Surprisal

Suppose we observe the first $n$ points of a sequence of random variables having length $n+1$, and wish to estimate a functional of the unobserved final point and the empirical measure of the $n$ observed training points. Such next-token functionals include the probability that the next token is novel (also known as the surprise probability), the tail probability of the minimum distance between the next token and training points, and the test error of a classifier trained on the observed points. All of these quantities are classically estimated by the leave-one-out method, which is inconsistent under temporal dependence. We propose a leave-a-window-out estimator, which deletes a window of length $τ$ after each index before forming the empirical measure and reduces to leave-one-out at $τ= 1$. Under natural assumptions, we show that the error of our estimator decays at a parametric rate for any stationary $β$-mixing process that also admits a Marton coupling. Our results thus cover several natural functionals on a large class of stochastic processes. We complement these upper bounds with a sharp minimax lower bound for estimating the surprise probability on mixing Markov chains. Simulations on Markov chains, moving-average processes, and autoregressive processes show that our estimator succeeds in many scenarios where leave-one-out and add-constant baselines fail.

Large language models (LLMs) with human-like performance on linguistic tasks have transformed the study of language in neurodiverse conditions. LLMs provide representations of linguistic input in the form of high-dimensional vectors (embeddings), and next-token predictions computed from these embeddings. Previous crosslinguistic evidence suggests a complexity reduction in the form of both lower intrinsic dimensionality (ID) of LLM representations and higher mean surprisal (prediction error) in psychosis. We hypothesized that these metrics reflect a general deficit of information compression in psychosis, linked to grammatical organization as what enables predictions in language.We operationalized surprisal difference as the difference between surprisal as estimated from word frequency and surprisal as based on a contextual LM, which is sensitive to grammatical organization over and above lexical concepts. Using a dataset of 144 Turkish speakers, including 106 patients with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (SSD) - 56 with chronic schizophrenia (SZH), 33 with first-episode psychosis (FEP), and 17 with schizoaffective disorder (SZA) - and 38 healthy controls. We report: (1) Surprisal difference is attenuated in all clinical groups relative to controls, independently of word count; (2) Compressibility (intrinsic dimension) is reduced in SZH and FEP; (3) Syntactic complexity and compressibility both predict surprisal difference. These results, further refining an alteration in the geometry of the semantic space in psychosis as previously attested, suggest a broader deficit in information compression in this disorder, with a mechanistic underpinning in the operations of grammar.

An information theory-based framework is proposed in attempt to explain insistence on sameness in autism as an instance of a general behavior pattern in which an individual tries to reduce surprise and uncertainty. It offers a new definition of autism as an impairment in which cognitive functions are restricted to discrimination, memorization and prediction of tangible properties of the environment. An analogy between insistence on sameness and constrained minimization of the entropy metric is observed and examined for a set of assumptions that describe cognitive limitations of a person with autism. The metric is given by the formula $D_H(R, M) = H(R|M) + H(M|R)$, where $R$ represents sequences of random stimuli, $M$ is a memory that stores and retrieves them, and where $H(.|.)$ denotes their conditional entropies interpreted as surprise and uncertainty, respectively. It is first inferred that to minimize the metric an individual can learn about $R$ (and store that knowledge in $M$) or can restrict $R$ to the already known $M$. Then, it is concluded that insistence on sameness is a manifestation of the latter. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed framework: (1) Helps to quantify the concepts of surprise, uncertainty, sensory overload and deprivation, anxiety, comfort zone, disappointment, disorientation, pedantry, rigidness, observance or aberrant precision. (2) Leads to a list of guidelines for learning therapies and daily care routines, and allows them to be defined as optimization algorithms and implemented as programs for robotic live-in caregivers. (3) Can be validated with the help of a Turing test-like approach that requires no experiments involving individuals with autism. The framework-if positively validated-will provide formal foundations and design guidelines for therapies aimed at improving self-reliance of individuals with autism in basic activities of daily living.

Vision models do not form a representation at once; each block revises it. We ask whether the resulting computation path contains evidence that the final representation discards, and whether that evidence improves OOD detection and image classification on clean and shifted data. Unlike approaches that treat intermediate layers as separate snapshots, we retain sample identity across depth and study the transformations connecting successive states. We separate class-coherent transport from input-specific innovation, and coordinate movement from relational reorganization. Across supervised, self-supervised, vision--language, hierarchical, and convolutional encoders, these paths show strong sample-specific continuity and architecture-specific depth profiles that recur across datasets. They are also practically useful. An ID-only transition-surprise score complements strong final-state detectors, reducing FPR95 in 131/152 non-saturated comparisons on a balanced OpenOOD grid; gains are largest for visually disruptive and semantically far shifts, and remain positive on near-OOD for most detectors. Frozen update probes improve 71/72 clean model--dataset cases, while shifted-data gains vary with architecture and corruption type. Computation paths therefore provide a broadly useful reliability signal whose value is determined jointly by model organization and the shift encountered.

Surprisal theory holds that the human processing difficulty of a linguistic unit in context is an affine function of its surprisal under some language model. I argue this claim is a tautology without further constraint: for any non-negative difficulty measure over units in context, there exists a language model whose surprisal is an affine function of it under mild technical conditions. Therefore, because any pattern of difficulty is consistent with some language model, without an additional constraint on the language model, surprisal theory makes no falsifiable predictions. The tautology was long obscured by an assumption implicit in two decades of psycholinguistic work---that the relevant language model is the distribution that generated the training corpus, so that improving corpus fit improves predictions of human behavior. Recent empirical work has undermined this assumption, demonstrating that better corpus models can be worse predictors of processing difficulty. I conclude that breaking the tautology requires a rationalist intervention, i.e., the relevant language model must be derived from a non-empirically motivated model of the comprehender, which could be based on, for instance, memory constraints or processing goals, and that, thus, does not depend on the behavioral data surprisal theory is meant to explain.

