Decision Trees

We introduce Varifold Moments Invariants (VMI) as a unifying framework for many previously introduced Moment Invariants. These invariants are deeply related to other contour features that are invariant under translations and rotations, like Extended Gaussian Image, Elliptic Fourier Descriptors or Shape Distributions. The advantage of the varifold approach to moments consists in being able to combine the geometry of the region, its boundary, and the family of lines tangent to it, in order to create a substantial number of invariant features with high discriminating power and clear geometric meaning. By coupling our VMI feature extraction with the light feature classifiers Random Forest or Multi-Layer-Perceptron, we outperform state-of-the-art approaches based on contours, while decreasing drastically the computational cost to the point of allowing our algorithm to run on light devices. We tested our approach on classification tasks on a large number of widely-used datasets of various types (leaves, objects, cells) and achieved high accuracy with a low number of geometrically interpretable features.

Raw numerical datasets remain less systematically examined in integrity screening than images, plagiarism, or summary-statistic inconsistencies. We developed the Fabrication-risk Digit Randomness Screening model (FDRS), a statistical and machine-learning framework for detecting non-random digit-pattern irregularities in numerical research data. FDRS integrates single- and joint-decimal-digit tests, Cramer's V, entropy metrics, Kullback-Leibler divergence, digit-preference indices, progressive subsampling, and semi-supervised risk scoring. It was evaluated using an instrument-derived enzymatic absorbance dataset (RawData, n=253) and a blinded manually simulated irregular dataset (ErrData, n=255). RawData showed no significant deviation in single third-decimal-digit analysis, whereas ErrData showed a significant deviation. In joint third-fourth decimal digit analysis, ErrData showed higher Cramer's V, lower normalized entropy, higher KL divergence, and a more persistent progressive-subsampling deviation signal. In internal validation, Elastic-net Logistic Regression achieved the highest AUC (0.98395) and lowest Brier score (0.048439), while Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (0.926667) and balanced accuracy (0.935). RawData received a low ensemble risk score of 0.124627 and was classified as Grade 0; ErrData received a score of 0.740760 and was classified as Grade 3. External real-world benchmarks supported graded risk stratification: three datasets without identified public post-publication concerns were classified as Grade 0 or 1, whereas two datasets from publicly questioned or institutionally handled articles were classified as Grade 2 or 3. FDRS can prioritize raw numerical datasets for further review by integrating interpretable statistical and machine-learning features. It is an auxiliary digit-structure screening tool, not standalone evidence of fabrication or misconduct.

We investigate how to make small tabular foundation models effective for High-Dimensional, Low-Sample Size (HDLSS) tabular prediction without retraining large backbones. We introduce Graph-guided Ordering with Local Refinement (GO-LR), show its equivalence to weighted Minimum Linear Arrangement, and interpret the practical solver as a TSP-path-style surrogate. We propose GOTabPFN,which builds on GO-LR, and a Neuro-Inspired Subunit Compression (NSC) unit to pool locally adjacent ordered features into meta-features, yielding a compact representation that makes TabPFN-style prediction practical in HDLSS regimes. Across tabular benchmarks, GOTabPFN improves stability and accuracy under tight token budgets.

Accurate, spatially explicit characterization of tropical forest structure is essential for carbon accounting and ecosystem monitoring, yet most ML pipelines predict canopy-top height proxies (e.g., RH95/RH98) or AGBD as separate scalar targets, rather than learning the forest vertical structure as an ordered profile. The community lacks a ML-ready multimodal benchmark for predicting the entire GEDI RH profile jointly with AGBD, or for evaluating methods that enforce physically consistent ordering across RH percentiles. We address this with Biomazon, a 20 m multimodal benchmark dataset over the Amazon Basin that pairs GEDI RH and AGBD targets with multi-sensor predictors (Sentinel-1/2, ALOS-2 PALSAR-2, Copernicus DEM, Dynamic World LULC, and AlphaEarth embeddings) under standardized spatial splits and evaluation protocols. Using a shared encoder-decoder with task-specific heads as a baseline framework, we conduct a comprehensive ablation study of (i) backbone/model scale, (ii) modality contributions, and (iii) the use of auxiliary embeddings under standalone and fusion settings, and we report both single-target and joint-target results to quantify tradeoffs under a unified training protocol. Finally, we contextualize baseline performance through regionally aligned comparisons against existing gridded products, including GEDI L4D RH10-RH98 and AGBD, at matching temporal scale. Biomazon, together with the accompanying protocols and baseline results, establishes a reference benchmark for future work on structurally consistent RH-profile prediction and structure-biomass modeling in tropical forests.

Trust in a decision-making system requires both safety guarantees and the ability to interpret and understand its behavior. This is particularly important for learned systems, whose decision-making processes are often highly opaque. Shielding is a prominent model-based technique for enforcing safety in reinforcement learning. However, because shields are automatically synthesized using rigorous formal methods, their decisions are often similarly difficult for humans to interpret. Recently, decision trees became customary to represent controllers and policies. However, since shields are inherently non-deterministic, their decision tree representations become too large to be explainable in practice. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach for explainable safe RL that enhances trust by providing human-interpretable explanations of the shield's decisions. Our method represents the shielding policy as a hierarchy of decision trees, offering top-down, case-based explanations. At design time, we use a world model to analyze the safety risks of executing actions in given states. Based on this analysis, we construct both the shield and a high-level decision tree that classifies states into risk categories (safe, critical, dangerous, unsafe), explaining why a situation may be safety-critical. At runtime, we generate localized decision trees that explain which actions are allowed and why others are deemed unsafe. Our method facilitates explainability of the safety aspect in safe-by-shielding reinforcement learning, requires no additional information beyond what is already used for shielding, incurs minimal overhead, and integrates readily into existing shielded RL pipelines. In our experiments, we compute explanations using decision trees that are several orders of magnitude smaller than the original shield.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) for Random Forest faces a specific difficulty in tuning the number of trees: the predictive score typically improves monotonically with ensemble size, so standard methods such as Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and Hyperband require a predefined search range and often drive the estimate toward its right boundary. Early-stopping strategies avoid fixing such a range, but can be sensitive to score noise and prone to premature stopping. To address this, we propose an integrated triplet-based plateau-search algorithm that removes the number of trees from the direct TPE search space and still exploits information accumulated across HPO trials. The method adaptively tracks a near-minimal sufficient ensemble size by monitoring relative changes in the out-of-bag (OOB) score across a triplet of forest sizes and shifting this triplet accordingly. This yields an automated and user-interpretable procedure based on a tolerance parameter. We also provide a theoretical analysis: we relate the proposed relative OOB-score criterion to the gap between the current and limiting scores, and derive an asymptotic variance estimate for the corresponding OOB-based absolute relative difference. Experiments show that the selected number of trees can differ substantially from the common heuristic: for most classical benchmark datasets it is smaller, whereas for some high-dimensional bioinformatics datasets, such as Arcene and Dorothea, it is larger. The source code and reproducible experiments are available at https://github.com/lange-am/rf_plateau_hpo.

Randomized smoothing (RS) uses a smoothed classifier to provide architecture-agnostic certificates of $\ell_2$ classification robustness, but its dependence on per-input Monte Carlo (MC) sampling undermines its use in real-time systems. We argue that this cost is structural rather than fundamental, such that it can be significantly reduced by sharing information across the deployment stream. We introduce RRISE, an RS framework that compresses certification into a single forward pass through a learned surrogate. RRISE trains the surrogate against precomputed MC class-count targets via a soft-label cross-entropy loss and converts surrogate predictions into provably conservative certified radii through a one-time conformal calibration step. The resulting certificate is deployment-verifiable: whenever the calibrated radius is positive, the surrogate's prediction provably matches the smoothed classifier's and the smoothed classifier is constant on a ball of that radius around the input. Across image classification benchmarks, RRISE matches fixed-budget MC certified accuracy within $0.84$ percentage points while replacing up to $10^4$ noisy base-model evaluations per query with a single surrogate forward pass, recouping MC training cost after $\approx 10^5$ deployment queries. On CIFAR-100 and Tiny ImageNet, where the only prior offline-surrogate method collapses, RRISE achieves $1.23$ to $1.91\times$ higher certified accuracy, establishing efficient randomized smoothing as a practical path to certified robustness in repeated-deployment settings.

