Uncertainty Quantification

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Period ending 2026-09-14

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Period ending 2026-09-07

11 new papers

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  1. Physical knowledge on historical data matters more than enforcing physical constraints on the forecast

    Sep 17, 2026Etienne Lehembre, Pascal Audigane, Vincent Nguyen +2Fundamental Hydrological PrinciplesPredictive Uncertainty

  2. Uncertainty-Aware Continual Learning for Open-World Intent Discovery Under an evolving Label Space

    Sep 15, 2026Pisante Aida, Formentin SimoneEfficient Continual LearningUncertainty-Aware Teachers

  3. Uncertainty-Aware Conflict Detection Against Operator-Conditioned Weather Hazards

    Sep 14, 2026Balram Kandoria, Seulki Kim, Aryaman Singh SamyalUnmanned Aerial Vehicle TrajectoriesPredictive Uncertainty

  4. Decision-Oriented Uncertainty Quantification for Risk Control in Earth System Spatiotemporal Foundation Models

    Sep 13, 2026Ji Lu, Huiran Duan, Bo Zhao +5Predictive Uncertainty

  5. Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration

    Sep 12, 2026Yilin Zhang, Han Jiang, Cai Xu +2Calibrated UncertaintyEnsemble

  6. Conformal Calibration Transfer

    Sep 11, 2026Achref DoulaConformal PredictionCalibrated Uncertainty

  7. Sparsity Regularized and Robust Mean Variance Portfolio Selection Under Ellipsoidal Uncertainty

    Sep 11, 2026Deniz Akkaya, Emre Can Yayla, Buse Şen +1Portfolio OptimizationSparsity

  8. Learning to Adapt and Calibrate: Score Distribution Alignment for Few-Shot Uncertainty Prediction in Medical VLMs

    Sep 9, 2026Xuan Cuong Ngo, Ngan LeFew-Shot LearningVision-Language Model Adaptation

  9. Distilling Image Prototypes for Guided Test-Time Adaptation

    Sep 9, 2026Liwen Wang, Xingbo Dong, Iman Yi Liao +4Test-Time AdaptationLearnable Prototypes

  10. Uncertainty-Aware Sea-Ice Type Mapping with Multiple Ice Charts

    Sep 8, 2026Samira Alkaee Taleghan, Younghyun Koo, Andrew P. Barrett +1Sea Surface TemperaturePose Uncertainty

  11. Flexible Spectral-Normalized Neural Gaussian Process for Dynamic Aperture Prediction

    Sep 8, 2026Yousra El-Bachir, Frederik Van der Veken, Davide di Croce +4Gaussian ProcessBayesian Neural Networks

  12. The Role of Uncertainty in Assessing the Fairness of Machine Learning Models

    Sep 7, 2026Francesca Panero, Ernst C. Wit, Marco ScutariFairnessUncertainty Quantification

  13. AVCG: A Generalized Variational Framework for Counterfactual Generation under Hypothesis Distributions

    Sep 7, 2026Jamie Duell, Alejandro Jimenez Rodriguez, Mahault AlbarracinCounterfactual ExplanationPredictive Uncertainty

  14. Risk and Anomaly Identification for Distribution Network Optimal Operation Based on Reinforcement Learning and Uncertainty Quantification

    Sep 3, 2026Ziqi ZhangDistributional Reinforcement LearningUncertainty Quantification

  15. DynG-Diff: A State-Aware Dynamic Guidance Diffusion Framework for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Sep 2, 2026Zhente Zhang, Zhengwei Ni, Wei FanTime Series ForecastingRetrieval-Augmented Forecasting

  16. A Unified Uncertainty-Aware Back-End for Speaker Verification: Scoring, Normalization, and Calibration

    Sep 1, 2026Junjie Li, Kong Aik LeeSpeaker IdentityUncertainty-Aware Teachers

  17. EvoGS: Modeling Deformation Evolution for Dynamic Gaussian Splatting

    Sep 1, 2026Wei Dong, Shahram Shirani, Jun Chen +13D Gaussian SplattingObject-Level Deformation Consistency

  18. Residual Kalman Dynamics for Event-Based UAV Forecasting

    Sep 1, 2026Per Nyblom, Hannes Ovrén, David GustafssonUnmanned Aerial Vehicle TrajectoriesUnmanned Aerial Vehicles

  19. AdaptNTK: Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification and Active Learning for Neural Network Potentials

