Predictors

Accurate posterior prediction need not require accurate approximation of Bayesian updates. We prove that an unbounded gap between the update maps can coexist with vanishing predictive KL for every fixed finite $K\ge2$ in a stationary symmetric Gaussian HMM. Exact Bayesian mixing and an explicit deterministic radial filter act on the same $K-1$ belief coordinates. As $q\to0^+$, their separation in centered logits in the worst case grows at least linearly in the natural confidence scale $L_K(q)$, while their categorical $D_{\mathrm{KL}}(\mathrm{exact}\|\mathrm{radial})$ vanishes at the same explicit witness. Along stationary HMM trajectories, the expected terminal KL between filtered posteriors also converges to zero at $H(q)=\lceil-\log(q)/c\rceil+1$. Typical blocks without switches drive both filters into a common confidence cone, where softmax curvature suppresses their disagreement; a single Gaussian maximal event controls adaptive noise. A sweep with equally spaced Gaussians over $K\in\{2,4,8\}$ illustrates the opposing trends, and binary controls at long horizons compare saturating and nonsaturating recurrences. The result isolates two missing links between internal update gaps and predictive cost: the contribution of separating states to expected loss and decoder sensitivity. Thus even an unbounded internal update gap does not by itself certify predictive failure. The construction is fixed in $K$ and does not provide a universal criterion for when compression is harmless or characterize when internal gaps must incur task loss.

Assessing suicide risk from social media text is a small-data, high-stakes setting requiring not only severity prediction but also supporting evidence and clinically relevant risk and protective factors. Yet common NLP techniques, including model scaling, synthetic data, loss reweighting, ensembling, and threshold tuning, are often applied without testing whether their gains hold up under severe class imbalance, coupled outputs, and limited author-level data. We study 1,635 clinician-annotated posts and audit 31 pre-specified techniques from 7 methodological families through roughly 300 controlled experiments on author-disjoint partitions. We found no prior audit of this playbook in this regime. The findings guide a task-grounded system for three outputs: 4-level suicide risk, evidence spans, and 24 clinical risk and protective factors. Only 5 of 31 comparisons produced reliable gains. We reformulate factor prediction as entailment between each post and its codebook definitions, using an architecturally diverse ensemble with class-balanced training and score rescaling. Risk predictions condition a 7-model evidence tagger ensemble; evidence restricts symbolic risk rules; and a difficult risk class is routed separately. The factor predictor remains independent because risk evidence provides no additional factor signal. We also correct a mismatch between validation scores used for threshold fitting and test-time ensemble scores through deployment-consistent calibration, yielding the largest improvement to the factor system. The final system achieves 0.8203 for risk, 0.7953 for evidence, and 0.7045 macro-F1 for factors, with a 0.7781 composite, ranking third among 53 teams. We call the underlying principle task-conditioned technique selection: retain techniques only when task-specific knowledge, structure, or empirical evidence justifies them.

Training changes a network's predictions while allocating task-relevant structure across its internal units. In an overparameterized ReLU network, several neurons can begin with exactly the same functional role, yet one may acquire a teacher feature while the others become redundant. We call the identity of that neuron feature ownership and ask whether it can be controlled by a parameter choice invisible to the initial predictor. In a tractable Gaussian teacher--student model, we fix the complete initial function and vary only a positive-homogeneous scaling gauge. Opposite gauges produce distinct feature trajectories and a sharp $Θ(D^2)$ separation in specialization time that no global change of clock can explain. Among any fixed number of initially duplicate students, assigning the favorable gauge to one neuron deterministically selects it as the owner and drives the remaining functional contribution to zero. An exact reaction--transport decomposition attributes the effect to different mobilities for changing a feature's coefficient and direction. We prove global selection and functional pruning, extend finite-time selection to visible perturbations and small-step full-batch gradient descent, and verify the predicted loss, alignment, pruning, and dissipation trajectories in population and finite-sample training. The initial predictor therefore determines neither when the feature is learned nor which neuron learns it.

Should a completion model spend extra test-time compute by iterating, or spend a similar parameter budget on a wider one-shot predictor? The answer is easily confounded by denoising curricula, corruption augmentation, capacity, and unpaired evaluation. We study this question in LiDAR semantic scene completion by comparing a one-shot predictor, a parameter-matched wider predictor, and a weight-tied multigrid refiner initialized from the same frozen predictor. The protocol separates coherent region removal, independent thinning, range-dependent attenuation, and additive clutter while preserving exact scene-condition pairing. Across five training seeds and 815 SemanticKITTI sequence-08 frames, the full iterative system improves mIoU over the wide control by 0.911 points under contiguous angular removal, with a 95% moving-block bootstrap interval of [0.804, 1.040] that clears a predeclared 0.5-point practical margin. Under independent 75% thinning, iteration adds only 0.300 points [0.166, 0.436], whereas observation-family augmentation adds 5.975 points [5.662, 6.140]. Neither intervention repairs additive clutter. The iterative system also costs 10.74 ms and 0.75 GiB per frame, versus 6.25 ms and 0.23 GiB for the wide control. These results establish a geometry-conditioned empirical boundary rather than a universal advantage: coherent gaps can justify fixed-depth refinement, broadly thinned evidence is addressed more effectively by training coverage, and spurious evidence requires a different robustness mechanism.

The CLIP Q-score is a novel, safe, fully reproducible, and computationally efficient method for extracting objective product quality metrics from visual data using contrastive language-image pre-training. We introduce the technique and provide an extensive application to real estate data from an online platform ($\sim500,000$ images). Our open-source metric aligns with LLM assessments and proves to be a powerful predictor of housing market prices for both sales and rentals. We also show that a higher CLIP Q-store is associated with better liquidity (reduced time on the market), especially for properties on sale.

