Disasters

Disaster-risk-reduction archives describe hazard events in prose that databases such as EM-DAT (Delforge et al., 2025) cannot ingest directly. We present an LLM pipeline that generates candidate georeferenced event records using a controlled hazard vocabulary and fixed schema, retaining evidence for review. Applied to 10,000 documents from PreventionWeb, the knowledge hub managed by UNDRR, it produced 3,572 records from 1,913 documents across 24 hazard types and resolved 81% of location mentions to OpenStreetMap geometries. On 171 human-positive document windows from a stratified 217-document reference set, GPT-5 achieved 86.0% pooled attribute $F_1$, versus 44.2% for the spaCy-gazetteer baseline. Evaluation pools hazard families, location strings, and event years within documents, without assessing their assignment to individual events. GPT-5.4 ranked highest among ten LLMs (86.6% $F_1$). Verbatim evidence occurrence was 72.0% for GPT-5 and 47.2% for GPT-5.4, measuring textual traceability without establishing attribute support. We report production failure modes and automated label and location-rule compliance checks. Prompts, schema, and outputs will be released for adaptation to national reporting archives.

Crisis sentiment analysis is especially challenging for low-resource languages such as Bangla, where language, context, and public reaction shift rapidly. We introduce UNRESTSENT200K, a Bangla crisis sentiment dataset with approximately 200K Facebook and YouTube comments from the July-August 2024 Bangladesh uprising. The dataset covers five event-aligned phases, from early escalation and internet blackout to regime transition and a later flood crisis. Each comment is linked to its parent post, enabling evaluation with and without discourse context. All comments are annotated through a fully human process involving 14 native Bangla-speaking annotators and senior validation, achieving substantial agreement (kappa = 0.73, alpha = 0.71) and 94.2% blind-audit agreement. We benchmark fine-tuned encoders, prompted LLMs, and LoRA-tuned LLMs. Results show that parent-post context consistently improves performance, while temporal shift across phases causes large performance drops. Strong LLMs perform well, but still struggle with sarcasm, implicit political references, and phase-dependent meaning. UNRESTSENT200K provides a benchmark for studying context-aware and temporally robust sentiment analysis in low-resource crisis discourse. UNRESTSENT200K is available at https://sami0055.github.io/UNRESTSENT200K/

Rapid extraction of structured information from social media is important for humanitarian response, yet existing disaster tweet resources mainly provide document-level category labels without span-level entity annotations. We introduce HUMAID-NER, the first named entity recognition dataset built on the HumAID benchmark, containing 60,000 English disaster tweets annotated in BIO format across ten operationally motivated entity types and yielding approximately 175,000 labelled entity spans. Annotations are generated through a reproducible three-stage hybrid pipeline combining a spaCy transformer model, disaster-domain EntityRuler patterns, and structured regular expressions with priority-based overlap resolution. We also propose a joint multitask learning framework that performs disaster-specific named entity recognition and humanitarian event classification using a shared RoBERTa-large encoder. To reduce task conflict during joint training, the model uses homoscedastic uncertainty weighting with learnable task parameters and a two-stage training schedule that freezes the lower 18 of 24 encoder layers in the second stage. On the HUMAID-NER validation set, the proposed system achieves NER span micro-F1 of 0.841 and classification macro-F1 of 0.761 simultaneously. A real-time web dashboard demonstrates end-to-end deployment. The dataset, models, and pipeline code are released to support reproducibility and future crisis informatics research.

Traditional catastrophe (CAT) risk models rely on costly manual construction to generate extreme weather scenarios, an approach largely unchanged since the 1990s. As climate extremes intensify, this creates mounting challenges to the entire risk transfer chain. This study proposes the TAISE framework, which repurposes AI weather forecasting models to produce coherent extreme weather sequences at a fraction of traditional costs. Through self-iterative generation, the framework produces continuous global atmospheric fields from which extreme events emerge. A proof-of-concept experiment demonstrates an order-of-magnitude reduction in computational cost compared with conventional methods, while capturing temporal continuity and cross-regional correlations absent in snapshot-based approaches. These findings suggest a pathway toward democratising catastrophe risk quantification and enabling dynamic, comprehensive portfolio assessment for insurers, reinsurers, ILS fund managers and public-sector risk managers.

Progress in inclusive household surveys has strengthened socioeconomic evidence for forcibly displaced populations, providing indispensable benchmarks on living conditions and welfare. However, these surveys remain resource-intensive and periodic, while conditions can change between rounds, particularly in settings affected by fragility, conflict, and violence. More frequently updated, spatially granular complementary evidence is therefore needed to identify where socioeconomic conditions may be changing between survey rounds and to inform operational prioritization. Earth observation and machine learning offer a scalable source of spatially explicit socioeconomic information. However, tools developed for general populations have not been systematically adapted and evaluated in forced displacement settings, where living conditions, settlement patterns, and displacement impacts may differ substantially. We address this gap by adapting a multimodal spatiotemporal vision transformer, pretrained on Demographic and Health Survey data from approximately 1.2 million households across 36 African countries, to forced displacement and host community settings in South Sudan, Cameroon, and Zambia. We develop and evaluate the updated, adapted model using socioeconomic indices derived from UNHCR FDS and RMS data. Our results show that satellite-derived geospatial covariates explain up to 66% of the variation in socioeconomic outcomes in camp-intersecting grids, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37 index points, and 41% in non-camp-intersecting areas, with an MAE of 5.41. The framework complements and adds value to periodic household surveys by filling critical spatial and temporal data gaps with regularly updated, model-based socioeconomic estimates. These estimates sustain insight between survey rounds and support timely humanitarian prioritization and field verification.

Development and humanitarian organizations produce and support surveys, administrative registries, and other data resources to inform research, policy, and operations, yet systematically identifying where these datasets are referenced remains difficult. Such references are dispersed across research papers, project documents, humanitarian reports, and other unstructured text, limiting both the ability to trace data use and to identify potential gaps in data availability or dissemination. We present a weakly supervised framework for adapting dataset extraction to forced displacement and Fragile, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) documents without first constructing a large manually labeled training corpus. A lightweight model trained on general research literature generates candidate dataset mentions from unlabeled domain documents, which a frontier large language model (LLM) reviews in context, validating or rejecting candidates and correcting their extraction boundaries. The resulting annotations are supplemented with targeted synthetic and contrastive examples and used to fine-tune the lightweight model for large-scale extraction. We evaluate the resulting model on an independent gold-standard benchmark of 1,706 text passages spanning research, humanitarian, and operational documents. Across the full benchmark, the model achieves 74.1% precision and 70.5% recall at the mention level; among passages containing dataset references, precision reaches 89.5%. At the passage level, the model achieves 88.2% accuracy and 88.6% specificity in distinguishing passages with dataset references from those without them. These results demonstrate a practical approach for constructing domain-specific supervision when labeled data are limited, and provide a technical foundation for larger-scale analysis of data use and potential gaps in the displacement data landscape.

Climate change is increasing the severity and unpredictability of natural disasters. In time-critical crises such as wildfires, traditional monitoring practices remain limited by coverage, cost, and personnel risk, paving the way for autonomous and adaptive monitoring solutions. Within this context, this paper introduces D3ARC, an asynchronous distributed hierarchical framework for time-aware and reliable wildfire detection. D3ARC integrates multiple robotic agents that cooperate under uncertainty through distributed perception, shared situational awareness and coordinated actions. A remote controller asynchronously decides upon each robot's motion, while each robotic agent senses the environment and decides where and how to execute the wildfire detection. All robotic operations require time, and as time progresses, wildfires continue to spread, reducing the opportunity for early intervention. As such, all agents share a common objective: to detect a wildfire with a certain performance threshold as fast as possible and within a time limit. D3ARC integrates mechanisms for safe navigation, coverage efficiency, cooperation and reliability. It introduces a forward-looking capability that allows agents to anticipate the future by evaluating candidate strategies before execution. The framework is evaluated through realistic robotics simulations, ablation studies, and baseline comparisons, achieving an overall mission success up to 94% with 89.4% detection confidence.