    Aug 31, 2026Prajwal Ananth, Shuwen YueInteratomic PotentialsActive Learning

  20. Uncertainty-Aware Trajectory Forecasting from Imperfect Tracking

    Aug 31, 2026Stephane Da Silva Martins, Victor Petrovic, Emanuel Aldea +1Trajectory PredictionPredictive Uncertainty

  21. VFR-Audit: Verdict-Level Reliability for Fairness Audits in Hospital Length-of-Stay Prediction

    Aug 31, 2026Md Jannatul Rakib Joy, Viet Vo, Caslon ChuaFairness AuditsAlgorithm Auditing

  22. Uncertainty-Aware End-to-End AI Weather Forecasting: Disentangling Observation and Model Contributions

    Aug 31, 2026Rodrigo Almeida, Noelia Otero, Jost Arndt +3Artificial Intelligence Weather ModelsData Assimilation

  23. CIG-RL: Curiosity-Driven Information-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Source Term Estimation in Uncertain Environments

    Aug 31, 2026Junhee Lee, Seunghwan Kim, Hongro Jang +4Efficient ExplorationUncertainty-Aware Teachers

  24. Uncertainty of Vision Medical Foundation Models

    Aug 31, 2026Haoxu Huang, Narges RazavianConformal PredictionUncertainty Quantification

  25. Rethinking the Test-Time Prompt Tuning Objective from the Perspective of Calibration

    Aug 31, 2026Jungwon Choi, Hyeonseo Jang, Kibok Lee +1Soft Prompt TuningTest-Time Adaptation

  26. Diffusion-Based Refinement for Kilometer-Scale Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting

    Aug 31, 2026Dohyun Park, Changhoon Song, Tengyuan Chang +2PrecipitationPredictive Uncertainty

  27. Certified Safety Radii in Forecast-Error Space for Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Small Signal Stability-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow via Lifted Spectrahedral Containment

    Aug 31, 2026Ziqi Zhang, Xi ChenAc Optimal Power FlowFinite-Sample Certificates

  28. Robust Broad Learning System with Wave Loss for Classification under Data Uncertainty

    Aug 30, 2026Mushir Akhtar, A. Varshney, A. Quadir +3Uncertainty-Aware TeachersLoss Function

  29. A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification

    Aug 30, 2026Kehan Long, Yiqi Zhao, Pol Mestres +3Conformal PredictionUncertainty Quantification

  30. Last Step Matters: Early Uncertainty Cannot Predict Failure in Long-Horizon Agents

    Aug 30, 2026Zongyue Li, Chengyue Yu, Lei Zang +3Early Failure PredictionLong-Horizon Agents

  31. LM-X: Explainable Vision--Language--Action Modeling via Progress, Event, and Uncertainty Prediction

    Aug 26, 2026Jin Lou, Zhiyuan Jing, Xupeng Wang +21Diffusion-Based Vision-Language-ActionsExplanations

  32. When Do Supervised UQ Ensembles Improve LLM Hallucination Detection? A Robustness Study

    Aug 25, 2026Mohit Singh Chauhan, Vipin Gyanchandani, Dylan BouchardLarge Language Model HallucinationHallucination Detection

  33. PropUQ-MAS: Propagation-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Multi-Agent Systems

    Aug 22, 2026Yaokun Liu, Yifan Liu, Daniel Yue Zhang +3Decentralized Multi-Agent SystemUncertainty Propagation

  34. Large Discovery Models: Empirically-grounded Model-Based Open-Ended Search

    Aug 16, 2026Zhongwei Yu, Yan Song, Xue Yan +9Hypothesis GenerationAgentic Discovery

  35. Conditional Validity for Adaptive Modality Acquisition: When the Policy Chooses Its Own Calibration Group

    Aug 16, 2026Melika BaghiCalibrated UncertaintyConstruct Validity

  36. Structure-preserving uncertainty quantification for GENERIC dynamics

    Aug 12, 2026Zequn He, Celia ReinaUncertainty Quantification

  37. Learning Under Treatment-Induced Label Indeterminacy with Expert Annotations of Counterfactual Outcomes: A Case Study in Neurological Prognostication

    Aug 12, 2026Xiaobin Shen, Chloe Y. H. Huang, Jonathan Elmer +1PrognosticsClinical Prediction

  38. Large Language Model-Driven Small-Capitalization Trading: Integrating Financial News Sentiment, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Technical Signals

    Aug 12, 2026Alireza Kargarzadeh, Nariman Khaledian, Navid Parvini +1Financial Sentiment AnalysisFinance Domain

