Random Forest

Old-growth forests develop over centuries under minimal anthropogenic disturbance, producing structurally complex and biodiverse stands. In Europe, protecting them requires mapping that is accurate for individual forest parcels yet deployable continent-wide. Geospatial foundation model (GFM) embeddings enable label-scarce land classification, but their value for old-growth detection remains unknown. Here, we map old-growth forests across 211,893 ha of Romania's Southern Carpathians, a beech-spruce landscape typical of the Alpine Biogeographic Region. We construct high-confidence, expert-informed reference labels for old-growth and non-old-growth parcels. We add AlphaEarth, TESSERA v2 and Sentinel-1/2 features to a common baseline of topographic and human-access predictors, then compare them under spatially blocked validation with and without 10 km train-test buffers to limit residual autocorrelation. With buffering, GFM and Sentinel-1/2 predictors increase precision-recall AUC by 0.21-0.25 [95% CIs: 0.15-0.34] relative to baseline, indicating spectral data contain a spatially robust old-growth signal. With a PR-AUC of 0.84 [0.79-0.88], TESSERA outperforms Sentinel-1/2 (+0.08 [+0.05 to +0.11]) and AlphaEarth (+0.08 [+0.04 to +0.12]) under unbuffered spatial validation. At a 10 km buffer, however, this advantage narrows to +0.04 [-0.01 to +0.11] and +0.03 [-0.04 to +0.10], intervals consistent with no difference. At 10 m resolution, convolutional neural networks add no benefit over pixel-based XGBoost. Comparisons with four national- and continental-scale products show the importance of non-old-growth labels, and reveal 81% agreement between our predictions and a field-calibrated map. We conclude that buffered spatial validation is vital when transferring old-growth detection models to unseen landscapes, and provide our labels and predictions for future work.

In various fields, such as medicine and marketing, accurately predicting individual treatment effects holds significant promise. However, achieving reliable predictions alone is often insufficient for making informed decisions; it is equally important to understand why the treatment effect is higher for some individuals than for others. To address this two-fold challenge of prediction and interpretation, we introduce an algorithm based on decision trees and random forests for estimating individual treatment effects. Our algorithm is simple: it operates exactly like a standard random forest, but with a different splitting criterion, and requires no additional workarounds such as double machine learning or orthogonalization as used in Generalized random forests. It handles observational studies with varying treatment propensities without requiring separate estimation of the full propensity function. This is achieved by combining two splitting criteria---one targeting heterogeneity in the treatment effect, the other targeting bias correction for the average treatment effect---which together improve split point selection and automatically distinguish confounders from features responsible for heterogeneity. As a result, interpretation follows directly from the fitted tree structure itself, that is, from which features the trees split on and with which split statistics, without requiring separate post-hoc analysis. For the theoretical analysis of this algorithm, we consider a change point model with step functions for potential outcomes and treatment propensity and provide insights into the theoretical underpinnings of our approach. Simulation studies show that our simple algorithm achieves comparable, and often better, prediction accuracy than existing methods, while substantially improving interpretability.

Goldwasser et al. showed that undetectable backdoors can be planted in machine learning models trained with the Random Fourier Features (RFF) algorithm, under a hardness assumption tied to the Continuous Learning With Errors (CLWE) problem. Under standard cryptographic assumptions, even a full white-box audit of a model's weights cannot detect this class of backdoor. The construction is stated in terms of cryptographic reductions and probabilistic lemmas, without a reference implementation, and relies on secondary machinery such as the Sparse Gaussian Pancakes distribution and a homogeneous CLWE conditional density. Its realizability in ordinary numerical code is not obvious from the paper alone. This paper implements the white-box CLWE-RFF backdoor construction end to end using only numpy and scipy, to test whether this threat is realizable with commodity scientific-computing tools or requires specialized cryptographic infrastructure. We give two samplers for the core $GP_d(b_k)$ distribution. The first is a rejection-sampling proxy. The second is an exact closed-form sampler derived from the homogeneous CLWE density and verified against its own analytic form. Using this implementation, we run statistical indistinguishability tests, covering both weight-space and functional black-box comparisons. We find no evidence of detectable difference between backdoored and clean models across a range of sparsity ratios $ρ= d_{\text{sparse}}/D$. We report which parts of the construction were straightforward to realize, which required derivation not spelled out in the paper. We also highlight which parts we did not attempt to reproduce, including the underlying lattice hardness reduction. We see this work as a contribution to understanding the practical realizability of the Goldwasser white-box CLWE core, not as a new theoretical result.

Reliable, low-latency perception is crucial for Formula Student Driverless vehicles, yet many existing pipelines rely on deep learning and multi-sensor fusion, often requiring GPU acceleration. This paper presents a lightweight LiDAR-only perception pipeline tailored for CPU execution, combining ground removal, IMU-based motion compensation, DBSCAN clustering, and geometric feature-based Random Forest classification. Feature importance analysis reduced the model input from 12 to 7 features while preserving performance. Evaluated on 2,371 labeled clusters collected from real FSD events, the pipeline achieves an F1-score of 98.33% and an end-to-end runtime of 3.13 ms on CPU-only hardware. The released dataset, labeling tool, and trained models provide a practical and reproducible baseline for other resource-constrained autonomous racing teams.

With the existing digital mental health tools specifically developed for Western settings, Pakistani students are exposed to a uniquely compounded stress situation in their university that includes academic, financial, familial, and relational stressors, which have become a serious concern for academic and psychological development of students in Pakistani universities. This paper introduces a new, AI-driven and culturally sensitive stress detection and wellness support system that is tailored to the context of Pakistani university students. The system is based on a machine learning model called Random Forest which is trained using a validated student stress data set of 1100 responses on 20 features from psychological, physiological, academic, environmental and social aspects, with an accuracy of 89.09% and a macro F1-score of 0.89, in three stress severity levels. The classification outputs are passed on to an open-source large language model through OpenRouter API, where an appropriately crafted system prompt, culturally aware, gives the model a conversation about wellness, in English, Urdu and Roman Urdu. The second most predictive stress factor in this population identified by feature importance analysis was teacher-student relationship, which is a culturally important stress factor highlighting the need for region-aware mental health systems. Future research will involve primary data collection from students at various academic levels of Pakistani Universities with the validated DASS-21 instrument focusing on the students who are moving from FSc to undergraduate studies, which is a time of being psychologically vulnerable which is under-researched.

We provide methods for calculating the robustness of the predictions of two types of generative classifiers whose underlying distribution is a Probabilistic Graphical Model (PGM): naive Bayes classifiers and generative forests (a probabilistic extension of random forests). Following the paradigm of robustness quantification, we define the robustness of a prediction as the extent to which the distribution of the classifier can be perturbed without changing this prediction. We consider perturbations obtained by varying the local models of the PGMs within general neighborhoods and focus in particular on epsilon-contamination, total variation distance and chi-squared divergence balls. We test our methods on benchmark datasets, demonstrate that the robustness value of a prediction serves as an indicator for its trustworthiness and compare our approach with other such indicators.

3D reconstruction typically strives for geometric fidelity or visual plausibility. Radio frequency digital twins (RFDT) are instead judged by whether communication channels behave in them as they do in the real world. RFDTs promise site-specific channel prediction but current practice forces a choice between coarse automated scenes and hand-built, measurement-calibrated models that take weeks to construct per-site. We present KODAMA, an automated pipeline that reconstructs ray tracing-ready RFDTs at city scale from off-the-shelf geospatial data alone: aerial imagery, LiDAR, and photogrammetry yield terrain and watertight building meshes, while exposure-weighted multi-view fusion of street-level imagery recovers façade relief, electromagnetic materials, and clutter---all without site visits or calibration. Across three sites spanning 3.6 to 28 GHz, KODAMA's uncalibrated predictions achieve single-digit RMSE, reducing point-to-point error by up to 5.35 dB over automated baselines and coming within 0.22 dB of a measurement-calibrated, hand-built RFDT.

