Counterfactuals

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Counterfactual Reasoning

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Counterfactual Explanation

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Counterfactual Learning

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Counterfactual Rollouts

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Chartographer: Counterfactual Chart Generation for Evaluating Vision-Language Models
May 26, 2026Yifan Jiang, Dae Yon Hwang, Jesse C. Cresswell +1Chart Visual Reasoning
Gumbel Machine: Counterfactual Student Writing Generation via Gumbel Noise Steering
May 26, 2026Hunter McNichols, Alexander Scarlatos, Mihai Dascalu +2Counterfactual Reasoning Random
On the Hidden Costs of Counterfactual Knowledge Training in LLM Unlearning
May 26, 2026Xiaotian Ye, Xiaohan Wang, Mengqi Zhang +1Large Language Model Unlearning Counterfactual Learning
Evaluating Interactive Reasoning in Large Language Models: A Hierarchical Benchmark with Executable Games
May 26, 2026Mingyuan Fan, Weiguang Han, Daixin Wang +3Multi-Turn Interactions Metacognition
SL-BiLEM: Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Modeling for Forecasting and Policy Evaluation
May 26, 2026Haochun Wang, Sendong Zhao, Jingbo Wang +3Epidemic Forecasting Agent-Based Model
Foundations of a Time-Consistent Counterfactual Actuarial Runtime for Autonomous AI Agents
May 26, 2026Hao-Hsuan ChenActuarial Reasoning Tasks Insurance
Clinically-Grounded Counterfactual Reasoning for Medical Video Diagnosis
May 26, 2026Jianzhe Gao, Churan Wang, Weiyi Zhang +5Counterfactual Learning Medical Visual Question Answering
TypedCSIP: Typed Counterfactual Pretraining for Chinese Legislative Conflict Classification
May 25, 2026Yao LiuConflict Counterfactual Learning
UWM-JEPA: Predictive World Models That Imagine in Belief Space
May 25, 2026Santosh Kumar Radha, Oktay GoktasLatent World Models Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures
Constraint-Anchored Attribution: Feasibility-Certified Counterfactuals and Bonferroni-PAC Sufficient Subsets for Neural CO Policies
May 24, 2026Sohaib LafifiCounterfactual Rollouts Visual Attribution
Counterfactually Safe Reinforcement Learning
May 24, 2026Jingyi Li, Peng Wu, Chengchun ShiCounterfactual Rollouts Counterfactual Reasoning
DTO: a Differentiable Training Objective for Effective Counterfactual Story Rewriting
May 24, 2026Amelia Girard, Massimo PiccardiRewrite Counterfactual Reasoning
When Mean CE Fails: Median CE Can Better Track Language Model Quality
May 23, 2026Hao Guo, Simon Dennis, Rivaan Patil +1Cross-Entropy Losses Retrieval Recall
State commitment learning: training language models to distinguish computation from memory
May 22, 2026Fei Ding, Yongkang Zhang, Runhao Liu +3Training Language Models Counterfactual Rollouts
MemAudit: Post-hoc Auditing of Poisoned Agent Memory via Causal Attribution and Structural Anomaly Detection
May 22, 2026Zhewen Tan, Yilun Yao, Huiyan Jin +9Language Model Evasion Attacks Algorithm Auditing
CRONOS: Benchmarking Counterfactual Physical Consistency in Video Models
May 22, 2026León Begiristain, Olaf Dünkel, Adam KortylewskiCounterfactual Reasoning Chronos
Steins;Gate Drive: Semantic Safety Arbitration over Structured Futures for Latency-Decoupled LLM Planning
May 21, 2026Anjie Qiu, Hans D. SchottenLarge Language Model Planning Classical Planning
Learning Spatiotemporal Sensitivity in Video LLMs via Counterfactual Reinforcement Learning
May 21, 2026Dazhao Du, Jian Liu, Jialong Qin +7Video-Language Models Counterfactual Rollouts
PREFINE: Preference-Based Implicit Reward and Cost Fine-Tuning for Safety Alignment
May 20, 2026Richa Verma, Bavish Kulur, Sanjay Chawla +1Safety Alignment Finetuning
Causal Unlearning in Collaborative Optimization: Exact and Approximate Influence Reversal under Adversarial Contributions
May 19, 2026Ali Mahdavi, Azadeh Zamanifar, Amirfarhad Farhadi +1Federated Learning Exact Unlearning
SafeAlign-VLA: A Negative-Enhanced Safe Alignment Framework for Risk-Aware Autonomous Driving
May 19, 2026Kefei Tian, Yuansheng Lian, Kai Yang +2Autonomous Driving Safety Alignment
DEFLECT: Temporal Counterfactual Preference Learning for Delay-Robust Asynchronous VLAs
