Counterfactuals

Ascription of an image gives insights into the objects that influence the classification of the whole image or its pixels towards a specific category. These insights help radiologists to visualize deformities in medical imaging. Most of the existing visualization techniques are based on discriminative models and highlight regions of the input image participating in the decision-making of a classifier. However, these approaches do not take all noticeable objects into account as their objective is to classify the input by using a minimal set of discriminative features. To overcome the issue, a counterfactual explanation (CX) based class-oriented feature attribution method is proposed. A counterfactual explanation (CX) explicates a causal reasoning process of the form: "if X had not happened, then Y would not have happened". The method is built on generative adversarial networks (GANs) with a cyclical-consistent loss function. We evaluate our method on three datasets: synthetic, tuberculosis and BraTS. All experiments confirm the efficacy of the proposed method. This study also highlighted the limitations of existing counterfactual explanation techniques in producing plausible counterfactual instances (CIs). Accompanying CXs with believable CIs thus provides self-explanatory analogy-based explanations. To this end, a CI generation method is proposed. Also, a novel technique is used to evaluate the quality of CI. The baseline results are produced on the BraTS dataset.

Open-vocabulary human-object interaction (HOI) detection requires recognizing interaction phrases that may not appear as annotated categories during training. Recent vision-language HOI detectors improve semantic transfer by matching human-object features with text embeddings, but their predictions are often dominated by object affordance and phrase-level co-occurrence. As a result, a model may predict \textit{cut cake} from the presence of a knife and a cake without verifying whether the hand, tool, target, contact pattern, and object state jointly support the action. We propose \textbf{ScriptHOI}, a structured framework that represents each interaction phrase as a soft scripted state transition. Rather than treating a phrase as a single class token, ScriptHOI decomposes it into body-role, contact, geometry, affordance, motion, and object-state slots. A visual state tokenizer parses each detected human-object pair into corresponding state tokens, and a slot-wise matcher estimates both script coverage and script conflict. These two quantities calibrate HOI logits, expose missing visual evidence, and provide training constraints for incomplete annotations. To avoid suppressing valid but unannotated interactions, we further introduce interval partial-label learning, which constrains unannotated candidates with script-derived lower and upper probability bounds instead of assigning closed-world negatives. A counterfactual script contrast loss swaps individual script slots to discourage object-only shortcuts. Experiments on HICO-DET, V-COCO, and open-vocabulary HOI splits show that ScriptHOI improves rare and unseen interaction recognition while substantially reducing affordance-conflict false positives.

When a machine learning (ML) model forecasts an undesired event, one often seeks a decision to avoid it, known as the avoiding undesired future (AUF) problem. Many rehearsal learning methods have been proposed for AUF, but they rely on an underlying graph structure; learning such a graph from observational data is challenging and can incur substantial estimation error. In this work, we demonstrate that the order structure can be sufficient for AUF decision-making, and propose the first order-based rehearsal learning method. Although an order is less informative than a graph, it can be sufficient to identify the influence of decisions from observational data, suggesting that learning the entire graph is not always necessary. To learn the order, we develop an information-theoretic method that imposes no restrictions on the form of structural functions or the type of noise distributions. For AUF decision-making, we construct an order-based sampler to approximate the influence of decisions and, combined with a surrogate objective for maximizing the post-decision success probability, reduce the AUF task to a differentiable optimization problem. Experiments show that our order learning method outperforms existing methods, and that our AUF approach not only surpasses methods relying on learned graphs or learned orders, but also matches or even exceeds oracle baselines that are given the true graph.

This paper presents NoisyCoconut, a novel inference-time method that enhances large language model (LLM) reliability by manipulating internal representations. Unlike fine-tuning methods that require extensive retraining, NoisyCoconut operates directly on model representations during inference and requires no retraining. Rather than training models to reason in latent space, we inject controlled noise into latent trajectories to generate diverse reasoning paths. Agreement among these paths provides a confidence signal, enabling models to abstain when uncertain. We demonstrate that this approach achieves effective coverage-accuracy tradeoffs across multiple reasoning benchmarks without requiring access to training data or modification of model parameters. This approach provides a practical pathway to improving the reliability of LLM outputs while maintaining compatibility with existing models. Our experiments show that unanimous agreement among noise-perturbed paths reduces error rates from 40-70% to below 15%, enabling models to exceed 95% accuracy on mathematical reasoning tasks through selective abstention.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) offers a promising approach for data-efficient energy management in buildings, combining the strengths of predictive modeling and reinforcement learning. While previous MBRL methods applied to HVAC control have reduced training data requirements, they still require several months of interaction with the building to learn a satisfactory control policy. A key reason is that existing surrogate models attempt to predict the entire state-space, including weather and electricity prices that are unaffected by control actions, or completely ignore these variables. Addressing these issues, we propose Counter-Dyna, a method that enhances the data-efficiency of Dyna, an MBRL method. We create data-efficient counterfactual surrogate models (CSM) by leveraging invariances in the state-space. Using a CSM in Dyna speeds up RL training measured in environment interaction data compared to previous results. In comparison with previous state-of-the-art that used 6-12 months of environment interactions, our method needs only 5 weeks. We evaluate our method in a large simulation study using the literature standard BOPTEST framework and proximal policy algorithm (PPO) as the RL algorithm. Our results show cost-saving potentials of 5.3% to 17.0% in a hypothetical deployment scenario. Our work is a significant step towards making real-world deployment of RL algorithms in HVAC control practically viable.

Existing prompt learning for VLMs exhibits a modality asymmetry, predominantly optimizing text tokens while still relying on frozen visual encoder as holistic extractor and neglecting the spectral granularity essential for fine-grained discrimination. To bridge this, we introduce Disentangling Spectral Granularity for Prompt Learning (SpecPL), which approaches prompt learning from a novel spectral perspective via Counterfactual Granule Supervision. Specifically, we leverage a frozen VAE to decompose visual signals into semantic low-frequency bands and granular high-frequency details. A frozen Visual Semantic Bank anchors text representations to universal low-frequency invariants, mitigating overfitting. Crucially, fine-grained discrimination is driven by counterfactual granule training: by permuting high-frequency signals, we compel the model to explicitly distinguish visual granularity from semantic invariance. Uniquely, SpecPL serves as a universal plug-and-play booster, revitalizing text-oriented baselines like CoOp and MaPLe via visual-side guidance. Experiments on 11 benchmarks demonstrate competitive state-of-the-art performance, achieving a new performance ceiling of 81.51% harmonic-mean accuracy. These results validate that spectral disentanglement with counterfactual supervision effectively bridges the gap in the stability-generalization trade-off. Code is released at https://github.com/Mlrac1e/SpecPL-Prompt-Learning.

Open-loop imitation learning has advanced modern autonomous driving policy architectures, but closed-loop deployment remains vulnerable to policy-induced distribution shift. Existing post-training paradigms exhibit fundamental trade-offs: closed-loop RL fine-tuning provides grounded feedback from executed actions but is constrained by the sparsity of informative events, whereas counterfactual fine-tuning provides dense supervision over candidate futures but inherits bias from imperfect future estimates. We introduce Counterfactual-to-Interactive Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (CRAFT), an on-policy framework that formulates closed-loop post-training as proxy-residual optimization. CRAFT uses group-normalized counterfactual advantages as a dense proxy for real closed-loop advantages and aligns this proxy with the closed-loop world through grounded residual correction from interaction-critical events. To stabilize adaptation, CRAFT regularizes the online policy toward an EMA teacher via asymmetric KL self-distillation. Theoretically, CRAFT decomposes the real closed-loop policy gradient into proxy and residual terms under the same visited-state distribution, reducing residual variance with an aligned proxy while mitigating proxy bias through grounded residual approximation. Empirically, CRAFT achieves the strongest closed-loop gains on Bench2Drive across hierarchical planning, vision-language-action, and vocabulary-scoring architectures. Ablations, scaling behavior, stability analyses, and transfer results further validate the complementary roles of dense counterfactual proxy and grounded residual correction. Project page: https://currychen77.github.io/CRAFT.

