Chronos

Modern sequence models, from Transformers to State Space Models, have enabled powerful generative modeling across diverse domains, yet they are typically trained to predict what happens while treating when it happens as a secondary concern. In data-mining settings where events are associated with explicit timing information, this separation can limit temporal reasoning, anomaly detection, and faithful reconstruction of event chronology. A common strategy is to treat timing as an auxiliary signal, training a separate timing model using representations learned solely for event prediction. However, this two-stage approach implicitly assumes that representations optimized for event prediction already contain sufficient temporal structure. We introduce ChronoSSM, an autoregressive State Space Model (SSM) that jointly models events and timestamps with a shared backbone trained using combined token and temporal generation objectives. We compare the joint regime, where temporal supervision updates the backbone, with the two-stage regime, where timing is learned only using the frozen event representations. Across four domains spanning dense and partial timestamp supervision, joint training consistently makes inter-arrival information more recoverable from frozen representations without any systematic degradation in content-generation quality overall. Our results show that temporal supervision can produce more temporally informative representations without materially degrading autoregressive event modeling.

Temporal decisions in language-model systems often depend on both symbolic task state and elapsed wall-clock time, such as cache expiration, job completion, quota resets, deadlines, or stale sessions. We study whether elapsed time can be supplied as a non-token, system-side scalar and composed with visible symbolic state by a frozen-backbone language model. We introduce ChronoState, a compositional temporal-state benchmark in which symbolic state appears in the prompt, elapsed seconds tau are supplied through a hidden chronometric-injection channel, and the model selects a forced-choice temporal action. Here, "hidden" means hidden from the user-visible token sequence, not from model computation. Using Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct as a frozen bf16 backbone with a 31-dimensional sinusoidal-plus-log time encoding, gated FiLM residual modulation, and a rank-8 LoRA action surface, hidden-time CI reaches 0.9305 +/- 0.0134 accuracy and 0.9410 +/- 0.0103 balanced accuracy. No-time and shuffled-time controls fall to 0.5511 +/- 0.0042 and 0.3323 +/- 0.0097, respectively, with high shuffled-time wrong-state consistency supporting causal dependence on the injected scalar within the trained distribution. Generalization remains strong for held-out templates, durations, and multi-constraint compositions, but held-out quota-family transfer is weak at 0.5065 +/- 0.0559, while a fair prompt+LoRA timestamp baseline reaches 0.9893 +/- 0.0052. Thus, ChronoState supports a narrow conclusion: hidden elapsed time can be composed with symbolic task state under direct supervision, but does not establish autonomous time tracking, broad unseen-family abstraction, or superiority over prompt-injected timestamps.

Historical language change affects morphology, syntax, semantics, and pragmatics, yet computational studies typically examine these levels with incompatible representations and therefore cannot determine whether they evolve together across languages. We address this problem by asking how the magnitude and direction of change vary across linguistic levels, languages, and historical periods within a single analytical space. We introduce ChronoLens, a framework that combines frozen multilingual language models, feature-aligned crosscoders, and post-hoc linguistic interventions, and apply it to 44.98 million documents and approximately 17.2 billion tokens from five parliamentary traditions spanning 1803--2026. The resulting sparse representations agree substantially more strongly with linguistic statistics than dense embeddings or a pooled sparse autoencoder ($ρ=0.72$ versus $0.29$ and $0.28$), and reveal that morphology, syntax, semantics, and pragmatics generally change by comparable amounts within a language, while languages differ markedly in when, how far, and in which direction they change. These findings show that historical language change is a structured, multidimensional process: similar magnitudes can conceal different trajectories, and meaningful cross-linguistic comparison requires measuring both distance and direction.

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) such as Chronos have demonstrated strong forecasting capabilities across domains, yet adapting them to institutionally fragmented settings, where data cannot be centralized due to regulatory, competitive, or sovereignty constraints, remains unexplored. We introduce FedChronos, a framework for federated parameter-efficient fine-tuning of an already pre-trained TSFM, a setting that existing federated time-series work has not addressed, since prior methods either pre-train from scratch or align prototypes rather than adapt a fixed backbone. Our approach applies Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to the Chronos-T5 backbone and trains across distributed clients using FedAvg and FedProx, transmitting only lightweight adapter weights (384~KB per round, an 86$\times$ reduction over full-model exchange). We evaluate FedChronos on daily commodity prices from 15 Indian agricultural markets across 9 states, a naturally non-IID federated setting, and find that naïve LoRA fine-tuning overfits substantially on small per-client datasets, dropping below zero-shot performance. We further observe that differential privacy (DP) noise can act as implicit regularization and counteract this overfitting: in our experiments the strongest configuration ($\varepsilon = 5$) reduces mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) by 31% over zero-shot and 26% over the best traditional baseline, while bounding each round's information leakage via per-round $(\varepsilon, δ)$-differential privacy. Because the model is compact and the updates are small, the approach also suits edge AI deployments where both the network link and the client device are constrained. Overall, our findings suggest that privacy and accuracy can be complementary rather than competing objectives in federated TSFM fine-tuning.

LLM agents increasingly rely on long-term memory to support multi-session interaction and personalization. However, existing agent memory systems are designed around forward-only evolution, continuously accumulating, consolidating, and overwriting knowledge, with no principled mechanism to inspect, version, or revert prior states. This makes agents brittle under corrections, concept drift, and memory corruption, particularly after they have already been exposed to subsequent information. We present ChronoMem, a semantic version-control layer for agentic memory integrated into the production-ready, open-source Agent Development Kit by Google. ChronoMem commits whole-memory snapshots at each memory write, maintains structured version histories, and supports natural-language rollback requests by mapping undo intents to concrete historical versions through hybrid lexical and semantic retrieval, rank fusion, and reranking. We further introduce a post-exposure evaluation protocol that tests whether an agent can behave counterfactually after rollback by answering queries and summarizing history as if future updates had never occurred. On long-horizon conversational benchmarks augmented with evolving memory states and rollback tasks, ChronoMem substantially improves rollback-consistent question answering and history summarization relative to prompt-only and retrieval-only baselines, while achieving strong performance in semantic version selection. To our knowledge, ChronoMem is the first open-source system and benchmark for systematic semantic global memory rollback in LLM agents.

Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) has been widely adopted in transformer-based large language models. However, its log-linear frequency schedule, originally designed to produce long-term attention decay, limits its adoption in domains with more complex distance-correlation patterns, such as temporal periodicity in sequential recommendation. We investigate the expressiveness of general query/key rotations and find that any normalized continuous positive-definite attention modulation function can be approximated by random rotations induced by its own Fourier transform, which we term Random Fourier Rotations. Building on this theory, we propose ClockRoPE for routine modeling in sequential recommendation, where rotation frequencies are derived from periodic attention modulation functions. In online A/B tests, ClockRoPE demonstrates consistent improvements in valued engagement metrics, and has been successfully deployed in production-scale generative retrieval system at a major video-sharing platform.

Short-term Heart Rate Variability (HRV) forecasting could provide clinicians with actionable lead time for detecting autonomic dysfunction and adverse cardiac events. Consumer wearable devices generate fragmented, artifact-rich HRV signals that challenge conventional forecasting approaches. In this study, we evaluated the forecasting ability of three Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs), TimesFM, Chronos, and MOIRAI, against traditional baselines (Mean, Exponential Smoothing, and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average) on real-world wearable data collected from 49 healthy individuals. To address data fragmentation, we introduce a variability-preserving imputation method that augments linear interpolation with locally adaptive stochastic noise, retaining physiological dynamics essential for accurate forecasting. The results show that TSFMs outperformed all baselines without fine-tuning, achieving average Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) between 0.81 and 0.87 across TSFMs and both context lengths (32 and 64 time steps), with Chronos and TimesFM as the top models, though MOIRAI showed limited gains over baselines. With up to a 2-hour forecast horizon, the results establish a baseline for TSFMs' performance on a real-world dataset, highlighting domain-specific fine-tuning as a promising direction for clinical deployment.

The transition from stateless generative models in artificial intelligence to stateful, autonomous agents represents an architectural evolution that, while providing the capabilities of long-term planning and the automation of enterprise workflows, also represents the introduction of a new form of security threat, the Chronos Vulnerability. The Chronos Vulnerability represents the threat of memory-based attacks, including the Memory Injection Attack (MINJA) and the sleeper agent, in which the internal belief system of the autonomous agent is compromised, effectively decoupling the attack vector from the final catastrophic event. This study formalizes the threat model for persistence-based attacks and the threat of Dynamics Blindness in the context of the World of Workflows benchmark, demonstrating that traditional endpoint content filters are insufficient for the current stateful architecture. Consequently, this study synthesizes a defense-in-depth landscape, categorizing emerging frameworks such as diagnostic trajectory guardrails (AgentDoG), formal temporal verification (Agent-C), immunological memory consensus (A-MemGuard), and hardware-anchored trust via GPU-based Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) and Zero-Trust memory architectures.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems retrieve and integrate external knowledge to ground large language model (LLM) outputs. However, current RAG architectures treat all retrieved facts as equally valid regardless of temporal provenance, leading to temporal hallucination, where plausible but obsolete facts corrupt the output. A clinical lab reading from yesterday is actionable; the same reading from six months ago is noise. We present Chronofy, a three-layer neuro-symbolic framework implementing the Temporal-Logical Decay Architecture (TLDA) that embeds temporal validity directly into the representation, retrieval, and reasoning layers of RAG systems. Layer 1 reserves a dedicated temporal subspace within Matryoshka embeddings to make fact age structurally irremovable from the representation. Layer 2 integrates learnable exponential decay functions into graph-based retrieval, where the decay coefficient $β_j$ is grounded in Bayesian decision theory as an approximation of twice the latent process mean-reversion rate. Layer 3 applies Signal Temporal Logic (STL) robustness functions to evaluate the temporal validity of retrieved knowledge, not LLM output confidence, and enforces the possibilistic weakest-link principle to bound output confidence by the most decayed evidence in the reasoning chain. We evaluate Chronofy on temporal knowledge graph forecasting benchmarks, the TimE temporal QA benchmark, and a domain-specific sensitivity analysis, demonstrating that explicit temporal decay modeling improves retrieval precision, reduces temporal hallucination, and enables principled data re-acquisition triggers when temporal context is insufficient.

Remote sensing offers an unparalleled vantage point for observing the Earth's long-term surface evolution, yet it demands that a model not only perceive land cover at isolated moments, but also track changes, memorize evolution histories, and reason across time and space. However, existing studies lack a systematic evaluation that dissects these distinct competencies. To fill this gap, we introduce ChronoBench, a multidimensional benchmark that decomposes this task into four progressive cognitive levels (i.e., Land Cover Perception, Temporal Recognition, Long-Term Memory, and Spatio-Temporal Reasoning). The ChronoBench comprises 12 sub-tasks and 17,689 rigorously validated QA (Question-Answer) pairs. Extensive evaluations reveal that mainstream MLLMs fall drastically behind human experts, with Long-Term Memory emerging as the most critical bottleneck. Motivated by this finding, we further propose GeoChrono, an MLLM with enhanced capabilities for tracing, memorizing, and reasoning about long-term geographic evolution. Leveraging the physical prior that geographic parcels remain spatially fixed while their semantics evolve, we design a Temporal Trajectory Encoder~(TempEnc) that constructs per-location temporal trajectories for dedicated land cover evolution modeling, and we introduce a Coarse-to-Fine Token Compressor~(C2FComp) that adaptively preserves dynamic regions while compressing the static background. To support training, we also construct ChronoInstruct, a 104K-sample instruction-tuning dataset spanning all competency levels for training. GeoChrono achieves state-of-the-art performance on ChronoBench, surpassing the leading commercial MLLMs by over 20%, while C2FComp reduces visual tokens by over 56% while retaining GeoChrono's 94.6% performance. The code and data will be available at https://github.com/IntelliSensing/GeoChrono