Reliable disaster damage assessment requires models that provide both accurate predictions and transparent explanations. However, existing multimodal approaches are limited by scarce annotated data and insufficient evaluation of reasoning quality. This study proposes a two-stage training framework that integrates Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) within a unified data construction pipeline. From a single Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) annotation workflow, two complementary datasets are derived, namely ReasoningSet, which contains validated rationales for SFT, and PreferenceSet, which comprises paired rationales for DPO-based alignment. The framework evaluates both classification performance and explanation quality using automatic metrics, model-based scoring, and human ranking. Experimental results show that SFT improves accuracy from 73.64% to 78.29% and increases Macro-F1 by 29% compared to the baseline, while explanation quality improves by approximately 25%. Subsequent DPO alignment further enhances interpretability on the PreferenceSet. Cross-model validation on InternVL-3-8B and LLaVA-1.5-7B demonstrates the robustness and generalizability of the approach. The proposed framework improves detection of underrepresented mild damage cases, reduces high-risk misclassifications, and strengthens alignment between model reasoning and human judgment. Overall, it provides a reproducible pathway to develop reliable multimodal systems that deliver auditable, actionable disaster insights for emergency management.

Effective humanitarian response depends on the rapid synthesis of heterogeneous, high-volume information sources - a task that routinely exceeds human analytical capacity in the critical early hours of a crisis. We present a pipeline that combines structured disaster records from EM-DAT with unstructured documents from ReliefWeb and the European Media Monitor (EMM) to produce source-grounded disaster storylines and causal knowledge graphs supporting situational awareness for responders and analysts. Using Retrieval-Augmented Generation, the pipeline extracts structured storylines - tabular event profiles covering 17 fields, from severity and key drivers to child-sensitive impact indicators - and constructs causal knowledge graphs where each node and edge is enriched with citation-grounded explanatory narratives, enabling full traceability back to primary sources. We evaluate the system on three diverse crisis use cases through a human evaluation involving 9 domain expert and 9 non-expert evaluators. Results confirm high retrieval precision, strong faithfulness of extracted causal relations, and a clear expert preference for citation-grounded components over ungrounded alternatives. The pipeline is designed to scale to the full EM-DAT catalogue, with the goal of publicly releasing a narrative-enriched version of the database.

Crisis helplines assess suicide risk through structured interviews, a process that is slow and dependent on operator training and workload. Natural language processing could support risk assessment and call prioritization, but almost no work addresses Arabic-language helpline calls or operates within the privacy constraints of real helpline data. We analysed de-identified transcripts from Lebanon's National Lifeline for Emotional Support and Suicide Prevention. Audio never left the helpline: calls were transcribed on site with a speech recognition model for Levantine Arabic, and an Arabic named-entity recognition model removed identifying information locally. Only the de-identified transcripts were shared with the research team. Operators recorded the five suicidal ideation items of the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale, which we combined into two binary outcomes: at-risk and high-risk. We also machine-translated the transcripts into English, giving a paired Arabic/English comparison. On each corpus, we fine-tuned five instruction-tuned large language models alongside six transformer encoder baselines (four Arabic, two English) and evaluated all models on a held-out test set. We included 383 calls: 373 for the at-risk task (52.3% positive) and 297 for the high-risk task (30.0% positive). The best Arabic model reached a macro-F1 of 81.19 and a ROC-AUC of 90.61 on high-risk; the best English model reached 85.00 and 92.59, identifying 88.9% of high-risk calls. In both languages, high-risk calls separated more cleanly than at-risk calls, and translation to English did not reduce the best observed performance. Suicide risk can be classified from de-identified Arabic transcripts without sending audio outside the helpline. The high-risk results support further testing as an operator-facing tool; lower-severity ideation proved the harder case.

Timely post-disaster building damage assessment from satellite imagery is a critical engineering decision support task, yet it remains constrained by class imbalance, ambiguous intermediate damage states, and limited cross-event transferability. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first application of Grassmann-Plucker (GP) token mixing to computer vision and introduces two extensions for image classification: the Quantum-inspired Grassmann-Plucker (QGP) head and the Hybrid Quantum Machine Learning Grassmann-Plucker (HQML-GP) head. The GP head represents multiscale relationships among image patch tokens by encoding subspaces formed by token pairs with Plucker coordinates; QGP enriches these coordinates with amplitude-derived probability features, whereas HQML-GP incorporates expectation values generated by a simulated quantum circuit into the geometric token representation. Paired pre- and post-event image patches from the xBD tornado dataset were processed using a frozen six-channel Vision Transformer base encoder with 16 x 16-pixel patches. The three GP-based heads were compared with multilayer perceptron and Transformer baselines under identical training, checkpoint selection, and evaluation protocols. Joplin and Moore tornado samples were used for model development and seen-event testing, while Tuscaloosa was reserved for unseen-event evaluation. QGP led both test sets in accuracy and macro-F1: 83.46% and 64.50% for the seen events, and 66.45% and 52.70% for the unseen event. Although HQML-GP obtained the highest validation macro-F1 of 65.63%, it did not surpass QGP on either test set and required substantially more training time per epoch. These results establish GP token mixing as a competitive attention-free alternative to conventional Transformer-based token mixing for paired satellite image damage classification.

Rapid and reliable disaster mapping of impacted areas, damaged infrastructure, and affected populations is essential for emergency response and recovery. However, existing AI-based approaches often require extensive manual annotation, lack cross-hazard generalization, and rely on single-modal observations. To address these challenges, this paper proposes RAPIDMap, a rapid multi-agent pipeline for zero-shot interpretable disaster mapping from satellite and street-view imagery. The framework integrates four intelligent agents: Disaster Perception Agent (DPA), Image Restoration Agent (IRA), Damage Recognition Agent (DRA), and Disaster Mapping Agent (DMA). By combining remote sensing and street-view data, RAPIDMap eliminates the need for manual fine-tuning, generalizes across multiple disaster categories, and generates structured, map-ready disaster intelligence with recovery recommendations.

Large language models (LLMs) increasingly mediate legal determinations over what human rights are realized, and how. Yet, no evaluation benchmark exists to assess whether they can reason correctly about human rights law. To this end, we report our efforts to develop a robust and scalable methodology for creating HumRightsBench: the first expert-validated, scenario-based benchmark for evaluating reasoning grounded in the obligation structure of international human rights law. We adapt the IRAC framework for legal reasoning to better suit the unique reasoning patterns of human rights work (substituting P, "proposing remedies," for C, "legal conclusion," yielding IRAP) to structure our evaluation heuristics. We also produce a pilot series of authentic scenarios designed to implicate the many dimensions of real-world human rights issues and annotated by human rights lawyers and professionals across the world. Ultimately, we find that model accuracy scores range considerably across legal reasoning tasks (overall model performance ranges from 0.339 to 0.577, task min-max ranges from 0.025 to 0.774), which strongly implies that HumRightsBench is a capable instrument for advancing this emerging subfield of AI evaluations science at a critical moment in its evolution.

Data-driven health-state estimators for SiC (Silica-Carbide) power modules typically report their performance on a single accelerated-aging campaign, and how that performance transfers to a different failure mechanism is rarely tested. We benchmark five reference methods from the prognostics and condition-monitoring literature against a physics-informed NODE (Neural Ordinary Differential Equation) on two SiC power-cycling campaigns driven by structurally different failure mechanisms, solder-layer fatigue and wire-bond lift-off, under a per-module $k$-fold protocol. The NODE is evaluated under two input regimes that share the rest of the pipeline: the baseline electrical precursors and a set of cumulative thermoelectric features. Every reference method degrades on the wire-bond campaign, with average errors growing and precision decreasing with respect to their performance on the soldered campaign. The NODE fed with the cumulative features keeps its soldered-campaign metrics on both mechanisms, with differences inside the fold-to-fold variance, while the same architecture fed with the baseline precursors falls back to the reference-method cluster. The input representation contributes at least as much as the architecture to failure-mechanism transferability of a health-state estimator.

Intermodal freight networks face growing disruption risk from climate extremes that degrade multiple corridors simultaneously. To address this, we formulate freight routing as a Dec-POMDP with per-shipment action granularity and train Independent PPO (IPPO) under Centralized Training with Decentralized Execution, comparing against two heuristic baselines with privileged state access on a 15-hub network under hurricane disruption. Across 30 matched episodes, no single policy dominates: IPPO achieves the highest throughput ($+12.7\%$) and delivery rate while a capacity-aware heuristic leads on Resilience Index (RI) and delay. Under demand surge (2.9:1 capacity ratio), IPPO's RI advantage grows to $+6.4\%$, suggesting learned routing is most valuable when capacity is scarce. A Multi-Agent PPO (MAPPO) variant collapses under train-eval queue mismatch ($\mathrm{RI} = 0.811$); retraining recovers RI to $1.018$ but IPPO still leads on throughput, pointing to residual limitations in centralized critics under per-shipment dispatch.

