Full Waveform Inversion

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8 papers in the last 28 days · 0.1% of indexed attention

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Period ending 2026-09-21

2 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Full Waveform Inversion.

Period ending 2026-09-14

4 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Full Waveform Inversion.

Period ending 2026-09-07

2 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Full Waveform Inversion.

58 papers

Latest in Full Waveform Inversion

Sep 17, 2026cs.LG

Seismic Site Response Prediction from Sparse Observations Using Finite-Element-Pretrained Latent Dynamics

Numerical site-response predictions often deviate from observations, yet correcting these discrepancies is difficult because records are limited in both sensor coverage and number of events. This study proposes the Transfer-Enabled Forced Latent Autoencoder for Response Equations (FLARE-T) to improve these predictions by learning and calibrating low-dimensional latent dynamics that connect the base acceleration input to acceleration outputs at multiple depths. FLARE-T learns a low-dimensional response manifold and input-driven dynamics from dense finite-element simulations. It then trains a sparse encoder to map simulated sensor responses into the learned coordinates and uses limited records to calibrate the dynamics within them. A short response window initializes each prediction, while the complete base motion drives the response. The framework was evaluated using a layered-soil centrifuge test and the Lotung field vertical array. Test-set results show that FLARE-T improved multi-depth acceleration histories and 5%-damped pseudoacceleration response spectra relative to the original finite-element models, reducing errors at every evaluated sensor for motions of different intensities and, at Lotung, for both horizontal components. Two Lotung source models with different constitutive parameters achieved comparable test-set accuracy, indicating reduced dependence on precise prior calibration. FLARE-T therefore provides a data-efficient means of combining dense numerical response information with limited field records to improve future site-response predictions.
Yi Zhu, Su Chen, Xiaojun Li
Sep 14, 2026cs.LG

Physical-State-Guided Diffusion Sampling for Full-Waveform Inversion

Full waveform inversion (FWI) estimates subsurface velocity from seismic recordings, but its ill-posedness and nonlinearity make accurate reconstruction strongly dependent on initialization and prior information. Diffusion posterior sampling provides a learned geological prior, yet directly coupling its denoiser to the nonlinear wave solver can yield unreliable physical guidance. We propose Physical-State-Guided Diffusion Sampling (PSG), which couples a persistent physical velocity to the diffusion prior through a Gaussian bridge. The physical state is refined by waveform fitting regularized by the denoised velocity, and in turn guides the reverse diffusion process. This formulation separates the wave-equation and denoiser gradients while preserving conventional FWI initialization and accumulated optimization history. On four OpenFWI families, PSG's terminal denoised estimates outperform classical and diffusion-based baselines under clean and missing-trace acquisitions and maintain strong structural recovery under measurement noise. Repeated stochastic runs preserve the dominant geological structures, with ensemble variability concentrated near geological interfaces and positively associated with local inversion error. A frozen OpenFWI-trained prior further supports inversion of the larger Marmousi, Overthrust, and BP2004 Salt models, recovering complex geological structures without retraining.
Chen Min, Haowen Jiang, Zheng Ma +1
Sep 9, 2026cs.CV

From Pixels to Hierarchical Sequences: Quadtree Mask Encoding for Vision-Language Binary Change Detection

Dense change detection in remote sensing requires vision-language models (VLMs) to compare bi-temporal images and generate accurate pixel-level masks. Existing VLMs are largely confined to change captioning outputs, and the few that produce pixel-level masks still rely on external decoders or flat text-as-mask serialization, which are less effective for small and fragmented changes. We introduce QUAKE-CD, a framework that recasts dense change prediction as syntax-verifiable structured generation. QUAKE-CD represents binary change masks as grammar-constrained quadtree token sequences, making the masks compact, syntactically checkable, and deterministically decodable within an autoregressive generation space. We further construct QUAKE-CoT, which pairs these sequences with chain-of-thought traces grounded in visual evidence, and jointly optimizes textual reasoning and spatial dense prediction through a progressive curriculum followed by grammar-gated dual-reward RL. On QUAKE-CoT, QUAKE-CD achieves 78.31% accumulated F1, outperforming decoder-based and flat text-as-mask VLMs while producing more faithful bi-temporal reasoning.
Xiao An, Ruikang Zhang, Chen Zhong +4
Sep 7, 2026cs.LG

Solving the Elastic Wave Equation with Physics-Informed Neural Networks: A Robust and Critical Assessment

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as a promising approach for solving Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), offering a meshfree alternative that integrates physical principles into the learning process. This presents a new paradigm compared to traditional discretization methods and purely data-driven machine learning techniques. While promising, PINNs are not a panacea; they inherit challenges such as spectral bias and unstable convergence. Moreover, their potential in seismology remains largely unexplored. In this work, we provide a robust and critical assessment of PINNs for solving the elastic wave equation in seismology. We investigate the performance of PINNs on problems with varying degrees of complexity across various seismic sources and parameter models, from constant to highly heterogeneous settings. A pivotal aspect of our work involves investigating whether embedding physical principles directly into the network architecture enhances convergence and accuracy. We test an extensive range of neural architecture designs, from unrestricted, uninformed PINNs to highly specialized ones. We find that integrating an understanding of wave physics into the network design significantly improves accuracy. For instance, introducing a custom wavelet or plane wave layer, coupled with encoder and decoder layers, consistently yields a relative L2L_2 error approximately half that of the standard PINN, as evidenced across numerous experiments. We further demonstrate that this novel architecture enhances accuracy when applied to the acoustic wave equation, underlying the versatility of our network. Another key contribution of our research is the successful conditioning of PINNs on seismic source locations. This signifies a considerable advancement towards rapid seismic hazard detection and seismic analysis.
Davide Staub, Ben Moseley
Sep 7, 2026physics.geo-ph

SeisBench DAS: A machine learning framework for Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Fibre optic sensing, such as distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), has become a widespread technology for geophysical studies. To process the large-scale datasets produced by DAS, several machine learning methods have been proposed. However, without standardization of data and models, these methods lack comparability and interoperability. This introduces a gap between model developers and practitioners analyzing DAS data and inhibits adoption of deep learning for DAS. To address these limitations, here we present SeisBench DAS, an extension to the SeisBench library for machine learning in seismology. SeisBench DAS defines standard formats for DAS benchmark datasets, including standardised metadata and labels, and DAS models. It builds on the xdas framework for data ingestion and virtual array handling, and on PyTorch for reading and applying the machine learning models. Importantly, SeisBench provides an engine to efficiently apply deep learning models to diverse formats of DAS data, bridging the gap between model developers and practitioners. SeisBench DAS is designed as an open and extensible framework, allowing to easily incorporate future developments in deep learning for DAS.
Jannes Münchmeyer, Han Xiao, Frederik Tilmann
Sep 7, 2026cs.CL

BlueprintAgent: Constraint-Triggered Targeted Revisits for Simulation-Ready Generation from Scanned Structural Blueprints

Converting in-service reinforced-concrete (RC) building blueprints into simulation-ready models---structured frame representations that support deterministic FEM export and qualified-engineer review---underpins safety assessment and seismic retrofit, but the process remains manual. Direct prompting of a multimodal large language model (MLLM) over a scanned sheet is unreliable: outputs often violate engineering constraints on beam--column support, span count, or 3D continuity. We present BlueprintAgent (BPA), a constraint-triggered multimodal agent for simulation-ready frame extraction from scanned blueprints. BPA treats the MLLM as the primary reader and decision maker, with OCR and computer vision supplying localized evidence. Its central mechanism realizes engineering constraints as callable validators whose entity-level conflict reports trigger targeted MLLM revisits over the local region---an inference-time control distinct from fixed pipelines and free-form self-reflection. We evaluate BPA on 300 real scanned blueprint sheets from 20 anonymized RC frame projects, against five baselines and six ablations. BPA reaches a macro-averaged Beam F1 of 0.994, against 0.301 for single-MLLM zero-shot and 0.820 for a fixed pipeline; removing MLLM-led axis adjudication collapses Beam and Column F1 on complex multi-sheet projects. For dense technical drawings, engineering constraints are best deployed as triggers for entity-level targeted revisits rather than as post-hoc output filters.
Zhouyuan Xu, Chen Yang, Linhao Wang +2
Sep 1, 2026cs.CV

EarthLD: Towards Unified Open-World Landslide Understanding via Vision-Language Guided Diffusion Models

Landslides are widespread geological hazards, yet their automated detection and mapping in remote sensing imagery remain challenging because of their irregular morphology, ambiguous spectral signatures, and substantial domain shifts across imaging platforms. To overcome these challenges, we propose EarthLD, a vision-language-guided diffusion framework for open-world landslide understanding, enabling unified landslide recognition, mapping, and trigger interpretation. At its core, EarthLD formulates landslide understanding as a diffusion process that progressively infers the presence, spatial extent, and pixel-level boundaries of landslides from noisy latent representations. This probabilistic formulation enables the model to jointly perform image-level landslide recognition and mapping while characterizing predictive uncertainty. By integrating visual observations with contextual knowledge in the denoising process, EarthLD distinguishes diverse landslides from backgrounds, produces confidence-aware predictions for suspected regions, and maps landslide ranges. We additionally construct a global-scale open-world landslide benchmark by systematically harmonizing multiple publicly available remote sensing data collected by diverse institutions. Extensive experiments across regions, sensors, and triggering events demonstrate that EarthLD consistently outperforms existing landslide detection methods, highlighting its potential as a unified and robust solution for global geological-hazard monitoring and emergency response.
Yuanchao Su, Lianru Gao, Mengying Jiang +3
Aug 31, 2026cs.SD