  39. Confidence Calibration of Deep Learning Systems

    Aug 12, 2026Coby PensoCalibrated UncertaintyConformal Prediction

  40. Clustered Randomized Smoothing for Stochastic Prediction Functions

    Aug 12, 2026Eduardo Figueiredo, Frederik Mathiesen, Julian Schumann +3SmoothingStochastic

  41. Uncertainty-Aware Probabilistic Constrained Clustering from Entangled Pairwise Supervision

    Aug 12, 2026Shaojie Zhang, Ke ChenClusteringUncertainty-Aware Teachers

  42. CLAIM: Leading Open-domain Active Clarification of Large Language Models with Uncertainty Measurement

    Aug 12, 2026Kuangzhao Yang, Ziliang Zhao, Zhicheng DouClarificationLarge Language Model Uncertainty

  43. Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents

    Aug 12, 2026Dylan Bouchard, Mohit Singh ChauhanLarge Language Model UncertaintyLarge Language Model Agents

  44. Two-stage Odd Residual Flows for Mean-Preserving Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

    Aug 11, 2026Kiran Madhusudhanan, Christian Klötergens, Lars Schmidt-Thieme +1Retrieval-Augmented ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

  45. Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning for Genomics Applications: Insights from an Empirical Study

    Aug 11, 2026Sepideh Saran, Mahsa Ghanbari, Uwe OhlerUncertainty QuantificationBayesian Neural Networks

  46. VIDS-Seg: Towards Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Pediatric Cardiac Ultrasound Segmentation

    Aug 11, 2026Paul Fischer, Ece OzkanCardiac SegmentationLeft-Ventricular Segmentation

  47. Structure-Preserving Uncertainty Propagation in First-Order Proof Search

    Aug 10, 2026Tanel TammetTheoremDoubt

  48. Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces

    Aug 10, 2026Luís Marques, Kristian Popov, Dmitry BerensonCalibrated UncertaintyConformal Prediction

  49. Two-Step MV-DeepONet: Probabilistic Operator Learning for Uncertainty Propagation Driven by Random Input Fields

    Aug 10, 2026Yupei Nie, Lei Wang, Jiasen LiuUncertainty PropagationProbabilistic Operator Learning

  50. Physics-Informed Learning for Robust Acoustic Localization with Calibrated Uncertainty

    Aug 9, 2026Jennifer N. Kampe, Changwoo J. Lee, Xin Shen +5Sound Source LocalizationCalibrated Uncertainty

  51. Unsure but Certain: Uncovering the Representation-Confidence Gap in Diffusion Language Models

    Aug 9, 2026Saurabh Yadav, Badri Narayana Patro, Vijay Srinivas AgneeswaranDiffusion Language ModelsGeneralizable Ranking Purpose

  52. Conformal Calibration for Multi-Modal Regression with Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Ilia AziziMissing ModalitiesConformal Prediction

  53. ReCBM: Uncertainty-Gated Relational Reasoning for Concept Bottleneck Models

    Aug 7, 2026An Sui, Yuzhu Li, Fuping Wu +1Concept Bottleneck ModelsUncertainty-Aware Teachers

  54. Conformal Fusion Under Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Alireza MoayedikiaMissing ModalitiesMulti-Modal Fusion

  55. Online Conformal Prediction Beyond Feedback

    Aug 7, 2026Joar Skalse, Edoardo Pona, Osvaldo Simeone +1Conformal PredictionUncertainty Quantification

  56. KReF: Training-Free Retrieval for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting and Predictive Uncertainty

    Aug 7, 2026Yang Zhang, Rui SuPredictive UncertaintyTemporal Learnability

  57. Sample-Adaptive Latent Rewards for Uncertainty-Guided Diffusion Post-Training

    Aug 6, 2026Rui Li, Yuanzhi Liang, Ke Hao +4Uncertainty-Aware TeachersLatent Space

  58. Neuro-Symbolic Closed-Loop Control of Laser Powder Bed Fusion with an In-Loop Ontology

    Aug 6, 2026Gisuk Hong, Jaebong Cho, Hyunbo ChoAdditive ManufacturingModel Predictive Control

  59. Hybrid Probabilistic Zonotopes for Identifiable and Refinable Predictive Uncertainty

    Aug 5, 2026Zhen Zhang, Amr AlanwarPredictive UncertaintyConformal Prediction

  60. Sliding Sensors: Configurable Confidence in State Estimation for Continuum Robots

    Aug 5, 2026Ella Walsh, Spencer Teetaert, Eric Diller +2Continuum RobotsState Estimation