Gradient boosted decision trees require a stopping rule to avoid overfitting. The standard rule monitors a validation loss and stops if the loss fails to improve for a fixed patience period. However, the patience parameter has no interpretable scale and validation losses can be noisy or implicitly defined by a user-specified gradient. We propose ScoreStop, a gradient-based early-stopping rule that casts the stopping decision at each iteration as a test of the null hypothesis that the current predictor is the population risk minimizer. We use a functional score test, computed on validation data, with a statistic that is scale-invariant in the update direction, with a known asymptotic distribution under the null. Because our test uses gradients rather than loss values, the same construction applies to implicit losses such as LambdaRank, and data-dependent losses such as Cox regression via influence functions. In synthetic experiments and real-data benchmarks, we show that ScoreStop is competitive with loss-based methods.

We study fixed-confidence best-action identification (BAI) in stochastic minimax trees. This problem is increasingly relevant in modern AI planning, where deep minimax search and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with language model long rollouts face a fundamental tradeoff: heuristic evaluations are cheap but biased, while accurate rollouts are reliable but prohibitively expensive. We propose 2FFS, a two-fidelity tree-search algorithm that brings multi-fidelity flat bandit ideas into trees. The algorithm combines minimax-style fast expansion with MCTS-style stochastic sampling, adaptively deciding when to exploit cheap biased evaluations and when to invoke expensive accurate evaluations for local certification. We prove fixed-confidence correctness, establish finite stopping for exact identification, and give a polynomial-depth cost upper bound for general-depth trees. Across numerical stochastic-tree experiments, 2FFS uses substantially fewer samples and computational operations comparing to existing BAI-MCTS baseline.

We ask: when do Bayesian model averaging (BMA) weights over decision trees carry sufficient epistemic information to justify committed exploitation of the averaging distribution? We answer this question in closed form for Bayesian decision trees (BDTs) with Dirichlet-Multinomial leaf models and a Catalan-exponential tree-size prior (Schetinin&Jakaite, 2025), establishing a complete non-asymptotic theory of rational commitment thresholds.

The GDP of a country is modelled as the relative interaction between two agents - working hours, reflecting the social choice of a population, and Total Factor Productivity, reflecting the collective investment in productivity enhancers. It is shown that a Random Forest model can accu- rately predict the GDP from these two factors. The differences in the choices made by Germany and USA are analysed though Gini importance, SHAP plots and partial dependency. It is shown that the differences in the social structure of the countries are reflected in the relative contribution of working hours and productivity to the GDP.

Standard machine learning pipelines often admit many near-optimal models. These "Rashomon sets" pose a range of challenges and opportunities for uncertainty-aware, robust decision making. They allow users to incorporate domain knowledge and preferences that would otherwise be difficult to specify directly in an objective, and they quantify diversity among valid models for a given training dataset and objective function. However, computation of Rashomon sets, even for simple, interpretable model classes such as sparse decision trees, continues to require immense memory and runtime resources. We present PRAXIS, an algorithm to approximate this Rashomon set with orders of magnitude improvement in runtime and memory usage. We validate that PRAXIS regularly recovers almost all of the full Rashomon set. PRAXIS allows researchers and practitioners to scalably model the Rashomon set for real-world datasets. Code for PRAXIS is available at https://github.com/zakk-h/PRAXIS

Bagging-based ensembles, most notably Adaptive Random Forests, are among the strongest performers for learning from data streams. A common denominator across these methods is their reliance on Hoeffding Trees as base learners, which grow decision trees incrementally by testing whether a candidate split is significantly better than its alternatives using concentration inequalities. Despite their empirical success, existing variants lack valid statistical guarantees. Current analyses rely on fixed-sample concentration bounds, while split decisions are made using data-dependent stopping rules, which invalidates their guarantees and can drive the probabilty of incorrect splits to one. We introduce a principled alternative based on anytime-valid inference. Our method provides: (i) anytime-valid control of false splits under arbitrary data streams, including non-stationary settings; (ii) finite commitment time under a predictive advantage; and (iii) under stationary i.i.d. data, risk is monotone decreasing and strictly improves at every split. Empirically, we evaluate both standalone trees and their use within Adaptive Random Forests on non-stationary streams. Our method improves performance while producing substantially smaller trees.

The detection of intrusions in IoT-based networks poses challenges that cannot be overcome using traditional machine learning methods. Perhaps the biggest of them is related to the presence of a class imbalance in the side-channel dataset, where the number of samples in the normal class compared to the attacks can reach a ratio of 75,964 to 1. Such an aspect is addressed by Dominguez et al. through the proof of concept of power-based intrusion detection. Unfortunately, neither the authors attempt to cope with the problem of imbalance nor do they assess the classifier performance using a balanced training set. In the current paper, both aspects will be handled at once. First, a Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was performed on all nine possible datasets extracted from the initial one, providing an exact imbalance ratio of 1.1 for each. Then, eight algorithms i.e. Random Forest, HistGradientBoosting, LightGBM, Extra Trees, XGBoost, k-Nearest Neighbors, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Decision Tree were trained under identical conditions for the SMOTE balanced 6-hour dataset. Random Forest reached a micro-averaged F1 score of 0.9989 and macro F1 of 0.9794, thus outperforming the previously best micro-F1 result obtained by Time Series Forest algorithm from the base paper of 0.9983. Extra Trees provided the same performance as well, but at 10 times faster. The introduction of a macro-F1 metric explicitly in contrast to the base paper assessment reveals important class-level information missed with aggregate performance metrics. Recall rates per-class calculated with confusion matrices, F1 heatmaps, and ROC curves show that minority attack classes, especially those with combined M+L infections, are detected reliably only when using SMOTE balance. Feature importance analysis indicates the latest time steps as the most important predictor signals out of 60 steps in a power window.

Survival analysis concerns the task of predicting the time until an event occurs. Often used in the medical field, survival analysis deals with incomplete (i.e., censored) data, for instance, from patients who did not experience the event during the duration of the study. For practical use, both accuracy and interpretability are important. Survival trees are easy-to-follow survival models that split the patient cohort recursively into discrete patient groups. Whilst survival trees can capture complex relationships, they typically need to grow large, threatening interpretability. Moreover, survival trees are often built using greedy approaches that may overlook globally optimal split combinations, limiting predictive performance. Shallow survival trees require expressive, higher-order feature combinations to achieve competitive accuracy. We therefore use genetic programming to multi-objectively evolve inherently inspectable feature sets and study how they interact with different tree induction strategies. We further introduce an evolutionary approach that jointly optimises the survival tree structure and the non-linear split logic. Our findings demonstrate that evolutionary feature construction improves predictive performance across different tree induction strategies on two real-world datasets and two different survival tree depths. Given its speed and flexible presentation, the multi-objective evolution of entire trees likely holds the most future promise.

The amount of fat on the surroundings of the heart is correlated to several health risk factors such as carotid stiffness, coronary artery calcification, atrial fibrillation, atherosclerosis, cancer incidence and others. Furthermore, the cardiac fat varies unrelated to the overall fat of the subject, and, therefore, it reinforces the quantitative analysis of these adipose tissues as being essential. Clinical decision support systems are computer programs capable of evaluating information and providing a corresponding diagnosis or data to complement the physicists' analyses. The aim of this work is to propose a method capable of fully automatically segmenting two types of cardiac adipose tissues that stand apart from each other by the pericardium on CT images obtained by the standard acquisition protocol used for coronary calcium scoring. Much effort was devoted to promote minimal user intervention and ease of reproducibility. The methodology proposed in this work consists of a registration, which will roughly adjust input images to a standard, an extraction of features related to pixels and their surrounding area and a segmentation step based on data mining classification algorithms that define if an incoming pixel is of a certain type. Experimentations showed that the achieved mean accuracy for the epicardial and mediastinal fats was 98.4% with a mean true positive rate of 96.2%. In average, the Dice similarity index was equal to 96.8%.