Self-refinement often fails to strengthen few-shot inductive reasoning in large language models. Prompting a model to explicitly state its inferred rule does little on its own. What actually matters is a structurally enforced isolation between reasoning stages, so that information can only pass between them as a compressed symbolic state. We introduce \textbf{Hourglass reasoning}, which enforces strict context isolation between reasoning stages. The frozen LLM acts as a meta-constructor, building for each task a symbolic encoder--decoder: an Induction module compresses the support examples into a schema $φ$ (encoder) and a transient scaffold $z$; a Deduction module derives rule $T$ (decoder) from these and discards $z$; an Implementer compiles $(φ, T)$ into artifacts; an error-driven Refiner revises $(φ, T)$ and regenerates artifacts from scratch. Only $(φ, T)$ crosses stage boundaries, so all refinement stays anchored to the rule. We evaluate Hourglass across three benchmarks spanning visual abstraction, hardware synthesis, and textual rule induction, using GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro. On ARC-AGI-2, it raises best-of-5 accuracy by up to 14 points over an iterative-refinement baseline. On ChipBench, it nearly doubles Verilog synthesis accuracy with GPT-5.5, from 31% to 58%. BBEH-Linguini draws on puzzles from the International Linguistics Olympiad, a setting where prior work has shown that explicit verbalization can hurt performance. Hourglass mitigates this tendency, and on Gemini 3.1 Pro, it reverses the effect entirely. Ablations confirm that these gains come from the isolation between stages and the quality of the initial induction, not from prompt wording or the particular symbolic form used. It is how information flows through the reasoning process, rather than the language used to express it, that drives inductive reasoning in frozen LLMs.

Three-dimensional (3D) molecule generation has been dominated by diffusion models, which achieve strong generation quality but typically require the molecular size to be specified a priori. Recent autoregressive approaches have substantially narrowed the performance gap while naturally supporting variable-length generation and conditioning on partial molecular context. However, balancing unconditional and context-conditioned generation remains challenging. We introduce KRONOS, a latent autoregressive diffusion framework that generates molecules in the latent space of a pre-trained autoencoder, jointly modeling molecular graph topology and geometry, while retaining the flexibility of autoregressive generation. We further introduce a mixed training strategy inspired by Fill-in-the Middle (FIM) paradigm, enabling both unconditional and fragment-conditioned molecular generation within a single left-to-right autoregressive model. Experiments on QM9 and GEOM-Drugs demonstrate that KRONOS achieves leading unconditional generation performance among autoregressive methods, while remaining competitive with diffusion models. Moreover, fragment-conditioned generation is achieved with negligible impact on unconditional generation performance, demonstrating that both generation paradigms can be supported within a single architecture.

Low-voltage load forecasting is an important component in current and future energy systems with a high degree of electrification and decentralized generation. However, current forecasting methods require significant manual effort, often lack uncertainty estimation and proper peak prediction, and they are often not adequately evaluated in terms of grid requirements. In the present study, we provide an extensive evaluation of short-term net load forecasts of 200 real-world low-voltage feeders with a focus on the rapidly evolving time series foundation models. Our study compares Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS to six baseline models and demonstrates superior performance, in particular for Chronos-2. An ablation study, in which weather covariates are omitted, shows that time series foundation models adapt to increased uncertainty, despite the importance of weather information. A novel application-oriented metric links the model's forecasting capabilities in peak prediction to the trade-off in grid asset planning and operation between cost reduction and minimizing the risk of failure.

General-purpose robot policies should be modeled as dynamical systems, yet many VLA and generative imitation policies still rely on present observations or short windows. This Markovian shortcut fails in memory-dependent manipulation: identical observations can demand different actions after different histories. We present Chronos, a physics-informed full-history framework for non-Markovian long-horizon manipulation. The key idea is to elevate observation history from auxiliary context to the latent state of the policy dynamics. At each physical control step, Chronos forms one state-representative token by fusing observation and proprioception, so the token sequence is aligned one-to-one with physical time. A selective state space model propagates this causal historical state, which conditions a multimodal coarse action prior through implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE). This prior is then refined by a second-order Schrodinger-inspired bridge that predicts acceleration fields, yielding smoother and more physically grounded robot motion. Across 16 simulated tasks and 4 real-world experiments, Chronos is evaluated on precision insertion, general manipulation, and memory-dependent long-horizon control. On RMBench, where success requires remembering task phase, Chronos achieves 73.6% average success, outperforming Markovian VLA baseline pi0.5 by +62.4 percentage points, a 6.6x relative gain, while using 10x fewer parameters. It also surpasses the memory VLA Mem-0 by 22.8 points while using over 30x fewer parameters. In real-world dual-arm experiments using a single RGB camera, Chronos achieves 78% average success over four tasks, including 72% on the three memory-dependent tasks, whereas pi0.5 achieves 7% overall and 0% on the memory-dependent subset. These results suggest that history should not be treated as auxiliary context, but as the latent state of the manipulation policy.

