Minimax

We study smooth strongly convex--strongly concave minimax optimization with general nonlinear coupling in the deterministic unconstrained setting. We propose a pure single-loop damped extragradient method with fixed parameters and two new full-gradient evaluations per iteration after one initialization query. The method uses an auxiliary feedback recursion and requires no inner solves, accuracy schedules, or staged restarts. We establish last-iterate linear convergence and show that reducing the squared Euclidean distance to the saddle point to an $\varepsilon$ fraction of its initial value requires $O(\sqrt{κ_xκ_y}\log(2κ_xκ_y/\varepsilon))$ full-gradient queries, where $κ_x=L/μ_x$ and $κ_y=L/μ_y$. This bound attains the optimal condition-number order up to logarithmic factors through fixed explicit updates. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

In this paper, we present a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) quantization method based on activation entropy. Although quantization reduces memory and computational costs, it can substantially degrade performance. In particular, performance decline is pronounced in quantized MoE models, where individual experts have a small number of parameters that are sensitive to low-bit representation. Considering that MoE operates as an ensemble model with collaborative contributions from routed experts, a significant performance decline of a particular expert due to quantization can harm model performance. Therefore, we propose Colla-Q, a bit-allocation framework to maintain balanced performance across experts through an activation-entropy-based bit-width allocation algorithm. This approach encourages each expert to operate collaboratively in the quantized model, thereby 1) improving the overall MoE performance and 2) reducing the dependence on the calibration dataset. Since uniformly adjusting each expert's performance facilitates robustness and stability of the MoE model, the proposed MoE quantization method can generalize more consistently across different calibration datasets. Our code is available at: https://github.com/mmai-laboratory/Colla_Q

A learner probes at most $k$ of $n$ arms each round, receives the maximum of their rewards in $[0,1]$, and competes with the best fixed arm. When does the probing advantage pay for learning? We determine two minimax laws. Under independent stochastic rewards with winner feedback (the maximum and a winning label), or on arbitrary fixed sequences given a single signed contrast between block maxima, the minimax regret has order $Φ_{n,k}(T)=\min\{\frac{n-k}{n}T,\frac{n-k}{k}\}$, $2\le k<n$. Under winner feedback, both arbitrary joint i.i.d. rewards and fixed sequences have minimax regret of order $R_{n,k}(T)=\frac{n-k}{n}\min\{T,\frac{n+T}{k},\sqrt{\frac{nT}{k}}\}$. Both laws have universal constants and anytime upper bounds. The first reduces regret to a pure coverage cost: same-round contrasts absorb the stability cost, and independence permits exact resampling whose gains fund sample advancement. The second adds a learning cost that becomes comparable to coverage at horizon $n$; beyond $nk$, numerical maxima improve over labels alone. The lower bound allows every adaptive action size.

We study distributed one-dimensional mean estimation under a 1-bit communication constraint. Each agent observes one sample, drawn independently from an unknown distribution, and returns a single bit in response to a query $Q: \mathbb{R}\to\{0,1\}$ chosen by a central learner. The distribution has mean in $[-λ,λ]$ and $k$-th central moment at most $σ^k$, for a fixed $k>1$. The order-optimal two-stage protocol of Lau and Scarlett uses responses from the first batch to choose the second-batch queries, motivating the question of whether this single round of interaction is necessary. We answer this negatively: for every $k>1$, a non-adaptive protocol attains the adaptive 1-bit minimax rate (and concurrent works reached the same conclusion via different strategies). We further determine the minimax sample complexity among non-adaptive 1-bit estimators when every one-set $Q^{-1}(1)$ is restricted to a union of at most $s$ intervals. Relative to unrestricted non-adaptive 1-bit querying, this constraint adds a term of order $(λσ/(s\varepsilon^2))\log(1/δ)$, giving the full tradeoff between sample complexity and interval complexity to within $k$-dependent constant factors. As a corollary, we identify, order-wise, the minimum interval budget needed to retain the unrestricted 1-bit minimax sample rate.

We characterize the sharp structure-agnostic minimax risk for coefficient estimation in the partial linear model when the outcome and treatment nuisances are learned by two distinct black-box learners, which resolves the open problem in double machine learning posed by Gu (2025). For each nuisance $q\in\{μ,π\}$, we characterize the available learner by an approximation-error budget $a_q$ and a stochastic-error budget $s_q$, with the latter controlled through localized Rademacher complexity. Writing $\mathcal E_n$ for the minimax mean-squared error, we show that $$\mathcal E_n\asymp1\wedge\left\{\frac1n+\left(a_μa_π+\min\left\{a_πs_μ+s_π^2,\,a_μs_π+s_μ^2\right\}\right)^2\right\}.$$ The main new ingredient is a novel lower bound for the general two-learner problem. Our proof constructs four finite-mixture testing experiments using orthogonal code functions. Across these experiments, the hidden perturbations are placed outside both learner classes, outside only the treatment learner class, outside only the outcome learner class, or inside both learner classes. These four configurations capture, respectively, the interaction between the two approximation errors, the two asymmetric interactions between one learner's approximation error and the other learner's learning error, and the joint estimation difficulty of learning both nuisances. Combining the four resulting lower bounds yields the displayed rate, which matches the latest upper bound in Gu (2026). Our result shows that standard double machine learning can overstate the intrinsic difficulty of target estimation and provides a target-specific principle for learner selection: approximation error and stochastic complexity must be jointly balanced across the two nuisance learners rather than optimized separately.

A system often has to act long before it learns whether the act worked: a recommender sees a click in seconds and a purchase in days. With $K$ actions and a delay of $d$ rounds, the best rate known for this setting is $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{(K+d)T})$ over $T$ rounds, so a longer menu is always more expensive to learn from. It need not be: if the outcome depends on the action only through the state it produced, then one late outcome informs every action that could have produced the observed state, and the price is set by how many genuinely different states the actions produce rather than by how many actions there are. We measure this using an effective dimension $v_t$ between $1$ and the number of states, and prove $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{(d+1)V\log K})$ for a rotating algorithm and $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{V^{-}}+\sqrt{dT})$ for the single-copy algorithm used in practice, for any budget fixed in advance; merging similar states lowers the price further, at an explicit bias. Even when given the exact losses from $d$ rounds ago, no algorithm escapes $Ω(\sqrt{dE\min\{1+\log J,T/d\}})$, where $J$ counts the drifting directions and $E$ bounds how far losses move while the learner waits. On generated data, the state channel cuts regret by up to 79 percent against action-level weighting and, on the funnel family, by 32 to 68 percent against a tuned minimax-optimal method.

Watermarking has been proposed as a way to identify synthetic samples in estimation settings where no metadata is available to distinguish them from real samples, but its precise effects remain unexplored. In the absence of a distinguishing mechanism, it has been shown that adding synthetic samples significantly reduces the marginal efficacy of new real samples. In this work, we study the minimax loss of such recursive discrete distribution estimation in the presence of watermarks in contrast to the unassisted and oracle-assisted losses. When the fraction of real samples vanishes asymptotically, we provide a lower bound that shows that it is impossible to improve performance by adding watermarks unless the false negative rate of detection also vanishes. Additionally, we show that in most regimes, the worst-case losses of a sequence of simple deterministic estimators match the corresponding lower bounds up to constants. Finally, we propose masking, a randomization procedure that narrows the gap in the remaining regimes to a Jensen gap. We conjecture that a tighter lower bound argument can close this gap.

