Power Systems

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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 122% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 149

Aug 10, 2026cs.AI

GENCO - A Unified Neural Solver Embedded in a Development Framework for Steady-State Grid Analysis

Foundation models are transforming business workflows and boosting productivity, yet they remain largely absent from engineering domains such as power system analysis, where strict physical consistency must be enforced. We present GENCO (GEometric Neural Corrective Optimizer), a unified neural solver for steady-state transmission grid analysis that handles power flow (PF), optimal power flow (OPF), and state estimation (SE) within a single architecture and shared network representation. To support advances in neural power system solvers, we introduce the open-source GridFM Development Framework, which standardizes synthetic data generation and training in a low-code environment. We also release large-scale datasets with millions of PF and OPF scenarios across diverse grid topologies to support reproducible benchmarking. We evaluate GENCO on the PFDelta and OPFData benchmarks against state-of-the-art neural solvers and classical solvers, including Newton-Raphson and IPOPT, as well as on real-world Hydro-Québec SCADA data. For large-scale PF, GENCO recovers the full AC operating state, including voltage magnitudes and reactive power that DC-PF cannot provide, while matching DC-PF-level active power-balance residuals. It achieves up to 30x speedups over Newton-Raphson at only 2x the runtime of DC-PF. For OPF, it achieves up to 85x speedups over IPOPT while improving feasibility, optimality, and runtime over DC-OPF. For SE, GENCO is more robust than classical weighted least squares to noisy measurements and network parameter errors, and always returns a high-quality estimate even when weighted least squares fails to converge. Together, the unified architecture and development framework provide a new approach to large-scale steady-state grid analysis, lowering the barrier to entry for power system engineers and marking a step toward Grid Foundation Models.

Alban Puech, Matteo Mazzonelli, Tamara R. Govindasamy +19

IBM Research · Reliability and Risk Engineering Laboratory, ETH Zurich, Switzerland · Hydro-Qu´ebec Research Institute, Canada +3

Neural Surrogate Modeling Optimal Power Flow Power Systems

Aug 8, 2026cs.CE

Tools to Explain Neural Networks for Power System Dynamics

This paper presents, for the first time in power systems literature to our knowledge, analytical tools to explain the training performance of machine learning surrogate models for power system dynamics. Power system simulations are increasingly challenged by stiff and multi-timescale dynamics arising from converter-interfaced resources and fast control loops. Machine learning surrogates emerge as promising tools to handle this complexity and accelerate dynamic simulations. However, their performance remains difficult to interpret, which limits their adoption. Building on the small-signal eigenvalue analysis in power systems, this paper uses the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) method. NTK delivers a modal interpretation of the learning performance, identifying error modes that decay rapidly versus others that converge slowly. This connection explains how physical stiffness and timescale separation in power system dynamic models appear as optimization stiffness during Neural Network (NN) training. Based on this analysis, we develop adaptive loss-weighting strategies to improve and explain why structure-aware neural architectures, such as ActNet, perform better than vanilla NNs. We assess the proposed approach on physics-informed machine learning surrogate models of \acp{SM} and power electronic converters. The methods introduced in this paper can deliver the necessary analytical tools to interpret and improve the performance of machine learning surrogates, paving the way for the systematic, physics-aware design of NN architectures and training strategies. By moving beyond trial-and-error development, these tools reveal training dynamics and failure modes, support more reliable design decisions, and strengthen confidence in machine-learning surrogates for engineering applications.

Petros Ellinas, Johanna Vorwerk, Spyros Chatzivasileiadis

Department of Wind and Energy Systems, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark

Neural Surrogate Modeling Neural Network Interpretability Adaptive Loss Weighting Neural Network Training Dynamics Power Systems

Aug 4, 2026cs.LG

Operationally Feasible Synthetic Power-Grid Scenarios via Learning the AC-Operable Joint Distribution

Synthetic power-grid scenarios are essential for planning, resilience assessment, contingency analysis, and data-driven power-system applications. Recent synthetic grid generation methods have improved structural realism and operational feasibility by incorporating engineering knowledge through post-generation validation, optimization, or physics-aware generation. However, generated scenarios may still exhibit low AC feasibility and robustness, limiting their practical value for downstream power-system studies. This paper proposes a feasibility-aware distribution-learning framework that learns the AC-operable joint distribution of network topology, branch electrical parameters, and time-varying load profiles. Instead of enforcing feasibility after generation, the proposed framework incorporates AC power-flow convergence and operational constraints into hierarchical diffusion-based distribution learning. This enables the generator itself to produce operationally feasible grid scenarios through efficient diffusion sampling. The hierarchical architecture decomposes the high-dimensional generation task into three engineering-motivated stages: topology and bus-attribute generation, branch-parameter generation conditioned on the generated structure, and load-profile generation conditioned on both network structure and electrical characteristics. Experiments on benchmark systems demonstrate that the proposed framework significantly improves operational feasibility and contingency robustness while maintaining strong statistical fidelity and eliminating optimization-based post-processing.

