Theory of Mind
Also known as ToM
Momentum
5 papers in the last four weeks, up 67% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.
Latest papers 53
Current image-to-video models achieve visual realism and physical plausibility, but reasoning about mental states remains unexplored. Actions are driven by belief, desire, and perception, requiring inference beyond explicit instructions. We introduce MindWorldBench to evaluate mental-state-conditioned video generation. We formalize this as mental-state-to-behavior reasoning, where models generate actions from a world state and latent variables without explicit action prompts. MindWorldBench utilizes Zero-Action Prompting and a counterfactual design with 744 prompts to isolate the causal effects of mental states. An automated pipeline evaluates video quality, commonsense plausibility, and mental-state consistency. Evaluations of 11 models show that despite visual fidelity and physical reasoning, models fail to align behaviors with latent mental states. We identify a failure mode, termed Omniscient Bias, where models default to the objective world state rather than human's subjective belief. These results demonstrate a disconnect between visual generation and cognitive reasoning, suggesting a need for explicit mental-state modeling in video generation systems. Project website: https://richard2049-lee.github.io/MindWorldBench/
Mind or Message? Auditing Theory of Mind in Multi-Agent Social Simulation
Language model agents are increasingly used to simulate social interaction, and the resulting transcripts read as though the agents understand one another. We ask whether that appearance rests on a model of the partner's mind or on the surface record of what the partner said. We build a social simulation in which both questions have exact answers: 40 multi-issue negotiations whose hidden preference weights and whose full Pareto frontier are known by construction. Two model families negotiate across 160 dyads, every transcript is frozen before any measurement, and 2880 counterfactual probes then hold the evidence byte identical while moving one factor at a time: the reader's own stake, the partner's tone, an identity label, and the order of recursion. The agents are socially fluent and economically poor. They reach agreement in 96.2% of dyads with 0 protocol failures, yet only 0.7% of deals land on the Pareto frontier, they leave 20.5% of the available joint value unclaimed, and they miss the one issue on which their interests are perfectly aligned in 76.6% of deals; on the frontier and on that aligned issue, a package drawn at random from the set both sides would accept does as well. The probes locate the failure. Swapping only the reader's own payoff sheet, while the partner's words and offers stay identical, moves the inferred top priority by 15.0 percentage points, which is egocentric projection rather than inference, while a tone rewrite moves it by 5.3 percentage points and an identity label by 0.0. Most tellingly, an agent predicts what its partner believes about it 72.5% of the time while that partner's belief is itself correct only 51.2% of the time: the agents track the conversation far better than they track the mind behind it.
Verifiable Social Reasoning for LLM Assistants
LLM assistants are widely used for daily social advice, yet evaluating their social reasoning in such consultation settings remains challenging since (i) it requires setups where the assistant learns about social situations from subjective user narratives, and (ii) social properties, such as others' intentions, typically lack verifiable ground truth. To address these challenges, we introduce Fuse, a multi-agent simulation framework for studying user-mediated social reasoning. In Fuse, a target agent with a hidden motive interacts with other agents including one representing the user, who then consults the evaluated assistant to infer the target's motive, providing verifiable ground truth by construction. Simulation faithfulness is validated through a human study with 24k annotations. We apply Fuse to 12 LLMs and demonstrate its analytical utility by systematically isolating key factors, showing that (i) user mediation compounds the inherent difficulty of social reasoning; (ii) LLMs exhibit systematic sensitivity to biased user framing; (iii) models can require more details than humans need to reach a correct prediction; and (iv) longer conversations do not always improve performance despite providing opportunities for clarifying questions. We open-source Fuse and a dataset with 21k examples.
ToMAS: A Pilot Failure-Grounded Theory-of-Mind Benchmark from Multi-Agent LLM Failures
LLM-based multi-agent systems can fail even when communication succeeds because agents do not correctly track their peers' roles, knowledge, or intentions. We investigate whether such inter-agent misalignment cases, labelled FC2 in MAST-Data, can be converted into functional partner-state reasoning items. ToMAS applies four explicit convertibility criteria to diagnosed execution traces. A full conversion pass over 242 eligible non-AG2 training traces produced 39 CLEAN items. In an 18-trace reliability pilot, two annotators achieved 94.4% raw agreement and Cohen's kappa = 0.92. We then used the converted items as binary rewards in a small-scale GRPO feasibility experiment with Qwen2.5-1.5B. On a 28-item held-out Magentic GAIA diagnostic, every evaluated condition exceeded the ROUGE-L threshold on the same 2 of 28 items. Post-hoc adapter checks show why: under the learning rate used, the LoRA update remained numerically negligible (max abs Delta W about 7e-6), so all conditions decode identically to the untrained checkpoint. The experiment therefore does not show a training effect and cannot establish one; it reports an executable pipeline together with two limitations that any conclusive study must address: a provenance gap between the training and evaluation items, and lexical-overlap scoring. ToMAS provides a preliminary rubric and pipeline for converting diagnosed coordination failures into trainable partner-state reasoning items and identifies the requirements for a conclusive matched-domain evaluation.
