Regression Prediction Intervals

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8 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
Jun 14, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneWeighted Conformal Prediction Conformal Prediction
aUniversity of Texas Rio Grande Valley, United States · bFlorida International University, United States
SPACR: Single-Pass Adaptive Training of Uncertainty-Aware Conformal Regressors
Jun 9, 2026Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau, Sébastien DesterckeConformal Prediction Adaptive Conformal Inference
Heudiasyc - UMR CNRS 7253, Université de Technologie de Compiègne
Report the Floor: A Training-Free Conformal Interval Is a Mandatory Baseline for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting
Jun 8, 2026Valery ManokhinTime Series Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks
Independent researcher.
Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts
Jun 7, 2026Ágnes Baran, Máté MihalinaProbabilistic Forecasting Regression Prediction Intervals
Faculty of Informatics, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
Conformal Prediction for Neural Operators: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Physics Simulation
Jun 7, 2026Michael ChinUncertainty Quantification PDE Surrogate Modeling
Independent Researcher
Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model
Jun 5, 2026Karla Tame-Narvaez, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Shubhendu TrivediUncertainty Quantification AI-Assisted Scientific Research
Scientific Computing Division Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory Batavia, IL 60510 · Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics University of Chicago Chicago, IL 60637 · Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory Batavia, IL 60510 +1
Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels
Jun 1, 2026Jose Marie Antonio Miñoza, Rex Gregor Laylo, Sebastian C. IbañezUncertainty Quantification Independent Component Analysis
Center for AI Research · Department of Education · Makati, Philippines
A Systematic Evaluation of Current Architectures in Wind Power Forecasting
Jun 1, 2026Vinicius Bortolini, Gilson Adamczuk Oliveira, Erick Oliveira Rodrigues +1Time Series Forecasting Wind Power Forecasting
Industrial and Systems Engineering Graduate Program (PPGEPS), Federal University of Technology Parand (UTFPR), Pato Branco, Parand $5503-390, Brazil
EnergyMamba: An Uncertainty-Aware Graph-Enhanced Selective State Space Model for Energy Consumption Prediction
May 30, 2026Dahai Yu, Rongchao Xu, Lin Jiang +1Selective SSMs Time Series Forecasting
Florida State University · Tallahassee, Florida, USA
Scientific Machine Learning for Engine Health Management and Remaining Useful Life Prediction
May 28, 2026Jostein Barry-Straume, Changmin Son, Adrian Sandu +4RUL Estimation Predictive Maintenance
Computational Science Laboratory Department of Computer Science Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24060
Benchmarking Machine Learning Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies for Predicting Turbine Gas Temperature Degradation
May 28, 2026Jostein Barry-Straume, Changmin Son, Adrian Sandu +4Uncertainty Quantification Predictive Maintenance
Computational Science Laboratory Department of Computer Science Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA 24060
Leave a Window Out: Modifying the Jackknife for Predictive Inference in Time Series
May 28, 2026Hanyang Jiang, Rina Foygel Barber, Ashwin Pananjady +1Conformal Prediction Regression Prediction Intervals
Schools of Industrial and Systems Engineering⋆and Electrical and Computer Engineering†, Georgia Tech · Department of Statistics, University of Chicago‡
Distribution-Aware Conformal Prediction: A Framework for generating efficient prediction intervals for time series
May 26, 2026Daniel Schweizer, Peter Kuhn, Jayant Sharma +3Conformal Prediction Uncertainty Calibration
Fraunhofer Institute for Highspeed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI Freiburg, Germany
CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support
May 19, 2026Ricardo Diaz-Rincon, Muxuan Liang, Adolfo Ramirez-Zamora +1Clinical Decision Support Conformal Prediction
University of Florida · MD Anderson Cancer Center · University of Louisville
Decoupled Conformal Optimisation: Efficient Prediction Sets via Independent Tuning and Calibration
May 18, 2026Fanyi Wu, Lihua Niu, Samuel Kaski +1Conformal Prediction Regression Prediction Intervals
Department of Computer Science, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK · UKRI AI Centre for Doctoral Training in Decision Making for Complex Systems · Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland +1
Online Conformal Prediction for Non-Exchangeable Panel Data
May 18, 2026Daohong Tu, Kay GieseckeWeighted Conformal Prediction Conformal Prediction
Department of Management Science and Engineering Stanford University
Skew-adaptive conformal prediction
May 15, 2026Paulo C. Marques F., Helton GraziadeiConformal Prediction Regression Prediction Intervals
Insper Institute of Education and Research S˜ao Paulo, SP, 04546-042, Brazil · Department of Statistics Federal University of S˜ao Carlos S˜ao Carlos, SP, 13565-905, Brazil
Learning Context-conditioned Gaussian Overbounds for Convolution-Based Uncertainty Propagation
May 15, 2026Ruirui Liu, Xuejie Hou, Yiping Jiang +1Uncertainty Quantification Uncertainty Propagation
