Conditional-Value-At-Risk

We formulate and analyze the linear exponential quadratic Gaussian (LEQG) covariance steering problem in continuous time over a given deadline (finite time horizon). The solution for this problem can be seen as a risk-sensitive Schr"{o}dinger bridge between Gaussian endpoints in the linear quadratic setting. Unlike the risk-neutral case, the LEQG covariance steering controller--still a linear state feedback--can no longer be written in closed form. We show that the optimal controller is parameterized by a symmetric matrix solving an algebraic equation that encodes the implicit dependence on the risk-sensitivity parameter. We explain how the structure of this optimal controller significantly generalizes the existing results for the risk-neutral case. Building on these results, for the matched noise and input channel case, we prove the existence-uniqueness of solution for the LEQG covariance steering problem in the neighborhood of the known risk-neutral optimal solution. We give an illustrative numerical example.

Hazardous robotic exploration requires robots to map spatial risks, such as unsafe terrain, radiation, fire, mines, or structural damage, while operating where collecting information can itself cause failure. A highly informative path may expose the robot to hazards, terminate execution, and prevent future observations. Hazardous exploration therefore requires deciding not only where uncertainty is largest, but when reducing it is worth the risk. This paper introduces a valuation-layer view of this problem. We keep the belief update, sensor model, physical risk model, and finite-horizon informative planner fixed, and change only the scalar objective used to rank feasible paths. Within this framework, we introduce a risk-augmented Behavioral Information objective based on Prelec probability weighting, yielding an interpretable family of conservative-to-aggressive information-risk valuations. Theoretically, we show that valuation parameters create switching boundaries between high-information/high-risk and lower-information/lower-risk paths, and induce a transformed Pareto-frontier structure over feasible exploration policies. Large-scale failure-truncated grid-world experiments show that valuation alone reshapes the information-risk frontier. Shannon information planning remains a strong raw-information baseline, while risk-aware objectives can reduce hazard exposure and robot losses by avoiding failures that truncate future sensing. Risk-augmented Behavioral valuation is Pareto-competitive with standard risk-aware baselines and provides interpretable conservative and intermediate regimes. These results support a framework in which robots reason not only about how much uncertainty an action reduces, but whether that reduction is worth the risk required to obtain it.

Recursive LLM agents can broaden their search by spawning specialists. Some branches later request tools that send data or deploy code. When should a branch receive authority to act? We distinguish sandbox spawning, in which external controls prevent the specified harm, from capability activation, in which a selected branch crosses an irreversible-action boundary. Progressive Risk Vesting (PRV) holds a trajectory-level risk budget in escrow and debits it as branches are activated. We prove an anytime harm bound for adaptively generated trees. Branch outcomes may be dependent, but each local certificate needs to remain valid conditional on the full pre-activation history, including the information used to select the request. When activation gates, branch charges, and compute constraints are held fixed, delayed vesting preserves every policy available under irrevocable spawn charging. Marginal risk estimates can still fail after branch selection. In a stylized branching model, trajectory harm changes as the authority reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_A$ crosses one. As local risk $p$ approaches zero, trajectory harm is proportional to $p$ below criticality, proportional to $\sqrt{p}$ at criticality, and retains a positive floor above it. A finite-type occupancy model yields risk and compute shadow prices. For nested fanout modes with decreasing marginal value per unit risk, these prices produce a threshold rule. Branching calculations and a split-sample experiment illustrate the results. These synthetic studies do not estimate safety in deployed agents. The analysis suggests a design rule: search broadly in the sandbox and grant recursive authority sparingly, with an explicit risk charge.

Fleets of LLM agents now externalize effects that cannot be fully undone: they move money, deploy code, delete data, and disclose information. Current controls check one effect at a time, so a fleet of individually authorized agents can overdraw its principal's risk under a shared trigger while every local gate stays correct. We propose the irreversibility budget, a cumulative account of residual value-at-risk that a trusted runtime maintains for each principal across agents, workflows, and tenants. Treating irreversibility as a first-class resource, the runtime charges each effect its residual loss below the agent and denies the marginal effect once the aggregate would overdraw the budget. Getting the price right is hard, because effects are heterogeneous, adversarially declared, and correlated. We perform a controlled study in which per-effect gates admit fleet-level overdraws of up to 48 times the tenant's risk limit while the budget holds every correctly charged run within that limit. Conservative, dependency-aware pricing remains the central open problem for a deployable design.

