Model Predictive Control

Also known as MPC

Ask about this topic

Overview

Model Predictive Control (MPC) predicts how a system will evolve, optimizes a sequence of actions over a finite horizon, applies the first action, and replans as measurements arrive. Work spans linear and nonlinear optimization, sampling-based methods such as MPPI, and learned dynamics from Gaussian processes, Koopman models, and neural world models; these methods are used in robotics, autonomous vehicles, energy systems, and process control. Robust and stochastic MPC, control barrier functions, reachability, and distributed optimization address uncertainty, safety, and coordination, while GPU and embedded solvers aim to meet real-time limits. A central tension is that longer, richer predictions can improve planning but increase computation and sensitivity to model error, so practical controllers must balance performance, safety guarantees, and reliable execution.

Latest papers

CardsList

305 papers40 papers in the last four weeks, down 7% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

May 19, 2026

Differentiable Model Predictive Safety for Heterogeneous Mobility at Urban Intersections

The imminent integration of autonomous vehicles and mobile robots in urban settings presents a critical safety challenge for future intelligent transportation systems. This paper addresses the complex problem of coordinating heterogeneous agents with disparate dynamics at unregulated intersections. We introduce a novel framework, differentiable model predictive safety (DMPS), which embeds the foresight of model-predictive control into a data-driven, end-to-end reinforcement learning architecture. DMPS agents learn a latent dynamics model to predict future trajectories contingent on their actions. A learned, differentiable safety critic then evaluates the risk of these trajectories. Crucially, by leveraging backpropagation through the entire unrolled predictive model, agents can efficiently compute the gradient of future safety with respect to their current action, enabling a minimal and precise online safety correction. Integrated into a multi-agent training scheme, DMPS virtually eliminates collisions to less than 5.6% in high-density, mixed vehicle-robot traffic simulations, demonstrating state-of-the-art safety without compromising energy and traffic efficiency.

Wenzhe Song, Hao Zhang

School of Business Stevens Institute of Technology Hoboken, 07030, USA · Department of Mechanical Engineering Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, 15213, USA

Multi-Agent CoordinationIntelligent Transportation SystemsModel Predictive ControlSafe RLMulti-Agent Reinforcement Learning
AskPDF
May 18, 2026

Probabilistic Recursively Feasible Motion Planning Under Uncertain Environments

Safe motion planning in uncertain, time-varying environments is challenging because the safe region can change unpredictably across planning steps, often causing a loss of recursive feasibility. In this work, we present a Probabilistic Recursively Feasible Model Predictive Control (PRF-MPC) framework that guarantees recursive feasibility with a specified probability. We introduce properties that an ideal predictor should satisfy to ensure distributional consistency, and use these properties to derive closed-form expressions for the means and covariances of trajectories predicted at future time steps. Building on this analysis, we construct safety constraints that ensure, with high probability, that the current safe set is contained within the safe sets at future time steps, thereby probabilistically guaranteeing recursive feasibility. Simulation results on a lane-change scenario demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves recursive feasibility.

Hyeontae Sung, Hyeongchan Ham, Junyoung Park +2

School of Electrical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Korea · The SYCAMORE Lab, ´Ecole Polytechnique F´ed´erale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland

Constrained Motion PlanningChance-Constrained Motion PlanningModel Predictive ControlSafe Motion PlanningMotion Planning
AskPDF
May 18, 2026

Dynamic robotic cloth folding with efficient Koopman operator-based model predictive control

Robotic cloth folding is a challenging task, particularly when considering dynamic folding tasks, which aim at folding cloth by fast motions that leverage its dynamics. When subject to such fast motions, the complexity of cloth dynamics hinders both system identification and planning of folding trajectories, resulting in a difficult simulation-to-reality transfer when using physical models of cloth. Compared to the dexterity that humans exhibit when performing folding tasks, robotic approaches usually employ small garments with quite rigid dynamics, and are either too slow, or fast but imprecise, requiring several attempts to achieve a reasonably good fold. In this paper, we tackle these challenges by generating fast folding trajectories with a novel model predictive controller, integrating physics-based simulation of cloth dynamics and efficient, kernel-based Koopman operator regression. Koopman operator regression, an increasingly popular machine learning technique for nonlinear system identification, is used to obtain a linear model for the cloth being folded. Such a surrogate model, trained with data from a high-fidelity, physics-based cloth simulator, can then be employed within a suitable model predictive control algorithm, in place of the costly, nonlinear one, to efficiently generate folding trajectories to be executed by a robotic manipulator. Both in simulated and real-robot experiments, we show how the linearization supplied by the Koopman operator-based model can be employed to efficiently generate fast folding trajectories to unseen poses, without sacrificing folding accuracy.

