Power Systems

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20 papers in the last four weeks, up 122% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 149

May 5, 2026math.OC

Exact and Evolutionary Algorithms for Sequential Multi-Objective Transmission Topology Planning

We study day-ahead transmission topology control for high-voltage grid operation under

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security constraints. The operational task is to select, over a 24-hour horizon, a sequence of substation topologies obtained via busbar-coupler switching to relieve line overloads while limiting switching effort and topological complexity. We formulate this task as a sequential multi-objective optimization problem with four objectives used in TSO decision making: worst-case

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line loading, maximum topological depth, number of topology changes, and time spent outside the reference topology. We propose an exact block algorithm that exploits the temporal structure of topology plans: consecutive hours with the same topology are represented as blocks, enabling enumeration of the complete Pareto front over the admissible set of topologies under fixed operational bounds on depth and switching. We also develop a tailored NSGA-III-based evolutionary heuristic and evaluate it against the exact front. Using real operational data from the Dutch high-voltage transmission grid operated by TenneT, the block algorithm computes the exact front for a highly congested day in under three minutes after topology-level load-flow preprocessing. The exact front reveals low-switching plans with no DC

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thermal overloads that the tested evolutionary search fails to find. The proposed method, therefore, provides both a practical day-ahead decision-support tool for transmission operators and a benchmark for heuristic and learning-based topology-control methods.

Job Groeneveld, Miguel Muñoz, Jan Viebahn +1

TenneT TSO B.V., Arnhem, The Netherlands · Artelys, Paris, France · Department of Mathematics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Multi-Objective Evolutionary Optimization Combinatorial Optimization Multi-Objective Optimization Power Systems

May 4, 2026cs.MA

MARS-DA: A Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning Framework for Risk-Aware Multi-Agent Bidding in Power Grids

The increasing penetration of renewable energy has introduced substantial volatility into wholesale electricity markets, complicating the optimal bidding strategies for power producers. Traditional Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches often struggle to balance profit maximization with risk management, frequently overfitting to specific market conditions or failing to account for the stochastic spread between Day-Ahead (DA) and Real-Time (RT) settlements. To address these challenges, this paper makes two primary contributions. First, we introduce and open-source a high-fidelity gymnasium environment for two-settlement electricity market bidding. Grounded in extensive empirical data from the PJM Interconnection, the environment explicitly models the interplay between DA commitments and RT deviations, providing a standardized testbed for general and risk-sensitive agents. Second, we propose MARS-DA (Multi-Agent Regime-Switching for Day-Ahead markets), a novel hierarchical framework that orchestrates distinct sub-policies for risk management and profit seeking. MARS-DA utilizes a top-level Meta-Controller to dynamically blend the actions of two specialized base agents: a "Safe Agent" that optimizes for reliable DA allocation and a "Speculator Agent" that targets volatile RT arbitrage opportunities. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MARS-DA achieves superior risk-adjusted returns compared to state-of-the-art baselines while maintaining robust regime alignment during periods of extreme market volatility.

Jiayi Chen, Xuan Zhang, Guiling Wang

Department of Computer Science, New Jersey Institute of Technology

Hierarchical RL Risk-Sensitive RL Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Power Systems

May 4, 2026cs.DC

From Barrier to Bridge: The Case for AI Data Center/Power Grid Co-Design

For over a century, the electric grid has relied on a single statistical assumption: \emph{load diversity}, the principle that the uncorrelated demands of millions of small consumers produce a smooth, predictable aggregate. AI training data centers break that assumption. A single hyperscale training campus can draw power comparable to a mid-sized city, driven by one tightly synchronized job whose demand swings by hundreds of megawatts in seconds. This paper argues that the resulting entanglement of compute and power infrastructure requires a shift from implicit coexistence to explicit co-development between the historically decoupled data center and electric power industries. We introduce the distinct design principles, operational philosophies, and economic incentives of each sector, and show why their cultural and technical misalignment makes coordination difficult. We identify key research directions, from joint capacity planning, multi-timescale control, a compute--power protocol stack, to market innovation, that must be pursued to power the future of AI sustainably and reliably.

Noman Bashir, Rob Sherwood, Le Xie +1

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA · SwitchDin, Australia · Harvard University, USA

May 4, 2026cs.LG

LUMINA: A Grid Foundation Model for Benchmarking AC Optimal Power Flow Surrogate Learning

AC optimal power flow (ACOPF) is foundational yet computationally expensive in power grid operations, driving learning-based surrogates for large-scale grid analysis. These surrogates, however, often fail to generalize across network topologies, a critical gap for deployment on grids not seen during training and for routine operational what-if studies. We introduce LUMINA-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark suite for ACOPF surrogate learning covering multi-topology pretraining, transfer, and adaptation. The benchmark evaluates homogeneous and heterogeneous architectures under single- and multi-topology learning settings using unified metrics that capture both predictive accuracy and physics-informed constraint violations. We additionally compare constraint-aware training objectives, including MSE, augmented Lagrangian, and violation-based Lagrangian losses, to characterize accuracy-robustness trade-offs across settings. Data processing, training, and evaluation frameworks are open-sourced as the LUMINA suite to support reproducibility and accelerate future research on feasibility-aware OPF surrogates.