We map tree species across Denmark using National Forest Inventory plots and EO data, while evaluating the potential of foundation models for large-scale forest characterization. We compare two alternative input representations for tree species classification: (i) manually engineered spectral-temporal features (STF) derived from multi-temporal Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 observations, and (ii) embeddings generated by the EO FMs TESSERA and AlphaEarth. Both representations are complemented with canopy height information. Random forest, XGBoost, and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) classifiers are evaluated for all input representations, with separate assessments for pure and mixed forest stands. The STF-based MLP achieves the highest classification performance, yielding macro F1 scores of 0.843 and 0.653 for pure and mixed stands, respectively. The MLP trained on TESSERA embeddings delivers competitive performance for pure stands, achieving results within 1.1 percentage points of the best-performing model. TESSERA consistently outperforms STF-based models when fewer than approximately 25% of training plots are available, demonstrating a substantial advantage under limited training data. Multi-year observations systematically improve classification accuracy relative to single-year inputs, while ablation experiments reveal the complementary contributions of Sentinel-1 backscatter, spectral indices, and canopy height data. The best-performing model is subsequently applied at the national scale to generate a 10 m tree species map of Denmark. Area-adjusted validation indicates an overall map accuracy of 79.9%. The resulting map, released as an open-access product, is the first high-resolution national tree species map of Denmark and provides a valuable resource for forest monitoring, ecological research, and land management applications.

Accurate large-scale wildfire spread modelling requires models that capture both the environmental conditions associated with fire occurrence and the local dynamics of fire propagation. We propose a three-stage framework that combines a Random Forest (RF) model with a cellular automaton (CA). First, an RF model trained on the 2021 Canadian fire season estimates daily pixel-level fire-occurrence probabilities. Second, quantile gradient boosting models provide optional spread-rate priors for sensitivity analysis. Third, an RF-informed CA combines the RF probability layer with neighbourhood-driven spread on a 5 km grid. The RF model achieved AUC values of 0.725--0.795 on the 2022--2024 datasets, while the RF-informed CA achieved substantially higher spatial overlap than the evaluated CA-only baselines in the 2023 simulation. A higher-resolution simulation provides an additional qualitative assessment of local spatial errors. These results suggest that combining RF-derived probabilities with local CA spread can improve large-scale wildfire simulations under the tested conditions.

Clinical data sources such as electronic health records and wearable sensors record patient status repeatedly over follow-up, often at irregular times and on different schedules for different measurements. These data create opportunities for continuously updated, individualized risk prediction. Existing approaches, however, often simplify the temporal structure for model fitting. We introduce Random Hazard Forests (RHF), a survival tree ensemble that estimates how a patient's hazard changes in continuous time as new measurements become available. The method formulates the estimation problem directly through a nonparametric hazard likelihood for predictable covariate processes. An efficient working model guides tree construction, after which flexible time-varying hazards are estimated for each terminal node. Given any predictable covariate path, each tree follows the path through its terminal nodes over time and assembles the corresponding node-level hazards into a trajectory. Averaging these trajectories across trees yields the pathwise hazard estimate. Because routing at each time uses only the covariate state available immediately beforehand, the construction accommodates internal longitudinal covariates without lookahead. Simulations and an intensive care application show that the forest accurately estimates changing risk under irregular and asynchronous covariate updates.

Digital-twin calibration requires interaction data that is expensive to collect. We study two acquisition decisions: which trajectories to generate, and when to spend a limited budget on privileged parameter measurements. Our framework couples an excitation-oriented reinforcement learning controller, a recurrent parameter estimator with predictive uncertainty, and a budgeted query policy. In Pendulum, a Random Forest diagnostic recovers gravity only weakly from task-oriented trajectories and does not recover mass or length, while a GRU trained on excitation-oriented trajectories reaches a mean absolute error of 0.0066 with no queries. We then withdraw continuous oracle access partway through an episode, so that the twin must run on the estimator's output for the remainder. The estimator-plus-policy pipeline achieves a terminal error of 0.0092 under a three-query budget, against 0.2031 for an uncalibrated twin. In partially observable Waterworld, five controllers produce different observed error profiles across three hidden parameters, and an estimator trained on a five-controller mixture reaches online normalized errors of roughly 4-5%. These exploratory case studies are not controlled ablations, but they motivate treating trajectory design and query allocation as explicit design variables in data-scarce calibration.

Heterogeneous RF sensing differs substantially in feature structure, spatial layout, and temporal scale, making existing models difficult to reuse across devices, environments, and RF modalities. We propose FSTC-Encoder, which unifies heterogeneous RF representation learning through feature, spatial, and temporal correlation modeling. Structure-aware feature encoding accommodates different signal structures, set-based spatial encoding aggregates variable observations, and hierarchical temporal encoding jointly captures local variations and long-range dependencies. Across sensing tasks and modalities, FSTC-Encoder retains the same spatial--temporal backbone architecture while varying only the feature configuration and task head. Across Widar3.0, CSI-Bench, and XRF55, FSTC-Encoder achieves 92.15% mean Accuracy under multi-factor cross-domain protocols, ranks first on three of four additional sensing tasks, remains consistently strong across WiFi, millimeter-wave radar, and RFID, and reduces the cross-modality performance gap from 18.85% to 12.93% through cross-RF learning. These results demonstrate that FSTC-Encoder achieves high domain robustness, task generality, and modality extensibility.

The current state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep randomized neural networks, such as deep Random Vector Functional Link (dRVFL) and ensemble deep RVFL (edRVFL), treat all training samples uniformly, which limits their robustness and effectiveness when applied to real-world datasets containing noise and outliers. Furthermore, the propagation of contaminated features across hidden layers negatively influences the decision-making capability of these models. To overcome these limitations, we propose intuitionistic fuzzy dRVFL (IF-dRVFL) and intuitionistic fuzzy edRVFL (IF-edRVFL) frameworks that enhance model robustness. The proposed models unify intuitionistic fuzzy theory to exploit sample neighborhood information in the kernel space by jointly considering membership and non-membership degrees for each sample. Membership degrees are computed based on the distance of samples from their respective class centroids, while non-membership degrees quantify sample heterogeneity within local neighborhoods. These measures are employed to assign adaptive weights to training samples, enabling effective discrimination among clean, noisy, and outlier data points. Extensive experiments conducted on UCI and KEEL benchmark datasets, with and without the presence of Gaussian noise, demonstrate the superiority of the proposed IF-dRVFL and IF-edRVFL models over existing SOTA fuzzy and non-fuzzy approaches. The source code is available at https://github.com/mtanveer1/IF-edRVFL.

This work presents a novel attention-based framework for estimating the Individual Probability of Treatment Benefit (IPTB) in survival analysis contexts. The proposed model, called Surv-IPTB, directly quantifies the probability that a specific patient will experience extended survival time under treatment versus control. We reformulate IPTB estimation as a binary classification problem, leveraging pairwise patient comparisons across treatment and control cohorts. The framework incorporates a principled handling of right-censored observations through imprecise probability representations, where uncertain treatment effects are characterized by interval-valued probabilities. An attention mechanism with learnable query-key transformations enables flexible, data-driven aggregation of pairwise comparisons, while simultaneously learning soft class probabilities for censored cases. Through extensive experiments on synthetic datasets with complex nonlinear structures, including spiral, bell-shaped, and circular feature spaces, we demonstrate that our approach maintains robust performance across varying censoring rates and treatment effect strengths. The model consistently outperforms meta-learner baselines (T-learner and S-learner) equipped with random survival forests, Cox proportional hazards, and Beran estimators, particularly in challenging nonlinear scenarios where conventional methods exhibit significant degradation. The results establish the proposed attention-based framework as a scalable and statistically principled solution for personalized treatment benefit assessment in survival settings. The code implementing the model is publicly available.

The rapid advancement of modern technology has led to a significant increase in the use of smart devices, such as smartphones and tablets, resulting in the widespread adoption of mobile applications. Although applications are required to undergo malware screening before being published on official app stores, many malicious applications successfully evade detection by concealing sophisticated malware variants. These malicious behaviors are often activated only during runtime, making them difficult to identify through conventional static analysis. As a result, malware may remain undetected until after installation, potentially causing irreversible damage to users and their devices. This study presents a real-time Android malware detection framework that analyzes application behavior to accurately identify and classify complex malware. The proposed approach employs a hybrid dynamic analysis technique to distinguish malicious applications from benign ones. After preprocessing and filtering the collected dataset, the applications are classified using multiple machine learning algorithms. A comprehensive performance evaluation is conducted to compare the effectiveness of different classification techniques in terms of detection accuracy and execution time. Experimental results demonstrate that a hybrid model combining Random Forest and a Multilayer Perceptron achieves the best overall performance, attaining an accuracy of 97.5% with an execution time of 22.945 seconds. The proposed framework can enhance mobile device security by enabling timely detection of malicious applications and reducing the risk of cyberattacks.

Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) networks are hard to protect: devices are heterogeneous, computing resources are scarce, and traffic must be analyzed in real time. We present an intrusion detection system that addresses these constraints through feature selection. A Pearson correlation filter first removes redundant attributes; a hybrid strategy then combines model-based feature importance with SHAP attribution to pick a compact subset, on which we train Random Forest and LightGBM classifiers. SHAP and LIME explain what each retained feature contributes to the decisions. On CIC-IoMT 2024 and CIC-IDS 2017, the method cuts the feature space by up to 88% - from 40 to as few as 5 features - and accuracy and F1-score stay within a few points of models trained on all features. Compact, interpretable detectors of this kind are practical candidates for deployment on resource-limited medical networks.

Double Machine Learning (DML) is a popular approach for treatment effect estimation in various settings, which allows a wide range of flexible machine learning methods to be used for nuisance parameter estimation while preserving valid inference. In practice, however, applied researchers must choose among many machine learning algorithms for nuisance models, and the impact of this choice on the variance estimation of DML is not well characterized. We conduct a comprehensive simulation study to compare the coverage probability of DML confidence intervals across different machine learning algorithms. In this study, we compare (1) analytical confidence intervals derived by DML theory versus (2) bootstrap confidence interval. We use a set of learners including ordinary least squares, LASSO, Random Forest, LightGBM, and Neural Networks under different data generation settings. We evaluate the performance across difference settings by bias, confidence interval width, and most importantly, coverage probability. Our results show substantial variability in coverage performance across analytical and bootstrap confidence intervals, highlighting that learner choice plays a critical role in reliable DML inference. Surprisingly, we find that in many settings, when sample size increases, the coverage probability of both DML analytical and bootstrap confidence interval decreases. We further investigate coverage probabilities using a real dataset on rural urban differences among U.S. counties. The real data analysis discovers that (1) the model performance still varies by the learner choices and (2) greater rurality has a statistically significant increasing effect on county level obesity prevalence.

We study feature bagging through the lens of algorithmic stability. Feature bagging is an ensemble strategy that aggregates base learners trained on randomly subsampled feature subsets, possibly in a data-dependent manner. We introduce feature instability (FI), the feature-axis analogue of instance instability (II), which measures sensitivity to removing a single feature. Smaller values of II or FI correspond to stronger stability, and our experiments show that FI captures generalization-relevant information complementary to II. Within this framework, we analyze feature bagging in both a parametric linear model and a model-free setting inspired by recursive feature subsampling in random forests. In both settings, we establish formal guarantees showing that feature bagging improves the relevant stability relative to its non-bagged counterpart, with larger improvements under more aggressive subsampling. We further show that a modest number of bagging rounds is sufficient to approach the infinite-bagging stability level.

Swarm Learning is a decentralized collaborative learning mechanism that allows multiple organizations to train a shared model without central coordination or direct data sharing. In typical horizontal Swarm Learning, datasets across sites are usually assumed to share the same feature set. However, in real-world applications, sites often have partially overlapping features because measurements, protocols, and available covariates differ across sites. This feature heterogeneity creates a practical issue for machine learning algorithms such as Random Forests. Specifically, when decision trees are pooled into a global Random Forest, inference at a given site can become ill-defined if a traversal encounters a split on a feature that is not available locally, often forcing organizations to discard site-specific variables upfront. In this paper, we address feature heterogeneity in Swarm Learning with Random Forests under partially overlapping feature spaces. We propose several deterministic and probabilistic inference-time strategies that resolve such missing splits without restricting training to the intersection of features. We evaluate the methods on nine datasets and demonstrate that they outperform both the intersection baseline and locally trained models across a broad range of scenarios.

Column annotation (CA), including column type annotation (CTA) and column property annotation (CPA), aims to identify the meanings of table columns and the semantic relationships among them. Recent CA methods usually use various neural models to learn column representations and directly map them to label categories, thereby (1) sacrificing model interpretability and adaptivity, and (2) overlooking rich label semantics and ultimately limiting accuracy. To address these limitations, we propose SymCA, an LLM-empowered interpretable CA framework that materializes column annotation as a global-to-local symbolic decision process. SymCA consists of two components: (1) global skeleton induction, which constructs a semantic skeleton over the label space, and (2) local substrate evolution, which evolves predictive substrates within the skeleton. Specifically, to exploit label semantics while preserving an interpretable decision process, the global skeleton induction module leverages LLMs to generate candidate hypernym-inspired tree-structured semantic skeletons and employs a Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR)-based consensus strategy to select a robust skeleton against generation variance. Since different internal nodes require different evidence to distinguish among their child nodes, the local substrate evolution module materializes each internal node as an executable and evolvable predictive substrate. Over multiple evolution rounds, each substrate trains an interpretable random forest classifier with the current operator set, leverages the LLM to propose node-specific operator modifications, and uses an exploration-exploitation strategy to prioritize promising substrates. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SymCA is accurate, robust, and interpretable, outperforming the strongest baselines by an average of 6.42% in Micro-F1 and 11.03% in Macro-F1.

Radio Frequency Fingerprinting (RFFP) has emerged as a promising approach for device authentication by exploiting hardware-specific impairments embedded in transmitted signals. Yet existing methods largely overlook a major drawback: RFFP sensitivity to temperature--a critical factor influenced by both internal and environmental conditions--which can significantly alter device signatures and degrade classification performance. In this paper, we propose a novel temperature-aware RFFP framework that explicitly incorporates device temperature information into the learning process to improve robustness and generalization. We evaluate the proposed method on a real-world Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) dataset collected across multiple devices and environmental conditions. Experimental results demonstrate that temperature-aware modeling consistently outperforms other temperature mitigation baselines, achieving significant improvements in classification accuracy, particularly under unseen temperature and environmental conditions.

Distributional random forests replace mean-based CART splitting with criteria that compare the full conditional response distribution in candidate children. We implement and systematically study a family of such criteria inside a single honest-forest implementation: isotropic random-Fourier-feature maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), an anisotropic diagonal-bandwidth variant, an adaptive per-split frequency-selection variant, and a non-kernel sliced-Wasserstein criterion, together with post-hoc kernel-mean shrinkage of the forest weights. Using paired-seed comparisons across synthetic quantile mechanisms, real univariate benchmarks, a California-housing subsample curve, and multivariate synthetic and real responses, we characterize where each extension pays. Three findings recur. First, among distributional criteria ordinary isotropic MMD is already close to best in class: the anisotropic, adaptive-frequency, and sliced-Wasserstein extensions, and post-hoc shrinkage, do not systematically improve on it. Second, on scalar tabular regression mean-based CART splitting remains the robust default and wins many cells. Third, multivariate responses are the regime where distributional splitting clearly earns its keep, most sharply on a pure-dependence copula where the energy score separates the criteria even though marginal CRPS does not. The evidence supports a simple allocation story: distributional splitting helps only when non-location structure is both present and estimable; otherwise it dilutes split-selection power away from the mean. All criteria, the honest forest, and the paired-comparison harness are implemented in the open-source \texttt{drforest} library, whose Rust-backed split search makes broad criterion sweeps inexpensive.

In this paper, we propose a method for predicting bone volume fraction (BVF) and fracture position by constructing a random forest model based on multichannel S-parameters. A nine-antenna microwave scanning system is designed and fabricated to acquire the multichannel S-parameter data. Bone-mimicking phantoms are developed, and corresponding experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Both synthetic and experimental results demonstrate the validity of the method.