Mind2Dialogue: Training Human-Aware Language Models by Simulating User Mental States
As language models become more capable, long-term collaboration in learning, reasoning, and decision-making calls for a deeper understanding of the people they serve. Yet training such human-aware language models faces a fundamental supervision gap because current datasets for LLM assistant training contain few if any well-informed responses explicitly grounded in users' unspoken beliefs and goals. Scaling such supervision is inherently constrained, as users' underlying states are not directly observable. We thus propose the Mind2Dialogue framework to mitigate this gap by simulating users' mental states and turning them into privileged supervision for human-aware training. Specifically, we first propose a psychology-guided simulator that preserves personal characteristics while updating mental states through interaction to generate coherent conversations. The key idea is to enforce a shared evolving mental state that drives user behavior and guides an Oracle assistant's responses. Our privileged distillation then trains models on the Oracle's well-informed responses to assist users without direct access to their mental states at deployment. Moreover, we propose to evaluate human-aware learning by combining personalization and theory of mind, examining how models understand people and act on that understanding. Training on the full Mind2Dialogue corpus improves every reported personalization metric over the corresponding Qwen, Llama, and OLMo instruction-tuned baselines, including gains of 26.6 to 40.9 percentage points in preference-following generation. The gains extend to belief and action reasoning on Qwen and Llama, beyond personalized assistance. Looking forward, Mind2Dialogue makes user simulation a foundation for genuine AI collaborators that understand beliefs and intentions behind people's words and support their long-term goals across education, work, and everyday life.
Agents That Model Agents: Five Principles Toward a Theory of Mind for 6G Networks
Future 6G networks will rely on Large Language Model (LLM) agents to manage the Radio Access Network (RAN). However, current architectures assume inter-agent messages convey objective facts. A message is instead a \emph{trace} of the sender's reasoning: it carries a subjective conclusion, so a syntactically valid report can propagate an AI hallucination and trigger a cascading outage invisible to protocol validation. Reading such a trace requires a Theory of Mind (ToM)---before acting, the receiver must model what the peer believes, and what a peer in that position should have believed. Modeling these interactions as cognitive channels on a cellular sheaf, we obtain a unified framework for resilient multi-agent systems, from which five design principles emerge: (i) a message is evidence of the sender's hidden reasoning; (ii) trust is a continuous cognitive Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR)---asserted precision over deviation from the modeled peer belief; (iii) network-wide consistency and resistance to hallucination contagion are computable via the sheaf's Laplacian; (iv) peer-modeling must halt at exactly two levels to conserve compute and survive mutual information decay; and (v) credible capacity is bounded by operational goal alignment, not link bandwidth. A signaling-storm study on locally deployed 1B-parameter telecom language models validates it: cognitive SNR isolates a hallucinating peer that three of its four neighbors agree with, where a divergence gate ranks every wrong peer above the right one; only depth two ToM recovers the correct action; and the spectral gap decides whether a topology reaches consistency inside the near-real-time budget.
Inverse Theory of Mind Modeling for Content Recommendation: From Web Browsing to Dynamic Intelligent Interfaces
Modern recommender systems treat observed actions as reliable proxies for user preferences, yet interactions often reflect exploration or comparison rather than stable preference expression. As interfaces evolve from static layouts toward generative UIs and immersive extended reality (XR), the need for deeper, modality-agnostic user understanding grows: these adaptive environments must decide not only what to present but where, when, how prominently, and most importantly why a user acts. We propose an Inverse Theory of Mind (IToM) pipeline that reasons backward from observed interactions to infer the beliefs, preferences, and decision-making traits that explain behavior. The pipeline reconstructs each user's decision context, including what was chosen and what alternatives were available, applies LLM-driven counterfactual reasoning to produce evidence-grounded natural-language belief statements, and synthesizes these beliefs through multi-hypothesis abductive inference into a structured user persona. We evaluate on the OPeRA dataset against ground-truth personality assessments, attitudinal surveys, and interview-based personas across four tasks: next action prediction, shopping attitude alignment, Big Five personality inference, and held-out category prediction. Results show that inferred personas match or exceed ground-truth personas and that multi-hypothesis reasoning is essential for accurate personality prediction. We further demonstrate cross-modal transferability with a persona-driven spatial banking application on VisionOS.