Hongwei Jin, Keunju Song, Zeeshan Memon +5

Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory · Department of Electronic Engineering, Sogang University · Department of Computer Science, Emory University +1

Neural Surrogate Modeling Benchmark Design Optimal Power Flow Constrained Optimization Power Systems

May 3, 2026cs.LG

Towards Systematic Generalization for Power Grid Optimization Problems

AC Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) and Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) are fundamental optimization problems in power system operations. ACOPF serves as the physical backbone of grid simulation and real-time operation, enforcing nonlinear power flow feasibility and network limits, while SCUC represents a core market-level decision process that schedules generation under operational and security constraints. Although these problems share the same underlying transmission network and physical laws, they differ in decision variables and temporal coupling, and prior learning-based approaches address them in isolation, resulting in disjoint models and representations.We propose a learning framework that jointly models ACOPF and SCUC through a shared graph-based backbone that captures grid topology and physical interactions, coupled with task-specific decoders for static and temporal decision-making. Training includes solver supervision with physics-informed objectives to enforce AC feasibility and inter-temporal operational constraints. To evaluate generalization, we assess cross-case transfer on unseen grid topologies for ACOPF and SCUC without retraining, and systematic generalization on the UC-ACOPF problem using unsupervised, physics-based objectives and a power-dispatch consensus mechanism. Experiments across multiple grid scales demonstrate improved performance and transferability relative to existing learning-based baselines, indicating that the model can support learning across heterogeneous power system optimization problems.

Zeeshan Memon, Yijiang Li, Hongwei Jin +2

Emory University Atlanta, GA, USA · Argonne National Laboratory Lemont, IL, USA

Optimal Power Flow Constrained Optimization Compositional Generalization Power Systems

Apr 30, 2026cs.LG

SPLICE: Latent Diffusion over JEPA Embeddings for Conformal Time-Series Inpainting

Generative models for time-series imputation achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, yet provide no finite-sample reliability guarantees, a critical limitation in power systems where imputed values inform dispatch and planning. We introduce SPLICE (Self-supervised Predictive Latent Inpainting with Conformal Envelopes), a modular framework coupling latent generative imputation with distribution-free, online-adaptive prediction intervals. A JEPA encoder maps daily load segments into a 64-dimensional latent space; a conditional latent bridge with four sampling modes generates candidate gap trajectories; an hourly-conditioned decoder maps back to signal space; and Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) wraps the output with coverage-guaranteed prediction bands. The flow-matching variant achieves comparable quality to DDIM in 5--10 ODE steps (5-10x speedup). On thirteen load datasets (nine proprietary, three UCI Electricity, ETTh1), SPLICE achieves the lowest mean Load-only MSE (0.056), winning 9/12 non-degenerate datasets at 91-day gaps and 18/32 across all gap lengths vs. five established baselines, and produces the best CRPS (0.161, -18.3% vs. the strongest competitor). ACI delivers 93--95% empirical coverage, correcting under-coverage failures of up to 7.5 pp observed with static conformal prediction. A pooled JEPA encoder trained on nine feeds transfers to four unseen domains, matching or exceeding per-dataset oracles with only a quick bridge fine-tuning.

Arnaud Zinflou

Hydro-Québec Research Institute Canada

Time Series Imputation Incomplete Data Imputation Power Systems

Apr 30, 2026cs.AI

Fairness for distribution network operations and planning

The incorporation of fairness into the distribution network (DN) planning and operation has become a key goal of recent studies. The cost of implementing fairness, denominated the price of fairness (PoF), covers the efficiency that is renounced for attaining social cohesion through fair outcomes. Locational disparity makes fairness schemes emerge to level the consumers playing field. However, fairness encompasses a range of notions. From egalitarian to merit-based criteria, various metrics are implemented as a tool for measuring equitable utility distribution. These have different mathematical complexities, from linear to non-linear programming cases, which affect their overall applicability. Hence, this study compiles the overarching fairness notions and metrics, reviewing how these affect stakeholders and the inherent mathematical optimisation in resource allocation problems. The aim is to support consistent and transparent planning and decision-making within DN operations.

Pedro F. C. de Carvalho, Zijie Liu, Md Umar Hashmi +1

KU Leuven, division Electa in Leuven · & EnergyVille in Genk, Belgium

Fair Resource Allocation Algorithmic Fairness Group Fairness Power Systems

Apr 27, 2026cs.LG

GradMAP: Gradient-Based Multi-Agent Proximal Learning for Grid-Edge Flexibility

Coordinating large populations of grid-edge devices requires learning methods that remain fully decentralised in deployment while still respecting three-phase AC distribution-network physics. This paper proposes gradient-based multi-agent proximal learning (GradMAP) to address this challenge. GradMAP trains independent neural-network policies for each agent without any parameter sharing, and each agent uses only its own local observation for online decision-making without communication. During offline training, GradMAP embeds a differentiable three-phase AC power-flow model in a primal-dual learning loop and uses implicit differentiation to propagate exact network-constraint violations to update the policy parameters. To speed up training, GradMAP reuses expensive environment gradients through a proximal surrogate within a trust region defined in the more direct policy-output (action) space, instead of the probability distribution space used in other works, such as PPO. In case studies with 1,000 agents managing batteries, heat pumps, and controllable generators on the IEEE 123-bus feeder, GradMAP learns decentralised policies that minimise three-phase AC load-flow constraint violations within 15 minutes of training on a single workstation-class NVIDIA RTX PRO 5000 Blackwell 48GB GPU. This is a 3--5x training speed-up over gradient-based self-supervised learning benchmarks and substantially better training efficiency than multi-agent reinforcement-learning benchmarks. In out-of-sample tests, GradMAP also delivers among the lowest operating cost and constraint violations.

