Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Wildfires are a major producer of fine particulate matter, impacting human health and the electrical grid. Accurately forecasting smoke impacts over long time scales incorporates fuel treatment strategies, natural fuel succession, and stochastic events like lightning strikes. However, predicting smoke for each fuel distribution with a forward simulation of a coupled fire-atmosphere model is computationally infeasible. Moreover, relatively simple fire models are tractable to run in many long-time scenarios but do not capture smoke transport. We use data-driven multilinear operators to predict a smoke concentration field from knowledge of the time since ignition for two quantities of interest: aerosol optical depth and smoke detection. Our method first computes the principal components of time-since-ignition and smoke concentration fields and then learns a map from powers of the input coefficients to the output coefficients. We apply our learned operator to smoke prediction in the Upper Rio Grande Watershed. After collecting training data, learning the approximation weights on a CPU takes less than 30 seconds, and each forward call takes less than 1 ms. On a proxy for aerosol optical depth, we obtain equal accuracy to Monte Carlo sampling with fewer than half as many coupled model calls. For smoke detection, we obtain an intersection-over-union (IoU) of 0.64 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.95 on holdout data. Our method is significantly more accurate than the most similar published smoke classifier, which obtains an IoU and AUC of 0.15 and 0.61, respectively, on a 2015 bushfire in Australia.

Grid-based neural networks such as convolutional autoencoders are widely used in dimension reduction-based surrogate models for computational fluid dynamics. In recent years, the use of coordinate-based approaches like conditional neural fields has emerged. Their independence of the spatial discretization is a beneficial feature for various applications in computational fluid dynamics. This paper discusses the spatio-temporal prediction of aircraft ditching loads using a conditional neural field approach. The model is evaluated using two datasets for the dynamic loads of the fuselage of a DLR-D150 aircraft, one of which relates to a single fixed spatial discretization and the other that includes data from different discretizations. When paired with a long short-term memory (LSTM) network in the latent space, the neural field-based model achieves a spatio-temporal prediction accuracy for the first data set that is close to that of grid-dependent convolutional autoencoder-based models, and with significantly less parameters. Results for the second data set demonstrate the ability of the neural field-based approach to reconstruct ditching loads accurately for heterogeneous spatial discretizations. This allows for flexible use of training datasets generated for different geometries and/or discretizations, as well as the use of the surrogate model to predict loads for different configurations.

Urban air quality forecasting is challenging because pollutant concentrations are nonlinear, nonstationary, spatiotemporally dependent, and often affected by anomalous observations caused by traffic congestion, industrial emissions, and seasonal meteorological variability. This study proposes a Graph Convolutional Support Vector Regression (GraphSVR) framework for robust spatiotemporal forecasting of urban air pollution. The model combines graph convolutional learning to capture inter-station spatial dependence with support vector regression to model nonlinear temporal dynamics while reducing sensitivity to outlier observations. The proposed framework is evaluated using air quality records from 37 monitoring stations in Delhi and 18 stations in Mumbai, representing inland and coastal metropolitan environments in India. Forecasting performance is assessed across multiple horizons and compared with established temporal and spatiotemporal benchmarks. The results show that GraphSVR consistently improves predictive accuracy and maintains stable performance across seasons and outlier-prone pollution episodes. Statistical test further confirms the reliability of the proposed approach across the datasets. Furthermore, the conformal prediction approach is integrated with GraphSVR to generate calibrated prediction intervals, enhancing its practical value for uncertainty-aware air quality monitoring and public health decision-making.

