Reliable Uncertainty Quantification

Random forests (RFs) predict well but are opaque, whereas single decision trees are interpretable but unstable. Artificial representative trees (ARTs) were developed as interpretable surrogate models for RFs, but their use as standalone prediction models with uncertainty quantification has not been systematically investigated. We combine ARTs with leaf-wise Mondrian conformal predictive systems (CPS), enabling a single tree to provide continuous predictions, prediction intervals, and probabilities of exceeding arbitrary thresholds. We compared ARTs with CPS against decision trees with CPS and separate regression and probability trees across five simulation scenarios, 21 benchmark datasets, and a cross-sectional NHANES example data set. Repeated cross-validation assessed predictive performance, interpretability, and stability. ARTs with CPS yield compact, structurally stable trees with substantially more reproducible split-variable selection than decision trees across benchmark datasets and NHANES. Decision trees showed slightly better predictive performance and narrower prediction intervals, while coverage was broadly comparable. CPS-based trees generally achieved lower and less variable Brier scores than multi-model approaches. Combining ARTs with CPS therefore provides a single, interpretable, and stable model for continuous predictions and calibrated probabilities, balancing predictive performance with reproducibility and transparency in settings where stability and interpretability are essential.

Active subspace methods provide a framework for quantifying predictive uncertainty in high-dimensional models by identifying and performing inference along parameter directions that have the greatest influence on the model output. However, the construction of active subspaces requires storing many full-dimensional model gradients, which becomes prohibitive as model size increases. We address this limitation by proposing Compressed Active Subspaces (CAS), a scalable approach that first maps the model parameters to a compressed space using a structured isometric embedding and then constructs the active subspace within this reduced parameterization. Our approach substantially reduces the memory required for active subspace construction and enables Bayesian inference for large models where standard active subspace methods become impractical. We demonstrate the scalability of CAS on neural networks of increasing size while maintaining predictive performance and robust uncertainty estimates.

Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently exhibit hallucinations, presenting a major barrier to reliability in complex reasoning tasks. While traditional detection methods rely on output-based confidence metrics, these logits are often miscalibrated by modern alignment techniques. In this paper, we investigate the temporal volatility of internal attention mechanisms as an alternative diagnostic signal for hallucination that does not depend on output calibration. By introducing an unsupervised metric for attention dispersion, we show that epistemic uncertainty leaves a measurable trace within intermediate layers, where spikes in attention entropy are associated with reasoning breakdowns. We evaluate our approach on mathematical reasoning benchmarks (GSM8K and MATH-500) using the Qwen2.5 model family (1.5B and 3B parameters), finding statistically significant AUC improvements of up to +0.076 over output-based baselines across all tested conditions. These findings suggest that attention dispersion is a promising complement to traditional hallucination detection methods, requiring further investigation across broader model families and task domains.

The manifold hypothesis suggests a natural criterion for clustering: partition data according to the manifold component from which each point is drawn. Whether two components are separable depends on a geometric tradeoff: the ambient separation between components versus the largest gap in sampling. In practice, this tradeoff is rarely assessed explicitly, leading standard methods to over-commit to a single clustering assignment even when the data do not support a unique answer. We formalize this tradeoff by combining intrinsic manifold geometry (volume growth and reach) with sample-level quantities (fill distance and density), yielding a threshold phenomenon for mutual-$k$-nearest-neighbor graphs: when the offset-to-fill ratio exceeds a conservative upper threshold, component separation is preserved; below a lower threshold, components fuse. The gap between these thresholds defines a geometric uncertainty zone in which the number of clusters is not identifiable from the data. Nevertheless, conventional approaches still seek one: sweeping parameters (an engineering approach) or fitting a generative mixture model (a model-based approach). Rather than forcing a single estimate of the number of clusters, we propose Manifold-Based Clustering (MBC), which returns an explicit bracket interval to quantify the underlying data uncertainty. This bracket acts as an empirically calibrated diagnostic: it narrows when a single resolution is supported, widens when multiple resolutions coexist, and collapses to one when no separated structure is detectable. Empirically, we find that many real datasets lie within the uncertainty zone rather than admitting one clear answer. Our results suggest that ambiguity in cluster number is often intrinsic, and should be quantified rather than resolved.

Bayesian optimisation (BO) typically relies on a single global Gaussian process (GP) model as its surrogate model. However, GP regression has cubic computational complexity in the number of training data points, limiting its applicability to large-scale optimisation problems. The product-of-experts Gaussian process model with uncertainty calibration (GP-pro-c) mitigates this limitation by combining multiple local GP experts, enabling improved uncertainty quantification, reduced computational cost, and preservation of global correlations. Despite these desirable properties, the use of GP-pro-c in BO has not been thoroughly studied. This paper introduces BO-pro-c, a Bayesian optimisation algorithm that uses GP-pro-c as its surrogate model, and evaluate its performance across a diverse range of BO settings. Experimental results suggest that BO-pro-c maintains competitive optimisation performance while achieving a 0.9% reduction in simple regret and a 39.4% reduction in computational overhead relative to a BO algorithm based on a single global GP model.

Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) achieve remarkable accuracy in approximating solutions to partial differential equations (PDEs). However, providing rigorous uncertainty estimates remains an open challenge. We propose Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction (PI-CP), a framework that embeds PDE residuals into the nonconformity score of split conformal prediction, producing prediction intervals that are (i) distribution-free with provable coverage guarantees, and (ii) spatially adaptive when the PDE residual correlates with prediction error -- tighter where physics is well-satisfied, wider where it is violated. Additionally, we prove that FNO's translation equivariance creates a fundamental approximation barrier for PDEs with Dirichlet boundary conditions, and show that coordinate channels resolve this with up to 63x error reduction. We validate PI-CP across six physics scenarios -- heat conduction (2D/3D), structural mechanics (2D/3D), Darcy flow, and Navier-Stokes -- demonstrating consistent 89-91% coverage for all four Conformal methods, while MC Dropout and Deep Ensembles are unstable (82-100%). FNO outperforms CNN and DeepONet by 10-12x.

Ambiguity is often treated as a bug for AI systems to resolve---but in human communication and culture, ambiguity can also be a generative resource. From humour to politics to art, people express themselves in words and images that are open enough to invite different interpretations, yet constrained enough to be interpretable. We operationalise this notion of calibrated ambiguity with a task drawn from the parlour game Dixit. We compare differences in clues generated by human vs multimodal language models, based on a novel coding rubric for calibrated ambiguity, and find that models consistently exhibit ambiguity collapse (i.e., their outputs are over-specified, leaving no room for multiple legitimate interpretations). Unlike human clues, AI-generated clues also exhibit cultural flattening; they almost never make reference to culturally-situated knowledge, even when prompted to use allusion and figurative language.

Earth system modeling is shifting from task-specific predictors toward foundation models with general spatiotemporal representation capabilities. Although these models can jointly encode dynamic Earth fields, external forcings, and static geographic context for multistep forecasting, accurate point predictions or statistically calibrated intervals alone are insufficient for high-impact applications such as extremeweather warning, flood control, renewable-energy dispatch, and emergency resource allocation. What matters in practice is whether predictive uncertainty can be translated into reliable decision risk under specific actions, loss functions, and risk preferences. We propose a decision-oriented uncertainty quantification framework for Earth system spatiotemporal foundation models. The framework produces predictive distributions of future states and uses a decision risk adapter to map forecast samples, decision context, and utility functions into action-conditional risks. A utility-aware calibration module further enforces reliability at the downstream decision-loss level rather than only at the forecast-value level. Calibrated risks are then used to select warning, dispatch, inspection, or resource-allocation actions. Compared with the strongest baseline, the proposed method reduces decision regret by 18.7%, lowers the missed-event rate from 14.2% to 9.1%, and improves expected utility by 11.6%, while maintaining 90.4% predictive coverage and reducing decision calibration error from 0.083 to 0.047. These results suggest that decision-oriented uncertainty quantification can improve the robustness and operational value of Earth system foundation models in risk-sensitive applications.

