replicate the failure while a deterministic emulator does, suggesting it is specific to learned emulators rather than ensemble forecasting generally.

We introduce conditional cylindrical neural networks for approximating functionals of conditional laws in McKean-Vlasov equations with common noise. Fourier moments of the initial law and truncated signatures of the time augmented common noise are mapped by a mixture density network to a Gaussian mixture approximation of the conditional law. A cylindrical neural network then evaluates the target functional through analytic integrals against this predicted measure. Rough path well posedness and stability provide a conditional law map that is continuous in the initial distribution and the rough driver and agrees almost surely with the classical conditional law at the Itô Brownian lift. Combining this continuity with Fourier separation, signature uniqueness, Wasserstein density of Gaussian mixtures, and neural universal approximation, we prove an $L^2$ universal approximation theorem for continuous square integrable functionals. The numerical study implements the resulting two stage procedure on six examples, including non Gaussian initial laws, nonlinear drift, multiplicative common noise, and a two dimensional state. Independent particle references are used when no closed form law is available. The learned conditional law and functional approximations consistently improve on the empirical particle plug in, and additional experiments examine feature sensitivity, training from one terminal observation per common noise scenario, and Itô--Stratonovich consistency.

Factorized generative models commonly regularize a latent style variable z_s by matching its marginal distribution to a fixed Gaussian prior and interpret this as evidence that the style representation is independent of class information. We show that this interpretation is incorrect. Matching only the marginal distribution places no constraint on the class-conditional distributions, allowing the latent style to remain highly predictive of the label despite appearing perfectly Gaussian in aggregate. We derive an exact decomposition showing that this mismatch is one of four conditions required for factorized sampling, and demonstrate that eliminating it is necessary but not sufficient to obtain the intended factorization. Empirically, our case-study model and four representative latent baselines achieve near-zero global MMD while still allowing a linear probe to recover class labels with 74%--100% accuracy (10% chance level). Our model reaches 99.15% clustering accuracy, whereas externally evaluated class-conditional generation succeeds only 16% of the time. This leakage remains under six independent perturbations involving model capacity, curriculum, prior geometry, and supervision across two datasets. Four mitigation strategies reduce probe accuracy to 21%--46%, although they leave within-class dependence largely unchanged. A post-hoc conditional prior improves externally evaluated class generation to 0.97 on MNIST without retraining but reaches only 0.41 on CIFAR-10, while an empirical style bank achieves 0.88 on CIFAR-10. These results demonstrate that no divergence computed solely on the marginal distribution of the style latent can certify independence from class labels, and that reporting marginal statistics alone does not verify the property commonly claimed in factorized generative models.

The performance of generative diffusion models is determined by the choice of the reference diffusion process connecting the empirical and prior distributions. Conventional approaches typically trade off simulation-free training against finite-time generation. We propose a framework for designing the reference process that achieves both simultaneously. The key idea is to prescribe tractable time-dependent conditional distributions and then construct the reference process realizing them as its marginals. This framework reveals that score matching is not fundamental to diffusion-model training but instead emerges naturally through reversal of the reference process. We further show that conditional flow matching arises as the small-noise limit of the proposed framework.

Engression (Shen and Meinshausen, 2024) learns a conditional distribution by fitting a generative model $Y = f(X,\varepsilon)$ under the energy score, a strictly proper scoring rule. We provide a theoretical error analysis of engression implemented with deep neural networks. We decompose the excess risk into three components: the approximation error, the stochastic error, and the Monte Carlo error. Based on this decomposition, we establish convergence rates under the assumption that the target conditional generator admits a compositional smoothness structure.

Generative models are increasingly adopted in distributionally robust optimization (DRO), but existing approaches trade off model compatibility and adversarial structure: methods that accept arbitrary samplers do not restrict worst-case laws to a generator family, while generator-parameterized adversaries rely on model-specific access such as likelihoods, scores, or training data. We propose Generative Distributionally Robust Optimization (GDRO), a principled framework that accepts any sampleable conditional generator as the nominal model and restricts worst-case laws to a chosen conditional generator family. The key is the sampler-Sinkhorn pairing: samplers represent the conditional laws exactly, while Sinkhorn divergence compares their induced distributions without likelihood access and can be estimated from samples alone. The resulting population problem admits a direct finite-sample approximation and differentiable primal-dual implementation at the active decision context. For Lipschitz losses, the population Sinkhorn radius bounds downstream degradation. Across explicit and implicit generators, our method reduces rare-context inventory regret by 60% and SocialGAN navigation collisions by 50% relative to nominal decisions.

Motivated by learning from heterogeneous and overlapping data providers, we study a stylized model of distribution learning from restricted conditional samples. The goal is to learn an unknown distribution $p$ on a finite domain $[n]$. The learner is given a fixed family of queryable sets $\mathscr{S} \subseteq 2^{[n]}$, and each query to $S \in \mathscr{S}$ returns an independent sample from the conditional distribution $p(\cdot \mid S)$. Learnability is governed by the co-occurrence graph associated with $\mathscr{S}$: two domain elements are adjacent if they appear together in some queryable set. Pointwise consistency is achievable when this graph is connected on the target support. PAC learning requires more: it is possible when the co-occurrence graph is complete. The optimal sample complexity of PAC learning ranges from nearly linear to quadratic. Every query family with complete co-occurrence graph admits sample complexity $\widetilde O(n^2/ε^2)$, and this bound is tight in the worst case. On the other hand, if $[n]$ is queryable then ordinary sampling improves the bound to $Θ(n/ε^2)$, and this cannot be improved further even if every set is queryable. More generally, we identify hierarchical comparabilityas a sufficient structural condition on $\mathscr S$ under which the optimal complexity is nearly linear, $\widetilde Θ(n/ε^2)$, with pairwise query families as a canonical example. Finally, the full range of polynomial rates between linear and quadratic is attainable: for every $α\in (1,2)$, there exists a query family with optimal PAC rate $\widetilde Θ(n^α/ε^2)$.

Algebraic statistics characterizes statistical models through polynomial constraints, but it has mainly been used for analytically specified model classes. This paper studies the inverse problem: identifying probabilistic structure from vanishing binomials observed in empirical probability tensors. We treat the vanishing binomials of a toric model as its algebraic signature, and turn the ideal-variety correspondence of algebraic statistics into an operational procedure for structural learning that identifies a model by signature matching without parameter estimation. By restricting attention to a computationally tractable class of configuration matrices, which we call {\it the Kronecker-stack class}, we make these signatures explicitly enumerable. Within this class we define minimum invariant constraint (MIC) as the atomic unit characterizing each signature and generalizing the notion of independence. We tested this approach employing MICs on synthetic data as well as on corpus-scale real language data. The results suggested the utility of the method, revealing that the identified rank-one structures correspond to interpretable sets of words. These results open up a new avenue for applying algebraic statistics to computational linguistics.