We determine the minimax cumulative log-loss regret of a finite-alphabet, exogenously driven source with genuinely infinite input memory: independent Rademacher inputs $(U_t)$ are observed sequentially and the next binary mark has logit $\sum_{j\ge1}θ_jU_{t+1-j}$, the unknown coefficients obeying a summable envelope $|θ_j|\le r_j$, $\sum_jr_j\le B$. At horizon $T$, lag $j$ can move the logit by at most $r_j$ and is exercised in only $n_{T,j}=(T-j+1)_+$ rounds, and the two limitations combine into the sum $Γ_T(r)=\sum_{j\le T}\log(1+n_{T,j}r_j^{2})$. One coordinate-localised Bayesian mixture achieves $R_T(r)\le CΓ_T(r)$ for \emph{every} summable envelope with $C$ universal. Our main result is a matching nonasymptotic converse for the canonical exponential and polynomial envelopes; its new ingredients are a modular finite-sample information bound for logistic experiments with an exogenous random design, and a conditioning estimate for the overlapping Toeplitz lag matrix obtained by exhibiting each off-diagonal Gram sum as a sum of independent Rademacher variables indexed by the edges of a forest, needing neither local asymptotic normality nor any spectral theorem for random Toeplitz matrices. So $Γ_T(r)$ is the minimax regret scale here, giving $Θ(α^{-1}\log^{2}T)$ for $r_j=Ae^{-αj}$ and $Θ(T^{1/(2s)})$ for $r_j=Aj^{-s}$, $s>1$ --- the latter without the extra $(\log T)^{1-1/(2s)}$ factor any window-truncation analysis pays. We also show memory decay cannot determine regret, and that a profile-scaled online Newton predictor attains $O_B(Γ_T(r))$ in polynomial time per round.

The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier remains a standard choice for categorical data, yet its widely used smoothing rules, such as Laplace, Lidstone, Krichevsky-Trofimov, and the $m$-estimate, all prescribe a fixed smoothing strength that ignores feature cardinality, sample size, and class imbalance, inducing a non-vanishing bias on modern high-cardinality tabular data. We propose hierarchical empirical-Bayes Naive Bayes (HEB-NB), in which each class-feature conditional probability is smoothed by a Dirichlet prior whose concentration is learned data-adaptively via Type-II maximum likelihood, enabling principled information sharing across classes while retaining closed-form inference. We further introduce HEB average one-dependence estimators (HEB-AODE), showing that the adaptive smoothing transfers cleanly to structural relaxations of NB. Theoretically, we establish a non-asymptotic $\ell_1$ error bound for HEB-NB matching the empirical-distribution minimax rate plus a vanishing data-adaptive bias, together with a matching Laplace-tight lower bound that yields a finite-sample, risk-level strict separation from Laplace. We further derive a plug-in excess Bayes-risk bound via total-variation tensorization and a population top-1 expected calibration error (ECE) corollary. Empirically, across 31 UCI and OpenML benchmarks, HEB-NB attains the best average Friedman rank on probabilistic metrics, with up to 22.1% log-loss reductions on high-cardinality datasets and consistent improvements of HEB-AODE over vanilla AODE. Combining HEB-NB with mutual-information weighting reduces top-1 ECE by 41%-70%, demonstrating substantial gains in probabilistic accuracy and calibration.

In overparameterised classification, training data can be linearly separable even when the underlying distribution is not. In this setting, gradient descent (GD) on the logistic loss diverges in norm while converging in direction to a max-margin interpolating classifier, whose implicit bias can be statistically suboptimal. In this work, we show that early stopping can overcome this suboptimality: in a Gaussian mixture model with label-flipping noise, GD stopped at an appropriate oracle time achieves minimax-optimal excess zero-one risk for covariance spectra with fast and continuous decay, including polynomial and exponential spectral decays. Our analysis combines a sharp upper bound for the early-stopped iterate with a matching statistical lower bound over arbitrary classifiers, yielding optimal rates that are validated by experiments. A central technical contribution is a new calibration result that converts excess logistic risk into excess zero-one risk; it handles the model misspecification induced by the label-flipping noise, and removes the square-root rate in standard bounds. We also establish a lower bound for linear interpolators, showing that interpolation can require exponentially more samples than early stopping to achieve the same excess risk.

Sequential decision-making in real-world applications often involves uncertainty about the environment's model. Uncertain Markov decision processes (UMDPs) represent the possible environments as a set of MDPs with shared states and actions but potentially different transition probabilities and rewards. Optimizing a single policy across all possible MDPs may sacrifice performance, while preparing an individually optimized policy for every MDP may violate operational, regulatory, or interpretability constraints on the number of policies that can be prepared and deployed. We consider settings in which model uncertainty is resolved shortly before execution, allowing the most suitable policy to be selected from a limited set prepared in advance. We introduce $k$-adaptable policy synthesis, which optimizes such a set of $k$ policies under a minimax-regret objective. We prove that the problem is NP-hard and develop KAPS, an exact nested branch-and-bound algorithm with problem-specific bounds and heuristics. KAPS jointly optimizes which MDPs share a policy and the policies themselves. Experiments across various UMDP benchmarks show that the largest reduction in regret consistently occurs when increasing from one to two policies. In the single-policy setting, KAPS is competitive with existing methods in solution quality and proves optimality substantially more often.

Active feature acquisition (AFA) asks which unobserved feature to measure next for each test instance under a budget. Greedy rules are easy to train but can overlook context features whose value is realized only through later acquisitions, while reinforcement-learning and generative approaches introduce difficult optimization or conditional-density estimation. We introduce \method, a deployable, supervised alternative that learns a separate candidate-conditioned risk-to-go function for every remaining budget. Starting from the one-step terminal classification risk, the functions are fitted backward with Bellman targets; inference greedily minimizes the learned terminal risk using only observed values, the mask, candidate identity, and remaining budget. A controlled non-myopic benchmark shows the expected mechanism: at budgets two and three, \method improves accuracy over its one-step ablation by $4.84\pm2.17$ and $4.39\pm1.10$ percentage points (mean $\pm$ standard error over five seeds). On Fashion-MNIST with 20 candidate pixels, it improves accuracy at every nontrivial reported budget on average, including $10.20\pm0.74$ points at four acquisitions; its mean paired gain across budgets $\{2,4,8,12,16\}$ is $3.50\pm0.37$ points. A three-seed MiniBooNE study is mixed at small budgets but positive at 8 and 16 acquisitions, identifying a current boundary rather than supporting a universal claim. These results establish a reproducible mechanism-level case for direct Bellman risk regression and delimit the experiments still needed for state-of-the-art comparison.

Competitive analysis is central to the study of online algorithms, but upper bounds are often highly problem-specific. We develop a more unifying methodology via the minimax viewpoint. Guided by Yao's principle, we reduce worst-case competitive analysis to Bayesian online design under an arbitrary correlated prior over arrival sequences. For such a prior, let $X^*$ be the hindsight-optimal fractional solution for the realized instance, and let $X^{(t)}=\mathbb E[X^*\mid \mathcal F_t]$ be its posterior process. Our guiding rule is posterior matching: at each time $t$, choose the feasible online action that tracks the current posterior $X^{(t)}$ as closely as the online constraints permit. We show that this single principle yields optimal or near-optimal guarantees for several classical online fractional problems, including set cover, load balancing, matching and more general resource-allocation problems, recovering or improving state-of-the-art bounds in these settings with norm/concave objectives. Via known rounding reductions, it also yields randomized integral guarantees for weighted paging, MTS on star metrics, and ski-rental. At a technical level, our analysis reduces competitive guarantees to key probabilistic inequalities for the vector martingales generated by the posterior of the offline optimum. The resulting framework gives a reusable route from Bayesian online design under arbitrary correlated priors to information-theoretic worst-case competitive guarantees.