Machine-learning predictors estimate processor performance far faster than cycle-level simulation. For design-space exploration, however, the valuable test is not merely reproducing the usual hardware ordering, but identifying how different hardware configurations rank on individual program phases. We evaluate four ML-predictors in two design regimes: \emph{Structural Parameters} (SP), varying hardware resources such as issue width, ROB size, and cache capacity; and \emph{Behavioral Policies} (BP), varying prefetching and replacement algorithms. In the SP regime, aggregate ranking is strong, yet counter-intuitive windows(CIW)---where the configuration expected to be slower is faster---constitute $22.4\%$ of non-tied windows across five pairs with a clear architectural prior. CIW match across these pairs is only $23.3$--$39.9\%$; every point estimate is below the $50\%$ random strict-ordering reference. The BP regime presents a different failure: ground-truth ties cover $37.8\%$ of pair-windows, most strict pairs have margins of only a few cycles, and no model family reliably beats a feature-free majority baseline. NeuroScalar and SimNet fall below that baseline, Concorde is statistically tied with it, and the best selected OneDSE head improves by only $2.1$ percentage points. Accuracy rises mainly at large margins. We further show that this failure is not a matter of model capacity: an information-theoretic analysis reveals that when ranking outcomes depend on hidden microarchitectural state absent from the instruction stream, no trace-based predictor can exceed the Bayes accuracy determined by observable inputs alone. Thus high cycle or aggregate ranking accuracy can reflect mastery of easy, high-margin cases while missing the local reversals that carry the most architectural insight and for which cycle-level simulation remains indispensable.

AI evaluation can support the wrong inference when an in-domain benchmark success does not survive distribution shift, or when the benchmark endpoint is entangled with a design factor. We study this problem in CRISPRi perturbation-effect prediction, evaluating a frozen Geneformer representation under a locked, pre-registered protocol: heads and model selection were frozen before test evaluation; the protocol required external outcome labels to remain withheld until final unblinding; and analysis-governing decisions were fixed before the evaluations they govern. In-distribution on the Virtual Cell Challenge (VCC), the frozen representation carries measurable predictive information beyond a dimension-matched random-feature control (Delta R^2 = +0.1645, 95% CI [+0.1375, +0.1920]), satisfying the pre-registered informativeness gate required before interpreting transfer. It then fails zero-shot transfer on both external screens (Spearman rho = -0.139 and -0.267), lying below that control on each. Adding a predefined magnitude block improves the representation externally (Delta rho = +0.032 and +0.143) but, under the frozen primary head, does not rescue transfer: both remain negative. A pre-registered, count-adjusted max-response secondary is positively associated with the outcome on both screens; we report it as correlational and secondary, not as a recovered magnitude signal. Finally, the VCC endpoint is strongly sample-size associated: a count-only linear model reaches R^2 = +0.4325, versus +0.2589 for the four magnitude scalars; adding those scalars to cell count improves R^2 by only +0.0017, so much of the aggregate-magnitude signal overlaps with cell count. This case study shows how locking the evaluation, harmonizing the measured endpoint, and separating primary from secondary evidence can change the inference supported by an AI benchmark.

Many real-world graphs support multiple predictive tasks over the same underlying structure, creating an opportunity to reuse supervision across node classification (NC) and link prediction (LP). However, existing evaluations often rely on incompatible splits, observed-graph assumptions, and negative sampling rules, making conclusions about same-graph cross-task transfer unreliable. We formalize same-graph NC-LP transfer and propose a leakage-free protocol that fixes node and edge splits, uses a shared message-passing graph that excludes evaluated edges, and employs fixed negatives for LP. Across three backbones (GCN, GraphSAGE, GPS), we find that transfer is strongly directional and predictable: NC $\to$ LP is consistently beneficial on homophilic graphs, while LP $\to$ NC is fragile and can even degrade accuracy under naive representation reuse. LP $\to$ NC becomes reliably positive mainly in a structure-dominant regime where LP is easy but NC is unsaturated, suggesting that LP acts as structural pretraining. Finally, we introduce the CoTask Score (CTS) to summarize joint NC+LP utility when a shared encoder must serve both tasks, and show that simple dataset statistics, especially homophily, can guide mechanism choice and help avoid negative transfer.

Steel surface defect segmentation is critical for industrial quality inspection, yet existing methods struggle with elongated, anisotropic defects such as cracks and scratches due to the isotropic receptive fields of standard convolutions and rigid sampling grids that cannot adapt to irregular defect boundaries. To address these limitations, we propose Strip-based Predictor for Deformable Convolutional Networks (SPDCN) with two key innovations. The \textbf{Fuzzy-enhanced Multi-scale Context Module (FMCM)} employs group-wise multi-branch convolutions with an intuitionistic fuzzy channel attention mechanism to adaptively capture multi-scale contextual information across varying defect sizes. The \textbf{Adaptive Direction-Aware Deformable Convolution (ADADC)} replaces the conventional offset predictor with decoupled horizontal and vertical strip convolutions, enabling the deformable sampling grid to anisotropically align with the principal orientation of elongated defects. Extensive experiments on public steel surface defect benchmarks demonstrate that SPDCN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving 89.60% mIoU on NEU-Seg with only 3.54M parameters. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/DWlzm .

Overparameterized models often have continuous parameter symmetries, so different parameters define the same predictor. We show that PAC--Bayesian analysis should be performed on the quotient predictor space: pushing a prior and posterior to the quotient preserves the empirical and population Gibbs risks while removing the nonnegative KL contribution caused solely by how the two distributions differ among parameterizations of the same predictor. Quotienting alone does not determine which prior to use. We construct a canonical choice of one parameterization for each predictor and account for the geometric volume of its equivalent parameterizations. This transforms a neutral reference prior into a data-independent prior that reflects the model's implicit bias. It approximates the ideal but inadmissible posterior-matched prior, which would minimize the KL term by depending on the training data. The resulting certificate is tighter exactly when this geometry-induced prior has smaller KL divergence from the learned quotient posterior than the neutral prior. We test this prediction in Fourier regression with a Hadamard parameterization and in Query-Key attention, using ordinary SGD without an explicit regularizer. The implicit-bias prior reduces the mean quotient-space KL by $40.69\%$ and the mean PAC--Bayes certificate by $21.40\%$ in the Fourier-Hadamard experiment. The smaller, prior-scale-dependent improvement in Query-Key attention confirms the predicted conditional nature of the effect.

