Trajectory Prediction

End-to-end autonomous driving has emerged as a compelling alternative to traditional modular pipelines by directly mapping raw sensor data to driving actions. While recent approaches achieve strong performance on single-domain datasets, their performance degrades significantly when trained jointly across multiple heterogeneous domains. In practice, however, autonomous systems must operate across diverse environments with heterogeneous distributions, including different cities, sensor configurations, and traffic patterns, without domain-specific retraining. This gap highlights a key challenge in multi-domain learning: domain-specific variations across heterogeneous domains introduce conflicting learning signals, driving models toward compromised solutions that are suboptimal across domains. To address this, we propose a trajectory-driven learning paradigm that organizes training around planning trajectories, enabling the model to capture domain-invariant representations of driving intent. Furthermore, we incorporate a world model that predicts future latent features conditioned on ego actions, improving feature consistency and mitigating domain-induced biases. We evaluate our approach on three benchmarks, nuScenes, NAVSIM, and the Waymo end-to-end dataset, and show substantial improvements over existing methods across all domains. Our results demonstrate that a single unified model can be trained on heterogeneous datasets while maintaining strong performance within each domain, highlighting a step toward scalable real-world deployment. We will make our code publicly available.

This paper presents a learning-augmented trajectory planning framework for cooperative unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) handover missions. While centralized trajectory optimization ensures dynamic feasibility and task optimality, its high computational cost limits real-time applicability. We propose a neural surrogate planner utilizing decoupled encoder-decoder long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to generate coordinated handover trajectory predictions from the task specifications. These predictions serve as informed warm starts for the downstream centralized optimizer, thereby accelerating convergence to dynamically feasible solutions. Benchmark evaluations demonstrate that the learning-augmented planning framework achieves more than a threefold speedup and 100% optimization success rate compared to cold start optimization. The results indicate that combining data-driven inference with model-based refinement enables fast and reliable trajectory generation for heterogeneous multi-robot systems.

Future 3D semantic occupancy forecasting and motion planning are central to autonomous driving, as they require models to reason about how surrounding scenes evolve and how the ego vehicle should act. Existing occupancy world models commonly discretize scenes into latent embeddings, volumetric features, or quantized tokens, and forecast future states through fixed-step autoregressive generation. This limits temporal flexibility, obscures scene evolution, accumulates errors over long horizons, and poorly matches the continuous-time dynamics of real driving scenes. We propose GEM, a Gaussian Evolution Model for non-autoregressive occupancy world modeling, where driving scenes are represented as explicit continuous 4D Gaussian primitives with learned dynamics. Instead of rolling out future occupancy states step by step, GEM directly queries the Gaussian world representation at arbitrary timestamps and splats the corresponding conditional 3D Gaussians into semantic occupancy volumes. This enables efficient forecasting over the full horizon while retaining a compact and interpretable scene representation. By decoupling spatial geometry, temporal support, and primitive motion, GEM makes the predicted world easier to inspect, as each primitive's evolution can be followed continuously over time. The same representation also supports motion planning by predicting future ego trajectories from the learned Gaussian world. Extensive experiments show that GEM achieves state-of-the-art future semantic occupancy forecasting and strong motion planning performance, while providing flexible temporal querying.

Active 3D reconstruction of moving objects requires selecting informative viewpoints while accounting for object motion uncertainty during the decision-to-execution delay. Existing methods address only parts of this problem: next-best-view (NBV) planners for object reconstruction typically optimize surface coverage but assume static objects, while motion-aware active perception for moving targets accounts for target motion but prioritizes tracking or visibility over reconstruction coverage. This work presents a motion-uncertainty-aware NBV framework for reconstructing an unknown rigid object undergoing planar motion, using noisy planar position measurements of the object and depth observations from a mobile robot. The key idea is to evaluate each candidate viewpoint by its expected observation quality over plausible future object states induced by motion and measurement uncertainty, rather than at a single predicted object pose. To obtain this predictive belief, a fixed-lag Gaussian Process smoother estimates and predicts the object state from noisy position measurements. The resulting belief is used to generate candidate viewpoints around the predicted object location, filter them by reachability, and estimate their expected coverage-driven scores. Simulation and real-world experiments demonstrate improved reconstruction completeness over non-predictive NBV and prediction-only tracking methods, bridging coverage-driven active reconstruction and prediction-driven tracking.

Clinical decision-making is a feedback system where risk estimates influence treatment, which in turn changes disease trajectories, and both shape clinicians' measurement practices. Static prediction often fails clinically: models trained on observational care logs conflate disease biology with clinician behavior, particularly under treatment confounder feedback and irregular or informative observation. This Review focuses on intervention-aware disease trajectory modeling in clinical AI--methods estimating patient-specific longitudinal disease evolution and assessing trajectory changes under alternative treatments. We organize the field around six linked components: three decision tasks (factual forecasting, counterfactual estimation, policy evaluation) and three data-generating mechanisms (disease evolution, treatment assignment, observation process) that determine identifiability. We present the first unified framework bridging forecasting, counterfactual trajectories, and policy evaluation across discrete/continuous time, explicitly addressing treatment assignment, time-varying confounding, and observation bias. We synthesize key method families (multistate/joint models, temporal point-process, deep sequence architectures, longitudinal causal inference), map them to relevant components, and align evaluation with claim strength via overlap diagnostics, uncertainty quantification, off-policy robustness, and target-trial validation. This synthesis advances benchmark prediction to decision-grade clinical evidence, enabling treatment-sensitive individualized futures, pre-deployment policy stress-testing, and safer closed-loop learning health systems that adapt/abstain when evidence is insufficient.

