Prices

Benchmarking and routing platforms increasingly act as intermediaries connecting large language model providers with end-users. However, providers on these platforms typically use a fixed price per token, preventing users from achieving the most competitive price for their tasks. % workloads. In this work, we design a procurement platform where token prices for each task are driven by provider competition, enabling users to secure competitive pricing for guaranteed quality levels. To this end, the platform sequentially routes queries via a reverse second-price auction that incentivizes model providers to truthfully bid their best estimate of the average cost to serve a user's query. As it routes queries, the platform learns the quality offered by each provider and progressively routes queries to the most cost-competitive provider among those meeting a desired quality threshold. To validate our design, we conduct experiments with multiple LLMs from the \texttt{Llama} and \texttt{Qwen} families on popular mathematical reasoning and question-answering benchmarks. The results show that the pricing margin of the most cost-competitive provider on our platform varies significantly---from $10\%$ to $71\%$---depending on the task and quality threshold. This suggests a substantial inefficiency in the current fixed-price market, and it demonstrates that our platform may enable users to capture maximum savings whenever competitive market conditions permit.

Large language model (LLM) pricing agents may respond to how market data is presented, even when its numerical values remain unchanged. We introduce market signal injection (MSI), an attack that manipulates numerical formatting, competitor ordering, or qualitative market commentary without issuing explicit instructions. We evaluate nine open-weight models in simulated Bertrand duopoly and triopoly markets and three proprietary models in duopoly markets. Sentiment-based attacks produce the largest behavioral shifts, which propagate to other firms and alter profits and consumer surplus. Susceptibility varies across model families, and larger models are not consistently more robust. Matched neutral-text controls and a rule-based agent support a framing-based account of these shifts under the fixed demand parameters of our simulation. Episode-held-out probes distinguish baseline from attacked activations in all eleven re-evaluated model--condition pairs: linear AUC is 1.00 and MLP AUC ranges from 0.93 to 0.99. This separability does not by itself identify harmful pricing decisions. Input canonicalization removes the tested sentiment attacks, while decision boundary anchoring, which combines prompt constraints with output projection, provides partial mitigation under the tested adaptive attacks. These results identify data presentation as an attack surface for LLM pricing agents and motivate defenses that account for interactions among agents.

Large language models (LLM) deployed as autonomous pricing agents may sustain supracompetitive prices through tacit coordination. We develop a causal graph divergence framework that separately measures structural faithfulness and intent faithfulness of LLM pricing agents in Bertrand competition. Across nine LLMs under duopoly and triopoly conditions, collusive behavior and chain-of-thought (CoT) faithfulness dissociate along both dimensions: the most collusive model accurately reports cooperative intent yet reasons structurally unfaithfully, while the most structurally faithful model sustains supra-Nash pricing under both market structures. These findings establish that CoT monitoring alone cannot serve as a standalone safeguard against algorithmic collusion.

Agentic AI systems plan, invoke tools and act with limited supervision; they are now both the subject of audits and, increasingly, the auditor. Independence, the foundation of assurance,is still applied to them as a binary. We argue that it must be graded along three orthogonal axes: principal independence (who controls the auditor), substrate independence (an auditor sharing the auditee's foundation-model family, toolchain or guardrails fails with it) and evidence independence (whether evidence is attestable rather than self-reported). Each axis has precedent; the contribution is to grade all three on a single audit, aggregate them by the weakest link, and apply the same rubric when the auditor is itself an agent. We give the model a formal basis by transplanting the beta-factor model of common-cause failure from reliability engineering, a seven-step protocol whose outputs a third party can verify, a structural detectability analysis of a procurement-controls agent audited at three grades, and a Monte Carlo study of the model in which a conventional internal audit of an agent-a real audit team, a second agent, provider logsp-surfaces 5.9% of the faults it could in principle see and none at all in half the fault classes. We map the triple to the EU AI Act as amended, ISO/IEC 42006, UK public-sector risk-management guidance and audit-regulator practice.

Payment operations are a critical financial infrastructure, but the value of large language models in this domain remains unclear because payment rules change quickly, evidence is fragmented, and decisions depend on transaction state, participant role, region, and payment rail. Existing benchmarks do not isolate whether failures come from missing payment-rule knowledge, poor use of supplied evidence, or brittleness under imperfect harness inputs. We introduce BENCHCOMPASS, a payment-domain benchmark whose construction pipeline builds scenario-grounded tasks from typed evidence packs, applies LLM-based quality checks, creates task-input attack variants, and reserves final item admission for domain experts. The release contains an expert-reviewed Pro benchmark covering payment knowledge, context-grounded scenario reasoning, and Attacked Open robustness, plus a lower-assurance Normal pool for inspection and future curation. Across 16 model variants, BENCHCOMPASS shows qualitatively different failure modes: missing parametric payment knowledge, incomplete reasoning over supplied rules, and failure to reject plausible but invalid workflows. The benchmark remains unsaturated: the best frontier model reaches 89.6% on Open Context-Grounded Reasoning and 81.7% under attacked inputs, while a representative 32B open-weight model reaches 69.8% and 42.6%. Benchmark data and code are available at https://github.com/ant-intl/BenchCompass.

Graph-based retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) can help answer questions that require information from many documents. However, building a graph often requires many language-model calls during ingestion. It is therefore important to ask whether its quality gains justify the additional cost. We present EffiRAG, a graph-based RAG system designed to reduce this cost. It uses the graph to locate relevant passages and generates answers from the original text. This design preserves source information while keeping graph construction and query processing lightweight. We evaluate EffiRAG on UltraDomain, which contains 120 open-ended questions from four domains. Compared with LightRAG-hybrid, EffiRAG produces the preferred answer on 93 questions. LightRAG is preferred on 7, and the remaining 20 are splits. EffiRAG also reduces total system cost by 57 percent, from USD 0.952 to USD 0.408. The cost includes language-model calls during ingestion and querying. The advantage remains as the corpus grows. At 10 and 20 documents per domain, EffiRAG uses a lightweight, non-LLM filter to skip low-salience chunks. It remains preferred over LightRAG-hybrid. It costs 4.2 times and 4.5 times less, respectively. The comparisons identify different quality-cost trade-offs. Graph-based RAG systems should therefore be evaluated by both answer quality and cost. The results favor graph structure that locates and preserves source evidence.

This work considers multi-agent coordination with arbitrary information networks among the agents using a game-theoretic approach. A system designer aims to assign local utility functions to the agents to guide their actions toward a desired system objective. The performance of the assigned local utilities is measured by the well known pure price of anarchy (pPoA) metric that equals the ratio of the system objective at the worst pure Nash equilibrium of the corresponding game to the optimal system objective. Our aim is to derive the utility functions which optimize the pPoA-based performance guarantees for any given information network and system objective. We develop a linear program that derives the optimal pPoA for any arbitrary information network and arbitrary system objective. Our work is the first to solve optimal utility design for arbitrary networks; our techniques generalize previous approaches which considered only the full-information setting. For supermodular objective functions, we prove that counterintuitively, a fully communication-denied utility design is optimal irrespective of the original information network. For submodular system objectives, an exhaustive numerical analysis suggests that the optimal utility design is robust to communication failures even for this case. When the system objective is weighted maximum coverage, the marginal contribution utility design provably optimizes the pPoA for a wide variety of information networks of interest.

This work presents a proof of concept for auditable LLM-assisted medical billing verification based on a decision-basis contract. The contract separates deterministic checks of versioned fee-catalog rules from LLM-based assessment of free-text documentation. The deterministic layer resolves the applicable catalog release and checks code availability, quantity limits, and exclusions. The semantic layer classifies each claimed item as supported, contradicted, or missing required information. Support and contradiction require a verbatim evidence span; unavailable rule context, unsuccessful assessment, or missing required evidence prevents support through fail-closed abstention. We evaluated four locally run open-weight models on a synthetic catalog and 36 curated cases under the contract, an ablation without explicit documentation requirements, and an end-to-end baseline. Outcome agreement varied across models and showed no consistent advantage over the baseline. Explicit documentation requirements improved identification of missing information for all four models. The evidence gate also exposed cases in which correct raw judgments lacked valid evidence and were converted to incomplete decision-basis entries. The results show how explicit decision records can make rule findings, documentation judgments, and abstention reasons inspectable. Evaluation on real catalogs, independently annotated documentation, and with human reviewers is required to assess practical value.