Yihong Zhou, Hongtai Zeng, Thomas Morstyn

Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford

Multi-Agent Control Constrained RL Decentralized MARL Power Systems

Apr 26, 2026cs.CR

An AI-Based Supervisory Measurement Integrity Validation Layer for Cyber-Resilient AC/DC Protection in Inverter-Based Microgrids

Line current differential relays (LCDRs) are measurement-driven relays that rely on time-synchronized multi-phase current waveforms to infer internal faults in AC and DC power networks. In inverter-based microgrids, however, the increasing reliance on digitally communicated measurements exposes LCDRs to false-data injection attacks (FDIAs), in which adversaries manipulate remote measurement streams to create protection-triggering yet physically inconsistent current trajectories. This paper addresses this emerging measurement integrity problem by introducing a measurement integrity validation scheme that operates as a supervisory instrumentation layer for modern LCDRs. The proposed scheme interprets short windows of synchronized instantaneous current measurements recorded during relay operation and assesses their physical consistency to distinguish genuine fault-induced trajectories from cyber-manipulated measurement streams. A recurrent neural network is trained offline using only relay-available current measurements and exploits the temporal structure of differential current waveforms, which remains informative in inverter-dominated systems where current magnitude is no longer a reliable observable. The method requires no additional sensors, auxiliary protection elements, or prior knowledge of network topology, and is applicable to both AC and DC LCDRs without structural modification. The proposed measurement validation scheme is evaluated on an islanded inverter-based microgrid under a comprehensive set of fault and FDIA scenarios, demonstrating high detection accuracy while preserving relay dependability. Hardware-in-the-loop validation using an OPAL-RT real-time simulator confirms that the scheme satisfies protection timing constraints and can operate in real time under realistic operating conditions.

Ahmad Mohammad Saber, Ahmed Saber Refae, Davor Svetinovic +4

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada · Electric Power Engineering Department, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt · Department of Electrical Engineering, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, UAE +1

Apr 26, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable Physics-Informed Load Forecasting for U.S. Grid Resilience: SHAP-Guided Ensemble Validation in Hybrid Deep Learning Under Extreme Weather

Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is a cornerstone of U.S. grid reliability; however, prevailing deep learning models remain opaque, limiting operator trust during extreme weather. A unified, interpretable, physics-informed ensemble framework is proposed, integrating a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) branch for local feature extraction and a Transformer branch for long-range dependency modeling; the branches are fused through a validation-optimized weighted ensemble and regularized by a physics-informed loss derived from the piecewise parabolic temperature-demand relationship of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. Post-hoc interpretability is provided through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) with the DeepExplainer backend, yielding global and event-level attributions. Using eight years of ERCOT hourly load data (2018-2025) fused with Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) records from three Texas stations, the framework achieves 713 MW MAE, 812 MW RMSE, and 1.18% MAPE on the test window. For Hampel-flagged extreme events, MAPE falls by 20.7% relative to its Transformer branch and by 40.5% relative to its CNN branch; an ablation confirms that the parabolic and ramp constraints drive a 14.7% RMSE reduction. SHAP analysis reveals a regime shift: temperature dominates under normal operation, whereas wind speed and precipitation become more influential during cold fronts and heatwaves.

Md Abubakkar, Sajib Debnath, Md. Uzzal Mia

Dept. of Computer Science, Midwestern State University, Dallas, TX, USA · O&M Analytics, AES Clean Energy, The AES Corporation, Louisville, CO, USA · Dept. of Information and Communication Engineering, Pabna University of Science and Technology, Bangladesh

Hybrid CNN-Transformer Architectures Time Series Forecasting Physics-Informed ML Electricity Load Forecasting Power Systems

Apr 23, 2026eess.SY

A Multi-Stage Warm-Start Deep Learning Framework for Unit Commitment

Maintaining instantaneous balance between electricity supply and demand is critical for reliability and grid instability. System operators achieve this through solving the task of Unit Commitment (UC),ca high dimensional large-scale Mixed-integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem that is strictly and heavily governed by the grid physical constraints. As grid integrate variable renewable sources, and new technologies such as long duration storage in the grid, UC must be optimally solved for multi-day horizons and potentially with greater frequency. Therefore, traditional MILP solvers increasingly struggle to compute solutions within these tightening operational time limits. To bypass these computational bottlenecks, this paper proposes a novel framework utilizing a transformer-based architecture to predict generator commitment schedules over a 72-hour horizon. Also, because raw predictions in highly dimensional spaces often yield physically infeasible results, the pipeline integrates the self-attention network with deterministic post-processing heuristics that systematically enforce minimum up/down times and minimize excess capacity. Finally, these refined predictions are utilized as a warm start for a downstream MILP solver, while employing a confidence-based variable fixation strategy to drastically reduce the combinatorial search space. Validated on a single-bus test system, the complete multi-stage pipeline achieves 100% feasibility and significantly accelerates computation times. Notably, in approximately 20% of test instances, the proposed model reached a feasible operational schedule with a lower overall system cost than relying solely on the solver.