We introduce Retrieval-Augmented Interpretable Learning (RAIL), a probabilistic meta-learning framework for zero-shot generation of task-specific interpretable models that synthesizes coefficient-space structure from natural-language task descriptions and a memory of previously learned task-specific predictors. RAIL retrieves related source tasks, transfers structure through coefficient space, and generates a new predictor in the original diagnostic-feature space, enabling zero-shot and few-shot clinical procedure prediction with feature-level explanations. Its probabilistic formulation provides uncertainty over retrieval, model coefficients, and predictions, supporting reliability-aware deployment: uncertain predictions or unstable explanations can be flagged for additional clinical review rather than treated as automatic decisions. This makes RAIL particularly suited for healthcare settings, where prediction tasks are highly long-tailed, new clinical targets arise frequently, and models must remain inspectable, uncertainty-aware, and compatible with human oversight. Across long-tailed clinical procedure prediction tasks, RAIL maintains reliable performance across data-availability regimes: it achieves 73.4% accuracy in the held-out zero-shot settings, where no supervised task-specific model can be trained, and remains near 73.2% accuracy in the extreme few-shot regime with only 2-4 examples, where supervised task-specific models perform close to chance. RAIL further benefits from clinically informed task representations and yields retrieval, uncertainty, and coefficient-level diagnostics that make model behavior more transparent. These results suggest a path toward scalable clinical prediction systems that can adapt to new tasks while preserving interpretability and reliability.

Pseudo-nitzschia diatoms pose recurrent risks to coastal ecosystems and shellfish harvesting along the Portuguese Atlantic coast. Here we develop and evaluate a spatio-temporal machine-learning framework to predict harmful algal bloom (HAB) occurrence using exclusively satellite-derived predictors under realistic forecasting constraints. We characterised environmental and biological variability across shellfish production zones (L1-L9) using 5,882 observations, providing system-wide context. Predictive models were developed for zones L1-L2, a hotspot for Pseudo-nitzschia and domoic acid events, using a decade-long dataset (2013-2023; 1,440 observations; more than 1,000 satellite-based predictors including sea surface temperature, an upwelling index, chlorophyll-a, and plankton functional types). Sampling locations were partitioned into ecologically meaningful sub-regions using a river-aware spatial clustering scheme. A stringent spatio-temporal cross-validation strategy that simultaneously withholds entire years and spatial clusters prevents leakage and closely mimics real-world forecasting conditions. HAB occurrence proved moderately predictable across model classes and feature configurations. Ensemble tree-based methods achieved the strongest discrimination: Random Forest reached 0.74 +/- 0.05 with environmental predictors; Extra Trees reached 0.77 +/- 0.06 with biological variables added. Feature-importance analyses revealed that seasonal structure, spatial context, and lagged environmental conditions dominate model decisions, while biological indicators refine bloom likelihood within physically favourable periods. The framework demonstrates operationally relevant skill for satellite-supported HAB early-warning systems along eastern boundary upwelling coasts.

Process industries have accumulated validated specialist models, yet sensor drift, feedstock variation, and regime switching cause these models to degrade systematically in new scenarios. Collecting new labeled data and retraining is costly, while continuing with the original model incurs persistent bias. Existing adaptation methods require modifying model parameters with sufficient labeled data, making rapid response on deployed systems difficult. Using LLMs as direct predictors risks hallucinations and uncontrollable outputs. Such predictors also cannot incorporate unstructured scenario knowledge from the field. To address these limitations, this article proposes Reasoning-Driven Open Adaptation for Specialist Models (ROAM), a framework that uses LLM world knowledge and reasoning to adapt frozen specialist models to unseen scenarios without retraining. ROAM confines all corrections to a low-dimensional, semantically interpretable latent space. LLM-generated scenario judgments and online observations are fused under a unified probabilistic framework. A risk-constrained mechanism suppresses corrections under unreliable LLM evidence or abrupt scenario shifts and falls back to the original frozen model when evidence is insufficient. Experiments on a mineral thickening process and the public IndPenSim penicillin fermentation dataset show that ROAM reduces MAE by over 20% in major shift settings such as hidden shifts with only 839 additional parameters and under 0.02,ms per-step overhead. These results indicate that LLM reasoning can be turned into a conservative adaptation signal for industrial models already in service.

Self-supervised latent world models can assign a surprise score to driving scenarios without any human labels. A natural follow-up question is whether such a model, trained on driving data from one geographic region, can generalize its notion of complexity to unseen cities and sensor configurations. We study this question through a controlled transfer experiment: we train JEPA-based world models on nuPlan data (Pittsburgh, Boston, Singapore) and evaluate zero-shot on held-out Argoverse 2 validation scenarios from Miami and Austin. We find that models trained on geographically diverse data generalize significantly better than models trained on equal amounts of single-geography data. In a matched-scale ablation at 63,000 scenarios per condition (n=3 seeds each), combined training reduces mean surprise score by 16.5% relative to nuPlan-only training (0.228 +/- 0.015 vs 0.273 +/- 0.008). Notably, training on 200,000 AV2-only scenarios (3x more data from one geography) still produces higher surprise (0.264) than the combined 63K model, suggesting that geographic diversity is a stronger predictor of cross-domain generalization than raw data volume.

Motivated by the challenge of stabilizing a general unknown linear dynamical system (LDS) from observations, we study the natural prerequisite of online prediction. Our goal is to achieve sublinear regret with a memory footprint that adapts to the intrinsic complexity of the dynamics rather than the full hidden-state dimension. We focus on the practically central regime of systems with low instability complexity -- eigenvalues outside the real stable interval that do not decay rapidly, together with non-semisimple modes -- potentially embedded in an otherwise stable real spectrum of much higher dimension; we write $k$ for this count. This regime is the primary setting in which stabilization is plausible: we show that many systems with high instability complexity cannot be stabilized without exponentially large controls. Thus, prediction is meaningful for stabilization precisely when the instability complexity is small. Within this regime, we introduce a unified online algorithm that handles every LDS (including non-diagonalizable systems with complex or exploding modes) with a learnable parameter count of $\widetilde{O}(k)$. Finally, we prove a lower bound showing that $k$ is a valid complexity measure: any filter-based predictor needs at least $k$ filters. Experiments corroborate our theory: on a high-dimensional system, our predictor sharply outperforms prior methods at an equal parameter budget.