Accurate multi-step port-of-call sequence prediction is vital for tactical resource orchestration and logistical efficiency. However, existing methods struggle with unreliable voyage schedules and the inability of AIS data to provide visibility beyond the immediate next port. To address this, this study proposes a Connectivity-Constrained and Retrieval-Enhanced (CCRE) deep learning framework. Inspired by Retrieval-Augmented Generation, CCRE introduces a retrieval-enhanced historical encoder that queries a global maritime database for contextually similar navigational precedents. Transforming these scenarios into candidate-level semantic representations compensates for data sparsity in long-tail routes and resolves routing ambiguities. Integrating this with a Transformer-based trajectory encoder, the architecture executes adaptive "middle fusion" via cross-attention. This dynamically shifts predictive reliance from real-time kinematics for short-term accuracy to historical context for long-term strategic stability. To ensure sequence-level coherence, forecasting is formulated as a joint sequence generation problem using an autoregressive Transformer decoder enriched with Scheduled Sampling and Gumbel-Softmax relaxation. This mitigates error accumulation, while topology masks strictly enforce maritime network reachability to eliminate operationally infeasible routes. Evaluated on a global dataset, CCRE achieves a 72.3% first-destination accuracy and a 61.4% average three-step accuracy, outperforming baselines like CatBoost and LSTM by average margins of 12.6% and 11.3%, respectively. Case studies further corroborate the model's scalability and ability to capture complex routing patterns across diverse international trade lanes.

Long-horizon vessel trajectory forecasting under real ocean conditions is critical for collision avoidance, traffic management, and route planning. However, achieving accurate predictions is challenging due to long-range temporal dependencies and dynamic environmental factors such as currents, wind, and waves. To address these issues, we propose a hierarchical two-stage framework that combines a coarse long-term predictor with a grid-aware short-term predictor through a hierarchical fusion mechanism. The short-term branch leverages a Spatio-Temporal Graph Transformer on discretized maritime cells to capture localized dynamics, while the long-term branch encodes overarching navigational intent. An integrated environmental module incorporates oceanographic parameters, including surface currents, wind vectors, and significant wave height, using cross-modal attention and feature-wise modulation for adaptive response to varying sea conditions. Additionally, a learnable Savitzky-Golay smoothing layer enhances temporal coherence in fused trajectories. We evaluate our approach on Australian Craft Tracking System (CTS) data from the North West region, aligned with Copernicus Marine Service products, using a 3-hour input and a 10-hour prediction horizon. Experimental results show that our framework outperforms the state-of-the-art by 25% in Average Displacement Error (ADE) and 17% in Final Displacement Error (FDE). Ablation studies further validate the contribution of each component.

Human trajectory forecasting is crucial for safe navigation in crowded environments, requiring models that balance accuracy with computational efficiency. Efficiently modeling social interactions is key to performance in dense crowds. Yet, most recent methods rely on attention mechanisms, which are effective at capturing complex dependencies, but incur quadratic computational costs that scale poorly with the growing number of neighbors. Recently, Selective State-Space Models have provided a linear-time alternative; however, their inherently sequential design is misaligned with the unstructured and dynamic nature of social interactions. To address this challenge, we propose Social-Mamba, a forecasting architecture that reformulates social interactions as structured sequential processes. At its core is the Cycle Mamba block, a novel module that enables continuous bidirectional information flow. Social-Mamba organizes agents on an egocentric grid and introduces social triplet factorization, which decomposes interactions into temporal, egocentric, and goal-centric scans. These are dynamically integrated through a learnable social gate and global scan to generate accurate and efficient trajectory predictions. Extensive experiments on five trajectory forecasting benchmarks show that Social-Mamba achieves state-of-the-art accuracy while offering superior parameter efficiency and computational scalability. Furthermore, embedding Social-Mamba into a flow-matching framework further enhances both accuracy and efficiency, establishing it as a flexible and robust foundation for future trajectory forecasting research. The code is publicly available: https://github.com/vita-epfl/Social-Mamba

Forecasting within signal processing pipelines is crucial for mitigating delays, particularly in predicting the dynamic movements of objects such as NBA players. This task poses significant challenges due to the inherently interactive and unpredictable nature of sports, where abrupt changes in velocity and direction are prevalent. Traditional approaches, including (S)ARIMA(X), Kalman filters (KF), and Particle filters (PF), often struggle to model the non-linear dynamics present in such scenarios. Machine learning (ML) methods, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, graph neural networks (GNNs), and Transformers, offer greater flexibility and accuracy but frequently fail to explicitly capture the interplay between temporal dependencies and contextual interactions, which are critical in chaotic sports environments. In this paper, we evaluate these models and assess their strengths and weaknesses. Experimental results reveal key performance trade-offs across input history length, generalizability, and the ability to incorporate contextual information. ML-based methods demonstrated substantial improvements over linear models across forecast horizons of up to 2s. Among the tested architectures, our hybrid LSTM augmented with contextual information achieved the lowest final displacement error (FDE) of 1.51m, outperforming temporal convolutional neural network (TCNN), graph attention network (GAT), and Transformers, while also requiring less data and training time compared to GAT and Transformers. Our findings indicate that no single architecture excels across all metrics, emphasizing the need for task-specific considerations in trajectory prediction for fast-paced, dynamic environments such as NBA gameplay.

We present a flow-matching planner for autonomous driving that directly outputs actionable control trajectories defined by acceleration and curvature profiles. The model is conditioned on a bird's-eye-view (BEV) raster of the surrounding scene and generates control sequences in a small number of Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) integration steps, enabling low-latency inference suitable for real-time closed-loop re-planning. We train exclusively on urban scenarios (real urban city streets, intersections and roundabouts of the city of Parma, Italy) collected from a 2D traffic simulator with reactive agents, and evaluate in closed-loop on both in-distribution and markedly out-of-distribution environments, including multi-lane highways and unseen urban scenarios. Our results show that the model generalizes reliably to these unseen conditions, maintaining stable closed-loop control and successfully completing scenarios that differ substantially from the training distribution. We attribute this to the BEV representation, which provides a geometry-centric view of the scene that is inherently less sensitive to distributional shifts, and to the flow-matching formulation, which learns a smooth vector field that degrades gracefully under distribution shift. We provide video demonstrations of closed-loop behavior at https://marcelloceresini.github.io/DirectControlFlowMatching.