Decoupled Latent Flow Matching for Few-Step Joint Vocal-Accompaniment Separation

Generative modeling provides a flexible way to model mixture-conditioned source distributions, but iterative diffusion and flow matching models are costly for long music signals. This paper studies joint vocal-accompaniment separation through latent flow matching, where a pretrained variational autoencoder (VAE) maps mixtures and sources into a compact latent space and a flow matching model generates vocal and accompaniment latents jointly. The proposed framework decouples semantic separation from acoustic velocity prediction through a Separation Encoder and a Velocity Decoder. To reduce sampling cost, we further apply latent adversarial post-training inspired by Flow2GAN for few-step generation. Experiments show that latent adversarial refinement can improve perceptual and separation metrics under a reduced sampling budget.
Lishi Zuo, Youzhi Tu, Lu Yi +4
Aug 5, 2026cs.LG

Real-time probabilistic tsunami forecasting via generative AI

Explicit onshore tsunami inundation forecasting can improve public risk awareness, but deterministically predicted inundation boundaries under highly uncertain conditions, such as near-field tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes, may falsely imply safety outside the boundaries. Consequently, current warnings primarily target coastal tsunami height, not onshore inundation. Although machine learning enables instant inundation predictions, they remain deterministic, lacking uncertainty quantification. Here, we develop a probabilistic ensemble model based on a conditional diffusion model (a type of generative AI) that reconciles accuracy with calibration. Validated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake data, our model faithfully tracks the postearthquake uncertainty decreasing over time while accurately predicting inundation depth and extent. Our framework shows that generative AI can shift tsunami forecasting from determinism to probabilism, providing a foundation for next-generation early warning.
Yusuke Oishi, Takashi Furumura, Fumihiko Imamura
Jul 30, 2026cs.LG

RIPPLE: Generating Multi-Channel Phase, Not Recovering It

Generative models synthesize magnitude spectra with high fidelity, while phase is delegated to a recovery module---Griffin--Lim, a vocoder, or a latent decoder---applied independently to each channel. For multi-channel waveforms this delegation is costly: the physical content of spatial audio and three-component seismograms lives in the phase relationships between channels, precisely what channel-independent recovery cannot produce. The cost is also invisible, since the magnitude-based metrics common to both fields barely move when inter-channel phase coherence collapses---so a pipeline can discard the physical information in its output while still scoring well. We argue that phase should be generated, not recovered, and present RIPPLE (Rectified Inter-channel Phase with Prior-based LEarning), which reinterprets Griffin--Lim as a phase prior rather than a final estimator: initialized from the source phase, this prior carries the inter-channel structure to be preserved, and a rectified flow refines it toward the target under an explicit inter-channel phase loss. Tested on first-order ambisonics environment transfer and seismic cross-station translation---two physically unrelated domains---RIPPLE outperforms recovery-based pipelines on the coherence metrics that downstream analyses consume. The seismic case is decisive: across architecturally distinct generators, per-channel recovery leaves S-wave polarization error near the 57.357.3^\circ random expectation, whereas learned phase reduces it to 33.833.8^\circ.
Jaehyuk Lee, Yeajin Lee, Dayeon Shin +1
Jul 27, 2026physics.geo-ph

Automatic Knowledge Graph Construction and Query for Earthquake Catalogs

In recent years, the number of events in earthquake catalogs has significantly increased due to the utilization of more effective deep learning based detectors and phase pickers but answering open ended questions such as what characterizes this sequence? remains constrained by rigid spatiotemporal windowing and subjective expert interpretation. We present the first systematic application of graph based retrieval augmented generation GraphRAG directly to raw, tabular catalog records across three independently featured catalogs, a reservoir adjacent swarm, the 2019 Ridgecrest tectonic sequence, and the 2021 Maduo Mw7.4 aftershock sequence. Without the need for manual data structuring, the pipeline builds structurally complete, queryable knowledge graphs for all three. Rigorous evaluation individually verified against catalog derived ground truth and a rule based reference graph exposes failure modes, and four seismology informed prompt fixes eliminate all targeted fabrications while sharply improving mechanism reasoning. A vector RAG baseline demonstrates the graph layers distinctive value, catalog wide summarization and temporal stage comparison. In addition, we have identified two main pitfalls that need attention. GraphRAG thus offers a practical, transferable, near zero cost query interface for earthquake catalogs, where careful prompting ensures the results are consistently accurate and trustworthy.
Yuxin Zhou, Huai Zhang, S. Mostafa Mousavi
Jul 27, 2026cs.LG

Monitoring Post-Disaster Urban Recovery Using High-Resolution SAR Time Series and Unsupervised Learning: Evidence from the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake

Monitoring post-disaster recovery is essential for understanding how urban systems rebuild and progressively return to functionality. However, tracking reconstruction remains difficult because reliable ground-truth information is often scarce and recovery processes evolve over time. This paper proposes an unsupervised framework for recovery monitoring based on multi-temporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations and deep-learning anomaly detection. COSMO-SkyMed time series are used to identify persistent temporal anomalies associated with reconstruction activities and to generate spatially explicit recovery maps. The framework is applied to four cities severely affected by the 2023 Turkiye-Syria earthquakes, revealing heterogeneous reconstruction dynamics across different urban contexts. The results show spatially structured patterns of persistent anomalies related to reconstruction over damaged and cleared areas, temporary container settlements, and new residential districts. Comparison with nighttime-light recovery indicators derived from SDGSAT-1 data highlights the complementary nature of the two modalities: nighttime lights reflect the restoration of electricity supply and nighttime socioeconomic activity, whereas SAR anomalies capture structural changes in the built environment and may reveal reconstruction at earlier stages. The results demonstrate that multi-temporal SAR data combined with unsupervised learning provide an effective and scalable approach for monitoring post-disaster reconstruction when labeled recovery datasets are unavailable.
Luigi Russo, Deodato Tapete, Silvia Liberata Ullo +1
Jul 24, 2026cs.RO

Impedance Control of Ship-Borne Manipulators via Optimization-based Task-Space Inverse Dynamics

Ship-borne manipulators operating in maritime environments are subject to stochastic wave-induced base motions that introduce kinematic disturbances and dynamic coupling, degrading trajectory tracking accuracy and complicating safe, contact-rich manipulation. This paper proposes a torque-level optimization-based control framework that integrates high-precision trajectory tracking with task-space impedance for ship-borne manipulators. The controller is formulated using task-space inverse dynamics (TSID) and solved via quadratic programming to explicitly compensate for the dynamic coupling introduced by base motion. To enable accurate feedforward compensation, an error-state Kalman filter (ESKF) is developed to estimate the base state by fusing inertial measurements with end-effector pose feedback. The framework is validated in simulation and real-world experiments using a 7-DOF manipulator mounted on a 6-DOF Stewart platform. The proposed method reduces real-world end-effector position tracking error by over 25.7% compared with the best baseline. Furthermore, the controller enables dynamic peg-in-hole insertion with 1~mm clearance under base motion, increasing the success rate while reducing average contact forces by 45%, demonstrating precise and compliant manipulation in contact-rich environments.
Lingxiao Meng, Bi-Ke Zhu, Xuheng Gao +5
Jul 23, 2026cs.CV

Latent Variable-Mediated Cross-Learning for Few-Shot Acoustic Impedance Imaging

Acoustic impedance imaging is a fundamental yet severely ill-posed problem in subsurface analysis: the seismic wavelet is unknown, observations are band-limited, and labeled well-log samples are extremely scarce (typically <1% of all traces). Existing semi-supervised deep learning methods mitigate few-shot problem by incorporating forward modeling, yet they either rely on inaccurate prior wavelet assumptions or introduce auxiliary networks, leading to unstable optimization and degraded performance. We propose RD-SCL, a novel framework that integrates regularized deconvolution with semi-supervised cross-learning. At its core lies a differentiable, closed-form first-order Tikhonov deconvolution operator that dynamically estimates the latent wavelet in the frequency domain during training, providing stable physics-guided feedback without explicit auxiliary networks and fixed wavelet priors. Building on this operator, we design a symmetric cross-learning that enforces consistency between predictions on labeled and unlabeled data, thereby effectively exploiting abundant unlabeled traces. Extensive experiments on the SEAM and Marmousi 2 benchmarks demonstrate that RD-SCL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art supervised and semi-supervised methods, achieving substantial gains with lower computational cost. With only 56.5k learnable parameters and competitive runtime, RD-SCL offers a practical, physically consistent, and efficient solution for acoustic impedance imaging.
Junheng Peng, Yong Li, Mingwei Wang +1
Jul 22, 2026cs.CV

Cortex: Compact Behavior Cloning for Quake with Frozen Visual Features

We study how far a deliberately simple behavioral-cloning policy can progress in a visually rich first-person game before adding reinforcement learning or explicit memory. Cortex is a compact Quake policy with 10.98 million trainable parameters in a six-layer transformer over a frozen DINOv3 encoder. It is trained on the Quake subset of the public Pixels2Play corpus: 6,849 recordings (about 474.7 hours), represented as 17.09 million cached decision frames with keyboard and mouse actions. One sampled training epoch uses 517,048 four-frame windows and takes 3.3 minutes of policy-head optimization on one RTX 5080, excluding one-time feature extraction. We evaluate two independent batches of 20 stochastic, 120-second episodes on Quake E1M1. Cortex does not complete the level, but every episode reaches the opening door, button room, and gate descent; 19 of 20 episodes in each batch record at least one kill. Under the same time-controlled harness, released P2P-150M and NitroGen checkpoints remain shallower in five matched-duration episodes each. These comparisons are limited by small reference samples and different native interfaces. Ablations show that denser visual tokens improve combat and survival, while longer optimization and naive action history improve offline metrics without consistently improving play. The remaining failures are consistent with covariate shift and motivate targeted corrective data. We release the policy implementation, checkpoint, and a representative rollout.
Dzmitry Malyshau
Jul 21, 2026physics.geo-ph