Edoardo Caldarelli, Franco Coltraro, Adrià Colomé +2

Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia, Genoa, Italy · Institut de Rob`otica i Inform`atica Industrial, CSIC–UPC, Barcelona, Spain · MaLGa Center, DIB-RIS, Universit`a degli Studi di Genova, Genoa, Italy

Model Predictive ControlRobotic Manipulation
AskPDF
May 15, 2026

EfficientTDMPC: Improved MPC Objectives for Sample-Efficient Continuous Control

We introduce EfficientTDMPC, a sample-efficient model-based reinforcement learning method for continuous control built on the TD-MPC family of algorithms. Central to this family is a planner that aims to find an action sequence that maximizes the estimated return. The return is estimated using a learned model and value networks, each of which can introduce error. EfficientTDMPC introduces three contributions that improve performance by aiming to reduce this error. First, we introduce a multi-horizon planning objective that evaluates the value at different rollout depths and averages them. Second, to our knowledge we are the first to train a value-equivalent dynamics ensemble. Our improved objective then averages over rollouts from multiple dynamics heads. Third, we add pessimistic reanalyze for tasks that can terminate early. Applying our contributions to a recent baseline (BMPC) yields EfficientTDMPC, which to our knowledge is the new state of the art in sample efficiency on HumanoidBench and the DeepMind Control Suite, reaching BMPC's final aggregated performance using 57% fewer environment steps.

Thomas Evers, Cristian Meo, Wendelin Bohmer +2

TU Delft · LatentWorlds AI

Model Predictive ControlContinuous ControlSample-Efficient RLModel-Based RL
AskPDF
May 15, 2026

Constrained MPC-Based Motion Planning for Morphing Quadrotors in Ultra-Narrow Passages under Limited Perception

This paper introduces a motion planning framework to plan morphology and trajectory for morphing quadrotors under extremely constrained environments. We develop a novel obstacle avoidance cost function for nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) that enables navigation through extremely narrow gaps under limited perception from a 2D LiDAR. Classical artificial potential field-based costs typically have a high cost in narrow passages, artificially blocking the navigable path. In contrast, we propose a smooth exponential obstacle cost that preserves low traversal cost within narrow gaps while maintaining strong collision avoidance behavior. The formulation avoids hard activation thresholds and introduces a cost reduction factor to reduce the cost within narrow passages. Direct use of 2D LiDAR measurements in MPC allows navigation around arbitrarily shaped obstacles. The method is embedded within an acados-based nonlinear MPC framework. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate successful traversal of narrow corridors where typical repulsive cost functions would fail. The approach provides a computationally efficient and practical solution for navigating through tight spaces while maintaining safety from the obstacles. While we are implementing the framework on the morphing quadrotors, the cost function formulation is general-purpose for any mobile robot application, and is not limited to the morphing quadrotors. The implementation code is available at Github Repo and a short video is available at Video Link.

Harsh Modi, Xiao Liang, Minghui Zheng

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA · Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA

Aerial RoboticsConstrained Motion PlanningTrajectory GenerationNonlinear MPCModel Predictive ControlSafe Motion Planning+1
AskPDF
May 14, 2026

Slot-MPC: Goal-Conditioned Model Predictive Control with Object-Centric Representations

Predictive world models enable agents to model scene dynamics and reason about the consequences of their actions. Inspired by human perception, object-centric world models capture scene dynamics using object-level representations, which can be used for downstream applications such as action planning. However, most object-centric world models and reinforcement learning (RL) approaches learn reactive policies that are fixed at inference time, limiting generalization to novel situations. We propose Slot-MPC, an object-centric world modeling framework that enables planning through Model Predictive Control (MPC). Slot-MPC leverages vision encoders to learn slot-based representations, which encode individual objects in the scene, and uses these structured representations to learn an action-conditioned object-centric dynamics model. At inference time, the learned dynamics model enables action planning via MPC, allowing agents to adapt to previously unseen situations. Since the learned world model is differentiable, we can use gradient-based MPC to directly optimize actions, which is computationally more efficient than relying on gradient-free, sampling-based MPC methods. Experiments on simulated robotic manipulation tasks show that Slot-MPC improves both task performance and planning efficiency compared to non-object-centric world model baselines. In the considered offline setting with limited state-action coverage, we find that gradient-based MPC performs better than gradient-free, sampling-based MPC. Our results demonstrate that explicitly structured, object-centric representations provide a strong inductive bias for controllable and generalizable decision-making. Code and additional results are available at https://slot-mpc.github.io.

Jonathan Spieler, Angel Villar-Corrales, Sven Behnke

Autonomous Intelligent Systems, Computer Science Institute VI - Intelligent Systems and Robotics, Center for Robotics and the Lamarr Institute for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, University of Bonn, Germany

World Models for RoboticsWorld Model-Based PlanningAction-Conditioned World ModelsObject-Centric Representation LearningModel Predictive ControlRobotic Manipulation
AskPDF
May 14, 2026

FU-MPC: Frontier- and Uncertainty-Aware Model Predictive Control for Efficient and Accurate UAV Exploration with Motorized LiDAR

Efficient UAV exploration in unknown environments requires rapid coverage expansion while maintaining accurate and reliable localization, since safe navigation in complex scenes depends on consistent mapping and pose estimation. However, for conventional LiDAR-equipped UAVs, the observable region is tightly coupled with the UAV pose and motion. Expanding coverage often requires additional translational or rotational maneuvers, which can reduce exploration efficiency and increase the risk of localization degradation in geometrically challenging environments. Motorized rotating LiDARs provide a promising solution by actively adjusting the sensor viewing direction without changing the UAV motion, thereby introducing an additional sensing degree of freedom. Nevertheless, existing exploration systems rarely exploit this scanning freedom as an explicit decision variable linked to both exploration progress and localization quality. To address this gap, we develop a UAV platform equipped with an independently actuated rotating LiDAR and propose a hierarchical exploration framework. The global planner organizes frontiers into representative viewpoints and sequences them using topology-aware transition costs. Built upon this planner, FU-MPC serves as a local receding-horizon scan controller that optimizes LiDAR rotation along the predicted flight trajectory. The controller jointly considers frontier-aware exploration utility and direction-dependent localization uncertainty, while lightweight surrogate evaluation enables real-time onboard execution. Experiments in complex environments demonstrate that the proposed system improves exploration efficiency while maintaining robust localization performance compared with fixed-pattern scanning and uncertainty-only baselines. The project page can be found at https://kafeiyin00.github.io/FU-MPC/.