Data scaling plays a pivotal role in the pursuit of general intelligence. However, the prevailing perception-planning paradigm in autonomous driving relies heavily on expensive manual annotations to supervise trajectory planning, which severely limits its scalability. Conversely, although existing perception-free driving world models achieve impressive driving performance, their real-world reasoning ability for planning is solely built on next frame image forecasting. Due to the lack of enough supervision, these models often struggle with comprehensive scene understanding, resulting in unsatisfactory trajectory planning. In this paper, we propose EponaV2, a novel paradigm of driving world models, which achieves high-quality planning with comprehensive future reasoning. Inspired by how human drivers anticipate 3D geometry and semantics, we train our model to forecast more comprehensive future representations, which can be additionally decoded to future geometry and semantic maps. Extracting the 3D and semantic modalities enables our model to deeply understand the surrounding environment, and the future prediction task significantly enhances the real-world reasoning capabilities of EponaV2, ultimately leading to improved trajectory planning. Moreover, inspired by the training recipe of Large Language Models (LLMs), we introduce a flow matching group relative policy optimization mechanism to further improve planning accuracy. The state-of-the-art (SOTA) performances of EponaV2 among perception-free models on three NAVSIM benchmarks (+1.3PDMS, +5.5EPDMS) demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods.

End-to-end autonomous driving, which bypasses traditional modular pipelines by directly predicting future trajectories from sensor inputs, has recently achieved substantial progress. However, existing methods often overlook the causal inter-dependencies in ego-vehicle planning, ignoring the reciprocal relations between the ego vehicle and surrounding agents. This causal oversight leads to inconsistent and unreliable trajectory predictions, especially in interaction-critical scenarios where ego decisions and neighboring agent behaviors must be reasoned about jointly. To address this limitation, we propose CaAD, a Causality-aware end-to-end Autonomous Driving framework that captures these dependencies within a shared latent scene representation. First, we propose an ego-centric joint-causal modeling module that builds on the marginal prediction branch, and learns causal dependencies between the ego vehicle and interaction-relevant agents. Second, we employ a causality-aware policy alignment stage implemented with joint-mode embeddings to align the stochastic ego policy with planning-oriented closed-loop feedback computed from surrounding traffic and map context. On the Bench2Drive and NAVSIM benchmarks, CaAD demonstrates strong closed-loop planning performance, achieving a Driving Score of 87.53 and Success Rate of 71.81 on Bench2Drive, and a PDMS of 91.1 on NAVSIM. The project page is available at https://moonseokha.github.io/CaAD/.

Learning and representing the subjectivities of agents has become a challenging but crucial problem in the trajectory prediction task. Such subjectivities not only present specific spatial or temporal structures, but also are anisotropic for all interaction participants. Despite great efforts, it remains difficult to explicitly learn and forecast these subjectivities, let alone further modulate models' predictions through a specific ego's subjectivity. Inspired by prefactual thoughts in psychology and relevant theatrical concepts, we interpret such subjectivities in future trajectories as the continuous process from rehearsal to encore. In the rehearsal phase, the proposed ego predictor focuses on how each ego agent learns to derive and direct a set of explicitly biased rehearsal trajectories for all participants in the scene from the short-term observations. Then, these rehearsal trajectories serve as immediate controls to condition final predictions, providing direct yet distinct ego biases for the prediction network to simulate agents' various subjectivities. Experiments across datasets not only demonstrate a consistent improvement in the performance of the proposed \emph{Encore} trajectory prediction model but also provide clear interpretability regarding subjectivities as biased ego rehearsals.

Stochastic Human Trajectory Prediction (HTP) using generative modeling has emerged as a significant area of research. Although state-of-the-art models excel in optimizing the accuracy of individual agents, they often struggle to generate predictions that are collectively compliant, leading to output trajectories marred by social collisions and environmental violations, thus rendering them impractical for real-world applications. To bridge this gap, we present JACoP: Joint Alignment for Compliant Multi-Agent Prediction, an innovative multi-stage framework that ensures scene-level plausibility. JACoP incorporates an Anchor-Based Agent-Centric Profiler for effective initial compliance filtering and employs a Markov Random Field (MRF) based aligner to formalize the joint selection for scene predictions. By representing inter-agent spatial and social costs as MRF energy potentials, we successfully infer and sample from the joint trajectory distribution, achieving prediction with optimal scene compliance. Comprehensive experiments show that JACoP not only achieves competitive accuracy, but also sets a new standard in reducing both environmental violations and social collisions, thereby confirming its ability to produce collectively feasible and practically applicable trajectory predictions.

Multi-agent trajectory modeling traditionally focuses on forecasting, often neglecting more general tasks like trajectory completion, which is essential for real-world applications such as correcting tracking data. Existing methods also generally predict agents' states without offering any state-wise measure of heteroscedastic uncertainty. Moreover, popular multi-modal sampling methods lack error probability estimates for each generated scene under the same prior observations, which makes it difficult to rank the predictions at inference time. We introduce U2Diffine, a unified diffusion model built to perform trajectory completion while simultaneously offering state-wise heteroscedastic uncertainty estimates. This is achieved by augmenting the standard denoising loss with the negative log-likelihood of the predicted noise, and then propagating the latent space uncertainty to the real state space using a first-order Taylor approximation. We also propose U2Diff, a faster baseline that avoids gradient computation during sampling. This approach significantly increases inference speed, making it as efficient as a standard generative-only diffusion model. For post-processing, we integrate a Rank Neural Network (RankNN) that enables error probability estimation for each generated mode, demonstrating strong correlation with ground truth errors. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in both trajectory completion and forecasting across four challenging sports datasets (NBA, Basketball-U, Football-U, Soccer-U), underscoring the effectiveness of our uncertainty and error probability estimation.