Transportation surveys are widely used to understand travel preferences and adoption barriers, yet most survey-based analyses remain descriptive or predictive and rarely provide sparse, policy-feasible intervention strategies. We study sparse counterfactual community intervention from survey responses, where the goal is to shift a target respondent group toward a desired reference group through controllable survey-variable adjustments. We formulate this task as a policy-feasible distributional alignment problem using a fixed-basis nonnegative latent representation that preserves pre/post comparability and provides a stable map from latent factors to original variables. To make latent movement actionable, target-relevant latent factors are identified through Shapley-guided attribution and transferred to controllable variables as intervention priorities. Feasible group-level adjustments are then learned by minimizing an entropy-regularized optimal-transport discrepancy between the post-intervention target distribution and the reference distribution, together with a weighted $\ell_{2,1}$ penalty that promotes shared policy-lever sparsity. Experiments on real-world transportation survey datasets show that the proposed framework produces compact and interpretable policy-feasible interventions with explicit adjustment magnitudes, improves population-level conversion, and preserves intervention sparsity. Code and datasets are publicly available at: https://github.com/pangjunbiao/latent-group-alignment.git

Structural causal models provide a unified semantics for interventions and counterfactuals, but most identifiability results rely on restrictive assumptions like global monotonicity, which are often violated in embodied interaction, where the same exogenous perturbation can induce opposite responses under different contact contexts. We ask what structure still suffices once global monotonicity is dropped. We introduce non-monotone triangular structural causal models (NM-TM-SCM), which retain triangular recursion but replace global monotonicity with mechanism-wise invertibility and context-independent inverse transport. We prove that these conditions are equivalent to exogenous isomorphism and imply complete counterfactual identifiability, and we give a counterexample showing that local invertibility alone is insufficient. We instantiate the theory in CausalInverter, with triangular invertible layers, orientation gates, and transport-stability regularization. On synthetic non-monotonic mechanisms, the structural bias yields systematic counterfactual gains as non-monotonicity increases. On MuJoCo Door, our model achieves perfect event-level counterfactual recovery, lowers continuous angle error relative to a Transformer baseline, and delivers substantially more stable recovery than Transformer and conditional-flow predictors. On MuJoCo Push, where non-monotonicity is weaker, the same low-data predictors remain competitive or better, consistent with a bias-variance boundary. These results identify a broader identifiable regime between globally monotone triangular models and unconstrained black-box world models.

Emergency department triage assigns patients an acuity score that determines treatment priority, and clinical evidence documents persistent gender disparities in human acuity assessment. As hospitals pilot large language models (LLMs) as triage decision support, a critical question is whether these models reproduce or mitigate known biases. We present EQUITRIAGE, a fairness audit of LLM-based ESI assignment evaluating five models (Gemini-3-Flash, Nemotron-3-Super, DeepSeek-V3.1, Mistral-Small-3.2, GPT-4.1-Nano) across 374,275 evaluations on 18,714 MIMIC-IV-ED vignettes under four prompt strategies. Of 9,368 originals, 9,346 are paired with a gender-swapped counterfactual. All five models produced flip rates above a pre-registered 5% threshold (9.9% to 43.8%). Two showed directional female undertriage (DeepSeek F/M 2.15:1, Gemini 1.34:1); two were near-parity; one had high sensitivity with weak male-direction asymmetry. DeepSeek's directional bias coexisted with a low outcome-linked calibration gap (0.013 against MIMIC-IV admission), a Chouldechova-style dissociation between within-group calibration and between-pair counterfactual invariance. Demographic blinding reduced Gemini's flip rate to 0.5%; an age-preserving blind variant left DeepSeek with residual F/M 1.25, implicating age as a residual channel. Chain-of-thought prompting degraded accuracy for all five models. A two-model ablation reveals opposite underlying mechanisms for the same directional phenotype: in Gemini the signal is emergent in the combined name+gender swap, while in DeepSeek the gender token alone carries it. EQUITRIAGE shows that group parity, counterfactual invariance, and gender calibration are distinct fairness properties, that intervention effectiveness is model-dependent, and that per-model counterfactual auditing should precede clinical deployment.

Open-vocabulary object detection often fails under distribution shifts, as it can be misled by spurious correlations between non-causal visual attributes (e.g., brightness, texture) and object categories. Existing test-time adaptation (TTA) methods either depend on costly online optimization or perform global calibration, overlooking the attribute-specific nature of these failures. To address this, we propose FACTOR (counterFACtual training-free Test-time adaptation for Open-vocabulaRy object detection), a lightweight framework grounded in counterfactual reasoning. By perturbing test images along non-causal attributes and comparing region-level predictions between original and counterfactual views, FACTOR quantifies attribute sensitivity, semantic relevance, and prediction variation to selectively suppress attribute-dependent predictions-without parameter updates. Experiments on PASCAL-C, COCO-C, and FoggyCityscapes show that FACTOR consistently outperforms prior TTA methods, demonstrating that explicit counterfactual reasoning effectively improves robustness under distribution shifts.

Automated planning traditionally assumes that all aspects of a planning task (initial state, goals, and available actions) are fully specified in advance, an approach well-suited to domains with fixed rules and deterministic execution. However, real-world planning often requires flexibility, allowing for deviations from the original task parameters in response to unforeseen circumstances or to improve outcomes. This paper surveys existing works on counterfactual reasoning in automated planning, categorizing them by what elements are changed, when the reasoning is triggered, and why and how these changes are made. We conclude by discussing key findings and outlining open research questions to guide future work in this area.

Stories hold a reader's attention because they have causes, secrets, and consequences. Shadow-Loom is an experimental open-source framework that turns a narrative into a versioned graphical world model and lets two engines act on it: a causal physics grounded in Pearl's ladder of causation and a recently proposed counterfactual calculus over Ancestral Multi-World Networks; and a narrative physics that scores the same graph against four structural reader-states -- mystery, dramatic irony, suspense, and surprise -- in the tradition of Sternberg's curiosity/suspense/surprise triad, with suspense formalised in the structural-affect line of work on story comprehension and computational suspense. Large language models are used only at the boundary: extraction, rendering, and audit; identification, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning are carried out in typed code over the graph. The system is offered as a research artefact rather than as a benchmarked NLP model; code, fixtures, and pipeline are released open source.

Software engineering increasingly involves making high-stakes decisions under uncertainty, using signals from code, field data, and socio-technical processes. Recent AI-driven support (e.g., anomaly detection, predictive analytics, AIOps, as well as LLM-based agents) has amplified engineers' ability to detect patterns and synthesize content and recommendations, but many critical questions are interventional or counterfactual: What is the expected impact of changing a load-balancing strategy? Would an outage have been avoided under a different release plan? Correlational models answer "what tends to co-occur"; they struggle to answer "what would happen if we act." We propose Causal Software Engineering (CSE) as a future paradigm in which causal models and causal reasoning systematically inform activities across the software lifecycle, augmenting existing practices with explicit assumptions, uncertainty-aware effect estimates, and counterfactual diagnosis. We outline (i) a causal-first workflow view spanning development and operations, (ii) a staged roadmap for tools and organizational adoption, and (iii) an evaluation and benchmark agenda for measuring progress.

Process reward models (PRMs) require supervision that identifies not only whether a reasoning trajectory is correct, but also where the reasoning process first becomes unsupported by its prefix. We frame this requirement as verifiable counterfactual process supervision with paired correct and erroneous trajectories in which the first invalid transition is known, the error mechanism is controlled, and the downstream continuation remains coherent under the corrupted state. Starting from a verified symbolic reasoning chain, our method injects a template-aware error at a selected intermediate step, recomputes all subsequent steps under the corrupted state, and verifies that the injected step is not derivable from its original prefix. The resulting trajectories provide prefix-valid first-error annotations and are translated into aligned natural-language processes for PRM training and evaluation. Experiments show that the synthesized data improve Best-of-8 reranking on logical reasoning benchmarks and show preliminary transfer to mathematical process evaluation.