Most existing multitask learning approaches are limited by their reliance on task-specific loss functions tailored to the scale and type of each outcome. When outcomes differ across tasks, these losses are generally not directly comparable, which makes it difficult to formulate a unified objective and may limit information sharing across tasks. We propose a multitask transformation framework in which task-specific responses may differ through unknown monotone transformations. Motivated by high-dimensional biological applications in which the predictor dimension may diverge with the sample size while only a common subset of predictors is informative, we consider shared sparsity across tasks. Under this framework, we estimate the target functions and identify important predictors by optimizing a smoothed rank-based criterion with a group-Lasso penalty, implemented through a multitask deep neural network with a shared first layer. We establish the nonasymptotic excess-risk bounds, and variable-selection consistency for the proposed estimator. Simulation studies show that the proposed method achieves competitive prediction and variable-selection performance compared with competing approaches. Analyses of gene-expression studies with continuous, binary, and mixed outcomes further illustrate that the proposed method improves prediction and identifies biologically meaningful shared predictors.

As AI systems become more capable, training procedures that optimize for downstream outcomes risk introducing implicit agency: goal-directed behavior that designers never specified. We present a formal safety argument for the Scientist AI (SAI) Predictor, trained to approximate the Bayesian posterior conditioned on a dataset of "epistemically contextualized" natural-language statements. We argue that such a Predictor can honestly predict agents, actions, and their consequences without itself being an agent that selects outputs to achieve goals. This rests on data representation and on the training procedure. Epistemic contextualization of text distinguishes latent factual claims from communication acts, so expressions of goals are treated as evidence to be explained rather than drives the model adopts. With a posterior-seeking training objective, this is intended to drive the Predictor toward calibrated, cautious predictions. Training proceeds so downstream effects of deploying a prediction never serve as a reward signal; any agency the system needs is supplied by explicit scaffolding constrained by guardrails. We prove that, under assumptions on the training dynamics and on the argued sparsity of dangerous Predictors, the probability that training produces a Predictor whose guarded deployment carries residual harm above a specified threshold is small: a dangerous Predictor would have to underestimate harm in a coordinated way across many queries while such coordinated patterns are rare under the initialization distribution and receive no direct training signal. Safety and accuracy are jointly supported in this framework, since the constraints that secure accuracy are the same ones that make coordinated deception costly. These guarantees against misalignment and agency arising from within the Predictor itself do not preclude the use of the Predictor as part of an agentic system.

A central challenge in statistical modeling is identifying the subset of features that belong in the true regression model. The classical best subset selection problem, recently made tractable via mixed-integer optimization (MIO), finds the globally optimal sparse solution. It does not, however, make use of any information beyond the observed data. In many applied settings, domain experts can meaningfully rank or score the relevance of candidate predictors, yet no existing framework integrates such probabilistic expert assessments directly into the best-subsets objective. This paper presents Expert-Implied Bayesian Best Subsets (EBBS), a method that incorporates domain-expert probability estimates of feature relevance into the MIO best-subsets problem through a maximum a posteriori (MAP) framework. Expert views from multiple respondents are aggregated into a single prior probability per feature using the Poisson binomial distribution for marginal probability estimates, the pairwise win rate for pairwise comparisons, or the normalized mean rank for ordinal rankings. This probability enters the objective function as a log-odds penalty term that smoothly encourages or discourages the selection of each feature consistent with the expert consensus. This paper provides analytic derivations of the MAP formulation and characterizes its theoretical properties. The proposed model reduces to Best Subsets when experts all have no views. Empirical results on synthetic and real datasets are forthcoming.

Although most undergraduates now use large language models (LLMs), a form of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) for academic writing, no validated method distinguishes the qualitatively different ways students rely on them. Existing instruments assess reliance solely by frequency of use, a measure that, as this study shows, inadvertently rewards dependence on AI rather than recognizing students' own intellectual contribution. Conducted at a public minority-serving university and grounded in the AI Literacy Framework, Expectancy-Value Theory, and Biggs's Presage-Process-Product model, the study drew on 382 undergraduates, 14 interviews, and 396 open-ended survey responses. Four distinct reliance types were identified and confirmed: Strategic (34.3%), Instrumental (30.9%), Dialogic (30.4%), and Dependent (4.5%). Students' value and cost beliefs predicted the intensity of their reliance on LLMs, whereas their AI literacy predicted the type of reliance they adopted, indicating that differentiated support is needed. Notably, Strategic users, those who engaged AI most deliberately, scored lowest on standard outcome measures. This pattern reflects a limitation of current instruments, which index AI's contribution rather than writing quality, thereby penalizing students who show the greatest independent thinking. Analysis also revealed an additional group, roughly 13%, who declined to use AI for ethical rather than practical reasons, and who existing frameworks overlook. These findings carry implications for AI literacy programs, the measurement of student learning outcomes, and equitable AI policy at minority-serving institutions.

In financial forecasting, predictive performance depends not only on which model is trained, but also on how the trained model is deployed. We study this issue in multi-horizon volatility forecasting. Our starting point is that a trained multi-output (MIMO) forecaster does not define a single deployable predictor: by changing the inference-time rollout rule, the same trained model induces a family of forecasts with different accuracy and cost profiles. Across 20 stock-volatility series, three forecast horizons, and architectures ranging from linear models to PatchTST, we find that non-default rollout rules often improve over standard MIMO deployment. However, the best fixed rule varies substantially across architectures and horizons, making any single static replacement unreliable. We therefore evaluate validation-based deployment policies over the induced rule family. Under the primary MSE objective, validation-selected singletons provide a low-cost improvement over default MIMO, while small rule subsets recover much of the benefit of larger ensembles at substantially lower inference cost. We also find that policy rankings are metric-sensitive: MSE-selected policies do not transfer uniformly to QLIKE, a finance-standard volatility loss. These results show that inference-time deployment is a meaningful source of adaptiveness in financial forecasting, and that trained volatility forecasters should be evaluated not only by their architecture, but also by their deployment policy.

