Data-Driven

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Period ending 2026-09-14

3 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Data-Driven.

Period ending 2026-09-07

3 new papers

A weekly snapshot of new work published in Data-Driven.

108 papers

Latest in Data-Driven

Sep 15, 2026cs.LG

High-Fidelity Digital Twin Data Models by Randomized Dynamic Mode Decomposition and Deep Learning with Applications in Fluid Dynamics

The purpose of this paper is the identification of high-fidelity digital twin data models from numerical code outputs by non-intrusive techniques (i.e., not requiring Galerkin projection of the governing equations onto the reduced modes basis). In this paper the author defines the concept of the digital twin data model (DTM) as a model of reduced complexity that has the main feature of mirroring the original process behavior. The significant advantage of a DTM is to reproduce the dynamics with high accuracy and reduced costs in CPU time and hardware for settings difficult to explore because of the complexity of the dynamics over time. This paper introduces a new framework for creating efficient digital twin data models by combining two state-of-the-art tools: randomized dynamic mode decomposition and deep learning artificial intelligence. It is shown that the outputs are consistent with the original source data with the advantage of reduced complexity. The DTMs are investigated in the numerical simulation of three shock wave phenomena with increasing complexity. The author performs a thorough assessment of the performance of the new digital twin data models in terms of numerical accuracy and computational efficiency.
Diana A. Bistrian
Sep 8, 2026cs.AI

A Data-Driven Framework for Identifying and Prioritizing RPA Opportunities in Healthcare Processes

Robotic Process Automation (RPA) is widely used to reduce administrative burden in United States hospitals, yet an estimated 30-50% of RPA initiatives underperform because processes are selected informally, without a repeatable method to catalogue candidates, prioritize them, match each to an automation tier -- a Python bot, an open-source orchestrator such as n8n, or an enterprise platform such as UiPath -- and forecast financial return before committing resources. We propose a four-module, data-driven framework unifying these decisions: a Process Taxonomy of twenty recurring hospital processes across five value streams; a Prioritization module deriving an Automation Suitability Index from an Analytic Hierarchy Process matrix with an explicit consistency check; a Tool-Tier Selection module recommending the least-cost technology sufficient for a process complexity, integration, and compliance profile; and a Return-on-Investment module quantifying labor savings, error-cost avoidance, payback, and net present value. Applied to a synthetic portfolio spanning all twenty processes, plus a reference data-flow architecture linking it to hospital EHR/payer/ERP systems: 12 of 20 clear the prioritization threshold; the ranking is robust to +/-20% weight perturbation (Spearman correlation 0.83, top-5 set preserved 97.7%, 2,000 Monte Carlo trials); an Automation Risk Index flags four qualifying processes as Critical risk; a budget-constrained portfolio optimization shows diminishing marginal NPV as spend scales from 400Kto400K to 1.03M; and a second Monte Carlo analysis shows portfolio NPV stays positive at its 5th percentile. The framework is a conceptual synthesis of the literature rather than an instrument calibrated on primary hospital data; we discuss HIPAA governance and a research agenda for empirical validation. A supplementary Python implementation accompanies the paper.
Maria Alejandra Gomez, Juan Manuel Castillo
Sep 7, 2026cs.AI

Unraveling the Real Working Mechanism and Inherent Flaws of GAE: A Method for Interpreting Transformer Processes from an Economic Perspective

We observe a phenomenon that current algorithmic research in the field of explainable artificial intelligence primarily pursues better performance on several proxy metrics. On the one hand, these proxy metrics themselves are more or less flawed and cannot properly measure the quality of methods. On the other hand, metric-oriented research approaches often lead to the neglect of the rationality and interpretability of the methods themselves. Explainable artificial intelligence is abbreviated as XAI. The metric-driven research paradigm has resulted in a lack of interpretability of the relevant XAI methods themselves. Accordingly, there is a need for interpretability research on XAI methods, which can be playfully referred to as XXAI. This paper is one of our works on XXAI. This paper takes Generic Attention-model Explainability (GAE), a widely influential model interpretation method , or rather, XAI method that represents an important technical route, as the research object, and explores the real working mechanism and flaws of this method as well as the technical route it represents. Based on the conclusions of this study, it may be necessary to re-examine or verify GAE-related methods and their domain applications. We argue that GAE is an interpretation method that focuses on the attention process. After pointing out the working mechanism and flaws of GAE, we propose Cumulative Asset Holdings (CAH), a more reasonable Transformer interpretation method integrating both process-based and feature-based ideas from an economic zero-sum games perspective. In addition, it is worth noting that our method is applicable to models with special tokens, where existing methods may suffer from limitations. The model simplification research method and the analysis of additive operations adopted in this study may provide inspiration for other research works in XAI.
Yongjin Cui, Xiaohui Fan
Sep 1, 2026cs.LG

Rethinking Learnability in Offline Data-driven Optimization

Black-Box Optimization (BBO) has broad applications, while traditional algorithms such as evolutionary algorithms and Bayesian optimization face efficiency challenges as real-world BBO problems grow increasingly complex. Data-driven optimization has been the most popular paradigm to improve the efficiency of BBO, by learning from data. Offline data-driven optimization seeks high-quality solutions using only a fixed set of previous evaluations, attracting substantial attention because it requires no additional online evaluations. Many offline optimization methods have been proposed, but a fundamental question remains unanswered: what learnability is sufficient for offline optimization? Prior theoretical studies show that Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learnability is insufficient, as the optimal region may remain poorly learned even when most regions are well learned. In this paper, we propose algorithm-dependent learnability, which requires accuracy only on the optimizer's trajectory. We prove that its value-query form is sufficient for representative discrete settings, including greedy and local search for submodular maximization, while its first-order analogue is sufficient for projected gradient descent on convex minimization. Motivated by this notion, we formalize a trajectory-learning framework comprising trajectory construction, trajectory modeling, and candidate generation, and analyze existing trajectory-based methods under it. We further propose Uncertainty-aware Gradient-guided Trajectory Learning (UGTL), which constructs locally coherent improvement trajectories reflecting plausible search paths, models them with conditional diffusion, and selects a diverse candidate set. Our experiments show that UGTL achieves the best average rank, 3.1/25, among 25 methods on Design-Bench tasks, and confirm that our trajectory construction plays a significant role in the improvement.
Chao Qian, Chen-Guang Wang, Rong-Xi Tan +1
Sep 1, 2026cs.AI

Data-Driven Persona-Conditioned Agents for A/B Test Simulation

A/B testing is the gold standard for evaluating product changes, but each experiment requires real user traffic, engineering effort, and weeks of measurement. We propose a simulation framework that predicts A/B test outcomes using LLM-powered agents conditioned on data-driven personas grounded in real user behavioral signals. Unlike prior work that relies on synthetic or rule-based personas, our agents are constructed from anonymized behavioral data-activity patterns, engagement signals, and inferred demographics-enabling more faithful population modeling. We frame A/B test simulation as a structured question task and systematically study (i) question design formats, (ii) the impact of persona data source and domain alignment, (iii) the trade-off between per-persona behavioral depth and population diversity, and (iv) efficient population subsampling. On a benchmark of 40 A/B tests spanning two metric types, our best configuration achieves 0.75-0.90 directional accuracy depending on the test metric, demonstrating that data-driven personas are a viable path toward fast, low-cost experiment pre-screening.
Ziyad Benomar, Weronika Łajewska, Leonardo Perelli +1
Aug 31, 2026cs.RO

A Hybrid PEM-GP Framework for Uncertainty-Aware System Identification of Quadcopters

Accurate dynamic models play a central role in achieving reliable control of quadcopters. Classical system identification methods remain widely used, mainly because of their interpretability. However, they often fail to capture important nonlinear effects, especially in small-scale aerial platforms where such effects become more pronounced. Data-driven approaches offer a different perspective. They can represent complex nonlinear dynamics more effectively, but this comes at the cost of reduced interpretability and the absence of well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a framework that combines physics-based modeling with data-driven learning, while explicitly accounting for uncertainty. A physics-based model is first identified using the Prediction Error Method (PEM), which captures the main structure of the system. The remaining dynamics are then modeled using a Gaussian Process (GP), allowing the residual behavior to be learned directly from data. This separation makes it possible to distinguish between known physical effects and unmodeled dynamics. The proposed framework is validated on a Duckiedrone-like experimental setup. The results show that the PEM-GP model achieves prediction accuracy comparable to that of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, while additionally providing calibrated uncertainty estimates. This combination improves model reliability and supports uncertainty-aware decision-making.
Abdallah Ghoul, Ismail Khalil Bousserhane, Kadri Boufeldja
Aug 13, 2026math.ST

On the Structural Limits of Machine Learning Decision Systems: An Information-Theoretic, Interaction-Based, and Stochastic-Dynamical Perspective