Expected-cost constraints can still permit rare, high-cost events. Monte Carlo conditional value at risk (CVaR) gradients can be noisy at high confidence, whereas critics that model an outcome distribution add complexity. We propose BCPPO (Bachelier-Inspired Constrained Proximal Policy Optimization), a proximal policy optimization (PPO) method. Separately initialized cost-prediction networks (critics), trained with random sample masks, produce disagreement that marks predictions sensitive to which state-action regions occur in the training data and to critic training. A Bachelier formula for the expected amount above a reference level converts this disagreement into a smooth policy-update penalty. Gradients from this penalty do not alter the critics, so temporal-difference (TD) critic learning is unchanged. A saturation-aware controller adjusts the mean-cost penalty and stops accumulated error from growing while that penalty is clipped. Deployment retains only the policy network. The disagreement penalty is neither a tail-event probability nor a guaranteed error bound, and it provides no safety guarantee. Across 175 runs with shared tasks, costs, budgets, training steps, and evaluation seeds, no comparator attains both higher mean return and lower mean CVaR than BCPPO in any task. On Push1, BCPPO has no lower return and no higher CVaR than every comparator, with at least one strict gain. These results support a practical balance among reward, caution around cost predictions that vary across trained critics, and policy-only deployment.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) safety systems combine character shaping (e.g., Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback [RLHF], Constitutional AI), which modifies behavioral distributions at training time, with rule enforcement (e.g., output filters, safety classifiers), which blocks harmful outputs at inference time, yet little formal analysis exists on how their optimal balance should change as deployment scales increase. We introduce a stylized comparative-statics model that parameterizes safety design as a resource allocation alpha in [0,1] between these two approaches, incorporating scale-dependent filter degradation, common-mode failures, and character fragility -- the risk that shaped behavior degrades or collapses under novel conditions. Under a multiplicative Pareto damage model, we derive closed-form expected harm and supplement it with tail-risk (CVaR) analysis via Monte Carlo simulation. Across three scenarios (optimistic, moderate, pessimistic), the optimal alpha* is interior or at the rules-only boundary and shifts weakly toward character shaping as deployment scale T grows, from negligible (Delta alpha* = +0.01) to pronounced (Delta alpha* = +0.21) depending on scenario. The dominant parameter is the baseline character fragility rate p^(0)_frag, which shifts alpha* by 0.50 across its range -- far exceeding the effect of tail severity, filter quality, or common-mode failure probability. CVaR and expected-harm optima converge at large T. These results suggest that safety architecture decisions depend less on deployment scale per se than on the reliability of character shaping under distributional shift.

We propose CVaR-penalized Generative Particle Algorithm (CVaR-GPA), a robust, tail-agnostic algorithm for fine-tuning generative models to learn heavy-tailed distributions and capture extreme events, requiring no prior knowledge or estimation of the target's tail characteristics. The method is the Wasserstein gradient flow of the Lipschitz-regularized Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence penalized by a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) discrepancy term: the Lipschitz-regularized KL divergence enables robust learning under minimal assumptions on the target distribution, while the CVaR penalty restores the velocity that otherwise vanishes prematurely in the under-sampled tails. The penalized flow admits a bounded but non-Lipschitz velocity field. This departs from the Lipschitz transport maps of standard generators, which preserve the tail behavior of a light-tailed source, and enables transport toward heavier-tailed targets. To define this flow on empirical measures, we derive the first-variation subgradients of CVaR from its Rockafellar-Uryasev representation, valid precisely where the classical density-based formula fails. The particle algorithm CVaR-GPA fine-tunes the output samples of any pre-trained model, without access to its architecture, and runs on an adaptive time horizon set by a kinetic-energy stopping criterion rather than a preset depth. On synthetic isotropic and anisotropic Student-$t$ target distributions, Neal's funnel distribution, and the real-world high-dimensional Fama-French 25 portfolio dataset, CVaR-GPA dramatically improves global and tail accuracy on heavy-tailed targets over the pre-trained baseline.

Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions. We propose VolRouter, a modular framework that formulates volatility control as state-conditioned routing over estimator-controller pairs. VolRouter first summarizes market conditions into a control-relevant state profile and then performs routing through three stages: state inference, switch review, and pair selection. The Router can be implemented using rule-based, learnable, or LLM-based decision modules, while portfolio actions remain generated by predefined control policies. We evaluate VolRouter across S&P 500, Multi-Asset, Bitcoin, and USDT volatility-control settings. VolRouter achieves the highest Sharpe ratio in three of four settings. On S&P 500, it improves Sharpe from 0.952 for RV + Naive Scaling to 1.222 while reducing maximum drawdown from 15.10% to 12.58% and daily CVaR from 1.76% to 1.32%. On Multi-Asset, it improves Sharpe from 1.498 to 1.540 and reduces CVaR from 1.56% to 1.18%. Bitcoin shows similar improvements in risk-adjusted performance, while USDT provides a boundary case where simpler state-aware selectors remain competitive. Ablation and sensitivity analyses show that the improvement comes from relative policy evaluation and selective persistent switching rather than simply expanding the policy library. These results suggest that volatility control can be viewed as a policy-selection problem when risk management requirements vary across market states.

We consider the optimization of the Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk, with applications including portfolio optimization in finance, and uncertainty quantification, classification, and regression in machine learning. Our contributions cover popular special cases of OCE, such as entropic risk, mean-variance risk, and smooth variants of Conditional Value-at-Risk. Our treatment sets out the conditions that facilitate the extension of OCE to unbounded r.v.s.. We provide a useful characterization of OCE that links OCE to utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR). Our characterization enables us to form an OCE estimator from the classic sample-average approximation (SAA) of UBSR. We derive mean-squared error (MSE) bounds for our proposed OCE estimator. For OCE optimization, we first derive an expression for the OCE gradient using the characterization linking OCE to UBSR. This expression serves as the basis for a gradient estimator for the OCE. We derive non-asymptotic bounds on the MSE for the proposed OCE gradient estimator. We incorporate the aforementioned gradient estimator into a stochastic gradient (SG) algorithm to optimize OCE and quantify its convergence rate using non-asymptotic bounds that we derive. Finally, we present three experiments that use our OCE optimization algorithm to solve portfolio optimization and uncertainty quantification problems.