Timely intensive care dictates survival, yet emergency infrastructure remains unevenly distributed across Sri Lanka. While pre-hospital services have expanded, the transition to definitive care remains a critical bottleneck. This study evaluates national emergency resilience by quantifying the gap between clinical demand and the availability of specialized resources across all 25 districts. Using the latest national epidemiological data and terrain-aware H3 hexagonal modeling, we analyzed accessibility for seven critical conditions based on spatial gaps, clinical need-gaps, lethality, coverage, and resource availability. Based on these metrics, unsupervised K-Means clustering was applied to categorize districts into four policy-actionable archetypes: Critical Structural Exclusion, Institutional Mirages, Operational Capacity Strain, and High-Resilience Benchmarks. Our study suggests that severe service deficits exist in the Northern and Eastern provinces, where spatial gaps exceed 70%, rendering the Golden Hour operationally impossible. Notably, specialist scarcity drives systemic pressure more than bed capacity; underserved regions effectively function as institutional mirages. This study suggests that improving accessibility by 25% in high-priority clusters would reduce the national need-gap by 9.65%, providing a roadmap for the strategic redistribution of specialists to ensure healthcare equity.

This paper aims to bridge the semantic gap between visual content and natural language understanding by leveraging historical events in the real world as a source of knowledge for caption generation. We propose VisChronos, a novel framework that utilizes large language models and dense captioning models to identify and describe real-life events from a single input image. Our framework can automatically generate detailed and context-aware event descriptions, enhancing the descriptive quality and contextual relevance of generated captions to address the limitations of traditional methods in capturing contextual narratives. Furthermore, we introduce a new dataset, EventCap (https://zenodo.org/records/14004909), specifically constructed using the proposed framework, designed to enhance the model's ability to identify and understand complex events. The user study demonstrates the efficacy of our solution in generating accurate, coherent, and event-focused descriptions, paving the way for future research in event-centric image understanding.

Text-to-video (T2V) diffusion models have made it increasingly easy to synthesize realistic and temporally coherent videos, while recent personalization techniques allow such models to imitate a specific subject, style, or motion pattern from only a few reference clips. This capability creates a new data-misuse risk: videos shared online can be collected and used for unauthorized T2V fine-tuning. Existing protective perturbations are mainly designed for image recognition or text-to-image personalization, and therefore focus on corrupting static appearance cues rather than the temporal denoising dynamics that make video personalization possible. To address this gap, we introduce ChronoLock, the first proactive protection framework that makes released videos difficult to exploit for unauthorized T2V personalization. ChronoLock targets the motion-learning process directly by optimizing bounded perturbations over temporal denoising trajectories. It first disrupts intra-chunk temporal adaptation with a diffusion objective that combines fitting error, frame-relative denoising relations, and adjacent-frame variation, and then enlarges inter-chunk boundary mismatch to weaken long-range motion continuity. Transformation-sampled updates further improve robustness to common preprocessing operations.Experiments on UCF Sports and HMDB51 with popular T2V backbones and personalization scheme show that ChronoLock effectively reduces motion imitation under automatic metrics and human evaluation.

Accurate survival prediction is essential for personalized treatment planning in head and neck cancer, yet remains challenging due to the heterogeneous and high-dimensional nature of multimodal clinical data. While deep survival models have improved predictive performance over classical statistical approaches, existing methods typically rely on static fusion strategies or temporally agnostic modeling, limiting their ability to capture structured clinical workflows. In this work, we propose ChronoSurv, a heterogeneous hierarchical directed graph framework for multimodal survival analysis. ChronoSurv represents patient care as a progression-aware clinical trajectory using directed graphs aligned with key diagnostic steps. A hierarchical topology incorporates fine-grained, coarse, and global representations, further supporting flexible adaptation to missing modalities, while heterogeneous message passing models complex and asymmetric relationships across modalities and clinical steps. Experimental results on two public datasets demonstrate that ChronoSurv achieves state-of-the-art discriminative performance while maintaining statistically reliable calibration. Comprehensive ablation studies further confirm the contribution of each architectural component, highlighting the potential of trajectory-aware graph modeling for multimodal survival prediction.

Human perception of visual scenes is inherently temporal. We instinctively recognise whether a fruit is ripening or rotting, whether construction is progressing or being demolished, and approximately how much time separates two photographs of the same subject. Whether large vision-language models (VLMs) share this competence remains an open and practically important question. We introduce CHRONOSIGHT, a rigorously controlled benchmark evaluating five dimensions of visual temporal reasoning: CHRONORANK (chronological ordering of image sequences), CHRONOLOCATE (ordinal stage localisation from a single image), CHRONODELTA (estimation of time elapsed between two images on a logarithmic scale), CHRONOREVERSE (detection of temporally reversed sequences), and CHRONOODD (identification of a temporal outlier within a set). The benchmark comprises 1{,}000 items across eight process families (biological growth, food transformation, physical weathering, construction, environmental change, human ageing, astronomical phenomena, and urban dynamics) spanning timescales from minutes to millennia. We evaluate eight open-source VLMs (500 M to 19 B parameters) under two prompting regimes and collect human performance baselines. Human performance averages 0.89 across tasks; the best open model (Qwen2.5-VL-7B) reaches 0.40 under direct prompting, a gap we term chronological blindness. Lightweight LoRA fine-tuning on 151 examples raises CHRONODELTA accuracy from near-zero to 0.43, transferring zero-shot to related tasks (CHRONOODD: 0.37; CHRONOREVERSE: 0.64)suggesting the bottleneck is partly instruction following rather than visual perception. Benchmark, code, and predictions will be released upon acceptance.