Machine learning procedures are commonly evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. However, their achievable performance is fundamentally constrained by structural properties of the underlying data-generating process, which are formalized in terms of informational bounds. In this work we examine intrinsic limits of data-driven decision systems from an information-theoretic and interaction-based perspective. We analyze minimal achievable error in classification through Fano-type bounds and precision limits in parametric estimation via the Cramér-Rao inequality, emphasizing that such limits depend on the underlying model rather than on algorithmic sophistication alone. We further discuss how implicit assumptions, such as independence, ergodicity, and distributional stability, affect the validity of inferential procedures. Building on interaction-based modeling principles, we review typical frameworks such as Markov Random Fields and potential based representations for encoding dependence mechanisms. We also describe decision systems, including LLM-integrated agent architectures, as feedback-driven stochastic processes where state-dependent dynamics may induce emergent macroscopic behavior. This perspective highlights the importance of having adequate models for the data as a prerequi- site for expanding predictive capability, and situates algorithmic learning within the informational limits imposed by the models.
Nestor R. Barraza, Gabriel Pena
Aug 11, 2026cs.LG

Diffusion-Based Data-Driven Assortment Optimization

Assortment optimization is a fundamental problem in revenue management, typically addressed using parametric choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) and its variants. While these models enable tractable formulations, their performance is sensitive to model misspecification and often struggles to capture complex customer behavior. In this paper, we propose a model-agnostic framework for assortment optimization based on guided discrete diffusion. We represent assortments as binary vectors and perform stochastic search via a learned reverse diffusion process, avoiding explicit combinatorial enumeration. To incorporate decision objectives, we introduce a reward-guided mechanism that biases local transitions using estimates of expected revenue. This allows the method to effectively balance exploration and exploitation during generation. Empirically, we show that the proposed approach consistently identifies high-quality assortments and remains robust under model misspecification, often recovering near-optimal solutions in high-dimensional settings. Moreover, the generative nature of diffusion enables the production of diverse high-performing assortments, offering flexibility beyond a single deterministic solution. These results highlight the potential of generative modeling as a scalable and robust paradigm for combinatorial optimization in data-driven decision-making.
Junyi Liao, Xiaohui Jiang, Zhengwei Tong +2
Aug 9, 2026cs.LG

Task-to-Model Optimization for Enterprise LLM Coding Assistants: A Data-Driven Framework for Cost-Optimal Routing

Enterprise AI coding assistants incur substantial inference spend, and naive token-cost minimization often fails to reduce end-to-end cost once retries, escalations, and developer wait time are included. We present Task-to-Model Optimization (T2MO), a data-driven methodology for optimizing model selection in production coding workflows. We treat each developer session as a task that can be discovered, classified, graded for difficulty, benchmarked in a production-like harness, and routed to the cheapest model able to complete it within quality and latency constraints. The framework is a nine-stage pipeline spanning telemetry instrumentation, taxonomy discovery, difficulty grading, benchmark construction, candidate evaluation, optimal mix derivation, forecasting and version planning, staged routing deployment, and continuous governance. Unlike token-centric routing rules, our objective is cost per completed task, with failure escalation priced in explicitly. We show that this expected-completion-cost objective weakly dominates token-cost minimization under escalation, and we derive the routing boundary, the minimum pass rate a cheaper model must reach on a given cell to be worth deploying. Decisions are organized as a two-level hierarchy of task category difficulty tier, and per-cell displacement opportunities are aggregated into a traffic-weighted savings waterfall that ranks replacement candidates by realized dollar impact. The framework supports developer guidance, spend forecasting, and a staged transition from static policies to shadow-mode classifiers, verified cascades, and ultimately an intelligent router. We describe the methodology, optimization objective, evaluation protocol, and governance loop in a form suitable for production deployment and future empirical study.
Srinivasan Manoharan, Junhua Zhao, Fangbo Tu +6
Aug 7, 2026cs.AI

SetEasy: A Multi-Modal Classroom Engagement Assessment and Seating Optimization Framework

SetEasy optimizes classroom engagement in fixed seating grids. It fuses multimodal sensing (wristband physiology, 4K video, environmental data) and trains a v-Gage model grounded in a revised ISEQ. Each week, two-week engagement forecasts are mapped to a student-seat utility matrix, and CP-SAT generates seating plans under visual-access and social-dynamics constraints. In a four-week deployment (23 students, 331 classes), v-Gage converged across affective, behavioral, cognitive, and overall dimensions, cutting RMSE from 0.75 to 0.53. Optimization raised mean engagement from 0.30 to 0.70, with over two-thirds of seats reaching high engagement and back-row low-activity patterns markedly reduced. These results show that, without hardware changes, interpretable, data-driven seating strategies can substantially enhance engagement. The multimodal "assessment + optimization" paradigm offers a transferable, sustainable path to culturally responsive, differentiated spatial design amid global homogenization.
Zhihao Xie, Hongye Yang, Shien Liu
Aug 6, 2026cs.AI

Shaping Human-AI Interactions to Provide Improvement Pathways and Balance Competing Objectives

When an AI system is deployed, the individuals who use and or are evaluated by it form beliefs about how the system operates and use those beliefs to strategically present their preferences, behaviors, or attributes. The system then responds with feedback or a decision outcome, thereby creating a human-AI interaction loop. This thesis studies how to design and shape such interactions to achieve three goals: (1) help individuals develop accurate beliefs about the AI systems so they can improve and or secure favorable outcomes at minimal cost, (2) encourage improvement and or discourage gaming behaviors, and (3) ensure that the AI system continues to achieve its intended objectives, such as maximizing accuracy. To address these goals, the thesis is organized into three complementary parts that examine and study human-AI interactions from the perspectives of both evaluated individuals and AI systems. Together, the work presented in this thesis advances human-centered machine learning by providing principles and methods for designing AI systems that align with human needs, values, and capabilities. Methodologically, this thesis integrates theoretical analysis, data-driven modeling, human-subject experiments, and empirical evaluations on real-world and semi-synthetic datasets.
Keziah Naggita
Aug 3, 2026physics.med-ph

Cardiovascular Digital Twins from Physics Based to Data Driven Approaches

Cardiovascular digital twins aim to create patient-specific computational models that evolve with clinical data to support diagnosis, prognosis, and therapy optimisation. Mechanistic models provide physiological interpretability but remain computationally demanding, whereas data-driven approaches improve scalability yet risk limited robustness. Emerging physics-informed, graph-based, and hybrid methods integrate physical constraints with relational learning across vascular networks. We review modelling paradigms, data assimilation frameworks, validation challenges, and translational pathways toward clinically deployable cardiovascular digital twins.
Emmanuel Lwele, Francis Chikweto
Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

Neural Network-Assisted CLEAN for Channel Modeling in Low-SNR Regimes

Accurate multipath parameter estimation is critical for modern wireless communication systems, particularly in challenging low-SNR environments. Traditional Maximum Likelihood Estimation algorithms, such as CLEAN, provide high-resolution parameter extraction but suffer from prohibitive computational complexity due to exhaustive grid search. Conversely, purely data-driven deep learning approaches lack physical grounding and struggle to generalize across variable multipath densities and off-grid parameters. To address these limitations, this paper proposes Neural Network-Assisted CLEAN (NN-CLEAN), a hybrid framework that embeds a multi-head residual network directly into the iterative CLEAN extraction loop. By replacing the exhaustive grid search with rapid, parallelizable forward passes while delegating residual subtraction to exact mathematical models, NN-CLEAN isolates physical multipath parameters without accumulating non- physical errors. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that NN-CLEAN achieves estimation accuracy exceeding 96% at 5 dB SNR, matching the traditional Grid-Search CLEAN (GS- CLEAN) baseline, while providing a massive reduction in computational complexity and substantially outperforming subspace methods and standalone one-shot neural networks. Crucially, NN-CLEAN exhibits a near-flat scaling in execution runtime and memory consumption as batch sizes increase. This highly efficient parallelization establishes NN-CLEAN as a robust, real- time solution for channel estimation in MIMO systems.
Chaofan Deng, Linyu Sun, Jaeho Lee +1
Jul 26, 2026cs.LG

A Multi-stage Constrained Optimization Framework for Data-driven Problems

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) transform high-dimensional, often noisy data into a compact latent representation, making downstream optimization more tractable. Three challenges persist in VAE-based constrained optimization: (i) sampling effectively within the latent space, (ii) identifying the active decision variables that actually influence the objective and constraints, and (iii) enforcing constraints without destabilizing training. We propose a Multi-stage Constrained Optimization Framework (MCOF). First, an entropy-constrained VAE (EC-VAE) coupled with a feature selector embeds objective and constraint information into a designated subset of latent variables, so that optimization proceeds over a low-dimensional subspace while the remaining coordinates supply solution diversity. Second, a Uniform Transformation (UT) module applies a per-dimension probability integral transform, replacing the irregular aggregate posterior with a uniform distribution over a bounded box and mitigating posterior collapse and Gaussian mixture bias. Third, a constraint-priority filter method (CPFM) solves the resulting surrogate problem by alternating violation-reduction and objective-reduction steps under a filter acceptance test, returning solutions that are feasible for the learned surrogate to a specified tolerance without requiring multiplier estimation. Finally, unselected latent coordinates are resampled to generate diverse decodings of a single optimized solution. We validate MCOF on a synthetic problem, where we ablate each stage and recover the analytic optimum, and on a ZINC250k drug design task, where the generated molecules satisfy the imposed constraints and are entirely novel relative to the training set.
Ye Shi
Jul 23, 2026cs.RO