Heterogeneous model collaboration seeks to exploit the complementary strengths of different models to balance predictive performance and inference cost. Existing approaches typically rely either on trained routers, which tie routing decisions to a fixed task and model pool, or on raw-confidence cascades, whose thresholds lack consistent reliability semantics across heterogeneous models. Consequently, these approaches adapt poorly to changing model pools and deployment budgets. We propose Calibration-Aware Uncertainty Cascades (CAUC), a simple post-hoc framework that independently calibrates each model's confidence and selects deployment policies using validation data. The resulting calibrated confidence scores establish a common reliability scale for accepting an early prediction, invoking a stronger model, or selectively combining model outputs. This unified decision criterion decouples deployment policies from any particular model pool or operating budget. We further show theoretically that calibration gives confidence thresholds an explicit selective-risk interpretation, whereas uncalibrated scores offer no comparable reliability guarantee. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, across six language benchmarks, CAUC achieves an average relative accuracy improvement of 1.9% over strong-model-only inference while avoiding approximately 47% of strong-model calls. On image classification benchmarks, it maintains or improves predictive performance while reducing measured GFLOPs by up to 57%.

Learning and decision-making in animals are often modeled as Bayesian processes, where sensory evidence is integrated with prior beliefs to guide behavior in the face of uncertainty. But what are the inherent neural dynamics that give rise to this ability, and how could they be replicated in computing systems? This abstract discusses a biologically grounded framework in which noisy neural and synaptic dynamics perform inference and learning via stochastic sampling from an internal energy function, capturing uncertainty over latent states and model parameters through neural and synaptic variability, respectively. This enables approaches such as predictive coding networks to account for epistemic uncertainty via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Drawing a parallel between intrinsic noise in biological systems and electrical noise in emerging probabilistic analogue memory technologies, we highlight how analogue in-memory computing hardware naturally emerges as the solution for massively scalable and energy-efficient probabilistic inference.

Conformal prediction converts point predictions into set-valued predictions with coverage guarantees under exchangeability between calibration and deployment data. We study conformal calibration transfer, where this requirement fails because labeled calibration is available only in a source space, while prediction sets are needed in a target space linked to the source through unlabeled paired observations (e.g., paired modalities or sensor changes). We propose Transported Conformal Calibration (TCC): we transport labeled source calibration into the target space using the paired data, and then correct residual post-transport mismatch using only unlabeled target inputs. We instantiate this correction with two complementary methods: TCC-KS, which uses a label-free uncertainty surrogate to detect mismatch and adjust calibration conservatively, and weighted-TCC, which reweights transported calibration toward the target domain for improved efficiency when weights are stable. We provide finite-sample target-domain coverage guarantees that adapt to an observable measure of mismatch. Across CIFAR-100-C, Tiny-ImageNet-C, and SEN12MS, we show reliable target-domain coverage transfer without labeled target calibration data, with label-free diagnostics that predict when correction is needed.

Uncertainty estimation for medical vision--language models (VLMs) using conformal prediction has gained increasing attention due to its distribution-free coverage guarantees. However, standard conformal prediction relies on exchangeability between calibration and test data and typically requires a sufficiently large calibration set to obtain reliable coverage. These assumptions are difficult to satisfy in few-shot transfer settings, where only a small labeled support set is available to adapt a pretrained VLM to a new medical task, while an unlabeled query set is used for evaluation. Supervised fine-tuning on the support set changes the model parameters and consequently shifts the nonconformity score distribution, breaking exchangeability between calibration and query samples and leading to unreliable coverage under distribution shift. Existing transductive conformal adaptation methods often preserve validity by avoiding supervised updates. While this helps maintain conformal assumptions, it underutilizes the scarce labeled support data and limits task adaptation, which is the primary objective in few-shot learning. In this setting, conformal prediction should serve as an uncertainty estimation layer that supports the adapted model, rather than preventing adaptation itself. To this end, we propose AlignCP, a framework that reconciles supervised few-shot adaptation with conformal uncertainty estimation under non-exchangeability. AlignCP learns a reweighted calibration distribution that reduces the score-level discrepancy between the labeled support set and the unlabeled query set. By aligning the one-dimensional nonconformity score distributions, AlignCP aims to close the coverage gap induced by adaptation without requiring query labels.

Although probabilistic statements are ubiquitous, foundational disagreements persist about their understanding, as exemplified by debates between Bayesians and frequentists; moreover, it is unclear when and why acting on them actually leads to desirable outcomes. Here, we argue that every probability is the output of a \emph{prediction method}, that is, it depends on both a particular way of constructing abstractions and a way of transforming them into predictions. Through this, we provide a unifying perspective on supposedly different kinds of probabilities and show that even supposedly objective ones are model-dependent. We demonstrate that when a finite calibration criterion is met, one can anticipate the distribution of utilities for a given policy and inform successful decision-making on finite sets of events. Based on the notion of prediction methods, inductive arguments, and the probability calculus, we explain the feasibility of the calibration criterion in many settings. Overall, we develop a coherent perspective on probabilities and their use, connecting key intuitions behind other interpretations along the way.

Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) enhances the robustness of models against distribution shifts but faces two critical challenges: error accumulation from noisy pseudo-labels and catastrophic forgetting of source knowledge. Uncertainty-based approaches designed to mitigate error accumulation often yield overconfident or computationally expensive estimates, while strategies intended to prevent forgetting via prototype replay rely on static representations that easily become misaligned as the model adapts. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel framework, Distilling Image Prototype for Guided Test-Time Adaptation (DIPTTA). The core of the proposed approach is the introduction of a Distill Image Prototype (DIP), a compact set of synthetic images that serves as a dynamic and regenerative anchor of source knowledge. This prototype enables a dynamic feature replay mechanism that continuously generates feature prototypes aligned with the current state of the model, thus effectively preventing catastrophic forgetting. Furthermore, the DIP anchors a source-calibrated uncertainty estimation method, which provides a less biased measure of sample reliability by leveraging stable source knowledge, thereby robustly suppressing error accumulation. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks demonstrate that DIPTTA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, particularly under severe domain shifts. The source code is available at https://github.com/LiwenWang919/DIPTTA.

We address the challenge of scalable uncertainty quantification in large-scale scientific applications, where complex state-of-the-art machine learning methods are often computationally infeasible. Our primary contribution is a simple yet effective empirical Bayes method for automatically tuning the hyperparameters of a flexible, heteroscedastic Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process. This approach retains the expressiveness and uncertainty-awareness of semi-Bayesian neural models while significantly reducing the computational burden by integrating hyperparameter learning directly into the training loop. We demonstrate the practical impact of our method on the task of estimating the dynamic aperture in circular particle accelerators, a fundamental problem in high-energy physics colliders and storage rings, using simulation data from the case of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. Traditional approaches to DA estimation require extensive particle-tracking simulations, which are prohibitively time-consuming and resource-intensive. Our results show that the proposed method achieves competitive predictive performance and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates at much lower computational cost than state-of-the-art approaches. We stress that, beyond this application, the proposed empirical Bayes framework offers a general solution for training heteroscedastic neural models in situations where manual hyperparameter tuning is impractical. Accordingly, we anticipate that this framework can be applied to other domains that encounter comparable computational limitations.

Counterfactual explanations formalize "what-if" scenarios by identifying modifications to an input instance that obtain a desired alternative prediction. Traditionally, whether generated via instance-specific optimization or amortized single pass models, these approaches rely on a single, deterministic point-estimate predictor. However, this ignores predictive uncertainty and hypothesis variability, leading to brittle explanations that frequently become invalid if the underlying model is retrained or updated. To address this fragility, we propose the Amortized Variational Counterfactual Generator (AVCG), a generalized optimization framework that formulates counterfactual generation as optimization over an arbitrary distribution of plausible predictive hypotheses rather than a single deterministic predictor. This formulation naturally accommodates Bayesian posteriors, Rashomon-restricted hypothesis spaces, and other uncertainty representations within a unified optimization framework. Evaluation across multiple benchmark datasets demonstrates that the AVCG framework produces counterfactual explanations that remain highly valid under predictive uncertainty and model changes, while maintaining competitive plausibility and single-pass runtime performance.

