Longitudinal Data

Tracking depression from multi-session counseling dialogues requires estimating both current symptom severity and how it changes across sessions. Yet progress on this task is constrained by the scarcity of longitudinal counseling data with standardized session-level depression labels. Existing resources typically provide either multi-session conversations without depression labels or labeled interviews in a single session. Building such a benchmark poses three challenges: maintaining longitudinal consistency and diversity, grounding symptom progression in empirical patterns, and expressing controlled depression states naturally without exposing target labels. To address these challenges, we introduce LongCounsel-8, a benchmark suite of three independently generated datasets totaling 7,749 five-session counseling trajectories, grounded in real-world client profiles, depression trajectories, symptom compositions, and counseling patterns. We combine profile-grounded simulation, empirically informed state construction, and indirect behavioral realization to address these challenges. Across the benchmark, simulated self-reports closely recover the controlled states, supporting label fidelity. Experiments on existing depression tracking methods reveal three key findings: (1) lower single-session score error does not guarantee accurate identification of trend, i.e., improvement or worsening; (2) existing methods are consistently less reliable on worsening trajectories; and (3) additional session history may reduce the accuracy of trend prediction. Together, these findings establish LongCounsel-8 as a foundation for advancing depression assessment from static, single-session prediction toward reliable longitudinal tracking of mental-health change.

Large language models (LLMs) have become an essential tool for assisting developers, yet we still lack knowledge on ways to effectively support their interactions during development activities. That is, the quality of interactions with a chat-based LLM still strongly depends on how developers phrase prompts and which information they include. Our goal is to evaluate whether interventions into these interactions with LLMs have an effect on software developers---be it harmful or beneficial. To this end, we conducted a four-month longitudinal study with third-semester computer science students working on a full-stack Web development project using chat-based LLMs under three conditions: (1) a \emph{context}-aware group received intent-based conversation augmentation, (2) a \emph{proactive} group received follow-up suggestions and tailored advice, and (3) a \emph{control} group without intervention. Our augmentations are minimal: (i) to reduce confounding factors and (ii) to isolate treatment effects. Analyzing interaction logs and user surveys revealed no major differences in interaction patterns, indicating no detectable harmful effects in the measured outcomes when intervening in interactions. Moreover, we observed trends of increased satisfaction with the \emph{proactive} treatment. The results indicate that even with minimal interventions, dynamic guidance mechanisms for developer-LLM interactions show observable effects, such that more severe augmentations may have the potential to substantially improve developer satisfaction.

Longitudinal cohort studies produce repeated data that enable the assessment of time-varying association patterns between exposures and health outcomes. Classical linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) can accommodate a large variety of association patterns while accounting for the irregularly spaced, partially observed measurement. But they require the analyst to pre-specify the functional form linking the exposure history to the outcome. We propose the Neural ODE-LMM, which embeds a Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) within the linear mixed-effects framework: a learned vector field encodes covariate trajectories into a continuous-time latent state that drives both the fixed- and random-effect design, while preserving the standard LMM observation model. This retains classical likelihood-based inference while learning complex, potentially cumulative, covariate effects flexibly. All parameters are estimated by maximising a penalised marginal likelihood. To quantify covariate effects, we introduce contrasts of counterfactual predictions that compare the expected outcome under alternative covariate trajectories with variance estimated via the delta method. In simulations, the model recovers both instantaneous and cumulative-burden effects without prior specification of the functional form. Applied to the Trois-Cités (3C) cohort, a population-based study of 7{,}324 participants, the method reveals trajectory-dependent associations of BMI and fasting glucose with cognitive decline.

The experience sampling method (ESM) is a longitudinal research design where participants report their thoughts, emotional states and behaviours multiple times a day. Our work is motivated by such data collected by the GrowIt! app, which was released to investigate daily emotions among adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic. Current procedures to analyse ESM data face various challenges. While standard statistical techniques may not scale well to a high-dimensional setting, machine learning procedures can give biased results due to selection bias introduced by missingness. In our motivating dataset, adolescents dropped out due to previous strong feelings of negative emotions. Hence, the implied missing data are of the missing-at-random type that standard machine learning procedures cannot accommodate. We develop a novel neural network architecture that generalises mixed effects models to deep learning to overcome these challenges. It allows semi-parametric and flexible modelling of data's mean and correlation structure through fixed and random effects. For estimation, we use an adaptation of variational auto-encoders and a Bayesian data augmentation algorithm. Through this approach, the model can accommodate longitudinal outcomes following generic distributions, scale well to high-dimensional settings and provide valid inference when data are missing-at-random. We applied the Deep Generalised Mixed Model to the GrowIt! study and various simulations. The results show potential for the Deep Generalised Mixed Model, yet suboptimal performance due to model instability.

Language models have taken on the role of a very new type of technology, by virtue of their "human-ness" and rapid integration into users' daily lives. This combination of features can introduce longitudinal risks---cognitive, developmental and socio-affective changes in humans---that might not surface during a short-term interaction, but can have lasting long-term effects on users. This forms the basis of a critical new mission for NLP: to pivot from static, short-term evaluations of text generations to long-term measurements of behavioral changes, towards a diachronic understanding of human-model interactions. In this work, we draw from measurements used in social science fields that are crucial to understand emergent phenomena in longitudinal data. We discuss how computational methods in the field of NLP need to be combined with such measurements, not only to understand long-term safety risks of human-model interactions, but to help steer model development towards positive rather than negative outcomes for users. This ability to model human behavioral shifts as a function of model interactions can facilitate online rather than post-hoc detection of problematic behaviors, and should be leveraged in alignment frameworks to mitigate long-term risks in users.

Group conversations are fundamental to human collaboration, yet standard large language models (LLMs) still struggle with the complexities of multi-party interaction. This challenge persists in part because existing group conversation datasets are often limited to short-term lab settings with contrived tasks, failing to capture the long-term social dynamics of real-world teams. To bridge this gap, we introduce TIDES, a high-resolution longitudinal dataset tracking 12 university project teams over a full semester. Comprising 75,971 utterances in both English and Korean from in-person meetings, TIDES provides a naturalistic record of teams working on self-managed projects. Our socio-structural annotations-covering interaction types, emergent roles, and development stages-allow for modeling of team evolution over months. Experiments show that fine-tuning on TIDES improves next-speaker prediction by 13.8 percentage points over a bigram baseline (64.53%) and yields performance comparable to strong proprietary zero-shot models. The model also comes within 2.1 percentage points of the published state of the art on the AMI Meeting Corpus while using approximately 42% less training data. However, human evaluations suggest that better next-speaker prediction does not necessarily yield more natural or coherent utterances, as fine-tuned models were generally less preferred than vanilla models. This potential mismatch motivates further study of how structural modeling can support natural multi-party generation.