Avalon-ToM-Bench: Evaluating Fine-Grained Theory of Mind via Asymmetric Game Mechanics
Theory of Mind (ToM) is essential for agent interactions, yet existing evaluations either rely on static scenarios that oversimplify mental-state reasoning or interactive settings that provide limited diagnostic insight. We present Avalon-ToM-Bench, a fine-grained benchmark that operationalizes ToM through the asymmetric-information mechanics of The Resistance: Avalon. Rather than evaluating end-to-end gameplay, it decomposes ToM into a 22 taxonomy -- epistemic versus motivational reasoning crossed with inference versus action -- using human-crafted, perspective-constrained queries. Benchmarking 28 LLMs reveals three insights: 1) Reasoning, not knowledge. Models show strong game-rule comprehension but markedly weaker ToM abilities, isolating failures to social reasoning rather than missing domain knowledge. 2) Expression, not representation. Mechanistic analyses via linear probing and activation steering show that models frequently represent correct mental-state inferences in their hidden states but fail to express them during generation -- linear probes recover 77-82% accuracy versus 62-70% from the models' own chain-of-thought. 3) Policy, not deliberation. Dedicated reasoning training yields substantial improvements whereas test-time chain-of-thought provides only marginal gains (+11.0 versus +1.1 points on average), suggesting that robust ToM depends on a learned reasoning policy rather than increased inference-time deliberation.
Evaluating Theory of Mind in Reasoning Models: Robustness over Reasoning
Large language models (LLMs) have recently shown strong performance on Theory of Mind (ToM) tests, prompting debate about the nature and validity of the underlying capabilities. At the same time, reasoning-oriented LLMs trained via reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards have demonstrated notable improvements across a range of benchmarks. In this work, we examine the behavior of such reasoning models in ToM tasks using novel adaptations of machine psychological experiments together with results from established benchmarks. We observe that reasoning models consistently exhibit increased robustness to prompt variations and task perturbations. Our analysis suggests these gains come at least partly from models being more robust at reaching the correct answer under prompt and task variation. We read this as evidence for a robustness-based account rather than for a new ToM-specific ability.
PICTURE: Enhancing Theory-of-Mind in Large Language Models by Revealing, Not Hiding, Characters' Lack of Knowledge
Simulating human-like Theory of Mind (ToM) has been a longstanding problem in natural language processing (NLP). To address this, existing works introduce a reasoning step of event hiding (a.k.a. perspective-taking), where events unknown to a character are removed before question answering. However, resorting to event hiding for ToM reasoning presents a performance degradation issue due to the strict output format constraints involved in event hiding. To mitigate this issue, we propose generating perspective-taking outputs as free-form explanations without event hiding, but this poses a notable yet underexplored challenge: LLMs need to inhibit responses to events unknown to characters, because the absence of event hiding exposes LLMs to these events throughout reasoning. To address this challenge, we hypothesize and empirically verify that LLMs can achieve such inhibition if a character's lack of knowledge about events is made explicit during reasoning. Based on this finding, we introduce PICTURE, a new prompting method that enables LLMs to generate a character's lack of knowledge within free-form Chain-of-Thought (CoT). Experimental results show that PICTURE outperforms existing prompting methods by an average of 7.3% on false-belief tasks.
Cross-Task Dissociation in Frontier Vision-Language Model Theory of Mind
Do frontier vision-language models present a coherent Theory-of-Mind (ToM) profile across tasks, matching the same human reference group, or does that profile fragment from one paradigm to the next? We evaluate a shared panel of nine frontier VLMs on two psychology-derived benchmarks: the Keysar Director Task (visual perspective-taking under egocentric interference) and the Frith-Happé animated triangles scored with the Castelli rubric (intention attribution from pure motion). On the Director Task, without chain-of-thought, the panel makes the egocentric error on 78% of trials like children rather than adults; variation is substantial across models, and reasoning rescues several models. On the triangles, the panel under-attributes intention: its ToM profile sits more than three times closer to the high-functioning-autistic-adult (HF-ASD) mean than to the typical-development-adult (TD) mean, while Goal-Directed and Random stay near TD. No model is nearest TD on both tasks; the model that looks adult-like on the Director Task falls on the HF-ASD side on the triangles, and the most TD-like model on the triangles is child-like on the Director Task. We report group-level descriptions, not diagnostic labels for any model.