Humanitarian reports are long, noisy, and multi-topic, making it difficult to consolidate decision-relevant causal evidence. We present a ReliefWeb study (2000-2024) and a two-stage Large Language Model (LLM) pipeline that extracts structured intervention-outcome records with direction and strength attributes. Query-conditioned extraction restricts output to a specified intervention class, reducing retrieval-induced over-extraction, while snippet grounding links each relation to supporting text for auditability and classification. In an expert-annotated dataset of 100 reports, the best closed-source LLM achieved a weighted F1 score of 90.73% with strong cost-efficiency, while Llama-3.1-8B with supervised fine-tuning reached 94.15% weighted F1 score. We further propose context-preserving triangulation that aggregates strength-weighted evidence within disaster$\times$source cells, applies Laplace smoothing and equally weights cells to quantify cross-context convergence via a Level-of-Evidence score. Applied to cash assistance, food-related outcomes show strong positive convergence (LoE=0.865) and stable long-horizon trajectories.

Natural disasters frequently inflict severe damage to the built environment, which demands a rapid, reliable, and cost-effective damage assessment for emergency response. However, traditional methods for post-disaster damage assessment often rely on static, labor-intensive data collection strategies that can be prohibitively expensive and struggle to adapt to dynamic post-disaster conditions. In this study, we propose a cost-aware Bayesian optimization framework combined with level-set estimation that continuously guides autonomous data collectors, e.g., an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), toward the most informative regions. By dynamically updating damage estimates across different geographic zones, our approach systematically reduces uncertainty while minimizing operational costs. The proposed framework is first validated using a controlled synthetic toy study, demonstrating the agent's ability to efficiently trace damage boundaries, recover the underlying damage map, and rapidly reduce predictive uncertainty. Furthermore, the approach is evaluated using high-fidelity disaster data generated by the Regional Resilience Determination (R2D) software. The results of the algorithm provide accurate and timely damage estimates that support informative and fast emergency response.

Rapid and accurate post-disaster building damage assessment is essential, yet remains a challenging task. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery offers a timely and high-resolution view of affected areas, but existing Computer Vision (CV) models often demand large annotated datasets, generalize poorly across geographic regions and their assessment policies, and are confined to the specific tasks they were trained for. Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) offer a promising alternative through their strong reasoning and generalization capabilities, but fall short on precise, low-level perception tasks such as object detection and accurate bounding box generation. Furthermore, they often require a substantial amount of data for effective fine-tuning on domain-specific tasks. In this paper, we propose a hybrid framework that decouples detection from damage assessment, combining the precision of CV models with the reasoning power of LVLMs. A CV model first detects buildings and generates bounding boxes on the image that are then passed to an LVLM for damage classification and contextual interpretation. We evaluated our framework on two real-world benchmarks: RescueNet and FloodNet. In particular, the best combination under this framework accurately counts intact, partially damaged and completely destroyed buildings, surpassing isolated baselines by up to 2.1 R^2 points, while requiring only limited annotated data for the detection stage. Beyond reporting aggregate gains, we provide a detailed analysis of failure scenarios and edge cases, offering practical insights for practitioners and concrete directions for future work. Our source code and data are publicly available to the research community via the following repository: https://github.com/ungquanghuy-kddi/VLM_GDINO.git

Addressing urban blight has seen increased focus in the past 15 years. Assessing urban blight is essential for guiding urban planning, targeting rehabilitation, and safeguarding public health, yet traditional residential blight surveys are difficult to maintain at scale due to the labor-intensive cost and long-term cycle. This study introduced a scalable framework for estimating residential blight using open-source large vision-language models on multiple views. Structured prompts guided models to evaluate housing attributes, including roof integrity, wall damage, and broken or boarded openings, producing both binary assessments and probabilistic estimates of disrepair. To evaluate the performance of these visual assessments, we compared professional human annotations of these features across several models, including an ensemble stacking approach based on XGBoost and a weighted scoring system. Results showed that (i) multiple street views can contribute to the improvement of accuracy, (ii) large vision-language models have different strengths of inference, (iii) the ensemble learner outperforms individual base models, enhancing robustness across all residential conditions and blight assessment. The practical application of the method allows low-cost tracking and management of housing stock conditions, providing a regularly updatable complement to traditional blight surveys.

Rapid estimation of impacted structures - critical for conflict-zone humanitarian response - is frequently hindered by post-strike satellite data embargoes and imagery blackouts. We bypass this operational bottleneck by reframing impacted building mapping as a zero-shot geometric projection task on archival, pre-strike maps. Using coordinate and incident text from LiveUAMap and ArcGIS, Large Language Models extract weapon payloads (W) to project kinetic blast perimeters via Hopkinson-Cranz scaling (R_base = Z * W^(1/3)). To count exposed structures within these zones without post-strike imagery, we introduce two technical innovations: Adaptive Field-of-View to eliminate resolution (zoom) bias in 2D segmentation (SAMGeo), and 2.5D pseudo-height depth maps combined with segmentation masks to help Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) resolve overlapping, dense rooftops. Evaluated on 2026 Middle East conflict data, depth-augmented LVLMs dramatically outperform traditional segmentation in congested urban centers. This establishes a powerful hybrid paradigm for zero-shot crisis mapping: ultra-fast 2D segmentation for sparse rural zones, and depth-augmented LVLMs for dense urban environments.

The Mpox outbreak remains a serious public health issue, with the WHO (World Health Organization) reporting increasing cases in some regions. Research on Mpox is vital for several reasons, including vaccine development, diagnostic improvement, viral evolution studies, and preventing future outbreaks. However, the large amount of research being published makes it difficult to organize and analyze information efficiently. This study focuses on using multilabel classification to categorize 14590 Mpox research articles into key topics such as outbreaks, vaccination, and epidemiology. Among the different AI models tested, BERT performed the best, achieving 97.05% accuracy, 97.67% micro F1 score, and 96.46% macro F1 score. To better understand how the model makes decisions, SHAP was used to analyze significant word features and patterns. The results show that BERT can help automate the classification of Mpox research, making it easier for researchers, policymakers, and healthcare workers to quickly find relevant information, saving time and improving public health efforts.

In picture-based agricultural insurance for smallholder farmers, missed damage detections carry substantially higher cost than false alarms: a farmer who sustained real losses receives no payout, while unnecessary expert review is operationally costly but reversible. Standard multi-class classifiers optimize global accuracy but provide no mechanism to operationalize or control this asymmetric cost structure at inference time. We propose CascadeCropNet, a two-stage cascade architecture calibrated to satisfy a target recall constraint (Rec-Damaged >= 0.95) through threshold selection. A lightweight Sentinel model performs binary health triage; samples exceeding a calibrated damage probability threshold tau are escalated to a specialist Expert model for fine-grained diagnosis. This design provides explicit, deployment-time control over the safety-efficiency trade-off without retraining. Evaluated on the Eyes on the Ground dataset (23,804 images from Kenyan smallholder maize farms), the cascade achieves Rec-Damaged = 0.974 at tau = 0.5, reducing missed damage cases by up to 54% relative to a flat baseline. Under evaluation alignment, the representational gap reduces to +0.008 F1-macro, confirming the contribution is architectural rather than representational. Under input degradation, the system prioritizes escalation over confident misclassification, reflecting error containment through architectural isolation rather than intrinsic model robustness. These results demonstrate that cascade architectures can operationalize safety-oriented decision constraints through calibrated routing in settings where reliability matters more than aggregate accuracy. These properties depend on threshold calibration and deployment conditions and do not constitute guarantees under arbitrary distribution shift.

Monitoring post-disaster recovery is essential for understanding how urban systems rebuild and progressively return to functionality. However, tracking reconstruction remains difficult because reliable ground-truth information is often scarce and recovery processes evolve over time. This paper proposes an unsupervised framework for recovery monitoring based on multi-temporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations and deep-learning anomaly detection. COSMO-SkyMed time series are used to identify persistent temporal anomalies associated with reconstruction activities and to generate spatially explicit recovery maps. The framework is applied to four cities severely affected by the 2023 Turkiye-Syria earthquakes, revealing heterogeneous reconstruction dynamics across different urban contexts. The results show spatially structured patterns of persistent anomalies related to reconstruction over damaged and cleared areas, temporary container settlements, and new residential districts. Comparison with nighttime-light recovery indicators derived from SDGSAT-1 data highlights the complementary nature of the two modalities: nighttime lights reflect the restoration of electricity supply and nighttime socioeconomic activity, whereas SAR anomalies capture structural changes in the built environment and may reveal reconstruction at earlier stages. The results demonstrate that multi-temporal SAR data combined with unsupervised learning provide an effective and scalable approach for monitoring post-disaster reconstruction when labeled recovery datasets are unavailable.