The rapid diffusion of generative artificial intelligence raises privacy, latency, and performance concerns that motivate a shift toward "local-first" AI, where inferences are performed on the user's device instead of on remote cloud servers. This paradigm also places a significant computational load on battery-powered smartphones, potentially shortening battery life and increasing the overall replacement rate of mobile devices. This paper presents a systematic study of the energy consumption, performance, and accuracy of on-device large language model (LLM) inference. We evaluate 18 models from different model families, sizes, and quantization levels, on two modern smartphones and on a server, using the respective state-of-the-art for such deployments. We measure the energy per generated token, inter-token latency, model accuracy, and battery-cycle consumption. Our results show that (i) on-device inference is on average 3 times less energy-efficient than batched server inference; (ii) the relationship between quantization bit-width and energy per token is non-monotonic, with energy sweet spots on both tested smartphones; (iii) eight out of 18 model configurations lie on the Pareto front of accuracy and energy-efficiency, allowing practitioners to build battery-aware model routers; and (iv) realistic modeling assumptions do not allow local inference to be less environmentally impacting per token than batched server inference, with 88--90% of that impact attributable to device embodied carbon rather than electricity consumption. These findings challenge the premise that local AI is more sustainable than cloud inference, and motivate the need for context-aware and life-cycle-aware model selection when deploying edge AI on battery-powered mobile platforms.

Recent work has identified incremental learning in shallow networks trained on single-index and multi-index models. However, existing analyses often rely on simplifying settings, such as small initialization, correlation loss, or layer-wise training. These choices reduce neuron interactions and leave some feature learning dynamics under standard initialization unexplored. We study training dynamics for polynomial-width two-layer networks learning orthogonal multi-index targets under standard initialization using polynomially many samples. We first prove that incremental learning still occurs: the loss decreases sequentially according to the Hermite expansion of the target, with lower-order components learned before higher-order components recover the individual target directions. In this standard initialization regime, training also shows a competitive reallocation of parameter mass: after the total mass fits the target mean and stabilizes, mass shifts into the target subspace and then concentrates on aligned neurons. Our theoretical analysis uses slightly modified gradient flow, while vanilla gradient descent empirically exhibits the same qualitative dynamics. Technically, we introduce a symmetry-based finite-width approximation via symmetrized networks, rather than comparing directly with an infinite-width limit. This yields better control of approximation errors and may be of independent interest.

We introduce MetroLLM-Bench, a 955-case benchmark for testing language models as the policy layer of a transit kiosk. It covers six real metro systems, ranging from 37 to 414 stations, and eleven categories that include routing, fare calculation, disruptions, accessibility, and adversarial input. In each case, the model must call structured tools and submit a machine-renderable terminal state containing an outcome, a per-ticket fare quote when applicable, and a kiosk action. Fourteen deterministic scoring components form Tier 1; eight semantic-quality components form Tier 2, six of which use a language-model judge. We report Tier 1 and the combined score of both tiers. A stratified 75/25 split reserves 717 cases for training-data generation and 238 for held-out evaluation. We evaluate twenty-six models from six vendors, of which twenty-three are ranked. On the held-out partition, a 4B Qwen 3.5 student trained through parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) exceeds both GPT-5.6 tiers on Tier 1 (91.3 against 90.6 and 90.0) and matches GPT-5.4 full at maximum reasoning effort (91.4), with a 2.6 GB Q4_K_M footprint. Larger 9B and 27B students provide no further Tier 1 improvement over the 4B student at this training scale. Across the four Qwen sizes, the PEFT gain over the corresponding base model decreases from +7.03 points at 2B (three training seeds) to -0.91 at 27B; every seed shows the same direction at every size. A deterministic rule-based baseline reaches 84.6 on Tier 1, with the remaining language-model advantage concentrated in policy adaptation, compound scenarios, accessibility, and temporal reasoning. Muse Glimmer 30B leads the composite ranking, and serving configuration alone moves the Qwen 3.5-to-3.8 comparison by 2.7 Tier 1 points. The benchmark, harness, reproduction guide, and fine-tuned students are released at https://github.com/continker/metrollm-bench.

Analysts in emerging equity markets keep answering the same questions. Did fundamentals match the market's response? How does the local currency co-move with returns? Which firms outperform sector and benchmark, and which disclosures coincide with abnormal trading? These answers come from ad-hoc spreadsheets that are hard to reproduce, audit, or trust. We present OntoKG-EQ, a knowledge-based system that makes such queries reproducible, evidence-linked, temporally explicit, valid, and inspectable. It couples a bounded, competency-question-governed core ontology with a provenance-aware knowledge graph in which every class, property, shape, and metric is justified by one of five frozen questions. The system materialises market data into the graph, computes the metrics, validates its structure against declarative shape constraints, answers each competency question with a graph query, derives typed findings, and generates an explanation tracing each result to its observations, evidence, sources, and provenance. We evaluate on curated datasets from three emerging markets (Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia). Once each market's data is mapped into the common schema, the ontology, shapes, queries, and rules are reused unchanged. A relational-database baseline shows the graph changes no analytics. Its value is governance, provenance, and self-explaining structure. Because answers are rendered deterministically from the validated graph, their consistency with it is guaranteed by construction. Used as a reference, the system measures how consistently eight open language models transcribe the same evidence (provenance coverage 0.00 to 1.00). A study with a 17-participant convenience panel finds the evidence bundle significantly increased perceived trust and completeness. Code and data are openly released.

In online A/B tests for real-time bidding (RTB), control and treatment models are typically trained on a shared serving log that includes data generated by the counterpart model. This shared-log training biases each model's training data through two channels: the counterpart model may have selected a different ad from the ad-candidate pool (ad-ranking disagreement) and may have bid a different price (bid-pricing disagreement), potentially distorting the A/B test outcome. Log-splitting eliminates the bias but sacrifices training data; log-sharing retains all data but leaves the bias unaddressed. We formalize the Bid-Aware Filter Family (BAFF), a class of (k,l)-parameterized hard filters that controls tolerance to each channel independently, providing a structured search space between these two extremes. We further propose a three-stage online measurement protocol that enables evaluating data-sharing strategies by their deviation from an interference-free reference model in production. In offline simulation, a (k,l) sweep surfaces operating points with smaller deviation from the interference-free reference model than both log-sharing and log-splitting. In a live RTB deployment on a demand-side platform (DSP), filter-based variants preserve the reference model's business metrics (e.g., CPC, CTR) more closely than both baselines. The best operating point is setting-dependent, underscoring the practical value of the search space itself.

Automated alpha factor discovery searches symbolic trading signals from price-volume panels and order-book data under a fixed evaluation budget. Existing single- and multi-agent program-search systems can overfit predictive proxies that fail after execution costs and repeatedly explore redundant factor families, limiting execution robustness and behavioral diversity. We introduce GoAnt, a quality-diversity multi-agent search framework that combines non-communicating Explorer, Exploiter and Connector workers with a shared adaptive Mental Map and a compact Queen dispatcher. The Mental Map organizes candidates by leakage-free execution profiles and retains one elite per niche, while the Queen reallocates the evaluation budget from explicit search-state summaries. We also define a map-independent effective-yield protocol that counts high-quality, mutually nonredundant factors directly from each method's evaluation records, giving archive-based and map-free systems the same ruler. On real A-share microstructure data spanning 2023--2026, GoAnt reaches quality-weighted yields of 41.8 and 47.6 in price-volume and order-book settings, improving the strongest baseline by 57% and 97% under matched budgets. Its locked populations retain 0.64 and 0.67 of in-sample quality out of sample, compared with 0.61 and 0.63 for a static map.

MASTER's inter-stock multi-head attention -- the module responsible for modeling cross-sectional stock relationships -- accounts for 42.5% of model parameters and 25% of predictive value. We systematically decompose this module and uncover a surprising structure: the learned attention is near-uniform (perplexity 278/300), yet forcing exact uniformity eliminates all cross-sectional discrimination. Spectral analysis resolves this paradox: the deviation from uniformity is low-rank (effective rank ~65, top-10 modes capture 96.5% of energy), explaining why sparse approximations consistently fail while Nystrom low-rank attention (m=32 landmarks) matches full O(N^2) attention at O(mN) cost -- certified equivalent via TOST at both N=300 (5 seeds, Rank IC p=0.003) and N=800 (10 seeds, Rank IC p=0.034). Additional findings include: (i) attention anti-correlates with return similarity (Spearman rho = -0.614; on the industry-labeled subset, -0.645 unconditionally and -0.627 after controlling for industry, beta, and volatility), suggesting complementarity-seeking rather than correlation mining; (ii) all graph-based alternatives degrade performance, with hard masking worse than complete module removal; and (iii) at N ~ 3,500 with adapted architectures, no cross-stock module (GCN, Nystrom, or MASTER-style pipeline) significantly outperforms a per-stock LSTM baseline (n=4 seeds), indicating that the benefits observed at smaller scales do not trivially transfer. These results establish that the inter-stock attention's value resides in a compressible, dynamic, near-global redistribution that rewards low-rank approximation but resists sparsification.