Juxtaposition of Shallow Reservoir-Triggered Seismicity and Deep Tectonic Locking in the Qiaojia-Dongchuan Seismic Gap

Identifying the critical state of mature seismic gaps is challenging, especially when anthropogenic stress perturbations, such as reservoir impoundment, superimpose on tectonic loading. Here, utilizing a high-resolution dense array catalog from the Qiaojia-Dongchuan seismic gap (hosting the second-largest hydropower station in the world), we reveal a distinct vertical decoupling mechanism. The shallow activities exhibit high b-values (1.0), indicative of fluid-driven reservoir-triggered seismicity. Conversely, deep seismicity (20 km) outlines a 'locked asperity' characterized by low b-values (less than 0.8) and high Coulomb stress accumulation rate. We further identify a complex dipping structure, suggesting compound fault kinematics. Additionally, the calculated stress accumulation suggests this seismic gap is in a critical state with elevated rupture potential. Our findings indicate that shallow induced seismicity can mask the silent accumulation of deep tectonic strain. This decoupling model provides a new framework for assessing seismic risks in reservoir-fault systems globally.
Yuxin Zhou, Huai Zhang, S. Mostafa Mousavi +5
Jul 15, 2026cs.AI

Earthquaker-AI: A Retrieval-Augmented Generation Framework with Rubric-Based Assessment for Primary School Earthquake Education

This paper presents Earthquaker-AI, a hybrid educational framework building upon a previously implemented educational robotics project by integrating a conversational AI assistant based on Retrieval-Augmented Generation. It aims to enhance earthquake preparedness and conscious action among primary-school students. The system extends the award-winning STEM project Earthquaker moving from mechanical simulation with Lego WeDo2 to cognitive and metacognitive processing. The robotics component uses Lego WeDo2 automation to simulate seismic response, letting students interact with sensors and actuators as tangible representations of protective actions. The assistant operates as a guided learning mechanism aligning student responses with safety guidelines, while providing rubric-based verbal feedback that supports self-regulated learning and calmness under emergency conditions. Earthquaker-AI follows a progressive learning trajectory aligned with cognitive development. In early grades, the focus is on basic recognition of safety actions through multiple-choice questions, assessed via a two-dimensional rubric. In middle grades, students identify correct action sequences through multiple-choice questions, evaluated via a three-axis rubric. In upper grades, the approach shifts to verbal production, requiring short written responses assessed via a four-dimensional rubric that includes clarity of expression. The dialogic module uses RAG to match student queries semantically with official guidelines, generating safe, accurate responses. Experimental evaluation shows high groundedness and accuracy, with a low hallucination rate. Overall, Earthquaker-AI combines hands-on engagement, information processing, and reflective practice. Combining robotics, rubrics, and AI promotes technological literacy, self-regulation, and responsible use of digital systems, contributing to early crisis-management skills.
Xanthi Kokkinou, Chaido Mizeli, Nafsika Koulaxidou +2
Jul 5, 2026physics.geo-ph

Generative wave propagator

Seismic wavefield simulation is fundamental to seismology, but conventional finite-difference (FD) methods remain limited by numerical dispersion and stability constraints, which often require dense spatial grids and small time steps and thereby severely limit the effectiveness of iterative inversion workflows. We introduce a conditional diffusion-based wavefield propagator that advances seismic wavefields recursively from one time step to the next. Instead of learning an unconditional data distribution of wavefield evolution, the model is conditioned by a short history of recent wavefield time steps (snapshots), the velocity model, and the wavefield time step index, allowing it to represent the conditional transition between adjacent physical states. By training the network to directly predict the clean next wavefield snapshot, this strong physical conditioning makes it possible to replace the iterative reverse diffusion process with a single network evaluation for each predicted snapshot. To improve stability over long recursive rollouts, we further introduce a causal time-weighted loss, in which adaptive weights, accumulated as exponential moving averages of per-snapshot training errors, emphasize training directions that are consistent with the forward propagation sequence and reduce the amplification of one-step prediction errors. Because the learned propagator is tied to the temporal spacing of the training snapshots rather than to the FD stability limit, it can advance the wavefield using a physical time step ten times larger than that required by the underlying solver. Experiments on the Overthrust, SEG/EAGE, and Marmousi models show that the proposed method accurately reproduces wavefield snapshots and shot gathers and achieves an end-to-end speedup of 2.17 x over a GPU-accelerated tenth-order staggered-grid FD implementation under matched hardware conditions.
Shijun Cheng, Tariq Alkhalifah
Jun 30, 2026cs.LG

Probabilistic Inversion with Flow Matching

We demonstrate the application of Flow Matching, a technique originating from generative Artificial Intelligence, to probabilistic inversion in geophysical settings, such as seismic Full-Waveform inversion. We adapt the well-established mathematical theory of Flow Matching from generative Artificial Intelligence to the context of probabilistic inversion. We evaluate the approach with two case studies: a simple 2D velocity model to illustrate the general features of the method, and the OpenFWI dataset to show its capabilities for probabilistic inversion of more complex seismic velocity models.
Baldur Paulwitz, Stefan Buske
Jun 28, 2026physics.geo-ph

Two kinds of robustness are not the same: disentangling fault tolerance and low-SNR robustness in multi-domain event detection on real data

Reliable event detection underpins induced-seismicity monitoring for Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) and geothermal operations, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), and industrial condition monitoring. In each setting a detector must stay reliable both when sensors fail and when the signal is buried in noise. These two failure modes are routinely conflated, and architectural complexity is often credited with robustness it may not deserve. We assemble a unified binary event-detection benchmark from three physically distinct real sources -- Hi-net seismic waveforms, Utah FORGE 2024 borehole DAS, and MAFAULDA industrial vibration -- each mapped to a common 8-channel, 256-sample representation, and evaluate a fault-tolerant detector (CEPHALON) trained with per-sample sensor-dropout against standard detectors (a 1D convolutional network, a temporal convolutional network, and a compact Transformer) trained with an identical recipe. On clean data every model is near-perfect (AUC ~ 0.99). Under progressive sensor loss, simple models with sensor-dropout are already robust and CEPHALON holds no advantage. Under additive noise, however, CEPHALON degrades far more gracefully: at -2.5 dB its overall AUC is 0.939 versus 0.532-0.572 for the convolutional baselines. Same-architecture ablations isolate the cause: disabling internal redundancy at inference reduces the low-SNR advantage only modestly, whereas removing sensor-dropout training collapses it (0.899 to 0.603 at -5 dB). The training recipe is therefore the dominant cause and parallel redundancy only secondary. We release a complete, numbered, reproducible pipeline so that every figure can be regenerated.
Isao Kurosawa
Jun 23, 2026cs.LG

Geo-Strat-RL: Learning Geological Event Reasoning from Verifiable Tasks

To evaluate whether vision-language models can reason about geological histories, it is necessary to construct observations for which the underlying process history is known. Furthermore, reasoning over geological histories is not just a question of recognizing visual patterns, but also of understanding temporal and structural relationships that may be only indirectly visible or highly ambiguous. When ground-truth event histories are not uniquely identifiable or are unavailable, it remains an open challenge to teach models capable of visual reasoning to produce valid geological reconstructions that are consistent with both observed evidence and geological principles. We therefore investigate whether defining a verifiable geological reasoning task can improve geological event reconstruction across observation domains through reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To this end, we present Geo-Strat-RL, a synthetic environment that generates stratigraphic observations and compact visible-evidence event histories. The environment combines a geological generator with an executable verifier that scores chronology, event identity, deposition, and structural relationships. We show that RLVR improves geological reconstruction in vision-language models (VLMs), increasing geological content scores on held out stratigraphic diagrams. We further evaluate the same held-out geological histories in a synthetic seismic observation domain by converting the generated scenes into acoustic-impedance-derived amplitude sections. In this controlled paired-renderer setting, we present evidence that geological reasoning learned from stratigraphic diagram-domain RLVR training transfers to synthetic seismic representations without seismic-specific training examples, supporting the hypothesis that RLVR can teach reusable geological reasoning concepts across related observation formats.
Lukas Mosser
Jun 22, 2026physics.geo-ph

Tensor Train Decomposition-based 3D Implicit Full Waveform Inversion with Multi-scale Structural Similarity

Three-dimensional full waveform inversion (3DFWI) is a powerful technique for reconstructing high-resolution subsurface velocity models. However, its application is often limited by high memory requirements, computational costs, and sensitivity to cycle skipping. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel tensor train (TT) decomposition-based 3D implicit full waveform inversion framework (TT-3DIFWI) combined with a multi-scale structural similarity (M-SSIM) objective function. In this framework, the 3D velocity model is represented by TT decomposition as a product of a series of low-rank core tensors. Then, three axis-specific implicit neural network representations (INR) based on one-dimensional vector coordinates as input are constructed to predict these core tensors, rather than directly predicting the velocity model. This INR reparameterization method based on TT decomposition can significantly reduce the memory consumption of INR training while maintaining the accuracy and resolution of the 3D velocity model reconstruction. Meanwhile, the low-rank structure of TT decomposition also ensures the structural consistency of the reconstruction velocity, thereby improving the accuracy and continuity of the inversion result. Furthermore, the M-SSIM objective function can compare the multi-scale structural differences between predicted and observed data, and utilize the ultra-low frequency features to reduce cycle skipping. Numerical experiments on synthetic and challenging land datasets demonstrate that TT-3DIFWI with M-SSIM achieves accurate and continuous velocity reconstruction, even with poor initial models or missing low-frequency data.
Liangsheng He, Chao Song, Tiansheng Chen +2
Jun 19, 2026physics.geo-ph