Jianping Li, Pengfei Wan, Zhongyuan Liu +6

Model Predictive ControlMotion Planning
AskPDF
May 13, 2026

TinySDP: Real Time Semidefinite Optimization for Certifiable and Agile Edge Robotics

Semidefinite programming (SDP) provides a principled framework for convex relaxations of nonconvex geometric constraints in motion planning, yet existing solvers are too computationally expensive for real-time control, particularly on resource-constrained embedded systems. To address this gap, we introduce TinySDP, the first semidefinite programming solver designed for embedded systems, enabling real-time model-predictive control (MPC) on microcontrollers for problems with nonconvex obstacle constraints. Our approach integrates positive-semidefinite cone projections into a cached-Riccati-based ADMM solver, leveraging computational structure for embedded tractability. We pair this solver with an a posteriori rank-1 certificate that converts relaxed solutions into explicit geometric guarantees at each timestep. On challenging benchmarks, e.g., cul-de-sac and dynamic obstacle avoidance scenarios that induce failures in local methods, TinySDP achieves collision-free navigation with up to 73% shorter paths than state-of-the-art baselines. We validate our approach on a Crazyflie quadrotor, demonstrating that semidefinite constraints can be enforced at real-time rates for agile embedded robotics.

Ishaan Mahajan, Jon Arrizabalaga, Andrea Grillo +4

Columbia University, USA · Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA · ´Ecole Polytechnique F´ed´erale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland +1

Semidefinite ProgrammingConstrained Motion PlanningRoboticsModel Predictive ControlConstrained OptimizationSafe Motion Planning
AskPDF
May 12, 2026

Multistep Belief Space Dynamics Learning For Risk-Aware Control

As autonomous vehicles move from a simplified research setting to practical use, there exists a large gap between the dynamic behavior of a human driving and an autonomous system. Risk-aware behavior needs to naturally develop in order to scale to the demands of the real world. A major issue for risk-aware planning and control has been predicting how dynamical uncertainty evolves through time and optimizing plans that account for this without being overly conservative. Here, we present a learning framework to predict distributional dynamics that can be optimized in real time for Model Predictive Control (MPC). We explore the importance of structure when learning distributional dynamics for use in MPC. A rigorous ablation study is conducted on a large dataset of real world off-road driving that shows the impact of deviations from our proposed structure. Furthermore, we deploy our learned model and planning stack on a full sized vehicle in challenging off-road conditions. Our planning architecture is able to naturally regulate the speed of the vehicle based on the environment and consistently demonstrates intelligent behavior over miles of diverse terrain.

Jason Gibson, Bogdan Vlahov, Patrick Spieler +1

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta GA 30313 USA · California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA

Belief-Space PlanningAutonomous DrivingModel Predictive Control
AskPDF
May 11, 2026

Decentralized Contingency MPC based on Safe Sets for Nonlinear Multi-agent Collision Avoidance

Decentralized collision avoidance remains challenging, particularly when agents do not communicate any information related to planned trajectories. Most existing approaches either rely on conservative coordination mechanisms or provide limited guarantees on recursive feasibility and convergence. This paper develops a decentralized contingency MPC framework for multi-agent systems with nonlinear dynamics that achieves collision-free motion under a state-only information pattern. Each agent follows the same consensual rule set, enabling safe decentralized planning without communication. Each agent solves a local optimization problem that couples a nominal trajectory with a contingency certificate ensuring a feasible backup maneuver under receding-horizon operation. A novel geometric and decentralized safe-set update mechanism prevents feasibility loss between consecutive time steps. The resulting scheme guarantees recursive feasibility, including collision avoidance, and establishes a Lyapunov-type convergence result to an admissible safe equilibrium. Simulation results demonstrate performance in both sparse and dense multi-agent environments, including cluttered bottleneck scenarios and under plug-and-play operation.

Max Studt, Georg Schildbach

Institute for Electrical Engineering in Medicine, University of Luebeck, Luebeck, Germany

Collision AvoidanceModel Predictive ControlSafe Motion Planning
AskPDF
May 11, 2026

Hierarchical Causal Abduction: A Foundation Framework for Explainable Model Predictive Control

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is widely used to operate safety-critical infrastructure by predicting future trajectories and optimizing control actions. However, nonlinear dynamics, hard safety constraints, and numerical optimization often render individual control moves opaque to human operators, undermining trust and hindering deployment. This paper presents Hierarchical Causal Abduction (HCA), which combines (i) physics-informed reasoning via domain knowledge graphs, (ii) optimization evidence from Karush--Kuhn--Tucker (KKT) multipliers, and (iii) temporal causal discovery via the PCMCI algorithm to generate faithful, human-interpretable explanations for control actions computed by nonlinear MPC. Across three diverse control applications (greenhouse climate, building HVAC, chemical process engineering) with expert validation, HCA improves explanation accuracy by 53% over LIME (0.478 vs. 0.311) using a single set of cross-domain parameters without per-domain tuning; domain-specific KKT-threshold calibration over 2--3 days further increases accuracy to 0.88. Ablation studies confirm that each evidence source is essential, with 32--37% accuracy degradation when any component is removed, and HCA's ranking-and-validation methodology generalizes beyond MPC to other prediction-based decision systems, including learning-based control and trajectory planning.