An LLM-agent leaderboard invites a familiar inference: an agent ranked above another is the better agent. Public evaluation logs may not support that conclusion when systems differ in task mixture, label source, release detail, or cost rule. We study what leaderboard scores estimate and when they justify pairwise superiority conclusions. Our estimand-aware pairwise procedure states the comparison target and measurement source, checks common support, and evaluates the supported difference using a stated uncertainty rule and practical margin. Controlled checks evaluate the decision labels under known finite-sample conditions and show why uncertainty must be included when judging sensitivity to target reweighting. Across SWE-bench, AgentRewardBench, and tau2-bench, close rank differences are often unresolved; proxy labels and utility rules can also change which system is selected. DataAgentBench and Open Agent show what remains estimable from coarser public records. A leaderboard score summarizes a released evaluation, whereas a fine-grained superiority claim additionally depends on the estimand and uncertainty rule used to interpret the difference.

Reliable operation of modern distribution networks requires timely identification of operational risks and anomalous events under pervasive uncertainty. In practice, operators must identify risks that are inherent in stochastic yet in-distribution conditions, and anomalies that correspond to out-of-distribution behaviors such as unusual load patterns, extreme weather or cyber-physical attacks. This paper addresses this joint risk and anomaly identification problem for optimal distribution network operation and proposes a deep reinforcement learning framework that is explicitly uncertainty aware. We integrate distributional and Bayesian deep reinforcement learning to realize a second- order uncertainty quantification scheme that decomposes total uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components, which are respectively used to characterize inherent risk and out-of- distribution anomalies. The resulting epistemic estimates drive both exploration during training and out-of-distribution detec- tion with fallback control during deployment, whereas aleatoric estimates are used to characterize intrinsic operational risk. Simulation results demonstrate the performance of our DRL agent and the effectiveness of the uncertainty quantification.

Machine learning interatomic potentials bridge the gap between quantum chemical precision and classical computational speed, enabling molecular dynamics simulations with first-principles accuracy. Their reliability is often improved through active learning, which iteratively expands the training set by identifying uncertain, out-of-distribution configurations. Existing uncertainty-quantification methods often involve a trade-off between computational cost and reliability, and generally cannot account for redundancy as an acquisition batch is assembled. Here, we introduce AdaptNTK, a single-model framework that measures uncertainty as a regularized Mahalanobis distance in empirical neural tangent kernel (NTK) feature space. With the NTK features fixed during acquisition, the uncertainty depends on the acquired configurations but not their reference labels. This allows the uncertainty to be updated recursively after each selection without retraining, reducing redundancy within an acquisition batch. On held-out rMD17 data, AdaptNTK achieves the highest mean correlations with force errors (Spearman 0.68, Pearson 0.71) and matches a three-member ensemble in error retention. In active learning experiments, AdaptNTK achieves the lowest force errors across rMD17 and Transition-1X, with particularly strong performance on transition-state configurations in Transition-1X. AdaptNTK provides a 2.6-fold speedup per Transition-1X cycle relative to the ensemble, providing efficient single-model uncertainty estimation with sequential updates for data-efficient active learning.

Source term estimation (STE), which aims to estimate key properties of the gas source, is essential for identifying hazardous gas releases. Information-theoretic approaches have been adopted for autonomous STE using mobile sensors due to robustness in noisy environments, yet their online action selection incurs substantial computational cost. Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) provides a promising alternative with its fast decision-making capability. In DRL-based STE, the agent selects actions based on belief states of the source term updated from noisy measurement sequences. However, existing methods rely on random exploration or solely on belief uncertainty reduction without an effective exploration strategy in DRL, which can limit policy robustness in noisy environments. To address this, we propose a curiosity-driven information-guided reinforcement learning for robust and efficient STE. The proposed method promotes active exploration of novel belief state transitions that have not been sufficiently explored during training. We further introduce an uncertainty-adaptive active perception reward to guide efficient source search under uncertainty. Simulations under high-noise conditions and real-world experiments demonstrate the robustness and feasibility of the proposed framework, highlighting its potential for practical STE problems.

Prediction error is widely used to evaluate nuisance-function estimators in causal inference, but its relationship with causal estimator performance may differ across performance measures. We studied this question in a partially linear model using Monte Carlo simulations. We compared ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized additive models (GAMs), XGBoost, and Double Machine Learning with XGBoost (DML-XGBoost), evaluating nuisance-function prediction error, bias, RMSE, and 95% confidence interval coverage. We also examined a simple joint-error measure based on the absolute cross-product of estimation errors from the exposure and outcome nuisance functions. Across the simulated settings, XGBoost had the lowest RMSE among the non-oracle methods, while DML-XGBoost generally provided better confidence interval coverage. Prediction error did not consistently track causal bias across methods and settings, and the method with the best point-estimation performance did not necessarily have the best confidence interval coverage. The joint-error measure was only weakly associated with causal bias and did not provide a useful standalone measure of causal performance. These results suggest that prediction error is useful for assessing nuisance-function estimation, but it should not be treated as a direct measure of the quality of the resulting causal estimator.

Broad Learning System (BLS) offers an efficient alternative to deep architectures by enabling fast learning through randomized feature mapping and closed-form solutions. However, its reliance on squared error loss makes it highly sensitive to noise, outliers, and corrupted labels, limiting its reliability in real-world scenarios. To address this limitation, we propose Wave-BLS, a robust broad learning framework that integrates the wave loss function, which is asymmetric, bounded, and smooth, enabling controlled penalization of large errors. The proposed formulation replaces the standard least-squares objective with a wave-loss-based optimization problem, solved efficiently using a Nesterov accelerated gradient (NAG)-based scheme without requiring matrix inversion, thereby improving scalability. Extensive experiments on 30 UCI benchmark datasets demonstrate that Wave-BLS consistently outperforms classical BLS and several robust variants. Statistical validation using Friedman and Nemenyi post-hoc tests confirms the significance of the observed improvements. Furthermore, robustness evaluations under controlled noise and outlier injection reveal that Wave-BLS exhibits substantially slower performance degradation compared to BLS, even in challenging contamination settings. These results establish Wave-BLS as a stable and robust alternative to existing broad learning models for learning under data uncertainty.

Uncertainty quantification from finite data is central to machine learning, optimization, and automation systems, where decisions must remain reliable under limited samples and test-time distribution shift. Conformal prediction (CP) and distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offer two complementary approaches: CP constructs data-dependent prediction sets with distribution-free finite-sample validity under exchangeability, while DRO optimizes worst-case performance over an ambiguity set around an empirical distribution. We develop a unified probabilistic perspective on CP and DRO by viewing both as ways to turn finite calibration data into a data-dependent quantile estimator that a test score falls below with high probability. From this perspective, CP and DRO correct the empirical quantile along two coordinates of the same family of estimators: CP inflates the quantile level, whereas DRO shifts the quantile value through an ambiguity radius. Both methods provide the same calibration-conditional guarantee for the true distribution, requiring the target coverage to hold with high probability over the calibration sample. Their constructions differ, however: CP uses a closed-form, distribution-free level correction, while DRO uses a value-space correction whose certified radius depends on properties of the unknown distribution and additionally guarantees coverage uniformly over the ambiguity set. This distinction emerges in the tails of the score distribution. Because CP relies on sparse upper-tail order statistics of the calibration samples, its level inflation barely moves the estimator when those samples are dense near the target quantile but overshoots when they are sparse, whereas a well-chosen DRO radius corrects in value space and may avoid this overshoot.