Spatiotemporal forecasting in physical systems, such as large-scale traffic networks, requires modeling a dual dynamic: continuous macroscopic rhythms and discrete, unpredictable microscopic shocks. While Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) excel at capturing smooth evolution, their inherent Lipschitz continuity constraints inevitably cause severe over-smoothing when confronting abrupt anomalies. Recent physics-informed methods attempt to bypass this by penalizing numerical integration errors to enforce manifold smoothness. However, we mathematically reveal that such rigid regularization inherently triggers gradient conflicts and ``attention collapse,'' stripping the model of its sensitivity to anomalies. To resolve this continuity-shock dilemma, we propose Local Truncation Error-Guided Neural ODEs (LTE-ODE). Rather than treating numerical error as a nuisance to be eliminated, we innovatively repurpose the Local Truncation Error (LTE) as an unsupervised forward inductive bias. By mapping the LTE into a dynamic spatial attention mask, our architecture gracefully preserves high-precision continuous ODE evolution in stable regions, while adaptively triggering a discrete compensation branch exclusively at shock points. Trained purely end-to-end without manifold penalties, LTE-ODE achieves state-of-the-art performance on multiple large-scale benchmarks, exhibiting exceptional robustness against highly non-linear fluctuations. Furthermore, our ablation on integration steps demonstrates high deployment flexibility, allowing the model to seamlessly adapt to varying hardware memory constraints in real-world applications.

Reliable wildfire spread prediction is vital for risk-aware emergency planning, yet most deep learning models lack principled uncertainty quantification (UQ). Further, for boundary-sensitive cases like wildfire spread, evaluating models with global metrics alone is often insufficient. To shift the focus of UQ evaluation toward a more operationally relevant approach, the Fire-Centered Evaluation Region (FCER) framework is introduced as a spatially conditioned protocol to characterize UQ within critical fire zones. Using FCER, an Ensemble is compared against an distilled single-pass student model on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The student model demonstrates comparable calibration and complementary uncertainty ranking in boundary-relevant regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/jonasvilhofunk/WildfireUQ-FCER

Recently, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) or Transformer architecture based models have been proposed to overcome the limitations of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based models in spatiotemporal prediction. These models prevent the inefficiency of parallelization limitation due to the sequential properties and stacked error due to the recursive method, and show high performance. Novertheless, there are still some challengies. First, CNN based models have difficulty considering global information due to the local properties of the kernel, and their performance is limited. In addition, information is mixed because the time axis is combined with the channel axis of the image for processing. Models based on Transformer architecture have high complexity due to the self-attention calcuation and take a long training time. In this paper, we propose a new structure model called CNN-based Multi-In-Multi-Out model for Efficient Spatiotemporal Prediction (MIMO-ESP) to overcome these limitations. MIMO-ESP considers global information and significantly improves complexity by configuring a Transformer architecture based on CNN. In addition, it treats the time axis as an independent axis without combining it, and effectively considers spatiotemporal information together by applying dilation. This structure makes MIMO-ESP efficient and high performance. Extensive experiment results on three promising benchmark datasets which including video, traffic, and precipitation prediction tasks demonstrate that the usefulness of MIMO-ESP due to the achieved competitive efficiency while outperforming existing models. Furthermore, the ablation study results demonstrate the usefulness of the components of MIMO-ESP, emphasizing the potential of the proposed approaches.

Events in spatiotemporal systems are ubiquitous, yet modeling their complex distributions remains challenging. Existing point process models often rely on strong structural assumptions and are typically limited to autoregressive, event-by-event prediction. As a result, they struggle to support broader inference tasks such as inverse inference, trajectory reconstruction, and recovery of missing event locations. We introduce Arbitrarily Conditioned Hierarchical Flows (ARCH), a hierarchical flow matching framework for spatiotemporal event modeling. ARCH is expressive enough to capture complex event distributions while enabling tractable and accurate computation of conditional intensities, which quantify instantaneous event risk. Built on a history-encoder-generative-decoder architecture, ARCH introduces a hybrid masking strategy for flexible conditioning on arbitrary observed events. This enables a unified treatment of forecasting, inverse inference, and partial trajectory recovery within a single framework. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that ARCH consistently outperforms existing baselines across both prediction and conditional inference tasks.