Surprisal Theory is often characterized as a computational-level explanation per (Marr, 1982). We argue in this work that, even though a computational level narrative has been used to support "representation-agnostic research" within computational psycholinguistics, the movement toward black box systems embodied by large language models (LLMs) does not exempt modelers using the surprisal metric from the representational decisions required by computational-level characterizations. In fact, we argue that the uncritical use of LLM-surprisal obfuscates the representational and algorithmic-level commitments of different models. In three analyses, we show that the choice of algorithm and model architecture play significant roles in the computation of language model probabilities. We advise that researchers who wish to test Surprisal Theory re-evaluate the practice of treating large language model probabilities as interchangeable

When a language model must choose one answer from a large space of equally valid options, a format clause -- "Reply with JSON only" -- changes which answer it chooses. We re-run the One-Word Census (arXiv:2607.12796): 31 wide-answer-space category prompts asked of 44 models, now with the reply requested in JSON -- no schema enforcement, no constrained decoding, only the request. Convergence deepens sharply: on the unconstrained "Pick a word" prompt the modal answer rises from 41% to 64% of the pool and distinct answers fall from 52 to 36; mean answer-choice surprisal drops from 1.80 to 1.58 bits. The tax is progressive: six of 44 models move individually (BH-FDR q=.10), all toward the mode, led by the most distinctive models, while the conformist floor is immobile. It is a sharpener, not a re-indexer -- the plain-chat modal answer survives in 28 of 31 categories. Defaults are register-indexed: a within-run re-sample (n=20) finds JSON shifts 53% of a model's stable chat defaults, mostly back to the crowd, and installs defaults absent from chat (Claude Fable 5 answers "cerulean" for colour 0% of the time in chat, 100% in JSON). Full-battery controls reveal a register gradient: compression is significant and specific to the answer-delivery formats models are trained to speak (JSON -0.22 bits, p=.0002; XML -0.19, p=.002), absent for YAML and CSV, and reversed for an arbitrary bracket wrapper (+0.13, p=.009) -- weighing the mechanism toward tool-use post-training. Enforcing the schema at the decoder (response_format) compresses no further than the request (-0.03 bits): the collapse lives in the model's response to the register, not the decoder. Structured output is how software consumes language models, and that surface is served by a measurably more homogeneous model than the chat surface on which models are evaluated, compared, and chosen.

Streaming autoregressive diffusion makes minute-scale video synthesis practical, but its bounded context and fixed denoising schedule allocate resources uniformly across a highly non-stationary sequence. A rolling key-value cache forgets distant visual evidence even when that evidence remains important, while every generated chunk receives the same number of denoising passes irrespective of its actual difficulty. We introduce Surprise Forcing, a training-free framework that treats both limitations as online resource-allocation problems. A Surprise-Gated Memory Bank summarizes evicted frames with value-token descriptors, evaluates them using complementary global-deviation and nearest-neighbor novelty signals, and regulates admission through a feedback-controlled budget in normalized score space. Priority-based replacement and relevance-aware routing then keep the external memory compact and useful. In parallel, Surprise-Aware Denoising estimates chunk difficulty from the maximum adjacent-frame cosine distance after the first denoising pass and uses a local percentile scheduler to skip intermediate steps for comparatively easy chunks. Experiments on VBench, VBench-Long, and VBench-2.0 show that the proposed allocation strategy improves long-horizon consistency and visual quality while retaining real-time streaming throughput.

Across environments with mixed sources of uncertainty, unsupervised reinforcement learning requires intrinsic motivation that does not precommit to a particular direction of surprise. Surprise minimization is scoped by design to ``unstable'' environments. Prediction-error curiosity rewards total expected surprise, including irreducible noise. Bandit or mixture switching between surprise-minimizing and surprise-maximizing rewards reintroduces non-stationarity by construction. We propose a single intrinsic reward, stationary within each window, derived from the novelty contribution of a preference-free Expected Free Energy objective, expressed in reward-maximization form. Our claim is that parameter information gain, the expected surprise of the next state minus its irreducible part, is the appropriate intrinsic signal in both high-entropy and low-entropy components of the state space. Maximizing it seeks exactly the surprise the model can explain away. In regions of unresolved dynamics, this epistemic term drives exploration. As dynamics become resolved, the epistemic term vanishes, while an aleatoric penalty favors lower-variance transitions, all without fitting an explicit next-state predictor. A pseudocount supplies epistemic value, a probe-based penalty captures aleatoric variance, and a short-horizon gate protects informative successors. A window-based freeze of all reward-defining objects yields a stationary Bellman operator, explicit bounds on learning targets, and a conditional uniform-concentration result for the nonparametric estimators under mixing, smoothness, bandwidth, and capacity assumptions. In active-inference terms, the agent is preference-free where novelty is retained, standard likelihood ambiguity vanishes under full observability, a nonstandard transition-entropy penalty is added, and surprise minimization emerges in resolved regions of the state space.

A variety of self-supervised image clustering approaches are invented in the past years. However, all dominant approaches are exploitative: The direction of parameter updates is determined by known states (observed input samples and existing parameters). We propose an explorative self-supervised learning framework that steps out of this zone. We define a surprise score that measures how unlikely the model's output representation is, assuming that all pixels are i.i.d. random noise. Maximizing the surprise score forces the deep learning model to reject the random noise null hypothesis, or equivalently, to discover non-randomness from data. Also, we propose a fundamental assumption: a surprise score cannot, in general, be fully optimized by exploitative optimization approaches. Thus, we propose the converge-to-surprise scheme to optimize a model: an evolution-strategy (ES) outer loop, which maximizes the surprise score using the mutation-selection mechanism, paired with a periodic gradient-descent inner loop, which uses the surprising clusters already discovered by ES as surrogate targets. On simple image benchmarks, our framework trained from scratch achieves new state-of-the-art results in non-parametric self-supervised image clustering --- the strictest deep-clustering setting, where the number of classes is unknown during training.

The uncanny valley is a long-standing empirical rule in humanoid robot design: making robots more human-like can reduce, rather than increase, affinity. Yet existing guidelines, such as adopting robot-like appearances, avoiding excessive realism, and reducing cross-modal mismatches, remain difficult to use for algorithmic design because they are not expressed as manipulable variables. Here, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian generative model that operationalizes these guidelines as mathematical design variables. The model represents affinity toward humanoid robots as posterior-weighted negative category-conditional surprise and explains category ambiguity and perceptual mismatch as increases in surprise. It maps uncanny-valley mechanisms onto four variables: deviation from the predicted robot-category mean, inconsistency in human likeness across modalities, prediction uncertainty, and observational uncertainty. Simulations showed that category ambiguity and appearance--motion mismatch can produce affinity reductions, and that uncertainty reshapes the valley. In a human-subject experiment with robot--human morphing images, we manipulated prediction uncertainty using blurred prior robot stimuli and observational uncertainty using blurred evaluation stimuli. Increased observational uncertainty attenuated the decrease in familiarity ratings at intermediate human likeness, whereas low prediction uncertainty increased ratings for robot-like appearances. This framework turns empirical uncanny-valley heuristics into a computational basis for algorithmically evaluating and optimizing humanoid robot appearance and behavior.