Large-scale vision--language--action (VLA) policies have advanced generalist robot control, yet most remain stimulus-to-action black boxes: actions are exposed, but their explanatory state is not. They provide no native account of three explanatory signals: task progress, the next semantic transition, or local command reliability. Prior work shows that progress and event structure aid long-horizon control and that uncertainty supports monitoring; however, such capabilities are typically added or extracted only after action pretraining. The field therefore lacks a VLA foundation model whose explanatory state is jointly pretrained with control. Drawing on biological sensorimotor organization, in which outcome-sensitive, event-segmented, and probabilistic predictions structure behavior, we introduce LM-X. LM-X learns three directly supervised online signals: return-to-go (RTG) estimates visible progress and state quality; event-to-go (ETG) predicts the action sequence to the next semantic event; and heteroscedastic action-flow variance reports local command reliability. RTG conditions ETG and both condition action generation; uncertainty is estimated inside the action expert, making explanation part of control rather than a post-hoc description. We pretrain LM-X on more than 20,000 hours of heterogeneous real-robot trajectories, including over 1,000 hours of failed rollouts. A controlled gate favors joint over post-hoc training. LM-X achieves 74.1% success on 50 randomized-hard RoboTwin2.0 tasks and 73.5% on seven real-robot tasks, compared with 55.4% and 50.7% for GR00T N1.7. Its signals track progress and regression, anticipate event-scale motion, detect high-error actions, and provide advance failure warning. These results establish LM-X as an explainable VLA foundation model that couples transparent predictive state with stronger generalist control.

LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) solve complex tasks through communication among role-specialized agents. However, inter-agent dependencies introduce reliability risks beyond isolated agent failures. For instance, errors in intermediate messages could be inherited and amplified by downstream agents. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods mainly target isolated responses or single-agent reasoning, and therefore fail to capture uncertainty propagation in MAS. To this end, we propose PropUQ-MAS, an error propagation-aware UQ framework that represents MAS execution as a communication-structured graph and estimates each step's reliability by combining local uncertainty with uncertainty inherited from upstream messages. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PropUQ-MAS consistently improves UQ in MAS, with average relative gains of +6.10% in AUROC and +47.58% in PRR.

Scientific discovery often involves optimising expensive-to-evaluate objectives over vast, structured, and open-ended hypothesis spaces, such as molecules, protein sequences, and computer programs. Generative models such as large language models (LLMs) provide expressive priors over such spaces, but their likelihoods and self-assessments are unreliable proxies for the objectives and calibrated epistemic uncertainty, especially for novel candidates outside the observed data distribution. We introduce the Large Discovery Model (LDM), an empirically grounded recurrent architecture that couples a generative model with a Bayesian non-parametric reward surrogate model. The generative model proposes and refines candidate designs, while the surrogate predicts their performance and quantifies uncertainty, yielding an uncertainty-aware value that guides candidate generation, refinement, and selection. The discovery memory and the surrogate model are continually updated as each new experimental observation arrives. We evaluate LDM on three scenarios spanning different design modalities and objectives, including neural-network training, antibody design, and molecular optimisation. Compared to LLM-only reflection or traditional statistical search across these domains, LDM achieves a $2.4\times$ greater reduction in validation BPB, an $18.2\%$ relative decrease in binding energy, and more than $60\%$ relative gains in molecular multi-objective performance. These results suggests that LDM could serve as a general-purpose discovery engine for effective search over open-ended hypothesis spaces.

Structure-preserving machine learning embeds physical structure directly into model architectures, yet uncertainty quantification (UQ) for such hard-constrained models remains limited because standard UQ methods may violate the encoded admissibility conditions, require architectural modifications, or impose substantial computational costs. In this work, we propose Structure-Preserving Epistemic Neural Networks (S-PENNs), a general framework for UQ in scientific machine learning models with hard architectural constraints, and instantiate it for GENERIC (General Equation for Non-Equilibrium Reversible-Irreversible Coupling) dynamics. S-PENNs preserve the structural constraints of a pretrained model by attaching lightweight epinets to its constrained components, ensuring that every sampled realization remains physically admissible by construction. When applied to GENERIC dynamics, such a proposed framework yields thermodynamically consistent rollouts that preserve the first and second laws. Furthermore, we combine S-PENNs with split conformal prediction as a post-hoc calibration method to produce prediction intervals with finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees. We validate S-PENNs on three numerical examples: a harmonic oscillator coupled to a heat bath and an idealized chemical motor, both governed by ODEs, and a one-dimensional viscoplastic model governed by PDEs. Across all three examples, S-PENNs produce thermodynamically consistent stochastic realizations and well-calibrated prediction intervals while reducing the computational cost by about one to three orders of magnitude compared to deep ensembles. Although the present study focuses on GENERIC dynamics, S-PENNs can be extended more broadly to scientific machine learning models in computational mechanics with either hard or soft constraints.

Clinical prediction models are often developed as if the outcome of interest were cleanly observed for every patient. This assumption fails when treatment decisions make the clinically relevant outcome permanently unobservable. As a case study of this problem, we consider post-cardiac-arrest neurological prognostication using a cohort of 2,497 patients, including 1,429 patients whose outcomes were rendered indeterminate by treatment decisions. These patients with indeterminate outcomes were reviewed by independent clinical experts, who provided their guesses of counterfactual outcomes about what would have happened to the patients. We refer to these patients as uncertain cases. We also have patients for whom we observe their clinically relevant outcomes; we refer to these patients as certain cases. We propose a framework for evaluating prediction models that explicitly splits the evaluation between certain and uncertain cases. Here, we cannot easily evaluate both types of cases in a uniform manner as the available target labels differ. We then propose a simple prediction model that uses target labels from both certain and uncertain cases in a manner that allows us to trade off between them. Across the proposed neural model and a collection of tabular baselines, models with similar certain-case AUROC can nevertheless differ substantially in both certain-case Brier score and their probability estimates for uncertain cases. Improving alignment with target labels of uncertain cases for our proposed model generally comes at the cost of worse accuracy on certain cases, highlighting an explicit tradeoff that standard evaluation conceals. These results show that when treatment decisions determine whether clinically meaningful outcomes remain observable, conventional evaluation metrics can miss important failure modes in the very patients for whom prognostic support matters most.

Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such signals into portfolio construction. We study an uncertainty-aware construction that feeds model-predicted risk -- decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic components -- directly into the covariance matrix of portfolio allocators, rather than treating portfolio risk as fixed or adjusting only expected returns. We evaluate the pipeline on Russell 2000 equities under three stock-selection regimes: a pure-alpha trigger that isolates abnormal stock moves not explained by macro indicators, a pure-beta trigger that captures macro-indicator moves before the stock itself fires, and a beta trigger in which both channels agree. Across the full holding-period grid, the separated pure-alpha and pure-beta legs usually dominate the beta intersection on Sharpe and return. Two horizons are especially informative. At one day, pure beta can work under low and moderate transaction costs because it captures immediate lead-lag spillovers from liquid macro and sector indicators into exposed small-cap stocks, but this advantage disappears at 100 bps when turnover and microstructure noise dominate. At 40 days, pure beta works for a different reason: slower macro repricing overtakes the firm-specific pure-alpha channel. The strongest conservative row is pure beta with GPT-4o mini sentiment, a Student-t target, a 40-day holding period, and risk parity allocation, reaching Sharpe 2.33 at 100 bps. The results suggest that stock-selection regime and allocator choice matter at least as much as the sentiment model, and that separating firm-specific and macro-exposure triggers is more informative than requiring both to fire simultaneously.

Modern stochastic predictors can model rich, multi-modal outcome distributions. However, this expressive power comes with challenges in ensuring robust predictions $-$ a critical requirement in safety-critical domains. Randomized smoothing is a leading technique for improving robustness, particularly against adversarial perturbations. Yet, in stochastic multi-modal regression settings, randomized smoothing often fails due to mode collapse, yielding averaged predictions that do not reflect the underlying distribution. To address this limitation, we propose clustered $α$-smoothing, a framework that (1) partitions noisy samples using an arbitrary clustering algorithm, (2) applies $α$-smoothing locally within each cluster, and (3) combines the resulting predictions into a mixture distribution. By interpreting the smoothing distribution as a mixture of $α$-smoothers, we derive a lower bound on the probability that the smoothed prediction lies within a union of compact regions corresponding to distinct modes. We empirically evaluate our framework on two benchmarks, demonstrating substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods. In stochastic trajectory prediction on a driving simulator dataset, our approach achieves, on average, a $27\%$ lower Wasserstein distance to the ground-truth distribution compared to $α$-smoothing. In quadrotor control, where modes correspond to distinct feasible paths to a target, our method reduces the collision rate by $81\%$ relative to the state-of-the-art randomized smoothing.