Social media imagery (SMI) provides timely and fine-grained ground perspectives that are valuable for situational awareness and emergency response. Unlike satellite or aerial imagery, SMI can capture disaster impacts and ground-level conditions in a timely manner. However, geographic references in SMI are often vague or ambiguous, making accurate geolocalization challenging. To address this issue, we propose DisasterTD, a disaster toponym disambiguation framework that integrates multimodal large language model (MLLMs)-based semantic reasoning with cross-view geolocalization. First, MLLMs extract toponyms and generate candidate geolocations from noisy textual inputs. Then, cross-view matching between SMI, remote sensing imagery (RSI), and optionally street-view imagery (SVI) is used to verify and refine these candidate results. We evaluate DisasterTD on the Hurricane Harvey dataset, where SMI is augmented with collected RSI and SVI to construct a cross-view benchmark for disaster geolocalization. The dataset is divided into four categories based on toponym clarity and ambiguity, allowing a fine-grained performance analysis across scenarios. Results show that DisasterTD consistently outperforms MLLM-only and cross-view-only baselines without disambiguation, achieving geolocalization accuracies of 71.62% within 1000 m, 62.36% within 500 m, 57.99% within 250 m, 52.09% within 100 m, and 47.01% within 50 m, while reducing the mean and median errors to 11.33 km and 0.68 km, respectively. The largest improvements appear in ambiguous toponyms, where semantic reasoning with cross-view evidence reduces candidate dispersion and errors. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of integrating MLLM-based candidate generation with cross-view verification for fine-grained disaster geolocalization.

Rapid post-disaster response requires timely, building-level information on whether structures remain intact, are damaged, or are destroyed. Post-event optical imagery, however, may be unavailable because of cloud, smoke, or darkness. The Bright Challenge evaluated all-weather building damage mapping from a submeter-resolution pre-event optical image and a post-event SAR image. Participants were required to detect and delineate each building and assign exactly one of three mutually exclusive damage labels. The challenge extended the globally distributed \textsc{Bright} dataset with instance-level annotations for about 291,000 buildings across 16 disaster events spanning seven disaster types. The final phase was evaluated exclusively on two 2025 events absent from training: a wildfire event in California and a hurricane in Jamaica. A total of 157 participants made 1,289 submissions, and 46 teams entered the final phase. The two winning solutions achieved test mAPs of 0.182 and 0.181, approximately 8.7 times the public baseline of 0.021, but remained far below the best in-domain holdout score of 0.513. Across teams ranked in both phases, performance declined sharply and the rank order changed substantially. The two leading solutions independently favored modality-specific encoding, staged or late optical--SAR fusion, and an optical-dominant separation of building localization from damage recognition. The winning method additionally used scene-aware threshold adjustment and pseudo-label adaptation. These results identify cross-event generalization and stable severity discrimination as the principal remaining challenges. All data, annotations, baseline code, and winning solutions are publicly available at https://github.com/ChenHongruixuan/BRIGHT.

Housing-level urban physical examination is essential for identifying residential building problems and supporting targeted urban renewal. Existing automated inspection studies primarily rely on individual images and rarely examine whether surrounding urban functional context can provide supplementary information for building-level assessment. This study proposes a vision-POI fusion framework that combines multi-view visual inspection with POI-derived neighborhood context for residential building health assessment. The empirical dataset covers 92 old residential communities, 3,237 residential buildings, and 25,608 field-acquired inspection images in Qingdao, China, encompassing seven categories of housing-related issues. First, multiple object detection models are evaluated to extract issue locations, categories, and confidence scores from individual images. The image-level outputs are subsequently aggregated across multiple views to construct interpretable building-level representations. Second, POI features are extracted within 500m, 1,000m, and 1,500m neighborhood buffers to characterize surrounding functional environments. Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses, combined with false discovery rate correction, are used to identify candidate contextual features. Finally, visual and POI features are integrated using a cost-sensitive Random Forest classifier under community-isolated spatial cross-validation. The results show that multi-view aggregation provides the main performance improvement, increasing the building-level Macro-F1 from 60.84% under Direct Detection to 74.95%. Incorporating POI context further increases Macro-F1 to 76.79%, although the additional gain is modest and category-dependent. POI information therefore functions as a supplementary contextual prior rather than a substitute for direct visual evidence or a causal determinant of building condition.

Physical simulations that predict the behavior of urban disasters, such as climate-related flooding, play a crucial role in disaster prevention and the development of anomaly detection models. However, the severe shortage of flood data in real-world environments, combined with the inherent distortions of fisheye lens images, which are used for urban surveillance, has made high-precision simulations challenging. To address this, we propose a new physical simulation system PhysFlood that leverages Diffusion Models to synthesize realistic floods from just a single image captured by a fisheye lens. Our system not only enables simulation from a single image, but also features the ability to freely control and generate diverse flood scenarios by manipulating physically meaningful variables, such as water levels. In our evaluation experiments, we conducted a qualitative human study and demonstrated that the simulation images generated by PhysFlood exhibit both acceptable realism and robustness.

Grounded in human rights-based frameworks such as the UNESCO Recommendation on the Ethics of AI, the Global Index on Responsible AI (GIRAI) examines how countries translate responsible AI commitments into enforceable protections, institutional capacity, and redress mechanisms. GIRAI 2026 assesses these across five dimensions: Inclusion and Diversity, Ethics and Sustainability, Labour and Skills, Trust and Safety, and AI Use in Public Service. A global network of 135 country-level researchers collected and assessed 68,138 data points on 38 indicators organised across three pillars: government AI policy and implementation (17 indicators), civil society engagement (5), enabling conditions (15), and documented cases of government deployment of unacceptable-risk AI systems. The data covers November 2023 to September 2025. A score of 100 is derived from the indicators to rank all countries. Findings show that while responsible AI governance is expanding, with 126 of 135 countries having at least one government policy or initiative across the 17 AI Policy indicators, this does not often translate into meaningful protection. For instance, Global South countries account for 203 of 306 new cases of indicators with frameworks since the first edition, yet 78% of their frameworks remain non-binding compared with 42% in the Global North. Government commitment to AI governance also does not extend to their own algorithms: whereas Transparency and Explainability is the strongest performing indicator, with 58% of countries having some framework, only 18% require Public Disclosure of Government Algorithms. Credible evidence of government deployment of unacceptable-risk AI systems was also found in 35 countries. These findings show that responsible AI governance must move beyond framework adoption toward enforceable rights-based protections, resourced oversight institutions, and accessible redress.

As automated decision-making and data-driven technologies pervade society and are used to manage consequential outcomes, understanding the technology's capabilities, limitations, and attendant risks in context requires analysis of full sociotechnical systems. Sociotechnical analysis of risks in highly complex systems provides clear lessons for the design and evaluation of AI systems, transcending a technical focus on reliable or "responsibly designed" components to understand risks at a systems level. Human-made catastrophes have been studied for decades because of the severity of these events: consider Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Fukushima-Daiichi, Bhopal, the Challenger disaster. A common misconception is that these kinds of events are freak accidents, resulting from the inherently unforeseeable interactions in complex systems. Closer examination reveals that the risks and hazards were well-known beforehand but not acted upon due to social structural, political and economic factors. We outline several areas where the development and use of AI can benefit from learning these unlearned lessons: improved risk perception, communication, and analysis at the organizational level; traceability of requirements and responsibilities; and holistic approaches to responsibility and safety that include social and organizational dynamics as first-order engineering concerns. For each area, we offer concrete unlearned lessons and exemplify how they led to failure in prior accidents as well as examples of how these lessons remain unlearned for modern computing systems, particularly AI.

