Out-Of-Distribution

Congenital heart disease (CHD) diagnosis and surgical planning often require patient-specific 3D anatomical models, but manual segmentation is labor-intensive, particularly in complex anatomies. Although deep-learning methods can automate this process, they are typically evaluated in-distribution, despite clinically relevant shifts in scanner, protocol, institution, population, and imaging modality. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic evaluation of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization in CHD segmentation, using ImageCHD as a held-out target cohort. We compare representative segmentation architectures under combined CT and CMR training, CT-only training, self-supervised pretraining, and limited target-domain adaptation. In-distribution performance proves to be a poor indicator of cross-cohort robustness: nnU-Net achieves the highest validation Dice (0.77) but falls to 0.51 on ImageCHD, while SwinUNETR generalizes substantially better, reaching 0.67 Dice. MAE and JEPA pretraining provide only modest additional benefit, suggesting that architecture contributes more to robustness than the tested pretraining strategies in this setting. When limited target-domain supervision is introduced, all SwinUNETR variants exceed 0.76 Dice with only 11 labeled ImageCHD cases. These findings demonstrate that conventional in-distribution evaluation can obscure clinically important generalization failures and support explicit cross-dataset testing as a key component of CHD segmentation evaluation.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is crucial for safe deployment of medical AI systems, where domain shifts arise across institutions, acquisition protocols, and patient populations. VLMs enable zero-shot OOD detection by embedding images into a language-aligned latent space, where cross-modal similarity serves as a non-parametric confidence signal for identifying in-distribution samples. Yet existing methods rely almost exclusively on final-layer embeddings, implicitly assuming that the deepest representations are universally optimal. We first show that this assumption does not hold in medical imaging: intermediate layers provide complementary OOD signals, and the optimal representational depth depends on the respective image modality. While prior work selects layer combinations via entropy minimization of normalized histograms, we demonstrate that single-resolution entropy estimation is highly sensitive to binning choices, leading to performance variations of up to 19.3% AUROC. To address this instability, we propose a multi-resolution entropy estimation strategy that aggregates histogram statistics across multiple discretization scales, enabling robust and stable intermediate-layer selection. Across two medical OOD benchmarks, namely MIDOG and OASIS, covering distinct imaging modalities, diverse shift types, and different VLM backbones, our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, offering a lightweight and stable solution for zero-shot OOD detection.

Object detectors have shown remarkable performance in various fields, among these medical imaging, surveillance, and autonomous driving. However, they are prone to overconfidence when encountering unseen objects in real-world deployments, causing potential safety issues. To address this, detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) objects is essential for reliable object detection. Modern approaches leverage the broad semantic knowledge of foundation models such as CLIP for post-hoc few- and zero-shot OOD detection. However, these methods typically perform OOD assessment in feature space, which can be sensitive to object detector localization errors and variations in object appearance. Moreover, the current state-of-the-art (SOTA) zero-shot method performs computationally costly diffusion in inference. In this work, for our proposed zero-shot object OOD detection method SAM3-O2D2, we employ the SAM3-image foundation model in an efficient manner. Specifically, we prompt SAM3 only with the object detector's predicted classes and compare the predictions of the object detector and SAM3. An object is in-distribution (ID), if SAM3 also detects an object at the corresponding location. If SAM3 does not detect the prompted object, this indicates a mismatch between the detector's prediction and the image content, suggesting that the object is OOD. Experimental results show that our method significantly surpasses the so-far zero-shot SOTA method. Specifically, we achieve new SOTA AuROC and FPR95 metrics over both ID datasets Pascal-VOC and BDD100K and both OOD datasets MS-COCO and OpenImages.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical for safe deployment of medical AI systems. Recently, test-time adaptation (TTA) has emerged as a new paradigm for OOD detection, automatically adjusting detector behavior during deployment. However, such automatic adaptation mechanisms may raise safety concerns in safety-critical clinical environments. While physician oversight can mitigate these risks, it is resource-intensive and must be judiciously allocated. To reconcile safety with efficiency, we propose CHILD, a training-free framework designed to enhance streaming OOD detection via sparse human feedback. Operating under strict budget constraints, CHILD employs an adaptive risk-aware sample selection mechanism to pinpoint only the most decision-uncertain samples for review. Crucially, it maximizes the utility of this sparse feedback through a retrieval-based score calibration module, which refines model predictions using a compact feature cache without any parameter updates. Extensive experiments on four medical benchmarks demonstrate that CHILD turns limited supervision into significant reliability gains: with a sparse feedback budget of only 5%, it reduces the average FPR95 from 72.63% to 60.26% and improves AUROC from 75.53% to 81.85%, consistently outperforming state-of-the-art baselines. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/figec/CHILD.

Generalising to unseen tasks remains a fundamental challenge in offline multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). In this work, we present a principled analysis of zero-shot task generalisation in the offline setting and conduct an extensive empirical investigation into the scaling behaviour governing task diversity, dataset size, and network capacity. To facilitate this study, we extend offline sequence modelling architectures to handle multi-task observation and action spaces alongside variable agent counts across tasks. Our primary finding is that scaling task diversity---rather than sheer dataset size is the dominant factor in achieving robust zero-shot transfer. Through large-scale experiments across four challenging environments (Connector, RWARE, SMAX, and LBF), we demonstrate that our multi-task approach achieves a mean improvement of 3.2x on held-out test tasks compared to single-task models and consistently outperforms strong behaviour cloning baselines. These results suggest that the development of generalisable MARL agents should prioritise the diversity of the training distribution with varying numbers of agents, providing a roadmap for scaling offline MARL effectively.

As large language models increasingly act through external tools, deciding when to call a tool has become a central problem alongside deciding how to use it. Unnecessary tool calls introduce latency, cost, retrieval noise, and error propagation, while missed calls hurt knowledge-intensive queries or questions requiring up-to-date evidence. Existing methods typically trigger tools from absolute query or generation signals, such as difficulty, confidence, or final task reward, and therefore lack an explicit estimate of the instance-level marginal benefit of tool use. We propose CoBRA, a counterfactual boundary-learning framework for tool-augmented language models. CoBRA first constructs internal and external experts from the same base model, collects paired trajectories, and estimates the reward margin between answering with and without tools. This margin partitions data into internal-favored, external-favored, and ambiguous cases. CoBRA then uses clear-margin samples for Boundary-Aware Cold-Start SFT, followed by MARS-RL with reference-split rollouts and counterfactual marginal advantages to optimize boundary decisions. Experiments with retrieval as the main tool on Qwen3-4B show that CoBRA improves tool-use efficiency and boundary-sensitive answer accuracy while maintaining strong performance on tool-dependent out-of-distribution questions.

Deep neural networks often exploit spurious associations, a failure known as shortcut learning. Before deployment, models should be audited for reliance on a set of concepts, such as acquisition artifacts or demographics. Current methods, such as linear probes and concept activation vectors, measure reliance by asking whether each concept, in isolation, is decodable from a layer. Their scores therefore reflect not only reliance but also correlations in the audit dataset. We introduce Independent Canonical cONcept (ICON) decomposition, which quantifies the share of a layer's variance each concept explains, conditional on all other concepts and the outcome. ICON scores are variance shares, comparable across layers and between continuous and categorical concepts. ICON also reports the share the set leaves unexplained. On simulated data, ICON recovers the true importance more accurately than seven baselines. On skin-cancer and neuroimaging models, ICON distinguishes learned shortcuts from correlated concepts, confirmed by retraining and out-of-distribution tests.