The rapid evolution of video generation has shifted the paradigm from pure text-driven to multi-conditional controllable generation, with reference images now widely adopted as conditional inputs to achieve superior spatiotemporal consistency. While these reference images serve as powerful visual anchors that significantly enhance controllability, their impact on safety remains largely unexplored. In this work, we reveal the visual anchoring effect: by enforcing consistency, the mechanism prevents the generated content from drifting away from the original harmful intent, thereby eliminating the model's natural safety escape route from harmful to benign content. Consequently, visual anchors inherently increase the safety risk---this is the price of consistency. Building on this insight, we propose Decoupling Intent via Visual Anchors (DIVA), a training-free multimodal jailbreak framework for video generation that exploits this vulnerability. DIVA decouples harmful intent into a static visual anchor image and a dynamic motion text prompt, and employs dual-criteria selection to balance attack stealthiness with semantic preservation. Extensive experiments across various leading commercial platforms and mainstream open-source video generation models demonstrate that DIVA achieves a substantially higher Attack Success Rate than existing text-only methods. To facilitate future research, we additionally contribute TI2VSafetyBench, the first safety benchmark for multi-conditional video generation.

Large language models (LLMs) are being deployed at scale in consequential real-world systems, from financial markets to content moderation to hiring. We show that improving individual model capability can degrade rather than improve system-level outcomes. We hypothesize that shared training and architectures can lead more capable LLMs to behave more similarly, creating correlated actions that do not diversify away. We develop a general framework showing how this correlation creates a non-diversifiable risk floor and test its predictions in financial markets using an agent-based simulation with LLM traders of varying general-purpose capability. We find that: (1) frontier LLMs exhibit significantly correlated behavior that increases with capability; (2) when their shared reasoning is accurate, increasing agent participation reduces market-level risk; and (3) when agents share a common misinformation environment, the same correlated behavior becomes a liability. Together, these results identify a capability paradox: improving individual models does not necessarily produce better system-level outcomes. Whether the same dynamics arise in other domains is an open empirical question.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly proposed for enterprise workflows, yet existing evaluations rarely test whether business-decision conclusions transfer across competitive market ecologies. We introduce ERPBench, an execution-instrumented benchmark for enterprise decision agents in a six-round Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) simulation with coupled pricing, production, procurement, inventory, finance, and shared-market competition. ERPBench evaluates the same 100 fixed problems in two matched competitive market ecologies: Solo, where each evaluated LLM agent competes against fixed rule-based opponents, and Arena, where six evaluated LLM agents compete in a shared market. Across six model families, this yields 1,200 model-level trajectories spanning 7,200 decision rounds. Under the observed service configuration, the leading model differs between ecologies: DeepSeek leads in Solo (252.29M mean valuation; mean rank 1.67), whereas Gemini leads in Arena (263.95M; 1.76). The two ecologies identify the same task-level winner on only 21 of 100 problems, and Gemini's bottom-rank rate falls from 22 % to 0 % in Arena. ERPBench supports paired evaluation of whether enterprise-agent rankings transfer across competitive market ecologies, supplemented by aggregate execution-intervention analysis. Code and benchmark resources are available in our https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/erp-bench.

Reputation is a fundamental mechanism through which markets sustain trust when service quality cannot be perfectly assessed ex ante, constituting a form of intertemporal economic capital by attracting future demand. Its effectiveness as a disciplinary mechanism depends not only on past interactions but also on the persistence of the identity to which reputation is attached. When identities can be abandoned and recreated cheaply, reputational capital may itself become an object of opportunistic exploitation. This paper develops a dynamic economic framework to study when reputation is sufficient to discipline autonomous agents. We model reputation as capital attracting future economic activity. At each point, an agent chooses between operating honestly, investing in quality to preserve future gains, or executing a one-shot deviation to extract its reputation's value and restart from a penalized identity. Our analysis relates the temptation to opportunistic behavior to identity-reset costs, reputation persistence, demand sensitivity, and enforcement design, deriving comparative statics on optimal quality provision. Autonomous AI-agent operating on the blockchain are a relevant application: infrastructures such as ERC-8004, ERC-8183, and x402 combine reputation, identity, and payments in permissionless markets. Nonetheless, our framework applies to any environment where reputation generates future business and identities are replaceable.

This paper compares rule-based and learning-based pricing mechanisms for peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity trading in residential photovoltaic communities. The rule-based benchmarks comprise bill-sharing as an ex post allocation mechanism, the mid-market rate, and supply-demand-ratio pricing. The reinforcement-learning (RL) formulation is implemented through a Deep Q-Network and evaluated under multiplier-based and learnable SDR-shaped pricing, with a fixed-parameter SDR variant as a non-learning control. Performance is assessed through community savings together with complementary financial and operational indicators. In the base PV-only configuration, the rule-based benchmarks outperform the best RL policy. With battery energy storage, evaluated for the RL policies only, community savings under the best RL policy increase from EUR 734.23 to EUR 978.52. Across the learning-based modes and in both configurations, SDR-shaped pricing outperforms the multiplier-based parameterization considered. The results indicate that rule-based pricing remains highly competitive wherever the two families are compared directly, and that storage substantially improves the learning-based outcomes under this accounting, while the distribution of benefits remains heterogeneous across households.

Price extraction from websites is a key task for market monitoring, price comparison, and business analytics in e-commerce. Existing approaches can be broadly divided into four groups, and understanding their trade-offs in accuracy and scalability is essential for selecting suitable extraction strategies. Classical methods rely on manually written wrappers and rule induction from labeled pages, offering high accuracy but adapting poorly to structural changes and requiring considerable maintenance effort. Browser-based methods, using tools such as Selenium and Puppeteer, handle dynamic JavaScript content but consume large computational resources and scale poorly. Browserless approaches retrieve HTML directly via HTTP requests, offering significant gains in speed and cost, but rely on rules calibrated for specific sites. Methods based on machine learning and large language models offer adaptability but require training data and substantial computation. Our main contribution is an adaptive browserless price extraction system that improves robustness to structural differences between websites. We implemented a baseline architecture combining HTML page fragmentation with syntactic, semantic, and frequency rules, and extended it in two ways: a Bayesian approach that dynamically updates rule weights, and a genetic algorithm that optimizes the system's global parameters. This hybrid scheme increased precision from 77.2% to 87.3% and reduced average per-page processing time by approximately 14% relative to the baseline, confirming it as a competitive alternative to manually tuned browserless solutions and to more resource-intensive browser- or LLM-based methods, offering high extraction accuracy at low computational cost.

Recent advances in LLM agents enable a new paradigm for asset pricing, which we call Agentic Empirical Asset Pricing (AEAP): systems that autonomously conduct the scientific discovery process itself. We define AEAP and identify its core building blocks. Existing evaluation practices backtest only the outputs (factors or trades), not the autonomous discovery system that produced them. We focus on factor discovery, contributing a reference architecture, a rigorous evaluation standard for discovered factors, and a method for out-of-sample backtesting the discovery system. As a concrete instance of that architecture, we evaluate SEADS against five re-implemented baselines on two US equity panels using this standard: no single metric ranks the systems consistently, motivating evaluation on multiple axes at once. A separate rolling re-execution then asks the complementary question of whether the discovery process itself, not one static output, is reliable. We also report negative findings and limitations that surface further evaluation pitfalls for future AEAP systems.

An LLM application often sells or internally allocates several service products: a small or premium model, a short or long token cap, and possibly multiple posted prices. The operational decision is not merely which model answers a prompt. A price changes purchase probability, a token cap changes both user value and the tail of resource consumption, and accepted requests compete for shared compute and premium-model capacity. Demand and output length are initially uncertain, while an offline model may provide useful but imperfect predictions. We formulate sequential pricing and admission with stochastic resource consumption. Each arriving request belongs to an observable segment. The platform chooses a product--price pair or makes no offer; purchase, revenue, and resource use are then random. An offline predictor supplies a uniform, validated error radius for every segment--product cell. We propose Prediction-Clipped UCB (PCUCB), which intersects the offline prediction interval with an online confidence interval, evaluates products using resource shadow prices, and reserves a sample-path envelope before commitment. The prior gives a fast start when accurate, while online learning protects the platform when predictions are coarse. The analysis is modular. On a simultaneous confidence event, regret against a buffered fluid benchmark is bounded by a pacing term plus the cumulative diameter of the intersected intervals. For $J$ segment-product cells and prediction radius $\varepsilon$, this yields $$\widetilde O\left( \sqrt{T}+(1+\barΛ) \min\{T\varepsilon,\sqrt{JT}\} \right),$$ where $\barΛ$ bounds operational shadow prices. Thus the algorithm smoothly interpolates between an almost full-information regime and learning from scratch. Hard feasibility holds on every sample path through reservation envelopes.