Bayesian three-dimensional seismic travel-time tomography for active- and passive-source seismic data using physics-informed neural network

Accurate 3D seismic velocity modeling through seismic travel-time tomography using both active- and passive-source data provides critical underpinning models for seismicity monitoring and hazard assessment. Because travel-time tomography is an inherently ill-posed inverse problem, UQ of the estimated models using Bayesian methods is also important for reliable downstream interpretations and analyses. However, Bayesian inference for 3D tomography based on conventional grid-based representations faces the ``curse of dimensionality'' and severe computational bottlenecks. Consequently, rigorous Bayesian UQ for margin-wide 3D travel-time tomography has remained largely unexplored. In this study, we propose a meshless 3D Bayesian travel-time tomography method that combines PINNs with a neural representation of the velocity structure, enabling tractable and data-efficient Bayesian inference through function-space particle-based variational inference. To efficiently integrate passive-source data into the Bayesian estimation of the velocity structure, we conduct analytical marginalization treating uncertain source parameters as nuisance parameters, with passive-source relocation carried out in post-processing. We validated the capability of our approach for 3D problems through synthetic experiments. Furthermore, we applied the method to a real-world dataset from marine active-source surveys and natural earthquakes off the Kii Peninsula, Nankai Trough. Our probabilistic 3D ensemble successfully resolves key geological features and provides data-consistent uncertainty maps. The posterior mean hypocenters shifted mainly in the vertical direction by 10-15 km, consistent with a previous relocation result. Finally, the neural representation drastically reduces storage requirements for the entire ensemble velocity model, highlighting the scalability and data efficiency of the proposed framework.
Ryoichiro Agata, Kazuya Shiraishi, Gou Fujie +1
Jun 17, 2026stat.ML

Bridging Data Gaps in Structural Fragility Modeling through Transfer Learning: Methodology and Case Studies

This paper presents a methodology-centered transfer learning framework for fragility adaptation under domain shift, class imbalance, and scarce target labels while preserving engineering interpretability and supporting decision-making under uncertainty. Four transfer learning strategies (instance-based, parameter-based, hierarchical Bayesian, and multi-source) are demonstrated through three complementary case studies: (i) instance-based transfer learning via importance weighting, demonstrated on coastal bridge fragility using Hurricane Katrina observations; (ii) parameter-based transfer learning together with hierarchical Bayesian transfer learning, enabling partial pooling across strata and posterior uncertainty quantification, demonstrated on residential building fragility using Hurricane Ian observations; and (iii) multi-source transfer learning that fuses multiple analytical fragility models with learned source weights and regularized target-domain adaptation, demonstrated on seismic bridge fragility using observations from the 2001 Nisqually earthquake. Across these case studies, direct transfer of source models (i.e. using existing state-of-the-art models) fails under domain shift and severe class imbalance, while targeted adaptation substantially improves failure detection and predictive stability in low-data regimes. These findings highlight the need for systematic guidance on diagnostics, strategy selection, and uncertainty reporting when developing and adapting fragility models.
Narges Saeednejad, Jamie Ellen Padgett
Jun 15, 2026cs.CV

Contrastive Learning for Seismic Horizon Tracking with Domain-Specific Priors

Unsupervised 3D seismic horizon tracking faces a key limitation: signal-based propagators provide accurate trace-level alignment but often fail near faults, whereas texture-driven deep models are more robust to discontinuities, typically at the cost of labeled data requirements and reduced trace-level precision. We propose a self-supervised fusion of both paradigms in which signal-derived local horizon correspondences act as domain-specific priors to train a texture-based deep learning model. Specifically, we estimate reliable trace-to-trace flows from reflector slopes and use them to form positive pairs in a contrastive objective, while restricting training to high-confidence neighborhoods, optionally augmented with a fault mask. The objective is not to infer ambiguous correspondences close to discontinuities, but to preserve horizon identity across them. As a result, the network learns voxel-wise embeddings that preserve local signal continuity while enabling horizon propagation beyond discontinuities through similarity search. Experiments on the public F3 dataset and a faulted synthetic dataset achieve lower mean absolute error (MAE) than unsupervised baselines and competitive performance against a semi-supervised method using a single labeled slice.
Alexandre Thouvenot, Lionel Boillot, Vincent Gripon
Jun 14, 2026cs.CV

Domain-Guided Prompting of the Segment Anything Model for Seismic Interpretation: The Role of Attributes, Visualization, and Hybrid Prompts

The advent of large pretrained foundation models for computer vision has significantly improved the efficiency of visual data interpretation. The Segment Anything Model (SAM), in particular, offers powerful zero shot segmentation capabilities through prompt based interaction, thus making it a promising tool for seismic interpretation. However, most existing applications of SAM rely on fine tuning for specific geological targets, which requires extensive labeled data, incurs high computational cost, and often compromises the model's generalization capability. In this study, we introduce a principled framework for zero shot adaptation of foundation models to seismic data. The framework is built on two key components: (1) aligning seismic attributes and visualization choices (e.g., colormaps) with the geological target of interest, and (2) employing a hybrid prompting strategy that combines sparse user defined point prompts with dense mask prompts derived from SAM's internal feature activations. We systematically evaluate this framework across multiple geological targets, datasets, prompt configurations, and seismic attribute representations. Our results demonstrate that geologic target aware selection of seismic attributes and colormaps, combined with hybrid prompting, enhances the separability of geological features and improves boundary delineation and segmentation accuracy relative to point based prompting alone. Our findings show that, when these components are jointly applied, SAM can achieve competitive segmentation performance in a fully zero shot setting, thereby eliminating the need to retrain SAM for each geologic feature. This work establishes a practical and scalable pathway to leverage foundation models in seismic interpretation, reducing reliance on labeled data while preserving model generality.
Aniq Ahmad, Heather Bedle, Ahmad Mustafa
Jun 13, 2026cs.LG

Learning Earthquake Wave Arrival Time Picking from Labels with Inaccuracies

Inaccurately labeled training data, or "label noise", poses a significant threat to the integrity of supervised machine learning models. This corruption directly degrades performance by teaching the model erroneous mappings between features and labels, which leads to poor generalization and reduced accuracy on properly labeled validation and test data. Current seismological applications mainly rely on large-scale training sets or data augmentation to reduce the label-noise impact, which can be labor-intensive and costly. Here, we introduce a Label Noise-Contrastive Robust Learning (LaNCoR) approach that can effectively handle noisy labels in seismic signal processing tasks, without requiring large-scale training datasets. In this approach, the input waveform feature and label representation distributions are aligned in the feature space to correct mislabeling and reduce its impact on the training process. We present LaNCoR's performance on the task of P-phase arrival-time picking of real microseismic data using two baseline models and training approaches. Our results indicate that LaNCoR can improve performance by up to 28.8% across performance metrics. This approach holds great promise for model training in seismology and geosciences.
Sen Li, Xu Yang, S. Mostafa Mousavi +5
Jun 12, 2026cs.CV

Deep Learning in Seismic Interpretation: Federated Advances in Salt Dome Segmentation

Salt-dome delineation is a critical, high-impact task in subsurface geological interpretation, driving decisions in hydrocarbon exploration, reservoir modeling, and drilling safety. While convolutional encoder-decoder architectures have delivered significant improvements in automated salt segmentation, their widespread application is severely limited by data sovereignty concerns, dataset bias, and the scarcity of labeled seismic volumes. This paper introduces FedSaltNet, a Federated Learning (FL) framework explicitly engineered for robust, generalizable, and privacy preserving salt-dome segmentation. We couple a lightweight Small U-Net backbone, chosen for its efficiency and regularization properties with a novel Foreground-Weighted (FG-WEIGHTED) aggregation strategy designed to tackle domain-specific class imbalance. Through an extensive comparative study emulating non-IID conditions across four diverse seismic datasets (TGS, SEAM, F3, GBS), we demonstrate two critical findings: The FG-WEIGHTED algorithm effectively mitigates data heterogeneity, yielding a 4.0% relative improvement in Intersection over Union (IoU) over the best conventional FL method. The simple U-Net architecture proved essential, outperforming the higher capacity ResNet-18 U-Net variant by 166% in average IoU, underscoring the necessity of architectural simplicity in data-constrained federated environments. FedSaltNet provides a validated, high-performance solution that establishes the viability of federated deep learning for collaborative, next-generation subsurface interpretation.
Muhammad Zain Mehdi, Muhammad Zaid, Owais Aleem
Jun 12, 2026cs.CL

Coping in Crisis: Computational Modeling of Coping Styles in Digital Crisis Discourse During the 2023 Turkiye Earthquake

How do people cope when disaster strikes and can we detect it at scale, in real time, from what they write? This study addresses that question using over one million Turkish-language tweets posted in the aftermath of the February 6, 2023 earthquake in Turkiye, which unfolded in a deeply polarized political context just months before a national election. Drawing on Lazarus and Folkman's (1984) coping theory, we develop a multi-label BERTurk classifier to detect three coping styles (problem-focused, emotion-focused, and meaning-making) across four theoretically motivated crisis phases. BERTurk achieves a macro F1 of 0.693, substantially outperforming a zero-shot mDeBERTa baseline (macro F1 = 0.324). Applied to the full corpus, the classifier reveals a clear temporal trajectory: problem-focused coping dominates the urgency phase and declines sharply, emotion-focused coping rises and stabilizes, and meaning-making increases monotonically. Anger correlates most strongly with meaning-making (Spearman r = 0.387), suggesting it functions as a mobilizing force toward blame attribution rather than practical action. These findings demonstrate that coping theory can be reliably operationalized in real-world digital crisis data and that doing so can help humanitarian organizations tailor their responses to where a population actually is.
Şevval Çakıcı
Jun 12, 2026cs.LG

