Spatiotemporal Prediction

Numerical site-response predictions often deviate from observations, yet correcting these discrepancies is difficult because records are limited in both sensor coverage and number of events. This study proposes the Transfer-Enabled Forced Latent Autoencoder for Response Equations (FLARE-T) to improve these predictions by learning and calibrating low-dimensional latent dynamics that connect the base acceleration input to acceleration outputs at multiple depths. FLARE-T learns a low-dimensional response manifold and input-driven dynamics from dense finite-element simulations. It then trains a sparse encoder to map simulated sensor responses into the learned coordinates and uses limited records to calibrate the dynamics within them. A short response window initializes each prediction, while the complete base motion drives the response. The framework was evaluated using a layered-soil centrifuge test and the Lotung field vertical array. Test-set results show that FLARE-T improved multi-depth acceleration histories and 5%-damped pseudoacceleration response spectra relative to the original finite-element models, reducing errors at every evaluated sensor for motions of different intensities and, at Lotung, for both horizontal components. Two Lotung source models with different constitutive parameters achieved comparable test-set accuracy, indicating reduced dependence on precise prior calibration. FLARE-T therefore provides a data-efficient means of combining dense numerical response information with limited field records to improve future site-response predictions.

Wildfire spread is traditionally predicted using physics-based simulators, which are physically interpretable but whose cost increases with each additional ensemble member. We ask how well deep learning surrogates can reproduce these simulations at a fraction of this cost, training them on 10,584 fire spread simulations at 2m resolution for the Rectoret region in Catalonia, Spain. Four architectures are compared: a patch-based U-Net, a transfer-learned ResNet-50, a physics-informed network constrained by the wind-driven advection equation and a Swin-Unet transformer. Among the terrain and vegetation variables, only surface fuel load predicts burn probability with any strength (r = 0.27) and including it lowers prediction error by 21%. The remaining variables correlate weakly and are highly duplicative. Next, an experiment with saliency, occlusion and rotation demonstrates the models' learning. Convolutional models rely primarily on distance from the current fire front, while Swin-Unet assigns more weight to fuel and terrain, a finding also noted in an unrelated wildfire dataset. When applied without retraining to the second region, Pedriza, all three convolutional models still predict fire spread, losing accuracy by a small but systematic margin.

While accurate measurement of socioeconomic indicators remains challenging in data-scarce regions, which limits policy interventions and resource allocation, high-resolution geospatial data is widely available and can contain information on various livability statistics. We investigate which physical features are encoded within foundation model embeddings, such as AlphaEarth, AnySat, and TerraMind, and provide a systematic framework for identifying the most predictive geospatial indicators. By analyzing how different types of geospatial data influence urban livability predictions, our approach enables researchers to prioritize the most informative features for their specific applications. Additionally, we demonstrate how to leverage foundation model embeddings to enhance prediction performance for these outcomes. This work contributes a principled methodology for extracting actionable information from satellite imagery while accounting for complex spatial dependencies, with applications in predicting urban livability in regions with limited observation data.

Spatiotemporal prediction on graph-structured data is central to traffic forecasting and environmental monitoring, yet decentralized and heterogeneous data complicate both sequence modeling and collaborative training. We propose F$^2$STNet, a federated forecasting framework that combines truncated graph-Fourier features, a lightweight diagonal state-space temporal encoder, graph convolution, and Fairness-aware Federated Aggregation (FFA). The spectral branch exposes graph-frequency structure, while the state-space layer models long temporal dependencies with linear complexity in the sequence length. FFA adjusts the FedAvg prior using client validation losses and an increasing fairness schedule. Experiments on PeMS04, HZMetro, and KnowAir show favorable forecasting accuracy relative to the evaluated baselines; federated experiments on PeMS04 additionally improve worst-client and client-dispersion metrics.