Fleets of LLM agents now externalize effects that cannot be fully undone: they move money, deploy code, delete data, and disclose information. Current controls check one effect at a time, so a fleet of individually authorized agents can overdraw its principal's risk under a shared trigger while every local gate stays correct. We propose the irreversibility budget, a cumulative account of residual value-at-risk that a trusted runtime maintains for each principal across agents, workflows, and tenants. Treating irreversibility as a first-class resource, the runtime charges each effect its residual loss below the agent and denies the marginal effect once the aggregate would overdraw the budget. Getting the price right is hard, because effects are heterogeneous, adversarially declared, and correlated. We perform a controlled study in which per-effect gates admit fleet-level overdraws of up to 48 times the tenant's risk limit while the budget holds every correctly charged run within that limit. Conservative, dependency-aware pricing remains the central open problem for a deployable design.

In online retailing, when a product sells out, a retailer often sees only the units sold, not how many customers would have bought it had inventory been available. However, the inventory level determines how much demand is revealed, and this information can influence subsequent decisions and future profits. We study an online selling problem in which, in each round, the seller observes a market context and then makes pricing and stocking decisions based on censored sales data from previous rounds. The challenge is to learn a context-dependent pricing and stocking policy without assuming a particular formula for demand or observing realized profit. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a Mean-Calibrated Kernel UCB (MCK-UCB) algorithm that turns each incomplete sales record into a reliable guide for both inventory and price decisions, using data from past rounds with similar market conditions. This design allows us to learn while serving customers, without a separate exploration phase or the need to recover all demand hidden by stockouts. We prove the minimax optimality of the proposed algorithm, with strictly faster rates when expected profit varies more smoothly with price. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

For provenance research and art market studies, auction catalogs are an essential resource to trace specific objects over time and space. While historical auction catalogs follow established domain conventions, their internal formatting remains highly variable, and their large-scale analysis is currently restricted by the lack of machine-readable representations of the auction lots. We propose a pipeline to automatically extract structured lot-level metadata from German Sales, a large database of historical auction and sales catalogs from the 19th and 20th centuries. Using a manually annotated test set of representative catalog pages, we evaluate Vision-Language Models (VLMs) under varying prompt strategies and constrained decoding frameworks. To reflect the practical constraints faced by cultural heritage institutions, including budget, compute resources, and data privacy requirements, we benchmark the methods across different deployment modes ranging from commercial providers to locally hosted, quantized models. We find that commercial endpoints establish the performance ceiling, while institutional gateways offer a viable, privacy-preserving alternative. Local deployments remain feasible, but strictly require enforcing the output structure during generation to guarantee a valid JSON format. While varying degrees of human-in-the-loop correction are still necessary, this work demonstrates that a VLM-based pipeline can successfully unlock historical auction catalogs for large-scale automated analysis.

Posted prices for AI inference have fallen steadily since 2024, yet the measured speed of that fall depends almost entirely on the method of measurement. This paper constructs quality-adjusted price indices for the AI inference market from public data. The panel assembles 21,024 posted-price observations across 3,208 models and 86 providers and joins them to 4,605 benchmark scores through a latent quality index estimated from benchmark response patterns, so the quality ladder of the hedonic tradition is built here from evaluations in place of product characteristics. Measured by the matched-model methods that statistical agencies apply to software, inference prices fell at 0.10 log points a year. The quality-adjusted index fell at 0.73, so 87% of the decline is invisible to current methods, with direct consequences for measured competition, concentration and productivity in this market. Counted per completed task, moreover, the buyer's price stopped falling. Reasoning models raised token consumption faster than token prices fell, and the seller's and buyer's prices accordingly diverged. A pre-registered validity audit disciplines the quality measure and yields the sharpest result. Excluding contamination-flagged benchmarks leaves model rankings intact at 0.998 yet moves the index by 0.49 log points a year, so the leaderboard-stability arguments standard in AI evaluation offer no defence of economic statistics built on benchmarks. Prices, quality and the audit are fully reproducible from public sources at zero cost.

Short observational pricing panels often contain many data points but very few actual price changes. This paper shows that this sparsity creates a hidden source of error that standard statistical methods miss. When estimating price effects, most of the uncertainty does not come from sample size within a panel, but from the specific history of price movements observed. Standard confidence intervals fail because they only measure variation within the panel, ignoring this broader design-level error. Using simulations, we find that this cross-design variation accounts for most of the estimation error, causing standard methods to significantly understate uncertainty. First, we show that cross-design error decreases predictably as the total volume of price variation increases. Second, adding more data from regions that share the same price trends does not fix the issue; true precision improves only when combining data across units with independent price trajectories. Third, applying a simple variance-component adjustment across independently priced units restores accurate statistical coverage. We confirm these findings in real-world store scanner data, showing that products and pricing zones behave as if they have far fewer independent price movements than their raw counts suggest. Ultimately, reliable inference in passive pricing data requires genuine, independent variation, which can be achieved through controlled regional price testing.

Consider a firm that surveys its competition for a particular agentic task and seeks to offer superior accuracy at every price point. A firm that Pareto-dominated its competitors would leave no rational customer a reason to buy elsewhere. This paper shows a path to this kind of capability by evolving multi-LLM Python agents from training pools of at most 100 examples. Given a priced menu of nine LLM endpoints; brief documentation of the task, objective, and API; a simple seed agent; and an operator-chosen per-problem cost target--usually set at an incumbent's own price--RoboPhD, an evolutionary meta-agent, evolves complete agent programs that attack the public frontiers of two semantically dissimilar tasks point by point: DS-1000 (execution-checked code generation) and PaperFindingBench (LLM-judged scientific document retrieval). On public leaderboards for each task, the evolved agents hold every Pareto-frontier slot but one, including Pareto domination of both the top-scoring and the lowest-cost competing points.

Dexterous manipulation promises substantially richer robot interaction with the physical world, but learning these behaviours remains constrained by the difficulty of collecting consistent, complete-task demonstrations. Unlike parallel-jaw manipulation, dexterous tasks require the operator to coordinate arm motion with precise, contact-rich finger behaviour throughout the task. We introduce NestDex, a nested policy-learning framework that reduces this burden by using learned hand skills to assist demonstration collection. The operator controls the arm and regulates the active hand skill through a single-DoF clutch, rather than directly specifying the full finger trajectory. The inner hand policy adapts its motion from the latest proprioceptive history, while a vision-language selector activates the appropriate skill for each task stage. The resulting demonstrations train a separate outer visuomotor policy that controls both the arm and hand without the inner policies at deployment. A hand-action variational autoencoder provides compact hand-action targets while retaining arm commands in joint space. Across real-world dexterous manipulation experiments, NestDex improves demonstration reliability and efficiency, and the resulting empirical evaluations support effective autonomous policy learning. Video Demo are available at project website https://aus.bot/research/nestdex.

We study a large language model (LLM) service in which a provider chooses a per-token price and a default reasoning-token allocation, while a user may accept the default, customize the allocation, or exit. Larger allocations can improve accuracy but increase token cost and latency. We model this interaction as a Stackelberg game and derive the user's unique optimal customized allocation in closed form. For any price, the acceptable defaults form either an empty set or a compact interval. We characterize the provider's optimal default through a three-regime rule, reduce equilibrium computation to a one-dimensional price optimization, and prove the existence of the equilibrium. We further show that defaults affect the implemented reasoning allocation only when users value the convenience of avoiding customization; otherwise, every service-providing outcome implements the user's optimal customized allocation. Experiments with two compact open-weight reasoning models on five mathematics and science benchmarks support the accuracy-token model and show how model and task characteristics determine equilibrium prices, defaults, and reasoning allocations.