Decoupled Latent Optimization of Diffusion Models for Full Waveform Inversion

Full waveform inversion (FWI) recovers subsurface velocity from seismic recordings by solving a severely ill-posed, nonconvex PDE-constrained optimization. Classical regularizers stabilize the inversion but fail to reproduce realistic geological structures; recent diffusion-prior methods improve realism at the cost of a fragile trade-off between data fidelity and prior consistency. We propose Decoupled Latent Optimization (DLO), which relaxes the standard latent-optimization formulation into a quadratic-penalty objective over an auxiliary physical variable and a latent variable. The data-fidelity gradient acts in physical space, the diffusion sampler contributes only through a decoded prior sample, and the standard smoothed-velocity initialization of classical FWI is preserved. On the OpenFWI benchmark, DLO outperforms classical regularizers and existing diffusion-based methods under clean, noisy, and missing-trace acquisitions. The prior, trained on 70*70 OpenFWI models, transfers directly to the Marmousi and Overthrust benchmarks, where DLO recovers intricate fault structures and remains robust to initialization smoothing and measurement noise.
Chen Min, Zheng Ma
Jun 9, 2026cs.LG

When Do Autoregressive Sequence Models Forecast Physical Wavefields? A Controlled Study on Synthetic Seismograms

Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect. We ask when such rollout stays stable, using synthetic three-component seismograms as a physically structured testbed and the \textsc{SeismoGPT} autoregressive forecaster as the model under study. Through controlled, intra-architecture ablations evaluated on free-running rollout with paired significance tests, we isolate the contribution of each design choice. Multi-token prediction is the dominant stabilizer, accounting for almost the entire improvement over a single-token baseline (+0.040+0.040 median NCC); a horizon-embedding hybrid prediction head and a cross-horizon STFT-magnitude coherence loss each add a small but consistent further gain. Performance depends sharply on a context-ratio threshold near one, roughly the full P-S interval of observed signal, below which rollout generalization collapses. The dominant residual failure is a polarity inversion that a magnitude-based spectral loss cannot, by construction, penalize, identifying phase-aware objectives as the natural next step. We frame this as a controlled study of rollout stability on oscillatory wavefields, not a benchmark of forecasting architectures.
Waleed Esmail, Stuart Russell, Jana Klinge +2
Jun 9, 2026cs.CV

Building Change Detection in Earthquake: A Multi-Scale Interaction Network and A Change Detection Dataset

As one of the most destructive natural disasters, earthquakes have struck many countries around the world in recent years, causing serious economic losses. Change detection (CD) can be applied to post-earthquake damage assessment as it can infer destroyed change regions from multi-temporal remote sensing images. Furthermore, the CD with short imaging interval will better satisfy the needs of the emergency rescues after earthquakes. However, the capability of current methods built on deep neural networks is limited because the dataset with short imaging interval is absent. To meet post-disaster immediate relief, we create a CD dataset, Turkey earthquake CD dataset (TUE-CD), for the evaluation of building damage in the short term after an earthquake. Because of the short acquisition interval of the post-event images, the imaging angle is different for different temporal images, which leads to some side-looking problems. To deal with these challenges, we present a multi-scale feature interaction network (MSI-Net) for efficient interaction between bi-temporal features, as well as mitigating the effect of side-looking problems. Specifically, the proposed MSI-Net consists of joint cross-attention (JCA) modules, multi-scale offset calibration (MOC) modules, and feature integration (FeI) modules. The JCA module unifies channel cross-attention and spatial joint attention for sufficient feature interaction. The MOC module further estimates the offsets to align the bi-temporal image with the multi-scale features. Finally, calibrated features and multi-scale features are fused by FeI modules for the prediction of changed areas. Experiments on the WHU-CD, CLCD, and the constructed TUE-CD dataset indicate that the proposed MSI-Net provides better results than considered state-of-the-art CD methods.
Yunlong Liu, Zekai Zhang
Jun 5, 2026physics.geo-ph

GNSS-FM: A Self-Supervised Foundation Model for Daily GNSS Displacement Time Series

Displacement time series from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are essential for a wide range of applications, including monitoring tectonic crustal deformations and investigating the different stages of the earthquake cycle. Machine learning methods have proven promising for GNSS applications; however, most remain fully supervised. This creates a bottleneck as labeled data are scarce, even though large amounts of unlabeled GNSS data are freely available. We present GNSS-FM, a self-supervised foundation model for daily GNSS time series. The model uses a dual-stream input combining displacement and velocity-like increments, and is pretrained using a masked latent prediction objective with vector-quantized targets adapted from wav2vec 2.0, with several modifications for geodetic data. Pretrained on data from over 17,000 globally distributed GNSS stations, an analysis of the learned codebook suggests that the representations capture the main signal types in GNSS displacement data, including seismic offsets, tectonic drift, and seasonal patterns. The foundation model is later fine-tuned on two downstream tasks, namely 90-day displacement forecasting and seismic step localization, where it outperforms strong task-specific baselines in both cases. These results show that self-supervised pretraining is a promising approach for GNSS time series analysis.
Nick Teutschmann, Laura Crocetti, Fanny Lehmann +2
Jun 4, 2026cs.CV

T-SAR-JEPA: Self-Supervised Temporal Anomaly Detection in SAR Amplitude Stacks via Latent Prediction

We present T-SAR-JEPA, a self-supervised framework for temporal anomaly detection in SAR amplitude stacks via latent prediction. A ViT-Base/16 encoder from SAR-JEPA is domain-adapted on 39,300 Capella patches using local masked reconstruction with gradient feature prediction. A temporal transformer with sinusoidal time encoding forecasts future latent states from K=7 acquisitions, with progressive unfreezing substantially reducing validation loss. The model operates on amplitude alone; InSAR coherence serves exclusively as independent pseudo-ground-truth. On the DFC 2026 dataset (300 time-series, three AOIs), T-SAR-JEPA achieves ROC-AUC of 77.0% on the Hawaii eruption window, outperforming RX, PaDiM, Linear AR, and LSTM baselines (~50%). Spatial coherence of 99.9% (p < 0.001, permutation test) confirms structured detections. Code: https://github.com/TerraLatent/t-sar-jepa
Kerod Woldesenbet, Abem Woldesenbet
Jun 1, 2026astro-ph.IM

Data-Driven Forecasting of three-Component Seismograms Using Transformer Architectures

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce \textsc{SeismoGPT}, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100,km, epicentral distances of 10--90^\circ, and magnitudes 3Mw73 \leq M_w \leq 7. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves a median normalized cross correlation of 0.93 or higher. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.
Waleed Esmail, Stuart Russell, Jana Klinge +2
May 31, 2026physics.geo-ph

Accelerating physics-informed neural networks for full waveform inversion using a hybrid quantum-classical finite-basis architecture

Full waveform inversion (FWI) reconstructs heterogeneous material properties from receiver data but remains computationally demanding. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and their domain-decomposed variants (FBPINNs) offer a mesh-free alternative but face convergence challenges when representing complex velocity fields. We present a hybrid quantum-classical FBPINN for acoustic FWI, bringing together quantum computing and classical machine learning, in which the decomposed wavefield network and the global velocity network are implemented as classical-to-quantum pipelines terminating in parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs). The PQCs are realized as differentiable JAX statevector simulators, enabling end-to-end automatic differentiation through the classical PINN, the quantum circuit, and the physics-informed loss. On a geophysical anomaly benchmark, the quantum hybrid reaches a lower L1 velocity error than the primary classical FBPINN baseline in approximately 8x fewer training iterations, despite using approximately 33% fewer trainable parameters, and it outperforms all 15 classical hyperparameter variants tested. A second benchmark (checkerboard) demonstrates the generality of the inversion pipeline, confirming that the quantum hybrid architecture can recover structured spatial variations beyond the localized anomaly benchmark. Our framework is broadly applicable to wave-based inverse problems beyond geophysics, including medical ultrasound tomography and non-destructive evaluation.
Hoang Anh Nguyen, Divakar Vashisth, Ali Tura
May 28, 2026cs.LG

SubsurfaceGen: Procedural Generation of Field-Scale Earth Models and Seismic Data

Full waveform inversion (FWI) is the gold standard for subsurface imaging, with applications from carbon sequestration to energy and mineral exploration to earthquake hazard assessment. Machine learning approaches to FWI need field-scale, geologically diverse, and physically realistic training data, but existing resources such as Marmousi, SEAM, and OpenFWI fall short on spatial extent, temporal extent, geological diversity, and physical realism. We address these limitations with SubsurfaceGen, a GPU-accelerated generator for 3D velocity models and seismic data. Along with SubsurfaceGen, we release a paired dataset of 4,276 2D velocity slices, 5 s wavefields, and 8 s shot gathers drawn from 42 realistic, field-scale 3D velocity models, each spanning 10 km x 10 km laterally and 6.19 km deep at 10 m resolution. The dataset spans six geological settings -- four built with SubsurfaceGen and two drawn from prior sources -- relevant for carbon sequestration and hydrocarbon exploration. We use this dataset to evaluate neural operators on wavefield prediction and encoder-decoders on end-to-end velocity inversion, holding out one geological setting for out-of-distribution testing. These experiments surface failure modes at field-scale and demonstrate how SubsurfaceGen and the associated dataset can impact ML-based FWI.
Joseph Stitt, Pratik Rathore, Madeleine Udell +1
May 26, 2026cs.LG