Federated weather modeling on sensor data is a distributed system underpinned by federated learning, enabling multiple sensor data sources, including ground weather stations, satellites and IoT devices, to collaboratively train deep learning models without sharing raw data. This method safeguards data privacy and security while leverages diverse, geographically distributed datasets to improve the accuracy and robustness of global/regional weather modeling tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection.

We have seen tremendous recent progress in our ability to build "spatio-semantic" representations that enable robots to perform complex reasoning across geometry and semantics. However, the vast majority of these methods lack any ability to perform reasoning across time. This is a desirable property in situations where a robot repeatedly observes an environment where instances may change in between observations, but in a structured way. Consider as an example a home environment where the location of a mug typically moves from the cupboard to a countertop to the sink and then back to the cupboard on a daily basis. We should be able to learn this cyclic behavior and use it to predict the state of the mug in the future. In this work, we propose a method that is able to perform this type of tempo-spatio-semantic reasoning. Underpinning the method is a filter, Perpetua$^*$, that performs Bayesian reasoning on the states of the environment that are observed over time. This filter is integrated within a 3D scene graph structure that we call PredictiveGraphs, where nodes represent objects and edges function as Perpetua$^*$ filters encoding spatio-semantic relationships. We validate the method in both simulation and real-world dynamic navigation tasks, where our real world experiments consist of an environment that is undergoing semi-static changes at a bi-hourly frequency over a period of three weeks. In both settings, we demonstrate that our method outperforms baselines in predicting future environment states, even in the presence of distributional shifts.

Accurate forecasting of bus ridership (passengers numbers) is crucial for efficient management and optimization of public transport systems. Traditional forecasting models often fail to capture the unique and localized dynamics of different urban areas by treating the entire city as a single, homogeneous region. This paper introduces a novel framework that enhances bus ridership prediction by integrating a spatial clustering methodology with multi-dimensional feature analysis. The proposed framework utilizes a diverse set of data, including bus ridership data (by route number, time, and bus stop) complemented by a variety of open source data, such as spatial features (e.g., attractive destinations), meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature, rainfall), and temporal patterns (e.g., time of day, day of week). By clustering the urban area into distinct regions, based on the principle that bus stops in close proximity share similar ridership characteristics, a separate local forecasting model is trained for each of these clusters. This localized approach demonstrates an accuracy comparable to that of global models. The findings suggest that a spatially-aware, localized modeling strategy is effective for public transport prediction, paving the way for more targeted and efficient service improvements.

Terrestrial network limitations drive the integration of non-terrestrial networks (NTNs), notably mega-constellations comprising thousands of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. While these satellites act as interconnected network switches via inter-satellite links (ISLs), their massive scale creates severe bottlenecks for network management. To address this, we propose a scalable, hierarchical software-defined networking (SDN) framework. Our architecture leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) to compactly represent the constellation topology, and Koopman theory to linearize nonlinear dynamics. Specifically, a Graph Koopman Autoencoder (GKAE) forecasts spatio-temporal behavior within a linear subspace for each orbital shell. A central SDN controller then aggregates these shell-level predictions for globally coordinated control. Simulations on the Starlink constellation demonstrate that our approach achieves at least a 42.8% improvement in spatial compression and a 10.81% improvement in temporal forecasting compared to established baselines, all while utilizing a significantly smaller model footprint.

Operational weather prediction has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP), whose accuracy comes at the cost of substantial compute and complex simulation workflows. Recent transformer-based forecasters offer efficient data-driven alternatives, however transformers are physics-agnostic models. Additionally, standard transformer encoders evolve representations through discrete layer updates that may be less suited to modeling smooth latent dynamics. In this work, we propose a continuous-depth transformer encoder for weather forecasting that integrates Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) dynamics within each encoder block. Specifically, we replace discrete residual updates with ODE-based updates solved using adaptive numerical integration. We also introduce a two-branch attention module that combines conventional patch-wise self-attention with an auxiliary branch that applies a derivative operator to attention logits, providing an additional change-sensitive interaction signal. To further align forecasts with governing principles, we propose a customized physics-informed training objective that enforces physical consistency as a soft constraint. We evaluate the proposed method against a standard discrete transformer baseline and an existing continuous-time Neural ODE forecasting variant, demonstrating the importance of PINN-Cast in short term weather forecasting.