Longitudinal studies often collect data at sparse, irregular, and unequally spaced time points. Such heterogeneity is often driven by subject-specific covariates, yet existing methods have been restricted to a scalar endpoint value, completely neglecting the underlying response trajectories. We propose a novel Longitudinal Random Forest (LRF) framework that leverages tree-based ensemble machine learning with adaptive node-wise longitudinal trajectory estimation. The LRF framework makes five methodological contributions. it captures each subject's individual response trajectory while simultaneously accommodating within-node correlation, between-node heterogeneity, and nonlinear and interactive covariate effects. It introduces a novel trajectory-based splitting criterion that maximizes trajectory separation while incorporating a size-weighted penalty; it provides two variants, Principal Analysis by Conditional Expectation (LRF-PACE) and adaptive linear mixed-effects models (LRF-adaptiveLMM), which employ nonparametric and semiparametric node-wise smoothers, respectively, while learning covariate effects in a data-driven manner. It provides a comprehensive interpretation of covariates using both the classical trajectory-based permutation variable importance measure (PVIM) and a newly proposed finite-way interaction frequency count, and it not only predicts entire trajectories for new subjects but also forecasts future trajectories for existing subjects. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that LRF achieves superior performance over several competing methods, even under severe sparsity. The practical significance of the LRF framework lies in its ability to address five important clinical questions.

Conventional modeling approaches for LiDAR-based above-ground biomass (AGB) estimation rely on discrete plot-level inventory aggregates. This methodology introduces boundary-effect uncertainties that may severely degrade model performance within small field plots. To solve this limitation, we evaluate a Horizontal Biomass Distribution (HBD) reference mapped continuously from Quantitative Structure Models (QSMs). We trained a sparse 3D U-Net on simulated broadleaved forest structures using three AGB reference types: a standard forest inventory (FI) plot-level aggregate, an edge-effect-free QSM plot-level aggregate, and a continuous HBD mapping. Evaluating training plot sizes scaling from 100 to 2500 $m^2$ , QSM-based models systematically outperformed FI approaches at small plot sizes. Specifically, for 100 $m^2$ plots, the HBD reference reduced the relative root mean square error (RRMSE) by 16.84 $\pm$ 4.37 % and increased $R^2$ by 0.22 $\pm$ 0.05 against the FI baseline. By replacing plot level aggregates with HBDs as AGB reference, this methodology corrects for edge-effects and shows that using an HBD-based reference enhances model performance for small plot sizes.

Conventional traction control architectures intervene only after the adhesion limit of a tire has already been breached. This paper investigates whether Rolling Split Conformal Prediction , monitoring the volatility of non-conformity residuals from a per-driver Random Forest model of expected slip behavior , can serve as a statistically grounded pre-incident warning signal, ahead of gross traction loss. Unlike an earlier internal draft of this work, the evaluation reported here corrects a confound in the slip proxy (vehicle speed is included as an explicit model feature, not left implicit in the target's denominator), uses every racing lap for each driver rather than only the fastest lap, and is scored against real, timestamped incident labels extracted from FIA Race Control Messages and track-limits lap deletions rather than narrated post-hoc. The result is negative: across 19 drivers and 55,563 test-phase telemetry samples, the rolling-volatility detector achieves a mean precision of essentially 0.0 and mean recall of 0.0 against 14 ground-truth incidents, while flagging on average 15.3% of all samples as anomalous , too high a false-alarm rate for any early-warning use. A static 95th-percentile threshold baseline performs no better in any way that would justify the added complexity of the conformal-volatility formulation. Residual autocorrelation diagnostics show the split-conformal exchangeability assumption is violated for every driver (Ljung-Box p < 0.001, n = 19/19), which is one plausible driver of the high false-alarm rate. We report this as a methodologically rigorous negative finding, diagnose its likely causes, and outline what a genuinely predictive version of this approach would require.

Background. Labeled data for security classification is scarce. Semi-supervised learning (SSL) propagates labels from a small labeled pool to larger unlabeled pools. Yet security applications often use SSL as a black box: default parameters, a fixed classifier, and no handling of pseudo-label-induced class imbalance. Aims. Recent work reports sizeable gains from optimizing SSL pipelines via joint search, AutoML, or per-component tuning. These gains are hard to attribute: they may reflect useful SSL-classifier interactions, or mostly from simply tuning the downstream classifier. We disentangle these effects for binary tabular security data with classical SSL and tree-based classifiers. Method. We build SemiScope as an analysis instrument, not a deployment recommendation. It uses Bayesian Optimization to jointly tune SSL settings, confidence filtering, oversampling, and the classifier. The key control, Tuned-Clf, fixes SSL to defaults but gets the same 100-trial classifier budget and validation-set threshold tuning as SemiScope. At 10% labels, we compare them with paired TOST using a +/-1.0 g-measure smallest effect of interest. Results. SemiScope beats every default SSL baseline on all five datasets, improving over the strongest by 0.7-12.7 points. Under the equal-budget control, Tuned-Clf is statistically equivalent to the full pipeline on 4 of 5 datasets; Phishing is inconclusive. Classifier HPO alone recovers a median 86% of SemiScope's gain over Default Self-Training (ST) + Random Forest (RF). Conclusions. The reusable contribution is the decomposition protocol. A simpler recipe suffices: use Self-Training, tune the classifier with Bayesian Optimization, and tune the decision threshold on validation data. It reaches within 1 g-measure of Supervised RF at 20-30% labels on four datasets and 40% on Drebin, at the same or lower label rate than Default ST + RF on every dataset.

Forest attributes are essential for national-scale resource monitoring. Airborne LiDAR metrics are among the auxiliary variables most strongly correlated with forest attributes used in National Forest Inventory (NFI) estimates. However, producing wall-to-wall predictions remains challenging when LiDAR data are acquired under heterogeneous conditions. As national LiDAR programs expand across Europe, variability in sensors, flight parameters, seasons, and scan angles limits the robustness of existing models, which are often calibrated for local conditions. We present FLORA (Forest LiDAR Octree Regression with Auxiliary Data), a deep learning framework that predicts six forest attributes: dominant height, total volume, deciduous volume, coniferous volume, basal area, and stem density from heterogeneous LiDAR point clouds. FLORA combines an octree-based backbone with ecological and spatiotemporal auxiliary variables through a late-fusion gating mechanism. Models are trained and evaluated on 32,052 National Forest Inventory plots across mainland France using data from the French LiDAR HD program. A single model trained on both leaf-on and leaf-off acquisitions outperforms season-specific models and improves cross-season robustness. Auxiliary variables provide modest overall gains but contribute more strongly to species-specific volume prediction. FLORA achieves an rRMSE of about 12.3% (R2 = 0.88) for dominant height and 39% (R2 = 0.74) for total volume, providing a robust baseline for large-scale forest attribute estimation from heterogeneous national LiDAR programs.

The number of trees is a central computational parameter in Random Forests: increasing it reduces finite-ensemble variability but increases training and prediction cost. Plateau-based tuning adapts this parameter through local comparisons of out-of-bag scores at a geometric triplet of tree counts. After the remaining hyperparameters have stabilized, however, the central triplet point need not converge to a deterministic value; instead, it fluctuates around a stationary regime. This paper develops a stationary-distribution theory for this process. The central ensemble size $B_t$ is modeled as a birth-death Markov chain on a geometric grid, and its stationary distribution is derived through local balance. Under a leading centered folded-normal approximation, equilibrium equations are obtained for the original update rule and a symmetric modified variant, implying that the stationary center $B_*=O(\varepsilon^{-2})$ as $\varepsilon\downarrow 0$. The stationary spread is also characterized. A local Gaussian approximation and a Fokker-Planck interpretation give grid-level variance constants. After conversion to the ensemble-size scale, $σ_{B,*}=O(\varepsilon^{-2})$, while the variance is $O(\varepsilon^{-4})$. The leading relative spread is independent of $\varepsilon$ and controlled by the scale factor and update rule. These results interpret plateau-based Random Forest tuning as a stochastic process rather than a deterministic stopping rule.