Tree ensembles are machine learning models with strong predictive performance and interpretability, and remain widely used for tabular data. Standard pruning methods for tree ensembles typically optimize an accuracy-compression trade-off and may change a subset of predictions, potentially compromising decision consistency. Faithful pruning methods address this issue by preserving prediction equivalence over the entire input space, but this requirement leads to lower compression ratios. We propose PINE, a pruning method that provides strong guarantees within an in-distribution region. PINE preserves prediction equivalence within this region and controls the region size using a single parameter $α$ via conformal calibration. Experiments on 12 public tabular datasets show that PINE improves the compression ratio by up to 30% while preserving predictions at a comparable level to existing faithful pruning methods.

Customer churn prediction is essential across data-driven industries such as insurance, digital banking, eCommerce, and subscription platforms, where retaining existing customers is typically more cost-effective than acquiring new ones. Predicting churn on structured datasets remains challenging due to class imbalance, nonlinear feature interactions, and heterogeneous feature types. Tree-based ensemble methods consistently demonstrate strong performance in these contexts, often outperforming conventional neural networks. This study introduces a validated hybrid architecture that integrates feature-tokenized transformers (FT-Transformer) with gradient-boosted trees through calibration-aware stacking. The proposed framework addresses persistent gaps in statistical validation, probability calibration, and reproducibility found in prior research. The FT-Transformer captures higher-order feature interactions using self-attention, while XGBoost captures gradient-boosted decision boundaries with complementary inductive biases. Class imbalance is handled using class-weighted loss functions, thereby avoiding synthetic oversampling and preserving minority-class distributions. The models are ensembled using out-of-fold (OOF) stacking with a logistic regression meta-learner, which recalibrates overconfident base model outputs and learns optimal combination weights. On a public bank churn dataset, the hybrid model achieves 62.10% F1, 0.861 AUC-ROC, and 0.647 PR-AUC, outperforming the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) baseline by 3.37 F1 points and 0.027 AUC under 5x5 cross-validation with 95% confidence intervals reported. Ablation studies demonstrate that both the transformer component and stacking strategy contribute materially to performance. The proposed methodology offers a reproducible and extensible reference architecture for contemporary churn prediction on structured tabular data.

Structured data is well handled by gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDT), which are usually trained on vertically partitioned features across mutually distrustful parties. High speed and interpretability make GBDTs popular in finance and healthcare, where neural networks may fall short. Enabling secure computation for GBDTs poses unique challenges, requiring secure record alignment for comparison. Relying on private set intersection (PSI) is a de facto approach. Mistaking PSI for a safety measure actually exposes which record identifiers (IDs) are shared between the datasets. Although circuit-PSI could help, it is costly for generic uses. New ideas are needed to efficiently train in a "dark forest". Aiming to hide the IDs, we initiate the study of anonymous GBDT training on split data held by two parties. Dual circuit-PSI in our design lets the parties alternate as receiver to run pick-then-sum over local features. Via oblivious programmable pseudorandom functions, we propagate circuit-PSI outputs as shared state across runs. Avoiding universal alignment, we resolve the neglected dilemma that ID hiding incurs a cost that scales with domain size. Next, we halve the cost of ciphertext packing used to convert single-instruction multiple-data homomorphic encryption from (ring) learning with errors in prior secure GBDT (Usenix Security' 23) and related secure machine-learning computations. Comparative experiments show our protocol remains competitive with leaky approaches in efficiency. Enabling ID-hiding aggregation, our techniques can extend to other vertically partitioned analytics.

CART random forests are among the most widely used modern predictive methods, with well-documented empirical success. Yet, at the mechanistic level, the algorithm is often treated as a black box because of its complexity. In this paper, we develop a stochastic-control perspective on feature-subsampled CART random forests, named CART random opportunity-set allocation (CART-ROSA). At each node, the random subset of features is interpreted as a random feasible action set, and the CART split rule as a masked-action allocation policy. This policy induces a controlled stochastic process over informative split-count states, whose terminal law determines both single-tree error and cross-tree interaction terms in the forest mean squared error (MSE). Such representation opens the black box of CART-forests by separating two design levers: the informative-opportunity rate induced by feature subsampling, and the contraction strength from the within-mask split policy. We establish that the CART policy is locally stabilizing: it contracts imbalances in informative split allocations and concentrates terminal tree geometry. At the system level, however, it can be globally suboptimal for the forest objective. Specializing to the linear model, we derive the MSE risk expansion explicitly. Our results show how an operations-research perspective makes tractable a theoretical gap difficult to access from the standard algorithmic description of CART forests.

Despite Japan being one of the world's largest advanced democracies, the development of election forecasting models for its national elections remains limited. This study introduces nonlinear machine-learning forecasting models, based on decision tree and ensemble learning methods, for predicting the outcomes of Japanese lower-house elections. To assess the methodological benefits of our approach, we replicated the theoretical framework and dataset of Lewis-Beck and Tien's (LBT) foundational statistical forecasting model for Japanese elections. Our models demonstrated moderately but consistently improved predictive accuracy compared to LBT's model in both in-sample and out-of-sample evaluations, suggesting that nonlinear algorithms offer an alternative approach to classical linear methods in capturing complex electoral dynamics. This study represents one of the earlier applications of nonlinear machine-learning techniques to single-country election forecasting. It offers a replicable framework that, when combined with the country-specific electoral theories of other nations, may enhance the predictive performance of forecasting models in broader national contexts.

Gradient-boosted trees achieve strong performance on tabular data, yet often leave a long tail of poorly predicted instances. We introduce a Trajectory-based Difficulty Score (TDS), an instance-level difficulty estimator for boosted ensembles derived from per-tree cumulative prediction trajectories. For each instance, we compute interpretable trajectory descriptors (e.g., variance, oscillation peaks, sign switches, and tail stability) and train a lightweight regression model to predict held-out loss. An empirical CDF calibrates the resulting signal into a score in $[0,1]$ that supports ranking hard cases. Across diverse tabular benchmarks and ensemble sizes, TDS exhibits strong rank correlation with error and outperforms established instance-hardness and uncertainty baselines on classification, while remaining competitive on regression. We then show how a single difficulty signal improves multiple data mining workflows: difficulty-driven active learning for label-efficient training, difficulty-thresholded selective prediction for improved risk-coverage trade-offs, and TDS-stratified (Mondrian) conformal prediction for more uniform conditional coverage. Finally, clustering high-TDS instances using SHAP attributions reveals coherent failure modes characterized by compact feature-value ranges, supporting error analysis and targeted data acquisition.

Explainability of deep learning algorithms is critical for computer-vision applications with high-stake decisions. Concept bottleneck models (CBM) have recently shown promising performance to provide explainable and accurate predictions for classification problems, based on a bottleneck of high-level concepts. Existing CBM methods rely on a linear aggregation of the concept scores to compute predictions. However, a large number of concepts is often used in this linear approach, which undermines explainability and favors information leakage. In general, the underlying relation between concepts and output logits is not linear. Therefore, we introduce Hoeffding Concept Bottleneck Models (HCBM), which build on the Hoeffding functional decomposition of gradient-boosted trees to provide non-linear and sparse aggregations of concept scores, and generate compact predictions using prime implicants. HCBM are proved to be robust to interconcept leakage, and outperform standard linear CBM in practice, as shown in extensive experiments. Beyond classification, HCBM can be adapted to object detection, and we focus on a challenging case with overhead images to show the high performance of HCBM in these settings.

