Data-Driven

Data-driven modeling is becoming central to multiphase transport, electronics cooling, acoustic diagnostics, and thermal-fluid digital twins, but progress is limited by fragmented datasets and raw instrument files that are difficult to decode, reuse, or benchmark. This paper presents an open ecosystem of multimodal datasets and open-source software packages developed by the Nano Energy and Data-Driven Discovery (NED3) Laboratory for reproducible AI-enabled thermal-fluid research. We introduce a spatial-plus-temporal dimensionality framework, denoted S+TD, to classify datasets by the dimensionality of measured or simulated fields, including 0+0D point values, 0+1D time series, 1+0D profiles, 2+0D images, 2+1D videos, 3+0D volumetric fields, and multimodal combinations. We organize public NED3 datasets spanning boiling images, acoustic and thermal measurements, high-speed videos, infrared thermography, thermal-resistance measurements, CFD-generated fields, design files, and acoustic-emission data. We also describe complementary software packages, including BubbleID, SeqReg, CFDTwin, IRISApp, decode-wfs, AELab, and FlowLab, which support computer vision, sequence regression, surrogate modeling, infrared analysis, waveform decoding, acoustic-emission analysis, and multimodal diagnostics. Particular emphasis is placed on SeqReg, a general sequence-regression library for 0+1D, 1+1D, and 2+1D data, with applications such as nonintrusive heat-flux estimation. Finally, we discuss future community efforts to build interoperable thermal-fluid databanks and curated AI/ML tool libraries that connect datasets, metadata, decoders, baselines, benchmarks, and physically interpretable models.

Predictive modelling is important for health data analysis and data-driven clinical decision-making. However, predictive studies are challenging to design optimally by hand when tens or even hundreds of features require selection, transformation, or interaction modelling. While complex machine learning models offer high performance, their "black-box" nature limits the clinical trust, transparency, and interpretability required for decision-making. We developed and evaluated an Exploratory AI Recommender that provides data-driven recommendations to improve predictive performance of existing interpretable statistical models. The developed framework uses flexible AI modelling to capture complex data patterns and explainable AI techniques to translate the patterns into three recommendation types: feature exclusion, non-linear terms, and feature interactions. We evaluated the framework by comparing predictive performance of a baseline (i.e., no interactions or non-linear terms) Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH) model against an augmented CPH incorporating recommendations suggested by our method. The primary analysis predicts the time to the first occurrence of a fall or related injury in 245,614 patients. Our method recommended excluding 23 features, including non-linear terms for two features, and including 221 suggested feature interactions. The C-index improved from 0.805 (95% CI 0.798-0.812) to 0.815 (95% CI 0.809-0.822), and so did calibration (intercept: -0.006 to 0.003; slope: 1.063 to 0.950). All recommendations were supported by existing literature. The method also proved effective on two additional public datasets, demonstrating wider applicability. The proposed Exploratory AI Recommender demonstrates the potential of explainable AI and data-driven study design to improve the process of developing, and the performance of high-dimensional transparent predictive models.

This study presents a comprehensive approach for the clustering and classification of upper-limb surface electromyography (sEMG) signals during functional reach and grasp movements. The methodology was applied to the NINAPRO DB4 dataset, which provides multichannel EMG recordings of 52 gestures. A four-stage pipeline was designed, including signal preprocessing, fea-ture extraction, gesture selection via hierarchical clustering, and comparative model evaluation. Preprocessing involved a fourth-order low-pass filter (0.6 Hz) and Hilbert envelope transformation, effectively reducing noise and enhancing signal clarity. Feature extraction yielded 26 temporal and frequency-domain met-rics, which were later refined using visual analysis, mutual information, principal component analysis, and decision tree importance scores. A final subset of five key features was selected for classification tasks. Gesture selection was per-formed through hierarchical clustering using Mahalanobis distance, resulting in six representative movements that balanced biomechanical diversity and compu-tational efficiency. A 200 ms window was identified as optimal for temporal seg-mentation based on stability and physiological plausibility. Classifier models were evaluated in two stages. Automated comparison using PyCaret identified Extra Trees (ET) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as top performers. Sub-sequent independent training confirmed their stability and generalization capac-ity, with ANN showing progressive learning and ET maintaining robust, con-sistent results. The findings support the implementation of adaptive, low-latency control strategies for myoelectric prostheses and provide a scalable pipeline for future real-time applications.

The article observes data analysis of 286 multi-word expressions (MWEs) based on 16 lexical, grammatical and other criteria described in theoretical books and papers on the notion of idiomaticity. MWEs were collected from the same theoretical sources, and a set of experts in linguistics annotated them with these categories. The distribution of categories shows that there are no absolutely idiomatic expressions. Lexical criteria seem to be the most influential; grammatical criteria are bound to certain conditions; presence of obsolete words and grammar influence ability of an MWE to be replaced with one word.

Lagrangian Relaxation (LR) is a powerful technique for solving large-scale Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), particularly those with decomposable structures, such as vehicle routing or unit commitment problems. By relaxing the coupling constraints, LR enables parallel subproblem solving and often yields tighter dual bounds than standard linear programming relaxations, which is crucial for efficient branch-and-bound pruning. While recent empirical work has shown promising results using machine learning to predict these multipliers, a theoretical understanding of such methods remains an open question. In this work, we bridge this gap by analyzing the problem of learning LR through the lens of Data-driven Algorithm Design, i.e., a statistical learning problem over a distribution of problem instances. Our contributions are as follows: first, we derive a generalization bound of $\mathcal{O}(s^{1.5}/\sqrt{N})$ for the learned multipliers, where $s$ is the number of coupling constraints and $N$ is the sample size. Second, we provide a minimax lower-bound of $Ω(s/\sqrt{N})$, proving that a linear dependency is unavoidable. Third, we constructively close this theoretical gap by proving that Stochastic Gradient Ascent (SGA) with averaging achieves the minimax optimal rate $Θ(s/\sqrt{N})$. Finally, we extend our framework to the learning-to-warm-start setting, proving that it achieves a fast, minimax-optimal rate of $Θ(s/N)$ and establishing a theoretical advantage over direct multiplier prediction.