Machine learning, and deep networks in particular, are increasingly used to derive higher-level Earth observation (EO) products such as annual land-cover and crop-type maps. Many are generated operationally: each year a new acquisition is processed, typically with the same model, extending a multi-year archive. In the process these systems accumulate two kinds of useful signal that are almost never fed back into the model: the system's own archive of past predictions, and ancillary layers produced by other partners in a processing consortium. Both are normally used outside the network, as rule-based post-processing or a fixed input mask. Using the Copernicus Land Monitoring Service High Resolution Layer (HRL) Croplands crop-type product as a testbed, we show that bringing both signals inside the model turns a single-year, single-task pixel classifier into one that reasons across years. We introduce a Crop Type (CTY) embedding encoder that represents each past prediction as a confidence-scaled, time-ordered categorical token and attends over the year axis, and we study how the externally provided Base Vegetation Layer (BVL) mask should be represented in the model's inputs and outputs. To compare designs fairly when they relabel non-crop pixels, we evaluate on the 18 crop classes only and report precision and recall separately. On a pan-European dataset of about 5.4M labelled pixels, adding the prediction history raises crop-only F1 by 1.6 percentage points (pp) and, more importantly, corrects a recall-skewed error profile, with the largest gains on perennial and tree crops (olives +4.6, fruits +3.7, nuts +3.2 pp). Representing the BVL mask consistently in both the history and the target year adds about 2.5 pp on the crop classes. The approach is a low-cost recipe for any recurring geospatial or foundation model that emits class maps.

Spatial atomic layer deposition (SALD) is a leading atmospheric-pressure, high-throughput route to industrial ALD, but design and control are limited by the cost of predicting surface coverage: high-fidelity CFD is far too slow for operating-window scans, while analytic models miss transport modulation such as the gas curtain. We present a physics-chemistry-informed neural network (PCINN), a hybrid surrogate with CFD-level accuracy at real-time speed: a query returns coverage in about 7 ms, roughly 5x10^4 times faster than a CFD solve, reaching a test R^2_log = 0.998 (leave-one-out R^2_raw = 0.974) from only 30 training cases spanning four orders of magnitude in coverage. The architecture is not a black box: a small network learns only the operating-condition to near-wall concentration closure, while the known surface kinetics is a hard-coded, trainable chemistry layer integrated along the substrate trajectory. This single-scalar bottleneck keeps it accurate under sparse data, interpretable and invertible. We add a full identifiability analysis (Fisher information, profile likelihood). The adsorption energy E_ads and desorption rate k_des are robustly identifiable; k_ads is not separately identifiable at a single temperature (only k_ads*c_wall is). Across four temperatures the prefactor nu and E_ads bind along a weakly identifiable degeneracy valley of slope 0.065 eV/decade, derived analytically as k_B T_eff ln(10) and turned into a reliability diagnostic: a seven-chemistry mismatch matrix shows it is invariant under any single-Arrhenius mismatch and shifts only when a second thermally activated process appears, so a slope departure flags unmodelled site heterogeneity. Data come from simulation with known ground truth inverted by the same kinetic form, so the study verifies pipeline self-consistency and the identifiability boundary, not real parameters.

Accurate estimation of soil microplastics and organic matter is essential to assess ecosystem health and support sustainable land use. This study presents a graph-based deep learning approach using Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to model spatial dependencies among 91 georeferenced soil samples. By incorporating spatial coordinates, soil properties, and land use data, a two-layer GAT architecture was developed to capture local interactions. The final model showed strong performance, achieving RMSEs of 625.06 ($R^2 = 0.87$) for microplastics and 0.43 ($R^2 = 0.91$) for organic matter. However, cross-validation results revealed limited generalization, probably due to the small sample size and sparse graph structure. These findings demonstrate the potential of GATs for spatial soil prediction and underscore the need for dense datasets and improved graph connectivity.