Chenhan Xiao, Xinyu He, Haoran Li +2

School of Electrical, Computer and Energy Engineering at Arizona State University, USA

Constrained Generative Modeling Synthetic Data Generation Diffusion Models Power Systems

Aug 3, 2026cs.LG

A Physics-Informed Hybrid Neural Operator for Transient Magnetization Prediction in Power Magnetics

Magnetic components in high-frequency, high-power-density converters are increasingly driven by non-sinusoidal flux-density waveforms with fast transitions, minor-loop operation, dc bias, and temperature variation. Under these conditions, steady-state core-loss formulas and single-valued material curves cannot fully capture transient magnetization responses. This work proposes the Physics-Informed Hybrid Neural Operator (PI-HNO), a compact material-specific neural model with B-H energy-consistency regularization for core-loss-oriented transient magnetization prediction. Given the measured B(t)-H(t) history, the input B(t) series over the prediction interval and operating-condition information, PI-HNO predicts the H(t) series and the corresponding reconstructed B-H trajectory. The model integrates a local recurrent branch for boundary-state representation and rate-dependent response evolution with a Preisach-inspired global branch that extracts waveform-level hysteresis context. Evaluation on the MagNetX transient database using material-specific models for 14 ferrite materials demonstrates that PI-HNO achieves a compact trade-off between sequence accuracy and B(t)-H(t) energy consistency, with the mean and 95th percentile B(t)-H(t) energy consistency errors of 1.92% and 7.60%, respectively, using only 4777 trainable parameters per model. Ablation studies further demonstrate that the local, global, and energy-aware regularized components provide distinct contributions to transient magnetization prediction.

Yachao Zhu, Qiujie Huang, Sinan Li +3

School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, the University of Sydney, Darlington, NSW, 2008, Australia · National Railway Research and Design Institute of Signal and Communication, Beijing 100070, China

Materials Property Prediction Physics-Informed Neural Operators Power Systems

Aug 3, 2026cs.RO

DeRP: An Algorithm for Self-Assembly of Power-Delivery Networks using Recursive Branching in Information-Limited Environments

Delivering sustained power to distributed equipment in unstructured field environments using pre-planned wired networks or battery-based solutions presents significant infrastructure and logistics challenges. This paper presents Dendritic Recursive Pivoting (DeRP), a decentralized framework for multi-target network formation in robot swarms based solely on local communication and bearing-based sensing toward sinks. We envision a system in which robots, acting as a conduit, self-assemble a power network from a common source, forming branches at locally selected pivot points that approximate the Steiner points of Steiner trees to efficiently route to multiple Sinks. This branching operation is performed recursively to enable scalable and adaptive network formation without global planning. The proposed method is evaluated in terms of the total network length and estimated power loss, and is quantitatively compared against global baselines such as the Minimum Spanning Tree and Steiner tree solutions (GeoSteiner), which require complete knowledge of Sink locations. Specifically, we found that the networks formed by DeRP asymptotically form approximately 125% of the global minimum length while reducing power losses to 65% relative to Euclidean Steiner trees. In addition, we empirically characterize scaling behavior by measuring simulation completion time as the number of Sinks and robots increases, and find that this scaling was sub-linear for up to 100 sinks. The proposed approach enables resilient, adaptive power delivery in environments where deployment of traditional infrastructure is challenging.

Mohammadali Rashidioun, Sangwoo Park, Petras Swissler

department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Newark, NJ 07102, USA

Multi-Robot Systems Swarm Robotics Combinatorial Optimization Power Systems

Aug 3, 2026eess.SY

Bridging Artificial Intelligence and Power Systems Education Using a Hands-On Executable Framework

Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly central to power and energy systems, supporting modeling, forecasting, optimization, and control. Yet most existing works emphasize specialized applications and offer little reusable material for newcomers or interdisciplinary learners, who increasingly rely on large language models rather than building their own. This gap points to a need for engineering-grounded AI (EGAI), in which AI workflows follow established engineering and power-system domain rules rather than acting as task-agnostic black boxes. Motivated by a community survey of researchers and practitioners, which shows 92% report at least one barrier before running an AI model and 94% want a power-specific hands-on course. This paper presents a framework consisting of open, executable module library that lowers the entry barrier for AI in power systems. The modules follow a progressive difficulty ladder that maps core AI concepts onto representative power-system tasks: (i) foundational deep neural network (DNN) templates for function approximation and load-curve fitting; (ii) a domain-coupled convolutional neural network (CNN) power-flow surrogate for a 5-bus system; and (iii) frontier modules on DNN-assisted optimization, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) for battery storage control, and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for the swing equation. All modules are released as Jupyter notebooks that run locally or on Google Colab and are delivered through an IEEE online course and IEEE Power & Energy Society (PES) webinar series. The webinar drew more than 590 live attendees, which is among the ten most-attended IEEE PES webinars, and over 344 repository visits within two weeks, reinforcing the survey-based motivation.

Junjie Yin, Buxin She, Xinyu Feng +2

Fran · EECS Department and the CURENT research center at The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 · ECE Department at Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506

AI in Education Power Systems

Aug 3, 2026cs.LG

An AI-Based Decision-Support Pipeline for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Forecasting

Reliable photovoltaic (PV) forecasts can support low-carbon energy systems, but deployed sites may have only short and incomplete records. Physical and hybrid methods can be sensitive to weather inputs, calibration, and timestamp-alignment, while individual machine learning models may capture different parts of the forecasting problem. We study hourly day-ahead PV forecasting at a United Kingdom charging station using one year of inverter measurements, with 9.25% of hours missing. The pipeline checks timestamp-alignment, derives solar and clearness features, adds short-term weather context, and combines five complementary models using non-negative least squares stacking, with the combination fitted only on validation observations. We compare against smart persistence, a weather-scaled baseline that carries the previous day's PV behaviour forward using target-day irradiance. With retrospective weather, the combined model reduces daylight normalised root mean square error (RMSE) by 31.2% under random day-fold evaluation and by 2.9% under rolling-origin evaluation, although the latter improvement is not robust across days. It also improves by 3.0% over the single model selected from validation performance. Replacing retrospective weather with a public product sampled at a constant 24-hour lead increases daylight RMSE by 13.1% and 4.2% under the two protocols, while retaining positive skill over smart persistence.