Risk-aware Q-learning (RaQL) provides a model-free, two-timescale estimator for dynamic risk objectives, but its finite-budget behavior remains fragile: fixed inner-loop hyperparameters can produce unstable value estimates, persistent Bellman residuals, and inefficient sample reuse. This paper proposes an adaptive training controller for Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) RaQL and evaluates it on a daily Bitcoin trading task. The controller preserves the original CVaR estimator and Bellman fixed point; instead, it redesigns the training procedure through six coordinated mechanisms: per-cell inner-step sizing, outer-rate-matched decay synchronization, a short early correction for the VaR-like inner variable, a coverage-first-then-greedy sample allocation rule, progressive suffix aggregation of mature inner estimates, and data-driven calibration of key scales from online-observable quantities. Across 20 random seeds and 856,000 inner-transition samples, the controller reduces the mean empirical CVaR Bellman residual by approximately 85% relative to the fixed-parameter baseline (MeanBEQ: 1.2202 to 0.1854; MeanBEV: 1.1624 to 0.0535) and maintains stability across CVaR levels, discount factors, and training budgets. On the chronological out-of-sample test set, the learned policy attains a Sharpe ratio of 0.9281 with a maximum drawdown of 6.46% after transaction costs. Although buy-and-hold yields a higher cumulative return (35.43% vs. 23.61%), the adaptive policy achieves far lower volatility (9.57% vs. 47.93%), drawdown, and CVaR loss. These results demonstrate that adaptive finite-budget training design, applied solely to the training procedure without altering the risk objective, can materially improve the reliability and risk-adjusted performance of risk-aware Q-learning in financial applications.

We study finite-horizon MDP planning under \emph{root-based} (resolute) risk objectives that apply a rank-dependent functional to the distribution of total returns. Such objectives are non-linear in the return distribution and generally break Bellman optimality, so direct optimization by scenario-tree enumeration is intractable. We propose \textbf{ERQDP}, an enumeration-free and sampling-free method that solves a rank--quantile surrogate via exact DP (Dynamic Programming), evaluates candidate policies exactly by DP over return Probability Mass Functions (PMFs) on a discretized return grid (with an explicit rounding bound), and refines the surrogate in an anytime loop that reports an explicit upper--lower gap (certificate) for the target objective up to discretization budgets. Across tested benchmarks, ERQDP returns certified solutions or explicit residual gaps, enables fast risk-parameter sweeps with substantial runtime gains, and supports both risk-averse and risk-seeking behaviors.

We present a novel viewpoint for uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty measures are not primitives, in need of axioms and argumentation, but instead consequences, of higher-level modelling decisions. We show how epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty measures can be derived via decomposition of a subjective risk, based on a strictly proper loss. Reverse cross entropy provides a prominent example, where decomposition recovers the classic information-theoretic uncertainty terms. The same approach recovers numerous measures previously proposed across the UQ literature, providing them a common theoretical foundation. This suggests a new approach to UQ: given a modelling scenario and strictly proper loss, the corresponding epistemic and aleatoric terms are induced by the subjective-risk decomposition. We then extend our view to learning theory: we introduce and analyse subjective risk analogues of excess risk, approximation error and estimation error, and identify the connections to UQ. We consider this a first step towards a full learning-theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification.

Distributional reinforcement learning agents learn full return distributions that are increasingly read at face value: for interpretability, risk-sensitive control, and safety monitoring. We ask a question theory anticipates but that has not been measured directly: are the risk claims of a trained distributional agent true? Our audit combines a decision-relevant screening metric (the excess Wasserstein gap between the top two actions, which equals the mass by which first-order stochastic dominance is violated), ground truth from snapshot-restart Monte Carlo, and a statistical harness (permutation nulls, bootstrap refutation, FDR control) without which the audit itself manufactures false conclusions. Across QR-DQN, C51, and IQN on MinAtar (33 runs), 40-95% of the strongest claimed risk trade-offs are refuted at 95% confidence, the placement of the strongest claims is statistically indistinguishable from truth-blind, and essentially no claim is confirmable: for these agents, the learned "risk" reflects a training artifact rather than environment stochasticity. The artifact is structural (fully formed early in training, uncorrelated with final score, idiosyncratic to each seed) and appears unchanged at full-Atari scale, with every top Breakout claim of a pretrained near-state-of-the-art QR-DQN refuted. Positive controls of known magnitude confirm 96-100% of real claims (correlation 0.89-0.92): the reading measures the agents, not the audit. Acting on the heads' CVaR advice at their most-flagged states ranges from beneficial to significantly worse than chance. Neither training for risk nor ensembling removes the artifact, and recalibration passes the audit only by nullifying the claims: the head is uninformative, not merely miscalibrated. We release the toolkit and document two silent pitfalls that produced convincing but wrong audits of our own.

We study general-utility Markov decision processes (GUMDPs) with risk-aware objectives. In this framework, an agent aims to optimize a risk measure of the distribution of objective values, where the objective function depends on the frequency of visitation of states induced by the agent's policy. First, we motivate, propose, and formalize risk-aware GUMDPs, which enable agents and decision makers to trade off expected performance by risk aversion while benefiting from the rich set of objectives that can be cast under the framework of GUMDPs. We focus our attention on the entropic risk measure (ERM). Second, we show how we can solve risk-aware GUMDPs with ERM objectives by resorting to online planning techniques. In particular, we propose an approach based on Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to provably solve risk-aware GUMDPs up to any desired accuracy. Third, we provide a set of experimental results showcasing that our approach is successful when optimizing for a spectrum of risk-aware behaviors in the context of GUMDPs under diverse tasks (standard MDPs, maximum state entropy exploration, imitation learning, and multi-objective MDPs).

Portfolio optimization under uncertainty is inherently a multi-objective decision problem involving complex interactions among return, risk, market dynamics, and practical investment constraints. Existing reliability based portfolio optimization approaches primarily rely on static optimization frameworks and often fail to capture sequential decision making, tail risk, and market frictions such as transaction costs. To address these limitations, we propose a deep reinforcement learning framework for multi-objective reliability based portfolio optimization (MORP-DRL). The proposed framework jointly optimizes expected return and downside risk using three complementary risk measures: variance, Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), and Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR). To model uncertainty and heavy-tailed market behavior, asset returns are represented using GARCH(1,1), Extreme Value Theory, and a t-copula dependence structure, while realistic scenarios are generated through quasi-Monte Carlo simulation. A Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) based strategy is developed under practical constraints including transaction costs and portfolio bounds, and is benchmarked against NSGA-II. Experiments on ten global equity indices across pre-COVID, COVID, and post-COVID market regimes demonstrate that MORP-DRL achieves competitive risk-return performance, reduced downside risk during periods of market stress, and scalability to high-dimensional portfolio settings.