This paper presents Earthquaker-AI, a hybrid educational framework building upon a previously implemented educational robotics project by integrating a conversational AI assistant based on Retrieval-Augmented Generation. It aims to enhance earthquake preparedness and conscious action among primary-school students. The system extends the award-winning STEM project Earthquaker moving from mechanical simulation with Lego WeDo2 to cognitive and metacognitive processing. The robotics component uses Lego WeDo2 automation to simulate seismic response, letting students interact with sensors and actuators as tangible representations of protective actions. The assistant operates as a guided learning mechanism aligning student responses with safety guidelines, while providing rubric-based verbal feedback that supports self-regulated learning and calmness under emergency conditions. Earthquaker-AI follows a progressive learning trajectory aligned with cognitive development. In early grades, the focus is on basic recognition of safety actions through multiple-choice questions, assessed via a two-dimensional rubric. In middle grades, students identify correct action sequences through multiple-choice questions, evaluated via a three-axis rubric. In upper grades, the approach shifts to verbal production, requiring short written responses assessed via a four-dimensional rubric that includes clarity of expression. The dialogic module uses RAG to match student queries semantically with official guidelines, generating safe, accurate responses. Experimental evaluation shows high groundedness and accuracy, with a low hallucination rate. Overall, Earthquaker-AI combines hands-on engagement, information processing, and reflective practice. Combining robotics, rubrics, and AI promotes technological literacy, self-regulation, and responsible use of digital systems, contributing to early crisis-management skills.

When a large disaster strikes, responders need a map of which buildings are damaged within hours. The models that do well on public benchmarks assume matched before-and-after imagery and a training set drawn from similar past events, and neither is usually available for a new disaster in its first day. We present HASTE (High-speed Assessment and Satellite Tracking for Emergencies), a no-code web platform that lets analysts who are not machine learning engineers produce per-building damage maps from post-disaster satellite imagery. HASTE implements two methods that share one interface. The first requires the user to label polygons over the post-disaster scene, trains a small semantic segmentation model on that single scene, runs it over the whole image, and joins the per-pixel output to existing building footprints. The second embeds every footprint with a pretrained vision model, requires the user to label a handful of buildings, and fits a logistic regression in the browser that scores the rest of the scene in seconds. We describe the platform, both methods, and the engineering that supports them. We also report preliminary experiments on xBD showing that foundation-model embeddings pooled over footprints separate damaged from intact buildings using post-disaster imagery alone, matching a fully supervised ResNet-50 baseline with a twentieth of its labels. HASTE and its predecessors have supported more than thirty real-world disaster responses since 2023, spanning earthquakes, hurricanes, cyclones, floods, wildfires, and tornadoes, delivering results to humanitarian partners within hours to days of imagery becoming available. We close with the directions we think are most promising, including vision-language assessment, active learning, and damage models for roads and other infrastructure. HASTE is open source at https://github.com/microsoft/haste.

Bangladesh has an estimated 1.17 mental-health professionals per 100,000 population and only six child psychiatrists nationwide. No Bengali-language, culturally adapted tool exists for early screening of abuse-related psychological trauma in children. We present ShishuRaksha AI, a decision-support (not diagnostic) framework that fuses four screening modalities: validated questionnaires (SDQ, CPSS), Bengali narrative text, House-Tree-Person (HTP) drawing features, and facial affect. The fusion is training-free and clinically weighted, uses cross-modal attention, and includes a single-modality override rule. Every risk score is explained through clinically weighted, perturbation-based additive attribution and rendered as a bilingual (Bangla/English) report with referral routing to national child-protection services (OCC, DSS, NMHH) under the Children Act 2013. No clinical dataset of abused children can be collected ethically at this stage, so we introduce a noise-aware synthetic benchmark (500 cases, 116 positive [23.2%], four deliberate noise layers, literature-grounded HTP priors) and evaluate tree-ensemble surrogates of the fusion design (facial channel excluded) under 5-fold stratified cross-validation. The fused model reaches an AUC of 0.874 [0.834-0.908], against 0.756 [0.705-0.803] for an SDQ-only baseline, with ablation, operating-point, subgroup, and calibration analyses. We state all limitations openly, including synthetic-only data, no held-out set, text-feature circularity, and an urban-rural subgroup gap. This work is a feasibility study and a design contribution toward ethically deployable child-protection screening in low-resource settings.

Large Language Models are increasingly deployed in emotional-support contexts and crisis-related situations. Nevertheless, their cross-lingual abilities in these circumstances remain underexplored. Existing benchmarks emphasize multilingual performance but rarely examine crisis-related empathy and cultural grounding in low-to-mid-resource languages. We introduce SPLIT, a 500-prompt benchmark designed to evaluate LLM consistency in generating emotionally grounded responses across five categories: Stress, Panic, Loneliness, Internal Displacement, and Tension. We evaluate three technically diverse LLMs across three dimensions: Empathetic Accuracy, Linguistic Naturalness, and Contextual & Cultural Grounding. The framework aims to assess and compare the quality of LLM responses in both English and Ukrainian languages, as well as to explore the reliability of the LLM-as-a-jury paradigm. Our findings reveal that Gemini-2.5-Flash and LLaMA-3.3-70B-Instruct degrade when transitioning to Ukrainian, while DeepSeek-V3 remains comparatively stable within our benchmark. We additionally find that human and AI evaluators agree weakly on empathy and naturalness but diverge on cultural grounding. We further argue that producing Ukrainian text is not equivalent to producing Ukrainian emotional support. Our findings may assist in the future development of more culturally tailored benchmark designs, as well as encourage a stronger emphasis on human-centered evaluation.

News articles are an important source of information on disaster impacts and adaptation. A key methodological challenge in socio-environmental studies is how to select a representative data sample. Two approaches are common: querying news databases top-down with the aid of an existing disaster inventory or using NLP methods to cluster news texts bottom-up based on temporal and spatial features. Using a dataset of German news about landslides worldwide, we compare these approaches and discuss variations in event coverage. Such research design decision can influence the resulting news sample, affecting its use in studies of inequality in media coverage, disaster monitoring and inventory enrichment.

International humanitarian law protects civilians from direct attack unless and for such time as they take direct part in hostilities, with the ICRC's 2009 Interpretive Guidance operationalising this rule through a three-criterion cumulative test. This paper argues that AI-mediated civilian cyber operations challenge the direct causation element of this test in a structurally specific way: when a civilian deploys an autonomous multi-agent cyber system of the kind recently demonstrated in offensive AI research, the "one causal step" standard fails because harm is produced by system-generated decisions made after human disengagement, and the integral-part requirement does not extend because it presupposes downstream human contributors whose conduct can be independently classified. The framework therefore defaults to treating such deployments as indirect participation, in tension with its purpose of capturing civilians who personally take part in hostilities. Beyond the doctrinal analysis, this paper identifies goal-specification granularity as the property on which the integral-part test's concreteness component implicitly turns, classifies AI-mediated operations along a five-level spectrum, and argues that existing technical AI governance instruments do not log or report this property.

Post-hurricane damage assessment and repair scheduling can require computationally intensive simulation and optimization. This paper presents an integrated two-stage deep-learning tool for rapid damaged-line identification and repair-schedule computation. An available offline synthetic dataset for the IEEE 9500-node test feeder contains 1,700 hurricane scenarios with exposure features, grid metadata, fragility parameters, OpenDSS outputs, damaged-line labels, and Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search reference schedules. Stage 1 benchmarks MLP, ResMLP, and GraphSAGE, while Stage 2 compares MLP, DeepSets, and Set Transformer. The selected ResMLP-Set Transformer pipeline propagates Stage 1 errors into Stage 2 and achieves a damaged-job F1-score of 0.920, pairwise order agreement of 0.854, and start- and end-time mean absolute errors of 4.349 min and 4.486 min, respectively. The tool provides rapid initial repair-log decision support for new hurricane cases.

We present a novel approach for applying Large Language Models (LLMs) to threat assessment in the context of foreign peacekeeping missions. Building on the PINPOINT project and its use case, the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia, we combine an interdisciplinary risk-model with OSINT-based media collection and LLM-supported threat extraction. The proposed workflow maps media contents to mission-relevant threats, extracts structured information and applies several additional LLM-based processing steps to improve relevance and grounding. An evaluation of threats extracted from media documents shows high agreement between automatically generated results and human judgment for core aspects such as threat and mission relevance. These results indicate that LLMs provide a promising approach to support analysts in the context of peacekeeping missions.

Remote Sensing Foundation Models (RSFMs) have emerged as a powerful alternative to supervised models for Earth Observation, allowing satellites to autonomously trigger high-resolution captures or adjust tasking parameters upon detecting an anomaly, thereby maximizing the utility of the mission's limited power and computational resources. RSFMs are versatile, unified encoders that optimize onboard storage for multiple orbital applications while ensuring high-fidelity feature extraction. In particular, unsupervised change detection with RSFMs offers a well-informed and transformative path for disaster monitoring without expensive labels. In this paper, we present a novel unsupervised detection method based on ResNet (RSFM) + FPN which identifies a wide spectrum of anomalies by detecting subtle semantic shifts in the latent space between successive orbital passes. By relying on an untrained FPN architecture and its intrinsic priors, the system achieves efficient image-level generation and higher resolution mapping with minimal effort (training-free) compared to previous proposals (patch-based, trained). And by replacing tailored models with RSFMs, we can achieve comparable results through an approach that eliminates the need for bespoke training and extensive development effort and adds customization, while ensuring high-performance generalization across diverse terrains and sensors.