In open-domain human-computer interaction scenarios, large language models (LLMs) frequently encounter user queries that are ambiguous or incomplete. In such cases, directly producing an answer often leads to overgeneralized, erroneous, or low-information responses. In contrast, asking clarifying questions can substantially improve interaction quality. However, existing approaches still rely heavily on manually annotated data or preference alignment to address two fundamental challenges: when clarification is necessary, and which aspect of the query should be clarified. This reliance incurs high annotation costs and limits generalization. To address these challenges, we propose CLAIM, an uncertainty-driven framework for active clarification learning in open-domain settings. CLAIM eliminates the need for explicit human preference annotations by quantifying query uncertainty through the entropy induced by answer disagreements across multiple models. This uncertainty signal is then used to construct high-quality synthetic data, enabling the training of a unified clarification decision model through a combination of supervised learning and reinforcement learning. Specifically, we propose an entropy-driven synthetic data generation pipeline that integrates entropy-based uncertainty estimation with semantic clustering and reasoning-based judgments, enabling reliable automatic annotation of clarification requirements. To train CLAIM, we formulate the clarification process as a structured decision generation problem and adopt a training paradigm that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) with group-relative policy optimization (GRPO). Experimental results demonstrate that CLAIM can learn stable and generalizable clarification strategies without relying on manually labeled data, offering a low-cost and robust solution for proactive understanding in real-world open-domain interactions with LLMs.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for language models are typically evaluated on single-turn outputs, where uncertainty is attached to one generated answer. For LLM agents, however, the unit of observation is an interactive trajectory, where the model can ask clarifying questions, call tools, update state, and make intermediate decisions whose errors propagate to the final outcome. We study whether three common families of single-turn UQ methods transfer to this setting. Across five LLMs and four multi-turn tool-use datasets from BFCL-v4 and $τ^2$-bench, we evaluate white-box scorers based on action-token probabilities, black-box consistency scorers based on resampled trajectories, and reflexive scorers based on model self-assessment of the trajectory. We find that transfer is often useful but uneven. Token-probability scores are highly sensitive to the choice of aggregator used across turns, reflexive scores provide the strongest low-cost baseline in most evaluated settings, and black-box self-consistency is often the strongest UQ family, with trajectory-equivalence and action-set consistency typically ranking highest among its variants. These results suggest that UQ methods developed for single generations should be revalidated at the trajectory level, with careful attention to the consistency measurement, aggregator choice, and computational budget.

Machine learning models should be robust, in the sense of remaining predictively consistent under permissible variations. A model's predictions should ideally remain unchanged when it is replaced by a functionally equivalent one, or when its inputs are subject to minor, admissible perturbations. If such changes alter a prediction significantly, then the prediction is "ambiguous" with respect to the model. Models should abstain from making such ambiguous predictions and/or should flag them for human inspection, especially in high-stakes decision-making scenarios. However, in practice, such ambiguity is not easy to identify once a model is deployed. Here, the Robust Ambiguity Detection (RAD) framework is advanced for quantifying predictive ambiguity using two complementary metrics: Model-Space Consistency and Feature-Space Consistency. These two scores, the RAD Score-Pair, visualised through the RAD Plot, provide an interpretable characterisation of the sources of ambiguity and the actions a user may consider in response. RAD is evaluated on synthetic datasets with systematically controlled overlap, as well as several real-world datasets where the level of ambiguity cannot be directly inspected. Finally, we demonstrate a downstream application of RAD where samples are ranked by their RAD Pareto-Rank and the most ambiguous are abstained from prediction, achieving performance comparable to existing rejection-based approaches.

Reliable clinical deployment of machine learning requires models that know when they are likely to fail, particularly for subgroups underrepresented in training data. A common case is pediatric care, where models trained on adult cohorts can silently under-perform on children with no indication that something has gone wrong. As retraining with labeled pediatric data is often infeasible, detecting such failures at inference time is a critical clinical need. Building on the VIDS (Variational Inference under Distribution Shifts) framework, we introduce VIDS-Seg, which applies amortized variational inference over a lightweight prediction head to make this adaptive, OOD-aware prior tractable for dense image segmentation. We evaluate VIDS-Seg on left ventricular segmentation in echocardiography, a setting where pediatric anatomy differs systematically from the adult population most segmentation models are trained on, training on an adult cohort (EchoNet-Dynamic) and evaluating zero-shot on a pediatric cohort (EchoNet-Pediatric). Across all age strata, VIDS-Seg matches competitive baselines in segmentation accuracy while producing substantially higher spatial correspondence between predicted uncertainty and segmentation error, an advantage that persists even after applying temperature scaling to all baselines. Downstream, it yields more accurate and stable ejection fraction estimates and more reliable detection of cardiac malfunction in the infant subgroup. Our results indicate that OOD-aware uncertainty quantification can serve as a practical safety layer for deployed segmentation models, enabling detection of silent failures in underrepresented subgroups without retraining or additional labeled data.

Reliable uncertainty representation is essential for deploying autonomous systems that interact with their environment, as robots must reason about how uncertainty arising from both stochasticity and model mismatch is impacted by contacts with obstacles (e.g., when navigating through a cluttered environment or inserting a part into an assembly). We propose Calibrated Particle-sets for Trans-dimensional Uncertainty Representation (CaPTURe), a geometry-aware, conformal prediction-based algorithm that generates probabilistically valid prediction regions of the unknown future system configuration using particle-based models of arbitrary fidelity. While calibrated uncertainty predictions are essential for safe and efficient planning, analytical or learned motion models are often inaccurate - due to limited data, simplifying assumptions, unmodeled effects, etc. - which can lead to unsafe executions or task failure. Additionally, when a robot contacts an obstacle, the distribution of its future configurations can become multimodal or disjoint, or lie along manifolds of lower intrinsic dimension than the space of possible robot configurations. Our method uses a calibration dataset of system transitions to locally calibrate motion uncertainty estimates, constructing regions guaranteed to contain the future robot configuration at a user-set probability. Our calibration procedure captures how motion uncertainty varies between contact-rich and contactless motions, leading to sufficient coverage in both cases. We evaluate our method on two simulated planning tasks: controlling a marble around a labyrinth and performing tight-tolerance peg-in-hole insertion with a manipulator. Compared to relevant baselines, CaPTURe achieves the user-specified coverage requirement both in and out of contact and achieves up to a 30% absolute improvement in task success rate over the best baseline.

Recent advances in Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) offer an opportunity to obtain ecological spatial point-process data at unprecedented scale. However, realizing this opportunity necessitates the development of accurate and scalable localization methods. In real-world outdoor soundscapes, however, the assumptions underlying classical localization methods such as hyperbolic and score-based localization are routinely violated by multipath dominance, near-field effects, and complex propagation. Under these conditions, classical localization methods become brittle, with extreme errors possible even in small detection arrays. Rather than statistically replacing the underlying physics, we propose a method to refine it and increase robustness outside of ideal operating conditions: a learned model operating on physics-informed acoustic features corrects a fast hyperbolic solver where it produces implausible solutions, substantially reducing catastrophic worst-case errors while matching its median accuracy on field data. We further provide calibrated, geometry-aware uncertainty estimates suitable for propagation into downstream spatial models. Evaluating on distributed microphone arrays in real and simulated outdoor environments, we demonstrate that the proposed method yields robust, uncertainty-aware localization, providing a step toward scalable automated wildlife monitoring in complex acoustic environments.