Fariba Dehghan, Sebastian Stein, Vahid Yazdanpanah +2

University of Southampton

Ensemble Learning Time Series Forecasting Solar Power Forecasting Power Systems

Aug 1, 2026cs.AI

HetGPS: Scalable Graph Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Physics-Anchored Adaptive Safety for EV Charging

Safety interventions for large populations of network-coupled agents must protect shared constraints without unnecessarily overriding task-oriented policy decisions. We present HetGPS, a hybrid graph-control framework synergizing learned graph risk with physics-anchored correction by separating intervention magnitude from corrective direction. An action-conditioned graph residual model schedules state-dependent intervention authority, while a physics model determines its direction. For electric vehicle (EV) charging, we couple this filter with a parameter-shared heterogeneous graph soft actor-critic policy, enabling topology-aware coordination with a learned model size independent of fleet size. Across five nested distribution networks with 200--3,218 EVs and 100 evaluation days, Adaptive Authority reduces bus--step voltage violations from 3.93--7.74% without filtering to 0.52--3.44%, while maintaining 99.06--100% departure success. Relative to the same physics-directed projection with fixed authority, it improves mean reward on all five networks and lowers the mean safety score on four. The deployed policy-and-risk model contains 383,702 learned parameters at every scale; at 3,218 EVs, a matched centralized SAC actor is about

170\times

larger. A policy trained on the eight-transformer system transfers zero-shot to the 16- and 32-transformer systems, attaining 0.57--0.75% violation rates and at least 99.99% departure success. These results show that learned graph risk can allocate intervention authority at scale while feeder physics anchors corrective action.

Xiangwei Wang, Nanduni Nimalsiri, Yu Xia +2

The University of Melbourne, Australia · CSIRO, Australia · Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China

Electric Vehicle Charging Safe RL Cooperative MARL Power Systems

Jul 31, 2026cs.LG

Assessing the Generalization of Graph Neural Networks for Fault Location Across Increasing Distributed Energy Resource Penetration Levels

Accurate fault location is critical for distribution network reliability. However, increasing distributed energy resource (DER) penetration complicates fault location due to intermittent generation and bidirectional power flows that reshape fault signatures. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have shown promise by jointly modeling spatial and temporal dependencies, but their behavior under increasing DER penetration has not been studied rigorously. In this paper, we (i) systematically benchmark spatio-temporal graph attention network (STGATv2) against purely temporal (gated recurrent unit, GRU), purely spatial (GATv2) and traditional machine learning baselines, and (ii) evaluate how well models generalize across increasing DER penetration levels (10%, 25%, 50%) on a reconfigured IEEE 123-bus feeder with multiple DER injection points and moderate-to-high impedance faults. Results show that STGATv2 consistently outperforms neural baselines, achieving 92-94% macro F1 in-distribution. Notably, generalization across penetration levels is asymmetric: training at 50% penetration retains near in-distribution F1 score at lower levels, whereas training at 10% degrades considerably at 50% - with STGATv2 retaining 81-84% F1 under these drastic shifts, substantially higher than GATv2 and GRU which drop to 69-74% F1 and 73-75% F1 respectively. Under realistic measurement noise, STGATv2 maintains > 85% F1, while GRU drops as low as 33.5% F1, highlighting the critical role of topological awareness for robust fault location in active distribution networks.

Burak Karabulut, Olayiwola Arowolo, Carlo Manna +2

Dept. of Information Technology, IDLab Ghent University – imec, Ghent, Belgium · Water and Energy Transition Unit VITO, Mol, Belgium · Dept. Electrical Sustainable Energy TU Delft, Delft, Netherlands

OOD Generalization Fault Localization Spatiotemporal GNNs Fault Diagnosis Power Systems

Jul 30, 2026cs.LG

Event-Structured Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Differentiable Critical Clearing Boundaries

Transient-stability assessment determines whether a power system can recover after a disturbance and is therefore essential to preventing generator trips and cascading outages. A key metric is the critical clearing time (CCT), which specifies the maximum time available to clear a fault before synchronism is lost. Reliable CCT estimation is challenging because complicated fault-clearing dynamics require repeated simulations over many fault severities and clearing times. We propose an event-structured physics-informed neural network (ES-PINN) that aligns its representation with the pre-fault, fault-on, and post-clearing swing dynamics and enforces exact state chaining across event interfaces. A smooth trajectory-induced stability margin defines a differentiable approximation of the CCT boundary, enabling accurate boundary extraction, local sensitivity analysis, and optional direct CCT prediction through a distilled readout. We further prove a local residual-to-trajectory-to-CCT error estimate, in which exact event chaining eliminates separate state-interface defect terms. Experiments on IEEE 9-, 14-, and 30-bus systems show that ES-PINN consistently improves held-out trajectory and stability-boundary accuracy over matched neural-surrogate baselines across mechanical and electrical contingencies with multiple clearing configurations. Additional full-network DAE validation, multi-fault experiments, and runtime analyses further demonstrate the effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed framework.