Pearl's causal hierarchy shows that observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries are qualitatively distinct. We ask a quantitative version of this question: how many additional bits are needed to specify higher-rung causal answers once lower-rung answers are known? We formalize this via query-class description length, the Kolmogorov complexity of the answer oracle induced by an SCM for a class of queries. Our main construction gives binary acyclic SCMs whose observational distribution has constant description length, while the single-variable interventional answer oracle has description length $Θ(n^2)$. A degree-sensitive upper bound shows that finite-gate-schema SCMs of indegree $d$ have observational-interventional gap at most $O(nd \log(en/d) + n \log n)$, making the quadratic construction order-optimal in the dense regime and a rooted-tree construction order-optimal for bounded indegree. The quadratic separation persists under $\varepsilon$-accurate total-variation descriptions for every fixed $\varepsilon < 1/4$. At the next rung, the full hard-do interventional oracle can still leave a $Θ(n)$ counterfactual description gap. A general ambiguity-to-bits theorem and Shannon analogue show that these gaps equal the logarithm of residual higher-rung ambiguity up to lower-order terms.

Self-supervised learning methods learn high-quality visual representations, yet recent studies show that these representations often capture demographic biases present in the training data. Existing fairness-aware methods address this by redesigning the self-supervised objective itself, limiting portability across the rapidly evolving landscape of self-supervised learning (SSL) frameworks. We propose ProtoFair, a fairness-aware contrastive loss designed to work alongside existing SSL objectives without modifying them. ProtoFair leverages unsupervised prototype clustering to identify pseudo-counterfactual pairs: samples sharing the same cluster assignment but belonging to different sensitive groups. By pulling these content-matched, cross-group samples together in the embedding space, ProtoFair encourages the encoder to learn representations that are invariant to the sensitive attribute. The method requires only sensitive attribute annotations, no target labels, and integrates seamlessly with both SimCLR and SupCon. Experiments on CelebA and UTKFace demonstrate consistent fairness improvements while maintaining competitive accuracy.

A world model matters to an agent only through the state it constructs. That state must preserve some information, discard other information, and support some future function: prediction, control, planning, memory, grounding, or counterfactual reasoning. This paper treats world-model research as latent state design under sufficiency constraints. We propose a functional taxonomy that groups methods by what their latent state is for, rather than by architecture or application domain: predictive embedding, recurrent belief state, object/causal structure, latent action interface, grounded planning interface, and memory substrate. These roles expose distinctions that architecture-based groupings hide, including the gap between predictive sufficiency and control sufficiency, and the gap between passive video prediction and counterfactual action modeling. The taxonomy supports an evaluation framework that judges a model by the sufficiency constraint its latent state was built to satisfy. We compare methods along seven axes: representation, prediction, planning, controllability, causal/counterfactual support, memory, and uncertainty. We use the resulting matrix as a diagnostic for what a latent state preserves, discards, and enables. The conclusion that follows is that an actionable world model is the one whose state construction matches the task, not the one that preserves the most information.

There has been a growing interest in explaining entailments over description logic (DL) knowledge bases. The existing explanation formalisms focus on justifications to explain true axioms, and abductive reasoning to explain missing axioms in a knowledge base. However, these formalisms only point out the reasoning steps behind a (missing) entailment and lack a user-centered approach as they do not consider an inquirer's needs, level of understanding, or prior knowledge. We propose contrastive explanations, aiming at answering "why an axiom P (fact) is true instead of another axiom Q (foil)" over description logic knowledge bases. The motivation arises from the observation that when a user discovers that P has occurred, they are often surprised because they anticipated the occurrence of another similar event Q. Furthermore, individual explanations for "why P" and "why not Q" are unsatisfactory since a user expects to see the difference between P and Q. In this work, we first present formal foundations of contrasting questions and then define contrastive explanations within description logics. To this end, facts include ABox assertions of the form C(x) for a concept C and individual x. Possible foils for such facts are assertions C(y) (contrasting against an individual y), or D(x) (contrasting against a concept D). Additionally, we explore the properties of contrastive explanations in the DL EL and ALC. We also provide an implementation of our definition and an experimental evaluation on KBs of varying sizes.

The dominant noun-based modeling paradigm, grounded in probability theory and committed to pre-specified noun entities as primitive modeling units, is insufficient as a \emph{grammar of thought}: It leaves \emph{timing} outside the computational scope, precluding any adequate representation of the future as an open space of possibilities. This paper addresses three conceptual gaps absent from the existing literature: (1) possibility space -- a framework admitting multiple possible timelines for the same event; (2) timing computation -- the treatment of timing as a computable rather than observed dimension; and (3) causal factum -- the maximal causal efficacy recovered by reasoning backward from possible futures, rather than assumed in advance. Together, these definitions dissolve the confounding problem inherent to noun-based causal inference and provide the foundation for a spontaneously growing causal-reasoning world model. As proof of concept, we instantiate the framework and apply it to longitudinal EHR data from 3,276 breast cancer patients, demonstrating for the first time, to our knowledge, automatic trajectory discovery and counterfactual timing deduction (i.e., a What-If Machine) in a purely data-driven manner.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

The growing reliance of machine learning models in high-stakes, highly regulated domains such as finance and insurance has created a growing tension between predictive performance, interpretability, and regulatory fairness requirements. In these settings, models are expected not only to deliver reliable predictions but also to provide transparent decision rationales and comply with strict fairness requirements. Attention-based transformers offer powerful mechanisms for modeling complex data relationships as demonstrated in various language tasks, yet their attention mechanisms alone do not ensure counterfactually fair predictions, even when combined with fairness-aware techniques. To address these limitations, we propose the Feature Correlation Transformer (FCorrTransformer), an attention-light architecture tailored for tabular data. In this design, the attention matrix admits a direct statistical interpretation as pairwise feature dependencies, enhancing both interpretability and efficiency. Leveraging this structure, we introduce Counterfactual Attention Regularization (CAR), a framework that enforces group-invariant fair representations of sensitive features at the attention level, promoting counterfactually fair predictions without relying on explicit causal assumptions. Empirical evaluations on imbalanced classification and regression benchmarks demonstrate that FCorrTransformer combined with CAR achieves strong counterfactual fairness while maintaining competitive predictive performance and substantially reducing model complexity compared with standard transformer-based baselines. Overall, this work bridges a critical gap between fairness theory and machine learning models, offering a practical framework for responsible AI in regulatory-sensitive domains.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) models frequently produce answers grounded in parametric memory rather than the retrieved context, undermining the core promise of retrieval augmentation. A fundamental obstacle to fixing this unfaithfulness is the lack of training data that explicitly requires models to prefer context over internal knowledge. We introduce Faithfulness-QA, a large-scale dataset of 99,094 samples constructed through counterfactual entity substitution. Starting from two established extractive QA benchmarks--SQuAD and TriviaQA--we automatically identify answer-bearing named entities in each context, replace them with type-consistent alternatives drawn from a curated bank of 76,953 entities, and thereby manufacture controlled knowledge conflicts between context and parametric memory. Rigorous quality filtering ensures 100% pass rates across four automated checks on random 200-sample audits. We release the full dataset, the construction pipeline, and a typed entity bank covering eight named entity categories. Faithfulness-QA is designed as a training resource for attention-based faithfulness objectives and as an evaluation benchmark for measuring context-grounding behavior in RAG systems. Data and code are available at https://github.com/qzhangFDU/faithfulness-qa-dataset.

Fast Adversarial Training (FAT) has attracted significant attention due to its efficiency in enhancing neural network robustness against adversarial attacks. However, FAT is prone to catastrophic overfitting (CO), wherein models overfit to the specific attack used during training and fail to generalize to others. While existing methods introduce diverse hypotheses and propose various strategies to mitigate CO, a systematic and intuitive explanation of CO remains absent. In this work, we innovatively interpret CO through the lens of backdoor. Through validations on pathway division, diverse feature predictions, and universal class distinguishable triggers in CO, we conceptualize CO as a weak trigger variant of unlearnable tasks, unifying CO, backdoor attacks, and unlearnable tasks under a common theoretical framework. Guided by this, we leverage several backdoor inspired strategies to mitigate CO: (i) Recalibrate CO affected model parameters using vanilla fine tuning, linear probing, or reinitialization-based techniques; (ii) Introduce a weight outlier suppression constraint to regulate abnormal deviations in model weights. Extensive experiments support our interpretation of CO and show the efficacy of the proposed mitigation strategies.