Self-supervised latent world models can assign a surprise score to driving scenarios without any human labels. A natural follow-up question is whether such a model, trained on driving data from one geographic region, can generalize its notion of complexity to unseen cities and sensor configurations. We study this question through a controlled transfer experiment: we train JEPA-based world models on nuPlan data (Pittsburgh, Boston, Singapore) and evaluate zero-shot on held-out Argoverse 2 validation scenarios from Miami and Austin. We find that models trained on geographically diverse data generalize significantly better than models trained on equal amounts of single-geography data. In a matched-scale ablation at 63,000 scenarios per condition (n=3 seeds each), combined training reduces mean surprise score by 16.5% relative to nuPlan-only training (0.228 +/- 0.015 vs 0.273 +/- 0.008). Notably, training on 200,000 AV2-only scenarios (3x more data from one geography) still produces higher surprise (0.264) than the combined 63K model, suggesting that geographic diversity is a stronger predictor of cross-domain generalization than raw data volume.

When evaluator-derived step rewards are pooled or compared across scoring channels, their sign is treated as transportable. Yet the same frozen transition can change sign with the scoring channel. Process rewards vary agent states, while evaluator audits vary scoring configurations; neither first difference isolates their interaction. We define Agent Step Value (ASV) as channel-indexed target-margin gain and identify the missing state-by-channel interaction by replaying complete faces. Of 1,100 PubMed open question-answering transitions, 1,004 were complete across four cyclic layouts. Their mean update is positive under direct scoring (+0.163 [0.102, 0.218]) and negative with an externally generated view (-0.160 [-0.244, -0.079]), giving an interaction of -0.323 [-0.418, -0.232]. Across paired transitions, 507/1,004 cross zero in one direction or the other. Matched templates isolate a generated-minus-quote interaction of -1.121 [-1.534, -0.703]. Its direction remains negative after the readout and evaluator-stack changes, and quote yields a higher paired area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for stored success at all three bridge vertices. Because the two views preserve the same task information conditional on the retained state, a representation-invariance null predicts equal responses and success rankings across them. ASV provides a transport audit for evaluator-derived step measurements; causal actor credit lies outside its estimand.

Word surprisal is a well-established computational predictor of human neural responses during language comprehension, but it remains less clear whether local semantic fit explains neural response variation beyond lexical expectation during naturalistic reading. Using the Dublin EEG-based Reading Experiment Corpus (DERCo), this study examined whether contextual semantic relevance predicts word-locked EEG activity in the N400 and P600 windows. Contextual semantic relevance was computed as an attention-aware measure of how strongly a target word is semantically connected to its recent discourse context, and it was compared with GPT-based word surprisal. Across 22 participants and 32 EEG channels, we tested both predictors using regression-based ERP analyses and generalized additive mixed models while controlling for lexical variables and repeated observations. Both predictors were reliably associated with EEG responses, but they showed partly different temporal and scalp-level patterns. Surprisal captured expectancy-related variation, whereas contextual semantic relevance showed robust effects across N400- and P600-window mean voltages, with particularly strong explanatory support in the P600 window. Model comparisons indicated that contextual semantic relevance contributed explanatory value beyond lexical controls and surprisal. These findings suggest that naturalistic reading depends on both lexical expectation and local semantic integration, and that contextual semantic relevance offers an interpretable computational link between discourse semantic fit and ERP dynamics.

Tactile perception is indispensable for contact-rich manipulation, yet integrating it into Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models often induces modality collapse, where high-bandwidth visual features overshadow sparse tactile cues. Inspired by Predictive Coding, a neural mechanism where the brain attenuates predictable inputs to prioritize surprising stimuli, we propose ResTacVLA. Rather than treating tactile data as raw input, we reformulate it as a Residual Tactile Representation capturing the discrepancy between visual priors and physical sensations. By filtering out visually predictable dynamics, this formulation transforms sparse tactile signals into dense, high-value information gain, thereby inherently resolving the bandwidth mismatch. These residuals are discretized through a Vector Quantized (VQ) bottleneck into Latent Contact Primitives that capture critical events missed by vision. Analogous to the neural surprise signal, we leverage the uncertainty of the visual prior to adaptively gate tactile integration, prioritizing residuals specifically during visually unreliable phases to explicitly prevent visual dominance. Experimental results show that ResTacVLA consistently outperforms all baselines on a diverse set of contact-rich manipulation tasks, while remaining robust to unexpected dynamic disturbances. Project page: https://awilekong.github.io/ResTacVLA/

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a powerful tool for propelling Large Language Models (LLMs) beyond imitation-based training towards more robust reasoning capabilities. Among existing approaches, RL with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a pivotal paradigm for advancing LLM reasoning. Despite its empirical success, recent studies have offered different insights. One line of inquiry advocates prioritizing high-entropy token positions during training, while another perspective cautions against allowing low-probability tokens to dominate gradient updates. Notably, although high-entropy tokens are usually correlated with low probability, both paradigms empirically yield substantial performance gains. In this work, we argue that evaluating sampled-token probability or entropy in isolation is insufficient to capture the policy optimization dynamics. To resolve this tension, we introduce the Relative Surprisal Index (RSI), a principled, information-theoretic metric that naturally couples the token's entropy with the probability of the selected token. We show that, under mild conditions, RSI is related to the local ratio between the first-order variations of the logit-gradient norm and predictive entropy under a selected-logit perturbation. Building on RSI, we propose RSI Selection (RSI-S), an entropy-adaptive token filtering method that retains tokens within a stable RSI interval. RSI-S successfully reconciles previous contradictory paradigms and filters out both redundant low-surprisal tokens and unstable high-surprisal tail tokens. Empirical evaluations show that RSI-S achieves higher avg@32 accuracy across different model scales (Qwen2.5-1.5B, 3B, and 7B) on AIME and AMC benchmarks: RSI-S improves avg@32 accuracy by 2--3 percentage points over GRPO. Overall, RSI offers a promising perspective for RLVR improvement.

We study a single idea across two settings: that a prediction-error signal, computed by a small predictor over the latent space of a frozen encoder, can serve both as a gate on plasticity and as a substrate for metacognition. In the first system, a non-parametric episodic memory writes a new concept only when this surprise is high, and a periodic offline replay phase consolidates recent traces into a slow linear readout. On a continual stream of 1000 ImageNet classes with a frozen DINOv2 or I-JEPA backbone, the consolidation phase recovers 17.7 points of retention on the oldest classes for DINOv2 and 51.3 points for I-JEPA (single-seed runs), and an ablation shows that replaying only a recent window is worse than no replay at all. In few-shot evaluation the same memory reaches 91.6% on 5-way 1-shot mini-ImageNet, above a task-specific baseline, while a harder 500-way regime exposes the true difficulty. In the second system, the same surprise signal, computed in a shared text-image space, modulates the behaviour of a vision-language model: it answers assertively when a concept is known, hedges when it is partially familiar, and refuses to identify the object and asks for an explanation when it is novel, learning the concept from a single user utterance. The external detector separates known from novel concepts at an AUROC of 0.966 (95% CI +/-0.024), far above the model's own verbalised confidence (0.618), while its token-level confidence sits below chance under greedy decoding; after a sleep phase that empties the fast store, the system recalls 99.2% of fifty taught facts from the consolidated store while a base model recovers none. We report both systems as proof-of-concept, with explicit limitations, and position the second against recent episodic-memory and personalised-VLM work.