Using Theory of Mind to Arbitrate between Social and Non-social Learning
Social learning is a powerful mechanism through which agents learn about the world from others. However, humans sometimes choose direct experience over social learning, which can carry time and cognitive resource costs. How do people balance social and non-social learning? We propose a Rational Mentalizing model of the decision to engage in social learning. This model estimates the utility of social learning by reasoning about another agent's goal and the informativeness of their future actions. It then weighs the utility of social learning against the utility of non-social learning. Using a novel game where players choose between observing other agents or exploring the environment, we show that the Rational Mentalizing model can quantitatively capture human trade-offs between these strategies. These findings suggest that selective social learning is guided by 'Theory of Mind' in the service of utility maximization.
Synchronizing Beliefs with Second-Order Theory-of-Mind in Human-Autonomy Teams (Extended Version)
Comparative feedback, asking people which of two behaviors they prefer, has become a standard way to align robot and agent behavior with human intent when the reward itself cannot be specified directly. Preference-based reward learning typically casts the human teacher as a passive oracle answering learner-generated queries. We argue this forfeits the teacher's defining advantage: knowledge of the objective. A teacher who knows the target can construct training examples more efficiently than any learner-driven acquisition strategy, an advantage that widens as the reward's feature dimension grows. However, exploiting this advantage requires an accurate model of what the learner currently knows. We therefore recast preference learning as a human-autonomy team problem coupling two behavioral models: the teacher maintains a model of the learner to design an informative curriculum, and the learner maintains a second-order model of the teacher's model, emitting structured preference constraints (understanding statements) that keep the teacher's model of the learner synchronized. In simulation, an informed teacher outperforms learner-led selection; teacher-model drift under alternating teachers erodes this advantage; and understanding statements repair it, with second-order (ToM-2) statements outperforming mean-belief statements when the teacher's error about the learner is concentrated in a particular direction rather than spread evenly.
Mental World Modeling
World models enable a predictive substrate for planning and action, yet existing formulations merely answer a physical question: what/where it is, and how will it evolve. Human behavior, however, is driven by hidden mental state (what a person believes, wants, intends, feels, and considers socially permissible), so a model that tracks the physical scene but not what each agent knows and believes about it predicts the wrong action for the right-looking scene. We formulate Mental World Modeling (MWM), a generic theoretical framework that makes mental variables core components of a world model rather than posthoc rationales: MWM aintains a coupled physical-mental world state, renders a target-specific partial observation, and simulates how candidate actions jointly update both components. We instantiate the framework in MENTIS, a training-free and fully inspectable baseline that decomposes the process into state parsing, target-observation generation, action decomposition, coupled physical and mental transition, and branch-level value evaluation. On a manually constructed, quality-controlled dataset of situated decision scenarios spanning text, image, and sounding-video stories, experiments with 8 modern LLM-based world models demonstrate that explicitly modeling the mental state is essential for predicting human decisions. Deeper analyses further expose the bottlenecks of current mental world modeling. We expect MWM as a next stage of world modeling, from simulating physical scenes to simulating the minds that act in them.
Zing: Social Mind for LLMs
As large language models move from isolated task solving toward long-term service in human environments, they require social intelligence: the ability to infer mental states, track social relations, reason over norms, and adapt behavior under context. This report presents Zhijing, an integrated framework for measuring, internalizing, and grounding social intelligence. For measurement, we introduce SoMBench, a psychology-grounded benchmark spanning 3 primary dimensions, 17 secondary dimensions, and 71 task paradigms. It controls question format, narrative perspective, and context length across 284 shared scenarios and 3,481 expert-verified instances. Evaluation of 20 representative LLMs reveals substantial headroom: the best model achieves only 72.08% overall accuracy, and none of the 17 secondary dimensions reaches the 90% near-ceiling band. For internalization, we develop Zing, a diagnosis-driven training recipe combining supervised fine-tuning, on-policy distillation, and rubric-based reinforcement learning. Across five social-cognition benchmarks, Zing consistently outperforms its base models, with Zing-27B-Stage2 achieving the best average score and Zing-32B-Stage2 remaining competitive with DeepSeek-V4-Pro. For deployment-time grounding, we build Actio, a harness-controlled inference architecture that routes four typed supports into reasoning: PRISM for procedural guidance, Starling for runtime mental-state representation, SAGE for reusable experience, and gated RAG for external social and normative knowledge. Across five base models and three benchmarks, the full harness improves 14 of 15 model-benchmark pairs and is best or tied for best in 8, demonstrating the effectiveness of typed runtime support. Together, these results show that socially intelligent LLMs require coordinated advances in evaluation, parametric internalization, and deployment-time grounding.