Single-arm trials accelerate study timelines by reducing the number of patients that must be recruited for a concurrent control group. However, these designs require an alternative comparator to estimate treatment effects. One approach is to construct a virtual control arm using a machine learning (ML) model trained on external control data to predict the counterfactual outcomes of the treatment arm. Our aim in this study was to leverage virtual controls by developing and evaluating ML-based counterfactual outcome models trained on IFX-treated patients to predict 1-year steroid-free clinical remission (SFCR ) and a composite of C-reactive protein remission plus steroid-free clinical remission (CRP-SFCR) for ADA-treated pediatric Crohn's disease patients, and to compare the resulting IFX-versus-ADA treatment effect estimates with those obtained using propensity score matching to external controls. Five ML models were used to train counterfactual models on the observed IFX cohort data. The resulting models were used to predict the counterfactual outcomes for the ADA arm patients. LGBM yields the best OR closest to the propensity score matched reference, and all 95% CI results align with the conclusion from the reference study that no statistical difference in the primary and secondary outcomes has been observed between the patients treated with ADA or IFX. Our study supports virtual controls as a viable and effective substitute for expensive, lengthy or unethical patient recruitment in an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) trial. The developed gradient boosted prediction model can be used as a pretrained model to generate IFX counterfactual predictions in future studies, pending external validation and assessment of transportability.

Predicting the outcomes of prospective clinical trials remains a major challenge for large language models. Prior work has shown that both traditional correlational predictors, such as random forests and logistic regression, and strong commercial LLMs achieve limited performance on this task. In this paper, we propose DeepImagine, a framework for teaching LLMs biomedical reasoning through successive counterfactual imagining. The central idea is to approximate hidden causal mechanisms of clinical trials by training models to infer how observed trial results would change under controlled perturbations of experimental conditions, such as dosage, outcome measures, study arms, geography, and other trial attributes. To support this objective, we construct both natural and approximate counterfactual pairs from real clinical trials with reported outcomes. For settings where strict counterfactual supervision is available, such as paired outcome measures or dose-ranging study arms within the same trial, we train models with supervised fine-tuning. For broader settings where only approximate counterfactual pairs can be retrieved, we optimize models with reinforcement learning using verifiable rewards based on downstream benchmark correctness. We further augment training with synthetic reasoning traces that provide causally plausible explanations for local counterfactual transitions. Using this pipeline, we train language models under 10B parameters, including Qwen3.5-9B, and evaluate them on clinical trial outcome prediction. We aim to show that DeepImagine consistently improves over untuned language models and traditional correlational baselines. Finally, we aim to show that the learned reasoning trajectories provide interpretable signals about how models represent trial-level mechanisms, suggesting a practical path toward more mechanistic and scientifically useful biomedical language models.

Most tabular-data generators match marginal statistics yet ignore causal structure, leading downstream models to learn spurious or unfair patterns. We present TabSCM, a mixed-type generator that preserves those causal dependencies. Starting from a Completed Partially Directed Acyclic Graph (CPDAG) found by any causal structure discovery algorithm, TabSCM (i) orients edges to a DAG, (ii) fits root-node marginals with KDE or categorical frequencies, and (iii) learns topologically ordered structural assignments. Such assignments are achieved using conditional diffusion models for continuous variables as child nodes and gradient-boosted trees for categorical ones. Ancestral sampling yields semantically valid records and enables exact counterfactual queries. On seven public datasets, encompassing healthcare, finance, housing, environment, TabSCM matches or surpasses state-of-the-art GAN, diffusion, and LLM baselines in statistical fidelity, downstream utility, and privacy risk, while also cutting rule-violation rates and providing causally meaningful and robust conditional interventions. Because generation is decomposed into explicit equations, it runs up to 583$\times$ faster than diffusion-only models and exposes interpretable knobs for fairness auditing and policy simulation, making TabSCM a practical choice for realism, explainability, and causal soundness.

Open-vocabulary scene graph generation (SGG) aims to describe visual scenes with flexible and fine-grained relation phrases beyond a fixed predicate vocabulary. While recent vision-language models greatly expand the semantic coverage of SGG, they also introduce a critical reliability issue: predicted relations may be driven by language priors or object co-occurrence rather than grounded visual evidence. In this paper, we propose an evidence-rounded open-vocabulary SGG framework based on counterfactual relation verification. Instead of directly accepting plausible relation proposals, our method verifies whether each candidate relation is supported by relation-pecific visual, geometric, and contextual evidence. Specifically, we first generate open-vocabulary relation candidates with a vision-language proposer, then decompose predicate phrases into soft evidence bases such as support, contact, containment, depth and state. A relation-conditioned evidence encoder extracts predicate-relevant cues, while a counterfactual verifier tests whether the relation score decreases when necessary vidence is removed and remains stable under irrelevant perturbations. We further introduce contradiction-aware predicate learning and graph-level preference optimization to improve fine-grained discrimination and global graph consistency. Experiments on conventional, open-vocabulary, and panoptic SGG benchmarks show that our method consistently improves standard recall-based metrics, unseen predicate generalization, and counterfactual grounding quality. These results demonstrate that moving from relation generation to relation verification leads to more reliable, interpretable, and evidence-grounded scene graphs.

Fair machine learning (ML) methods help identify and mitigate the risk that algorithms encode or automate social injustices. Algorithmic approaches alone cannot resolve structural inequalities, but they can support socio-technical decision systems by surfacing discriminatory biases, clarifying trade-offs, and enabling governance. Although fairness is well studied in supervised learning, many real ML applications are online and sequential, with prior decisions informing future ones. Each decision is taken under uncertainty due to unobserved counterfactuals and finite samples, with dire consequences for under-represented groups, systematically under-observed due to historical exclusion and selective feedback. A bank cannot know whether a denied loan would have been repaid, and may have less data on marginalized populations. This paper introduces a taxonomy of uncertainty in sequential decision-making -- model, feedback, and prediction uncertainty -- providing shared vocabulary for assessing systems where uncertainty is unevenly distributed across groups. We formalize model and feedback uncertainty via counterfactual logic and reinforcement learning, and illustrate harms to decision makers (unrealized gains/losses) and subjects (compounding exclusion, reduced access) of policies that ignore the unobserved space. Algorithmic examples show it is possible to reduce outcome variance for disadvantaged groups while preserving institutional objectives (e.g. expected utility). Experiments on data simulated with varying bias show how unequal uncertainty and selective feedback produce disparities, and how uncertainty-aware exploration alters fairness metrics. The framework equips practitioners to diagnose, audit, and govern fairness risks. Where uncertainty drives unfairness rather than incidental noise, accounting for it is essential to fair and effective decision-making.

The April 2026 Claude Mythos sandbox escape exposed a critical weakness in frontier AI containment: the infrastructure surrounding advanced models remains susceptible to formally characterizable arithmetic vulnerabilities. Anthropic has not publicly characterized the escape vector; some secondary accounts hypothesize a CWE-190 arithmetic vulnerability in sandbox networking code. We treat this as unverified and analyze the vulnerability class rather than the specific escape. This paper presents COBALT, a Z3 SMT-based formal verification engine for identifying CWE-190/191/195 arithmetic vulnerability patterns in C/C++ infrastructure prior to deployment. We distinguish two classes of contribution. Validated: COBALT detects arithmetic vulnerability patterns in production codebases, producing SAT verdicts with concrete witnesses and UNSAT guarantees under explicit safety bounds. We demonstrate this on four production case studies: NASA cFE, wolfSSL, Eclipse Mosquitto, and NASA F Prime, with reproducible encodings, verified solver output, and acknowledged security outcomes. Proposed: a four-layer containment framework consisting of COBALT, VERDICT, DIRECTIVE-4, and SENTINEL, mapping pre-deployment verification, pre-execution constraints, output control, and runtime monitoring to the failure modes exposed by the Mythos incident. Under explicit assumptions, we further argue that the publicly reported Mythos escape class is consistent with a Z3-expressible CWE-190 arithmetic formulation and that pre-deployment formal analysis would have been capable of surfacing the relevant pattern. The broader claim is infrastructural: frontier-model safety cannot depend on behavioral safeguards alone; the containment stack itself must be subjected to formal verification.