Developing dynamic models for tendon-driven continuum robots is challenging due to their nonlinear, high-dimensional, and friction-dominated dynamics. This paper presents a comparative study of data-driven system identification methods, including N4SID, ARX, and SINDYc, for modeling a tendon-actuated continuum robot with rolling joints developed at CERN. Despite the high number of joints of the robot, experimental analysis reveals that a two-degree-of-freedom dynamic model can accurately capture the system dynamics, owing to strong kinematic dependencies between the joints. The models are validated against experimental data, and used in the design of a model predictive controller, demonstrating their feasibility for real-time control.

Structural equation modeling is widely used in IS research. However, inconsistent construct definitions impede the cumulative development of knowledge. In this work, we present an approach that aims at the integration of structural equation models into a unified model: We use a combination of task-adapted text embeddings and clustering to produce a candidate set of construct groupings. Subsequently, we select the optimal solution using a loss function that explicitly trades off semantic purity and parsimony in the number of clusters. By making this trade-off explicit, our approach allows to analyze how construct groupings and their relations change as one shifts the priority from purity to parsimony. Empirically, we evaluate and explore the proposed methodology on two datasets from the IS domain.

Neural channel decoder, as a data-driven channel decoding strategy, has shown very promising improvement on error-correcting capability over the classical methods. However, the success of those deep learning-based decoder comes at the cost of drastically increased model storage and computational complexity, hindering their practical adoptions in real-world time-sensitive resource-sensitive communication and storage systems. To address this challenge, we propose an efficient variational diffusion model-based channel decoder, which effectively integrates the domain-specific belief propagation process to the modern diffusion model. By reaping the low-cost benefits of belief propagation and strong learning capability of diffusion model, our proposed neural decoder simultaneously achieves very low cost and high error-correcting performance. Experimental results show that, compared with the state-of-the-art neural channel decoders, our model provides a feasible solution for practical deployment via achieving the best decoding performance with significantly reduced computational cost and model size.

The demand for clean energy is ever increasing, with new nuclear technologies presenting a complementary solution to renewable energies. However, designing and operating these systems is exceptionally difficult, given the complexity of the physical phenomena that interact to form the system dynamics. While high-fidelity simulations help to understand the non-linear, multi-physics interactions within a reactor, they are computationally expensive and rarely suitable for real-time applications. Furthermore, model-based approaches are inherently sensitive to simplifying assumptions required to derive their governing equations and parameters, leading to inevitable discrepancies with real-world measurements. In contrast, Machine Learning (ML) methods have the potential to generate reliable surrogate models which may be able to quickly predict the system's behaviour. However, the number of data-driven methods that can potentially be used for this task is large and diverse. In a safety-critical setting such as nuclear engineering, a fair comparison of different ML methods, and a clear understanding of their advantages and limitations, is of paramount importance. To address this, we introduce a Common Task Framework (CTF) for ML in nuclear engineering, building upon previous efforts in dynamical systems and seismology. This CTF considers a curated set of datasets from different nuclear and nuclear-adjacent systems. The CTF evaluates the performance of a method on 12 established metrics, alongside a new paradigm focused on system monitoring from sparse measurements only. We illustrate the framework by benchmarking standard ML baselines against these datasets, revealing current method limitations. Our vision is to replace ad hoc comparisons with standardized evaluations on hidden test sets, raising the bar for rigour and reproducibility in scientific ML for the nuclear industry.

As intelligent systems are increasingly implemented in our society to make autonomous decisions, their commitment to human values raises serious concerns. Their alignment with human values remains a critical challenge because it can jeopardise the integrity and security of citizens. For this reason, an innovative human-centred and values-driven approach to decision making is required. In this work, we introduce the Fuzzy-Unweighted Value-Based Decision Making (FUW-VBDM) framework, where agents incorporate both quantitative and qualitative criteria to generate human-centred decisions. We also address the normative bias introduced by stakeholders with arbitrary weights by removing prior weights and introducing a fuzzy domain of decision variables defined for a score function. This concept allows us to generalise any VBDM problem as the search for feasible solutions when optimising the score in the weight domain. To provide a solution to FUW-VBDM, we present Rankzzy, a customizable unweighted ranking method that integrates fuzzy-based reasoning to quantify uncertainty. We mathematically prove the consistency of the Rankzzy for any admissible configuration selected by stakeholders. We show the applicability of our method through an illustrative case study, which we also use as a running example. The evaluation conducted indicates a reduced computational cost in large-scale value-based decision-making problems and a strong rank performance regarding existing approaches when employing the aggregation via Pythagorean means.

In the data-driven era, large-scale datasets are routinely collected and analyzed using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to inform decisions in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, employment, and criminal justice, raising concerns about the fairness behavior of these systems. Existing works in fair ML cover tasks such as bias detection, fair prediction, and fair decision-making, but largely focus on static settings. At the same time, fairness in temporal contexts, particularly survival/time-to-event (TTE) analysis, remains relatively underexplored, with current approaches to fair survival analysis adopting statistical fairness definitions, which, even with unlimited data, cannot disentangle the causal mechanisms that generate disparities. To address this gap, we develop a causal framework for fairness in TTE analysis, enabling the decomposition of disparities in survival into contributions from direct, indirect, and spurious pathways. This provides a human-understandable explanation of why disparities arise and how they evolve over time. Our non-parametric approach proceeds in four steps: (1) formalizing the necessary assumptions about censoring and lack of confounding using a graphical model; (2) recovering the conditional survival function given covariates; (3) applying the Causal Reduction Theorem to reframe the problem in a form amenable to causal pathway decomposition; (4) estimating the effects efficiently. Finally, our approach is used to analyze the temporal evolution of racial disparities in outcome after admission to an intensive care unit (ICU).

Reconciling platform revenue with user experience in LLM advertising motivates a data-centric foundation. We introduce NaiAD, the first comprehensive dataset for LLM-native advertising comprising 58,999 carefully constructed ad-embedded responses paired with user queries. NaiAD is organized around theoretically grounded evaluation metrics that separately and comprehensively capture user and commercial utility. To mitigate the dimensional collinearity of aligned LLMs, we propose a decoupled generation pipeline that produces structurally diverse samples, ranging from responses that explicitly disentangle stakeholder utilities to responses that are uniformly strong or weak across dimensions. We further provide score labels calibrated by a Variance-Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference (VC-PPI) framework, aligning automated scoring with human annotations. Mechanistic analyses reveal that successful ad integration relies on reasoning paths that cluster into four distinct semantic strategies. Models leveraging NaiAD internalize these strategies to simultaneously improve user and commercial utility, while enabling independent control over these distinct objectives via in-context learning. Together, these results position NaiAD as a foundational infrastructure for developing future LLM-native ad systems.