MeetingToM: Evaluating Multimodal LLMs on Theory-of-Mind Reasoning in Multi-Party Meetings
Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer other's beliefs, intentions, and states of knowledge, is central to social interaction, yet remains challenging for current Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), especially in multi-party meetings where cues are distributed across speech and behavior. Existing multimodal ToM benchmarks mainly focus on video-grounded question answering over overt, externally verifiable signals, and provide limited coverage of latent social states and group dynamics. We introduce MeetingToM, a benchmark for complex social behavior reasoning in naturalistic multi-party meetings. MeetingToM targets meeting-specific phenomena such as \textbf{pseudo-consensus}, where apparent agreement masks private dissent under social pressure. The benchmark is hierarchically organized to evaluate ToM at increasing levels of social granularity, including (i) subject-level mental state prediction, (ii) dyadic-level addressee understanding, and (iii) group-level consensus reasoning. We provide a unified evaluation protocol and conduct systematic analyses of representative MLLMs, revealing persistent limitations in integrating non-verbal cues, inferring hidden attitudes, and distinguishing genuine consensus from pseudo-consensus. Our results highlight key challenges and establish MeetingToM as a testbed for advancing meeting-grounded ToM in multimodal models.
Beyond Sally-Anne: Evaluating Theory of Mind in LLMs using Epistemic Schelling Points
Text-based evaluations of Theory of Mind (ToM) in Large Language Models (LLMs) often involve cognitive tests akin to the Sally-Anne task that can be gamed due to exposure to relevantly similar tasks in pre-training and do not obviously test models' functional ToM abilities in ways that generalize to naturalistic settings. To address these issues, we introduce the Epistemic Asymmetry Schelling Task (EAST), a two-player dialogue game designed to benchmark robust and generalizable ToM abilities. By requiring LLM-LLM dyads to independently converge on semantic Schelling points under varying states of epistemic transparency, we evaluate whether models can robustly apply ToM to achieve coordination. Our results reveal a significant capability gap in functional social reasoning, with only frontier models successfully navigating the varying epistemic demands of the tasks. Analysis of reasoning traces shows that coordination failures are primarily driven by epistemic tracking errors, such as conflating private knowledge with mutual knowledge. Despite high performance on traditional static benchmarks, our study shows that robust social reasoning and epistemic tracking remain a critical bottleneck, providing concrete targets for future LLM evaluation and development.
MafiaScope: Non-Invasive, Time-Resolved Belief Probing for LLM Agents in Social Deduction Games
An LLM agent's public behaviour reveals little about its social reasoning: an agent that votes correctly may be guessing, and an agent that lies well leaves no trace of what it actually believes. We present MafiaScope, an open testbed that turns the social deduction game Mafia into a measurement instrument for machine Theory of Mind. After every public utterance, every agent privately answers a configurable set of structured probe questions; the answers never re-enter the game and are scored automatically against the ground truth the engine knows. An interactive visualizer renders the belief trajectories: impersonate mode shows the game as one agent sees it, panels chart timeline-aligned accuracy and calibration, and counterfactual replay forks any recorded step. In a 32-game DeepSeek case study with 13{,}815 parsed probe answers, stated confidence is poorly calibrated, with expected calibration error 0.17, agents over-predict being suspected 1.5 times, and a 30-fork replay experiment walks the counterfactual replay workflow end to end. Engine, viewer and a corpus of 200+ cross-model games are released under an open licence; live demo: https://karpovilia.github.io/mafiascope/; screencast: https://vimeo.com/1208920221.
Belief-reality separation lives in routing over a shared value slot in language models
Capable language models hold what a character believes apart from what is true: told "Anna believes the cup is blue; in reality it is red," they answer blue about Anna and red about the world. Where in the computation does that separation live? We show it rests on two separable mechanisms at two positions. A generic value slot binds the attributed value. A router at the query position selects which frame, the character's belief or reality, a query reads out. Two routes fill the slot: an asserted belief, whose value the text supplies, binds in directly; a derived belief, whose value must be inferred from what the character could see, arrives by a visibility-gated lookback. A subspace trained on either route steers the other, and only the derived route depends on described visibility. The slot itself carries no belief-reality tag: intervening on it moves a reality readout as strongly as a belief one. The separation lives instead in a dissociated pair of routing subspaces, which flip a query between frames without injecting the donor's value. These results hold across three architectures, on stimuli de-confounded against theory-of-mind-benchmark shortcuts; the behavior itself emerges between 3B and 7B across five model families. This paper develops the single belief-reality axis in depth; a companion paper shows the same slot-and-router format is shared across the other non-actual contexts a sentence can open (counterfactual, fictional, temporal).