Safety-critical traffic reasoning requires contrastive consistency: models must detect true hazards when an accident occurs, and reliably reject plausible-but-false hypotheses under near-identical counterfactual scenes. We present CCTVBench, a Contrastive Consistency Traffic VideoQA Benchmark built on paired real accident videos and world-model-generated counterfactual counterparts, together with minimally different, mutually exclusive hypothesis questions. CCTVBench enforces a single structured decision pattern over each video question quadruple and provides actionable diagnostics that decompose failures into positive omission, positive swap, negative hallucination, and mutual-exclusivity violation, while separating video versus question consistency. Experiments across open-source and proprietary video LLMs reveal a large and persistent gap between standard per-instance QA metrics and quadruple-level contrastive consistency, with unreliable none-of-the-above rejection as a key bottleneck. Finally, we introduce C-TCD, a contrastive decoding approach leveraging a semantically exclusive counterpart video as the contrast input at inference time, improving both instance-level QA and contrastive consistency.

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) provide an intuitive way to understand recommender systems by identifying minimal modifications to user-item interactions that alter recommendation outcomes. Existing CE methods for recommender systems, however, have been evaluated under heterogeneous protocols, using different datasets, recommenders, metrics, and even explanation formats, which hampers reproducibility and fair comparison. Our paper systematically reproduces, re-implement, and re-evaluate eleven state-of-the-art CE methods for recommender systems, covering both native explainers (e.g., LIME-RS, SHAP, PRINCE, ACCENT, LXR, GREASE) and specific graph-based explainers originally proposed for GNNs. Here, a unified benchmarking framework is proposed to assess explainers along three dimensions: explanation format (implicit vs. explicit), evaluation level (item-level vs. list-level), and perturbation scope (user interaction vectors vs. user-item interaction graphs). Our evaluation protocol includes effectiveness, sparsity, and computational complexity metrics, and extends existing item-level assessments to top-K list-level explanations. Through extensive experiments on three real-world datasets and six representative recommender models, we analyze how well previously reported strengths of CE methods generalize across diverse setups. We observe that the trade-off between effectiveness and sparsity depends strongly on the specific method and evaluation setting, particularly under the explicit format; in addition, explainer performance remains largely consistent across item level and list level evaluations, and several graph-based explainers exhibit notable scalability limitations on large recommender graphs. Our results refine and challenge earlier conclusions about the robustness and practicality of CE generation methods in recommender systems: https://github.com/L2R-UET/CFExpRec.

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

In cooperative teams where agents act in a fixed order and share a single team-level reward (multi-agent language systems, sequential robotic tasks), per-agent credit assignment is under-determined. Critic-based approaches scale poorly as the number of agents grows owing to the costly maintenance of joint/factored critic(s), whereas the existing critic-free alternatives have other issues: common credit across agents that couples every agent's signal to teammate noise, importance-sampling corrections for upstream-update staleness that incur variance exponential in team size, or per-agent counterfactual replay that isolates each agent's effect at the price of extra environment or reward calls. We propose COSAC, a critic-free per-agent policy gradient for sequential cooperative teams. COSAC fits an additive per-agent decomposition of the team reward by a single ridge regression on the rollout batch (giving each agent a learning signal decoupled from teammate noise), and computes each agent's counterfactual advantage from fictitious continuations of the current policy (policy forward passes that replace both importance-sampling reweighting and per-agent environment replay, at no extra environment or reward cost). The estimator instantiates the Sequential Aristocrat Utility (SeqAU), our extension of Wolpert and Tumer's (2001) aristocrat utility to sequential teams. We prove bias and variance bounds on SeqAU credits that stay controlled as the team grows. Our controlled study on sequential bandits demonstrates that COSAC attains the lowest advantage MSE and consistently low learning regret across team sizes up to $K = 16$. On the AI2 Reasoning Challenge (ARC) task, where four Qwen3-0.6B agents reason in turn about a grade-school science question, COSAC attains faster convergence than the other critic-free baselines.

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are essential for interpreting black-box models, yet they often become invalid when models are slightly changed. Existing methods for generating robust CFEs are often limited to specific types of models, require costly tuning, or inflexible robustness controls. We propose a novel approach that jointly models the data distribution and the space of plausible model decisions to ensure robustness to model changes. Using a probabilistic consensus over a model ensemble, we train a conditional normalizing flow that captures the data density under varying levels of classifier agreement. At inference time, a single interpretable parameter controls the robustness level; it specifies the minimum fraction of models that should agree on the target class without retraining the generative model. Our method effectively pushes CFEs toward regions that are both plausible and stable across model changes. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves superior empirical robustness while also maintaining good performance across other evaluation measures.

Machine unlearning has gained increasing attention in recent years, as a promising technique to selectively remove unwanted privacy or copyrighted information from Large Language Models that are trained on a massive scale of human data. However, the emergence of Large Reasoning Models (LRMs), which emphasize long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning to address complex questions, presents a dilemma to unlearning: existing methods either struggle to completely eliminate undesired knowledge from the CoT traces or degrade the reasoning performances due to the interference with the reasoning process. To this end, we introduce Counterfactual Unlearning through iterative Preference Optimization (CiPO), a novel framework that redefines unlearning as the targeted intervention of the CoT reasoning in LRMs. More specifically, given a desired unlearning target answer, CiPO instructs LRMs to generate a logically valid counterfactual reasoning trace for preference tuning. As the LRM adjusts to the counterfactual trace, CiPO iteratively updates the preference learning data to increase the discrepancy from the original model. This iterative loop ensures both desirable unlearning and smooth optimization, effectively mitigating the dilemma. Experiments on challenging benchmarks demonstrate that CiPO excels at unlearning, completely removing knowledge from both the intermediate CoT steps and the final answer, while preserving the reasoning abilities of LRMs.

Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) has established itself as a critical paradigm for the alignment of Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) with complex human values and domain-specific requirements. Nevertheless, current research primarily focuses on mitigating exogenous distribution shifts arising from data-centric factors, the non-stationarity inherent in the endogenous reasoning remains largely unexplored. In this work, a critical vulnerability is revealed within MLLMs: they are highly susceptible to endogenous reasoning drift, across both thinking and perception perspectives. It manifests as unpredictable distribution changes that emerge spontaneously during the autoregressive generation process, independent of external environmental perturbations. To adapt it, we first theoretically define endogenous reasoning drift within the RFT of MLLMs as the multi-modal concept drift. In this context, this paper proposes Counterfactual Preference Optimization ++ (CPO++), a comprehensive and autonomous framework adapted to the multi-modal concept drift. It integrates counterfactual reasoning with domain knowledge to execute controlled perturbations across thinking and perception, employing preference optimization to disentangle spurious correlations. Extensive empirical evaluations across two highly dynamic and safety-critical domains: medical diagnosis and autonomous driving. They demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves superior performance in reasoning coherence, decision-making precision, and inherent robustness against extreme interference. The methodology also exhibits exceptional zero-shot cross-domain generalization, providing a principled foundation for reliable multi-modal reasoning in safety-critical applications.

Simulating group-level user behavior enables scalable counterfactual evaluation of merchant strategies without costly online experiments. However, building a trustworthy simulator faces two structural challenges. First, information incompleteness causes reasoning-based simulators to over-rationalize when unobserved factors such as offline context and implicit habits are missing. Second, mechanism duality requires capturing both interpretable preferences and implicit statistical regularities, which no single paradigm achieves alone. We propose Policy-Guided Hybrid Simulation (PGHS), a dual-process framework that mines transferable decision policies from behavioral trajectories and uses them as a shared alignment layer. This layer anchors an LLM-based reasoning branch that prevents over-rationalization and an ML-based fitting branch that absorbs implicit regularities. Group-level predictions from both branches are fused for complementary correction. We deploy PGHS on Meituan with 101 merchants and over 26,000 trajectories. PGHS achieves a group simulation error of 8.80%, improving over the best reasoning-based and fitting-based baselines by 45.8% and 40.9% respectively.