Earnings announcements release two types of information sequentially: quantitative surprise (numeric earnings-per-share (EPS)/revenue versus analyst estimate) arrives first in press releases and financial news, processed by algorithmic traders within minutes; qualitative language (management tone, guidance, question-and-answer (Q&A) credibility) arrives 30-90 min later in the earnings conference call transcript (ECT), requiring human interpretation overnight. Financial economists have studied quantitative surprise for 50 years; natural language processing (NLP) researchers have studied qualitative ECT signals for a decade. Despite studying the same event, the two communities used incompatible frameworks: different targets (return vs. volatility), trading setups (long top-decile and short bottom-decile vs. trade-all), and metrics (return spread between top and bottom 20% (Q5-Q1) vs. mean squared error (MSE)), making direct comparison and connection challenging. We bridge these communities with EarningsInOne, the first corpus aligning earnings news, ECTs, and intraday and next-day prices across SP 1500 (broad U.S. equity universe, 2022-2025). Applying unified trading and evaluation tools to both signal types, we confirm a clean speed separation, fast numbers, slow language: quantitative surprise peaks at announcement and is largely eliminated by the next market open; qualitative ECT sentiment peaks on the next trading day, real and tradeable, but hidden under prior transcript-based evaluation that optimised sign-agnostic volatility with pointwise MSE.

Open-ended scientific discovery with large language models (LLMs) increasingly operates as a long-horizon loop of hypothesis search and verification, where a reward signal guides which hypotheses to test next. A notable recent example is AutoDiscovery, which uses "Bayesian surprise" - the belief shift an LLM undergoes after observing evidence for a hypothesis - as both a discovery metric and a reward for search. We first observe that AutoDiscovery treats surprisal as a static quantity, while surprisal in human reasoning is non-stationary - it is defined relative to beliefs that evolve with experience, a prerequisite for continual scientific discovery. We address this mismatch with evidence-informed LLM beliefs: priors updated with evidence from previous hypotheses to compute non-stationary surprisal for new hypotheses. We compare in-context belief-updating mechanisms and find that embedding-based retrieval-augmented generation over prior discoveries best anticipates eventual posteriors, identifying 37.5% of static surprisals as spurious. We then modify search to avoid these spurious rewards and prioritize hypotheses that remain surprising under non-stationary beliefs. Concretely, we introduce two complementary changes to the original search procedure: belief-update filtering and diversity maximization. Across five discovery domains, our method increases accumulated non-stationary surprisal by 30.62% on average compared to the original search procedure, demonstrating that continual scientific discovery with LLMs requires not only better belief measurement but also search procedures that avoid redundancy and encourage diversity.

Binary classification from positive-only samples is a variant of PAC learning in which the learner receives i.i.d. samples from the positive region of an unknown target concept, but is evaluated under the original distribution (which places mass on both positive and negative regions). This model dates back to Natarajan [1987, STOC], and the characterization of improper learning is well-known -- it even appears in textbooks. The characterization of proper positive-only learning, however, has long remained open. In this work, we revisit and settle this question: a concept class is properly learnable from positive-only samples if and only if it has finite VC dimension and satisfies a new combinatorial condition, which we call uniform exterior separability. Together with several separation results, this characterization reveals a surprisingly rich landscape that differs sharply from standard PAC learning: proper and improper learning are separated, randomized and deterministic proper learning are separated, there are classes for which no ERM is a learner, and finite VC dimension does not suffice even for non-uniform learning. Along the way, we introduce new combinatorial dimensions that we believe can be of broader interest in learning theory.

Garden path sentences present a processing difficulty for humans -- the sentence prefix leads the listener towards one interpretation, until the listener hears a critical word that shows that the initial interpretation was wrong. Lexical surprisal, a measure that usually predicts sentence processing difficulty quite well, fails to provide good predictions for garden path sentences. We propose an alternative that actively predicts a probability distribution over syntactic trees (its syntactic belief) and updates that distribution after each new word. If a processor is led down a garden path, syntactic beliefs will be wrong and will require a large update at the critical word. The magnitude of the update is measured with a generalized Rényi divergence. Crucially, this metric is dependent on lexical items, but is fully independent of the probability of lexical items. This Syntactic Belief Update provides a better fit to the human reading time data on garden path sentences. This suggests a new research direction examining purely non-lexical alternatives to surprisal for psycholinguistics.

Training automated pronunciation assessment often relies on labeled learner errors or non-native corpora that are costly to collect. We propose a lightweight framework trained only on native speech resources, operating unsupervised or lightly calibrated with a small set of scored utterances. At inference, learner speech is discretized with an SSL encoder and a K-means codebook. A token language model trained on native sequences computes surprisal where higher surprisal indicates phonotactic deviation. We add a transcript-guided Text2DUnit--DTW module that predicts native token sequences from reference text and aligns them to acoustic tokens to derive error-sensitive features. Surprisal and alignment features are fused via simple regression. On SpeechOcean762, PCC improves from 0.60 to 0.66 with transcript guidance, near supervised baselines. Cross-dataset evaluation on L2-ARCTIC shows consistent gains.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards algorithms like GRPO have emerged as the dominant post-training paradigm for complex reasoning in LLMs, yet commonly suffer from policy entropy collapse during training. We conduct a first-order gradient analysis of token-level entropy dynamics under GRPO and identify a token-level credit assignment mismatch: the per-token entropy variation decomposes into the product of the trajectory-level advantage and an entropy sensitivity function over the next-token distribution, yielding an advantage-surprisal four-quadrant structure and a near-criticality property. Motivated by it, we propose STARE (Surprisal-guided Token-level Advantage Reweighting for policy Entropy stability), which identifies entropy-critical token subsets via batch-internal surprisal quantiles, selectively reweights their effective advantages, and incorporates a target-entropy closed-loop gate for stable entropy regulation. Across model scales from 1.5B to 32B and three task families (Short CoT, Long CoT, and Multi-Turn Tool Use), STARE sustains stable RL training over thousands of steps while maintaining policy entropy within the target band. On AIME24 and AIME25, STARE outperforms DAPO and other competitive baselines by 4%-8% in average accuracy, with reflection tokens and response length growing in tandem, indicating sustained exploration-exploitation balance that further unlocks RL training potential.Code is available at https://github.com/hp-luo/STARE.

