Conformal Prediction

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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Period ending 2026-09-14

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Period ending 2026-09-07

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280 papers

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  1. Hierarchical Group-Conditional Conformal Risk Control for Selective Prediction in Language Models

    Jul 27, 2026Murilo Salem, Luísa Böhm, Daniel Pontes +1Conformal Risk Control

  2. Beyond Aggregate Risk: Role-Stratified Conformal Risk Control for LLM Tool Calls

    Jul 27, 2026Md Ashikur Rahman, Md Arifur Rahman, Niamul Hassan Samin +4Conformal Risk ControlLarge Language Model Safety

  3. Adaptive Multi-Scale Forecasting and Gate-Localized Conformal Prediction for Multivariate Nonstationary Time Series

    Jul 25, 2026Ziling Ma, Junshu Jiang, Ángel López-Oriona +2Conformal Prediction

  4. Robust Conformalized Selection with Noisy Responses

    Jul 25, 2026Chengyao Yu, Hongxin Wei, Bingyi JingFalse Discovery RateConformal Calibration

  5. Conformal Constraint Tightening for Chance-Constrained Motion Planning with Unknown Dynamics

    Jul 24, 2026Shubham Natraj, Bruno Sinopoli, Yiannis KantarosMotion PlannersPlanning Methods

  6. Predictive Lightweight MARL for Resilient Coverage in Sparse-Signaling Aerial Networks

    Jul 24, 2026Chuan-Chi Lai, Ang-Hsun TsaiUnmanned Aerial Vehicle SwarmsWireless Resource Allocation

  7. A Multi-Cohort Validation of Censoring-Aware Conformal Lower Predictive Bounds for Pathology Survival Models

    Jul 23, 2026Mingi HongSurvival PredictionsNon-Small Cell Lung Cancer

  8. Adaptive Bayesian Online Learning via Expert Aggregation

    Jul 22, 2026Jungbin Jun, Ilsang OhnLearning-Augmented AlgorithmsBayesian

  9. Safe Remediation as Risk-Constrained Intervention Decision in Microservice Systems

    Jul 22, 2026Chengxiao Dai, Zhaokun Yan, Chenjun Lei +2RemediationFault Injection Experiments

  10. On the Limits of Sampling-Based Reachability: Geometry, Dynamics, and Sample Complexity

    Jul 21, 2026Jixian Liu, Ihab Tabbara, Hussein Sibai +1ReachabilityHamilton-Jacobi Reachability

  11. The Label Complexity of Class-Conditional Coverage under Distribution Shift

    Jul 20, 2026Weijia Han, Lisha QuCandidate Label DistributionsFinite-Sample Coverage Guarantees

  12. Though Language Models Err While They Strive: Conformal Prediction for Self-Correcting Scientific Generation

    Jul 18, 2026Mingqiao Mo, Yunlong Tan, Hao ZhangScientific DiscoveryFacts

  13. Isotonic Conformal Prediction

    Jul 18, 2026Daniel Bensimon, Sean Xiang Yu, Eric D. Kolaczyk +1Conformal PredictionReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  14. Fixed-Protocol Amortized MPS Tomography with Conformalized Predictive Uncertainty

    Jul 13, 2026Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John Paisley +1N$-Qubit Stabilizer StatesDistributional Fidelity

  15. Manifold Constrained Conformal Prediction for Spatial Events

    Jul 10, 2026Collin Nill, Trevor Harris, Jason AdamsConformal PredictionPrecipitation

  16. Revisiting One-Zero and Two-Zero Neutrino Mass Textures in Light of Recent Oscillation and Cosmological Data

    Jul 9, 2026Haruto Kitagawa, Coh Miyao, Satsuki Nishimura +1Modern Collider ExperimentsCosmology

  17. ConRad: Efficient Conformal Prediction for Radiomics

    Jul 9, 2026Matt Y. Cheung, Ashok Veeraraghavan, Guha BalakrishnanRadiomicsConformal Prediction

  18. tsbootstrap: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification and Conformal Prediction for Time Series

    Jul 7, 2026Sankalp GildaMultiplier BootstrapConfidence Intervals

  19. A Quiet Failure in Calibrated Virtual Screening: Marginal Conformal Prediction Under-Covers the Minority Class, and a Class-Conditional Fix Recovers It