Monetary risk measures have gained popularity for expressing decision-makers' risk aversion. Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR), in particular, are used commonly for this purpose. This paper proposes new efficient algorithms to compute these risk measures for a discrete random variable in expected linear time with respect to the size of its domain. First, we propose a QuickVaR algorithm that computes the VaR of a discrete random variable. Then, we leverage QuickVaR to propose QuickDivergence, an algorithm for computing a class of $\varphi$-divergence risk measures, including the popular CVaR risk measure. The QuickVaR algorithm adapts the well-known Quickselect algorithm, while QuickDivergence builds on polymatroid optimization algorithms. Numerical results show that our new algorithms offer an order-of-magnitude speedup for large domains, and a library implementation of the algorithms is available at https://github.com/RiskAverseRL/RiskMeasures.jl.

Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is usually conducted under a single probability measure. However, in practice, the available evidence often pins the measure down only to a set. Consequently, under a set of probability measures, VOI requires different formulations. First, we explicate a rule-specific VOI that fixes a decision rule for acting under imprecision (such as Gamma-maximin) and measures what the information is worth to a decision maker who uses that rule. Second, we derive a fixed-measure envelope that evaluates the classical VOI functional over all admissible precise measures. We formalize this distinction and explicate its consequences for the expected perfect, partial, and sample information. The expected value of perfect information is concave over the credal set. Hence, when the set is generated by finitely many measures, its lower envelope endpoint is obtained exactly from the generators, while its upper endpoint may be interior and is computed by a finite linear program. The Gamma-maximin value, in contrast, can exceed the entire envelope, so a rule-specific value is not recovered from the envelope's endpoints. A continuity bound limits how much the VOI can change as the measure varies, and we identify when the partial- and sample-information endpoints can still be obtained from the generators. Because the single-measure VOI must itself be estimated, the procedure we give combines standard estimators for it with a search over the credal set. By using a worked decision problem, we show how the two quantities separate conclusions that hold across every admissible measure from conclusions that depend on one unidentified choice of measure.

Offline reinforcement learning enables policy learning from fixed datasets without additional environment interaction, making it appealing for safety-critical applications where online exploration is costly or unsafe. Diffusion-based decision-making methods have recently achieved strong performance in offline RL by modeling rich, multimodal trajectory distributions. However, existing diffusion planners are typically risk-neutral and therefore may overlook rare but catastrophic outcomes that are crucial in real-world deployment. In this work, we propose RS-Diffuser, a risk-sensitive offline diffusion planning framework that combines diffusion-based trajectory generation with distributional value critics. RS-Diffuser learns a diffusion planner over future state trajectories, a separate inverse dynamics model for action decoding, and a Monte Carlo distributional critic that estimates the full return distribution of candidate plans through quantile regression. At sampling time, we incorporate a risk-sensitive guidance signal into the denoising process, using gradients computed from tail-aware objectives such as Conditional Value at Risk to steer generation toward desired risk profiles. As a result, a single trained model can flexibly produce risk-averse, risk-neutral, or risk-seeking behaviors by changing only the inference-time risk parameter. Extensive experiments on risk-sensitive D4RL and risky robot navigation benchmarks demonstrate that RS-Diffuser achieves state-of-the-art performance, improving both overall return and worst-case robustness while reducing safety violations.

Constrained MDPs (CMDPs) are a widely adopted framework for incorporating safety into RL agents; however, the framework does not support risk-sensitive constraints. This can be problematic: For example, CMDPs allow for optimal solutions that, in order to satisfy the risk-neutral constraints, mix infrequent catastrophic behaviors and frequent, overly conservative ones. Moreover, prior empirical results suggest that enforcing stricter, risk-sensitive constraints can improve performance even under risk-neutral evaluation. The natural framework to incorporate risk-sensitive constraints is utility-constrained MDPs (UCMDPs), but no practical solutions for this problem existed. In this work, we introduce a simple yet powerful methodology for UCMDPs and constrained RL. Besides allowing for risk-sensitive constraints, our framework does not require us to fix constraint limits in advance of training the agent, provided that a sensible range is known. This increases policy flexibility and, in practice, allows for adjustments to these limits at no extra training cost. Besides benefiting from the generality of the framework, our agent shows strong performance in practice, consistently matching or outperforming existing baselines in several Safety Gymnasium benchmark tasks.

Quantum combinatorial optimization offers theoretical advantages for complex financial modeling, but physical implementation on Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices is severely constrained by hardware topology. This study presents a hardware benchmarking analysis between a Hardware Efficient Variational Quantum Neural Network (HE-VQNN) and the Warm Start Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (WS-QAOA) for a hybrid Mean Variance and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) portfolio objective. By implementing a novel classical quantum hybrid proxy matrix to bypass the CVaR auxiliary qubit bottleneck, we map up to 16 assets from the NIFTY 50 index onto an IBM heavy hex processor. We systematically quantify algorithmic resilience to the "SWAP tax" incurred during routing. Empirical results reveal a critical operational trade-off: WS-QAOA provides exact theoretical mapping but suffers catastrophic hardware decoherence due to exponential nonlocal gate overhead. Conversely, HE-VQNN preserves hardware coherence but lacks the mathematical expressibility to capture dense tail risk asset correlations. This study exposes the limitations of dense financial optimization on current architectures forces an nonviable choice between algorithmic inexpressibility and hardware decoherence. This is indicative of a deeper limitation as to what can and cannot be done with NISQ computers lacking in all-to-all connectivity.