Structured understanding of satellite video is essential for advancing dynamic geospatial scene analysis from low-level perception to high-level cognition. To move beyond object-centric perception, this paper introduces spatio-temporal panoptic scene graph generation (TPSG) in satellite video as a new benchmark task. TPSG aims to generate a structured graph composed of a set of triplets <subject, relationship, object> with explicit temporal spans, thereby describing dynamic geospatial scenes by jointly modeling identity-consistent instance masks and spatio-temporal relationships among panoptic scene elements. However, there is still no dedicated dataset for TPSG in satellite video. Moreover, TPSG in satellite video is intrinsically challenging, as objects are often small and weakly textured, cross-frame association is easily disrupted by occlusion and background clutter, and relationship semantics are highly coupled with spatial structure and temporal evolution. Consequently, TPSG models developed for natural videos are not directly applicable to satellite video. This paper presents T-STAR, a large-scale benchmark dataset for TPSG in satellite video, comprising over 1.1 million instance masks and over 3.8 million spatio-temporal triplets across 39 fine-grained object categories and 70 fine-grained relationship categories. To enable TPSG in satellite video, we propose a unified framework to enhance cross-frame instance consistency and spatio-temporal relationship prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of T-STAR and the effectiveness of the proposed framework, establishing a strong benchmark for future research on structured satellite video understanding. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/linlin-dev/T-STAR.

Accurate path loss prediction is a critical component of wireless network planning. Current path loss prediction methods typically struggle to balance the trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. This paper proposes the Efficient Attention Radio Map Estimation Network (EA-RMENet) which is an image data-driven, deep learning (DL) model designed for radio map estimation (RME). EA-RMENet uses a U-Net framework with an EfficientNetB5 encoder, Attention Gated (AG) skip connections, and Atrous Spatial Pyramid Pooling (ASPP). The EfficientNet encoder uses compound scaling to balance accuracy and efficiency. AG skip connections suppress irrelevant features, and the ASPP captures a multi-scale context. The model has a test prediction RMSE of 0.0334 on the RadioMapSeer3D dataset with an inference time of 0.022 seconds/sample. In the ICASSP 2023 Radio Map Prediction Challenge, the model ranks third with a competitive RMSE of 0.0406 this highlights the models potential for real-world RME.

Unsteady aerodynamic phenomena, such as gusts, turbulence, and fluid-structure interactions affect an aircraft during flight. For design, optimisation and certification, it is indispensable to quantify such unsteady aerodynamic effects. Industry-standard computational fluid dynamics methods, such as solving the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations or the linearized frequency domain method, are either computationally expensive or restricted by assumptions like linearity. Once trained, machine learning methods are capable of computing non-linear relationships very fast, making them suitable as surrogate models. By autoregressively applying graph neural networks (GNNs), operating on a discretised spatial domain, spatio-temporal predictions can be made. However, autoregressive GNNs suffer from error accumulation leading to unstable rollouts over time. Here we show that combining GNNs with augmented Neural Ordinary Differential Equations yields temporally stable predictions of the surface forces on a pitching airfoil. We found that our approach, called GNODE, based on Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equations, provides temporally more stable, spatially smoother, and overall more accurate results than an autoregressive GNN baseline. Tests are conducted on a dataset consisting of a simulations of a pitching airfoil, including transonic shocks, transient behaviour and dynamic non-linearities. Augmenting GNODEs with additional latent dimensions improves the expressivity and accuracy by capturing underlying history effects. The developed method demonstrates an approach that is suitable to model non-linear spatio-temporal systems with exogenous inputs.

Predicting complex spatiotemporal dynamics in physical processes often demands computationally expensive numerical methods or data-driven neural networks that suffer from high training costs, error accumulation, and limited generalizability to unseen parameters. An effective approach to address these challenges is leveraging physics priors in training neural networks, known as physics-informed deep learning (PiDL). In this work, we introduce the Multi-Resolution Finite-Volume-inspired network, MuRFiV, designed to capitalize on the conservative property of finite volume on the global scale and the expressive power of deep learning on the local scale. We demonstrate the effectiveness of MuRFiV on several spatio-temporal systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs), including Burgers' equation, shallow water equations, and incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. By embedding PDE information into the deep learning architecture, MuRFiV achieves strong long-term prediction accuracy and remains stable over very long autoregressive rollouts, significantly outperforming data-driven neural network baselines. This result highlights the promise of combining multiresolution learning with finite-volume-inspired inductive bias for accurate and robust long-term prediction of complex dynamics.