CoMind: Understanding Collaborative Human Activity from Multiple Minds and Views
Human-human collaboration is a fundamental aspect of everyday life, essential to success in a wide range of goal-directed activities from household tasks to professional teamwork. While much research has focused on modeling coordination and task execution, the cognitive processes that support such collaboration, particularly Theory of Mind (the ability to infer the mental states of others), remain difficult to study in natural settings. To address this gap, we introduce a novel egocentric and exocentric video dataset capturing real-world collaboration in cooking scenarios. The dataset integrates multi-perspective video, high-quality audio, gaze tracking, and 3D scene and object scans, with annotations for shared attention to objects, social cues and interactions between agents, as well as agent-object interactions. We establish benchmarks for Joint Attention Estimation, Socially Conditioned Object Interaction Anticipation, and Collaborative Handover Prediction, enabling research on multimodal perception, proactive assistance, and collaborative planning. By providing temporally aligned, richly annotated multimodal data, CoMind facilitates the development and evaluation of AI systems capable of modeling complex social interactions and reasoning about human behaviors in collaborative environments. Our dataset and benchmarks are made available at https://comind.ethz.ch/.
Theory of Mind and Persuasion Beyond Conversation: Assessing the Capacity of LLMs to Induce Belief States via Planning and Action
Theory of Mind (ToM) benchmarks for Large Language Models (LLMs) typically rely on passive question-answering formats, but the deployment of LLMs in increasingly agentic and autonomous forms demands new evaluations. In this paper we evaluate an agent's ability to induce specific belief states in other agents by taking actions rather than using conversational persuasion, a capability we call Non-Conversational Planning ToM (NCP-ToM). NCP-ToM is likely to be essential for many agent use-cases, including within user-assistant interactions and pedagogical contexts, but may also present manipulation or misinformation risks. Using a novel framework, NCP-ExploreToM, we subvert the conventional task structure by providing models with a set of belief state goals and requiring them to move objects or direct characters into rooms to achieve their goals. We evaluated six frontier models, including GPT-5, Gemini 2.5 Pro and the Claude 4 series, and a cohort of human participants, across 600 task instances. GPT-5 was successful on approximately 80% of tasks in the agentic setting, and was the only model to outperform human participants on our task, but was still less robust than humans across contexts. We additionally found that all models, like humans, performed better on tasks inducing true belief states than false belief states, which is a positive signal for alignment efforts. These findings highlight emerging social-reasoning capabilities in LLMs for non-conversational task completion and underscore the necessity of agentic evaluations for understanding the safety and alignment of autonomous social agents.
Developmental Trajectories of Situation Modeling and Mentalizing in Transformer Language Models
Recent work suggests that Large Language Models (LLMs) are sensitive to the belief states of agents described by text, as measured by the false belief task (FBT), yet persistent concerns of construct validity remain. We adopt a developmental perspective, tracing the pattern of mental state reasoning behavior -- and likely preconditions for this behavior -- across multiple training stages in the Olmo2 and Pythia language model suites. We find that above-chance FBT performance depends both on model size and sufficient training volume, emerges relatively late in pretraining, and is most improved by post-training interventions (SFT, DPO) in the condition most diagnostic of mentalizing (False Belief, Implicit). However, FBT performance is fragile: consistent with past work, the use of non-factive verbs (e.g., thinks) increases false belief attributions even in the True Belief condition. To contextualize these findings, we track the emergence of situation modeling: the ability to report on basic factual properties of a described scene. Situation modeling accuracy generally precedes and exceeds FBT accuracy, yet situational representations also prove surprisingly incoherent in certain respects: when asked about the knowledge states of the Antagonist agent -- who always knows the item's true location -- Olmo2 13b is consistently influenced both by the Target agent's knowledge state and the presence of non-factive verbs. Together, these results suggest that larger, sufficiently trained models build partially coherent situation models in a developmentally appropriate sequence, yet display surprising fragility -- highlighting the value of developmental and stress-testing approaches for evaluating LLM capabilities.