Emotional dialogue research includes two influential strategy traditions. Empathetic dialogue prioritizes understanding a speaker's emotional experience. Emotional support conversation selects and sequences support for the seeker's current needs. Sustained use introduces a further goal. Effective support should sustain users' capacities for emotion regulation, coping, self-endorsed decisions, and social connection across the interaction lifecycle. We propose capability-sustaining emotional dialogue (CSED) as a longitudinal research paradigm that aligns supportive strategy with this goal and organizes data, models, system design, evaluation, and governance around repeated use, non-use, transition, and termination. A targeted literature-and-corpus audit motivates this position. In a PRISMA-ScR-guided sample, 95% of 60 system-building papers pursue relief-oriented goals. None evaluates capability or longitudinal outcomes, and only 1 considers dependency, autonomy, or termination risk. In 300 ESConv supporter turns, capability-relevant functions appear in 43.0%, while generic suggestions account for 22.0%, compared with 4.0% reappraisal, 6.7% self-efficacy support, and 0.3% boundary behavior. We release a protocol for extending the audit to model behavior. An illustrative process model connects latent user capability to six design commitments, four evaluation timescales, and lifecycle constraints. The resulting agenda makes CSED testable across data, policy design, training, evaluation, and governance.

Longitudinal studies often collect data at sparse, irregular, and unequally spaced time points. Such heterogeneity is often driven by subject-specific covariates, yet existing methods have been restricted to a scalar endpoint value, completely neglecting the underlying response trajectories. We propose a novel Longitudinal Random Forest (LRF) framework that leverages tree-based ensemble machine learning with adaptive node-wise longitudinal trajectory estimation. The LRF framework makes five methodological contributions. it captures each subject's individual response trajectory while simultaneously accommodating within-node correlation, between-node heterogeneity, and nonlinear and interactive covariate effects. It introduces a novel trajectory-based splitting criterion that maximizes trajectory separation while incorporating a size-weighted penalty; it provides two variants, Principal Analysis by Conditional Expectation (LRF-PACE) and adaptive linear mixed-effects models (LRF-adaptiveLMM), which employ nonparametric and semiparametric node-wise smoothers, respectively, while learning covariate effects in a data-driven manner. It provides a comprehensive interpretation of covariates using both the classical trajectory-based permutation variable importance measure (PVIM) and a newly proposed finite-way interaction frequency count, and it not only predicts entire trajectories for new subjects but also forecasts future trajectories for existing subjects. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that LRF achieves superior performance over several competing methods, even under severe sparsity. The practical significance of the LRF framework lies in its ability to address five important clinical questions.

As conversational AI systems are designed for repeated use, a central question is how a series of interactions becomes a relationship. We present a longitudinal multimodal study of a memory-augmented conversational agent (24 participants x 10 sessions), in which participants rated five relational constructs -- familiarity, self-disclosure, perceived memory, conversational quality, and enjoyment -- after each session. Two complementary dynamics emerge. First, conversational quality strongly shapes how enjoyable a session feels in the moment but does not carry forward across sessions, whereas perceived memory is relationally conditioned -- predicted by prior relational state rather than reflecting system capability alone -- and it shapes later enjoyment indirectly, via subsequent self-disclosure. Second, relationships are punctuated by discrete turning points -- crashes and surges -- that are partially traceable in multimodal behavior and open different intervention windows: surges are more behaviorally detectable in the moment, enjoyment surges persist more reliably than enjoyment crashes recover, and some crashes are better forecast from person-specific behavioral drift than detected after they have already occurred. Together, the findings suggest that longitudinal human-AI relationships are built through both slow accumulation and abrupt turning points.

Qubes OS is a revealing case for security measurement because its architecture makes component boundaries security-relevant. We present a protocol-driven longitudinal analysis of 109 public Qubes Security Bulletins (QSBs, 2011--2025), the official Qubes-maintained Xen Security Advisory (XSA) tracker, and a secondary vulnerability-event sensitivity series. The study measures the public advisory record rather than latent vulnerability incidence or realized compromise. The methodology combines audited deterministic component attribution, change-point analysis, overdispersion checks, severity-proxy weighting, censoring sensitivity, documentary latency lower bounds, and baseline-aware evaluation of vulnerability discovery models (VDMs). The results show persistent upstream dependence in that public record. On the official tracker, 113 of 464 XSAs affect Qubes; under primary labeling, 87 of 109 QSBs (79.8%) are attributable to Xen, CPU/microarchitectural, or other upstream components rather than Qubes-core logic, with similar results under weighted views. Change-point analyses identify 2015Q1 as the dominant break in the quarterly advisory series, while post-2018 annual disclosure rates are statistically flat. Poisson inferences are stable under dispersion diagnostics and negative-binomial sensitivity checks. The attribution codebook performs well in a stratified 30-QSB audit, and S-shaped VDMs fit descriptively but do not significantly outperform a rolling-mean baseline in short-horizon forecasts. Overall, the Qubes public advisory record appears stable, but not quiet: disclosure activity plateaus at a higher level than in the earliest years, while the observed burden remains concentrated in upstream trust anchors.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive and heterogeneous neurodegenerative disease in which predicting clinically meaningful milestones, such as assistive device use, remains challenging. We developed a time-to-event, digital-twin-inspired framework that integrates longitudinal ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) trajectories with survival modeling to support individualized prediction of functional decline and assistive device utilization. We constructed a harmonized longitudinal dataset by integrating diagnosis records, ALSFRS-R assessments, activities of daily living, and demographic information, followed by preprocessing to ensure data quality, temporal alignment, and cohort consistency. Correlation-based clustering identified coherent functional domains spanning bulbar, upper limb, axial, lower limb, and respiratory systems. Generalized additive mixed models characterized nonlinear, domain-specific functional decline across all domains. In addition, a temporal machine learning model was developed to predict longitudinal functional decline and capture stage-dependent disease progression. Cox proportional hazards modeling further identified lower limb function, particularly walking and stair climbing, as the strongest predictors of earlier wheelchair access. Building on these results, we implemented a digital twin-inspired temporal machine learning-based time-to-event (TTE) model that generates individualized survival curves and dynamically predicts wheelchair-free survival. This framework provides a scalable, interpretable, and clinically actionable approach for linking ALS progression with personalized decision support, with applications in proactive care planning, clinical trial stratification, and precision medicine.

The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and generative AI (GenAI) into education presents significant opportunities to enhance teaching and learning, while raising ethical concerns about the responsible use of these technologies in educational settings. Understanding how the public perceives and debates these issues is increasingly important for educators, institutions, and policymakers seeking to integrate AI responsibly and equitably. Social media platforms, where such debates unfold frequently and at scale, offer a valuable lens for capturing large-scale, real-time public reactions to key developments as they emerge. In this study, we analyse five years (2019-2024) of discourse on Twitter (now X) to trace the evolving public conversation around AI ethics in education, paying particular attention to the release of ChatGPT as a pivotal moment that reshaped the nature and tone of that discourse. Using BERT-based topic modelling and SetFit sentiment analysis to identify dominant themes and track sentiment over time, we find that the discourse has been predominantly positive across the observation period, with negative sentiment concentrated around specific ethical controversies. More recently, anxieties about academic integrity and the broader implications of generative AI have come to dominate the conversation. Rather than reflecting a polarized debate, public discourse appears pragmatic and largely receptive to AI integration, though accompanied by growing calls for ethical oversight and institutional accountability. By providing a longitudinal account of public sentiment surrounding AI ethics in education, this study informs educators, institutions, and policymakers an empirically grounded understanding of public expectations, informing the development of responsible, transparent, and equitable approaches to AI integration across educational contexts.