Quantitative T2* maps have strong potential for biomarker discovery but are limited by long scan times, rendering them impractical in clinical settings. Significant acceleration can be achieved through undersampling in k-space combined with learning-based reconstruction. However, reconstruction artifacts and noise can propagate into downstream T2* fitting, degrading its accuracy. We introduce CUPA-T2*, a framework that explicitly propagates voxel-wise inter-echo uncertainty from stochastic Monte Carlo dropout reconstructions to downstream T2* fitting via covariance-aware sampling. T2* fitting is performed with a heteroscedastic MLP and a correlation-based regularizer that encourages alignment between predicted variance and reconstruction uncertainty. Experiments on accelerated brain MRI data show tissue-dependent behavior: CUPA-T2* achieves competitive overall T2* fitting performance and improves white-matter performance at higher accelerations. Compared with a heteroscedastic baseline, the proposed framework substantially increases alignment between reconstruction uncertainty and predicted T2* variance, while also revealing a trade-off with calibration (ECE) and selective prediction performance (AURC). CUPA-T2* enables reconstruction uncertainty-aware T2* fitting and delivers voxel-wise uncertainty maps to support the interpretation of quantitative T2* estimates.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) provide an interpretable framework by grounding predictions in human-understandable concepts, enabling semantic inspection and test-time intervention. Recent variants have improved CBMs through richer concept representations, uncertainty estimation, and dependency modeling. However, robust reasoning under unreliable concept states remains underexplored. Without such reasoning, misleading semantic evidence can propagate through the bottleneck, compromising both explanations and downstream predictions. To address this issue, we propose ReCBM, an uncertainty-gated relational reasoning framework for CBMs. ReCBM introduces semantically defined concept relations into the bottleneck and uses uncertainty to guide their refinement. By modeling co-occurrence, implication, and exclusion, ReCBM specifies how evidence is exchanged across concepts, while uncertainty modulates the contribution of each concept during this process. Experiments across diverse datasets showed that ReCBM improved concept and task recovery under missing and flipped concepts, supported uncertainty-aware intervention, and extracted compact task-relevant concept subsets without degrading downstream performance.

Multimodal fusion architectures typically assume all modalities are available at inference, yet sensor failures, acquisition variability, and cost constraints routinely produce incomplete observations. Existing work treats modality absence as a prediction-accuracy problem, leaving a more basic question unanswered: whether a model's confidence estimates remain calibrated when an entire input stream is removed. We argue that missing-modality robustness and calibrated uncertainty are a single coupled property, and introduce Modality-Conditioned Conformal Fusion (MCCF), an architecture that addresses both at once. MCCF combines a multimodal bottleneck fusion backbone trained with modality dropout, per-modality evidential heads producing modality-decomposed Dirichlet distributions, and a Dempster-Shafer combination rule that fuses the per-modality evidence into a joint predictive distribution; an absent modality contributes vacuous evidence that is structurally ignored, so the fused uncertainty automatically reflects the reduced information without test-time imputation. A Mondrian conformal calibration module keyed on the modality-presence mask then provides finite-sample group-conditional coverage for every non-empty modality subset. MCCF is, to our knowledge, the first method with formal coverage guarantees under arbitrary modality availability through architectural integration rather than post-hoc recalibration, and the evidential decomposition yields per-modality vacuity scores that localise uncertainty to the absent modality responsible. Across a synthetic problem and three real multimodal benchmarks, MCCF holds its target coverage on every modality-presence subset, substantially narrows the coverage gap between full and partial modalities relative to a marginal split-conformal baseline, and imposes no measurable accuracy cost relative to temperature-scaled and evidential baselines.

We adapt two classical statistical estimators for quantifying uncertainty to modern deep learning, in order to provide clearer insights into uncertainty attributable to two sources : aleatoric uncertainty, or locally scarce data. Our approach leverages recent advances in approximate Fisher Information Matrices, to enable scaling to actual architectures. Experimental results demonstrate how each test points is differentially impacted by both sources, highlighting the practical utility of our estimators in improving the robustness of real-world applications.

Probabilistic long-term time-series forecasting commonly relies on trained models. Training-free conformal methods typically construct intervals around a pre-existing point forecaster and do not natively represent a complete predictive distribution; sequential variants additionally suffer from increasingly delayed feedback at long horizons. We propose KReF, a training-free retrieval framework that treats retrieved historical futures as a querylocal empirical predictive distribution. After robust preprocessing, KReF embeds each lookback using handcrafted statistics or frozen random Fourier features and retrieves similar historical lookback-future pairs. Their similarity weights directly define predictive masses, quantiles, CRPS, and a weighted-mean point forecast. KReF further uses the observed query lookback to construct a probability-integral-transform map and applies validation-selected expansion and shrinkage rates to adapt interval boundaries. Across six LTSF benchmarks and four horizons, KReF obtains the lowest CRPS in all 12 dataset-embedding settings and the lowest IS90 in 9 settings. Without gradient-based fitting, its point forecasts also match or surpass trained baselines on two of six datasets. An archive-oracle analysis further reveals substantial headroom under finer horizon- and channel-wise routing. These results establish retrieval as a useful and underexplored inductive bias for LTSF.

Predicting failures before they occur remains a major challenge in predictive maintenance, particularly when failures are rare, when equipment of the same family differ in sensor configurations, and when the goal is anticipation rather than diagnosis of an already observed fault. This paper proposes a common-to-target probabilistic model that learns shared failure-related patterns across a family of heterogeneous equipment and adapts parsimoniously to target equipment. The model explicitly accounts for sensor heterogeneity, operating context, and degradation dynamics to produce calibrated failureprobability estimates suitable for maintenance planning. Its performance is evaluated on a synthetic refrigerator dataset comprising 27 simulated refrigerators with varying sensor configurations, operating conditions, and failure types, providing a controlle

Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential. This often requires disentangling epistemic uncertainty from aleatoric uncertainty, yet these uncertainty types are not defined consistently across the literature, making it difficult to assess whether a method produces accurate uncertainty estimates. Evaluation is further complicated by the fact that ground-truth epistemic uncertainty is typically unavailable. Existing benchmarks therefore mostly rely on proxy tasks such as out-of-distribution detection, which do not provide complete ground-truth uncertainty targets and offer limited insight into the structure and quality of uncertainty estimates. We propose a unified definition of uncertainty as pointwise posterior risk, the expected loss of a predictor under the distribution of plausible ground-truth functions given the data. This view combines Bayesian uncertainty over functions with estimator-dependent deviations from the posterior mean, capturing effects such as misspecification and optimization error. This formulation constitutes the foundation of a theory-backed benchmark that enables direct computation of oracle epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty using semi-synthetic datasets with real covariates and known generative processes. By avoiding proxy evaluations, the benchmark enables fine-grained analysis of uncertainty estimates. Empirically, we find that accurate prediction does not guarantee reliable uncertainty disentanglement. The benchmark reveals practically useful differences between methods, identifying approaches with meaningful alignment to oracle uncertainty targets while exposing sensitivity to datasets and modeling choices.

A geometry-conditioned, neuro-symbolic closed-loop architecture is proposed for laser powder bed fusion, in which a standards-aligned ontology operates inside the control loop and couples symbolic reasoning with statistical learning to set the targets of a constraint-aware predictive controller. The ontology links the process objectives and constraints to the signals a controller can observe, and a description-logic reasoner converts them into the references and bounds enforced on each scan. The demonstrated case is overhang dross, a quality limit on the melt pool depth, which governs quality yet cannot be measured during the build, is mapped through a geometry- and power-dependent depth-to-width ratio onto a bound on the observable width, with the ratio and its calibrated uncertainty supplied by a Gaussian process. The reasoner classifies each upcoming feature and selects the active constraints-adding a lack-of-fusion floor at overhangs, a monotone guard beyond the calibrated range, and an energy-density cap where a process window is declared while running only on changes of geometric context and otherwise leaving a single small quadratic program on the per-scan path. In an Eagar-Tsai surrogate calibrated to the NIST AM-Bench benchmark for IN625, the architecture eliminates the dross produced by a geometry-blind controller, holds dross at zero with only a small residual lack-of-fusion under dual scoring, degrades gracefully under deliberate plant mismatch, and retargets to new alloys and constraints by editing ontology data rather than code. The results establish architectural feasibility, experimental calibration of the ratio is the principal next step.