Conformal prediction certifies that a classifier's prediction sets cover the truth, and that certificate is marginal. Many recognition benchmarks build distribution shift into evaluation, placing disjoint conditions in the training and test splits. Under that shift the certificate stays reassuring while per class coverage fails silently: on a real cross subject skeleton benchmark marginal coverage holds near ninety percent while the worst class is covered about seventy percent and ten of sixty classes fall below eighty percent. This class specific undercoverage stays hidden behind a single reassuring marginal number. Once the shift acts jointly on covariates and labels, the target class conditional score law is unidentified, so no label free method is at once per class valid and efficient uniformly over target laws consistent with the observed source joint distribution and target covariate marginal. The per class labels needed to recover every class threshold to a given tolerance grow as the inverse square of that tolerance and the logarithm of the class count, with matching bounds for classwise threshold procedures. Pseudo labels do not shortcut it: the best prediction powered estimator gains at most a small constant factor where coverage collapses. Across three real shifts and an image corruption benchmark, source label calibration recovers much of the gap while marginal coverage holds, and stops once it breaks.

Conditional diffusion models have become a powerful and flexible framework for learning complex conditional distributions from labeled data. In practice, however, acquiring high-quality labels is costly and time-consuming, leaving large volumes of unlabeled data unused. To address this, we introduce label-augmented conditional diffusion (LACD), a simple and effective approach that incorporates unlabeled examples by assigning them a designated trivial label and performing joint denoising score matching over the augmented dataset. We provide sufficient conditions guaranteeing population-level identifiability of the target conditional distribution under this scheme. Moreover, we establish rigorous statistical guarantees: when sufficiently many unlabeled samples are available, the sampling distribution produced by LACD converges strictly faster than the purely supervised estimator in total variation distance, and at least as fast in Wasserstein-1 distance. Extensive experiments on synthetic, image, and tabular benchmarks corroborate our theory and show substantial gains in sample efficiency and generative performance compared with the purely supervised estimator.

The stochastic fundamental diagram (SFD) provides a probabilistic description of the relationship between traffic density and flow or speed, enabling uncertainty-aware traffic modeling. However, existing stochastic models frequently struggle to accommodate rigorous physical constraints while retaining sufficient flexibility to capture complex nonlinear patterns. To address this, we propose a novel semiparametric SFD modeling framework by leveraging specially designed functional forms. These functions intrinsically satisfy physical constraints defined on the moments of the conditional flow distribution given traffic density while incorporating neural-network-based structures to capture complex empirical patterns. We derive a system of moment-matching equations to convert physical constraints into the parameterization of the conditional distribution, proving that a unique solution exists for the location-scale family of distributions, thereby guaranteeing model well-posedness. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the framework can be extended to non-location-scale distributions, including those requiring additional boundary constraints. Empirical evaluations on a real-world dataset reveal that our approach consistently outperforms representative baselines, delivering superior probabilistic accuracy and robust uncertainty quantification, particularly in congested regimes. Overall, the proposed framework provides a theoretically grounded and flexible foundation for stochastic traffic flow modeling.

Safe physical AI for robot actions are required not only likely to succeed but tested to be safe before execution. In practice, however, formal testing of motion parameters is computationally expensive, and the cost scales poorly with the dimensionality of the action space. When a proposed action is rejected by a tester, the naive response is to resample blindly until a passing candidate is found. This is wasteful, uninformative, and offers no convergence. We argue that rejection should instead trigger causal diagnosis: a principled identification of which action parameter caused the failure and what corrective value maximises the probability of passing testing under the interventional probability distribution. We propose a closed-loop framework that couples a Joint Probability Tree (JPT) with a Causal Circuit derived from a Marginal-Deterministic Variable Tree, enabling exact polytime computation without retraining, or additional data collection. The framework validates tractability of all interventional queries before the robot begins operating, and out-of-support candidates are detected and excluded from correction automatically. We perform experiments in a ROS2 simulation environment, and the framework demonstrates complementary roles across quality of distribution: under a high-quality JPT, the Causal Circuit reduces failed attempts by 10.3% and under a degraded JPT, it reduces total failed attempts by 37%. Every rejected plan produces a structured, interpretable causal report naming the primary cause variable, its observed value, and the recommended corrective region, supporting operator oversight and autonomous recovery without a separately trained failure model.

Boosting is one of the most successful learning techniques for standard classification and regression tasks. Its extension to multi-output prediction problems has found an increasing number of applications in recent years. Among them is the prediction of entire conditional distributions rather than single functionals, which can often be framed as a multi-output regression problem, for example multiple quantile regression. Addressing such problems with classical implementations of boosting is computationally challenging, because usually one base model is trained for each target at every iteration. More efficient variants of boosting have been proposed to speed up training, but they tend to be tied to specific loss functions and classes of base learners, usually decision trees. In this work, we study a modification of the gradient boosting algorithm, which we call parallel gradient boosting, designed to circumvent all these limitations. The core idea is to use a common descent direction for all training observations. By doing so, only one base model is needed at each iteration, regardless of the number of targets, which allows for considerable performance gains. We establish sufficient conditions for the convergence of the algorithm, whose practical use is introduced via the multiple quantile regression setting. We show that in such a setting, it provides predictions of similar quality to state-of-the-art boosting libraries such as XGBoost, while being faster by several orders of magnitude. Then, we evaluate the properties of the resulting conditional distribution estimator, which is shown empirically to outperform other nonparametric and semiparametric estimators, especially in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of mixed and/or missing covariates.