Semantic IDs are crucial in generative recommendation, but with a fundamental limitation: temporal information is not well incorporated into semantic IDs. Instead, time influences recommendation only implicitly (e.g., through session construction heuristics, preference alignment, or sequence order), while existing semantic ID learning remains entirely time-agnostic. This design conflates interactions occurring under distinct temporal contexts into identical semantic representations, implicitly assuming that item semantics and user intent are temporally stationary. Such an assumption is misaligned with real-world recommendation scenarios, where evolving interaction rhythms play a central role. In this work, we investigate where and how the explicit time should be incorporated into semantic ID for generative recommendation. First, we systematically characterize the design space along three orthogonal dimensions of temporal signals and present a unified framework, ChronoID, for time-aware semantic ID learning. Then, by contributing a new time-explicit generation recommendation benchmark, ChronoID answers the questions: what is the effective way of infusing time, how to design the architecture, and where does the gain come from.

Most statistical and machine learning methods for directed interactions focus on pairwise effects among variables. Even existing cyclic models represent feedback primarily through node-level dependencies, making large-scale recurrent organization difficult to estimate and compare. This limitation is particularly acute in biological and neural systems, where interactions are highly recurrent and involve many overlapping cycles. We introduce a variational framework for statistical inference on cyclic interactions. Directed interactions are represented as edge flows on a simplicial complex and evolved under an energy-minimizing dynamical system. The resulting dynamics separate transient interaction components from persistent harmonic flows, yielding a low-dimensional cycle space that captures stable recurrent organization. Rather than enumerating individual cycles, the proposed framework represents cyclic interactions as elements of a Hilbert space, enabling projection, averaging, comparison, and population-level statistical inference. We establish theoretical properties of the harmonic projection, including characterization of the cycle space, variance reduction, and population inference. Simulations demonstrate substantially improved recovery of cyclic structure in dense recurrent systems compared with existing directed-interaction methods. Applied to resting-state fMRI from 400 human subjects, the framework reveals reproducible large-scale cyclic organization that is not detectable through edgewise averaging. These results provide a scalable statistical framework for studying recurrent interactions in high-dimensional dynamical systems.

Recent advancements in Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated remarkable proficiency in open-world reasoning and understanding. However, a critical ambiguity persists: it remains unclear whether these models genuinely synthesize cross-modal information to construct physically grounded reasoning chains, or if they merely exploit strong language priors to mask single-modality reliance, thereby hallucinating advanced multimodal capabilities. Motivated by this, and to rigorously mitigate language modality bias and shortcuts, we propose a novel multimodal Chrono}logical Physical Dynamics Reasoning Benchmark ChronoPhyBench, which unifies next state prediction with Visual Question Answering (VQA) paradigms by conditioning on historical video context and textual captions to enforce models to deduce subsequent physical states through both single image selection and the inherently more complex task of multiple frame chronological sorting. Concurrently, we construct a large-scale multimodal reasoning dataset curated using the ChronoPhyBench criteria, comprising over 10,000 long-form videos paired with meticulously annotated captions, totaling 5M tokens. Our experimental evaluations reveal a stark contrast to conclusions drawn by previous benchmarks. The capacity of current open-source models to perform physically grounded multimodal reasoning remains in its infancy. Ultimately, this work seeks to systematically stress-test the reasoning capabilities of multimodal models, quantify hallucination rates, and advance the development of Physical AI, thereby providing the community with a robust and transparent evaluation framework toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Time series anomaly detection is a crucial task in various domains, including finance, healthcare, and industry. However, existing methods often struggle to generalize across different datasets, especially when anomalies are subtle or context-dependent. To solve this issue, we introduce ChronosAD, a novel architecture for anomaly detection that uses a time series foundation model as a feature extractor. Specifically, it employs a two-stage pipeline: first, it uses the foundation model to extract embeddings for each time series in a zero-shot manner. Then, a custom-developed Temporal Block, composed of Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) and Multi-Head Attention, refines these embeddings to capture temporal dependencies and highlight salient patterns. Unlike previous approaches, our model requires minimal task-specific tuning and demonstrates robust generalization across a wide range of domains, including industrial, medical, cyber-physical, and automotive systems. Extensive experiments on 11 benchmarks show that ChronosAD outperforms existing methods by 4.72% in AUC and 6.60% in AP on average. The source code is available at https://github.com/intelligolabs/ChronosAD.

Temporal knowledge-graph data marketplaces face three coupled failures in static designs: stale hybrid index shortcuts reduce recall as edges evolve, stationary Shapley pricing misattributes value after distribution shifts, and uncoordinated agents over-consume a shared differential-privacy budget. We present CHRONOS, a three-layer architecture providing a unified treatment of these challenges with explicit public and private separation. Layer one applies neural-ODE temporal decay to shortcut edges, providing a per-query expected recall-loss bound of Big-O of Pq lambda delta t, with a monotone-envelope guarantee reducing bound looseness to 1.8 to 3.2 times observed loss. Layer two conditions Shapley valuation on detected changepoints and provides finite-sample error guarantees under noise. Layer three uses EXP3-IX to achieve Big-O of the square root of T log T regret while enforcing epsilon and delta differential privacy via moments accounting. CHRONOS releases a privatized affinity matrix per epoch using the Gaussian mechanism; all retrieval and ranking are post-processing, incurring no extra privacy cost. We provide multi-epoch settlement, scalability analysis for 500 sellers, and comparisons against accelerated baselines. Across four benchmarks, CHRONOS shows 0.937 recall at ten, 2.74 queries per second, 161 ms latency, and total epsilon of 4.25 at delta of 10 to the power of negative 6 under zCDP composition. These results indicate a competitive operating point. A limitation is that at this privacy level, released valuations remain noise-dominated; utility derives primarily from public index routing and adaptive scheduling driven by low-sensitivity statistics.