Pakistan experienced an unusually severe flood season between June and December 2025, with cascading impacts on population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Existing operational flood products (e.g., UNOSAT) provide valuable episode-level snapshots but rarely deliver spatially and temporally continuous inundation maps at near-real-time latency within the country. We present a multi-sensor, ensemble-based remote-sensing framework for continuous flood nowcasting in Pakistan that integrates Sentinel-1 SAR, Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel (HLS L30 and S30), MODIS, and VIIRS observations on a harmonized grid in Google Earth Engine. The framework employs a tiered nowcasting ensemble that prioritizes higher-resolution sensors (Sentinel-1 and HLS) and falls back to MODIS and VIIRS when necessary, preserving daily continuity of flood extent at each sensor's native resolution. Applied to the 2025 monsoon period, the system generates near-real-time, spatially consistent inundation maps across Pakistan. As a nowcasting case study, we track the super-flood of 26 August-7 September 2025 day by day, demonstrating the framework's ability to capture the evolving flood footprint in near real time and extend beyond the temporal limits of episodic mapping products. Validation against GloFAS discharge anomalies and precipitation datasets (CHIRPS v3.0, MSWEP) shows strong agreement with observed hydrometeorological conditions. By integrating nowcast outputs with exposure layers (WorldPop, ESA WorldCover, Giga-HOTOSM), the framework enables rapid estimation of affected populations, cropland, and critical infrastructure, supporting timely disaster response and resilience planning in South Asia.

Accurate end-to-end tail-latency forecasting is critical for proactive SLO management in microservice systems. However, modeling long-range dependency propagation and non-stationary, bursty workloads while maintaining inference efficiency at scale remains challenging. We present STLGT (Scalable Trace-based Linear Graph Transformer), a per-API predictor that encodes traces as span graphs for multi-step p95 tail-latency forecasting. STLGT uses a structure-aware linear graph Transformer to propagate cross-service dependencies with inference time linear in span graph size, and a decoupled temporal module to capture workload dynamics. Across a personalized education microservice application, DeathStarBench, and Alibaba traces, STLGT improves forecasting accuracy over PERT-GNN by 8.5% MAPE on average and achieves up to 12x faster CPU inference at N=32, matching the maximum span graph size after preprocessing the Alibaba traces. Ablation studies further demonstrate the effectiveness of each component, especially under bursty traffic.

Forecasting infectious disease incidence can provide important information to guide public health planning, yet is difficult because epidemic dynamics are complex. Current mechanistic and statistical approaches often struggle to capture multimodal uncertainty or emergent trends. Influpaint adapts denoising diffusion probabilistic models to epidemic forecasting. By encoding influenza seasons as spatiotemporal images in which pixel intensity represents incidence, Influpaint learns a rich distribution of disease dynamics from a hybrid dataset of surveillance and simulated trajectories. Forecasting is formulated as a conditional generation (inpainting) task from partial observations. We show that Influpaint generates realistic, diverse epidemic trajectories and achieves forecast accuracy that is competitive with leading ensemble methods in retrospective evaluation. In real-time evaluation during the 2023--2025 U.S. CDC FluSight challenges, performance improved substantially across seasons, with highly accurate but somewhat overconfident projections in 2024--2025. The best performance was achieved with a training dataset containing 30% surveillance and 70% simulated trajectories. These results show that diffusion models can capture important spatiotemporal structure in influenza dynamics and provide a flexible framework for probabilistic infectious disease forecasting.

