Surrogates

We study the local errors of classical machine-learning surrogate models, which approximate the time evolution of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation. Four models are compared on the same prediction task, using the spatial grid values directly: radial basis function (RBF) kernel ridge regression (KRR), linear Ridge, ExtraTrees, and Random Forests. Across all four models, the one-step residual, defined here as the true value minus the predicted value at each grid point, forms clear curved branches near predicted maxima and minima. A more detailed analysis of KRR shows that these errors are much more strongly related to the second spatial derivative, which measures local curvature, than to the first spatial derivative. Near a smooth extremum, predicted value and curvature form a local two-branch fold. Under our local curvature-based model of the residual, this fold predicts a leading-order near-parabolic relation between predicted value and residual. This geometric result motivates a direct test of the Burgers advection (transport) and diffusion (smoothing) terms. For KRR and Ridge, regression tests on held-out trajectories, a control that breaks the spatial alignment of the diffusion term, and a spectral test of high-frequency content are consistent with insufficient viscous smoothing at moderate and high viscosity. In this case, the surrogate retains more small-scale structure than the true future state. The same physical explanation is much weaker for the tree models. Finally, a correction that uses only predicted quantities reduces both one-step error and error during recursive rollout, where each prediction is used as the next input.

Closed-loop AI scientists can generate candidate designs at low marginal computational cost, whereas reliable feedback may require wet-lab synthesis, characterization, or high-fidelity computation. Addressing this imbalance through custom laboratory automation remains infrastructure-intensive and costly, while replacing new experiments with a fixed surrogate leaves persistent model errors that can be amplified by optimization. We propose \emph{online surrogate repair} (OSR), a closed-loop algorithm that uses sparse high-fidelity evaluations to update the surrogate throughout a longer agent search conducted primarily with inexpensive surrogate feedback. An acquisition rule selects which designs from the agent's accumulated proposals receive high-fidelity evaluation, and the resulting labels update the surrogate used in subsequent episodes. Across controlled synthetic environments, we demonstrate that improving global surrogate fit does not necessarily reduce maximum regret, whereas Q90-UCB and expected improvement (EI) substantially reduce regret by directing evaluations toward regions that determine the optimizer's decisions. On MADE, controls receiving high-fidelity feedback after every episode require $6.36$--$7.23\times$ more oracle queries to match Online EI under two LLM orchestrators and $10.27\times$ more under the non-LLM Chemeleon+MLIP workflow. Online surrogate repair introduces a novel third feedback regime between fixed-surrogate operation and high-fidelity feedback after every episode, separating the frequency of high-fidelity evaluation from the duration of the agent's search.

Embedding trained neural networks as surrogates within optimisation problems is an established practice in operations research. The prevailing approach uses feedforward neural networks (FNNs) with ReLU activations, whose piecewise-linear structure admits an exact but computationally intensive mixed-integer programming (MIP) reformulation as the networks grow. We advocate input convex neural networks (ICNNs) as structurally superior surrogates when the underlying response is approximately convex or concave. The convex architecture offers two computational advantages. First, the ICNN-MIP formulation tends to yield a tighter linear programming (LP) relaxation than its FNN-MIP counterpart, with no integrality gap in favourable instances. Second, ICNNs uniquely admit an LP-based reformulation via epigraph representations of ReLU activations, though this embedding is not always exact. When it is not, we exploit the properties of ICNNs to construct the strongest continuous relaxation over box domains, namely, the convex hull of the ICNN's graph, bounded below by the epigraph and above by the concave envelope; this construction is tractable under input convexity but hard for general ReLU networks. On this basis, we develop a branch-and-bound algorithm that builds this relaxation at each node, branches directly on input variables rather than intermediate variables as in MIP reformulations, and terminates at the root node whenever the epigraph embedding is valid. Case studies on humanitarian food aid, oil well routing, and wine blending show that ICNN surrogates match FNN accuracy and deliver gains in solve time and scalability, supporting ICNN as the default surrogate when the underlying function is convex, concave, or well-approximated as such.

Preferential Bayesian optimization (PBO) optimizes objectives accessible only through pairwise user comparisons. The standard approach fits a Gaussian process surrogate for observed pairwise comparisons (PairwiseGP) using the Laplace approximation and selects queries with the Expected Utility of Best Option (EUBO) acquisition function. EUBO queries new candidates at each step, producing pairs that share no candidates with previous queries. Each such pair forms an isolated component in the comparison graph, removing one degree of freedom from the likelihood Hessian and making it rank-deficient. This deficiency is structural and cannot be resolved by changing the surrogate modeling approach. Existing approaches to remedy this issue either waste query budget by forcing comparisons to stay connected, or apply uniform regularization that also perturbs directions already well-constrained by the observed comparisons. We propose KappaSharp that enables a diagonal correction to the Hessian to reduce its condition number, with larger corrections where the prior uncertainty is higher. The correction is only applied in the model fitting step, not query selection. An adaptive variant of KappaSharp is also presented that activates the correction only when the surrogate is confident about recent comparisons, avoiding unnecessary corrections when the problem is well-conditioned. On 11 benchmarks (5--20 dimensions), including a 16-dimensional controller tuning problem in plasma medicine, Adaptive KappaSharp outperforms the standard PBO baseline, with up to +10.9% ($p{=}0.003$).