May 19, 2026Yixiang Zhu, Yonghao Chen, Zijie Yang +2Asynchronous Execution Counterfactual Rollouts
Counterfactual Likelihood Tests for Indirect Influence in Private Reasoning Channels
May 18, 2026Alexander Boesgaard LorupCounterfactual Reasoning Inferring
A Large-Scale Study on the Accuracy vs Cost Trade-offs of Training and Evaluation Settings in Fine-Grained Image Recognition
May 18, 2026Edwin Arkel Rios, Augusto Christian Surya, Oswin Gosal +5Fine-Grained Perception Counterfactual Learning
CounterFlow: A Two-Phase Inference-Time Sampling for Counterfactual Video Foley Generation
May 18, 2026Gyubin Lee, Junwon Lee, Juhan NamJoint Audio-Video Generation Audio Latent
CounterCount: A Diagnostic Framework for Counting Bias in Vision Language Models
May 18, 2026Reem Alzahrani, Hassan Alshanqiti, Bushra Bin Hemid +3Counting Multimodal Reasoning
Counterfactual Explanations Under Concept Drift
May 17, 2026Marcin Kostrzewa, Jerzy Stefanowski, Maciej ZiębaCounterfactual Explanation Explainability
Form and Function: Machine Unlearning as a Problem of Misaligned States
May 17, 2026Kennon StewartMachine Unlearning Learning-Augmented Algorithms
UNR-Explainer: Counterfactual Explanations for Unsupervised Node Representation Learning Models
May 17, 2026Hyunju Kang, Geonhee Han, Hogun ParkCounterfactual Explanation Graph Representation Learning
When Bits Break Recourse: Counterfactual-Faithful Quantization
May 16, 2026Chaymae Yahyati, Ismail Lamaakal, Khalid El Makkaoui +1Quantization Distributional Fidelity
From Static Risk to Dynamic Trajectories: Toward World-Model-Inspired Clinical Prediction
May 16, 2026Pujun Feng, Xiaoyu Guo, Seyed Ehsan Saffari +10Clinical Prediction Clinical Decision Support
Deterministic Event-Graph Substrates as World Models for Counterfactual Reasoning
May 15, 2026Fabio RovaiCounterfactual Reasoning Rdf
COAL: Counterfactual and Observation-Enhanced Alignment Learning for Discriminative Referring Multi-Object Tracking
May 14, 2026Shukun Jia, Shiyu Hu, Yipei Wang +3Multi-Object Tracking Latent Representation Alignment
Do We Really Need External Tools to Mitigate Hallucinations? SIRA: Shared-Prefix Internal Reconstruction of Attribution
May 14, 2026Tian Qin, Junzhe Chen, Yuqing Shi +3Large Language Model Hallucination Contrastive Decoding
LEMON: Learning Executable Multi-Agent Orchestration via Counterfactual Reinforcement Learning
May 14, 2026Xudong Chen, Yixin Liu, Hua Wei +1Counterfactual Rollouts Role
Parallelizing Counterfactual Regret Minimization
May 14, 2026Juho Kim, Tuomas SandholmImperfect-Information Games Parallel
Heuristic Pathologies and Further Variance Reduction via Uncertainty Propagation in the AIVAT Family of Techniques
May 14, 2026Juho Kim, Tuomas SandholmVariance Reduction Value Functions
Causal Learning with the Invariance Principle
May 13, 2026Francesco Montagna, Francesco LocatelloStructural Causal Model Causal Graph
KamonBench: A Grammar-Based Dataset for Evaluating Compositional Factor Recovery in Vision-Language Models
May 13, 2026Richard Sproat, Stefano PeluchettiMultimodal Benchmarks Textual Dataset
Counterfactual Reasoning for Causal Responsibility Attribution in Probabilistic Multi-Agent Systems
May 13, 2026Chunyan Mu, Muhammad NajibMulti-Agent Systems Zero--Sum Differential Game
A General Bézier Tree Encoding Counterfactual Framework for Retinal-Vessel-Mediated Disease Analysis
May 13, 2026Tan Su, Ethan Elio Meidinger, Lin Gu +1Retinal Vessel Segmentation Medical Image Generation
Do Fair Models Reason Fairly? Counterfactual Explanation Consistency for Procedural Fairness in Credit Decisions
May 12, 2026Gideon Popoola, John SheppardCounterfactual Explanation
Macro: Enhancing Multilingual Counterfactual Explanations through Alignment-as-Preference Optimization
May 12, 2026Yilong Wang, Qianli Wang, Bohao Chu +3Counterfactual Explanation Counterfactual Reasoning
Controllable User Simulation
May 12, 2026Guy Tennenholtz, Ofer Meshi, Amir Globerson +3User Simulation Simulation-Based Reinforcement Learning
LatentRouter: Can We Choose the Right Multimodal Model Before Seeing Its Answer?
May 11, 2026Xueqi Cheng, Yushun DongLarge Language Model Routing Multi-Modal Large Language Models
A Proof-of-Concept Simulation-Driven Digital Twin Framework for Decision-Aware Diabetes Modeling