Learning high-quality oblique decision trees remains a significant challenge due to the discrete and non-convex nature of split optimization. We present the Hinge Regression Tree (HRT) framework, which reframes each oblique split as a nonlinear least-squares problem over two linear predictors whose max/min envelope induces ReLU-like representation capacity. We show that the resulting node-level optimization can be interpreted as a damped Newton method, and we establish the monotonic decrease of the node objective for its backtracking line-search variant. We establish, theoretically, that HRT is a universal approximator with an explicit $O(δ^2)$ approximation rate. Building upon this base learner, we propose HRT-Boost, a mathematically synergistic ensemble extension that couples node-level Newton updates with stage-wise functional gradient descent. We show that this ensemble construction admits a stage-wise empirical risk reduction guarantee under the squared loss. Empirical evaluations on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show that HRT is highly competitive with established single-tree baselines, and HRT-Boost compares favorably with strong ensemble baselines and often yields substantially more compact models. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Hongyi-Li-sz/HRT-Boost.

Multi-center survival prediction can improve robustness and generalizability, yet privacy regulations and institutional governance often prevent pooling patient-level clinical and genomic data across institutions. In practice, deployment is further complicated by feature-space heterogeneity, in which sites collect different covariates or use different sequencing panels, resulting in only partially overlapping feature sets. We present FederatedRSF, a Python package that implements federated random survival forests, aggregating locally trained survival trees and redistributing only feature-compatible trees to each site, enabling inference with partial overlap without sharing raw data. We evaluate FederatedRSF on the GBSG2 breast cancer cohort distributed with the scikit-survival package, simulating feature heterogeneity across clients by withholding subsets of features, and assessing discrimination using Harrell's concordance index (C-Index) under repeated cross-validation and site-splits. The results demonstrated that the federated model can achieve performance comparable to that of the centralized training setting.

Random forests are widely used in fields involving sensitive tabular data, but existing approaches to enforcing differential privacy (DP) typically degrade performance to the point of impracticality. In this paper, we introduce Lumberjack, a differentially private random forest algorithm that achieves substantially higher utility by constructing large random decision trees and then applying aggressive, privacy-preserving pruning to retain only sufficiently populated nodes. A key component of our approach is a novel $(\varepsilon,δ)$-DP heavy hitter detection algorithm for hierarchical data, whose error is $O_{\varepsilon,δ}(\sqrt{\log h})$ for trees of height $h$ and may be of independent interest. This favorable scaling enables the use of significantly deeper trees than in prior work, leading to improved expressiveness under privacy constraints. Our empirical evaluation on benchmark datasets shows that Lumberjack consistently outperforms prior DP random forest methods, establishing a new state of the art. In particular, our approach yields substantial improvements in the privacy-utility trade-off for practical privacy budgets. Our findings suggest that carefully designed DP random forests can close much of the utility gap, highlighting a promising and underexplored direction for future research.

Decision trees assign identical confidence to instances near and far from each split threshold. We introduce ternary decision trees, which augment each split node with an uncertainty zone of half-width delta. A decision-theoretic framework characterises the optimal zone width delta* as the solution to a node-local cost-minimisation problem; four formal properties are established: accuracy decomposition, a sufficiency condition for decided accuracy improvement, an exact efficiency characterisation (eta = Dec-Acc minus Acc_u, the accuracy gap between decided and boundary-uncertain predictions), and asymptotic consistency of the margin method. Instances within the zone receive predictions by weighted blending of both child subtrees and are flagged as boundary-uncertain. We propose and evaluate five delta-estimation methods: quality-plateau (plateau width of the split criterion curve), class-overlap (empirical class-distribution overlap), gain-ratio (split quality relative to split entropy), node-bootstrap (threshold variance under node-level resampling), and margin (SVM-inspired distance to the nearest cross-class training example). All methods reuse statistics already computed during standard CART split finding, requiring no external noise specification. Evaluated across 71 of the 72 OpenML-CC18 datasets with 5-fold cross-validation, all five methods with probabilistic routing significantly outperform standard CART on decided accuracy (Wilcoxon signed-rank, p < 0.001). The margin method achieves the best efficiency (0.104 accuracy gain per unit flagging rate), wins on 42 of 72 datasets, and requires zero hyperparameters. Analysis on Breiman synthetic benchmarks confirms margin is self-calibrating on clean data. On mammography, node-bootstrap achieves +0.71% decided accuracy by flagging 10.8% of cases as boundary-uncertain.

Unsupervised anomaly detection is widely used in transaction fraud detection where labels are scarce. Isolation Forest (IF) is among the most popular classical methods due to its scalability and ease of deployment. We propose SilIF, an augmentation of Isolation Forest that adds a silhouette-based scoring layer computed in a representation space induced by the trees of the forest. For each point, we extract a vector of per-tree path lengths, cluster these "fingerprints" into structural groups, and compute a silhouette score that measures how well the point fits its assigned group versus the nearest alternative. The silhouette signal is combined with the base IF score via a single hyperparameter alpha. On the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection benchmark (~590K transactions, 3.5% fraud), SilIF with alpha=1.0 improves over plain Isolation Forest by +0.0080 AUC-PR on average across five seeds, with SilIF winning on all five seeds (paired t-test p=0.046). We also report results on a synthetic credit-card dataset (Sparkov) where the silhouette augmentation does not improve over plain IF, and we characterize the conditions that distinguish the two outcomes. The paper presents SilIF as a tunable, easy-to-deploy enhancement to Isolation Forest with honest reporting of when it helps and when it does not. Code at https://github.com/venkat15vk/silif-anomaly-detection.

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for market participants to support operational planning and risk management, yet remains challenging due to strong volatility, nonlinear dynamics, and frequent extreme price spikes. These challenges are particularly pronounced in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), where high renewable penetration further increases uncertainty. This paper investigates week-ahead electricity price forecasting and proposes a hybrid KAN+XGBoost framework that integrates Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KAN) with tree-based learning. The proposed approach combines the global nonlinear representation capability of KAN with the local robustness of XGBoost to capture both long-term dependencies and short-term price fluctuations. Experiments are conducted on real-world NEM data using an expanding window evaluation strategy. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms benchmark methods, including SARIMAX, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), standalone KAN, and XGBoost, reducing MAE by approximately 12% compared to XGBoost and by over 50% compared to a naive baseline. The results suggest that hybrid learning strategies provide an effective and robust solution for electricity price forecasting in highly dynamic electricity markets.

An accurate assessment of a model's complexity is crucial for topics such as interpretation, generalization, and model selection. However, most existing complexity measures either rely on heuristic assumptions or are computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we present a mathematically rigorous yet easy-to-compute measure of model complexity that is based on the similarities between the model gradients across inputs. It is thus well-defined for any parametric model, but also for kernel-based non-parametric models. We prove that our measure of complexity generalizes model-specific complexity measures such as polynomial degree (for polynomial regression), kernel length scale (for Matérn kernels), number of neighbors (for k-nearest neighbors), number of splits (for decision trees), and number of trees (for random forests). We also use our measure to obtain new insights into the double descent phenomenon for random Fourier features, random forests, neural networks, and gradient boosting.

Random forests construct each tree with a different, randomised representation of the feature space. Their uniform voting cannot correct errors in regions where trees with incorrect representations probabilistically outnumber correct ones, even when the ensemble collectively holds enough correct information - a reducible error that this paper addresses. We propose using the structural pattern of each tree's decision path as an instance-adaptive reliability signal to identify and differentially weight the more reliable trees. At inference, a random forest reaches its prediction through the root-to-leaf path the sample traverses in each tree, so path-level reliability offers a finer granularity than tree-level weighting can access. We show that this signal reflects the actual reliability of each tree's decision, and that using it yields a statistically significant accuracy improvement over RF on 36 binary classification benchmarks (Wilcoxon p < 0.0001). Class-recall regression - the typical failure mode of RF correction methods - is measured: zero minority-recall regressions and a single majority-recall regression at the 0.2 pp threshold, indicating bias reduction rather than a class trade-off. We further quantify the reducible error accessible to the method from the fitted RF alone; this estimate correlates strongly with per-dataset gain (Pearson r = +0.840, p < 0.0001). On the qualifying group it identifies, the method delivers a mean +0.99 pp accuracy improvement with strict wins on every dataset (7/0/0); an optional amplification mechanism further raises this to +1.48 pp.