StARS: Socially Appropriate Robot Actions via a Recommender System-Driven Approach

Social appropriateness in human-robot interaction (HRI) is not universal: different people can judge the same robot action differently in the same situation. To capture this inter-subject variability, we reformulate socially appropriate action generation as a preference modelling problem inspired by recommender systems, treating annotators as users, contexts/scenes as items, and appropriateness scores over a set of candidate robot actions as targets. We propose StARS, a novel model-agnostic framework that integrates collaborative filtering with learnable scene representations to generate user-specific appropriateness scores over candidate robot actions. StARS is model-agnostic: it can be integrated with various scene encoders and backbones, enabling personalisation without redesigning the underlying model. We evaluate StARS on two socially aware robotics datasets, MannersDB+ and SocNav1, and analyse robustness under sparse preference feedback. Across datasets and backbones, StARS consistently improves performance and agreement with annotators, supporting personalised action selection aligned with user norms. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Cambridge-AFAR/StARS.git.
Erencem Ozbey, Fethiye Irmak Dogan, Jin Huang +1
Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

A Diffusion-Model Subpopulation Digital Twin for Mobile Health Deployment: A Case Study on the HeartSteps Intervention

Mobile-health interventions increasingly use online learning and decision making algorithms to personalize when to nudge users toward healthier behavior, but a poorly designed algorithm can burden and disengage participants. New algorithm design decisions should therefore be vetted against realistic simulated users before each real-life deployment. We propose a method to develop ``JITAI-Twins'': digital twins of a target subpopulation for comparing candidate online algorithms before a just-in-time adaptive intervention (JITAI) deployment. The method builds on a conditional time-series diffusion model that is temporally consistent (future actions do not affect the generated past), and it supports repeated updating from three sources of information, in three steps: pre-training on a large observational dataset, fine-tuning on small prior intervention deployments in related populations, and inference-time calibration to the next target population from domain-scientist expertise. We validate the twin at each pre-deployment stage of the long-running HeartSteps series (v2 through v4) of physical-activity suggestion intervention deployments, treating each successive deployment as an upcoming study. The proposed method reproduces the target subpopulation's temporal and between-participant structure better than simpler simulators. These results suggest that our twin can be used to simulate a target deployment before it runs, the prerequisite for testing and informing online algorithm design decisions.
Ziping Xu, Yuyi Chang, Chenshun Ni +5
Jul 21, 2026cs.RO

Koopman DCM: Unstable Eigenfunctions as Data-driven Representations for Legged Balancing

In legged locomotion, divergent components of motion (DCMs) have emerged as characteristic states for balance control. They isolate the unstable mode of the dynamics but, in existing formulations, apply only to reduced models such as the linear inverted pendulum. In this study, we show how DCMs can be more generally formulated as Koopman eigenfunctions. Whereas Koopman analysis typically targets eigenvalues near zero, which capture conserved or slowly varying quantities, our investigation leads us to deliberately search for unstable eigenpairs with large eigenvalues. The resulting Koopman DCMs are data-driven observables trained using only real-robot data. On a real biped, DCMs learned from one hour of robot data improve tracking of reference walking patterns. We further show how learned DCMs provide state-based viability constraints when combined with model predictive control.
Stéphane Caron
Jul 17, 2026cs.LG

Revisiting data-driven dynamic security assessment with a tabular foundation model

Data-driven pre-fault dynamic security assessment (DSA) rapidly evaluates the dynamic risk of credible contingencies on a power system using machine learning. Existing approaches face two limitations. First, they require a large labelled database for training, with a separate model trained, tuned, and maintained for each contingency in a potentially long list of credible contingencies. Second, the trained models generalize poorly to unseen contingencies. This work addresses the limitations by using a tabular foundation model (TFM) that assesses stability through in-context learning, requiring no retraining or hyperparameter optimization. A single TFM can assess many contingencies at once, removing the need for one model per classifier. We also characterize when the use of electrical distance coordinates (EDC) as continuous features enables generalization of TFM to unseen contingencies and when they do not, demonstrating how a few labelled samples can reliably improve generalization. Through comprehensive case studies on the IEEE 68-bus system, we show that a single TFM attains an average Macro F1 score of about 90% with only 120 labelled samples per contingency, roughly two orders of magnitude fewer than conventionally assumed, without any model retraining or hyperparameter tuning. For new/unseen contingencies, we show that using just 10 labelled samples of the new contingency with EDC encoding matches the best achievable transfer learning oracle model, which requires fully labelled data and is not deployable in practice. Overall, this initial study paves the way towards developing and deploying foundation models for power system operations, with possible applications across multiple operational tasks.
Olayiwola Arowolo, Maosheng Yang, Jochen Cremer
Jul 15, 2026cs.LG

Conditional Invertible Neural Networks for Data-Driven UAV Control: A 2-D Proof of Concept

We investigate conditional invertible neural networks (cINNs) as probabilistic inverse-dynamics models for multirotor control. For a planar X8 coaxial multicopter, we learn p(ust,ct)p(u \mid s_t, c_t) from an incremental nonlinear dynamic inversion (INDI) teacher using rational-quadratic spline coupling and invertible linear mixing. Open-loop reproduction reaches R2=0.944R^2 = 0.944, mean CRPS 0.0915, and log-probability-error correlation ρ=0.60ρ= -0.60. Over 15 closed-loop scenarios, position RMSE matches INDI (9.7 vs. 9.5 m), with 47 percent tracking acceptably; failures separate into attitude divergence under aggressive steps and phase lag under high-frequency references, isolating command bandwidth and data coverage as dominant failure mechanisms.
Christian Wittke, Stephan Myschik, Oliver Niggemann
Jul 15, 2026cs.RO

IMMNet: Hybrid Fusion of Model-based and Data-driven Approaches for Maneuvering Target Tracking

Maneuvering target tracking in three-dimensional space remains a challenging problem due to complex motion dynamics and model mismatch. To address this, this paper proposes a hybrid model/data-driven algorithm named IMMNet, which integrates the interpretable structure of the interacting multiple model (IMM) algorithm with learnable neural components. Unlike end-to-end black-box methods, the proposed IMMNet algorithm not only can preserve the Bayesian inference mechanism that is essential for real-time radar applications, but also can adaptively learn motion patterns and noise characteristics from data. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed IMMNet algorithm consistently outperforms the existing algorithms across various scenarios, validating it as a robust, interpretable, and practical solution for maneuvering target tracking.
Yixuan Zhao, Chaoqun Yang, Lin Gao +2
Jul 11, 2026eess.SY

Fast Data-Driven Modeling of Hydraulic Clutch Control Pressure with Latch-State Classification and Gaussian Process Regression

This paper presents a data-driven method for modeling the pressure response of a hydraulic clutch control circuit. The system consists of a variable-force solenoid, accumulator, pressure regulator valve, and latch valve, and exhibits nonlinear behavior caused by hysteresis, latch transitions, and actuator dynamics. A baseline model using commanded current variables captured the general pressure response but failed to represent hysteresis and latch behavior accurately. The input vector was therefore extended with current derivative information, and several classifiers were tested to separate latch-related operating regimes before fitting Gaussian Process regression models to the resulting partitions. Nonlinear SVC and gradient boosting produced the highest latch-classification accuracy, and nonlinear SVC was selected for the final local-regression pipeline. The proposed approach was evaluated on unseen ramp-rate data and compared against a physics-based Amesim model. The machine-learning model reproduced the measured pressure response and hysteresis behavior more accurately than the physics-based simulation for the tested operating conditions. These results suggest that machine-learning plant models can complement physics-based hydraulic models during hardware development and controller calibration when representative test-stand data are available.
Yash Bagla, Jason Schneider
Jul 11, 2026cs.LG

Data-Driven Telecom Marketing Optimization: A Machine Learning-Based Churn Prediction and Customer Segmentation Framework

Customer churn is a major challenge for telecommunication companies, directly eroding revenue and long term customer relationships. Traditional retention programs rely on generic, not personalized incentives and lack the precision to identify high risk customers before they leave. This paper presents a data driven marketing optimization framework integrating machine learning based churn prediction, customer segmentation combining churn risk with customer value, and tailored, segment specific marketing and Return on Investment ROI strategies. Using the IBM Telco Customer Churn dataset with 7043 customers and 21 features, three gradient boosting ensembles, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, were trained and tuned via randomized search with stratified 5 fold cross validation, class weighting, and F1 score driven decision threshold optimization to counter a class imbalance of 73.4% versus 26.6%. CatBoost was selected as the deployment model, achieving 77.68% accuracy, an F1 score of 0.6366, a PR AUC of 0.6553, and a ROC AUC of 0.8403 on the held out test set. Customers were partitioned with K Means clustering, validated via the Elbow method and visualized with Principal Component Analysis, into High, Medium, and Low Value segments, cross tabulated against churn risk labels to define four actionable clusters. Segment specific retention, upsell, and engagement strategies were designed for each cluster, and a theoretical ROI and CLV framework quantifies the financial impact of the proposed interventions. The pipeline was operationalized in an interactive Streamlit web application allowing marketing teams to upload data, filter by segment, visualize churn drivers via SHAP, and download automated segment reports. Results confirm that combining predictive churn modeling with value aware segmentation yields more actionable and profitable marketing decisions than churn prediction alone.
Nada Ali, Lina Ahmed, Tahani Abdalla Attia Gasmalla
Jul 11, 2026math.OC