Accurate forecasting of solar power output is essential for efficient integration of renewable energy into the grid. In this study, an attention-based deep learning model, inspired by transformer architecture, is used for short-term solar power forecasting. Our proposed model, "SolarTformer", is designed to predict solar power output from meteorological data. Unlike traditional models, SolarTformer leverages self-attention mechanisms to effectively capture temporal dependencies and spatial variability in solar irradiance. In addition, the proposed methodology includes feeding power station-specific metadata into the model, which helps to generalize between power stations located at different locations and with different panel configurations and in different seasons. Our experiments demonstrate that SolarTformer significantly outperforms previous models on the same data set. In particular, the model exhibits strong performance on both clear and cloudy days, indicating high robustness and generalizability. These findings highlight the potential of attention-based architectures in enhancing the accuracy of solar forecasting, contributing to a more reliable management of renewable energy.

Storm surge forecasting remains a critical challenge in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on coastal regions, particularly given recent trends of rapid intensification and increasing nearshore storm activity. Traditional high fidelity numerical models such as ADCIRC, while robust, are often hindered by inevitable uncertainties arising from various sources. To address these challenges, this study introduces StormNet, a spatio-temporal graph neural network (GNN) designed for bias correction of storm surge forecasts. StormNet integrates graph convolutional (GCN) and graph attention (GAT) mechanisms with long short-term memory (LSTM) components to capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies among water-level gauge stations. The model was trained using historical hurricane data from the U.S. Gulf Coast and evaluated on Hurricane Idalia (2023). Results demonstrate that StormNet can effectively reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) in water-level predictions by more than 70% for 48-hour forecasts and above 50% for 72-hour forecasts, as well as outperform a sequential LSTM baseline, particularly for longer prediction horizons. The model also exhibits low training time, enhancing its applicability in real-time operational forecasting systems. Overall, StormNet provides a computationally efficient and physically meaningful framework for improving storm surge prediction accuracy and reliability during extreme weather events.

Timely and interpretable early warning of sepsis remains a major clinical challenge due to the complex temporal dynamics of physiological deterioration. Traditional data-driven models often provide accurate yet opaque predictions, limiting physicians' confidence and clinical applicability. To address this limitation, we propose a Large Language Model (LLM)-guided temporal simulation framework that explicitly models physiological trajectories prior to disease onset for clinically interpretable prediction. The framework consists of a spatiotemporal feature extraction module that captures dynamic dependencies among multivariate vital signs, a Medical Prompt-as-Prefix module that embeds clinical reasoning cues into LLMs, and an agent-based post-processing component that constrains predictions within physiologically plausible ranges. By first simulating the evolution of key physiological indicators and then classifying sepsis onset, our model offers transparent prediction mechanisms that align with clinical judgment. Evaluated on the MIMIC-IV and eICU databases, the proposed method achieves superior AUC scores (0.861-0.903) across 24-4-hour pre-onset prediction tasks, outperforming conventional deep learning and rule-based approaches. More importantly, it provides interpretable trajectories and risk trends that can assist clinicians in early intervention and personalized decision-making in intensive care environments.

Accurate forecasting of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is critical for grid management and infrastructure planning. Yet the field continues to rely on legacy benchmarks; such as the Palo Alto (2020) dataset; that fail to reflect the scale and behavioral diversity of modern charging networks. To address this, we introduce a novel large-scale longitudinal dataset collected across Scotland (2022 2025), which release it as an open benchmark for the community. Building on this dataset, we formulate EV charging demand as a spatio-temporal latent Gaussian field and perform approximate Bayesian inference via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). The resulting model jointly captures spatial dependence, temporal dynamics, and covariate effects within a unified proba bilistic framework. On station-level forecasting tasks, our approach achieves competitive predictive accuracy against machine learning baselines, while additionally providing principled uncertainty quan tification and interpretable spatial and temporal decompositions properties that are essential for risk-aware infrastructure planning.