We develop and evaluate a data-driven approach for detecting unusual (anomalous) patient-management decisions using past patient cases stored in electronic health records (EHRs). Our hypothesis is that a patient-management decision that is unusual with respect to past patient care may be due to an error and that it is worthwhile to generate an alert if such a decision is encountered. We evaluate this hypothesis using data obtained from EHRs of 4486 post-cardiac surgical patients and a subset of 222 alerts generated from the data. We base the evaluation on the opinions of a panel of experts. The results of the study support our hypothesis that the outlier-based alerting can lead to promising true alert rates. We observed true alert rates that ranged from 25% to 66% for a variety of patient-management actions, with 66% corresponding to the strongest outliers.

Macroscopic transport modelling aims to predict traffic flows after proposed public policy interventions, such as a new road or railway section or a temporary road closure. As such, it is a vital step in infrastructure planning and development. Traditionally, building a transport model has relied on complex understanding of socio-economic characteristics of the population requiring expensive data collection via surveys, which are prone to biases. Previous numerical frameworks to optimize transport models to fit observed traffic flows are not easily-interpretable and can lead to overfit. We present here an alternative: a data-driven modelling protocol with objective function based on traffic counts, which can be nowadays cheaply and reliably obtained; explainable model weights; and a controlled path to increase model complexity and accuracy. We demonstrate our approach on several toy and realistic examples, and suggest ways to generalize to multimodal systems including public transport.

Accurate state-of-charge (SOC) estimation is critical for the safe and efficient operation of lithium-ion batteries in battery management systems (BMS). Although data-driven approaches can effectively capture nonlinear battery dynamics, many existing methods rely on long historical input sequences, resulting in high computational cost and introducing padding-induced positional bias at the beginning of drive cycles. To address these limitations, we propose C2L-Net, a novel context-to-latest data-driven framework for realistic online SOC estimation using only a short historical window (20 s). Unlike existing short-receptive-field or long-history models, the proposed framework explicitly separates contextual encoding from latest-measurement updating, enabling both efficient temporal modeling and rapid adaptation to dynamic battery states. The proposed model incorporates a chunk-based feature extraction mechanism that combines Theta Attention Pooling with a Fourier-based Seasonality Basis to capture local temporal patterns while reducing sequence length. A causal context encoder, integrating a gated recurrent unit (GRU) with Causal Cosine Attention, models temporal dependencies without information leakage. Furthermore, a latest-measurement decoder, inspired by recursive filtering, updates the contextual state using the most recent measurement, enhancing responsiveness to dynamic operating conditions. Extensive experiments on a public lithium-ion battery drive-cycle dataset under multiple fixed-temperature conditions demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art or competitive accuracy while significantly improving computational efficiency. In particular, C2L-Net achieves up to 60 times faster inference and requires fewer parameters than recent data-driven baselines, while maintaining robust performance across unseen driving profiles.

Accurate prediction of structural displacements under external loading is fundamental to structural health monitoring and seismic safety assessment. Although the finite element method (FEM) remains the prevailing approach because of its high accuracy, its considerable computational cost restricts its suitability for real-time monitoring applications. To address this limitation, this study proposes a data-driven framework based on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), in which structural systems are represented as graphs with joints modeled as nodes and structural members as edges. By incorporating both geometric and mechanical properties into the graph representation, the proposed model learns the relationship between applied loads and structural responses directly from simulated data. A synthetic dataset was generated from a two-story frame structure using ANSYS, and both a conventional Neural Network (NN) and a GNN were trained for comparison. The results show that the proposed GNN framework predicts displacements and rotations with high accuracy and outperforms the NN model, demonstrating its potential as a fast and efficient alternative to traditional FEM-based analysis.

Accurate weather forecast reporting enables individuals and communities to better plan daily activities and agricultural operations. However, the current reporting process primarily relies on manual analysis of multi-source data, which leads to information overload and reduced efficiency. With the development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), leveraging data-driven models to analyze and generate reports in the weather forecasting domain remains largely underexplored. In this work, we propose the Weather Forecasting Report (WFR) task and construct the first instruction-tuning dataset for this task, named~\DatasetNameL, which covers 31 cities in America and 8 weather aspects. Based on this corpus, we develop the first model, \ModelNameL, specialized in generating weather forecast reports. Evaluation across multiple metrics on our dataset shows that \ModelNameL~ consistently outperforms leading closed-source MLLMs, particularly on structurally complex weather aspects. We further analyze its performance across diverse geographic regions and weather aspects. \ModelNameL~ demonstrates strong transferability across different regions, highlighting its zero-shot generalization capability. \ModelNameL~offers valuable insight for developing MLLMs specialized in weather report generation. .

We generalize Jan Willems' behavioral approach to a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Apart from linear time-invariant systems, this class covers nonlinear systems modeled by Volterra series and their autoregressive variants, as well as systems admitting Hammerstein-type state-space realizations. We apply the proposed framework to the problem of data-driven modeling of such systems, i.e., when simulation or control objectives for an unknown system are carried out without an explicit system identification step. To that end, we link the behavioral approach to two data-driven modeling methods in a vector-valued RKHS: (1) minimum-norm interpolation and (2) subspace identification.

The Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is a cornerstone statistic for nonparametric two-sample testing, but its test power is dictated entirely by the chosen kernel. Because any fixed kernel inherently fails to distinguish certain distributions, the kernel must be dynamically optimized. However, data-driven optimization violates the foundational i.i.d. assumption, forcing a strict trade-off in existing frameworks. Ratio criteria ignore this dependence, inducing overfitting and variance collapse on rich kernel classes. Conversely, aggregation methods bypass the dependence using finite grids, but this strategy cannot scale to continuous search spaces like deep kernels. To break this dichotomy, we establish data-driven kernel selection as a model selection problem. We propose Complexity-Penalized MMD (CP-MMD), a criterion derived by applying the two-sample uniform concentration inequality of preceding works to the post-optimization MMD problem. The resulting penalty bounds the empirical MMD by the complexity of the kernel search space, mathematically absorbing the cost of optimization, so that CP-MMD enables direct, grid-free maximization over continuous parametric classes, including scalar bandwidths, polynomial feature bandwidths, and deep network parameters. By formally accounting for optimization complexity, we prove that CP-MMD maximizes true test power while ensuring unconditional Type-I validity. Consequently, CP-MMD enables grid-free kernel selection across linear, polynomial-feature, and deep regimes, matching or exceeding state-of-the-art test power.