Muhy Eddin Za'ter, Anna Van Boven, Bri-Mathias Hodge +1

University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO, USA

Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Power Systems

Apr 22, 2026cs.LG

A Hierarchical MARL-Based Approach for Coordinated Retail P2P Trading and Wholesale Market Participation of DERs

The ongoing shift towards decentralization of the electric energy sector, driven by the growing electrification across end-use sectors, and widespread adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs), necessitates their active participation in the electricity markets to support grid operations. Furthermore, with bi-directional energy and communication flows becoming standard, intelligent, easy-to-deploy, resource-conservative demand-side participation is expected to play a critical role in securing power grid operational flexibility and market efficiency. This work proposes a market engagement framework that leverages a hierarchical multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (MARL) approach to enable individual prosumers to participate in peer-to-peer retail auctions and further aggregate these intelligent prosumers to facilitate effective DER participation in wholesale markets. Ultimately, a Stackelberg game is proposed to coordinate this hierarchical MARL-based DER market participation framework toward enhanced market performance.

Patrick Wilk, Ethan Cantor, Yikui Liu +1

aDepartment Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rowan University, 201 Mullica Hill Rd, Glassboro, New Jersey, 08028, United States · bSchool of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, 24 South Section 1, 1st Ring Road, Chengdu, 610065, China

Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Power Systems

Apr 22, 2026cs.LG

Robustness of Spatio-temporal Graph Neural Networks for Fault Location in Partially Observable Distribution Grids

Fault location in distribution grids is critical for reliability and minimizing outage durations. Yet, it remains challenging due to partial observability, given sparse measurement infrastructure. Recent works show promising results by combining Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for spatio-temporal learning. Still, many modern GNN architectures remain untested for this grid application, while existing GNN solutions have not explored GNN topology definitions beyond simply adopting the full grid topology to construct the GNN graph. We address these gaps by (i) systematically comparing a newly proposed graph-forming strategy (measured-only) to the traditional full-topology approach, and (ii) introducing STGNN (Spatio-temporal GNN) models based on GraphSAGE and an improved Graph Attention (GATv2), for distribution grid fault location; (iii) benchmarking them against state-of-the-art STGNN and RNN baselines on the IEEE 123-bus feeder. In our experiments, all evaluated STGNN variants achieve high performance and consistently outperform a pure RNN baseline, with improvements up to 11 percentage points F1. Among STGNN models, the newly explored RGATv2 and RGSAGE achieve only marginally higher F1 scores. Still, STGNNs demonstrate superior stability, with tight confidence intervals (within +/- 1.4%) compared to the RNN baseline (up to +/- 7.5%) across different experiment runs. Finally, our proposed reduced GNN topology (measured-only) shows clear benefits in both (i) model training time (6-fold reduction) and (ii) model performance (up to 11 points F1). This suggests that measured-only graphs offer a more practical, efficient, and robust framework for partially observable distribution grids.

Burak Karabulut, Carlo Manna, Chris Develder

Ghent University – imec · VITO

Graph Attention Networks Graph Neural Networks Anomaly Localization Spatiotemporal GNNs Power Systems

Apr 21, 2026cs.CV

A Network-Aware Evaluation of Distributed Energy Resource Control in Smart Distribution Systems

Distribution networks with high penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) increasingly rely on communication networks to coordinate grid-interactive control. While many distributed control schemes have been proposed, they are often evaluated under idealized communication assumptions, making it difficult to assess their performance under realistic network conditions. This work presents an implementation-driven evaluation of a representative virtual power plant (VPP) dispatch algorithm using a co-simulation framework that couples a linearized distribution-system model with packet-level downlink emulation in ns-3. The study considers a modified IEEE~37-node feeder with high photovoltaic penetration and a primal--dual VPP dispatch that simultaneously targets feeder-head active power tracking and voltage regulation. Communication effects are introduced only on the downlink path carrying dual-variable updates, where per-DER packet delays and a hold-last-value strategy are modeled. Results show that, under ideal communication, the dispatch achieves close tracking of the feeder-head power reference while maintaining voltages within the prescribed limits at selected buses. When realistic downlink delay is introduced, the same controller exhibits large oscillations in feeder-head power and more frequent voltage limit violations. These findings highlight that distributed DER control performance can be strongly influenced by communication behavior and motivate evaluation frameworks that explicitly incorporate network dynamics into the assessment of grid-interactive control schemes.

Houchao Gan

Department of Computer Science City University of New York

Distributed Optimization Feedback Control Power Systems

Apr 20, 2026cs.AI

A Generalized Synthetic Control Method for Baseline Estimation in Demand Response Services

Baseline estimation is critical to Demand Response (DR) settlement in electricity markets, yet existing machine learning methods remain limited in predictive performance, while methodologies from causal inference and counterfactual prediction are still underutilized in this domain. We introduce a Generalized Synthetic Control Method that builds on the classical Synthetic Control Method (SCM) from econometrics. While SCM provides a powerful framework for counterfactual estimation, classical SCM remains a static estimator: it fits the treated unit as a combination of contemporaneous donor units and therefore ignores predictable temporal structure in the residual error. We develop a generalized SCM framework that transforms baseline estimation into a dynamic counterfactual prediction problem by augmenting the donor representation with exogenous features, lagged treated load, and selected lagged donor signals. This enriched representation allows the estimator to capture autoregressive dependence, delayed donor-response patterns, and error-correction effects beyond the scope of standard SCM. The framework further accommodates nonlinear predictors when linear weighting is inadequate, with the greatest benefit arising in limited-data settings. Experiments on the Ausgrid smart-meter dataset show consistent improvements over classical SCM and strong benchmark methods, with the dominant performance gains driven by dynamic augmentation.