Understanding and predicting microstructure evolution is central to materials design, yet purely data-driven spatiotemporal learning models often suffer from limited physical consistency and degraded long-term prediction accuracy. In this work, we introduce a physics-guided fully convolutional spatiotemporal learning framework for microstructure evolution prediction. Unlike prior self-supervised approaches, the proposed method explicitly incorporates governing physical equations into the training objective, thereby encouraging the learned dynamics to remain consistent with known thermodynamic and kinetic laws. This physics-guided formulation improves predictive accuracy, long-horizon stability, and robustness across spatial resolutions and temporal prediction settings. Extensive experiments for spinodal decomposition demonstrate that incorporating physics-guided residual regularization leads to more faithful reproduction of microstructural morphology, statistics, and evolution trends compared with purely data-driven baselines. The proposed framework preserves the scalability and computational efficiency of fully convolutional architectures while bridging the gap between high-fidelity physics-based simulations and data-driven surrogate modeling, offering a reliable and efficient surrogate-modeling step toward digital-twin-enabled microstructure evolution prediction.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

Spatial prediction tasks are often limited by a lack of high-quality labelled ground-truth observations. To overcome this challenge, self-supervised pre-training is a possible solution, with contrastive learning dominant for location encoders. Those approaches usually align geographic coordinates with just one additional modality. We propose two multimodal contrastive learning architectures: Multimodal Embedding via Location Tying (MELT) and Sequential Alternating Location Training (SALT). These architectures expand this framework beyond two modalities by utilising unpaired geospatial data. Both methods are technically viable and match the performance of the strongest two-modality baseline (SATCLIP) across four downstream tasks. However, increasing the number of modalities does not consistently improve performance, suggesting that the chosen location encoder is the main limitation - the contrastive objective reaches its peak early, regardless of modality diversity or pre-training volume. MELT provides more stable training than SALT and presents a stronger foundation for future scaling.

Spatio-temporal prediction supports radar/satellite nowcasting and city-scale traffic monitoring, but modern models are often too expensive for real-time deployment. This stems from a mismatch between dense computation and strong input-dependent redundancy (e.g., calm seas or clear skies). To enable automated, resource-aware architecture optimization in scalable media analysis, we propose Dyna-Pruner, an end-to-end framework for input-dependent co-pruning of data and model structure. A shared-importance synchronization mechanism generates coupled masks that prune redundant regions and their corresponding computational units (e.g., convolutional filters), yielding per-sample sparse sub-networks at inference time. Experiments on WeatherBench, SEVIR, and TaxiBJ show seamless integration with CNN, RNN, and Transformer backbones, reducing FLOPs by up to $70\%$ and achieving a $2.5\times$ speedup on NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin with negligible accuracy loss ($<1\%$).

Traffic prediction is fundamental to intelligent transportation systems and urban computing, yet many cities continue to suffer from traffic data scarcity due to limited sensor deployment and uneven urban development. Cross-city knowledge transfer has thus attracted increasing attention, enabling data-rich cities to assist data-scarce ones. However, centralized approaches raise privacy concerns, while existing federated methods struggle with pronounced spatiotemporal heterogeneity across cities. To address these challenges, we propose MoE-FedTP, a personalized federated cross-city spatiotemporal prediction framework based on lightweight Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) networks. MoE-FedTP first employs spatiotemporal neural networks to extract features from both source and target cities, then introduces a set of expert networks derived from different source cities through partial parameter sharing. A gating mechanism dynamically fuses the experts to capture diverse traffic dynamics, achieving fine-grained modeling of urban heterogeneity while preserving privacy. Experiments on four real-world traffic datasets show that MoE-FedTP consistently outperforms state-of-the-art cross-city and federated learning baselines, demonstrating its effectiveness in enhancing prediction accuracy for data-scarce cities.