The physical anastylosis of collapsed architectural monuments -- the meticulous reassembly of fallen stone elements into their original structural configuration -- represents one of the most intellectually demanding challenges in conservation science. Traditional approaches depend heavily on expert archaeologist judgement and manual block-by-block correspondence, a process that is both labour-intensive and inherently subjective. Inspired by the combinatorial complexity of this problem as manifested in the game of Jenga, we present Jenga Inverse Predictor , a GPU-accelerated deep learning framework that addresses structural anastylosis as an inverse prediction task. Given an image of a collapsed block assembly, JIP-2 reconstructs the most probable prior tower configuration by: (1) implementing a complete rigid-body physics engine with OBB/SAT collision detection and a Projected Gauss-Seidel (PGS) contact solver accelerated with Numba JIT and CuPy CUDA; (2) applying the analytical force thresholds of Ziglar (CMU, 2006) -- F_app = 3mu_smg (Y-axis, torque-free) and F_app = 4mu_smg (X-axis, torque risk) -- over three friction levels (mu_s in {0.25, 0.40, 0.60}) across 450 simulated episodes; (3) training a dual-stream ResNet-18 that injects a friction one-hot vector and jointly predicts block removal count, per-position removal probabilities, centre-of-mass imbalance, and Ziglar torque risk; and (4) generating a smooth 3-D video of the block-by-block reverse reconstruction. We discuss implications for computer-assisted anastylosis at the UNESCO Maya site of Uxmal, Yucatan, and provide a detailed technical description of the full pipeline, architecture, and loss formulation.

Learning Koopman operators with autoencoders enables linear prediction in a latent space, but long-horizon rollouts often drift off the learned manifold, leading to phase and amplitude errors on systems with switching, continuous spectra, or strong transients. We introduce two complementary components that make Koopman predictors more robust. First, we add an attention-free latent memory (AFT) block that aggregates a short window of past latents to produce a corrected latent before each Koopman update. Unlike multi-head attention, AFT operates in linear time and adds only $\approx$30k parameters ($3d^2 + T^2$, fewer than matched multi-head attention), yet captures the local temporal context needed to suppress error divergence. Second, we propose dynamic re-encoding: lightweight, online change-point triggers (EWMA, CUSUM, and sequential two-sample tests) that detect latent drift and project predictions back onto the autoencoder manifold. Across three benchmark systems -- Duffing oscillator, Repressilator, IRMA -- our model consistently reduces error accumulation compared to a Koopman autoencoder and matched-capacity multi-head attention. We also compare against GRU and Transformer autoencoders, evaluated both from initial conditions and with a 50-step context, and find that Koopman+AFT (with optional re-encoding) attains markedly lower long-horizon error while maintaining lower inference latency. We report improvements over horizons up to 1000 steps, together with ablations over trigger policies. The result is a fast, compact predictor that stays on the learned manifold over long horizons.

Frameworks for ensuring fairness in machine learning typically focus on learning fair models from existing data. But this endeavor is often undermined by biases already present in that data. We therefore look to modify the data acquisition process itself to help gather fairer data that is inherently more suitable for training fair predictors. To this end, we introduce FairBED, which provides novel formulations for quantifying the fairness of datasets themselves based on the idea that fair datasets should be uninformative about sensitive attributes. We then use this to construct practical fairness-aware Bayesian experimental design (BED) objectives that maximize expected information gain about the target quantity of interest while minimizing expected information gain about sensitive attributes. We further derive a theoretical link between FairBED and demographic parity, and show empirically that models trained on data gathered using FairBED provide improved fairness-accuracy trade-offs compared to randomly acquired data and conventional BED.

Transformer language models have become established tools for modeling human sentence processing, with measures such as surprisal and attention entropy serving as effective predictors of reading difficulty that together capture complementary aspects of processing load. Here, we explore a related class of transformer models: energy-based transformers, which provide a principled formal link to associative memory models, bringing processing research into direct contact with the broader literature on Hopfield networks and dense associative memory. To our knowledge, this is the first exploration of an energy-based transformer measure in computational psycholinguistics. Across reading-time corpora (Natural Stories, UCL eye-tracking, UCL self-paced reading), the energy measure is a robust predictor of reading times, providing significant fit beyond surprisal and entropy in all three. In a controlled experiment on relative clause processing, energy at a single layer captures the well-known object/subject asymmetry. We find evidence that it subsumes effects attributable to both attention entropy and surprisal, suggesting that energy may serve as a single unified predictor where multiple complementary measures have previously been required.

Delirium is a common and serious complication in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), associated with increased morbidity, prolonged hospital stays, and higher healthcare costs. Despite its prevalence, early prediction and prevention remain challenging. Environmental factors such as ambient sound and light may influence the onset of delirium, yet they are often overlooked in risk assessments. In this study, we examined whether light intensity and sound pressure levels can independently predict delirium across multiple prediction horizons. We evaluated four efficient sequential neural network models on data collected from 9 ICUs across 309 patients to predict delirium for 10 prediction-window sizes. We reported feature importance and direction of influence using Shapley Additive Explanations analysis. The convolutional model achieved the strongest discrimination, with AUC = 0.80 on sound data and on combined data. Sound features were the dominant predictors overall. Integrating sound with light improved short-term ($<1$ week) prediction, with the combined model assigning the highest risk immediately after the sensing period. These findings suggest that passive ambient sensing, especially sound, can add a clinically meaningful, interpretable signal for delirium risk estimation and offer a practical pathway to enrich multimodal ICU prediction and prevention strategies.