Jonas Sievers, Mardavij Roozbehani

Institute for Data Processing and Electronics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany · Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Boston, MA 02139, USA

Counterfactual Prediction Demand Response Power Systems

Apr 16, 2026cs.AI

Predicting Power-System Dynamic Trajectories with Foundation Models

As power systems transition toward renewable-rich and inverter-dominated operations, accurate time-domain dynamic analysis becomes increasingly critical. Such analysis supports key operational tasks, including transient stability assessment, dynamic security analysis, contingency screening, and post-fault trajectory evaluation. In practice, these tasks may operate under several challenges, including unknown and time-varying system parameters, privacy constraints on data sharing, and the need for fast online inference. Existing learning-based approaches are typically trained for individual systems and therefore lack generalization across operating conditions and physical parameters. Hence, this paper proposes LArge Scale Small ODE (LASS)-ODE-Power, a learning framework for general-purpose time-domain prediction. The proposed approach leverages large-scale pretraining on more than 40 GB of DAE or ordinary differential-equation (ODE) trajectories to learn transferable representations. The resulting model supports trajectory prediction from short measurement prefixes across diverse dynamic regimes, including electromechanical and inverter-driven systems. Hence, the model can be directly used without data sharing in a zero-shot setting. In addition, the proposed architecture incorporates parallel and linearized computation to achieve fast inference. Moreover, to enhance task-specific performance in power systems, a specialized fine-tuning strategy is developed based on approximately 1 GB of heterogeneous power-system dynamic data. Extensive experiments over diverse power-system simulation scenarios demonstrate that LASS-ODE-Power consistently outperforms existing learning-based models in trajectory prediction accuracy with efficient inference.

Haoran Li, Lihao Mai, Chenhan Xiao +2

School of Electrical, Computer and Energy Engineering at Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281 USA · MOVEJ Analytics, Dayton, OH 45324 USA

Neural Surrogate Modeling Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time-Series Foundation Models Power Systems

Apr 16, 2026cs.LG

Assessing the Performance-Efficiency Trade-off of Foundation Models in Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only to support operational decisions, such as optimal bidding strategies and balancing power preparation, but also to reduce economic risk and improve market efficiency. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they quantify uncertainty stemming from renewable intermittency, market coupling, and regulatory changes, enabling market participants to make informed decisions that minimize losses and optimize expected revenues. However, it remains an open question which models to employ to produce accurate forecasts. Should these be task-specific machine learning (ML) models or Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs)? In this work, we compare four models for day-ahead probabilistic EPF (PEPF) in European bidding zones: a deterministic NHITS backbone with Quantile-Regression Averaging (NHITS+QRA) and a conditional Normalizing-Flow forecaster (NF) are compared with two TSFMs, namely Moirai and ChronosX. On the one hand, we find that TSFMs outperform task-specific deep learning models trained from scratch in terms of CRPS, Energy Score, and predictive interval calibration across market conditions. On the other hand, we find that well-configured task-specific models, particularly NHITS combined with QRA, achieve performance very close to TSFMs, and in some scenarios, such as when supplied with additional informative feature groups or adapted via few-shot learning from other European markets, they can even surpass TSFMs. Overall, our findings show that while TSFMs offer expressive modeling capabilities, conventional models remain highly competitive, emphasizing the need to weigh computational expense against marginal performance improvements in PEPF.

Jan Niklas Lettner, Hadeer El Ashhab, Veit Hagenmeyer +1

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology · Karlsruhe, Germany

Electricity Price Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting Time-Series Foundation Models Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Power Systems

Apr 3, 2026cs.LG

Learning Without Adversarial Training: A Physics-Informed Neural Network for Secure Power System State Estimation under False Data Injection Attacks

Power System State Estimation (PSSE) converts geographically distributed measurements into the voltage magnitudes and phase angles needed for grid monitoring and control. Learned estimators can perform this mapping rapidly, but model-aware False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs) may corrupt their inputs while retaining AC plausibility and residual-based stealth. Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) limit candidate states through power-flow consistency; however, their robustness depends on balancing supervised and physics losses whose scales and gradient contributions evolve during training. This paper proposes a PINN that jointly learns homoscedastic uncertainty parameters and uses them to adapt the two objectives. The formulation assigns trainable log-uncertainties to the active-power, reactive-power, voltage, and angle losses while safeguarding against an underweighted physics objective. The estimator is trained only on clean steady-state data and is evaluated, without adversarial retraining, under baseline state-distortion and stricter residual-profile-matching regimes on the IEEE~118-bus system. Accuracy is measured against the uncompromised system state. Relative to a fixed-weight PINN, dynamic weighting reduces overall Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by

55\%

while also improving voltage- and angle-estimation accuracy. The results show that learning the physics/data balance from clean data improves robustness to unseen FDIAs.