This work proposes a pixel-classification approach for vessel segmentation in x-ray angiograms. The proposal uses textural features such as anisotropic diffusion, features based on the Hessian matrix, mathematical morphology and statistics. These features are extracted from the neighborhood of each pixel. The approach also uses the ELEMENT methodology, which consists of creating a pixel-classification controlled by region-growing where the result of the classification affects further classifications of pixels. The Random Forests classifier is used to predict whether the pixel belongs to the vessel structure. The approach achieved the best accuracy in the literature (95.48%) outperforming unsupervised state-of-the-art approaches.

This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70,000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail once transaction costs of ten basis points are imposed. A cost-aware execution filter, which prevents trades only when the forecast magnitude exceeds a transaction-cost-based threshold, sharply reduces turnover and restores profitability in selected configurations. The strongest long-only XGBoost strategy produces annualised returns above 65% with a Sharpe ratio above one. Additional tests show that technical indicators improve performance in selected cases, EGARCH-derived features do not provide uniformly robust gains, and XGBoost is descriptively stronger than the neural alternatives, although bootstrap evidence does not support formal statistical dominance. Loss-function and model-selection effects are secondary and statistically fragile. The results show that the main obstacle in hourly cryptocurrency trading is not only weak predictability, but also the way forecasts are converted into trades.

The exponential growth of big data has intensified the need for efficient and interpretable machine learning models that can handle diverse data characteristics while maintaining computational efficiency. Knowledge distillation has primarily focused on neural network-to-neural network transfer, leaving cross-paradigm knowledge transfer largely unexplored. This paper presents the first comprehensive study of bidirectional knowledge distillation between Random Forests (RF) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN), addressing critical gaps in ensemble learning and model compression for big data applications. We propose novel methodologies including progressive multi-stage distillation, multi-teacher ensemble distillation from diverse tree models, and uncertainty-aware cross-paradigm transfer mechanisms. Through 144 comprehensive experiments across 6 diverse datasets encompassing classification and regression tasks, we demonstrate that bidirectional RF-DL distillation achieves competitive performance while providing complementary benefits: interpretability from tree models and expressiveness from neural networks. Our results show that multi-teacher ensemble distillation consistently outperforms traditional approaches, with NN-COMPACT achieving 98.13% classification accuracy and NN-WIDE reaching 92.6% R^2 score in regression tasks. The proposed framework enables deployment flexibility in big data environments, allowing optimal model selection based on computational constraints and interpretability requirements. This work establishes a new research direction in cross-paradigm knowledge transfer with significant implications for interpretable AI and scalable model deployment in resource-constrained big data systems.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) now match or beat tuned gradient-boosted trees on a growing fraction of tabular tasks, but no single TFM wins on every dataset. Ensembling is the go to fix here, and it works less well than expected. Six modern TFMs form a near-redundant pool: their mean pairwise Q-statistic is $0.961$, close enough to $1$ that any convex combination is bounded above. We benchmark six ensemble strategies over six TFMs on 153 OpenML classification tasks. The best ensemble, two-level cascade stacking, buys $+0.18\%$ accuracy over the strongest single TFM at $253\times$ the compute. A Friedman and Nemenyi analysis places three ensembles and the best base TFM in a single equivalence group; three other ensembles are significantly \emph{worse} than the best base. Stacking with a logistic-regression meta-learner is the most striking case: competitive accuracy and ROC-AUC, the worst log-loss rank among the ensembles. The meta-learner improves accuracy by sharpening class boundaries, which destroys calibration. We recommend greedy selection as the practical default.

A fraud scorer needs to answer in under 2 ms. The best tabular foundation models (TFMs) take 151-1,275 ms on GPU. We close this gap by distilling the TFM offline into an XGBoost or CatBoost student that runs natively on CPU. The central obstacle is specific to in-context learning (ICL) teachers: they leak labels when scoring their own training set, so the soft targets collapse to near-one-hot vectors with no inter-class structure left to distill. Stratified out-of-fold (OOF) teacher labeling prevents this. Across 153 classification datasets drawn from TALENT, OpenML-CC18, TabZilla, and TabArena, distilling TabICLv2 into XGBoost gives 0.882 macro-mean AUC (96.5% of teacher AUC) at 1.9 ms on CPU, a 38x to 860x speedup across teacher-student pairs with a statistically significant edge over a tuned CatBoost baseline (Wilcoxon p = 0.0008; 51% win rate). Four further findings: teacher rank transfers exactly to student rank; gains concentrate on low-dimensional data (< 21 features: +0.011 over CatBoost vs. >21 features: +0.001); multi-teacher averaging helps MLP students (+0.006, p = 0.003) but adds less than 0.001 for tree students; and on high-dimensional tasks where the teacher itself trails CatBoost, distillation makes things worse rather than better. The full pipeline is open-sourced as part of the TabTune library.

Telecommunication fraud is an acute problem that leads to substantial material losses and compromises the reliability of telecom systems worldwide. Only effective and efficient detection mechanisms can help to deal with these threats, though there are certain shifts in the approaches to fraud detection. This paper evaluates the performance of AI-driven models for fraud detection in telecommunication networks using Call Detail Record (CDR) datasets. This study focuses on fraud detection in telecom networks using the Telecom CDR dataset, which contains 101,174 customer records with 17 attributes, including 8,830 fraud cases. In feature preprocessing, missing values were dealt with, followed by data scaling using Min-Max scaling and data balancing using the SMOTE technique. The dataset was trained for predictive analysis using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost models. F1-score, ROC AUC, recall, accuracy, time, and precision were used as indicators with which to compare performance of the two models. RF recorded a high level of accuracy at 99.9% while XGBoost at 99.7%. Findings show that the suggested framework successfully detects fraud with few misclassifications. Several machine learning models were evaluated and contrasted, such as RF, XGBoost, DBSCAN, RoBERTa, and K-means. Among all the models, RF was seen to give the highest performance with an accuracy of 99.9% and precision of 99.9%, recall of 99.9% and F1-score of 99.9%, XGBoost, GNN and BERT. The findings emphasize RF as the most effective model for detecting fraudulent activities in telecom networks, ensuring robust and reliable prevention of fraud.

Automated machine learning pipelines increasingly produce models whose predictions must be explained to end users, auditors, and downstream decision systems. The most widely used feature attribution methods (SHAP, Integrated Gradients, LIME) are typically chosen by convention rather than measured fidelity, because rigorous evaluation is impeded by the absence of ground-truth attribution on real data. We propose AGOP-IxG, a fast per-sample attribution method for tabular classifiers that pre-multiplies the per-sample gradient by a top-$K$ rank-truncated Average Gradient Outer Product matrix, and evaluate it against four widely-used baselines on a controlled tabular benchmark designed for AutoML practitioners. In Part 1, we construct three synthetic multi-class tabular tasks (linear, sparse nonlinear, interaction-based) where ground-truth attribution per sample is analytically or numerically derivable, and compare five methods: AGOP-IxG, SHAP (DeepExplainer), Integrated Gradients, InputXGradient, and LIME. AGOP-IxG leads on Spearman rank correlation and noise feature mass on all three synthetic datasets, and on top-$k$ precision on the interaction dataset. Across all settings, AGOP-IxG is approximately $350\times$ to $1{,}650\times$ faster than SHAP. In Part 2, we evaluate global faithfulness on Adult Income and Credit Card Default using the ROAR protocol; the methods cluster within $\sim 1.7\%$ relative AUC, consistent with AGOP-IxG being optimized for per-sample local attribution rather than global feature ranking.