We study expected improvement (EI) for minimizing a deterministic function $f$ in the RKHS $\mathcal H_k$ of a continuous positive-semidefinite kernel $k$ on a nonempty compact set $\mathcal X\subset\mathbb R^d$. Function values are observed exactly, and EI is computed from a fixed zero-mean Gaussian-process model with covariance $σ^2k$, $σ>0$. A weak-EI policy queries a point whose EI is at least a fixed positive fraction of its maximum. We introduce a notion of sequential separation radius relating ranked selected-point innovation norms to Kolmogorov widths, drawing on greedy approximation. Standard power-function estimates from scattered-data approximation and a finite-budget regret argument yield the rates. After $N$ post-initial queries, every weak-EI policy has simple regret $O(N^{-ν/d})$ for isotropic Matérn kernels of smoothness $ν>0$ and $O(\exp[-c_1\min\{N,N^{1/d}\log(eN)\}])$ for the isotropic squared-exponential kernel, with $c_1>0$. For $d=1$, the sharper bound $O(\exp[-c_2N\log(eN)])$ holds for exact EI, with $c_2>0$. These bounds are uniform over each fixed RKHS ball. If $\mathcal X$ has nonempty interior and $B>0$, the exact EI policy is minimax-rate optimal over the RKHS ball of radius $B$ for Matérn kernels, even among randomized strategies whose final recommendation need not be a query point. For the squared-exponential kernel, it is minimax-rate optimal up to constants in the exponent among deterministic methods whose final recommendation may be any point of $\mathcal X$.

Adversarial training can improve the robustness of predictive models to bounded perturbations, often at the cost of statistical efficiency. We study this trade-off in kernel regression over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). It is shown that, under squared loss, adversarial training in RKHS introduces a term involving the product of the function norm with the mean absolute value of the response noise, which we call the \textit{noise premium}. Our analysis shows that the noise premium makes the prediction error of adversarial training converge strictly more slowly than the nonparametric minimax benchmark even after balancing approximation and estimation errors. Moreover, for a fixed perturbation budget, once the budget exceeds a certain threshold, the solution to adversarial training collapses to the zero function. To mitigate these effects of the noise premium, we propose noise-debiased adversarial training. The resulting noise-debiased estimator can attain the minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor for the prediction error, raises the collapse threshold, and admits an explicit bound on the increase in adversarial loss. Numerical experiments on synthetic and real data support the theoretical findings and validate the effectiveness of the proposed noise-debiased method.

We study online convex optimization with one unbiased stochastic subgradient per round and noise having a finite $p$-th central moment, where $p\in(1,2]$ is unknown. For a bounded convex domain of diameter $D$, subgradients bounded by $G$, noise scale $σ$, and comparator path length $P_T$, let $Λ_T=1+P_T/D$. A single algorithm, using none of $G,σ,p,P_T$, attains expected dynamic regret $O_p\left(\min\{GD\sqrt{TΛ_T}+σDT^{1/p}Λ_T^{(p-1)/p},\,GDT\}\right)$ against every fixed comparator sequence. Restarted AdaGrad experts produce the noise-path exponent $(p-1)/p$, and a prior favoring longer restart intervals removes horizon-dependent logarithmic overhead. We give an explicit bound uniform in $p$; its logarithm-free form has noise coefficient $O(1+\log(p/(p-1)))$, while the static-regret constant is universal. The analysis requires only marginal noise moments and permits dependent errors. Complete pathwise proofs retain both the expert-loss range and the gradient energies preceding comparator movement. Matching lower bounds hold on every bounded convex domain of positive diameter, under the same gradient-only information model. Together with a path-budget-tuned upper bound, they characterize the minimax rate with universal constants, including its linear-regret saturation.

This work presents a comprehensive analysis and design of global sensitivity-based input shapers for a 3D Unmanned Aerial Vehicle-payload system, emphasizing robustness against uncertainties in payload mass and rope length. The proposed approach also leverages the Shapley value concept in controller design to systematically account for uncertainties, thereby reducing the controller's sensitivity to unknown parameters. To validate the effectiveness of the methodology, numerical simulations are conducted, comparing the proposed controller against non-robust, robust, and minimax designs. The results demonstrate that the standard global sensitivity or Shapley-based input shapers improve performance and offer a promising framework for uncertainty-aware control in aerial payload transport.

Sparse-support uncertainty is usually quantified by treating the dictionary as known, an assumption that can produce overconfident, label-dependent conclusions when the dictionary is learned from latent sparse mixtures. Near collisions of coherent atoms, a test signal may identify the active physical group even though the training data cannot distinguish the physical rays within it. We develop inference for active physical rays, unit atoms modulo sign, after latent dictionary learning. In a fixed-dimensional Gaussian train-test experiment, we retain all dictionaries compatible with a robust training-moment region, profile the test representation over them, and project surviving configurations onto a permutation-invariant support space. The resulting confidence correspondence can report cross-sheet inconclusiveness, group resolution with child ambiguity, or fine-support resolution. We characterize both its statistical cost and decision-theoretic benefit. Residual block orientation first affects the latent training density at cubic order, yielding information of order $s^6$, where $s$ is the within-block collision scale. The correspondence provides high-probability-over-training conditional test coverage, with resolution governed separately by parent detectability, test-time support separation, and learned-dictionary orientation. In the resolved fixed-shell regime, its projective Hausdorff diameter contracts at the minimax-optimal rate $s \wedge (\sqrt{N}s^2)^{-1}$, up to constants. A restricted-task theorem further determines when coefficient asymmetry allows test replication to supplement training information and when calibration uncertainty remains irreducible. The framework thus yields honest, resolution-adaptive support statements and guides the allocation of training versus test measurements.

In bandit problems, standard regret-minimizing algorithms treat exploration as an amortized cost, which can expose early participants to unfair ex-ante losses in settings such as clinical trials. Recent work addresses this by evaluating the sequence of per-round expected rewards through the generalized $p$-mean, interpolating between utilitarian welfare ($p=1$), Nash welfare ($p\to0$), and Rawlsian fairness ($p\to-\infty$). Although tight guarantees are known for $p\ge0$, the strictly fair regime $q=-p>0$ remains unresolved because negative-power means are dominated by the smallest per-round rewards. For $σ$-sub-Gaussian rewards with nonnegative means, the best prior algorithm relied on uniform early exploration and achieved regret $O(k^{(q+1)/2}/\sqrt{T})$, while the only general lower bound was the classical $Ω(σ\sqrt{k/T})$. Thus it was unclear whether the extra dependence on $k$ was intrinsic to strict fairness or an artifact of uniform exploration. We close this gap by identifying the exact polynomial price of strict fairness. Using a needle-in-haystack construction, we prove an algorithm-independent lower bound $Ω(σ\sqrt{k^{\max(1,q)}/T})$; for $q>1$, this shows that the penalty $k^{q/2}$ is information-theoretically unavoidable. We then introduce \textsf{UCB-HARE} (Harmonic Anchored Rank Exploration), which replaces uniform exploration with an inverse-weighted harmonic rank schedule protected by a certified positive-mean anchor. Its regret is $\widetilde{O}(σ\sqrt{k^{\max(1,q)}/T})$, matching the lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments on synthetic instances confirm that \textsf{UCB-HARE} improves over uniform-exploration baselines, with gains increasing as $q$ grows.