Data from affected populations are crucial for informing humanitarian response, but their value depends on timely and consistent interpretation of nuanced accounts of need. Humanitarian organizations often lack the staff, time, and specialist expertise required to analyze this information at scale. Large language models (LLMs) may expand this capacity, but their reliability for coding qualitative humanitarian data has not been directly established. This benchmark study compares 46 LLMs to a human Gold Standard using 150 high-fidelity synthetic humanitarian transcripts. Evaluation combined inter-rater reliability testing with Krippendorff's alpha, discrepancy analysis distinguishing correct, near-correct, and incorrect codes, and qualitative assessment across humanitarian-specific criteria including discrimination, complex needs hierarchies, and non-standard communication styles. The authors find that multiple LLMs can perform deductive coding at reliability levels comparable to experienced human coders, especially when structured prompts and reasoning-enabled configurations are used. At the same time, aggregate reliability metrics alone are insufficient for deployment decisions. Models varied in recognizing needs expressed indirectly, needs outside predefined categories, and protection-relevant concerns such as physical safety and discrimination. These findings suggest that LLMs can materially expand humanitarian analytical capacity, but not as substitutes for human judgment. Appropriate use requires structured codebooks, reasoning-enabled models, attention to theme-specific performance, and tiered oversight focused on categories where miscoding would have the greatest programmatic consequences. For sensitive humanitarian data, open-weights models deployed on self-hosted infrastructure may offer a viable path for combining analytical scalability with stronger data governance.

Due to the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, there is a clear demand for intelligent, scalable, and autonomous approaches to disaster damage assessment. Existing methods, largely based on supervised learning and task-specific fine-tuning, struggle to generalize under domain shifts, long-tailed data distributions, and heterogeneous geospatial data sources, especially in disaster scenarios. They also often lack the ability to integrate and reason across multimodal geospatial information, such as satellite images and street-view images. In this paper, we introduce RAPID, a reproducible multi-agent pipeline for interpretable disaster damage assessment, including damage-level assessment, damage-type interpretation, and actionable suggestions for response, remediation, and recovery. RAPID coordinates specialized agents to perform cross-view understanding, image restoration, structured damage recognition, and geographical reasoning across heterogeneous data modalities. Without task-specific fine-tuning, RAPID supports zero-shot damage assessment by jointly using complementary information from remote sensing and ground-level perspectives. The system produces fine-grained, interpretable assessments and automatically generates location-specific, decision-relevant disaster reports to support early-stage emergency response. We evaluate RAPID across hurricanes, floods, wildfires, and earthquakes using multiple cross-view imagery inputs, including pre- and post-disaster street-view images, post-disaster remote sensing imagery, and street-view image pairs. Experiments show that RAPID achieves 0.92 overall accuracy for multi-disaster type classification and up to 0.627 for cross-view damage severity prediction, highlighting its potential as a foundational framework for autonomous disaster intelligence.

Nowadays, more and more disasters of different natures are appearing. Several disaster assessment approaches have been developed in order to identify damaged areas from aerial images. These damaged areas contain rich material that could be recycled towards several ecological purposes. In this paper, we present a lightweight approach that permits the efficient detection of recyclable material. Experimental results show the potential of the proposed approach towards localizing recyclable materials. Accordingly, we provide a rare dataset of material images that we labeled towards supporting the development of recyclable material detectors. The dataset of labeled material images is publicly available at: anonymous.

The rapid advancement of text-to-image diffusion models has enabled the creation of highly photorealistic synthetic images that closely resemble real photographs, making it increasingly difficult to distinguish authentic content from AI-generated fabrications. This poses challenges for cybersecurity, digital forensics, and disaster response, where fake imagery of floods, fires, or earthquakes can spread misinformation or disrupt emergency operations. To address this, we introduce Forged Calamity, a benchmark dataset for synthetic disaster detection containing 30,000 images, including 6,000 real and 24,000 synthetic samples generated by four diffusion models. Comprehensive experiments across fine-tuned and zero-shot settings reveal consistent weaknesses in current forensic approaches. Fine-tuned detectors perform well in-distribution but lose up to 50% accuracy on unseen generators or disaster types, showing overfitting to model-specific artifacts. Zero-shot generalized detectors also struggle to maintain stable accuracy, with only limited resilience in a few representation-robust models. These findings highlight persistent generalization gaps and the urgent need for domain- and model-agnostic detection methods to ensure visual authenticity in the diffusion era.

Robotics are expected to support environmental monitoring and natural disaster management, where decisions must be made under uncertainty, resource limitations, and strict operational constraints. In critical missions, such as wildfires, robotic agents must not only identify hazardous events with sufficient confidence, but also manage the energy cost and time until detection. This paper introduces ED3R, an energy-aware distributed framework for wildfire detection under uncertainty. ED3R enables hierarchical cooperative decision-making between a robot and a remote controller. The remote controller decides upon the robot's motion, while the robot senses the environment and decides where to execute the wildfire detection (onboard or remotely) and how. The common goal is to detect wildfires with a required confidence while minimizing the energy consumed by any robot operation. ED3R further integrates mechanisms to avoid nearby obstacles, prevent redundant exploration, enable adaptive early mission completion, and ensure feasibility through a custom penalty function. ED3R also introduces a forward-looking capability, enabled through distributed neural regression models that allow the agents to anticipate the future by evaluating candidate strategies before execution. The framework is evaluated through realistic robotics simulations, ablation studies, and baseline comparisons. Overall, ED3R achieves a mission success rate of up to 97.18%. Especially in the most demanding missions, it reduces energy consumption by up to 36.4% and detects wildfires up to 41% faster than baselines.

Rapid assessment of building damage from satellite imagery is essential for effective disaster response and recovery. While most deep learning methods rely on spatial-domain features, frequency-domain representations can capture complementary structural cues such as debris patterns and collapse-induced textures. This study presents a controlled comparison of spatial-domain, frequency-domain, and dual-domain deep learning approaches for multi-class building damage classification using post-disaster imagery from the xView2 (xBD) dataset. To ensure fairness, all models are built on an EfficientNet-B0 backbone and trained under identical settings, differing only in their input representations and fusion strategies. Performance is evaluated using accuracy, macro F1-score, per-class metrics, and confusion matrices. Results show that dual-domain models provide measurable improvements over single-domain approaches. The dual spatial configuration achieves the highest test accuracy (0.4688) and lowest loss, while the spatial-only model attains the best macro F1-score (0.4254), indicating more balanced class performance. In contrast, frequency-only models perform worst and exhibit overfitting, suggesting limited generalization. Despite these gains, all models struggle to detect subtle damage levels, particularly the Minor class, due to class imbalance and fine-grained visual ambiguity. While dual-domain approaches improve detection of severe damage, challenges remain. These findings highlight the benefits and limitations of hybrid representations and motivate future work on data balancing, advanced fusion, and regularization.

Remote-sensing vision-language models (RS-VLMs) have advanced Earth-observation analysis toward visual interpretation and instruction-following, yet fall short of operational geo-intelligence, which demands tool-grounded spatial reasoning and structured, evidence-backed decisions. We introduce GeoDisaster, an operational geospatial disaster reasoning benchmark with 2,921 verified instances across 43 question types and five task families: deforestation monitoring, multi-hazard analysis, building-damage assessment, flood-safe routing, and Sentinel-1 SAR flood monitoring. Instances integrate heterogeneous EO/GIS evidence-optical and SAR imagery, raster masks, vector geometries, road networks, and exposure layers-spanning hazard detection, damage assessment, exposure estimation, and diagnostic report generation. Ground-truth answers are grounded in executable geospatial workflows and deterministic consistency checks, removing the need for language-model annotation. We further propose an orchestrated multi-agent framework with 18 disaster-oriented tools, where role-specialized agents coordinate through explicit execution contracts, aligned via Role-Contract Expectation Alignment (RCEA): failure-aware supervised fine-tuning combined with contract-grounded reinforcement learning over dense step-level signals. Experiments show that GeoDisaster challenges existing RS-VLMs and agentic systems, while RCEA improves tool use, evidence grounding, state consistency, and decision generation.