This paper proposes the Bayesian Expected Uncertainty Reduction (B-EUR) model, which formalizes the value of trying a candidate design action as its expected reduction of epistemic uncertainty about action--outcome relations. The model addresses one part of the Uncertainty Driven Action (UDA) model's open question concerning how changes in uncertainty perception determine action selection. We examine two environmental properties: generalizability, or how far knowledge from one trial extends to neighboring candidates, and outcome discriminability, or how clearly differences among outcomes can be distinguished. We tested the model through simulations and human experiments using a graph-shape guessing task that isolates learning about action--outcome relations under a limited trial budget. Epistemic value followed an inverted-U-shaped relationship with generalizability and increased with outcome discriminability in the simulations. In the human experiments, the subjective value of trying and enjoyment followed inverted-U-shaped relationships with generalizability, while choice behavior reflected both properties. The B-EUR model provides a computational account of candidate-action evaluation within uncertainty-driven design activity and offers implications for constructing prototype sets, framing design problems, and organizing feedback to support informative exploration.

Probabilistic prediction heads in neural networks typically output either a Gaussian mixture or a single conformal region. Neither separates the distinct sources of uncertainty often present in real prediction tasks: a discrete choice among modes, bounded systematic drift within the chosen mode, and irreducible stochastic noise. We introduce the Hybrid Probabilistic Zonotope (HProbZ), an output head that represents these three sources as binary, bounded, and stochastic generators of a zonotope, and admits a closed-form likelihood by convolution. Sharing the bounded generator across prediction steps couples future predictions algebraically, so observing one step refines the predictive distribution at every remaining step in a single forward pass. We establish that the three generators are identifiable from the likelihood up to permutation, and that an HProbZ density is representationally distinct from any finite Gaussian mixture. The same shared structure provides analytic per-mode risk and distribution-free multi-modal conformal sets at inference time. Empirical analysis on representative prediction benchmarks supports the effectiveness of the design relative to same-encoder mixture baselines, while offering structural properties that mixture or convex-conformal predictors do not jointly provide.

Continuum robots often operate in uncertain environments, where accurate state estimation is essential for safe interactions. Estimate uncertainty is inherently spatially non-uniform: confidence varies depending on where measurements are available. Global estimation accuracy is not always the top priority, but rather achieving sufficient confidence at task-relevant locations along the robot. This extended abstract introduces mechanically reconfigurable sensing enabling uncertainty-shaping in state estimation for continuum robots. We present a concept hardware design demonstrating the feasibility of longitudinal translation of a sensor within a continuum robot. We demonstrate that state estimation confidence can be reconfigured by varying the sensor location, and show a reduction of full-body shape estimation errors when sliding the sensor back and forth over time, compared to a single fixed tip sensor.

Small open-weight language models increasingly run in private, offline, and cost-sensitive settings, where the key deployment question is not only what a model answers but when it should defer to a human. We study whether verbalized confidence can support risk-controlled deferral, evaluating eleven instruction-tuned models from three families, 0.5B to 14B parameters, on ARC-Challenge and TruthfulQA with 25,168 local predictions. Three theoretical results delimit what calibration can provide: strictly monotone calibration preserves the risk-coverage frontier and error-detection AUROC; temperature scaling cannot calibrate models whose confidence stays above one half while accuracy falls below it; and a Clopper-Pearson procedure converts a 200-question calibration set into a finite-sample risk certificate under an i.i.d. deployment assumption. Empirically, eight of 22 model-task pairs hit the temperature-scaling infeasibility floor within one percentage point of the predicted bound. Platt scaling reduces ECE to as low as 0.02, yet certified autonomy at a 20% risk budget is granted to only three model-task pairs and to none at 10%. We also identify and repair an answer-ordering artifact in the multiple-choice form of TruthfulQA. Calibration gives confidence semantics; certified deferral determines when small models are safe to use.

Bayesian causal discovery seeks to determine the posterior distribution of causal theories, which are interpreted as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that explain the observed data. The resulting posterior allows systematic reasoning regarding epistemic uncertainty within these theories. Nonetheless, finding such graphs is difficult due to identifiability problems and limited observational data. Furthermore, precisely approximating posterior over graphs is challenging given vast range of potential DAGs. Recent Bayesian approaches have addressed some of these challenges, yet they remain limited as they fail to encode dependencies between edges, and lack principled ways to incorporate domain knowledge as inductive biases during the search process. To overcome these limitations, we propose SVI-DAG, a structured variational inference approach to Bayesian causal discovery using observational data and prior beliefs that uses normalizing flows to model dependencies between edges, supporting expressive and multimodal posterior learning over DAGs. To mitigate mode seeking behaviour in evidence lower bound optimization and promote mode coverage, we use stein variational gradient descent to update the node potentials using a kernel in acyclicity space. We evaluate SVI-DAG against 5 state-of-the-art Bayesian DAG learning methods and demonstrate superior performance in uncertainty quantification while remaining competitive in terms of structural accuracy.

The daily allocation of the finite 24-hour time budget is strongly associated with physical, mental, and cognitive health. While predictive models can estimate the relationship between time-use compositions and health outcomes such as body mass index, life satisfaction, and cognition, most optimization approaches focus only on maximizing expected benefit and do not consider the uncertainty inherent in data-driven prediction. Ignoring uncertainty in health-related decisions can lead to unrealistic time-use recommendations. To address this gap, we introduce an uncertainty quantification Quality Diversity (QD) framework for a more reliable time-use recommendation. Objective functions are derived using compositional data analysis using a large child cohort dataset n > 1000, to capture the relationship between daily activity compositions and multiple health indicators. We develop a new approach that incorporates predictive uncertainty into QD processes and produces more reliable recommendations that balance the expected health benefits with the confidence of the model. We explore the solution space through variable-based and objective-based behavioral representations, revealing diverse high-quality time-use composition and explicit relationships between health outcomes under uncertainty. By embedding uncertainty directly into optimization, our framework shifts the time-use recommendations toward regions of lower uncertainty while preserving high-quality structures for more reliable decision-making in behavioral health.

Data-driven decision pipelines combining predictive machine learning models with downstream optimization software are increasingly used to make high-stakes operational decisions. Certifying the safety, fairness, and reliability of these decisions is essential, yet traditional scenario generation methods rely on repeated random testing, which becomes computationally prohibitive when failure events are rare and offers little insight into why failures occur. We present a framework for local violation certification designed specifically for linear decision pipelines under input uncertainty. We mathematically demonstrate that standard sampling methods fail efficiently for rare violations, motivating a direct structural approach. By analyzing the fixed decision boundary of a deployed pipeline, we show that the local risk of failure can be calculated directly in closed form using a single optimization solve. Furthermore, we introduce an exact sampling procedure and closed-form risk statistics that provide feature-level attributions (identifying which input characteristics contribute most to potential non-compliance) without requiring repetitive random trials or complex sampling algorithms. We demonstrate our approach on an economic power dispatch system subject to emissions regulations, delivering precise, auditable risk assessments at a fraction of the traditional computational cost.

Combining Bayesian learning and quantitative verification is a powerful toolset for analysing key quantitative properties of software systems, like reliability and response time. However, the accuracy and robustness of verification results strongly depend on the prior knowledge (PK) underlying Bayesian inference. This knowledge reflects original beliefs about the probability of events and typically depends on domain expertise. Using inaccurate or uninformative PK can negatively affect quantitative analysis, yielding incorrect verification results. Our EPIK approach tackles this important challenge by eliciting and embedding PK in quantitative verification equipped with Bayesian estimators. Unlike existing approaches that require PK on formal model transition parameters, EPIK leverages system-level properties that are directly observable and are linked to real-world semantics. EPIK formulates a twofold optimisation problem to derive the distributions of unknown transition parameters and then embeds these distributions to verify new or difficult-to-measure (elusive) properties. The detailed experimental evaluation using multiple variants of real-world case studies and diverse EPIK instantiations shows its effectiveness, flexibility and generality.

Accurate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is critical for reliable deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs), yet traditional probability-based metrics often fail to capture the model's true epistemic state. While recent mechanistic approaches leverage hidden state dynamics, they typically aggregate residual stream updates, conflating the distinct roles of parametric memory (Feed-Forward Networks) and contextual processing (Attention). We argue that this aggregation obscures fine-grained mechanistic conflicts, such as memory-context misalignment, that are fundamental indicators of uncertainty. To address this, we introduce \textbf{D}ecoupled \textbf{U}pdate \textbf{D}ynamics \textbf{(DUD)}, a framework that explicitly decouples FFN and Attention contributions via noise-induced causal interventions. By quantifying the independent restoration capabilities of each module, we construct a dual-stream dynamic profile that captures the model's internal fragility. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DUD significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both uncertainty estimation and calibration, while exhibiting superior cross-dataset generalization, validating decoupled dynamics as a robust proxy for model faithfulness.