Pairwise comparison is the gold standard for subjective ranking tasks; however, exhaustive annotation requires a massive number of human comparisons ($O(n^2)$). While sorting-based methods have reduced this burden to $O(n\log n)$, they still require expensive human judgment for every single comparison. To further improve annotation efficiency, we propose leveraging a Vision-Language Model (VLM) not as an annotator replacement, but as a \emph{question prioritizer} to identify which comparisons genuinely require human judgment. The proposed \textbf{Surprise-Guided MergeSort (SGS)} framework achieves this through three integrated components: (1) a bottom-up MergeSort scheduler that structures comparisons and exploits transitivity, (2) a composite Surprise Scorer -- combining position-bias-cancelled VLM confidence, Elo gap, and vote entropy -- to quantify comparison ambiguity, and (3) an adaptive budget allocator that routes high-surprise pairs to humans while automating low-surprise pairs via transitivity inference. Validation was conducted on six diverse benchmarks spanning text similarity (STS-B, BIOSSES, SICKR-STS) and image quality assessment (KonIQ-10k, TID2013, LIVE Challenge). SGS effectively identified and skipped up to 535 non-informative comparisons per session. Consequently, it achieved Kendall's $τ{\times}100$ improvements of $+6$ to $+12$ over Active Elo under the same total budget. These results demonstrate that combining VLM-guided surprise metrics with algorithmic sorting provides a generally consistent accuracy-efficiency trade-off across diverse domains.

Human language comprehension unfolds sequentially: each word is processed in the context of those that came before, and the interpretation builds incrementally over time. Surprisal, the negative log probability of a word given its context, has been the dominant predictor of incremental processing cost. But surprisal reduces rich sequential representations to a single scalar at each word, discarding information about the direction in which the interpretation has been evolving. Dynamical-systems approaches suggest that the trajectory of the evolving interpretive state, not just its position at each moment,should shape processing, and language itself may have local momentum, since speakers plan utterances a few words at a time. We introduce trajectory extrapolation error: at each word, we fit a linear trajectory to the preceding hidden states of a transformer language model and measure deviation from the extrapolated path. On the Natural Stories corpus, this measure is nearly orthogonal to surprisal (r = .044) and independently predicts self-paced reading times. The effect is especially pronounced in garden-path sentences, strengthens with model scale (GPT-2 Small to Large), and replicates across architectures with different positional encoding schemes (GPT-2 vs. Pythia/RoPE). A displacement control shows the effect is not reducible to representational change magnitude: displacement and extrapolation error predict in opposite directions. These findings reveal two dissociable components of processing cost: word-level prediction error (surprisal) and sensitivity to the local momentum of the unfolding interpretation (trajectory extrapolation error).

A sentence like "The authors that no critics recommended have ever received acknowledgment for a best-selling novel" is sometimes rated as acceptable even though, strictly speaking, it is ungrammatical because the negative polarity word "ever" is not licensed where it is. This behavioral effect is sometimes called a "negative polarity illusion". Here we propose that the lossy context surprisal theory of Hahn et al. (2022) -- whereby people have an imperfect encoding of complex sentences -- might explain this effect. We hypothesize that people have poor memory representation of the determiners in the main-clause and embedded-clause subjects and could entertain a determiner exchange that licenses ever. We propose that more similar determiners in those positions would trigger stronger illusion effects. Acceptability judgment tasks with six novel determiner pairs (e.g., "few" and "many", "few" and "most") support our proposal, showing, specifically, that a novel sentence, "Many authors that few critics recommended have ever received acknowledgment for a best-selling novel", triggered a much stronger illusion than the canonical one even without time pressure. These results offer further support for the suggestion that human language processing is imperfect and resource-rational: in face of working memory limitations, humans rationally reconstruct what is most likely from noisy linguistic input to facilitate downstream processing.

Robots solving generalist tasks need to be able to ground instructions in their past experience, since humans may refer to notable past events when giving a task (e.g., ``Take me to where the chemical spill happened yesterday''). Since memory limits make storing all past events infeasible, long-term robot memory must be selective, ideally retaining only those episodes with high utility for future tasks. However, future tasks are not typically given a priori for generalist robots. To select generically useful memories, we propose Bayesian surprise as a gating mechanism for memory formation. We present an approach to compute surprise in a semantically rich deployment-agnostic latent space provided by V-JEPA-2. Using our gated episodic memory to augment 4D scene graph-based spatial memory, we show a consistent improvement over state-of-the-art benchmarks in robot question answering, outperforming prior robot memory methods by $\geq12\%$ for temporal, spatial, and binary questions, and surpassing the performance of supervised and non-causal methods with an unsupervised causal method in event segmentation tasks.

Measuring the diversity of creative outputs is central to evaluating post-training mode collapse, comparing decoding strategies, and quantifying creative behavior in both AI and human writing. We propose a new approach to measuring diversity using in-context learning, of which the ``Decan'' metric, $D_{Ca_n} = C \times a_n$, is the working instance we evaluate: a per-byte score read off the per-token log-probabilities of a base model $θ$ in a \emph{single forward pass} per permutation, with no embedding model, no reference corpus, and no human labels. This approach is grounded in information theory, makes use of language model in-context learning to detect a wide range of similarities between any number of inputs, and obviates the need to train a special-purpose model. The same pipeline scores AI samples and human-written response sets, with diversity treated as a property of (responses, prompt, scoring model). On Tevet and Berant's human-grounded McDiv benchmark, $D_{Ca_n}$ reaches OCA 0.846 on the McDiv prompt_gen set where it performs best, behind the strongest neural baseline reported in Tevet and Berant (SentBERT, 0.897). On the OLMo-2-7B post-training pipeline, $D_{Ca_n}$ drops monotonically across the base $\to$ SFT $\to$ DPO $\to$ RLVR stages, detecting the type of diversity loss that creative-writing applications care about.

Editing complex, long-form knowledge in Large Language Models remains a significant challenge due to the difficulty of maintaining generation coherence. Existing autoregressive methods like AnyEdit alleviate length constraints but rely on Fixed-window Chunking, which disregards logical structure and compromises consistency. To address this, we present AnyEdit++, a structure-aware framework incorporating Bayes-Chunk, an adaptive segmentation mechanism that dynamically identifies semantic boundaries based on Bayesian Surprise. We underpin this approach with a theoretical framework establishing two key principles: (1) Structural Independence: we prove that cross-segment interference is minimized when anchor keys are geometrically orthogonal (a condition naturally satisfied by our surprisal-based boundaries but violated by fixed windows), and (2) Causal Locality: we demonstrate that updates injected at these semantic peaks yield strictly superior control compared to arbitrary split points. Extensive experiments across mathematical reasoning, code generation, and narrative tasks demonstrate that AnyEdit++ achieves superior performance and robustness compared to state-of-the-art baselines, validating that structural awareness is critical for effective long-form knowledge editing.