Stochastic-process models are, as a rule, far easier to simulate than to condition. Non-linear observations, non-Gaussian likelihoods, black-box information, and global constraints all induce intractable conditional laws, requiring bespoke, model-specific constructions. We introduce LatentFlow, a single framework for conditioning stochastic processes, with no learned neural approximations and no training. Our starting point is to write the stochastic process as the deterministic image of a tractable latent innovation, $f_0 = T_{\vartheta}(ξ_0)$, with $ξ_0$ sampled from a simple reference distribution. This reduces process-level conditioning to latent-space inference: pull the likelihood back through $T_{\vartheta}$, sample the resulting latent law with a tractable guided probability flow, and push the samples forward. This construction is provably exact at the level of the target law; in practice, approximation enters only through finite terminal noising, Monte Carlo guidance, and time discretisation of the continuous-time dynamics, each of which is explicit and systematically reducible. As LatentFlow is training-free, conditioning reduces to solving a single reverse-time SDE. This enables conditional sampling in seconds on a single desktop CPU across model classes that have never shared a scalable method: classical spatial priors, nonlinear stochastic dynamics, mechanistic models from the physical and life sciences, stochastic PDEs, heavy-tails and extremes, point and discrete-state processes, and neural or simulator-defined processes.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a natural tool for post-hoc conditioning of pretrained generative models, but in many applications the mutation kernels used by the particle system are biased approximations of an ideal Feynman--Kac flow. This paper develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for such SMC samplers. Under forward-smoothing forgetting conditions, we decompose the total error into a kernel bias, measuring the effect of replacing the ideal transition kernels by approximate ones, and a finite-particle Monte Carlo error. Our approach relies on extending local Doeblin-type conditions and Lyapunov drift arguments for Markov kernels to conditional distributions, thereby enabling a principled control of the bias. We then instantiate this general framework for conditional sampling with score-based diffusion models, and derive the first non-asymptotic error bound that jointly controls initialization error, time discretization, and score approximation in the reverse diffusion dynamics as well as finite-particle Monte Carlo error.

Strictly proper scoring rules identify the true conditional class distribution at population level, but their curvature can alter optimization and finite-sample behavior. We study three multiclass objectives: a class-aware quadratic Bregman score (CAPM), a strongly convex generator with constrained log-cosh ridges (HPG), and an HPG objective with an annealed probability-margin penalty (APMS). CAPM is treated as a structured instance of established quadratic scoring-rule theory. We derive conditional-regret, curvature, range, and logit-gradient bounds for CAPM and HPG, and prove exact penalty-range and conditional-target displacement bounds for APMS. Controlled five-seed experiments use Digits, Wisconsin breast cancer, and synthetic confusion and long-tail problems under clean labels, symmetric and pair-flip corruption, class imbalance, calibration evaluation, input corruption, and first-order adversarial perturbations. The candidates are close to cross-entropy on clean data and show descriptive gains in some noisy-label cells, but the five-seed comparisons are interpreted descriptively rather than as significance evidence. The selected noisy-label baselines perform better on Digits with 40% symmetric label noise, and explicit prior-adjustment methods perform better in the 30:1 synthetic long-tail experiment. Ablations do not show a consistent benefit from the candidate-specific graph, ridge, or margin components. The mathematical analysis establishes the stated properties, and the experiments delimit the empirical evidence; together they do not support a claim of general superiority.

Efficient uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for trustworthy large-scale learning. Existing UQ methods for regression tasks mainly operate under the assumption that the conditional label marginal satisfies single-peak parametric models, e.g., Gaussians, where the negative log-likelihood function simplifies to the mean square error. However, such single-peak assumptions fail in regression tasks featuring multi-modal distributions. On the other hand, semi-parametric methods which achieve strong regression performance for multi-modal distributions often lack efficient quantification on their prediction variances. In this work, we extend UQ techniques based on Variational Bayesian Inference (VBI) to two widely used semi-parametric regression models that yield histogram-like reconstructions of the conditional label densities: Quantile Regression (QR) and Classification Restoration (CR). Our approach introduces a unified, distribution-agnostic framework that simultaneously achieves accurate estimation of complex conditional distributions and highly efficient UQ. Theoretically, our method is grounded in novel formulations of QR and CR within the VBI framework, yielding analytic Evidence Lower Bounds (ELBO) to streamline training and a closed-form or analytically approximated predictive density for efficient inference. Empirically, we evaluate our methods on three large-scale regression benchmarks with multi-modal label distributions. Our framework outperforms state-of-the-art multi-modal regression baselines, and even matches predictive performance of computationally expensive ensemble models. Furthermore, by leveraging epistemic uncertainty estimation, our approach enables highly data-efficient active learning strategies.

Digital twin modeling, including control and data assimilation under model uncertainty, often faces an open-ended fidelity problem: adding variables, data streams, and time scales can indefinitely increase model complexity, ultimately producing systems that are difficult to maintain, validate, interpret, and use for stress or safety testing. As an alternative, one can seek parsimonious stochastic surrogate models built only on the variables needed to describe the relevant quantities of interest. We introduce a framework for discovering such variables from observational data by identifying which candidate inputs influence the full conditional law of a target quantity, rather than only its conditional mean. This distinction is essential in stochastic, coarse-grained, or partially observed systems, where dependencies may appear through changes in variability, tail behavior, multimodality, or uncertainty rather than through deterministic functional relationships. The framework couples conditional generative modeling, which learns the conditional distribution of the target given candidate inputs, with Gaussian-process-based analysis of variance (through kernel mode decomposition), which enables iterative pruning of non-influential inputs and interpretable structure discovery. In control settings, the resulting surrogate can be interpreted as a learned Markov decision process: the method identifies not only a transition model, but also the state, action, and memory variables needed to make the learned dynamics effectively Markovian. Across examples involving stochastic dynamical systems, missing variables, PDE control, reinforcement learning, and economic data, the discovered structures yield interpretable stochastic surrogates whose downstream performance is comparable to models trained on the full variable set.

The signature transform is a principled feature map for continuous-time paths, valued for its uniqueness and universality. Recovering a path from its truncated signature is, however, structurally ill-posed because the truncated signature map is not injective. We therefore reframe truncated signature inversion as a probabilistic problem -- learning the conditional distribution of a path given its truncated signature -- and adopt a signature-conditioned flow matching model as a practical estimator. This probabilistic formulation elucidates the fundamental difficulty of inversion: Bayes reconstruction error quantifies the irreducible uncertainty remaining after conditioning on a statistic. We derive the Bayes-optimal error under linear statistics, obtaining a closed form for log-GBM and numerically tractable formulas for log-fBM and OU, yielding a concrete theoretical baseline for model validation. This baseline upper-bounds the Bayes error under truncated-signature conditioning, since truncated signatures provide richer information than linear statistics. Experiments show that empirical reconstruction errors under linear-statistics conditioning faithfully align with the theory-derived baseline, while errors decrease when the statistic is replaced with truncated signatures. Moreover, generated paths faithfully recover the conditioning signature while preserving key distributional and temporal structures, indicating that the estimator is well-calibrated to the target conditional distribution. Together, these results establish a well-posed probabilistic framework for truncated-signature inversion, with applicability demonstrated on real financial data beyond the parametric process families covered by theory.