In general, an ensemble classifier is more accurate than a single classifier. In this study, we propose an ensemble classifier called the kernel Fisher discriminant analysis forest (KFDA Forest), which is a tree-based ensemble method that applies KFDA. To promote diversity, bootstrap is used, and variable sets are randomly divided into K subsets. KFDA is performed on each subset to increase classification accuracy. KFDA maximizes the distance between classes while minimizing the distance within classes. KFDA can also be applied to classification problems in a nonlinear data structure using the kernel trick because it can transform the input space into a kernel feature space, commonly named a rotation, rather than performing a dimensionality reduction. Because new feature axes and KFDA projections are parallel, decision trees are used as a base classifier. To compare the proposed method with existing ensemble methods, we apply these to real datasets from the UCI and KEEL repositories.

Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, such as k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN) or random forest, eschew the ideal of true data models in favour of predictive performance. However, minimising the MSE or F-score cannot lead to unbiasedness directly, which is important in many situations such as official statistics. We study the conditions of algorithmic ML, other than the existence and knowledge of true data models, which lead to unbiased prediction or classification for a given finite population, including how the training data may be sampled from the population, how a trained prediction algorithm can be tuned to achieve unbiased prediction or classification for that population, and how the performance of out-of-sample prediction or classification can be assessed unbiasedly. The inference is based on the known probability design of samples and training sets, rather than any assumed distributions or models.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) achieve strong performance on microbiome abundance data, yet their robustness under realistic distribution shift remains poorly characterized. We introduce a benchmark that evaluates the robustness of TFMs to biologically inspired perturbations across six gut microbiome datasets spanning four disease contexts. In this in-context learning setting, models receive unperturbed support sets as context and are evaluated on perturbed query samples. To isolate robustness beyond "shortcut" features, we preserve the most discriminative taxa and apply three controlled perturbation strategies: (i) removal of high-abundance (uninformative) taxa, (ii) sparsification via increased zero-inflation, and (iii) zero-imputation via spurious non-zero injections. Our results show that protecting discriminative features is insufficient to guarantee stability under support-query shift: across datasets, all perturbations degrade model performance, with zero-imputation consistently the most harmful, indicating that corrupting global feature structure can break generalization even when key taxa are retained. Sparsification disproportionately affects TFMs relative to a classical random forest baseline, suggesting greater sensitivity to zero-inflation-type shifts. The code is publicly available at: https://github.com/UMMISCO/metagenomics-fm/.

Modern finance relies heavily on complex machine learning models to find patterns in the stock market. However, as these AI models get more complicated, they often memorize short-term market noise instead of finding companies with real, lasting value. We designed this research to test if Benjamin Graham's classic value investing rules could act as a mathematical "low-pass filter" to keep these modern models in check. We built three different sets of features - pure Graham rules, modern market factors, and a mix of both - and tested them against highly complex models (XGBoost and AutoGluon) using 20 years of S&P 500 data. By applying a strict buy-and-hold strategy over a four-year test period (March 2022 to March 2026), the results showed that more complex algorithms do not always win. While the AutoGluon model captured high returns (222.68%), it suffered a substantial 39.78% drop because it bought volatile tech stocks right before the market crashed. On the other hand, the pure Graham Random Forest achieved the highest overall return (232.13%) with much less risk (1.38 Calmar Ratio). Furthermore, the Combined Random Forest successfully mixed momentum with Graham's rules, making a 202.91% return while keeping the lowest maximum drop (34.53%) of any model tested. Ultimately, this research proves that Graham's "margin of safety" isn't outdated; it is actually a highly effective way to prevent modern AI from taking on too much risk.

Camera-trap monitoring in African tropical forests increasingly extends beyond closed-canopy interiors to riverbanks, clearings, and park edges. Among available open tools for African forest camera-trap classification, DeepForestVision is the only one providing a matched offline workflow for both photographs and videos, and previous work showed that it outperformed other available baselines on a comparable benchmark. However, it was designed for closed-canopy, ground-level forest interiors and uses a 35-class prediction space that becomes too coarse when deployments encounter arboreal primates, birds, semi-aquatic taxa, or human-associated confounders such as livestock. We present DeepForestVisionV2, an ecology-driven expansion from 35 to 64 prediction classes (61 animal classes plus human, vehicle, and blank) designed to address three recurrent deployment gradients: vertical stratification, scene openness, and anthropogenic interfaces. DeepForestVisionV2 retains the same offline workflow and is trained on 1,535,010 photographs and 243,354 videos from multi-country African tropical-forest projects. Evaluation combines a cross-country cropped-photo validation set, used to assess robustness across sites and camera-trap settings, with three held-out Uganda video benchmarks spanning the targeted gradients. On the validation set, DeepForestVisionV2 reaches 0.86 accuracy, 0.82 macro-F1, and 0.81 balanced accuracy. On the deployment benchmarks, it preserves or improves baseline accuracy despite its harder classification task, while increasing the number of identified taxa from 22 to 29 in forest-interior videos and from 4 to 9 at riverbanks. In the park-edge use case, it raises accuracy from 0.62 to 0.86 and reduces false alarms from 11 to 0. These results show that DeepForestVisionV2 materially improves field utility while preserving robustness across sites, habitats, and camera-trap settings.

This study investigates the application of machine learning models to predict exam outcomes using physiological data collected during examination sessions. Physiological stress indicators, including electrodermal activity, heart rate, and skin temperature, were analyzed to uncover their association with academic performance. A variety of machine learning approaches were employed, ranging from standard models like logistic regression, random forest, and support vector machines to more advanced architectures, including transformers, long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models. This diversity aimed to capture the complex interactions within the data effectively. A key focus was assessing the adaptability of transformers in processing numerical data and evaluating their performance in this novel context. Standard performance metrics, such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, were used to compare model efficacy. The experimental results demonstrate that while deep learning models generally excel at capturing complex relationships in physiological data, simpler models like random forests can sometimes achieve superior performance while offering computational efficiency and interpretability. Furthermore, transformers demonstrated notable versatility, showcasing performances comparable to those of the LSTM and GRU models. This research underscores the importance of experimenting with a broad class of models that align with the objectives of the problem at hand, balancing precision, efficiency, and interpretability. By elucidating the relationships between physiological signals and academic performance, this study contributes to understanding stressors affecting students' mental health. It further promotes leveraging physiological data to enhance student well-being and academic outcomes.

Anomaly detection in multivariate time series is challenged by four structurally distinct anomaly types -- point (isolated spikes), distributional (level shifts), temporal (rhythm changes), and collective (inter-sensor correlation breakdowns) -- each requiring different feature representations. Most unsupervised methods target only one or two types and provide limited interpretability. We present CRAFTIIF (Cross-Resolution Analytic Four-Type Interpretable Isolation Forest), a fully unsupervised framework targeting all four types without dataset-specific tuning. CRAFTIIF generates K=500 random analytic wavelet feature draws across four families (Morlet, DOG, Haar, Coiflet), each targeting a specific anomaly type, feeding five structured Isolation Forests -- one per type plus a meta-IF for compound anomalies. An adaptive Otsu/MAD threshold calibrates detection automatically across anomaly rates from 0.1% to 69.2%. Because each IF is trained exclusively on type-specific features, branch firing provides direct anomaly-type attribution by construction, without post-hoc explanation. Evaluated on all 19 datasets of the mTSBench benchmark (Zhou et al., TMLR 2026), CRAFTIIF achieves mean F1=0.228 (all 19 datasets) and F1=0.322 (13 detectable datasets), ranking first among all 25 evaluated methods on VUS-PR (0.463 vs. previous best 0.329, +40.7%). A diagnostic framework -- oracle F1, detectability limits, and branch separation ratios -- identifies 6 of 19 datasets as fundamentally undetectable by any unsupervised method. Ablation over 11 conditions confirms adaptive thresholding (+38% F1), four-branch structure (+20%), and meta-IF (+23%) are each essential. Code: https://github.com/smitswil/craftiif

Airport surface operations increasingly constrain performance at high-throughput hubs. This study examines arrival taxi-in decisions at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (KATL) and proposes a two-stage, data-driven decision aid that mirrors controller workflow. Stage I predicts the runway exit selected by an arriving aircraft. Stage II predicts whether, given that exit, the aircraft will cross the active departure runway at a designated point or use the end-around taxiway. Models are trained using ASDE-X surface trajectories, aircraft characteristics, ramp destinations, short-horizon traffic rates, and weather across multiple look-back windows. We benchmark nine classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, and evaluate accuracy, macro-F1, precision-recall behavior, confusion matrices, Brier score, and Expected Calibration Error. Across east and west flows, XGBoost and LightGBM outperform Random Forest. Stage I achieves 0.86-0.89 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.40-0.50, while Stage II achieves 0.70-0.74 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.28-0.55. Feature-importance analysis shows that approach speed is the main driver of exit choice. Departure rate, crossing rate, ramp destination, and, for west flow, the selected exit are the strongest predictors of crossing versus end-around routing. Minority classes remain harder to predict because of feature-space overlap, as shown by t-SNE and UMAP analyses. The proposed framework supports controller situational awareness through calibrated, explainable predictions while preserving human responsibility for final routing decisions.