Video prediction is increasingly viewed as a path toward generalizable world models, yet it remains unclear whether these systems learn underlying causal structure or merely exploit superficial visual correlations for future prediction. We introduce CRONOS, an intervention-based benchmark designed to evaluate counterfactual physical consistency: whether a model's predictions of physical events respond appropriately to controlled changes in the visual input, such as variations of scene context, viewpoint, object appearance, and object category. Built in a photorealistic Unreal Engine environment, CRONOS enables controlled, high-fidelity generation of videos across diverse scenes and dynamics. In contrast to previous benchmarks, CRONOS systematically intervenes on four key factors - viewpoint, scene, object category, and object appearance - while keeping the underlying physical event type, such as a collision, occlusion, or fall, fixed. Our evaluation of recent open-source video generators reveals substantial failures in counterfactual physical consistency: prediction quality for the same physical event type is affected by appearance, environment, and, particularly by viewpoint changes. CRONOS provides a controlled and reproducible testbed for diagnosing how the quality of generated videos changes for different interventions, establishing a concrete target for developing models that perform consistently across changes of multiple conditions. The dataset and code are available at our project page.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have become a new component of the state-of-the-art in general time series forecasting. However, adapting them to specialized classification tasks remains constrained by two interconnected challenges: the quadratic cost of standard attention mechanisms and the inability to disentangle the structural components underlying time series variability. This technical report introduces ChronoVAE-HOPE, a next-generation TSFM that reconciles massive generalization with structured latent representation for time series classification. The core of the proposal is a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) framework built upon the HOPE Block, which replaces quadratic attention with a dual-memory system: Titans modules for dynamic short-term retention and a Continuum Memory System (CMS) for the abstraction of long-term historical context. A key architectural novelty is the disentangled latent space, which factorizes representations into independent trend and seasonal components via dedicated encoder heads and separate decoder pathways. ChronoVAE-HOPE undergoes self-supervised pre-training on the Monash archive, combining a Masked Time Series Modeling (MTSM) auxiliary objective with a disentangled VAE reconstruction loss. The pre-trained encoder is subsequently frozen and used to generate fixed-length embeddings for downstream classification on the UCR benchmark datasets. Empirical results demonstrate strong performance across diverse temporal domains, particularly in settings characterized by strict causal structure. ChronoVAE-HOPE establishes a robust and interpretable framework for the adaptation of foundation models to time series classification through structured generative representations.

In recent years, large language models have shown substantial potential in psychological support tasks. However, existing psychological counseling data mostly rely on single-turn question answering or short multi-turn dialogues, making it difficult to characterize how college students' psychological distress accumulates, interacts, and gradually evolves over long periods within campus life events. To address this issue, this paper proposes Psy-Chronicle, a structured data-generation framework for synthesizing long-horizon campus psychological counseling dialogues. We generate a semester-spanning temporal stress event graph to model the chronological order and evolutionary dependencies among campus stress events. Through interactive simulation between a student agent and a counselor agent, together with a structured memory integration mechanism, Psy-Chronicle generates long-horizon dialogues with continuity across counseling sessions. Based on Psy-Chronicle, we construct and open-source CPCD, a Chinese long-horizon dialogue dataset for college psychological counseling, containing 100 student profiles, 90,000 counseling dialogues. We further build CPCD-Bench to evaluate models' long-horizon campus counseling capabilities from three dimensions: session-level response, long-horizon memory recall, and temporal-causal reasoning. Experimental results show that CPCD effectively improves session-level response generation and long-horizon memory recall for models with the same base architecture. Meanwhile, improvements in temporal-causal reasoning remain limited, indicating that event-chain organization and causal explanation are key challenges in long-horizon psychological counseling modeling. The related code and data are available at: https://github.com/EdwinUSTB/Psy-Chronicle

Recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise zero-shot forecasting capabilities with minimal task-specific training. While these models have shown strong performance across generic benchmarks, their applicability in volatile, complex electricity markets remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study provides a systematic empirical evaluation of several TSFMs, specifically Chronos-2 and Chronos-Bolt (developed by Amazon), and TimesFM 2.5 (provided by Google), for forecasting Belgian day-ahead and imbalance electricity prices. For both considered markets, Chronos-2 in ARX mode produces the most accurate forecasts. Compared with the best ensemble prediction from other machine learning methods, Chronos-2's Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is 5% lower for the day-ahead market. In contrast, the model yields 10% higher MAE predicting imbalance prices across all forecast horizons, except for the two-hour-ahead horizon. Moreover, we find that TSFMs exhibit genuine zero-shot forecasting skills but still struggle under extreme market conditions.

We study inventory control with decision-dependent censoring, focusing on the censored or repeated newsvendor (R-NV), where each order quantity determines whether demand is fully observed or censored by sales. Existing approaches based on parametric Thompson sampling (TS) can be brittle under prior mismatch, while offline imputation methods need not transfer to online learning. Motivated by the predictive view of decision making, we combine these ideas by taking oracle actions on learned completions of latent demand. We propose in-context generative posterior sampling (ICGPS), which uses modern generative models that are meta-trained offline and deployed online by in-context autoregressive generation. Theoretically, we show that the Bayesian regret of ICGPS with a learned completion kernel is bounded by the Bayesian regret of a TS benchmark with the ideal completion kernel plus a deployment penalty scaling as $\sqrt{T}$ times the square root of the completion mismatch. This yields a plug-in template for operational problems with known TS regret bounds. For R-NV, we derive sublinear Bayesian regret by reducing censored feedback to bandit convex optimization feedback. We also show that, under reasonable coverage and stability assumptions, the online completion mismatch is controlled by the offline censored predictive mismatch, so offline predictive quality transfers to online performance. Practically, we instantiate ICGPS with ChronosFlow, which combines a frozen time-series transformer backbone with a trainable conditional normalizing-flow head for fast censoring-consistent sampling. In benchmark experiments, ChronosFlow-ICGPS matches correctly specified TS, outperforms myopic and UCB-style baselines, and is robust to prior mismatch and distribution shift. ChronosFlow-ICGPS also performs well for the real-world SuperStore dataset, especially under heavy censoring.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance, often outperforming supervised models in zero-shot settings. Recent TSFM architectures, such as Chronos-2 and TabPFN-TS, aim to integrate covariates. In this paper, we design controlled experiments based on simple target-covariate relationships to assess this integration capability. Our results show that TabPFN-TS captures these relationships more effectively than Chronos-2, especially for short horizons, suggesting that the strong benchmark performance of Chronos-2 does not automatically translate into optimal modeling of simple covariate-target dependencies.