We consider the problem of uncertainty quantification for a pretrained classification model deployed under unknown distribution shift. We propose Audited Conformal Prediction (ACP), a method that leverages a small labeled dataset from the target population to train an auxiliary audit model identifying inputs where the legacy model is likely to fail. By integrating the audit model's outputs into the conformal prediction framework, ACP produces prediction sets that guarantee marginal coverage while achieving substantially higher conditional coverage in practice than existing approaches. We develop and analyze two complementary integration strategies -- one targeting marginal coverage with improved conditional performance, the other providing explicit group-conditional coverage guarantees -- and establish theoretical guarantees for both. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the method and illustrate trade-offs between prediction set size and conditional coverage.

Variational Inference (VI) is a fundamental inference technique in Bayesian machine learning for approximating complex posterior distributions. Traditional VI often relies on the mean-field factorization, which can inadequately capture true posterior complexity. Recent advancements have leveraged neural networks to model implicit distributions, offering increased flexibility. However, the practical constraints of neural network architectures still produces inaccuracies. In this paper, we propose a method called Implicit Variational Rejection Sampling (IVRS), which integrates implicit distributions with rejection sampling to improve the posterior approximation. Our method uses neural networks to construct implicit proposal distributions, and rejection sampling with a discriminator network that estimates the density ratio between the implicit proposal and the true posterior for refining the approximation. Towards this end, we introduce the Implicit Resampling Evidence Lower Bound (IR-ELBO) as a metric to characterize the resampled distribution's quality and derive a tighter variational lower bound. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms traditional variational inference techniques.

Decision-making under risk is typically studied through single-shot lottery choices. Yet many real decisions involve combinatorial risk, where risk arises from multiple risky components, so the lottery over outcomes is induced rather than given outright and can be costly to evaluate exactly. We introduce an investment-allocation task to study decision under combinatorial risk, where investing in a component raises its success probability and thereby reshapes the outcome distribution. Participants favor the option with the larger probability increment, and, when increments are equal, the option with the higher initial success probability. Revealing the induced probability mass function (PMF) substantially changes behavior, making participants less responsive to combinatorial-risk features and reducing choice variance. To explain these patterns, we move beyond standard benchmarks and hand-crafted hypotheses with symbolic regression to discover compact descriptive models. The discovered models rely mainly on combinatorial-risk features, such as the after-investment success probability, rather than exact evaluation of the full induced distribution. Behavior under the displayed PMF is then well explained by augmenting this model with a prospect-theoretic residual model. The results show that people navigate combinatorial risk primarily through its core features, shifting toward lottery valuation only when the induced PMF is displayed.

Conditional generators provide a natural tool for controllable generation, including settings where the desired condition is a new composition of observed attributes or experimental factors. In many applications, especially in scientific domains, such models are attractive to explore conditions for which real samples are rare, expensive, or not yet observed. However, this creates a circularity for evaluation: standard conditional quality metrics require a reference target distribution, but in the extrapolative regime that distribution is unavailable by definition. We address this problem with a post-hoc, per-sample trust score for assessing conditional samples using only the training distribution. The score combines two estimable quantities: global realism, measuring compatibility with the real data manifold, and attribute-wise faithfulness, measuring whether a sample is closer to the requested attributes than to plausible alternatives. We show that the score can recover meaningful comparisons across extrapolated generations, under a mild coverage condition on the observed attributes. These comparisons enable effective filtering, ranking, and abstention of generations and can be used directly on off-the-shelf pretrained models. In biological imaging, selected samples preserve real morphological structure better and improve downstream predictive performance, while similar gains are observed on controlled vision benchmarks. Finally, we show how the score can be applied during generation, enabling abstention before full decoding. Code is available at https://github.com/berkerdemirel/faithful-cond-gen.

A small Wasserstein distance does not certify that a transformation is admissible. In evidence-constrained, semantic, causal, physical, monotone, or risk-sensitive learning, one must ask not only how far two probability laws are, but whether mass has moved in a direction allowed by available information. We introduce conditional random ordered transport spaces (CROTS), a class of $L^0$-valued spaces of random probability measures equipped with a Wasserstein ambient metric, a closed stochastic order, hard and soft ordered transport discrepancies, and a conditional risk functional for evaluating order violation under an evidence sigma-field. The central object is an order-admissible transport geometry for random measure-valued dynamics, distinct from cone-valued metrics, ordered Kantorovich constructions, random Wasserstein spaces alone, and model-specific residuals for generative paths. We develop the foundations of CROTS as a space theory for reliable distributional learning. The results include well-posedness and duality for hard and soft ordered transport, soft-to-hard variational convergence, measurability and completeness of the random lifted space, reductions to classical Wasserstein and ordered geometries, ordered geodesics, constrained barycenters and projections, conditional risk-transport duality, and separation of order-violating distributions. The main stability theorem shows that random learning dynamics may converge in the ambient Wasserstein metric while its local admissibility leakage follows a separate conditional order-risk recursion. The resulting asymptotic order-risk floor provides a mathematical language for evidence overreach, ordered distribution shift, robustness failure, and admissible distributional dynamics.

Distributed uncertainty-management systems often combine local probabilistic models along aggregation trees chosen by communication, privacy, or scheduling constraints. The final density should depend on the weighted sources, not on the particular order in which intermediate nodes combine them. We study this requirement as an algebraic compositionality problem for binary fusion of weighted probability densities. The central question is when a local fusion rule can be executed hierarchically while remaining order-invariant. We establish a compositional boundary for local segment-valued fusion rules. Within the class of continuous binary rules with additive output weights and weight-only coefficients, order-invariant hierarchical execution characterizes normalized weighted linear pooling; norm-induced segment balancing realizes the corresponding coefficient. Smooth endpoint-to-candidate $f$-divergence balancing has a different local geometry: its quadratic expansion induces square-root effective weights, showing why pairwise solvability alone is insufficient for schedule-independent fusion. We show that this obstruction is local to endpoint-to-candidate binary balancing, whereas global divergence barycenters retain additive-weight local limits. Finally, Gaussian mixtures show how the same issue appears in finite model classes: exact fusion is compositional, whereas stepwise compression is compositional only under a congruence condition on unnormalized component measures. These results distinguish exact schedule-independent fusion from global aggregation objectives and local approximation heuristics.