In this paper, we propose a perturbation-based conformal prediction framework for uncertainty quantification in operator learning, with a focus on the 2D Navier--Stokes equations. While neural operators provide fast surrogates for expensive PDE solvers, they do not by themselves provide calibrated uncertainty for spatiotemporal field predictions. Our approach wraps a trained Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) with split conformal prediction and constructs the local uncertainty scale by comparing the predictions of two operators trained on nearly identical datasets: one on the original labels and one on labels perturbed by small Gaussian noise. We consider this procedure in the data-scarce regime, where the total label budget is fixed and methods that require a separate uncertainty network must divide training data between multiple models. On the 2D Navier--Stokes benchmark, the perturbation-based method produces substantially narrower conformal bands than existing methods under matched total data budgets while maintaining the target simultaneous coverage. These results suggest that perturbation sensitivity is a practical and sample-efficient uncertainty proxy for conformalized neural operators.

Optimizing urban layouts for climate adaptation requires balancing building density with cold-air ventilation. Because physics-based climate simulations are computationally expensive, planners typically evaluate fewer than ten manual designs. \gls{qd} algorithms offer a way to systematically illuminate the design space, but they require surrogate models to be practical. In this paper, we replace a slow, regulatory physics simulator with a spatial deep-learning surrogate (U-Net) inside an offline MAP-Elites loop. We systematically compare this spatial approach with a traditional \gls{gp} surrogate across different training-data strategies (quasi-random Sobol sampling vs.\ active \gls{qd} bootstrapping). Our results reveal that scalar \gls{gp} surrogates fail catastrophically when trained on random samples, requiring expensive, actively generated \gls{qd} archives to generalize. In contrast, the spatial inductive bias of the U-Net allows it to learn the underlying physics mapping robustly ($R^2 = 0.996$), completely independent of the training data source. This allows offline \gls{qd} optimization to achieve highly accurate fitness rankings ($ρ= 0.994$) using only a one-time batch of random training samples. The resulting pipeline, deployed in the open-source OpenSKIZZE tool, generates thousands of diverse, climate-evaluated building layouts in under ten minutes.

Predicting a complete spatially correlated field from sparse observations is a fundamental challenge in spatial statistics and environmental modelling. Classical interpolation methods such as Kriging rely on Gaussian process assumptions and variography, which can limit their effectiveness in non-stationary settings and require substantial domain expertise. In this work, we leverage an architecture based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for spatial interpolation that is trained and applied on a single partially observed field, without access to external data or prior fields. The model is supervised directly on the observed locations and learns to predict values at unobserved points on the user defined grid. Unlike Kriging, our method does not require explicit covariance modelling or variogram estimation, and it can flexibly capture local spatial patterns in a data-driven manner. This work demonstrates the potential of CNNs for single-instance spatial interpolation under sparse supervision, offering a practical alternative to classical geostatistical methods, and extending the use of CNNs to a new problem domain.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) provide a promising foundation for autonomous driving planning, yet bridging semantic reasoning and precise 3D spatial forecasting remains a critical challenge. Existing representation strategies generally follow two paths: text-aligned methods flatten continuous spatial states into symbols, which compromises geometric structure and induces "spatial hallucinations"; dense visual methods preserve spatial topology but overwhelm standard tokenizers with redundant background textures, leading to "representation interference". To address these limitations, we introduce TPS-Drive, a novel framework centered on Task-Guided Representation Purification that empowers VLMs to Think in Purified Space. At its core, an Agent-Centric Tokenizer utilizes a task-guided vector quantization mechanism supervised by a frozen 3D detection head, which explicitly reallocates limited codebook capacity from pervasive static backgrounds to critical dynamic agents and effectively isolates spatial redundancy. Leveraging this purified spatial vocabulary, TPS-Drive employs a decoupled reasoning pipeline that sequentially performs scene understanding, future forecasting, and action generation. The framework is optimized via a progressive three-stage training paradigm, culminating in reward-driven refinement that surpasses pure imitation learning. Extensive experiments validate our approach: TPS-Drive achieves accurate agent spatial state forecasting and reduces collision rates in open-loop nuScenes evaluations, while establishing new safety records on the rigorous closed-loop NAVSIMv1 and NAVSIMv2 benchmarks.