Solon Falas, Markos Asprou, Charalambos Konstantinou +1

KIOS Center of Excellence, University of Cyprus · CEMSE, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Cyprus

False Data Injection Attacks Adversarial Robustness Physics-Informed ML Power Systems

Mar 27, 2026cs.AI

AutoB2G: Agentic Simulation and Reinforcement Learning for Spatio-Temporal Grid-Interactive Building Control

Grid-interactive building control has emerged as a promising approach for improving demand-side flexibility in modern power systems. Realistic studies of such systems, however, require tightly coupled co-simulation across buildings, reinforcement learning (RL), and distribution grids to capture time-varying control dynamics over spatially distributed grid infrastructures. Constructing these workflows remains highly challenging in practice: researchers must coordinate heterogeneous simulators, configure grid environments, synchronize time-varying execution, and maintain consistency across software interfaces and physical constraints. As simulation complexity increases, these requirements become a major bottleneck for rapidly prototyping and studying learning-based energy control systems. In this work, we introduce AutoB2G, an agentic framework for spatio-temporal building-grid co-simulation. AutoB2G formulates simulation construction as a workflow orchestration problem, where natural-language user intents are translated into executable simulation pipelines. The framework integrates building control environments with power-system simulation tools, enabling modular co-simulation under diverse grid settings. To automate workflow construction, we develop an agentic large language model (LLM)-based orchestration framework for scientific simulation. AutoB2G organizes simulation components into a directed acyclic graph (DAG)-structured codebase and employs LLM agents to perform retrieval, composition, execution, verification, and iterative repair of simulation workflows. This allows users to specify high-level simulation tasks while automatically generating complex co-simulation pipelines without manually implementing low-level simulator logic.

Borui Zhang, Nariman Mahdavi, Subbu Sethuvenkatraman +1

University of New South Wales Sydney, NSW, Australia · CSIRO Newcastle, NSW, Australia

LLM Agent Orchestration Power Systems

Feb 20, 2026cs.LG

Generating adversarial inputs for a graph neural network model of AC power flow

This work formulates and solves optimization problems to generate input points that yield high errors between a neural network's predicted AC power flow solution and solutions to the AC power flow equations. We demonstrate this capability on an instance of the CANOS-PF graph neural network model, as implemented by the PF

Δ

benchmark library, operating on a 14-bus test grid. Generated adversarial points yield errors as large as 3.7 per-unit in reactive power and 0.08 per-unit in voltage magnitude. When minimizing the perturbation from a training point necessary to satisfy adversarial constraints, we find that the constraints can be met with as little as an 0.04 per-unit perturbation in voltage magnitude on a single bus. This work motivates the development of rigorous verification and robust training methods for neural network surrogate models of AC power flow.

Robert Parker

Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA

Neural Surrogate Modeling Graph Neural Networks Adversarial Attacks Power Systems

Feb 13, 2026cs.LG

Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Tree-Based Machine Learning and Weather Ensembles

Accurate production forecasts are essential for the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic forecasts of wind power generation using gradient boosting trees and an ensemble of weather forecasts. To this end, we perform a comparative analysis across three state-of-the-art probabilistic prediction methods-conformalized quantile regression, natural gradient boosting and conditional diffusion models-all of which can be combined with tree-based machine learning. The methods are validated using four years of data for all Belgian offshore wind farms. We benchmark the models against the power curve and a calibrated wake model as well as a probabilistic method using stochastic variational Gaussian process regression. The tree-based models significantly reduce the mean absolute error in comparison to the deterministic baselines. Additionally, all three methods outperform the Gaussian process baseline in probabilistic skill, while two out of the three also improve point forecast accuracy. The conditional diffusion model attains the best performance, with improvements of 5% in mean absolute error and 12% in continuous rank probability score compared to the probabilistic baseline. Last, the results indicate an average improvement in point forecast accuracy of 17% by using an ensemble of weather forecasts instead of a single provider.

Max Bruninx, Diederik van Binsbergen, Timothy Verstraeten +2

Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium · Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees Ensemble Learning Time Series Forecasting Conformal Prediction Wind Power Forecasting Conditional Diffusion Models+2

Jan 15, 2026stat.ML

CROCS: A Two-Stage Clustering Framework for Behaviour-Centric Consumer Segmentation with Smart Meter Data

With grid operators confronting rising uncertainty from renewable integration and a broader push toward electrification, Demand-Side Management (DSM) -- particularly Demand Response (DR) -- has attracted significant attention as a cost-effective mechanism for balancing modern electricity systems. Unprecedented volumes of consumption data from a continuing global deployment of smart meters enable consumer segmentation based on real usage behaviours, promising to inform the design of more effective DSM and DR programs. However, existing clustering-based segmentation methods insufficiently reflect the behavioural diversity of consumers, often relying on rigid temporal alignment, and faltering in the presence of anomalies, missing data, or large-scale deployments. To address these challenges, we propose a novel two-stage clustering framework -- Clustered Representations Optimising Consumer Segmentation (CROCS). In the first stage, each consumer's daily load profiles are clustered independently to form a Representative Load Set (RLS), providing a compact summary of their typical diurnal consumption behaviours. In the second stage, consumers are clustered using the Weighted Sum of Minimum Distances (WSMD), a novel set-to-set measure that compares RLSs by accounting for both the prevalence and similarity of those behaviours. Finally, community detection on the WSMD-induced graph reveals higher-order prototypes that embody the shared diurnal behaviours defining consumer groups, enhancing the interpretability of the resulting clusters. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real Australian smart meter datasets demonstrate that CROCS captures intra-consumer variability, uncovers both synchronous and asynchronous behavioural similarities, and remains robust to anomalies and missing data, while scaling efficiently through natural parallelisation. These results...