Reliable decision making pipelines powered by machine learning models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that come with explicit safety guarantees. Conformal prediction provides such UQ by wrapping ML predictions into prediction sets, and recent work by Kiyani et al. (2025b) established that these sets can be translated into optimal risk-averse decision policies -- yet only inheriting marginal safety guarantees. We generalize and strengthen their results by (i) introducing action-conditional conformal prediction, which yields safety guarantees conditioned explicitly on each action taken by the decision maker, (ii) showing that action-conditional prediction sets serve as a proxy for the feasible decision space for risk-averse decision makers aiming to optimize action-conditional value-at-risk, and (iii) proposing a principled finite-sample algorithm based on pinball-loss minimization, connecting the framework of Gibbs et al. (2025) to action-conditional guarantees. Experiments on two real-world datasets confirm that our approach significantly improves action-conditional performance over conformal baselines.

Learning Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) is important for managing financial risks effectively. Existing approaches with limited parameters are vulnerable to model misspecification in the era of big data. To address this limitation, we propose a large tail risk model, the retrieval-enhanced self-grouping autoencoder (ReSGA), which is designed with millions of parameters to exploit the rich cross-sectional dependence and long-term temporal dynamics of assets using their characteristics. Applied to monthly US equity returns from 1926 to 2023 with 153 firm characteristics, ReSGA outperforms twelve econometric and machine learning competitors in terms of out-of-sample loss and statistical backtesting. In addition, its forecast advantages can translate into significant economic gains from long-short decile portfolios that are constructed by a new size-enhanced left-side momentum strategy. To clarify the role of complexity, we further conduct a systematic scaling analysis and demonstrate that improvements in joint VaR-ES forecasting are primarily driven by data complexity rather than model complexity. Finally, our analyses of group-importance and transfer-learning exhibit the interpretability and cross-market generalizability of ReSGA.

We present an online, distribution-free framework for controlling the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), extending conformal tail risk control to non-stationary and adversarial environments. Unlike classical risk control methods, which rely on stationarity or linearity of expectation, our approach provides provable safety guarantees for a nonlinear tail risk functional under arbitrary data-generating processes that may drift or shift strategically over time. By leveraging deep connections between conformal tail risk control, online learning, and the variational representation of CVaR introduced by Rockafellar and Uryasev, we develop a novel procedure for online CVaR control with adversarial regret guarantees. The proposed method operates without assumptions on the underlying data-generating process, making it broadly applicable in modern high-stakes deployment settings. We prove that the realized empirical CVaR is asymptotically controlled at the target level, and that the resulting control is asymptotically tight up to a finite-sample conservatism gap. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on portfolio risk management and toxicity mitigation for Large Language Models (LLMs), where rare but catastrophic failures dominate system risk.

Regulatory stress testing frameworks, including the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP), require robust Stressed Value-at-Risk (SVaR) estimation under forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios. Traditional parametric approaches often exhibit numerical instability under extreme shocks, reducing the reliability of capital projections. This paper extends the Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Historical Simulation (GPR-HS) framework of Vadrevu (2026) to forward-looking stress scenarios, demonstrating stability across three regimes: West Asia War, Climate Risk, and AI Bubble/Regulation. A key contribution is the Scenario-Averaged Covariance Stabilization (SACS) framework, which constructs stress covariance as a weighted aggregation of historical crisis regimes, providing stable and interpretable dependence structures. Stressed return paths are generated over a 252-day horizon using deterministic drift and stochastic residuals, while volatility is modeled via Gaussian Process Regression with Aggressive Noise Initialization (ANI). The framework exhibits consistent convergence across all assets and scenarios. SVaR ranges from -2.1020% to -2.2231%, with the coherence property |SES| > |SVaR| preserved. The results support GPR-HS with SACS as a stable and regulator-aligned approach for forward-looking SVaR and SES estimation in CCAR and ICAAP applications.

We propose a foundational runtime actuarial layer for autonomous AI agents in which every side-effect-bearing action carries a time-consistent, counterfactual risk toll computed against a contractually fixed safe default, inside an explicit underwriting boundary. The framework treats per-action insurance as the primary unit of analysis and replaces post-hoc annual liability cover with a pre-action transaction layer. The paper establishes four structural results: (i) a well-defined counterfactual toll under a chosen safe-default mapping and continuation policy, with explicit non-uniqueness; (ii) a no-splitting property within an underwriting boundary that telescopes path-decomposed actions into a boundary potential, with a corollary tying gaming-resistance to boundary design; (iii) an irreversible-authority premium, split into a strictly positive action-level component and an if-and-only-if characterisation of the set-level robust capital increase; and (iv) a conservative runtime gating theorem that translates high-probability toll envelopes into an executed-action budget guarantee. The result is the mathematical base layer for a broader program: an empirical companion instantiates the runtime through an Actuarial Action Interface and authority-frontier experiments; a mechanism-design companion studies strategic operator incentives and cross-boundary aggregation; and a dynamic-underwriting companion studies experience rating and audit-replay calibration. The present paper states the primitive contract, the toll identity, the within-boundary no-arbitrage result, and the budget guarantee on which those later layers depend.