We test whether a relational-style intervention delivered during functional collapse in a small language model produces post-collapse behavior distinguishable from technical feedback, from a lexically-matched scrambled control, and from each of the two pragmatic dimensions in isolation. Using Qwen3.5-4B with a deliberately broken bash tool, we run 300 episodes across six conditions in a matched-pairs design (50 tasks): no intervention (A), technical/impersonal (B), relational/first-person (C), scrambled relational (D), technical/first-person (E), and relational/impersonal (F). E and F form a 2x2 factorial with B and C that dissociates relational structure (acknowledgment, absolution, agency restoration, unconditional acceptance) from sender register (first-person vs. impersonal). We report two main findings. First, an attention-behavior dissociation: attention follows lexical surprise (D > F > C > E > B, all q_FDR < 10^{-10}), with the scrambled message capturing the most attention; yet behaviorally A ~ B ~ D < E ~ F << C. Second, the factorial localizes the C effect: neither relational structure alone (F) nor first-person register alone (E) replicates C's behavioral signature; main effects of both dimensions are individually significant, and the structure x register interaction is significant on persistence (p = 0.046). A third dissociation emerges in emotion probes: F tracks C on 7 of 8 probes despite producing only baseline behavior, indicating that relational structure alone installs a probe-level state that only translates into behavior when paired with first-person register. The model's processing decomposes into three dissociable stages: attention (ordered by lexical surprise), probe-level state (ordered by structure), and behavior (ordered by the conjunction of both).

As video diffusion models (VDMs) advance toward world models, a key question arises: do they truly understand causality, or merely overfit to statistical temporal patterns? Existing benchmarks mostly rely on synthetic data, limiting real-world generalization due to the sim-to-real gap. We present YoCausal, a two-level benchmark inspired by the Violation of Expectation (VoE) paradigm from cognitive science. By temporally reversing real-world videos at zero cost as natural counterfactual samples, YoCausal establishes an arbitrarily extensible evaluation protocol. Level 1 introduces the Reverse Surprise Index (RSI), quantifying arrow-of-time perception via denoising loss. Level 2 introduces the Causality Cognition Index (CCI), which leverages a VLM to stratify datasets into causal and non-causal subsets, disentangling genuine causal reasoning from temporal bias. Evaluation of 13 state-of-the-art VDMs reveals that perceiving the arrow of time does not imply understanding causality, and a significant gap persists relative to human-level causal cognition.

This paper provides an empirical implementation of the creative quality metric proposed in Calibrated Surprise (Zou & Xu, 2026a). The question this paper addresses is: does this mathematical claim hold at the engineering level? To make the answer as general as possible, we deliberately choose the strictest engineering conditions: low data cost and a small base model. Training data comes from approximately 100 expert chain-of-thought (CoT) annotations produced by the BC Protocol (Zou & Xu, 2026b). We also identify a data bias: most publicly available alignment datasets are skewed toward craft-related knowledge, while audience modeling and reality-logic coverage are systematically weak. We use the term Creative Quality Alignment (CQA) to describe this class of engineering methods. We also offer a supporting theoretical observation: in an LLM with a single conditional distribution architecture, calibrating the appreciation side automatically transfers to the generation side via architectural duality. This is the structural reason why ~100 CoT examples are sufficient -- not a purely empirical observation like LIMA (Zhou et al., 2023).

Language models are pretrained as passive predictors with no incentive to model the consequences of their own outputs. Post-training changes this: a model producing its own responses can benefit from recognizing that it is on-policy. We present evidence that post-trained models recognize their on-policy generations, and this recognition is implicitly encoded in their output distributions. In particular, on-policy output distribution entropy is 3--4$\times$ lower than off-policy entropy, across model families and size classes. We trace part of this effect to an internal representation of input surprise, tracking the unlikeliness of the most recent input token according to the model's prior predictions, that causally modulates output entropy. One example of these phenomena can be observed in response to open-ended prompts; post-trained models (unlike pretrained models) collapse their uncertainty over the topic of their upcoming response before the first output token; violating this cached intention with a different-topic prefill results in higher output entropy. We also tested whether models can distinguish on-policy contexts from prefills via explicit verbal report. We find that they can, but that interestingly, this explicit recognition routes through a different mechanism than implicit recognition.

While most frames in long-form video are redundant, the critical information resides in temporal surprises: moments where the actual visual features deviate from their predicted evolution. Inspired by the human brain's predictive coding, we introduce Swift Sampling, an elegant, training-free frame selection algorithm that automatically identifies high-information moments in a video. Specifically, we model a video as a differentiable trajectory in the visual latent space and compute the velocity and acceleration of its features. Then, we apply Taylor expansion to project the expected path of subsequent frames. Frames that diverge sharply from this predicted manifold are identified as temporally surprising frames and selected for sampling. Unlike prior training-free methods that rely on auxiliary networks or video-specific hyperparameter tuning, Swift Sampling is incredibly lightweight, adding only 0.02x additional computational cost over baseline making it 30x cheaper overhead than leading baselines. Across three long-video question answering benchmarks and 10 different downstream tasks, Swift Sampling outperforms uniform sampling and prior query-agnostic baselines. It is especially powerful for long videos with limited frame budgets improving accuracy by up to +12.5 points.

Surprisal theory posits that the processing difficulty of a word is determined by its predictability in context, offering a potential link between human sentence processing and next-word predictions from language models. While language model (LM) surprisals successfully predict reading times in naturalistic text, they systematically underpredict the magnitude of difficulty observed in controlled studies of syntactic ambiguity, particularly in garden path sentences. This mismatch might arise from differences in the computational constraints between humans and LMs. Here we test one such hypothesis, specifically, that LMs may be able to simultaneously consider a greater number of distinct sentence interpretations at once, compared to humans. Using Recurrent Neural Network Grammars (RNNGs) with word-synchronous beam search, we systematically vary the number of simultaneous parses used to compute word surprisal, and then use these surprisals to predict human reading times. Reducing the number of simultaneous active parses indeed increases the magnitude of predicted garden path effects, but not nearly enough to capture the full magnitude of the effects in humans. This suggests that differences in the number of simultaneous parses available to LMs and humans cannot reconcile LM-based surprisal with human sentence processing.