When do complex-valued neural networks help? A study of representation, geometry, and optimization

Complex-valued Neural Networks (CVNNs) are often motivated by domains where information is naturally encoded in magnitude and phase. Yet complex-valued inputs alone do not determine when complex arithmetic improves learning: the label signal may lie in amplitude, phase, their coupling, or a symmetry that real-valued models can also represent under suitable coordinates. We study this through a representation-first evaluation of CVNNs against Cartesian real, polar, phase-only, magnitude-only, parameter-matched real, and FLOP-matched real baselines. Across synthetic RF tasks, complex representations are useful but not universally superior. PSK-only tasks favor phase-aware and complex-valued models, QAM-only tasks favor magnitude-based models, mixed PSK+QAM gives only a small complex-valued advantage, and unseen carrier-phase rotations break coordinate-dependent models without augmentation. Similar patterns appear beyond RF: in quantum-wavefunction prediction, momentum is invisible to ψ|ψ| but recoverable from phase, while EEG analytic-signal experiments show that phase locking, amplitude bursts, and phase-amplitude coupling each favor different coordinate views. We also identify a benchmarking artifact on RadioML 2018.01A. Under matched-shared-trial selection, a CReLU complex model exceeds the best real baseline by 22.94 PP; under independent per-family tuning on the same data and 16-trial search space, the gap collapses to 2.46 PP. Gradient analysis traces the inflated gap to high-learning-rate first-step instability in real baselines, while complex parameter coupling distributes the loss signal more robustly. A learning-rate ×\times activation factorial confirms the failure is primarily hyperparameter-driven. Overall, CVNNs are best viewed as structured inductive biases whose gains depend on representation, symmetry, and optimization, not as universally superior architectures.
Ashutosh Kumar
May 25, 2026cs.LG

MULTISEISMO: A Multimodal Seismic Dataset and Model for Cross-Modal Seismic Understanding

The application of generalist multimodal models (GMMs) to specialized scientific domains remains limited due to the scarcity of comprehensive domain-specific datasets that integrate multiple data modalities beyond text and images. In seismology, understanding earthquake phenomena requires the synthesis of timeseries waveform data, geographical imagery, and contextual metadata, a multimodal integration absent in existing seismic datasets. We present MultiSeismo, a large scale structured multimodal seismic dataset, comprising over 16K seismic events spanning 13 years (2010 to 2023) across diverse geographical regions. Each event data integrates waveform recordings from global station networks, intensity maps, population exposure visualizations, and a comprehensive textual description within a standardized JSON format. We additionally develop MISCE, a multimodal instruction set on top of raw data to enable supervised training and evaluation of GMMs on seismic reasoning tasks ranging from basic information retrieval to complex cross modal analysis. We leverage MISCE to finetune an existing multimodal model (Unified IO 2) enhanced with a specialized timeseries encoder, which yields SeisModal, the first domain specific multimodal model for comprehensive seismic analysis. Evaluation of state of the art multimodal models on MultiSeismo reveals significant challenges, particularly with time-series data processing for general purpose models, while demonstrating SeisModal's superior performance on seismic multimodal reasoning tasks. These results prove that MultiSeismo provides a rigorous benchmark for future multimodal research in seismology and validate the success of our domain specific architectural adaptations.
Sai Munikoti, Ian Stewart, Chengping Chai +4
May 21, 2026cs.LG

ImplicitTerrainV2: Wavelet-Guided Spatially Adaptive Neural Terrain Representation

Digital elevation models (DEMs) underpin terrain analysis in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), but in their common raster form, they rely on interpolation for off-grid sampling and finite-difference operators for derivative-based analysis. Implicit neural representations (INRs) offer a continuous alternative, but prior terrain INRs lack explicit frequency control, neglect the gradient structure of terrain, and remain too large and costly to train for practical deployment. We present ImplicitTerrainV2, which advances terrain INRs toward a compact, efficient neural terrain data format by combining a spectral control mechanism with wavelet-guided spatial adaptivity, derivative-aware supervision, and post-training model compression. At its core, a wavelet complexity field (WCF) derives spatially-adaptive frequency masks from analytically computed wavelet coefficients, localizing high-frequency capacity to complex terrain regions. The same field guides complexity-aware adaptive sampling that concentrates training in high-complexity regions, while gradient matching applies extra supervision to enforce the smooth manifold structure of terrain DEMs for improved derivative fidelity. Post-training mixed-precision quantization and entropy coding reduce storage to 1.23 bpp with a 0.28 dB PSNR drop. On 50 Swiss terrain tiles, ImplicitTerrainV2 reaches 66.25 dB end-to-end PSNR, improving over the prior work by 5.70 dB while using 3.2x fewer parameters and training in 55 s per tile on a single GPU. Our compressed neural format is competitive with several established DEM codecs in rate-distortion performance, while additionally supporting off-grid point queries, closed-form derivative evaluation, and resolution-independent reconstruction, which may benefit many downstream GIS applications.
Haoan Feng, Xin Xu, Leila De Floriani
May 20, 2026physics.geo-ph

Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity Forecasting: Per-Cell Dispersion Estimation and Tail Risk Assessment

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from Central Asia (2010-2024), where a likelihood-ratio test with boundary correction strongly rejects the Poisson hypothesis (p < 10^{-179}). The main contribution of this work is the EarthquakeNet architecture, which provides an endogenous per-cell estimate of the overdispersion parameter alpha via a neural network (spatial embeddings + MLP), without explicit spatial covariance specification. In contrast to existing negative binomial regression approaches in seismological forecasting, which typically assume a single global alpha, the proposed per-cell formulation allows the model to identify spatial heterogeneity in seismic clustering and to construct probabilistic risk-aware alerts via quantiles of the predicted distribution. A walk-forward evaluation (2018-2023) over four systems shows an 8.6 percent reduction in mean pinball deviation (MPD) relative to a negative binomial GLM baseline. The strongest improvements are observed in the tail regime (Y >= 5), where the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of the proposed model is 12.5 percent lower than that of the baseline, indicating improved calibration in extreme-event forecasting.
Alim Igilik
May 19, 2026cs.LG

OpenSeisML: Open Large-Scale Real Seismic and well-log Dataset for Generative AI

The advent of machine learning (ML) and computer vision has significantly accelerated seismic inversion workflows by reducing the computational cost of traditionally expensive iterative methods. However, the development and evaluation of ML methods remain limited by the scarcity of realistic velocity models, as most high-quality data are privately owned by oil and gas companies. To address this gap, we present OpenSeisML, a collection of real seismic datasets designed to support generative AI (Gen-AI) workflows for seismic inversion. The datasets are curated from publicly available surveys in the UK National Data Repository (NDR). When seismic volumes are in the time domain and wells are in depth, a time-to-depth conversion is required. We use checkshot data to establish the time-depth relationship and construct a velocity model through interpolation for accurate conversion of post-stack seismic data. Here, we present an automated data curation pipeline that enables seismic data preparation while ensuring reproducibility. The objective is to train a generative model that captures the statistical distribution of subsurface properties, enabling the synthesis of multiple statistically consistent realizations for uncertainty quantification which can act as a prior for seismic inversion.
Ipsita Bhar, Huseyin Tuna Erdinc, Thales Souza +2
May 16, 2026physics.geo-ph

Radial-Component Predominant-Mode Inversion of Rayleigh Waves: Application to DAS-based Site Characterization

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) has emerged as a transformative technology for near-surface site characterization. When a vertical source is activated along the fiber, DAS measures only the in-line (radial) component of Rayleigh-wave motion. Dispersion data extracted from radial-component waveforms may differ from those obtained from vertical-component measurements, particularly under complex stratigraphic conditions. Hence, a component-consistent forward problem is desired when inverting radial-component DAS dispersion data to retrieve accurate shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles. This study presents a radial-component predominant-mode (RCPM) inversion framework designed for DAS-based surface-wave analysis that explicitly accounts for source-receiver directivity and modal sensitivity of the Rayleigh-wave radial component. The proposed approach matches measured dominant radial dispersion trends with the theoretical mode exhibiting the maximum modal participation. As a result, the RCPM framework eliminates the need for explicit modal indexing, provides a component-consistent interpretation of radial-component dispersion data, and substantially reduces reliance on subjective analyst-driven modal interpretations. The RCPM approach is systematically evaluated using three synthetic ground models and two field DAS datasets. The synthetic results demonstrate that modal energy distribution differs significantly between vertical and radial components in the presence of strong velocity contrasts and velocity reversals, and that conventional inversion approaches may misinterpret modal behavior, resulting in less accurate Vs profiles. In contrast, the RCPM method consistently captures the correct modal response and yields reliable Vs profiles. Application to two field DAS datasets further demonstrates good agreement between the inverted Vs profiles and independent invasive borehole measurements.
Mrinal Bhaumik, Brady R. Cox
May 14, 2026math.NA

Amortized Energy-Based Bayesian Inference

We consider amortized Bayesian inference for nonlinear inverse problems in settings where only samples from the joint distribution of parameters and observations are available. Classical methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo require solving a new inference problem for each observation, which can be computationally prohibitive when inference must be repeated many times. We propose a transport-based approach that learns an observation-dependent map pushing forward a reference measure to approximate the posterior distribution. The map is trained by minimizing an averaged energy-distance objective between the true posterior and the learned pushforward. This formulation is likelihood-free, requiring only joint samples, and avoids density evaluation, invertibility constraints, and Jacobian determinant computations. For function-space inverse problems with Gaussian priors, we parameterize the transport map as the identity plus a perturbation in the Cameron-Martin space of the prior, preserving absolute continuity with respect to the prior. In infinite-dimensional settings, the map is represented using neural operators. We illustrate the method on a finite-dimensional nonlinear inverse problem and two PDE-constrained inverse problems arising in porous medium flow and seismic inversion. The results show that the learned transport captures posterior structure, including multimodality and dominant modes, while enabling fast posterior sampling for new observations.
Hojjat Kaveh, Ricardo Baptista, Andrew M. Stuart
May 14, 2026quant-ph