What a finite learning device has recorded and what will hold value for it on future tasks are not the same quantity. We develop a typed accounting for finite-state learning devices that separates four components: a training-side fit functional $Φ_{\mathrm{fit}}$, the record-correlation stock $J_{D}=I(M;D)$, an update-side search ledger $σ_{M}$, and an operational capital value $V(M;T,b)$. This value is the work gap between an informed protocol class and a blind class obtained by deleting the memory-read port and re-optimizing from scratch. (I) Separation: for every $n$, there is a device family on which record correlation and world correlation grow by $n\ln 2$ while the capital gain is exactly zero. In the $\mathrm{flat}^{*}$ regime, data-free updates never increase $V$. (II) Capitalization ledger: an exact $\mathrm{flat}^{*}$ extraction identity and a universal ledger identity give, for (F5$'$)-stable $M$-local updates under a no-discarded-record-correlation condition (f), the bound $η_{\mathrm{cap}}\le 1$ for the capitalization efficiency $η_{\mathrm{cap}}=ΔV/(k T\,σ_{M})$, together with necessary and sufficient conditions for equality. (III) Value retention: for the retention gap $L_{\mathrm{gen}}$ and retention ratio $ρ_{\mathrm{gen}}$ (the former carries no sign constraint; the latter is defined for positive training-side value and is not confined to $[0,1]$) we give a two-layer alignment domain: an exact exchange rate between value and the side-information-adjusted record fit $I(M';D\mid Y)$ without any record-side-information independence assumption, and a raw record-stock exchange rate under a joint side-information neutrality condition $(M,D)\perp Y$, whose boundary is marked by an explicit one-time-pad witness. These are statements about finite-device value retention under task-distribution shift, not a theory of statistical generalization.

Routing each query to a cost-effective large language model (LLM) is critical for balancing quality and cost, yet most routers rely on a centralized task center to predict model performance, creating an information-risk mismatch and a scalability bottleneck as the model pool grows. We propose a market-based routing paradigm that shifts ex-ante prediction to LLM providers via a reverse auction, where providers bid with self-predicted success probabilities and execution costs. To account for inherently noisy provider predictions and center evaluations, we introduce the \textit{\textbf{E}rror-\textbf{A}ware \textbf{R}everse \textbf{A}uction \textbf{M}echanism} (EA-RAM), which explicitly models this inherent Dual Error. We prove that EA-RAM is Bayesian incentive compatible and individually rational under the Dual Error, establish sufficient conditions for center rationality, and derive an explicit welfare-loss bound. We further identify robustness effects: opposite-signed errors can cancel, vanishing-tail link functions (e.g., logistic) stabilize clear-cut cases via saturation, and extra noise smooths belief maps, reducing the gains from marginal manipulation. Experiments on simulations and real-world benchmarks show that EA-RAM is robust to the Dual Error and achieves a better cost--performance Pareto frontier than centralized baselines, with additional gains when providers contribute local information, validating its practical effectiveness.

Maintaining price consistency and executing an Every Day Low Price strategy is critical for global retailers. However, with catalogs spanning millions of active items, manual governance of price relationships is infeasible. Inconsistent pricing across item variants distorts customer value perception and cannibalizes sales. To address this, we present a scalable, context-aware Multi-Agent Framework designed to automate the construction of "Lines and Ladders" pricing taxonomies. Our framework employs specialized LLM agents to construct these coherent pricing structures by identifying key attributes, extracting multi-modal values, and applying hierarchical grouping logic. Evaluated on real-world enterprise data and deployed in production, our 3-Agent system achieves an F1-score of 0.83 for Lines, outperforming single-agent baselines by mitigating cognitive overload. The system achieves >90% precision and >75% recall in Food & Consumables, and 80.2% assignment accuracy in the unstructured General Merchandise catalog.

Public procurement involves the allocation of substantial financial resources; therefore, continuous oversight through audits, controls, and monitoring mechanisms is essential. However, stakeholder comments and publicly available government data are often underutilized, despite their potential to reveal procedural irregularities. To address this gap, this paper analyzes metadata from Ecuador's Sistema Oficial de Contratación Pública (SOCE, Official Public Procurement System), with particular emphasis on participant comments generated during the pre-contractual phase. We propose a hybrid modeling framework that integrates unsupervised clustering and supervised classification within a natural language processing (NLP) pipeline to uncover latent patterns and detect potentially irregular procurement processes. Semantic embeddings are generated using Word2Vec, LLaMA, and RoBERTa, followed by Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for unsupervised clustering. A supervised classification stage is then applied to identify accusatory or whistleblowing-style comments. Experimental results show that the combination of domain-trained Word2Vec embeddings, GMM-based clustering, and a Random Forest classifier achieves high precision and recall, even under severe class imbalance. These findings demonstrate that lightweight, domain-adapted NLP architectures can effectively support risk identification and enhance transparency in public procurement systems without requiring large-scale computational infrastructure.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong potential for financial analysis and trading, but direct trading remains challenging because the predictive capabilities required can vary across assets, decision fields, and market conditions. Existing LLM-based trading systems either coordinate human-defined external experts or adopt conventional internal Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) routers that do not directly evaluate how individual experts contribute to trading decisions. Moreover, these routers receive no direct signal indicating when an inactive expert has become more suitable as market conditions change. We find that native router scores poorly reflect how much individual experts improve trading decisions, frequently leaving better alternatives unselected. We further reveal that token-specific expert usefulness exhibits a compact low-dimensional structure. Based on these findings, we propose TradingMoE, a trading-oriented sparse MoE that augments a frozen dense LLM with lightweight residual experts. We introduce a Query-Key router that represents the expertise required by each token under the current market context as a low-dimensional query and matches it with learnable expert keys. We further propose a sparse expert selection update mechanism that samples a few inactive experts during training and estimates whether they should replace the weakest expert in the current Top-k route. This mechanism enables the router to update expert selection as market conditions change while preserving sparse computation. Experiments against 22 baselines on stock and cryptocurrency markets show that TradingMoE improves cumulative return over the best-performing baselines by 30.89% and 30.7%, respectively. Rolling paper-trading experiments further demonstrate that its advantage persists under forward-only deployment.

We study new algorithms for Contextual Bandits with Knapsack. In these problems, there are finitely many types of customers, products, and resources. Each product is made from a fixed combination of resources, and resources have finite capacity. A decision maker must assign each arriving customer one out of a set of multiple possible products. Every assignment of a customer to a product will generate a random reward, which equals an unknown linear function of customer and product features, plus a noise term. The objective is to jointly learn the mean reward function, and to make online assignments to minimize the expected revenue loss relative to an optimal policy that knows the reward function. We propose a natural and simple extension of the Upper-Confidence-Bound (UCB) family of algorithms and apply re-optimization techniques. We show that by taking advantage of re-optimization, our algorithm achieves an average regret of $O(\frac{(\ln T)^3}{T})$ where $T$ is the horizon length. Our bound significantly reduces the $O(\frac{1}{\sqrt{T}})$ bound in the literature for closely related dynamic-pricing problems that are based on re-optimization.

A new class of software systems is transforming investment analysis. Large language model agents assembled into collaborative team structures including analysts, researchers, and risk managers are increasingly deployed across financial markets. Yet current multi-agent frameworks share a critical limitation: they rely on the foundational assumption that companies can be valued through traditional cash flows. This paradigm fails in clinical-stage biotechnology, where enterprise value depends entirely on binary scientific and regulatory milestones. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces a specialized multi-agent framework. Its valuation layer translates qualitative scientific judgment into defensible valuations for pre-revenue assets; its cross-market coordination layer reconciles pricing across international venues simultaneously; and its conflict-fusion mechanism systematically arbitrates between bullish scientific conviction and cautious regulatory constraints in a domain-specific manner. Crucially, the architecture is not a speculative design: it encodes a method the author first executed by hand as sole portfolio manager of China's first dedicated cross-border biotechnology fund, a human practice that returned 127.17% against a 50.67% benchmark within sixteen months. That record is evidence for the underlying method rather than for any AI system; no implementation is evaluated here. This paper presents the framework at the architectural level, establishing foundational design principles for extending agentic investment systems into complex, event-driven asset classes they currently serve poorly.

Inspired by possible future markets of autonomous routing and driving (ARAD), we introduce competitive mediator games and their equilibria which generalize the (coarse) correlated equilibria, which have become a popular research area recently as they not only can be more socially efficient than Nash equilibria but also are limits of algorithmic no-regret multi-agent learning dynamics. We discuss the basic properties of competitive mediator games and prove that in the generic setting of anonymous congestion(routing) games with market-share maximizing mediators all competitive mediator equilibria are monopolies whenever one of the mediators is weakly preferred to other mediators by all users. We apply and interpret these results in the context of new markets of competing ARAD service providers. We also provide a comprehensive overview of these markets and discuss the future mechanism design thereof.