Gradient observations can substantially improve Gaussian process (GP) surrogates, particularly in high-dimensional settings where function evaluations are expensive. However, exact inference with $n$ function values and $n$ full gradients in $d$ dimensions scales cubically in the joint state size, imposing an intractable $\mathcal{O}(n^3 d^3)$ computational bottleneck. We introduce TERA, a highly scalable derivative GP method based on target-specific exact gradient reduction. We prove that for stationary kernels, the gradient components orthogonal to the directions connecting the target and conditioning points are conditionally independent of the target function value; consequently, the exact conditional density is fully characterized by at most $m^2$ directional derivatives once a conditioning set of size $m$ is specified. By using these reduced, dimension-free conditionals as local factors in a Vecchia approximation, TERA effectively decouples $n$ and $d$ from the dense matrix inversion. This reduces the per-target evaluation cost to $\mathcal{O}(dm^2 + m^6)$ time and $\mathcal{O}(dm^2 + m^4)$ memory, leaving the underlying derivative GP model mathematically unchanged. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that TERA achieves state-of-the-art predictive accuracy while operating orders of magnitude faster than standard derivative GPs. Crucially, both computation time and peak GPU memory remain essentially flat with respect to $d$, enabling highly scalable inference in high-dimensional spaces.

Generations from large language models often fail to conform to desired constraints such as JSON schema. Existing locally constrained decoding (LCD) approaches enforce constraints by myopically masking out next tokens, resulting in biased sampling and degradation in performance. Recent work uses sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods to mitigate such biases, but designing effective proposal distributions or potential functions remains a key challenge. In this work, we propose a generic approach to construct proposals and potentials for SMC sampling from $p_{\mathrm{lm}}( \cdot \mid \mathrm{constraint})$. First, we show that constraints specified as finite automata can be tensorized for efficient execution on GPUs, which we use to construct globally constrained decoding (GCD) proposals. In addition, leveraging the fact that tensorized finite automata share the same circuit structure as hidden Markov models, we circuit-multiply them to obtain the probabilistic GCD (P-GCD) proposals encoding both logical and probabilistic information about the target distributions. We evaluate (P-)GCD on the tasks of function calling, keyword-based generation, and SQL generation. Experiments show that under the same SMC sampling setup, compared to LCD proposals, (P-)GCD converges faster to the target distribution with significantly fewer particles.

Engression is a recently proposed and effective framework for conditional distribution learning. Its multi-step Reverse Markov extension further improves generative flexibility by decomposing complex conditional sampling into sequential reverse transitions. Despite their strong empirical performance, rigorous finite-sample statistical guarantees for these methods remain unavailable. In this paper, under deep neural network parameterizations, we establish nonasymptotic convergence bounds for Engression by directly controlling the Energy Distance between the learned and target conditional distributions. For the Reverse Markov framework, we further develop an Energy-Distance-based chain rule that enables a rigorous analysis of error propagation across reverse steps. Our analysis yields corresponding excess-risk bounds that are near-optimal up to logarithmic factors relative to the classical minimax rate over a general Hölder class.

We introduce a testing-by-betting framework that leverages predictions on unlabeled data to enhance the power of sequential hypothesis testing. Given limited samples from the joint distribution of $(X,Y)$, and additional unlabeled samples from the marginal of $X$, we ask how unlabeled data can be used to hypothesize about the distribution of $Y$, and the conditional distribution of $Y\mid X$. We introduce an e-statistic and use it to construct a sequential test. Under standard distributional assumptions -- label shift or concept shift -- we establish that the test is anytime valid. Furthermore, we show that for binary data, the e-statistic has non-trivial power. Crucially, our approach retains these properties even when the underlying predictions are inaccurate. Through simulations and applications to large language models evaluation, we demonstrate power gains over baseline approaches, including prediction-powered inference. These gains persist even with relatively limited unlabeled data and when predictions have low accuracy due to weak correlation between $X$ and $Y$.

We argue, with systematic empirical evidence, that a large language model's political ideology is not a fixed point, but a conditional distribution $\mathbb{P}($position$\mid$context$)$ over a real political space. We evaluate nine current LLMs using a unified measurement framework anchored by VAA-CHES projection models, which map responses onto three validated dimensions (lrgen, lrecon, galtan) across six contextual axes. Our findings reveal high sensitivity to context: persuasive framing and under-represented languages displace coordinates by up to 0.57 and 0.52 units, respectively, while chain-of-thought reasoning often amplifies rather than dampens paraphrase instability. Despite this local plasticity, the model cohort occupies a remarkably narrow Overton envelope overall, occupying roughly one-third the spread of major European parties. Supported by a multi-trait multi-method (MTMM) analysis, we conclude that a single point cannot summarize LLM political behavior; it must be characterized as a shape. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/sakhadib/LLM-Ideoplasticity.

Language models trained on observed sequences are often described as learning the conditional distribution of the next token given previous tokens. This description is only conditionally correct. A model trained on realized token trajectories does not observe full conditional laws; it receives sampled continuations. Moreover, real language generation is conditioned not only on previous words but also on non-textual circumstances: facts, events, intentions, goals, beliefs, social context, and task-specific constraints. This paper distinguishes three objects that are often conflated: the full conditional language process conditioned on latent circumstances, the marginal text-only process obtained by integrating those circumstances out, and the model-induced distribution learned from finite observed corpora. The paper argues that interpreting model training as estimating the marginal text-only law requires strong assumptions of stationarity, representativeness, and ergodicity, assumptions that are standard in statistical estimation but problematic when applied to heterogeneous language corpora. Even if these assumptions hold, the marginal text-only law is useful only when the observed prefix is an approximately sufficient statistic for the latent circumstances relevant to continuation. In information-theoretic terms, usefulness requires that the residual conditional mutual information between the next token and the omitted circumstances, given the observed text, be small. The paper then extends this argument to heterogeneous training corpora. Finally, the paper interprets Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and tool use as conditional sufficiency devices.

Discrete probability laws underpin statistical modeling, yet the catalog of interpretable distributions has expanded only gradually through centuries of case-by-case mathematical derivations. We introduce symbolic density estimation (SDE), an unsupervised framework that automatically recovers closed-form probability mass functions by composing elementary analytic operations within a structured search space. Our method integrates domain-specific structural priors with evolutionary search and a validity-aware inference stage, and it extends to richer distribution families such as zero inflation and finite mixtures. To support systematic evaluation and future research, we contribute a benchmark dataset spanning a broad collection of commonly used discrete distributions. The proposed algorithm recovers all benchmark families with accurate parameter estimates. A real data application shows that it identifies concise and interpretable mixture models that improve goodness-of-fit over standard models.