Ramesh Arvind Naagarajan, Zühal Wagner, Stefan Streif

Professorship for Automatic Control and System Dynamics, Chemnitz University of Technology, Chemnitz, Germany · Department of Bioresources, Fraunhofer Institute for Molecular Biology and Applied Ecology, Giessen, Germany.

Nonlinear MPCModel Predictive ControlCausal Explanation
AskPDF
May 10, 2026

Mismatch-Aware Adaptive Constraint Tightening for Bicycle-Model Trajectory Optimization

Trajectory optimization for autonomous vehicles usually relies on the kinematic bicycle model because of its computational simplicity. However, when the planned trajectory is executed under the true vehicle dynamics, which include lateral slip, tire stiffness and yaw-lateral coupling, safety constraints can be violated owing to the model mismatch. In this paper, we make three theoretical contributions. First, we derive a characteristic speed vc=CαL/Mv_c=\sqrt{C_αL/M} which separates two different mismatch regimes: below vcv_c the dynamic bicycle initially oversteers inward (safe); above vcv_c it understeers outward (safety-critical). Second, we prove that the peak outward deviation ε∗\varepsilon^* follows a T2T^2 horizon scaling whose coefficient transitions between a transient bound 12(v2−vc2)κ\frac{1}{2}(v^2-v_c^2)κ and a steady-state bound. Third, we obtain a simulation-free analytical coefficient a2anal=12(1−vc2/vmax⁡2)T2a_2^{\mathrm{anal}}=\frac{1}{2}(1-v_c^2/v_{\max}^2)T^2 that is computable from vehicle parameters and the planning horizon alone. Putting these together, we propose Mismatch-Aware Adaptive Constraint Tightening (MACT), ε(v,κ)=a2v2∣κ∣ε(v,κ)=a_2 v^2|κ|, which replaces a fixed worst-case margin by a state-dependent one that is large at high speed/curvature but nearly zero on gentle paths. Eight numerical experiments confirm the scaling laws. MACT reaches 100% safety with 84% less wasted margin than a fixed-margin baseline on the 2-DOF vehicle, extends to a nonlinear leaning bicycle, and in a closed-loop direct-shooting MPC comparison it cuts the applied margin by 34% compared with tube MPC while keeping the same safety.

Lingxue Lyu, Zihui Liu

School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA · Department of Aeronautics & Astronautics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA

Trajectory OptimizationModel Predictive ControlVehicle DynamicsConstrained OptimizationAutonomous Driving Planning
AskPDF
May 9, 2026

SHIELD: Scalable Optimal Control with Certification using Duality and Convexity

We present SHIELD, a hierarchical algorithm that reduces both the decision-variable dimension and the constraint set in ℓ1\ell_1-regularized convex programs. From strong convexity and Lagrangian duality, we derive certificates that safely discard constraints and decision variables while guaranteeing that all removed constraints remain satisfied and all removed variables are null. To further accelerate the proposed algorithm, we propose a transformer-based deep neural network to guide the dual certificate inference. We validate SHIELD on stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) in complex, multi-modal traffic scenarios, comparing against a full-dimensional SMPC policy. Numerical simulations demonstrate order-of-magnitude computational speedups while preserving feasibility and closed-loop safety, highlighting the practicality of certifiably safe, lightweight MPC in complex driving scenes.

Hansung Kim, Siddharth H. Nair, Francesco Borrelli

Model Predictive Control Laboratory, UC Berkeley · Nextracker Inc.

Primal-Dual OptimizationModel Predictive ControlOptimal Control
AskPDF
May 8, 2026

Sensitivity-Based Robust NMPC for Close-Proximity Offshore Wind Turbine Inspection with a Tilted Multirotor

Close-proximity offshore wind turbine inspection requires strict clearance control around large cylindrical structures under wind and model mismatch. Nominal Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) may violate safety constraints when mass, inertia, thrust effectiveness, drag, or wind conditions differ from nominal assumptions. We propose a sensitivity-based robust NMPC for a tilted multirotor that robustifies the tower-clearance constraint via online constraint tightening. First-order parametric state sensitivities provide a structured-uncertainty margin, while bounded gusts are handled by a stage-dependent additive margin. The formulation augments the nominal NMPC with sensitivity propagation and margin evaluation only, leaving the receding-horizon optimization structure unchanged. Monte-Carlo evaluation over 500 uncertainty realizations on a boundary-critical helical inspection trajectory shows that the proposed controller eliminates the clearance violations observed under nominal NMPC at the cost of a moderate increase in solve time.