Semantic communication (SC) aims to reduce transmission overhead by conveying task-relevant information rather than raw data. However, existing SC approaches for video largely focus on pixel-level reconstruction or rely on complex spatiotemporal pipelines, leading to excessive bandwidth usage and latency that are unsuitable for low-resource deployments. In this paper, we propose ChronoSC, a task-oriented semantic communication framework for Video Question Answering (VideoQA). ChronoSC introduces Chrono-Color Stacking, a lightweight and lossless projection scheme that encodes temporal video dynamics into a single static image, enabling extreme temporal compression before transmission. This compact semantic representation is transmitted using a lightweight Deep Joint Source-Channel Coding (DeepJSCC) transceiver and explicitly reconstructed at the receiver. Unlike latent-space methods, explicit visual reconstruction enables the direct reuse of pre-trained vision-language models; specifically, a pre-trained BLIP model is employed to infer answers from noisy, reconstructed chrono-images. Experiments on the CLEVRER dataset show that ChronoSC achieves up to 192 times bandwidth reduction compared to raw video transmission while maintaining high VideoQA accuracy.

Recent work on causal abstraction, in particular graphical approaches focusing on causal structure between clusters of variables, aims to summarize a high-dimensional causal structure in terms of a low-dimensional one. Existing methods for learning such summaries from data assume that both the high- and low-dimensional structures are acyclic, which is helpful for causal effect identification and reasoning but excludes many high-dimensional models and thus limits applicability. We show that in the linear non-Gaussian (LiNG) setting, the high-dimensional acyclicity assumption can be relaxed while still allowing recovery of a low-dimensional causal directed acyclic graph (DAG). We further connect identifiability of this low-dimensional DAG to existing results: LiNG models with cycles are observationally identifiable only up to an equivalence class whose members differ by reversals of directed cycles; our low-dimensional DAG, which is invariant across all members of a given equivalence class, thus forms a natural representative of the class. While existing approaches for learning this observational equivalence class over high-dimensional variables have exponential time complexity, our low-dimensional summary is learned in worst-case cubic time and comes with explicit bounds on the sample complexity. We provide open source code and experiments on synthetic data to corroborate our theoretical results.

Using Chronos-2, an open-source time-series foundation model, we evaluate pretrained time-series models for economic and financial forecasting with an emphasis on whether multivariate (MV) inputs improve accuracy relative to univariate (UV) baselines. The study covers two panels -- the Magnificent-7 equities and U.S. Treasury interest rates -- as well as a combined panel, using rolling monthly evaluations from 2000--2025. We vary input window lengths and forecast horizons and report RMSE and MAPE. Across datasets, MV forecasts consistently outperform UV forecasts, with especially strong gains for interest rates and meaningful improvements for equities. Series-level comparisons show MV improvements in every case, and error dispersion is generally lower under MV inputs. We also provide parameter-heatmap and time-series visualizations. However, mixing time series across equity and interest rate markets reduces forecast accuracy, indicating that adding noisy context degrades model performance. Overall, the results indicate that foundation models can leverage cross-series information to improve forecast accuracy in finance, and that the benefits are strongest when related series are modeled jointly under disciplined rolling protocols. Other than using an open-source foundation model, this paper also showcases how AI may be used for financial research.

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of the ability of Chronos foundation model to process and internally represent frequency domain information. Foundation models that process time-series data offer practitioners a unified architecture capable of learning generic temporal representations across diverse tasks and domains, reducing the need for task-specific feature engineering and enabling transfer across signal modalities. Despite their growing adoption, the extent to which such models encode fundamental signal properties remains insufficiently characterised. We address this gap by analysing Chronos under controlled conditions, starting from the simplest class of signals: discrete sinusoids generated at fixed frequencies. Using lightweight online minimum description length probes applied to the decoder architecture, we test for the presence and separability of frequency information in the model's internal representations. The results provide insight into how frequential content is captured across the frequency spectrum and highlight regimes in which representation quality may degrade or require particular care. These findings offer practical guidance for users of Chronos in signal processing and information fusion contexts, and contribute to ongoing efforts to improve the interpretability and evaluation of foundation models for temporal data.

Stabilized regression aims to identify a set of predictors whose conditional relationship with a response variable remains invariant across different environments. Existing graphical characterizations of the stable blanket are mainly developed for structural causal models (SCMs) without hidden variables or causal cycles. However, latent variables and feedback relationships naturally arise in many applications, and they can change both the Markov blanket and the set of predictors that remain stable under interventions. This paper studies stable blankets in graphical causal models with hidden variables, causal cycles, and both features simultaneously. For models with hidden variables, we use acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) and $m$-separation to characterize the Markov blanket and to construct intervention-stable predictor sets. We introduce the notion of an intervened sub-district and use it to describe how interventions may affect districts connected to the response. For models with cycles, we work with directed graphs (DGs) and directed mixed graphs (DMGs) together with $σ$-separation, treating strongly connected components (SCCs) as the basic graphical units. We then combine these ideas to analyze models with both hidden variables and cycles. The main results give graphical characterizations of Markov blankets, stable frontiers, and stable blankets in these generalized settings. In particular, we identify conditions under which the response is conditionally independent of intervention variables given a suitable predictor set, and we describe when such sets are minimal or unique. These results extend the graphical interpretation of stabilized regression beyond acyclic fully observed models.