Triadic Werewolf: A Jester Role for Multi-Hop Theory of Mind in LLMs
Theory-of-mind evaluations of large language models typically use dyadic social-deduction games, where every observable cue points to a single hidden side, so a model with strong language priors can score well without ever simulating opponents' incentives. We extend the Werewolf game with a Jester, a third faction whose utility on peer suspicion is inverted because it wins by being voted out, so optimal play requires reasoning across three opposing utility functions. Across 60 games on GPT-4.1, DeepSeek-V3.1, and Llama-3.3-70B with Jester self-learning on and off, the Jester wins 60-70% of games while Werewolves never exceed 20%, and GPT-4.1 wolves vote the Jester out on day 1 in 60-70% of games, a strictly self-defeating action. Self-learning helps DeepSeek and Llama but hurts GPT-4.1, with the cost landing on Villagers rather than Werewolves. Only DeepSeek learns the subtle strategy of looking suspicious without looking intentionally suspicious, and it gains the most from the loop. Triadic incentive structure exposes a layer of multi-agent reasoning that dyadic deduction games leave invisible.
Radical AI Interpretability
We develop a framework for interpreting AI systems as agents, drawing on the philosophical tradition of radical interpretation and the tools of mechanistic interpretability. The core question is: given the computational facts about a system, how do we solve for its beliefs, desires, and meanings? This matters increasingly for safety. We want to be able to trust the systems we deploy, whether by understanding their goals or, more modestly, by reliably detecting deception. Interpretability researchers are building tools to read beliefs and desires off a model's internals, but there is no settled account of when such a tool has succeeded. This book supplies one. We propose criteria on both representationalist and interpretationist approaches, and tie each to tests current interpretability methods can carry out. A central lesson is that these attributions cannot be made piecemeal. Beliefs, desires, and the propositional structure they presuppose are jointly constrained, and a method that fixes one while measuring the others inherits whatever distortions that introduces. This holism becomes pressing for AI systems, which may not share the interpreter's concepts. However, it also provides leverage: a system's attitudes constrain its propositional structure, that structure constrains which attitudes can be attributed, and mechanistic interpretability can help us measure both.
A Causal Model of Theory of Mind in Conflict for Artificial Intelligence
Theory of mind (ToM), the capacity to ascribe mental states to others and use those ascriptions for prediction and inference, is widely assumed to be essential for effective human-machine integration. Existing AI-ToM models address \emph{how} to mentalize, but leave the question of when largely unaddressed. The central question is: under what situational and agent-level conditions is ToM engagement causally warranted in conflict? This paper presents a structural causal model formalized as a directed acyclic graph (DAG), treating ToM as a mechanism activated by situational and agent-level conditions rather than as an always-on capacity. The model specifies four exogenous variables capturing situational and agent-level conditions, five endogenous mediators, and a mechanistic ToM node producing engagement states through three distinct causal pathways: a tractability pathway, a reasoning-depth pathway, and an enabling-cause pathway. The primary outcome is epistemic accuracy, which decouples social reasoning from behavioral policy and generalizes across social phenomena beyond conflict. The framework gives AI systems a principled, resource-rational decision procedure for mentalizing, with implications for efficiency, trust, and the development of robust artificial social intelligence. Simulation validation, empirical human-machine teaming studies, and ethical considerations arising from conflict-optimized mentalizing are discussed.
Self-Driving Negotiator: An interactive, verifiable benchmark for social negotiation and theory of mind under hidden intent
Autonomous driving is full of tiny social negotiations: a driver presses forward, another yields, a pedestrian fakes toward the curb, or a lane vehicle chooses whether to open a merge gap. Such interactions require inferring hidden intent from behavior under partial observability and then acting safely and efficiently. Existing autonomous-driving language benchmarks mostly focus on perception, visual question answering, or open-loop planning, while existing language-agent negotiation benchmarks typically make the negotiation explicit in text. Self-Driving Negotiator bridges the gap between the two: a text-only, multi-turn, procedurally generated environment for measuring implicit social coordination in driving. Agents generate specific driving actions. Reward and diagnostics are computed from the privileged simulator state, not from the explanation of the model. This report covers task design, reward and anti-gaming invariants, validated scenarios, non-LLM baselines, and a six-model inference leaderboard. Current models are far removed from the scripted expert. The best average success rate across three scenarios is 0.68; contested merge is statistically flat across models; and difficulty tiers separate cue-following from true wait-for-commitment behavior.