Baoli Hao, Chenxi Hu, Ming Zhong +1

Department of Applied Mathematics, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616, USA · Department of Computer Science, The Hang Seng University of Hong Kong, Sha Tin, Hong Kong · Department of Mathematics, University of Houston, Houston TX 77204, USA +1

Neural Surrogate Modeling Physics-Informed ML Power Systems

Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

PowerAtlas: Towards Electricity-Computing Co-Scheduling for Power Systems

The rapid growth of AI workloads is turning data centers into large-scale, volatile, yet spatiotemporally flexible grid loads, creating an urgent need for coordinated electricity-computing scheduling. Under stringent grid constraints, schedules from general-purpose large language models (LLMs) are often infeasible, causing line-flow violations and unserved load. We present PowerAtlas, an LLM-agent framework for electricity-computing co-scheduling that integrates historical instances, domain knowledge, and physical constraints to produce joint decisions satisfying both grid operational rules and the service-level agreements (SLAs) of computing tasks. Working with a provincial power utility in China, we built an experimental electricity-computing network and validated the decision loop on real data-center data; from de-identified operational data we further constructed ECBench, a benchmark of 2,000 scheduling instances with oracle-optimal solutions. Experiments across eleven LLMs demonstrate the effectiveness of PowerAtlas under realistic physical operating conditions, with consistent feasibility and cost gains across three open-weight backbones. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/JAVA-Jiang/PowerAtlas.

Kaiwen Jiang, Siya Xu, Ziyue Zhu +3

State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications · Information and Communication Branch, State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co., Ltd. · College of Computing and Data Science, Nanyang Technological University

LLM Agents Power Systems

Jul 24, 2026cs.LG

FMOPF: Latent Flow Matching with Constraint-Aware Interaction Priors for AC Optimal Power Flow

AC optimal power flow determines the minimum-cost generation dispatch under nonlinear power balance constraints and is solved thousands of times daily in electricity market operations. Learning a direct mapping from load conditions to OPF solutions can accelerate this computation, yet with deepening renewable penetration, a single optimal dispatch is no longer sufficient. Operators require a characterization of the distribution of feasible near-optimal solutions for risk quantification, sensitivity analysis, and multi-objective trade-off assessment. Supervised neural networks provide fast point predictions but cannot capture this conditional distribution. Diffusion-based generative models can sample diverse solutions in principle, yet existing methods operating in the raw state space exhibit degraded solution quality and fail to scale beyond medium-sized systems. We identify the root cause as the conflation of two distinct tasks within a single model. Compressing the high-dimensional OPF solution manifold is one task, and learning the conditional mapping from loads to that manifold is another. This paper presents FMOPF, a framework that resolves this conflation by decoupling compression from generation through latent flow matching and by explicitly modeling load-state coupling through a Constraint-Aware Interaction Prior Network. Experiments on four IEEE test systems demonstrate that FMOPF provides the most effective Newton-Raphson warm starts, achieves the lowest tail risk among generative methods, and is the first such method to scale to systems with several hundred buses while preserving full feasibility. Ablation studies confirm that the latent generation pipeline is a necessary condition for physical feasibility and that the interaction prior functions as a late-stage tail-risk controller.

Zhilin Huang

China Southern Power Dispatching and Control Center, China Southern Power Grid

Constrained Generative Modeling Flow Matching Uncertainty Quantification Optimal Power Flow Constrained Optimization Power Systems

Jul 23, 2026cs.SD

Spectrogram-Based Joint Detection, Localization, and Classification of Events in Continuously Recorded IBR Waveforms

Continuously recorded high-resolution waveform measurements provide rich information about fast power system dynamics. However, they require automated methods to identify events. This problem is addressed by developing a spectrogram-based framework to jointly detect, localize, and classify events in real-world continuously recorded waveforms at the terminal of an Inverter-Based Resource. We recast this problem as a temporal object detection problem on spectrogram images, as they capture the transient and harmonic signatures more explicitly than in raw waveform data. Each time-series waveform is transformed using the short-time Fourier transform, and the resulting per-channel spectrograms are stacked as a tensor for event detection. We benchmark this method against a detector operating directly on raw time-series measurements. Experiments on single-phase disturbances and three-phase faults demonstrate that the proposed spectrogram method consistently improves event detection, localization, and classification over the raw waveform baseline.

Shivanshu Tripathi, Maziar Raissi, Hamed Mohsenian-Rad

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, Riverside · Department of Mathematics, University of California, Riverside

Jul 22, 2026stat.ML

SPECTRA: State-Space Exogenous Context and Temporal-Frequency Resolution Architecture for Probabilistic Energy Forecasting

Modern power systems increasingly require probabilistic forecasts amid interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, flexible demand, market volatility, and weather-dependent generation. However, existing methods often treat multi-scale decomposition, exogenous-variable alignment, and probabilistic output as separate steps, obscuring how predictable structures and uncertainty-bearing fluctuations jointly shape the forecast distribution. This paper proposes a state-space exogenous-context and temporal-frequency resolution architecture for general probabilistic energy forecasting. Its central premise is that trend-periodic components primarily determine the baseline trajectory, whereas high-frequency residuals and external perturbations govern the spread and asymmetry of forecast uncertainty. Accordingly, the architecture adaptively separates deterministic and residual streams, aligns exogenous context with both, refines the deterministic backbone through multi-resolution spectral-temporal state-space modeling, and estimates ordered quantile boundaries from their complementary representations. Experiments on load, price, solar, and wind forecasting achieve the best continuous ranked probability score in 14 of 18 settings, reducing average CRPS by 5.74% and upper-tail quantile risk by 7.27% over the strongest baselines. These results support deterministic-stochastic separation as an effective design principle for general probabilistic energy forecasting.