Masked Diffusion Language Models MDLMs replace autoregressive generation with iterative demasking and their privacy properties are largely unstudied. We study membership inference attacks MIA on fine tuned MDLMs and show they are significantly more vulnerable than current grey box baselines suggest. We extract a 46 dimensional feature vector from the models reconstruction loss at four masking ratios and train XGBoost and MLP classifiers on top. On the MIMIR benchmark across six text domains XGBoost achieves mean AUC 0.878 peaking at 0.930 on Pile CC and beats the SAMA grey box baseline by 0.062 AUC on average. A leave one signal out ablation shows that the ELBO trajectory alone drives most of this with a mean drop of 0.130 when removed while attention features add almost nothing below 0.003. We also design a shadow model transfer attack where K equals 3 surrogate MDLMs trained on data from unrelated domains generate classifier labels with no access to the target domain. This achieves 0.858 mean AUC within 0.020 of the white box oracle and establishes shadow model transfer as a practical and near equally effective attack path.

Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) visualize how changes in a single feature affect the average model prediction. They are widely used in practice to interpret decision tree ensembles and other machine learning models. Joint-PDPs extend this idea to pairs of features, revealing their combined effect. Partial Dependence Interaction Values (PDIVs) measure feature interactions. The Any-Order-PDIVs task computes these interactions for every feature subset across all rows of the dataset. We introduce Woodelf++, a unified and efficient approach for computing all these useful explainability tools on decision tree ensembles, building on Woodelf, an algorithm for efficient SHAP computation. By deriving suitable metrics over pseudo-Boolean functions, Woodelf++ can compute PDPs (exact and approximate), Joint-PDPs, and Any-Order-PDIVs in a unified framework. Our method delivers substantial complexity improvements over the state of the art, including an exponential gain for Any-Order-PDIVs. Additionally, we introduce and efficiently compute Full PDPs, which leverage the model's split thresholds to faithfully capture its behavior across all possible feature values. Woodelf++ is implemented in pure Python and supports GPU acceleration. On a dataset with 400,000 rows, Woodelf++ computes PDP and Joint-PDP up to 6x faster than the state of the art and up to five orders of magnitude faster than scikit-learn. For Any-Order-PDIVs, the gap is even larger: Woodelf++ computes all interaction values in 5 minutes, while the state of the art is estimated to require over 1,000,000 years.

Pattern discovery in data plays a crucial role across diverse domains, including healthcare, risk assessment, and machinery maintenance. In contrast to black-box deep learning models, symbolic rule discovery emerges as a key data mining task, generating human-interpretable rules that offer both transparency and intuitive explainability. This paper introduces the Optimal Pattern Detection Tree (OPDT), a rule-based machine learning model based on novel mixed-integer programming to discover a single optimal pattern in data through binary classification. To incorporate prior knowledge and compliance requirements, we further introduce the Branching Structure Constraints (BSC) framework, which enables decision makers to encode domain knowledge and constraints directly into the model. This optimization-based approach discovers a hidden underlying pattern in datasets, when it exists, by identifying an optimal rule that maximizes coverage while minimizing the false positive rate due to misclassification. Our computational experiments show that OPDT discovers a pattern with optimality guarantees on moderately sized datasets within reasonable runtime.

Tabular data underpins most high-value prediction problems in science and industry, and TabPFN has driven the foundation model revolution for this modality. Designed with feedback from our users, TabPFN-3 builds on this foundation to scale state-of-the-art performance to datasets with 1M training rows and substantially reduce training and inference time. Pretrained exclusively on synthetic data from our prior, TabPFN-3 dramatically pushes the frontier of tabular prediction and brings substantial gains on time series, relational, and tabular-text data. On the standard tabular benchmark TabArena, a forward pass of TabPFN-3 outperforms all other models, including tuned and ensembled baselines, by a significant margin, and pareto-dominates the speed/performance frontier. On more diverse datasets, TabPFN-3 ranks first on datasets with many classes, and beats 8-hour-tuned gradient-boosted-tree baselines on datasets up to 1M training rows and 200 features. TabPFN-3 introduces test-time compute scaling to tabular foundation models. Our API offering TabPFN-3-Plus (Thinking) exploits this to beat all non-TabPFN models by over 200 Elo on TabArena, rising to 420 Elo on the largest data subset, and outperforms AutoGluon 1.5 extreme while being 10x faster, without using LLMs, real data, internet search or any other model besides TabPFN. TabPFN-3 extends the capabilities of our models, enabling SOTA prediction on relational data (new SOTA foundation model on RelBenchV1) and tabular-text data (SOTA on TabSTAR via TabPFN-3-Plus); and improves existing integrations: a specialized checkpoint, TabPFN-TS-3, ranks 2nd on the time-series benchmark fev-bench, and SHAP-value computation is up to 120x faster. TabPFN-3 achieves this performance while being up to 20x faster than TabPFN-2.5. In addition, a reduced KV cache and row-chunking scale to 1M rows on one H100 with fast inference speed.

Decision tree ensembles (DTE) are a popular model for a wide range of AI classification tasks, used in multiple safety critical domains, and hence verifying properties on these models has been an active topic of study over the last decade. One such verification question is the problem of sensitivity, which asks, given a DTE, whether a small change in subset of features can lead to misclassification of the input. In this work, our focus is to build a quantitative notion of sensitivity, tailored to DTEs, by discretizing the input space of the model and enumerating the regions which are susceptible to sensitivity. We propose a novel algorithmic technique that can perform this computation efficiently, within a certified error and confidence bound. Our approach is based on encoding the problem as an algebraic decision diagram (ADD), and further splitting it into subproblems that can be solved efficiently and make the computation compositional and scalable. We evaluate the performance of our technique over benchmarks of varying size in terms of number of trees and depth, comparing it against the performance of model counters over the same problem encoding. Experimental results show that our tool XCount achieves significant speedup over other approaches and can scale well with the increasing sizes of the ensembles.

During thDuring the last few years, the term Mechanistic Interpretability, a specific area, under the umbrella of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), has been introduced, to explain the decisions made by complex machine learning (ML) models in critical systems like UAV intrusion detection systems (UAVIDS). In this paper, we apply best-practices for data pre-processing and examine a wide range of tree-ensembles, deep neural networks, hybrid stacking models and the latest ensemble neural networks to detect intrusions in UAV, with stratified 10-fold cross validation. With our top-performing model, XGBoost, we proceed to Shapley Additive explanations (SHAP), to analyze the global and local feature importances and understand which features, each attack targets, to mimic normal traffic and where the misclassifications occur. Furthermore a distribution analysis follows, by visually comparing violin plots and the curves of kernel density estimations. With the Westfall-Young permutation test for multiple comparisons, the Bandwidth optimization of the KDEs and the selection of Jensen-Shannon Distance for the test, we discover the true causes of false predictions, observed in Wormhole and Blackhole attacks in UAVIDS-2025. The findings provide robust, reliable and explainable models for UAV intrusion detection, along with statistical insights, which capture and clarify the masked nature of the attacks, regarding the challenge of Density Support Intersection, between these attacks, in this dataset.

Decision tree learning has long been a central topic in theoretical computer science, driven by its practical importance. A fundamental and widely used method for decision tree construction is the top-down greedy heuristic, which recursively splits on the most influential variable. Despite its empirical success, theoretical analysis of this heuristic has been limited. A recent breakthrough by Blanc et al. (ITCS, 2020) provided the first rigorous theoretical guarantees for the greedy approach, but only under the uniform distribution. We extend this analysis to the more general and practically relevant setting of arbitrary product distributions. Our main result shows that for any function $f$ computable by an optimal decision tree of size $s$, maximum depth $D_{\text{opt}}$, and average depth $Δ_{\text{opt}}$, the greedy heuristic constructs an $ε$-approximating tree whose size grows at most with $\exp(Δ_{\text{opt}} D_{\text{opt}} \log(e/ε))$. In the special case where the optimal tree is a full binary tree, this bound improves upon the bound of Blanc et al. and holds under a strictly broader class of distributions. Moreover, we present an algorithm based on the top-down greedy heuristic that is entirely parameter-free -- it requires no prior knowledge of the optimal tree's size or depth -- offering a practical advantage over Blanc et al.'s method.