Microsimulation models used by ministries of finance and central banks rely on parametric processes for lifetime earnings that capture only first and second moments of the conditional distribution and miss long-range nonlinear structure. We propose SAGA, a decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular panel sequences, paired with a split conformal calibration wrapper that delivers individual-level prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. Trained on the longitudinal Swedish LISA register over 1990 to 2022, comprising 2,143,817 individuals and 61,284,903 person-years, the model forecasts annual labor earnings at horizons of one to thirty years and aggregates them by Monte Carlo into present-discounted lifetime earnings distributions. Against the canonical Guvenen, Karahan, Ozkan, and Song parametric process and tabular and recurrent baselines, SAGA reduces continuous ranked probability score by 31.9 percent at the ten-year horizon and mean absolute error by 37.7 percent at the twenty-year horizon. Conformal intervals achieve nominal coverage to within 0.4 percentage points marginally and within 2.4 percentage points on the worst-case demographic subgroup. The reconstructed lifetime earnings Gini coefficient is 0.327 against the partially observed truth of 0.341 and the GKOS estimate of 0.378. Model weights, calibration tables, and a synthetic equivalent dataset are released for replication outside the protected SCB MONA environment.

Many decision-facing stochastic systems are observed through aggregate distributions rather than scalar trajectories: queue occupancies, mobility shares, public-health mixtures, generation-source shares, ecological compositions, and air-quality severity profiles all live on the probability simplex and evolve over time. We study causal (online) forecasting for these distribution-valued time series and argue that the transition operator itself should be structured around the simplex. We introduce CAST (Causal Anchored Simplex Transport), a successor-local operator that (i) retrieves empirical successors from causal context, (ii) stabilizes them with a persistence anchor, and (iii) applies a bounded local stochastic transport on ordered supports; every stage preserves the simplex by construction. We identify a structural failure mode, latent transition-kernel aliasing, where similar observed distributions evolve differently under different contextual regimes, and prove that any forecaster depending only on an aliased summary incurs an irreducible weighted Jensen-Shannon excess-risk lower bound, while the CAST hypothesis class contains the regime-aware Bayes successor; for ordered supports an additional Pinsker separation holds whenever the transported successor lies outside the no-transport anchor hull. On eleven public and simulated benchmarks spanning ecology, energy, diet, mortality, employment, air quality, severe weather, mobility, and G/G/1, G_t/G/1 queue occupancy, CAST attains the best average rank on both one-step KL (1.27) and autoregressive rollout JSD (1.91), winning 8/11 sections on each metric against a broad statistical, compositional, recurrent, convolutional, and Transformer baseline set, and top-2 on all 11 sections for offline KL. Component ablations and a controlled synthetic aliasing experiment corroborate the theory.

Rare diseases dominate the diagnostic challenge in medical imaging yet are severely underrepresented in clinical datasets, causing classifiers to fail on exactly the conditions where reliable detection matters most. Generative augmentation can supply the missing tail-class coverage, but coarse disease labels aggregate diverse subtypes and acquisition settings into multi-modal conditionals that bias generators toward dominant submodes, while a shared Gaussian source forces rare subpopulations through disproportionately long transport paths. We propose an offline strategy that introduces informative priors at two levels: first, we partition each coarse label into coherent submodes via Gaussian mixture modeling in the generative model's latent space; second, we learn subclass-conditioned source distributions that re-center and re-scale the starting distribution per submode, shortening trajectories and reducing within-subclass dispersion. To prevent degenerate solutions we impose explicit geometric control, moderately concentrating normalized displacement directions around learnable prototypes while capping path-length outliers. On long-tailed chest X-ray (MIMIC-LT, NIH-LT) and CT slice (CT-RATE) benchmarks the proposed method consistently improves tail-class generation fidelity and diversity (FID, IRS) and is a promising augmentation strategy that reliably improves downstream balanced accuracy and macro-F1 over a non-augmented baseline across modalities.

Distributional causal inference requires estimating not only average treatment effects but also interventional outcome distributions, including quantiles, tail risks, and policy-dependent uncertainty. As a method for distributional causal inference, generative adversarial network (GAN)-based counterfactual methods are flexible tools for this task. However, these methods have several limitations. First, the objectives of certain techniques do not coincide with the statistical risk of the identifiable causal target, and therefore provide limited theoretical guarantees regarding estimable counterfactual distributions or optimality. Second, they tend to rely on unstable density-based methods, such as density ratio estimation. In this paper, we propose GANICE (GAN for Interventional Conditional Estimation) with several advantages: it (i) clarifies the conditional interventional distribution for each treatment--covariate state as the causal estimation target; (ii) estimates the conditional distribution such that its averaged Wasserstein risk is minimized; (iii) establishes minimax optimality. GANICE achieves these advantages through the introduction of the extended Wasserstein distance, the incorporation of a cellwise critic in its dual, and an optimality proof based on Besov space theory. Our experiments demonstrate that GANICE consistently outperforms existing methods.

Generative models are powerful tools for sampling from a learned distribution $\mathcal{P}(Y \mid X)$, and inverse-design methods invert this map to find an input $x$ that produces a desired point output $y^*$. However, many design goals are naturally distributional rather than pointwise, incorporating the inherent uncertainty of $Y$ and targeting a specific form for it, a task not addressed by standard inverse design. To address this issue we introduce Conditional Distribution Matching (CDM), a new inverse-design problem class in generative modeling: given a joint distribution $\mathcal{P}(X, Y)$ and a target distribution $\mathcal{G}(Y)$, find an input $x^*$ whose induced conditional distribution $\mathcal{P}(Y \mid X = x^*)$ matches $\mathcal{G}$. We formally define two variants: Conditional Distribution Matching Sampling (CDMS) and Conditional Distribution Matching Optimization (CDMO). To solve these problems, we propose MLGD-F (Matching-Loss Guided Diffusion with a Fast inner sampler), a plug-and-play inference-time algorithm that combines a pretrained score-based diffusion model with a pretrained fast conditional sampler, requiring no additional training or fine-tuning. By leveraging single-step conditional sampling, MLGD-F enables tractable gradient computation, making the estimation of $\mathcal{P}(Y \mid X)$ both memory-efficient and computationally lightweight. We validate MLGD-F on synthetic benchmarks, structured image transformations, and generative editing optimization, demonstrating reliable recovery of inputs whose conditional distributions match diverse user-specified targets, including discrete mixtures and continuous low-rank supports.