    Jul 7, 2026Muhammadjon Tursunbadalov, Mustafojon TursunbadalovConformal PredictionMinority

  20. Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction

    Jul 5, 2026Kianoosh Ashouritaklimi, Stefano Cortinovis, François CaronConformal PredictionNonconformity Scores

  21. CertMix: Certified, Data-Efficient Metamaterial Design by Affine Mixing of Aligned Neural-Implicit Weight Spaces

    Jul 5, 2026Yifan WangMetamaterialsOptimal Design

  22. Self-Improving Diffusion Classifiers with Minority Preference Optimization

    Jul 4, 2026Hyunsoo Kim, Jungmyung Wi, Soobin Um +2Discrete Diffusion ModelMinority

  23. Denoised Conformal Alignment for Reliable Selection of Conditional Average Treatment Effect Predictions

    Jul 3, 2026Xinyun Lu, Haoang Chi, Zhiheng ZhangHeterogeneous Treatment EffectsConformal Calibration

  24. Weighted Conformal Prediction for Lab-to-Track Thermal Transfer in EV Motorsport Powertrains

    Jul 2, 2026Varshith Roy KotlaConformal PredictionStochastic Volatility

  25. Prediction Sets for Counterfactual Decisions: Coverage, Optimality, and Conformal Prediction

    Jul 2, 2026Yurui Zheng, Ying JinConformal PredictionCounterfactual Reasoning

  26. Predictive Conformal Slip Monitoring: An Empirical Evaluation of Rolling Split Conformal Prediction for Pre-Incident Traction Loss Detection

    Jul 2, 2026Varshith Roy KotlaConformal PredictionAutonomous Racing

  27. From Prediction Uncertainty to Conformalized Distance Fields for Safe Motion Planning

    Jul 1, 2026Jaeuk Shin, Yoonseok Ra, Insoon YangMotion PlannersConformal Prediction

  28. Robust Operational Space Control with Conformal Disturbance Bounds for Safe Redundant Manipulation

    Jul 1, 2026Wenhua Liu, Fan Zhang, Qin LinRobotic ArmsAdaptive Controller

  29. Accelerating Conformal Prediction via Approximate Leave-One-Out

    Jun 30, 2026Jiachen Cong, Jingbo LiuConformal PredictionFinite-Sample Coverage Guarantees

  30. Relational and Sequential Conformal Inference for Energy Time Series over Graphs via Foundation Models

    Jun 30, 2026Keivan Faghih Niresi, Alice Cicirello, Olga FinkTemporal Graph Neural NetworksElectricity Price Forecasting

  31. On Optimal Data Splitting for Split Conformal Prediction

    Jun 30, 2026Sayan Das, Bahram Yaghooti, Todd A. Kuffner +1Conformal PredictionFinite-Sample Coverage Guarantees

  32. Localized Conformal Prediction for Image Classification with Vision-Language Models

    Jun 30, 2026Clément Fuchs, Tim Bary, Benoît MacqConformal PredictionImage Classification

  33. Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence

    Jun 29, 2026Andreas Koukorinis, Ricardo SilvaCausal InferencesConformal Inference

  34. Coordinate Singularities Break Conformal Coverage for Gaze and Head Pose

    Jun 29, 2026Mohammadreza Jamalifard, Yaxiong Lei, Parastoo Azizinezhad +1Conformal PredictionGaze

  35. Self-Organized Conformal Prediction: Reducing Regional Coverage Gaps with Unsupervised Group Discovery

    Jun 28, 2026Louis Berthier, Ahmed Shokry, Maxime Moreaud +2Conformal PredictionMulticalibration and Calibration

  36. When Can Conformal Risk Control Certify LLM Outputs? Bounds, Impossibility, and Adaptation for Structured Generation

    Jun 27, 2026Varun KotteConformal Risk ControlLarge Language Model Safety

  37. Conformal Prediction with Macro-Coverage Guarantees

    Jun 26, 2026Aabesh Bhattacharyya, Tiffany Ding, Rina Foygel BarberConformal PredictionFinite-Sample Coverage Guarantees

  38. Uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction in data assimilation

    Jun 25, 2026Catherine George, Alireza Javanmardi, Tijana Janjić +1Conformal PredictionData Assimilation