Data-driven equation discovery is fundamentally an inverse problem that seeks to infer the governing differential equations of a system directly from time-series measurements. A known issue is the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem, which frequently produces multiple mathematical models that fit the data similarly well. One path to address this issue is by incorporating known hypotheses and constraints into the training phase beforehand. While this approach effectively reduces the search space, it still results in multiple candidate models, forcing practitioners to rely on post-hoc manual filtering based on their own domain expertise. A recent approach incorporates structural `skeletons' inspired by characteristic curves (CCs), defining a hypothesis-driven methodology. In this methodology, practitioners define a skeleton, which is associated with a family of ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and then add their hypotheses and priors based on their domain knowledge to refine the obtained model iteratively. An important advantage of this approach is that some skeletons have demonstrable structural identifiability properties, which are useful for checking whether the skeleton is correct or should be discarded. Furthermore, this formalism enables the use of multiple equation discovery paradigms due to its modularity (such as neural networks, symbolic regression, and sparse regression). In this work, we present the Python library PyCC, which condenses these efforts into a flexible tool that allows researchers and engineers to seamlessly define their skeletons and hypotheses to discover ODEs from time-dependent data.

We develop and evaluate a data-driven approach for detecting unusual (anomalous) patient-management actions using past patient cases stored in an electronic health record (EHR) system. Our hypothesis is that patient-management actions that are unusual with respect to past patients may be due to a potential error and that it is worthwhile to raise an alert if such a condition is encountered. We evaluate this hypothesis using data obtained from the electronic health records of 4,486 post-cardiac surgical patients. We base the evaluation on the opinions of a panel of experts. The results support that anomaly-based alerting can have reasonably low false alert rates and that stronger anomalies are correlated with higher alert rates.

We consider the problem of learning data-driven replicas for stiff systems of ordinary differential equations arising in chemical kinetics that can be evaluated with high computational efficiency. We first focus on training emulators for families of reaction equations under varying reaction rates, using conditional residual networks or long-short term memory architectures. We then apply a recently proposed data-driven framework known as ``inVAErt networks'' to address the ill-posed inverse problem of inferring reaction rates, integration time, and possibly initial conditions from a target set of species concentrations - a problem that has received relatively little attention in the literature. The proposed approach is demonstrated on chemical systems with reversible and irreversible kinetics, spanning 2 to 20 differential equations, 3 to 20 chemical species, and 3 to 25 reaction rate parameters. Relative root mean squared errors produced by the proposed emulators range from $10^{-5}$ for lower-dimensional systems to $10^{-4}$ and $10^{-3}$ for an air pollution model and a hydrogen-air reaction system, respectively. Manifolds of non-identifiable reaction rates recovered by the proposed approach can be analytically verified for simple systems and are consistent with local identifiability analysis in higher dimensions.

Phase-transition phenomena in deep learning (grokking, emergent capabilities, and ontological reorganization under context shift) have been studied through several lenses, including representational compression, singular learning theory, and information-theoretic progress measures. Independently, non-equilibrium statistical physics has identified phase transitions in driven chemical reaction networks underlying prebiotic selection, with empirical signatures that are difficult to reproduce within single-field gradient accounts. We propose a perspective in which both classes of phenomena admit a common description as driven informational systems: stochastic processes governed by two gradient fields, an entropy production rate Sigma and an information quasi-potential Phi_I := -ln p*, where p* is the stationary density. Within this framework we introduce two candidate order parameters: an adversarial breakdown threshold alpha_dagger and a self-referential coupling threshold kappa_c. The joint scaling of (alpha_dagger, kappa_c) defines a candidate universality class with exponents (gamma_1, gamma_2). We outline the geometric structure of this framework, identify falsifiable predictions distinguishing it from single-field alternatives, and show consistency with recent empirical findings (2024--2026) on alignment transitions, adversarial breakdown scaling, and partial introspection in large language models.

Flavor-tagging calibrations are often provided either as scale factors measured at a finite set of working points or as binned corrections to a chosen one-dimensional discriminant. However, this approach falls short of providing continuous, event-level calibration across the full multicomponent outputs of modern taggers. This limitation leads to information loss in analyses that demand high-performance flavor tagging, restricting analyses to a limited set of predefined variables. In this work, we propose a geometry-aware framework that formulates flavor-tagger calibration as an optimal transport problem on the probability simplex. The transport maps are parameterized and trained in the isometric log-ratio coordinate system. Because the quadratic Euclidean cost of Brenier transport in this coordinate system is equivalent to the Aitchison distance on the simplex, the learned map induces a minimal deformation under the Aitchison geometry. Furthermore, we extract flavor-conditional target distributions directly from control-region data using an expectation-maximization (EM) technique that simultaneously fits multiple control regions, models each flavor component with a normalizing flow, and estimates the regional mixture fractions. The extracted targets are subsequently used to learn flavor-factorized transport maps. Because the joint estimation of mixture fractions and flexible component densities admits weakly constrained directions, we further introduce a linearized feedback-operator analysis that propagates the fitted composition covariance into the extracted component densities, separating data-constrained modes from those dominated by the composition prior. The simulation-based closure study demonstrates improved closure in dedicated control regions and in independent validation mixtures.