Contextual bandit algorithms suffer from high regret during cold-start, when the learner has insufficient data to distinguish good arms from bad. We propose augmenting Disjoint LinUCB with LLM pseudo-observations: after each round, a large language model predicts counterfactual rewards for the unplayed arms, and these predictions are injected into the learner as weighted pseudo-observations. The injection weight is controlled by a calibration-gated decay schedule that tracks the LLM's prediction accuracy on played arms via an exponential moving average; high calibration error suppresses the LLM's influence, while accurate predictions receive higher weight during the critical early rounds. We evaluate on two contextual bandit environments - UCI Mushroom (2-arm, asymmetric rewards) and MIND-small (5-arm news recommendation) - and find that when equipped with a task-specific prompt, LLM pseudo-observations reduce cumulative regret by 19% on MIND relative to pure LinUCB. However, generic counterfactual prompt framing increases regret on both environments, demonstrating that prompt design is the dominant factor, more important than the choice of decay schedule or calibration gating parameters. We analyze the failure modes of calibration gating on domains with small prediction errors and provide a theoretical motivation for the bias-variance trade-off governing pseudo-observation weight.

LLM-empowered agent simulations are increasingly used to study social emergence, yet the micro-to-macro causal mechanisms behind macro outcomes often remain unclear. This is challenging because emergence arises from intertwined agent interactions and meso-level feedback and nonlinearity, making generative mechanisms hard to disentangle. To this end, we introduce \textbf{\textsc{CAMO}}, an automated \textbf{Ca}usal discovery framework from \textbf{M}icr\textbf{o} behaviors to \textbf{M}acr\textbf{o} Emergence in LLM agent simulations. \textsc{CAMO} converts mechanistic hypotheses into computable factors grounded in simulation records and learns a compact causal representation centered on an emergent target $Y$. \textsc{CAMO} outputs a computable Markov boundary and a minimal upstream explanatory subgraph, yielding interpretable causal chains and actionable intervention levers. It also uses simulator-internal counterfactual probing to orient ambiguous edges and revise hypotheses when evidence contradicts the current view. Experiments across four emergent settings demonstrate the promise of \textsc{CAMO}.

Modern machine learning systems, such as generative models and recommendation systems, often evolve through a cycle of deployment, user interaction, and periodic model updates. This differs from standard supervised learning frameworks, which focus on loss or regret minimization over a fixed sequence of prediction tasks. Motivated by this setting, we revisit the classical model of learning from equivalence queries, introduced by Angluin (1988). In this model, a learner repeatedly proposes hypotheses and, when a deployed hypothesis is inadequate, receives a counterexample. Under fully adversarial counterexample generation, however, the model can be overly pessimistic. In addition, most prior work assumes a \emph{full-information} setting, where the learner also observes the correct label of the counterexample, an assumption that is not always natural. We address these issues by restricting the environment to a broad class of less adversarial counterexample generators, which we call \emph{symmetric}. Informally, such generators choose counterexamples based only on the symmetric difference between the hypothesis and the target. This class captures natural mechanisms such as random counterexamples (Angluin and Dohrn, 2017; Bhatia, 2021; Chase, Freitag, and Reyzin, 2024), as well as generators that return the simplest counterexample according to a prescribed complexity measure. Within this framework, we study learning from equivalence queries under both full-information and bandit feedback. We obtain tight bounds on the number of learning rounds in both settings and highlight directions for future work. Our analysis combines a game-theoretic view of symmetric adversaries with adaptive weighting methods and minimax arguments.

Counterfactual explanations (CE) explain model decisions by identifying input modifications that lead to different predictions. Most existing methods operate at the instance level. Distributional Counterfactual Explanations (DCE) extend this setting by optimizing an optimal transport objective that balances proximity to a factual input distribution and alignment to a target output distribution, with statistical certification via chance constrained bounds. However, DCE relies on gradient based optimization, while many real-world tabular pipelines are dominated by non-differentiable models. We propose DISCOVER, a model-agnostic solver for distributional counterfactual explanations. DISCOVER preserves the original DCE objective and certification while replacing gradient descent with a budgeted propose-and-select search paradigm. It exploits a sample-wise decomposition of the transport objective to compute per-row impact scores and enforce a top-k intervention budget, focusing edits on the most influential samples. To guide candidate generation without predictor gradients, DISCOVER introduces an OT-guided cone sampling primitive driven by input-side transport geometry. Experiments on multiple tabular datasets demonstrate strong joint alignment of input and output distributions, extending distributional counterfactual reasoning to modern black box learning pipelines. A code repository is available at: https://github.com/VALHALLA9/Discover.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have grown increasingly powerful in recent years, but can also exhibit harmful biases. Prior studies investigating such biases have primarily focused on demographic traits related to the visual characteristics of a person depicted in an image, such as their race or gender. This has left biases related to cultural differences (e.g., religion, socioeconomic status), which cannot be readily discerned from an individual's appearance alone, relatively understudied. A key challenge in measuring cultural biases is that determining which group an individual belongs to often depends upon cultural context cues in images, and datasets annotated with cultural context cues are lacking. To address this gap, we introduce Cultural Counterfactuals: a high-quality synthetic dataset containing nearly 60k counterfactual images for measuring cultural biases related to religion, nationality, and socioeconomic status. To ensure that cultural contexts are accurately depicted, we generate our dataset using an image-editing model to place people of different demographics into real cultural context images. This enables the construction of counterfactual image sets which depict the same person in multiple different contexts, allowing for precise measurement of the impact that cultural context differences have on LVLM outputs. We demonstrate the utility of Cultural Counterfactuals for quantifying cultural biases in popular LVLMs.

We propose PRISM-FCP (Partial shaRing and robust calIbration with Statistical Margins for Federated Conformal Prediction), a communication-efficient Byzantine-robust federated conformal prediction framework that uses partial model sharing to mitigate stochastic model-poisoning attacks during training and histogram-based filtering to mitigate adversarial calibration submissions. Existing robust FCP approaches primarily address adversarial behavior during calibration, leaving training-stage poisoning to separate robust-training mechanisms. PRISM-FCP instead considers the coupling between the two stages. During training, clients partially share updates by transmitting only $M$ of $D$ parameters per round. Under the stated stochastic attack model, this attenuates the expected energy of each Byzantine client's perturbation contribution to the aggregate by a factor of $M/D$ relative to full sharing. When this benefit outweighs the optimization slowdown caused by partial updates, it can reduce training error and improve interval efficiency. During calibration, the server uses client-provided characterization vectors to filter suspected Byzantine clients before estimating the conformal quantile from the retained clients. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks and the UCI Superconductivity and YearPredictionMSD datasets, including Gaussian, ALIE, and sign-flipping training-stage attacks, demonstrate near-nominal empirical coverage and favorable communication--performance tradeoffs in the studied settings.

Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) promise to ground language instructions in robot control, yet in practice often fail to faithfully follow language. When presented with instructions that lack strong scene-specific supervision, VLAs suffer from counterfactual failures: they act based on vision shortcuts induced by dataset biases, repeatedly executing well-learned behaviors and selecting objects frequently seen during training regardless of language intent. To systematically study it, we introduce LIBERO-CF, the first counterfactual benchmark for VLAs that evaluates language following capability by assigning alternative instructions under visually plausible LIBERO layouts. Our evaluation reveals that counterfactual failures are prevalent yet underexplored across state-of-the-art VLAs. We propose Counterfactual Action Guidance (CAG), a simple yet effective dual-branch inference scheme that explicitly regularizes language conditioning in VLAs. CAG combines a standard VLA policy with a language-unconditioned Vision-Action (VA) module, enabling counterfactual comparison during action selection. This design reduces reliance on visual shortcuts, improves robustness on under-observed tasks, and requires neither additional demonstrations nor modifications to existing architectures or pretrained models. Extensive experiments demonstrate its plug-and-play integration across diverse VLAs and consistent improvements. For example, on LIBERO-CF, CAG improves $π_{0.5}$ by 9.7% in language following accuracy and 3.6% in task success on under-observed tasks using a training-free strategy, with further gains of 15.5% and 8.5%, respectively, when paired with a VA model. In real-world evaluations, CAG reduces counterfactual failures of 9.4% and improves task success by 17.2% on average.