End to end (E2E) autonomous driving trajectory prediction is often trained with camera frames sampled at the highest available temporal frequency, assuming that denser sampling improves performance. We question this assumption by treating temporal sampling frequency as an explicit training set design variable. Starting from high frequency E2E driving datasets, we construct frequency sweep training sets by temporally subsampling camera frames along each trajectory. For each model dataset pair, we train and evaluate the same model under a fixed protocol, so the frequency response reflects how prediction performance changes with sampling frequency. We analyze this response from a capacity aware perspective. Sparse sampling may miss driving relevant cues, while dense sampling may add redundant visual content and off manifold noise. For finite capacity models, this can create a driving irrelevant capacity burden. We evaluate three smaller E2E models and a larger VLA style AutoVLA model on Waymo, nuScenes, and PAVE. Results show model and dataset dependent frequency responses. Smaller E2E models often show non monotonic or near plateau trends and achieve their best 3 second ADE at lower or intermediate frequencies. In contrast, AutoVLA achieves its best 3 second ADE and FDE at the highest evaluated frequency on all three datasets. Iteration matched controls suggest that the advantage of lower or intermediate frequencies for smaller models is not explained only by unequal training update counts. These findings show that temporal sampling frequency should be reported and tuned, rather than fixed to the highest available value.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have advanced rapidly in multimodal perception and language understanding, yet it remains unclear whether they can reliably ground language into spatially coherent, plausibly executable actions in 3D digital environments. We introduce SleepWalk, a benchmark for evaluating instruction-grounded trajectory prediction in single-scene 3D worlds generated from textual scene descriptions and filtered for navigability. Unlike prior navigation benchmarks centered on long-range exploration across rooms, SleepWalk targets localized, interaction-centric embodied reasoning: given rendered visual observations and a natural-language instruction, a model must predict a trajectory that respects scene geometry, avoids collisions, and terminates at an action-compatible location. The benchmark covers diverse indoor and outdoor environments and organizes tasks into three tiers of spatial and temporal difficulty, enabling fine-grained analysis of grounding under increasing compositional complexity. Using a standardized pointwise judge-based evaluation protocol, we evaluate three frontier VLMs on 2,472 curated 3D environments with nine instructions per scene. Results reveal systematic failures in grounded spatial reasoning, especially under occlusion, interaction constraints, and multi-step instructions: performance drops as the difficulty level of the tasks increase. In general, current VLMs can somewhat produce trajectories that are simultaneously spatially coherent, plausibly executable, and aligned with intended actions. By exposing failures in a controlled yet scalable setting, SleepWalk provides a critical benchmark for advancing grounded multimodal reasoning, embodied planning, vision-language navigation, and action-capable agents in 3D environments.

Existing latent world models for autonomous driving have opened a promising path toward future-aware driving intelligence. However, they typically treat future latent states as prediction targets or auxiliary signals, rather than directly conditioning trajectory planning. This can entangle current and future features in latent space. In this work, we propose DriveFuture, a future-aware latent world modeling framework for autonomous driving that explicitly learns planning-oriented foresight by conditioning the current latent state modeling process on future world states. Specifically, during training, the model first predicts future latent world states from the current latent state and ego action, and then refines the prediction against the ground-truth future latent state via cross-attention. The resulting future-aware latent serves as an explicit condition for a diffusion-based trajectory planner. During inference, DriveFuture conditions on the predicted future latent state instead of the ground-truth future state. DriveFuture achieves SOTA performance on the public NAVSIM benchmarks, reaching \textbf{55.5} EPDMS on NAVSIM-v2 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navhard}}}, \textbf{89.9} EPDMS on NAVSIM-v2 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navtest}}}, and \textbf{90.7} PDMS on NAVSIM-v1 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navtest}}}, respectively. These results suggest that the key to latent world modeling lies not merely in simulating future states, but more importantly in conditioning current decision-making on future states. Notably, as of April 2026, DriveFuture ranks \textbf{1st} on the \href{https://huggingface.co/spaces/AGC2025/e2e-driving-navhard}{NAVSIM-v2 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navhard}}}} leaderboard and achieves SOTA performance on \href{https://huggingface.co/spaces/AGC2024-P/e2e-driving-navtest}{NAVSIM-v1 {\textcolor{blue}{\textit{navtest}}}}.

Diffusion models for multi-agent trajectory prediction are limited by iterative denoising, which causes inference latency that hinders their use in time-critical settings like autonomous driving. Fast-sampling variants using DDIM and informed initial noise distributions partially alleviate this issue, but they either fail to achieve true single-step generation or are constrained by the chosen noise distribution. Consistency Models (CMs) offer high-quality one-step generation by mapping noise directly to data, but are difficult to train from scratch. We propose ECTraj, an enhanced CM pipeline with improved training and conditional generation for trajectory prediction. Our framework extends the student-teacher consistency training scheme: the student produces standard outputs, while the teacher explicitly fuses its predictions with parts of the ground truth to give stronger supervision. We also exploit CMs' direct denoising for top-K multi-shot generation during training. Combining conditional generation with this enhanced consistency objective yields faster inference and improved prediction accuracy, establishing competitive new benchmarks on the large-scale Argoverse 2 dataset.

Accurate modeling of nonlinear vehicle dynamics is essential for high-speed autonomous racing, where controllers operate at the handling limits. Model-based methods are interpretable but rely on simplifying assumptions, while purely learned models capture nonlinearities yet often lack physical consistency, generalization, and adaptability to changing operating conditions. This paper presents DynSSM, a physics-aware state-space memory framework that combines learned temporal representations with a structured vehicle dynamics model. The proposed approach integrates state-space sequence modeling and recurrent encoders to capture long- and short-term dynamic behavior. It simultaneously adapts tire and vehicle-dynamics parameters within bounded ranges to preserve physical plausibility. A residual correction mechanism compensates for remaining unmodeled dynamics while preserving the underlying physics-based structure. DynSSM is evaluated on both simulated small-scale racing data and real-world full-scale autonomous Indy racecar data. When evaluated on an unseen real-world track, DynSSM reduces one-step prediction RMSE by up to $27.2\%$ in longitudinal velocity, $73.9\%$ in lateral velocity, and $88.8\%$ in yaw rate compared with the state-of-the-art (\sota{}) baselines. Component-wise ablation studies demonstrate the importance of temporal memory, parameter adaptation, and residual correction for predictive performance and robustness. Further, closed-loop simulations using nonlinear model predictive control demonstrate that DynSSM remains feasible across the evaluated tracks and achieves up to a 13.2% reduction in one-lap completion time compared with \sota{} baselines. These results indicate that combining temporal memory, bounded physics-guided parameter adaptation, and residual correction provides an accurate, interpretable, and control-ready dynamics model for autonomous racing.