Giuseppe Silano, Martin Saska

Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico S.p.A., Milan, Italy, and the Czech Technical University in Prague, Czechia · Czech Technical University in Prague, Czechia

Industrial InspectionRobust ControlModel Predictive ControlConstrained OptimizationQuadrotor Control
AskPDF
May 8, 2026

Interactive Trajectory Planning with Learning-based Distributionally Robust Model Predictive Control and Markov Systems

We investigate interactive trajectory planning subject to uncertainty in the decisions of surrounding agents. To control the ego-agent, we aim to first learn the decision distribution and solve a Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) problem. To account for errors in the learned distribution, we show that it is possible to utilize Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning in combination with Distributionally Robust (DR) optimization to obtain a solution which accounts for the errors induced by the learning model. The results indicate that our PAC learning-based DR-MPC framework provides a method to interpolate between a robust MPC and an omnipotent SMPC, based on the available number of samples.

Erik Börve, Nikolce Murgovski, Morteza Haghir Chehreghani +1

Chalmers University of Technology, Chalmersgatan 4, 412 96 Göteborg, Sweden · Volvo Group Trucks Technology, Gropegårdsgatan 2, 417 15 Göteborg, Sweden

Distributionally Robust OptimizationModel Predictive ControlMotion PlanningOptimal Control
AskPDF
May 7, 2026

Accurate Trajectory Tracking with MPCC for Flapping-Wing MAVs

Flapping-wing micro aerial vehicles offer quieter and safer operation than rotary-wing drones, yet achieving precise autonomous control of bird-scale ornithopters remains challenging: lift, airspeed, and turning authority are tightly coupled and governed by only a few control inputs. Conventional cascaded controllers treat altitude, speed, and heading independently, producing persistent tracking errors during complex maneuvers, while time-parameterized trajectory tracking requires predefined speed profiles that existing methods cannot robustly produce for these coupled dynamics. We address both limitations simultaneously with a Model Predictive Contouring Control (MPCC) approach that tracks arc-length-parameterized trajectories while optimizing progress online, eliminating the need for predefined timing. However, MPCC requires a dynamical model that captures the coupled aerodynamics without exceeding the computational budget of real-time nonlinear optimization. Here, we propose a compact, continuously differentiable model that captures the dominant couplings of bird-scale ornithopters, enabling real-time predictive control. We validated the method with the XFly ornithopter flying along circular and three-dimensional racing trajectories and achieved a mean deviation from the reference trajectory between 6.5 and 9 cm at speeds up to 3 m/s, which represents an almost 10-fold improvement over prior ornithopter control methods.

Charbel Toumieh, Jack Zeng, Niel Mistry +1

Laboratory of Intelligent Systems, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH1015 Lausanne, Switzerland

Robot Trajectory TrackingAerial RoboticsNonlinear MPCModel Predictive Control
AskPDF
May 7, 2026

Maximal Controlled Invariant-MPC: Enhancing Feasibility and Reducing Conservatism through Terminal CBF Constraint in Safety-Critical Control

Optimal control for safety-critical systems is often dependent on the conservativeness of constraints. Control Barrier Functions (CBFs) serve as a medium to represent such constraints, but constructing a minimally conservative CBF is a computationally intractable problem. Therefore, approaches that can guarantee safety while reducing conservatism will help improve the optimality of the system under consideration. Here, we present a Model Predictive Control (MPC) formulation using CBF as a terminal constraint, which is proven to improve feasibility and reachable sets with increasing prediction horizon. The constructive nature of the proofs allows for warm-starting the nonlinear optimization problem, thereby reducing the computational time substantially. Simulations are set up for a simple nonholonomic system to numerically validate the results, and it is observed that the number of infeasible points decreased by a factor of 1.7 to 2.7. The increase in reachable state space was demonstrated by the ability of the system to track trajectories that are entirely inside the unsafe region of the control barrier function.

Tanmay Dokania, Yashwanth Kumar Nakka

Graduate Student, Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering. · Assistant Professor, Director, Aerospace Robotics Lab, Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering.

Dynamical SystemsSafety-Critical ControlNonlinear MPCControl Barrier FunctionsModel Predictive ControlOptimal Control
AskPDF
May 6, 2026

Bilinear Mamba-Koopman Neural MPC for Varying Dynamics

Koopman-based neural MPC models generate time-varying dynamics from historical data, but preserve convexity by enforcing that the system operator is independent of the current control input. This conditional independence constraint limits adaptation to changing dynamics within a single MPC horizon, particularly under time-varying conditions and under stale-plan execution. We propose Bilinear Mamba-Koopman Neural MPC, a minimal extension that introduces control-dependent coupling in the latent dynamics, allowing the effective operator to adapt to the current input. The resulting model is a strict generalization of the standard linear, conditional-independence formulation, adds less than 1% parameters through a low-rank structure, and admits exact model Jacobians that enable efficient Sequential Convex Programming (SCP) with monotone-descent and KKT convergence results under standard trust-region assumptions. Across CartPole and RSCP benchmarks in time-invariant and time-varying regimes, the proposed model matches or improves forecasting accuracy on every cell when training noise is averaged out, with strict gains where control-state coupling is structurally present. Its main closed-loop gains appear in the RSCP TV task, where iterative SCP improves adaptation within the horizon and substantially stabilizes training; in CartPole TV, the gains are modest but consistent. In delayed re-planning experiments on the time-varying variants, the bilinear model degrades more gracefully under stale-plan execution, maintaining a consistent advantage on CartPole TV and a substantially larger robustness margin on RSCP TV. These results show that control-dependent latent dynamics provide a simple and effective mechanism for robust MPC under varying conditions.