Structure-preserving de-identification replaces protected health information (PHI) with realistic same-type surrogates -- "Anna S." becomes "Maria S.", not [NAME] -- so that clinical text stays fluent and downstream tools keep working. But this only helps if the substitution does not itself corrupt the signal those tools rely on. We ask a narrow, testable question: on the spans a de-identifier actually masks, can downstream PHI detectors still find the surrogate? We introduce a paired, multi-detector evaluation protocol that (i) scores utility only on masked spans, decoupling coverage from utility; (ii) uses equivalence testing (TOST) rather than null-hypothesis significance testing, which is uninformative at our sample size (57k paired spans); and (iii) builds a surrogate-failure typology separating fixable generator defects from intrinsic detector limits. Across 11 detectors, 7 benchmarks, and 7 languages (1,750 documents), recall on masked spans moves from 76.1% to 74.9% -- a change our equivalence test shows is statistically equivalent to zero within a +/-2-point margin (p ~ 3e-9), with detector ranking preserved. The residual loss does not reflect detectors getting worse at PHI: it concentrates in malformed and out-of-distribution surrogates (truncation Chicago -> Illino, salience loss Cedars-Sinai -> Vidant). A redaction floor and an open-source surrogate baseline indicate the effect is a property of well-formed substitution, not of one tool. We release the evaluation subsets, scoring code, and an interactive dashboard at https://custodianai.pages.dev so the protocol can audit any structure-preserving transform.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is widely adopted for data-efficient optimization in scientific and engineering applications, yet its computational cost is rarely evaluated alongside optimization performance. Here we present a systematic, compute-aware study of BO that evaluates surrogate models along two axes: optimization quality and computational frugality. Across eight benchmark functions and nine real-world datasets spanning materials science, mechanics, robotics, chemistry, and machine learning, we benchmark four surrogate models: Gaussian Processes, Random Forests, NGBoost, and Bayesian Adaptive Spline Surfaces. We show that Gaussian Process-based BO consistently incurs the highest time and memory overhead without delivering superior optimization or sample efficiency. In contrast, scalable alternatives achieve equal or better performance at a fraction of the computational cost. Motivated by these findings, we introduce a surrogate-recommendation framework that predicts the most suitable BO surrogate from inexpensive dataset characteristics. Together, these results establish FruBO as a reproducible, compute-aware baseline for Bayesian Optimization and provide practical guidance for surrogate selection under limited computational and experimental budgets.

Adversarial training is one of the most effective defenses against adversarial attacks, yet the computational cost remains prohibitive at modern scales, especially for large language models (LLMs). While existing mitigation strategies, e.g., latent adversarial training (LAT), have been developed, they still incur a high computational cost. In this work, we comprehensively investigate computation-efficient strategies to speed up LAT from two complementary perspectives: (1) Defense-side optimization: We explore the representation fine-tuning (ReFT) within LAT, and reveal a potential issue if there is a mismatch on which tokens to apply ReFT and the attack. (2) Attack-side optimization: When computing adversarial attacks in each LAT iteration, we extract only the relevant circuits from the LLM to construct a lightweight surrogate model, avoiding the computation in the forward-backward passes through the full model during the attack generation. For both perspectives, we provide theoretical justifications and numerical evidence to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategies. Ultimately, compared to standard LAT with full fine-tuning, our method on average reduces per-step adversarial-training FLOPs by 48.1% while requiring only 0.0118% trainable parameters.

Ensembles are a standard way to improve the performance and robustness of deep neural networks, but their effectiveness crucially depends on both the quality and the diversity of individual models. Most neural architecture search (NAS) methods are computationally expensive. Extending them to neural ensemble search (NES), which requires joint optimization of individual architectures and their ensemble composition, leads to an exponential growth of the search space and makes the problem computationally intractable. To address this, we introduce a dual-objective surrogate-guided ensemble search: candidate architectures are represented as directed acyclic graphs, and two surrogate models are trained independently to estimate predictive accuracy and diversity potential. Their combined estimates guide an NES framework that efficiently identifies architectures that are both individually strong and collectively diverse. Our final ensemble achieves competitive or superior performance compared to standard baselines such as Deep Ensembles and Random Search on FashionMNIST, CIFAR-10, and CIFAR-100.

We propose Dynamic Constraint Learning (DCL), a data-driven framework for constrained optimization when constraint functions are unknown and cannot be queried during optimization. At each iteration, the method learns a local surrogate from nearby data and solves a subproblem within a data-supported trust region. Compared with offline global constraint learning, the approach uses local surrogates that adapt to the data distribution during optimization and can achieve solution quality comparable to that of global models while using simpler local models and smaller optimization subproblems. We demonstrate the performance of DCL on a synthetic test problem and two case studies from the literature.

We present a neural network surrogate model that emulates the NRSur7dq4 gravitational waveform model for precessing binary black hole mergers. The surrogate decomposes the waveform into constituent quantities and trains an independent multilayer perceptron (MLP) for each. We validate the surrogate against NRSur7dq4 on 10,000 waveforms spanning its full parameter space ($1 \leq q \leq 4$, $|χ_{A,B}| \leq 0.8$). For representative total masses between 60 and 300 $M_\odot$, median sky-averaged frequency-domain mismatches range from $8.0 \times 10^{-5}$ to $1.7 \times 10^{-4}$, with 95th percentiles below $10^{-3}$. On an NVIDIA L40S GPU the JAX surrogate evaluates a single waveform in about 1 ms end-to-end, roughly 10 times faster than the LALSimulation C implementation of NRSur7dq4, and sustains about 140 times the LALSimulation throughput at batch size 64, making it well suited for both low-latency parameter-estimation samplers and large-scale waveform generation. The full NRSur7dq4 NN waveform-to-likelihood pipeline is implemented in JAX and is differentiable. This is the first neural-network surrogate of a precessing numerical-relativity waveform model to combine validated NR-faithful accuracy with a fully differentiable, GPU-accelerated inference pipeline, enabling gradient-based inference approaches via automatic differentiation including Fisher information matrices, GPU-accelerated nested sampling, gradient-based MCMC and importance sampling.

The use of variable well perforation and injection strategies can improve the efficiency of geological carbon storage operations. We develop a new multimodal auto-regressive transformer surrogate to model these operations under geological uncertainty. A modified SEAM CO2 geomodel, which involves a faulted system with three stacked aquifers, is considered. The two injection wells are perforated in stages, from bottom to top, with the stage durations and individual well injection rates treated as control variables. The surrogate model processes three input modalities - the 3D geomodel, scalar parameters characterizing relative permeability functions, and control variables - through separate encoders. These are fused via self-attention in a transformer encoder, and a temporal decoder generates predictions auto-regressively through encoder-decoder cross-attention. The surrogate is trained, using 4000 GEOS flow simulations, to predict saturation and pressure at monitoring locations, total injected and mobile CO2 mass, and saturation footprints. For a new test set, involving randomly sampled geomodels and control variables, the surrogate achieves a median saturation MAE of 0.028 and median relative errors of 0.2-5% for the other quantities of interest. Importantly, it captures the switch from rate to bottom-hole-pressure control. The surrogate model is used within a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo data assimilation procedure for a synthetic true model under three operational strategies. Substantial uncertainty reduction is achieved for key metaparameters, particularly the fault permeabilities. Posterior predictions for saturation footprints and total injected and mobile CO2 mass are also shown to be generally consistent with true model results.