Grammar-constrained generation is often combined with local vocabulary masking and speculative decoding, but the resulting sampling law is not the grammar-conditional distribution users usually intend. We show that any speculative decoder with local mask access, Leviathan rejection, and rollback soundness samples from the locally projected distribution $μ^{\mathrm{proj}}$ rather than the grammar-conditional distribution $μ^\star$. This extends the GAD impossibility result to speculative decoding; on Dyck grammars with Qwen3-8B, the total-variation gap can reach 0.996. We identify the future-validity function $Φ_t(y)=\Pr_p[\mathrm{valid\ completion}\mid y]$ as the missing correction statistic. The target distribution is a Doob transform of the base model with $h=Φ$, while local masking corresponds to setting $h$ to one. With exact $Φ$, our oracle decoder FVO-Spec samples exactly from $μ^\star$; with approximate $Φ$, we bound the resulting total-variation error. Because exact future validity is hard for general context-free grammars, we evaluate estimator hierarchies on tractable Dyck and finite JSON languages. OneStep reduces Dyck TV by 14% with under 1% throughput overhead, exact dynamic programming reduces it by 97%, and finite-language correction closes JSON gaps to numerical precision. All fidelity claims are scoped to enumerable grammars and token tries.

Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions is central to treatment risk assessment and counterfactual generation tasks. Existing approaches model the counterfactual distribution as a standalone generative target, without exploiting its relationship to the observational data. In this work, we show that under standard assumptions, observational and counterfactual outcome distributions are tightly linked: they have identical support and tail behavior, remain statistically close under weak confounding, and share any features of high-dimensional outcomes which are invariant to confounders. These properties motivate learning counterfactual distributions not from scratch, but via a deconfounding flow from the observational distribution. We formulate this problem via flow-matching and derive a semiparametrically efficient estimator based on a novel efficient influence function correction. We subsequently extend our estimator to target minimal-energy flows in high-dimensions, which we show can be especially simple targets between observational and counterfactual distributions. In experiments, deconfounding flows outperform existing debiased counterfactual distribution estimators, while also mitigating known failure modes of flow-based methods.

Probabilistic conditioning is concerned with the identification of a distribution of a random variable $X$ given a random variable $Y$. It is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications where modeling uncertainty is key. This problem has traditionally been addressed in machine learning by directly learning the conditional distribution of a fixed joint distribution. This paper introduces a novel perspective: we propose to solve the conditioning problem by identifying a single operator that maps any joint density to its conditional, thus amortizing over joint-conditional pairs. We establish that the conditioning operator can be approximated to arbitrary accuracy by neural operators. Our proof relies on new results establishing continuity of the conditioning operator over suitable classes of densities. Finally, we learn the conditioning map for a class of Gaussian mixtures using neural operators, illustrating the promise of our framework. This work provides the theoretical underpinnings for general-purpose, amortized methods for probabilistic conditioning, such as foundation models for Bayesian inference.

Constructing minimum-volume prediction regions that satisfy conditional coverage is a fundamental challenge in multivariate regression. Standard approaches rely on explicitly estimating the full conditional density and subsequently thresholding it. This two-step plug-in process is notoriously difficult, sensitive to estimation errors, and computationally expensive. One would like to instead optimize the region directly. Formulating a direct solution is challenging, however, because it requires minimizing a volume objective that is coupled with the conditional quantiles of the model's own estimation error. In this work, we address this challenge. We introduce super-level-set regression (SLS), a novel mathematical framework that successfully resolves this implicit coupling, allowing us to directly parameterize and optimize the geometric boundaries of the target conditional level sets. By bypassing full distribution estimation and leveraging flexible volume-preserving frontier functions, our approach natively captures complex, multimodal, and disjoint conditional structures end-to-end. Ultimately, SLS offers a new perspective on multivariate conditional quantile regression, replacing the restrictive assumptions of density-first methods with a direct geometric optimization strategy.

Sampling from unnormalized multimodal distributions with limited density evaluations remains a fundamental challenge in machine learning and natural sciences. Successful approaches construct a bridge between a tractable reference and the target distribution. Parallel Tempering (PT) serves as the gold standard, while recent diffusion-based approaches offer a continuous alternative at the cost of neural training. In this work, we introduce Conditional Diffusion Sampling (CDS), a framework that combines these two paradigms. To this end, we derive Conditional Interpolants, a class of stochastic processes whose transport dynamics are governed by an exact, closed-form stochastic differential equation (SDE), requiring no neural approximation. Although these dynamics require sampling from a non-trivial initialization distribution, we show both theoretically and empirically that the cost of this initialization diminishes for sufficiently short diffusion times. CDS leverages this by a two-stage procedure: (1) PT is used to efficiently sample the initial distribution, and then (2) samples are transported via the transport SDE. This combination couples the robust global exploration of PT with efficient local transport. Experiments suggest that CDS has the potential to achieve a superior trade-off between sample quality and density evaluation cost compared to state-of-the-art samplers.

ML climate model emulators are useful for scenario planning and adaptation, allowing for cost-efficient experimentation. Recently, the diffusion model Climate in a Bottle (cBottle) has been proposed for generation of atmospheric states compatible with boundary conditions of solar position and sea surface temperatures. Crucially, cBottle can be guided to generate extreme events such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over locations of interest. Diffusion models such as cBottle work by approximating the probability density of the training data. Here, we show use cases of the probability density estimates of atmospheric states obtained from this climate emulator. Most importantly, these estimates allow us to calculate likelihoods of extreme events under guidance. When guiding the model towards states including TCs, comparing the probability density under the guided and unguided model enables us to quantify how much more likely the guidance has made the TC. We show how these odds ratios allow us to importance-sample from the TC distribution, reducing the standard error of the probability estimate compared to simple Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, we discuss results and limitations of the application of model probability densities to extreme event attribution-like experiments. We present these early but encouraging results hoping they will spur more research into probabilistic information that can be gained from diffusion models of the atmosphere.