As AI code tools become integrated into programming environments, students increasingly describe intended behavior in natural language and rely on these tools to generate code, shifting emphasis from code writing to specification. Yet little is known about the comments students write as specifications in AI-assisted programming tasks. We analyze a four-year dataset of undergraduate programming submissions and reflections from tasks in which students wrote comments to guide code generation and refined solutions using test-case feedback. We introduce a taxonomy spanning three dimensions: comment type, code expression level, and code construct. Using automated classification, we examine how these dimensions vary across attempts and how students describe the process in their reflections. Our findings show that students mostly wrote natural-language What comments, shifted toward How comments for more procedural constructs, and focused more on verifying generated code than on repeatedly rewriting comments.

Long-term animal re-identification (ReID) must remain robust to gradual morphological evolution and seasonal appearance shifts. Although recent vision-language models provide strong pretrained visual representations, adapting them to longitudinal ecological settings remains challenging, particularly under identity and temporal distribution shifts. We present a parameter-efficient CLIP adaptation framework for animal ReID and introduce a continuous metadata-conditioning mechanism that incorporates numerical attributes directly into the prompt representation during training. While low-rank visual adaptation, prompt-based supervision, and cross-modal alignment provide the adaptation framework, the proposed metadata-conditioning strategy constitutes the primary methodological contribution. By preserving the continuous structure of numerical metadata rather than discretizing it into textual categories, the proposed approach enables smooth modulation of the embedding space during training while maintaining a purely visual inference pipeline. Experiments on a seven-year longitudinal fish dataset and multiple wildlife benchmarks demonstrate improved performance under closed-set, open-set, and time-aware evaluation protocols. The results demonstrate that continuous metadata conditioning improves robustness to longitudinal appearance variation and temporal distribution shifts, while parameter-efficient adaptation enables a purely visual inference pipeline without requiring metadata at test time. Code and evaluation splits can be found at: https://github.com/AnilOsmanTur/MetaPrompt-ReID.

Scalable Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provides uncertainty-aware analysis of correlated longitudinal data, but existing scalable approaches largely assume low-dimensional tabular predictors and do not directly accommodate high-dimensional modalities such as images and text. We address this limitation by learning one or more modality-specific neural encoders jointly with a GLMM objective, then performing variance-corrected stochasticgradient MCMC for the GLMM parameters conditional on the learned representation. This conditional-Bayes design combines supervised representation learning with posterior uncertainty quantification for population-level effects, subjectspecific heterogeneity, and modality-level random slopes. The resulting model preserves interpretable fixed and random effects for structured covariates and learned modalities while scaling gracefully to large longitudinal datasets. In simulation studies, our method recovers posterior means and variance estimates from full-data MCMC benchmarks after covariance correction. We further evaluate uncertainty through parameter-level interval coverage in simulations and predictive calibration on held-out data. Applications to glaucoma progression and adolescent mental health demonstrate that the framework allows nuanced assessment of the relative importance of each modality on both individual and population levels without sacrificing predictive performance.

Since ChatGPT's launch in November 2022, open-source agentic frameworks have proliferated, making framework selection important for engineering teams while obscured by popularity signals such as GitHub stars. This paper analyzes 15 major open-source AI agent framework repositories from late 2022 to early 2026, using 808,042 stars, 73,997 pull requests, 86,241 commits, and 987,330 user profiles to assess ecosystem health across awareness, adoption, and retention. Three findings emerge. First, headline popularity is unreliable. Star counts reflect hype cycles and inorganic activity. AutoGPT gained 111,967 stars in one month but converted fewer than 9 contributors per 1,000 stars, defined as contributor density in this research, compared with LangChain's 41. Lower-profile frameworks such as Pydantic-AI show higher contributor density, indicating deeper adoption. Second, mapping awareness against adoption shows that visibility and engagement diverge. MetaGPT and LangFlow have contributor density ratios below 5 even with their high visibility. Openai-agents-python's limited contributor base suggests institutional backing alone does not ensure community depth. By analyzing cross-framework contribution, we discover that LangChain functions as a shared infrastructure, attracting 82.5% of cross-ecosystem contributors. Third, retention drops most steeply in the first 30 days of initial contribution and stabilizes near 90 days. Overall, ecosystem health is better measured by contributor density, cross-ecosystem engagement, and retention than by stars alone. These metrics offer teams a more robust basis for framework evaluation.

Accurately predicting the temporal evolution of clinical biomarkers is crucial for the early diagnosis and management of neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease. However, this relies on longitudinal data to capture biomarker changes over time, which is often sparse and irregular due to the high cost, labor-intensive nature, and patient burden. To address these challenges, we propose ENC-ODE, an Event-level Neurodegenerative modeling in Continuous time with neural Ordinary Differential Equations. ENC-ODE predicts future biomarker evolution by modeling clinical events through diagnosis-conditioned continuous dynamics. A target-conditioned attention mechanism weights and aggregates event-level predictions for the target time and modality without history compression. Extensive experiments on Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset demonstrate that ENC-ODE outperforms representative sequence models while offering a scalable and neuroscientifically grounded solution for clinical support. The code is available at https://github.com/JardinDelSol/enc-ode.

Effective sub-typing (also known as grouping or clustering) of patients using their electronic health record (EHR) data can greatly inform precision medicine efforts. However, subtyping temporal EHR datasets is known to be challenging due to inherent EHR issues, including complexity and irregularity. In this study, we propose a self-supervised Mamba-based model that learns effective EHR representations and enables enhanced patient subtyping. We evaluate the proposed model on public and private real-world EHR datasets to classify the data based on the available labels and subtype patients based on the representations learned from the model. Through an extensive set of experiments, we demonstrate that our model's design choices lead to better performance compared to competitive baseline models for prediction. Moreover, we evaluate several clustering techniques to demonstrate that our findings offer valuable insights into subtyping patients based on temporal records from EHR models\footnote{Our implementations are available at https://github.com/healthylaife/triplet_mamba.

Epidemiological models often rely on survey data to represent how individuals make health-related decisions, such as whether to vaccinate or adopt protective behaviors. However, repeated large-scale surveys are costly, time-consuming, and limited in the range of scenarios they can capture. In this work, we investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can generate synthetic survey responses that reproduce patterns observed in real populations. Using longitudinal data from the FluPaths surveys, we first identify groups associated with broadly positive or negative attitudes toward vaccination through clustering analysis. We then evaluate several LLMs using a cluster-informed prompting approach to generate synthetic survey responses across multiple epidemic waves. Across models, the synthetic data generally reproduce the distributions of demographic characteristics, vaccination-related beliefs, risk perceptions, and health behaviors observed in the survey data. However, they are less successful at capturing how these factors vary together within respondents. Some models reproduce group-level vaccination trends more reliably than others, although performance varies across waves. We also trained a classifier to distinguish real from synthetic records and found that the generated responses remained identifiable as synthetic. Overall, our findings suggest that LLM-generated survey data may provide a useful tool for exploratory data augmentation and we hope that it could support agent-based epidemic modeling approaches. However, the generated data should not be treated as a substitute for human survey data without further methodological improvements and validation.