Gene regulatory network modeling often requires balancing predictive accuracy and mechanistic interpretability. In this work, we compare continuous surrogate models and a discrete mechanistic model on the same \textit{Arabidopsis thaliana} induced systemic resistance (ISR) dataset, using both the raw continuous gene-expression measurements and their sign-binarized representation. The study considers eight defense-related genes measured over nine time points and evaluates two continuous predictors, Random Forest (RF) regression and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), against a threshold Boolean network (TBN). The models are assessed using rolling-origin one-step prediction, recursive multi-step rollout, and interpretability analysis. RF achieved the best average one-step numerical performance in the continuous domain, with an MAE of 1.910 and an RMSE of 2.836, compared with 2.089 and 3.106 for the MLP. In the binary domain, the TBN obtained the best average one-step qualitative performance, with a binary accuracy of 0.550 and a Hamming distance of 3.600, compared with 0.500 and 4.000 for RF, and 0.495 and 4.040 for the MLP. In recursive rollout, the TBN exactly reproduced the observed binarized trajectory, while the MLP also showed near-perfect fidelity, with a trajectory binary accuracy of 0.986, and RF accumulated substantially larger deviation, with a trajectory binary accuracy of 0.708. These results highlight that local numerical accuracy and global qualitative dynamical fidelity are not necessarily aligned, and suggest that continuous surrogates and threshold Boolean networks should be viewed as complementary tools for modeling biological regulation.

Machine-learning surrogates of physical systems face a paradox: explainable models facing the challenge of expressivity to capture complex nonlinear flows, whereas expressive deep surrogates match high-fidelity simulations only through massive parameterisations that turn the learned dynamics into a black box. Here, we introduce quantum-compressed machine learning (QCML), which resolves this tension by compressing the latent propagator of a flow surrogate from $524{,}288$ trainable parameters to no more than $8$. This parameter reduction brings the learned dynamical law to the parameter scale of a physical constitutive relation rather than a black-box neural network, making the surrogate directly interpretable and controllable without sacrificing expressivity. The compression is realised by a structured quantum circuit whose unitary propagator constrains the latent spectrum to the unit circle exactly and by construction, replacing exponential error growth with linear accumulation over autoregressive rollouts. Classical regularisation only approximates this constraint: even a quantum-inspired classical baseline penalised towards unitarity collapses within one Lyapunov time on turbulent channel flow, whereas QCML remains stable over the full rollout. Shared phase and coupling angles parameterising the circuit correspond directly to modal frequencies and inter-mode interactions, giving the learned dynamics a physical interpretation in spectral space. On two patient-specific cardiovascular benchmarks, the structured QCML propagator matches the predictive accuracy of its classical counterpart on surface pressure spectra, pressure drop, and wall shear stress. These results establish QCML as a working component of scientific machine learning and a concrete contribution towards practical quantum advantage in real-world prediction.

Developing autonomous hydraulic excavators is constrained by limited access to physical machines and the high cost of real-world experimentation. This paper proposes a simulation-to-real framework for learning a system-level digital surrogate using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Instead of modeling internal dynamics, the excavator is treated as an input-output operator, and the surrogate is trained to reproduce its closed-loop behavior under identical control inputs. The approach is first validated in a MuJoCo simulation environment and then transferred to a real excavator. To address measurement inconsistencies in real-world data, a consistency-aware state estimation method based on adaptive Kalman filtering is introduced. Experimental results demonstrate that the learned surrogate achieves high fidelity in both angular velocity and long-horizon trajectory reproduction under closed-loop autoregressive evaluation. These results confirm that the proposed model can serve as a drop-in surrogate for both simulation and physical systems, enabling scalable and efficient development of excavation automation algorithms.

We study the online binary sequential calibration problem. A recent breakthrough by \citet{dagan2024breaking} overcomes the classical $T^{2/3}$ barrier for calibration error. Building on this result, we present an efficient randomized forecaster that achieves an expected calibration error $O(T^{2/3-\varepsilon})$ for some constant $\varepsilon>0$. Our forecaster combines the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure \citep{dagan2024breaking} with an outer Blackwell-style correction layer. The \textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure controls calibration with respect to a surrogate sequence of conditional-mean estimates, while the correction layer controls the additional error incurred when these surrogates are used to approximate the true outcomes. The analysis decomposes the total calibration error into the surrogate calibration error and the residual discrepancy between the surrogate sequence and the true outcomes. The former is bounded by the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} guarantee in \citet{dagan2024breaking}, and the latter is controlled using a quadratic potential argument together with the sparsity of the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} forecaster.

LLM-based assistants transmit user queries verbatim to third-party API endpoints that lie outside the user's audit or control. When those queries contain personally identifiable information (PII), the data persists on remote infrastructure subject to breach, subpoena, or policy change. Placeholder redaction (the prevailing mitigation) suppresses PII at the cost of semantic coherence, producing structurally degraded queries and correspondingly degraded responses. We present SurrogateShield, a client-side proxy that substitutes detected PII with locally generated, type-consistent surrogate values prior to transmission and restores originals in the response. No real PII crosses the network boundary. Detection runs through a three-stage cascade (PatternScan, EntityTrace, and ContextGuard) covering 22 PII types and quasi-identifier combinations grounded in Sweeney's k-anonymity framework. Surrogate-to-original mappings are sealed in an AES-256-GCM encrypted per-conversation ShadowMap that never leaves the device. Evaluations on a 1,124-query corpus demonstrate that the cascade reliably detects PII, achieving an overall F1 score of 98.87%. Surrogate substitution substantially outperforms placeholder redaction in semantic utility, yielding a 13.26 pp improvement in BERTScore (roberta-large), from 81.59% to 94.85%. Within this corpus, the local pipeline restricted real PII transmission across all tested query types; in a 100-query adversarial trial, a prompted LLM adversary recovered no original values from surrogate-substituted messages.