Variable importance produced by Random Forests (RF) is used widely in statistical data analysis, and has played an important role in a variety of tasks such as assisting model interpretation, model selection and diagnosis, and cost-bounded learning etc. However, the calculation of variable importance in RF does not take into account of the correlations among variables, and variables that are correlated to many other variables tend to receive a lower importance index or being completely masked (i.e., with an importance index near zero) by other strongly correlated variables. To prevent influence from unwanted correlated variables in calculating variable importance, we propose to group variables by their conditional correlations (conditional on the response variable). We explore two computationally efficient options, with one grouping variables individually, and then separates the variable of interest from all correlated variables, while the other uses clustering to group variables according to their pair-wise conditional correlations. Our experiments show that both lead to sensible corrections to the importance of variables.

Adversarial attacks pose a serious and growing threat to Machine Learning (ML)-based Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS), where imperceptible perturbations to network flow features can systematically mislead classifiers into accepting malicious traffic as benign. The IDS-Anta framework partially addresses this through Z-score normalization, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), and Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) classifier selection with Thompson Sampling, yet its classifier pool lacks sufficient structural diversity for robust adversarial resistance. This work introduces IDS-Anta++, which incorporates XGBoost and LightGBM gradient boosting models into the ensemble and wraps the extended pool in a three-layer black-box defense: Isolation Forest anomaly screening, median feature smoothing, and six-way majority voting. Experiments conducted on CIC-IDS-2017, CEC-CIC-IDS-2018, and CIC-DDoS-2019 under both Fast Gradient Sign Method (FGSM) and Zeroth Order Optimization (ZOO) attacks confirm detection accuracy above 99% on clean data, with measurable robustness gains under adversarial conditions relative to the baseline IDS-Anta configuration.

We introduce Varifold Moments Invariants (VMI) as a unifying framework for many previously introduced Moment Invariants. These invariants are deeply related to other contour features that are invariant under translations and rotations, like Extended Gaussian Image, Elliptic Fourier Descriptors or Shape Distributions. The advantage of the varifold approach to moments consists in being able to combine the geometry of the region, its boundary, and the family of lines tangent to it, in order to create a substantial number of invariant features with high discriminating power and clear geometric meaning. By coupling our VMI feature extraction with the light feature classifiers Random Forest or Multi-Layer-Perceptron, we outperform state-of-the-art approaches based on contours, while decreasing drastically the computational cost to the point of allowing our algorithm to run on light devices. We tested our approach on classification tasks on a large number of widely-used datasets of various types (leaves, objects, cells) and achieved high accuracy with a low number of geometrically interpretable features.

Raw numerical datasets remain less systematically examined in integrity screening than images, plagiarism, or summary-statistic inconsistencies. We developed the Fabrication-risk Digit Randomness Screening model (FDRS), a statistical and machine-learning framework for detecting non-random digit-pattern irregularities in numerical research data. FDRS integrates single- and joint-decimal-digit tests, Cramer's V, entropy metrics, Kullback-Leibler divergence, digit-preference indices, progressive subsampling, and semi-supervised risk scoring. It was evaluated using an instrument-derived enzymatic absorbance dataset (RawData, n=253) and a blinded manually simulated irregular dataset (ErrData, n=255). RawData showed no significant deviation in single third-decimal-digit analysis, whereas ErrData showed a significant deviation. In joint third-fourth decimal digit analysis, ErrData showed higher Cramer's V, lower normalized entropy, higher KL divergence, and a more persistent progressive-subsampling deviation signal. In internal validation, Elastic-net Logistic Regression achieved the highest AUC (0.98395) and lowest Brier score (0.048439), while Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (0.926667) and balanced accuracy (0.935). RawData received a low ensemble risk score of 0.124627 and was classified as Grade 0; ErrData received a score of 0.740760 and was classified as Grade 3. External real-world benchmarks supported graded risk stratification: three datasets without identified public post-publication concerns were classified as Grade 0 or 1, whereas two datasets from publicly questioned or institutionally handled articles were classified as Grade 2 or 3. FDRS can prioritize raw numerical datasets for further review by integrating interpretable statistical and machine-learning features. It is an auxiliary digit-structure screening tool, not standalone evidence of fabrication or misconduct.

Accurate, spatially explicit characterization of tropical forest structure is essential for carbon accounting and ecosystem monitoring, yet most ML pipelines predict canopy-top height proxies (e.g., RH95/RH98) or AGBD as separate scalar targets, rather than learning the forest vertical structure as an ordered profile. The community lacks a ML-ready multimodal benchmark for predicting the entire GEDI RH profile jointly with AGBD, or for evaluating methods that enforce physically consistent ordering across RH percentiles. We address this with Biomazon, a 20 m multimodal benchmark dataset over the Amazon Basin that pairs GEDI RH and AGBD targets with multi-sensor predictors (Sentinel-1/2, ALOS-2 PALSAR-2, Copernicus DEM, Dynamic World LULC, and AlphaEarth embeddings) under standardized spatial splits and evaluation protocols. Using a shared encoder-decoder with task-specific heads as a baseline framework, we conduct a comprehensive ablation study of (i) backbone/model scale, (ii) modality contributions, and (iii) the use of auxiliary embeddings under standalone and fusion settings, and we report both single-target and joint-target results to quantify tradeoffs under a unified training protocol. Finally, we contextualize baseline performance through regionally aligned comparisons against existing gridded products, including GEDI L4D RH10-RH98 and AGBD, at matching temporal scale. Biomazon, together with the accompanying protocols and baseline results, establishes a reference benchmark for future work on structurally consistent RH-profile prediction and structure-biomass modeling in tropical forests.

Hyperparameter optimization (HPO) for Random Forest faces a specific difficulty in tuning the number of trees: the predictive score typically improves monotonically with ensemble size, so standard methods such as Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) and Hyperband require a predefined search range and often drive the estimate toward its right boundary. Early-stopping strategies avoid fixing such a range, but can be sensitive to score noise and prone to premature stopping. To address this, we propose an integrated triplet-based plateau-search algorithm that removes the number of trees from the direct TPE search space and still exploits information accumulated across HPO trials. The method adaptively tracks a near-minimal sufficient ensemble size by monitoring relative changes in the out-of-bag (OOB) score across a triplet of forest sizes and shifting this triplet accordingly. This yields an automated and user-interpretable procedure based on a tolerance parameter. We also provide a theoretical analysis: we relate the proposed relative OOB-score criterion to the gap between the current and limiting scores, and derive an asymptotic variance estimate for the corresponding OOB-based absolute relative difference. Experiments show that the selected number of trees can differ substantially from the common heuristic: for most classical benchmark datasets it is smaller, whereas for some high-dimensional bioinformatics datasets, such as Arcene and Dorothea, it is larger. The source code and reproducible experiments are available at https://github.com/lange-am/rf_plateau_hpo.

Randomized smoothing (RS) uses a smoothed classifier to provide architecture-agnostic certificates of $\ell_2$ classification robustness, but its dependence on per-input Monte Carlo (MC) sampling undermines its use in real-time systems. We argue that this cost is structural rather than fundamental, such that it can be significantly reduced by sharing information across the deployment stream. We introduce RRISE, an RS framework that compresses certification into a single forward pass through a learned surrogate. RRISE trains the surrogate against precomputed MC class-count targets via a soft-label cross-entropy loss and converts surrogate predictions into provably conservative certified radii through a one-time conformal calibration step. The resulting certificate is deployment-verifiable: whenever the calibrated radius is positive, the surrogate's prediction provably matches the smoothed classifier's and the smoothed classifier is constant on a ball of that radius around the input. Across image classification benchmarks, RRISE matches fixed-budget MC certified accuracy within $0.84$ percentage points while replacing up to $10^4$ noisy base-model evaluations per query with a single surrogate forward pass, recouping MC training cost after $\approx 10^5$ deployment queries. On CIFAR-100 and Tiny ImageNet, where the only prior offline-surrogate method collapses, RRISE achieves $1.23$ to $1.91\times$ higher certified accuracy, establishing efficient randomized smoothing as a practical path to certified robustness in repeated-deployment settings.