Despite the success of convolutional neural networks in image classification tasks and their general application in multi-modal models, their susceptibility to out-of-distribution and adversarial attack samples raises concerns regarding trustworthiness and safety. Among the approaches to tackle such issues, detection methods that analyze the model's intermediate activations to estimate a confidence score are a promising family that evaluates the decision process, relying on a dimensionality reduction step to enable efficient downstream processing of the high-dimensional activations. However, when considering convolutional layers, the dimensionality reduction methods in the literature either lack a mechanism to control the compression/information-loss trade-off or yield large representations. In this paper, we carefully analyze two state-of-the-art detection methods and their dimensionality reductions for convolutional layers and develop a novel reduction method with a controllable high-compression level. We extend these two state-of-the-art detection methods, enabling the usage of any dimensionality reduction, and evaluate their performance on out-of-distribution and adversarial attack detection. Results show that the detection methods with the proposed dimensionality reduction consistently perform better than, or comparable to, the strongest alternative. Furthermore, the proposed method is shown to reduce computation and memory footprints, given that it has the highest compression among the compared methods.

Federated Learning is a distributed machine learning paradigm that trains a global model by aggregating local clients without sharing private data of each client. Federated Distillation (FD) builds upon this paradigm by leveraging knowledge distillation to exchange soft predictions on proxy data instead of model parameters, enabling more efficient communication and supporting heterogeneous model collaboration. However, FD models trained on In-Distribution data are hardly adapted to Out-of-Distribution (OOD) scenarios. In this paper, we propose a domain-aware proxy selection framework to better adopt proxy data for OOD problems. The experimental results show that the proposed models effectively address the challenges of distribution shifts under OOD with and without proxy data by achieving average 82.9% and 80.6% over existing works on standard benchmarks. The codes and data are released in https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DPS-FD-8596.

Offline reinforcement learning (offline RL) can benefit from nearby out-of-distribution (OOD) actions, but estimation errors at these actions may be amplified by bootstrapping. Existing regularization and local-generalization methods control either the admissible OOD region or the influence of generalized targets, often through separate mechanisms. We propose Convex Hull Neighborhood Smooth Dual Generalization (CSDG), which expresses the Bellman backup as an in-sample value target plus a CHN-local correction. This formulation makes the generalized contribution explicit and separates it from the in-sample reference path. The correction is obtained by smoothing in-sample-oriented and OOD-oriented candidates sampled at different perturbation radii. A mixture coefficient lambda scales its contribution to each backup, while the recursive discount remains gamma. Under boundedness and fixed perturbation kernels, we derive an exact one-step correction identity, a time-varying iterate bound, and a fixed-point bound that depends only on the branch discrepancy at the fixed point. We further characterize the implicit policies induced by the idealized operators and give a conditional non-degradation criterion. The practical algorithm approximates these quantities using asymmetric bounded noise and expectile regression, without exact support classification or an additional pessimistic OOD penalty. Experiments on Gym-MuJoCo and AntMaze show strong aggregate performance and stable value estimation. Code is available at: https://github.com/YOUNG-fnxm/CSDG

Safe deployment of AI methods in medicine requires robust guardrails that detect when input data deviate from the training distribution to ensure that models provide predictions only within their scope of expertise and abstain otherwise. Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection can provide such safeguards and is extensively studied in general computer vision. Yet, it remains underdeveloped in computational pathology, where gigapixel whole-slide images (WSIs), subtle differences between disease subtypes, and variability in tissue preparation pose unique challenges for conventional OOD methods. We propose ZIO, a training-free, multimodal OOD detector for pathology WSIs that leverages vision--language pathology foundation models (FMs). ZIO constructs text and visual prototypes of in-distribution classes and integrates their complementary information through a prototype shrinkage mechanism to derive OOD scores. We provide the ZIO formulation for both slide- and patch-level FMs. We evaluate ZIO across diverse clinically relevant domain shifts, including rare diseases and near-OOD settings. Extensive evaluation of over 14,700 WSIs from five independent consortia shows that ZIO consistently outperforms both unimodal prototypes and 40 state-of-the-art OOD methods. These results demonstrate the benefits of multimodal representation for OOD detection and pave the way towards safer AI deployment in clinical practice.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are attractive for resource-constrained remote-sensing systems, but reliable out-of-distribution (OOD) detection remains challenging. Deep ensembles provide strong predictive uncertainty, yet require multiple complete models and backbone evaluations. We propose an efficient spiking pseudo-ensemble that attaches multiple lightweight classification heads to a frozen SNN backbone. Naively training these heads with cross-entropy can lead to diversity collapse, where independently parameterized heads may produce correlated predictions. To address this, we introduce an agree--disagree objective that preserves correct predictions on clean in-distribution samples while encouraging diversity on structured, uncertainty-inducing transformations of the same inputs. This provides a diversity-promoting training signal without requiring external OOD data. Experiments with Spikformer and ResNet19-SNN on EuroSAT demonstrate consistent improvements over conventionally trained pseudo-ensembles. Using three backbones with five heads each matches or improves upon a five-model deep ensemble on UCM and AID, while requiring approximately 38% fewer parameters and 40% fewer backbone evaluations. These results show that explicit diversity promotion can recover useful ensemble-style uncertainty at substantially lower deployment cost.

The primary challenge of continual learning (CL) systems is to learn new tasks while remaining performant on previously learned tasks. A similarly important though less well-studied aspect of CL systems is their ability to distinguish inputs that are unlikely to come from within the set of tasks the system has already encountered, often called out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. This paper presents several findings related to the dynamics of OOD detection in CL systems, causes of performance degradation over time which we call OOD forgetting (OODF), and proposed mitigation strategies for this degradation. Chiefly, we find the unintuitive result that OODF is only weakly anti-correlated with classification performance on previous tasks, suggesting that the underlying mechanisms producing OODF are distinct. Moreover, this effect is observed for both energy-based and feature-based OOD detection methods. Energy-based detectors suffer a drop in logit scale as additional tasks are learned, which we term the Confidence Gap, while feature-based detectors also degrade under a complementary effect we call Manifold Crowding. Motivated by these observations, we propose TOOD, a training-free post-hoc method that decomposes logits into per-task energy scores and re-calibrates them using replay-buffer statistics. Experiments on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and a 100-task ImageNet-1K stream show that TOOD improves OOD detection performance over uncalibrated energy in most settings and ranks first or second in nine of ten CIFAR configurations, with the largest gains when the confidence gap is most severe. These results suggest that a substantial portion of OOD deterioration in continual learning arises from score miscalibration rather than from a complete loss of discriminative structure.

Security-critical biometric and forensic applications require accurate predictions and reliable confidence estimates, particularly under distribution shift. This challenge is especially acute for deepfake detection, where foundation-model-based detectors often exhibit overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution manipulations, which limits their suitability for operational deployment. We propose an uncertainty-aware deepfake detection framework that identifies manipulations through inconsistencies across complementary evidence sources. The framework integrates three streams: a visual stream based on an adapted CLIP encoder, a semantic stream that models consistency among facial attributes through differentiable constraints, and a structural stream that captures class-dependent dependency patterns between semantic and forensic features. To effectively combine these signals, we introduce Inter-Branch Disagreement Calibration (IBDC), a disagreement-aware uncertainty modeling mechanism that links predictive uncertainty to conflicts among evidence streams. Extensive cross-dataset experiments using FaceForensics++ as the training source demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art generalization across multiple out-of-distribution benchmarks while consistently improving calibration and selective prediction performance. These results show that combining complementary evidence with disagreement-aware uncertainty provides a robust foundation for trustworthy and well-calibrated deepfake detection under distribution shift.

Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have emerged as novel approaches for tabular predictive tasks, demonstrating competitive predictive performance to ensemble tree-based models. Most TFMs are trained and evaluated on independent and identically distributed data, but this assumption changes in real-world scenarios due to distribution shifts, which compromise the robustness of models. Limited research has been conducted of TFMs under distribution shifts. We present an empirical evaluation of Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) performance of nine TFMs, spanning diverse pre-training strategies and architectures: TabPFNv2, TabPFNv2.5, TabPFNv2.6, TabPFNv3, TabICL, TabICLv2, Mitra, LimiX and TabFM. Three real-world datasets from the TableShift study were considered (HELOC, Voting, Childhood Lead), covering label, socioeconomic, and geographic shift types. Our results show that all evaluated TFMs degrade systematically under distribution shift regardless of pre-training strategy, with shift gaps ranging from 0.003 to 0.060 depending on shift type. The relationship between in-distribution and OOD predictive performance documented for classical tabular models extends into TFMs. We also identified a scalability gap, as high-performing models demand significant memory and computational resources beyond what standard deployment infrastructure can support. This study extends existing benchmarks for OOD in tabular data, providing evidence to support their adoption in high-stakes domains characterized by structural distribution shifts.