Misbehavior detection in Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X) networks is a second line of defense against insider falsification attacks that cryptographic mechanisms alone cannot address. Existing learning-based Misbehavior Detection Schemes (MDSs) are supervised, requiring labeled attack samples at training time, thus failing to counter unseen falsification attacks. We present PAMPOS, a causal transformer-decoder trained on benign VeReMi++ trajectories to learn normal mobility patterns. At inference time, misbehavior is identified as a deviation from the model's next-step kinematic predictions using a top-K normalized anomaly scoring mechanism that localizes falsification to specific kinematic features, without requiring attack-labeled training data. We evaluate PAMPOS across all 19 attack types in VeReMi++ under rush-hour and afternoon scenarios, achieving Area Under the Curve (AUC) values of up to 0.98 and F1-scores of up to 0.95 for most attack categories.

End-to-end autonomous driving models generate future trajectories from multi-view inputs, improving system integration but introducing opaque decisions and hard-to-localize risks. Existing methods either rely on auxiliary monitoring models or generate textual explanations, but are decoupled from the planning process and fail to reveal the visual evidence underlying trajectory generation. While attribution offers a direct alternative, planning differs from image classification by taking six-view camera images as input and predicting continuous multi-step trajectories, requiring attribution to capture both critical views and regions and their influence on outputs. Moreover, whether attribution maps can support risk identification remains underexplored. To address this, we propose a hierarchical attribution framework for end-to-end planning. Specifically, using L2 consistency with the original trajectory as the objective, we design a coarse-to-fine region attribution strategy that searches candidate regions across the full six-view input and refines attribution within them. We further extract three attribution statistics as predictive signals for planning risk, including attribution entropy to measure how concentrated the planner's reliance is over the joint visual space, within-camera spatial variance to characterize how spread out the attribution is within each view, and cross-camera Gini coefficient to quantify how unevenly attribution is distributed across the six cameras. Experiments on BridgeAD, UniAD, and GenAD show that these statistics correlate with planning risk, achieving Spearman correlations of $0.30 \pm 0.07$ with trajectory error and AUROC of $0.77 \pm 0.04$ for collision detection. The signal generalizes to held-out scenes with negligible degradation and remains stable under an alternative attribution baseline.

Online mapping and end-to-end (E2E) planning in autonomous driving remain largely sensor-centric, leaving rich map priors, including HD/SD vector maps, rasterized SD maps, and satellite imagery, underused because of heterogeneity, pose drift, and inconsistent availability at test time. We present UMPE, a Unified Map Prior Encoder that can ingest any subset of four priors and fuse them with BEV features for both mapping and planning. UMPE has two branches. The vector encoder pre-aligns HD/SD polylines with a frame-wise SE(2) correction, encodes points via multi-frequency sinusoidal features, and produces polyline tokens with confidence scores. BEV queries then apply cross-attention with confidence bias, followed by normalized channel-wise gating to avoid length imbalance and softly down-weight uncertain sources. The raster encoder shares a ResNet-18 backbone conditioned by FiLM with scaling and shift at every stage, performs SE(2) micro-alignment, and injects priors through zero-initialized residual fusion, so the network starts from a do-no-harm baseline and learns to add only useful prior evidence. A vector-then-raster fusion order reflects the inductive bias of geometry first, appearance second. On nuScenes mapping, UMPE lifts MapTRv2 from 61.5 to 67.4 mAP (+5.9) and MapQR from 66.4 to 71.7 mAP (+5.3). On Argoverse2, UMPE adds +4.1 mAP over strong baselines. UMPE is compositional: when trained with all priors, it outperforms single-prior models even when only one prior is available at test time, demonstrating powerset robustness. For E2E planning with the VAD backbone on nuScenes, UMPE reduces trajectory error from 0.72 to 0.42 m L2 on average (-0.30 m) and collision rate from 0.22% to 0.12% (-0.10%), surpassing recent prior-injection methods. These results show that a unified, alignment-aware treatment of heterogeneous map priors yields better mapping and better planning.

End-to-end (E2E) autonomous driving aims to directly map sensory observations to driving actions, but its real-world deployment is hindered by evolving data distributions and the high cost of continual annotation. While combining imitation learning (IL) and reinforcement learning (RL) is a common strategy for policy improvement, conventional RL training relies on delayed, event-based rewards, where policies learn only from catastrophic outcomes such as collisions, leading to premature convergence to suboptimal behaviors. To address these limitations, we propose GSDrive, a framework that uses a differentiable 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) environment for future-aware trajectory probing and reward shaping in E2E driving. GSDrive first learns a multi-mode trajectory probe via IL and then uses RL to evaluate multiple candidate futures in the 3DGS environment, converting their simulated returns into dense shaping rewards for policy optimization. This yields a cyclic hybrid IL-RL training loop, where IL supplies structured future priors and RL provides interactive feedback for iterative refinement. Evaluated on the reconstructed nuScenes dataset, our method outperforms other simulation-based RL approaches in closed-loop experiments. Code is available at https://github.com/ZionGo6/GSDrive.