Detecting concept drift in high-speed data streams remains challenging, particularly when models must operate on unlabeled data and avoid false alarms caused by benign shifts. While disagreement-based uncertainty has shown promise in neural networks, its adaptation to ensembles of incremental decision trees (IDTs) remains largely unexplored. We investigate this approach by constructing batch-specific disagreement measures via label flipping in ensemble members and evaluating their effectiveness for drift detection in tabular data streams. Our experiments show that, although this method performs well in ensembles of multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs), it consistently underperforms loss-based detectors when applied to IDTs. We attribute this behavior to the intrinsic rigidity of IDTs: learning primarily through structural expansion, with limited parameter adaptation, restricts model plasticity and prevents disagreement from reliably reflecting learning potential. Recent work on restructuring IDTs using their intrinsic decomposition into non-overlapping rules offers a promising direction for improving adaptability.

Tree ensembles such as random forests (RFs) and gradient boosting machines (GBMs) are among the most widely used supervised learners, yet their theoretical properties remain incompletely understood. We adopt a spectral perspective on these algorithms, with two main contributions. First, we derive minimax-optimal convergence for RF regression, showing that, under mild regularity conditions on tree growth, the eigenvalue decay of the induced kernel operator governs the statistical rate. Second, we exploit this spectral viewpoint to develop compression schemes for tree ensembles. For RFs, leading eigenfunctions of the kernel operator capture the dominant predictive directions; for GBMs, leading singular vectors of the smoother matrix play an analogous role. Learning nonlinear maps for these spectral representations yields distilled models that are orders of magnitude smaller than the originals while maintaining competitive predictive performance. Our methods compare favorably to state of the art algorithms for forest pruning and rule extraction, with applications to resource constrained computing.

Streaming decision trees are natural candidates for open-world continual learning, as they perform local updates, enjoy bounded memory, and static decision boundaries. Despite these, they still fail in online class-incremental learning due to two coupled miscalibrations: (i) their split criterion grows unreliable as the class count K expands, and (ii) the absence of knowledge transfer at split time. Both failures share a common root: the range of Information Gain intrinsically scales with log2 K. Consequently, any Hoeffding-style confidence radius derived from it must inevitably grow with the class count, making a K-independent split criterion structurally impossible, taking away the potential benefits of applying streaming decision trees to continual learning. To fix this issue, we present MIST (McDiarmid Incremental Streaming Tree), which resolves both failures through three integrated components: (i) a tight, K-independent McDiarmid confidence radius for Gini splitting that acts as a structural regulariser; (ii) a Bayesian inheritance protocol that projects parent statistics to child nodes via truncated-Gaussian moments, with variance reduction guarantees strongest precisely when splitting is most conservative; and (iii) per-leaf KLL quantile sketches that support both continuous threshold evaluation and geometry-adaptive leaf prediction from a single data structure. On standard and stress-test tabular streams, MIST is competitive with global parametric methods on near-Gaussian benchmarks and uniquely robust on non-Gaussian geometry where SOTA benchmarks collapse.

Decision Trees (DTs) are widely used in safety-critical domains such as medical diagnosis, valued for their interpretability and effectiveness on tabular data. However, training accurate oblique DTs is challenging due to complex optimization landscapes and overfitting risks, particularly in regression. Recent advances have introduced differentiable formulations that enable gradient-based training and joint optimization of decision boundaries and leaf regressors. Yet, existing approaches typically rely on approximations, either through probabilistic softening of boundaries (soft DTs) or quantized gradients such as the Straight-Through Estimator (STE). To overcome these limitations, we propose DTSemNet, a novel, semantically equivalent, and invertible representation of hard oblique DTs as neural networks. DTSemNet enables end-to-end training with standard gradient descent, eliminating the need for approximations in both classification and regression. While classification aligns naturally with this formulation, regression remains challenging due to the joint optimization of internal nodes and leaf regressors. To address this, we analyze the limitations of STE and introduce an annealed Top-k method that provides accurate gradient signals without approximation. Extensive experiments on classification and regression benchmarks show that DTSemNet-trained oblique DTs outperform state-of-the-art differentiable DTs. Furthermore, we demonstrate that DTSemNet can serve as programmatic DT policies in reinforcement learning environments, thereby broadening their applicability.

Actionable Recourse provides individuals with actions they can take to change an unfavorable classifier outcome. While useful at the instance level, it is ill-suited for global auditing and bias detection, since aggregating local actions is costly and often inconsistent. Recourse Summaries address this limitation by partitioning the population and assigning one shared action per subgroup, enabling comparison across subgroups. Designing summaries involves a fundamental trade-off between recourse effectiveness and recourse cost, which existing methods do not adequately address. We introduce Summaries of Optimal and Global Actionable Recourse (SOGAR), which formulates recourse summary learning as an optimal decision tree learning problem and finds the Pareto front -- the complete set of solutions where improving one objective necessarily worsens the other. SOGAR enables post-hoc selection of the desired trade-off without retraining. Using shallow axis-parallel decision trees and sparse leaf actions, SOGAR produces stable, low-cost, and effective recourse summaries that outperform existing approaches across effectiveness and cost metrics.

Flight delays impose cascading operational and financial burdens across the aviation network, costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars annually by disrupting interconnected aircraft rotation systems. While prior machine learning approaches have demonstrated strong predictive performance, most treat upstream delays as static input variables rather than explicitly modeling how delays propagate dynamically through aircraft rotation chains, and none have deployed such systems alongside a live weather-aware conversational AI interface for end-user interaction. This paper presents FlightSense, an end-to-end MLOps platform for real-time flight delay prediction built through a progressive three-version feature engineering framework. Version 1 trains an XGBoost classifier on 11 schedule-based features establishing a baseline ROC AUC of 0.732 on 7.07 million BTS 2018 On-Time Performance records. Version 2 introduces 11 delay propagation features derived from aircraft rotation chains via tail-number tracking, yielding the dominant performance gain (AUC 0.732 to 0.875) and surpassing the single-stage XGBoost baseline reported by Zhou (2025). Version 3 integrates five NOAA meteorological features across 10 major U.S. airports, achieving a final test set AUC of 0.879. FlightSense is deployed as a production AWS MLOps pipeline incorporating live weather ingestion via Lambda, real-time SageMaker inference, an interactive Streamlit dashboard, and an Amazon Bedrock Nova Micro conversational assistant answering natural-language delay queries via a tool-use architecture.

Trust in counterfactual explanations depends critically on whether their recommended changes are truly minimal: suboptimal explanations may vastly overshoot the actual changes needed to alter a decision, and heuristic errors can affect individuals unevenly, giving some users relevant recourse while assigning others unnecessarily costly recommendations. Consequently, we study the problem of computing optimal counterfactual explanations for tree ensembles under plausibility and actionability constraints. This is a combinatorial problem: for a fixed model, counterfactual search boils down to selecting consistent branching decisions and threshold-defined regions under a distance objective. We exploit this structure through CPCF, a constraint programming (CP) formulation in which numerical features are encoded as interval domains induced by split thresholds, while discrete features retain native finite-domain representations. This yields a compact finite-domain formulation that supports multiple distance objectives without continuous split-boundary search. We then place CPCF in a broader comparison across mathematical programming paradigms: we extend a maximum Boolean satisfiability (MaxSAT) formulation, originally designed for hard-voting random forests, to soft-voting ensembles, and compare against the current state-of-the-art mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) optimal approach. Across ten datasets and three types of tree ensembles, we analyze scalability, anytime performance, and sensitivity to distance metrics. We observe that CP achieves the best overall performance. More importantly, our results identify regimes in which the specific strengths of each paradigm make it best suited: CP is most versatile overall, MaxSAT handles hard-voting ensembles particularly well, and MILP remains competitive in amortized inference settings with a moderate number of split levels.