One of the bottlenecks on the way towards recursively self-improving systems is the challenge of interestingness: the ability to prospectively identify which tasks or data hold the potential for future progress. We formalize interestingness as an inductive heuristic for future compression progress and investigate its predictability using tools from Kolmogorov Complexity and Algorithmic Statistics. By analyzing complexity-runtime profiles under Length, Algorithmic, and Speed priors, we demonstrate that the inductive property of interestingness -- the capacity for past progress to signal future discovery -- is theoretically viable and empirically supported. We prove that expected future progress depends exponentially on the recency of the last observed breakthrough. Furthermore, we show that the Algorithmic Prior is significantly more optimistic than the Length Prior, yielding a quadratic increase in expected discovery for the same observed profile. These findings are experimentally confirmed across three diverse universal computational paradigms.

Language-model (LM) surprisal is widely used as a proxy for contextual predictability and has been reported to correlate with metaphor novelty judgments. However, surprisal is tightly intertwined with lexical frequency. We explore this interaction on metaphor novelty ratings using two different word frequency measures. We analyse surprisal estimates from eight Pythia model sizes and 154 training checkpoints. Across settings, word frequency is a stronger predictor of metaphor novelty than surprisal. Across training stages, the surprisal--novelty association peaks at an early stage and then falls again, mirroring a similarly timed increase in the surprisal--frequency association. These results suggest that the often-reported optimal LM surprisal settings may incorrectly associate contextual predictability with metaphor novelty and processing difficulty, whereas lexical frequency may be the major underlying factor.

Isolated word meanings are inherently uncertain. This uncertainty reduces when they are combined and anchored in context. We propose that grammar compresses meaning uncertainty cross-linguistically, which is reflected in brain and selectively disrupted in disorders. Compression was operationalized as the relative difference between non-contextual surprisal estimated from lexical frequency, and contextual surprisal from grammar-sensitive models. In narratives from 20 languages, contextual surprisal reduced frequency-based surprisal. This reduction closely tracked the surprisal cost of reversing word order, and scaled with richer, non-redundant lexis as organized by more complex but optimal dependency structure. During fMRI, surprisal and its reduction explained BOLD activity for comprehension and production in overlapping but distinct regions. Uncertainty reduction was significantly attenuated in aphasia, dementia, and schizophrenia, but remained intact where primary deficit is not language. These findings position uncertainty reduction via grammar as a foundational concept that illuminates principles, brain basis, and disruptions of language.

We model utterance production as probabilistic cost-sensitive choice over contextual alternatives, using information-theoretic notions of cost. We distinguish between goal-directed alternatives that realise a fixed communicative intent and goal-agnostic alternatives defined only by contextual plausibility, allowing us to derive speaker- and listener-oriented interpretations of different cost measures. We present a procedure to generate both types of alternative sets using language models. Analysing production choices in open-ended dialogue under both deterministic and probabilistic cost minimisation, we find that surprisal minimisation relative to goal-directed alternatives provides the strongest predictive account under both analyses. By contrast, uniform information density and length-based costs exhibit weaker and less consistent predictive power across conditions. More broadly, our study suggests that alternative-conditioned optimisation with LM-generated alternatives provides a principled framework for studying speaker and listener pressures in naturalistic language production.

Surprisal theory links human processing effort to the predictability of an upcoming linguistic unit, but empirical work often leaves the notion of a unit underspecified. In practice, experimental stimuli are segmented into linguistically motivated units (e.g., words), while pretrained language models assign probability mass to a fixed token alphabet that typically does not align with those units. As a result, surprisal-based predictors depend implicitly on ad hoc procedures that conflate two distinct modeling choices: the definition of the unit of analysis and the choice of regions of interest over which predictions are evaluated. In this paper, we disentangle these choices and give a unified framework for reasoning about surprisal over arbitrary unit inventories. We argue that surprisal-based analyses should make these choices explicit and treat tokenization as an implementation detail rather than a scientific primitive.

In the era of large language models, creative writing quality lacks a computable theoretical anchor. The dominant approaches are rubric scoring -- decomposing holistic aesthetic judgment into sub-scores -- and RLHF preference signals -- replacing quality with group votes. Both bypass the statistical structure of the text itself. This paper provides an information-theoretic foundation to fill this gap. We propose 'calibrated surprise' as the information-theoretic essence of excellent creative writing. This judgment matches reading intuition and covers its opposite. This literary judgment admits a precise mathematical formulation. Under full-dimensional constraints Y, feasible writing choices are forced into an extremely narrow space. The rare survivors are, from the unconstrained perspective, exactly the least predictable choices. Both are measured precisely by Shannon mutual information I(X;Y) = H(X) - H(X|Y) -- 'calibrated' corresponds to H(X|Y) approaching 0; 'surprising' corresponds to H(X) going high. The subtraction structure of the formula naturally separates 'well-grounded surprise' from 'pure noise'. We use token-level logprobs from Qwen1.5-7B as an operational proxy for the ideal reader's probability distribution. Across 20 pairs (12 Chinese / 8 English) of high-quality vs. systematically degraded literary passages, 20/20 pairs support the core prediction: high-quality passages have systematically higher I(X;Y) than their degraded versions.

Probing has shown that language model representations encode rich linguistic information, but it remains unclear whether they also capture cognitive signals about human processing. In this work, we probe language model representations for human reading times. Using regularized linear regression on two eye-tracking corpora spanning five languages (English, Greek, Hebrew, Russian, and Turkish), we compare the representations from every model layer against scalar predictors -- surprisal, information value, and logit-lens surprisal. We find that the representations from early layers outperform surprisal in predicting early-pass measures such as first fixation and gaze duration. The concentration of predictive power in the early layers suggests that human-like processing signatures are captured by low-level structural or lexical representations, pointing to a functional alignment between model depth and the temporal stages of human reading. In contrast, for late-pass measures such as total reading time, scalar surprisal remains superior, despite its being a much more compressed representation. We also observe performance gains when using both surprisal and early-layer representations. Overall, we find that the best-performing predictor varies strongly depending on the language and eye-tracking measure.

A recent study (Kuribayashi et al., 2025) has shown that human sentence processing behavior, typically measured on syntactically unchallenging constructions, can be effectively modeled using surprisal from early layers of large language models (LLMs). This raises the question of whether such advantages of internal layers extend to more syntactically challenging constructions, where surprisal has been reported to underestimate human cognitive effort. In this paper, we begin by exploring internal layers that better estimate human cognitive effort observed in syntactic ambiguity processing in English. Our experiments show that, in contrast to naturalistic reading, later layers better estimate such a cognitive effort, but still underestimate the human data. This dual alignment sheds light on different modes of sentence processing in humans and LMs: naturalistic reading employs a somewhat weak prediction akin to earlier layers of LMs, while syntactically challenging processing requires more fully-contextualized representations, better modeled by later layers of LMs. Motivated by these findings, we also explore several probability-update measures using shallow and deep layers of LMs, showing a complementary advantage to single-layer's surprisal in reading time modeling.