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) provide human-centric interpretability by identifying the minimal, actionable changes required to alter a machine learning model's prediction. Therefore, CFs can be used as (i) interventions for abnormality prevention and (ii) augmented data for training robust models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of CF generation using large language models (LLMs), including GPT-4 (zero-shot and few-shot) and two open-source models-BioMistral-7B and LLaMA-3.1-8B, in both pretrained and fine-tuned configurations. Using the multimodal AI-READI clinical dataset, we assess CFs across three dimensions: intervention quality, feature diversity, and augmentation effectiveness. Fine-tuned LLMs, particularly LLaMA-3.1-8B, produce CFs with high plausibility (up to 99%), strong validity (up to 0.99), and realistic, behaviorally modifiable feature adjustments. When used for data augmentation under controlled label-scarcity settings, LLM-generated CFs substantially restore classifier performance, yielding an average 20% F1 recovery across three scarcity scenarios. Compared with optimization-based baselines such as DiCE, CFNOW, and NICE, LLMs offer a flexible, model-agnostic approach that generates more clinically actionable and semantically coherent counterfactuals. Overall, this work demonstrates the promise of LLM-driven counterfactuals for both interpretable intervention design and data-efficient model training in sensor-based digital health. Impact: SenseCF fine-tunes an LLM to generate valid, representative counterfactual explanations and supplement minority class in an imbalanced dataset for improving model training and boosting model robustness and predictive performance

Early lane-change intention prediction is essential for autonomous driving and ADAS, but it remains challenging because lane-changing behavior depends on evolving traffic risk, surrounding-vehicle interactions, and target-lane feasibility rather than only instantaneous vehicle states. This study proposes an evolutionary physics-informed temporal fusion framework for three-class lane-change intention prediction, including left lane change, right lane change, and no lane change. Instead of using static physics-informed variables alone, the proposed method derives temporal descriptors from conventional traffic signals, including risk evolution, gap persistence, counterfactual lane utility, interaction pressure gradient, maneuver feasibility, and intent consistency. These descriptors are fused with temporal embeddings learned from raw trajectory sequences through a sequence encoder, and the fused representation is used for final classification. Experiments are conducted on the highD and exiD datasets under 1,s, 2,s, and 3,s prediction horizons. The proposed model achieves Macro F1-scores of 0.9514, 0.9256, and 0.8872 on highD, and 0.9386, 0.9070, and 0.8531 on exiD, respectively. The improvement is especially pronounced in exiD ramp-adjacent scenarios, indicating that temporal physical evolution is particularly useful in interaction-rich environments. These results demonstrate that combining evolutionary physics-informed descriptors with learned temporal representations provides a more dynamic and interpretable solution for early lane-change intention prediction.

Assessing the importance of individual features in Machine Learning is critical to understand the model's decision-making process. While numerous methods exist, the lack of a definitive ground truth for comparison highlights the need for alternative, well-founded measures. This paper introduces a novel post-hoc local feature importance method called Counterfactual Importance Distribution (CID). We generate two sets of positive and negative counterfactuals, model their distributions using Kernel Density Estimation, and rank features based on a distributional dissimilarity measure. This measure, grounded in a rigorous mathematical framework, satisfies key properties required to function as a valid metric. We showcase the effectiveness of our method by comparing with well-established local feature importance explainers. Our method not only offers complementary perspectives to existing approaches, but also improves performance on faithfulness metrics (both for comprehensiveness and sufficiency), resulting in more faithful explanations of the system. These results highlight its potential as a valuable tool for model analysis. Link to repository: https://github.com/EddieConti/CID

Despite recent progress in 3D-LLMs, they remain limited in accurately grounding language to visual and spatial elements in 3D environments. This limitation stems in part from training data that focuses on language reasoning rather than spatial understanding due to scarce 3D resources, leaving inherent grounding biases unresolved. To address this, we propose 3D scene editing as a key mechanism to generate visual counterfactuals that mitigate these biases through fine-grained spatial manipulation, without requiring costly scene reconstruction or large-scale 3D data collection. Furthermore, to make these edits targeted and directly address the specific weaknesses of the model, we introduce DEER-3D, an error-driven framework that diagnoses grounding failures and generates targeted counterfactual training supervision via a structured "Decompose, Diagnose, Edit, and Retrain" loop. Specifically, given a grounding failure, DEER-3D first identifies the predicate-level error (e.g., attribute or spatial relation). It then performs minimal predicate-aligned scene edits, such as recoloring or repositioning, and constructs aligned question-answer pairs that explicitly target the failed predicate, forming targeted counterfactual training examples. We evaluate our editing pipeline across multiple benchmarks for 3D grounding and scene understanding tasks, consistently demonstrating improvements across all grounding datasets through iterative refinement (4-6% gains). DEER-3D underscores the effectiveness of targeted, error-driven scene editing in bridging linguistic reasoning with spatial grounding in 3D LLMs.

Brain tumors induce complex structural deformations that obscure the patient' s original neuroanatomy, making it difficult to distinguish tumor-induced changes from inherent anatomical variability. Reconstructing a subject-specific pseudo-healthy brain can provide a critical reference for such analysis, but this task is inherently counterfactual, as paired pre-tumor scans and explicit healthy guidance are unavailable. We propose BrainNormalizer, a diffusion-based framework for subject-specific pseudo-healthy brain MRI reconstruction that enables anatomy-informed reconstruction without requiring paired data or explicit healthy references. The framework learns anatomical priors and edge-based structural conditioning through a two-stage training strategy consisting of inpainting-based diffusion fine-tuning and ControlNet-based edge conditioning. At inference, counterfactual pseudo-healthy reconstruction is achieved through a deliberate misalignment strategy, where tumorous inputs are paired with non-tumorous prompts and mirrored contralateral edge maps. This allows subject-specific anatomical guidance to be constructed from the patient's own anatomy, enabling anatomically consistent pseudo-healthy reconstruction that preserves individual structural characteristics. Experiments on the BraTS2020 dataset demonstrate that BrainNormalizer achieves improved distributional realism, symmetry-based structural consistency, and reduced false positive detection compared to existing methods. These results indicate that the proposed framework provides a principled approach for subject-specific counterfactual reconstruction and supports downstream analysis of tumor-induced deformation.

Current visual models often make predictions based on a limited set of discriminative visual cues. As a result, they may become unreliable when the distribution shifts or when these cues are missing. Faithful attribution methods can reveal such problematic reliance through localized explanations, but they are typically used post hoc and are not fed back into the model. To address this limitation, we propose Subset-Selected Counterfactual Augmentation (SS-CA), a training strategy that masks decision-relevant regions to construct counterfactual samples and guide the model toward more robust decision boundaries. Specifically, we extend LIMA, a subset-selection-based faithful attribution method, to Counterfactual LIMA to identify regions whose removal shifts the model toward a competing class. SS-CA then selects near-boundary masks that reduce the logit gap while preserving the original semantics, and applies an adaptive counterfactual filling strategy to replace the masked regions without introducing external semantics. Feeding these counterfactual samples back into training encourages the model to exploit the remaining informative evidence and shifts the decision boundary toward a more robust one. Extensive experiments across five ImageNet variants show that SS-CA effectively improves ID accuracy, OOD generalization, and perturbation robustness, achieving gains of 5.70%/18.04% on ImageNet-1k/ImageNet-R with CLIP ViT/32b, 9.52%/11.33% on ImageNet-R/ImageNet-S on TinyImageNet-200 with ResNet-101, and about 4% under Gaussian Noise corruption. The code will be released soon.