The Differential Time-Varying Effect Model (DTVEM) of Jacobson et al. (2019) is a popular tool for finding the best time lag in intensive longitudinal data, but it assumes everyone shares the same lag structure. The original authors named fixing this as future work, and it clashes with the premise of modern clinical research, which is that people differ. We present DTVEM-RE, an extension that lets each person have their own lag coefficients, with two versions of the confirmatory step: a discrete-time hierarchical Bayesian VAR in Stan, which pools across people and gives calibrated uncertainty, and a continuous-time per-person Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model in ctsem, which handles unevenly spaced beeps directly. We report four results. A simulation shows the Bayesian version recovers the between-person spread tau_a with bias below 0.01 and coverage of 90 to 93 percent. On the Fisher et al. (2017) EMA dataset (N=40), person-specific lag-1 effects vary by an order of magnitude across three mood items, the Bayesian and GAMM estimates agree closely (r=0.87 to 0.92), and DTVEM-RE gives the best one-step-ahead prediction among four discrete-time methods. A multi-lag version shows all nine tau_k values have credible intervals excluding zero, and the lag where people differ most changes across items, something lag-1-only methods like mlVAR cannot detect. Finally, the two versions agree almost exactly on person-specific lag-1 estimates (r >= 0.995), differing only as shrinkage predicts. DTVEM-RE is, to our knowledge, the first person-specific implementation of DTVEM-style lag detection, and it contains standard DTVEM as a special case.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression is highly heterogeneous and is typically observed through sparse and irregular longitudinal data, posing challenges for prediction and personalised monitoring. Existing machine learning approaches have improved AD prediction using multimodal data, yet often focus on static classification or cohort-level risk estimation, providing limited support for subject-specific modelling and uncertainty-aware reasoning. To address these limitations, we present a personalised digital twin framework for AD prediction and scenario-based analysis using multimodal longitudinal data. The proposed approach integrates complementary modelling strategies to capture clinical transitions and temporal dependencies across visits. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), including cognitive assessments, clinical variables, and MRI-derived phenotypes, the framework predicts cognitive status and diagnostic categories while quantifying predictive uncertainty and enabling patient-specific what-if trajectory analysis. Evaluation on leak-free subject-level splits demonstrates strong performance in score forecasting and diagnosis classification. In this sparse and irregular ADNI setting, transition-based modelling of adjacent visits achieved higher predictive accuracy than the sequence-based branch, suggesting that local transition modelling may be more data-efficient. While sequence models remain valuable for uncertainty-aware trajectory forecasting, local transition modelling offers a more data-efficient and robust predictive strategy. These findings highlight the importance of aligning temporal modelling strategies with clinical data structure and suggest that transition-based digital twin formulations may provide a practical and interpretable approach for personalised disease forecasting in neurodegenerative disorders.

Glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide, and early detection from fundus images is critical for effective disease management. While deep learning has achieved promising performance in fundus image analysis, most existing methods rely on single time-point images and fail to capture longitudinal structural and vascular changes associated with disease progression. Sequential fundus images acquired during clinical follow-up provide valuable temporal information; however, current sequential models often struggle to detect subtle early progression signals and commonly depend on fixed-length inputs or diagnostic cues from already glaucomatous images, limiting their clinical utility for early prediction. To address these limitations, we propose DiffSight-Former, a framework for glaucoma progression prediction from sequential fundus images. It incorporates a time-variant feature extraction module based on a fundus-specific foundation model to obtain robust anatomical representations. A multi-structure difference modeling module is introduced to quantify progression-related changes in the optic disc/cup region and retinal vasculature. These representations are integrated with temporal interval embeddings and processed by a time-aware Transformer to model disease progression and estimate the probability of future glaucoma onset. Experiments were conducted on two longitudinal datasets, SIGF (405 sequences) and GRAPE (263 sequences). On SIGF, DiffSight-Former achieved an AUC of 91.54% and a sensitivity of 92.16% for progression prediction. On GRAPE, it achieved an average accuracy of 87.48% across three clinical visual-field progression criteria. Compared with existing approaches, DiffSight-Former demonstrates strong performance and robustness across different temporal settings, highlighting its potential for longitudinal glaucoma monitoring and early risk prediction.

Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive brain disorder that gradually affects movement, cognitive function, and behavior. Identifying the stage of the disease accurately and consistently is important for understanding its course, grouping patients, personalized care, and discovering treatment. Existing clinical staging frameworks rely primarily on predefined clinical measurement thresholds and clinical expert decisions, yet these discrete cut-offs may obscure meaningful intra-stage variability and remain vulnerable to inter-rater differences, especially in motor and functional assessments. To address these limitations, we developed an unsupervised machine learning framework based on dynamic graph representation learning to capture temporal relationships within and across patients from longitudinal clinical measurements. Using the learned representations, we applied K-means++ clustering to identify well-separated groups. We then iteratively increased the number of clusters (k), using stability analysis to assess robustness and reveal additional meaningful clusters beyond the initial optimal solution. We applied the framework to 302 individuals from the Enroll-HD cohort (1,477 visits, 44 clinical variables per visit; 80% manifest participants), enabling data-driven discovery of HD stages reflecting natural clinical progression. Despite the limited cohort size, the proposed framework achieved robust clustering performance using a four-dimensional latent space, identifying four meaningful and statistically distinct disease stages through clustering stability analysis. Each stage corresponded to well-defined clinical measurement boundaries, with minimal overlap compared to previously established clinical staging methods.

Identifying subtypes of complex conditions, such as Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), often requires capturing latent patterns in longitudinal omics data. However, these data are typically high-dimensional, sparsely sampled, and irregularly observed over time, posing substantial challenges for conventional (bi)clustering and functional data analysis methods. We propose Tri-SfSVD, a unified sparse functional Singular Value Decomposition framework for discovering biclusters and triclusters in longitudinal data. Unlike existing functional biclustering methods that rely on ad hoc imputation or enforce restrictive shape-homogeneity assumptions, Tri-SfSVD integrates continuous trajectory estimation with simultaneous subject, feature, and temporal selection within a single optimization framework. By imposing sparse penalties across subjects, variables, and temporal subregions, the proposed method works directly on observed data to uncover localized structures at the subject, subject-feature, and subject-feature-time levels. Extensive simulations demonstrate that Tri-SfSVD outperforms existing approaches in high-dimensional settings. Applied to IBD multi-omics data, the method identified three biclusters linking sample clusters with distinct IBD-related clinical characteristics to microbial pathway groups associated with specific bacterial taxa, providing interpretable subject-pathway associations for characterizing disease heterogeneity. Applied to multi-channel EEG data, the method identified three triclusters linking sample clusters with distinct alcohol-related phenotypes to localized brain activity patterns, including subgroup differences separated by temporal subregions within the same spatial region.