How much Data do We Need? Sequential Data Collection for Stochastic Programming

Data-driven optimization often requires collecting data to estimate uncertain model parameters before solving the underlying decision problem. In practice, however, data acquisition may incur non-negligible costs, making it critical to determine when to stop additional data collection. In this paper, we study an optimal stopping problem for sequential data collection in stochastic optimization under parameter uncertainty. We propose a benefit-driven stopping framework that balances information gain and sampling cost. We model the unknown distribution parameter within a Bayesian learning framework and update beliefs sequentially as new observations are collected. At each iteration, the decision maker evaluates the expected marginal benefit of additional data relative to the unit sampling cost and determines whether to continue sampling or stop and implement the optimization decision. Based on this framework, we develop several stopping policies. The proposed policies are evaluated through a newsvendor problem with exponentially distributed demand. Numerical experiments compare the policies with fixed-budget and hindsight benchmark strategies. The results show that benefit-driven stopping rules can substantially reduce unnecessary data collection while achieving near-optimal decision performance, demonstrating the effectiveness of adaptive stopping in data-driven optimization.
Xin Li, Juergen Branke, Xuan Vinh Doan
Jul 9, 2026eess.SP

DKDNet: Dual Knowledge and Data-Driven Network for Cross-Domain Automatic Modulation Classification

The dynamics of communication environments induce significant distribution shifts across domains, challenging the generalization of deep learning-based automatic modulation classification (AMC) models. While existing UDA methods alleviate this problem by aligning source and target features, they give limited consideration to modulation-specific structures that remain informative across domain conditions. In this paper, we consider signal prior knowledge, grounded in communication protocols and physical principles, as a potential way to enhance cross-domain representation learning. Given that different priors may vary in modulation discriminability, domain stability, and complementarity, this paper first analyzes five commonly adopted signal representations that instantiate different signal priors. From them, in-phase/quadrature (IQ), amplitude--phase (AP), and autocorrelation function (ACF) are selected as compact prior-guided inputs. Based on that, a dual knowledge and data-driven network (DKDNet) is proposed for cross-domain AMC. The multi-representation feature encoder (MRFE) and dynamic lightweight fusion unit (DLFU) are designed to achieve unified representation learning and adaptive feature fusion, and the resulting fused features are optimized with modulation classification and adversarial domain alignment objectives. Experiments on both simulated and public datasets validate the rationality of the prior selection and demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.
Shuang Wang, Chenxu Wang, Hantong Xing +3
Jul 7, 2026cs.AI

Synthetic Consumer Insight Generation with Large Language Models

Modern data-driven marketing relies on large amounts of consumer data, yet collecting such data can be costly, time-consuming, and difficult to scale. This research examines whether large language models (LLMs) can be used to generate synthetic consumer data for projective techniques, a set of methods designed to elicit consumer associations, emotions, wants, and needs. We test LLM-generated responses across multiple projective tasks, LLMs, prompting strategies, and temperature settings, and compare them with human responses from a primary research study on perceptions of city tourism destinations. Human and LLM responses were analyzed using linguistic measures, diversity and concentration metrics, topic models, and top-term analyses. The results show substantial overlap between human and LLM responses in broad topics and associations, but also important differences in style, linguistic structure, and the way diversity is generated. Recommendations are given on how to best utilize LLMs for generating synthetic consumer data, how model and prompt choices shape response quality, and on recognizing the limitations of LLM synthetic consumer data generation.
Stephen L. France, Pia. A. Albinsson
Jul 4, 2026eess.SP

Data-Driven Forward and Inverse Modeling of V-Beam Thermal Sensors

This paper presents a machine learning framework for data-driven inverse design of V-beam thermal sensors. The goal is to determine the optimal sensor geometry: beam inclination angle, beam length and beam width that achieves a target displacement under a given temperature. The design should also provide the geometry with minimum structure volume and minimum mechanical stress the sensor must support. This problem is ill-posed as for a given displacement there are multiple possible geometric configurations, causing direct regression methods to fail. We document a series of five exploratory trials that progressively revealed the nature of the problem culminating in a two-phase solution: a neural network forward model trained to map geometry and material constants to sensor responses, a gradient-descent inverse optimization over the frozen forward model, minimizing stress and volume simultaneously. The proposed pipeline utilizes a 3000-sample dataset and achieves a MAPE of 4.76% for predicting the displacement, more than 70% of predictions having MAPE of under 5%.
Tudor Bartha, Radu Chiorean, Adrian Groza
Jul 2, 2026cs.CL

Audio-Based Understanding of Audiobook Narration Appeal

Narration is central to the audiobook listening experience, shaping how listeners engage with and understand the content. This work explores how narration qualities shape an audiobook's appeal, noting that their effects can vary by genre, title, and audience. We extract vocal and acoustic features (e.g., tone, pace, loudness) from LibriVox using pre-trained audio models and analyse their relationship with consumption data (specifically, view-rate) and their interplay with genre and title. Despite limited consumption data, we find that acoustic information alone has a robust association with appeal, even after accounting for title effects. We further validate these findings using more nuanced proprietary engagement metrics. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic computational study linking narration qualities, genre, title, and audiobook consumption, highlighting the potential of data-driven insights to improve audiobook personalisation and narrator casting.
Shahar Elisha, Mariano Beguerisse-Díaz, Emmanouil Benetos
Jul 2, 2026eess.SY

Koopman operator theory: fundamentals, control, and applications

The Koopman operator has gained considerable attention due to its ability to provide a global linear representation of highly complex dynamical systems. The operator describes nonlinear dynamics in a linear way through the lens of real- or complex-valued observable functions. Recently proposed data-driven techniques, like extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD), its kernelized variant, and machine-learning methods, can be used to generate finite-dimensional approximations accompanied by finite-data error bounds. In this tutorial paper, we provide a concise introduction into Koopman operator theory and its use in systems and control. A particular focus is put on data-driven surrogate models, their extension to systems with inputs, and controller design using Koopman operator theory. Moreover, we demonstrate the key techniques, i.e., EDMD and Koopman MPC. To this end, we provide simulation studies including source code on GitHub to enable the interested reader to experience the Koopman operator in systems and control step by step.
Igor Mezić, Jorge Cortés, Karl Worthmann +2
Jul 2, 2026cs.AI

Profit-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Product Improvement: A Case Study of Manga Sales in Japan

Counterfactual explanation (CE) is widely used to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models and support data-driven decision-making based on model predictions. However, existing CE methods typically require two exogenously specified inputs: a desired output value (target) and a distance function that quantifies changes in explanatory variables. In regression settings, neither the validity of target specification nor the practical interpretation of the distance metric has been sufficiently addressed. Furthermore, most existing CE methods focus on altering predictions rather than optimizing a decision objective, even though real-world decision-making often requires explicit objective maximization. To address these limitations, we formulate CE as a profit maximization problem in management and marketing contexts and propose a framework termed profit-based counterfactual explanation (PBCE). PBCE eliminates the need for exogenous target specification by directly maximizing profit as the primary optimization objective. Concurrently, the distance term is reinterpreted as the cost of modifying product attributes, providing a clear and economically grounded interpretation.
Keita Kinjo, Takeshi Ebina
Jun 29, 2026cs.LG

Data-Driven Energy-Based Learning via Gibbs Measures on Hierarchical Structures

We introduce a data-driven probabilistic framework for learning systems based on Gibbs measures on hierarchical structures. Unlike standard empirical risk minimization, where a dataset is used to identify a single optimal parameter, our approach transforms the empirical loss function into an interaction potential defining an energy-based model. The resulting Gibbs distribution describes a family of equilibrium learning states generated by the data. We formulate the consistency conditions of the associated finite-volume distributions and derive nonlinear integral fixed-point equations whose solutions characterize the admissible learning states. These equations provide a rigorous connection between empirical loss landscapes and probabilistic inference on trees. For translation-invariant solutions, the problem reduces to the analysis of positive compact operators induced by data-dependent kernels, allowing us to establish existence and uniqueness conditions in the one-dimensional setting. Furthermore, we show that hierarchical learning systems may exhibit phase-transition phenomena: for certain empirical kernels on Cayley trees, multiple Gibbs measures emerge beyond a critical inverse temperature, corresponding to distinct equilibrium prediction regimes. Numerical experiments with non-separable kernels illustrate the appearance of multiple solution branches and demonstrate the coexistence of several data-induced learning states. Our results provide a new perspective on energy-based learning, where data do not merely determine an optimal model through minimization but define an entire probabilistic landscape of possible inference states.
L. U. Abdullaev, F. Herrera, U. A. Rozikov +1
Jun 29, 2026cs.RO