Input Diversity (DI), a random resize and pad applied at each attack iteration, is a near-default ingredient of transfer-based attacks, widely assumed to improve transferability. We show this assumption is regime-dependent and, for adversarially trained surrogates, often reversed. Holding the attack fixed and varying only the surrogate, raising the DI probability improves transfer from standard surrogates but degrades it from robust ones: the two response curves separate like a pair of scissors, a pattern we call the Scissors Effect. On ImageNet, blind DI costs a robust source 10.3 percentage points of attack success across four architecturally diverse targets; the effect is several times smaller at 32x32. Direct measurement supports a bias-variance account: DI displaces the gradient by a comparable amount on both groups but reduces its variance only where the gradient is noisy, and robust surrogates have little noise left to average away. A gradient-consistency probe, frozen and hashed before the runs, predicts the sign of the effect on seven unseen surrogates, and we report where it fails alongside where it works. The practical consequence holds independently of the mechanism: leaving DI enabled by default understates the attack a robust surrogate can mount, and so overstates the robustness of the model being evaluated. Code: https://github.com/Avalon-S/ScissorsEffect.

Co-design of legged robots with elastic elements is challenging due to the non-differentiability of contact dynamics and mechanism engagement. This paper presents SurGE, a framework that computes surrogate gradients of the design objective through a differentiable pipeline consisting of a kinodynamic single-rigid-body (Kino-SRB) model and a design-aware control policy, and injects them into CMA-ES via mean shift with cosine-annealed step decay. On a 4-DOF design space of a hopping robot with unidirectional parallel spring, SurGE achieves 6 times lower cross-seed standard deviation and 18% tighter population concentration compared to vanilla CMA-ES, while matching or improving the best objective. Hardware experiments on a 2D design subspace show that, starting from a hand-tuned initial design, SurGE reduces the design objective by 37.65% on hardware, with the improvement trend identified in simulation transferring consistently to the physical system. SurGE provides the potential to accelerate non-differentiable co-design problems in legged robots via surrogate model gradients.

AI-driven engineering workflows face particular challenges in crash safety design: unlike aerodynamics, crash events involve highly nonlinear contact dynamics, material nonlinearity, and discrete state transitions that are difficult to capture with data-driven surrogate models. To the best of our knowledge, we present the first foundation model--orchestrated workflow for crash safety design that enables surrogate-assisted exploration for pedestrian protection, reducing evaluation time from hours per CAE simulation to seconds. The workflow integrates four components: (1) a surrogate trained on CAE crash simulations to predict pedestrian leg injury metrics from design parameters, achieving an average $R^2=0.87$ and providing distribution-free conformal prediction intervals; (2) multiobjective evolutionary search (NSGA-II) to discover diverse feasible parameter sets under user-specified constraints; (3) a morphing-based geometry generator that maps parameters to topology-preserving 3D shapes; and (4) a natural-language interface in which an LLM orchestrates the workflow and a vision--language model supports semantic comparison of generated designs. In an automotive front-bumper case study, the workflow produces 35 distinct safety-compliant alternatives from a single exploration, a process that would require weeks with conventional CAE iteration. These results suggest that foundation models can serve as integration layers between ML surrogates and physics-based simulation, helping bring AI capabilities to safety-critical engineering domains.

This chapter discusses how a data-driven machine learning approach can reproduce key aspects of the physical behavior of multiphase flows in complex geological formations. We propose an end-to-end graph neural surrogate tailored to CO$_2$ plume migration forecasting in geological storage. The method is evaluated on the SPE11A benchmark, a well-known industry test case designed to assess CO$_2$ storage scenarios and characterized by sharp gas-water interfaces, strong advective transport, and rapid convective mixing with fingering development. The benchmark is reformulated as a graph in which nodes represent computational cells and edges encode transmissibility-based interactions enriched with geometric attributes. Directional transport arising from grid geometry, permeability contrasts, and geological heterogeneity is captured through an anisotropic message-passing mechanism, where interaction weights are computed via geometry-conditioned edge embeddings, biasing message aggregation toward physically relevant transport directions. Temporal evolution is modeled in latent space using an autoregressive residual formulation trained with multi-step supervision. The proposed model produces competitive forecasts of gas saturation and liquid-phase density, which are key indicators for CO$_2$ storage monitoring, with cumulative errors that remain moderate over extended forecasting horizons.

Organizations and researchers show increasing interest in using large language models (LLMs) in place of human participants in A/B tests, in the hope of experimenting faster and at lower cost. We study when a treatment effect estimated on LLM outcomes can recover the effect for the human population of interest. Distributional equivalence between LLM and human outcomes would make any standard estimator valid but is unrealistic. We therefore develop a statistical framework that adapts surrogate endpoint theory to LLMs, showing that calibrating LLM outcomes to human outcomes identifies the average treatment effect under surrogacy and comparability conditions that are jointly weaker than distributional equivalence. We present a falsification test for surrogacy and a bound on the worst-case bias from limited overlap between the LLM and human samples. We further show that the stochasticity inherent to LLMs can weaken surrogacy for identification while also introducing bias and variance during estimation, but that using an average over multiple LLM draws per unit as the surrogate mitigates these issues. Simulations validate the results, and an empirical application to the Upworthy Research Archive dataset shows that raw LLM outputs recover only 39% of the human treatment effect while nonparametric calibration closes the gap. A central takeaway is that A/B testing on LLM responses is correct only by assumption, whereas A/B testing on humans is correct by design, and that the required assumptions are hardest to justify precisely where LLMs promise the greatest benefit. We discuss the choice of LLM, prompting, and temperature as design variables, the compounded challenge posed by long-term outcomes, and how to size human pilot studies for validation.

Data-driven PDE surrogates are trained with data produced by numerical PDE solvers. However, when the surrogate's goal is to generalize across a wide range of PDE configurations (e.g., initial conditions and physical coefficients), generating a representative training set is non-trivial. Uniform sampling of configuration parameters often under-represents trajectories exhibiting challenging dynamics, leading to high prediction errors and large error variance in the trained surrogate. Online training, where data generation and surrogate training are coupled, offers a natural advantage by allowing solver parameters to be steered on-the-fly. To efficiently exploit this capability, we introduce Online Generative Active Sampling (OGAS), an active learning method that reactively learns the relationship between configuration parameters and surrogate performance to control the sampling distribution. OGAS trains a fast diffusion model in parallel to the surrogate to act as a conditional sampler, mapping a surrogate-derived difficulty signal (e.g., loss or uncertainty) to configuration parameters. By actively drawing target signals from a prior biased toward high difficulty, OGAS continuously steers data generation toward challenging regimes without delaying the training workflow. We evaluate OGAS across 2D PDEs with distinct challenging dynamics (Kuramoto-Sivashinsky, Navier-Stokes, Gray-Scott) and up to 308 parameters, using multiple surrogate architectures. Across all settings, OGAS consistently improves tail statistics, yielding substantial reductions in errors above the 99th percentile and overall error dispersion compared to uniform sampling. While prioritizing challenging trajectories introduces a trade-off with average error, OGAS effectively ensures worst-case reliability of trained surrogates with negligible wall-time overhead.

While Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) provides high-fidelity flow fields for optimizing indoor environments, its computational cost limits rapid exploration. To solve this problem generative surrogates offer better distribution modeling than deterministic networks, but iterative sampling is slow. To enable high-quality, single-pass generation, we adapt the novel generative drifting framework to fluid mechanics. We introduce a conditional architecture that performs drifting in a learned VAE latent space and uses label-aware masking to align generated samples with their boundary conditions. Our label-conditioned model matches iterative diffusion in accuracy and flow consistency while running two orders of magnitude faster. Additionally, we propose a spatial-conditioning variant that establishes a promising path towards generalization to unseen geometries. Ultimately, conditional drifting serves as a highly efficient alternative to diffusion based approaches, unlocking real-time CFD surrogates where inference speed is critical.

Offline multi-objective optimization (Offline MOO) seeks Pareto-optimal designs from static datasets without additional environment interactions. Existing generative methods typically guide sampling with external surrogate or preference models, which adds training complexity and may provide unreliable guidance. We propose ParetoPilot, a plug-and-play method that guides designs to Pareto front at inference time using a pre-trained conditional diffusion model without any surrogate. ParetoPilot introduces an Infer-Perturb-Guide (IPG) engine within the reverse diffusion process. IPG first infers the individual conditional target for each sample in the batch by aligning its conditional and unconditional predictions. It then perturbs these targets collectively across the batch, balancing convergence toward the Pareto front and diversity among samples. Finally, the engine guides the generative trajectory toward the Pareto front by injecting these perturbed targets via standard Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). Experiments on 51 tasks demonstrate that ParetoPilot achieves the best overall ranking among 16 methods and competitive hypervolume improvement.

Neural operator surrogates (NO) approximate PDE solutions orders of magnitude faster than numerical solvers, but suffer from spectral bias: high-frequency content is systematically attenuated, limiting reliability where fine-scale structure matters. Sparse sensor measurements of the field are often available too, offering pointwise accuracy without spectral distortion but covering only a small fraction of the domain. We address this by treating NO predictions as auxiliary observations in a diffusion posterior sampling framework. Our method, FreqNO-DPS (https://github.com/niccoloperrone/FreqNO-DPS), combines an unconditional score-based diffusion prior, trained on high-fidelity simulations, with diffusion posterior sampling (DPS) conditioned on sparse observations and guided by a frozen neural operator. Naive integration reintroduces the surrogate's spectral bias; we resolve this with a closed-form, spectrally shaped guidance score that weights the surrogate by its frequency-dependent accuracy and needs no denoiser backpropagation. A distribution-free analysis bounds the approximation error across the frequency-diffusion-time plane and shows the guidance's frequency dependence is preserved regardless of distributional assumptions. On 3D elastic wavefield prediction at 5% and 2% sensor coverage, the method reaches near-zero spectral bias across all bands, where both the surrogate and sensor-only DPS show systematic high-frequency attenuation. Isotropic guidance, the natural baseline, improves pointwise accuracy but carries the bias into the posterior nearly intact, confirming that frequency-dependent calibration is essential, not merely beneficial. The framework needs only paired surrogate/reference data and exploits no problem-specific structure beyond the residual's approximate spectral diagonality, verifiable for new surrogates via the coherence diagnostic we provide.

GPU kernels are the workhorse of modern deep learning, and optimizing them (via evolutionary search or coding agents) usually requires repeated measurement on target hardware. While these measurements provide the ground-truth signal necessary for kernel search, they are costly, because each evaluation of a kernel requires compilation and repeated execution on a GPU. As improvements in LLM inference reduce the cost of writing novel kernels and LLM-driven searches scale to large search budgets, on-device evaluation becomes a bottleneck. To address this, we study how LLMs can serve as selective GPU surrogates for kernel evaluation, by forecasting the performance of proposed kernels. A useful surrogate should be accurate, and it should be selective, by knowing when it could be wrong, and deferring to the GPU. To evaluate surrogates, we measure whether their forecasts are accurate, calibrated, and practically useful for recovering fast kernels under limited GPU-measurement budgets. Next, we study whether reinforcement learning can improve forecast accuracy and confidence calibration. Our experiments demonstrate that LLMs can accurately forecast relative kernel performance, that their utility can be improved through reinforcement learning. Used inside a kernel search, the surrogate lets the search consider several times as many candidates under the same GPU evaluation budget, and that leads to finding faster kernels than an equal-budget baseline. These results suggest that LLMs can play a broader role in kernel optimization, by acting as virtual models of a GPU rather than solely as kernel generators for search.

Learning-based surrogates for partial differential equations have recently matched the accuracy of classical solvers while achieving orders-of-magnitude speedups, predominantly in fluid settings and structured geometries. In contrast, robust surrogates for deformable solids remain underexplored, despite the presence of nonlinear elasticity, plasticity, and transient behavior that challenge standard architectures. We introduce a multigrid graph neural network for solid mechanics that couples an encoder-processor-decoder backbone with a physics-informed coarsening strategy. Instead of downsampling via geometric heuristics, our method scores nodes using a residual-based measure of local physical activity and preferentially retains regions of high strain or stress concentration, allocating multiscale capacity where it is most needed. This preserves long-range interactions through hierarchical message passing while improving stability over long rollouts. We evaluate on multiple datasets covering linear, nonlinear, and transient regimes, and observe consistent gains in accuracy and rollout stability compared to standard sampling baselines. Our results highlight the importance of physics-informed coarsening for scalable surrogate modeling in solid mechanics.

Generative machine learning has become an essential tool in theoretical and experimental physics, especially in the context of fast surrogates and density estimators. In this work, we first introduce the underlying framework of modern generative networks and then discuss challenges in quantifying their accuracy, precision, and statistical power.