The Theory of Mind Utility: Formal Specification of a Mentalizing Mechanism
Inferring others' beliefs requires more than reading surface signals; it requires tracking who told them what, in what order, and how credibly. The Theory of Mind Utility (ToM-U) formalizes this epistemic state inference problem at the computational level of analysis, specifying what mentalizing computes and why without commitment to algorithmic or neural implementation. ToM-U achieves this by constructing Local Epistemic World Models (LEWMs) -- directed typed graphs that represent agents, state nodes, and the epistemic relationships among them -- and evaluating discrete candidate LEWMs against observed behavior until one achieves sufficient confidence. Five formal definitions specify the LEWM structure, agent node properties including ordered information access history, a bounded proliferation mechanism for recursive mentalizing, three inference procedures, and a residue function that captures the structured trace left by failed mentalizing attempts. ToM-U differs from Bayesian Theory of Mind and adjacent formal accounts, which presuppose rather than derive belief states, and from simulation theory and theory-theory, which lack a formal apparatus for epistemic state inference. The architecture generates directional, falsifiable predictions about mentalizing failure that follow from structural properties of the model rather than auxiliary assumptions, and positions ToM-U as a domain-agnostic mechanism upstream of goal inference and other downstream social cognitive processes.
Mind the Perspective: Let's Reason Recursively for Theory of Mind
Theory of Mind (ToM) reasoning requires inferring agents' beliefs from partial and asymmetric observations, which remains an open challenge for LLMs. Existing prompting-based approaches improve ToM reasoning through observable-event filtering or temporal belief chains, without explicitly modeling nested beliefs. We introduce RecToM, an inference-time framework for ToM reasoning that models nested beliefs via recursive perspective construction. RecToM constructs each character perspective from the preceding character perspective along the character chain specified by the question, reducing higher-order belief questions to actual-world questions within the final constructed perspective. We further provide a KD45 analysis showing that RecToM's perspective construction induces a well-formed belief modality beyond simple event filtering. Experiments on ToM benchmarks, including Hi-ToM, Big-ToM, and FanToM, across multiple LLM backbones show that RecToM consistently outperforms recent advanced approaches, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Notably, RecToM reaches 100% accuracy on Hi-ToM with GPT-5.4 and Qwen3.5, a benchmark requiring higher-order ToM reasoning.
From Shortcuts to Reasoning: Robust Post-Training of Theory of Mind with Reinforcement Learning
Theory of Mind (ToM) is a must-acquire skill for modern foundation model systems to operate effectively and safely in the real world. Recent works have explored honing ToM via post-training; however, we show that such progress is confounded by a pervasive "shortcut" issue: tasks can reach up to 99% accuracy by simply exploiting spurious causal correlations, leading to a false sense of ToM. Motivated by this, we first develop a framework to systematically examine ToM datasets for shortcuts and provide guidance for future development. We find that questions reducible to pure state tracking, such as "belief," are especially shortcut-prone compared to mind questions, such as "intention," where reasoning beyond tracking is required. Using four shortcut-free datasets across three ToM contexts, we then comprehensively study whether Reinforcement Fine-Tuning with verifiable rewards and explicit reasoning chains, called Thinking-RFT, elevates ToM beyond Supervised Fine-Tuning, or SFT. Our key findings are as follows. First, Thinking-RFT effectively improves ToM in all scenarios, with a 6% improvement over SFT, particularly in complex higher-order reasoning, with a 10% improvement over SFT, and multimodal cases, with a 7% improvement over SFT. It also generalizes notably better to unseen domains and higher-order queries while being more robust to counterfactuals. Second, ToM benefits specifically from the joint effect of reasoning and RL: Thinking-RFT outperforms Non-Thinking-RFT by 7% on average. Third, RFT works by learning to ground its reasoning on anchor cues, such as keywords and state changes, that correspond to causal factors. We believe our study is useful for developing effective and robust ToM post-training datasets and advancing critical ToM capabilities.
Resonant Minds: Closed-Loop Social Avatars with Theory of Mind
Creating lifelike digital humans with genuine social intelligence requires unifying cognitive reasoning and multimodal generation within a coherent framework. Current approaches treat these as separate tasks: Large Language Models excel at dialogue but lack embodied expression, while diffusion-based talking head models achieve visual fidelity but ignore social cognition. To bridge this gap, we propose a closed-loop dual-agent framework integrating perception, social reasoning, and expression into a continuous interaction cycle. The perception module analyzes partners' multimodal behaviors from video, while the social reasoning module infers hidden mental states through Theory of Mind and selects responses via an ensemble mechanism. The expression module then generates emotion-controllable videos that jointly synthesize speaker speech and facial expressions with listener reactive behaviors, capturing bidirectional dynamics absent in prior work. We further construct a hierarchical Persona-Scenario dataset with psychologically grounded personas and private social goals to support evaluation under information asymmetry. Experiments on this dataset demonstrate competitive or superior performance on both dialogue quality and video generation metrics. Notably, our method surpasses even the full-information Script mode on key dialogue quality dimensions, suggesting that explicit mental state inference under uncertainty can elicit more thoughtful dialogue than unrestricted information access. Project page: https://resonantminds.github.io/.