The GDP of a country is modelled as the relative interaction between two agents - working hours, reflecting the social choice of a population, and Total Factor Productivity, reflecting the collective investment in productivity enhancers. It is shown that a Random Forest model can accu- rately predict the GDP from these two factors. The differences in the choices made by Germany and USA are analysed though Gini importance, SHAP plots and partial dependency. It is shown that the differences in the social structure of the countries are reflected in the relative contribution of working hours and productivity to the GDP.

Bagging-based ensembles, most notably Adaptive Random Forests, are among the strongest performers for learning from data streams. A common denominator across these methods is their reliance on Hoeffding Trees as base learners, which grow decision trees incrementally by testing whether a candidate split is significantly better than its alternatives using concentration inequalities. Despite their empirical success, existing variants lack valid statistical guarantees. Current analyses rely on fixed-sample concentration bounds, while split decisions are made using data-dependent stopping rules, which invalidates their guarantees and can drive the probabilty of incorrect splits to one. We introduce a principled alternative based on anytime-valid inference. Our method provides: (i) anytime-valid control of false splits under arbitrary data streams, including non-stationary settings; (ii) finite commitment time under a predictive advantage; and (iii) under stationary i.i.d. data, risk is monotone decreasing and strictly improves at every split. Empirically, we evaluate both standalone trees and their use within Adaptive Random Forests on non-stationary streams. Our method improves performance while producing substantially smaller trees.

The detection of intrusions in IoT-based networks poses challenges that cannot be overcome using traditional machine learning methods. Perhaps the biggest of them is related to the presence of a class imbalance in the side-channel dataset, where the number of samples in the normal class compared to the attacks can reach a ratio of 75,964 to 1. Such an aspect is addressed by Dominguez et al. through the proof of concept of power-based intrusion detection. Unfortunately, neither the authors attempt to cope with the problem of imbalance nor do they assess the classifier performance using a balanced training set. In the current paper, both aspects will be handled at once. First, a Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) was performed on all nine possible datasets extracted from the initial one, providing an exact imbalance ratio of 1.1 for each. Then, eight algorithms i.e. Random Forest, HistGradientBoosting, LightGBM, Extra Trees, XGBoost, k-Nearest Neighbors, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Decision Tree were trained under identical conditions for the SMOTE balanced 6-hour dataset. Random Forest reached a micro-averaged F1 score of 0.9989 and macro F1 of 0.9794, thus outperforming the previously best micro-F1 result obtained by Time Series Forest algorithm from the base paper of 0.9983. Extra Trees provided the same performance as well, but at 10 times faster. The introduction of a macro-F1 metric explicitly in contrast to the base paper assessment reveals important class-level information missed with aggregate performance metrics. Recall rates per-class calculated with confusion matrices, F1 heatmaps, and ROC curves show that minority attack classes, especially those with combined M+L infections, are detected reliably only when using SMOTE balance. Feature importance analysis indicates the latest time steps as the most important predictor signals out of 60 steps in a power window.

The amount of fat on the surroundings of the heart is correlated to several health risk factors such as carotid stiffness, coronary artery calcification, atrial fibrillation, atherosclerosis, cancer incidence and others. Furthermore, the cardiac fat varies unrelated to the overall fat of the subject, and, therefore, it reinforces the quantitative analysis of these adipose tissues as being essential. Clinical decision support systems are computer programs capable of evaluating information and providing a corresponding diagnosis or data to complement the physicists' analyses. The aim of this work is to propose a method capable of fully automatically segmenting two types of cardiac adipose tissues that stand apart from each other by the pericardium on CT images obtained by the standard acquisition protocol used for coronary calcium scoring. Much effort was devoted to promote minimal user intervention and ease of reproducibility. The methodology proposed in this work consists of a registration, which will roughly adjust input images to a standard, an extraction of features related to pixels and their surrounding area and a segmentation step based on data mining classification algorithms that define if an incoming pixel is of a certain type. Experimentations showed that the achieved mean accuracy for the epicardial and mediastinal fats was 98.4% with a mean true positive rate of 96.2%. In average, the Dice similarity index was equal to 96.8%.

CART random forests are among the most widely used modern predictive methods, with well-documented empirical success. Yet, at the mechanistic level, the algorithm is often treated as a black box because of its complexity. In this paper, we develop a stochastic-control perspective on feature-subsampled CART random forests, named CART random opportunity-set allocation (CART-ROSA). At each node, the random subset of features is interpreted as a random feasible action set, and the CART split rule as a masked-action allocation policy. This policy induces a controlled stochastic process over informative split-count states, whose terminal law determines both single-tree error and cross-tree interaction terms in the forest mean squared error (MSE). Such representation opens the black box of CART-forests by separating two design levers: the informative-opportunity rate induced by feature subsampling, and the contraction strength from the within-mask split policy. We establish that the CART policy is locally stabilizing: it contracts imbalances in informative split allocations and concentrates terminal tree geometry. At the system level, however, it can be globally suboptimal for the forest objective. Specializing to the linear model, we derive the MSE risk expansion explicitly. Our results show how an operations-research perspective makes tractable a theoretical gap difficult to access from the standard algorithmic description of CART forests.

Multi-center survival prediction can improve robustness and generalizability, yet privacy regulations and institutional governance often prevent pooling patient-level clinical and genomic data across institutions. In practice, deployment is further complicated by feature-space heterogeneity, in which sites collect different covariates or use different sequencing panels, resulting in only partially overlapping feature sets. We present FederatedRSF, a Python package that implements federated random survival forests, aggregating locally trained survival trees and redistributing only feature-compatible trees to each site, enabling inference with partial overlap without sharing raw data. We evaluate FederatedRSF on the GBSG2 breast cancer cohort distributed with the scikit-survival package, simulating feature heterogeneity across clients by withholding subsets of features, and assessing discrimination using Harrell's concordance index (C-Index) under repeated cross-validation and site-splits. The results demonstrated that the federated model can achieve performance comparable to that of the centralized training setting.

Random forests are widely used in fields involving sensitive tabular data, but existing approaches to enforcing differential privacy (DP) typically degrade performance to the point of impracticality. In this paper, we introduce Lumberjack, a differentially private random forest algorithm that achieves substantially higher utility by constructing large random decision trees and then applying aggressive, privacy-preserving pruning to retain only sufficiently populated nodes. A key component of our approach is a novel $(\varepsilon,δ)$-DP heavy hitter detection algorithm for hierarchical data, whose error is $O_{\varepsilon,δ}(\sqrt{\log h})$ for trees of height $h$ and may be of independent interest. This favorable scaling enables the use of significantly deeper trees than in prior work, leading to improved expressiveness under privacy constraints. Our empirical evaluation on benchmark datasets shows that Lumberjack consistently outperforms prior DP random forest methods, establishing a new state of the art. In particular, our approach yields substantial improvements in the privacy-utility trade-off for practical privacy budgets. Our findings suggest that carefully designed DP random forests can close much of the utility gap, highlighting a promising and underexplored direction for future research.

Unsupervised anomaly detection is widely used in transaction fraud detection where labels are scarce. Isolation Forest (IF) is among the most popular classical methods due to its scalability and ease of deployment. We propose SilIF, an augmentation of Isolation Forest that adds a silhouette-based scoring layer computed in a representation space induced by the trees of the forest. For each point, we extract a vector of per-tree path lengths, cluster these "fingerprints" into structural groups, and compute a silhouette score that measures how well the point fits its assigned group versus the nearest alternative. The silhouette signal is combined with the base IF score via a single hyperparameter alpha. On the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection benchmark (~590K transactions, 3.5% fraud), SilIF with alpha=1.0 improves over plain Isolation Forest by +0.0080 AUC-PR on average across five seeds, with SilIF winning on all five seeds (paired t-test p=0.046). We also report results on a synthetic credit-card dataset (Sparkov) where the silhouette augmentation does not improve over plain IF, and we characterize the conditions that distinguish the two outcomes. The paper presents SilIF as a tunable, easy-to-deploy enhancement to Isolation Forest with honest reporting of when it helps and when it does not. Code at https://github.com/venkat15vk/silif-anomaly-detection.