Crop yield prediction is one of the most important challenge, which is crucial to world food security and policy-making decisions. The conventional forecasting techniques are limited in their accuracy with reference to the fact that they utilize static data sources that do not reflect the dynamic and intricate relationships that exist between the variables of the environment over time [5,13]. This paper presents Attention-Based Multi-Modal Deep Learning Framework (ABMMDLF), which is suggested to be used in high-accuracy spatio-temporal crop yield prediction. The model we use combines multi-year satellite imagery, high-resolution time-series of meteorological data and initial soil properties as opposed to the traditional models which use only one of the aforementioned factors [12, 21]. The main architecture involves the use of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to extract spatial features and a Temporal Attention Mechanism to adaptively weight important phenological periods targeted by the algorithm to change over time and condition on spatial features of images and video sequences. As can be experimentally seen, the proposed research work provides an R^2 score of 0.89, which is far better than the baseline models do.

Air pollution is a worldwide public health threat that can cause or exacerbate many illnesses, including respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers. However, epidemiological studies and public health decision-making are stymied by the inability to assess pollution exposure impacts in near real time. To address this, developing accurate digital twins of environmental pollutants will enable timely data-driven analytics - a crucial step in modernizing health policy and decision-making. Although other models predict and analyze fine particulate matter exposure, they often rely on modeled input data sources and data streams that are not regularly updated. Another challenge stems from current models relying on predefined grids. In contrast, our deep-learning approach interpolates surface level PM2.5 concentrations between sparsely distributed US EPA monitoring stations in a grid-free manner. By incorporating additional, readily available datasets - including topographic, meteorological, and land-use data - we improve its ability to predict pollutant concentrations with high spatial and temporal resolution. This enables model querying at any spatial location for rapid predictions without computing over the entire grid. To ensure robustness, we randomize spatial sampling during training to enable our model to perform well in both dense and sparse monitored regions. This model is well suited for near real-time deployment because its lightweight architecture allows for fast updates in response to streaming data. Moreover, model flexibility and scalability allow it to be adapted to various geographical contexts and scales, making it a practical tool for delivering accurate and timely air quality assessments. Its capacity to rapidly evaluate multiple scenarios can be especially valuable for decision-making during public health crises.

Deep learning surrogates for CFD flow-field prediction often rely on large, complex models, which can be slow and fragile when data are noisy or incomplete. We introduce FlowForge, a staged local rollout engine that predicts future flow fields by compiling a locality-preserving update schedule and executing it with a shared lightweight local predictor. Rather than producing the next frame in a single global pass, FlowForge rewrites spatial sites stage by stage so that each update conditions only on bounded local context exposed by earlier stages. This compile-execute design aligns inference with short-range physical dependence, keeps latency predictable, and limits error amplification from global mixing. Across PDEBench, CFDBench, and BubbleML, FlowForge matches or improves upon strong baselines in pointwise accuracy, delivers consistently better robustness to noise and missing observations, and maintains stable multi-step rollout behavior while reducing per-step latency.

Machine learning emulators have shown extraordinary skill in forecasting atmospheric states, and their application to global ocean dynamics offers similar promise. Here, we adapt the GraphCast architecture into a dedicated ocean-only emulator, driven by prescribed atmospheric conditions, for medium-range predictions. The emulator is trained on NOAA's UFS-Replay dataset. Using a 24 hour time step, single initial condition, and without using autoregressive training, we produce an emulator that provides skillful forecasts for 10-15 day lead times. We further demonstrate the use of Mahalanobis distance as loss that improves the forecast skill compared to the Mean Squared Error loss by explicitly accounting for the correlations between tendencies of the target variables. Using spatial correlation analysis of the forecasted fields, we also show that the proposed correlation-aware loss acts as a statistical-dynamical regularizer for the slow, correlated dynamics of the global oceans, offering a better background forecast for downstream tasks like data assimilation.