This work explores a dynamics-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) as a data-driven surrogate for computationally intensive Earth system simulations. Focusing on multivariate time series describing global ocean transport, we demonstrate the surrogate's ability to forecast tip events across thousands of time steps. The data involve up to 21 non-stationary time series in addition to static covariates describing free parameters and initial conditions. Modifications to the architecture and objective function yield a surrogate that anticipates the timing of Atlantic and Pacific collapses to high fidelity and captures the stochastic uncertainty in transition timing across ensemble predictions. The learned surrogate achieves a 465x computational speedup over the numerical simulator while maintaining differentiability with respect to parameters and initial conditions.

Developing effective surrogates (performance predictors) for Neural Architecture Search (NAS) typically requires expensive fine-tuning or the engineering of complex representations. We propose a low-cost embedding strategy that leverages the inductive bias of Language Models (LMs) to eliminate these overheads. By representing architectures as PyTorch class definition text, we demonstrate that off-the-shelf LMs act as competitive feature extractors without NAS-specialized fine-tuning. The final predictor is constructed by passing the extracted Code-Oriented LM Embeddings (COLE) through a lightweight regression head. We also investigate strategies to improve embedding quality and utilization. Our experiments on the NAS-Bench-201 and einspace search spaces reveal that raw code inputs yield higher predictive performance than other text-based encodings (e.g., ONNX-to-text encodings) when using frozen LMs. We also observe COLE drives superior surrogate-assisted search using the BANANAS algorithm in NAS-Bench-201. When optimizing for CIFAR-100 performance, replacing structural path encodings with COLE for architecture representation allows for a 34% decrease in the evaluation budget required to reach within 1% of the fittest architecture in the search space (by test accuracy). As any neural architecture can be represented as code, these findings establish COLE as a versatile and efficient foundation for advancing NAS.

Personally Identifiable Information (PII) redaction usually replaces detected entities with placeholder tokens such as [PERSON], destroying the downstream utility of the redacted text for retrieval and Named Entity Recognition (NER) training. We propose a fully on-device pipeline that substitutes PII with consistent, type-preserving fake values: a 1.5 B mixture-of-experts token classifier (openai/privacy-filter) detects spans, a 1-bit Bonsai-1.7B Small Language Model (SLM) proposes contextual surrogates for names, addresses, and dates, and a rule-based generator (faker) handles patterned fields. We report a prompting finding more important than the quantization choice: with naive fixed three-shot demonstrations, the 1-bit SLM regurgitates demonstration outputs verbatim regardless of input; 1.58-bit Ternary-Bonsai-1.7B reproduces byte-identical failures, ruling out quantization as the cause. We fix this with locale-conditioned rotating few-shot demonstrations: a character-range heuristic picks a locale-pure pool and a per-input MD5 hash samples three demonstrations. With the fix, 482/482 unique Bonsai-1.7B calls succeed (no echoes) and produce locale-correct surrogates, although the SLM still copies from a small same-locale demonstration pool - a residual narrowness we quantify. On a 2000-document multilingual corpus, hybrid perplexity (PPL) beats faker in all six locales under a multilingual evaluator (XGLM-564M); length preservation is best-of-three in 4 of 6 locales. On downstream NER (400 train / 100 test, English), redact yields F1=0.000, faker 0.656, original 0.960; on a matched 160/40 subset including hybrid, faker (0.506) outperforms hybrid (0.346) at p < 0.001. We report this as an honest negative finding: SLM surrogates produce more natural text but a less varied training distribution, and downstream NER benefits more from variety than from naturalness.

For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods, but most SBI methods assume a black-box data generating process. While these surrogates are exact in the limit of infinite training data, practical scenarios force a strict tradeoff between model quality and simulation cost. In this work, we loosen the black-box assumption of SBI to improve this tradeoff for structured stochastic process models. Specifically, for neural network likelihood surrogates trained via probabilistic classification, we propose to augment the standard binary cross-entropy loss with exact score information $\nabla_θ\log p(x \mid θ)$ and adaptive weighting based on loss gradients. We evaluate our approach on case studies involving network dynamics and spatial processes, demonstrating that our method improves surrogate quality at a drastically lower computational cost than generating more training data. Notably, in some cases, our approach achieves downstream inference performance equivalent to a 10x increase in training data with less than a 1.1x increase in training time.

Surrogate endpoints are used in place of long-term outcomes in randomized experiments when observing the real outcome for a large enough cohort is prohibitively expensive or impractical. A short-term surrogate is good if the result of an experiment using the surrogate is predictive of the result of a hypothetical study using the real outcome. Much attention has been paid to formalizing this property in causal terms, but most criteria are unidentifiable and cannot be turned into practical algorithms for learning surrogate endpoints from data. To address this, we study plug-in composite surrogates, functions of post-treatment variables that may be substituted directly for the primary outcome in a randomized experiment. We propose two methods for learning plug-in surrogates that maximize effect predictiveness, and characterize the possibility of finding endpoints that yield unbiased effect estimates in representative scenarios. Finally, in both synthetic experiments with known effects and in data from a real-world experiment, we find that our method, based on directly modeling the surrogate effect, returns plug-in endpoints more predictive of the primary effect than established methods.

Fast surrogate models for expensive simulations are now essential across the sciences, yet they typically operate as black boxes. We present \texttt{GWAgent}, a large language model (LLM)-based workflow that constructs interpretable analytic surrogates directly from simulation data. Surrogate modeling is well suited to agentic workflows because candidate models can be quantitatively validated against ground-truth simulations at each iteration. As a demonstration, we build a surrogate for gravitational waveforms from eccentric binary black hole mergers. We show that providing the agent with a physics-informed domain ansatz substantially improves output model accuracy. The resulting analytic surrogate attains a median Advanced LIGO mismatch of $6.9\times10^{-4}$ together with an $\sim 8.4\times$ speedup in waveform evaluation, surpassing both symbolic regression and conventional machine learning baselines. Beyond producing an accurate model, the workflow identifies compact physical structure from the learned representation. As an astrophysical application, we use \texttt{GWAgent} to analyze the eccentricity of GW200129 and infer $e_{20\mathrm{Hz}}=0.099^{+0.063}_{-0.044}$. These results show that validation-constrained agentic workflows can produce accurate, fast, and interpretable surrogates for scientific simulations and inference.