The use of content features, particularly textual and linguistic for fake news detection is under-researched, despite empirical evidence showing the features could contribute to differentiating real and fake news. To this end, this study investigates a selection of content features such as word bigrams, part of speech distribution etc. to improve fake news detection. We performed a series of experiments on a new dataset gathered during the COVID-19 pandemic and using Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbor, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. Random Forest yielded the best results, followed closely by Support Vector Machine, across all setups. In general, both the textual and linguistic features were found to improve fake news detection when used separately, however, combining them into a single model did not improve the detection significantly. Differences were also noted between the use of bigrams and part of speech tags. The study shows that textual and linguistic features can be used successfully in detecting fake news using the traditional machine learning approach as opposed to deep learning.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been adapted to tabular prediction by serializing structured features into natural language, but their performance in low-data regimes remains limited compared to gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs). In this work, we revisit the boosting paradigm, traditionally associated with tree ensembles, and ask whether it can be applied as a general training principle for LLM fine-tuning. We propose BoostLLM, a framework that transforms parameter-efficient fine-tuning into a multi-round residual optimization process by training sequential PEFT adapters as weak learners. To incorporate tabular inductive bias, BoostLLM integrates decision-tree paths as a second input view alongside raw features; analysis reveals that the path view acts as a structured teacher in early training steps before the model shifts toward feature-driven representations. Empirically, BoostLLM achieves consistent improvements over standard fine-tuning across multiple LLM backbones and datasets, matching or surpassing XGBoost across a wide range of shot counts and outperforming GPT-4o-based methods with a 4B model. We further show that the framework scales: pairing with stronger tree models and extended boosting horizons yields additional gains under appropriate stabilization. These results suggest that boosting can serve as a general training principle for LLM fine-tuning, particularly in low-data regimes for structured data.

The exponential expansion of digital commerce in Indonesia has significantly shifted consumer interactions toward video-centric social networks, particularly YouTube. Consequently, the sheer volume of unstructured, multi-contextual comments poses a tremendous challenge for manual sentiment tracking. This study investigates and constructs a predictive model for customer satisfaction leveraging the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) architecture coupled with Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) vectorization. By utilizing a secondary dataset of YouTube comments retrieved from e-commerce review videos, the raw text underwent rigorous preprocessing to generate normalized numerical features. The experimental results demonstrate that the PyCaret-optimized machine learning framework delivers superior classification resilience. Beyond standard performance metrics, lexical evaluations and feature-importance mapping uncover a notable phenomenon: e-commerce discourse is heavily infiltrated by socio-political terminologies, which ultimately influence the polarity of audience satisfaction.

Gradient boosting remains a strong and widely used method for tabular data learning, but its performance often degrades when training labels are noisy. This behavior is largely related to the way boosting algorithms emphasize samples with large gradients, without explicitly accounting for whether such errors originate from informative hard cases or from unreliable labels. We address this issue by reconsidering how sample reliability is evaluated during boosting. Instead of relying on instantaneous error, we examine the evolution of each sample's residuals across iterations. Based on this insight, we propose Information-Theoretic Trust Boosting (ITBoost), which uses the Minimum Description Length principle to measure the complexity of residual trajectories. Samples whose residual patterns fluctuate in an irregular manner are treated as less trustworthy and are down-weighted during learning. Theoretically, we derive a tighter generalization bound for ITBoost under label noise. Empirical results on various tabular benchmarks indicate that ITBoost provides improved robustness in noisy environments over leading boosting and deep tabular models, while retaining best average performance on clean data.

Shapley values are a standard tool for explaining predictions of tree ensembles, with Path-Dependent SHAP being the most widely used variant. Despite substantial progress, existing methods still exhibit trade-offs between depth-dependent runtime, numerical stability, and support for higher-order interactions. To address these challenges, we introduce Quadrature-TreeSHAP, a quadrature-based reformulation of Path-Dependent TreeSHAP that is numerically stable, naturally extends to any-order Shapley interaction values and is practically insensitive to tree depth. Our implementation supports both CPU and GPU and is integrated into XGBoost. Our method is based on a weighted-Banzhaf interaction polynomial, which expresses Banzhaf interaction values as expectations under a feature participation probability $p$. Shapley values and any-order interaction values are then recovered by integrating these polynomials over $p$ from 0 to 1. We evaluate these integrals using Gauss-Legendre quadrature, and show that, in practice, only 8 fixed quadrature points are sufficient to reach machine precision. In fact, Quadrature-TreeSHAP with 8 fixed points achieves greater numerical stability than TreeSHAP. This fixed-point formulation removes depth dependence from the inner computation and enables efficient SIMD execution. We confirm these advantages empirically. On 12 XGBoost benchmarks, Quadrature-TreeSHAP computes Shapley values 1.06x-10.59x faster than TreeSHAP on CPU and 1.84x-6.95x faster than GPUTreeSHAP on GPU. Shapley pairwise interactions are 3.80x-58.11x faster on CPU, with higher-order interactions achieving speedups of up to 1200x compared to TreeSHAP-IQ.

Polytrees are a subclass of Bayesian networks that seek to capture the conditional dependencies between a set of $n$ variables as a directed forest and are motivated by their more efficient inference and improved interpretability. Since the problem of learning the best polytree is NP-hard, we study which restrictions make it more tractable by considering for example in-degree bounds, properties of score functions measuring the quality of a polytree, and approximation algorithms. We devise an algorithm that finds the optimal polytree in time $O((2+ε)^n)$ for arbitrarily small $ε> 0$ and any constant in-degree bound $k$, improving over the fastest previously known algorithm of time complexity $O(3^n)$. We further give polynomial-time algorithms for finding a polytree whose score is within a factor of $k$ from the optimal one for arbitrary scores and a factor of $2$ for additive ones. Many of the results are complemented by (nearly) tight lower bounds for either the time complexity or the approximation factors.

Risk scores are an interpretable and actionable class of machine learning models with applications in medicine, insurance, and risk management. Unlike most computational methods, risk scores are designed to be computed by a human by attributing points to a data sample based on a limited set of criteria. The most common approaches for generating risk scores use linear regressions to estimate the effect of selected variables. We propose a simple and effective approach towards building compact and predictive risk scores. We provide an algorithm based on gradient boosting that is capable of modeling nonlinear effects, along with a C++ implementation with Python and R bindings. Through extensive empirical evaluation on twelve tabular datasets spanning regression, classification, and time-to-event tasks, we show that our method achieves competitive predictive performance while producing substantially more compact scores than regression-based alternatives, with 60% fewer rules for classification tasks and 16% fewer rules for time-to-event tasks on average, compared to AutoScore.

The widespread adoption of machine learning in critical applications demands techniques to mitigate high-consequence errors. Our method utilizes a dual-classifier GBDT pipeline to distinguish routine human-like errors from high-risk non-human misclassifications. Evaluated across three domains, animal breed classification, skin lesion diagnosis (ISIC 2018), and prostate histopathology (SICAPv2), our framework demonstrates robust safety improvements. To address real-world deployment concerns, our results confirm the pipeline introduces negligible inference latency (1.60% overhead for the animal dataset, 1.84% for ISIC, and 1.70% for SICAPv2) while outperforming traditional Maximum Class Probability (MCP) baselines in correction precision. Our conservative correction strategy successfully reduced dangerous non-human errors by 34.1% in ISIC and 12.57% in SICAPv2, improving super-class diagnostic safety to 90.41% and 92.13% respectively. This proves that safety-critical reliability can be substantially enhanced post-hoc without expensive model retraining. keywords: Error Analysis, Post-hoc Correction, Trustworthy AI.