Reliable Uncertainty Quantification

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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Period ending 2026-09-14

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Period ending 2026-09-07

11 new papers

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  1. Beyond Point Prediction: Artificial Representative Trees with Uncertainty

    Sep 21, 2026Lea L. Mairhöfer, Silke Szymczak, Björn-Hergen Laabs +1Predictive UncertaintyInterpretable Models

  2. Compressed Active Subspaces for Scalable Bayesian Inference

    Sep 17, 2026Thomas Flynn, Sanket Jantre, Byung-Jun Yoon +1BayesianBillion-Parameter Models

  3. Attention Dispersion as a Diagnostic Signal for Hallucination in Large Language Models

    Sep 16, 2026Shardul P. More, Tanuja S. PawarLarge Language Model UncertaintyHallucinations

  4. Bracketing Uncertainty in Clustering Under the Manifold Hypothesis

    Sep 15, 2026Savik Kinger, Luciano Dyballa, Steven W. ZuckerManifold Learning MethodInput Uncertainties

  5. Bayesian Optimisation Using Product-of-Experts Gaussian Process Models with Uncertainty Calibration

    Sep 14, 2026Yean Hoon OngBayesian OptimizationGaussian Process

  6. Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction: Embedding PDE Consistency into Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Operators

    Sep 14, 2026Michael ChinConformal PredictionPartial Differential Equation Benchmarks

  7. Calibrated Ambiguity in Multimodal Language Models: Humans reach for cultural references, while models describe the picture

    Sep 14, 2026Cody Kommers, Mingrui Ye, Evelyn Gius +4Multi-Modal Large Language ModelsCultural Knowledge

  8. Decision-Oriented Uncertainty Quantification for Risk Control in Earth System Spatiotemporal Foundation Models

    Sep 13, 2026Ji Lu, Huiran Duan, Bo Zhao +5Predictive UncertaintyReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  9. Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades for Efficient Heterogeneous Model Collaboration

    Sep 12, 2026Yilin Zhang, Han Jiang, Cai Xu +2Calibrated Uncertainty

  10. Bio-inspired Learning and Decision-Making with Probabilistic In-Memory Computing Hardware: Part 1

    Sep 12, 2026Thomas Dalgaty, Eiji Kawasaki, Miguel de Prado +2Bio-Inspired FrameworkProbabilistic Inference

  11. Conformal Calibration Transfer

    Sep 11, 2026Achref DoulaConformal PredictionConformal Calibration

  12. Learning to Adapt and Calibrate: Score Distribution Alignment for Few-Shot Uncertainty Prediction in Medical VLMs

    Sep 9, 2026Xuan Cuong Ngo, Ngan LeFew-Shot LearningConformal Inference

  13. A Unifying Perspective on Probabilities as Model Predictions

    Sep 9, 2026Benedikt HöltgenProbabilityPredictive Uncertainty

  14. Distilling Image Prototypes for Guided Test-Time Adaptation

    Sep 9, 2026Liwen Wang, Xingbo Dong, Iman Yi Liao +4Continual Test-Time AdaptationImagenet

  15. Flexible Spectral-Normalized Neural Gaussian Process for Dynamic Aperture Prediction

    Sep 8, 2026Yousra El-Bachir, Frederik Van der Veken, Davide di Croce +4Gaussian ProcessBayesian Neural Networks

  16. AVCG: A Generalized Variational Framework for Counterfactual Generation under Hypothesis Distributions

    Sep 7, 2026Jamie Duell, Alejandro Jimenez Rodriguez, Mahault AlbarracinCounterfactual ExplanationCounterfactual Learning

  17. What Does an LLM-Agent Leaderboard Rank Actually Compare?

    Sep 7, 2026Wei-Jung HuangLeaderboardComparison

  18. Risk and Anomaly Identification for Distribution Network Optimal Operation Based on Reinforcement Learning and Uncertainty Quantification

    Sep 3, 2026Ziqi ZhangReliable Uncertainty QuantificationAnomalous Frame Detection

  19. AdaptNTK: Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification and Active Learning for Neural Network Potentials

    Aug 31, 2026Prajwal Ananth, Shuwen YueInteratomic PotentialsActive Learning

  20. CIG-RL: Curiosity-Driven Information-Guided Reinforcement Learning for Source Term Estimation in Uncertain Environments