Timely and accurate disaster damage assessment is crucial for effective emergency response, resource allocation, and recovery. Traditional methods, which often rely on manual inspections or sparse data, are typically slow and error-prone. This paper introduces a novel framework leveraging remote sensing imagery and deep learning to automate building damage classification. Using pre- and post-disaster satellite imagery, our model categorizes buildings into four damage levels: no damage, minor damage, major damage, and destroyed. The core innovation is a multi-modal attention mechanism that fuses bi-temporal features to explicitly detect and assess structural changes. We employ a lightweight ConvNeXT-Tiny backbone to ensure efficient processing without compromising performance. Key contributions include: (1) a cross-attention module for multi-modal data fusion, (2) an optimized preprocessing pipeline for large-scale datasets, and (3) robust data augmentation techniques. Experiments on a large-scale disaster dataset demonstrate an overall classification accuracy of 94.90%. The model effectively discriminates between damage categories and remains resilient to incomplete data. This system significantly improves assessment speed and accuracy, aiding emergency responders in prioritizing interventions. This work advances automated disaster damage detection by integrating multi-temporal imagery with deep learning, offering a scalable solution for real-time response.

How do people cope when disaster strikes and can we detect it at scale, in real time, from what they write? This study addresses that question using over one million Turkish-language tweets posted in the aftermath of the February 6, 2023 earthquake in Turkiye, which unfolded in a deeply polarized political context just months before a national election. Drawing on Lazarus and Folkman's (1984) coping theory, we develop a multi-label BERTurk classifier to detect three coping styles (problem-focused, emotion-focused, and meaning-making) across four theoretically motivated crisis phases. BERTurk achieves a macro F1 of 0.693, substantially outperforming a zero-shot mDeBERTa baseline (macro F1 = 0.324). Applied to the full corpus, the classifier reveals a clear temporal trajectory: problem-focused coping dominates the urgency phase and declines sharply, emotion-focused coping rises and stabilizes, and meaning-making increases monotonically. Anger correlates most strongly with meaning-making (Spearman r = 0.387), suggesting it functions as a mobilizing force toward blame attribution rather than practical action. These findings demonstrate that coping theory can be reliably operationalized in real-world digital crisis data and that doing so can help humanitarian organizations tailor their responses to where a population actually is.

Modern machine learning progresses through empirical work, benchmarking new methods to evaluate relative performance. However, the statistical variability inherent to evaluation - exacerbated by the stochastic nature of many algorithms - often makes performance estimation unreliable due to the limited test samples available, leading to a validation crisis in which genuine advances are difficult to discern. In this work, we show that cross-validation improves markedly confidence when evaluating and comparing learning algorithm performances. We introduce the concept of sample gain, which quantifies the virtual data augmentation achieved by using multiple cross-validation splits to reduce benchmarking variance. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets (histopathologic scans and NLP fine-tuning) demonstrate that multiple splits can substantially improve the reliability and stability of performance estimates, with diminishing returns often setting in later than expected. We also introduce a procedure to dynamically early-stop cross-validation by estimating from the first few folds if subsequent folds will bring large sample gains. Our findings highlight the value of pushing cross-validation on available samples to achieve robust and reliable benchmarking.

Decision-relevant building damage assessment is critical for prioritizing resources and recovery after a disaster, yet most automated methods either flatten damage into a single severity scale (no damage, minor, major, destroyed) or require paired pre- and post-event imagery that is often unavailable for emerging hazards. This paper presents Damage-TriageFormer, a single-image, post-event, footprint-conditioned model that produces a damage typology rather than a severity scale. We contribute: (1) DamageTriage-Bench, a new benchmark built from NOAA Emergency Response Imagery across Hurricane Michael (2018), Hurricane Helene (2024), and the 2025 Los Angeles wildfire complex, with five typology classes that distinguish roof damage from structural damage and, within each, partial from total extent; and (2) Damage-TriageFormer, which extends a DINOv3 ViT-L backbone with a Simple Feature Pyramid for higher-resolution instance pooling, a two-stage gated damage head, and an auxiliary severity-regression objective. Our model achieves macro F1 of 0.624 on validation and 0.619 on a held-out stratified test set, performing strongest where operational triage needs it most, with per-class F1 of 0.91 and 0.84 on undamaged buildings and total structural collapse, respectively. While the rare Total Roof Damage class remains difficult due to its limited examples and an inherently ambiguous label boundary, our results show that single-image post-event imagery can support actionable building damage typing, enabling targeted emergency response and resource allocation without a pre-event reference.

Accurate loss reserving is foundational to insurer solvency, yet accelerating climate driven catastrophes systematically violate the stability assumptions on which traditional actuarial methods depend. This white paper presents a research program testing whether Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks can detect and adapt to these structural breaks faster and more accurately than Chain Ladder, Bornhuetter Ferguson, and Cape Cod methods. Using 15 plus years of regulatory development triangle data from Florida and Louisiana, enriched with NOAA hurricane intensity indices and sea surface temperatures, we hypothesize a targeted improvement of 15, 20% in reserve accuracy for catastrophe exposed years, a threshold grounded both in the prior neural network reserving literature and in the formal convergence results developed here. Beyond empirical validation, we develop a theoretical framework grounding LSTM structural break detection in probabilistic terms, providing formal performance guarantees that compensate for the limited number of catastrophe events in the test period. We document the research design, methodology, expected contributions, and a candid assessment of limitations.

As one of the most destructive natural disasters, earthquakes have struck many countries around the world in recent years, causing serious economic losses. Change detection (CD) can be applied to post-earthquake damage assessment as it can infer destroyed change regions from multi-temporal remote sensing images. Furthermore, the CD with short imaging interval will better satisfy the needs of the emergency rescues after earthquakes. However, the capability of current methods built on deep neural networks is limited because the dataset with short imaging interval is absent. To meet post-disaster immediate relief, we create a CD dataset, Turkey earthquake CD dataset (TUE-CD), for the evaluation of building damage in the short term after an earthquake. Because of the short acquisition interval of the post-event images, the imaging angle is different for different temporal images, which leads to some side-looking problems. To deal with these challenges, we present a multi-scale feature interaction network (MSI-Net) for efficient interaction between bi-temporal features, as well as mitigating the effect of side-looking problems. Specifically, the proposed MSI-Net consists of joint cross-attention (JCA) modules, multi-scale offset calibration (MOC) modules, and feature integration (FeI) modules. The JCA module unifies channel cross-attention and spatial joint attention for sufficient feature interaction. The MOC module further estimates the offsets to align the bi-temporal image with the multi-scale features. Finally, calibrated features and multi-scale features are fused by FeI modules for the prediction of changed areas. Experiments on the WHU-CD, CLCD, and the constructed TUE-CD dataset indicate that the proposed MSI-Net provides better results than considered state-of-the-art CD methods.

Crises alter both how people move and how they communicate. During emergencies such as wildfires and pandemics, changes in mobility patterns and online emotional discourse evolve jointly, yet they are typically studied in isolation. This paper presents a unified and interpretable pipeline that integrates mobility and social media data to identify cross-domain behavioral patterns in crisis settings. The framework is evaluated through two case studies: a short-horizon analysis of the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires (prototype case) and a longitudinal analysis of UAE COVID-19 behavior from March 2020 to December 2021 (primary case, 671 days). The pipeline aligns heterogeneous daily signals, transforms them into binary behavioral states, applies Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) to extract co-occurrence structure, mines association rules, and validates rule stability through chronological holdout testing. A structured policy-translation layer renders robust rules as operational briefs specifying triggers, lead times, and action playbooks. Results reveal clear cross-domain behavioral structure in both crises. In the wildfire case, traffic stress, fear/anger sentiment, and governance discourse are tightly coupled within a 33-day window, with key rules reaching 100% confidence and lift scores up to 2.5. In the COVID case, repeated mobility adaptation and sentiment volatility yield 8 stable same-day rules (88% holdout pass rate) and 40 clean predictive rules with 2--7 day lead horizons. The work demonstrates that interpretable multimodal fusion can produce both scientifically credible and policy-actionable crisis intelligence.