Data-Driven Modeling and Control for Tethered Space Systems with Koopman-Informed Graphs

Modeling tethered space systems is critical for advanced orbital operations. Flexible components such as tethers and space nets are integral to these systems but present significant control challenges due to their high dimensional, strongly coupled, and nonlinear dynamics. While data driven methods offer alternative modeling approaches, they frequently struggle with long term predictive stability and spatial generalization. To address this, we propose the Koopman Graph Dynamics (KGD) framework to learn the structural dynamics by integrating the global linear evolution of the Koopman operator with the local topological priors of Graph Neural Networks. Building upon this representation, we develop a KGD based Model Predictive Control strategy for tethered space systems. Subsequently, the ground experiments on flexible tether and space net demonstrate the high precision modeling capabilities of the proposed method. Crucially, the framework exhibits exceptional capacity for spatial transfer without retraining. Models trained exclusively on small configurations successfully predict and control significantly larger, unseen physical scales. Furthermore, the orbit simulations within a physics engine verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach for tethered space systems.
Ao Jin, Yifeng Ma, Panfeng Huang +1
Jun 28, 2026physics.flu-dyn

Kriging and neural network models for pressure losses across perforated plates

In this paper, two novel data-driven models based on kriging and neural networks (NN) are proposed to predict pressure losses across perforated plates with circular perforations in turbulent flows. The models are developed using two sets of experimental data available in the literature. The predictive performance of the proposed models is assessed and compared against widely used empirical formulae. It is found that the proposed models consistently outperform existing empirical models for most perforated plate configurations contained in the experimental datasets. Besides, the predicted pressure losses generally show good agreement with experimental measurements, demonstrating that data-driven approaches based on kriging and NN provide a feasible framework for modelling pressure losses across perforated plates. Overall, both approaches are promising, despite being trained on a relatively limited amount of experimental data, owing to the scarcity of measurements reported in the literature. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models in numerical simulations, two-dimensional channel flows are simulated using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations, in which the new pressure-loss models are implemented as a source term in the momentum equations. The RANS predictions are found to be in excellent agreement with the model predictions, confirming the suitability of the proposed approaches for practical computational fluid dynamics applications.
Shuai Li
Jun 26, 2026cs.LG

The Remittance Blueprint: Data-driven Intelligence for Sri Lanka

This study analyzes Sri Lankan migration and remittances over 32 years (1994-2025). Using a 384-month harmonized dataset, we apply exploratory data analysis, stationarity corrected time-series modeling (ADF, Johansen, VAR/VECM), and supervised learning. Results reveal remittance inflows are primarily driven by external macroeconomic variables, specifically exchange rate dynamics and global oil prices, rather than domestic indicators. Impulse response analysis confirms the asymmetric impact of currency depreciation and oil price shocks. Predictively, multivariate machine learning models outperform traditional univariate approaches; Ridge Regression achieves a 73.8% accuracy improvement over SARIMA (Annualized RMSE: USD 494.8 Mn). The optimized framework projects 2026 remittances at USD 9,001 million under stable conditions. These findings highlight the structural dependence of remittances on global economies, emphasizing the need for robust exchange rate policies, skilled migration, and formal financial channels to enhance long-term economic resilience.
Dhinanjaya Fernando, Dinura Ginige, Kalana Lakshan +6
Jun 26, 2026cs.SE

Reasoning Beyond Prediction: From Data-Driven to Causal Software Engineering

Software engineering is an intellectually demanding, creative discipline that juggles a web of interdependent tasks to design, build, and assure the quality of increasingly complex systems. As our expectations from software soar - with demands spanning AI-driven products, pervasively distributed and cloud-native architectures, and deeply embedded cyber-physical environments - its complexity steadily increases. In response, a new wave of co-engineering methods and tools, fueled by deep learning, has emerged to augment the process, enhancing automation and decision support. Yet, these advances remain far from delivering the kind of intelligent support that modern software development demands. We call for a new paradigm of human-machine cooperation: one where machines don't just automate routine tasks or predict from learned patterns, but actively amplify engineers' reasoning through the lens of causation. As software becomes smarter, a smarter support is needed.
Roberto Pietrantuono, Luca Giamattei, Stefano Russo
Jun 25, 2026cs.AI

Clinical Harness for Governable Medical AI Skill Ecosystems

Medical AI remains organized around isolated models, whereas care requires accountable capabilities that persist across time. We define clinical AI skills and propose the Clinical Harness, a runtime governance architecture that registers, orchestrates, constrains and monitors them. Using osteoporosis as an exemplar, we show how knowledge-driven, data-driven and physics-enhanced skills can support lifecycle care and provide a governed substrate for future medical agents.
Tianhan Xu, Lei Bao, Zhe Hu +2
Jun 24, 2026cs.AI

Data-driven Machine Learning Cannot Reach Symbolic-level Logical Reasoning -- The Limit of the Scaling Law

Sphere neural networks have achieved symbolic level syllogistic reasoning without training data, raising the question of where the limit of the scaling law for logical reasoning lies, i.e., whether data-driven machine learning systems can achieve the same level by increasing training data and training time. We show two methodological limitations that prevent supervised deep learning from reaching the symbolic-level syllogistic reasoning: (1) training data can not distinguish all 24 types of valid syllogistic reasoning; (2) end-to-end mapping from premises to conclusion introduces contradictory training targets between neural components for pattern recognition and logical reasoning. Beside theoretical analysis, we experimentally illustrate that Euler Net cannot achieve rigorous syllogistic reasoning. We further challenge the most recent ChatGPTs (GPT-5-nano and GPT-5) to determine the satisfiability of syllogistic statements in four surface forms (patterns): words, double words, simple symbols, and long random symbols, showing that surface forms affect the reasoning performance and that ChatGPT GPT-5 may reach 100% accuracy but still provide incorrect explanations. As empirical training processes are stopped after achieving 100% accuracy, we conclude that supervised machine learning systems will not attain the rigour of symbolic logical reasoning.
Tiansi Dong, Mateja Jamnik, Pietro Liò
Jun 24, 2026cs.DL

Data-Driven Evolution of Library and Information Science Research Methods (1990-2022): A Perspective Based on Fine-grained Method Entities

Since the 1990s, advancements in big data and information technology have increasingly driven data-centric research in the field of Library and Information Science (LIS). To assess the influence of this data-driven research paradigm on the LIS discipline, this study conducts a fine-grained analysis to uncover the evolutionary trends of research methods within the domain. Using academic papers from LIS published between 1990 and 2022, four key categories of data-driven method entities are automatically extracted: algorithms and models, data resources, software and tools, and metrics. Based on these entities, the study examines the evolution of LIS research methods from three dimensions: the characteristics of research method entities over time, their evolution within different research topics, and the evolutionary features of research method entities across various research methods. The findings highlight data resources as a pivotal driver of methodological evolution in LIS, revealing a cyclical pattern of "emergence-stability/practical application" in the development of research methods within the field.
Chengzhi Zhang, Yi Mao, Shuyu Peng
Jun 23, 2026cs.LG

LLM-ACES: Closed-Loop Discovery of Dynamical Systems with LLM-Guided Adaptive Search

Recovering governing Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) from data is a central challenge in modeling dynamical systems across scientific domains. Existing approaches cast discovery as a static inference problem over fixed datasets, assuming that the observed trajectories are sufficiently informative. However, dynamical systems evolve over large state spaces, and limited data can make multiple equations observationally indistinguishable, leading to identifiability gaps and the recovery of incorrect governing equations. To address this, we introduce LLM-ACES, or LLM-guided Active Closed-loop Equation Search, a closed-loop framework that jointly optimizes symbolic hypothesis construction and adaptive data acquisition. In LLM-ACES, a large language model (LLM) proposes operator priors that partition the large search space into distinct regions, within which candidate equations are fit to the observed data. The disagreement among these candidates guides the acquisition of informative trajectories, creating a feedback loop that iteratively refines both the hypothesis space and the discovered dynamics. On 122 ODE systems spanning ODEBench and ODEBase, LLM-ACES achieves the lowest median NMSE, outperforming state-of-the-art baselines by several orders of magnitude while achieving a high symbolic accuracy of 46.2% and 52.4%, respectively. Our analysis further shows that LLM-ACES is sample-efficient, achieving better performance with one-tenth the data. Furthermore, LLM-ACES's feedback-driven data acquisition makes it robust to noise and recovers the correct symbolic structure, while baselines introduce spurious terms that fit the data locally but obscure the true governing relationships.
Nikhil Abhyankar, Sha Li, Sanchit Kabra +3
Jun 23, 2026stat.ML

Automated Residual Plot Assessment With the R Package autovi and the Shiny Application autovi.web