We present a convolutional variational autoencoder for cryptocurrency implied-volatility surfaces, together with a deployable predictor that combines it with a quadratic smile re-fit through a deterministic per-tenor routing rule. Trained on 6,034 fully-filled hourly Binance Options surfaces of BTC and ETH spanning May-October 2023 and parameterised on a common $6 \times 7$ tenor-delta grid, the model attains a hidden-cell surface-completion RMSE in the 0.94-1.56 vol-point range across both markets and mask rates 10-50%. The hybrid predictor attains 0.83 vol points at 50% masking against 7.00 for the smile re-fit alone, an eightfold reduction obtained at no additional inference cost. Under structurally-correlated hole patterns that emulate the withdrawal of an entire tenor of strikes, the smile re-fit incurs 9.6-13.1 vol points of error while the learned model remains at 1.5-1.9, isolating a regime in which the generative model is the only viable predictor. Joint training on BTC and ETH improves the in-distribution model on both markets by 9-27% relative to the better-performing single-symbol counterpart, indicating a substantially shared vol-surface manifold across the two largest cryptocurrencies over the observation window. The hybrid is calendar- and butterfly-arbitrage-free at the listed strikes, a property that the parametric smile re-fit alone fails at high mask rates. The per-snapshot reconstruction error of the trained model flags the late-October ETF-anticipation rally and the August $17$, $2023$ flash crash as elevated-error periods without supervision. All training and evaluation infrastructure is released to support reproducible follow-on work.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

Multimodal $ΔΔG$ predictors integrating protein language models with inverse-folding representations achieve strong in-distribution accuracy on the Megascale dataset but exhibit limited robustness on out-of-distribution (OOD) proteins, persistent forward-reverse bias on paired-mutation benchmarks, and under-representation of rare stabilizing mutations. Existing approaches address these limitations primarily through additional architectural components, leaving optimization-level intervention comparatively underexplored. We introduce a constraint-aware optimization framework combining Balanced Mean Squared Error, a Siamese anti-symmetric regularizer, and a novel OOD-margin consistency loss on the per-position feature representation, requiring no architectural changes to the SPURS backbone. Across eleven benchmarks and three random seeds, the framework improves Spearman correlation on S669 from 0.486 to 0.540 ($σ=0.002$ across seeds), matching the published SPURS baseline (0.50) without architectural modification, and on S461 from 0.653 to 0.711, with consistent smaller gains on five additional OOD datasets. A controlled diagnostic on Ssym reveals that anti-symmetric training does not eliminate systematic forward-reverse bias, indicating that gains arise through implicit regularization rather than exact thermodynamic constraint enforcement.

Modern reasoning models can allocate different amounts of test-time computation, such as thinking tokens, model calls, or compute budget, to different tasks. Existing methods generally drive this allocation by predicted difficulty and spend more compute where it is expected to raise accuracy. This implicitly assumes that all failures cost the same, since an accuracy objective weights every task equally. However, such an assumption does not hold in deployment: A typo in a log message and a migration that corrupts a production database both count as one benchmark failure, but their real-world costs are fundamentally different. To fill this gap, we propose consequence-aware test-time compute allocation. Instead of routing compute only by predicted difficulty, we use a lightweight predictor to estimate from the issue text how costly a task would be if solved incorrectly. The scheduler then routes higher-consequence tasks to larger compute tiers or higher thinking budgets under the same total budget. We conduct main experiments on SWE-bench Lite and evaluate cross-dataset behavior on Multi-SWE-bench mini, covering 700 software-engineering tasks in total. Our results reveal that consequence and difficulty are approximately orthogonal under various annotations, and that current thinking models do not allocate compute sufficiently according to consequence. Moreover, our issue-only predictor never misclassifies a high-consequence task as low-consequence across the 300 SWE-bench tasks. Under matched compute budgets, our consequence-aware scheduler reduces cost-weighted loss by 22% to 33% relative to difficulty-aware routing; in particular, the priority-aware variant, which routes by per-task cost scaled by the marginal-utility signal, crosses 30%, and its deployable predictor-driven version retains over 90% of the oracle gain.

Different predictors often excel on different inputs, so picking the best one per instance promises higher accuracy than committing to a single model. In practice, selectors trained from logged data routinely fail to beat the strongest single predictor. Three causes typically go unseparated before more tuning is applied: a mismatched learner, a state that does not predict which model wins, or buffer-to-deployment label shift. A three-stage diagnostic rules them out on a shared buffer. Stage1 estimates a local ceiling on oracle recovery from $k$-NN label consistency. Stage2 asks whether paired BC and offline-RL learners (BC, DQN, and CQL across penalty weights) reach that ceiling. Stage~3 ablates the selector state to test whether richer features would raise it. The combined verdict points to the most promising next step: tuning the learner, redesigning the state, or collecting new data. We apply it to selecting among five dropout-prediction models on edX clickstream data. Across 16 windows, the oracle beats the strongest single base model by 9.7 accuracy points on average, yet BC, DQN, and CQL land in the same test-accuracy band below it (robust to a tenfold buffer sweep and $N{=}2{,}000$ held-out examples). The bottleneck is local representational ambiguity: CQL closes the imitation gap without a deployment gain (not conservatism), regret clusters tightly across learners (not tie-breaking), and the three learners converge on test accuracy (not shift). The next iteration should change the state or collect new data, not tune the offline learner further.

Modeling interactions among multimodal, high-dimensional data is intrinsically challenging due to ultra-high dimensionality and complex dependence structure with high level noise. Screening methods are effective for reducing dimensionality, but most existing approaches shrink only the predictor space while retaining all outcomes. In cross-modal analyses, different outcomes often select different predictor subsets, so the union remains large and the response dimension is unchanged, limiting the practical benefit of screening. This gives rise to heavy computational burdens and poor interpretability. To address these limitations, we propose a new screening framework, Graph Independence Dual Screening (GIDS), which simultaneously reduces the dimensionality of response variables and predictors. We design computationally efficient algorithms that facilitate downstream selection procedures, improving accuracy and scalability, and establish supporting theoretical results. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that GIDS outperforms existing methods that screen only predictors. To illustrate its utility, we applied GIDS to the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset, analyzing interactions between genome-wide 865,353 DNA methylation and 49,386 transcriptomic variables. GIDS reduced the feature space to approximately 9,000 CpGs and 2,000 transcripts, uncovering blockwise interaction structures: clusters of CpG sites and gene transcripts with strong associations. These findings not only improve computational tractability but also yield interpretable biological insights, highlighting coordinated regulatory mechanisms underlying Alzheimer's disease.