Deep Unfolding Network-based methods have emerged as effective solutions for multi-source image fusion by combining model-driven iterative optimization with data-driven deep learning. However, most existing deep unfolding image fusion methods are derived from alternating minimization, which updates the features of different modalities separately. This design introduces considerable computational and memory overhead, limiting deployment on resource-constrained edge devices. To address this issue, we propose CDNet, a lightweight Combined Dictionary Unfolding Network for multi-source image fusion. Rather than introducing a new sparse coding prior or empirically compressing an existing fusion network, CDNet translates the unique-common decomposition prior of coupled dictionary learning into a structurally constrained joint unfolding architecture. The resulting CDBlock follows a block-sparse interaction topology and performs a model-derived joint update of common and modality-specific representations, thereby streamlining feature learning and improving efficiency.In addition, we design a compact High- and Low-frequency Image Fidelity loss for unsupervised training without ground-truth images. We evaluate CDNet on four tasks, including multi-exposure image fusion, infrared and visible image fusion, medical image fusion, and infrared and visible image fusion for semantic segmentation. Experimental results show that CDNet achieves competitive or superior fusion performance with high efficiency. For infrared and visible image fusion, CDNet outperforms competing methods on four of six metrics on the TNO dataset and five of six metrics on the RoadScene dataset. In particular, it surpasses the second-best method by 1.23 dB and 1.59 dB in PSNR on TNO and RoadScene, respectively.

Frontier AI both amplifies existing risks and introduces qualitatively novel challenges. Not only is there a notable lack of stable scientific consensus resulting from the rapid pace of technological change, but emerging frontier AI safety practices are often misaligned with, or may undermine, established risk management frameworks. To address these challenges, we systematically surface open problems in frontier AI risk management. Adopting a problem-oriented approach, we examine each stage of the risk management process - risk planning, identification, analysis, evaluation, and mitigation - through a structured review of the literature, identifying unresolved challenges and the actors best positioned to address them. Recognising that different types of open problems call for different responses, we classify open problems according to whether they reflect (a) a lack of scientific or technical consensus, (b) misalignment with, or challenges to, established risk management frameworks, or (c) shortcomings in implementation despite apparent consensus and alignment. By mapping these open problems and identifying the actors best positioned to address them - including developers, deployers, regulators, standards bodies, researchers, and third-party evaluators - this work aims to clarify where progress is needed to enable robust and meaningful consensus on frontier AI risk management.The paper does not propose specific solutions; instead, it provides a problem-oriented, agenda-setting reference document, complemented by a living online repository, intended to support coordination, reduce duplication, and guide future research and governance efforts.

Creative Generation (CG) leverages generative models to automatically produce advertising content that highlights product features, and it has been a significant focus of recent research. However, while CG has advanced considerably, most efforts have concentrated on generating advertising text and images, leaving Creative Video Generation (CVG) relatively underexplored. This gap is largely due to two major challenges faced by Text-to-Video (T2V) models: (a) \textbf{ambiguous semantic alignment}, where models struggle to accurately correlate product selling points with creative video content, and (b) \textbf{inadequate motion adaptability}, resulting in unrealistic movements and distortions. To address these challenges, we develop a comprehensive Advertising Creative Knowledge Base (ACKB) as a foundational resource and propose a knowledge-driven approach (KD-CVG) to overcome the knowledge limitations of existing models. KD-CVG consists of two primary modules: Semantic-Aware Retrieval (SAR) and Multimodal Knowledge Reference (MKR). SAR utilizes the semantic awareness of graph attention networks and reinforcement learning feedback to enhance the model's comprehension of the connections between selling points and creative videos. Building on this, MKR incorporates semantic and motion priors into the T2V model to address existing knowledge gaps. Extensive experiments have demonstrated KD-CVG's superior performance in achieving semantic alignment and motion adaptability, validating its effectiveness over other state-of-the-art methods. The code and dataset will be open source at https://kdcvg.github.io/KDCVG/.

Peak picking is a fundamental preprocessing step in Mass Spectrometry Imaging (MSI), where each sample is represented by hundreds to thousands of ion images. Existing approaches require careful dataset-specific hyperparameter tuning, and often fail to generalize across acquisition protocols. We introduce IonMorphNet, a spatial-structure-aware representation model for ion images that enables fully data-driven peak picking without any task-specific supervision. We curate 53 publicly available MSI datasets and define six structural classes capturing representative spatial patterns in ion images to train standard image backbones for structural pattern classification. Once trained, IonMorphNet can assess ion images and perform peak picking without additional hyperparameter tuning. Using a ConvNeXt V2-Tiny backbone, our approach improves peak picking performance by +7 % mSCF1 compared to state-of-the-art methods across multiple datasets. Beyond peak picking, we demonstrate that spatially informed channel reduction enables a 3D CNN for patch-based tumor classification in MSI. This approach matches or exceeds pixel-wise spectral classifiers by up to +7.3 % Balanced Accuracy on three tumor classification tasks, indicating meaningful ion image selection. The source code and model weights are available at https://github.com/CeMOS-IS/IonMorphNet.

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become a widely adopted parameter-efficient fine-tuning method for large language models, with its effectiveness largely influenced by the allocation of ranks and scaling factors, as well as initialization. Existing LoRA variants typically address only one of these factors, often at the cost of increased training complexity or reduced practical efficiency. In this work, we present Task-aware Low-Rank Adaptation (TLoRA), a unified framework that jointly optimizes initialization and resource allocation at the outset of training. TLoRA introduces a data-driven initialization strategy that aligns the LoRA $A$ matrix with task-relevant subspaces by performing singular value decomposition on the product of pre-trained weights and input activation covariance. After this, the $A$ matrix is frozen, and only the $B$ matrix is trained. Furthermore, TLoRA employs a sensitivity-based importance metric to adaptively allocate ranks and scaling factors across layers under a fixed parameter budget. We conduct extensive experiments that demonstrate TLoRA consistently performs excellently across various tasks, including natural language understanding, commonsense reasoning, math reasoning, code generation, and chat generation, while significantly reducing the number of trainable parameters.

Presentation slides are a primary medium for data-driven reporting, yet keeping complex, analytics-style decks up to date remains labor-intensive. Existing automation methods mostly follow fixed template filling and cannot support dynamic updates for diverse, user-authored slide decks. We therefore define "Dynamic Slide Update via Natural Language Instructions on User-provided Templates" and introduce DynaSlide, a large-scale benchmark with 20,036 real-world instruction-execution triples (source slide, user instruction, target slide) grounded in a shared external database and built from business reporting slides under bring-your-own-template (BYO-template) conditions. To tackle this task, we propose SlideAgent, an agent-based framework that combines multimodal slide parsing, natural language instruction grounding, and tool-augmented reasoning for tables, charts, and textual conclusions. SlideAgent updates content while preserving layout and style, providing a strong reference baseline on DynaSlide. We further design end-to-end and component-level evaluation protocols that reveal key challenges and opportunities for future research. The dataset and code are available at https://github.com/XiaoZhou2024/SlideAgent.