Matan Pagi, Zohar Sorek

Psistar AI

Optimal ControlDynamical SystemsKoopman Operator LearningNonlinear MPCRobust ControlModel Predictive Control+2
AskPDF
May 6, 2026

ELVIS: Ensemble-Calibrated Latent Imagination for Long-Horizon Visual MPC

A central challenge of visual control with model-based reinforcement learning (RL) is reliable long-horizon planning: long rollouts with learned latent dynamics exhibit branching futures and multi-modal action-value distributions. In addition, compounding model errors amplified by visual occlusions make deep imagination brittle. We present ELVIS, a latent model predictive controller (MPC) designed to make long-horizon planning practical. ELVIS plans in a Dreamer-style recurrent state space model (RSSM) and replaces standard unimodal model predictive path integral (MPPI) with a Gaussian-mixture MPPI that maintains multiple coherent hypotheses over long horizons, avoiding mode averaging under branching rollouts. In parallel, ELVIS stabilizes deep imagination with a shared uncertainty-aware lambda-return: an ensemble of latent critics defines an upper-confidence-bound (UCB) score that gates a time-varying lambda, adaptively trading off bootstrapping versus look-ahead to limit compounding error during planning. The same return is used both to train an actor-critic prior from imagined rollouts and to score candidate trajectories inside GMM-MPPI, aligning RL objectives with the planner's long-horizon optimization. On fourteen DeepMind Control Suite visual tasks, ELVIS establishes state-of-the-art performance compared with TD-MPC2 and DreamerV3. Finally, ELVIS transfers zero-shot to a real-world sand-spraying task with severe occlusions, improving surface-quality metrics and demonstrating robustness beyond simulation.

Yurui Du, Pinhao Song, Yutong Hu +1

KU Leuven, Dept. Electrical Engineering, Research unit Processing Speech and Images, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium · Flanders Make at KU Leuven, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium · KU Leuven, Dept. Mechanical Engineering, Research unit Robotics, Automation and Mechatronics, B-3000 Leuven, Belgium

Visual SSMsModel Predictive ControlMPPI ControlVisual RLModel-Based RL
AskPDF
May 6, 2026

Right Model, Right Time: Real-Time Cascaded-Fidelity MPC for Bipedal Walking

This paper presents a multi-phase whole-body model predictive control (MPC) approach for bipedal walking, combining a detailed whole-body model in the near horizon with a simplified single-rigid-body model in the later prediction steps. This reduces computational complexity while retaining prediction capabilities. The resulting nonlinear optimal control problem is solved entirely within the general-purpose, off-the-shelf nonlinear MPC framework acados, using sequential quadratic programming (SQP). Given a contact schedule and a target walking speed, the controller optimizes joint torques without depending on preselected footstep locations. The controller is validated in MuJoCo simulation on the 18-DoF bipedal robot HyPer-2.

Franek Stark, Felix Wiebe, Shubham Vyas +2

Robotics Innovation Center at the German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI), Bremen, Germany · University Bremen, Germany

Nonlinear MPCWhole-Body ControlModel Predictive ControlRobot LocomotionOptimal Control
AskPDF
May 6, 2026

Dream-MPC: Gradient-Based Model Predictive Control with Latent Imagination

State-of-the-art model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches either use gradient-free, population-based methods for planning, learned policy networks, or a combination of policy networks and planning. Hybrid approaches that combine Model Predictive Control (MPC) with a learned model and a policy prior to leverage the advantages of both paradigms have shown promising results. However, these approaches typically rely on gradient-free optimization methods, which can be computationally expensive for high-dimensional control tasks. While gradient-based methods are a promising alternative, recent works have empirically shown that gradient-based methods often perform worse than their gradient-free counterparts. We propose Dream-MPC, a novel approach that generates few candidate trajectories from a rolled-out policy and optimizes each trajectory by gradient ascent using a learned world model, uncertainty regularization and amortization of optimization iterations over time by reusing previously optimized actions. Our results on 24 continuous control tasks show that Dream-MPC can significantly improve the performance of the underlying policy and can outperform gradient-free MPC and state-of-the-art baselines. Code and videos are available at https://dream-mpc.github.io.

Jonathan Spieler, Sven Behnke

Autonomous Intelligent Systems, Computer Science Institute VI - Intelligent Systems and Robotics, Center for Robotics and the Lamarr Institute for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, University of Bonn, Germany.

Model Predictive ControlOptimal ControlModel-Based RL
AskPDF
May 5, 2026

Sensorless State Estimation and Control for Agile Cable-Suspended Payload Transport by Quadrotors

This work proposes a novel control and estimation approach for aerial manipulation of a cable-suspended load using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Common approaches in the state of the art have practical limitations, relying on direct load measurements and Lagrangian methods for dynamic modeling. The lack of a straightforward dynamic model of the system led us to propose adopting the Udwadia-Kalaba method to explicitly incorporate the cable's geometric constraints. This formulation allowed for the consistent derivation of the tension force and its direct integration into the NMPC prediction model. Additionally, we propose a sensorless load state estimation based on the same geometric constraints. Results from real-robot experiments demonstrated that the explicit inclusion of load dynamics in the optimization problem significantly reduces trajectory-tracking errors and yields better overall performance compared to strategies based on incomplete models.