Adversarial team games (ATGs) with asymmetric information, such as adversarial path-finding, goal search, and reachability games on graphs, require strategies that are robust to hidden opponent types, such as a hidden goal flag, and to deception. Under asymmetric information, deception is seen as strategic shifts in the type distribution such that the omniscient opponent can collude with Nature and condition its play on the observed type. Existing risk-neutral solution concepts, such as Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE), are sensitive to distribution shifts, while distributionally robust approaches provide guarantees only within a prescribed ambiguity set. To address these limitations, we introduce Probabilistically Robust Minimax-Regret Equilibrium (PR-MRE), a novel equilibrium concept that combines the distribution-free robustness of minimax-regret reasoning with probabilistic information from a nominal type distribution. PR-MRE minimizes worst-case regret over a high-confidence subset of the type space, providing protection against strategic redistribution of probability mass while avoiding the conservatism of fully distribution-free approaches. We show that, for normal-form Bayesian games, PR-MRE can be formulated as a robust bilinear program and derive a tractable semidefinite relaxation. We then adapt this relaxation into a novel meta-solver within a robust double-oracle framework, PRMRE-PSRO, enabling population-based learning of approximate PR-MRE strategies via deep reinforcement learning best responses. Experiments on graph-structured adversarial team games demonstrate that PR-MRE discovers strategies with substantially improved worst-case performance across hidden types compared to risk-neutral equilibrium solutions, resulting in more robust behavior under strategic distribution shifts.

Large language models increasingly provide labels, evaluations, and feedback for tasks specified in natural language. When a specification admits multiple readings but the supervision channel does not reveal which is operative, additional labels reduce sampling error without resolving the resulting identification problem. We introduce Natural Language PAC (NL-PAC), a framework that uses a fixed model's thresholded decoding law to define admissible labels and candidate targets. The probability that multiple labels are admissible equals the diameter of the pointwise-admissible target class, and under target-blind supervision every learner incurs worst-case risk of at least half this diameter, at every sample size; the exact randomized minimax risk over this class is attained by a data-independent strategy. Finite-sample confidence bounds make these quantities certifiable from held-out unlabeled inputs. In a frozen Qwen~2.5--3B audit, one prespecified prompt yields a positive model-relative certificate, whereas a paraphrase and exact-rule controls yield zero. A held-out bridge audit finds that supplied candidate reading clauses fail the admissibility condition needed to transfer the certificate to coherent readings. The guarantee is specific to the audited model, prompt, threshold, and input distribution; extending it to human interpretations requires external validation.

Occupancy ratios correct distribution shift in offline reinforcement learning and are central to off-policy evaluation. Existing primal-dual and minimax methods typically estimate these ratios by enforcing occupancy-balance moments over a critic class. We propose fitted occupancy-ratio evaluation (FORE), a fitted fixed-point method that characterizes the discounted occupancy ratio through an adjoint Bellman recursion. At each iteration, FORE solves a single-level density-ratio objective on one-step-transition data, thereby projecting the adjoint Bellman image onto a log-ratio class in Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence. Unlike analyses of fitted Q-evaluation, which typically require value-function realizability together with Bellman completeness or projected-operator stability, our central approximation condition is just realizability of the discounted occupancy ratio itself. Under this condition, the population KL-projected recursion contracts in relative entropy toward the true ratio by virtue of the adjoint Bellman operator being a KL-contraction. For the empirical recursion, we establish finite-sample regret bounds that yield convergence in KL up to log-ratio approximation error and a statistical error governed by the complexity of the ratio hypothesis class. The fitted ratio supports direct value estimation by reward reweighting, occupancy-weighted fitted Q-evaluation, and doubly robust estimation that combines the fitted ratio with a fitted Q-function. Together, these results identify discounted occupancy-ratio realizability as a sufficient condition for offline policy evaluation without any completeness assumptions.

Visual Place Recognition (VPR) in lifelong deployment requires continuous adaptation to new environments without catastrophic forgetting. In this paper, we propose SLAM, a Structured and Localized Analytic Manifold adaptation framework. Our framework elegantly unifies uncertainty-aware smoothing via Unscented transformation, topological space partitioning through a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), and $H_\infty$ robust bound optimization into a singular, unified closed-form analytical recursion. Exhaustive ablation studies demonstrate that while the synergistic combination of uncertainty smoothing and localized mapping (U+G configuration) achieves the state-of-the-art nominal accuracy of 27.5%, the full deployment of the $H_\infty$ bound does not require an architectural split; rather, it introduces a mathematically guaranteed minimax robust bound. This formulation enables the system to seamlessly modulate the intrinsic trade-off between nominal placement precision and worst-case disturbance attenuation through a single regularization parameter.

When two companies bid to buy the same target, no one knows exactly what the target is worth. Each bidder pays for due diligence: costly, imperfect homework that sharpens its own private estimate before it bids. How much of that homework is worth buying? We build a simple computer model of the bidding contest and let it teach itself to bid well by playing against itself, the way a game engine learns chess. The economic question, how much diligence pays for itself, and the computational question, when the contest becomes too complex to solve exactly, are both controlled by a single thing: how many pieces of private information a bidder carries. Our main finding is that the right amount of diligence is modest and finite. It falls as diligence gets more expensive, and it falls further when both sides are doing their homework, because competition erodes the value of knowing more. We also test a recent claim from AI research: that simple, general self-play methods can rival the specialized, expensive algorithms usually built for games like these. Running on an ordinary laptop with no costly frontier AI, we find the simple methods are the best of the self-learning approaches, though purpose-built exact methods still win whenever the game is small enough to solve outright. The simple methods earn their keep only once the game grows too large to solve exactly, which is the regime real deals live in, and there we show they still find strong bidding strategies. The contribution is threefold: a cheap, reproducible way to study deal-making under uncertainty; a concrete, model-based answer to how much due diligence is worth buying; and evidence about when lightweight, general-purpose AI is good enough to replace specialized methods. We release all the games, code, and experiments.

Many two-player zero-sum games admit not a unique Nash equilibrium but a convex set of them: a polytope of profiles that all share the minimax value V* yet prescribe different behaviour. Standard solvers each converge to some equilibrium and are treated as interchangeable. We ask whether they instead select different members of the Nash set, systematically as a function of the algorithm rather than the seed. Using a tabular, exactly solvable testbed of six games with analytically known Nash sets -- including a two-dimensional Nash polytope and Kuhn poker -- we find that (i) selection is determined by the algorithm, not the seed, but families differ only on asymmetric Nash sets; (ii) regularized last-iterate methods (R-NaD, magnetic mirror descent) select the maximum-entropy member, the information projection of their uniform reference onto the Nash set -- exactly on the 2-D polytope and at 99.7% of maximum entropy in Kuhn -- while regret-averaging methods (CFR, CFR+, fictitious play) drift to a lower-entropy face; we confirm this on a randomized 180-game ensemble, where R-NaD attains the maximum-entropy member in 100% of converged games while CFR+ sits strictly below it in 94% (paired Wilcoxon p < 10^-27); (iii) the selected member has downstream consequences against sub-optimal opponents that scale with sequential/hidden-information structure but stay bounded -- in Kuhn the max-entropy member is a strictly better hedge, whereas on the matrix games the members differ without either dominating. We also report two negative results correcting common intuitions: removing CFR's positive-orthant (max(R,0)) projection does not eliminate boundary drift; and R-NaD's selection is anchor-following, not initialization-independent. We state the maximum-entropy / I-projection characterization as a strongly data-supported conjecture, checked throughout against analytic ground truth.

Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is usually conducted under a single probability measure. However, in practice, the available evidence often pins the measure down only to a set. Consequently, under a set of probability measures, VOI requires different formulations. First, we explicate a rule-specific VOI that fixes a decision rule for acting under imprecision (such as Gamma-maximin) and measures what the information is worth to a decision maker who uses that rule. Second, we derive a fixed-measure envelope that evaluates the classical VOI functional over all admissible precise measures. We formalize this distinction and explicate its consequences for the expected perfect, partial, and sample information. The expected value of perfect information is concave over the credal set. Hence, when the set is generated by finitely many measures, its lower envelope endpoint is obtained exactly from the generators, while its upper endpoint may be interior and is computed by a finite linear program. The Gamma-maximin value, in contrast, can exceed the entire envelope, so a rule-specific value is not recovered from the envelope's endpoints. A continuity bound limits how much the VOI can change as the measure varies, and we identify when the partial- and sample-information endpoints can still be obtained from the generators. Because the single-measure VOI must itself be estimated, the procedure we give combines standard estimators for it with a search over the credal set. By using a worked decision problem, we show how the two quantities separate conclusions that hold across every admissible measure from conclusions that depend on one unidentified choice of measure.

Pervasive data contamination -- stemming from measurement errors, outliers, or adversarial corruption -- has motivated the development of robust statistical methods. In this context, we propose a two-stage Adversarial Contamination-resistant Iterative Hard Thresholding (AC-IHT) algorithm for high-dimensional regression with contamination. Our nonconvex algorithm achieves minimax near-optimal (up to logarithmic terms) estimation by iteratively updating the coefficient vector and the contamination vector with different thresholding scales. We further demonstrate that our AC-IHT estimator is signal-adaptive: under proper signal conditions, it adaptively attains a sharper estimation rate and more accurate support recovery. Moreover, it enjoys the strong oracle property, laying a theoretical foundation for asymptotic inference. Numerical experiments confirm its superior finite-sample performance. Finally, we discuss theoretical extensions of the proposed procedure to generalized linear models and to heavy-tailed noise settings.

Foundation models are often used as fixed black-box predictors for downstream tasks with limited labeled data, but their predictions may be biased and unsafe to trust blindly. We study this setting through black-box assisted nonparametric regression: a learner observes labeled samples and can query a fixed predictor $f_0$, while the target $f^*$ is close to $f_0$ in $L_2(P_X)$ up to an unknown radius $δ$. We give a finite-sample minimax characterization showing a phase transition at $δ_c(n) \asymp n^{-β/(2β+d)}$, with leading risk $\min\{δ^2, n^{-2β/(2β+d)}\}$. We then analyze a Safe Residual Estimator: it learns a correction around $f_0$, initializes the residual head at zero so the initial predictor equals $f_0$, and uses holdout selection to revert to $f_0$ when the learned correction is not supported by validation data. Here, "safe" means avoiding negative transfer, i.e., performing worse than the black-box predictor alone. The estimator matches the leading minimax term up to an additive validation-selection cost. Synthetic regression experiments verify the predicted phase transition, while CIFAR-100 with CLIP and AG News with Qwen3-8B provide practice-facing evidence that the same residual-correction tradeoff is useful beyond the formal squared-loss regression setting.

We study PAC learning in tabular discounted Markov decision processes with exogenous i.i.d. contexts, with discount factor $γ$, finite state space $\mathcal X$, action space $\mathcal A$, and context space $\mathcal Z$. At each time step, a context is drawn independently from an unknown distribution $μ$ and revealed before the agent acts. This context may affect both rewards and transitions, while remaining uncontrolled by the agent. Depending on the regime, the learner has access either to a sampling oracle for $μ$, to a sampling oracle for the transition kernel conditioned on state-context-action tuples, or to both. Oracles can be accessed before and during policy execution. The sample complexity is measured by a couple $(n,m)$, where $n$ is the number of calls to the sampling oracles before execution and $m$ is the number of calls to the sampling oracles during execution. When rewards and transitions are known and only the context distribution $μ$ is sampled, we give a variance-reduced algorithm that solves policy evaluation (PE), best-value estimation (BVE), and best-policy extraction (BPE) with $\left(\widetilde O\left(1/((1-γ)^3\varepsilon^2)\right), 0 \right)$ sample complexity. The rate is independent of $|\mathcal Z|$ and minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. As a corollary, we also obtain tight rates in the case of one-step perfect look-ahead, improving upon the existing guarantees. In the fully unknown regime, where both $μ$ and P must be learned, we show that PE remains $|\mathcal Z|$-free, with matching upper and lower bounds $\bigl(\widetilde O(|\mathcal X|/((1-γ)^3\varepsilon^2)),\, \widetilde O(1/((1-γ)^2\varepsilon^2))\bigr)$.

Minimax risk and regret are expectation-based criteria and do not capture rare but consequential failures. To address this concern, we develop a $δ$-explicit minimax-quantile theory for interactive statistical decision making (ISDM). We first provide structural relations between minimax quantiles, lower minimax quantiles, and minimax risk. This includes a quantile-to-expectation conversion and an equivalence between strict and lower minimax quantiles outside a countable set of confidence levels. We then derive two converse tools for ISDM: a high-probability interactive Fano's method and a high-probability interactive Le Cam's method. Then, we show that mutual-information (MI) privacy can be handled in the same framework by restricting the admissible decision class. For coordinatewise Gaussian privatization, we derive a two-point template that isolates the privacy-induced variance inflation. We instantiate this template for Gaussian mean estimation, and use the same two-point strategy directly for two-armed Gaussian bandits. We then derive a minimax quantile lower bound for the $K$-armed Gaussian bandit problem, showing that the interactive Fano method captures the exploration cost over multiple possible best arms. The resulting lower bounds are explicit in the confidence level $δ$ and in the privacy budget for the private problems. They yield $\log(1/δ)/n$ scaling for squared-error Gaussian mean estimation, $\sqrt{T\log(1/δ)}$ scaling for two-armed bounded-mean Gaussian bandits, and $\sqrt{KT\log(1/δ)}$-type scaling for the $K$-armed bandits, with privacy appearing through a Gaussian variance-inflation factor for the private problems.

A model is multicalibrated on a collection of group weights $G$ if it is calibrated -- i.e. unbiased even conditional on its prediction -- not just overall, but also after reweighting contexts by each $g \in G$. It is a useful property for many downstream applications and is a basic desideratum of trustworthy machine learning. Before this work, all predictors known to attain the minimax-optimal $\widetilde O(\varepsilon^{-3})$ sample complexity rate for $\varepsilon$-multicalibration were randomized, while deterministic predictors were known only with substantially worse sample complexity. Whether randomization is necessary for optimal sample complexity in multicalibration was explicitly asked by [CLNR26] and implicitly in several prior works. We resolve this open problem by giving a minimax-optimal multicalibration algorithm that outputs a deterministic predictor. We then generalize the algorithm to produce optimal deterministic predictors that satisfy outcome indistinguishability (OI) with respect to finite or finitely covered collections of tests. As an application, this also gives deterministic omnipredictors and panpredictors with optimal sample complexity, resolving open problems posed by [OKK25] and [BHHLZ25].