    Aug 31, 2026Junhee Lee, Seunghwan Kim, Hongro Jang +4Efficient ExplorationUncertainty-Aware Inference

  21. When Prediction Error Is Not Enough: Evaluating Nuisance-Function Prediction for Causal Estimation

    Aug 30, 2026Cong CaoCausal InferencesReward-Prediction Error

  22. Robust Broad Learning System with Wave Loss for Classification under Data Uncertainty

    Aug 30, 2026Mushir Akhtar, A. Varshney, A. Quadir +3Uncertainty-Aware InferenceLoss Function

  23. A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification

    Aug 30, 2026Kehan Long, Yiqi Zhao, Pol Mestres +3Conformal PredictionReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  24. LM-X: Explainable Vision--Language--Action Modeling via Progress, Event, and Uncertainty Prediction

    Aug 26, 2026Jin Lou, Zhiyuan Jing, Xupeng Wang +21Pretrained Vision-Language-ActionRobotwin

  25. PropUQ-MAS: Propagation-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Multi-Agent Systems

    Aug 22, 2026Yaokun Liu, Yifan Liu, Daniel Yue Zhang +3Multi-Agent SystemsReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  26. Large Discovery Models: Empirically-grounded Model-Based Open-Ended Search

    Aug 16, 2026Zhongwei Yu, Yan Song, Xue Yan +9Generative ModelsUncertainty-Aware Inference

  27. Structure-preserving uncertainty quantification for GENERIC dynamics

    Aug 12, 2026Zequn He, Celia ReinaReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  28. Learning Under Treatment-Induced Label Indeterminacy with Expert Annotations of Counterfactual Outcomes: A Case Study in Neurological Prognostication

    Aug 12, 2026Xiaobin Shen, Chloe Y. H. Huang, Jonathan Elmer +1PrognosticsClinical Prediction

  29. Large Language Model-Driven Small-Capitalization Trading: Integrating Financial News Sentiment, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Technical Signals

    Aug 12, 2026Alireza Kargarzadeh, Nariman Khaledian, Navid Parvini +1Financial Sentiment AnalysisPortfolio Optimization

  30. Clustered Randomized Smoothing for Stochastic Prediction Functions

    Aug 12, 2026Eduardo Figueiredo, Frederik Mathiesen, Julian Schumann +3SmoothingPredictive Uncertainty

  31. CLAIM: Leading Open-domain Active Clarification of Large Language Models with Uncertainty Measurement

    Aug 12, 2026Kuangzhao Yang, Ziliang Zhao, Zhicheng DouLarge Language Model UncertaintyInput Uncertainties

  32. Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents

    Aug 12, 2026Dylan Bouchard, Mohit Singh ChauhanLarge Language Model UncertaintyLarge Language Model Agents

  33. Robust Ambiguity Detection (RAD) From Model- and Feature-Space Consistency

    Aug 12, 2026Manya Singh, Mark T. Keane, Arjun PakrashiPredictive UncertaintyRejection

  34. VIDS-Seg: Towards Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Pediatric Cardiac Ultrasound Segmentation

    Aug 11, 2026Paul Fischer, Ece OzkanWhole-Heart SegmentationVideo Object Segmentation

  35. Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces

    Aug 10, 2026Luís Marques, Kristian Popov, Dmitry BerensonCalibrated UncertaintyConformal Prediction

  36. Physics-Informed Learning for Robust Acoustic Localization with Calibrated Uncertainty

    Aug 9, 2026Jennifer N. Kampe, Changwoo J. Lee, Xin Shen +5Sound Source LocalizationCalibrated Uncertainty

  37. CUPA-T2*: Covariance-Aware Uncertainty Propagation and Alignment for T2* Mapping in Accelerated MRI

    Aug 9, 2026Gideon N. L. Rouwendaal, Natascha Niessen, Hannah Eichhorn +3Magnetic Resonance Imaging ReconstructionMagnetic Resonance Imaging

  38. ReCBM: Uncertainty-Gated Relational Reasoning for Concept Bottleneck Models

    Aug 7, 2026An Sui, Yuzhu Li, Fuping Wu +1Concept Bottleneck ModelsUncertainty-Aware Inference

  39. Conformal Fusion Under Missing Modalities

    Aug 7, 2026Alireza MoayedikiaMissing ModalitiesMultimodal Fusion

  40. Tracing sources of epistemic uncertainty in deep learning predictions: homo- and hetero-scedastic linearized estimators