Tabular applications often require inspectable prediction rules and stable behavior when records are incomplete. We propose FlagGAM, a rule-basis framework that separates feature-level rule construction from prediction. A Flag Core Module converts numerical and categorical variables into sparse, human-readable univariate bases: threshold flags, category-level flags, tail-deviation bases, and categorical step functions. A default additive head combines these bases as a restricted GAM-style predictor, while the retained sparse rule-basis matrix supports mixed-type classification and regression, feature-specific weighting, and optional flexible heads. On clean benchmarks, additive FlagGAM stays close to modern additive and rule-based baselines on classification and improves over global linear modeling on regression, while remaining less flexible than tree-based predictors. Its clearest advantage appears under deployment-time perturbations: across three classification datasets, FlagGAM has the smallest mean AUROC degradation under missingness and numerical noise. Flexible heads improve absolute accuracy and approach strong tree-based baselines, but should be interpreted as nonlinear predictors over learned rule bases. These results support FlagGAM as a constrained additive rule-basis model for applications that need readable rules and stable behavior with incomplete inputs.

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent the majority of firms in most economies and often face financial constraints and higher vulnerability to financial distress. Predicting SME default is therefore crucial for financial institutions, policymakers, and researchers. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have improved predictive performance in credit risk modeling. Yet, the limited interpretability of complex models raises concerns regarding transparency and regulatory compliance. This study investigates SME's default predictors and applies explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to them. Using a panel of 50,718 Italian SME over the period 2015-2024, we compare traditional econometric approaches with several ML classifiers. The empirical results show that ML models significantly outperform the traditional logistic regression benchmark in terms of Balanced Accuracy and PR-AUC. To address the interpretability challenge, we introduce DEXiRE-EVO, a novel evolutionary rule extraction framework that combines multi-objective optimization with the Contextual Importance and Utility (CIU) explainability method. The extracted rules reveal economically meaningful patterns associated with SME financial distress, highlighting the roles of weak internal liquidity generation, internal capital erosion, high leverage, and operational inefficiency. Additionally, contextual macroeconomic conditions and the persistence of financial instability contribute to identifying high-risk firms. In general, the results show that combining ML with evolutionary rule extraction can improve both predictive performance and interpretability in credit risk modeling, thus supporting more transparent, data-driven decision-making in financial environments.

This note provides an interesting observation on casting partial least square (PLS) as a linearized self-attention so that PLS may be studied within the neural network paradigm. On the other hand, the dimensionality reduction and selection of predictors in PLS may indicate that self-attention includes certain degree of dimensionality normalization toward improved learning.

In this paper, we show that high-performing embedding models organize their embedding spaces in a consistent way. We evaluate 25 contemporary embedding models on five MTEB tasks spanning four diverse task categories (retrieval, bitext mining, pair classification, and summarization) in both English and multilingual settings, and reveal that nearest-neighbor overlap and magnitude differences in independent component analysis (ICA) between paired text instances strongly correlate (even up to 0.97) with performance on the given task. Ultimately, we show that embedding tasks display varying degrees of linearity and reliance on retention of local information. Our results further the understanding of embeddings, their relation to model performance, and shed light on possible future training objectives and optimizing conditional embeddings.

Tabular foundation models (TFMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for in-context learning on structured data, enabling direct prediction on new tabular tasks without task-specific training. However, their effectiveness is constrained by context length limits, restricting application to medium-scale data and degrading performance when inference-time data exceed pretraining size distributions. Our work introduces VIP-COP, estimating the Value of Importance for Prediction of training examples and features for hard Context OPtimization for TFMs. Its explicit selection mechanism suppresses noise and isolates influential data, enabling the model to also benefit from data augmentation by prioritizing high-value augmented samples and features. VIP-COP is (i) fast, boosting performance often within minutes of optimization, based on an online KernelSHAP-based regression with iterative refinement, value-guided context sampling, and multi-fidelity pruning; (ii) budget-aware and any-time, improving with additional test-time compute unlike heuristics that produce fixed contexts; (iii) model-aware yet fully black-box, requiring no access to model internals, making it compatible with both proprietary and open-source TFMs; (iv) interpretable, identifying discrete ``Very Important Predictors'' (samples and features) that maximize signal-to-noise, which makes it (v) robust, isolating high-value data from noise. In contrast, soft-prompt optimization requires model gradients, produces abstract latent tokens, and lacks explicit signal discrimination. Extensive experiments show that VIP-COP consistently outperforms heuristic and optimized baselines across large-scale high-dimensional testbeds, including data augmentation and data-noise settings, establishing a new state of the art in test-time context refinement for TFMs.

In many real-world computer vision applications, including medical imaging and industrial inspection, binary classification tasks are characterized by a severe scarcity of positive samples. A widely adopted solution is to generate synthetic positive data using image-to-image transformations applied to negative samples. However, a fundamental challenge remains: how can we reliably assess whether such synthetic data will improve downstream model performance? In this work, we propose a geometry-driven metric that predicts the utility of synthetic data without requiring model training. Our approach operates in the embedding space of a pre-trained foundation model and represents the dataset through difference vectors between samples. We evaluate whether the weight vector of a linear classifier can be expressed within the subspace spanned by these variations by measuring the relative projection error. Intuitively, if the variations induced by synthetic data capture task-relevant directions, their span can approximate the classifier, resulting in low projection error. Conversely, poor synthetic data fails to span these directions, leading to higher error. Across multiple datasets and architectures, we show that this metric exhibits strong correlation with downstream classification performance of CNNs trained on mixtures of real negative and synthetic positive data. These findings suggest that the proposed metric serves as a practical and informative tool for evaluating synthetic data quality in data-scarce settings.

Unlike most static material properties widely studied in the machine learning literature, ionic transport properties are inherently dynamic, making their fast and accurate prediction from static atomic structures challenging. The current standard approach, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, suffers from prohibitively high computational cost. Recent autoregressive learning-based MD acceleration methods requiring sequential inference remain slow and prone to error accumulation; in contrast, existing non-autoregressive material property prediction models are less accurate because they fail to exploit dynamics. Moreover, existing methods typically benefit from datasets either with or without atomic trajectories, but not both. To overcome these limitations, we propose a non-autoregressive learning framework based on auxiliary modality learning, which treats atomic trajectories as an auxiliary modality during training but does not require them at inference. This enables the predictor to learn dynamics without sequential inference while benefiting from both types of datasets. As a result, our framework achieves over 200 times speedup compared to autoregressive models on the dataset with atomic trajectories while substantially reducing prediction error relative to non-autoregressive benchmarks across both types of datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/jykim-git/MD.