We study a \emph{max-risk} objective for active learning in a multi-group mean estimation $d$-armed bandits: a learner adaptively allocates a budget of $T$ samples across $d$ groups to minimize the worst-case uncertainty index $\max_{k\in[d]}σ_k^2/n_k$, where $σ_k$ is the standard deviation of the distribution of arm $d$, and $n_k$ is the number of times arm $d$ is sampled. We develop a local minimax framework and prove the first general lower bound for this objective, valid for any finite-variance hypothesis class. The bound separates difficulty into three orthogonal factors: a \emph{budget} term, a \emph{heteroscedasticity} index measuring how unevenly the uncertainty is spread across arms, and a model-dependent complexity measure, the \emph{Variance Local Curvature} ($\mathrm{VLC}$), which captures how much information a local change of variance creates inside the hypothesis class. For smooth classes, the $\mathrm{VLC}$ is a reparametrization of a variance--Fisher information, with closed-form values for common families. Benchmarking against the strongest available upper bound shows near-optimality up to logarithmic factors in broad regimes, and pinpoints a systematic gap in highly heterogeneous instances. Our proof introduces two key ingredients: a loss-induced $\ell_1$ geometry on the decision space, and a representation-based instance generator that reduces hard-instance construction to an explicit random matrix calculation.

I discuss some quantitative representations of Promise Theory for processes involving autonomous agents. Agent models are common in software systems, machine learning, and biology, for example, but may also apply to physics and other forms of engineering. I describe how Bayesian probability and information theoretic optimization, including Active Inference, may be incorporated with promise semantics -- as well as how Promise Theory supplements solutions, helping to avoid probability's pitfalls, which include non-local coordination, calibrating, and normalizing probabilistic computations. The role of boundary conditions in constraining allowed states and selecting decision thresholds is a form of promise, and agent alignment provides a scalable definition of intent. Autonomous agents may congeal into swarms with superagent characteristics by trying to minimize their information, despite uncertainty that works to maximize it. The use of Promise Theory involves some research challenges as well as stylistic preferences.

We prove a variance-aware pointwise majorizing-measure theorem for centered Gaussian processes. Classical generic chaining characterizes the scalar quantity $\mathbb E\sup_{x\in T}X_x$; the theorem here gives a simultaneous high-probability envelope for the entire field. For an ambient prior $μ$, the envelope at $x$ is governed by a pointwise Fernique-Talagrand functional $$Φ_μ(x):=\int_0^{4σ(x)}\sqrt{\log\frac{1}{μ(B_d(x,\varepsilon))}}\,d\varepsilon,$$ together with the corresponding Gaussian tail term. The theorem provides a reusable field-level refinement of classical generic chaining and a Gaussian-process counterpart of pointwise empirical-process bounds for deep neural networks. We also record a Bayesian algorithmic lower envelope from the interactive Fano/data-processing principle. For a known prior $π$, an observation channel, and a concrete estimator $\widehat t(Y)$, the lower bound is expressed through the exact ghost small-ball mass $\mathbb E_{Y\sim Q}π(B_d(\widehat t(Y),Δ))$, rather than a worst-case covering number. In Gaussian location experiments, comparison decoders convert Bayes location error into lower bounds on decision-aligned Gaussian ranges. We then construct an elementary example separating the usual Fano relaxation, the Bayesian algorithmic lower envelope, the pointwise Gaussian envelope, and the full-class minimax risk. Together, these results show that algorithmic lower bounds provide local-geometric validations of pointwise complexity for fixed estimators in overparameterized ambient classes, precisely in regimes where classical minimax theory becomes either too coarse or oracle-dependent. This separation can also be recast in minimax language as penalty-range information relaxation, highlighting an important question of algorithmic robustness for classical high-dimensional models and regularized algorithms.

Computational models of epilepsy promise patient-specific treatment design, but most optimization workflows still search for parameters that perform well on average. In neuromodulation, this is a weak target: a protocol that improves the mean response can still fail in the patient whose network is least tolerant to stimulation. We present a literature-guided minimax pipeline that couples PubMed-scale hypothesis extraction, The Virtual Brain (TVB) Epileptor simulations, and large-language-model-guided black-box optimization. The optimizer proposes either intrinsic model-control parameters or clinically interpretable external-stimulation protocols; TVB evaluates each proposal across sampled virtual patients; and the objective maximizes worst-case reward, defined as the negative variance of simulated seizure activity. In the intrinsic model-control experiment, the best archived parameter set improved worst-case reward from -0.5285 to -0.3182, a 39.8% gain over baseline. The clinical-style external-stimulation search produced a much smaller worst-case improvement (1.7%), and a 20-patient virtual cohort showed no aggregate benefit (p=0.9019), despite a 55% responder rate and a positive temporal-lobe subgroup signal. The study should be read as an in silico proof of concept for robust, literature-aware neurostimulation design, not as clinical evidence.

We study fixed-confidence best-action identification (BAI) in stochastic minimax trees. This problem is increasingly relevant in modern AI planning, where deep minimax search and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) with language model long rollouts face a fundamental tradeoff: heuristic evaluations are cheap but biased, while accurate rollouts are reliable but prohibitively expensive. We propose 2FFS, a two-fidelity tree-search algorithm that brings multi-fidelity flat bandit ideas into trees. The algorithm combines minimax-style fast expansion with MCTS-style stochastic sampling, adaptively deciding when to exploit cheap biased evaluations and when to invoke expensive accurate evaluations for local certification. We prove fixed-confidence correctness, establish finite stopping for exact identification, and give a polynomial-depth cost upper bound for general-depth trees. Across numerical stochastic-tree experiments, 2FFS uses substantially fewer samples and computational operations comparing to existing BAI-MCTS baseline.

We present improved bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These include minimax bounds in expectation and high-probability tail bounds. We resolve some of the open questions posed in Kontorovich and Painsky (JMLR, 2025) -- including a fully empirical version of the tightest risk bound they presented and identifying the form of the worst-case extremal distribution. Encouraging empirical results are reported as well.

We study the transfer of rewards learned using inverse reinforcement learning from expert demonstrations in one environment to reinforcement learning in a new, different environment. This arises naturally when demonstrations are collected in a controlled environment. We formulate the problem as a joint system of Bellman equations across the source and target environments and develop minimax estimators for the target soft-$q$-function. Whereas a sequential solution approach first estimates the source reward and then plugs it into the target control problem, a coupled approach solves the source and target system of equations jointly. We show that, in contrast to the sequential approach, the coupled approach removes the first-order influence of source Bellman residual error. We characterize the local behavior of each approach, develop finite-sample soft-$q$-function error bounds, and prove regret guarantees for the resulting soft-control policy. An empirical investigation using a sepsis simulator validates the theoretical comparison.