    Aug 7, 2026Pierre Nodet, Thomas GeorgeEpistemic UncertaintyHeteroskedasticity

  41. KReF: Training-Free Retrieval for Long-Term Time-Series Forecasting and Predictive Uncertainty

    Aug 7, 2026Yang Zhang, Rui SuPredictive UncertaintyPosterior

  42. A Transferable Autologistic Model for Predicting Rare Failures in Heterogeneous Equipment

    Aug 7, 2026Islam Benamirouche, Djemel Ziou, Feriel FassPredictive MaintenanceTool Failures

  43. A Unified Risk View of Uncertainty: Posterior Risk for Disentanglement and Evaluation Beyond Proxies

    Aug 6, 2026Frieder Wizgall, Georg Tirpitz, Moritz Seiler +2Epistemic UncertaintyPosterior

  44. Neuro-Symbolic Closed-Loop Control of Laser Powder Bed Fusion with an In-Loop Ontology

    Aug 6, 2026Gisuk Hong, Jaebong Cho, Hyunbo ChoAdditive ManufacturingClosed-Loop Control

  45. Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) Model: A Computational Account of What Makes Design Options Worth Trying

    Aug 6, 2026Shimon Honda, Takuma Miyaguchi, Koji Koizumi +3Epistemic UncertaintyBayesian Experimental Design

  46. Hybrid Probabilistic Zonotopes for Identifiable and Refinable Predictive Uncertainty

    Aug 5, 2026Zhen Zhang, Amr AlanwarPredictive UncertaintyConformal Prediction

  47. Sliding Sensors: Configurable Confidence in State Estimation for Continuum Robots

    Aug 5, 2026Ella Walsh, Spencer Teetaert, Eric Diller +2Soft RobotsState Estimation

  48. Provable Limits and Certified Deferral for Verbalized Uncertainty in Small Language Models

    Aug 5, 2026Jianru ShenLarge Language Model UncertaintyConfidence Calibration

  49. SVI-DAG: A Structured Variational Inference Approach to Bayesian Causal Discovery

    Aug 5, 2026Shrenik ZinageCausal Foundation ModelsBayesian Networks

  50. Quality Diversity for Reliable Data Driven Time-Use Optimization

    Aug 5, 2026Aneta Neumann, Ty Stanford, Dorothea Dumuid +1Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationCode Optimization

  51. Local Violation Certification for Linear Predict-Then-Optimize Pipelines

    Aug 5, 2026Ş. İlker Birbil, Wenhao ChiViolationInput Uncertainties

  52. Leveraging System-Level Observations to Inform Bayesian Learning of Model Parameters for Quantitative Verification

    Aug 4, 2026Simos Gerasimou, Xingyu ZhaoEpistemic UncertaintyBayesian

  53. DUD: Decoupled Update Dynamics for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

    Aug 4, 2026Yixin Bu, Runze Xia, Guanyun Zou +3Large Language Model UncertaintyReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  54. Conformal risk control for model-form uncertainty in parametric non-intrusive reduced-order models

    Aug 4, 2026Edgar Jaber, Rémy Vallot, Thibault Dairay +1Reduced-Order ModelsReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  55. Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Modern Art

    Aug 3, 2026Tirtho Roy, Ushashi Bhattacharjee, Showrav Kumar Saha +3Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationRandom

  56. Analytic Planning under Uncertainty with Moment Closure

    Aug 3, 2026Shishir Sharma, Doina PrecupPredictive UncertaintyValue Functions

  57. Intention Inference Under Execution Noise: Separating Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Social Dilemmas

    Aug 3, 2026Kival Mahadew, Jonathan ShockPartially Observable Markov Decision ProcessInitial Human Belief Distributions

  58. Predictive Set Theory: A Generative Framework for Cognitive Architecture with Operationalized Core Mechanisms

    Aug 3, 2026Yiyang YuPredictive CodingCognitive Science

  59. Explainable AI for the EU Right to Explanation: A Systematic Review of the Law-XAI Translation Gap

    Aug 3, 2026Benjamin Fresz, Elena Dubovitskaya, Marco F. HuberExplainable Artificial IntelligenceArtificial Intelligence Governance

  60. Accelerating Evolutionary Strategy via Rao-Blackwellizing Realization of Uncertain Input

    Aug 3, 2026So Nakashima, Tetsuya J. KobayashiEvolutionary SearchRobust Optimization