Comparing conditional distributions is a fundamental challenge in statistics and machine learning, with applications across a wide range of domains. While proposed methods for measuring discrepancies using kernel embeddings of distributions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) provide powerful non-parametric techniques, the existing literature remains fragmented and lacks a unified theoretical treatment. This paper addresses this gap by establishing a coherent framework for studying kernel-based methods to measure divergence between conditional distributions through what we refer to as conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD). The CMMD consists of a family of metrics which we call levels, with three special cases each using a different type of RKHS embedding: CMMD$_0$ (conditional mean operators), CMMD$_1$ (conditional mean embeddings), and CMMD$_2$ (joint mean embeddings). We additionally introduce a general level $s$ CMMD, clarifying the required assumptions, and establishing mathematical connections between the levels through the lens of operator-based smoothing. In addition to reviewing previously proposed estimators, we introduce a novel doubly robust estimator for the CMMD that maintains consistency provided at least one of the underlying models is correctly specified. We provide numerical experiments demonstrating that the CMMD effectively captures complex conditional dependencies for statistical testing.

We introduce Mira, a sample-based score for assessing the accuracy of a candidate conditional distribution using only joint samples from the true data-generating process. Relying on the principle that distributions coincide if they assign equal probability mass to all regions, we derive an analytic expression for the Mira statistic, whose average defines the Mira score. This formulation further allows us to compute theoretical reference values and uncertainty estimates when the candidate distribution matches the true one. This framework enables model comparison by quantifying the alignment between the conditional distribution of a candidate model and the true data generating process. Consequently, Mira enables Bayesian model comparison through direct posterior validation, bypassing the challenging evidence computation. We demonstrate its effectiveness across several toy problems and Bayesian inference tasks.

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs prediction sets with marginal coverage guarantees under the assumption that the calibration and test distributions are identical. However, under distribution shift, existing approaches primarily align marginal conformal score distributions, which is sufficient to preserve marginal coverage but does not control the conditional coverage error at individual test inputs. As a consequence, CP can remain unreliable in regions where the conditional score distributions are mismatched. In this work, we bound the conditional invalidity of CP under distribution shift in terms of the Wasserstein distance between the calibration and test distributions. This result highlights the role of invertible transport in mitigating conditional coverage degradation. Motivated by this insight, we introduce Branched Normalizing Flow (BNF), a two-branch architecture that normalizes a test input to the calibration distribution and transforms the prediction set of the normalized input back to the test distribution while preserving conditional guarantees. Empirically, BNF consistently improves conditional coverage robustness on nine datasets across a wide range of confidence levels.

Mediation analysis has traditionally focused on outcome-level summary contrasts, such as mean effects, which may obscure substantial distributional changes induced by complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms. We propose Distributional Causal Mediation Analysis (DCMA), a generative learning framework for identifying and estimating treatment effects on entire outcome distributions transmitted through multiple mediators. DCMA learns conditional generative models for the mediators and the outcome, recovering the relevant conditional distributions from observational data. Leveraging the identification formulas, it reconstructs interventional outcome distributions via Monte Carlo forward simulation by noise resampling, enabling the capture of both classical summary effects and rich distributional contrasts such as energy distance and the Wasserstein distance. Analytical error bounds are derived to decompose how estimation errors in the learned conditional models propagate to the reconstructed interventional outcome distributions. The empirical effectiveness of DCMA is demonstrated through numerical experiments and real-world data applications.

The field of machine learning is subject to an increasing interest in models that are not only accurate but also interpretable and robust, thus allowing their end users to understand and trust AI systems. This paper presents a novel method for learning a set of optimal quantile regression trees. The advantages of this method are that (1) it provides predictions about the complete conditional distribution of a target variable without prior assumptions on this distribution; (2) it provides predictions that are interpretable; (3) it learns a set of optimal quantile regression trees without compromising algorithmic efficiency compared to learning a single tree.

We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and show that it is fundamentally equivalent to a standard regression task. For classification settings, we further establish a connection between conditional risk calibration and individual/conditional probability calibration, and develop theoretical insights for the performance metric. This reveals that while conditional risk calibration is related to existing uncertainty quantification problems, it remains a distinct and standalone machine learning problem. Empirically, we validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical implications of conditional risk calibration in the learning to defer (L2D) framework. Our systematic experiments provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments, offering guidance for future research in uncertainty-aware decision-making.

Forecasting the life-cycle trajectory of a newly launched product is important for launch planning, resource allocation, and early risk assessment. This task is especially difficult in the pre-launch and early post-launch phases, when product-specific outcome history is limited or unavailable, creating a cold-start problem. In these phases, firms must make decisions before demand patterns become reliably observable, while early signals are often sparse, noisy, and unstable We propose the Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF), a conditional generative framework for forecasting new-product life-cycle trajectories under cold start. CDLF combines three sources of information: static descriptors, reference trajectories from similar products, and newly arriving observations when available. Here, static descriptors refer to structured pre-launch characteristics of the product, such as category, price tier, brand or organization identity, scale, and access conditions. This structure allows the model to condition forecasts on relevant product context and to update them adaptively over time without retraining, yielding flexible multi-modal predictive distributions under extreme data scarcity. The method satisfies consistency with a horizon-uniform distributional error bound for recursive generation. Across studies on Intel microprocessor stock keeping unit (SKU) life cycles and the platform-mediated adoption of open large language model repositories, CDLF delivers more accurate point forecasts and higher-quality probabilistic forecasts than classical diffusion models, Bayesian updating approaches, and other state-of-the-art machine-learning baselines.

We study the community detection problem in the non-uniform hypergraph stochastic block model (HSBM), where hyperedges of varying sizes coexist. This setting captures higher-order and multi-view interactions and raises a fundamental question: can multiple uniform hypergraph layers below the detection threshold be combined to enable weak recovery? We answer this question by establishing a Kesten--Stigum-type bound for weak recovery in a general class of non-uniform HSBMs with $r$ blocks, generated according to multiple symmetric probability tensors. In the case $r=2$, we show that weak recovery is possible whenever the sum of the signal-to-noise ratios across all uniform hypergraph layers exceeds one, thereby confirming the positive part of a conjecture in (Chodrow et al., 2023). Moreover, we provide a polynomial-time spectral algorithm that achieves this threshold via an optimally weighted non-backtracking operator. For the unweighted non-backtracking matrix, our spectral method attains a different algorithmic threshold, also conjectured in (Chodrow et al., 2023). Our approach develops a spectral theory for weighted non-backtracking operators on non-uniform hypergraphs, including a precise characterization of outlier eigenvalues and eigenvector overlaps. We introduce a novel Ihara--Bass formula tailored to weighted non-uniform hypergraphs, which yields an efficient low-dimensional representation and leads to a provable spectral reconstruction algorithm. Taken together, these results provide a principled and computationally efficient approach to clustering in non-uniform hypergraphs, and highlight the role of optimal weighting in aggregating heterogeneous higher-order interactions.