We introduce the MiniMax-M2 series, a family of Mixture-of-Experts language models built around the principle that mini activations can unleash maximum real-world intelligence. The flagship M2 contains 229.9B total parameters with only 9.8B activated per token. Designed end-to-end for agentic deployment, the M2 series rests on three components: (i) agent-driven data pipelines producing large-scale, verifiable trajectories across agentic coding and agentic cowork, each grounded in an executable workspace and an artifact-aligned reward; (ii) Forge, a scalable agent-native RL system that adapts to long-horizon agent trajectories, paired with windowed-FIFO scheduling, prefix-tree merging, inference optimization, and a clean training-inference-agent decoupling that supports both white-box and black-box agents; (iii) the latest M2.7 checkpoint takes an early step toward self-evolution -- autonomously debugging training runs and modifying its own scaffold. Across M2 through M2.7, this combination translates a mini-activation footprint into frontier-tier performance on agentic coding, deep search, office-task, and reasoning benchmarks.

We study the mean-squared error of $k$-fold cross-validation as a risk estimator, with particular emphasis on how its accuracy depends on the number of folds $k$. Despite the widespread use of cross-validation, principled guidance for choosing $k$ is largely absent, mainly due to the complex dependence between fold-wise error estimates. To obtain sharp and interpretable results, we focus on the majority algorithm in binary classification, a minimal yet nontrivial empirical risk minimization procedure. We provide a fine-grained analysis of its cross-validation behavior, showing that even this simple algorithm exhibits subtle and delicate phenomena for which existing theory provides loose and even vacuous bounds. Leveraging this analysis, we introduce a minimax framework for cross-validation risk estimation and prove that no empirical risk minimization algorithm can achieve an $O(1/n)$ minimax mean-squared error when the number of folds grows with the number of samples $n$; instead, a lower bound of order $Ω(\sqrt{k}/n)$ is unavoidable. Our results reveal fundamental limitations of cross-validation as a data-reuse strategy, clarify gaps and inaccuracies in prior theoretical work, and position the majority algorithm as a natural benchmark that any tight analysis of cross-validation should be able to explain.

We study reinforcement learning for episodic Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) whose transitions are modelled by a multinomial logistic (MNL) model. Existing algorithms for MNL mixture MDPs yield a regret of $\smash{\tilde{O}(dH^2\sqrt{T})}$ (Li et al., 2024), where $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ the episode length, and $T$ the number of episodes. Inspired by the logistic bandit literature (Abeille et al., 2021; Faury et al., 2022; Boudart et al., 2026), we introduce a problem-dependent constant $\barσ\_T \leq 1/2$, measuring the normalised average variance of the optimal downstream value function along the learner's trajectory. We propose an algorithm achieving a regret of $\smash{\tilde{O}(dH^2\barσ\_T\sqrt{T})}$, which recovers the existing bound in the worst case and improves upon it for structured MDPs. For instance, for KL-constrained robust MDPs, $\barσ\_T = O(H^{-1})$, reducing the horizon dependence by a factor $H$. We further establish a matching $\smash{Ω(dH^2\barσ\_T\sqrt{T})}$ lower bound, proving minimax optimality (up to logarithmic factors) and fully characterising the regret complexity of MNL mixture MDPs for the first time.

Multi-task reinforcement learning (MTRL) aims to train a single agent to efficiently optimize performance across multiple tasks simultaneously. However, jointly optimizing all tasks often yields imbalanced learning: agents quickly solve easy tasks but learn slowly on harder ones. While prior work primarily attributes this imbalance to conflicting task gradients and proposes gradient manipulation or specialized architectures to address it, we instead focus on a distinct and under-explored challenge: imbalanced data allocation. Standard MTRL allocates an equal number of environment interactions to each task, which over-allocates data to easy tasks that require relatively few interactions to solve and under-allocates data to hard tasks that require substantially more experience to solve. To address this challenge, we introduce Distributionally Robust Adaptive Task Sampling (DRATS), an algorithm that adaptively prioritizes sampling tasks furthest from being solved. We derive DRATS by formalizing MTRL as a feasibility problem from which we derive a minimax objective for minimizing the worst-case return gap, the difference between a desired target return and the agent's return on a task. In benchmarks like MetaWorld-MT10 and MT50, DRATS improves data efficiency and increases worst-task performance compared to existing task sampling algorithms.

We study the fixed-budget max-min action identification problem in depth-2 max-min trees, an important special case of Monte Carlo Tree Search. A learner sequentially allocates $T$ samples to leaves and then recommends a subtree whose minimum leaf value is largest. Motivated by approximate planning, we focus on $\varepsilon$-good subtree identification, where any subtree whose min value is within $\varepsilon$ of the optimal maximin value is acceptable. Our main contribution is an $\varepsilon$-agnostic algorithm: it does not require $\varepsilon$ as input, but achieves instance-dependent error bounds for every meaningful $\varepsilon$. We show that the misidentification probability decays as $\exp(-\widetildeΘ(T/H_2(\varepsilon)))$, where $H_2(\varepsilon)$ captures both cross-subtree and within-subtree gaps. When each subtree has a single leaf, the problem reduces to standard fixed-budget best-arm identification, and our analysis recovers, up to accelerating factors, known $\varepsilon$-good guarantees for halving-style methods while giving a new $\varepsilon$-good guarantee for Successive Rejects. On the lower-bound side, we provide complementary positive and negative results showing that max-min identification has a different hardness structure from standard $K$-armed bandits. To our knowledge, this is the first provable fixed-budget algorithmic guarantee for max-min action identification.

Distributional causal inference requires estimating not only average treatment effects but also interventional outcome distributions, including quantiles, tail risks, and policy-dependent uncertainty. As a method for distributional causal inference, generative adversarial network (GAN)-based counterfactual methods are flexible tools for this task. However, these methods have several limitations. First, the objectives of certain techniques do not coincide with the statistical risk of the identifiable causal target, and therefore provide limited theoretical guarantees regarding estimable counterfactual distributions or optimality. Second, they tend to rely on unstable density-based methods, such as density ratio estimation. In this paper, we propose GANICE (GAN for Interventional Conditional Estimation) with several advantages: it (i) clarifies the conditional interventional distribution for each treatment--covariate state as the causal estimation target; (ii) estimates the conditional distribution such that its averaged Wasserstein risk is minimized; (iii) establishes minimax optimality. GANICE achieves these advantages through the introduction of the extended Wasserstein distance, the incorporation of a cellwise critic in its dual, and an optimality proof based on Besov space theory. Our experiments demonstrate that GANICE consistently outperforms existing methods.

Human-AI teams fail to outperform their best member in 70% of studies, yet no theory specifies when complementarity is achievable. We derive tight bounds for the broad class of confidence-based aggregation rules by integrating signal detection theory with information-theoretic analysis, yielding four results: (1) a complementarity theorem (teams outperform individuals iff error correlation $ρ_{HM} < ρ^*$, with $ρ^* \approx a$ in the symmetric near-chance regime); (2) minimax bounds showing gains scale as $Θ(\sqrt{Δd})$ with metacognitive sensitivity difference; (3) an impossibility result proving no confidence-based aggregation rule achieves complementarity when $ρ_{HM} \geq ρ^*$; and (4) multi-class generalization $ρ^*_K \approx ρ^*/\sqrt{K-1}$. Predictions match observed team accuracy ($R = 0.94$ on ImageNet-16H, $R = 0.91$ on CIFAR-10H) and the multi-class threshold scaling holds on human data ($R = 0.93$, $K = 16$), with robustness under non-Gaussian distributions. The framework explains why complementarity is rare and provides actionable design formulas; results apply to aggregation, not to interactive deliberation that generates novel answers.