A Last-Layer Ensemble (LLE), $K$ linear units on one shared frozen feature map, is an efficient single-pass approach to the disagreement-based epistemic uncertainty for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. Its weakness is that members share the backbone gradient and can converge toward the same function, collapsing the inter-member diversity the signal depends on. Whether last-layer diversity can be restored, and what mitigates the collapse, is an open question. The weight-orthonormality defining Orthonormal Certificates (OC), the weight-orthonormal special case of the LLE, is only an indirect correction; it decorrelates the weights of the members, not their predictions. Here, we instead target the collapse directly in function space, with a Covariance Last-Layer Ensemble (cov-LLE) that places a direct covariance penalty on member activations. Cov-LLE restores the function-space diversity that weight-orthonormality cannot, and at matched $K$ recovers much of the diversity and calibration of a deep ensemble at $1\times$ backbone cost (in-distribution prediction variance $0.05\!\to\!9.3$ vs. $22.1$ ($\times10^{-3}$), and ECE $0.135\!\to\!0.090$ vs. $0.035$, for a $K\times$-cost deep ensemble), at no cost to accuracy. Viewing OC as a last-layer ensemble also organizes detectors into a two-axis taxonomy (by how their units are trained and how their outputs are scored) and exposes the OC score as a magnitude, motivating a scale-invariant, label-free direction score that repairs its near-OOD failure, adding $+0.16$ to $+0.18$ ROC AUC on every backbone.

Test-time adaptive out-of-distribution (OOD) detectors update a memory bank from the unlabelled stream. We show this adaptation obeys a provable dynamical law. Modelling bank impurity as a generalized Pólya urn, we prove almost-sure convergence to a mean-field equilibrium whose slope acts as a reproduction number. Below one, impurity stays benign. Above one, the bank is fully poisoned and the detector collapses. The measured admission kernel is affine ($R^2 \ge 0.996$) with slope just below one in every encoder family (a protocol signature), so this detector class is near-critical by design, and across 96 settings the predicted threshold matches the empirical collapse, where ungated dictionaries lose up to $0.163$ AUROC. We then prove that a certified admission gate, reading only a frozen reserve, severs the feedback loop and removes the transition at every contamination rate, even adversarially, while controlling false positives label-free. For the complementary static-calibration failure under drift we give CDC, which restores nominal FPR label-free on all tested drift-affected cells. Finally we prove a two-world impossibility theorem. Drift and contamination are indistinguishable without labels, forcing a closed-form power ceiling our procedure approaches. Together these give a complete possibility/impossibility characterization of label-free adaptive OOD detection.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models excel at end-to-end robotic manipulation but struggle with out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization when familiar sub-tasks are recombined in unseen configurations. We identify two mutually reinforcing failure modes: \emph{trajectory overfitting}, where models overfit to holistic trajectory patterns rather than compositional sub-skill semantics; and \emph{perceptual shortcut}, where action tokens over-rely on wrist-view textures at the expense of global spatial grounding. To address both, we introduce \textbf{AC-VLA}, a plug-and-play Action Compositional learning framework comprising two architecture-agnostic components: \textbf{(i)} a compositional learning module that uses an LLM-driven instruction decomposer and a proprioceptive trajectory aligner to generate dense sub-task supervision, followed by mixed training on complete demonstrations and decomposed data to endow the model with compositional generalization; and \textbf{(ii)} a state-conditioned asymmetric masking strategy that suppresses wrist-view inputs during closed-gripper phases, enforcing global semantic grounding. All components are architectural modification-free and directly integrable into any VLA backbone. Instantiated on $π_{0.5}$ and evaluated on LIBERO and LIBERO-OOD benchmarks, AC-VLA achieves a ~28% absolute improvement on compositional OOD tasks while maintaining near-perfect in-distribution performance.

Reliable reinforcement learning (RL) agents must maintain operational integrity amidst sensor malfunctions, dynamic disturbances, and slow environmental shifts. The detection of out-of-distribution conditions is pivotal to determining when an agent's observations, transitions, or trajectory dynamics deviate from the assumptions underpinning its policy training. Current out-of-distribution (OOD) detection benchmarks typically evaluate image classifiers or static low-dimensional datasets, failing to account for the complex, action-dependent temporal structure inherent in RL trajectories. To address this gap, we present OOD-RL-Bench, a comprehensive and extensible framework designed to evaluate OOD detectors against categories of anomalies injected into RL trajectories. Detectors and anomaly injectors are integrated through shared interfaces and configuration, which allows new scoring methods and perturbation families to be evaluated without modification of the core benchmark loop. We evaluate the utility of the framework using a Deep Q-Network policy within the LunarLander-v3 environment. We assess the performance of each detector across a suite of anomaly types using matched-time AUROC, matched-time AUPRC, matched-time false-positive rate, detection delay, and segmented-onset metrics. Our analysis reveals significant performance variance across anomaly types: observation perturbations and regime switches are identified with high accuracy by several methods, while observation delay and action-conditioned dynamics remain difficult even when post-onset anomaly scores are compared against clean scores from the same timesteps. We make the framework, trained policy checkpoint, and complete results publicly available as a reproducible artefact.

Reliable detection of out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is crucial for the safe deployment of machine learning models. Neural networks often produce overconfident predictions for inputs that deviate from their training data, leading to significant degradation in performance. While many OOD detection methods focus on the final output layer, they neglect the rich hierarchical information present in intermediate network layers. This paper introduces a novel approach that leverages sparse autoencoders (SAEs) to learn interpretable features from these intermediate activations. We find that in-distribution (ID) and OOD data activate distinct sets of these sparse features. We propose a new OOD score derived from the cosine similarity between the sparse feature activations of a test sample and the mean activations of ID classes. Our post-hoc detection method not only achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard OOD detection benchmarks, but yields interpretable insights into how distribution shift affects learned representations.

Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) represent data by shaping an energy landscape over visible and hidden configurations, but their discriminative use is fragile under out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs: samples outside the training distribution can be absorbed into one of the learned class basins rather than rejected. Here, we analyze this failure mode through the spectrum of the induced visible--visible interaction $J=WW^{T}$, where $W$ is the visible--hidden weight matrix. Relative to a Marchenko--Pastur random-matrix reference, conventional training spreads spectral weight into many weak, bulk-compatible directions, increasing the effective rank of $J$. When auxiliary random binary images are assigned to a rejection label during training, the learned interaction undergoes effective-rank collapse: weak bulk-like modes are depleted, spectral weight concentrates into fewer dominant eigendirections, and the effective rank of $J$ approaches that of the empirical data covariance matrix. The resulting RBM rejects structured OOD image datasets while preserving MNIST classification accuracy, showing that random auxiliary exposure can reshape both the interaction spectrum and the free-energy landscape of an energy-based classifier.

On-policy distillation is a practical post-training recipe for large language models, supplying dense teacher supervision on the student's own trajectories. In privileged-context self-distillation, teacher and student are the same model conditioned on the same prefix, but the teacher also sees a hint or the full solution trace. This makes supervision abundant but harder to trust: the teacher can be confident about continuations its privileged view makes obvious but the student cannot yet justify. The distillation pull is strongest where teacher and student disagree most, and over many updates it accumulates into drift that degrades out-of-distribution (OOD) reasoning. We introduce GeoSD, a geometric self-distillation objective that treats this drift as movement in the student's predictive behavior and counters it in two complementary ways. A Hellinger loss scales each teacher preference by the overlap the student already shares with it, attenuating the pull on tokens the student cannot yet support. Since these pulls still compound over training, a proximal term penalizes how far the student's predictions drift from a recent checkpoint, measured as a Fisher-Rao distance. Both are distances in the same geometry of next-token distributions, and a natural-gradient update takes its steps in that geometry rather than in parameter space. Across mathematical reasoning benchmarks and three model families, GeoSD preserves the in-distribution gains of self-distillation while improving average OOD accuracy by 5.7-8.6 points over the base model, with gains holding across model scales from 1.7B to 32B. Analyzing why standard matching fails out of distribution, we find it wins agreement with the teacher by draining mass from alternatives at high-entropy states, resulting in confident agreement on wrong answers, whereas GeoSD keeps those alternatives in reach.