Ana Maria Nascimento, Augusto Sales, Antonio Marcus Lima +1

Aerial RoboticsNonlinear MPCModel Predictive ControlQuadrotor ControlRobot State EstimationAerial Manipulation
AskPDF
May 5, 2026

On Surprising Effects of Risk-Aware Domain Randomization for Contact-Rich Sampling-based Predictive Control

Domain randomization (DR) is widely used in policy learning to improve robustness to modeling error, but remains underexplored in contact-rich sampling-based predictive control (SPC), where rollout quality is highly sensitive to uncertainty. In this work, we take the first step by studying risk-aware DR in predictive sampling on a simple yet representative Push-T task, comparing average, optimistic, and pessimistic rollout aggregations under randomized model instances. Our initial results suggest that DR affects not only robustness to model error, but also the effective cost landscape seen by the sampling-based optimizer, by reshaping the basin of attraction around contact-producing actions. This opens up potential for exploring better grounded risk-aware contact-rich SPC under model uncertainty. Video: https://youtu.be/f1F0ALXxhSM

Sergio A. Esteban, Junheng Li, Vince Kurtz +1

Department of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA · School of Computing, DePaul University, Chicago, IL, USA

Domain RandomizationContact-Rich ManipulationUncertainty QuantificationModel Predictive Control
AskPDF
May 4, 2026

Robust Adaptive Predictive Control for Hook-Based Aerial Transportation Between Moving Platforms

This paper presents a novel model predictive control (MPC) approach for autonomous pick-and-place between moving platforms with a hook-equipped aerial manipulator. First, for accurate and rapid modeling of the complex dynamics, a digital twin model of the quadcopter equipped with a hook-based gripper, implemented in MuJoCo, is constructed and used as the predictive model for the MPC. To handle uncertainties of the predictive model (e.g. due to aerodynamics and uncertain payloads), a robust adaptive MPC approach is proposed. By systematic integration of zero-order robust optimization (zoRO) based uncertainty propagation and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) for parameter estimation, the MPC algorithm ensures robust constraint satisfaction, high performance, and computational efficiency. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated in complex simulated scenarios and in real-world flight experiments.

Péter Antal, Andrea Carron, Melanie Zeilinger +2

Systems and Control Lab, HUN-REN Institute for Computer Science and Control, Budapest, Hungary · Institute for Dynamic Systems and Control, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland · Control Systems Group of the Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

Robust ControlModel Predictive ControlRobotic ManipulationQuadrotor ControlAdaptive ControlAerial Manipulation
AskPDF
May 4, 2026

Sampling-Based Control via Entropy-Regularized Optimal Transport

Sampling-based model predictive control methods like MPPI and CEM are essential for real-time control of nonlinear robotic systems, particularly where discontinuous dynamics preclude gradient-based optimization. However, these methods derive from information-theoretic objectives that are agnostic to the geometry of the control problem, leading to pathological behaviors such as mode-averaging when the cost landscape is complex. We present OT-MPC, a sampling-based algorithm that overcomes these limitations through an entropy-regularized optimal transport formulation. By computing an optimal coupling between candidate control sequences and low-cost proposals, OT-MPC refines candidates toward nearby promising samples while coordinating updates across the ensemble to maintain coverage of the solution space. We derive closed-form, gradient-free updates via the Sinkhorn algorithm, enabling real-time performance. Experiments on navigation, manipulation, and locomotion tasks demonstrate improved success rates over existing methods.

Vincent Pacelli, Akash Ratheesh, Evangelos A. Theodorou

Autonomous Control and Decision Systems Laboratory Georgia Institute of Technology

Robotic ControlNonlinear MPCModel Predictive ControlOptimal ControlOptimal Transport
AskPDF
May 3, 2026

Optimizing Trajectory-Trees in Belief Space: An Application from Model Predictive Control to Task and Motion Planning

This paper explores the benefits of computing arborescent trajectories (trajectory-trees) instead of commonly used sequential trajectories for partially observable robotic planning problems. In such environments, a robot infers knowledge from observations, and the optimal course of action depends on these observations. \revise{Trajectory-trees, optimized in belief space, naturally capture this dependency by branching where the belief state is expected to evolve into multiple distinct scenarios, such as upon receiving an observation. Unlike sequential trajectories, which model a single forward evolution of the system, trajectory-trees capture multiple possible contingencies.} First, we focus on Model Predictive Control (MPC) and demonstrate the benefits of planning tree-like trajectories. We formulate the control problem as the optimization of a tree with a single branching (PO-MPC). This improves performance by reducing control costs through more informed planning. To satisfy the real-time constraints of MPC, we develop an optimization algorithm called Distributed Augmented Lagrangian (D-AuLa), which leverages the decomposability of the PO-MPC formulation to parallelize and accelerate the optimization. We apply the method to both linear and non-linear MPC problems using autonomous driving examples. Second, we address Task And Motion Planning (TAMP), and introduce a planner (PO-LGP) reasoning on decision trees at task level, and trajectory-trees at motion-planning level. This approach builds upon the Logic-Geometric-Programming Framework (LGP) and extends it to partially observable problems. The experiments show the method's applicability to problems with a small belief state size, and scales to larger problems by optimizing explorative policies, which are used as macro-actions in an overarching task plan.