Federated Learning remains highly susceptible to backdoor attacks--malicious clients inject targeted behaviours into the global model. Existing defenses suffer from substantial false-positive rates under realistic non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) data, incorrectly flagging benign clients and degrading model accuracy even when adversaries are correctly identified. We present FedSurrogate, a novel backdoor defense that addresses this limitation by combining bidirectional gradient alignment filtering with layer-adaptive anomaly detection. FedSurrogate performs selective clustering on security-critical layers identified via directional divergence analysis, concentrating the detection signal on a low-dimensional subspace. A bidirectional soft-filtering stage screens trusted clients for residual contamination while rescuing false positives from suspects, substantially reducing misclassifications under heterogeneous conditions. Rather than removing confirmed malicious updates, FedSurrogate replaces them with downscaled surrogate updates from structurally similar benign clients, preserving gradient diversity while neutralising adversarial influence. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that FedSurrogate maintains false-positive rates below 10% across all datasets and attack types, compared to 31-32% for the nearest comparably effective baseline, while achieving superior main-task accuracy and maintaining attack success rates below 2.1% across all tested datasets and attack types under challenging non-IID settings.

We introduce HyCOP, a modular framework that learns parametric PDE solution operators by composing simple modules (advection, diffusion, learned closures, boundary handling) in a query-conditioned way. Rather than learning a monolithic map, HyCOP learns a policy over short programs - which module to apply and for how long - conditioned on regime features and state statistics. Modules may be numerical sub-solvers or learned components, enabling hybrid surrogates evaluated at arbitrary query times without autoregressive rollout. Across diverse PDE benchmarks, HyCOP produces interpretable programs, delivers order-of-magnitude OOD improvements over monolithic neural operators, and supports modular transfer through dictionary updates (e.g., boundary swaps, residual enrichment). Our theory characterizes expressivity and gives an error decomposition that separates composition error from module error and doubles as a process-level diagnostic.

We study long-context balanced entropic optimal transport (OT) attention on TPU hardware through a stopped-base, fixed-depth tail-refinement surrogate. After a stopped $T$-step Sinkhorn solve, we unroll a short refinement tail and differentiate that surrogate exactly. For the reported $R=2$ TPU path, the backward pass contains four staircase plan factors. We prove an exact one-reference-tile schedule: the $R=2$ score cotangent is a single reference plan tile times an explicit modifier field built from vector cotangents and dual differences. This yields block-wise cost $O((T+R)LW)$, $O(Ld)$ input storage, and $O(L)$ additional HBM usage for fixed head dimension $d$ and band width $W$ on the balanced fixed-support path. We also formalize the current \texttt{dustbin_block} path as the same unit-target surrogate on an augmented support, so the adjoint schedule lifts to the single-active-dustbin path used in our TPU runs; this bridge is algebraic and does not claim a general KL-unbalanced or arbitrary-capacity gap model. We provide a local surrogate-bias bound, an a posteriori bias certificate, and a projective contraction certificate for strictly positive active blocks. On synthetic masked problems, the optimized kernel matches exact autodiff of the same centered surrogate to within $10^{-5}$--$10^{-10}$. On TPU v6e-8, a four-configuration Pfam screen completes end-to-end, and a promoted balanced $R=2$ run sustains roughly $8.5$ examples per second through a three-hour budget, reaching step $1437$. Held-out Pfam test shards improve reconstruction from $5.57$ to $2.05$ and sparse CE from $5.53$ to $5.30$ relative to step $0$, with CE logged diagnostically rather than optimized directly; target-barycenter alignment metrics do not materially improve, and a deterministic diagonal reference remains stronger on those metrics.

Identity teacher forcing (ITF) enables stable training of deterministic recurrent surrogates for chaotic dynamical systems and has been highly effective for dynamical systems reconstruction (DSR) with recurrent neural networks (RNNs), including interpretable almost-linear RNNs (AL-RNNs). However, as an intervention-based prediction loss (and thus a generalized Bayes update), teacher forcing need not match the free-running model's marginal likelihood geometry. We compare the objective-induced curvatures of ITF and marginal likelihood in a probabilistic switching augmentation of AL-RNNs, estimating ambiguity-aware observed information via Louis' identity. In the switching setting studied here, conditioning on a single forced regime path (as ITF does) inflates curvature, while marginal likelihood curvature is reduced by a missing-information correction when multiple switching explanations remain plausible. In Lorenz-63 experiments, windowed evidence fine-tuning improves held-out evidence but can degrade dynamical quantities of interest (QoIs) relative to ITF-pretrained models.

We present Cardiac Stability Theory (CST), an axiomatically grounded framework formally defining cardiovascular health as a stability margin around a cardiac dynamical attractor. From four axioms we derive the Cardiac Stability Index (CSI), a composite scalar in [0,1] integrating the largest Lyapunov exponent, recurrence determinism, and signal entropy via time-delay embedding. The ECG-based model (CSISurrogateV2, CNN-Transformer) achieves $R^2=0.8788$, MAE$=0.0234$ on PTB-XL (21,799 recordings). We extend CSI to smartphone PPG via Complementary Domain Transfer (CDT): CSISurrogateV2 generates pseudo-labels for the BUT PPG dataset (48 recordings, 12 subjects), training TinyCSINet (122,849 parameters), achieving MAE$=0.0557$, $ρ=0.660$ on the held-out test set ($n=1065$ windows) at ${<}30$ ms mobile latency. CDT is validated on BIDMC, Welltory, and RWS-PPG. Paired validation on 5,035 BIDMC windows yields $r=0.454$ ($ρ=0.485$, $p<10^{-295}$), confirming correlated cardiac stability across modalities. CSI is negatively correlated with age (slope $= -0.000225$ CSI/year, PTB-XL), discriminates atrial fibrillation from normal sinus rhythm (AUROC$=0.89$), and is robust under Perturbation Invariance Training (max AUC drop 1.65%). We derive HeartSpan, a longitudinal stability metric relative to population age norms, enabling continuous non-invasive cardiac monitoring from commodity smartphones for longevity tracking and cardiac risk stratification.