Classical representation systems such as Fourier series, wavelets, and fixed dictionaries provide analytically tractable basis expansions, but they are not intrinsically adapted to the empirical structure of modern high-dimensional data. Neural networks overcome this limitation by learning features from data, yet they do so through layered nonlinear parameterizations that often sacrifice interpretability, explicit control over basis structure, and mathematical transparency. In this manuscript we develop a non-neural alternative that learns basis functions directly from data through variational optimization. The proposed framework, termed Data Driven Variational Basis Learning (DVBL), treats basis atoms as primary optimization variables and learns them jointly with sample-specific coefficients and, when appropriate, a latent linear evolution operator. This yields a data-adaptive basis expansion that remains explicit, interpretable, and amenable to rigorous analysis. We formulate the model, establish existence of minimizers, prove blockwise descent properties for an alternating minimization algorithm, give conditions for coefficient recovery and basis identifiability, and show how manifold and dynamical regularization can be integrated without invoking neural architectures. We also discuss the conceptual novelty of the framework relative to classical dictionary learning, spectral methods, Koopman operator methods, and deep representation learning.

While traditional AI and data-driven facilities management approaches have improved building operational efficiency, they remain constrained by centralized organizational structures that are vulnerable to cyber attacks, limited contextual understanding, and decision-making processes that exclude key stakeholders from governance. This paper introduces a novel AI- and data-driven distributed governance framework for smart building management that integrates decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), digital twins, large language models (LLMs), and blockchain technology. The framework enables transparent collective decision-making through a DAO governance platform, implements data-driven management using IoT and digital twins, incorporates LLM-based virtual assistants for enhanced decision support, and utilizes blockchain for secure building automation. A full-stack decentralized application was developed to facilitate user interaction with these integrated components. The system was evaluated for cost efficiency, scalability, data security, and usability using the System Usability Scale (SUS). Expert interviews were also conducted to assess its practical benefits and implementation challenges.

Multimodal instruction tuning is often compute-inefficient because training budgets are spread across large mixed image-video pools whose utility is highly uneven. We present Goal-Driven Data Optimization (GDO), a framework that computes six sample descriptors for each candidate and constructs optimized 1$\times$ training subsets for different goals. Under a fixed one-epoch Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct training and evaluation recipe on 8 H20 GPUs, GDO uses far fewer training samples than the Uni-10x baseline while converging faster and achieving higher accuracy. Relative to the fixed 512k-sample Uni-10x baseline, GDO reaches the Uni-10x reference after 35.4k samples on MVBench, 26.6k on VideoMME, 27.3k on MLVU, and 34.7k on LVBench, while improving Accuracy by +1.38, +1.67, +3.08, and +0.84 percentage points, respectively. The gains are largest on MVBench and MLVU, while LVBench improves more modestly, consistent with its ultra-long-video setting and the mismatch between that benchmark and the short-video/image-dominant training pool. Across MinLoss, Diverse, Temp, and Temp+, stronger temporal emphasis yields steadily better long-video understanding behavior. Overall, GDO provides a goal-driven data optimization framework that enables faster convergence with fewer training samples under a fixed training protocol. Code is available at https://github.com/rujiewu/GDO.

Large Language Model (LLM) adapters enable low-cost model specialization, but introduce complex caching and scheduling challenges in distributed serving systems where hundreds of adapters must be hosted concurrently. While prior work has largely focused on latency and throughput optimization, minimizing GPU resource requirements through near-peak utilization remains largely underexplored. This paper presents a data-driven pipeline that, for a given workload, computes an adapter placement that serves the workload with the minimum number of GPUs while avoiding request starvation and GPU memory errors. To that end, the approach identifies the maximum feasible throughput attainable on each GPU by leveraging accurate performance predictions learned from real serving behavior. The proposed pipeline integrates three components: (i) a Digital Twin (DT) tailored to LLM-adapter serving, (ii) a distilled machine learning (ML) model trained on DT-generated data, and (iii) a greedy placement algorithm that exploits ML-based performance estimates to maximize GPU efficiency. The DT emulates real system dynamics with high fidelity, achieving below 5% throughput estimation error while executing up to 90x faster than full LLM benchmarking across both predictable and unpredictable workloads. The learned ML models further accelerate performance estimation with marginal accuracy degradation, enabling scalable optimization. Experimental results demonstrate that the pipeline substantially improves GPU efficiency, reducing the number of GPUs required to sustain target workloads by 60% on average across the evaluated scenarios. Beyond GPU efficiency, the pipeline can be adapted to alternative objectives, such as latency minimization, highlighting its versatility for future large-scale LLM serving infrastructures.

Unsupervised remote sensing change detection (UCD) aims to localise changes between two images of the same region without relying on labelled training data. Most recent approaches either use a frozen foundation model in a training-free manner or train with synthetic changes generated in pixel space. Both strategies inherently rely on predefined assumptions about change types, typically introduced through handcrafted rules, external datasets, or auxiliary generative models. Due to these assumptions, such methods fail to generalise beyond a few change types, limiting their real-world usage, especially in rare or complex scenarios. To address this, we propose MaSoN (Make Some Noise), an end-to-end UCD framework that synthesises diverse changes directly in the latent feature space during training. It generates changes dynamically estimated from feature statistics of the target data, enabling diverse yet data-driven variation aligned with the target domain. Since synthesis happens in latent space, it also easily extends to new modalities, such as SAR and multispectral data. MaSoN generalises strongly across diverse change types and improves the average F1 score across five benchmarks by 14.1 percentage points. Project page: https://blaz-r.github.io/mason_ucd/

The contemporary paradigm of trajectory learning operates fundamentally at the level of group dynamics, systematically reducing individual-level complexity to fit group-level models, thus rendering effective patient subtyping difficult and individual-level modeling largely out of reach. We propose a data-driven paradigm that introduces a dedicated individual-level temporal variable to capture \emph{Timing Attention} (i.e., the degree of concentration of an event's timing distribution across the patient cohort), thereby rendering timing a \emph{computable dimension} that enables individualized temporal features in trajectory learning. Instantiated as the Level-of-Individual Time Transformation (LITT) and applied to longitudinal EHR data from 3,276 breast cancer patients, the proposed paradigm demonstrates, for the first time to our knowledge: (1) automatic discovery of clinically significant patient trajectories, and (2) counterfactual timing deduction, that is, a \emph{What-If Machine}. Both results are purely data-driven, requiring no prior domain knowledge. LITT further achieves strong performance on timing prediction and survival analysis tasks.