  39. Two-dimensional Hyperbolic RNN Neural Quantum State

    Jun 24, 2026H. L. DaoQuantum Neural NetworksTwo-Dimensional Ising Model

  40. Adaptive Machine Learning Framework for UAV Trajectory Optimization in O-RAN

    Jun 23, 2026Chenrui Sun, Swarna Bindu Chetty, Gianluca Fontanesi +3Unmanned Aerial Vehicle TrajectoriesOpen Radio Access Networks

  41. Reliable Conformal Prediction for Ordinal Classification Using the Ranked Probability Score

    Jun 23, 2026Stefan Haas, Luca Killmaier, Alireza Javanmardi +1Nonconformity ScoresConformal Prediction

  42. Conformal Orbit-Valid Trust Horizons for Equivariant World Models

    Jun 23, 2026Hongbo WangHorizonLatent World Models

  43. Learning-Augmented Algorithms for Online Vertex Cover

    Jun 22, 2026Tianhang Lu, Runtian Ren, Shengcai LiuLearning-Augmented AlgorithmsMaximum Independent Set

  44. Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores

    Jun 21, 2026Seungjin ChoiNonconformity ScoresConformal Calibration

  45. SCOPE: Sequential Conformal Probing for Reliable OOD Rejection in LLM Services

    Jun 19, 2026Zhuoyun Li, Boxuan Wang, Changshun Wu +2Out-Of-Distribution DetectionOut-Of-Distribution

  46. When Calibration Fails the Vulnerable Hospital: Federated Conformal Risk Control via Risk-Curve Shrinkage

    Jun 18, 2026Nafis Fuad ShahidConformal Risk ControlBrain Tumor Classification

  47. DeXposure-Claw: An Agentic System for DeFi Risk Supervision

    Jun 17, 2026Aijie Shu, Bowei Chen, Wenbin Wu +2Decentralized FinanceCredit Risk Prediction

  48. ToolChain-CRC: Conformal Risk Control for Agentic AI Under Retrieval and Tool-Use Drift

    Jun 16, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneMulti-Turn Tool-Use AgentConformal Risk Control

  49. Filtered Conformal Ellipsoids for Graph-Native Time Series

    Jun 15, 2026Yannick LimmerConformal PredictionParticle Filters

  50. Look Again Before You Abstain:Budgeted Conformal Evidence Acquisition for Reliable Vision-Language Model

    Jun 15, 2026Jian Xu, Delu Zeng, John Paisley +1Large Vision Language ModelsVisual Evidence

  51. Simulation-Augmented Multi-Step Split Conformal Prediction for Aggregated Forecasts

    Jun 15, 2026Andro SabashviliConformal PredictionLoad Forecasting

  52. PromptShift-CRC: Drift-Aware Conformal Risk Control for Foundation Models Under Prompt and Domain Shift

    Jun 14, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneConformal Risk ControlWireless Foundation Models

  53. Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data

    Jun 14, 2026Jeffery Opoku, David BanaheneConformal PredictionQuantile Regression

  54. Multi-Agent Framework for Audit Risk Assessment with Explicit Uncertainty and Evidence Conflict Modeling

    Jun 14, 2026Yuhan Wang, Manqing Wang, Yixuan Lu +2Algorithm AuditingConformal Risk Control

  55. Conformal Candidate Certification for Offline Model-Based Optimization

    Jun 13, 2026Seungjin ChoiConformal CalibrationConformal Prediction

  56. Audited Conformal Prediction for Classification under Unknown Distribution Shift

    Jun 12, 2026Yanfei Zhou, Rizal Fathony, Nam H. Nguyen +1Conformal PredictionDistribution Shifts

  57. Conformal calibration and look-elsewhere effect in anomaly detection for new-physics searches

    Jun 11, 2026Jack Y. Araz, Michael SpannowskyAnomaly ScoreHigh Energy Physics

  58. From Uncertain Judgments to Calibrated Rankings: Conformal Elo Estimation for LLM Evaluation

    Jun 11, 2026Bora Kargi, David SalinasLarge Language Model EvaluationJudges

  59. Policy-driven Conformal Prediction for Trustworthy QoT Estimation

    Jun 10, 2026Kiarash Rezaei, Omran Ayoub, Paolo Monti +1Conformal PredictionConformal Calibration

  60. Online Shift Detection and Conformal Adaptation for Deployed Safety Classifiers

    Jun 10, 2026Jun Wen LeongDistribution ShiftsAttack Detection