Luke W. Yerbury, Ricardo J. G. B. Campello, G. C. Livingston +2

Clustering Demand Response Time Series Clustering Power Systems

Jan 7, 2026eess.SY

Accounting for Optimal Control in the Sizing of Isolated Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems Using Imitation Learning

Decarbonization of isolated or off-grid energy systems through phase-in of large shares of intermittent solar or wind generation requires co-installation of energy storage or continued use of existing fossil dispatchable power sources to balance supply and demand. The effective CO2 emission reduction depends on the relative capacity of the energy storage and renewable sources, the stochasticity of the renewable generation, and the control of the isolated energy system. While the operation of the energy storage and dispatchable sources impacts the optimal sizing of the system, it is challenging to account for the effect of finite-horizon optimal control at the stage of system sizing. In this work, we present a flexible and computationally efficient sizing framework for energy storage and renewable capacity in isolated energy systems, accounting for uncertainty in the renewable generation and the optimal control. We implement an imitation learning approach to stochastic neural model predictive control (MPC) which allows us to relate the battery storage and wind peak capacities to the emissions reduction and investment costs while accounting for finite horizon, optimal control without solving an infeasible number of optimization problems. We evaluate the proposed sizing framework on a case study of an offshore energy system with a gas turbine, a wind farm and a battery energy storage system (BESS). In this case, we find a nonlinear, nontrivial relationship between the investment costs and the reduction in gas usage for different wind and BESS capacities.

Simon Halvdansson, Lucas Ferreira Bernardino, Brage Rugstad Knudsen

SINTEF Energy Research, Trondheim, Norway.

Dec 27, 2025cs.CV

Comparing Object Detection Models for Electrical Substation Component Mapping

Electrical substations are a significant component of an electrical grid. Indeed, the assets at these substations (e.g., transformers) are vulnerable to hazards such as hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes, and geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Because failures can have significant economic and public safety implications, identifying key substation components is essential for quantifying vulnerability. Unfortunately, traditional manual mapping of substation infrastructure is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Therefore, an autonomous solution utilizing computer vision models is preferable, as it offers greater convenience and efficiency. In this study, we train and compare 16 models on a manually labeled dataset of US substation images. These models include 12 You Only Look Once (YOLO) models, 2 Roboflow Detection Transformer (RF-DETR) models, and 2 Cascade R-CNN models. RF-DETR-large achieved the highest overall detection performance with mAP@50 and mAP@50:95 scores of 0.881 and 0.632, respectively. Across all models, alternate energy systems were detected most accurately, while transformers and reactors were more difficult to identify due to their smaller size and greater visual variability. Applying our best-performing model to nationwide imagery yielded approximately 22,591 component detections across 11,083 unique substations within the United States. These detections were broken down by state and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) regions, with Florida (2,478 detections) and Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO; 4,329 detections) having the largest number of detections in their respective categories.

Namish Bansal, Haley Mody, Dennies Kiprono Bor +2

George Mason University

Object Detection Power Systems You Only Look Once

Nov 25, 2025eess.SY

Reinforcement Learning to Initialize Newton-Raphson for AC Power Flow with Quantum Annealing-Based Environment Updates

The Newton-Raphson (NR) method is widely used for solving power flow (PF) equations due to its quadratic convergence. However, its performance deteriorates under poor initialization or extreme operating scenarios, e.g., high levels of renewable energy penetration. We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) to optimize the initialization of NR, and introduce a quantum-enhanced RL environment update mechanism that addresses the combinatorially large action space at each RL timestep by formulating the voltage adjustment task as a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem, solved with an Ising machine. RL initialization is benchmarked against flat start and start from the DC (linearized) PF solution on a standard 4-bus system, Iwamoto's ill-conditioned 11-bus system, and the IEEE 118-bus system under normal and stressed loading and reactive power limits, with verified operational solutions. On all systems, a supervised initializer refined by RL requires fewer NR iterations than flat and DC starts and than the same initializer without RL, for all seeds. For example, on the 118-bus system under normal and stressed loading, it reached 2.04 and 2.86 NR iterations, compared with 3.02 and 5.13 from DC start and 2.61 and 3.09 without RL. In wall-clock time, this pays off only for an initializer integrated into the solver and reused for many solves on a fixed topology. On the 4-bus system, a quantum-enhanced RL agent with a quantum-inspired annealer moved challenging initial states that required 29 and 44 NR iterations to initializations that required three NR iterations within one RL timestep.