We study a class of bilevel optimization problems in which both the upper- and lower-level problems have minimax structures. This setting captures a broad range of emerging applications. Despite the extensive literature on bilevel optimization and minimax optimization separately, existing methods mainly focus on bilevel optimization with lower-level minimization problems, often under strong convexity assumptions, and are not directly applicable to the minimax lower-level setting considered here. To address this gap, we develop penalty-based first-order methods for bilevel minimax optimization without requiring strong convexity of the lower-level problem. In the deterministic setting, we establish that the proposed method finds an $ε$-KKT point with $\tilde{O}(ε^{-4})$ oracle complexity. We further show that bilevel problems with convex constrained lower-level minimization can be reformulated as special cases of our framework via Lagrangian duality, leading to an $\tilde{O}(ε^{-4})$ complexity bound that improves upon the existing $\tilde{O}(ε^{-7})$ result. Finally, we extend our approach to the stochastic setting, where only stochastic gradient oracles are available, and prove that the proposed stochastic method finds a nearly $ε$-KKT point with $\tilde{O}(ε^{-9})$ oracle complexity.

We characterize the minimax rate of estimating the second-order calibration error for binary classification, which quantifies whether a higher-order predictor's epistemic-uncertainty estimate matches the conditional variance of the label probability on its level sets. Our key observation is that the sech perturbation kernel, previously used only to enforce smoothness of calibration functions, in fact makes them analytic in a strip of half-width $hπ/2$. Polynomial regression then estimates the calibration error at rate $\tilde{O}(1/\sqrt{n})$, with explicit constants, a qualitative improvement over the $O(n^{-1/4})$ rate achievable by bucketing or kernel smoothing. A matching $Ω(1/\sqrt{n})$ lower bound establishes minimax optimality up to logarithmic factors. As a corollary, we give the first finite-sample guarantee for second-order Platt scaling, yielding a post-hoc procedure that recalibrates both the mean prediction and the epistemic-variance estimate of any higher-order predictor. Along the way, we provide a bucket-free definition of second-order calibration and relate it quantitatively to the bucketed formulation of Ahdritz et al. [2025]. Our experiments confirm the predicted rate and the quality of the recalibrated uncertainties.

Quantile regression is a fundamental tool for distributional learning but poses significant optimization challenges for deep models due to the non-smoothness of the pinball loss. We propose ConquerNet, a class of \textbf{con}volution-smoothed \textbf{qu}antil\textbf{e} \textbf{R}eLU neural \textbf{net}works, which yield smooth objectives while preserving the underlying quantile structure. We establish general nonasymptotic risk bounds for ConquerNet under mild conditions, providing minimax guarantees over Besov function classes. In numerical studies, we demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms standard quantile neural networks at multiple quantile levels, showing improved estimation accuracy and training efficiency across the board, with particularly pronounced advantages at high and low quantiles.

Bilevel optimization and bilevel minimax optimization have recently emerged as unifying frameworks for a range of machine-learning tasks, including hyperparameter optimization and reinforcement learning. The existing literature focuses on empirical efficiency and convergence guarantees, leaving a critical theoretical gap in understanding how well these algorithms generalize. To bridge this gap, we provide the first systematic generalization analysis for first-order gradient-based bilevel minimax solvers with lower-level minimax problems. Specifically, by leveraging algorithmic stability arguments, we derive fine-grained generalization bounds for three representative algorithms, including single-timescale stochastic gradient descent-ascent, and two variants of two-timescale stochastic gradient descent-ascent. Our results reveal a precise trade-off among algorithmic stability, generalization gaps, and practical settings. Furthermore, extensive empirical evaluations corroborate our theoretical insights on realistic optimization tasks with bilevel minimax structures.

In this article, we generalize Unbounded Minimax, the state-of-the-art search algorithm for zero sums two-player games with perfect information to the framework of multiplayer games with perfect information. We experimentally show that this generalized algorithm also achieves better performance than the main multiplayer search algorithms.

We study the problem of learning minimax policies in zero-sum matrix games. Fiegel et al. (2025) recently showed that achieving last-iterate convergence in this setting is harder when the players are uncoupled, by proving a lower bound on the exploitability gap of Omega(t^{-1/4}). Some online mirror descent algorithms were proposed in the literature for this problem, but none have truly attained this rate yet. We show that the use of a log-barrier regularization, along with a dual-focused analysis, allows this O-tilde(t^{-1/4}) convergence with high-probability. We additionally extend our idea to the setting of extensive-form games, proving a bound with the same rate.

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a fundamental sampling-based search algorithm widely used for online planning in sequential decision-making domains. Despite its success in driving recent advances in artificial intelligence, understanding the behavior of MCTS agents remains a challenge for both developers and users. This difficulty stems from the complex search trees produced through the simulation of numerous future states and their intricate relationships. A known weakness of standard MCTS is its reliance on highly selective tree construction, which may lead to the omission of crucial moves and a vulnerability to tactical traps. To resolve this, we incorporate shallow, full-width Minimax search into the rollout phase of multi-agent MCTS to enhance strategic depth. Furthermore, to demystify the resulting decision-making logic, we introduce \textsf{M2-PALE} (MCTS--Minimax Process-Aided Linguistic Explanations). This framework employs process mining techniques, specifically the Alpha Miner, iDHM, and Inductive Miner algorithms, to extract underlying behavioral workflows from agent execution traces. These process models are then synthesized by LLMs to generate human-readable causal and distal explanations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a small-scale checkers environment, establishing a scalable foundation for interpreting hybrid agents in increasingly complex strategic domains.

There has been significant recent progress in algorithms for approximation of Nash equilibrium in large two-player zero-sum imperfect-information games and exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer strategic-form games. While counterfactual regret minimization and fictitious play are scalable to large games and have convergence guarantees in two-player zero-sum games, they do not guarantee convergence to Nash equilibrium in multiplayer games. We present an approach for exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer imperfect-information games that solves a quadratically-constrained program based on a nonlinear complementarity problem formulation from the sequence-form game representation. This approach capitalizes on recent advances for solving nonconvex quadratic programs. Our algorithm is able to quickly solve three-player Kuhn poker after removal of dominated actions. Of the available algorithms in the Gambit software suite, only the logit quantal response approach is successfully able to solve the game; however, the approach takes longer than our algorithm and also involves a degree of approximation. Our formulation also leads to a new approach for computing Nash equilibrium in multiplayer strategic-form games which we demonstrate to outperform a previous quadratically-constrained program formulation.

We study bimatrix two-player games and investigate the last-iterate convergence and stability of equilibria for the iterates generated by the optimistic exponential weights method. In contrast to prior work, we allow the step sizes $\eta_x$ and $\eta_y$ to differ. Our first main result establishes, under the assumption that the set of fixed points is finite, a sufficient condition for global last-iterate convergence in the special case of zero-sum games, which constrains only the product $\eta_x\eta_y$ of the step sizes. This condition is practically relevant and partially explains empirically observed behavior. Our second main result provides an almost-tight threshold for asymptotic stability and instability, again in terms of products of the step sizes, for general bimatrix games. This result is primarily of theoretical interest. We derive several known results and practically relevant step size bounds for special cases and illustrate our results by experiments.