An accurate assessment of a model's complexity is crucial for topics such as interpretation, generalization, and model selection. However, most existing complexity measures either rely on heuristic assumptions or are computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we present a mathematically rigorous yet easy-to-compute measure of model complexity that is based on the similarities between the model gradients across inputs. It is thus well-defined for any parametric model, but also for kernel-based non-parametric models. We prove that our measure of complexity generalizes model-specific complexity measures such as polynomial degree (for polynomial regression), kernel length scale (for Matérn kernels), number of neighbors (for k-nearest neighbors), number of splits (for decision trees), and number of trees (for random forests). We also use our measure to obtain new insights into the double descent phenomenon for random Fourier features, random forests, neural networks, and gradient boosting.

Random forests construct each tree with a different, randomised representation of the feature space. Their uniform voting cannot correct errors in regions where trees with incorrect representations probabilistically outnumber correct ones, even when the ensemble collectively holds enough correct information - a reducible error that this paper addresses. We propose using the structural pattern of each tree's decision path as an instance-adaptive reliability signal to identify and differentially weight the more reliable trees. At inference, a random forest reaches its prediction through the root-to-leaf path the sample traverses in each tree, so path-level reliability offers a finer granularity than tree-level weighting can access. We show that this signal reflects the actual reliability of each tree's decision, and that using it yields a statistically significant accuracy improvement over RF on 36 binary classification benchmarks (Wilcoxon p < 0.0001). Class-recall regression - the typical failure mode of RF correction methods - is measured: zero minority-recall regressions and a single majority-recall regression at the 0.2 pp threshold, indicating bias reduction rather than a class trade-off. We further quantify the reducible error accessible to the method from the fitted RF alone; this estimate correlates strongly with per-dataset gain (Pearson r = +0.840, p < 0.0001). On the qualifying group it identifies, the method delivers a mean +0.99 pp accuracy improvement with strict wins on every dataset (7/0/0); an optional amplification mechanism further raises this to +1.48 pp.

This work proposes a pixel-classification approach for vessel segmentation in x-ray angiograms. The proposal uses textural features such as anisotropic diffusion, features based on the Hessian matrix, mathematical morphology and statistics. These features are extracted from the neighborhood of each pixel. The approach also uses the ELEMENT methodology, which consists of creating a pixel-classification controlled by region-growing where the result of the classification affects further classifications of pixels. The Random Forests classifier is used to predict whether the pixel belongs to the vessel structure. The approach achieved the best accuracy in the literature (95.48%) outperforming unsupervised state-of-the-art approaches.

The exponential growth of big data has intensified the need for efficient and interpretable machine learning models that can handle diverse data characteristics while maintaining computational efficiency. Knowledge distillation has primarily focused on neural network-to-neural network transfer, leaving cross-paradigm knowledge transfer largely unexplored. This paper presents the first comprehensive study of bidirectional knowledge distillation between Random Forests (RF) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN), addressing critical gaps in ensemble learning and model compression for big data applications. We propose novel methodologies including progressive multi-stage distillation, multi-teacher ensemble distillation from diverse tree models, and uncertainty-aware cross-paradigm transfer mechanisms. Through 144 comprehensive experiments across 6 diverse datasets encompassing classification and regression tasks, we demonstrate that bidirectional RF-DL distillation achieves competitive performance while providing complementary benefits: interpretability from tree models and expressiveness from neural networks. Our results show that multi-teacher ensemble distillation consistently outperforms traditional approaches, with NN-COMPACT achieving 98.13% classification accuracy and NN-WIDE reaching 92.6% R^2 score in regression tasks. The proposed framework enables deployment flexibility in big data environments, allowing optimal model selection based on computational constraints and interpretability requirements. This work establishes a new research direction in cross-paradigm knowledge transfer with significant implications for interpretable AI and scalable model deployment in resource-constrained big data systems.

Tree ensembles such as random forests (RFs) and gradient boosting machines (GBMs) are among the most widely used supervised learners, yet their theoretical properties remain incompletely understood. We adopt a spectral perspective on these algorithms, with two main contributions. First, we derive minimax-optimal convergence for RF regression, showing that, under mild regularity conditions on tree growth, the eigenvalue decay of the induced kernel operator governs the statistical rate. Second, we exploit this spectral viewpoint to develop compression schemes for tree ensembles. For RFs, leading eigenfunctions of the kernel operator capture the dominant predictive directions; for GBMs, leading singular vectors of the smoother matrix play an analogous role. Learning nonlinear maps for these spectral representations yields distilled models that are orders of magnitude smaller than the originals while maintaining competitive predictive performance. Our methods compare favorably to state of the art algorithms for forest pruning and rule extraction, with applications to resource constrained computing.

The use of content features, particularly textual and linguistic for fake news detection is under-researched, despite empirical evidence showing the features could contribute to differentiating real and fake news. To this end, this study investigates a selection of content features such as word bigrams, part of speech distribution etc. to improve fake news detection. We performed a series of experiments on a new dataset gathered during the COVID-19 pandemic and using Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbor, Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. Random Forest yielded the best results, followed closely by Support Vector Machine, across all setups. In general, both the textual and linguistic features were found to improve fake news detection when used separately, however, combining them into a single model did not improve the detection significantly. Differences were also noted between the use of bigrams and part of speech tags. The study shows that textual and linguistic features can be used successfully in detecting fake news using the traditional machine learning approach as opposed to deep learning.

We present CRADIPOR, a numerical dispersion prediction tool for automotive crash simulations. Finite Element (FE) crash models are widely used throughout vehicle development, but their predictions are not strictly repeatable because of parallel computation and model complexity. As a result, performance criteria evaluated during post-processing may exhibit significant numerical dispersion, which complicates engineering decision-making. Although dispersion can be estimated by repeating the same simulation, this approach is generally impractical because of its high computational cost. This work therefore investigates a prediction tool that can be applied during routine crash-simulation post-processing without repeating the computation. The proposed approach relies on a Rank Reduction Autoencoder (RRAE) combined with supervised classification in order to identify regions sensitive to numerical dispersion. The comparative analysis suggests that the RRAE-based framework is more effective than the Random Forest baseline on the studied dataset. Among the tested signal representations, wavelet-based and slope-based inputs appear to be the most promising, with slope variations providing the best classification performance. These results support the use of structured latent representations for improving numerical-dispersion detection in automotive crash post-processing.

The discretization of continuous numerical attributes remains a persistent computational bottleneck in the induction of decision trees, particularly as dataset dimensions scale. Building upon the recently proposed MSD-Splitting technique -- which bins continuous data using the empirical mean and standard deviation to dramatically improve the efficiency and accuracy of the C4.5 algorithm -- we introduce Adaptive MSD-Splitting (AMSD). While standard MSD-Splitting is highly effective for approximately symmetric distributions, its rigid adherence to fixed one-standard-deviation cutoffs can lead to catastrophic information loss in highly skewed data, a common artifact in real-world biomedical and financial datasets. AMSD addresses this by dynamically adjusting the standard deviation multiplier based on feature skewness, narrowing intervals in dense regions to preserve discriminative resolution. Furthermore, we integrate AMSD into ensemble methods, specifically presenting the Random Forest-AMSD (RF-AMSD) framework. Empirical evaluations on the Census Income, Heart Disease, Breast Cancer, and Forest Covertype datasets demonstrate that AMSD yields a 2-4% accuracy improvement over standard MSD-Splitting, while maintaining near-identical O(N) time complexity reductions compared to the O(N log N) exhaustive search. Our Random Forest extension achieves state-of-the-art accuracy at a fraction of standard computational costs, confirming the viability of adaptive statistical binning in large-scale ensemble learning architectures.