Zeynab Kaseb, Matthias Moller, Lindsay Spoor +4

Electrical Sustainable Energy, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5031, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands. · Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5031, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands. · Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9512, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands. +3

Reinforcement Learning Quantum Annealing Learning to Optimize Power Systems

Nov 7, 2025cs.LG

ProDER: A Continual Learning Approach for Fault Classification and Localization in Evolving Smart Grids

Data-driven fault diagnosis models for smart grids are usually trained once on a fixed dataset, whereas in operation new fault types appear and monitoring is extended to new grid zones. Retraining from scratch on all accumulated data is costly, while naively updating the model on new data causes catastrophic forgetting. To address this problem, we formulate fault type classification and fault zone localization as continual learning (CL) problems and design four evaluation scenarios on the IEEE 13-node test feeder, three class-incremental and one domain-incremental. We then propose Prototype-based Dark Experience Replay (ProDER), which extends DER++ with prototype attraction and prototype-level repulsion losses that stabilize the feature space, temperature-scaled logit distillation, and a prototype-aware replay memory that retains both core and boundary samples of each class. ProDER achieves the highest accuracy among the tested CL methods in all scenarios, with an average accuracy of 58.2%, 6.6 points above the strongest competing method (DPDMR, 51.6%) and only 3.2 points below joint training (61.4%). Per scenario, it improves over the strongest competitor by 4.2 to 7.4 points and closes the gap to joint training to as little as 1.0 point in fault type classification, while matching it in fault zone localization. Moreover, it remains the best method when the replay buffer is substantially reduced. These results show that prototype-guided replay is an effective, memory-bounded way to keep fault diagnosis models up to date as the grid evolves, while validation on field measurements remains a necessary next step.

Emad Efatinasab, Nahal Azadi, Davide Dalle Pezze +3

Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova. · School of Computing, Newcastle University.

Class-Incremental Learning Prototype-Based Classification Replay-Based Continual Learning Fault Localization Fault Diagnosis Power Systems

Oct 29, 2025cs.LG

Machine Learning Guided Optimal Transmission Switching to Mitigate Wildfire Ignition Risk

To mitigate acute wildfire ignition risks, utilities de-energize power lines in high-risk areas. The Optimal Power Shutoff (OPS) problem optimizes line energization statuses to manage wildfire ignition risks through de-energizations while reducing load shedding. OPS problems are computationally challenging Mixed-Integer Linear Programs (MILPs) that must be solved rapidly and frequently in operational settings. For a particular power system, OPS instances share a common structure with varying parameters related to wildfire risks, loads, and renewable generation. This motivates the use of Machine Learning (ML) for solving OPS problems by exploiting shared patterns across instances. In this paper, we develop an ML-guided framework that quickly produces high-quality de-energization decisions by extending existing ML-guided MILP solution methods while integrating domain knowledge on the number of energized and de-energized lines. Results on a large-scale realistic California-based synthetic test system show that the proposed ML-guided method produces high-quality solutions faster than traditional optimization methods.

Weimin Huang, Ryan Piansky, Bistra Dilkina +1

Department of Computer Science University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA, USA · School of Electrical and Computer Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, USA

Mixed-Integer Linear Programming Learning to Optimize Power Systems

Sep 26, 2025cs.LG

Physics-informed GNN for medium-high voltage AC power flow with edge-aware attention and line search correction operator

Physics-informed graph neural networks (PIGNNs) have emerged as fast AC power-flow solvers that can replace the classic NewtonRaphson (NR) solvers, especially when thousands of scenarios must be evaluated. However, current PIGNNs still need accuracy improvements at parity speed; in particular, the soft constraint on the physics loss is inoperative at inference, which can deter operational adoption. We address this with PIGNN-Attn-LS, combining an edge-aware attention mechanism that explicitly encodes line physics via per-edge biases to form a fully differentiable knownoperator layer inside the computation graph, with a backtracking line-search-based globalized correction operator that restores an operative decrease criterion at inference. Training and testing use a realistic High-/Medium-Voltage scenario generator, with NR used only to construct reference states. On held-out HV cases consisting of 4-32-bus grids, PIGNN-Attn-LS achieves a test RMSE of 0.00033 p.u. in voltage and 0.08 deg in angle, outperforming the PIGNN-MLP baseline by 99.5% and 87.1%, respectively. With streaming micro-batches, it delivers 2-5x faster batched inference than NR on 4-1024-bus grids.

Changhun Kim, Timon Conrad, Redwanul Karim +6

Pattern Recognition Lab, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany · Institute of Electrical Energy Systems, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany

Efficient Neural Network Inference Graph Attention Networks Physics-Informed ML Physics-Informed GNNs Power Systems

May 1, 2025cs.LG

Predicting Estimated Times of Restoration for Electrical Outages Using Longitudinal Tabular Transformers

Utilities publish Estimated Times of Restoration (ETRs) for customer-facing storm outages, and their accuracy governs whether customers can make sound decisions about food, medical equipment, and relocation. Prior work treats ETR as static tabular regression in which each outage contributes one record, discarding the fact that every development of an outage, from crew assignment through dispatch, suspension, damage assessment and partial restoration, is recorded as a revision. We reformulate ETR prediction as longitudinal tabular regression and introduce a Longitudinal Tabular Transformer (LTT), an axial-attention model that consumes the revisions preceding a prediction and issues a refined estimate at every one. On 242{,}928 storm-attributed outages from a cohort of 526{,}468 filtered events and 10.0 million revisions at six operating companies, LTT reduces customer-weighted asymmetric error at all six, by a median of 36.9,% against the estimates the utilities published during the same storms and 11.3,% against the strongest learned baseline at each. It is the only method improving on the incumbent's satisfaction impact at all six companies while also reducing root mean squared error at all six. Stratification by revision index shows that LTT error is largest at the first revision, where no history is available, and falls monotonically as revisions accumulate.

Bogireddy Sai Prasanna Teja, Valliappan Muthukaruppan, Carls Benjamin

Exelon Corporation, Chicago, IL, USA

Event Time Prediction Transformer Tabular ML Tabular Regression Power Systems