Active perception in uncertain environments requires robots to navigate safely while acquiring informative observations to reduce map uncertainty. These objectives inherently conflict, as informative viewpoints often lie near uncertain regions with higher collision risk. To address this challenge, we develop a conflict-aware active perception and control framework for robotic systems operating in environments represented by 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS). Safety is enforced using a Control Barrier Function (CBF) derived from an Average Value-at-Risk AV@R collision-risk metric that accounts for geometric uncertainty and guarantees forward invariance of a safe set. To improve perception, we propose a risk-aware Expected Information Gain (EIG) formulation for selecting the next-best-view and introduce perception barrier functions that align the camera orientation with the local information-ascent direction. To obtain a tractable formulation for these conflicting safety and perception objectives, we propose a unified safety-critical, perception-aware quadratic program that enforces safety as a hard constraint while relaxing perception constraints through slack variables. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method improves both safety and information acquisition compared to existing 3DGS-based approaches.

Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). Traditional econometric models, including GARCH-family and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) approaches, suffer from parametric rigidity, distributional assumptions, and numerical instability under stress, leading to systematic underestimation of tail risk. This paper proposes and validates a novel Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression-Historical Simulation (GPR-HS) framework for estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across a diversified portfolio of seven major global equity indices. The framework decouples the VCV estimation problem: individual asset volatilities are modelled dynamically using Univariate GPR with a Matern 5/2 kernel, while inter-asset correlations are estimated via stable historical covariance. A key methodological contribution is the Aggressive Noise Initialization (ANI) strategy, which sets the initial White Noise kernel variance equal to the empirical variance of the training returns, ensuring Gram matrix positive-definiteness, regularization, and conservative, regulatory-compliant forecasts. Evaluated using an expanding window forward-chaining cross-validation scheme over June 2020 -June 2025, the GPR-HS framework achieves regulatory compliance in the majority of test splits; including a 100% ES pass rate at the portfolio level, while outperforming the static Historical VaR benchmark in 71.4% of univariate cases by Quadratic Loss and 100% of cases by violation count.

Efficient agentic systems should incur expensive frontier-model costs only on decisions where a cheaper local model is likely to fail. Existing LLM cascades usually route whole queries before execution, but task difficulty shifts mid-trajectory - after flaky tool calls, truncated observations, or compounding local errors - making pre-execution routing brittle. We introduce \textbf{R2V-Agent}, a risk-calibrated SLM-LLM routing framework for interactive agents. R2V combines four components: a distilled small language model (SLM) policy, a stronger teacher LLM, a lightweight process verifier that scores candidate actions at each step, and a calibrated step-level router. The router is our central contribution: after the SLM is trained, it estimates residual failure risk at each step and escalates only when teacher intervention is warranted. To make the routing problem well-defined, we first train a stable local SLM using a standard offline pipeline: behavioral cloning (BC) on teacher trajectories, followed by verifier-guided Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) with consistency regularization. The router is then trained on this fixed policy's residual failures using Brier-calibrated probability estimation and a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR)-constrained objective that penalizes worst-case failures across perturbation seeds. Across HumanEval+, TextWorld, and TerminalBench with four SLM backbones, R2V improves the reliability-cost frontier: it achieves $94.3\%$ HumanEval+ success with $0.60\%$ LLM escalation, recovers TextWorld from $64.6\%$ SLM-only success to $98.2\%$ at $41.7\%$ escalation, and reaches $93.3\%$ TerminalBench success at $33.9\%$ LLM calls, roughly half the heuristic-router cost.

Differential privacy changes the effective sample size governing CVaR learning. For tail mass $τ$, the privacy-relevant sample size is not $n$, but $nτ$; equivalently, the effective private tail sample size is $εnτ$. Private CVaR excess risk decomposes into ordinary tail-risk statistical error and a privacy price. This decomposition is complete for scalar estimation and finite classes: scalar estimation has rate $Θ(B \min\{1,(nτ)^{-1/2}+(εnτ)^{-1}\})$, and finite classes of size $M$ have rate $Θ(B \min\{1,\sqrt{\log(2M)/(nτ)}+\log(2M)/(εnτ)\})$. These complete rates hold under pure DP, and their lower bounds extend to approximate DP in the stated small-$δ$ regimes. For convex Lipschitz learning, modular upper and lower reductions show that the CVaR-specific privacy term necessarily scales as $1/(εnτ)$, with dimension dependence inherited from private stochastic convex optimization. Together, these results identify ordinary private learning on $Θ(nτ)$ informative tail records as the canonical hard subproblem inside private CVaR learning.

Uncertainty quantification is essential in safety-critical settings--from autonomous driving to aviation, finance, and health--where decisions must rely on conservative bounds rather than point estimates. Predictor-level intervals (e.g., from quantile regression, conformal prediction, variance networks, or Bayesian models) generally do not compose: adding two per-variable intervals need not yield a valid interval for their sum or preserve coverage. In aviation, Gaussian overbounding replaces complex error distributions with a conservative Gaussian whose tails dominate the truth, so conservatism propagates through linear operations. Yet classical overbounds are global, often overly conservative, and hard to adapt to feature-conditioned errors. We propose a unified learning framework that trains neural networks to produce context-aware Gaussian overbounds--mean and scale--with provable conservatism on a finite quantile grid and, under three explicit regularity assumptions, continuous-tail conservatism on a certified interval. Our overbounding loss enforces conservativeness at selected quantiles while penalizing distributional distance with a Wasserstein-style term. The learned bounds support conservative linear-combination and convolution analysis on the enforced grid, and on the certified interval when assumptions hold, while being less redundant than traditional methods. We provide a scoped analysis of discrete-to-continuous conservatism and compact-domain objective regularity, and validate on synthetic data and real-world datasets, including multipath, ionospheric, and tropospheric residual errors. Across these settings, the method yields tighter bounds while maintaining conservatism on the enforced grid and in experiments. The framework is modality-agnostic and applicable to learning systems that require conservative, feature-conditioned uncertainty estimates in dynamic environments.