Heatwaves are an important problem in cities, and climate change makes this problem more difficult. In this paper, we present a GPU-based deep learning framework for next-day prediction of urban thermal conditions and for heat risk assessment. The study was carried out in Sarajevo by using MODIS land surface temperature data and Open-Meteo forecast data. We tested several models, including convolutional models and spatiotemporal models. Among them, ConvLSTM with a mixed loss function gave the best results. The obtained values were MAE = 0.2293, RMSE = 0.3089, and R2 = 0.8877. The experiments also showed that results can be improved by using longer temporal series and additional meteorological variables. Since the framework was implemented on a GPU and trained with mixed precision, the execution time was reduced. Based on the predicted temperature fields, it was also possible to combine hazard information with exposure and vulnerability data in order to generate city heat risk maps. The proposed framework can be used as a practical basis for city heat analysis.

Extreme ocean phenomena are challenging not only to predict but to diagnose, as accurate forecasts alone do not reveal the underlying physical drivers. While recent machine learning approaches achieve strong predictive skill, they remain largely opaque and provide limited guarantees of fidelity to ground-truth physics. We introduce OceanCBM, the first concept bottleneck model (CBM) for spatiotemporal prediction and mechanistic interrogation of ocean dynamics. OceanCBM uses mixed supervision to predict mixed layer heat content, a key precursor of marine heatwaves, while routing information through an intermediate layer of prescribed concepts derived from geophysical fluid dynamics and a 'free' concept. This design imposes soft physical structure without over-constraining the model, and the free concept both regularizes concept predictions and captures residual physical processes. Across ensemble initializations, we show that mixed supervision yields consistent mechanistic representations, whereas prediction-only and prescription-only baselines learn highly variable latent structures despite similar predictive performance. OceanCBM achieves interpretable, physically grounded representations without sacrificing skill, explicitly characterizing the interpretability-performance trade-off.

Predicting rare extreme events such as wildfires from meteorological data requires models that remain reliable under evolving environmental conditions. This problem is inherently long-tailed: wildfire events are rare but high-impact, while most observations correspond to non-fire conditions, causing standard learning objectives to underemphasize the minority class (fire) that matters most. In addition, models trained on historical distributions often fail under distribution shifts, exhibiting degraded performance in new environments. To this end, we propose Environment-Adaptive Preference Optimization (EAPO), a framework that adapts prediction to the target environment with long-tail distribution. Given a new input distribution, we first construct distribution-aligned datasets via $k$-nearest neighbor retrieval. We then perform a hybrid fine-tuning procedure on this local manifold, combining supervised learning with preference optimization, as well as emphasizing on rare extreme events. EAPO refines decision boundaries while avoiding conflicting signals from heterogeneous training data. We evaluate EAPO on a real-world wildfire prediction task with environmental shifts. EAPO achieves robust performance (ROC-AUC 0.7310) and improves detection in extreme regimes, demonstrating its effectiveness in dynamic wildfire prediction systems.

We present the Spatial Adapter, a parameter-efficient post-hoc layer that equips any frozen first-stage predictor with a structured spatial representation of its residual field and an induced closed-form spatial covariance. The adapter operates as a cascade second stage on residuals, jointly learning a spatially regularized orthonormal basis and per-sample scores via a tractable mini-batch ADMM procedure, without modifying any first-stage parameter. Because the first-stage parameters are frozen, the adapter does not retrain the backbone; its role is to supply a compressed distributional summary of the residual field. Smoothness, sparsity, and orthogonality together turn a generic low-rank factorization into an identifiable spatial representation whose induced residual covariance admits a closed-form low-rank-plus-noise estimator; the effective rank is determined data-adaptively by spectral thresholding, while the nominal rank K is an optimization-side upper bound only. This covariance enables kriging-style spatial prediction at unobserved locations, with plug-in uncertainty quantification as a secondary downstream use. Across synthetic data, Weather2K for spatial-holdout prediction, and GWHD patch grids as a basis-transferability diagnostic, the adapter recovers residual spatial structure when paired with frozen first stages from linear models to deep spatiotemporal and vision backbones; the added representation uses fewer than K(N+T) parameters alongside a compact residual-trend network.