Large language models (LLMs) are now widely deployed in user-facing applications, reaching hundreds of millions of users worldwide. Despite their widespread adoption, growing reliance on their outputs raises significant concerns, particularly as users may be exposed to model-inherent biases that disadvantage or stereotype certain groups. However, existing bias benchmarks commonly rely on simple templated prompts or restrictive multiple-choice questions that fail to capture the complexity of real-world user interactions. In this work, we address this gap by introducing a counterfactual framework that automatically generates realistic, open-ended questions for LLM bias evaluation. Through iterative question mutation, our approach systematically explores areas where models are most likely to exhibit biased behavior. Beyond just detecting harmful biases, we also capture increasingly relevant response dimensions, such as asymmetric refusals and explicit bias acknowledgment. Building on this, we construct CAB, a diverse and human-verified benchmark for realistic and nuanced bias evaluations on current frontier LLMs. Our evaluation using CAB highlights the continued need for fairness research by showing that all examined models exhibit persistent biases across certain scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing (NLP), enabling diverse applications by integrating large-scale pre-trained knowledge. However, their static knowledge limits dynamic reasoning over external information, especially in knowledge-intensive domains. Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) addresses this challenge by combining retrieval mechanisms with generative modeling to improve contextual understanding. Traditional RAG systems suffer from disrupted contextual integrity due to text chunking and over-reliance on semantic similarity for retrieval, often resulting in shallow and less accurate responses. We propose Causal-Counterfactual RAG, a novel framework that integrates explicit causal graphs representing cause-effect relationships into the retrieval process and incorporates counterfactual reasoning grounded on the causal structure. Unlike conventional methods, our framework evaluates not only direct causal evidence but also the counterfactuality of associated causes, combining results from both to generate more robust, accurate, and interpretable answers. By leveraging causal pathways and associated hypothetical scenarios, Causal-Counterfactual RAG preserves contextual coherence, reduces hallucination, and enhances reasoning fidelity.

We study operator relevance in data-driven partial differential equation (PDE) discovery. Sparse residual methods can select terms that improve residual fit, but residual contribution is not the same as functional necessity. We formalize this distinction through counterfactual operator interventions, where a candidate term is deleted or perturbed and the factual and intervened trajectories, or observables, are compared. The resulting theory gives six reusable results. A residual--counterfactual gap theorem shows that deletion effects are governed by the inverse linearized PDE map, not by residual magnitude alone. A certified decision theorem gives error margins for relevance, irrelevance, and abstention under neural or numerical surrogate error. An aliasing theorem characterizes experiment-dependent non-identifiability through the null space of the operator-evaluation design. A constraint-manifold theorem shows that operators vanishing on invariant constraint classes cannot be identified from trajectories restricted to those classes. A pruning-consistency theorem proves that sparse screening followed by counterfactual deletion recovers the functionally relevant support under a recall and margin condition. An observable-level adjoint theorem extends relevance testing from full-state deviations to scientific quantities of interest. Validation experiments test these mechanisms on synthetic PDEs with known support and on public geophysical fields from atmospheric reanalysis and NOAA OISST. The real-data results are reported as operator-surrogate diagnostics, not as unconditional recovery of physical laws. The framework provides a rigorous diagnostic layer for distinguishing residual usefulness from counterfactual operator relevance within a specified library, experiment class, norm, and tolerance.

We study counterfactual regression, which maps features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This problem is central to decision-making under distribution shift, where treatment patterns may change at deployment. We develop a semiparametric framework for counterfactual regression along a prespecified incremental-intervention path. The target is a finite-dimensional constrained projection of counterfactual risk, estimated using cross-fitted influence-function representations of the program components. For smooth programs with fixed constraints and finite-dimensional programs with estimated linear constraints, we establish consistency and local stability of the optimizer under class-specific conditions, and derive pointwise and uniform first-order expansions. These results yield asymptotically valid inference, including simultaneous confidence bands for the counterfactual regression path. Simulations and an application to SMS reminders illustrate the finite-sample performance and practical applicability of the proposed approach.

When asked to explain their decisions, LLMs can often give explanations which sound plausible to humans. But are these explanations faithful, i.e. do they convey the factors actually responsible for the decision? In this work, we analyse counterfactual faithfulness across 75 models from 13 families. We analyze the tradeoff between conciseness and comprehensiveness, how correlational faithfulness metrics assess this tradeoff, and the extent to which metrics can be gamed. This analysis motivates two new metrics: the phi-CCT, a simplified variant of the Correlational Counterfactual Test (CCT) which avoids the need for token probabilities while explaining most of the variance of the original test; and F-AUROC, which eliminates sensitivity to imbalanced intervention distributions and captures a model's ability to produce explanations with different levels of detail. Our findings reveal a clear scaling trend: larger and more capable models are consistently more faithful on all metrics we consider. Our code is available at https://github.com/google-deepmind/corr_faith.

In recent years, explainability in machine learning has gained importance. In this context, counterfactual explanation (CE), which is an explanation method that uses examples, has attracted attention. However, it has been pointed out that CE is not robust when there are multiple machine-learning models with similar accuracy. These problems are important when using machine learning to make safe decisions. In this paper, we propose robust CEs that introduce a new viewpoint -- Pareto improvement -- and a method that uses multi-objective optimization to generate it. To evaluate the proposed method, we conducted experiments using both simulated and real data. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is both robust and practical. This study highlights the potential of ensuring robustness in decision-making by applying the concept of social welfare. We believe that this research can serve as a valuable foundation for various fields, including explainability in machine learning, decision-making, and action planning based on machine learning.

Deep learning models exhibit fairness concerns when predictions are inadvertently influenced by sensitive attributes. However, existing attempts to make Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness optimizable rely on estimating marginal potential outcome probabilities-an approach that fundamentally requires high-dimensional conditional density estimation and breaks down in modalities such as medical images, where the curse of dimensionality renders reliable estimation infeasible. To address this limitation, we reduce the problem of enforcing Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness to a causal conditional independence constraint and prove that satisfying this constraint is sufficient to eliminate the unfair causal effect. This reduction replaces intractable counterfactual estimation with a discriminative optimization objective that remains scalable in high-dimensional settings.

Imperfect Information Games (IIGs) are used to model games under uncertainty or lack complete information. Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) is one of the most successful families of algorithms for IIGs. The integration of skill-based strategy learning with CFR could potentially mirror more human-like decision-making and improve learning on complex IIGs. It enables the learning of a hierarchical strategy, wherein low-level components represent skills for solving subgames and the high-level component manages the transition between skills. In this paper, we introduce the first hierarchical version of Deep CFR (HDCFR), an innovative method that boosts learning efficiency in tasks involving extensively large state spaces and deep game trees. Notably, HDCFR enables learning with predefined (human) expertise and extracting skills transferable to similar tasks. We first present the algorithm and establish its theory in a tabular setting, including hierarchical CFR update rules and a variance-reduced Monte Carlo sampling extension for the model-free setting, where backtracking is infeasible. We then extend HDCFR to large-scale tasks via deep learning objectives that match the tabular targets under exact function fitting. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/HDCFR_RUN-677B.

Counterfactual explanations explain machine learning predictions by identifying minimal input changes that would alter a model's decision. Although many existing methods successfully generate prediction-changing alternatives, they often produce unrealistic or infeasible recommendations due to a lack of explicit mechanisms for incorporating domain knowledge and intervention constraints. Neuro-symbolic AI offers a promising direction by combining data-driven predictive models with symbolic reasoning capable of representing human-understandable rules and feasible actions. This paper presents PACE, a modular neuro-symbolic framework for generating feasibility-aware counterfactual explanations. The framework separates prediction and reasoning into two components: a neural predictive model for classification and a symbolic reasoning layer that enforces domain-specific constraints during counterfactual generation. By explicitly modeling feasible interventions, the framework produces explanations consistent with domain knowledge while remaining interpretable and actionable. The approach is model-agnostic and adaptable to domains requiring realistic decision support. A case study is conducted on the Adult Income dataset, combining a multilayer perceptron classifier with Answer Set Programming (ASP) rules encoding feasible modifications to education, occupation, and working hours while preserving immutable attributes. Results highlight the trade-off between counterfactual validity and plausibility and show that symbolic constraints yield explanations that better satisfy domain-specific feasibility requirements, illustrating the potential of neuro-symbolic methods for transparent, feasibility-aware counterfactual explanation in explainable AI.