Non-intrusive reduced-order models (NIROMs) have become a standard tool for approximating parametric partial differential equations from computer design of experiments while significantly reducing computational costs. However, assessing the reliability of their predictions remains a major challenge, particularly in extrapolation regimes or under limited training data. In this work, we introduce a framework for quantifying model-form uncertainty in NIROMs by combining a perturbative stochastic representation of reduced bases with distribution-free conformal-type methods. Starting from a deterministic reduced basis constructed from snapshot matrices, we model uncertainty through random perturbations defined on the Stiefel manifold, directed along the discarded modes, yielding stochastic reduced-order approximations whose induced variance reflects the basis-truncation error. A transport approximation gives a closed-form posterior variance that separates basis-induced from regression-induced uncertainty, without re-training the underlying Gaussian processes. We include this posterior variance within a conformal risk control calibration framework, that provides prediction sets with coordinate miscoverage guarantees. The calibration factor produced by this framework is itself an interpretable, scalar diagnostic of the quality of the uncertainty estimate. The methodology is evaluated on parametric PDE benchmarks and an industrial tire-manufacturing calendering process. Numerical experiments demonstrate reliable, locally informative uncertainty quantification that goes beyond the Gaussian predictive variance.

Asked to animate the same modern artwork under different random seeds, a text to video model returns visibly different films, one reading per seed. Because modern art is ambiguous by intent, this disagreement is signal, not noise. Yet prevailing uncertainty quantification (UQ) collapses a set of generations to a dispersion scalar that says how much the seeds differ but not how: it cannot tell a compact interpretation from a dominant reading plus an outlier, two competing modes, or diffuse instability, nor whether the set still contains a rendering faithful to the original. We present the first study of the structure of generative uncertainty for modern art animation, and a reusable protocol for identifying source blind multiseed uncertainty: a suite of seven source blind and six reference aware estimators; a distributional profile (robust spread, outlier influence, explicit topology, multimodality, anisotropy, leave one seed influence, reference coverage); a distribution model ablation (vMF, Kent, ACG, Student t, kernel, mixture); eight identification questions; and an artwork level statistical protocol. We build the first corpus: 250 modern artwork captions rendered by Wan2.1 14B under four seeds (1000 videos) across 4 encoders, artworks withheld from generation. As a diagnostic the protocol succeeds: it classifies seed set topology at balanced accuracy 0.98 (chance 0.25), isolates the outlier configuration at AUROC 1.00 where a scalar reaches only 0.35, and splits high uncertainty artworks into reference covering (n=97) and reference missing (n=56) diversity, reliably from three seeds and across encoders.

Effective model-based reinforcement learning in stochastic environments requires planning that accounts for predictive uncertainty. Propagating full state distributions analytically offers a principled way to do this, but has traditionally required restrictive policy or reward structures to remain tractable. Consequently, modern deep reinforcement learning has largely retreated to either stochastic sampling, which introduces significant target variance, or deterministic point estimates that ignore predictive covariance entirely. We investigate whether distribution-aware planning is possible without these constraints. Using a quadratic action-value parameterization, we first reduce the Bellman backup to an expectation over the state-value function alone; the key idea is then a compatibility principle between the predictive transition distribution and the value function class, under which this expectation is analytic in the distribution's moments. We instantiate this principle with a Gaussian transition model paired with a radial-basis value function, yielding a closed-form backup that propagates both predictive mean and covariance. Empirically, our approach reduces target variance and yields well-calibrated predictive uncertainty under stochastic observations in continuous control, providing a principled framework for planning with learned distribution models.

In noisy social dilemmas, intended actions are stochastically corrupted before execution, so an observed defection may reflect hostile intent or action error. Standard Markov Decision Process (MDP) formulations treat executed actions as states, structurally precluding this distinction and causing systematic over-retaliation. We introduce a Partially Observable MDP (POMDP) formulation encoding opponent intentions as latent states and executed actions as noisy observations, solved within the active inference (AIF) framework with a cost function that decomposes into epistemic and pragmatic components that jointly address inferring current intent and learning how intent evolves. In the Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma with symmetric noise, we derive a critical noise threshold governing cooperation collapse, connecting it to a fixed-point condition on learned priors. Experiments reveal that the value of intention inference is context-dependent: the POMDP provides consistent advantages against conditionally cooperative opponents, but mutual intention inference under sufficient noise produces correlated belief-driven collapse. The advantage is specific to games where intent attribution is decision-relevant.

Predictive processing theories portray the brain as a hierarchical prediction engine that minimizes prediction error, yet they lack operational definitions for the structure of a "prediction," the standardized response to a prediction error, and the mechanism that maintains consistency across successive updates. Bayesian cognitive science attempts to subsume all uncertainty under probabilistic belief updating, but it presupposes a closed hypothesis space and provides no generative account of how the objects over which probabilities are distributed become discrete, identifiable referents in the first place. This paper introduces Predictive Set Theory (PST), a formal generative framework that reconstructs cognitive architecture from first principles. PST anchors cognition in a minimal set of operations---a sensor formalized as an identity function, set-theoretic state refresh, and three fundamental forms of reference chains (reference, counter-reference, and semi-reference)---and rigorously derives core cognitive functions including state sequences, demand, comparison, efficiency, and finite-horizon probabilistic planning. Rather than modeling neural mechanisms, PST constitutes a design specification for any system that must maintain internal consistency while acting under incomplete information and irreversible risk. The framework offers novel resolutions to classical problems such as Russell's paradox, the cognitive status of Gödelian incompleteness, the grounding of negative feedback, and the comprehension of film editing. The primary purpose of this paper is to establish, through the public academic record, the originality and completeness of the Predictive Set Theory framework.

When algorithms make or influence consequential decisions---about loan eligibility, hiring, or healthcare---EU law grants affected individuals a Right to Explanation. Yet whether (and how) Explainable AI (XAI) can satisfy this right in practice remains poorly understood, with direct implications for individuals' ability to contest automated decisions that affect their lives. This paper presents a systematic literature review of XAI in the context of the EU Right to Explanation, with particular focus on Art. 15(1)(h) GDPR, Art. 86 AI Act (AIA), and related instruments. We consider papers published from 2024 onwards, as the final version of the AIA was published in July 2024---with Art. 86 being added late. From 2643 initial records identified by a deliberately broad search, we review 57 full texts, of which only 19 papers demonstrate substantive integration of both legal and technical perspectives, showing gaps in the interdisciplinary synthesis of the current regulatory framework. We document three problematic patterns across the corpus: Most misidentify the GDPR legal basis; few engage with the CJEU's Dun & Bradstreet judgment (likely due to publication timing); and the distinction between explanation form (governed by addressee) and content (governed by legal purpose) is often conflated. We conceptualize this as the Addressee/Purpose Framework, propose a four-phase blueprint for operationalization, and identify six concrete open research questions. Without further progress, the Right to Explanation risks remaining a formal obligation without a technically realizable path to compliance.

We investigate Optimization under Input Uncertainty (OIU), in which the input to the objective function, rather than the objective function itself, is subject to uncertainty. OIU appears in manufacturing processes with production tolerance, control of physical systems with actuation noise, Mixture of Experts, and Reinforcement Learning (RL). Most of the existing approaches solve OIU by using the value of the objective function but discard the information of the realized input, even though the realized input is observable in various applications. The question here is whether the discarded information of the realized input is useful to accelerate the optimization process. We affirmatively answer this question for Evolutionary Strategy (ES) by theoretically showing that the information of the realized input can reduce the variance of the gradient estimator via Rao-Blackwellization. Using the Rao-Blackwellized gradient estimator, we propose Phenotype-Accelerated Evolutionary Strategy (PAES), which is a refinement of ES for OIU. Numerical experiments show that PAES converges faster than the usual ES from simple continuous optimization problems to RL benchmarks.