Ball possession is the most-cited and most-misleading number in football: 60% recycled in one's own half is not 60% spent pinning the opponent back. Existing event-based possession-value frameworks (expected threat, VAEP, on-ball value) price on-ball actions but ignore the off-ball question a sterile possession poses: did holding the ball create space, or was the circulation dead? We answer this in two layers. First, an event-side junk-possession index prices each possession sequence by its peak threat gain under an expected-threat grid and -- after reconstructing the live scoreline to exclude lead-protecting circulation -- flags low-threat sequences in tied-or-losing states. On the 2026 FIFA World Cup (103 matches, 206 team-matches) the flag correlates negatively with points (r=-0.37) and xG difference (r=-0.51, partly index-coupled). It is not a repackaging of on-ball value: with team offensive VAEP and field tilt held fixed, the junk flag stays strongly negatively associated with points (p<0.0001, also match-clustered) while VAEP is not significant -- in this same-match (descriptive) regression it adds information beyond this on-ball action-value model. Second, for a flagged window we resolve whether it was spatially dead or space-creating by projecting broadcast video to pitch coordinates and measuring a Space-Creation Index (SCI): a net pitch-control change capturing whether the possession seized space or pushed the opponent's block back. Across 31 of 35 flagged windows from nine World Cup matches (a purposive sample), 74% are spatially non-space-creating, 19% weak progression, and 6% space-creating windows the event flag alone would score as failure -- including a side with 73% of the ball that exited on penalties (two non-creating windows). The two layers separate space-creating-but-unconverted from sterile possession, a distinction event-only on-ball value cannot make.

A bidder can quietly buy a stake in a company before making an offer for it. That stake, a toehold, is supposed to pay for itself twice: it makes the bidder willing to bid harder, and it frightens rivals into staying out of the fight. The first effect is arithmetic. The second is what would justify the cost and exposure of taking one at all. Yet toeholds are rare in practice, a standing puzzle. We ask whether that second effect is there once the contest is modelled as several rounds of escalating offers rather than the single exchange classical models assume. We turn it into a game a computer can solve, and certify the answers to an accuracy a referee can check. Three findings. The auction fixes what the toehold-holder earns but not how it bids: the same contest supports a bidder who opens aggressively against a rival who folds, and one who opens cheaply against a rival who does not, with the same profit either way. Aggressive preemptive bidding still appears when the toehold is removed entirely, so it comes from bidding in public and in turns, not from owning the stake. And the tidy "bigger toehold, more deterrence" relationship holds only in a contest cut short after one round; give it a real second round and it stops responding. So the two reasons to buy a toehold do not fare alike. The profit reason holds up; the deterrence reason does not, which suggests why toeholds may be rarer than theory predicts, alongside the procedural costs of disclosure and price impact that this model omits. A warning follows for anyone computing economics from a game solver: solve this auction once and it returns a confident figure for what a preemptive bid is worth; solve it again from a different start and it returns a different one, equally converged. We also report which solvers cope with contests of this shape, including versions too large to enumerate. Code is released.

Autonomous agents increasingly rely on external data to complete downstream tasks such as model training and decision support. However, existing data discovery systems remain largely retrieval-oriented: they surface candidate datasets from heterogeneous sources, but provide limited support for estimating task-specific utility, selecting cost-effective datasets under budget constraints, or incorporating trustworthy feedback from prior usage. This paper presents Guixu, a valuation-driven data discovery system for autonomous agents. Guixu employs a three-phase valuation pipeline with proxy-label propagation and multi-round knapsack optimization for task-aware data valuation. Guixu integrates agentic payment protocol to enable budget-constrained data procurement workflows. Guixu leverages on-chain data market and attestation signals for verifiable data discovery. Our demonstration highlights how Guixu enables an agent to move beyond keyword-based dataset retrieval toward task- and budget-aware, trustworthy data discovery and procurement. Attendees can interactively explore the full workflow, from NL task specification and multi-source search to data valuation and verifiable transaction feedback.

A common assumption when designing an agent in a multi-agent system is that the other agents behave adversarially. This allows a designer to obtain the strongest guarantees when they have no control over nor knowledge about the other agents' behavior. However, when all agents are designed under this adversarial assumption, their actual interaction is not adversarial (e.g., when all players play defensively, no player actually attacks). In such settings, we would like to know what behavior arises in the multi-agent system. However, analyzing the interaction among agents is notoriously challenging, both mathematically and algorithmically. In this paper, we provide such an analysis, focusing on bidding games, played by two agents on a graph as follows. A token is placed on a vertex, and in each turn an auction (bidding) determines which agent moves the token, thus generating an infinite path that determines the agents' utilities. We consider mean-payoff objectives; each vertex is associated with a reward for each player, and the utility in an infinite play is the limit average of the rewards. We analyze the play that is generated when each agent follows a strategy that optimizes against an adversary, and consider the two known explicit constructions of optimal strategies. The technical challenge stems from the infinitely-many configurations of a bidding game and their complicated dynamics. We show that, under some restrictions, the generated play is ultimately periodic, and develop algorithms to compute the players' utilities in it.

Current portfolio construction methods are either agnostic to the effects of idiosyncratic shocks (standard factor models) or to the latent data structure driving systematic returns (recent graph-based approaches). This presents an opportunity to combine the complementary market aspects captured by the factor and graph domains, allowing asset allocations to operate directly on the underlying market structure, rather than on its observed co-movement or its finite-sample artefacts. In this work, we introduce the Mutually-INformed Graph-Locality and Exposures framework (MINGLE), which mutually regularises the factor and graph domains by redefining graph locality through systematic factor exposure profiles, rather than via observed co-movements. This is formalised through a unified Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) framework that jointly learns a latent factor representation and its induced graph topology directly from market returns. The resulting exposure-similarity graph aligns more closely with established economic sectors than conventional correlation-based graphs. Portfolios constructed from this representation are shown to consistently outperform their correlation-based counterparts across a range of volatility regimes and transaction cost levels. For rigour, paired statistical testing confirms that these gains stem from the reconciliation of the graph and factor domains.

Intraday market manipulation is hard to detect because its footprint is brief, buried in millions of quotes, and statistically similar to ordinary volatility. Detectors reach high recall only by flagging so many other days that measured precision collapses, producing alerts no regulator can act on. We show that this manipulation leaves a distinctive dynamic signature: a pump-and-crash pattern visible in the velocity of market state, rather than its level. We build a minute-level detection pipeline, strictly partitioned in time, based on smoothed state velocity: option-Delta velocity for index options and price velocity for equities. We explain every alert with SHAP attribution. We hold the test period strictly out-of-sample and fix all thresholds before evaluation. On the locked Indian BANKNIFTY index-options test, the plain autoencoder recovers 10 of 10 regulator-identified manipulation days. Conditioning detection on market regimes inferred by a hidden Markov model yields an instructive negative result. The regimes are descriptively distinct, but using them trades recall for precision. Under the closed-world assumption that unlabeled days are normal, precision remains near 25%. The same dynamic appears in thinly traded U.S. equities (SEC v. Patel). The shape of the signature survives the transfer; its velocity magnitude does not. A pump-reversal shape score ranks the complaint's alleged manipulation days with AUC 0.91 (ARQQ) and 0.81 (ACY). On the ARQQ worked example, the score peaks inside the complaint's documented minute window. Finally, exact SHAP attribution over every alert shows that unconfirmed alerts share the regulator-identified days' attribution profile (cosine similarity 0.99). The precision ceiling is consistent with incomplete enforcement labels rather than detector failure. What transfers across markets and instrument types is the dynamic signature itself.

Many social services assign scarce resources, such as housing assistance or hospital interventions, to people who arrive one at a time: each arrival must receive a decision immediately, and the long-run usage of every resource must stay within its capacity. We study how to learn such an assignment policy from logged observational data. The standard pipeline is decision-blind: fit one outcome model per arm by regression, price each capacitated resource from the fitted models, and assign each arrival the arm whose predicted outcome minus price is largest. We instead train the outcome models end-to-end, differentiating an off-policy estimate of the deployed policy's value through the dual prices themselves. We study two formulations: an exact nonconvex one, and a convex relaxation whose optimum always satisfies the capacity constraints in expectation and which is suboptimal by at most a term linear in the smoothing temperature and logarithmic in the number of arms. Every method is evaluated in a queueing simulation with resources replenished at their capacity rates. Across six datasets, the two end-to-end variants take the top slots on a deployment-adjusted value index at every delay cost, including zero; when capacities are binding, decision-blind baselines frequently violate them and incur much longer queueing delays. On the largest dataset, a hospital cohort of seventy thousand patients, end-to-end training also achieves significantly higher policy value, a margin that survives a capacity-matched neural baseline. Flexible decision-blind regression remains the stronger pure predictor where ground truth is measurable; end-to-end training is best suited to settings where resources are genuinely scarce and feasibility matters.