Hang Ye, Xinyan Jiang, Yuedong Shi +5

Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China · School of Physical Science and Technology, Shanghaitech University, Shanghai 201210, China +2

Probabilistic Forecasting Electricity Load Forecasting Multiscale Time-Series Modeling Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting State Space Models Power Systems

Jul 22, 2026stat.AP

Domain-Adapted Power Curve for Cross-Farm Applications

The wind energy industry relies on accurate power curve models to make power forecast, evaluate turbine performance, quantify upgrade, or support site-planning decisions. In this paper, we focus on site-planning power curves, i.e., we investigate how power curve models trained using turbine data on an operating wind farm can be transferred to a new, undeveloped farm. The traditional wisdom in the wind energy literature relies on distance, layout, or terrain characteristics for making cross-farm power curve transfer. Through the lens of domain adaptation, we propose a more reliable transfer learning approach for cross-farm power curve modeling. In the cross-farm applications, a domain is specified by the temporal environmental variates and spatial terrain variables. Domain adaptation is to find a capable similarity metric to adapt the domain on the new farm to that on the existing farm. Empirical results show that our domain adapted power curve consistently outperforms competing approaches by an appreciable margin for site-planning power predictions.

Ahmadreza Chokhachian, V. Roshan Joseph, Yu Ding

H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology

Domain Adaptation Cross-Domain Transfer Learning Power Systems

Jul 20, 2026eess.SY

LLMs and Agentic AI Systems for Smart Grids: A Tutorial on Architectures and Applications

Large language models (LLMs) and agentic AI systems have evolved from natural language tasks to using external tools to plan, retrieve, and act in technical domains. In smart grids, recent work applies agentic schemes to forecasting, optimization, and control, wrapping trusted solvers behind language interfaces and orchestrating multi-step workflows. The literature lacks a unified approach to designing and evaluating such systems. LLMs can produce numerically plausible yet physically infeasible outputs, evaluation protocols vary across tasks, and the boundary between what the model should and should not compute is implicit. This paper presents a solver-grounded design principle: a numerical result is reported only when it originates from a trusted tool and passes explicit verification. We review the building blocks of LLM and agentic AI systems for power systems: prompting strategies and agentic architectures. We instantiate the principle in four case studies: wind power forecasting, EV charging scheduling, power flow analysis, and contingency diagnosis, each comparing an LLM-only baseline against its solver-grounded counterpart on identical data and metrics. EVAgent reproduces the CVXPY optimum while reducing LLM-only unmet energy by 7.5-9.5x, and GridDebugAgent repairs 17/39 contingency cases while reducing total violations by 52.3%. We propose a four-group evaluation framework spanning task utility, solver-grounded correctness, faithfulness and safe failure, and cost and latency. A consistent division of labor emerges: the agentic system reliably orchestrates, retrieves, and explains, while trusted tools compute and a verification gate decides what is reported.

Daniela Rojas, Abdulwahab Albassam, Aidan G. Leung +11

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 1H9, Canada

LLM Agent Orchestration LLM Agent Evaluation LLM Agents Power Systems

Jul 20, 2026cs.MA

A Digital Twin-Based Method for Evaluating Local Collective Tariffs in Distribution-Level Energy Systems

This work addresses the need for engineering-grounded evaluation of implement-ed tariff mechanisms in distribution-level energy systems. A digital twin-based method is proposed for assessing local collective tariffs under realistic behavioral and infrastructural conditions. The approach integrates agent-based modeling of household consumption and generation, virtual aggregation through a shared metering abstraction, and explicit representation of tariff logic within a unified simulation environment. The method is demonstrated through its application to the Danish Local Collective Tariff across representative residential energy community configurations, including scenarios with photovoltaic generation, battery storage, and electric vehicle charging. Results indicate that aggregation of heterogeneous demand profiles reduces peak coincidence and enables more efficient allocation of tariff components, leading to measurable cost reductions at the community level. At the same time, the outcomes reveal sensitivity to the temporal alignment of consumption and generation, influencing the degree of cost neutrality across participants. The findings illustrate how digital twin-based evaluation can support systematic assessment of tariff mechanisms by capturing the interaction between infrastructure, user behavior, and regulatory design. The proposed approach provides a basis for analyzing and comparing tariff structures in distribution-level energy systems beyond the specific case considered.

Kristoffer Christensen, Bo Nørregaard Jørgensen, Zheng Grace Ma

SDU Center for Energy Informatics, Maersk Mc-Kinney Moeller Institute, The Faculty of Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark

Digital Twins Power Systems

Jul 19, 2026eess.SY

A Phased Development Framework Enabling Islanded Operation of Sustainable AI Data Centers With Onsite Grid-Following and Grid-Forming Energy Architectures

As hyperscale and colocation AI data centers continue to expand, the electric grid is increasingly required to support large, concentrated loads, with individual facilities ranging from 500 MW to 2 GW. Current projections estimate that approximately 50 GW of AI data center capacity will require grid connectivity in the United States by 2030. While prior research has extensively examined the environmental and operational impacts of AI data centers, as well as their potential role as grid-interactive assets, limited attention has been given to the challenges associated with their scalable deployment through engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) processes. This manuscript addresses this gap by proposing a phased development framework for AI data center expansion. The approach is designed to enable developers to meet aggressive time-to-market objectives while navigating multi-year constraints associated with interconnection approvals and lead times associated with the procurement of component equipment. A modular construction architecture is presented, along with a detailed analysis of integrated energy systems and the role of hybrid on-site generation in supporting incremental capacity growth. Electromagnetic transient simulations (EMT) are used to evaluate system performance, demonstrating that a combination of on-site natural gas generation and grid-forming energy storage can reliably support data center operations during early and intermediate deployment phases. The study further examines the transition to full grid interconnection, including the capability of the data center to operate in islanded mode during grid disturbances. Finally, the manuscript compares grid-forming control strategies for system reconnection and restoration under varying conditions.