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often exhibiting limited cross-domain transferability. We analyze this bottleneck through spatial and temporal entropy measures, which are used as diagnostic indicators of spatiotemporal complexity mismatch rather than as guarantees that entropy alignment alone yields better forecasting. Empirically, larger mismatch is often accompanied by higher prediction uncertainty, especially under a fixed model-capacity budget. Guided by this diagnostic, we propose a scalable, adaptive framework that harmonizes spatial and temporal feature representations. Spatial dimensionality is compressed via low-rank matrix embedding to preserve essential structure, while an extended temporal horizon captures long-range dependencies and mitigates cumulative errors arising from temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on urban traffic, meteorological, and epidemic datasets demonstrate substantial accuracy gains and broad applicability across the evaluated domains, suggesting that the framework is promising for a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks beyond the current study. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance.

Existing self-supervised learning (SSL) methods primarily learn object-invariant representations but often neglect the spatial structure and relationships among object parts. To address this limitation, we introduce Spatial Prediction (SP), a spatially aware pretext regression task that predicts the relative position and scale between a pair of disentangled local views from the same image. By modeling part-to-part relationships in a continuous geometric space, SP encourages representations to capture fine-grained spatial dependencies beyond invariant categorical semantics, thereby learning the compositional structure of visual scenes. SP is implemented as a decoupled plug-in and can be seamlessly integrated into diverse SSL frameworks. Extensive experiments show consistent improvements across image recognition, fine-grained classification, semantic segmentation, and depth estimation, as well as substantial gains in out-of-distribution robustness for object recognition. To evaluate spatial reasoning, we introduce (1) a position and scale prediction task on image patch pairs and (2) a jigsaw understanding task requiring patch reordering and recognition after reconstruction. Strong performance on these tasks indicates improved spatial structure and geometric awareness. Overall, explicitly modeling spatial information provides an effective inductive bias for SSL, leading to more structured representations and better generalization. Code and models will be released.

Reliable wildfire spread prediction is vital for risk-aware emergency planning, yet most deep learning models lack principled uncertainty quantification (UQ). Further, for boundary-sensitive cases like wildfire spread, evaluating models with global metrics alone is often insufficient. To shift the focus of UQ evaluation toward a more operationally relevant approach, the Fire-Centered Evaluation Region (FCER) framework is introduced as a spatially conditioned protocol to characterize UQ within critical fire zones. Using FCER, an Ensemble is compared against an distilled single-pass student model on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The student model demonstrates comparable calibration and complementary uncertainty ranking in boundary-relevant regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/jonasvilhofunk/WildfireUQ-FCER

Recently, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) or Transformer architecture based models have been proposed to overcome the limitations of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based models in spatiotemporal prediction. These models prevent the inefficiency of parallelization limitation due to the sequential properties and stacked error due to the recursive method, and show high performance. Novertheless, there are still some challengies. First, CNN based models have difficulty considering global information due to the local properties of the kernel, and their performance is limited. In addition, information is mixed because the time axis is combined with the channel axis of the image for processing. Models based on Transformer architecture have high complexity due to the self-attention calcuation and take a long training time. In this paper, we propose a new structure model called CNN-based Multi-In-Multi-Out model for Efficient Spatiotemporal Prediction (MIMO-ESP) to overcome these limitations. MIMO-ESP considers global information and significantly improves complexity by configuring a Transformer architecture based on CNN. In addition, it treats the time axis as an independent axis without combining it, and effectively considers spatiotemporal information together by applying dilation. This structure makes MIMO-ESP efficient and high performance. Extensive experiment results on three promising benchmark datasets which including video, traffic, and precipitation prediction tasks demonstrate that the usefulness of MIMO-ESP due to the achieved competitive efficiency while outperforming existing models. Furthermore, the ablation study results demonstrate the usefulness of the components of MIMO-ESP, emphasizing the potential of the proposed approaches.