Camille Phiquepal, Marc Toussaint

Learning and Intelligent Systems Lab (LIS), TU Berlin, Germany

Belief-Space PlanningModel Predictive ControlMotion PlanningOptimal Control
AskPDF
Apr 29, 2026

Learning to Spend: Model Predictive Control for Budgeting under Non-Stationary Returns

We study finite-horizon budget allocation as a closed-loop economic control problem and evaluate receding-horizon Model Predictive Control (MPC) relative to reactive budgeting policies. Budgets are allocated periodically under execution noise and operational constraints, while return efficiency may evolve over time. Using a controlled simulation framework motivated by digital marketing, we compare reactive pacing to MPC across environments with increasing degrees of non-stationarity. Our results show that non-stationarity alone does not justify predictive control. When return dynamics are stationary or evolve through unpredictable stochastic drift, MPC offers no systematic advantage over reactive baselines. By contrast, when return efficiency exhibits predictable structure over the planning horizon, that is captured through an underlying model, MPC consistently outperforms reactive budgeting by exploiting intertemporal trade-offs.

Nilavra Pathak, Smriti Shyamal, Prasant Mhasker +1

Marketing Data Science, Expedia Group · Department of Chemical Engineering, McMaster University

Stochastic Optimal ControlModel Predictive ControlOptimal ControlDecision-Making under Uncertainty
AskPDF
Apr 29, 2026

Uncertainty-Aware Predictive Safety Filters for Probabilistic Neural Network Dynamics

Predictive safety filters (PSFs) leverage model predictive control to enforce constraint satisfaction during deep reinforcement learning (RL) exploration, yet their reliance on first-principles models or Gaussian processes limits scalability and broader applicability. Meanwhile, model-based RL (MBRL) methods routinely employ probabilistic ensemble (PE) neural networks to capture complex, high-dimensional dynamics from data with minimal prior knowledge. However, existing attempts to integrate PEs into PSFs lack rigorous uncertainty quantification. We introduce the Uncertainty-Aware Predictive Safety Filter (UPSi), a PSF that provides rigorous safety predictions using PE dynamics models by formulating future outcomes as reachable sets. UPSi introduces an explicit certainty constraint that prevents model exploitation and integrates seamlessly into common MBRL frameworks. We evaluate UPSi within Dyna-style MBRL on standard safe RL benchmarks and report substantial improvements in exploration safety over prior neural network PSFs while maintaining performance on par with standard MBRL. UPSi bridges the gap between the scalability and generality of modern MBRL and the safety guarantees of predictive safety filters.

Bernd Frauenknecht, Lukas Kesper, Daniel Mayfrank +2

Institute for Data Science in Mechanical Engineering (DSME), RWTH Aachen University · Institute of Climate and Energy Systems (ICE), Energy Systems Engineering (ICE-1), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH

Uncertainty QuantificationModel Predictive ControlSafe RLModel-Based RL
AskPDF
Apr 28, 2026

Sensitivity-Based Tube NMPC for Cooperative Aerial Structures Under Parametric Uncertainty

This paper presents a sensitivity-based tube Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) framework for cooperative aerial chains under bounded parametric uncertainty. We consider a planar two-vehicle chain connected by rigid links, modeled with input-rate actuation to enforce slew-rate and magnitude limits on thrust and torque. Robustness to uncertainty in link mass, length, and inertia is achieved by propagating first-order parametric state sensitivities along the horizon and using them to compute online constraint-tightening margins. We robustify an inter-link separation constraint, implemented via a smooth cosine embedding, and thrust-magnitude bounds. The method is implemented in MATLAB and evaluated with boundary-hugging maneuvers and Monte-Carlo uncertainty sampling. Results show improved constraint margins under uncertainty with tracking performance comparable to nominal NMPC.

Giuseppe Silano, Quentin Sablé, Marco Tognon +2

Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico S.p.A., Milan, Italy, and Czech Technical University, Prague, Czechia · University of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands · University of Rennes, CNRS, Inria, IRISA, 35042, France +2

Aerial RoboticsNonlinear MPCRobust ControlMulti-Robot CoordinationModel Predictive Control
AskPDF
Apr 27, 2026

Exploiting Differential Flatness for Efficient Learning-based Model Predictive Control of Constrained Multi-Input Control Affine Systems

Learning-based control techniques use data from past trajectories to control systems with uncertain dynamics. However, learning-based controllers are often computationally inefficient, limiting their practicality. To address this limitation, we propose a learning-based controller that exploits differential flatness, a property of many robotic systems. Recent research on using flatness for learning-based control either is limited in that it (i) ignores input constraints, (ii) applies only to single-input systems, or (iii) is tailored to specific platforms. In contrast, our approach uses a system extension and block-diagonal cost formulation to control general multi-input, nonlinear, affine systems. Furthermore, it satisfies input and half-space flat state constraints and guarantees probabilistic Lyapunov decrease using only two sequential convex optimizations. We show that our approach performs similarly to, but is multiple times more efficient than, a Gaussian process model predictive controller in simulation, and achieves competitive tracking in real hardware experiments.

Tobias A. Farger, Adam W. Hall, Angela P. Schoellig

Learning Systems and Robotics Lab at the Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany. · Learning Systems and Robotics Lab at the University of Toronto Institute for Aerospace Studies (UTIAS) and the Vector Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Toronto, Canada

Nonlinear MPCModel Predictive ControlDifferential Flatness
AskPDF