Dataset condensation constructs compact synthetic datasets that retain the training utility of large real-world datasets, enabling efficient model development and potentially supporting downstream research in governed domains such as healthcare. Trajectory matching (TM) is a widely used condensation approach that supervises synthetic data using changes in model parameters observed during training on real data, yet the structure of this supervision signal remains poorly understood. In this paper, we provide a geometric characterisation of trajectory matching, showing that a fixed synthetic dataset can only reproduce a limited span of such training-induced parameter changes. When the resulting supervision signal is spectrally broad, this creates a conditional representability bottleneck. Motivated by this mismatch, we propose Bezier Trajectory Matching (BTM), which replaces SGD trajectories with quadratic Bezier trajectory surrogates between initial and final model states. These surrogates are optimised to reduce average loss along the path while replacing broad SGD-derived supervision with a more structured, lower-rank signal that is better aligned with the optimisation constraints of a fixed synthetic dataset, and they substantially reduce trajectory storage. Experiments on five clinical datasets demonstrate that BTM consistently matches or improves upon standard trajectory matching, with the largest gains in low-prevalence and low-synthetic-budget settings. These results indicate that effective trajectory matching depends on structuring the supervision signal rather than reproducing stochastic optimisation paths.

We prove error bounds for operator surrogates of solution operators for partial differential and boundary integral equations on families of domains which are diffeomorphic to one common reference (or latent) domain $D_{ref}$. The pullback of the PDE to $D_{ref}$ via affine-parametric shape encoding produces a collection of holomorphic parametric PDEs on $D_{ref}$. Sufficient conditions for (uniformly with respect to the parameter) well-posedness are given, implying existence, uniqueness and stability of parametric solution families on $D_{ref}$. We illustrate the abstract hypotheses by reviewing recent holomorphy results for a suite of elliptic and parabolic PDEs. Quantified parametric holomorphy implies existence of finite-parametric, discrete approximations of the parametric solution families with convergence rates in terms of the number $N$ of parameters. We obtain constructive proofs of existence of Neural and Spectral Operator surrogates for the shape-to-solution maps with error bounds and convergence rate guarantees uniform on the collection of admissible shapes. We admit principal-component shape encoders and frame decoders. Our results support in particular the (empirically reported) ability of neural operators to realize data-to-solution maps for elliptic and parabolic PDEs and BIEs that generalize across parametric families of shapes.

Generative AI can convert uncertainty into authoritative-seeming verdicts, intensifying the hypersuasive force of automated speech and displacing the justificatory work on which democratic epistemic agency depends. As a corrective, I propose a Brouwer-inspired assertibility constraint for responsible AI: in high-stakes domains, systems may assert or deny claims only if they can provide a publicly inspectable and contestable certificate of entitlement; otherwise they must return Undetermined. This constraint yields a three-status interface semantics (Asserted, Denied, Undetermined) in which statuses mark entitlement to categorical speech rather than truth values of the underlying world-claim. The semantics cleanly separates internal entitlement from public standing while connecting them via the certificate as a boundary object. It also produces a time-indexed entitlement profile that is stable under numerical refinement yet revisable as the public record changes. I operationalize the constraint through decision-layer gating of threshold and argmax decisions, using internal witnesses (e.g., sound bounds or separation margins where available, and contestable surrogates otherwise) and an output contract with reason-coded abstentions. A design lemma shows that any total, certificate-sound binary interface yields witnessed decidability of the deployed predicate on its declared scope, so Undetermined is not a tunable reject option but a mandatory status whenever no adequate forcing witness is available. By making outputs answerable to challengeable warrants rather than confidence alone, the paper aims to preserve epistemic agency against the persuasive pull of automated speech in public justification.

Generalization bounds for deep learning models are typically vacuous, not computable or restricted to specific model classes. In this paper, we tackle these issues by providing new disagreement-based certificates for the gap between the true risk of any two predictors. We then bound the true risk of the predictor of interest via a surrogate model that enjoys tight generalization guarantees, and by evaluating our disagreement bound on an unlabeled dataset.We empirically demonstrate the tightness of the obtained certificates and showcase the versatility of the approach by training surrogate models leveraging three different frameworks: sample compression, model compression and PAC-Bayes theory. Importantly, such guarantees are achieved without modifying the target model, nor adapting the training procedure to the generalization framework.

Quantum circuit design is a key bottleneck for practical quantum machine learning on complex, real-world data. We present an automated framework that discovers and refines variational quantum circuits (VQCs) using graph-based Bayesian optimization with a graph neural network (GNN) surrogate. Circuits are represented as graphs and mutated and selected via an expected improvement acquisition function informed by surrogate uncertainty with Monte Carlo dropout. Candidate circuits are evaluated with a hybrid quantum-classical variational classifier on the next generation firewall telemetry and network internet of things (NF-ToN-IoT-V2) cybersecurity dataset, after feature selection and scaling for quantum embedding. We benchmark our pipeline against an MLP-based surrogate, random search, and greedy GNN selection. The GNN-guided optimizer consistently finds circuits with lower complexity and competitive or superior classification accuracy compared to all baselines. Robustness is assessed via a noise study across standard quantum noise channels, including amplitude damping, phase damping, thermal relaxation, depolarizing, and readout bit flip noise. The implementation is fully reproducible, with time benchmarking and export of best found circuits, providing a scalable and interpretable route to automated quantum circuit discovery.

We establish a formal connection between the decades-old surrogate outcome model in biostatistics and economics and the emerging field of prediction-powered inference (PPI). The connection treats predictions from pre-trained models, prevalent in the age of AI, as cost-effective surrogates for expensive outcomes. Building on the surrogate outcomes literature, we develop recalibrated prediction-powered inference, a more efficient approach to statistical inference than existing PPI proposals. Our method departs from the existing proposals by using flexible machine learning techniques to learn the optimal ``imputed loss'' through a step we call recalibration. Importantly, the method always improves upon the estimator that relies solely on the data with available true outcomes, even when the optimal imputed loss is estimated imperfectly, and it achieves the smallest asymptotic variance among PPI estimators if the estimate is consistent. Computationally, our optimization objective is convex whenever the loss function that defines the target parameter is convex. We further analyze the benefits of recalibration, both theoretically and numerically, in several common scenarios where machine learning predictions systematically deviate from the outcome of interest. We demonstrate significant gains in effective sample size over existing PPI proposals via three applications leveraging state-of-the-art machine learning/AI models.

We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is provided by fitting the base model again to the data from which the error prediction is removed (subtracted), yielding a difference in the model parameters which can be interpreted. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the potential of the method to discover and explain underlying patterns in the data.