Epidemic forecasting has become an integral part of real-time infectious disease outbreak response. While collaborative ensembles composed of statistical and machine learning models have become the norm for real-time forecasting, standardized benchmark datasets for evaluating such methods are lacking. Further, there is limited understanding on performance of these methods for novel outbreaks with limited historical data. In this paper, we propose IDOBE, a curated collection of epidemiological time series focused on outbreak forecasting. IDOBE compiles from multiple data repositories spanning over a century of surveillance and across U.S. states and global locations. We perform derivative-based segmentation to generate over 10,000 outbreaks covering multiple outcomes such as cases and hospitalizations for 13 diseases. We consider a variety of information-theoretic and distributional measures to quantify the epidemiological diversity of the dataset. Finally, we perform multi-horizon short-term forecasting (1- to 4-week-ahead) through the progression of the outbreak using 11 baseline models and report on their performance. In addition to standard metrics such as NMSE and MAPE for point forecasts, we include probabilistic scoring rules such as Normalized Weighted Interval Score (NWIS) to quantify the performance. We find that MLP-based methods have the most robust performance, with statistical methods having a slight edge during the pre-peak phase. IDOBE dataset along with baselines are released publicly on https://github.com/NSSAC/IDOBE to enable standardized, reproducible benchmarking of outbreak forecasting methods.

Most data-driven ionospheric models operate on gridded products, which do not preserve the time-varying sampling structure of satellite-based sensing. We instead model the ionosphere as a dynamic graph over ionospheric pierce points, with connectivity that evolves as satellite positions change. Because satellite trajectories are predictable, the graph topology over the forecast horizon can be constructed in advance. We exploit this property to condition forecasts on the future graph structure, which we term ephemeris conditioning. This enables prediction on lines of sight (LoS) that appear only in the forecast horizon. We evaluate our framework on Global Navigation Satellite System data from a co-located receiver pair in Singapore spanning 2023 to 2025. The task is forecasting irregularities defined by the Rate of TEC Index (ROTI) up to 2 hours ahead as per-node binary classification. The resulting model, IonoDGNN, achieves a Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.55 and an area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC) of 0.77. These correspond to improvements over persistence of 53% in BSS and 58% in PR-AUC, with larger gains at longer lead times. Ablations confirm that graph structure and ephemeris conditioning each contribute meaningfully. Under simulated coverage dropout, the model retains predictive skill on affected nodes through spatial message passing from observed neighbors. Compared to interpolation baselines, the proposed model achieves better recovery, especially at higher dropout levels. These results suggest that dynamic graph forecasting on evolving LoS is a viable alternative for ionospheric modeling. The project and the dataset are available at https://github.com/Mert-chan/IonoDGNN.

Foundation models (FMs) for the Earth system learn statistical relationships between physical variables across massive datasets to enable versatile downstream applications through finetuning, separating them from task-specific weather models. Here, we introduce Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM), a fully open model building on the 3D Swin UNet backbone of the pioneering Aurora model. ESFM introduces extensions that increase functionality and foster adoption in climate sciences. First, the encoding scheme and training protocols have been extended to handle diverse datasets, including those containing missing values across all spatio-temporal dimensions such as satellite data, as well as station data, all under one backbone. Axial attention is introduced to capture inter-variable dependencies. As a result ESFM skillfully predicts variables in regions or on pressure levels where no data is present at the initial time, while preserving inter-variable relationships, for example between temperature, pressure, and humidity. Individual variable tokenization enables different sets of variables to be shuffled during training and simplifies the process of building extensions for new downstream tasks. Adaptive layer norm-based ensembles allow for a simple yet effective way to transform deterministic ESFM to a probabilistic FM. We present findings using dense gridded data (ERA5, CMIP6), regionally masked dense data, sparse gridded MODIS satellite data, and station data. Results demonstrate competitive or superior performance relative to state-of-the-art benchmarks. Case studies of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2023) and 2024 sudden stratospheric warming events show accurate positional and magnitude estimations of extreme weather. ESFM retains the strengths of previous foundation models, such as long-term stability, but facilitates application to a variety of downstream tasks.