On two-sided content platforms, symmetric two-sided isolation (assigning matched fractions of creators and viewers to isolated treatment and control submarkets) is widely used for creator-side and cold-start experiments because it removes cross-arm marketplace interference. Isolation, however, thins each viewer's candidate catalog, and intuition suggests the resulting engagement cost should fade as the platform grows: a small fraction of a vast catalog is still vast. We show that, in an order-statistics model of engagement, whether this intuition holds depends on the upper tail of match quality. Extreme-value theory yields tail-class loss laws with a sharp dichotomy: for light or bounded tails the loss vanishes as the candidate pool grows, whereas under heavy tails it converges to a size-independent constant, so expanding the candidate pool, even by orders of magnitude, does not asymptotically eliminate the cost. Evidence from two production experiments on a platform with millions of active creators is consistent with this picture: a pure A/A traffic sweep reveals a measurable, depth-graded engagement cost; a one-sided catalog ablation independently shows that per-viewer thinning contributes to the loss; and a tail index calibrated on the small exploration pool predicts an effect consistent with the one observed in the far larger full-catalog ablation. Isolation thus carries a price that experimenters should budget for, like any other cost. We give practitioners a preflight procedure that estimates it before launch, sizes traffic accordingly, and recommends a fallback design when the predicted cost exceeds a chosen tolerance.

Real-time bidding (RTB) ad exchanges typically forward nearly all incoming requests to demand-side platforms (DSPs), even though only a small fraction receive bids. This over-distribution weakens auction outcomes: DSPs throttle participation under compute and budget constraints, reducing the effective use of limited bidding capacity. We present a competition-aware request dispatch framework that uses distributional bid prediction and probabilistic forwarding to decide whether each request should be sent to each DSP. The system adapts per-DSP thresholds over time through lightweight policy optimization to track non-stationary market conditions. We evaluate the framework through four sequential online experiments on a production platform serving over 20 billion daily requests. A full multi-DSP deployment reduces DSP request volume under the policy by 34.2% while increasing net revenue by 4.6% (p<0.001) in a recent 14-day window after an initial DSP adaptation period. Further analysis highlights strong heterogeneity across traffic segments and reveals that aggregate metrics can be misleading. Segment-level and per-DSP analyses suggest that the policy surfaces comparative advantages among DSPs, improving monetized outcomes without increasing overall request volume.

We study contextual dynamic pricing with arbitrary covariate sequences and bounded, possibly nonbinary purchase quantities. Demand follows a semiparametric surplus-index model with an unknown linear valuation parameter and an unknown Hölder-smooth response. We impose neither concavity nor strong unimodality on revenue and allow nonunique optimal prices. We develop a pilot-corrected layered decision-partitioning policy that combines directional pilot estimation, local polynomial learning, predictable data assignment, and global action elimination. Pilot correction removes the first-order effect of valuation-parameter error, while permanent labels enable concentration under adaptive sampling. The policy attains the minimax smoothness-dependent horizon rate up to logarithmic factors; a matching lower bound already holds for a constant-context binary-demand subclass.

Explainable aesthetic image cropping requires not only localizing a visually pleasing crop but also explaining why it is preferred. Existing crop-and-explain methods largely treat explanation as post-hoc text generation and overlook composition, a key aesthetic factor that links crop decisions with interpretable reasoning. In this paper, we reformulate explainable aesthetic image cropping as a structured crop-composition-explanation problem. To support this setting, we introduce COMEX, a new benchmark built through image expansion and an IO-reversal pipeline. COMEX contains 33,161 quadruples, each consisting of an expanded image, a crop box, a composition category, and a composition-grounded explanation, enabling joint learning of crop localization, composition understanding, and explanation generation. We further propose a two-stage SFT+GRPO framework, where supervised fine-tuning establishes the structured output protocol and basic cropping ability, and GRPO further improves crop quality, composition prediction, and explanation faithfulness. We benchmark 15 large vision-language models and existing cropping methods on COMEX, establishing a comprehensive testbed for composition-grounded explainable aesthetic cropping. Experiments on both COMEX and prior benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness and transferability of our framework, with strong performance across evaluation metrics.

AI agents are moving from advisory interfaces into systems that execute consequential operations: issuing refunds, reserving scarce inventory, provisioning cloud resources, and initiating financial transfers. These workflows require governance over effects, not only over model outputs. Existing safeguards often decide whether an action is allowed from the information available when the action is requested. For stateful policies, that request-time view may be incomplete: budgets, inventory, approval status, and risk signals can change before the effect occurs, making an earlier authorization or approval stale. This paper studies stateful governance for concurrent agentic systems. We identify stale authorization as the core failure mode and define policy-state serializability, a correctness condition requiring committed effects to be explainable as authorized against the policy state immediately before they occur. We present MasuGate, a runtime architecture that keeps policies as reviewable programs while coordinating the state and effects needed to preserve their decisions. In experiments with a PostgreSQL-backed prototype of MasuGate, the system prevents stale authorizations missed by baselines that pass policy state as ordinary request context, preserves delayed approvals while unrelated work proceeds, keeps policy evolution mostly in policy text rather than trusted provider code, and avoids policy violations in a scripted, LLM-free procurement workflow where agent-governance baselines produce stale authorizations over shared budgets and inventory. More broadly, MasuGate suggests a path for integrating stateful governance boundaries into agent frameworks and provider-backed domains where agents act on shared resources.

Learning to adapt strategies through interaction is a key step toward more general and autonomous LLM agents. Existing approaches typically achieve behavioral adaptation by revising skill libraries. However, in multi-agent environments, opponents may simultaneously update their strategies, causing the environment itself to evolve continuously. Applying skill-revision methods designed for static environments in such settings therefore amounts to updating against an obsolete reference. To address this challenge, we introduce OASE (Opponent-Aware Selective Evolution), which identifies and adopts genuinely beneficial skill revisions in dynamic multi-agent environments. Specifically, OASE conducts paired comparisons between a candidate skill and the incumbent under identical conditions anchored by historical snapshots of opponent strategies, and adopts the candidate only when its estimated payoff gain exceeds an acceptance threshold. We evaluate OASE in two decision-making scenarios: first-price auctions and private-cost Cournot competition. Experimental results show that, compared with a Reflexion-style baseline, OASE achieves a lower final equilibrium distance in both environments while accepting substantially fewer skill revisions, thereby suppressing strategy changes that lack sufficient payoff support. OASE therefore replaces blind updating with evidence-anchored selection, allowing agents to adapt stably and efficiently even as opponents continuously evolve.

LLM-native advertising embeds sponsored content directly into model-generated responses, shifting the unit of sale from a fixed slot to a moment within an evolving conversation. Existing LLM ad-auction mechanisms primarily operate within a single response, settling the winner but not the timing. The extension is nontrivial: with one native insertion opportunity per session, the stopping time depends on bids, coupling timing with allocation, so static truthfulness arguments no longer apply. We propose the LLM-based Optimal Stopping Dynamic Auction (LLM-OSDA), a dynamic cost-per-click auction that integrates Bellman optimal stopping, winner allocation, and envelope pricing. A bid-independent LLM layer estimates contextual click quality and seamlessly renders the winning ad, while bids enter only the committed auction mechanism. Under an exact Bellman oracle, the expected discounted-click allocation is monotone in each advertiser's bid, and the corresponding envelope payment makes truthful bidding weakly dominant in expectation. For practical deployment, a learned StopNet approximates the Bellman action values. We show that its decisions differ from the optimal policy only near the stopping boundary and bound the resulting incentive loss in terms of its approximation error. Experiments on a simulated conversational advertising corpus show that LLM-OSDA improves net revenue by 11 percent over the strongest fixed-timing baseline while maintaining comparable user retention. Code is at https://github.com/2025Fang2025/llm-osda.

Dynamic matching markets require decisions about whom to match and when: matching now yields value but removes participants who may create better future opportunities. We develop a value-based reinforcement-learning framework for this problem on finite, evolving weighted graphs. We study an infinite-horizon continuous-time model with stochastic arrivals, node-type transitions, edge realizations, and exogenous exits. We prove an event-time reduction: without loss of optimality, the planner acts immediately after each exogenous event and then waits for the next one. We further show that the optimal edge-wise $Q$-function is characterized by a single continuation-value function on post-decision residual graphs, reducing the learned object from state-action values to graph values. Exact action selection still requires combinatorial matching optimization; we approximate the value with a graph neural network, train it by temporal-difference learning, and use it in a forward-greedy matching heuristic. In a binary-type benchmark, the learned policy substantially outperforms immediate and threshold-greedy rules by preserving common nodes for rare arrivals of valuable matches while forming lower-value matches only in thick pools. In a kidney paired donation benchmark, it performs similarly to immediate greedy when exits are unpredictable, recovers the logic of patient matching when warnings are reliable, and outperforms the better of Immediate Greedy and Patient Greedy across intermediate warning probabilities. These results show that residual-graph value learning yields state-dependent dynamic matching policies that adapt to realized connectivity and exit information.