Soham Ghosh, Nabil Mohammed, Mohammad Ashraf Hossain Sadi

Black & Veatch, Overland Park, KS 66211, USA · Centre for New Energy Transition Research (CfNETR) at Federation University, Ballarat, Australia · University of Central Missouri, Warrensburg, MO 64093 USA

Jul 18, 2026eess.SY

Increasing Line Outage Localization Performance with Ensemble Classifiers

In many cases, the outage of one transmission line in a system can be localized by monitoring the power flow of another line, and machine learning methods can be used to distinguish the cases under uncertainty. In this study, we examine the improvements in line outage localization performance achieved by various ensemble classifiers compared to single-model methods. In the case studies, we compared the classification results with measurement data collected at observed transmission lines (OTLs) selected using three algorithms, i.e, greedy maximum coverage problem (MCP), high-eta, and random selection, based on two sensitivity factors, i.e., line outage distribution factors (LODFs) and line outage impact factors (LOIFs). We found that the OTLs selected by the greedy MCP algorithm yielded the highest F1 score and the ensemble classifiers significantly outperformed a base kNN classifier. The extra-trees bagging technique achieved the highest F1 score in many instances. All the findings were statistically significant.

Daniel Flores, Yuanrui Sang, Michael P. McGarry

Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst, MA, United States · Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Texas at El Paso El Paso, TX, United States

Ensemble Learning Power Systems

Jul 17, 2026cs.AR

Mitigating Compiler Fusion-Induced Power Bursts in Mobile NPU Inference as the Battery Depletes

Mobile devices increasingly rely on real-time NPU inference for camera and perception workloads. Under low-voltage conditions, however, a single inference can induce an instantaneous voltage droop in the power-delivery network, causing the power management integrated circuit to invoke dynamic voltage and frequency scaling (DVFS) and increase latency. We present a measurement study of this effect on a commercial smartphone. We show that aggressive operator fusion in a mobile NPU compiler can create monolithic superlayers whose concentrated execution produces large peak-current bursts. These bursts shift the DVFS-onset voltage upward and reduce the low-voltage operating margin. We further evaluate a practical black-box mitigation: a measurement-guided, pre-compilation graph rewrite that inserts barriers at selected peak-to-average power ratio hot spots to prevent harmful superlayer merging in the vendor NPU compiler. On Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 with MobileNetV4 at 768 x 768 resolution on ImageNet-1k, this method reduces peak current from 3.12 A to 1.94 A with 3.76% latency overhead, preserves stable latency deeper into the low-voltage regime, and shifts the inferred DVFS margin by approximately 173 mV.

Ryoga Yuzawa, Masayoshi Tomizuka

UC Berkeley · Sony · Visiting researcher at University of California, Berkeley.

Energy-Efficient ML On-Device Inference Power Systems

Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

Revisiting data-driven dynamic security assessment with a tabular foundation model

Data-driven pre-fault dynamic security assessment (DSA) rapidly evaluates the dynamic risk of credible contingencies on a power system using machine learning. Existing approaches face two limitations. First, they require a large labelled database for training, with a separate model trained, tuned, and maintained for each contingency in a potentially long list of credible contingencies. Second, the trained models generalize poorly to unseen contingencies. This work addresses the limitations by using a tabular foundation model (TFM) that assesses stability through in-context learning, requiring no retraining or hyperparameter optimization. A single TFM can assess many contingencies at once, removing the need for one model per classifier. We also characterize when the use of electrical distance coordinates (EDC) as continuous features enables generalization of TFM to unseen contingencies and when they do not, demonstrating how a few labelled samples can reliably improve generalization. Through comprehensive case studies on the IEEE 68-bus system, we show that a single TFM attains an average Macro F1 score of about 90% with only 120 labelled samples per contingency, roughly two orders of magnitude fewer than conventionally assumed, without any model retraining or hyperparameter tuning. For new/unseen contingencies, we show that using just 10 labelled samples of the new contingency with EDC encoding matches the best achievable transfer learning oracle model, which requires fully labelled data and is not deployable in practice. Overall, this initial study paves the way towards developing and deploying foundation models for power system operations, with possible applications across multiple operational tasks.

Olayiwola Arowolo, Maosheng Yang, Jochen Cremer

Electrical and Sustainable Energy, TU Delft

Tabular Foundation Models Few-Shot Learning In-Context Learning Power Systems

Jul 17, 2026eess.SY

Robustness of Reinforcement Learning-Based Congestion Management in Low-Voltage Grids

Increases in photovoltaic generation, charging of electric vehicles and heat-pump demand challenge operating limits in low-voltage distribution grids. This requires curative curtailment methods that can operate under sparse observability, noisy measurements, and imperfect grid models. Unlike prior end-to-end reinforcement-learning approaches for partially observable curtailment, this work decouples congestion detection and control by combining a random-forest violation pre-classifier with an actor-critic controller, and evaluates its robustness to measurement noise and grid-parameter mismatch. The framework is tested on a real low-voltage grid using synthetic future operating scenarios with low observability and controllability. With accurate grid parameters, the controller reduces total violation magnitude by 98.9%, and this performance remains nearly unchanged under the tested measurement-noise settings. Grid-model mismatch proves to be more challenging, but the controller still mitigates most violations under the tested mismatch assumptions.