Open-loop evaluation offers fast, reproducible assessment of autonomous driving planners, but its ability to predict real closed-loop driving performance remains questionable. Prior work has shown that traditional open-loop metrics such as Average Displacement Error (ADE) and Final Displacement Error (FDE) exhibit no reliable correlation with closed-loop Driving Score. In this paper, we ask whether the more recent, safety-aware open-loop metrics introduced by NAVSIM~v2 can bridge this gap. By systematically cross-referencing published results from 15 state-of-the-art methods across NAVSIM (open-loop) and Bench2Drive (closed-loop), we compile a paired dataset of open-loop sub-metrics and closed-loop performance, yielding 8 methods with complete paired data. Our analysis reveals three key findings: (1) the aggregate NAVSIM PDM Score shows a strong positive but non-monotonic correlation with Bench2Drive Driving Score, with clear ranking inversions; (2) among individual NAVSIM sub-metrics, Ego Progress (EP) is the strongest single predictor of closed-loop success, substantially exceeding the safety-critical collision metric NC; (3) the safety-progress trade-off manifests differently in open-loop and closed-loop: methods that maximize safety at the expense of progress rank highly in NAVSIM but underperform in closed-loop due to timeout and slow-driving penalties. We further demonstrate that a much simpler 3-metric formula matches the predictive power of the full 5-metric PDMS at the same Spearman $ρ{=}0.90$ on our paired sample of $n{=}8$ methods, suggesting that within current state-of-the-art methods -- where TTC and Comfort approach saturation -- these two sub-metrics add little marginal information for closed-loop ranking. Additionally, we identify the snowball effect -- where small open-loop deviations compound into closed-loop failures -- as a candidate mechanism for the residual gap.

End-to-end autonomous driving planners typically generate trajectories from current observations alone. However, real-world driving is highly dynamic, and such reactive planning cannot anticipate future scene evolution, often leading to myopic decisions and safety-critical failures. We propose ProDrive, a world-model-based proactive planning framework that enables ego-environment co-evolution for autonomous driving. ProDrive jointly trains a query-centric trajectory planner and a bird's-eye-view (BEV) world model end-to-end: the planner generates diverse candidate trajectories and planning-aware ego tokens, while the world model predicts future scene evolution conditioned on them. By injecting planner features into the world model and evaluating all candidates in parallel, ProDrive preserves end-to-end gradient flow and allows future outcome assessment to directly shape planning. This bidirectional coupling enables proactive planning beyond current-observation-driven decision-making. Experiments on NAVSIM v1 show that ProDrive outperforms strong baselines in both safety and planning efficiency, while ablations validate the effectiveness of the proposed ego-environment coupling design.

Accurate trajectory prediction is fundamentally challenging due to high scene heterogeneity - the severe variance in motion velocity, spatial density, and interaction patterns across different real-world environments. However, most existing approaches typically train a single unified model, expecting a fixed-capacity architecture to generalize universally across all possible scenarios. This conventional model-centric paradigm is fundamentally flawed when confronting such extreme heterogeneity, inevitably leading to a severe generalization gap, degraded accuracy, and massive computational waste. To overcome this bottleneck, rather than refining restricted model-centric architectures, we propose selective learning, a novel scene-centric paradigm. It explicitly analyzes the characteristics of the underlying scene to dynamically route inputs to the most appropriate expert models. As a concrete implementation of this paradigm, we introduce SceneSelect. Specifically, SceneSelect utilizes unsupervised clustering on interpretable geometric and kinematic features to discover a latent scene taxonomy. A highly decoupled classification module is then trained to assign real-time inputs to these scene categories, and a highly extensible, plug-and-play scheduling policy automatically dispatches the trajectory sequence to the optimal expert predictor. Crucially, this decoupled design ensures excellent generalization capabilities, allowing seamless integration with different off-the-shelf models and robust adaptation across new datasets without requiring computationally expensive joint retraining. Extensive experiments on three public benchmarks (ETH-UCY, SDD, and NBA) demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms strong single-model and ensemble baselines, achieving an average improvement of 10.5%, showcasing the effectiveness of scene-aware selective learning.

Short-term human pose prediction plays a crucial role in interactive systems, assistive robots, and emotion-aware human-computer interaction[1-3]. While current trajectory prediction models primarily rely on geometric motion cues, they often overlook the underlying emotional signals influencing human motion dynamics[4-5]. This paper investigates whether facial expression-derived emotion embeddings can provide auxiliary conditional signals for short-term pose prediction. To further evaluate multimodal conditionation in a recursive prediction setting, we propose a lightweight autoregressive predictive world model that performs 15-step rolling pose prediction. This framework combines pose keypoints with emotion embeddings through a learnable gating mechanism and performs autoregressive unfolding prediction using a recurrent sequence model based on a two-layer LSTM architecture. Experiments were conducted on two small-scale pose-emotion video datasets: controlled motion sequences with minimal facial expression changes and, natural emotion-driven motion sequences with considerable facial expression changes. The results show that simple multimodal fusion does not consistently improve prediction accuracy, while normalized gating fusion significantly enhances the performance of emotion-driven motion sequences. Furthermore, counterfactual perturbation experiments demonstrate that the predicted trajectory exhibits measurable sensitivity to changes in multimodal input, suggesting that facial expression embeddings act as auxiliary conditional signals rather than redundant features. In summary, these results indicate that incorporating facial expression-derived emotion embeddings into emotion-conditional short-term pose prediction based on a lightweight predictive world model architecture is a feasible approach.