Purpose: To develop an interpretable and trustworthy AI framework that combines deep learning based MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score (MOAKS) prediction with interpretable statistical modeling to study structure-pain relationships at scale using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI). Materials and Methods: We first developed a deep learning framework to predict MOAKS features directly from knee MRIs and incorporated conformal prediction to provide prediction uncertainty quantification. This uncertainty-aware strategy enables explicit filtering of model outputs, retaining only high-confidence MOAKS predictions at the knee level. Second, we applied a longitudinal latent class mixed model (LCMM) to examine associations between key structural abnormalities and four complementary knee pain measurements. Results: Among the three MRI-defined abnormalities (i.e., bone marrow lesions (BML), cartilage loss (CART), and meniscal extrusion (ME)), our framework substantially improved the Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) and some other metrics. For example, MCC increased from 0.69 to 0.91 for BML, from 0.45 to 0.80 for CART, and from 0.59 to 0.89 for ME. Using these high-confidence predictions, we expanded the sample size to 2,175 knees for the LCMM analysis. Two distinct pain trajectories were identified (rapid and stable pain progression). The estimated odds ratios (95% CI) for the rapid progression group were 1.62 (1.12-2.35) for BML, 1.83 (1.24-2.70) for CART loss, and 2.50 (1.75-3.57) for ME. Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of these structural abnormalities as risk factors for pain and functional progression in osteoarthritis.

Public discourse and emerging policy typically assume that AI emotional support is a deliberate act: a lonely user consciously seeking comfort from a dedicated companion chatbot. In this paper, we draw on emerging empirical evidence and argue that this picture is inaccurate on two accounts, both in how AI emotional support arises and how it shapes future behavior. First, AI emotional support commonly emerges incidentally within task-oriented interactions on general-purpose platforms, much as workplace friendships deepen through collaboration. Second, these incidental encounters are path-dependent: positive experiences of AI emotional support update people's beliefs about AI's emotional capabilities and redirect their choices for future emotional support, increasing preference for AI and decreasing preference for humans. We review recent evidence, including a large-scale longitudinal study conducted in collaboration with OpenAI, showing that daily five-minute conversations with an AI about personal issues over 28 days led to a 10.3% decrease in the preference for seeking support from humans and an 11.6% increase in the preference for AI. These findings suggest that current policy, focused on companion apps and isolated interactions, cannot adequately protect human connection. Instead, effective regulations should extend to general-purpose AI systems and address cumulative, trajectory-level changes in how people seek support. Recognizing how people stumble into AI emotional support and how those encounters redirect human connections over time is essential to safeguarding human well-being.

Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes in large observational studies is computationally demanding, particularly when outcomes are rare. While g-formula-based methods such as the iterative conditional expectation (ICE) estimator provide a principled framework for longitudinal causal inference, they become computationally expensive, especially when bootstrap-based variance estimation is required. In addition, outcome rarity at each time point induces severe class imbalance, leading to instability and convergence issues in logistic regression and related models. To address these challenges, we propose a principled subsampling and reweighting strategy for longitudinal survival data that can be applied to a range of existing causal effect estimators in this setting, including the ICE estimator. The proposed method substantially reduces computational burden while preserving consistency and improving estimation stability in rare-outcome settings. We evaluate the method through simulations and validate it using a large-scale EHR cohort study on social and behavioral determinants of health (SBDH) and suicide risk, demonstrating its effectiveness for modeling rare outcomes in longitudinal data.

The study of brain morphology changes in normal individuals may capture aspects of functionally-relevant brain aging not fully indicated by gross volumetry. Despite the important role of subcortical brain structures in cognition, the associations between their morphological trajectories and cognitive changes in aging have not been documented. We use neuroimaging, demographic, and cognitive data from a large longitudinal study of cognitive aging, the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936, to explore shape changes in subcortical brain structures of community-dwelling individuals across their 8th decade of life. We investigate the association of these changes with cognitive aging using ANCOVA and mixed linear model analyses. Subcortical shape changes were heterogeneous, with varied atrophy patterns across whole period. The hippocampus and the ventral DC experienced varied morphological deformations (from its baseline point) different in left and right hemispheres, while the thalami and globus pallidi shapes, for example, experienced a more uniform volume contraction, nearly symmetrical throughout different timelines. Changes in general cognition were mainly associated with inwards and outwards vertex displacements between the time-points.

Although a growing body of research has begun to describe user--LLM interactions, the picture it paints is largely static; little is known about how individual users change their behavior over time. To address this gap, we analyze the conversational trajectories of ~12,000 randomly sampled Microsoft Bing Copilot users and compare these with data from WildChat-4.8M. While the Copilot data contains significant population-level trends, we find that trends in individual user trajectories are much weaker; user habits prove to be overwhelmingly sticky. We also find stark differences between users of different activity levels: more active users have more successful conversations and use the LLM for more complex and professionally oriented tasks. Some user trends also appear in WildChat-4.8M, but we find evidence that this dataset is significantly skewed towards highly proficient "power" users. Ultimately, our results suggest that existing user behavior is difficult to change and demonstrate the extent of user heterogeneity. Our comparison between datasets highlights that WildChat does not represent typical user--AI interactions, an important caveat for downstream uses of the data.

Chronic dermatologic diseases such as pemphigus require long-term follow-up, generating extensive longitudinal clinical documentation that is difficult to review comprehensively during routine visits and increasing clinician workload as well as the risk of missing critical historical information. We evaluated whether a locally deployed, privacy-preserving small language model (SLM) could retrieve structured clinical features and generate longitudinal summaries from long-term dermatology follow-up records. In this retrospective case series, thirty pemphigus patients contributed 541 visit notes that were aggregated into full longitudinal records (89,336 words); 56 clinically relevant features were annotated by two expert dermatologists. The locally deployed SLM (Qwen3 4B Thinking 2507) was queried with each complete record to retrieve 56 features and generate one final report summaries. Across 1,680 feature retrieval tasks, mean accuracy was 82.25%. Dermatologists' ratings of AI-generated summaries were high for overall quality (8.23-8.47), clinical accuracy (7.93-8.20), and usefulness (8.47-8.50), with no significant inter-evaluator differences and an overall preference for AI summaries in 53.3% of evaluations. These findings suggest that privacy-preserving, locally deployed SLMs can outperform medical experts and reliably generate clinically meaningful longitudinal summaries. SLMs may support clinical decision-making when integrated with appropriate oversight.