Predictive policing systems that allocate patrol resources based solely on predicted crime risk can unintentionally amplify racial disparities through feedback driven data bias. We present FASE, a Fairness Aware Spatiotemporal Event Graph framework, which integrates spatiotemporal crime prediction with fairness constrained patrol allocation and a closed loop deployment feedback simulator. We model Baltimore as a graph of 25 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas and use 139,982 Part 1 crime incidents from 2017 to 2019 at hourly resolution, producing a sparse feature tensor. The prediction module combines a spatiotemporal graph neural network with a multivariate Hawkes process to capture spatial dependencies and self exciting temporal dynamics. Outputs are modeled using a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial distribution, suitable for overdispersed and zero heavy crime counts. The model achieves a validation loss of 0.4800 and a test loss of 0.4857. Patrol allocation is formulated as a fairness constrained linear optimization problem that maximizes risk weighted coverage while enforcing a Demographic Impact Ratio constraint with deviation bounded by 0.05. Across six simulated deployment cycles, fairness remains within 0.9928 to 1.0262, and coverage ranges from 0.876 to 0.936. However, a persistent detection rate gap of approximately 3.5 percentage points remains between minority and non minority areas. This result shows that allocation level fairness constraints alone do not eliminate feedback induced bias in retraining data, highlighting the need for fairness interventions across the full pipeline.

Machine learning is becoming increasingly important for nonlinear system identification, including dynamical systems with spatially distributed outputs. However, classical identification and forecasting approaches become markedly less reliable in turbulent-flow regimes, where the dynamics are high-dimensional, strongly nonlinear, and highly sensitive to compounding rollout errors. Diffusion-based models have recently shown improved robustness in this setting and offer probabilistic inference capabilities, but many current implementations inherit target parameterizations from image generation, most commonly noise or velocity prediction. In this work, we revisit this design choice in the context of nonlinear spatiotemporal system identification. We consider a simple, self-contained patch-based transformer that operates directly on physical fields and use turbulent flow simulation as a representative testbed. Our results show that clean-state prediction consistently improves rollout stability and reduces long-horizon error relative to velocity- and noise-based objectives, with the advantage becoming more pronounced as the per-token dimensionality increases. These findings identify target parameterization as a key modeling choice in diffusion-based identification of nonlinear systems with spatial outputs in turbulent regimes.

Time-to-Collision (TTC) forecasting is a critical task in collision prevention, requiring precise temporal prediction and comprehending both local and global patterns encapsulated in a video, both spatially and temporally. To address the multi-scale nature of video, we introduce a novel spatiotemporal hierarchical transformer-based architecture called CollideNet, specifically catered for effective TTC forecasting. In the spatial stream, CollideNet aggregates information for each video frame simultaneously at multiple resolutions. In the temporal stream, along with multi-scale feature encoding, CollideNet also disentangles the non-stationarity, trend, and seasonality components. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in comparison to prior works on three commonly used public datasets, setting a new state-of-the-art by a considerable margin. We conduct cross-dataset evaluations to analyze the generalization capabilities of our method, and visualize the effects of disentanglement of the trend and seasonality components of the video data. We release our code at https://github.com/DeSinister/CollideNet/.

Distribution shift severely degrades the performance of deep forecasting models. While this issue is well-studied for individual time series, it remains a significant challenge in the spatio-temporal domain. Effective solutions like instance normalization and its variants can mitigate temporal shifts by standardizing statistics. However, distribution shift on a graph is far more complex, involving not only the drift of individual node series but also heterogeneity across the spatial network where different nodes exhibit distinct statistical properties. To tackle this problem, we propose Reversible Residual Normalization (RRN), a novel framework that performs spatially-aware invertible transformations to address distribution shift in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Our approach integrates graph convolutional operations within invertible residual blocks, enabling adaptive normalization that respects the underlying graph structure while maintaining reversibility. By combining Center Normalization with spectral-constrained graph neural networks, our method captures and normalizes complex Spatio-Temporal relationships in a data-driven manner. The bidirectional nature of our framework allows models to learn in a normalized latent space and recover original distributional properties through inverse transformation, offering a robust and model-agnostic solution for forecasting on dynamic spatio-temporal systems.