Many safety-critical control problems are modeled as risk-sensitive partially observable Markov decision processes, where the controller must make decisions from incomplete observations while balancing task performance against safety risk. Although belief-space planning provides a principled solution, maintaining and planning over beliefs can be computationally costly and sensitive to model specification in practical domains. We propose a lightweight risk-gated reinforcement learning approximation for risk-sensitive control under partial observability. The method constructs a compact finite-history proxy state and learns an action-conditioned predictor of near-term safety violation. This predicted candidate-action risk is used in two complementary ways: as a risk penalty during value learning, and as a decision-time gate that interpolates between optimistic and conservative ensemble value estimates. As a result, low-risk actions are evaluated closer to reward-seeking estimates, while high-risk actions are evaluated more conservatively. We evaluate the approach in two safety-critical partially observable domains: automated glucose regulation and safety-constrained navigation. Across adult and adolescent glucose-control cohorts, the method improves overall glycemic tradeoffs and substantially reduces runtime relative to a belief-space planning baseline. On Safety-Gym navigation benchmarks, it achieves a more favorable reward-cost balance than unconstrained RL and several standard safe-RL baselines. These results suggest that action-conditioned near-term risk can provide an effective local signal for approximate risk-sensitive POMDP control when full belief-space planning is impractical.

Safe navigation for mobile robots demands policies that remain reliable under the high-consequence perception uncertainty of cluttered environments. Yet most existing safe reinforcement learning (RL) methods assess safety through average cumulative cost. Such metrics can mask dangerous tail-risk behaviors. To address this, we propose a framework that trains risk-sensitive policies through Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) constrained optimization on an off-policy TD3 backbone and evaluates their safety margins post-training through neural network reachability verification. During training, the policy is optimized under CVaR constraints on cumulative costs, promoting sensitivity to high-cost tail outcomes rather than average behavior alone. After training, we compute action reachable sets under bounded observation uncertainty using Taylor Model analysis, yielding a safety rate metric that quantifies the proportion of evaluated states at which the policy's reachable action set remains within prescribed safety margins. A key finding is that policies trained with CVaR constraints maintain larger safety margins from obstacles across evaluated states. This makes them significantly more amenable to formal reachability verification. Experiments across ten navigation scenarios and six baselines show that our method achieves a 98.3% success rate, the highest safety verification rate among all compared methods, while revealing that average cost rankings and reachability-based safety rankings can diverge. This indicates that reachability verification captures risks which are missed by empirical cost metrics alone. We further validate our approach on a physical Clearpath Jackal robot, demonstrating successful sim-to-real transfer.

In production Wide-Area Networks (WANs), correlated failures dominate availability losses, forcing operators to reserve large safety margins that leave substantial capacity underutilized. Achieving high utilization under strict availability targets therefore requires risk-aware Traffic Engineering (TE) over dozens to hundreds of probabilistic failure scenarios-yet solving this problem at operational timescales remains elusive. We demonstrate that existing risk-aware formulations can be unified under an embedded Sort-and-Select structure, exposing a fundamental trade-off between expressiveness and tractability: classical optimizers either restrict scenario selection for efficiency or incur prohibitive decomposition costs. While deep learning appears promising, prior Deep TE methods mainly target maximum link utilization and rely on scaling-based feasibility, which fundamentally breaks under explicit capacity constraints and scenario-dependent risk. We present NeuroRisk, a physics-informed deep unrolled optimizer that exploits the structure of Sort-and-Select. NeuroRisk enforces feasibility via gated edge-local reservations and represents scenario sets through permutation-invariant, gradient-aligned cues. Evaluations on production-style WANs show that NeuroRisk achieves small optimality gaps relative to the solver with orders of magnitude speedup $(10^2- 10^5 \times)$ on risk objectives, while outperforming neural baselines on nominal throughput.

Optimizing dynamic risk with stochastic policies is challenging in both policy updates and value learning. The former typically requires transition perturbation, while the latter may rely on model-based approaches. To address these challenges, we propose a surrogate policy gradient without transition perturbation under softmax policy parameterization. We further develop model-free value learning methods for dynamic expectile and conditional value-at-risk by leveraging elicitability. Finally, inspired by Expected SARSA and Expected Policy Gradient, a model-free off-policy actor-critic algorithm is constructed. Empirical results in domains with verifiable risk-averse behavior show that our algorithm can learn risk-averse policy and consistently outperforms other existing methods.

Risk-aware navigation should be selective: a policy should expose evasive degrees of freedom only when the local scene admits a lower-risk feasible maneuver, and suppress them when no safer alternative exists. We show that adding one context-energy term to a port-Hamiltonian navigation policy produces a learned force channel with exactly this falsifiable signature. When the local risk field contains a feasible lower-risk direction, the induced context force activates toward it; when the apparent escape is blocked or not yet available, a route-aware gate suppresses lateral force rather than hallucinating an unsafe maneuver. A CVaR tail-risk objective focuses gradient updates on rare but consequential risk transitions. We validate the selectivity signature across four settings. In the primary delayed-required-escape benchmark, route-aware CVaR reduces premature force activation from 0.950 to 0.180 versus DWA while raising success from 0.480 to 0.810 with zero replans. On real off-road terrain (RELLIS-3D), route-aware enrichment achieves correct activation rate 0.837 and false activation rate 0.114, compared to 0.378/0.752 for scalar risk gradients. On static semantic maps (DFC2018), enrichment reduces catastrophic failure from 0.60 to 0.10 and oscillation by 90.7% while preserving path efficiency. In highway traffic, collisions drop from 100% to 0% when a lane escape is feasible; when no escape exists, the policy suppresses the lateral maneuver. The selectivity property follows from the gradient structure of the context energy rather than from training-time tuning.