We present a longitudinal, drift-aware evaluation of adversarial robustness across more than a decade of Android applications using static and dynamic feature representations extracted from emulator and real-device executions. The dataset is organized into yearly slices and evaluated under three deployment protocols that emulate realistic learning scenarios: (1) same-year training and testing, (2) cross-year deployment without model updates, and (3) expanding-window retraining with cumulative historical data. Across multiple classifier families, adversarial examples are generated using FGSM and SPSA under feasibility constraints. We measure clean performance, Adversarial Accuracy (AA), Attack Success Rate (ASR), and introduce temporal linkage metrics -- RobustDrop, $Δ$ASR, and Adversarial Amplification Factor (AAF) -- to quantify the relationship between distribution shift and robustness degradation.nResults show that temporal separation is associated with reduced adversarial robustness under the evaluated transfer-based feature-space setting. As the train-test gap increases, clean accuracy and adversarial accuracy decline, while attack success exhibits configuration-dependent increases, particularly under FGSM perturbations and static features. Expanding-window retraining mitigates, but does not eliminate, robustness loss under continued distributional evolution. These findings indicate that temporal drift should be considered when assessing the long-term robustness of intelligent detection systems under evolving data distributions and highlight the need for drift-aware robustness assessment frameworks in long-lived adversarial environments.

Predicting how a dynamical unit evolves over time - how an individual ages, an epidemic spreads, or a physical system degrades - typically requires dense longitudinal tracking. When only extremely sparse or entirely cross-sectional data is available, inferring individualized, continuous-time trajectories is fundamentally ill-posed. Existing methods force a strict compromise: sequence models (e.g. latent ODEs) require dense longitudinal data, while cross-sectional methods (e.g. optimal transport, flow matching-based) map aggregate populations, losing individual dynamics. In this paper, we demonstrate that this dichotomy can be broken. We introduce CADENCE, a principled probabilistic framework that recovers continuous individual trajectories from isolated snapshots by anchoring latent dynamics to static, individual-level contexts. We provide novel identifiability guarantees for single-timepoint trajectory inference. By combining a score-based spatial encoder (bijective Probability Flow ODE) to eliminate diffeomorphic ambiguities with a Soft Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) router, we show that individual dynamical parameters and routing function are jointly identifiable. Across a suite of benchmarks spanning physical systems to real-world biological data, CADENCE, trained strictly on extremely sparse snapshots with context structure, matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art sequential models trained on dense, full-trajectory data.

We introduce a novel Longitudinal Focused Attention Meditation Electroencephalography (L-FAME) dataset and an accompanying benchmark, designed to foster research into the neural effects of various meditation practices and the evolution of these effects over a six-week training period. The dataset contains EEG recordings and psychological assessments from 74 healthy college participants, collected at two distinct time points: pre-intervention and post-intervention. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three distinct meditation groups: two mantra-based techniques (SA-TA-NA-MA and Hare Krishna) and one Breath Focus practice. Leveraging this unique longitudinal and comparative dataset, we propose a benchmark suite comprising three distinct classification tasks: (1) cognitive state decoding to distinguish between resting and meditation states, (2) fine-grained classification of the specific meditation techniques, and (3) cross-session adaptation to evaluate model generalization across the longitudinal time gap. We provide comprehensive baseline results for these tasks utilizing a range of classical machine learning algorithms and deep learning architectures. The complete dataset, preprocessing pipelines, and benchmark evaluation code will be publicly released, offering a valuable resource and a standardized framework for the development and comparison of new analytical methods in computational meditation research and EEG-based machine learning. The dataset is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/L-FAME-Dataset-Benchmark/L-FAME

Long-horizon clinical simulation -- predicting how a patient's physiology evolves over years under specified interventions -- is central to chronic-disease care, yet existing electronic health record (EHR) models are predominantly discriminative, and general-purpose large language models drift under repeated interventions. We propose the \textbf{ChronoMedicalWorld Model (CMWM)}, an action-conditioned latent world-model framework for learning patient trajectories from longitudinal care data. CMWM couples a joint-embedding state encoder with a wide action encoder that admits both structured intervention indicators and free-text communication embeddings, and trains a recurrent latent transition module under a six-term objective: next-observation supervision, next-latent prediction, SIGReg latent regularisation, and three physiology-aware shape priors (slope, continuity, large-jump penalty). A closed-loop rollout-prefix protocol matches training to deployment, so the model is optimised against the same multi-step error it exhibits at inference. As a concrete case study, we instantiate CMWM for annual estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) trajectory forecasting in chronic kidney disease (CKD). On a 2{,}232-patient nephrology cohort, the CKD instantiation achieves a dynamic-50% history rollout test mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.384 and root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 10.256, against 7.964 and 11.069 for a tuned GPT-5.5 structured-prompting baseline ($-7.28\%$ MAE, $-7.35\%$ RMSE), with the gain dominated by the dialogue portion of patient--health-coach communication. The framework is not CKD-specific: its architecture, loss design, and training protocol apply to any chronic condition that can be cast as periodic clinical state interleaved with structured and conversational interventions.

An effective healthcare agent must be able to recall and reason over a patient's longitudinal medical history. However, the absence of datasets with realistic long-term dialogue timelines limits systematic evaluation. Real clinical text is constrained by privacy and ethics, while existing benchmarks focus on isolated interactions, failing to capture cross-session reasoning. We introduce a framework for synthesizing high-quality, long-term medical dialogues with LLMs. Our approach entails a knowledge-guided decomposition into three stages: constructing synthetic patient profiles with diverse disease and complication trajectories, generating multi-turn dialogues per encounter, and integrating them into a coherent longitudinal history dataset, MediLongChat. We establish three benchmark tasks-In-dialogue Reasoning, Cross-dialogue Reasoning, and Synthesis Reasoning-to evaluate the memory capabilities of healthcare agents. To assess data quality, we introduce a multi-dimensional evaluation framework combining vector-based metrics with LLM-as-a-judge assessments. Specifically, we define automatic measures-Faithfulness, Coherence, and Diversity-together with two LLM-based evaluations: Correctness and Realism. Benchmark experiments show that even state-of-the-art LLMs struggle with MediLongChat. These findings highlight the benchmark's applicability and underscore the need for tailored methods to advance healthcare agents.

Algorithmic feeds have become primary environments for encountering information online, yet while they shape what people see, less is known about how sustained feed exposure shapes how people write. Drawing on Cultivation Theory, we examine whether algorithmic feeds function as online environments that leave measurable traces in users' language. We leverage a large-scale longitudinal dataset of 235M posts by 4M users on Bluesky, and conduct a quasi-experimental study matching an initial pool of 368,513 users exposed to one of three feeds -- News, Science, and Blacksky -- with a pool of 2,001,915 active control users who did not engage with any of these feeds. We examine linguistic evolution across three dimensions: lexico-semantics, psycholinguistics, and topics. We find that users exposed to these feeds show significantly greater stylistic accommodation, semantic alignment, and register formalization than matched controls. These effects vary markedly by feed identity -- Blacksky produces the deepest psycholinguistic restructuring, with significant shifts in cognitive processing, affective expression, and pronoun use, while News and Science effects are largely confined to register and topical focus. Regression models reveal that reposting is the most consistent predictor of linguistic convergence across all feeds, whereas posting and bookmarking show feed-dependent effects, with effects differing more than fourfold across feeds. Our work extends Cultivation Theory beyond belief formation to linguistic behavior, demonstrating that feeds function as persistent linguistic environments that gradually shape what and how users write online. Our work has implications for studying algorithmic influence, online identity formation, and the design and governance of feed-based platforms that mediate online interactions.