Predicting future trajectories of surrounding traffic agents is critical for safe autonomous navigation and collision avoidance. Despite all advances in the trajectory forecasting realm, the prediction models remains vulnerable to uncertainty caused by occlusions, limited sensing range, and perception errors. Collaborative vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) approaches help reduce this uncertainty by sharing complementary information. Existing collaborative trajectory prediction methods typically fuse feature maps at the perception stage to construct a holistic scene view. Further this holistic representation is decoded into the future trajectories. Such design incurs substantial communication overhead due to the exchange of high-dimensional feature representations and often assumes idealized bandwidth and synchronization, limiting practical deployment. We address these limitations by shifting collaboration from perception to the prediction module and introducing a late-fusion framework for shared forecasts. The framework is model-agnostic and treats collaborating vehicles as independent asynchronous agents. We evaluate the approach on the OPV2V, V2V4Real, and DeepAccident datasets, comparing individual and collaborative forecasting. Across all datasets, late fusion consistently reduces miss rate and improves trajectory success rate ($\mathrm{TSR}_{0.5}$), defined as the fraction of ground-truth agents with final displacement error below 0.5 m. On the real-world V2V4Real dataset, collaborative prediction improves the success rate by $1.69\%$ and $1.22\%$ for both intelligent vehicles, respectively, compared with individual forecasting.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong reasoning capabilities and attracted increasing research attention in the field of autonomous driving (AD). However, safe application of LLMs on AD perception and prediction still requires a thorough understanding of both the dynamic traffic agents and the static road infrastructure. To this end, this study introduces a framework to evaluate the capability of LLMs in understanding the behaviors of dynamic traffic agents and the topology of road networks. The framework leverages frozen LLMs as the reasoning engine, employing a traffic encoder to extract spatial-level scene features from observed trajectories of agents, while a lightweight Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) encodes the local high-definition (HD) maps. To assess the intrinsic reasoning ability of LLMs, the extracted scene features are then transformed into LLM-compatible tokens via a reprogramming adapter. By residing the prediction burden with the LLMs, a simpler linear decoder is applied to output future trajectories. The framework enables a quantitative analysis of the influence of multi-modal information, especially the impact of map semantics on trajectory prediction accuracy, and allows seamless integration of frozen LLMs with minimal adaptation, thereby demonstrating strong generalizability across diverse LLM architectures and providing a unified platform for model evaluation.

Human behavior has the nature of mutual dependencies, which requires human-robot interactive systems to predict surrounding agents trajectories by modeling complex social interactions, avoiding collisions and executing safe path planning. While there exist many trajectory prediction methods, most of them do not incorporate the own motion of the ego agent and only model interactions based on static information. We are inspired by the humans theory of mind during trajectory selection and propose a Cross time domain intention-interactive method for conditional Trajectory prediction(CiT). Our proposed CiT conducts joint analysis of behavior intentions over time, and achieves information complementarity and integration across different time domains. The intention in its own time domain can be corrected by the social interaction information from the other time domain to obtain a more precise intention representation. In addition, CiT is designed to closely integrate with robotic motion planning and control modules, capable of generating a set of optional trajectory prediction results for all surrounding agents based on potential motions of the ego agent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed CiT significantly outperforms the existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in the benchmarks.

Path planning is usually solved by addressing either the (high-level) route planning problem (waypoint sequencing to achieve the final goal) or the (low-level) path planning problem (trajectory prediction between two waypoints avoiding collisions). However, real-world problems usually require simultaneous solutions to the route and path planning subproblems with a holistic and efficient approach. In this paper, we introduce NaviFormer, a deep reinforcement learning model based on a Transformer architecture that solves the global navigation problem by predicting both high-level routes and low-level trajectories. To evaluate NaviFormer, several experiments have been conducted, including comparisons with other algorithms. Results show competitive accuracy from NaviFormer since it can understand the constraints and difficulties of each subproblem and act consequently to improve performance. Moreover, its superior computation speed proves its suitability for real-time missions.

Vehicle trajectory prediction is central to highway perception, but deployment on roadside edge devices necessitates bounded, deterministic end-to-end latency. We present EdgeVTP, an embedded-first trajectory predictor that combines interaction-aware graph modeling with a lightweight transformer backbone and a one-shot curve decoder. By predicting future motion as compact curve parameters (anchored at the last observed position) rather than horizon-scaled autoregressive waypoints, EdgeVTP reduces decoding overhead while producing smooth trajectories. To keep runtime predictable in crowded scenes, we explicitly bound interaction complexity via a locality graph with a hard neighbor cap. Across three highway benchmarks and two Jetson-class platforms, EdgeVTP achieves the lowest measured end-to-end latency under a protocol that includes graph construction and post-processing, while attaining state-of-the-art (SotA) prediction accuracy on two of the three datasets and competitive error on other benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/SeungjinStevenKim/EdgeVTP.

Trajectory prediction is a key component of autonomous driving systems because future motions directly affect collision checking, behavior planning, and control. The task remains challenging under dense interactions, heterogeneous behaviors, multimodal futures, and limited on-board computation. Existing graph, attention, and generative predictors improve interaction reasoning or uncertainty modeling, but their high-capacity designs are often costly for real-time deployment. Lightweight predictors and conventional distillation reduce inference cost, yet usually rely on static imitation and do not explicitly correct safety-relevant teacher bias. This paper proposes \textbf{MAVEN-T}, a reinforced heterogeneous distillation framework for real-time multi-agent trajectory prediction. A high-capacity teacher models directed local interactions with a surround-aware graph encoder, combines efficient temporal filtering with shifted-window spatial attention, and decodes maneuver-specific futures through a sparse Mixture-of-Experts head. A compact GRU--Squeeze-and-Excitation student with a Low-Rank Adapted policy head is trained by feature-, attention-, and semantic-level distillation. To align prediction with downstream behavior, the student is further refined by Proximal Policy Optimization rewards for collision avoidance, comfort, and progress, while a complexity-aware curriculum and Elastic Weight Consolidation stabilize stage-wise training. Experiments on NGSIM, HighD, MoCAD, Argoverse~2, and the Waymo Open Motion Dataset evaluate accuracy, efficiency, generalization, robustness, and closed-loop safety. The student achieves 6.2$\times$ parameter compression, 3.7$\times$ inference acceleration, and 14.6,ms latency on an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Orin while maintaining competitive accuracy.