Visual assessment of residual plots is a common approach for diagnosing linear models, but it relies on manual evaluation, which does not scale well and can lead to inconsistent decisions across analysts. The lineup protocol, which embeds the observed plot among null plots, can reduce subjectivity but requires even more human effort. In today's data-driven world, such tasks are well suited for automation. We present a new R package that uses a computer vision model to automate the evaluation of residual plots. An accompanying Shiny application is provided for ease of use. Given a sample of residuals, the model predicts a visual signal strength (VSS) and offers supporting information to help analysts assess model fit.
Weihao Li, Dianne Cook, Emi Tanaka +2
Jun 18, 2026cs.RO

SWAP: Symmetric Equivariant World-Model for Agile Robot Parkour

While latent world models enable the proactive predictions required for extreme parkour, their purely data-driven nature forces them to redundantly encode left-right symmetric interactions as independent patterns. This inflates the learning burden and hinders the capture of geometric regularities, restricting the latent space's efficiency for downstream policies. To address this, we propose SWAP, an end-to-end equivariant symmetric world model. This framework embeds symmetry directly into both the world model and the actor-critic networks. In real-world tests, the robot leaps across a 2.13 m gap and climbs a 1.63 m platform, breaking records for quadruped parkour. Furthermore, the framework exhibits robust geometric generalization to unseen mirrored terrains and exceptional zero-shot transferability across diverse outdoor environments. These results demonstrate that symmetry equivariance is an effective structural prior for pushing the physical boundaries of learned legged locomotion.
Kaixin Lan, Ze Wang, Hongyi Li +6
Jun 16, 2026cs.LG

A Survey on Data-Driven Models for Soil Moisture Regression and Classification

Soil Moisture (SM) modelling constitutes a complex spatiotemporal learning problem characterised by nonlinear environmental interactions, heterogeneous data sources, and limited ground observations. Physics-based approaches, such as water balance models, rely on explicit hydrological equations and high-quality inputs, but their computational cost and scalability limitations restrict large-scale deployment. Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) methods have emerged as flexible alternatives, enabling the extraction of empirical relationships between soil moisture and environmental variables with reduced modelling assumptions. This work presents a structured survey of AI-based models for soil moisture estimation and classification. Existing approaches are organized into five categories: (a) statistical time-series models, (b) geostatistical methods (c) classical machine learning (ML) models, (d) Deep Learning (DL) models and (e) Probabilistic/Bayesian methods. These models leverage historical soil moisture records, meteorological variables, vegetation indices, topography, soil characteristics, and geolocation data to perform regression or classification tasks.
Ilektra Tsimpidi, George Georgoulas, Vidya Sumathy +1
Jun 10, 2026cs.LG

Deep Unfolded Latent Optimally Partitioned-l2/l1 Networks for Data-driven Block-Sparse Recovery

The convex Latent Optimal Partition (LOP)-l2/l1 approach enables block-sparse signal recovery with unknown partitions but relies on manual hyperparameter tuning. Additionally, numerical instability in differentiating its proximal operator prevents its automatic parameter tuning via Deep Unfolding (DU). To address these limitations, we propose two architectures: a stable framework utilizing implicit differentiation and a flexible variant leveraging Deep Weight Factorization (DWF). The DWF-based approach also supports nonconvex smooth data fidelity terms. Numerical experiments demonstrate that DU-LOP-l2/l1 yields competitive performance and high resilience against impulsive noise.
Takanobu Furuhashi, Hidekata Hontani, Qibin Zhao +1
Jun 10, 2026cs.AI

When Do Data-Driven Systems Exhibit the Capability to Infer?

The European AI Act is the first comprehensive regulation of artificial intelligence (AI), setting out extensive obligations, particularly for so-called high-risk and general-purpose AI systems. A key distinguishing feature of AI systems under the AI Act is the capability to infer. Since the AI Act does not clearly define what inference is, there is a gray area for certain data-driven systems. A specific example is credit scoring systems, which are listed by Annex III of the AI Act. At the same time, however, these are often implemented using statistical models for which it is unclear whether they have the capability to infer and thus fall under the AI definition of the AI Act at all. Motivated by statistical learning theory, this work develops a framework for grading different levels of the capability to infer. Based on the AI Act and the Commission Guidelines on the definition of an artificial intelligence system, we analyze which levels constitute sufficient capability to infer within the meaning of the AI Act and where further regulatory clarity is needed. We illustrate the framework by creating two realistic credit scoring workflows and show whether and where inference occurs in them. Our analysis illustrates that not only individual models but the entire data processing workflow must be considered. It also shows that the involvement of human experts during development can have significant influence on the capability to infer. Code can be found at https://github.com/fraunhofer-iais/inference-framework-creditscorecards.
Maximilian Poretschkin, Tabea Naeven
Jun 9, 2026cs.LG

Data-Driven Dynamic Assortment in Online Platforms: Learning about Two Sides

We study a dynamic assortment problem on a two-sided service platform with incomplete information and heterogeneous customers in a discrete-time setting. In each period, a customer arrives seeking service, and the platform chooses an assortment of sellers to display. The customer then proposes a transaction to at most one seller in the assortment according to a multinomial logit choice model. After a fixed number of periods, sellers review the proposals they have received and each chooses at most one customer according to another multinomial logit choice model, after which the cycle repeats. A key challenge is that the platform does not know the choice-model parameters of either customers or sellers in advance. To our knowledge, this is the first study of a dynamic assortment problem in which both sides' choice parameters are unknown. We develop a data-driven algorithm that learns these parameters while optimizing the platform's objective over time. We evaluate performance using regret, which measures revenue loss relative to a clairvoyant benchmark that knows all parameters and customer arrivals in advance. We show that the algorithm's worst-case regret grows polylogarithmically over time, and we derive a matching lower bound, establishing its rate optimality.
Rahul Roy, Nur Sunar, Jayashankar M. Swaminathan
Jun 9, 2026cs.LG

Data-Driven Runway and Taxiway Exits Prediction of Landing Aircraft: A Case Study at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport

Airport surface operations increasingly constrain performance at high-throughput hubs. This study examines arrival taxi-in decisions at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (KATL) and proposes a two-stage, data-driven decision aid that mirrors controller workflow. Stage I predicts the runway exit selected by an arriving aircraft. Stage II predicts whether, given that exit, the aircraft will cross the active departure runway at a designated point or use the end-around taxiway. Models are trained using ASDE-X surface trajectories, aircraft characteristics, ramp destinations, short-horizon traffic rates, and weather across multiple look-back windows. We benchmark nine classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost, and evaluate accuracy, macro-F1, precision-recall behavior, confusion matrices, Brier score, and Expected Calibration Error. Across east and west flows, XGBoost and LightGBM outperform Random Forest. Stage I achieves 0.86-0.89 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.40-0.50, while Stage II achieves 0.70-0.74 accuracy with macro-F1 scores of 0.28-0.55. Feature-importance analysis shows that approach speed is the main driver of exit choice. Departure rate, crossing rate, ramp destination, and, for west flow, the selected exit are the strongest predictors of crossing versus end-around routing. Minority classes remain harder to predict because of feature-space overlap, as shown by t-SNE and UMAP analyses. The proposed framework supports controller situational awareness through calibrated, explainable predictions while preserving human responsibility for final routing decisions.
Alex Porcayo, Yutian Pang, Maria Thomas +1
Jun 9, 2026cs.AI

Learning Splitting Heuristics for Parallel String Solvers

String constraint solvers are crucial for reasoning about string-manipulating programs. However, many practical string constraints are undecidable, and real-world applications often present complex constraints that challenge current solvers. The rise of multi-core architectures offers an opportunity for parallel solving. A key parallel solving method is \emph{cube-and-conquer}, in which the quality of splitting heuristics is critical to effectively dividing the search space. Unfortunately, manually designing the heuristics is labor-intensive, and handcrafted heuristics are often sub-optimal. This paper introduces a data-driven approach to automatically generating splitting heuristics. We frame the problem of selecting a splitting atom as a learning task, using features from input formulas and dynamic data from solver execution. We implement this approach in two popular string solvers, Z3seq and Z3str4, demonstrating that the learned heuristics outperform manually designed ones in the number of solved formulas and the average solving time.
Chenhao Gao, Peisen Yao
Jun 8, 2026cs.LG

From inverse problems to neural operators: prediction, mechanism, and generalization of data-driven models

Scientists have historically relied on mathematical models based on differential equations to relate system inputs -- forces, fluxes, or heat sources -- to outputs, such as displacement, velocity, concentration, and temperature. These models rely on deep domain knowledge to determine the form of the governing differential equation, which is then calibrated with data by solving an inverse problem. In recent years, the field of Scientific Machine Learning has introduced a variety of alternative modeling strategies for physical systems. A method called Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics learns the governing equation as a sparse linear combination of terms in a user-defined library. Neural Ordinary Differential Equations construct the governing equation by taking in the state and its derivatives at the input layer of a neural network. Entirely foregoing the modeling framework of differential equations, neural operators directly learn a non-linear mapping between the system inputs and outputs. From inverse problems to neural operators, all of these modeling strategies can be conceptualized as data-driven machinery to predict a system's response over a range of inputs. It is then natural to wonder how exactly these various strategies relate to each other, and whether they can be neatly taxonomized. Drawing from the philosophical literature on scientific models, we argue that many model types have a common structure, differing only in the assumed model class of the input-output relation they define. Connecting to philosophical ideas on mechanism, and arguing that data from physical systems arises from solutions to parsimonious differential equations, we propose that only certain models are capable of mechanism discovery, and thus generalization. Our analysis is intended to unite apparently disparate modeling strategies and provide insight into their appropriate use cases.
Conor Rowan
Jun 7, 2026cs.LG