Neural networks are increasingly used to infer hidden physical structure from dynamical observations, yet it remains unclear whether their out-of-distribution performance reflects transferable physical rule learning. We address this question in a controlled inverse problem: reconstructing interaction graphs of a kinetic Ising model from Glauber magnetization trajectories. Across convolutional, graph, Transformer, and hybrid architectures, we find that data-driven training produces distinct and reproducible statistical strategies under topology and temperature shifts. Edge-population diagnostics reveal that Transformer-based models tend to preserve the link density of the training ensemble, whereas convolutional models can collapse toward sparse- or no-link predictions that appear out-of-distribution stable by exploiting the majority no-link class. Thus, high in-distribution accuracy and apparent out-of-distribution robustness do not necessarily imply a learned dynamics-to-structure rule. Instead, neural reconstruction can be governed by architecture-dependent statistical priors. Our results identify a concrete failure mode of standard data-driven learning in physical inverse problems and motivate rule-guided principles for machine-learning-assisted scientific discovery.

For clinical deployment, it is essential that automated diagnostic systems remain reliable when confronted with previously unseen cases, yet deep models routinely misclassify out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs with high confidence, underscoring the need for more robust OOD detection methods. Although substantial effort has been devoted to improving model robustness, most of the existing literature assumes balanced datasets, evaluates OOD detection on coarse or non-clinical OOD sources, or lacks comprehensive assessment across diverse OOD scenarios. To address the gaps, we propose a novel methodology trained on diverse and imbalanced medical datasets and evaluated across a clinically reflective OOD spectrum. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Nonlinear von Mises-Fisher (NvMF) classifier capable of learning non-linear decision boundaries, with theoretical proof of its asymptotic connection to cosine classifiers; (2) a multi-expert framework in which margin-aware NvMF classifiers specialise in different regions of label distribution to better handle imbalance; and (3) an outlier expert trained explicitly to distinguish inlier from outlier data, thereby strengthening OOD detection. Evaluation on RFMiD, ISIC2019, and NCTCRC datasets demonstrates consistent improvements over state-of-the-art methods, achieving mean FPR95 reductions of 8.45%, 13.02%, and 36.90% respectively. These gains are further supported by comprehensive ablations that validated the contributions of each component. This enables reliable identification of unfamiliar cases for deferral to clinicians, supporting safer AI-assisted diagnosis in real-world workflows. Our code is available at https://github.com/redboxup/MARVEL.

Looped Transformers, which repeatedly apply a shared transformer block, are an architecturally natural fit for variable-length algorithmic tasks. Although they can exhibit strong length generalization beyond the length of training sequences, this behavior is brittle, yielding high out-of-distribution (OOD) variance, even across well-performing in-distribution solutions. We trace this variance to the spurious correlation in simple algorithmic tasks between sequence length and number of loops. Introducing stochasticity into the number of loops during training sharply reduces OOD variance and stabilizes predictions across inference-time loop counts. To improve upon heuristic randomization schemes, we further analyze RL-Halting as a learned stochastic schedule and find that it generally improves the accuracy-stability trade-off. Across binary addition, Dyck-1, Unique Set, and Copy, learned stochastic stopping often improves this trade-off but can also stabilize a suboptimal computation. Our work suggests that "when to stop" should be treated as a training-time design choice, not merely an inference-time computation-allocation rule.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) data is crucial for reliable machine learning deployment. Among detection strategies, post-hoc methods are particularly attractive due to their efficiency, as they operate directly on pre-trained networks without requiring retraining. Within this paradigm, one promising direction exploits loss-landscape curvature to estimate model uncertainty; however, such methods incur substantial computational cost and rely on implicit assumptions about how landscape flatness differs between in-distribution (ID) and OOD data. In this work, we provide the first systematic investigation of this curvature discrepancy and show that OOD inputs exhibit larger Hessian curvature than ID data, with the gap widening under stronger distributional shifts. Motivated by these observations, we propose Fold, a lightweight flatness-modulated OOD detector that leverages the feature Hessian and partial feature normalization to improve ID-OOD separability while avoiding costly parameter-space curvature approximations. To optimally adapt this normalization across diverse datasets, we further introduce AutoFold, a self-supervised tuning scheme that synthesizes pseudo-OOD samples via ID logit masking for automatic calibration without requiring external data. Experiments on OOD benchmarks show that Fold outperforms prior methods, improving the average AUROC by 1.63% and reducing FPR95 by 2.30%, while maintaining computational efficiency comparable to a standard forward pass. Supported by theoretical analysis and extensive ablations, Fold provides a principled and practical solution for robust real-world deployment.

Structured reasoning requires making and revising interdependent decisions to reach a globally consistent solution. Existing architectures struggle with this: autoregressive models commit sequentially and cannot revise earlier decisions, while masked diffusion models often require careful decoding schemes to coordinate interdependent predictions. We introduce Flow Reasoning Models (FRMs), a novel framework for structured reasoning that adapts continuous flows over discrete structured outputs with a simple recurrent refinement mechanism. By self-conditioning a flow model on its own past outputs, we turn one-shot denoising into iterative solution refinement. This lets FRMs make and revise decisions in parallel, efficiently coordinating interdependent choices across solutions. Yet conventional self-conditioning becomes unreliable at greater recurrent depth due to exposure bias between one-step training predictions and recursively generated inference states. We address this mismatch with Fixed-Point Forcing (FPF), which trains FRMs on states produced by their own inference dynamics while preserving the standard flow-matching objective. FRMs achieve solve rates of $99.5\%$, $100.0\%$, and $99.9\%$ on Sudoku-Extreme, Zebra, and Maze-Unique, respectively. On Sudoku-Extreme, FRMs achieve higher peak accuracy than the evaluated masked-diffusion and specialized reasoning baselines while remaining highly compute-efficient, matching the next-best method's $98.7\%$ peak solve rate with $44\times$ fewer inference FLOPs.

Pre-trained transformers have demonstrated remarkable generalization abilities, at times extending beyond the scope of their training data. Yet, real-world deployments often face unexpected or adversarial data that diverges from training data distributions. Without explicit mechanisms for handling such shifts, model reliability and safety degrade, urging more disciplined study of out-of-distribution (OOD) settings for transformers. By systematic experiments, we present a mechanistic framework for delineating the precise contours of transformer model robustness. We find that OOD inputs, including subtle typos and jailbreak prompts, drive language models to operate on an increased number of fallacious concepts in their internals. We leverage this device to quantify and understand the degree of distributional shift in prompts, enabling a mechanistically grounded fine-tuning strategy to robustify LLMs. Expanding the very notion of OOD from input data to a model's private computational processes, a new transformer diagnostic at inference time is a critical step toward making AI systems safe for deployment across science, business, and government.

The incorporation of additional modalities into action recognition models increases their performance across a wide range of settings. However, how this additional information can contribute to making the models more robust remains underexplored, particularly for the case of multi-modal out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. While methods exist that regularize the multi-modal training process with OOD detection in mind, they still apply off-the-shelf OOD detectors designed for the uni-modal case during inference, discarding important information. Based on an interesting relationship we find between the multi-modal and uni-modal predictions, we propose to use this signal to build a post-hoc detector explicitly designed for the multi-modal scenario. We combine this new source of information with a feature-space score, which detects off-manifold samples in the multi-modal space, and normalize them by the multi-modal logits. In doing so, the proposed hybrid detector is compatible with existing training-time approaches and consistently improves performance. Experiments on a wide range of established datasets from the MultiOOD benchmark show that, on average, our approach outperforms the state of the art. Our results show the importance of explicitly considering the different modalities at inference time for multi-modal OOD detection.