Predictive policing systems that allocate patrol resources based solely on predicted crime risk can unintentionally amplify racial disparities through feedback driven data bias. We present FASE, a Fairness Aware Spatiotemporal Event Graph framework, which integrates spatiotemporal crime prediction with fairness constrained patrol allocation and a closed loop deployment feedback simulator. We model Baltimore as a graph of 25 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas and use 139,982 Part 1 crime incidents from 2017 to 2019 at hourly resolution, producing a sparse feature tensor. The prediction module combines a spatiotemporal graph neural network with a multivariate Hawkes process to capture spatial dependencies and self exciting temporal dynamics. Outputs are modeled using a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial distribution, suitable for overdispersed and zero heavy crime counts. The model achieves a validation loss of 0.4800 and a test loss of 0.4857. Patrol allocation is formulated as a fairness constrained linear optimization problem that maximizes risk weighted coverage while enforcing a Demographic Impact Ratio constraint with deviation bounded by 0.05. Across six simulated deployment cycles, fairness remains within 0.9928 to 1.0262, and coverage ranges from 0.876 to 0.936. However, a persistent detection rate gap of approximately 3.5 percentage points remains between minority and non minority areas. This result shows that allocation level fairness constraints alone do not eliminate feedback induced bias in retraining data, highlighting the need for fairness interventions across the full pipeline.

Optimal sensor placement (OSP) is critical for efficient, accurate monitoring, control, and inference in complex physical systems. We propose a machine-learning-based feature attribution (FA) framework to identify OSP for target predictions. FA quantifies input contributions to a model output; however, it struggles with highly correlated input data often encountered in practical applications for OSP. To address this, we propose a Correlation-Assisted Attribution Framework (CAAF), which introduces a clustering step on the candidate sensor locations before performing FA to reduce redundancy and enhance generalizability. We first illustrate the core principles of the proposed framework through a series of validation cases, then demonstrate its effectiveness in realistic dynamical systems such as structural health monitoring, airfoil lift prediction, and wall-normal velocity estimation for turbulent channel flow. The results show that the CAAF outperforms alternative approaches that typically struggle due to the presence of nonlinear dynamics, chaotic behavior, and multi-scale interactions, and enables the effective application of FA for identifying OSP in real-world environments.

Invariant prediction [Peters et al., 2016] analyzes feature/outcome data from multiple environments to identify invariant features - those with a stable predictive relationship to the outcome. Such features support generalization to new environments and help reveal causal mechanisms. Previous methods have primarily tackled this problem through hypothesis testing or regularized optimization. Here we develop Bayesian Invariant Prediction (BIP), a probabilistic model for invariant prediction. BIP encodes the indices of invariant features as a latent variable and recover them by posterior inference. Under the assumptions of Peters et al. [2016], the BIP posterior targets the true invariant features. We prove that the posterior is consistent and that greater environment heterogeneity leads to faster posterior contraction. To handle many features, we design an efficient variational approximation called VI-BIP. In simulations and real data, we find that BIP and VI-BIP are more accurate and scalable than existing methods for invariant prediction.

In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package. We here extend this previous work in two key ways, focusing on data from Japan as a large dataset is necessary in order to allow for the training of a deep learning (autoencoder) model. First, we move from whole-region prediction (considering, for each candidate event, the likelihood of an event M $\geq$ 5.0 anywhere in the region in the next 15 days) to localised predictions in which both the region of feature computation and the region of prediction are restricted to a circle of radius 24 km around the candidate event, and we show that performance remains excellent, similar to our previous whole-region study for the same area. Second, we here couple this proven set of SSFs, based on one-dimensional (catalogue) data, with a novel feature based on magnitude-stratified two-dimensional seismic maps, obtained by training a VQ-VAE model to reproduce such maps as output and identifying a measure of its error in doing so with anomalies in magnitude distribution reflecting a localised build-up of crustal stress. We show that while localised prediction based only on a set of SSFs can be effective, with test AUC values as high as those obtained in the case of Japan in our previous whole-region study, the inclusion of the new natively-spatial VQ-VAE-derived feature, top-ranked by SHAP analysis, both improves prediction and points toward a new approach that might allow computationally time-demanding traditional seismic features to be entirely set aside.