Physics-Guided Dual Decoding and Spectral Supervision for Global 3D Hydrometeor Prediction

While global data-driven models excel at predicting continuous atmospheric variables, three-dimensional hydrometeor forecasting remains challenging due to the zero-inflated, long-tailed distributions of these variables. Standard deep learning optimization often yields overly smooth forecasts, attenuating extreme events and spatial textures. We propose PredHydro-Net, a physics-guided dual-decoding framework that mitigates this smoothing. To resolve multi-variable optimization conflicts, it employs a decoupled architecture where macroscopic thermodynamic and dynamic fields unidirectionally modulate hydrometeor generation. By integrating wavelet-based frequency decoupling, spectral amplitude matching, and adversarial training, the model achieves a favorable trade-off between quantitative accuracy and spatial fidelity. In a 72-h global evaluation, PredHydro-Net outperforms both spatiotemporal deep learning baselines (Earthformer and PredRNNv2) and the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) in extreme-event detection and spectral representation. Furthermore, it demonstrates strong climatological consistency with Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite retrievals. The model reasonably reproduces the three-dimensional cloud structures in extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Ian. Feature attribution confirms its dependence on physical precursors such as relative humidity and wind convergence, offering a robust, physics-informed approach to long-tailed atmospheric prediction.
Dandan Chen, Yaqiang Wang
Jun 6, 2026cs.AI

Integrating Deep Learning Demand Forecasting with Multi-Objective Optimization for Circular Coffee Supply Chains: A Data-Driven Framework for Cost, Emissions, and Freshness Management

The coffee supply chain is one of the most complex agri-food networks, marked by geographically dispersed production, multi-tier coordination, and high sensitivity to quality and freshness. While sustainability and digitalization have gained attention, demand forecasting, optimization, and traceability are often treated separately. This study presents a two-phase integrated framework. First, a hybrid CNN-LSTM model is used for demand forecasting. On the public Coffee Chain Sales dataset with chronological 70/15/15 splitting, the model achieves MAE of 22.87 and R^2 of 0.90, outperforming the best deep learning benchmark by ~12% and classical methods by over 30%. In the second phase, the forecasted demand feeds a tri-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model that jointly minimizes cost, minimizes carbon emissions, and maximizes product freshness in a multi-period, multimodal, closed-loop supply chain with circular recovery. Freshness is modeled via exponential decay based on inventory age. Using the epsilon-constraint method, 25 Pareto solutions are obtained. Sensitivity and policy analyses show that balanced sustainability policies can reduce emissions by 22.4% with only a 9.9% cost increase while maintaining near-optimal freshness. Keywords: Coffee supply chain; Deep learning; Demand forecasting; Multi-objective optimization; Circular economy; CNN-LSTM; Mixed-integer linear programming.
Gerçek Budak, Faraz Gholamzadeh Gharehgheshlaghi, Melika Barjesteh Vaezi +1
Jun 4, 2026cs.RO

IDDMBSE: Integrating Data-Driven and Model-Based Systems Engineering for Trusted Autonomous Cyber-Physical Systems

Autonomous cyber-physical systems (CPS) sit at the intersection of Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) and data-driven Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence (ML/AI), yet no integrated Systems Engineering (SE) methodology natively spans both. We address this gap with IDDMBSE, an Integrated Data-Driven and Model-Based Systems Engineering methodology that extends the rigorous MBSE V-process with a data-driven loop at every step, anchored in SysML, the autonomy stack, and a hybrid model-based plus data-driven trade-off architecture. We instantiate IDDMBSE as an interoperable, open-source tool chain: PERFECT, which maps SysML system architectures to executable ROS autonomy stacks for scalable performance evaluation; TRADES-X, which decomposes design-space exploration into a model-based optimization stage followed by a data-driven evaluation stage; and VERITAS, which combines formal, data-driven, and runtime verification into a single assurance workflow. We demonstrate IDDMBSE on a Trusted Autonomous Ground Robot across its development lifecycle, spanning sensor-suite selection, risk-sensitive path planning, behavior-tree task verification, conformal-prediction-based robust perception, and assured multi-robot coordination, all exercised in a contested-terrain Isaac Sim test range that we release with the tool chain. We close by sketching how IDDMBSE is being re-formulated on SysML v2 / KerML foundations to enable language-native composability and tighter ML/AI integration.
John S. Baras, Sai Sandeep Damera, Ryan Matheu +2
Jun 4, 2026cs.AI

Integrating Mechanistic and Data-Driven Models for Neurological Disorders through Differentiable Programming

Advances in computational modeling, neuroimaging, and artificial intelligence are revolutionizing the modeling of neurological disorders for improved diagnostics, prognosis, and treatment planning. Mechanistic models provide valuable scientific insight into the disorders, but in practice they are often simplified with assumptions or computationally expensive and slow to solve. However, while purely data driven approaches provide speed and scalability, they require large, high quality data to train and generally suffer from interpretability and generalization issues. This perspective paper presents a structured overview of hybrid modeling strategies, which combine deep learning models with physics based solvers, and are categorized into parallel, series, and parallel-series architectures. Three main approaches that have been emphasized are residual modeling for missing or incomplete physics, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) for continuous time dynamics approximation, and solver in the loop that accelerates traditional solvers with neural approximations. These hybrid models integrate the governing differential equation based formulations and deep learning to characterize the evolution of neurological disorders, and promise advanced personalized neurological modeling. In addition, the study explores and proposes different hybrid configurations to improve diagnosis accuracy, predict disease progression, and inform treatment strategies across a range of neurological disorders. These capabilities outperform standalone mechanistic or purely data driven approaches, making hybrid modeling a powerful tool, especially in applications involving modeling the progression and treatment responses in neurological conditions such as brain tumors, Alzheimer's disease, and stroke.
Shah Pallav Dhanendrakumar, Saikat Pal, Sitikantha Roy
Jun 1, 2026cs.LG

Hybrid Neural Ordinary Differential Equations for Data-Efficient Polymerization Modeling with Incomplete Kinetics

Accurate prediction of polymerization dynamics is essential for process design, control, and optimization. Yet, purely mechanistic models require labor-intensive parameterization of partially characterized kinetics, while purely data-driven models demand large, diverse datasets that are costly to obtain, particularly in early-design stages. We propose a hybrid Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (NODE) framework for data-efficient modeling of free-radical polymerization. Using batch polymerization of methyl methacrylate (MMA) as a case study, the mechanistic mass balances are retained explicitly, and only the partially-characterized effective radical concentration governing monomer consumption is learned from data through a neural network surrogate, while established reactions such as initiator decomposition, propagation, and termination remain physically modeled. The hybrid NODE is evaluated against a discrete-time feedforward neural network and a purely data-driven NODE under sparse data conditions, with models trained on as few as ten measurements under both regular and irregular sampling. The hybrid NODE consistently achieves lower prediction errors and more physically consistent extrapolations than both purely data-driven baselines. In a generalization scenario with noisy data and unseen operating conditions, the hybrid NODE achieves an RMSE of 0.013, compared to 0.31 for the data-driven NODE and 0.68 for the discrete-time model, demonstrating that learning only a closure term rather than the full dynamics is sufficient for reliable prediction under limited data availability.
Marah Almanasreh, Alexander Mitsos, Eike Cramer
May 29, 2026cs.NE

Developing a novel Comorbidities Index for predicting 10-year mortality in Prostate Cancer patients: A computational data-driven approach

The Charlson Comorbidities Index (CCI) is a weighted additive index widely used to estimate ten-year mortality risk, but its original weights may not reflect contemporary prognoses. This limitation is critical in Prostate Cancer (PCa), where radical treatment is recommended only for patients with a life expectancy of at least ten years. For candidates eligible for Radical Prostatectomy (RP), accurate estimation of ten-year other-cause mortality is essential to balance oncological benefit against competing risks and avoid overtreatment. We propose a data-driven framework to derive a comorbidity index tailored to PCa patients considered for RP. Using a retrospective single-institution cohort, we apply Population-Based Bio-Inspired Algorithms (PBBIAs) to recalibrate comorbidity weights and evolve alternative symbolic formulations optimized for ten-year survival discrimination. We compared six optimization strategies, including symbolic regression approaches based on Genetic Programming (GP), population-based metaheuristics, clinically validated baselines, and survival prediction models. Results show that GA, FST-PSO, and SLIM outperform both the original CCI and the PCCI, particularly when PCa-specific variables are included, improving the Concordance Index by up to 0.1. GPLearn yields compact and interpretable models with competitive performance. Overall, the proposed approach provides an updated and interpretable tool to improve patient selection for RP.
Davide Farinati, Francesco Barletta, Paolo Zaurito +6
May 29, 2026cs.LG