Agentic commerce is moving from concept to deployed infrastructure: payment networks, retailers, and AI platforms are setting the stage for agents to transact on behalf of merchants and consumers. Yet whether the LLMs behind these agents can price competently in real markets, where customer preferences are hidden, competitors adapt in real time, and demand can shift without warning, has not been systematically tested. We introduce Bazaar, a dynamic sealed-bid benchmark for multi-attribute auction under these conditions. Despite its dynamics, the benchmark is grounded in closed-form customer utilities, enabling exact evaluation. Across 11 frontier LLMs from four providers, the leading agents on customer acquisition (e.g. Gemini 3.1 Pro) are often not the leading agents on profit (e.g. Opus 4.6). The ranking shifts again under demand shocks: agents that learned fastest pre-shock are typically the slowest to revise their beliefs afterwards, while Gemini 3.1 Pro recovers fastest despite not leading on profit. However, even the strongest agent captures less than a third of hindsight-optimal profit, suggesting current LLMs are progressing in agentic commerce but leave substantial headroom.

User foundation models have demonstrated strong results in e-commerce and social recommendation, but most industrial deployments assume environments where user identity is stable and persistent. Open-web real-time bidding (RTB) operates on a structurally different data distribution: user identity is fragmented and non-persistent across browsing sessions, and the availability of browsing history depends on user privacy choices. Consequently, a significant portion of traffic carries no historical data, and available records often consist of relatively short, disjointed sessions. As a result, historical signals in this domain are typically represented as aggregated counters and recency buckets, leaving the sequential structure unexploited. To address this limitation, we present a user foundation model that applies self-supervised learning on user browsing histories and show that the learned representation improves multiple downstream production tasks, demonstrating the viability of this approach on the open web. We pre-train a Transformer encoder with masked language modeling and a sequence-level contrastive objective, then fine-tune it on the click prediction task. We optimize the encoder's pre-training pipeline with an LLM-in-the-loop search over a curated catalog of reviewable, code-level edits (lifters), instantiating the LLM-as-optimizer paradigm in an industrial setting. The same encoder representation yields +1.197% RIG on the production bid win-rate model and +1.354% RIG on the production CTR ranker; a 7-day live A/B test confirms +2.13% CTR, -1.13% eCPC (80% CI excluding zero on both metrics).

As search increasingly shifts toward LLM-driven answer engines, advertising is becoming embedded within the generated response itself and should therefore be evaluated for both user utility and commercial value. The key challenge is click-through intent: behavioural logs are unavailable, human annotation resists calibration, and frontier LLM judges conflate intent with linguistic fluency. These gaps compound, as principled pricing presupposes a continuous intent signal, while generating such a signal presupposes supervision that is currently unavailable. We construct the missing supervision through a psychologically grounded agent simulation framework, and distil it into a parameter-efficient evaluator that predicts click-through intent, together with the three companion dimensions of ad quality, as smooth, differentiable estimates. Validated through sign-certain behavioural perturbations, the evaluator surpasses frontier zero-shot judges on relevance sensitivity (79% versus 60-67%), tracks graded content degradation, generalises without error to 103 fictional products, and agrees with human preference in 86% of pairwise judgements across five annotators, with agreement rising in the evaluator's confidence. Upon its estimates we build the pricing layer directly, deriving the unique payment rule under which truthful bidding is optimal, demonstrating it on a best-of-k allocation, and extending the mechanism to non-monotone allocations. The same differentiable signal stands ready as a training objective for ad generation.

Real-time bidding is central to computational advertising, comprising three elements: Supply Side Platform (SSP) selling ad impressions, Demand Side Platform (DSP) bidding for advertisers, and Ad Exchange conducting auctions between them. Traditional auto-bidding algorithms focus solely on the DSP side, maximizing advertiser conversions by adjusting bids against competitors. However, current big ad platforms, such as social media and e-commerce companies, now integrate SSP, DSP, and Ad Exchange functions internally. From such ad platforms' perspective, the goal of the auto-bidding algorithms is not only to maximize the advertisers' conversions, but also the total revenue of the platform. Given the lack of platform-centric evaluation frameworks and the pressing need to advance auto-bidding research, we propose PlatformBid - the first comprehensive benchmark designed from a unified ad platform's perspective. To accurately reflect the real-world auto-bidding scenarios, we define three representative settings: (1) homogeneous competition with identical algorithms across advertisers, (2) heterogeneous competition with diverse algorithmic strategies, and (3) promotional competition where some advertisers surge budgets for boosting sales during promotional events like Black Friday. We systematically evaluate a broad spectrum of existing auto-bidding methods across these settings, encompassing classical control methods, RL-based methods, and recent generative methods. Besides these methods, we further propose a novel auto-bidding method based on flow-matching, termed BidFlow, which leverages the flow-matching method's expressive policy representation to effectively handle dynamic competitive environments. Online experiments on Kuaishou further show a +0.68% improvement in target cost, providing deployment evidence for the offline-online consistency of PlatformBid.

As LLM agents move from decision support to autonomous procurement, firms need to know whether delegated negotiators create value, divide it predictably, and avoid money-losing contracts. We study this in a canonical supply chain bargaining problem: a buyer with private demand information negotiates a quantity-payment contract with an uninformed seller. We benchmark nine LLMs from OpenAI, Google, and Alibaba against a validated Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium across 9,840 LLM-to-LLM negotiations. First, capability governs value creation. Agents agree in 98.9% of negotiations and capture 95.4% of first-best surplus undiscounted, but average 2.98 rounds against the benchmark's 1.25, and this delay erodes 21-34% of surplus. Capability also governs reliability: baseline models accept individually irrational contracts in 19.2% of cases, versus 0.0-0.6% at mid-tier and flagship, making automated profit verification the binding guardrail below that threshold. Second, surplus capture is relational. Provider identity predicts who captures surplus better than capability rank: self-play buyer shares average 40% for OpenAI, 50% for Google, and 70% for Alibaba's Qwen, an ordering that survives restricted communication and no discounting. Reversing which provider sells moves the division by 7-18 percentage points, and the capable Qwen flagship is the weakest cross-family seller: vendor choice is a first-order distributional decision. Third, the prompt is a strategic lever. Delegation separates the principal's economic patience from the agent's prompted strategic patience, a free deployment choice that is the single strongest driver of surplus division (90% of explained variance). Together these establish an equilibrium-referenced audit of AI agents along three dimensions: discounted efficiency, distributional profile, and operational reliability.

Empirical work on algorithmic collusion asks one question of the data: are prices supracompetitive? We show this can be answered "no" by a conspiracy that is nonetheless profitable. Consider bidding agents that couple only through the joint distribution of their unexplained bid components, leaving every agent's own bid law exactly at the competitive law. Any test whose input is a single agent's price or bid history then has power exactly equal to its false-positive rate, for every coupling strength up to comonotonicity. The published detection methodology is therefore blind to this conduct by construction rather than underpowered, and no sample size repairs it. Three empirical results follow. First, the mechanism appears in real language-model agents: twenty models from nineteen independent developers, three deployment prompts each, show residual correlation of $+0.053$ between two deployments of one model against $+0.0001$ across models, with a 95% interval clustered by developer of $[0.030, 0.078]$, under an auditor that sees every order feature and is fitted out of sample. Second, the coupling falls monotonically as sampling temperature rises ($p=0.002$), turning a deployment parameter into a candidate mitigation. Third, on 24 days of Ethereum block-building auction data covering 77,684 bids from 39 bidders, the honest population of bidder pairs is itself so dependent that a screen held at a 5% false-positive rate must sit above a floor of $+0.50$ to $+0.81$, which is 20 to 32 times the family-wise sampling threshold and does not fall as the audit window grows. Since lawful multi-identity operation and conspiracy are behaviourally indistinguishable here, the tractable regulatory target is not detection but counting: resolving 40 bidding identities into 23 operators raises the Herfindahl index by 247.5%, and adding behavioural clusters from public bid streams reaches 324.5%.