Google AI Overviews (AIOs) are arguably the most widely encountered deployment of generative AI, reaching over 2 billion users who may not realize the answers they see are AI-generated. Where search engines have traditionally surfaced ranked sources and left users to evaluate them, AIOs synthesize and deliver a single answer - giving Google unprecedented editorial control over what users read and know. We present a large-scale longitudinal measurement study, issuing 55,393 trending queries across 19 topical categories over a 40-day window (March 13 - April 21, 2026). We report four main findings. First, overall AIO activation is 13.7%, rising to 64.7% for question-form queries, while politically sensitive topics see markedly lower rates. Second, AIO-cited domains are more credible than co-displayed first-page results, yet nearly 30% do not appear in those results at all, indicating a source selection mechanism distinct from Google's ranking algorithm. Third, decomposing responses into 98,020 atomic claims, 11.0% are unsupported by the cited pages - with omission the dominant failure mode - and source quality and claim fidelity are largely independent. Fourth, well over half of AIO-cited pages carry display advertising, meaning publishers lose revenue when AIOs suppress the click-through, even as Google's own sponsored ads continue to appear on the same page. Together, these findings document a rapid transformation of the online information ecosystem whose consequences for epistemic security remain poorly understood.

Real-world digital Parkinson's disease assessment faces challenges such as heterogeneous modalities, cross-device bias, and incomplete labeling. Existing methods often focus on average predictive performance, lacking the reliability mechanisms needed for retrospective reliability-aware assessment - namely, determining when the model is reliable, when to reject an assessment, when to retest, and from which symptom dimensions the predictions are based. This paper proposes SGC-RML, which maps speech, gait, wearable motion, mobility tasks, and clinical variables to a shared 8-dimensional symptom node space (7 clinical symptom nodes and 1 reliability_state auxiliary node), unifying motor and non-motor representations through a symptom atlas. By jointly introducing uncertainty estimation, conformal calibration, and selective decision routing, the model can not only predict symptoms and severity but also reject assessments or suggest retests when evidence is insufficient. We validate this framework on five real-world PD datasets, covering classification, regression, event detection, and longitudinal severity prediction. Experiments show that SGC-RML achieves an MAE of 4.579 / R^2 of 0.772 on PPMI, an AUC of 0.953 on mPower, and an AUC of 0.825 on PADS. Under leak-free temporal anchoring, as few as 5 subject-specific anchors transform UCI from an essentially non-predictive subject-independent setting (motor MAE 8.38, CCC 0.02) into a calibrated longitudinal assessment (motor MAE 3.24, CCC 0.756) with split-conformal coverage held at the 0.80 target. Under the Daphnet LOSO protocol, it achieves an F1 of 0.803 / AUC of 0.872. These results demonstrate that SGC-RML provides a unified paradigm for accurate, calibrated, auditable, and symptom-interpretable retrospective longitudinal assessment of PD under incomplete multimodal conditions.

This discussion paper reflects on how quantitative approaches to historical linguistics interact with dataset properties. Drawing on two worked examples, we examine English data using quad-based concept modelling of Early Modern English discourse in EEBO-TCP (c. 1470s-1690s; 765M words) alongside SynFlow analysis of scientific writing in Royal Society Corpus 6.0.4 (1750-1799; drawn from a 78.6M-token open corpus). Through parallel comparison, the paper explores how each approach operationalises concepts, the data assumptions they entail, and the diachronic interpretations they support. We argue that comparative methodological reflection clarifies the limits of purely lexical, frequency-based approaches and highlights how dataset structure shapes the kinds of semantic change that quantitative methods can reliably detect.

Middle school is a key window for building core academic skills and the learning routines students carry into later grades, yet many students still fall behind because help is often limited and comes too late, after they have already been stuck for a while. Learning Management Systems (LMSs) are now standard infrastructure for distributing materials, collecting work, assessing students' tasks, and recording grades, but in most deployments they still behave more like workflow tools than instructional supports. The result is the usual bottleneck: students keep practicing through confusion, teachers triage questions, and feedback that could have corrected the misunderstanding arrives after the misconception has already hardened. To address this gap, we propose an AI-integrated LMS for middle school instruction, paired with a longitudinal study design to test whether sustained, bounded AI support changes outcomes through high school and into post-high school pathways. The proposed platform adds policy-gated AI assistance to everyday coursework, delivering formative feedback and hinting, recommending spaced review and adaptive practice based on mastery, and providing teacher-facing dashboards that summarize misconception patterns and flag sustained struggle. Because the platform is intended for minors, the design is privacy-first, using data minimization, role-based access control, age-appropriate response constraints, and auditable logs of AI interactions. Beyond short-term performance, the evaluation plan links fine-grained learning traces (attempts, revisions, help-seeking, and pacing) to institutional outcomes where feasible, so we can separate tool adoption effects from longer-run changes in learning trajectories.

Accurate prediction of conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimers Diseases (AD) is essential for early intervention, however, developing reliable conversion predictive models is difficult to develop due to limited longitudinal data availability We evaluate TabPFN (Tabular Pre-Trained Foundation Network) against traditional machine learning methods for predicting 3 year MCI to AD conversion using the TADPOLE dataset derived from ADNI. Using multimodal biomarker features extracted from demographics, APOE4, MRI volumes, CSF markers, and PET imaging, we conducted an experimental comparison across varying training set sizes (N=50 to 1000) and models including XGBoost, Random Forest, LightGBM, and Logistic Regression. TabPFN achieved one the highest performance (AUC=0.892), outperforming LightGBM (AUC=0.860) and demonstrating advantages in low data settings. At N=50 training samples, TabPFN maintained strong AUC while the traditional machine learning models struggles at small training samples. These findings demonstrate that foundation models are promising for disease prediction in data limited scenarios, such as Alzheimers diseases.

Thematic maps play a central role in academic communication, yet their large-scale design evolution has rarely been examined empirically. This study presents a longitudinal and multilingual analysis of thematic map design practices in academic cartography from 1990 to 2020. We compile a corpus of 45,732 research articles from sixteen authoritative Chinese- and English-language journals and extract 23,928 maps using computer vision and large-model-based document parsing to build a structured dataset. Map design characteristics are quantified across three dimensions: map elements, color design, and layout structure. Results show that Chinese- and Englishlanguage academic maps share highly similar structural conventions, typically employing restrained color palettes with neutral dominant hues, low saturation, high brightness, and limited hue diversity, as well as centered layouts with high main-map occupation ratios. Differences exist in that English-language maps show slightly greater hue richness and compactness, whereas Chinese-language maps historically rely more on neutral hues and integrated layouts. Temporal analysis reveals parallel evolutionary trends in both groups, including increasing element richness, legend usage, and hue diversity, alongside stable layout structures. Overall, the findings suggest that academic map design evolution is characterized more by institutional convergence than cultural divergence.