TabCausal: Pretraining Across Causal Environments for Tabular Causal Discovery

Causal discovery aims to recover directed causal relations from observational and interventional data, providing a basis for mechanistic understanding and reliable decision-making. Causal discovery foundation models (CDFMs) seek to amortize this problem by mapping a dataset directly to a causal graph in a single forward pass, avoiding per-dataset testing, search, or optimization. However, existing CDFMs remain limited, often failing to consistently match strong classical methods, and we find that a key bottleneck is how causal pretraining tasks are constructed. Based on this observation, we propose TabCausal, a data-driven CDFM trained with broad causal pretraining over diverse graph priors, structural mechanisms, noise models, dimensions, sample sizes, and intervention regimes. A dynamic task construction strategy composes these causal environments into varied discovery tasks, enabling more transferable structural learning from observational and mixed-interventional data. On large-scale synthetic benchmarks, TabCausal achieves better macro-averaged performance than a diverse set of causal discovery baselines. To further bridge abstract synthetic generators and realistic causal reasoning scenarios, we introduce a protocol-guided and LLM-audited semantic causal environment benchmark, where domain-grounded SCMs generate interpretable observational and interventional datasets for out-of-distribution analysis. Across both synthetic and semantic environments, TabCausal demonstrates robust structure recovery, especially under interventional evidence, highlighting broad causal pretraining as a key ingredient for transferable amortized causal discovery.
Zi-Rong Li, Si-Yang Liu, Tian-Zuo Wang +1
May 28, 2026cs.HC

Rationalize: Shared Semantic Reasoning for Human-AI Alignment

We introduce Rationalize, a role-pair framework for shared semantic reasoning between humans and AI models in data-driven sensemaking. Building on ideas in human-machine teaming and critical thinking, we conceptualize human-AI interaction as a series of complementary role pairs (Explorer-Guide, Investigator-Informant, Teacher-Student, Judge-Advocate) operating in a shared reasoning space. In this space, human analysts and AI models (such as LLMs) make purposes, questions, assumptions, evidence, inferences, and implications explicit, facilitating alignment not only at the output level but at the level of rationalization of intent and action by each side. We relate these role pairs to the bidirectional human-AI alignment framework, illustrating how "aligning AI to humans" and "aligning humans to AI" differ by role, and sketch a collaborative research agenda for alignment design and assessment using element-level and role-specific approaches.
Aritra Dasgupta, Naga Datha Saikiran Battula, Avina Nakarmi +3
May 28, 2026eess.SY

BuilDyn: Excitation-Driven Data Generation for Building Thermal Dynamics Modeling and Control

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used for data-driven modeling of buildings to enable downstream tasks such as fault detection and diagnosis, and energy-efficient control. While recent work improves generalization across building characteristics, weather, and occupancy, generalization also depends on sufficient exploration of the control-driven system state space. Existing real-world datasets and simulation environments predominantly reflect stationary operation under fixed control policies, resulting in limited excitation and reduced robustness to unseen operating conditions. This paper introduces BuilDyn, a package based on BuilDa that enables customizable excitation strategies for control-oriented data generation. BuilDyn further supports sampling from representative building distributions and provides a Python interface for easy integration into machine learning pipelines. We demonstrate the benefits of BuilDyn by comparing the performance of data-driven ML models trained on non-excited and excited data for one building. With BuilDyn, we hope to advance scalable control-oriented modeling and support future directions such as transfer learning and building-specific foundation models.
Felix Koch, Thomas Krug, Fabian Raisch +2
May 27, 2026cs.RO

Learning and Adaptation in Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing Bead Geometry Control

Robotics Wire Arc Additive Manufacturing (WAAM) is governed by complex and nonlinear process dynamics coupling thermal field to the build geometry. The process may be regarded as a multi-input/multi-output dynamical system with welding torch speed and wire feed rate as inputs and weld bead deposition height and width as outputs. In this paper, we use the input/output data to learn a data-driven model and use it for weld planning and control. We show that a simple recurrent neural network architecture and one-step-ahead predictive control can improve the process performance in terms of height and width consistency. To account for the changing thermal conditions during the printing process, we update the learning model using prediction error from the previous layer. This adaptation step further improves the prediction accuracy and controller performance. Experiments on a robotic WAAM testbed with integrated line-scanner feedback significant improvements in height and width consistency compared to constant input and static model baselines. The proposed learning and adaptation framework provides a practical pathway toward robust, data-driven regulation of additive manufacturing processes.
Chen-Lung Lu, John Wen
May 26, 2026cs.LG

Faster Thermal Profiling of a Lunar Rover with Machine Learning Adapted Finite Difference Model

Autonomous space systems operating in extreme thermal environments require accurate and efficient thermal modeling to support both pre-mission system design and onboard autonomy. For lunar rovers, large temperature gradients, radiative heat transfer, and variable surface conditions make reliable thermal prediction especially challenging. High-fidelity physics-based simulations provide accurate results but are computationally expensive, while simplified models and lookup-table approach often lack sufficient accuracy. Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) offers a promising alternative by combining data-driven models with embedded physical knowledge. This paper presents a PIML framework for thermal analysis of a simplified lunar rover with internal heat sources, where machine learning enables environment-adaptive coarse meshing. The proposed architecture integrates a transfer neural network (TNN) that adaptively determines 3D finite-difference nodalization based on thermal loads and initial conditions, enabling more accurate coarse-mesh calculations. A differentiable finite-difference thermal simulator is embedded within the framework to enforce physical consistency and support efficient training, while an upscaling layer reconstructs high-resolution temperature fields from the coarse-grid solution. The proposed PIML approach is evaluated against high-fidelity fine-mesh simulations, low-fidelity fixed coarse-mesh models, and a purely data-driven artificial neural network (ANN). Results show that the PIML framework improves prediction accuracy by 50% and 39% relative to the coarse-mesh physics model and ANN model, respectively, while maintaining physically consistent thermal distributions. Computationally, the framework is also 3x faster than high-fidelity simulations, demonstrating an effective balance between accuracy and efficiency for thermal modeling of lunar rover systems.
Samuel Weber, Zaki Hasnain, Souma Chowdhury
May 26, 2026cs.CR

Control Physiology: An Agent-Based Model of FAIR-CAM Dynamics

Security risk analysis typically treats control effectiveness as a static input, yet controls degrade through configuration drift, depend on monitoring systems that may themselves be degraded, and compete for finite remediation budgets. The FAIR Controls Analytics Model (FAIR-CAM) provides the theoretical framework for these dynamics but has so far remained theoretical. We present the first agent-based model to operationalize the core FAIR-CAM dynamics, making control physiology computationally observable, and release the implementation as open source. The simulation implements eight agent types, a multiplicative defense-in-depth susceptibility formula, a three-source variance model, budget-constrained remediation, and a narrative causation engine that produces a complete causal trace for every loss event. In a hospital ransomware scenario (N=1,000 iterations), three organizational dynamics emerge that static analysis cannot represent. First, emergent operational efficacy diverges from the analytical FAIR-CAM formula by approximately 17 percent, driven by correlated extrinsic variance; the divergence grows linearly with extrinsic frequency and vanishes under purely intrinsic drift. Second, a sharp queueing regime transition in the remediation pipeline approximately 2.8x expected loss when budget falls below a scenario-specific threshold (5-10 engineer-hours/month). Third, cascading monitoring failures propagate through the VMC topology: a single degraded VMC silently compounds undetected variance across the controls it manages. These dynamics are structural properties of the FAIR-CAM architecture and should generalize beyond the specific scenario studied.
Jack Jones, Laura Voicu
May 23, 2026cs.LG

Balancing Fairness, Privacy, and Accuracy: A Multitask Adversarial Framework for Centralized Data-Driven Systems

The integration of fairness and privacy in centralized data-driven applications is critical, especially as these systems increasingly influence sectors with significant societal impact. Current methods rarely address privacy, fairness, and accuracy together, which can potentially compromise ethical standards and privacy regulations. However, balancing these three objectives is quite challenging since each of objective often imposes conflicting requirements on the design and training of models, making it difficult to optimize one without compromising the others. This paper introduces a novel multitask adversarial model that treats fairness and privacy as integral objectives rather than afterthoughts, and learns a latent representation that hides sensitive attributes while preserving essential task-related information. Our approach dynamically balances fairness with accuracy and privacy through an optimized cost function with minimal performance loss even under strict conditions. Extensive testing on diverse datasets shows the ability of our model to achieve high standards of fairness and privacy without significant sacrifice to accuracy. Benchmarking against state-of-the-art privacy and fairness standards shows that our method enhances the robustness of privacy, fairness, and accuracy optimization, proving its adaptability across various datasets.
Imesh Ekanayake, Elham Naghizade, Jeffrey Chan