This work develops an active learning framework to intelligently enrich data-driven reduced-order models (ROMs) of parametric dynamical systems, which can serve as the foundation of virtual assets in a digital twin. Data-driven ROMs are explainable, computationally efficient scientific machine learning models that aim to preserve the underlying physics of complex dynamical simulations. Since the quality of data-driven ROMs is sensitive to the quality of the limited training data, we seek to identify training parameters for which using the associated training data results in the best possible parametric ROM. Our approach uses the operator inference methodology, a regression-based strategy which can be tailored to particular parametric structure for a large class of problems. We establish a probabilistic version of parametric operator inference, casting the learning problem as a Bayesian linear regression. Prediction uncertainties stemming from the resulting probabilistic ROM solutions are used to design a sequential adaptive sampling scheme to select new training parameter vectors that promote ROM stability and accuracy globally in the parameter domain. We conduct numerical experiments for several nonlinear parametric systems of partial differential equations and compare the results to ROMs trained on random parameter samples. The results demonstrate that the proposed adaptive sampling strategy consistently yields more stable and accurate ROMs than random sampling does under the same computational budget.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) lack the hierarchical inductive biases inherent to Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), theoretically allowing them to maintain high-dimensional representations throughout all layers. However, recent observations suggest ViTs often spontaneously manifest a "U-shaped" entropy profile-compressing information in middle layers before expanding it for the final classification. In this work, we demonstrate that this "Inductive Bottleneck" is not an architectural artifact, but a data-dependent adaptation. By analyzing the layer-wise Effective Encoding Dimension (EED) of DINO-trained ViTs across datasets of varying compositional complexity (UC Merced, Tiny ImageNet, and CIFAR-100), we show that the depth of the bottleneck correlates strongly with the semantic abstraction required by the task. We find that while texture-heavy datasets preserve high-rank representations throughout, object-centric datasets drive the network to dampen high-frequency information in middle layers, effectively "learning" a bottleneck to isolate semantic features.

The deep learning revolution has spurred a rise in advances of using AI in sciences. Within physical sciences the main focus has been on discovery of dynamical systems from observational data. Yet the reliability of learned surrogates and symbolic models is often undermined by the fundamental problem of non-uniqueness. The resulting models may fit the available data perfectly, but lack genuine predictive power. This raises the question: under what conditions can the systems governing equations be uniquely identified from a finite set of observations? We show, counter-intuitively, that chaos, typically associated with unpredictability, is crucial for ensuring a system is discoverable in the space of continuous or analytic functions. The prevalence of chaotic systems in benchmark datasets may have inadvertently obscured this fundamental limitation. More concretely, we show that systems chaotic on their entire domain are discoverable from a single trajectory within the space of continuous functions, and systems chaotic on a strange attractor are analytically discoverable under a geometric condition on the attractor. As a consequence, we demonstrate for the first time that the classical Lorenz system is analytically discoverable. Moreover, we establish that analytic discoverability is impossible in the presence of first integrals, common in real-world systems. These findings help explain the success of data-driven methods in inherently chaotic domains like weather forecasting, while revealing a significant challenge for engineering applications like digital twins, where stable, predictable behavior is desired. For these non-chaotic systems, we find that while trajectory data alone is insufficient, certain prior physical knowledge can help ensure discoverability. These findings warrant a critical re-evaluation of the fundamental assumptions underpinning purely data-driven discovery.

Optimal sensor placement (OSP) is critical for efficient, accurate monitoring, control, and inference in complex physical systems. We propose a machine-learning-based feature attribution (FA) framework to identify OSP for target predictions. FA quantifies input contributions to a model output; however, it struggles with highly correlated input data often encountered in practical applications for OSP. To address this, we propose a Correlation-Assisted Attribution Framework (CAAF), which introduces a clustering step on the candidate sensor locations before performing FA to reduce redundancy and enhance generalizability. We first illustrate the core principles of the proposed framework through a series of validation cases, then demonstrate its effectiveness in realistic dynamical systems such as structural health monitoring, airfoil lift prediction, and wall-normal velocity estimation for turbulent channel flow. The results show that the CAAF outperforms alternative approaches that typically struggle due to the presence of nonlinear dynamics, chaotic behavior, and multi-scale interactions, and enables the effective application of FA for identifying OSP in real-world environments.

Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, those models still rely on initial conditions from NWP, putting an upper limit on their forecast abilities. A few end-to-end systems have since been proposed, but they have yet to match the forecast skill of state-of-the-art NWP competitors. In this work, we propose Huracan, an observation-driven weather forecasting system which combines an ensemble data assimilation model with a forecast model to produce highly accurate forecasts relying only on observations as inputs. Huracan is not only the first to provide ensemble initial conditions and end-to-end ensemble weather forecasts, but also the first end-to-end system to achieve an accuracy comparable with that of ECMWF ENS, the state-of-the-art NWP competitor, despite using a smaller amount of available observation data. Notably, Huracan matches or exceeds the continuous ranked probability score of ECMWF ENS on 80.2% of the variable and lead time combinations. Our work is a major step forward in end-to-end data-driven weather prediction and opens up opportunities for further improving and revolutionizing operational weather forecasting.