May 11, 2026Zarrin MonirzadehCognitive Digital Twins Digital Twin Framework
Counterfactual Stress Testing for Image Classification Models
May 11, 2026Moritz Stammel, Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro, Raghav Mehta +2Medical Image Classification Stress Testing
Learning More from Less: Exploiting Counterfactuals for Data-Efficient Chart Understanding
May 11, 2026Jianzhu Bao, Haozhen Zhang, Kuicai Dong +5Counterfactual Learning Chart
C-CoT: Counterfactual Chain-of-Thought with Vision-Language Models for Safe Autonomous Driving
May 11, 2026Kefei Tian, Yuansheng Lian, Kai Yang +2Autonomous Driving Efficient Vision-Language-Action Models
Real vs. Semi-Simulated: Rethinking Evaluation for Treatment Effect Estimation
May 11, 2026George PanagopoulosHeterogeneous Treatment Effects Semiparametric Framework
Extended Wasserstein-GAN Approach to Causal Distribution Learning: Density-Free Estimation and Minimax Optimality
May 11, 2026Shu Tamano, Masaaki ImaizumiCausal Inferences Conditional Distribution
Overcoming Catastrophic Forgetting in Visual Continual Learning with Reinforcement Fine-Tuning
May 10, 2026Meng Lou, Hanzhong Guo, Linwei Chen +1Catastrophic Forgetting Reinforcement Fine-Tuning
Investigating Anisotropy in Visual Grounding under Controlled Counterfactual Perturbations
May 9, 2026Gabriele Lombardo, Luigi Maiorana, Liliana Lo Presti +1Visual Grounding Counterfactual Reasoning
Self-ReSET: Learning to Self-Recover from Unsafe Reasoning Trajectories
May 9, 2026Dongcheng Zhang, Yi Zhang, Yuxin Chen +3Reasoning Trajectory Counterfactual Learning
Seeing the Needle in the Haystack: Towards Weakly-Supervised Log Instance Anomaly Localization via Counterfactual Perturbation
May 9, 2026Yutszyuk Wong, Wentai Wu, Yuen-Ying Yeung +1Reconstruction-Based Anomaly Detection Anomaly Detection
The Proxy Presumption: From Semantic Embeddings to Valid Social Measures
May 8, 2026Baishi Li, Ta Yu, Kelvin J. L. Koa +1Computational Social Science Social Norms
Three-in-One World Model: Energy-Based Consistency, Prediction, and Counterfactual Inference for Marketing Intervention
May 8, 2026Junichiro NiimiWorld Models Counterfactual Reasoning
Same Signal, Opposite Meaning: Direction-Informed Adaptive Learning for LLM Agents
May 7, 2026Ziming Li, Jiatan Huang, Xiaoguang Guo +2Counterfactual Rollouts Large Language Model Agents
Optimal Counterfactual Search in Tree Ensembles: A Study Across Modeling and Solution Paradigms
May 7, 2026Awa Khouna, Youssouf Emine, Julien Ferry +1Decision Trees Counterfactual Explanation
Creative Robot Tool Use by Counterfactual Reasoning
May 6, 2026M. Tuluhan Akbulut, Varun Satheesh, Ahmed Jaafar +5Robot Systems Tool

May 26, 2026 · cs.CLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Chartographer: Counterfactual Chart Generation for Evaluating Vision-Language Models

Yifan Jiang, Dae Yon Hwang, Jesse C. Cresswell, Freda Shi

University of Waterloo · Vector Institute · Layer 6 AI

Chart question-answering (QA) benchmarks aim to pose questions that require visual reasoning to correctly answer, but models can often reach solutions through shortcuts or prior familiarity with a chart based on their own background knowledge. To strictly evaluate visual reasoning, we propose counterfactual charts where the chart-question task remains fixed, but underlying chart and the corresponding answer are varied. We introduce Chartographer, a framework to reverse engineer charts into executable code, validate reconstruction fidelity, generate seed-controlled counterfactual variants, and derive new answers from executable QA logic. We apply this framework to existing chart QA datasets and evaluate proprietary and open-source vision-language models (VLMs), measuring variation sensitivity and generalizability. Counterfactual charts reveal failures hidden by single-chart performance: VLMs often fail to generalize after answering the original chart correctly. We find failures are most prevalent when updated charts require novel visual reasoning pathways.

Chart Visual Reasoning Reasoning Graphs Large Vision Language Models Counterfactual Reasoning Closed-Book Question Answering

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