Quantum Feature Pyramid Gating for Seismic Image Segmentation

Accurate salt-body delineation is essential for seismic interpretation because salt structures distort wave propagation, complicate velocity-model building, obscure reservoir geometry, and increase uncertainty in exploration and drilling decisions. Although hybrid quantum-classical models have shown competitive performance on small-scale image-classification tasks, their value for dense, pixel-level geophysical prediction remains largely untested. This work introduces quantum feature gating, a hybrid segmentation architecture that embeds a parameterized quantum circuit (PQC) at feature-fusion points within an encoder-decoder pipeline. A 4-qubit, 2-layer PQC with data re-uploading computes a learned convex combination of lateral and top-down features at each Feature Pyramid Network merge point. A global-average-pooling layer maps encoder features to a fixed 4-dimensional quantum input, decoupling the 72-parameter quantum budget from backbone size and image resolution. The method is evaluated on the 2018 TGS Salt Identification Challenge using 4,000 seismic images at 101 x 101 resolution, across two integration topologies, eight circuit variants, and six encoders with 8M to 118M parameters under five-fold cross-validation. In a controlled EfficientNetV2-L ablation at 256 x 256 resolution, replacing the three Quantum FPN Gates with element-wise addition while holding the encoder, loss schedule, splits, and threshold search fixed reduces mean IoU from 0.9389 to 0.8404, a 9.85 percentage-point gap. Inserting the same circuit as skip-connection attention in a custom U-Net improves IoU by 0.88 points over the SolidUNet baseline, showing that the PQC contribution depends on where and what it gates. These results provide controlled evidence that quantum feature fusion can improve dense seismic segmentation.
Taha Gharaibeh, Jyotsna Sharma
May 14, 2026cs.LG

QuChaTeR: A Hybrid Quantum-Chaotic Temporal Framework for Earthquake Prediction

Seismic prediction remains challenging due to the highly nonlinear and chaotic dynamics of earthquake signals. While classical deep learning models such as LSTMs and CNNs capture local temporal features, and quantum models offer richer state representations, their integration with chaos-driven mechanisms is underexplored. We introduce QuChaTeR, a hybrid architecture that combines wavelet-based preprocessing, chaotic maps, and variational quantum circuits with recurrent structures to enhance temporal feature extraction. Implemented in PyTorch and PennyLane, QuChaTeR is benchmarked against classical (LSTM, GRU, RNN, 1D-CNN, Reservoir Computing) and quantum-inspired (Quantum LSTM) baselines. On real-world seismic datasets, QuChaTeR consistently converges faster and achieves superior performance across multiple evaluation criteria. Despite promising results, scalability and quantum hardware limitations remain challenges. Overall, this work demonstrates how quantum-chaotic hybridization provides a practical pathway toward more accurate and robust earthquake prediction.
Emir Kaan Özdemir
May 14, 2026physics.geo-ph

Deciphering Neural Reparameterized Full-Waveform Inversion with Neural Sensitivity Kernel and Wave Tangent Kernel

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) estimates unknown parameters in the wave equation from limited boundary measurements. Recent advances in neural reparameterized FWI (NeurFWI) demonstrate that representing the parameters using a neural network can reduce the reliance on the high-quality initial model and wavefield data, at the cost of slow high-resolution convergence. However, its underlying theoretical mechanism remains unclear. In this study, we establish the neural sensitivity kernel (NSK) and the wave tangent kernel (WTK) to analyze their convergence behavior from both model and data domains. These theoretical frameworks show that the neural tangent kernel (NTK) induced by neural representation adaptively modulates the original sensitivity and wave tangent kernels. This modulation leads to several key outcomes, i.e., the spectral filtering effect, the gradient wavenumber modulation, and the wave frequency bias, connecting the convergence behavior of NeurFWI with the eigen-structures of NSK and WTK. Building on these insights, we propose several enhanced NeurFWI methods with tailored eigen-structures in NSK and WTK to improve inversion performances and efficiency. We numerically validate these theoretical claims and the proposed methods in seismic exploration, and firstly extend their application to medical imaging.
Ruihua Chen, Yisi Luo, Bangyu Wu +2
May 11, 2026physics.geo-ph

Deploying Self-Supervised Learning for Real Seismic Data Denoising

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a promising approach to seismic data denoising as it does not require clean reference data. In this work, the deployment of the Noisy-as-Clean (NaC) method was evaluated for real seismic data denoising under controlled conditions. Two independent seismic acquisitions, each comprising noisy and filtered data, were organized into four real datasets. The NaC SSL method was adapted to add real noise to the noisy input, controlled by a parameter. An experimental protocol with ten experiments was designed to compare different strategies for deploying the NaC SSL method with the supervised learning baseline, using identical network topology and hyperparameters. The models were evaluated in terms of denoising performance, computational cost, and generalization capability. The results show that the synthetic additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) is inadequate for the denoising of seismic data within the NaC method, and performance strongly depends on the compatibility between the injected and actual noise characteristics. Furthermore, both the characteristics of the seismic data and the noise level influence the performance of the model. Self-supervised fine-tuning on test data has improved SSL performance, whereas no such gain was observed for fine-tuning of supervised models. Finally, NaC has shown to be a simple, effective, and model-independent method that offers a feasible solution for the denoising of real seismic data.
Giovanny A. M. Arboleda, Claudio D. T. de Souza, Carlos E. M. dos Anjos +6
May 11, 2026astro-ph.GA

Stellar Age Compression Reshapes Interpretations of the Milky Way Thick-Disk Formation History

The formation timescale of the Milky Way thick disk is one of the central debates in Galactic archaeology. The age-metallicity relation (AMR), formation timescale, and chemical evolution gradients are frequently used to infer a rapid assembly, short-timescale enrichment, and bursty formation history of the thick disk. However, stellar ages are not directly observable, introducing the potential risk that inferred ages may harbor a systematic compression tied to observational quality. In this paper, we use the same stellar sample and identical physical covariate matching conditions, but two independent age scales--spectroscopic inferred ages (astroNN) and asteroseismic ages (APOKASC-3)--to compare the observable signatures of the thick-disk formation history. We find that several key observables previously supporting a rapid thick-disk formation are systematically weakened under seismic anchoring: the AMR slope flattens from -3.29 to -1.86 Gyr dex-1 (Delta a = +1.43), the formation timescale widens from 3.04 to 3.55 Gyr, and the peak formation age shifts from 9.1 to 6.0 Gyr. Through transport inversion experiments, we further show that additive noise can only broaden the age distribution and cannot reproduce the above pattern, whereas a compressive transport map (lambda < 1) simultaneously reproduces a narrower age distribution, a steeper AMR, and rapid-formation-like observables. This result indicates that the compression transformation itself is sufficient to generate rapid-formation-friendly observables without requiring an intrinsically bursty formation history. Our findings reveal that statistical interpretations of the Milky Way formation history may depend sensitively on the stellar age definition itself.
Zhipeng Zhang
May 11, 2026physics.geo-ph

Total Generalized Variation regularization closes the gap between neural-eld and classical methods in seismic travel-time tomography

Travel-time tomography forces a trade-off between mesh resolution and stability in which the regularizer choice dominates what can be recovered. We introduce MIMIR, a differentiable framework that represents the 2D velocity field as a Fourier-feature neural network, replacing the grid-based slowness vector with a continuous, infinitely differentiable function. Prior neural-field tomography has staircased smooth fields under total-variation (TV) priors or oscillated near interfaces under L2L^2 Laplacian smoothing. We adopt second-order total generalized variation (TGV2^2) and parametrize its auxiliary vector field as a second neural network jointly optimized with the velocity field, eliminating the inner Chambolle-Pock primal-dual loop that classically dominates TGV computation. On three synthetic benchmarks (Gaussian, horizontally layered, curved-fault inspired by OpenFWI) using cross-well acquisition, 5% travel-time noise, and five seeds, MIMIR-TGV2^2 ties a classical FMM-LSMR baseline with auto-tuned hyperparameters on the Gaussian (p=0.134p=0.134, paired tt-test) and significantly outperforms it on layered (p<0.0001p<0.0001, 44% RMSE reduction) and curved-fault (p=0.0002p=0.0002, 33% reduction). Replacing TGV2^2 with TV degrades performance on Gaussian (p=0.004p=0.004) and layered (p=0.003p=0.003); curriculum-annealed TV improves Gaussian RMSE by only 5.4%, confirming that TV's staircase bias is intrinsic to the regularizer rather than a scheduling artifact. The results empirically validate the Bredies-Kunisch-Pock prediction that piecewise-affine priors are better suited to subsurface velocity recovery than piecewise-constant TV priors. We argue that the central design choice in physics-informed neural-field inversion is not the network architecture but the regularizer. The full pipeline reproduces in under one hour on consumer hardware.
Isao Kurosawa
May 10, 2026physics.geo-ph