Venn-Abers predictors are probabilistic predictors that enjoy appealing properties of validity, but their major limitation is that they are applicable only to the case of binary classification, with a recent extension to bounded regression. We generalize them to the case of unbounded regression, which requires adding an element of conformal prediction. In our simulation and empirical studies we investigate the predictive efficiency of point regressors derived from Venn-Abers regressors and argue that they somewhat improve the predictive efficiency of standard regressors for larger training sets.

Artificial-intelligence systems are becoming ubiquitous in society, yet their predictions typically inherit biases with respect to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. Classical fairness notions, most notably Statistical Parity (SP), demand that predictions be independent of the protected attributes, but are overly restrictive when these attributes influence mediating variables that are considered business necessities. Recent causal formulations relax SP by distinguishing allowed from not-allowed causal paths and by complementing SP with Predictive Parity (PP), requiring the predictor to replicate the legitimate influence of business-necessities. Existing path-based definitions are mainly practical when applied to categorical attributes. This paper introduces a new framework for fairness in structural causal models that is tailored to continuous protected attributes. We formalize SP and PP through path-specific partial derivatives, establish conditions under which these criteria coincide with prior causal definitions, and characterize when a fair predictor, one that satisfies SP along not-allowed paths while achieving PP along allowed paths, exists. Building on this theory, we propose a fair tuning algorithm that either constructs such a predictor or, when not possible, allows for a trade-off between SP and PP. We present experiments on simulated and real data to evaluate our proposal, compare it with previously proposed methods, and show that it performs better when PP is considered.

Models that are indistinguishable on in-distribution data can behave very differently under distribution shift. We introduce Perturb-and-Correct (P&C), a post-hoc method for constructing epistemically diverse predictors from a single pretrained network. P&C applies random hidden layer perturbations with a least-squares correction in the subsequent affine layer, producing predictors that agree on calibration data while remaining free to disagree away from it. We analyze this mechanism through the post-correction residual and its first-order sensitivity: the residual is controlled near the calibration distribution by a leverage term, while corrected sensitivity grows as inputs deviate from the calibration geometry. Empirically, P&C achieves a strong ID/OOD tradeoff across MuJoCo dynamics prediction and CIFAR-10 OOD detection, matching or outperforming standard post-hoc baselines while requiring only a single pretrained model. Our findings highlight the potential in further exploiting overparameterization as a strength of deep learning models.

Hallucination is a central failure mode of language models (LMs). We focus on hallucinations in response to questions like: "Which instrument did Glenn Gould play?", but we ask these questions for synthetic entities designed to be unknown to the model. We find that LMs like Gemma-7B-IT frequently hallucinate, i.e., they have difficulty recognizing that the hallucinated fact is not part of their knowledge. Based on the idea of linear relational embeddings, we put forward the following hypothesis. (i) Due to the abstract scheme that is used to represent them, LMs can easily produce plausible objects for non-existing subjects of linear relations, which can lead to hallucinations. (ii) For nonlinear relations, this mechanism for producing an object is not available and so a hallucination is easier to avoid. To test this hypothesis, we create SynthHal, a synthetic unknown-entity benchmark for 15 relations. We find that across four instruction-tuned models, relational linearity is a strong predictor of models hallucinating an object for an unknown subject vs refusing to give an answer, with correlations $r \in [.58, .84]$. While this is not direct evidence for the hypothesized causal mechanism, it is suggestive and opens up a new line of inquiry into understanding LM hallucinations.

Recent tool-use frameworks powered by vision-language models (VLMs) improve image understanding by grounding model predictions with specialized tools. Broadly, these frameworks leverage VLMs and a pre-specified toolbox to decompose the prediction task into multiple tool calls (often deep learning models) which are composed to make a prediction. The dominant approach to composing tools is using text, via function calls embedded in VLM-generated code or natural language. However, these methods often perform poorly on medical image understanding, where salient information is encoded as spatially-localized features that are difficult to compose or fuse via text alone. To address this, we propose a tool-use framework for medical image understanding called the Tool Bottleneck Framework (TBF), which composes VLM-selected tools using a learned Tool Bottleneck Model (TBM). For a given image and task, TBF leverages an off-the-shelf medical VLM to select tools from a toolbox that each extract clinically-relevant features. Instead of text-based composition, these tools are composed by the TBM, which computes and fuses the tool outputs using a neural network before outputting the final prediction. We propose a simple and effective strategy for TBMs to make predictions with any arbitrary VLM tool selection. Overall, our framework not only improves tool-use in medical imaging contexts, but also yields more interpretable, clinically-grounded predictors. We evaluate TBF on tasks in histopathology and dermatology and find that these advantages enable our framework to perform on par with or better than deep learning-based classifiers, VLMs, and state-of-the-art tool-use frameworks, with particular gains in data-limited regimes. The project details and the code are available at https://christinaliu2020.github.io/tbm/.

Building trustworthy machine learning algorithms for biological applications requires adapting to data heterogeneity from different sources, batches, distributions, or studies. We propose the 'Cross-Cluster Weighted Forest' (CCWF), an ensembling approach that explicitly leverages heterogeneity in the feature distribution to produce more accurate and more generalizable predictors than the standard Random Forest in cases when data can be naturally clustered. CCWF generalizes the RF architecture to an outer unsupervised layer, supervised subtasks, and ensembling. Specifically it involves unsupervised clustering of the training data, fitting a Random Forest on each cluster, and combining the forests via stacked regression weights that reward cross-cluster generalizability. We provide a theoretical analysis of an analytically tractable forest model showing that cluster-based ensembling is asymptotically more accurate than training a single forest on the full data, with the gain driven by bias reduction. In simulations, we find that CCWF is robust across data-generating regimes and outcome models; furthermore, we explore the influence of data partitioning and ensemble weighting strategies on the benefits of our method. Finally, we apply our approach to cancer molecular profiling and gene expression datasets that are naturally divisible into clusters; in both simulations and real data examples, we illustrate that our approach outperforms classic Random Forest by margins of 30-40%, aligning with our theoretical results. Overall, we show that CCWF provides a statistically grounded prediction algorithm for data spanning multiple domains or sub-populations, a structure common in biological applications.