Surprisal theory hypothesizes that the difficulty of human sentence processing increases linearly with surprisal, the negative log-probability of a word given its context. Computational psycholinguistics has tested this hypothesis using language models (LMs) as proxies for human prediction. While surprisal derived from recent neural LMs generally captures human processing difficulty on naturalistic corpora that predominantly consist of simple sentences, it severely underestimates processing difficulty on sentences that require syntactic disambiguation (garden-path effects). This leads to the claim that the processing difficulty of such sentences cannot be reduced to surprisal, although it remains possible that neural LMs simply differ from humans in next-word prediction. In this paper, we investigate whether it is truly impossible to construct a neural LM that can explain garden-path effects via surprisal. Specifically, instead of evaluating off-the-shelf neural LMs, we fine-tune these LMs on garden-path sentences so as to better align surprisal-based reading-time estimates with actual human reading times. Our results show that fine-tuned LMs do not overfit and successfully capture human reading slowdowns on held-out garden-path items; they even improve predictive power for human reading times on naturalistic corpora and preserve their general LM capabilities. These results provide an existence proof for a neural LM that can explain both garden-path effects and naturalistic reading times via surprisal, but also raise a theoretical question: what kind of evidence can truly falsify surprisal theory?

We study black-box detection of machine-generated text under practical constraints: the scoring model (proxy LM) may mismatch the unknown source model, and per-input contrastive generation is costly. We propose SurpMark, a reference-based detector that summarizes a passage by the dynamics of its token surprisals. SurpMark discretizes surprisals into interpretable states, estimates a state-transition matrix for the test text, and scores it via a generalized Jensen-Shannon (GJS) gap between the test transitions and two fixed references (human vs. machine) built once from existing corpora. Theoretically, we derive design guidance for how the discretization bins should scale with data and provide a principled justification for our test statistic. Empirically, across multiple datasets, source models, and scenarios, SurpMark consistently matches or surpasses baselines, demonstrating strong robustness across domains and generators; our experiments on hyperparameter sensitivity exhibit trends that our theoretical results help to explain.

A community of researchers appears to think that a machine can be surprised and have introduced various surprise measures, principally the Shannon Surprise and the Bayesian Surprise. The questions of what constitutes a surprise and how to react to one still elicit debates. In this work, we introduce Mutual Information Surprise (MIS), a new framework that redefines surprise not as anomaly measure, but as a signal of epistemic growth. Furthermore, we develop a statistical test sequence that could trigger a surprise reaction and propose a MIS-based reaction policy that dynamically governs system behavior through sampling adjustment and process forking. Empirical evaluations -- on both synthetic domains and a dynamic pollution map estimation task -- show that a system governed by the MIS-based reaction policy significantly outperforms those under classical surprise-based approaches in stability, responsiveness, and predictive accuracy. The important implication of our new proposal is that MIS quantifies the impact of new observations on mutual information, shifts surprise from reactive to reflective, enables reflection on learning progression, and thus offers a path toward self-aware and adaptive autonomous systems. We expect the new surprise measure to play a critical role in further advancing autonomous systems on their ability to learn and adapt in a complex and dynamic environment.

As AI-generated content increasingly populates the web, generative AI models are at growing risk of being trained on their own outputs, a process known as AI autophagy. This feedback loop has been shown to induce model collapse, typically characterized by a loss of diversity in generated content. However, existing work offers a limited understanding of this phenomenon and relies on mitigation strategies that assume access to human-authored data. In this paper, we conduct extensive simulations across multiple datasets and LLMs to address key gaps in the study of model collapse. First, we introduce model-intrinsic measures based on next-token probability distributions, showing that model collapse corresponds to an increasing concentration of probability mass on a small set of tokens. Second, we demonstrate that model collapse is also associated with a loss of common sense, as measured by a decline in commonsense inference accuracy. Third, we identify perplexity (a measure of model "surprise") as a key driver of collapse: fine-tuning on the least "surprising" documents leads to more severe degeneration. Building on this insight, we propose a perplexity-based filtering strategy that prioritizes high-surprise documents during fine-tuning. Unlike existing approaches, our method does not require distinguishing between human-authored and AI-generated content. Across datasets and LLM families, this strategy consistently mitigates model collapse, achieving performance comparable to, and in some cases better than, human-data baselines, while substantially reducing the concentration of next-token probabilities. Overall, our results provide a unified, model-centric understanding of model collapse and suggest practical, scalable strategies for training generative AI systems in increasingly synthetic environments.

Psycholinguistics studies show that human readers fall for coherence illusions: an incoherent discourse can seem coherent simply because a distractor matches what comes next. We investigate whether Dutch language models (6 monolingual and 4 multilingual) show the same behavior on texts that link back to earlier context with words such as 'again' and 'too'. First, we find that surprisal at the critical word tracks human acceptability judgments and eye-tracking data. Models are more surprised by incoherent continuations, but a matching distractor in the prior context reduces this surprisal. Second, attention entropy identifies heads that behave differently under coherence vs. incoherence. We find that ablating these heads shows transfer effects across experiments, suggesting a shared mechanism. Third, we introduce energy from the associative-memory literature as a metric to quantify discourse coherence. Taken together, our results show that coherence illusions arise in Dutch LLMs, with entropy and energy exposing mechanisms that operate across settings.

Humor is a fundamental cognitive phenomenon in which humans derive pleasure from the expectation violations and their resolution, exemplifying the brain's dynamic capacity for predictive processing. Classical humor theories emphasize semantic incongruity as the primary driver of amusement, yet overlook temporal dynamics despite comedians' intuition that "timing is everything." The extent to which temporal structure contributes to humor appreciation and how it interacts with semantic content remains poorly understood. Here, we propose the Dual Prediction Violation (DPV) framework to capture the interplay between content and timing. By analyzing 828 professional Chinese stand-up performances, we show that temporal features substantially outweigh semantic incongruity in predicting audience appreciation. Specifically, we find that peak semantic violations matter more than average incongruity levels, and pauses systematically lengthen before high-surprise punchlines--a strategic coupling that distinguishes successful from unsuccessful performances. These findings reframe humor as temporally scaffolded, where timing and semantic content operate in strategic coordination rather than independently. Our DPV framework bridges humor theory with predictive processing, demonstrating that temporal structure plays a central role in naturalistic humor appreciation with implications for understanding multi-scale prediction integration in linguistic processing.