Accurate trajectory prediction is critical for safe autonomous navigation in crowded environments. While many trajectory predictors output Gaussian distributions to represent the multi-modal distribution over future pedestrian positions, the reliability of their confidence levels often remains unaddressed. This limitation can lead to unsafe or overly conservative motion planning when the predictor is integrated with an uncertainty-aware planner. Existing Gaussian trajectory predictors primarily rely on the Negative Log-Likelihood loss, which is prone to predict over- or under-confident distributions, and may compromise downstream planner safety. This paper introduces a novel loss function for calibrating prediction uncertainty which leverages Kernel Density Estimation to estimate the empirical distribution of confidence levels. The proposed formulation enforces consistency with the properties of a Gaussian assumption by explicitly matching the estimated empirical distribution to the Chi-squared distribution. To ensure accurate mean prediction, a Mean Squared Error term is also incorporated in the final loss formulation. Experimental results on real-world trajectory datasets show that our method significantly improves the reliability of confidence levels predicted by different State-Of-The-Art Gaussian trajectory predictors. We also demonstrate the importance of providing planners with reliable probabilistic insights (i.e. calibrated confidence levels) for collision-free navigation in complex scenarios. For this purpose, we integrate Gaussian trajectory predictors trained with our loss function with an uncertainty-aware Model Predictive Control on scenarios extracted from real-world datasets, achieving improved planning performance through calibrated confidence levels.

End-to-end autonomous driving increasingly leverages self-supervised video pretraining to learn transferable planning representations. However, pretraining video world models for scene understanding has so far brought only limited improvements. This limitation is compounded by the inherent ambiguity of driving: each scene typically provides only a single human trajectory, making it difficult to learn multimodal behaviors. In this work, we propose Drive-JEPA, a framework that integrates Video Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (V-JEPA) with multimodal trajectory distillation for end-to-end driving. First, we adapt V-JEPA for end-to-end driving, pretraining a ViT encoder on large-scale driving videos to produce predictive representations aligned with trajectory planning. Second, we introduce a proposal-centric planner that distills diverse simulator-generated trajectories alongside human trajectories, with a momentum-aware selection mechanism to promote stable and safe behavior. When evaluated on NAVSIM, the V-JEPA representation combined with a simple transformer-based decoder outperforms prior methods by 3 PDMS in the perception-free setting. The complete Drive-JEPA framework achieves 93.3 PDMS on v1 and 87.8 EPDMS on v2, setting a new state-of-the-art.

Autonomous driving planning systems perform nearly perfectly in routine scenarios using lightweight, rule-based methods but still struggle in dense urban traffic, where lane changes and merges require anticipating and influencing other agents. Modern motion predictors offer highly accurate forecasts, yet their integration into planning is mostly rudimental: discarding unsafe plans. Similarly, end-to-end models offer a one-way integration that avoids the challenges of joint prediction and planning modeling under uncertainty. In contrast, game-theoretic formulations offer a principled alternative but have seen limited adoption in autonomous driving. We present Bayesian Iterative Best Response (BIBeR), a framework that unifies motion prediction and game-theoretic planning into a single interaction-aware process. BIBeR is the first to integrate a state-of-the-art predictor into an Iterative Best Response (IBR) loop, repeatedly refining the strategies of the ego vehicle and surrounding agents. This repeated best-response process approximates a Nash equilibrium, enabling bidirectional adaptation where the ego both reacts to and shapes the behavior of others. In addition, our proposed Bayesian confidence estimation quantifies prediction reliability and modulates update strength, more conservative under low confidence and more decisive under high confidence. BIBeR is compatible with modern predictors and planners, combining the transparency of structured planning with the flexibility of learned models. Experiments show that BIBeR achieves an 11% improvement over state-of-the-art planners on highly interactive interPlan lane-change scenarios, while also outperforming existing approaches on standard nuPlan benchmarks.

Autonomous flight in GPS-denied indoor spaces requires trajectories that keep visual-localization error tightly bounded across varied missions. Map-based visual localization methods such as feature matching require computationally intensive map reconstruction and have feature-storage scalability issues, especially for large environments. Scene coordinate regression (SCR) provides an efficient learning-based alternative that directly predicts3D coordinates for every pixel, enabling absolute pose estimation with significant potential for onboard roboticsapplications. We present a perception-aware trajectory planner that couples an evidential learning-based SCR poseestimator with a receding-horizon trajectory optimizer. The optimizer steers the onboard camera toward reliablescene coordinates with low uncertainty, while a fixed-lag smoother fuses the low-rate SCR pose estimates with high-rate IMU data to provide a high-quality, high-rate pose estimate. In simulation, our planner reduces translationand rotation RMSE by at least 4.9% and 30.8% relative to baselines, respectively. Hardware-in-the-loop experiments validate the feasibility of our proposed trajectory planner under close-to-real deployment conditions.

While end-to-end autonomous driving has advanced significantly, prevailing methods remain fundamentally misaligned with human cognitive principles in both perception and planning. In this paper, we propose CogAD, a novel end-to-end autonomous driving model that emulates the hierarchical cognition mechanisms of human drivers. CogAD implements dual hierarchical mechanisms: global-to-local context processing for human-like perception and intent-conditioned multi-mode trajectory generation for cognitively-inspired planning. The proposed method demonstrates three principal advantages: comprehensive environmental understanding through hierarchical perception, robust planning exploration enabled by multi-level planning, and diverse yet reasonable multi-modal trajectory generation facilitated by dual-level uncertainty modeling. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and Bench2Drive demonstrate that CogAD achieves state-of-the-art performance in end-to-end planning, exhibiting particular superiority in long-tail scenarios and robust generalization to complex real-world driving conditions.

Trajectory prediction, as a critical component of autonomous driving systems, has attracted the attention of many researchers. Existing prediction algorithms focus on extracting more detailed scene features or selecting more reasonable trajectory destinations. However, in the face of dynamic and evolving future movements of the target vehicle, these algorithms cannot provide a fine-grained and continuous description of future behaviors and lane constraints, which degrades the prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we present BLNet, a novel dualstream architecture that synergistically integrates behavioral intention recognition and lane constraint modeling through parallel attention mechanisms. The framework generates fine-grained behavior state queries (capturing spatial-temporal movement patterns) and lane queries (encoding lane topology constraints), supervised by two auxiliary losses, respectively. Subsequently, a two-stage decoder first produces trajectory proposals, then performs point-level refinement by jointly incorporating both the continuity of passed lanes and future motion features. Extensive experiments on two large datasets, nuScenes and Argoverse, show that our network exhibits significant performance gains over existing direct regression and goal-based algorithms.