Pretrained vision models often misclassify inputs that are rotated, scaled, or sheared, even though these affine transformations leave the object class unchanged. Robustness is usually restored either by building equivariance into the architecture or by retraining with augmentation, both of which require changing or retraining the model. Test-time canonicalization instead leaves the classifier untouched. It undoes the transformation of each input, mapping it to a canonical form near the training distribution before classification. Existing canonicalizers, however, rely on a narrow set of logit-based energy scores and bespoke search procedures, leaving the design space of scoring functions and optimizers unexplored. We reframe canonicalization as out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, which lets any OOD score serve as the energy minimized over transformations. Across benchmarks ranging from handwritten characters and sketches to natural images and 3D point clouds, we systematically evaluate around twenty OOD scores and nine search algorithms, finding that distance-based scores paired with random search and local refinement perform best overall. Because canonicalizing an already-aligned input can hurt accuracy, we add a gated mechanism that transforms an input only when its OOD score indicates this is needed, preserving most in-distribution accuracy while retaining the robustness gains on transformed inputs. Code is available at github.com/johschm/its.

Foundation models provide highly descriptive representations for medical images, yet their reliability degrades under distribution shifts arising from changes in patients, devices, or acquisition conditions. Reliable out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is therefore essential for safe deployment. Recent post-hoc detectors efficiently exploit frozen embeddings (e.g., kNN), whereas reconstruction-based OOD detection in latent feature space has seen limited adoption due to inconsistent performance. In this work, we show that the limitation of reconstruction-based methods in latent space does not stem from poor reconstruction quality, but from how reconstruction errors are scored. Standard L2 residual norms collapse the anisotropic residual structure, thereby suppressing informative deviations. To address this limitation, we introduce MaRS (Mahalanobis Residual Scoring), a label-free OOD detector that learns an in-distribution manifold using a lightweight autoencoder and measures deviation via a Mahalanobis distance on reconstruction residuals, yielding variance-aware OOD scores. Across three imaging modalities, multiple types of distribution shift, and different model families and scales, MaRS outperforms established confidence-, distance-, and reconstruction-based baselines, while remaining fully post-hoc and lightweight. The code is available at https://github.com/francescodisalvo05/mars.

Rejecting inputs outside the defined in-distribution (IND) service scope is critical for large language model (LLM) services, where unsupported requests should be filtered before full generation. Existing out-of-distribution (OOD) detectors often rely on final outputs or final-layer representations, leaving unclear where service-boundary signals are most clearly encoded inside the model; they also lack a theoretical guarantee for held-out inputs. In this paper, we introduce SCOPE (Sequential Conformal OOD Probing and Evaluation), a framework that selects a readable hidden layer, constructs a conformal gate with IND calibration, and uses a supermartingale e-process to certify persistent service-boundary evidence. Experiments across multiple LLM backbones and six carefully designed boundary conditions show that SCOPE improves gate-level rejection over standard final-layer detectors, while revealing how different OOD boundaries take different geometric forms in hidden space.

Understanding the generalization capabilities of visuomotor policies is essential in the development of capable robotic agents. Generalizable models learn structures that transfer across domains. However, in practice, visuomotor policies test performance by interpolation on known distributions using unstructured domain shifts (e.g. lighting, clutter, diverse objects). We argue that to measure generalization capabilities we must instead test the inductive capacity of policies on progressively harder, out-of-distribution task variants. We call this inductive generalization, drawing directly on how axis-based evaluation has revealed inherent generalization limitations in language models (e.g. sequence length, counting) arXiv:2502.00197 . We provide a reusable and formal evaluation protocol for measuring inductive generalization in any manipulation policy, and establish baselines showing that existing paradigms fail this test; e.g. SoTA Vision-Language-Action models and find that policies that appear to generalize to prior domain shifts (distractors, etc) fail inductive generalization tests. These results expose a class of learning challenges orthogonal to those addressed by data and model scaling in robot learning, yet are imperative to solve in order to realize general purpose robots.

As Self-Driving Cars continue to expand internationally and use multi-modal systems such as VLMs as a cognitive backbone for their Action models; how well will these systems generalize in new settings, in particular out-of-distribution (OOD) edge-case scenarios in new geographies? In this paper, we study this open question by providing a full factorial analysis with human drivers of Lima, human drivers from New York City, and VLMs and showing them dashcam footage collected from Lima and New York City -- prompting them with a variety of questions under a Visual Question Answering (VQA) paradigm. In particular, we pick these two cities as they are highly challenging driving locations where no Self-Driving Car company currently operates in, and ask questions that span 4 categories: Factual, Ratings, Counterfactual and Reasoning. We find that Humans and VLMs diverge in their responses -- though this is modulated by the type of questions asked, and that Humans answer similarly independent of where they are from (Lima/NYC). To our surprise, we did not find a strong difference in terms of answers (Humans or VLMs) that was modulated by geography, likely due to their high out-of-distribution nature. Our dataset is available at: https://huggingface.co/datasets/Artificio/robusto-2

Medical vision-language models (VLMs) enable zero-shot clinical image classification, yet reliably detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs at deployment remains an open problem. No static scoring method works across all shift types: Maximum Concept Matching (MCM) on FLAIR achieves 76.4% AUROC for far-OOD but only 42.4% for covariate shifts such as ultra-wide-field fundus images, effectively random. We trace this to a structural mismatch: covariate-shifted inputs are indistinguishable from in-distribution samples in softmax space, yet occupy distinct regions in the VLM embedding space. To exploit this untapped signal, we propose PROTON (PROtotype-based Test-time ONline OOD detection), a lightweight post-hoc module that maintains an online prototype bank from high-confidence test predictions and adaptively fuses prototype distance with MCM scoring via stream-level variance statistics, requiring no model modification, training data, or prompt engineering. On the ophthalmology benchmark FLAIR + FIVES, PROTON improves MCM by +23.9 AUROC on covariate shift, +8.8 on semantic shift, and +8.1 on far-OOD, making it the only zero-shot method to improve all three without hierarchical prompts or labeled data. Code is available at https://github.com/GenMI-Lab/PROTON, and the project page is available at https://genmi-lab.github.io/PROTON.

We introduce MM++ (Multilayer Mahalanobis++), a strictly post-hoc, and scale-invariant framework for Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection. To address the trade-off between scale invariance and hierarchical expressivity, MM++ constructs a principled joint feature space. It first identifies discriminative intermediate layers by measuring entropy density drops, which mark the boundaries of sharp semantic compression. By fusing these selected layers with the terminal representation, the framework captures latent cross-layer correlations while mitigating early-layer noise. Crucially, a Ledoit-Wolf regularized tied covariance matrix stabilizes this unified space, enabling reliable distance estimation. Requiring no auxiliary OOD data, classifier fine-tuning, or architectural modifications, MM++ delivers robust performance across distinct architectures for both near- and far-OOD detection.

Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable performance across medical imaging tasks, yet their tendency to overgeneralize under distributional shifts poses a major obstacle to safe clinical deployment. Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection methods aim to mitigate this risk, but most existing approaches rely on opaque internal signals with poorly understood semantic meaning, limiting trust in safety-critical settings. In this work, we propose an interpretable OOD detection framework that probes the stability of model predictions under class-conditioned semantic perturbations. Leveraging sparse autoencoders (SAEs), we learn class-specific concept vectors from in-distribution data that disentangle dense intermediate representations into sparse, semantically meaningful components. At inference, we perturb deeper-layer representations using the concept vectors associated with the model's predicted class and measure the class logits stability. We hypothesize that in-distribution samples exhibit low sensitivity to such perturbations, as their representations align with class-specific semantic directions, whereas OOD samples show amplified deviations due to representational misalignment. By framing OOD detection as a concept conditioned stability analysis, our approach provides both a discriminative OOD signal and an interpretable lens into the internal mechanisms driving model uncertainty, making it particularly suitable for high stakes medical applications.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) frequently fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) medical images because of variations in scanners and acquisition protocols. Retraining DNN models to address these distribution shifts is often impractical due to the high cost of acquiring and annotating new medical datasets. To address this, we introduce VarDeepPCA, a novel lightweight variational DNN framework designed to restore/refine degraded segmentation maps by leveraging intrinsic geometric priors. Unlike existing approaches that require target-domain data or extensive pre-training, our VarDeepPCA explicitly learns a distribution of valid anatomical geometries using only small in-distribution (ID) datasets. Theoretically, our novel variational learning framework leverages a reinterpretation of the softmax mapping to implicitly perform exact distribution modeling, thereby enabling computationally efficient, sampling-free learning and inference. This also enables VarDeepPCA to provide uncertainty estimates associated with its restored segmentation maps. We empirically validate our framework across 4 distinct clinical applications, using 14 publicly available datasets, involving segmentation of the myocardium, neuroretinal rim, prostate, and fetal head. Comparisons against 15 existing methods demonstrate that VarDeepPCA consistently restores segmentation maps produced by the existing methods on OOD data to (i) significantly improve anatomical plausibility of geometries and clinical utility of the segmentations, and (ii) significantly reduce errors, without needing any more training data than that used by existing methods.

Radio-frequency (RF) fingerprinting systems must operate in open-world environments where signals from unknown transmitters and temporal drift introduce distribution shift at test time. Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection provides a natural framework for this problem, yet its application to RF fingerprinting (RFF) remains limited. A key barrier to their adoption is that most OOD detectors require auxiliary OOD data for parameter tuning, an assumption that is difficult to satisfy in RF environments where representative OOD data is impractical to collect. In this work, we introduce a promising set of OOD detection methods from the machine learning literature to open-set RFF domain. We present these methods within a unified mathematical framework based on information theory, which is a natural framework for communication systems. Our framework allows for the systematic analysis of methods and development of new methods. We further demonstrate the applicability of recent work on tuning OOD detectors without given OOD tuning data for open-set RFF. We evaluate on the POWDER RF fingerprinting dataset, showing that detectors tuned without any given OOD data achieve performance comparable to baselines with access to true OOD tuning data and greatly out-perform baseline approaches without access to true OOD tuning data, showcasing the practical viability for the RFF problem.

Machine-learning drug-discovery pipelines increasingly rely on generative models that propose molecules far from the data used to train downstream synthesizability filters. Existing filters (SAScore, SCScore, RAscore, DeepSA) are purely statistical and degrade in exactly this out-of-distribution (OOD) regime. We ask whether cheap, closed-form physical priors, used as auxiliary supervision on a graph neural network (GNN), improve OOD generalization. We add two auxiliary losses to a GINE backbone: a topological complexity regression supervised by the Bertz index, and a strain-energy soft penalty supervised by MMFF94 force-field energy. On a 65,177-molecule corpus (HIV, Tox21, COCONUT) labeled by SAScore thresholds we reproduce a strong in-distribution baseline, then evaluate a 4-way ablation (baseline / +complexity / +strain / +both) on a single-source OOD split (train on drug-like HIV+Tox21, test on COCONUT natural products), repeated over 5 seeds with paired bootstrap confidence intervals. All three physics-aware variants give a small but statistically significant OOD improvement over the baseline (mean OOD AUC 0.9774): +complexity Delta = +0.0060 (95% CI [+0.0023, +0.0102]), +strain Delta = +0.0032 ([+0.0008, +0.0052]), +both Delta = +0.0066 ([+0.0038, +0.0093]); every interval excludes zero, and the combination is best. The variants are indistinguishable in-distribution, so the effect is visible only under OOD evaluation. We are explicit that the effects are modest, and we report a cautionary methodological finding: a single-seed version of this experiment produced a qualitatively different (non-monotone) story that did not survive multi-seed evaluation.

Neural operators approximate mappings between function spaces, but often generalize poorly to other operators and usually require fine-tuning or retraining. In-Context Operator Networks (ICON) addresses this issue by prompting the model with numerical context so that the model learns specific operators from prompts and adapt to different operators without fine-tuning. However, ICON may still fail to generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) operator tasks. Inpired by the success of harness engineering of Large Language models (LLMs), we introduce Chain of Operators (CHOP), a framework that harness a frozen ICON to OOD operator tasks without updating its parameters. Specifically, CHOP constructs a chain of operators consisting of explicit elementary transformations and the frozen ICON. Experiments on a scalar conservation law and a mean-field control problem show that CHOP reduces relative inference error over direct ICON evaluation, while each operator in the chain remains interpretable and in closed form. A chain constructed on one PDE family further generalizes to a different family, indicating shared mechanisms across harness systems.

Multi-channel mixed-SNR training improves out-of-distribution (OOD) generalisation of deep learning channel estimators for IEEE 802.11p vehicular communications, yet the internal mechanism responsible for this remains unexplained. This work presents REACH (Relevance-based Explanation and Architectural Compression for cHannel estimators), a gradient-based interpretability framework that operates at two levels. Input-level attribution identifies a subset of time-frequency features consistently relevant across all evaluated channel conditions, enabling input dimensionality reduction with minimal performance loss. Filter-level attribution reveals a near-universal internal representation, providing a representational account of the observed OOD generalisation. Guided by the resulting filter taxonomy, relevance-guided architecture compression substantially reduces both the number of parameters and the number of floating-point operations (FLOPs) with sub-1 dB normalised mean square error (NMSE) degradation, and OOD generalisation degrades more slowly than within-distribution accuracy under increasing compression.

Flow matching and diffusion models enable conditional generation across domains ranging from images to proteins, with recent extensions to out-of-distribution contexts. Yet generative models of neural time series have largely remained restricted to categorical conditioning, precluding compositional and zero-shot generalization. In this work, we propose a per-timestep conditioned diffusion transformer for generating realistic fMRI brain dynamics during unseen cognitive tasks by injecting both compositional language and optional spatial priors in-context. Such zero-shot generation could enable counterfactual neuroscience by supporting in-silico design and evaluation of novel cognitive experiments before empirical validation. Leveraging this model, we evaluate across hundreds of held-out task conditions and characterize predictive performance in relation to the training manifold. From language alone, the model recovers region-specific recruitment across tasks and held-out spatial activation patterns. Spatial priors, when available, complement the text pathway by anchoring generation in regions of task space where language alone degrades, while retaining the compositional structure needed for counterfactual task specification. To our knowledge this is the first generative model of whole-cortex fMRI dynamics for unseen cognitive tasks, advancing counterfactual neuroscience and data-driven experimental design.

We propose GP-Adapter, a training-free framework that augments CLIP (Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training) with Gaussian Process (GP) uncertainty modeling for few-shot classification and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. While CLIP achieves strong zero-shot recognition, it yields deterministic similarity scores and offers limited uncertainty information, which is critical under distribution shift and data scarcity. GP-Adapter constructs modality-specific, class-wise one-class GPs on top of frozen CLIP embeddings using an RBF kernel for image features and a linear kernel for text prompts and fuses their predictive statistics to produce a variance-aware confidence score for OOD detection. The method requires no fine-tuning of the CLIP backbone and relies only on a small $K$-shot cache and lightweight hyperparameter selection, with memory cost scaling as $O(CK^2)$ for $C$ classes and $K$ shots. Experiments on ImageNet and multiple OOD benchmarks show that GP-Adapter provides competitive few-shot performance and consistently improves OOD detection when combined with prompt-learning baselines, highlighting the complementarity between GP-based uncertainty modeling and prompt learning. Overall, our results suggest that integrating probabilistic inference with large pre-trained vision-language models can improve reliability in low-data and distribution-shifted settings. Code is available at https://github.com/tms-byte/GP-Adapter

Data samples used for training often differ from those encountered during fine-tuning and deployment, and while ML models show promise, their performance remains limited when only small annotated datasets are available. Performance often degrades under distribution shifts caused by diverse sensors, populations, and application settings. Although pre-training helps, models frequently encounter out-of-distribution (OOD) data in real-world settings, leading to reduced robustness. Existing adaptation methods usually assume fixed distribution shifts and struggle when multiple types or severities occur. In particular, they overlook shift severity, for example treating adaptation to a large familiar dataset the same as adaptation to a small dataset with a new task, which limits generalisation. To address this, we propose ADAPTOOD, a novel framework that leverages data uncertainty to quantify distribution shift severity and guide fine-tuning for time series. This uncertainty measures how strongly samples from the target deployment distribution deviate from the pre-training distribution, providing a direct signal of OOD severity. Our framework combines this uncertainty with low-rank model updates and adaptive hyperparameter optimisation to improve adaptation. We show that ADAPTOOD achieves up to 7% higher accuracy and 12.9% higher precision than existing methods in OOD tasks, maintaining strong performance as distribution shift severity increases.