Department of Aeronautical and Aviation Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
Uncertainty-Aware Prediction of Lung Tumor Growth from Sparse Longitudinal CT Data via Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks
May 13, 2026Lingfei Kong, Haoran MaMedical Image Analysis Longitudinal Medical Image Analysis
Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, USA · John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Science, Harvard University, Allston, MA, USA
Partial Model Sharing Improves Byzantine Resilience in Federated Conformal Prediction
May 12, 2026Ehsan Lari, Reza Arablouei, Stefan WernerByzantine-Robust Federated Learning Conformal Prediction
Department of Electronic Systems, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway · 2CSIRO’s Data61, Pullenvale QLD 4069, Australia · Department of Information and Communications Engineering, Aalto University, Finland
Beyond Prediction: Interval Neural Networks for Uncertainty-Aware System Identification
May 12, 2026Mehmet Ali Ferah, Tufan KumbasarUncertainty Quantification Nonlinear System Identification
Artificial Intelligence and Intelligent Systems Laboratory, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Türkiye
RareCP: Regime-Aware Retrieval for Efficient Conformal Prediction
May 9, 2026Manuel Heurich, Maximilian Granz, Tim LandgrafWeighted Conformal Prediction Time Series Forecasting
Institute for Computer Science Freie Universität Berlin Arnimallee 7 14195 Berlin
Delving into Non-Exchangeability for Conformal Prediction in Graph-Structured Multivariate Time Series
May 6, 2026Ruichao Guo, Xingyao Han, Luo Wenshui +3Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Conformal Prediction
School of Automation and Intelligent Sensing, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
Quantile-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Graph Neural Networks
May 6, 2026Soyoung park, Hwanjun Song, Sungsu LimGraph Neural Networks Uncertainty Quantification
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, Korea · Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon, Korea
Bi-Level Chaotic Fusion Based Graph Convolutional Network for Stock Market Prediction Interval
May 5, 2026Eshwar Sai Kandimalla, Sravan Chowdary Kankanala, Sumana Bhimineni +2Financial Forecasting Financial Time Series
Department of Computer Science & Engineering, SRM University AP, India
Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance
May 4, 2026Ran Zou, Wanrong Zhu, Bin NanProbability Calibration Group-Conditional Conformal Prediction
Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine
Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction
May 1, 2026Yu-Hsueh Fang, Chia-Yen LeeConformal Prediction Temporal Distribution Shift
Department of Information Management, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd., Da’an Dist., Taipei, 106216, Taiwan.
ConformaDecompose: Explaining Uncertainty via Calibration Localization
Apr 29, 2026Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu, Meltem Aksoy, Alberto Rigenti +4Uncertainty Quantification Conformal Prediction
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Bologna, Italy · Marketing and Sales, Automobili Lamborghini S.p.A, Sant’Agata Bolognese, Italy · RCT Data Science and Security, Technical University Dortmund, Germany +4
Conformalized Super Learner
Apr 24, 2026Zhanli Wu, Fabrizio Leisen, Miguel-Angel Luque-Fernandez +1Ensemble Learning Conformal Prediction
Department of Mathematics King’s College London London, UK · Department of Statistics and Operations Research University of Granada Granada, Spain · Department of Statistical Science University College London London, UK
Text-to-Distribution Prediction with Quantile Tokens and Neighbor Context
Apr 22, 2026Yilun Zhu, Yuan Zhuang, Nikhita Vedula +6Quantile Regression Regression Prediction Intervals
Amazon.com, Inc. · Stanford University

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Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data

Jeffery Opoku, David Banahene

aUniversity of Texas Rio Grande Valley, United States · bFlorida International University, United States

Weighted Conformal Prediction Conformal Prediction Spectral Methods Regression Prediction Intervals

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Conformal prediction gives prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage when the data are exchangeable. Many time-indexed datasets are not exchangeable. They have seasons, recurring regimes, changing frequencies, or other forms of structured dependence. This paper studies a simple way to use that structure. We propose spectral adaptive conformal prediction, a method that forms weighted conformal quantiles using local spectral similarity and then updates the target miscoverage level online. The spectral weights choose calibration residuals that look relevant to the current test point. The adaptive update corrects the long-run miss rate when uncertainty changes over time. We give an approximate coverage result for the fixed spectral weighted quantile and a deterministic long-run calibration result for the adaptive update. Simulations with recurring regimes and slowly changing frequencies, together with three U.S. real-data examples, show that the hybrid method can improve on fixed spectral weighting, while also showing that spectral weighting must be monitored through effective sample size diagnostics.

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