Effective crisis response requires spatially grounded communication that bridges linguistic guidance of civilians with the physical environment, accounting for structural bottlenecks, evolving threats, and agent-specific contexts. Yet, current NLP research in crisis communication remains mainly limited to static, text-only classification settings, overlooking the critical communicative role of AI operators in dynamic, embodied scenarios. We address this gap with a novel benchmarking framework for evaluating Vision-Language Models (VLMs) tasked with guiding civilian agents through simulated evacuations. We test two communication strategies (narrowcast vs. broadcast), two environment representations (visual vs. graph-based), and two threat behaviors (static vs. moving) across nine maps of varying structural complexity. Our results show that Narrowcast consistently reduces civilian Fail rates compared to Broadcast across all difficulty levels. Guidance quality depends heavily on how the VLM operator represents the world: the visual modality drives performance, while adding an adjacency graph is model-dependent and often harmful. Moving threats raise Fail rates across all conditions as communication must continuously adapt over time. Together, these findings show that deploying VLMs as AI operators in evacuation scenarios remains a non-trivial challenge, where the choice of communication strategy and input representation can directly determine the success or failure of the intervention.

When a disaster unfolds, responders must answer not only what is happening, but also why it is happening, what will happen next, and what to do now, often from noisy low-altitude UAV views and under tight on-site compute constraints. However, most existing multimodal benchmarks emphasize perception (e.g., recognition/description), cover limited disaster types, and provide insufficient support for the multi-stage reasoning required in practical emergency response. We introduce DisasterBench, a multi-stage multimodal reasoning benchmark for UAV-Based disaster response in complex environments. DisasterBench spans 14 disaster-related scene types and 9 response-critical tasks across pre-, during-, and post-disaster stages, with fine-grained disaster-task mappings that explicitly test causal attribution, propagation prediction, damage analysis, and decision-oriented reasoning. To enable reasoning on the edge, we further propose DisasterVL, a lightweight multimodal model optimized with a three-stage pipeline combining domain instruction tuning, chain-of-thought-guided multimodal alignment, and reinforcement learning-based policy optimization. Experiments across 21 popular MLLMs show that our 2B-parameter DisasterVL outperforms all evaluated open-source models and substantially narrows the gap to state-of-the-art closed-source models, achieving GPT-4o-comparable reasoning accuracy with superior efficiency. The project page is available at https://github.com/TanmouTT/DisasterBench.

Disasters are inevitable and increasingly costly, and effective response depends on querying structured tabular data: precise, information-dense records of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and lifeline infrastructure that underpin disaster management. Current text-to-SQL methods enable natural-language access to such tables but transfer poorly to the disaster domain, where queries span heterogeneous geospatial schemas and require reasoning over causal relations. We introduce DisasterLex, a knowledge-graph-mediated framework that inserts an Expert Knowledge Graph (EKG) of curated concepts and typed causal edges between the user query and the database, bridged to schema by concept-to-table links. The orchestration runs four stages (identifying query entities, routing to the operational domain, planning over causal edges, and grounding the SQL), restricting the schema passed to the model at each step. We instantiate it on a disaster-analytics database (36 geospatial tables, 150 columns) with an EKG of 107 concepts, 117 causal edges, and 52 concept-to-schema links, evaluated on a 75-query test set. On all seven base models spanning proprietary and open-weight families, DisasterLex beats four state-of-the-art baselines (LightRAG, HippoRAG 2, ReFoRCE, CHESS) by 1.4x to 2.75x, with absolute scores of 1.65 to 3.56 (of 5.0). Error analysis shows baseline failures cluster in routing and multi-table SQL composition, the operations our orchestration explicitly addresses. Code, data, and the EKG artifact are available at https://github.com/YimingXiao98/DisasterLex and on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20388029.

Rapid identification of damaged buildings after natural disasters or on war areas is crucial to support emergency response and prioritize interventions. Earth Observation constellations provide timely, large-scale coverage, but actionable information is often delayed by data downlink constraints, on-ground processing, and human interpretation. Reducing this latency is essential to improve decision-making responsiveness. In this work, we propose an original AI-based system that enables object-level building damage assessment (localization and damage classification) directly onboard satellites from pre-disaster and post-disaster highresolution optical imagery. Available pre-disaster images are encoded on ground into compact latent representations, transmitted to the satellite, and compared on-board with newly acquired post-event observations. Leveraging AI interpretation capabilities and increasing processing capabilities on-board satellites, the proposed design enables processing directly at the data source, reducing the amount of information to be downlinked while preserving task-relevant content and improving overall system responsivity. We explore the design space through a systematic benchmark of onboard-compatible variants, analyzing the impact of siamese processing, cross-attention, latent-space compression, and robustness-oriented data augmentation. Experiments on xBD dataset demonstrate reliable and robust damage assessment under misalignment, with minimal performance degradation under strong compression.

Disasters cause severe societal impacts, demanding rapid coordination of heterogeneous AI tools, from satellite analysis to flood prediction and damage assessment, into coherent multi-step workflows. As LLMs increasingly serve as orchestrators of such pipelines, effective coordination requires more than selecting semantically plausible tools: LLMs must generate executable workflows with correct parameter binding and dependency propagation. We introduce DisasterBench, a benchmark for evaluating structured multi-agent planning over semantically similar but operationally distinct disaster-response tools. To enable step-level failure attribution, we further propose First-Point-of-Failure (FPoF), which localizes the earliest root cause in a predicted workflow, separating primary errors from downstream cascading effects. Our evaluation reveals three findings: planning method effectiveness depends strongly on model capacity; tool mismatch and parameter-binding errors dominate first failures, revealing semantic grounding and execution consistency as distinct bottlenecks; and verbose intermediate reasoning can create instruction clash with structured output requirements, disrupting plan generation. Together, these findings highlight a fundamental gap between semantic reasoning and execution-grounded coordination, underscoring the need for planning frameworks that jointly model semantic intent, execution constraints, and workflow consistency. Code, data, and evaluation resources are available at: https://github.com/TamuChen18/DisasterBench_Open

Crisis Responders (CRs) rapidly assess thousands of youth SMS conversations each year to identify mental health concerns and guide support. Yet youth distress is increasingly expressed through evolving and context-specific language that often does not fit fixed-label taxonomies. This work analyzed 703,975 de-identified Kids Help Phone conversations (2018-2023) and expanded KHP's 19-label issue taxonomy into a 39-label hierarchical schema. We then introduce Keyphrase Generative Representation (KGR), a constrained LLM generating concise, conversation-specific keyphrases, evaluated across 129 conversations and 387 expert annotations. The expanded taxonomy achieved expert consensus reliability, with an accuracy of 0.96, and expert review found that 81% of keyphrases accurately reflected content and 74% improved clarity. KGR surfaced identity-linked themes absent from the fixed taxonomy, including immigration problems and caregiver burden, and supported a topic-retrieval workflow that increased accuracy from 0.25 to 0.70 (+0.45) over the manual analyst process. KGR marks a shift toward hybrid, interpretable generative representations that extend crisis response beyond static taxonomies to surface emerging and culturally grounded patterns of youth distress.

AI models are already deployed in societies affected by armed conflict, and journalists, humanitarian workers, governments and ordinary citizens rely on them for information or for their work processes. No established practice exists for checking whether their outputs can make those conflicts worse. We tested nine model configurations from four providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepSeek, xAI) on 90 multi-turn scenarios designed to surface misaligned behaviour in conflict contexts: false equivalence between documented atrocities, denial of genocide, and failure to recognise ethnic slurs, among others. When such outputs feed into journalism, humanitarian reporting, or public debate, they can deepen divisions in fragile societies. Failure rates span 6% to 47% between the best and worst performing models, which makes model choice a safety question in its own right and when users pushed for ``balance'' in cases where international courts have already assigned responsibility, five of nine configurations failed 80 to 100 percent of the time. We release the first evaluation framework for this domain and propose adding it to alignment evaluation portfolios.

Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) and large language models (LLMs) have enabled the systematic use of large-scale textual data from news, social media, and reports to create datasets with socio-economic impacts of climate hazards such as floods, droughts, storms, and multi-hazard events. As the field of text-as-data for impact assessment expands, so does its methodological complexity. Yet research remains fragmented, with no clear guidelines for defining what constitutes an impact, handling temporal and spatial biases, and selecting appropriate modeling and post-processing strategies. This lack of coherence limits transparency and comparability across studies. Here, we address this gap by synthesising common practices, describing key challenges specific to the use of text-as-data methods for analyzing socio-economic impact data, and proposing recommendations to address them. By providing guidance on best practices, we aim to support the construction of robust text-derived socio-economic impact datasets that can more accurately inform disaster risk management and attribution studies.