Open-set test-time adaptation (TTA) updates models on new data in the presence of input shifts and unknown output classes. While recent methods have made progress on improving in-distribution (InD) accuracy for known classes, their ability to accurately detect out-of-distribution (OOD) unknown classes remains underexplored. We benchmark robust and open-set TTA methods (SAR, OSTTA, UniEnt, and SoTTA) on the standard corruption benchmarks of CIFAR-10-C at the small scale and ImageNet-C at the large scale. For CIFAR-10-C, we use OOD data from SVHN and CIFAR-100 in their respective corrupted forms of SVHN-C and CIFAR-100-C. For ImageNet-C, we use OOD data from ImageNet-O and Textures in their respective corrupted forms of ImageNet-O-C and Textures-C. ImageNet-O is nearer to ImageNet, as unknown but related object classes (like ''garlic bread'' vs. ''hot dog'' for food, or ''highway'' vs. ''dam'' for infrastructure), while Textures is farther from ImageNet, as non-object patterns (like ''cracked'' mud, ''porous'' sponge, ''veined'' leaves). We evaluate the accuracy and confidence of TTA methods for InD vs. OOD recognition on CIFAR-10-C and ImageNet-C. We verify the accuracy of each method's own OOD detection technique on CIFAR-10-C. We also evaluate on ImageNet-C and report both accuracy and standard OOD detection metrics. We further examine more realistic settings, in which the proportions and rates of OOD data can vary. To explore the trade-off between InD recognition and OOD rejection, we propose a new baseline that replaces softmax/multi-class output with sigmoid/multi-label output. Our analysis shows for the first time that current open-set TTA methods struggle to balance InD and OOD accuracy and that they only imperfectly filter OOD data for their own adaptation updates.

We address the problem of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection for target observations embedded in a subspace of the high dimensional data space. Using continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), we propose a Lagrangian sub-flow (LSF) framework designed to isolate and estimate the density for the relevant components in the representation and using the remaining components as context. Through experimentation with models for speech synthesis, we show that CNFs, similarly to other deep generative models (DGMs), are susceptible to the "likelihood paradox", where high likelihood is erroneously assigned to OOD samples. This is attributed to the inductive bias of DGMs that prioritize low-level structural details over high-level semantic coherence. To mitigate this phenomenon, we propose a number of geometric diagnostic signals based on the velocity field over the sub-flow trajectory. Based on these signals, we design metrics for the challenging task of zero-shot phoneme-level mispronunciation detection. Finally, we demonstrate the superiority of these metrics compared to likelihood-based methods on a real-world mispronunciation detection benchmark.

We study quantile regression in an extrapolation regime where the covariate takes unusually large values. Under regular variation assumptions, extreme observations can be effectively characterized through their angular components, enabling learning strategies that focus on the angle of the most extreme observations. This approach is formalized through the minimization of an asymptotic conditional risk that localizes learning in the tail of the covariate distribution. We propose a novel Support Vector Machine (SVM) framework for extreme quantile regression, leveraging reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces to handle high-dimensional and nonlinear settings. Our method also accommodates unbounded response variables and avoids restrictive transformations. We establish finite-sample learning guarantees under mild regularity assumptions. The proposed framework unifies ideas from statistical learning and multivariate extremes, providing a tractable and theoretically grounded approach to extrapolation. We complement our theoretical findings with an empirical study on river flow data from the Danube, demonstrating the practical relevance of our methods.

Supervised Causal Learning (SCL) has shown promise in causal discovery by framing it as a supervised learning problem. However, it suffers from significant out-of-distribution generalization challenges. We reveal three limitations of previous SCL practices: a significant performance gap between synthetic benchmarks and real-world data, fragility to distribution shifts, and failure in compositional generalization, collectively questioning its real-world applicability. To address this, we propose Test-Time Training for Supervised Causal Learning (TTT-SCL), a novel framework that dynamically generates training sets explicitly aligned with any specific test instance. We demonstrate the correlation between TTT-SCL and score-based methods, and design an efficient module for generating training sets based on the classic scoring function. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks, pseudo-real and real-world datasets demonstrate that TTT-SCL significantly outperforms existing SCL and traditional causal discovery methods.

Reliable semantic segmentation for mobile robots requires both accurate dense prediction and robust uncertainty estimation under distribution shift. Strong uncertainty baselines such as Monte Carlo Dropout often require repeated stochastic forward passes and are difficult to deploy on edge platforms. We propose Energy-Aware NECO, a single-pass pixel-wise out-of-distribution (OOD) detector for semantic segmentation. The method combines a centered NECO-style geometric ratio computed from decoder features with a logit-based Energy score. Both components are standardized using statistics fitted on a pure in-distribution validation split and fused through a convex combination. We evaluate the method on the miniMUAD subset using true pixel-level OOD labels. The proposed hybrid score achieves an AUROC of 0.8539, outperforming NECO-only (0.8280), Energy-only (0.8171), and an ensemble predictive-entropy baseline (0.8124). Additional qualitative and operating-point analyses show that the hybrid detector improves overall ranking performance while preserving the efficiency advantages of a single-pass design. Code is available at https://github.com/boyuan-zhangx/Energy-Aware_NECO

Scaling laws guide large language model training by relating compute to cross-entropy loss, and recent work further extends them to predict downstream benchmark performance. However, prior approaches face generalization limitations from two aspects: focusing on benchmark-level performance introduces scenario-specific artifacts, while relying on IID validation loss fails to track capability improvements when training distributions vary. In this work, we argue that downstream scaling should be studied at the capability level, which captures shared skill factors across related tasks while abstracting away benchmark-specific noise. We propose SuperValid, a framework that synthesizes OOD (out-of-distribution), capability-aligned validation data by distilling core concepts from benchmarks within a capability domain and expanding them into diverse, knowledge-rich texts. Extensive experiments spanning 16 benchmarks grouped into 6 capability domains show that SuperValid loss exhibits strong and stable correlation with downstream performance across models of different architectures, scales, and training data distributions. As a training-free metric computable during training without benchmark evaluation, SuperValid enables effective model selection, early stopping, and scaling decisions.

In strategic classification, an institution (e.g., a bank) anticipates adaptation from users who change their features to increase utility in a classification task (e.g., loan repayment). Since a key challenge is the distribution shift induced by users, we turn to causal models, which have been shown to bound the worst-case out-of-distribution (OOD) risk, and establish several new results that link causality and strategic classification. First, we show that causal classification leads to optimal classification error after any sufficiently large adaptation, when the noise is bounded in a certain way. Second, when these assumptions do not hold, we show OOD cross-entropy risk of optimal classifiers decomposes into an OOD bias term and a term arising from not using all observable features, allowing us to understand when causal classifiers have an advantage. Finally, we show that the use of causal features can allow alignment of long-term incentives between institutions and users, contrasting with previous work that highlights social costs of such approaches. We validate our theory empirically on synthetic data, finding that our results predict behavior in practice.