Josef Hoppe, Sarra Bouchkati, Farah Nasr +7

Computational Network Science, RWTH Aachen University · IAEW, RWTH Aachen University · E.ON impulse GmbH +2

Partially Observable RL Robust RL Power Systems

Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

A Benchmark for Electrical Load Forecasting Across Grid Levels: Time-Series Transformers Outperform Established Methods

Accurate load forecasting at multiple grid levels is essential for future smart grids, ranging from aggregated control area forecasts for balancing supply and demand to forecasts of individual end-consumer loads for demand-side management and energy management systems. We present a comprehensive benchmark for load forecasting across grid levels, comprising three datasets that represent a transmission system operator control area, low-voltage grid feeders, and individual end consumers. We evaluate ten methods for short-term load forecasting and find that Transformer-based approaches consistently outperform established methods, reducing forecast error by 6.6-10.7 %. To analyze the impact of architectural design, we introduce YAformer, a flexible Transformer architecture that integrates modifications from prior work and is optimized via hyperparameter optimization. However, the standard Transformer achieves superior performance, suggesting that these architectural modifications are not required for accurate load forecasting. We further evaluate the Transformer-based time-series foundation model Chronos-2, which demonstrates competitive zero-shot performance on two datasets but fails to accurately capture special events in the TSO data. Detailed analyses reveal model-specific strengths and weaknesses, and ablation studies highlight the importance of long input contexts, covariates and continuous retraining - aspects that are often overlooked in the time-series forecasting literature.

Matthias Hertel, Sebastian Pütz, Jonathan Kolar +3

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Germany · Helmholtz AI, Germany

Time Series Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Electricity Load Forecasting Time Series Transformers Time-Series Foundation Models Power Systems

Jul 15, 2026cs.LG

MxGPS: Multiplex Graph Transformers for a Power Grid Foundation Model

Single-task fine-tuning of graph neural networks (GNNs) for power grid problems exhibits a systematic failure mode: models that achieve the lowest in-distribution error degrade the most under topology shift. We term this topology overfitting: the tendency of task-specific gradient signals to encode relational structure particular to the training topologies rather than the underlying physics, causing models to fail on unseen grids despite strong in-distribution performance. To expose and address this failure mode, we introduce MxGPS (Multiplex GPS), a multiplex graph transformer that runs K task-specialised GPS branches over a shared node encoder, jointly trained on Static State Estimation (SSE) and AC Power Flow (PF) via a self-supervised pre-training and multi-task fine-tuning protocol, with a cross-branch attention module evaluated in ablation. The joint SSE+PF objective forces the shared encoder to simultaneously satisfy complementary gradient signals, preventing it from overfitting to topology-specific relational structure. Under a 3-fold sliding-window cross-validation spanning four unseen topologies (14-, 24-, 162-, and 300-bus), MxGPS attains 0% boundary violation rate (BVR) on all four zero-shot Power Flow topologies. Critically, models with substantially lower in-distribution PF error degrade by 190% to 1400% under topology shift, whereas MxGPS degrades by only 39%, an inversion that directly implicates topology overfitting as the failure mechanism rather than insufficient model capacity. With only 1.6M parameters (12x fewer than the GridFM reference baseline), MxGPS demonstrates that multi-task joint training is a principled and parameter-efficient mechanism for topology-agnostic generalisation in power grid foundation models.

Charilaos Papaioannou, Ioannis Tsantilas, Dimitris Giannakakos +9

Multi-Task Learning Graph Foundation Models Graph Transformer Power Systems

Jul 14, 2026eess.SY

Audited Selective Verification for Risk-Controlled N-1 Thermal Contingency Screening under Deployment Shift

Real-time N-1 contingency screening in an energy management system trades assurance against cost: verifying every credible outage with full power flow is too slow, while fast linear-sensitivity screening gives no statistical guarantee and can silently pass unsafe operating points, especially when a controller drives the system into unfamiliar regimes. This paper introduces Audited Selective Verification, a risk-budgeted screening and triage layer for any controller's output (optimization, model-predictive, or learned). A cheap surrogate proposes which outages to skip; an online audit runs full power flow on a small random sample each window; and a calibrated threshold certifies a thermal-violation-rate bound for the skipped set at a chosen budget and confidence, with a corresponding bound for the unverified trusted subset. Validity rests on real verification and the audit rather than on surrogate accuracy, so it holds under arbitrary deployment shift. It is a risk-budgeted screen, not a replacement for deterministic verification when policy requires checking every credible contingency. On three public transmission systems up to 1354 buses, the realized violation rate stays within budget, standard deterministic and calibrated screens become unsafe under shift, and the method cuts full power-flow studies by 29 to 75 percent per real-time operating point.

Jayakumar Manoharan

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Charlotte, NC, USA

Runtime Assurance Power Systems

Jul 14, 2026cs.LG

Constraint-Aware Aggregation for Federated Reinforcement Learning in Microgrid Energy Coordination

Federated Reinforcement Learning (FedRL) enables coordination of distributed energy resources without sharing raw local data, but standard aggregation methods such as FedAvg do not account for system-level constraints, often leading to unsafe global behavior. In this work, we study constraint-aware aggregation for federated reinforcement learning in distributed energy coordination. We propose aggregation rules that incorporate both local performance and estimated constraint violation into the server-side update. Among these, a simple penalty-based rule,

w_i \propto R_i - αV_i

, consistently provides the most reliable trade-off between reward and safety, without requiring dual optimization or modifications to local training. \textcolor{black}{We evaluate our approach on DairyGridEnv, a benchmark modeling multiple farms coordinating battery storage under stochastic demand and a shared grid capacity constraint, and further assess robustness using real load-driven demand profiles from Finland and the German FIELD dataset. Across multiple seeds, penalty-based aggregation substantially reduces violations while improving reward relative to FedAvg in both synthetic and real load-driven settings.} A combined reward-violation scheme exposes a tunable trade-off via

λ

, but is less stable. These results demonstrate that lightweight aggregation strategies can substantially improve empirical safety in federated reinforcement learning while preserving standard communication protocols.