The Internet of Value (IoV) is a heterogeneous, partially-trusted network in which the dominant marginal risk is composite (route, sentiment, liquidity, and the policy a system is willing to commit to) rather than a property of any single chain. We argue that a risk primitive adequate for this regime is a composition of five engines: a prediction engine over price, liquidity, volatility, and route health; a Bittensor verification subnet that decentralises and economically scores prediction outputs; a sentiment-fusion engine over text, on-chain flow, and grey-literature feeds; an agentic engine under constitutional, role-bound action constraints; and an API-risk and scenario engine that converts forecasts into pre-committed action programs in the sense of Monte-Carlo scenario generation. We anchor the architecture in two empirical artefacts: a 27-hour policy-constrained liquidity stress-response experiment on Solana, and a 168-hour prediction-router calibration arc reported with explicit class-imbalance honesty. The case study supports deployability; the validator-loss decomposition is stated formally and is falsifiable.

We propose a distributionally robust approach to risk-sensitive estimation of an unknown signal x from an observed signal y. The observation and unknown signal are modeled as random vectors whose joint probability distribution is unknown, but assumed to belong to a given type-2 Wasserstein ball of distributions, termed the ambiguity set. The performance of an estimator is measured according to the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of the squared estimation error. Within this framework, we study the problem of computing affine estimators that minimize the worst-case CVaR over all distributions in the given ambiguity set. As our main result, we show that, when the nominal distribution at the center of the Wasserstein ball is finitely supported, such estimators can be exactly computed by solving a tractable semidefinite program. We evaluate the proposed estimators on a wholesale electricity price forecasting task using real market data and show that they deliver lower out-of-sample CVaR of squared error compared to existing methods.

Many safety-critical control systems operate under latent uncertainty that sensors cannot resolve at decision time. Such uncertainty, arising from unknown physical properties, disturbances, or unobserved geometry, affects dynamics, task feasibility, and safety margins. Standard methods optimize expected performance and offer limited protection against rare but severe outcomes, while robust formulations treat uncertainty conservatively without exploiting its probabilistic structure. We consider systems with measured state and an unknown, time-invariant parameter represented by a belief distribution. We propose a risk-sensitive belief-space Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) controller that plans under this belief, regularizes performance using Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), and imposes a CVaR constraint on a trajectory safety margin over the horizon. For the exact risk-constrained formulation underlying this controller, we establish three properties: (1) the CVaR constraint implies a probabilistic safety guarantee, (2) the controller recovers the risk-neutral optimum as the objective risk weight tends to zero, and (3) a union-bound argument extends the per-horizon guarantee to cumulative safety over repeated solves. In contact-rich MuJoCo simulations of vision-guided dexterous stowing, where a manipulator inserts a grasped object into an occupied slot with pose uncertainty exceeding prescribed lateral clearance requirements, our method achieves 82% success with zero contact violations at high risk aversion, compared with 55% and 50% for a risk-neutral configuration and a chance-constrained baseline, both of which incur nonzero exterior contact forces. Project page: https://clintonenwerem.com/belief-cvar-mppi/.

Tail-end risk measures such as static conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used in safety-critical applications to prevent rare, yet catastrophic events. Unlike risk-neutral objectives, the static CVaR of the return depends on entire trajectories without admitting a recursive Bellman decomposition in the underlying Markov decision process. A classical resolution relies on state augmentation with a continuous variable. However, unless restricted to a specialized class of admissible value functions, this formulation induces sparse rewards and degenerate fixed points. In this work, we propose a novel formulation of the static CVaR objective based on augmentation. Our alternative approach leads to a Bellman operator with: (1) dense per-step rewards; (2) contracting properties on the full space of bounded value functions. Building on this theoretical foundation, we develop risk-averse value iteration and model-free Q-learning algorithms that rely on discretized augmented states. We further provide convergence guarantees and approximation error bounds due to discretization. Empirical results demonstrate that our algorithms successfully learn CVaR-sensitive policies and achieve effective performance-safety trade-offs.

We introduce Canary, a risk-averse method designed to optimize Value-at-Risk (VaR) constrained reinforcement learning (RL) problems. We employ Cantelli's inequality to obtain a tractable, conservative and smooth bound on the VaR constraint based on the first two moments of the cost return. This yields a constraint estimator that remains stable with tight violation thresholds in dense cost regimes. Extending the trust-region framework of the Constrained Policy Optimization (CPO) method, we further provide worst-case bounds for both policy improvement and constraint violation during the training process. Empirically during training, Canary is the only method that reliably satisfies the VaR constraint in every environment tested.

This paper considers the estimation of quantiles via a smoothed version of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm. By smoothing the score function with a bandwidth tied to the learning rate, we obtain estimates that are monotone in the quantile level at every iteration, while retaining the memory and computational efficiency required for streaming data. We establish non-asymptotic tail probability bounds for the smoothed estimate with and without Polyak-Ruppert averaging, which are sub-exponential with a multi-regime structure. For the averaged estimate we further derive a Bahadur representation that is uniform in the quantile level and across coordinates, and a resulting Gaussian approximation by the maximum of Brownian bridges, with the dimension $p$ allowed to grow exponentially in the sample size. This yields simultaneous inference across coordinates and quantile levels. As an alternative that avoids estimating the sparsity function, we propose an online multiplier bootstrap that preserves monotonicity, runs in a single pass and is asymptotically valid. Extending the theory to a localized recursion, we obtain online nonparametric conditional quantile estimates with uniform bands over design points and quantile levels. Simulations confirm accurate finite-sample coverage, and we illustrate the method on conditional value-at-risk curves.