Predictive models trained on observational data often fail to generalise to the distributions they encounter when deployed, especially when the training data is a product of the system being optimised. Recommender systems are a canonical example: they are trained on interaction logs confounded by the deployed policy, past user behaviour, and platform filtering. As a result, the training distribution differs substantially from the candidate distribution scored at serving time, a gap that makes offline metrics unreliable predictors of online performance. We address the distribution shift problem with a method motivated by causal representation learning (CRL). We propose an information-theoretic disentanglement criterion and prove that its optimum depends only on the causal components of the input. We then derive a tractable variational lower bound that makes the criterion optimisable from finite observational data alone. The scope of our method is narrower than that of much of the CRL literature, in that we target better generalisation under distribution shift, not full identification of all latent causal factors. This narrower target is what makes the method practical, requiring only the existing confounded logs, applying to any standard supervised model, and adding no inference-time cost. Our headline evaluation is an A/B test with millions of users on Spotify, applied to a production ranker for personalised playlist generation. A capacity-matched CRL variant performed on par offline but delivered substantial online gains in listener engagement. Complementary evidence on the public KuaiRand recommendation dataset and a synthetic benchmark with known causal structure shows the same pattern: offline parity with baseline, gains under distribution shift. Across all three settings, adding our causal disentanglement objective yields meaningfully better out-of-distribution generalisation.

This paper addresses structured out-of-distribution (OOD) testing in high-stakes machine learning applications. Traditional conformal methods rely on joint exchangeability, making it difficult to incorporate auxiliary information such as spatiotemporal or grouping structures. To overcome this limitation, we propose the structure-adaptive conformal q-value (SCQ), a significance index that integrates individual test evidence with structural patterns. We also develop pseudo-score-guided transductive automated model selection (P-TAMS), which adapts conformalized model selection to structured OOD testing across a toolbox of candidate models. Together, SCQ and P-TAMS form a unified framework under pairwise exchangeability, providing finite-sample error-rate control, improved power, and enhanced interpretability. Experiments on simulated and real data demonstrate that the proposed approach controls the false discovery rate and performs well across diverse settings.

While Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) excel at predictive tasks on satellite imagery, their performance can arise from visual correlations rather than underlying structural invariants, making even perception-based out-of-distribution accuracy a poor proxy for scientific utility. As a result, models may look correct without reasoning correctly, a discrepancy we term the Perception-Physics Paradox. To address this gap, we introduce scientific alignment as an implicit objective for representation learning in scientific domains. We study a principled, testable aspect of scientific alignment through structural isomorphism, which requires latent representations to uniquely identify physical systems up to a linear reparameterization. This perspective induces a hierarchy of necessary conditions and yields a systematic probing protocol for physical and causal interpretability. To operationalize this framework, we release TC-Bench, a global, reproducible benchmark dataset with an automated construction pipeline for tropical cyclone research, and show that current VFMs rely on visual shortcuts that collapse in intense regimes, indicating that scientific alignment does not arise as a natural byproduct of scaling alone.

We study sequential decision-making with offline reinforcement learning (RL). Traditional offline RL policies may result in out-of-distribution (OOD) actions when training relies only on sparse offline representations. To ensure safe offline policies in a sparse state-action space, we explore how density estimation models can be integrated into model-based RL methods to avoid the OOD regions. Generative models are capable of explicitly modeling the density in sparse state-action spaces. Building on this, we introduce Generative OOD-regularized Model-based Policy Optimization (GORMPO), a density-regularized offline RL algorithm that uses generative density modeling to restrict policy updates to high-density areas of the dataset. Furthermore, we examine whether better OOD detection corresponds to better model-based offline policies. We compare (1) the OOD detection capabilities of various density estimators and (2) their performance within the GORMPO framework on a real-world medical dataset and sparse offline RL datasets. We theoretically guarantee GORMPO's performance under mild assumptions. Empirically, GORMPO outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by 17% on a real-world medical dataset and enhances the base model on the offline RL datasets. Our empirical findings show that better OOD detection generally results in improved policies in environments with stable dynamics, while conservative penalties with poor density estimation are favored when dynamics are uncertain.

Real-world time-series data in industrial sensing, healthcare, and energy systems is often corrupted by a mixture of Gaussian noise and occasional large-magnitude impulse outliers. For tasks that depend on local shape, such as ECG morphology analysis and battery degradation monitoring, the main requirement is not only low reconstruction error but also preservation of derivative peaks and task-critical features. We propose Cascade-KDE, a training-free restoration framework for corrupted time series. The method first estimates a two-dimensional temporal-amplitude density, then applies a Density-Truncated Robust Expectation to limit the influence of distant abnormal points, and finally refines the sequence through an exponential cascade with adaptive stopping. This design aims to improve robustness under out-of-distribution impulse corruptions while keeping the restored trajectory close to the original local structure. Across several benchmark datasets, the proposed method shows consistent gains over classical filters and representative learning-based baselines on curve fidelity, derivative preservation, downstream classification, and runtime efficiency. These results suggest that bounded density-based restoration is a practical option for feature-preserving preprocessing in noisy time-series pipelines.

Deep generative models offer a natural foundation for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection, yet prior work has shown that their assigned likelihoods are notoriously unreliable indicators for in- vs out-of-distribution data. In this paper, we address this problem by leveraging the diffeomorphic and mass-preserving properties of continuous normalising flows. Our analysis shows that OOD samples are mapped to noise samples that are highly atypical under the noise prior in ways not captured by the likelihood. Based on this observation, we propose a new method -- Signal in the Noise (SITN) -- for OOD detection on the single-sample level. SITN requires no access to OOD data, incurs minimal computational overhead, and provides strict control of false positive rates. Comprehensive evaluations through standard benchmarks and synthetic perturbations highlight the method's effectiveness and the absence of the complexity bias inherent to likelihood-based methods.

Climate emulation is an out-of-distribution (OOD) projection task. This is precisely the challenge where modern Machine Learning (ML) methods are most prone to failure. Consequently, while current ML emulators trained on present climate achieve high in-distribution performance, their future reliability under the inevitable distribution shifts of a changing climate remains a critical, poorly understood blind spot. Addressing this challenge requires a fundamental shift in how we understand, evaluate, and design climate emulators. In this work, we first confirm that climate change drives a statistically significant and progressively growing shift in atmospheric state distributions, rendering standard evaluation protocols insufficient. We empirically establish that seasonal variation serves as an effective proxy for these long-term climate shifts, providing access to $\textit{real-world}$ distribution shifts without recourse to heuristics like synthetic perturbations. Motivated by this link, we introduce a novel evaluation framework that leverages seasonal shifts as a rigorous, zero-overhead testbed for emulator robustness. Our systematic characterisation confirms that current state-of-the-art hybrid-ML emulators degrade significantly under these realistic shifts. Finally, we chart a path forward by identifying compositional generalisation, the ability to form novel combinations from observed elementary components, as a principled route towards robust climate emulation. We demonstrate that physically motivated decompositions substantially improve OOD performance with only modest trade-offs against in-distribution performance, providing an avenue towards ML-driven climate emulators robust to an unknown future.

Many safety and alignment failures of large language models (LLMs) occur due to out-of-distribution (OOD) situations: unusual prompt or response patterns that are unforeseen by model developers. We systematically study whether LLM monitoring pipelines can detect these OOD alignment failures by introducing a benchmark called Misalignment Out Of Distribution (MOOD). It is difficult to find failures that are truly OOD for off-the-shelf models trained on vast safety datasets. We sidestep this by including a restricted training set in MOOD that we use to train our own monitors, as well as seven test sets with diverse alignment failures that are outside the training distribution. Using MOOD, we find that guard models (safety classifiers) often fail to generalize OOD. To fix this, we propose combining guard models with OOD detectors. We test four types of OOD detectors and find that a combination of a guard model with Mahalanobis distance and perplexity-based OOD detectors can improve recall from 39% to 45%. We also establish positive scaling trends across model scales for monitors that combine a guard model and OOD detector; we find that incorporating OOD detection into monitoring achieves a higher recall gain than using a guard model with 20 times more parameters. Our work suggests that OOD detection should be a crucial component of LLM monitoring and provides a foundation for further work on this important problem. We release the code and data for our experiments publicly, and you can find the relevant links here: https://github.com/Dylan102938/mood-bench.