Evaluating PhaseNet on Teleseismic Data with MsPASS

Numerous studies have shown that the machine-learning picker PhaseNet produces accurate P and S picks on local earthquake signals, but its performance can degrade sharply on teleseismic signals. To address this limitation, we present a reproducible MsPASS workflow that (i) enables scalable data preparation and management for large seismic archives and (ii) supports standardized PhaseNet training and inference. We assembled a control dataset of 1.6 million waveforms linked to teleseismic P-wave picks made by analysts at the USArray Array Network Facility (ANF). The control dataset confirms that the PhaseNet model trained on regional signals performs poorly on these data. We then trained PhaseNet from scratch on the training split of the ANF control dataset and evaluated it on a non-overlapping held-out test split, increasing P-pick recall by 741.5% and yielding 683.9% more picks within a 0.1s residual window. We also evaluated PhaseNet across different model sizes on both CPUs and GPUs. Increasing the model size by about 120 times improved precision and recall by 15.6% and 23.2%, respectively. However, the scaled model reduced inference throughput by 87.2% on an NVIDIA A100 GPU and by 97.3% on a 128-core high-performance CPU node. These results indicate that scaling PhaseNet is more practical on GPUs than on CPUs, and that simply enlarging the model is not an efficient way to achieve large accuracy gains.
Jinxin Ma, Yinzhi Wang, Gary L. Pavlis +1
May 10, 2026physics.geo-ph

Real-Time Earthquake Magnitude Classification from Initial P-Waves: Models, Dataset, and Comparative Analysis for South Asia

Rapid earthquake magnitude estimation is crucial for effective early warning systems that can save lives and reduce economic damage. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of magnitude classification using only the vertical component of the initial 7-second P-wave window from a single station. We compare six machine learning approaches that range from traditional models to state-of-the-art deep learning architectures. We also curated a novel dataset of 7,318 earthquake events in South Asia. The dataset was categorized into five Richter-scale classes: slight (3.0-3.9), light (4.0-4.9), moderate (5.0-5.9), strong (6.0-6.9) and severe (>= 7.0). Our experiments show that deep learning models substantially outperform traditional approaches. Our Transformer based architecture achieved 76.23% standard accuracy and 81.56% adaptive accuracy with 4.8 ms inference latency. The adaptive-accuracy metric is introduced for the inherent uncertainty in magnitude estimation of near class boundaries. These results indicate that the attention mechanisms in Transformers combined with adaptive classification effectively capture the temporal dynamics of seismic signals. The architectural advantage facilitates promising generalization to rare high-magnitude events, despite the inherent data scarcity characteristic of seismic catalogs. The adaptive accuracy provides a more realistic assessment of model performance, and the result suggests viability for real-time deployment.
Md Nasiat Hasan Fahim, Md. Abid Ullah Muhib, Rayhanul Amin Tanvir +1
May 8, 2026physics.geo-ph

Functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) provide a mesh-free framework for solving PDE-constrained inverse problems, but their extension to Bayesian inversion still faces a fundamental difficulty: prior distributions are typically defined in the weight space of neural networks, whereas physically meaningful prior assumptions are more naturally expressed in function space. In this study, we introduce a unified framework, termed functional-prior-based approaches to Bayesian PDE-constrained inversion using physics-informed neural networks (fpBPINN), to incorporate functional priors into Bayesian PINN-based inversion. We consider two complementary approaches. The first is a functional-prior-informed Bayesian PINN (FPI-BPINN), in which a neural network weight prior is learned to be consistent with a prescribed functional prior, and Bayesian inference is subsequently performed in weight space. The second is function-space particle-based variational inference for PINNs (fParVI-PINN), which performs Bayesian estimation using ParVI directly in function space. We also show that random Fourier features (RFF) play an important role in representing Gaussian functional priors with neural networks and in improving posterior approximation. We applied the proposed approaches to one-dimensional seismic traveltime tomography and two-dimensional Darcy-flow permeability inversion. These numerical experiments showed that both approaches accurately estimated posterior distributions, highlighting the significance of introducing physically interpretable functional priors into Bayesian PINN-based inverse problems. We also identified the contrasting advantages of FPI-BPINN and fParVI-PINN, namely flexibility and accuracy, respectively.
Ryoichiro Agata, Tomohisa Okazaki
Apr 30, 2026physics.geo-ph

Parameter-Efficient Adaptation of Pre-Trained Vision Foundation Models for Active and Passive Seismic Data Denoising

The demand for high-resolution subsurface imaging and continuous Earth monitoring has driven rapid growth in active and passive seismic data from dense geophone deployments, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) arrays, and large-scale 2D and 3D surveys. This expansion makes complex noise suppression increasingly challenging, especially when signal fidelity must be preserved. Conventional supervised deep learning methods are often task-specific, require large paired datasets, and can suffer from domain shift under new acquisition conditions. Foundation models offer a promising alternative, but pre-training seismic foundation models from scratch requires massive domain-specific data and substantial computation. We propose an efficient framework that repurposes general-purpose Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) for geophysical tasks through Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning. The architecture uses a pre-trained VFM, a DINOv3 encoder, adapted with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to enable effective feature adaptation with few additional parameters. To improve robustness under unseen field conditions without ground truth, we introduce a kurtosis-guided unsupervised test-time adaptation module that updates only LoRA parameters during inference. This module self-calibrates the model to site-specific noise by identifying information-rich regions via kurtosis and performing self-training without labeled data. Experiments on public exploration seismic images and DAS vertical seismic profiling data from the Utah FORGE site show that the framework matches or outperforms domain-specific models. Tests on unseen cross-site data from a land survey in China and the Groß Schönebeck geothermal site in Germany further demonstrate strong generalization and effective signal-noise separation. These results highlight the potential of adapting pre-trained VFMs to data-intensive problems in exploration seismology.
Jiahua Zhao, Umair bin Waheed, Jing Sun +3
Apr 30, 2026cs.LG

Stable but Wrong: An Inference Limit in Galactic Archaeology

Statistical inference in observational science typically relies on a fundamental assumption: as sample size increases and uncertainties decrease, the inferred results should converge to the true physical quantities. This assumption underpins the notion that big data lead to more reliable conclusions. In Galactic archaeology, stellar ages inferred from spectroscopic surveys are widely used to reconstruct the formation history of the Milky Way disk. The age metallicity relation (AMR) and its derived formation timescale are often regarded as key physical diagnostics of early disk evolution. This interpretation carries an implicit premise: that observational quality does not introduce systematic bias into age inference. Here we show that this premise may fail. Using a large sample of subgiant stars, we identify a region in the observational quality parameter space (signal-to-noise ratio and parallax precision) where the inferred formation timescale exhibits a systematic offset of 0.5-1 Gyr relative to an independent asteroseismic reference, while the statistical uncertainties remain small, thus producing a stable-but-wrong inference state.
Zhipeng Zhang
Apr 16, 2026stat.ML

Expert-Guided Class-Conditional Goodness-of-Fit Scores for Interpretable Classification with Informative Missingness: An Application to Seismic Monitoring

We study a classification problem with three key challenges: pervasive informative missingness, the integration of partial prior expert knowledge into the learning process, and the need for interpretable decision rules. We propose a framework that encodes prior knowledge through an expert-guided class-conditional model for one or more classes, and use this model to construct a small set of interpretable goodness-of-fit features. The features quantify how well the observed data agree with the expert model, isolating the contributions of different aspects of the data, including both observed and missing components. These features are combined with a few transparent auxiliary summaries in a simple discriminative classifier, resulting in a decision rule that is easy to inspect and justify. We develop and apply the framework in the context of seismic monitoring used to assess compliance with the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. We show that the method has strong potential as a transparent screening tool, reducing workload for expert analysts. A simulation designed to isolate the contribution of the proposed framework shows that this interpretable expert-guided method can even outperform strong standard machine-learning classifiers, particularly when training samples are small.
Shahar Cohen, David M. Steinberg, Yael Radzyner +1
Sep 14, 2025stat.ML

Maximum diversity and weighting for invariants of periodic time series

Magnitude, obtained as a special case of Euler characteristic of enriched category, represents a sense of the size of metric spaces and is related to classical notions such as cardinality, dimension, and volume. While the studies have explained the meaning of magnitude from various perspectives, continuity also gives a valuable view of magnitude. Based on established results about continuity of magnitude and maximum diversity, this article focuses on continuity of weighting, a distribution whose totality is magnitude, and its variation corresponding to maximum diversity. Meanwhile, recent studies also illuminated the connection between magnitude and data analysis by applying magnitude theory to point clouds representing the data or the set of model parameters. This article will also provide an application for time series analysis by introducing a new kind of invariants of periodic time series, where the invariance follows directly from the continuity results. As a use-case, a simple machine learning experiment is conducted with real-world data, in which the suggested invariants improved the performance.
Byungchang So
Date pendingcs.LG

Using Seismic Statistical Features and VQ-VAE to Improve Spatiotemporal Seismicity Predictability

In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package. We here extend this previous work in two key ways, focusing on data from Japan as a large dataset is necessary in order to allow for the training of a deep learning (autoencoder) model. First, we move from whole-region prediction (considering, for each candidate event, the likelihood of an event M \geq 5.0 anywhere in the region in the next 15 days) to localised predictions in which both the region of feature computation and the region of prediction are restricted to a circle of radius 24 km around the candidate event, and we show that performance remains excellent, similar to our previous whole-region study for the same area. Second, we here couple this proven set of SSFs, based on one-dimensional (catalogue) data, with a novel feature based on magnitude-stratified two-dimensional seismic maps, obtained by training a VQ-VAE model to reproduce such maps as output and identifying a measure of its error in doing so with anomalies in magnitude distribution reflecting a localised build-up of crustal stress. We show that while localised prediction based only on a set of SSFs can be effective, with test AUC values as high as those obtained in the case of Japan in our previous whole-region study, the inclusion of the new natively-spatial VQ-VAE-derived feature, top-ranked by SHAP analysis, both improves prediction and points toward a new approach that might allow computationally time-demanding traditional seismic features to be entirely set aside.
Wei Quan, Denise Gorse