Accurate forecasting of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is critical for grid management and infrastructure planning. Yet the field continues to rely on legacy benchmarks; such as the Palo Alto (2020) dataset; that fail to reflect the scale and behavioral diversity of modern charging networks. To address this, we introduce a novel large-scale longitudinal dataset collected across Scotland (2022 2025), which release it as an open benchmark for the community. Building on this dataset, we formulate EV charging demand as a spatio-temporal latent Gaussian field and perform approximate Bayesian inference via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). The resulting model jointly captures spatial dependence, temporal dynamics, and covariate effects within a unified proba bilistic framework. On station-level forecasting tasks, our approach achieves competitive predictive accuracy against machine learning baselines, while additionally providing principled uncertainty quan tification and interpretable spatial and temporal decompositions properties that are essential for risk-aware infrastructure planning.

Segment-level disclosures are a central component of financial reporting, providing insight into firms' internal organization and the allocation of economic activities across operating units. However, segment information is often presented in both qualitative and quantitative forms, dispersed across tables and narrative sections of Form 10-K filings. Empirical research relying on structured databases faces both completeness and comparability challenges, as some firm-year observations may be missing, nested segment disclosures are not captured, and support for longitudinal and cross-firm comparability is limited. This study develops a large language model-based framework to extract segment disclosures directly from Form 10-K filings and to preserve both reportable and nested segment information. We further design a retrieval augmented system that incorporates information across multiple filings to support comparability. We use two representative settings to demonstrate its application: longitudinal analysis within a firm to interpret segment changes over time, and cross firm alignment of geographic segments across firms with different reporting structures. The results indicate that the artifact accurately extracts segment-level information and effectively addresses questions that require cross-period knowledge, demonstrating the potential of LLM-based approaches to enhance the measurement and interpretation of segment disclosures.

This paper examines whether students are entering the generative AI era with sufficiently strong educational foundations, focusing on the relationship between learning environments and changes in ICT related career aspirations across countries. The analysis uses country-level data from PISA 2018 and 2022, combining indicators of student autonomy, digital skills and teacher support. A mixed-method approach is applied, including descriptive statistics, regression analysis, clustering, latent representation learning (using Variational Autoencoder-VAE), discriminant analysis and probabilistic modeling to capture both observable and latent dimensions of educational readiness. Unlike prior research that treats learning loss, digital skills and career expectations separately, our analysis integrates them within a comparative longitudinal framework. It shifts the focus from short-term post-pandemic effects to the structural capacity of education systems to prepare students for digital and AI-driven labor markets. Results show a global but uneven increase in ICT career aspirations. Digital skills emerge as the strongest and most consistent predictor, while teacher support plays a complementary role. Autonomy shows weaker, context-dependent effects. Educational readiness is multidimensional, and ICT aspirations evolve relatively independently from other career domains.

College students increasingly use AI chatbots to support academic reading, yet we lack granular understanding of how these interactions shape their reading experience and cognitive engagement. We conducted an eight-week longitudinal study with 15 undergraduates who used AI to support assigned readings in a course. We collected 838 prompts across 239 reading sessions and developed a coding schema categorizing prompts into four cognitive themes: Decoding, Comprehension, Reasoning, and Metacognition. Comprehension prompts dominated (59.6%), with Reasoning (29.8%), Metacognition (8.5%), and Decoding (2.1%) less frequent. Most sessions (72%) contained exactly three prompts, the required minimum of the reading assignment. Within sessions, students showed natural cognitive progression from comprehension toward reasoning, but this progression was truncated. Across eight weeks, students' engagement patterns remained stable, with substantial individual differences persisting throughout. Qualitative analysis revealed an intention-behavior gap: students recognized that effective prompting required effort but rarely applied this knowledge, with efficiency emerging as the primary driver. Students also strategically triaged their engagement based on interest and academic pressures, exhibiting a novel pattern of reading through AI rather than with it: using AI-generated summaries as primary material to filter which sections merited deeper attention. We discuss design implications for AI reading systems that scaffold sustained cognitive engagement.

Affective computing has matured rapidly in laboratory settings, yet no prior dataset combines (i) months-to-years of duration, (ii) a naturalistic workplace context, (iii) a stable small-team social structure, and (iv) a fully passive sensing protocol that survives institutional review. We introduce WELD, the first dataset to satisfy all four. WELD comprises 733,780 per-frame seven-class facial-expression probability vectors from 49 employees of a Chinese software company over 30.1 months (Nov 2021 - May 2024) -- the longest naturalistic in-the-wild emotion corpus and the only multi-year corpus supporting both within-individual longitudinal and within-team relational analyses on the same subjects. Data are released under a four-tier access model with only aggregated probabilities publicly downloadable. We validate the corpus by replicating three established phenomena (+43.1% weekend valence boost; 13:00-trough diurnal cycle; Shanghai 2022 lockdown effect d=-0.40), and report four novel findings: (1) variance decomposition attributes 19.3% of daily-valence variance to between-person differences and 29.8% to month seasonality -- a quantitative ceiling for future predictive models; (2) Hidden Markov decomposition reveals six emotional regimes with asymmetric negative-state dwell times (16-18 d vs 3 d); (3) leave-one-person-out turnover prediction reaches AUC=0.79 yet a Cox concordance index of only 0.52, exposing a metric-trap when AUC is reported without survival-aware baselines; (4) the corpus reveals systematic over-prediction of "angry" by an off-the-shelf FER model on neutral Asian faces (0.194 vs ~0.05 Western priors), making WELD valuable for FER fairness audits. A complex-systems analysis of the corpus appears as a companion preprint (arXiv:2510.16046).

Electronic health Records (EHRs) have become a cornerstone in modern-day healthcare. They are a crucial part for analyzing the progression of patient health; however, their complexity, characterized by long, multivariate sequences, sparsity, and missing values poses significant challenges in traditional deep learning modeling. While Transformer-based models have demonstrated success in modeling EHR data and predicting clinical outcomes, their quadratic computational complexity and limited context length hinder their efficiency and practical applications. On the other hand, State Space Models (SSMs) like Mamba present a promising alternative offering linear-time sequence modeling and improved efficiency for handling long sequences, but focus mostly on mixing sequence-level information rather than channel-level data. To overcome these challenges, we propose HyMaTE (A Hybrid Mamba and Transformer Model for EHR Representation Learning), a novel hybrid model tailored for representing longitudinal data, combining the strengths of SSMs with advanced attention mechanisms. By testing the model on predictive tasks on multiple clinical datasets, we demonstrate HyMaTE's ability to capture an effective, richer, and more nuanced unified representation of EHR data. Additionally, the interpretability of the outcomes achieved by self-attention illustrates the effectiveness of our model as a scalable and generalizable solution for real-world healthcare applications. Codes are available at: https://github.com/healthylaife/HyMaTE.