Composed Image Retrieval (CIR) is a flexible image retrieval paradigm that enables users to accurately locate the target image through a multimodal query composed of a reference image and modification text. Although this task has demonstrated promising applications in personalized search and recommendation systems, it encounters a severe challenge in practical scenarios known as the Noise Triplet Correspondence (NTC) problem. This issue primarily arises from the high cost and subjectivity involved in annotating triplet data. To address this problem, we identify two central challenges: the precise estimation of composed semantic discrepancy and the insufficient progressive adaptation to modification discrepancy. To tackle these challenges, we propose a cHrono-synergiA roBust progressIve learning framework for composed image reTrieval (HABIT), which consists of two core modules. First, the Mutual Knowledge Estimation Module quantifies sample cleanliness by calculating the Transition Rate of mutual information between the composed feature and the target image, thereby effectively identifying clean samples that align with the intended modification semantics. Second, the Dual-consistency Progressive Learning Module introduces a collaborative mechanism between the historical and current models, simulating human habit formation to retain good habits and calibrate bad habits, ultimately enabling robust learning under the presence of NTC. Extensive experiments conducted on two standard CIR datasets demonstrate that HABIT significantly outperforms most methods under various noise ratios, exhibiting superior robustness and retrieval performance. Codes are available at https://github.com/Lee-zixu/HABIT

Time-series forecasting is central to many scientific and industrial domains, such as energy systems, climate modeling, finance, and retail. While forecasting methods have evolved from classical statistical models to automated, and neural approaches, the surrounding software ecosystem remains anchored to the traditional Python numerical stack. Existing libraries rely on interpreter-driven execution and object-oriented abstractions, limiting composability, large-scale parallelism, and integration with modern differentiable and accelerator-oriented workflows. Meanwhile, today's forecasting increasingly involves large collections of heterogeneous time series data, irregular covariates, and frequent retraining, placing new demands on scalability and execution efficiency. JAX offers an alternative paradigm to traditional stateful numerical computation frameworks based on pure functions and program transformations such as just-in-time compilation and automatic vectorization, enabling end-to-end optimization across CPUs, GPUs, and TPUs. However, this modern paradigm has not yet been fully incorporated into the design of forecasting systems. We introduce Chronax, a JAX-native time-series forecasting library that rethinks forecasting abstractions around functional purity, composable transformations, and accelerator-ready execution. By representing preprocessing, modeling, and multi-horizon prediction as pure JAX functions, Chronax enables scalable multi-series forecasting, model-agnostic conformal uncertainty quantification, and seamless integration with modern machine learning and scientific computing pipelines.

AI is increasingly supporting, accelerating, and automating scientific discovery across subjects. Yet, the adoption of AI in historical research remains limited due to the lack of specialised solutions for historians. To change this, we introduce Chronos, an AI Co-Historian designed to support historians. It allows researchers to create and customize research workflows through natural-language interaction and share these as Chronos-Extensions with others. Chronos specifically addresses the need of historians for a tool that is specialised, non-technical, highly customizable, and facilitates extensive task evaluation. As a first extension, we introduce Chronos-Extract, which enables researchers to automate the targeted extraction of information from image scans of historical sources. We benchmark Chronos-Extract on three historical source corpora and find that it achieves high task-accuracy across primary sources spanning three centuries and diverse languages, layouts, and typefaces. Chronos is openly available and ready for historians to use on their own primary and secondary sources.

The architectural shape of dense Transformers has remained remarkably stable: narrow-wide-narrow feed-forward networks (FFNs) consume most non-embedding parameters. Motivated by theoretical and empirical evidences that residual wide-narrow-wide (hourglass) MLPs remain expressive despite bottlenecks, we revisit whether this architectural convention is necessary for dense language models. We study Hourglass Transformers, which replace the conventional FFN with residual stacks of hourglass sub-MLPs and use hourglass attention to decouple residual-stream width from attention width. This exposes a practical depth-width trade-off: compressing the FFN intermediate dimension allows wider hidden states and fewer layers at matched parameter budgets. Across model scales from 113M to 8B parameters, Hourglass Transformers achieve language-modeling and downstream performance comparable to conventional Transformers, while improving training compute efficiency by $8.7\%$ at matched average downstream accuracy across the 906M, 3B, and 8B scales. After long-context extension, the 8B Hourglass model also outperforms its matched conventional baseline across 4k-64k context lengths. At 64k context, the reduced attention layer count lowers both computation and KV-cache requirements, yielding up to $1.93\times$ faster token decoding and $50\%$ lower KV-cache memory at the 1B scale. These results identify hourglass structures as a practical architecture-efficiency alternative for compute- and latency-conscious Transformer design.

We show that nonequilibrium dynamics can play a constructive role in unsupervised machine learning by inducing the spontaneous emergence of latent-state cycles. We introduce a model in which visible and hidden variables interact through two independently parametrized transition matrices, defining a Markov chain whose steady state is intrinsically out of equilibrium. Likelihood maximization drives this system toward nonequilibrium steady states with finite entropy production, reduced self-transition probabilities, and persistent probability currents in the latent space. These cycles are not imposed by the architecture but arise from training, and models that develop them reproduce the empirical distribution of data classes more faithfully, with a clear correlation between agreement with the data and entropy production. Compared with equilibrium approaches such as restricted Boltzmann machines, our model breaks the detailed balance between the forward and backward conditional transitions and relies on a log-likelihood gradient that depends explicitly on the last two steps of the Markov chain. Hence, this exploration of the interface between nonequilibrium statistical physics and modern machine learning suggests that introducing irreversibility into latent-variable models can improve the fidelity of the generated data distribution.