Existing unstructured data analytics systems rely on experts to write code and manage complex analysis workflows, making them both expensive and time-consuming. To address these challenges, we introduce AgenticData, an innovative agentic data analytics system that allows users to simply pose natural language (NL) questions while autonomously analyzing data sources across multiple domains, including both unstructured and structured data. First, AgenticData employs a feedback-driven planning technique that automatically converts an NL query into a semantic plan composed of relational and semantic operators. We propose a multi-agent collaboration strategy by utilizing a data profiling agent for discovering relevant data, a semantic cross-validation agent for iterative optimization based on feedback, and a smart memory agent for maintaining short-term context and long-term knowledge. Second, we propose a semantic optimization model to refine and execute semantic plans effectively. Our system, AgenticData, has been tested using three benchmarks. Experimental results showed that AgenticData achieved superior accuracy on both easy and difficult tasks, significantly outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

While color harmony has long been studied in art and design, a clear consensus remains elusive, as most models are grounded in qualitative insights or limited datasets. In this work, we present a quantitative, data-driven study of color pairing preferences using controlled hue-based palettes in the HSL color space. Participants evaluated combinations of thirteen distinct hues, enabling us to construct a preference matrix and define a combinability index for each color. Our results reveal that preferences are highly hue dependent, thereby challenging classical color harmony theories. Yet, when averaged over hues, statistically meaningful patterns of aesthetic preference emerge, with certain hue separations perceived as more harmonious. Strikingly, these patterns align with hue distributions found in natural landscapes, pointing to a statistical correspondence between human color preferences and the structure of color in nature. Finally, we analyze our color-pairing score matrix through principal component analysis, which uncovers two complementary hue groups whose interplay underlies the global structure of color-pairing preferences. Together, these findings offer a quantitative framework for studying color harmony and its potential perceptual and ecological underpinnings.

Compound flooding, driven by nonlinear interactions between multiple hydrometeorological factors, poses a significant challenge to hazard prevention. Existing forecasting approaches, whether physics-based or data-driven, often emphasize temporal patterns while underexploring how multiple interacting factors jointly shape flood dynamics. To address this problem, we conduct a large-scale data-driven analysis of compound flooding in South Florida, a typical area for compound flooding, by integrating tidal conditions, rainfall, groundwater stage, and human water management activities. Our analysis reveals three key findings: (i) models that capture temporal dynamics alone fail to represent multi-factor interactions during compound events; (ii) subsurface saturation, as reflected by groundwater levels, emerges as a dominant predictor of flood severity, often outweighing immediate rainfall intensity in this porous coastal region; and (iii) the spatial state of surrounding monitoring stations within a finite effective radius provides critical causal context for flooding, while extending temporal history yields diminishing returns during extreme events. These findings suggest that compound flooding is governed more by spatially coupled system states than by long-term temporal dependencies, challenging rain-centric and sequence-dominated forecasting paradigms. By framing data-driven models as tools for scientific inquiry rather than prediction alone, this study offers new insights into the mechanisms of compound flooding and informs the design of more physically grounded early-warning systems for coastal environments. Our dataset and code are publicly available at https://github.com/AslanDing/SFBench.

The characterization of Hamiltonians and other components of open quantum dynamical systems plays a crucial role in quantum computing and other applications. Scientific machine learning techniques have been applied to this problem in a variety of ways, including by modeling with deep neural networks. However, the majority of mathematical models describing open quantum systems are linear, and the natural nonlinearities in learnable models have not been incorporated using physical principles. We present a data-driven model for open quantum systems that includes learnable, thermodynamically consistent terms. The trained model is interpretable, as it directly estimates the system Hamiltonian and linear components of coupling to the environment. We validate the model on synthetic two and three-level data, as well as experimental two-level data collected from a quantum device at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

Neural differential equations offer a powerful approach for learning dynamical systems from data. However, they do not inherently respect known constraints, such as conservation laws, that should be obeyed by the learned dynamics. It is well known that enforcing constraints in data-driven models can enhance their generalizability and numerical stability. In this paper, we introduce projected neural differential equations (PNDEs), a method for constraining neural differential equations based on projection of the predicted velocities onto the tangent space of the manifold that fulfills the constraint. In tests on several examples from different fields, including chaotic dynamical systems and power grid models, PNDEs outperform existing methods for constraining learned dynamics, require fewer hyperparameters, and are computationally more efficient. The proposed approach demonstrates potential for enhancing the modeling of constrained dynamical systems, particularly in domains where accuracy and reliability are essential.

Dynamical systems form the foundation of scientific discovery, traditionally modeled with predefined state variables such as the angle and angular velocity, and differential equations such as the equation of motion for a single pendulum. We introduce a framework that automatically discovers a low-dimensional and operable representation of system dynamics, including a set of compact state variables that preserve the smoothness of the system dynamics and a differentiable vector field, directly from video without requiring prior domain-specific knowledge. The prominence and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated through both quantitative and qualitative analyses of a range of dynamical systems, including the identification of stable equilibria, the prediction of natural frequencies, and the detection of chaotic and limit cycle behaviors. The results highlight the potential of our data-driven approach to advance automated scientific discovery.

Many systems resist analytical modeling, making data-driven inference of dynamics important. Yet data-driven methods can fail to converge or generalize, leaving open a central question: When can system behavior be learned reliably from data, and when is such learning impossible? We answer this question using adversarial dynamical systems to identify the boundary between accessible and inaccessible regimes. In Koopman operator learning, a leading framework for representing nonlinear dynamics through linear spectral objects, we design optimal data-driven spectral algorithms with convergence and certification guarantees under conditions arising broadly in physical systems. This yields a convergence theory for Koopman-operator approximations and resolves a longstanding open problem in Koopman spectral analysis. Conversely, by constructing adversarial systems, we prove matching impossibility results: without these conditions, no single-sequence limiting procedure can guarantee learning, regardless of data quality. These results sharply characterize when data-driven spectral learning can succeed and when it must fail. We validate the framework on oscillators, chaotic fluid flows and Arctic sea ice concentration forecasting. In the latter, we uncover hidden modes of Arctic sea ice decline, deliver long-range forecasts with geographic error bounds, and outperform state-of-the-art dynamical and deep learning models at substantially lower computational cost, enabling real-time deployment on standard CPUs.

The growing complexity of content moderation policies presents a critical challenge for their consistent operationalization. While foundation models possess the basic capabilities needed to confront this challenge, whether they can reliably moderate online content remains an unanswered question. In this paper, we systematically compare two competing paradigms for Vision-Language Model (VLM) guidance: an instruction-driven approach where models reason from policy precepts, and an example-driven approach where they generalize from prior precedents. We ground this investigation in ModerationBench, a new benchmark of 4,000 manually annotated, in-the-wild posts from the Bluesky platform. Our experiments reveal that foundation models can substantially outperform Bluesky's deployed moderation system, nearly tripling its $F_1$ score (0.60 vs. 0.22) on Random Posts in the benchmark, with both instruction- and example-driven paradigms achieving comparable peak effectiveness. Our findings thus chart a path toward reliable and adaptable policy operationalization at scale.