Usman Haider, Karl Mason

School of Computer Science, University of Galway, Ireland.

Federated Learning Aggregation Federated RL Constrained RL Power Systems

Jul 14, 2026eess.SY

Gradient-Free Topology Adaptation for Power Flow Surrogates via In-Context Whitening

Machine-learned surrogates for the AC power flow (ACPF) problem amortize the cost of repeated solves on a fixed network, but lose one to two orders of magnitude of accuracy when a line outage changes the topology. This degradation is an operator shift. The altered admittance matrix changes the input-to-output map, so identical inputs yield a different output distribution. Existing methods correct this with target-topology data and per-topology gradient steps. We ask whether the correction can instead be made statistical and gradient-free. We propose In-Context Whitening (ICW), which trains an ACPF surrogate in an output space whitened by the base topology's first two moments, and adapts it to an unseen N-1 or N-2 topology by re-estimating that whitening from a few hundred solved cases on the new topology. This adaptation is gradient-free, weight-free, and architecture-agnostic. We prove that among affine whiteners the unique choice that preserves the coordinate-wise semantics of the physical output vector is ZCA whitening, so within efficient invertible corrections, two moments are sufficient. Across the IEEE 30-, 118-, and 300-bus systems under N-1 and N-2 contingencies, ICW reduces overall error by 6

\times

to 28

\times

over frozen surrogates (up to 54

\times

per-quantity under N-2) and cuts worst-bus power-balance mismatch by up to 30

\times

, with consistent gains across three backbones. At deployment scale it matches or beats gradient-based adaptation in accuracy while adapting 21

\times

to 34

\times

faster, with a cost that parallelizes on commodity CPU cores rather than requiring one GPU per contingency.

Ayushi Jolotia, Parikshit Pareek

Department of Electrical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee

Neural Surrogate Modeling Surrogate Modeling Test-Time Adaptation Power Systems

Jul 11, 2026eess.SY

Comparing Socially-Equitable Renewable Energy Budget Allocation MDP Policies in Mature and Emerging Economies

Equitable renewable-energy planning is a sequential decision problem, but the decision variables available to a public planner differ sharply between mature and emerging economies. In the former the government largely builds generation, while in the latter it steers private investment through incentives and quotas. We formulate socially-equitable renewable-energy budget allocation as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and, using a single problem-agnostic solver interface, compare the same policies across the two settings: eight U.S. cities (a mature economy) and West Java, Indonesia (an emerging economy). The results show that across both settings, a receding-horizon value-iteration policy dominates. In the U.S., it reaches 66% renewable penetration while cutting the underserved low-income population by 96% versus a random baseline. In West Java it closes the low-access gap while crowding in the most private capital. More interestingly, a naive market-chasing heuristic, which is mildly sub-optimal in the U.S., could yield catastrophic outcomes in Indonesia, by underserving every low-access region, because chasing attractive markets and serving the underserved goals diverge once the planner acts through private developers.

Riya Kinnarkar, Mansur M. Arief, Yan Pratama Akhra +1

Management & Technology University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA, USA

Fair Resource Allocation Policy Evaluation Power Systems

Jul 10, 2026cs.LG

Power Flow Feasibility Assessment Using Variational Graph Autoencoders

Data-driven methods, including graph neural networks, have been studied for accelerating power flow calculations in recent years, but very little attention has been paid to the solution feasibility, which can be obtained by traditional solvers. This paper presents a Variational Graph Autoencoder (VGAE) that detects the power flow solution feasibility, using the IEEE 118-bus case, to assess the validity of the solutions provided by AI-driven solvers.

Ferran Bohigas-Daranas, Hamid Latif-Martinez, Eduardo Prieto-Araujo +2

CITCEA UPC Barcelona, Spain · BNN UPC Barcelona,Spain

Graph Neural Networks Power Systems

Jul 9, 2026cs.LG

A Machine Learning Surrogate for Component Criticality Ranking in Interdependent Power-Communication Networks

Cyber-physical power systems are vulnerable to cascading failures caused by tight interdependencies between power and communication infrastructures. Evaluating these failures over large N-k contingency sets with a high-fidelity simulator is computationally prohibitive for resilience planning. Using the previously published Modified Implicative Interdependency Model (MIIM) as the ground-truth cascade simulator, this paper develops a machine-learning surrogate that predicts contingency severity from leakage-free structural features and derives a component-criticality ranking for prioritized hardening analysis. On the IEEE 118-bus system, the Gradient Boosting surrogate achieves Spearman correlations of 0.849 for per-contingency severity prediction and 0.853 for per-component criticality ranking, while remaining stable across three independently sampled datasets. MIIM-derived component criticality itself reproduces only to a Spearman of approximately 0.85 under the present sampling pipeline, and the surrogate operates at this empirical ceiling to within sampling variation. Topological centrality measures on the full interdependent network provide meaningful baselines (Spearman 0.60-0.69), and feature ablation shows that the surrogate's advantage is driven primarily by inter-layer dependency information. These results support a two-stage workflow in which the surrogate rapidly ranks candidate components and MIIM is reserved for selective verification.

Sohini Roy, Xheni Hylviu

Department of Computer Science University of Nevada, Las Vegas Las Vegas, USA

Cyber-Physical Systems Surrogate Modeling Power Systems